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The US Expands Sanctions on Iran While Strait Reopening Talks Continue: Under the Geopolitical Pulse, Who Is the True Asset Pricing Anchor?
The US-Iran game has entered a familiar rhythm of fighting while negotiating. The US is intensifying financial sanctions while simultaneously engaging in talks on joint navigation management for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, crude oil prices have retraced some of their risk premium.
Many friends react to geopolitical news by hastily adjusting their positions. But I have always believed that the impact paths of geopolitical events on various assets are not on the same dimension.
If the Strait of Hormuz ultimately returns to stable navigation, crude oil will be the first to desensitize, as spot prices and geopolitical risk discounts are the most direct. Next is gold; although the geopolitical premium will partially fade, the hard logic of global central banks de-dollarizing their reserves remains, so the retracement is relatively controllable. As for BTC, geopolitical situations have never been its core pricing anchor; global macro liquidity and real interest rate expectations are the fundamental determinants of its long-term trend.
In the face of repeated geopolitical tug-of-war, the worst thing is to chase every breaking news for trading. Short-term violent fluctuations in crude oil may temporarily push up inflation expectations, but as long as there is no sustained supply cliff, such pulses are often quickly digested by the market. My strategy has always been to treat geopolitical volatility as a stress test, keep the base position unchanged, and focus attention on the evolution of medium- to long-term liquidity cycles.
Faced with frequent reversals in geopolitical news, do you frequently adjust your positions or choose to stick to your established allocation strategy?
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 One month ago, ETH was the most heavily criticized, and one month later, which is today, $ETH is still the most praised, because at the price of 2451, it dropped less than 1%, steady as an old dog!
ETF inflows have been continuous, with $697M last week, the best week this year. Fidelity's ETH ETF opened 100% staking, so institutions holding ETH can still earn 4.2% annualized yield—who wouldn't do that.
On-chain data shows net outflows from exchanges for 5 consecutive days, with 18,700 $ETH withdrawn. Whales are accumulating. Addresses holding over 10,000 ETH increased their holdings by 124,000 ETH in the past 7 days, about $306 million. It's not retail buying; big money is building positions.
Last year when ETH dropped to $2,100, several DeFi people I know started buying ETH with treasury funds. The logic was simple: DeFi protocols earning ETH is not as good as directly holding and waiting for appreciation. At the time, I thought they were crazy, but now it looks like they were right. The market is never linear; those who wait don't lose.
In terms of trading, don't be bearish if $2,400 support holds. Consider adding positions if it pulls back to $2,300. The resistance at $2,550 is the August pressure level. The mid-term target is $3,000. Don't compare ETH's ups and downs with BTC; the big brother and the second brother each have their own rhythm!
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Iran risk now has two competing trades. Tougher US sanctions could squeeze oil supply, lift inflation and tighten dollar liquidity. Diplomacy could do the opposite by reopening Hormuz and stripping the risk premium from crude and gold.$BTC BTC sits awkwardly between both outcomes. Lower tensions reduce haven demand but improve the liquidity backdrop. The next move may depend less on geopolitics itself and more on whether#BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks Imagine, this time Starship recovery took 40 days
At this pace, only nine Starship launches can be done in a year
Musk said Falcon will be phased out, and all future launches will be Starship
Starship hasn't even stopped on the launch pad or landed on the ground yet
So completing the first launch pad recovery for Starship is very difficult, from 0 to 1
Secondly, the launch site in Louisiana has already been complained about by locals
The reason is that the noise from launches is driving people 20 kilometers away crazy
Musk isn't trying to phase out Falcon, but seeing China's rocket technology
If nothing is done, the promises can't be kept. So much money has been burned, what now?
How to give shareholders an explanation? $SPCX is still overvalued at present
Without any measures, the stock price can't hold up, understand?
#NVIDIA持有SpaceX约210亿美元，AI协同受关注 Today's market was like a freshly filled glass of sparkling water—bubbles rising but quietly fading after a while. Did you feel that after BTC reached 80,000 and ETH hit back 2,500, that "one more push" momentum suddenly slowed down? Let me start with my real feelings. Last night, when I was watching the market, the price was still rising, but my attention was no longer on the gains, but on the sell orders quietly thickening in the order book. The faster the price rises, the more you have to ask: Who will buy it? This wave of rallying looks like a price breakout, but in reality, it's trading with the expectation that "ETF funds are still flowing in." Last week, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed about $1.92 billion, and Ethereum also saw $697 million in inflow. The money is indeed coming in, and the direction is indeed bullish, but the question is, is this money here to build positions or to carry the sedan chair? I think the most subtle point in the market right now isn't whether it rises or not, but whether the "momentum" is sufficient. Prices can be pushed up by sentiment, but holding firm requires real buying orders to digest profit-taking. BTC is currently holding in the 79,000 to 80,000 range, while ETH must work hard to turn 2500 from resistance into a floor. As long as these two levels are not lost, this pullback is just a halfway pause, not a curtain call. But I must remind myself and you that there are several undiscussed risk points hidden within the bullish structure: - If ETF inflows suddenly turn negative next week, the price will immediately lose its strongest support logic. - Profit-taking positions don't necessarily have to wait for a big dropXRP has indeed surged sharply this week.
But I just saw a piece of data that seems more worth noting than "up 44%."
The 24-hour futures trading volume is about $6.4 billion.
Spot volume is only around $1.2 billion.
In other words, the hottest place for XRP right now is actually in leverage.
And the longs are clearly more than the shorts.
At times like this, I actually feel a bit scared.
Not scared that it will definitely drop.
But scared that if it crashes down, everyone will rush to the exit together.
$XRPIRAN TALKS & CRYPTO
Iran–Oman talks are raising hopes of smoother Strait of Hormuz shipping, helping oil prices cool and easing near-term inflation concerns. Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions on Iran-linked networks keep geopolitical risks elevated.
$BTC is near $79K, while $ETH holds around $2.5K. If diplomacy continues, lower oil prices and reduced risk premiums could support crypto sentiment.
However, renewed tensions or tougher sanctions could quickly trigger volatility. The difference in volatility between BTC, ETH, and SOL is actually this big
In recent days, during a range-bound market, under the same overall market conditions, I observed BTC fluctuating between 77800 and 80000 with relatively restrained volatility; ETH experienced frequent spikes with significantly larger amplitude; $SOL often swings ±8% in a single day, and the number of contract liquidations has multiplied.
Comparing contract data, SOL's leveraged positions account for a much higher proportion than BTC and ETH, so even small capital inflows or outflows amplify volatility.
I once used BTC's trading logic to trade SOL with the same stop-loss range; BTC was fine, but SOL immediately wiped me out.
In the same market conditions, different coins have completely different volatility characteristics, so you can't apply the same parameters to all assets. For highly elastic coins, you must further reduce position size and increase tolerance, otherwise you'll get shaken out repeatedly in a choppy market.
Risk warning: Highly elastic public chain coins have drastic volatility and crowded leverage, with extremely low tolerance for errors, making them unsuitable for regular position operations. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL The crypto market is reacting quite uniquely to the Iran – US developments. Notably, the US has just expanded sanctions against nearly 60 individuals, organizations, and vessels related to Iran, with the new scope also covering digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and maritime transport. However, the market is not responding entirely in the direction of “increased tension = crypto decline.” On the contrary, when Iran and Oman resumed discussions about the maritime corridor at the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices dropped more than 2%, Treasury yields Educated by the short squeeze market, don't easily go against the trend
Recently, the market has been continuously forcing shorts to cover, with a total of $2.7 billion in short positions liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Subjectively, I felt the price had risen too much, so I opened a short on BTC against the trend at a high level, along with small short positions on HYPE and $TRUMP.
Short-term unrealized losses kept expanding, and contract data showed that open short positions were still accumulating, with market makers passively pushing prices higher. Although my logic told me the valuation was high, market sentiment was completely on the bulls' side.
In the end, I painfully stopped losses and exited. Only afterward did I realize: even if you think the price is expensive, as long as the market is still in a short squeeze phase, don't subjectively try to guess the top.
My current rule: during a short squeeze market, do not actively try to short at the top; wait until the market shows continuous volume decline and a liquidation structure reversal before attempting to trade the pullback.
Risk warning: Trend markets have very strong sentiment premiums; trying to pick tops and bottoms against the trend has a very poor risk-reward ratio and is prone to consecutive stop-losses and losses. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL Smart money bottom-fishing signals cannot be directly used to open positions
I really like tracking smart money wallet addresses. Recently, I saw a batch of smart money accumulating ZEC and LINK at low levels, with clear on-chain transfer records. I followed and went all in.
But after entering, I realized that smart money was building positions slowly in more than ten small trades, while I went all in at once. Then the market fluctuated and consolidated; ZEC retraced 14%, LINK pulled back 8%. I couldn’t withstand the volatility and cut losses to exit, and only a few days later did the market start to move up.
On-chain data only shows their purchases, not their overall position or stop-loss levels, nor how many backup bullets they have. BTC and ETH often see whales bottom-fishing, but the market continues to dip afterward.
Whales can endure 20-30% drawdowns; ordinary retail investors cannot. On-chain signals are for reference, not buy instructions. Blindly copying big players’ moves is a common pitfall in trading.
Risk warning: Whales and smart money on-chain behavior involves phased position building and long-term tolerance. Retail investors should not directly follow with heavy positions. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC remains volatile at high levels, holding above 79,000! The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting opens tomorrow, and Wash's debut is the biggest variable — August 26 Cryptocurrency Evening Briefing
Good evening, brothers, BTC has entered a high-level consolidation mode after breaking through $80,000.
Bitcoin once touched $81,237 yesterday, a three-month high. It then retreated to around $79,000 for consolidation. At the time of writing, BTC is about $78,800-79,000, down about 0.8% in 24 hours, but still up 21%-24% over the past week. The market is awaiting this week's biggest macro variable — the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
📊 Market Data
Asset Current Price 24h Change 7d Change Key Changes
BTC ~78,800 -0.8% +21-24% Yesterday's high $81,237
ETH ~2,465 ~-1.5% ~+30% Pulled back after reclaiming 2,500
SOL ~97-98 ~-2% ~+27% Pulled back after breaking 100
📰 Hot Topic 1: Jackson Hole Meeting Opens Tomorrow, Wash's Debut Is the Biggest Variable
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming, USA, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy."
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will speak at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. This will be his first appearance at Jackson Hole since taking office in May and the most important public speech before the Fed's September policy meeting.
What is the market worried about?
Traders are eager to capture signals of the Fed's "reaction function" — US inflation has stubbornly remained above the 2% target for a long time, and federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion.
Since taking office in May, Wash has sharply reduced communication between the Fed and the market, significantly cutting forward guidance. His last appearance after a rate decision triggered a large market sell-off, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to this speech.
Three scenario projections:
· Dovish: If Wash hints at tolerance for rate cuts or pausing the current tightening cycle, BTC may benefit from a risk appetite rebound, pushing toward 83,000-85,000
· Hawkish: If Wash reiterates inflation risks and keeps rate hike options open, it may pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets
· Ambiguous: If Wash continues to avoid forward guidance and repeats old rhetoric, the market may be disappointed, intensifying long-end sell-offs
The market expects Wash is unlikely to release short-term policy signals but more likely to outline the overall reform of the Fed's operational mechanism. Analysts believe Wash will not provide clear commitments for the September meeting, possibly only sending a neutral to hawkish risk management signal.
📰 Hot Topic 2: US Expands Sanctions on Iran, Digital Assets Included in Key Targets
US Treasury Secretary Bassett announced Monday that new US industry sanctions aim to cut off five critical overseas financing channels for Iran, including digital assets, technology, gold trading, aviation, and maritime shipping.
This is the first time the US has explicitly included "digital assets" as a core target in sanctions against Iran, signaling the crypto industry's formal recognition in national-level financial conflicts.
However, geopolitical dynamics have subtly shifted — sources from Pakistan's military and Iran's security agencies revealed that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, including freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, expected to be announced in the coming days.
The ceasefire expectation combined with sanctions has weakened oil prices. But Iran's Foreign Ministry stated Tehran will use all opportunities to counter Washington's economic pressure. The situation remains unclear.
💥 Liquidation Data: Over $7 Billion Short Positions Liquidated in One Week
In the past week, the total short liquidations across the market have exceeded $7 billion. In the past 24 hours, about $621 million in liquidations occurred, with short liquidations around $300 million.
Regarding whale movements, short addresses previously only 2% away from liquidation have closed 559 BTC short positions, losing about $810,000, then reversed to go long by buying 428 BTC (about $34.59 million). The long-short battle remains intense.
💰 ETF Fund Flows: Net Inflows for 7 Consecutive Days
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $314.3 million yesterday, marking seven consecutive trading days of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of $284.4 million, with a historical total net inflow of $62.92 billion.
The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is close to $99 billion. The past week's net inflow reached $1.92 billion, the highest since October 2025.
📊 Key Levels
· BTC: Resistance 81,200-83,000, Support 78,000-78,500, Strong Support 77,000-77,500
· ETH: Resistance 2,530-2,550, Support 2,400-2,420
· SOL: Resistance 103-105, Support 95-96
💡 Summary
BTC is consolidating at high levels after breaking $80,000, still up over 21% in the past week. The Jackson Hole meeting opens tomorrow, and Wash's debut is the biggest variable this week — dovish could push BTC to 83,000-85,000, hawkish could trigger profit-taking. The US has included "digital assets" in sanctions against Iran for the first time, redefining crypto's geopolitical role.
The market will likely remain volatile before the meeting outcome; avoid heavy positions in the middle. It's safer to follow after Wash's speech clarifies direction rather than betting now.
Brothers, what do you think about the Jackson Hole meeting? Let's discuss in the comments.👇#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $ETH Good evening to friends on the planet, I am Daddy. Here's a piece of news: Circle has launched cirBTC, marking its evolution from a single "USD stablecoin issuer" to an "institutional-grade on-chain full-asset financial infrastructure." Its core logic is not simply to recreate a wrapped Bitcoin (Wrapped BTC) on Ethereum, but to build an institutional on-chain credit and clearing loop of "cirBTC (high-quality collateral asset) + USDC (USD liquidity/settlement asset)" based on its own compliance and custody reputation. Strategic Intent and Core Logic Building an Institutional On-Chain Balance Sheet Loop In both traditional and on-chain finance, Bitcoin is the highest quality collateral, while the USD stablecoin (USDC) is the most efficient liquidity carrier. Circle controls both ends, enabling market makers, hedge funds, and prime brokers to complete collateralized lending, fund transfers, and clearing and settlement directly within the Circle Mint system, significantly improving capital turnover efficiency. Laying the Underlying Assets for Its Own Ecosystem (such as the Arc chain) cirBTC initially launches on Ethereum, with future plans to deploy on Circle's underlying infrastructure (such as Arc) and multi-chain networks. Having native compliant BTC collateral is a key piece for Circle to build its own on-chain ecosystem moat. Since the WBTC custody architecture adjustment and governance disputes, market trust in centralized wrapped BTC has declinedThe crypto community has recently been focused on the Federal Reserve, but one risk line is easily overlooked: the Bank of Japan is accelerating its pace of interest rate hikes. A recent Reuters survey shows that 57% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% in September. Meanwhile, the hawkish member Naoki Tamura will represent the Bank of Japan at Jackson Hole, while Governor Kazuo Ueda will not attend this time. Why does this matter for $BTC? Because for many years, there has been an important global funding chain: borrowing low-interest yen ↓ exchanging it for dollars or other currencies ↓ buying US stocks, bonds, crypto, and other risk assets. This is known as the yen carry trade. Once Japan continues to raise rates, the cost of yen financing will increase. If the yen also appreciates, funds that originally borrowed yen to leverage will face exchange rate pressure, and some may choose to close carry trade positions and repay yen-denominated debt. So this is not just Japan's own issue. For crypto, what really matters is not "Japan hikes rates once in September, so BTC will definitely fall." The expectation of a rate hike in September is already quite high; what the market tends to underestimate is that if Japan enters a sustained rate-hiking cycle, the long-standing cheap yen liquidity may gradually shrink. In the past, everyone was used to watching when the Federal Reserve would cut rates or release liquidity again, but if on the other side theETF continues to see inflows, but the market doesn't rise—I finally understand the divergence
Recently, I've been tracking the daily fund reports of BTC and ETH spot ETFs. Clearly, BTC ETFs have had consecutive days of net inflows, and ETH has also seen periodic capital entering, yet the price remains stuck below 80000, repeatedly pressured. SOL and BNB haven't experienced simultaneous surges either.
Checking on-chain data, I found that whales are taking advantage of the ETF bullish news to continuously transfer chips to exchange addresses, cumulatively moving out 4200 BTC over 7 days, which is a high-level phased cash-out. On the contract side, the 24-hour open interest remains high, with long and short positions almost evenly split. No new capital is entering; it's all existing capital competing against each other.
Bullish news doesn't mean an immediate price increase. The institutional buy orders are exactly the chips whales are selling.
I used to rush in whenever I saw good news and suffered losses multiple times when the price dropped after the bullish news landed. Now I understand: fund data must be viewed bidirectionally. Looking only at one-sided inflows can easily mislead the market view. For the market to break through, not only must there be buyers, but selling pressure must also be fully absorbed. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
Grayscale ETF launched, is $ZEC about to take off?
Hold on a moment.
$14.8 million is the trading volume, not net inflow, which doesn’t mean $14.8 million in real cash has actually flowed into ZEC. These two concepts are worlds apart.
This time, ZCSH itself was converted from the original Zcash Trust and also supports continuous subscriptions and redemptions.
So the first day’s trading was lively, indicating market activity.
But how much new capital has truly bought ZEC through the ETF?
We can’t draw conclusions just by looking at the trading volume yet.
This is actually something I’ve always felt is a place where the crypto space is easily misled:
ETF net inflow → bullish
ETF trading volume high → bullish
Institutional buying → bullish
In the end, it all gets simplified to: “Money is coming in, buy quickly.”
But what really matters is whether the money has formed sustained spot demand.
If later the ZEC ETF continues to see net subscriptions, and on-chain privacy transactions and real usage also start to grow, then that’s a more solid capital logic.
So I’m not in a hurry to judge whether ZEC is the next BTC.
Barry Silbert said it’s like “Bitcoin in 2013,” the story is indeed very appealing.
But the story ultimately comes back to one question: is real capital continuously coming in?
Trading volume can easily create hype, but sustained buying creates a trend.For a long time, the market has been pricing $ETH ETH using traditional metrics such as fees, TVL, trading volume, staking scale, and burn volume. However, these indicators only reflect ecosystem activity, capital inflow, and on-chain usage intensity; they are superficial traffic metrics and fundamentally cannot explain the true value of Ethereum's underlying system. This has led to long-term confusion and one-sided understanding in the market's valuation logic of ETH. The true core value of Ethereum does not lie in the amount of transactions or fee levels, but in its irreplaceable systemic credit reliance, which is the VUD value. A large number of stablecoins, RWA assets, Layer 2 ecosystems, and on-chain contract systems ultimately rely on Ethereum's base layer for final confirmation, settlement, state verification, and dispute resolution. Many people mistakenly believe that L2 transaction offloading dilutes ETH's value. In fact, while transaction execution can be migrated, the root of financial credit, final settlement rights, and underlying security verification are extremely difficult to transfer. L2 only handles the execution layer work; the ultimate trust foundation of the entire ecosystem remains firmly bound to Ethereum. At the same time, the PoS mechanism has completely reshaped ETH's value logic. ETH is no longer just a medium for paying Gas fees but is the native slashing security capital of the entire Ethereum network. As the external economic system's dependence on Ethereum continues to grow, the demand for system security rises, providing ETH with long-term structural value support. The future implementation of the crypto world and AI smart contracts will further amplify the scarcity of verifiable public credit. Ethereum's ultimate value is not a high-speed transaction network, but a fullSpeech time: Friday morning, August 28, Eastern Time, 10 PM Friday night Beijing time, at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, this is his first major public speech since becoming Fed Chair. Although it will not specifically target cryptocurrency, statements on interest rates and liquidity will directly impact BTC, U.S. stocks, and RWA tokens. Market focus on three core points 1. Inflation and interest rate path (top priority) Market speculation: Is he hawkish or signaling rate cuts? - If hawkish: Emphasize stubborn inflation, keep the possibility of further rate hikes. The dollar strengthens, risk assets come under pressure, BTC likely to face pressure and pull back, altcoins, xNVDA, SNDK weaken simultaneously. - If signaling dovish: Hint at rate cuts within the year, market risk appetite rises, favorable for BTC and growth assets. 2. Attitude toward financial innovation The theme of this conference is financial innovation. He will not directly endorse BTC but will discuss digital assets and payment systems. Historical stance: Acknowledge digital assets have become part of the U.S. financial system but clearly state the Fed will not backstop the crypto industry; no rescue in crisis, the industry must be self-reliant. Key to watch for hints on ETF and stablecoin regulation. 3. Balance sheet reduction pace He consistently advocates shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. If he signals continued liquidity tightening, global risk assets will be under pressure; if balance sheet reduction slows, it is an indirect positive for the crypto space. Practical reminders for the crypto market 1. Do not heavily bet on the outcome before the speech.On the surface, BTC just touched the new high of 81,266, and the whole internet is calling for it to hold above 80,000, but ETH can't even break above 2500. This kind of lively and conflicting mismatch is what really deserves to ponder today. Don't you find it strange? The market is clearly rising, so why is the counterfeit leader acting like something is holding it down? The ETH long position I had was swept into stop-loss at 2459—not because it was inserted by a pin, but by repeated friction. The 2500 level has bounced back and forth so many times, and every time it surges, it feels like hitting a glass ceiling. Volume can't keep up, buying can't take hold, and in the end, I can only watch the price slide down. Honestly, I stopped waiting and opened a short position at 2459. What I want to talk about here isn't the profit or loss of a single trade, but what the market is pricing in. ETH's derivatives structure has already exposed its weakness. The funding rate has turned flat, and open interest actually drops when the price rebounds—what does this mean? Bulls are reducing positions, not increasing positions. What truly supports the price is passive buying in the spot, but leveraged funds are no longer willing to take risks at this level. 2500 has been repeatedly tested but cannot be broken; every touch is accompanied by a decrease in open positions. This is a typical liquidity vacuum: orders are thick above, buying is sparse below, and prices can only spend time within this narrow range. BTC is different. It hit a new high, and even after falling back to around 78,800, the structure still saw a high point rise. BTC trades time for space, while ETH is about tradeThe cold wallet was left in a drawer, unconnected, not lost, and untouched. Then the coins were gone. This sounds like a horror story, but the most counterintuitive part of the Coldcard incident at the end of July was exactly that. According to CoinDesk, based on data from the research team, the attacker transferred over 1,000 BTC from 1,196 wallets in 41 minutes. The attack didn't require touching the device or stealing the rhyme; Researchers believe the problem lies in some old firmware seed generation lacking randomness, allowing attackers to reconstruct private keys somewhere else that "shouldn't have been guessed." I think the most memorable thing about this incident is: safes can be very sturdy, but if keys come in only a few shapes from birth, locking them for a long time is useless. Many people understand hardware wallet security but think of "offline." This is certainly important, but it only solves the problem of whether the key might be stolen later. Further up, there's another hurdle: how was this key originally generated? A truly reliable random number means there are so many candidates that the computer can't even try them all; Once the random process becomes predictable, what seems like a complex 24 words can just be a pretty shell for a small answer pool. The project team has publicly admitted that the affected version has seed generation flaws and released a fix. But it also emphasizes an easily overlooked fact: updating firmware can only fix the new seed generated later, not suddenly randomize the old seed. It's like replacing a better locksmith won't automatically change the old key in your pocketBitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with $314 million more absorbed on August 25 alone, of which IBIT took $284 million. Many people's first reaction to this number is that institutions are about to push the price up again. I, however, think what’s more worth watching now is whether there is resonance between capital flows and price.
BTC is oscillating around $78,900, rising only about 0.5% that day, and the intraday range hasn’t been significantly expanded. ETF buying has indeed provided support for the spot market, but the price hasn’t broken through accordingly, indicating that there are still many profit-taking and trapped positions waiting to exit above. In other words, money is coming in, but there is not yet a scramble to accumulate.
The significance of this round of inflows is more about underpinning the market rather than immediately igniting it. IBIT alone contributed the vast majority of net inflows, reflecting that large capital still has demand for BTC allocation; but if the flow is too concentrated, it also means the market is overly dependent on a single channel. Once US stock risk appetite weakens or ETF inflows slow down, short-term sentiment could quickly turn sour.
Going forward, focus on two signals: whether ETF inflows can continue and spread beyond IBIT; and whether BTC can break above $80,000 with volume. The former indicates support, the latter shows willingness to chase prices. Until a breakout occurs, continue to short $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)📝 Today's share on $BTC
BTC pulled back after hitting 81270, testing the strength of the correction
📊 Market Analysis:
BTC surged to 81270 then retreated to 78762. Last week saw a 23% rally, mainly due to the US Treasury Secretary doubling bond repurchases + short squeeze. RSI daily at 82 is overbought, so a short-term pullback is almost inevitable.
📈 Trading Insights:
The rally driven by forced liquidations is hard to sustain; the key is whether spot buying can take over. ETF weekly net inflow of 1.92 billion is a positive signal, but if the pullback expands in volume and fails to recover, caution is needed.
⛏️ On-Chain Data:
Exchange BTC balances continue to decline, whales are withdrawing coins. Short-term holders' MVRV rose to 1.15, close to the 1.2 profit-taking threshold. Stablecoin inflows show no significant increase; new money is entering slowly.
📝 Market Commentary:
Currently, the market is driven by "news + short squeeze," not a full return of new liquidity. Before PCE and Jackson Hole events, it's better to watch more and trade less.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 77800-78500
🔴 Resistance: 80000-81270
⚠️ Risk level: 77000
🧠 My Thoughts: Hold the base position, add more if 77800 stabilizes or breaks above 80000 with volume. September is usually the weakest month; position management is more important than directional judgment.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Understanding $SATO from On-Chain Data: A Reserve-Driven On-Chain Experiment
In the thriving ecosystem of Uniswap V4 Hook, $SATO has become a highly watched experimental token in the space due to its curve minting and ETH reserve-backed design. Setting aside market sentiment, we directly analyze the project's underlying status and operational logic through real on-chain data.
Currently, a total of 15.317 million SATO have been minted, accounting for 72.94% of the theoretical maximum supply of 20.5 million. The design sets 21 million as an asymptotic upper limit; this figure is a theoretical approaching value, and the protocol mechanism is designed so that this ceiling can never be fully reached at once—there will be no scenario of minting the entire supply in a single event. Meanwhile, 3.446 million SATO have been permanently burned, representing 16.41% of the total maximum supply. The burns come from secondary market redemptions and the protocol’s built-in deflationary mechanism. Burned tokens are completely removed from circulation and cannot re-enter the market.
This curve mechanism features two key prices: a minting marginal price of $0.5621 (0.00022352 ETH) and a burning marginal price of $0.2206 (0.00008772 ETH). Simply put, when users inject ETH into the contract to mint new SATO, the cost per additional token rises toward the minting marginal price; conversely, when users redeem SATO for ETH by burning tokens, the redemption reference price corresponds to the burning marginal price. The price difference between these two points is the source of the protocol’s reserve earnings. These are not fixed trading prices for the token; the secondary market DEX price will fluctuate independently of these values.
The circulating market value, calculated at the minting marginal price, is $8.61 million. The Hook contract holds 1119.7 ETH in reserves, equivalent to about $2.82 million. This ETH serves as the physical backing for the entire token. On average, each circulating SATO corresponds to a reserve backing value of $0.1838. This figure represents the actual ETH held by the protocol and forms the core safety net of the token: even if market sentiment declines, the token has on-chain reserves as a baseline support, clearly distinguishing it from pure Meme tokens with no asset backing. Additionally, the protocol has accumulated 100.46 ETH in fees, approximately $252,650, which are permanently locked in the Hook contract and cannot be withdrawn or misappropriated by the team.
Unlike ordinary tokens, SATO has no team pre-mine or large team holdings; all tokens are minted by users injecting ETH. The contract has no admin minting rights; the only way to create new tokens is through external users depositing ETH, which simultaneously increases the reserve pool. Burning tokens means users return tokens to redeem ETH from the reserve pool, permanently destroying the tokens. Overall supply is entirely determined by market user behavior.
Notably, all reserve assets of SATO are stored in ETH within the contract, which brings a unique potential benefit: if ETH’s price rises significantly in the future, the USD valuation of the reserves in the contract will passively increase. Assuming the total SATO supply remains relatively stable, the reserve backing value per token will rise accordingly. The original underlying safety net will be further strengthened, enhancing the token’s intrinsic on-chain value. The appreciation of reserve ETH does not create new SATO tokens out of thin air but raises the protocol’s fundamental floor, boosting market confidence and attracting more participants to mint and trade, creating a positive feedback loop. Conversely, if ETH’s price falls, the USD value of the backing will shrink accordingly, which is a risk that must be acknowledged.
Of course, risks must be viewed objectively. First, the minting and burning marginal prices do not equal the secondary market transaction price; market prices can be significantly higher than the minting price or fall below the backing price, so market volatility risk remains high. Second, the asymptotic total supply is just a mathematical model; actual circulation will continuously fluctuate with minting and burning dynamics. Third, as an early experimental project on Uniswap V4 Hook, it is an on-chain innovation trial with complex contract logic and unknown contract-level risks. Additionally, ETH’s own market volatility directly affects the USD valuation of the reserves.
Compared to many Meme coins driven by narratives in the space, SATO openly publishes its reserve assets, burn volume, and minting costs on-chain for anyone to verify directly, without relying on unilateral claims from the project team. It encodes “asset backing” into the contract’s foundation.Based on the currently announced temporary route between Iran and Oman, it is clear that Iran is taking concrete actions to supervise and control the Strait of Hormuz.
The temporary route is about 7 nautical miles ≈ 13 kilometers wide. According to data from August 4, the entrance is most likely close to Omani waters, but the main passage subsequently goes through Iranian waters, entering under Iranian supervision.
The exit passes through Iranian waters and then through Omani waters, with Oman deciding whether to allow passage, but Iran must be notified and has the right to be informed.
Additionally, according to current information, the activation of the new temporary route means the original southern route will be closed, and all ships in the coming months will have to pass through the temporary route.
Overall, Iran no longer relies on political control over the sovereignty of the strait but has moved into actual supervision and control. This is very unfavorable for the United States. Under what conditions can the U.S. accept this reality? #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 "Revolut's Aggressive Push for EURR Before the August 31 Deadline: Who Swallowed the Stablecoin Ledger of 45 Million European Users?"
Only 5 days remain until the August 31 deadline for the full phase-out of USDT. Europe's largest fintech, Revolut, suddenly teamed up with Bridge, a subsidiary of Stripe, to launch the compliant euro stablecoin EURR.
The EU's MiCA regulation imposes a 60% bank deposit red line, cutting off Tether's lifeline of relying on $184 billion in assets to earn 83% high-yield US Treasury interest, forcing it to abandon its licensed European channel.
Revolut has taken advantage of this to remove USDT from its shelves, diverting all the accrued interest, exchange spreads, and deposit/withdrawal flows of 45 million European users into its own treasury. Global stablecoins are now fully heading towards a bifurcated landscape of offshore freedom and licensed domestic strongholds. $BTC 比特币冲完8万，没有直接砸下来，今天守在79000附近。 这一点其实挺重要。 前面一周从6万多一路干到8万，涨幅接近25%，现在有人获利了结太正常了。BTC今天跌不到1%，但ETH、SOL都回了3%左右，XRP更是回撤超过4%。这种走势我反而觉得健康，真要是一口气继续往上冲，反而容易把短线资金和杠杆全吸进来。 现在最值得盯的，就是79000这个位置。 如果这里能慢慢磨住，说明8万附近的抛压正在被消化。后面再去冲8万，甚至摸更高的位置，底气会比昨天硬不少。 但市场也已经明显热起来了。 恐慌贪婪指数12天从27直接干到74，随后回到65。上一次这么高还是去年10月大跌前，那次最后有接近190亿美元杠杆仓位被清掉。这个数据不是说“马上要跌”，但至少提醒一句：现在已经不是随便闭眼追涨的时候了。 有意思的是，基本面这边并没有跟着降温。 CryptoQuant的Bull Score已经从30升到80，10项指标里有8项偏多，现货和期货需求也重新一起往上走。美国银行业甚至已经开始筹划自己的全国区块链网络，准备把稳定币、支付和代币化存款这些东西往传统银行体系里塞。 所以我现在不会因为BTC从8万掉到7$xSKHY SK Hynix ADR $159.53 (closing on 8/25), up 2.68%. Q2 revenue ₩79.3 trillion, profit ₩60.5 trillion, profit margin 76%. HBM4 has started mass production.
What does this profit margin mean in the semiconductor industry? TSMC's Q2 gross margin is 53%, Samsung Semiconductor's is 38%, SK Hynix's is 76%. The most profitable memory company in the world, bar none.
HBM4 is the next-generation high-bandwidth memory, with Nvidia as the main customer. SK Hynix's market share in HBM exceeds 50%, and the mass production of HBM4 means it is at least 6-9 months ahead of Samsung in this race. If NVDA's earnings report tonight shows strong guidance and confirms HBM4 demand, SK Hynix will be the most direct beneficiary.
When SK Hynix fell from ₩2.6M to ₩1.3M in the second half of last year, a Korean analyst friend said "Korean semiconductors are overvalued." Now it seems it wasn't overvalued but panic sold too low. Q2 profit margin 76%, PBR only 1.8x, PER 3.5x. This is one of the cheapest semiconductor stocks globally.
KOSPI 000660 ₩1,580,000 (data as of 8/4 with some lag), ADR $159.53 is closer to real-time. Mirae Asset target ₩2.8M, +97%.
In terms of trading, ADR 155 is support, 165 resistance. Breaking through 170 opens up upside space. HBM4 mass production + NVDA earnings report are dual catalysts. Mid-term target is ₩2.8M Tonight at 20:30, the US July Core PCE Price Index will be released — this is the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation gauge and a key vote determining the September interest rate path. The market expects a year-over-year 3.3%, unchanged from the previous value.
PCE > expectation (YoY > 3.3% or MoM ≥ 0.3%) → Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, September rate hike expectations rise, US Treasury yields rebound, the dollar strengthens, while US stocks, gold, and BTC come under pressure.
PCE = expectation (YoY 3.3% / MoM 0.2%) → Inflation remains stalled at a high level, the market continues the "high rates last longer" logic, and various assets overall remain neutral.
PCE < expectation (YoY < 3.3% or MoM < 0.2%) → Inflation cooling is confirmed, rate cut expectations move forward, US Treasury yields and the dollar decline, and risk assets like gold and BTC are expected to rally.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Yellen is facing a severe test in the US debt market — reports indicate the Treasury is considering using nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) to fund the expanded long-term Treasury buyback program, dubbed a "Treasury version of Operation Twist" by outsiders, aimed at lowering long-term yields and easing Treasury selling pressure. If tonight's PCE unexpectedly falls, it will create a more favorable macro environment for this operation — inflation easing combined with Treasury bond buying to suppress rates, a double benefit likely to drive funds into BTC and gold seeking hedging and yield.
This Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium, and tonight's PCE data is the key to handing him the microphone — if the data is moderate, he has room to signal dovishness on Friday; if the data exceeds expectations, Powell may continue to hawk.
The market estimates tonight's PCE will likely be moderate or slightly low. If combined with Yellen's buyback operation to suppress long-term rates, it will undoubtedly open upside space for $BTC and gold. Waiting eagerly for the 20:30 data release!
$ETH #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
The sanctions escalation is real, but the US has temporarily delayed implementing secondary sanctions, and Iran is still in talks, indicating that both sides are leaving a diplomatic backdoor. Oil prices falling back below $90 is the market's way of saying — you shout loudly, but no one wants a complete fallout.
The sanctions have indeed been intensified. On August 24, Bassett announced an "economic isolation" against Iran, covering five major areas: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, adding about 60 sanctioned entities. Digital assets were included in the Iran sanctions for the first time, with the US Treasury aiming to cut off Iran's external financing channels through cryptocurrency.
Trump called this an "economic D-Day," warning that any country providing "any form of lifeline" to Iran would face "extremely severe economic sanctions."
However, the actual effectiveness of the sanctions is questionable. The US has yet to impose major secondary sanctions on any country. China purchases about 90% of Iran's oil, and as long as China continues buying, the impact of these sanctions will be greatly diminished.
Navigation talks are also progressing simultaneously. On August 25, Iran and Oman announced the establishment of a temporary joint corridor and joint mine clearance. Oil prices responded by dropping below $90. But Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian clearly warned: "This does not mean the Strait will immediately reopen."NVIDIA's earnings report is currently the core barometer for the US AI stock sector. It not only affects its own stock price but also drives collective fluctuations in the Nasdaq, semiconductor, and storage industry chains. Three scenario simulations: 1. Earnings exceed expectations: Data center revenue, next quarter guidance, and gross margin all surpass market expectations. NVIDIA's stock price surges, boosting HBM storage sectors like Micron and SK Hynix, the Nasdaq rebounds accordingly, AI tech stocks collectively recover, and risk appetite rises. RWA tokens xNVDA and SNDK strengthen simultaneously. 2. Meets expectations: Performance meets targets but without surprises, likely resulting in a "good news priced in, high open followed by a pullback" pattern. Intense internal sector divergence occurs; storage chains with real orders are relatively resilient, while pure thematic AI concept stocks spike then plunge. 3. Below expectations: Revenue, next quarter guidance decline, or gross margin falls. NVIDIA experiences a sharp correction, dragging down the entire Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, storage chips face collective valuation cuts, the Nasdaq is pressured to pull back, and growth stocks generally suffer valuation compression. Industry chain transmission logic: NVIDIA is the largest purchaser of HBM high-bandwidth memory. Its earnings report guidance on AI computing demand directly determines the prosperity of Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk. Optimistic guidance raises storage manufacturers' order expectations; once demand guidance weakens, the storage sector will lead the sell-off. Reminder for the crypto market RWA tokens: xNVDA and SNDK are tokenized US stocks, tradable 24/7 in the crypto space, but the true pricing power lies in the US stock after-hours market. False fluctuations often occur during market closures, so it is essential to wait for the US market to open for confirmation A $935B TGA sounds like a giant liquidity bazooka, but this isn't QE. Using part of Treasury's cash balance for long-bond buybacks could improve market liquidity and temporarily ease pressure on yields. It cannot erase the deficits, issuance or inflation driving long rates higher. That's the distinction that matters for BTC and gold. If buybacks lower yields sustainably, risk assets get breathing room. If they only calm volatility, the structural rate problem remains. #TreasuryEyesTGABuybacks Trump knows that the United States wants to ease the pressure of the $40 trillion national debt, and Bitcoin is the only solution. The biggest problem with the dollar system is that the U.S. imports goods, and after dollars are paid overseas, those dollars in foreign hands have to be placed somewhere. In the past, the only asset that was truly safe, highly liquid, and capable of absorbing such a large amount of money was basically U.S. Treasury bonds. To solve this problem, a second global reserve asset must be created: politically neutral enough that everyone is willing to treat it as a safe store of value, and its scale and liquidity must be large enough to hold trillions of dollars. Although gold also serves this function, physical gold is too troublesome to transfer, store, and settle, so its scale has always been far smaller than U.S. Treasury bonds.
Therefore, the only real solution is Bitcoin. At $100,000 per coin, Bitcoin's market cap is about $2 trillion. If it rises to $5 trillion, which is about $250,000 per coin, the scale would be large enough for governments around the world to seriously consider holding it as a reserve. Excluding jewelry, gold as an investment and store of value is worth about $14 trillion. For Bitcoin to reach this scale, it would need to rise to about $700,000 per coin. So Trump's strategy is to have the U.S. government and Americans acquire as much Bitcoin as possible while it is still not that large, and at the same time, gradually promote Bitcoin as a global reserve asset through policy. This is also why he is so actively supporting Crypto, even creating a cryptocurrency reserve.
In the future, as Bitcoin grows larger and more liquid, the dollars held by foreign governments and investors can also be used to buy Bitcoin. Americans already hold a lot of Bitcoin, so this could become a huge wealth transfer. The more foreigners buy, the higher Bitcoin rises, and the assets held by Americans also appreciate. Of course, this money will not be used directly to pay off U.S. debt, but the U.S. government can obtain some revenue through taxes and the appreciation of its own Bitcoin holdings. In short, it is letting foreigners buy Bitcoin, which indirectly helps the U.S. pay off its debt in the end.PCE and Jackson Hole Take Over — Two Major Events This Week Set the Direction
BTC breaks below 78,000, currently around 77,500, retreating for two consecutive days after a 24% weekly gain. ETH weakens in sync to 2,440. Liquidations reached $460 million in the past 24 hours.
This BTC surge was ignited by the US Treasury doubling the scale of long-term bond buybacks, with the 30-year yield falling from 5.34% to about 5.19%, the dollar weakening, and risk assets rising across the board. But Basset later said the market was "overreacting," emphasizing it was not QE. The dollar index rebounded, and BTC subsequently fell from 81,200 to 77,500.
Two major events take over this week:
First: July US Core PCE on August 27. The Fed's most watched inflation gauge. June core PCE rose only 0.1% month-over-month, but the Cleveland Fed model suggests July could jump to 0.25%. If PCE rebounds, rate hike expectations will heat up, putting pressure on BTC and gold.
Second: Fed Chair Wash's first speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 28. Since taking office, Wash canceled forward guidance and communicates very subtly. The market is eager to hear clues from him about a September rate hike, but he may give fewer signals — uncertainty itself is a source of volatility. Wash once proposed reducing the annual rate meetings from 8 to 6 to modernize monetary policy. If his tone leans hawkish, it could trigger market repricing.
BTC dominance rises to 59.68%, funds still seeking BTC as a safe haven, while altcoins continue to bleed out Saylor precisely anchors Bitcoin's future blueprint as a "digital capital transformation," targeting a vast traditional asset pool worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including global equities, fixed income, and gold. In his strategic vision, Bitcoin has broken free from the narrow "peer-to-peer electronic cash" definition in the Nakamoto whitepaper, evolving ultimately into the underlying infrastructure that supports the high-speed operation of the entire digital capital market.
Strategic Communication from an Institutional Perspective
Releasing this reform discourse at this moment deeply reflects MicroStrategy's strategic trajectory in recent years, transitioning comprehensively from a traditional software company to a macro Bitcoin holder. From advocating "custodial sovereignty" to introducing "counterparty trust management," Saylor is committed to smoothly transitioning Bitcoin from its early absolute decentralized architecture to an asset allocation model compatible with mainstream institutions and even sovereign-level participation. This logical restructuring essentially fills a narrative gap with a macro perspective for Wall Street and the broader traditional capital amid the current digital asset boom.【ETF Funds Keep Flowing In, But Institutions Haven't Officially Turned Bullish Yet】
This recent crypto market rally is driven not only by a short squeeze but also by a return of spot ETF buying.
$BTC spot ETFs saw a latest single-day net inflow of about $338M, marking 6 consecutive trading days of inflows, totaling approximately $2.26B. Last week alone attracted about $1.92B, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025.
$ETH ETFs also recorded 6 consecutive days of inflows, with the latest single-day inflow around $115.6M, totaling about $812.8M during this period.
This indicates that traditional capital is re-entering the market, supporting BTC and ETH rebounds not only through short covering but also with spot demand.
However, it's too early to pop the champagne. Year-to-date in 2026, BTC ETFs still have a net outflow of about $2.57B, and ETH ETFs a net outflow of about $1.3B. Recent inflows mainly patch previous gaps; the overall capital direction for the year has yet to turn positive.
In contrast, $XRP ETFs are moving to a different beat. The latest single-day net inflow is about $13.8M, with a year-to-date net inflow of approximately $400M. Since listing, $XRP ETFs have attracted about $1.57B, making it the only one among the three to maintain net inflows this year.
The key to watch next is whether BTC and ETH ETFs can sustain inflows for several weeks. If they can, the foundation of this rally will be fundamentally different. Last week the market was bustling and celebrating all week long, how is everyone's mindset now? Unconsciously, BTC has been fluctuating around $80,000. Many friends are still stuck inside, still some distance from their previous break-even highs. Today, let's review the ins and outs of this market trend and see which key information we might have overlooked. Let's talk about why the whales chose to exit, and whether there will be another market peak after this round. Policy-driven markets tend to have more rapid ups and downs than usual. Let's get straight to the point. Back to the core question today: does this rally signal the start of a bull market? From my perspective, many conditions typical of the early bull market phase have already appeared: policy expectations are beginning to ferment, ETF funds continue to follow, and mainstream coins are collectively strengthening. All the necessary elements have appeared. However, the final confirmation point is still missing — we need to see if the $80,000 level can hold steadily and whether new policy news will continue to provide momentum. Speaking of policy, we can't avoid this White House meeting. When the news first came out, the market was all about emotions. The president, regulatory agencies, leading exchanges, plus Wall Street institutions sitting at the same table — the market's direct feeling was that the crypto industry's status has changed, officially placed on the negotiation table of U.S. financial policy. After a week of settling, what really stirred the market was Trump pushing Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. Simply put, this bill aims to define the boundaries of crypto regulation.The contraction in early supply mainly reflects the reduced attractiveness of stablecoin holdings in a high-interest environment, as well as multiple pressures brought by the implementation of the European MiCA regulation and competition from tokenized funds. Now, with the market risk appetite warming up and policy direction shifting, funds are once again converging into the stablecoin channel. The research report outlines five positive factors driving the next phase of stablecoin explosion:
1. The overall recovery of the crypto market drives capital inflow;
2. The US regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer;
3. The accelerated implementation of tokenized capital markets (RWA);
4. The continuous increase in stablecoin payment penetration; 5. AI Agent (AIAgent) has already shown early signs of using stablecoins for settlement.
Quarterly revenue exceeds $700 million
Based on fundamental improvements, Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on Circle with a target price of $140. Reviewing its capital market journey, Circle went public in June 2025 with an issue price set at $31, raising approximately $1.1 billion. After a valuation correction in November 2025, the latest quarterly report shows revenue reaching $701 million and net profit recording $48 million, both achieving positive year-on-year growth, providing solid data support for Wall Street’s pricing models.
It should be noted that Circle’s stock price has risen about 40% over the past month, indicating that secondary market funds have already priced in some optimistic expectations. Whether the valuation can further break upward in the future will highly depend on three core variables: USDC supply surged by $2 billion in seven days, stablecoin trading volume share surpasses USDT for the first time
In the stablecoin race, absolute market capitalization is no longer the sole metric. Although USDC still ranks behind Tether (USDT) in total market cap, the competitive landscape has fundamentally reversed when measured by adjusted trading volume, which reflects actual circulation efficiency.
Data shows that USDC's market share of adjusted stablecoin trading volume has climbed from about 40% in 2025 to over 60% so far in 2026, successfully surpassing USDT in this key dimension. This shift in data perspective indicates that the market's evaluation of stablecoins is moving from a single focus on locked capital to the depth of their actual payment use and injection into the real economy cycle. If AI agent payments are included in this new track, USDC's commercial catch-up momentum is expected to further amplify. ZEC at $790, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: ETF launched, surged then pulled back, retail investors panicked.
In the past week, ZEC surged from 570 all the way to 883-888, hitting an eight-year high, the whole network celebrating "the spring of privacy coins has arrived." Then on August 25, Grayscale ZCSH officially debuted on NYSE Arca, and that day it immediately dropped sharply, hitting a low of 754, now struggling at 790.
A typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.
First thing: The ETF is here, but the 2.5% fee tells you institutions aren’t that enthusiastic.
The world’s first ZEC spot ETF, with AUM around $310 million, holding 390,000 ZEC. Sounds like great news?
But look closely at the fee: 2.5%. BTC ETFs usually charge 0.2-0.4%, this is 5-10 times more expensive. Even Grayscale itself isn’t confident about attracting large-scale institutional funds, so they have to make a quick profit with high fees first. The first-year management fee flows back into the ecosystem for marketing—translated: they’re afraid no one will buy, so they’re using money for advertising.
Classic pattern: rush to accumulate before ETF launch, surge then pull back after launch.
Second thing: The NU7 vote is triggering an even bigger bomb.
The token holder vote started around August 25, topics include: whether to adjust the issuance mechanism, whether to weaken or cancel the traditional halving, and switch to a smoother issuance curve.
Only shielded ZEC spendable in the Ironwood privacy pool has voting rights, with rumored thresholds at the million-coin level. #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
Regulatory filings show that top quantitative firm Jane Street has increased its SanDisk holdings to 7.41 million shares, making it their second largest single position. This move has refocused the market on the enterprise storage sector, which has long been overshadowed by the spotlight on computing power.
Over the past two years, capital has been frantically chasing GPUs and HBM high-bandwidth memory, but with the explosion of long-context reasoning, multimodal video generation, and AI Agent historical state storage, the memory wall and storage throughput are becoming new bottlenecks limiting system efficiency. The core logic behind top firms like Jane Street increasing their holdings is to capture undervaluation correction opportunities brought by the overflow of computing bottlenecks.
However, when evaluating the AI storage sector, one cannot only look at demand fantasies driven by concepts. The storage industry itself has strong cyclical characteristics, and the key focus should be on the shipment proportion of high gross margin enterprise products and the long-term procurement orders from downstream cloud providers. Without high gross margin barriers, once capacity catches up and price wars ensue, rollercoaster-like market swings can easily backfire on valuations.
In terms of specific picks, HBM leaders like SK Hynix and Micron enjoy a certainty premium, but in the large-capacity enterprise SSD and NAND space, companies like SanDisk with the ability to achieve technological iteration breakthroughs also have excellent upside potential. A reasonable strategy is to balance allocations along the critical chain of AI data throughput.
With top quantitative firms making large-scale additions to storage leaders, how much further upside do you think the AI storage sector has? Dogecoin falls more than Bitcoin, and it's not just "emotional" in the crypto space; it's inherently a high-beta risk preference amplifier—when Bitcoin drops by 1 unit, Dogecoin often drops by 2 to 3 units.
From a sensitivity perspective, the scale difference is obvious. Bitcoin's annualized historical volatility over the past three years is about 47%, with a maximum drawdown around 50%; whereas Dogecoin's annualized volatility has long been in the 125% to 140% range, roughly twice that of Bitcoin. Its rolling correlation with BTC usually ranges from 0.55 to 0.65—moving in the same direction as Bitcoin but with leveraged amplitude. In other words, correlation controls direction, volatility controls elasticity, and multiplying the two naturally amplifies the decline.
Why is the elasticity so large? The core lies in three layers of structure. First, the buying structure differs: Bitcoin has ETFs and institutional allocation absorbing the sell-off, while $DOGE holdings are mainly retail and short-term leveraged traders; when it falls, no one steps in, and derivative open contracts get squeezed, triggering a chain of forced liquidations. Second, the pricing anchor differs: $BTC is backed by scarcity narrative and macro asset attributes, while Dogecoin lacks application layers and cash flow support; its valuation relies almost entirely on attention and sentiment, so when sentiment withdraws, there's no floor to the discount. Third, liquidity depth differs: the same selling pressure hits a thinner order book, and slippage itself adds to the additional decline.
The reverse is also true: during rebounds, it rises more sharply than Bitcoin, and historically, single-cycle gains of tens of times reflect this elasticity.#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Wash is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole at 10 PM on Friday. This will be his most important statement since taking office and a signal that the bond market has been waiting for a long time.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Since Wash took office, he scrapped forward guidance, and his statement after the July FOMC meeting was ambiguous, which the market directly interpreted as a "lack of determination to fight inflation." Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed's credibility is at risk.
CME data shows about a 60% probability of maintaining rates in September and a 40% chance of a rate hike. A month ago, a rate hike was "almost certain," but now it has become a guessing game. The market is waiting for Wash to provide a framework that connects data changes with policy actions.
At 10 PM on Friday, an Allspring executive said the risk at Jackson Hole is even greater than the $NVDA Nvidia earnings report. The bond market has already backed itself into a corner; every word Wash says could determine whether the 30-year yield stabilizes at 5.2% or surges to 5.5%. #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
Impact on ZEC can be analyzed in two layers.
In the short term, ZEC has already priced in the ETF listing expectation by rising from 250 to 859. The first-day trading volume did not exceed expectations with a surge, so short-term sentiment is prone to a "good news realization" style pullback. ZEC's rise and fall follows this logic.
In the medium to long term, the sustainability brought by the ETF is more important. Bitcoin's trend has already proven that as long as the ETF continues to have net subscriptions, the price will gradually rise. Now that Zcash has a compliant channel, allocation funds will come in; the pace may be slow, but the direction is upward. If we see continuous inflows into the ETF in the next one or two weeks, ZEC's bottom will keep rising, and pullbacks will instead be opportunities.
Here is my view.
The launch of the Zcash ETF is indeed a milestone for the privacy sector, as institutional funds finally have a compliant channel to enter. However, the ceiling for the privacy sector is not as high as Bitcoin's. Whether Zcash can rise from 250 to 2000 depends not on retail sentiment gambling, but on whether the ETF can continuously attract capital inflows over the next 12 to 18 months.
What do you think?
$BTC $ZEC $ETH Let's first look at the current coordinates: - Gold 4600+, hitting a historic high - BTC breaks 80,000, up 25% in three days - US debt at 40 trillion, Treasury begins buybacks - CPI bottoms out, rate hikes peak, easing expectations rise These four signals together point to the same future: global liquidity shifts from "contraction" to "expansion." The three main economic themes ahead: 1. Start of the rate cut cycle (second half of 2026) CPI bottoms → Fed signals easing → September meeting is a key node. Once rate cuts land: - USD weakens → Gold, BTC, and commodities continue to rise - Global assets "rise with the tide" - Emerging markets (especially Asia) see capital inflows 2. Accelerated fiscal expansion (2027 outlook) The 40 trillion US debt will continue to be borrowed; Treasury buybacks = printing money to buy its own debt. The end of debt monetization is the return of inflation. Why is gold rising? Because the market has already sensed the "printing press restarting." 3. Asset repricing (in progress) The old anchor (US debt) is loosening, the new anchor (gold + BTC) is forming. Capital is flowing from "paper assets" to "hard assets"—this is the biggest trend for the next 2-3 years. But the turning period is also a "danger period": Risk one: Rate cuts may "fall short of expectations" The market has priced in rate cuts—if the Fed only cuts once and stops, expectations are dashed = a major correction. Risk two: Inflation rebound Rate cuts + printing = "Inflation bomb" explodes tonight! Core PCE may break through 3.3%, the rate hike knife is already set before Waller even takes office
Tonight, the July core PCE data will be released with great impact! The year-on-year expectation remains at 3.3%, crushing the Fed's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Even more painful is that price increases in the AI industry chain, high stock market valuations driving up portfolio management fees, and Middle East tensions pushing up energy costs—under this triple pressure, inflation simply won't come down. Goldman Sachs even calculated separately that just the stock market valuation alone contributed 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase.
Before the data is out, the probability of a rate hike in September has already surged to 40.1%. If tonight's PCE exceeds expectations, this fire will directly burn into Waller's Jackson Hole debut on Friday—even if he wants to be dovish, the data won't allow it.
Wait for the PCE results to land, then see how Waller responds. Those rushing in now are just cannon fodder for the data. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes for a temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor, helping push oil prices lower and easing near-term inflation concerns. At the same time, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risks firmly on the table. For crypto, the setup is mixed. $BTC is holding near $79K while $ETH trades around $2.5K. If diplomacy progresses and oil continues to cool, risk assets could benefit. But any breakdown in talks or escalation of sanctioBesides Changxin Storage, a certain platform quietly launched the latest hot topic in embodied intelligence: Yushu Technology (due to compliance, it cannot be promoted, but this actually creates an information gap; people in the crypto circle don't know, and those in the A-share market know even less).
It has dropped for four to five days now. Since short selling is not allowed in the A-share market, you know what to do with the next big A-share target.
- Changxin circulating shares: 6.7%, unlocking 2.27% on January 27 next year
- Yushu circulating shares: 7.44%, unlocking 0.56% on February 19 next year
So currently, the selling pressure isn't that big. Even with unlocking, the selling pressure won't be that large. For now, don't short it.Regarding the future trends of $BTC and $ETH, there are currently two completely different voices in the market: one side is optimistic due to the recent strong rebound, while the other remains cautious because of long-term adjustments and uncertainties. Behind this is actually a game between short-term policy stimulus, market data improvement, and long-term liquidity and institutional cautiousness.
📈 Optimistic signals: Has the rebound already started?
Recently, the market has experienced a strong rebound driven by several key factors:
· US Treasury repo ignites the market: On August 20, the US Treasury announced doubling the bond repurchase scale, which the market interpreted as liquidity release, directly triggering this rebound. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes that under the pressure of $40 trillion debt, the US can only release liquidity, which will drive Bitcoin up.
· Shorts suffered a "bloodbath": On the day the news was announced, the crypto market recorded the largest single-day gain of the year, with $BTC breaking through $79,000 and $ETH recovering to $2,400. Over $2.75 billion worth of $BTC short positions were liquidated that day, fueling the rebound.
· Demand and institutional funds warming up: Data shows that crypto demand grew by 22% in the past 7 days. On August 24, spot $ETF net inflows for $BTC and $ETH were $337 million and $115 million respectively, indicating a recovery of institutional interest.
· Sellers have shown "exhaustion": A key indicator measuring selling pressure dropped to historically low levels (the 11th time in history). After the previous 10 occurrences, $BTC rose within a year with a median increase of 155%.
⚠️ Risks and concerns: Can the rebound continue?
Despite the strong momentum, many analysts warn that it may be too early to declare a reversal:
· US buying remains weak: The "Coinbase Premium Index," which measures US investor demand, has been negative for 95 consecutive days, a record longest streak, indicating that spot buying in the US remains weak and the rebound is mostly driven by derivatives short covering.
· $ETF net outflows for the year: Despite recent inflows, since 2026, Bitcoin $ETF reserves have decreased by nearly 92,000 $BTC, showing institutions are still withdrawing over the year.
· Macro and regulatory uncertainties: A Goldman Sachs report points out that crypto trading volume has declined for 10 consecutive months, and 35% of institutional investors see regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle. Citibank earlier downgraded 12-month target prices for $BTC and $ETH to $82,000 and $2,240 respectively due to issues like $ETF fund turning negative.
🧐 Industry leaders’ views: Finding consensus amid divergence
Regarding the future market, industry leaders have different opinions:
· Arthur Hayes (extremely bullish on $ETH): Believes that in this liquidity rebound, $ETH will outperform all large-cap assets, with $BTC market dominance possibly dropping from 60% to 40%, and $ETH price potentially reaching $20,000-$30,000.
· Fundstrat (dip then rise): Thinks $BTC may first pull back to $60,000-$65,000 and $ETH to $1,800-$2,000 in the first half of 2026, but this will be a good entry point before year-end targets of $BTC at $115,000 and $ETH at $4,500.
· CZ (cautious): Attributes the 2026 downturn to AI hype drawing funds away, geopolitical risks, and the four-year cycle, considering it a phase adjustment.
💎 Summary
In the short term, the market focus is whether this rebound can shift from "short squeeze" to "spot demand driven." Whether $BTC can hold and break through $80,000, and whether the Coinbase Premium Index can turn positive, are key to judging trend reversal. From a mid-to-long-term perspective, US debt issues, regulatory progress (such as possible policies in September), and the overall liquidity environment will be core factors determining the trend in the second half of the year. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 这次最值得注意的，不只是IBIT规模有多大，而是越来越多原本自己保管BTC的大户，开始把手里的BTC直接换进ETF结构。 据披露，目前通过实物申购（in-kind）的方式进入ETF的BTC规模已经超过50亿美元，而且这类交易的最低门槛已经从2500万美元降到了100万美元。简单理解就是：以前大户想把BTC搬进ETF，门槛高得吓人，现在普通机构级资金也更容易参与了。👀 这种方式和传统的“卖BTC换美元，再买ETF”不太一样。符合条件的投资者可以直接把BTC交给授权参与机构，换成IBIT份额。这样少了一次先卖再买的折腾，也可能降低交易过程中的滑点和执行成本，具体税务效果则要看投资者自身情况和交易结构。 为什么越来越多大户愿意这么干？ 说白了，BTC放自己钱包里，钱是自己的，但麻烦也是自己的。 私钥怎么保管？安全怎么做？几十亿资产怎么防盗？团队怎么管理？出了问题又找谁？ 现在有人开始觉得，与其自己天天操心，不如把BTC交给成熟的金融体系管理，自己拿着ETF份额，照样能获得BTC价格敞口。 而BlackRock的IBIT已经成了这个“新停车场”，截至8月24日，其净资产规模约603亿美元。?NVIDIA leads earnings reports, but this time the market isn't looking at whether AI is still hot
The hype no longer needs to be proven. What really needs to be verified is: can these massive AI expenditures start turning into sustainable returns? NVIDIA focuses on GPU and system pricing power, Marvell looks at data center networking and custom chip demand; together, the two companies cover the upstream and midstream of AI infrastructure
If orders are strong and profits stable, AI trades can continue to breathe; if revenue looks good but costs, memory price hikes, and customer concentration start squeezing profits, the market will immediately find fault
AI is no longer at the stage of "rising just by talking about the future." The bill has come, and only those who can turn compute hunger into cash flow deserve to continue enjoying high valuations
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期