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ETH oscillating after hitting a key integer level is actually normal
I think the most awkward thing about ETH right now is not that it can't go up, but that its narrative is harder to explain in one sentence than BTC's. BTC talks about reserve, ETFs, anti-dilution, which the market easily understands; ETH has to cover on-chain revenue, L2, staking, institutional ETFs, application recovery—all of which can add value but also potentially hold it back
So when ETH rises, the market gets excited; when it oscillates, doubts come quickly. Because everyone is asking: Are we buying asset value this round, or buying into ecosystem recovery?
I will pay more attention to whether real on-chain demand is keeping up. Only when usage heats up will ETH's rise stop feeling like a "late catch-up rally"
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Option 1 — Strong & Natural
Bitcoin may be warming up for something much bigger. 👀
Here’s the setup worth watching:
ISM Manufacturing just hit 55.6 Russell 2000 just pushed above 3,000 and hit an ATH
These two signals lined up before major crypto expansions in 2016 and 2020.
In 2025, the setup never really appea below 50.
Now it’s back.
BTC breaking above $80K could be more than just another rally. It might be the early stage of a much bigger move toward new all-time highs.
#DailyOrbit BTC: In this bull market, the target price is at least 150,000-180,000. In the previous cycle, after breaking through 69,000, it continued to rise about 50% to 126,000. Based on this ratio, a conservative estimate for the increase after breaking the previous high this round is about 30%, which is also 150,000, with institutional consensus capping at 180,000. This is something we can manually calculate. With this target, the bottom-fishing mentality becomes more assured, and people dare to buy th$BTC News and capital flow dual-dimensional assessment: Is 79000 an accumulation zone or a downward continuation?
BTC is currently fluctuating around 79000, with volume gradually shrinking after falling back from 81270. Considering both news and capital flow, the area around 79000 leans more towards a capital absorption zone rather than a simple downward continuation.
On the news front, institutional entry channels continue to improve, and expectations of loose liquidity also support risk assets. From the capital perspective, some smart money continues to place orders around 78000, showing a bullish strategy of "adding on pullbacks, reducing on rallies," making 78500-78000 an important short-term support zone.
Operationally, attention can be paid to the absorption situation at 78500-78000; if it stabilizes, participation can be done in batches, with key resistance above at 80000-81000; if it breaks below 77500, caution is needed for short-term structural weakening.
The short-term overall bias is bullish, but risks after breaking key support still need to be guarded against. The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Haven't looked closely at $RKLB for a long time. With the US stock market closed overnight, I instead connected the token market and a few news items. Today's movement is quite interesting.
📰 News: The Neutron engine has started pre-flight testing, and the market is hopeful that a single launch could change the financial outlook; the gradual phase-out of Falcon 9 also adds uncertainty to space stocks' performance in August.
🔧 Technicals: The daily RSI has dropped to 23.3, clearly oversold; MACD shows a death cross but the green bars are shrinking; the price has simultaneously fallen below MA7 and MA25, the bearish alignment is not yet resolved, and short-term sentiment has been heavily suppressed.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens are basically flat, down only 0.06%. The US stock market closure overnight means tokens lack anchoring from the underlying stocks, so volatility is more about existing funds pricing sentiment.
🎯 Today's view: I lean bullish. The oversold condition combined with Neutron approaching a critical test node makes me think the potential for a rebound is more worth watching than further decline, but due to lack of underlying stock data, I only discuss direction.
📊 Token 67.31 (-3.12%) | US stock market closed overnight
#SpaceStocks
#NeutronMaidenFlight
#USToken Ether has liquidated a large number of high-leverage long positions formed in the short term.
However, the largest liquidation will occur when the price reaches 2,550$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $BTC 🩸【BTC Meat Grinder Lab | August 26 Macro】
BTC surged to $81K this week and then started high-level consolidation, dropping about 1%–2% today. The weekly chart remains strong, but the short term has entered the **"post-rally macro validation period"**.
🏦 US Treasury: ⭐⭐⭐½
10Y Treasury yield around 4.63%, 30Y around 5.18%. Yield pullback is favorable for BTC, but long-term rates remain high.
💵 US Dollar: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dollar Index around 98.9, overall remains slightly weak, still providing macro support for BTC.
🐳 ETF Funds: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Recently, BTC ETF funds have clearly warmed up, with institutional demand once again becoming an important support for this rally.
🏦 Fed: ⭐⭐⭐
This week's market focus remains on Jackson Hole and subsequent inflation data. If the Fed signals hawkishness, it may push yields higher, putting pressure on BTC.
🎯 BTC Macro Key Levels
🟢 Above $78K → Bullish structure maintained
🚀 Breakthrough $81K → Opens up further upside space
🔴 Below $77K → Beware of high-level pullback
☠️ Break below $75K → This rally structure clearly cools down
⭐ Today's Macro Ratings
Macro Liquidity: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Dollar Environment: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
ETF Funds: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Fed Risk: ⭐⭐⭐
High-Level Risk: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Overall: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ / 5
🩸 Today's Sharp Commentary
BTC's biggest problem now is not lack of buyers, but rising too fast.
Fiscal liquidity expectations + weak dollar + ETF inflows still support medium-term bulls; but after BTC surged past 80K, the short term has entered a phase of profit-taking and new capital competition.
"Above 80K watch the trend, 78K watch strength, 75K watch structure.
No chasing highs, no guessing tops, just wait for VWAP14 and key price confirmations."
🩸 The market is responsible for the meat grinder, we are responsible for finding the patterns.Look at BTR, this pillar is almost pulled off the screen!!!
From the daily chart, after the last rally, it has been consolidating within a range. Until this recent rally, only on-chain activity showed anomalies; everything else was purely a pump-and-dump tactic by manipulative traders. Now that it has reached the upper range, don't blindly chase longs, as it's easy to get trapped. The risk of shorting is also very high. The best approach now is to wait steadily for the trend to develop before entering!!!
Personal suggestion: You can lightly short around the current price of 0.084, targeting 0.05. If it breaks above 0.09, exit promptly!!!
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $SOL is now $97.08, down 4.52% in 24 hours, with a high of 103.16 and a low of 95.27, trading volume at 128 million, RSI at 86.2, the most overbought in the market, the surge is too strong and needs a breather.
Technical aspect: RSI 86 is indeed outrageous, short-term support at 95 for a pullback, if broken, look at 90.
But I have to remind you, don’t get carried away just by looking at net inflows. The SOL ETF cumulative net inflow breaking the 1.22 billion record is true, but about 37% of that is initial funds injected by the issuer themselves, not real retail buying; BSOL breaking 1 billion is real. Two deflation proposals (SGP-0002/0003) are in voting, aiming to double the annual deflation from 15% to 30%, which is a mid-term positive.
My thinking: hold if 95 doesn’t break, if 95 breaks, look at 90. Whether the proposals pass is something to consider later, don’t bet too heavily in advance. I see the range as 90–103. This token has high volatility; only those who can hold will profit.August 26 Jinman Gold Midday Review: Gold pulls back from highs for adjustment, look for buying opportunities on dips in the 4610-4630 range!
Gold price hit a stage high of 4696.74 before facing pressure and pulling back, latest at 4633.65, down 0.54% intraday, with an intraday high of 4673.74 and a low probing 4624.76.
After a strong rally earlier, the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase with intensified long-short battles, awaiting the PCE inflation data to determine the subsequent direction. Before the data, it is likely to remain in a range-bound digestion.
On the chart, resistance is strong at 4670-4690, with key support at 4620.
Trading advice is to buy on dips in the 4610-4630 range, targeting 4650 and 4670. Strictly control position size near key data and implement risk management.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥 This might be the signal Bitcoin has been waiting for.
Let's temporarily set aside the market noise and look at these two signals that have appeared simultaneously before major crypto market expansions:
📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index just rose to 55.6
🚀 The Russell 2000 Index just broke through 3,000 points, hitting a record high
In 2016, we saw a similar combination, which was followed by the first major crypto bull market.
In 2020, this signal appeared again, and the total crypto market cap soared from about $400 billion to over $2.5 trillion.
But in 2025, this combination never really formed—the ISM stayed below 50.
And now, it’s back.
If history rhymes again, then BTC breaking $80,000 might not be the main rally yet.
This could just be the warm-up before truly entering the price discovery phase. 👀🚀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BullRun #CryptoMarket
#DailyOrbit $HYPE HYPE $80, today is a big day — AQAv2 officially launches! $5 billion+ USDC reserves start generating yield from today, with 90% of profits fully used to buy back and burn HYPE. The first $20 million arrived on October 3rd, with an annualized buyback pressure of $135-160 million. Coinbase manages the funds, Circle handles the technology, this lineup is unbeatable.
The market rose 35% in 7 days from $58 to $80, ATH $83.3 (8/24). RSI fell back from the overbought zone to 55, MACD formed a death cross but the candlesticks still stand above MA20/50. High-level consolidation, the trend is intact.
Catalysts stacking up: Trump/CFTC compliance path, Coinbase 50x perpetual integration, Kinetiq Elysium L2 launch, Anthropic IPO pre-market trading all running on Hyperliquid. Weekly trading volume $7 billion, DeFi fees $24.63 million, the largest whale just closed a position with $45.3 million profit.
**But the $1.2 billion unlock on 8/29 is a time bomb.** 47% goes to insiders, historically three unlocks caused two crashes. AQAv2 buybacks are a long-term positive, unlocks are short-term negatives, both sides are in a tug of war.
**Still bullish but highly cautious, $80.** Hold $77-78 to confirm entry, if broken wait for $72.7. A breakout and hold above $84 targets $90→$97. Avoid heavy positions before the unlock, add after the dust settles. DOGE plunges again, speculative sentiment continues to cool down, understand the current capital logic⚠️
BTC -0.76%, ETH -0.93%, DOGE drops by 2.84%, the market's speculative sector continues to face selling pressure.
The overall market is undergoing a mild correction, but the impact on sentiment-driven coins remains strong. Approaching an important data window, capital is actively reducing risk exposure, withdrawing from high-volatility thematic assets.
Interestingly, there is a contrast on the market: very small market cap coins slightly rise against the trend, while gold also slightly declines.
On one hand, large funds are avoiding mainstream high-risk assets; on the other hand, a small amount of short-term funds are speculating on small-cap coins for short-term pulses. However, small-cap coins have very low overall trading volume and insufficient liquidity, making it very difficult to exit once the market reverses.
ETH continues to underperform BTC, indicating capital preference for Bitcoin as a safe haven. Gold weakening simultaneously also indirectly reflects that the market has not experienced a pure safe-haven flight.
This complex and fragmented market situation is most prone to misjudgment. Do not define the overall market by the rise or fall of a single coin; observe the strength and weakness of the market from multiple dimensions to reduce counter-trend operations.
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
AI super unicorn Anthropic, on the verge of filing for an IPO, has unveiled a grand vision of a "potential enterprise AI market size of up to $30 trillion," instantly igniting heated discussions in global capital markets.
Can this $30 trillion grand narrative really be converted into cold hard cash?
Grand narrative supports high valuation issuance: As it heads toward the public market, anchoring a trillion-dollar TAM is the key trump card supporting its expectation to raise funds on par with SpaceX, aiming to capture the scarcity premium of being a "pure-blood AI leader."
The real gap in commercialization: Currently, top large model companies are still deeply mired in massive computing power procurement and extremely high R&D losses. From "technological amazement" to "substantial replacement of enterprise software budgets," the commercialization conversion rate still faces rigorous testing.
Secondary market perspective shift: Wall Street's view on the AI concept has shifted from early-stage storytelling to focusing on single customer lifetime value (LTV) and computing power gross margin.
This $30 trillion vast frontier—do you think it is the inevitable future of the AI revolution, or just a valuation bubble for IPO fundraising?
#Anthropic #AI #USStocks #IPO #TechStocks #LargeModelsSometimes, you really have to trust the trendline!
This weekly "super Optimus Prime" has directly broken out of the downtrend channel that suppressed it for more than half a year.
If $57,800 is truly the bottom of this cycle, then my previous judgment on the cycle was indeed a bit slow; the bottom came faster, and the market started earlier than the traditional cycle.
The biggest change is still the ETF.
In the past, the focus was mainly on halving, on-chain supply, and retail sentiment.
Now, institutional funds have become stable marginal buyers: the bear market duration may be compressed, and the cycle bottom may be lifted.
The old indicators haven't completely failed; it's just that relying solely on the four-year cycle and extreme signals can no longer explain the current market—
ETF subscriptions, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and policy expectations are all gaining weight.
Honestly, if this cycle has already bottomed, I did miss the most comfortable segment.
I was always waiting for the "last dip," but the market kept forcing shorts out and just took off.
Missing out is definitely frustrating, but chasing a FOMO-driven buy near $80,000 to make up for that regret carries even greater risk.
The weekly breakout indicates the structure has strengthened, but it doesn't mean it will keep rising indefinitely.
Historically, similar "long-term consolidation followed by a single week rise of over 20%" scenarios have a high medium-term continuation rate, but the median maximum pullback afterward is about 14.5%.
Based on this cycle's high, the normal pullback zone is roughly between $68,000 and $72,000.
My plan is simple:
First, in the $72,000 to $74,000 range, if the trendline is retested, I will try a small position to test the waters.
Second, in the $68,000 to $70,000 range, if ETF inflows continue and the weekly chart shows a stop in the decline, I will add positions in batches.
Third, if the weekly candle closes below $65,000, I will treat it as a false breakout and stop bottom-fishing.
Fourth, if the market doesn't pull back and directly holds above $82,000, I won't chase large positions either. I'll wait for the $80,000 to $82,000 range to turn from resistance into support before considering following.
Missing the lowest point doesn't mean the entire cycle is lost.
This time, I'd rather earn less in one segment,
than lose discipline at the hottest emotional moment because of missing out. 🧘
$BTC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Xiao Hei: A new bull market for Bitcoin has already started, and the U.S. Treasury will continue to provide liquidity!!!
Arthur Hayes wrote a long piece last night titled "Same Same But Different," but the core is actually just one thing:
Besent is following the path Yellen took in 2023—when U.S. Treasury yields get too high for the U.S. fiscal system to handle, the Treasury doesn't necessarily need the Fed to openly cut rates or do QE; the Treasury itself will start finding ways to inject liquidity into the market.
2023 is the best example. At that time, the Fed's rates were still above 5%, and it was still shrinking its balance sheet, yet Bitcoin and the Nasdaq still began a major bull run.
Xiao Hei's explanation is:
Yellen issued a large amount of short-term debt, pushing money out of the Fed's RRP from money market funds, with the RRP dropping from about $2.5 trillion to nearly $100 billion. Money moved off the Fed's balance sheet back into the circulating financial system, and risk assets began to take off.
Now Besent is facing the same problem:
U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and long-term Treasury yields are pushing into dangerous territory again.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury suddenly increased the single repurchase size for 10–30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, causing yields to briefly drop and Bitcoin to rebound afterward.
But soon Treasuries were sold off again, with the 10-year yield returning to around 4.7%. The market is basically telling Besent: this amount of money isn’t enough.
So what we really need to watch next is whether the Treasury market will continue to pressure Besent to increase intervention.
Xiao Hei offers three scenarios:
The most aggressive is making 5% an effective yield cap, with unlimited repurchases if long-term yields exceed this level;
A more realistic scenario is gradually expanding Treasury buybacks while increasing short-term debt issuance;
And another option already on the table—directly using nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to buy back long-term debt.
Besent has confirmed the TGA currently holds about $940 billion, and the Treasury is studying using it to fund buybacks.
This is the most valuable part of the article for Crypto.
The U.S. now faces an increasingly difficult vicious cycle:
More debt → higher long-term rates → greater interest expenses → more borrowing needed → market demands higher yields.
If the Treasury doesn’t want this cycle to spiral out of control, it must constantly find ways to suppress long-term rates.
Every "rescue" action for Treasuries may marginally increase dollar liquidity, and Bitcoin happens to be one of the assets most sensitive to dollar liquidity in the world.
So Xiao Hei calls BTC the global liquidity smoke alarm, and I think this is a more important takeaway for Bitcoin than rate cuts.
If the future scenario is: 10-year Treasuries continue pushing toward 5% → Besent keeps expanding buybacks → TGA starts to decline → short-term debt proportion keeps rising, then don’t wait for the Fed to officially announce QE to realize liquidity has already shifted.
Xiao Hei himself disclosed heavy holdings in: BTC, ETH, ENA, ETHFI.
What he’s really betting on isn’t a sudden fundamental change in any coin, but that the U.S., to save its $40 trillion debt market, will ultimately have to re-inject liquidity into the entire financial system. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
Sigh, how long has the Strait situation been going on now? The back-and-forth news keeps shaking us retail investors😭
Personally, what I fear most now isn’t negative news itself, but the repeated fluctuations in the news. Today they say negotiations have made progress, and the coin prices pump; tomorrow sanctions intensify, and those who just bought in get trapped. BTC might be relatively resistant to the drop, but ETH and altcoins are not so sure—when risk sentiment shifts, their declines tend to be faster.
So these days, don’t just chase pumps or sell-offs based on headlines. First, see if the Strait negotiations truly materialize, then check if $BTC can hold its support and if $ETH can keep up. If it’s just a news-driven spike without volume or capital follow-through, a rise and fall is not surprising.
Therefore, the market now is neither purely negative nor purely positive, but a back-and-forth exchange.
If sanctions continue to escalate or new conflicts arise in the Strait, oil prices and risk-off sentiment will likely be pushed up. When capital tightens and the dollar strengthens, high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH usually don’t immediately get treated as "safe havens"; instead, they might get hit first. Especially with high contract leverage, a single piece of news can wash out both longs and shorts.
But if the resumption of navigation negotiations really lands and shipping gradually recovers, $CL and geopolitical risks ease, market sentiment might also take a breather. That doesn’t mean BTC and ETH will necessarily rise immediately; it will still depend on the dollar, interest rates, and on-exchange capital. So in crypto, it all comes down to whether people have the guts.BTC has recently pulled back from its highs, mainly because the market is digesting the previous gains driven by spot ETF inflows and improved risk appetite. The day before, the market was still benefiting from positive factors such as expanding ETF inflows and short covering, but after a short-term rally, profit-taking and fluctuating macro sentiment are causing volatility. BTC remains the most important directional anchor in the entire market. Whether spot funds return, whether volume contracts during the pullback, and whether key psychological levels hold will directly impact the sentiment of altcoins going forward. Currently, it looks more like a high-level consolidation rather than being driven solely by any single piece of news. $BTCTRX's recent pullback has been relatively controlled, with an overall defensive performance. Its strengths lie in stablecoin transfers, on-chain payments, and the real usage demand brought by a mature ecosystem. During market fluctuations, assets with stable on-chain scenarios like this usually show more resilience than pure thematic coins. However, TRX's weakness is also obvious: it lacks explosive narratives, and if capital shifts to high-elasticity sectors, it is easily marginalized. Going forward, attention should be paid to the scale of stablecoin circulation, on-chain transfer activity, and ecosystem application data, as these are the core factors supporting its trend. $TRXThe market is still waiting for a rate cut, but Federal Reserve officials have started to talk about "rate hikes" again
The market has been discussing when the Federal Reserve will cut rates recently, but Boston Fed President Susan Collins suddenly poured cold water on the market.
She stated that the premise for maintaining the current interest rate is that inflation continues to decline. If inflation does not come down soon, further tightening of monetary policy, or even a rate hike, could re-enter the discussion.
This statement is important because the U.S. economy is not currently in a clear recession, economic growth remains close to trend levels, and the labor market remains relatively stable, but inflation is still high.
This means the Fed's biggest problem now is: the economy is not bad enough to force a quick rate cut; inflation is not low enough to allow it to confidently ease policy.
If this situation continues, U.S. Treasury yields may remain high, valuations of tech growth stocks will be suppressed, and the liquidity environment for $BTC and other high-risk assets will deteriorate.
So what the market really needs to guard against now is no longer just a "delayed rate cut."
If inflation becomes stubborn again, the market may even face a scenario that few have seriously considered before: the Federal Reserve raising rates again. Gold's breakout is mainly driven by speculative funds, with the global annual meeting becoming a key risk point!
On August 26, gold has recently maintained strength, with significant volatility at high levels. The weakening dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, concerns over fiscal deficits, and safe-haven demand collectively support gold prices. The recent gold breakout is largely driven by speculative funds such as futures, while physical demand has not yet caught up.
This means gold will be more sensitive to macro events in the short term. The rise driven by speculative funds can quickly form a trend but is also prone to concentrated profit-taking when policy expectations change. The market is currently awaiting the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting speech. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish bias, the dollar and real interest rates may rebound, putting pressure on gold's rally; if the policy tone is dovish, gold prices will have the opportunity to continue advancing.
The background of recent gold trading has also changed. Fiscal sustainability, long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and central bank gold purchases remain medium-term supports, but short-term prices have already accumulated considerable momentum funds. For traders, gold is no longer just a safe-haven asset but increasingly resembles a macro high-beta asset sensitive simultaneously to the dollar, real interest rates, and fiscal risks. Jane Street's Sandisk position is notable for its scale and speed: filings show 7.41M shares, or 5%, on July 30 after a 6.25M-share addition. Still, a large holding is evidence of positioning, not proof that the AI-storage thesis has been settled.
The key distinction is demand quality. NAND and enterprise flash depend less on AI training than HBM, and more on data-center expansion, inference, storage needs and purchasing cycles. My read: the durable signal will be whether orders, pricing, margins and cash flow hold after capacity expands, not the headline size of one investor's stake. Not advice, just analysis.
#JaneStreetAddsSandisk#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
While the US intensifies sanctions on Iran, even blocking crypto addresses, it is also negotiating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. Expectations of war are cooling down, oil prices remain unchanged, and the war premium has been fully discounted. The direct impact on the crypto space is minimal; that amount of capital can't stir the market. The key is that if the Strait remains stable, oil prices stay steady, inflation expectations won't rise, which is good for risk assets; if talks collapse and oil prices surge, the crypto market will take a hit. However, geopolitical factors mainly affect short-term sentiment, just a brief spike, the overall trend still depends on ETFs and market performance, news can't change the trend. Just hold your spot positions steady and don't mess around 😄
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Whether intentional or not, the U.S. government has just validated the two strongest arguments for Bitcoin, and the market has responded accordingly. Multiple driving factors are behind the current surge in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. These include: last week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the "Regulation Crypto Assets," paving a compliant development path for emerging crypto projects; the White House convened a meeting with crypto industry executives, sending a positive signal to the sector. Stimulated by this, the market experienced a short-term rapid rally, catching shorts off guard and forcing them to cover their positions. But the most important catalyst came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent. He ignited last week's rally and created conditions to push Bitcoin toward a new all-time high. Let's review this week, which has been the most critical week for Bitcoin in the past year. Step one: Long-term Treasury intervention. Besent's first move was to announce plans to intervene in the long-term U.S. Treasury market. Last Wednesday, Besent announced that the Treasury would double the scale of long-term bond purchases in its regular repurchase operations, increasing from $2 billion to $4 billion. This announcement came as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. On one hand, this move itself is limited in scale. The U.S. Treasury issues trillions of dollars in debt annually, so repurchases of tens of billions are just a drop in the ocean. But the real key is notOfficial Mascot of the Official Trump Meme (TRUMP/USDT) trades on OKX at $TRUMP $2.296 (+5.61%), maintaining strong upward momentum well above its stacked moving average support cluster: MA5 ($TRUMP $2.264), MA10 ($2.241), and MA20 ($2.221).
Sustaining momentum above $2.264 keeps immediate bullish focus on retesting local peak resistance at $2.312 and pushing toward the 24h high of $2.479.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #OKX.ai ATOM has recently been under relative pressure. Cross-chain and modularity remain the core value points of Cosmos, but the market's demands for the security, value capture, and ecosystem synergy of infrastructure projects have clearly increased. Recent discussions about the security issues of shared EVM components have also made some funds cautious about cross-chain infrastructure. The issue with ATOM is not the lack of narrative, but how the narrative truly translates into token demand: whether inter-chain activity, liquidity, staking, and fee distribution improve is more important than just ecosystem news. Event handling and ecosystem recovery pace will directly affect short-term sentiment. $ATOM #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
The boss has something to say
JaneStreet's 13F filing is out. As of July 30, it held about 7.41 million shares of SanDisk, an increase of 6.25 million shares from before, a 540% rise. SanDisk has directly become JaneStreet's second largest single stock holding, second only to SPY.
This signal is worth noting, but don't overinterpret it.
JaneStreet is not a retail investor or a fund; it is a quantitative market maker.
Its holding logic differs from Cathie Wood's. JaneStreet's holdings are more from a market-making and hedging perspective and do not necessarily indicate a bullish view. But the fact that it is willing to pile SanDisk up to its second largest holding at least shows that at this price level, it considers the risk-reward ratio acceptable.
Timing is right after the pullback
The timing of July 30 is significant. SanDisk had just started to pull back after a big rally on Investor Day. JaneStreet increased its position from over 1 million shares to 7.41 million shares during the decline, buying more as the price fell.
But there are structural issues with the fundamentals
SanDisk surged from 1190 to 1820, a large increase. The Investor Day presentation was indeed solid, with a 93.9 billion long-term contract and an 80% gross margin target. But the pullback in storage stocks shows the market is still struggling. Whether AI storage demand can support the high valuation needs longer-term verification.
JaneStreet's position data is lagging; it's been almost a month since July 30, during which SanDisk has gone through another round of ups and downs. Tracking large funds' positions is useful as a reference but should not be taken as trading instructions.
My own pace
I previously bottomed SanDisk at 1190 and sold at 1368, then shorted at 1380 and got stopped out—I've experienced both sides. No rush now; I'll wait for a proper pullback. JaneStreet's holdings are a medium- to long-term signal, not a reason to chase short-term highs. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is oscillating around 80,000; all longs have been closed, waiting for a pullback. No heavy directional bets before PCE and Walsh's speech.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.WLFI has remained relatively active recently, with the core of market trading still focused on brand awareness, DeFi layout expectations, and community communication capabilities. Its characteristic is strong news-driven momentum; when there is positive news, funds tend to gather quickly, but when sentiment cools down, high volatility is also common. Recently, the overall market risk appetite has not completely faded, providing some support for these highly topical assets. However, what truly determines sustainability is whether the ecosystem products are implemented, whether the token's use cases expand, and the subsequent rhythm of token circulation. Popularity can bring traffic, but retaining funds depends on real progress. $WLFI$CORE Core Chain (Core DAO public chain) ecosystem overview (as of August 2026)
1. Underlying Infrastructure
1. Block Explorer
CoreScan (official explorer), for querying transactions, contracts, and staking addresses.
2. Cross-chain Bridges
- XLink: mainstream cross-chain bridge enabling interoperability of BTC and major EVM chain assets;
- Integrated LayerZero, supporting full-chain message passing;
3. Oracle
Pyth Network (mainstream price oracle, essential for DeFi);
4. RPC Nodes
Official RPC and Ankr provide public node services;
5. Wallet Compatibility
All EVM wallets such as MetaMask, TokenPocket, OKX Wallet can add the Core mainnet.
2. Core Native Track: BTCFi (the biggest highlight of the ecosystem)
1. BTC Staking System (core narrative of the chain)
- Native non-custodial BTC Staking: lock BTC to earn CORE rewards without transferring BTC to third-party custody;
- Dual Staking: stake CORE+BTC simultaneously to increase mining yields;
- Solv Protocol SolvBTC launched on Core: BTC liquid staking certificate, stake BTC to get solvBTC, which can continue to be used in DeFi. A day in the crypto world feels like a year in the real world. Who would have thought that just 14 days ago, everyone was still supporting each other while taking fast-acting heart pills, with the fear index on August 12 only at 27; yet in the blink of an eye, by August 26, that number had surged directly to 74.
This medically miraculous rebound— is it the engine of a bull market starting up, or the blades of a harvester sharpening?
Everyone hold off on popping the champagne. When analysts flipped open their notebooks, they probably felt a chill: the last time the index hit 74 was on October 5, 2025.
What day was that? That was the "decapitation" of a $19 billion leveraged liquidation back then. Just 5 days after the index peaked, the market experienced an epic crash. Now history repeats itself, and it feels like your ex suddenly texting "are you there?"—though your heart flutters, you still sense a big pit behind it.
* Bitcoin accelerated like it was nitro-boosted, climbing from under $68,000 all the way to the $80,000 mark.
* Altcoins went wild, with gains reaching as high as 70%.
This short-term emotional surge indicates that FOMO (fear of missing out) has overtaken rationality in the market. People no longer ask if the coin is worth it, but how much higher it can go. When even the old lady on the street starts asking you what BTC is, it’s usually a sign that leverage is maxed out and risk is overflowing.
On Wednesday, the index slightly retreated to 65, which is a very interesting signal. It shows that some seasoned players have alreadyThis chart is a very typical tragic example of the contract market: countless times of unrealized profits earned, only to give them all back to the market in the end, with the principal shrinking by 90%.
Look at the shape of this profit curve: a surge up to earn a big profit, then a rapid drop, repeating in cycles. The essence is:
When the market moves in their favor, the account surges in the short term; once the market reverses, they choose to stubbornly hold on, refusing to cut losses, continuously adding funds to cover margin and endure floating losses, hoping the market will rebound to break even.
Occasionally, luck allows them to hold on and recover, and the account surges again; but when faced with fat-tail spikes or one-sided markets, it results in deep losses. Over a year, this leads to a direct 90% loss.
This is not trading, it’s gambling-style holding positions, falling into several big traps:
1. Loss aversion + obsession with breaking even: unwilling to cut losses on floating losses, unwilling to accept small losses, continuously adding funds to bet on the market turning around.
2. Hindsight bias: having held on and recovered several times before creates the illusion that "holding on will always recover losses," but encountering one large fat-tail event can severely damage the account.
3. No protection of unrealized profits: all the profits from surges are just unrealized gains on paper, without trailing stop losses or partial take-profits, so when the market reverses, profits are instantly given back.
4. No cooling-off mechanism: after losses, there is no pause for reflection, continuing to pour money in to gamble further, creating a vicious cycle $BTC The crypto market may have already priced in the next wave of U.S. liquidity. Bitcoin surged from $62,000 to above $81,000, fueled by larger Treasury bond buybacks and rumors of up to $950 billion being deployed from the TGA. While this isn’t QE, the temporary liquidity boost could support bonds, lower yields, and push funds into stocks and crypto. However, liquidity could reverse once the Treasury replenishes the TGA.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM 8.26 Afternoon Thoughts
BTC stopped falling and rebounded near 77851, steadily recovering to around 79251 before entering a narrow range consolidation. ETH showed a similar pattern, stabilizing and oscillating after rebounding from the 2484 high point.
Short-term selling pressure has clearly diminished, and the market has entered a stabilization observation period. Ayue's bullish idea given early this morning also yielded profits as expected, entering a long position at 78039 and successfully capturing over 1100 points in profit.
From the daily chart perspective, the Bollinger Bands are clearly opening upwards, and BTC is holding above the middle band, indicating that the bullish trend is dominant. After a low-level rise, continuous bullish candles pushed the price up. Although touching the upper band area brought short-term pressure, the pullback was very limited, maintaining a narrow consolidation at a high level. Currently, the price is building a support platform above the middle band; as long as the pullback does not break this support, the bullish structure remains solid. The upper Bollinger Band continues to provide room for movement, and with the price center gradually moving up, the bullish momentum is sustained. In the short term, each pullback can be seen as momentum accumulation before the next rise, regarded as minor consolidation. The overall trend remains bullish, and the strategy to follow the trend and go long remains unchanged. As long as the support below holds, each stabilization point at the end of a pullback is a safe entry opportunity to build long positions gradually—no need to hesitate.
Trading Suggestions:
BTC: Long near 78000-78500, target 80000-81000.
ETH: Long near 2400-2430, target 2550.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $SKHYNIX SK Hynix token rebound end signal appears, breaking 1200 means a continuation of the downtrend, shorting opportunity arises
SK Hynix token is now at 1218.91, having fallen 74 points from the high of 1292.62, with volume continuously shrinking. My judgment: the rebound has ended, breaking 1200 means a continuation of the downtrend, shorting opportunity arises.
Why bearish? The V-shaped rebound from 1130 to 1240, the volume at the high of 1292 did not exceed the volume in the 1200-1240 range, indicating insufficient buying power at the high, the rebound was resisted at 1292. During the current pullback, volume shrank from 65k to 33k, which looks like light selling pressure, but in fact, it means insufficient buying; no funds are willing to buy at this level. Once the 1200 support is broken, there will be no support below.
1200.76 is the lower edge of the previous platform and also the neckline of the V-shaped rebound. If this level breaks down with volume, it means the V-shaped rebound has failed and the downtrend resumes. In terms of operation, light short positions can be tried at 1220-1230, stop loss at 1245, target 1200-1180; increase short positions if 1200 breaks down with volume, target 1159-1130.
A prudent approach is to wait for confirmation of the break below 1200 before shorting, do not bet on direction above the support level, but the bias is bearish.
The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. $SPCX $BTC $ETH $MU📊 Bitcoin Market – Aug 25, 2026
🟢 Trend: Strong bullish momentum, with BTC around $81,100, up 20%+ this week.
🔺 Resistance: $81K–$82K → Breakout could target $85K–$88K.
🔻 Support: $78K → Stronger support at $76.5K–$77K.
📈 Bullish: Hold $78K + break $82K = further upside.
📉 Bearish: Drop below $78K = possible pullback toward $76.5K–$77K.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM Technical Aspects and Key Levels
Category Key Level Description
Upper Resistance $80,500 - 81,200 Short-term core resistance zone, encountered rejection and pullback here yesterday
Core Resistance $83,000 - 83,500 Location of the 365-day moving average, regarded as the "lifeline," breaking through is needed to open up space
Mid-term Target $85,000 Next target zone after breaking 83k
First Support $78,000 - 78,500 Current core defense line, institutional buying strength appears here
Strong Support $76,000 - 76,500 Next observation zone if 78k is lost $BTC $ETH $CORE #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 2020 was the last time liquidity looked this unusual. QE surged, yields plunged, and capital moved away from sovereign debt into risk assets. Gold rallied. BTC rallied.
Fast-forward to 2026: the Treasury is buying back roughly $950B of its own debt. Different mechanism, similar impact—less duration, tighter supply, and more capital pushed toward risk. The market is starting to notice.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM The AI proxy coins are bearish this time. OpenAI announced the first batch of Jalapeño tests: AI workload per unit power consumption increased by 1.5 to 1.9 times, and end-to-end latency reduced by 1.7 to 3.6 times. Despite the good news, WLD and TAO are pulling back, and the market looks more like it's trading with weakened risk appetite.
TAO is hugging the EMA20 on the 4-hour chart, unable to break through 246.2, with 214.4 as the next support; WLD is weaker, already below EMA20, with 0.3669 as the next liquidity level. The Nasdaq daily chart on the right side has also returned near EMA20, temporarily not providing a floor for the AI sector.
What could overturn my view is TAO reclaiming 246.2, and WLD recovering 0.4212. Until both happen, I don't consider this chip news as a new starting point for AI in the crypto space.
This is only an information summary and personal opinion, not investment advice. Ansem's repeatedly cited judgment is: altcoin markets can break out independently when Bitcoin "grinds itself out sideways," with a peak heat period of about four to six weeks, after which mainstream coins break down and the entire market hits new lows again. Looking at the data, this round of rebound fuel is relatively passive: over $4 billion in shorts were forcibly liquidated within two days, Bitcoin rose from over 60,000 to 81,000 then fell back to around 79,000; Total2 rose more than 24% in three days to return to a trillion, but Bitcoin's market dominance remains about 59.7%, and the altcoin season index is in the thirties, far from the 75 confirmation line. The overlooked downside has two layers: the slope created by forced buying cannot prove genuine demand, and after shorts are cleared, there is a lack of data on who is taking over; if regulatory changes are indeed incremental, simplifying the entire market move as a short squeeze also underestimates structural factors. Both explanations lack verification from on-chain net inflows. The above is a personal viewpoint record and does not constitute any investment advice. $XAUT In the early session, gold prices surged upward to test the highs, after which bullish momentum weakened, and the market faced pressure leading to a pullback and adjustment. In the short term, prices fluctuated back and forth, with a clear intensification of the bulls and bears struggle.
The short-term pullback does not directly indicate a reversal of the major trend; the long-term upward structure remains intact. This is more of a profit-taking digestion and consolidation after the surge.
Trading advice:
Buy on a pullback to 4600-4620, target 4650; if it breaks through, look to 4690; if it does not break, consider reversing to short.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 $BTC Rumors of a US-Iran ceasefire trigger a sharp drop in the energy sector, so why is the crypto market "not rising as it should"? #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
According to Jin10 data, the US and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Once the news broke, the energy and chemical sectors collectively plunged: low-sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil fell more than 8%, SC crude oil dropped over 6%, WTI fell below $80, and Brent crude approached $85.
According to normal logic:
oil price drops → inflation pressure eases → rate cut expectations rise → risk appetite recovers.
Theoretically, this is positive for Crypto, but after BTC surged past $81,000 yesterday, hitting a new high since mid-May, it did not continue to climb.
The problem is: the ceasefire news has not been fully confirmed.
Russian media say the agreement has been reached, but Iran states it will not open immediately, and US officials say there are no negotiation arrangements yet. The market is currently trading on "expectations," not "certainty."
So the biggest risk now is using high leverage to bet on news that could reverse at any time.
My strategy is simple: keep the spot base position unchanged, wait for two signals—either BTC breaks the previous high with volume confirming the positive news for a right-side follow-up; or it pulls back to key support and stabilizes, then gradually enter from the left side.
Before the news is clear, do not chase the first wave, do not bet on the last word.
In high volatility phases, cash is also a position.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.Actually, it's no longer very meaningful to obsess over the "last dip" in the storage sector now.
The market at this point feels more like a tacit "truce period" between bulls and bears—daily fluctuations are small, but there are bottom lines both up and down. If you look at the trends of Western Digital, Kioxia, or even Nanya Technology, you can sense this atmosphere: negative news can't push prices down, and positive news can't drive prices up sharply. Behind this is capital waiting for a signal that can turn vague expectations into clear numbers.
The current stalemate is essentially a tug-of-war between two forces. On one side is the weak downstream end demand (PCs, smartphones), like a wet towel smothering prices; on the other side is the high-bandwidth memory demand driven by AI and the continuous expansion of enterprise-grade SSDs, like embers beneath the surface—looking not very lively, but the heat hasn't dissipated. This "uneven hot and cold" state is the most draining for judgment.
But from my own experience, the longer the sideways movement lasts, the bigger the subsequent market move will be. The market's sluggish reaction to any news right now precisely indicates that pricing power is shifting from short-term traders to medium- and long-term allocators. The trigger at the critical point doesn't necessarily have to be earth-shattering news; sometimes just a capacity guidance adjustment from a leading manufacturer or a cloud provider's capital expenditure exceeding expectations is enough to make capital realign.
As for external risks, such as geopolitical or macro disturbances, I actually think the market has partially priced them in. To put it plainly, the logic of the storage sector hasn't changed; what has changed is people's patience. Endure this "trash time," and leave the rest to be verified by time.6x long ZEC, these kinds of trades look fierce, but actually it's just using leverage to bet on direction. It's thrilling when you win, but really painful when you're wrong.
Position size $79,276, entry price 792.76, quantity 100. Don't just focus on whether it can fly up; first think about whether a single spike can shatter your mindset.
ZEC's volatility isn't gentle to begin with, and with 6x leverage stacked on top, if the price moves against you even a little, the floating loss will snowball. When emotions run high, stubbornly holding on is the easiest way to turn a small mistake into a big hole.
Many people go long not because they understand the market, but because they're afraid of missing out, want to catch the bottom, or want to prove they weren't wrong. The market punishes stubbornness; once the direction is wrong, no matter how big the position, it's a loss.
This kind of trade isn't impossible to do, but you have to first decide where to admit you're wrong and how to set your stop loss. Don't wait until you're passively getting hit to start regretting.
An old saying: cut losses when you should, don't treat forced liquidation as a stop loss. Staying alive is more important than being stubborn.Because many coins in the crypto market have ecosystems, but the ecosystem is large ≠ has deep moats. Some project users come from airdrops, some because of low fees, and others have already formed positive feedback among developers, liquidity, assets, and applications. You can look at these representative projects: $ETH | The biggest moat is liquidity + developers + financial infrastructure. Ethereum is still one of the deepest liquidity layers in DeFi. Official data currently shows its DeFi TVL is about $49B, stablecoin scale about $159B, and a large amount of L2, DeFi, and RWA is built on it. ETH's real strength isn't "TPS", but that others have already built too many things on top. Aave, Uniswap, Lido, Maker/Sky, various L2 and RWA projects...... If you want to move the entire ecosystem, it's not as simple as changing a code repository; you have to move liquidity, developers, users, assets, and applications together. This is the network effect. ⸻ $SOL | The moat is high performance + users + transaction liquidity Solana is taking a different path. It hasn't kept competing with ETH for "financial infrastructure," but is striving to become a highway for high-frequency on-chain applications and transactions. In Q2 2026 data, Solana processed about 9.8 billion transactions, with spot DEX trading volume around $160.8B, and stablecoin supply reaching that level$BTC brothers, you must be staring at the screen so hard your eyeballs are about to pop out by now
No need for that, drink coffee if you want coffee, drink tea if you want tea. It's still consolidating, keep holding your long positions, control your hands, do whatever you need to do,
【BTC】【ETH】 are just grinding sideways here, neither going up nor down, just like you slacking off during overtime—physically at your desk, but mentally on vacation. 📉 or 📈? Stop guessing, the main players love watching you obsess over minute charts, then wake up to find your position gone, still asking "What happened?"
Let's look at some data first: the Fear & Greed Index hit 81 today, extremely greedy. The market was crying and complaining last week, but this week it's full FOMO, emotions flipping faster than turning pages. This round of BTC suddenly strengthened, and many partners, like me, probably didn't prepare in advance and only started paying attention after seeing the market rise.
Actually, there's nothing to regret.
Market opportunities have always existed. What really matters is not that you must participate in every wave, but whether you have prepared in advance when the next opportunity appears.
So during this period, I will organize all the previously active sectors, repeatedly listed coins, and directions that funds continuously focus on.
No rush to chase the market that has already moved.
Do your homework well, build your watchlist, research in advance, and prepare ahead.
Looking for coins only when the market comes is often already a step too late.
Truly comfortable opportunities usually don't start when the whole market is discussing them, but when the market isn't that hot yet, and you already know what you're watching.
Missing one round is not scary.
What’s scary is rushing to catch up after missing out, turning one missed opportunity into a series of mistakes. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $PUMP encountered liquidity squeeze at the key resistance zone of $0.005, with the core conflict stemming from the decline in on-chain trading activity leading to a slowdown in fee buyback support, which sharply conflicts with the spot selling pressure caused by subsequent large token unlocks.
From recent capital flows, the platform's 1.25% trading fee share has declined in sync with the cooling of Meme activity on the Solana chain, directly weakening the deflationary effect of net buybacks in the secondary market. Previously, cumulative burns accounted for over 15% of total supply, but this burn increment is insufficient to fully absorb the spot chips sold off in batches by high-level speculators.
The current priority order driving dominance is: fee buyback capital flow determined by on-chain trading volume > token unlock-induced selling pressure > liquidity replenishment from retail investors chasing highs in the secondary market. After the platform adjusted from 100% full burn of income to retaining 50% for operations, the absolute price protection ability of buyback cushions has been halved.
The bullish scenario requires a renewed explosion of on-chain Meme trading activity, with daily fee income returning to the million-dollar scale. Under this condition, 50% of the secondary market's hard buyback capital flow will again squeeze the circulating supply, pushing the price to break through the $0.005 resistance zone and advance toward deeper liquidity order book levels.
If, when the price reaches the $0.005 resistance, the depth of spot buy orders does not follow through, and instead frequent long lower shadows appear at high levels, the bullish projection immediately fails, indicating speculators are using the rebound liquidity to distribute in batches.
The bearish scenario manifests as a continuous decline in new coin trading and graduation migration frequency on-chain, with buyback funds insufficient to absorb unlock selling pressure. The price will then break below the lower boundary of the high-level consolidation range, and long liquidations in the derivatives market will further amplify the downward breakout volatility.
When the buyback burn execution frequency abnormally surges, or the protocol temporarily raises the buyback ratio to 100%, the seller liquidity squeeze will be directly interrupted, and the downtrend conditions will become invalid.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on whether the protocol's daily net fee income can maintain above the buyback threshold, and changes in the depth of spot buy orders near the $0.005 resistance.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？$BTC $ETH today's market also unfolded again as expected, suggesting entering long positions near 78300-78000, currently having effectively realized over 900 points of upward space.
Our intraday solid layout was also operated synchronously, entering long at 78302 below, taking profit and exiting at 79094 in the afternoon, capturing 792 points of space.
The market still remains consolidating within the range, the overall one-sided trend is not yet obvious, the major cycle's bullish trend has not ended, and there is still a probability of further rally. We continue to layout around the support area, treating it as a range first, and will look for continuation upon breakout.
BTC longs around 78300-78000, target near 80000
ETH longs around 2440-2410, target near 2500-2530 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 This round of rebound rally has reached a point where a set of data deserves everyone's calm reflection.
Since the recent low, BTC's maximum increase has reached 37%, while ETH has shown even stronger elasticity, surging up to 60%. The short-term gains are very impressive, but analyzing from the perspectives of market, macroeconomics, and capital flow, the internal structure of this rise is unhealthy, and its sustainability is highly questionable.
There are three major bullish logics circulating in the market: the U.S. Treasury increasing its repurchase of U.S. debt, the advancement and implementation of crypto legislation, and the SEC's easing regulatory stance. Combined with large-scale short squeeze in the futures market, many traders directly take these as signals for a new bull market. However, upon closer examination, the only real substantial liquidity benefit is from the Treasury repurchase, and the actual effect of this policy has been seriously overestimated by the market.
It is crucial to distinguish a key concept: Treasury bond repurchase is not equivalent to Federal Reserve QE money printing.
The essence of repurchase is mostly issuing short-term bonds to raise funds to buy back long-term old bonds that are thinly traded in the market, which is a debt maturity replacement operation. The entire process does not create new dollars, the overall national debt size does not decrease, it merely optimizes the trading liquidity of long-term bonds, alleviating market stagnation in long bonds, and does not inject incremental dollar liquidity into the entire financial system. It can temporarily improve market sentiment and lower long-term yields, but cannot fundamentally provide continuous new liquidity for risk assets.
As for crypto legislation implementation and regulatory easing, most remain at the expectation stage, with unclear details and timelines. In the short term, these mainly boost sentiment and have not yet translated into substantial, large-scale inflows of new capital.
The large part of the price increase caused by short squeeze is itself a consumptive rally. The buying pressure from short covering is a one-time force; once the short positions are cleared, this push disappears immediately and lacks long-term sustainability.
Overall, the current market resembles an internal battle of existing funds, with capital rotating and self-consuming within the market, a typical "stepping on one foot with the other" scenario. Without continuous inflow of new dollars from outside to support the bottom, prices driven solely by sentiment, contract closing, and policy expectations have a very fragile foundation. Once the positive factors are fully priced in and expectations fail, profit-taking will concentrate and the speed and magnitude of the correction will exceed most people's predictions.
Based on this logic, I judge that from mid to late September through early October, there is a high probability of a deep market pullback, with prices likely to retest the origin point near where this rally started. This hypothesis should be verifiable by the market within about a month.
Of course, predictions are not conclusions. Unexpected black swan events such as ETF funds flowing in continuously beyond expectations or the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts could change the rhythm. But before real incremental liquidity lands, maintaining caution about this rapid rally and not getting carried away by short-term gains is always the safer approach.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳