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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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根据目前伊朗与阿曼的公布的临时航道来看,很明显,伊朗在用实际行动来对霍尔木兹海峡进行监管与掌控 临时航道宽度约7海里≈13公里,按照此前8月4日的资料,入口大概率贴近阿曼海域,但是后续主要途径伊朗海域驶入,驶入由伊朗监管 驶出通过伊朗海域进入,途径阿曼海域驶出,由阿曼决定是否放行,但是需要通知伊朗,伊朗有知情权。 另外,以目前的消息来看,新的临时航道启用,意味着原本南部通道将要关闭,未来几个月的所有船只都要经过临时航道通过 其实整体来看,伊朗已经不在依赖政治上对海峡主权控制了,而是进入实际监管与掌控,这一点对美国是非常不利的,那么在什么条件下美国可以接受这个现实? #美扩大对伊制裁,海峡复航谈判推进
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
The US, Iran, and Russia are taking frequent actions, actively promoting positive developments in the situation! 1. Iran has disclosed for the first time the specific structure of the temporary route. The new temporary channel is 7 miles wide, with the section entering the Persian Gulf passing through Iranian waters, and the exit part of the route also passing through Iranian waters. The new route is basically under Iran's main control. 2. The US has begun to restore the dispatch of diplomatic personnel to the Middle East. Diplomats from Middle Eastern countries and their families can return to the region, which can be seen as a military de-escalation. 3. Russian sources say that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement. This news alone is not highly credible, but combined with another report that the CIA director secretly visited Russia yesterday, during which Ukraine temporarily stopped attacks on Russia. Combining these two pieces of news greatly increases the credibility of the Russian information. Next, it depends on the specific dynamics between the US and Iran. Stage summary: The energy market has already accelerated pricing based on the current positive developments. International crude oil and US oil have further fallen to critical points. Going forward, it remains to be seen whether the US and Iran will issue official announcements to confirm Russia's statements. It is worth mentioning that, according to data websites, although the situation has improved, the navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz yesterday is still not ideal. The temporary strait between Iran and Oman is basically under Iran's main control, which may increase the difficulty of US recognition and may also cause continued disputes over the strait between the two sides. #美扩大对伊制裁,海峡复航谈判推进

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