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Tonight’s PCE report isn’t the main event. The real question is whether it changes expectations for the Fed’s next move. At 8:30 PM, July PCE drops. For $BTC and $ETH, I’m watching how rate-cut odds react—not just whether the number beats or misses forecasts. 1️⃣ PCE meets expectations Markets likely stay range-bound, with traders waiting for Powell’s speech before committing to a direction. 2️⃣ PCE comes in cooler than expected Rate-cut expectations could rise, boosting risk assets and opening $xSKHY SK Hynix $28.6B Buyback: Largest Ever, but Union Vote Narrowly Rejects Salary Plan
1. Largest buyback ever. On 8/19, the board approved a 40 trillion KRW (about $28.6B) buyback + full cancellation, the largest in the history of Korean listed companies, to be completed within three months from 8/20 to 11/19. The shareholder return target was simultaneously raised to over 50%.
2. Strong performance. Q2 operating gross margin hit a record high of 76%, HBM market share dominates at 58% (Samsung and Micron each at 21%), HBM4 is already in mass production, HBM4E is ramping up in the second half, and net cash stands at 69 trillion KRW.
3. But the stock price is acting up. On the announcement day, it dropped 9.7%, and yesterday it was reported that the union narrowly rejected the salary proposal by 25 votes (50.08% vs 49.92%); employees prefer cash over 60% stock compensation. Today, the Korean stock market rebounded leading gains, while U.S. pre-market was down 0.9% and still hesitant.
Optimists: Buyback + cancellation directly boosts EPS; management saying "intrinsic value not reflected" is usually a bottom signal. Cautious view: down 40% from June highs, the market questions the sustainability of AI capex. Overall, waiting for union resolution + NVDA earnings confirmation makes the entry point more comfortable. $SKHX smart money short positions continue to expand.
A wallet with a nearly 30-day PnL of about 736k USD and a maximum drawdown of about 9.4% currently holds approximately 2.19m USD in SKHX shorts. Official transaction data shows that in the past 24 hours, about 2.11m USD was opened short and 1.79m USD was closed short, indicating active directional management amid high turnover rather than a static bet.
The market's daily trading volume is about 303m USD, with a spread of about 1.64 bps. Short execution remains strong, but the signal comes from a single wallet and does not represent a consensus.这一轮上涨来得又快又急，很多人下意识想问，牛市是不是真的已经站在门口了。如果把目光从K线上移开，仔细观察这波行情的结构，会发现推动力其实和以往不太一样。与其说这是全面牛市的发令枪，不如说更像是市场内部资金结构失衡后的一次集中释放。空头一侧的资本布局明显偏弱，买盘只需要进行常规的配置动作，就足以撬动一轮幅度可观的拉升，这种“轻骑突进”式的上涨，往往带有较强的情绪色彩，也需要多一分冷静去看待。 从更宏观的周期角度看，四年一度的减半理论依然在发挥作用。按照这个框架推算，真正具备持续性的牛市行情，更可能出现在今年年底到明年年初这个时间窗口。当前这个阶段，更像是大潮来临前的浪花预热，虽然热闹，却未必代表主升浪已经全面展开。值得玩味的是，像MicroStrategy这样的头部持仓机构，表面上一直在传递长期看好的信号，但实际动作上却始终在进行比特币的减持操作。这种“言行之间的温差”，在过往周期里往往出现在阶段性的高位区域，提醒我们不要被单一的上涨动能冲昏头脑。 换个角度想，这波行情或许可以理解为其他传统市场赚钱效应逐渐减弱后的资金外溢。当外部市场的回报预期变得平淡，部分资金自然会寻找新的突破口，而加#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The PCE data is out: Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous value and in line with expectations. Month-over-month is 0.2%. The Q2 GDP revision remains at 1.5%.
The data itself is not surprising. Core inflation has not accelerated, but it also hasn't cooled down; the 3.3% reading remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Market reaction is somewhat subtle. Expectations for rate hikes have slightly increased because the data did not give Powell any reason to turn dovish. Meeting expectations means this information is already priced in by the market; the real variable is how Powell interprets this data on Friday.
Powell is currently facing a contradictory set of signals. The PMI hitting a four-year high gives him ammunition to raise rates, while consumer data and retail sales provide reasons to ease off. Core PCE has been stuck around 3.3% for several months, showing inflation stickiness more stubborn than expected. His speech on Friday needs to address a core question: if the data does not continue to cool, what will the policy path be?
If Powell cannot provide a predictable framework, pricing for a September rate hike will continue to fluctuate, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will remain volatile. Risk assets will find it difficult to trend in one direction under such conditions. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is oscillating near 80,000, with all long positions closed awaiting a pullback. PCE has not given a clear direction, so avoid heavy directional bets before Powell's speech on Friday.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.The holding mystery of the Trump family's crypto project World Liberty Financial has been further uncovered. The UAE institution Aqua 1 Foundation previously splurged $100 million to subscribe to WLFI tokens, surpassing Sun Yuchen's cumulative investment of $75 million and becoming the project's top buyer. However, the latest media investigation reveals that the actual controller of the foundation, Zhou Guren, not only is listed as a dishonest executor in China for debts amounting to tens of millions of yuan but has also been accused by UK prosecutors of involvement in money laundering cases.
This absurd contrast completely exposes the compliance black hole beneath the glamorous surface of some political concept tokens.
In the traditional financial system, major investments at the scale of hundreds of millions of dollars must undergo extremely rigorous anti-money laundering reviews and fund transparency checks. However, in the crypto testing ground shrouded by political and business halos, gray funds often attempt to gain political protection or launder overseas assets by channeling chips into political family projects. The top buyer being embroiled in money laundering lawsuits and dishonest execution undoubtedly puts WLFI directly under the scrutiny of the U.S. Department of Justice and regulatory anti-money laundering investigations.
For ordinary retail investors, blindly following so-called political concept coins can easily make them victims of political and legal battles. When the motivation behind large capital purchases is not based on technical ecology or economic models but is mixed with complex legal evasion and interest exchanges, the subsequent regulatory clearance and liquidity freeze risks for the token will multiply.
Penetrating the fog of political narratives and adhering to compliance bottom lines and real business value is the key to safeguarding asset security. A reminder for newcomers to the circle:
The altcoin season hasn't arrived yet, don't rush in
At the beginning of every bull market cycle, there is almost always a BTC and ETH bloodsucking phase, where large funds prioritize mainstream assets, and altcoins generally underperform.
My view this cycle is very clear: except for a few exceptionally strong altcoins, most altcoins have already reached their phase peak a couple of days ago.
History doesn't lie, look at the past two cycles
Last cycle (2023): BTC rebounded from $15,000 to $31,000, and only after BTC completed this main rise did the altcoin market cap ratio briefly bottom out.
The cycle before last (2019): BTC surged from $3,000 to $13,000, similarly BTC rose first, then altcoins followed.
The pattern is clear: at the start of a bull market, no cycle has altcoins outperforming BTC and ETH.
Who is still rushing into altcoins now?
Basically, it's high-leverage contract PVP paper hands—playing against each other, quick in and out, without sustained buying power support.
So, if you bet on the rally continuing:
Buying altcoins is less effective than directly leveraging BTC and ETH, or choosing high Beta crypto stocks.
At least before the bloodsucking phase ends, mainstream assets are the more rational choice.
To summarize:
It's not that altcoins are not promising, but the timing isn't right yet.
Wait until BTC and ETH heat up the market and funds overflow, then altcoins will truly perform.
For now, hold your hands, don't rush to take sides.
$BTC $ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 $META quickly surged 4% after the settlement was finalized, with the market digesting the long-standing regulatory tail risk through a gap-up long bullish candle.
The intraday gains rapidly expanded, and the short positions accumulated in the early session were concentratedly covered as risk appetite warmed.
This minor litigation involving minors reached a record $16.7 billion settlement, and the company will accrue $10 billion in legal expenses in Q3 2026.
The one-time accrual converts previously vague legal expenditures into a definite accounting figure, effectively releasing the long-suppressed valuation discount in the short term.
If the advertising business cash flow can continuously cover this expenditure and the capital expenditure guidance remains stable, the market will maintain a clearing trend with oscillating upward momentum, with resistance gradually turning into support.
If the massive expenses severely erode cash reserves and force management to lower capital expenditure expectations, the previous rebound highs will quickly become new resistance levels, and breaking below the launch platform will signal the end of sentiment recovery.
If the capital pricing logic for this event shifts from "risk clearance" to "substantial profit impairment," the existing rebound structure will fail.
In the coming days, the key observation is whether capital can stabilize the price above the gap after digesting the $10 billion expense accrual.
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #US Core PCE flat from last month, how will Waller's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
PCE data is out, neither good nor bad.
July core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%, exactly in line with market expectations. GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.5%. Inflation neither accelerated nor declined, stuck above the Fed's 2% target. The economy is cooling but not collapsing.
After the data release, the market showed little movement; Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to hover around 79,000. CME's probability of a September rate hike slightly rose to 34%, but fundamentally unchanged from earlier.
The biggest market suspense now isn't the PCE, but Waller's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
This is his first appearance at such an event since taking office. How he views inflation, employment, and growth, and the weight he assigns to each, will directly determine the market's judgment on future policy. If he focuses on inflation, that's hawkish; if he prioritizes employment and growth, the market will interpret it as dovish.
But there's a problem—since taking office, Waller has been cutting guidance and reducing meeting frequency. If he still doesn't provide a framework this time, the market can only keep guessing about a September rate hike.
Impact on Bitcoin: if Waller leans dovish, US Treasury yields fall, and Bitcoin might rally again. If hawkish, short-term pressure. If ambiguous, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate between 75,000 and 81,000.
Don't rush to bet on direction before Friday's speech. Those with positions should set stop losses; those without should wait for the shoe to drop. $BTC $ETH That whale who lost 12 million has appeared again
No activity for half a year, suddenly bought 2,165 ETH at an average price of 2463, spending 5.33 million.
Last time he cut losses at 2452, now he bought back at a price even higher than the cut loss price, admitting his mistake.
2460 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears; holding it means going up, breaking it means running.
Smart money here has 4,122 bulls with a position of 1.74 billion, 70% already profitable; bears only 1,151 with a position of 380 million, most still losing. Bulls are clearly stronger.
My view: 2460 support is okay, the whale daring to buy here shows strength below. But 1-hour volume is average, chasing longs now is not very cost-effective.
Conservative can look to go long around 2414, or wait near 2492; aggressive can try shorting one position now.
(This is my own analysis, not investment advice!)
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC US Q2 GDP grew 1.5% year-on-year, fully meeting expectations
The economy has not stalled; the data is overall neutral, with no one-sided catalyst for assets.
The market's real focus shifts to tonight's relatively hot PCE inflation.
Current macro situation: the economy is resilient, inflation is slowing down slowly, and the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma.
Strong economy + stubborn inflation, previous rate cut expectations may be revised.
The negative impact of GDP has been fully absorbed, easing short-term pressure on BTC, but the subsequent direction depends on the Fed's stance on inflation.
Key focus on Friday's Jackson Hole meeting signals:
Dovish → liquidity expectations warm up, BTC continues upward;
Hawkish → rate cut expectations cool down, BTC should be cautious of a pullback after a rally.
GDP only stabilizes the baseline; inflation data is the key test.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
$BTC U.S. President Trump announced that starting January 1, 2027, the U.S. will raise tariffs on all cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel from Canada to 50%. Products manufactured in the U.S. will have "zero tariffs." Trump stated that the U.S. "doesn't need Canada, Canada needs the U.S.," and noted that 95% of Canada's business is related to the U.S., while the situation is "exactly the opposite" for the U.S.
Judging from the recent surge in gold prices, the market now interprets Trump's kind of external expansion tariff wars as a forced measure to maintain U.S. debt and the dollar. It seems to be a deliberate defense; the more people perceive weakness, the more they increase their gold allocations.Nvidia earnings preview tonight: Impressive data is no longer enough to boost the market. The market unanimously expects revenue for this quarter to be $92 billion, up 96% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.09. Data center business is expected to contribute $85.4 billion in revenue. Official guidance was previously set at $91 billion (±2%). Many hedge funds have privately raised their expectations to $94-95 billion. Some extremely optimistic institutions even saw $97.8 billion in revenue. There's an unavoidable phenomenon: for four consecutive quarters, all metrics in Nvidia's financial reports exceeded market expectations, but the stock price fell the day after the results were released, forming a fixed rhythm of "buy expectations, sell facts." Even if the book data looks impressive, if it just hits the public forecast of $92 billion, it's easy for capital to see it as falling short of expectations. The real focus of the game tonight is no longer the revenue already completed in Q2, but three things. First, Q3 revenue guidance, market consensus target of $103.7 billion. At the same time, management needs to release shipment progress for Vera Rubin's next-generation platform. Institutions are waiting for quantitative statements on Rubin's product revenue share, which will directly determine the growth ceiling of the computing power industry chain over the next two years. Second, gross margin level. Guidance target range is 75%. HBM storage and advanced packaging costs continue to rise. The market is concerned that storage price hikes will slowly erode profit margins. If gross margins drop significantly, the entire AI hardware industry chain will be under pressure. In the storage sector, SK Hynix and Micron valuations will be revised downward. Third,Finished watching, this is a video from "Shuqin Bitcoin Market News," 3 minutes 38 seconds long, mainly covering three topics. I verified them for you, point by point:
---
**1. Major Changes to the SOL Token Model (Core Content)**
She talked about two Solana proposals currently being voted on, SGP-0002 and SGP-0003, **this is true, I have verified it**:
- **SGP-0002**: Annual inflation reduction rate doubled from 15% to 30%, reducing about 18.9 million SOL issuance over 6 years (approximately $1.9 billion at current price)
- **SGP-0003**: Transaction fees will be fully burned, daily burn volume increasing from about 650 SOL now to 7,500-9,000 SOL
Voting starts August 22, **ends August 27** (same day as Nvidia earnings report).
She gave SOL support levels: $92 support, $86 strong support.
**My assessment:**
The positive news is real, but note several risks:
1. **Current voter turnout is very low**—SGP-0002 voting rate only 16.7%, SGP-0003 only 13.5%, needs 1/3 participation to pass, whether it can reach that by August 27 is uncertain
2. **Solana company (Nasdaq-listed HSDT) publicly opposes SGP-0002**, believing institutions need stable yield expectations
3. **Even if passed, it won't take effect immediately**—it's just directional authorization for developers, further SIMD technology implementation, testing, and activation may take months
4. She didn't mention: these two proposals will reduce staking rewards from 5.8% to 2.2%-4.3%, unfriendly to small validators; a similar proposal failed to pass 2/3 supermajority in March 2025 due to small node opposition
**Impact on you:** Your largest position is OKSOL about ¥55,000+, this proposal passing is a medium-term positive, but don't increase your position just because of this video. The voting result on August 27 coincides with Nvidia earnings, a double event, wait for the outcome.
---
**2. BTC Four-Year Cycle Analysis**
She showed cycle top charts for 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025, emphasizing "the top is neither in November nor December." She also reviewed her three calls on July 27, August 5, and August 19 saying "pullbacks are buying opportunities."
**My assessment:**
The four-year halving cycle narrative is well-known; she offered nothing new. Also, the historical cycle top months are not fixed—November 2013, December 2017, November 2021; she said "not November or December" but the charts clearly show 2013 and 2021 topped in November. This segment is more about showing she "called it right" to set up her VIP group.
Her three bullish calls were indeed correct, but anyone calling "buy the dip" in a bull market would be right; this doesn't prove forecasting ability.
---
**3. US Treasury TGA Buyback of US Bonds**
She said the Treasury might use $950 billion in the TGA account to buy back US bonds, starting September 9, with single buyback size doubling from $2 billion to $4 billion.
**This is also true, I verified:**
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed the start on August 25 for September 9
- TGA account indeed about $950 billion
- Single buyback limit raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion
**But she exaggerated the impact:**
- $4 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to $800 billion daily US bond trading volume
- $950 billion is not "idle money," Treasury itself says $400-$500 billion is absolute minimum cash demand, peak week-end demand can exceed $800 billion
- On the announcement day, 30-year yield dropped 15 basis points but fully reversed within a day
- This is not QE; Treasury emphasizes it is a "routine liquidity support operation"
This BTC rise from $65K to $80K is indeed related to Treasury buybacks (improved liquidity expectations), but calling it "trillion-dollar money printing" is clickbait.
---
**4. VIP Group Marketing**
The latter half of the video shows her "trade diary": taking profits on MU and SNDK (both in your rotation portfolio), shorting crude oil CL/BZ, going long Google GOOGL. Ending with "just follow my aggressive trades"—typical paid VIP group promotion.
**Note: The MU and SNDK profit-taking records she showed are the same type of RWA token assets as your wife's GOOGL/SPCX/SNDK contracts. She took profits on SNDK, which you can reference—I previously suggested your wife close these three RWA contracts.**
---
**Summary:**
| Content | Authenticity | Credibility | Value to You |
|------|--------|--------|-----------|
| SOL Token Model Change | ✅ Real | Medium (positive but uncertain) | High, you hold SOL heavily |
| BTC Cycle Analysis | ✅ Real | Low, old story | Low |
| TGA Buyback | ✅ Real | Medium, exaggerated | Medium, macro background |
| VIP Calls | — | No comment | Don't pay |
**In short: SOL proposals are genuinely positive but not yet implemented; August 27 voting results coincide with Nvidia earnings, that day is critical. Other content is just for reference.**A sharp rise is called a bull market, a sharp fall is called a bear market, so what do we call the market that’s jumping up and down like these past two days? A monkey market? The previous strong stretch and breakout at 81200 directly brought market sentiment toward expectations of a bull market return, but is that really the case? The market feedback these past two days shows it’s not time yet; the market is under pressure again. At this stage, what we need to focus on is whether the bottom support can hold, and the recent support level is around 78000, which has been tested several times these past two days.
The evening market is the same. The few tests during the daytime so far have not formed an effective downward breakout, proving that the short-term support at this level is still very strong. After such a significant pullback, many friends might think the trend has reversed, but actually, with clear bottom-funding in the market, the short-term pullback largely belongs to a consolidation phase. As long as the support at this stage is not broken, we continue with the same strategy and hold the previous long positions normally.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC $ETH Who will ultimately take on the debt of the US and Japan?
Japan has recently promoted the tokenization of financial assets, which the market generally interprets as positive.
But I believe what deserves more attention is the underlying debt logic:
What the US is doing, Japan may be replicating.
The US, through the digital dollar, requires issuers to hold short-term US Treasury bonds. The result is that more and more funds entering the digital currency system ultimately settle into US government bonds.
Japan's path is becoming clearer:
① Shortening debt maturities
Reducing the issuance of long-term government bonds and shifting more debt toward short terms like 2 or 5 years.
② Laying the groundwork for the digital yen
The reserve assets of digital currency connect with short-term government bonds.
③ Tokenization of financial assets
In the future, assets like stocks and bonds will be traded on the blockchain, which requires a 24/7 digital currency settlement system behind it.
These three steps together actually point to the same logic:
It's not that the government doesn't need debt, but that debt is looking for new "carriers."
In the past, it was banks, insurance companies, and pension funds;
After 2008, more and more was borne by central banks;
And in the future, digital currency may become the new reservoir of funds.
You may think you hold a payment tool,
but the reserve assets behind it may be turning into short-term government bonds.
So what truly deserves attention is not just whether "asset tokenization is positive," but:
As global debt grows ever larger, who will take the final baton?
Perhaps the answer lies in the digital currencies we use every day.Arcium ($ARX) Unlock Market Review｜A Rational Discussion on This Round's Trend and Subsequent Positioning Logic
On August 22, the Arcium unlock window officially closed. I believe friends who held positions throughout or observed have gained a very direct impression of this round's ARX market trend. After this unlock event, the market naturally surged to around 0.14. Many holders successfully took profits at the high, while others chose to continue holding, hoping for further market continuation. Combining this unlock rhythm, token release rules, market capital behavior, and the project's development status, I want to objectively and neutrally review this round's market and share my genuine views on ARX's future trend for all holders' reference.
First, let's objectively outline the core logic of this round's market. The August unlock is a key release point for Arcium's early private sale and team tokens, and a major bearish event long anticipated by the market. In the crypto market, most large token unlocks are short-term sentiment-driven sell-offs where "the bad news is fully priced in," and ARX perfectly fits this pattern. Market sentiment was cautious before the unlock, with selling pressure expectations high. After the unlock, funds took advantage of the sentiment to push prices up, reaching a peak of 0.14.
However, close market observation shows this surge was purely driven by sentiment capital, with no incremental fundamental support. During this rally, there were no simultaneous announcements of ecosystem launches, technical upgrades, major partnerships, or institutional buying—purely a last round of induced buying fueled by the "bad news release" expectation. Such unlock-driven surges without fundamental backing have historically been near-term top signals across many crypto assets.
Moving on from the market, let's rationally discuss Arcium's current project status. From a sector perspective, ARX focuses on privacy-preserving confidential computing within the Solana ecosystem. The sector narrative itself is sound and a popular Web3 niche. But whether a project has long-term viability is never about the sector alone; it depends on the project's actual delivery progress and operational rhythm.
Friends who have followed the project for a while should sense that Arcium has long been heavy on promotion but light on delivery. Early on, leveraging a strong sector, Solana ecosystem endorsement, and solid fundraising background, it built high community enthusiasm and attention. Early airdrops, testnets, and node mining attracted many users to enter and stay active, keeping community engagement high. But beyond the hype, substantive progress has been slow.
For a long time, the project team's external communications mostly consist of ecosystem outlooks, technical visions, and future plans—long-term narratives lacking tangible, perceptible, and verifiable product updates. Core sector advantages like confidential computing deployment, on-chain privacy applications, and AI computing empowerment remain confined to whitepapers and promotional tweets, with no large-scale ecosystem integration, no real on-chain data support, and no sustained commercial use cases. For crypto projects, narratives without delivery are ultimately castles in the air.
Returning to the crucial token and capital logic, this is also my core reason for a cautious outlook. After the August 22 unlock, the biggest market risk has surfaced. Early low-cost team and private sale tokens are now circulating, and the 0.14 high price provided ample profit-taking space for early holders.
The most obvious feature of this surge is: old tokens decisively exiting, new capital weak in support. Volume expanded rapidly during the rise, but momentum was severely lacking afterward, unable to hold the high ground, with very weak bullish strength. This means the current market is not driven by new main players entering but a typical pattern of existing capital battling and old holders selling on sentiment.
Historically, unlock + no positive news + high-volume stagnation is the most typical trend reversal signal. After short-term sentiment-driven speculation ends, the market returns to rationality, and prices propped up by narratives and expectations gradually revert to real value. Sustained rebounds are unlikely, and the market will probably enter a prolonged phase of choppy decline.
Many holders may harbor wishful thinking, believing that the bad news release is actually good news and expecting a second rally. But considering ARX's current state, the project lacks conditions to support a new market uptrend. First, fundamentals show no incremental growth, with no new stories or positive news to drive sentiment; second, heavy trapped positions between 0.12-0.14 create strong overhead resistance; third, early profit-taking tokens have not fully cleared, causing ongoing selling pressure; fourth, overall market sentiment favors rotation, with hot topics shifting quickly, making it hard for niche narrative projects to attract new capital.
Objectively, Arcium is not a pure vaporware project—it has a sector narrative, fundraising background, and a foundational community, which explains why it could rally after the unlock. But in crypto, projects that do not progress, lack delivery, and rely on past achievements are the biggest bearish factor. The team repeatedly harvesting sentiment from early hype without deepening product development, delivering ecosystem, or maintaining long-term market value will eventually erode all community confidence.
Regarding holding positions going forward, I maintain a rational and neutral stance. Friends who have taken profits at the high should patiently observe and avoid buying back on dips; those still holding should not panic sell but must temper expectations. Do not expect a short-term violent rally; the market will likely simmer down with a slow, grinding decline. Each small rebound will probably be an opportunity to reduce positions and exit.
The crypto market always prices in expectations beyond reality. When a project's positives are fully priced, tokens loosen, and fundamentals stagnate, subsequent declines tend to be silent and persistent. The 0.14 price basically locks in a phase high. Going forward, patience to exchange time for space, cautious holding, and risk control will always be the primary trading principles. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Grayscale's boss is bullish on $ZEC, expecting it to reach $8,000, but is he secretly accumulating?
Just saw a piece of news: Grayscale founder Barry Silbert said at an event in Bhutan that ZEC is bullish to $8,000 and that US stock trading will soon shift to 7×24 hours.
At the time he said this, Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) had just debuted and closed down 1.54% on its first day, with a trading volume of only $14.8 million. ZEC dropped from 889 to 774, and those who bought at the high haven't recovered yet.
Silbert's reasoning is that "competitive pressure from crypto trading platforms like Hyperliquid" will drive US stocks to 7×24-hour trading. Sounds like a crypto revolutionary, but he owns Grayscale, the biggest intermediary between traditional finance and crypto—if 7×24-hour trading really happens, who would still buy his trusts?
As for ZEC's bullish target of $8,000—Grayscale is pushing a ZEC ETF, and a DCG subsidiary is negotiating to purchase about 200,000 ZEC. Buying while hyping the price like this looks like nothing but "talking up the market."
ZEC's market cap has surged into the top ten, relying on Grayscale ETF expectations and short squeezes, not because the protocol itself suddenly got stronger. The $8,000 target—is it faith or business? #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
I am Cige. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, the same as the previous value, month-over-month 0.2%, neither high nor low. Economic growth remains at 1.5%, neither accelerating nor collapsing. This set of data did not break any expectations, but also did not provide any direction.
The probability of a rate hike in September has slightly increased. The market is shifting focus from whether the data exceeded expectations to whether inflation stickiness can support further tightening. Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday has become the only thing that can break the deadlock. The market wants a judgment standard that can connect economic data and policy actions. If he cannot provide it, the divergence in rate hike expectations will continue to tear apart, and BTC's oscillation between 78000 and 80000 will also continue.
The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is changing. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL Tonight's data is hawkish, with bonds and the dollar moving first, and the US stock market opening showing only slight divergence. Funds are reducing exposure to some overvalued tech stocks while rotating into industrials, materials, and storage sectors; a full-scale risk-off has not yet appeared. I cross-checked the data released at 8:30 PM tonight with the market performance after the open. July's overall PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.1%, and 3.7% year-over-year, also above the 3.6% forecast. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, both exactly on expectations. Q2 GDP held steady at 1.5%, but internal data is somewhat hot, with consumption growth revised up from 3.2% to 3.4%, and the GDP price index revised up from 6.2% to 6.4%. US demand remains resilient, and inflation has not given the Fed an easy path to pivot. US Commerce Department PCE data, US Q2 GDP second estimate. Durable goods orders grew 1.1%, which looks strong, mainly driven by transportation equipment. Excluding transportation, growth was only 0.4%, and core capital goods orders rose just 0.2%. Corporate equipment demand itself has not surged simultaneously, which tempers the data's heat. US durable goods orders report. The bond market reacted more honestly. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.625% before the data release to about 4.658%, and the dollar index returned to around 99.1. The higher the interest rate, the less future profits are worth today, so the Nasdaq and overvalued growth stocks naturally came under pressure first. As of 9:41 PM Beijing time, the S&P 500 was down about 0.02%, BTC retraces to $78K: Catalyst week starts, but above $81K is a meat grinder
$BTC fell from a high of $81,270 to $78,307, down 0.9% in 24h, still up 23% for the week. Early Wednesday flash crash pierced $77,500 then recovered, OKX contracts liquidated $766M in 24h, a consolidation after long and short liquidation.
1. ETFs are real money. Net inflow of $338M on 8/24, sixth consecutive day, August total $2.2B, the strongest since 2026, BlackRock IBIT continues to lead. Institutional pipeline is ongoing.
2. On-chain is turning bullish too. CryptoQuant bull market score jumped from 30 to 80, highest since last October, 8 of 10 indicators bullish, spot demand fastest growth since late December, more like a bullish continuation than a top. But RSI above 80 is overbought, after $7B forced short liquidations subside, a pullback is normal.
3. Three catalysts lined up. Early this morning NVDA earnings (options implied ±5.4%), Friday PCE, 8/28-29 Jackson Hole Fed debut. Holding $77-78K cost base is healthy digestion, $80-81K is a dense profit-taking zone. No chasing short-term, wait for NVDA results.If a person knows about a military operation in advance, the most dangerous action might not be sending a message, but secretly placing a "sure-win" bet. Even more absurd is that they think they are making money anonymously, but they might inadvertently light up an intelligence beacon for the whole world. Reuters recently revealed that an anti-corruption research institute scanned public trades on prediction markets and identified 152 wallets that were unusually successful in military and defense-related events. These wallets collectively earned about $8 million, with an average win rate of 97.2%. The researchers gave them a vivid nickname—"Orcas": they suddenly appear, take a bite out of an unlikely outcome, and disappear after profiting. The numbers are indeed striking, but don't rush to label all 152 wallets as spies. The study itself admits that luck, copying others' bets, and automatic follow-trading can produce similar patterns. Wallets are anonymous, and abnormal statistics are not court evidence. What can be confirmed now is that this behavior pattern exists; what cannot be confirmed is who is behind each wallet and where the information comes from. I think the truly interesting part is not "someone might be profiting from insider information," which is not new in traditional markets. The new thing is that blockchain turns suspicious bets into real-time traces visible to everyone. Prediction markets originally sold "the wisdom of the crowd," but once the topic involves military operations, its odds can also become a public intelligence dashboard: an insider moves first, bots and imitators follow, and odds changes attract more attention. Before the secret is reported by the media, the market is already flashing signals for it On the eve of Nvidia's earnings report, it was suddenly stabbed in the back by OpenAI. This stab is called Jalapeno, the first-generation self-developed inference chip jointly developed by OpenAI and Broadcom. Jalapeno outperforms Nvidia's GB300 and all versions of AMD and Google chips in terms of power efficiency and response latency across multiple AI inference scenarios. Some analysts say that certain functions even surpass the not-yet-mass-produced Rubin. Does this sound like absolutely bad news, that Nvidia's moat is in trouble? You need to pay attention to the keyword "inference scenarios"—this is obviously not meant to replace Nvidia's training chips. It is designed for data centers and massive inference scenarios in the Agent era. Nvidia remains the god of training because cutting-edge large model training explores the unknown, heavily relying on hardware, general programming capabilities, and ultra-high fault tolerance. The cost of a single cutting-edge large model training run can easily reach hundreds of millions of dollars, requiring tens of thousands of chips communicating at ultra-high speeds via NV Link and quantum networks. Any hardware error or architectural rigidity could cause hundreds of millions of dollars of training results to be wasted. No major player dares to risk using their own self-developed chips for this. As long as humanity continues to pursue stronger models, Nvidia's monopoly on super training clusters cannot be broken. But as AI enters the Agent era, the importance of inference rapidly rises. When you give AI a complex task, it needs to perform multi-round chain-of-thought inference, self-reflection and error correction, and continuous interaction with external tools and environments in the background. At this time, enterprises want to The muted group and live room have consistently guided everyone to precisely catch the bottom of the 2420 long position.
No hindsight, the strategy, timing, and entry points are all recorded.
You have to dare to take action at the position; if the market moves poorly, decisively take profit and exit.
Long-term data leans slightly bearish; the non-farm and CPI data at the beginning of the month were both revised down.
These are relatively good bullish signals, which is why gold's gains have shown such large fluctuations.
Today's released PCE data did not decline, which meets expectations.
This indicates that inflationary pressure still exists. Although the rate hike expectations for September have slowed,
the expectations for October and November remain. Next, pay attention to Friday's non-farm payrolls.
Also, tonight's early morning Nvidia earnings report will become a major source of volatility for the US stock market and crypto space.
The market has already priced in that Nvidia will deliver a decent earnings report.
Therefore, ordinary beats may not necessarily be bullish; only a significant beat might drive the Nasdaq and crypto markets to continue rising.
If it's just a slight beat with average guidance, it's easy to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction with a spike and then a pullback.
Current earnings expectations no longer reveal much, referencing SanDisk's previous earnings report.
Focus on its data business, as data centers account for the vast majority of new revenue.
If total revenue beats expectations but data centers fall short, it might be viewed as a low-quality beat #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #OpenAI self-developed chip debuts, inference cost becomes key
AI computing power may be heading towards extreme concentration, with infrastructure investment reaching $11 trillion
SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel's latest assessment: by 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic may capture 70%–80% of the world's new AI computing power, with a combined scale exceeding 100GW; currently, the two already account for about 30% of global new computing power. Even more astonishing, the monetization ability per unit of computing power at leading AI labs is rapidly increasing, with Anthropic currently generating about $50 million in revenue per MW.
This means: selling shovels is more certain than mining gold. First look at $NVDA — GPUs remain the core computing power supply; next $MU, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX and other HBM memory, as well as TSMC, Broadcom, Marvell and other advanced manufacturing and interconnect chains; data center power, optical modules, and liquid cooling also benefit. SemiAnalysis estimates that AI infrastructure investment from 2024 to 2029 could reach $11 trillion, with over $5 trillion requiring debt financing.
In terms of strategy, I prefer to layout the industrial chain on pullbacks, not chase AI lab valuations: watch NVDA for demand and orders, MU for HBM price cycles, optical modules/power chain for capital expenditure realization. This AI arms race now depends on "who has money, power, and chips." Pullback Test Incoming: BTC vs ETH, Which Has the Stronger Downside Defense?
Recently, after BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, it quickly pulled back, dipping as low as around $78,200; ETH simultaneously fell from a high of $2,530 to about $2,430, with intraday volatility noticeably increasing. As the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting approaches, market sentiment has shifted from a short squeeze frenzy to cautious observation, with growing concerns about a pullback. Whether this rebound driven by liquidity restoration is nearing its end remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the downside defenses of these two leaders are fundamentally different. BTC relies on a cost floor built by institutional funds, while ETH depends on a supply floor created by staking lock-ups. The difference in the strength of these defenses directly determines the depth of the pullback and the safety margin of holdings.
BTC’s downside defense is a cost floor backed by real capital, solid and quantifiable, firmly limiting the pullback range. Since August, the cumulative net inflow into U.S. spot BTC ETFs has exceeded $2.07 billion, setting a new monthly high for 2026 so far, with a single-week peak inflow of $1.92 billion, a near 10-month record. Unlike retail short-term funds chasing highs and selling lows, this top-tier institutional capital, led by BlackRock, targets medium- to long-term asset allocation, largely settling as base holdings with minimal quick turnover. This has directly formed a core cost support band between $76,000 and $78,000—each time the price dips into this range, institutional buy orders intervene to support the price, creating a strong support level that is difficult to break in the short term.
On-chain data further solidifies this defense. Over the past two weeks, the entire network’s exchanges have seen a cumulative net outflow of over 13,000 BTC, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, causing the proportion of active circulating supply to steadily decline. The share of coins held by long-term holders has reached a new high since December 2023. The ongoing supply contraction means selling pressure will not increase with price pullbacks but will instead rapidly diminish as prices fall. Even though the historical trapped positions at the $80,000 level are still releasing selling pressure, this pressure is explicit and gradually absorbed, with no hidden risk of leveraged liquidations. Overall estimates place BTC’s normal pullback range within 5%, with an extreme pullback level around $74,000 to $75,000, providing ample safety margin.
ETH’s downside defense is a structural floor supported by supply contraction; the base is solid but the upper layer is loose, making its pullback elasticity much greater than BTC’s. Its fundamental support is undeniably strong: as of late August, Ethereum’s total staked amount reached 41.89 million ETH, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new all-time high, with over one-third of circulating supply locked in staking contracts, hardly participating in secondary market trading. This fundamentally seals off deep crash potential, making a deep pullback below $2,300 highly unlikely.
However, the upper trading layer support is very weak. On the capital side, since August, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs have been only about one-third of BTC’s, with over 70% of the increase coming from a single BlackRock product, lacking systemic industry-wide accumulation support. The thickness and breadth of institutional base holdings are far inferior to BTC’s. Short-term price support mainly comes from sentiment funds driven by AI+Crypto narratives and leveraged funds in the derivatives market. During this rebound, ETH perpetual contract open interest has fluctuated wildly, with funding rates spiking to 0.08%, causing short-term leveraged positions to cluster, which amplifies both upward momentum and pullback risk. Once market sentiment shifts, profit-taking can easily trigger a phase of liquidation, likely causing pullbacks larger than BTC’s.
The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will be a critical test for these two defenses. Under the baseline scenario, with the new Fed Chair Wash maintaining a neutral stance, BTC will continue to oscillate between $77,000 and $81,000, gradually digesting trapped positions; ETH will fluctuate widely between $2,400 and $2,550, with sentiment driving the market. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish tone triggers a pullback; BTC, supported by institutional cost lines, will likely find a bottom above $75,000; ETH may test the $2,350-$2,380 support band with significantly greater volatility. In an optimistic scenario, dovish policies push the market upward; BTC is expected to steadily break through the $82,000 resistance, while ETH will impulsively challenge the $2,650 level.
Operationally, different pullback response strategies are needed for each. BTC suits a mid-term layout approach, with pullbacks to the $76,000-$78,000 range suitable for phased accumulation, holding base positions without over-worrying about short-term volatility; ETH fits a swing trading approach, taking phased profits above $2,550, waiting for pullbacks near $2,380 to consider buying the dip, strictly controlling position size and leverage. In a pullback market, the contest is not about who rises faster but who falls less and holds firm. Understanding the strength of the defense is key to preserving profits and seizing opportunities. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Bitcoin's recent price movement has indeed been somewhat perplexing. The price has been climbing steadily, reaching above $81,000, setting a new high compared to a few days ago, almost ignoring technical resistance levels and trapped positions. Logically, at this level, many holders should be waiting to exit to break even, but the market seems oblivious, continuing to rise on its own. So the question arises: if those trapped positions choose to cut losses and exit, where does the buying capital come from? Is it short covering, or is the so-called "big money" paying out of pocket? No need to think twice; the latter is basically impossible. Institutions are not charities; there's no reason for them to actively help others break even at such a high level. Therefore, logically, this strong rally is more like a chain reaction caused by forced short covering rather than genuine new capital pushing the price up. Following this line of thought, the current market situation is somewhat delicate. After continuous rallies, the short-selling force has been almost exhausted, and the fuel is running low. If big money wants to keep pushing up without enough counterparties and momentum support, waiting for a pullback to regroup makes more sense. This is why, at the current level, some are starting to take contrarian short positions, such as attempting to short near $81,000, betting on a technical correction after this sharp rise. Of course, whether the pullback will truly lead to a decline depends on whether Bitcoin can effectively break below key support levels. If the correction is minor and the market stabilizes quickly, then a reassessment of the situation might be necessary.📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Shorts dominated the short-term cycle extremely, with bulls reversing in 24 hours but at a very small scale. The total liquidation was only $6,971, indicating extremely low liquidity and an invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $367.32 $0 $367.32
4 hours $367.32 $0 $367.32
12 hours $715.76 $0 $715.76
24 hours $6,971.47 $6,127.89 $843.59
From 1 to 12 hours, shorts monopolized (bulls at 0), with volume rising from $367 to $715, which is an invalid scale; in 24 hours, bulls reversed with a 7.26 times multiplier, liquidating $6,127.89 against shorts' $843.59, totaling $6,971.47. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 10.3% of the 24-hour total, showing very low concentration, with bulls focusing their efforts in the latter half of the 24 hours. Bulls violently reversed the shorts' extreme monopoly; although the short squeeze momentum was strong, the total volume for the day was less than $7,000, lacking any directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, as this token has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: The Fed's favored inflation indicator remains flat, Bitcoin oscillates after testing the $80,000 level in a "devaluation trade," and the U.S. continues its "economic war" against Iran.
📊 Core PCE Flat Month-over-Month: Inflation Stickiness Unresolved, Watch for Waller's Jackson Hole Speech
On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce released July's Core PCE Price Index year-over-year at 3.3%, unchanged from last month and in line with market expectations; month-over-month rose 0.2%, accelerating from June's 0.1%. The PCE Price Index year-over-year was 3.7%, also unchanged. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted consumer spending in July was flat month-over-month, failing to continue the strong growth momentum seen in May and June.
Inflation stickiness persists while consumer momentum weakens—this data puts the Fed's September rate decision in a dilemma.
The bigger focus is this week: Fed Chair Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium at 10 PM Beijing time on August 28. Wall Street views this as the most critical window for Waller to reshape the Fed's credibility. The market expects Waller to possibly reiterate inflation risks and keep rate hike options open to rebuild trust. Against the backdrop of three dissenting votes at the July FOMC and publicized internal divisions, Waller's speech will be a key indicator for September's rate hike decision.
₿ BTC Oscillates After Breaking $80,000: After the Short Squeeze, the Real Test Begins
Bitcoin surged to $81,237 on Monday, a three-month high, rising over 20% in the past week. However, it failed to hold above that level and retreated to around $79,000 for consolidation.
This rally was driven by three forces: the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchase operations weakening the dollar and reigniting the "devaluation trade"; continuous net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs; and large-scale short liquidations.
Analysts point out that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. A successful break above the $83,000 resistance could open the way to $90,000; failure to hold may lead to a deep correction.
🚢 U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran: Shifting from Military Strikes to "Economic War"
On August 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of economic sanctions on Iran to include five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology. Yellen called this move the "Economic Normandy Landing Day."
Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has seen subtle changes. Iran and Oman issued a joint statement proposing to establish a mutually agreed safe maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the strait remains closed, and the temporary agreement does not mean full resumption of navigation. Iran has previously made clear that if the U.S. continues its economic war, no oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Core PCE holding steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness remains unresolved; Waller's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September's rate hike decision; Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can convert into sustained buying remains uncertain; the U.S. shifts from military strikes to "economic war" against Iran, with progress in Strait of Hormuz navigation talks but no final agreement yet. $CORE contract liquidations for the whole day were under $7,000, indicating extremely low liquidity and invalid market conditions, sharply contrasting with the massive funds flowing into the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. As inflation data, central bank speeches, and geopolitical games converge in the same time window, the market awaits Waller's direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Tonight, U.S. PCE data was released, showing core inflation in line with expectations but overall still elevated. In July, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month. Real consumer spending stagnated in July after two consecutive months of strong growth. Data shows the U.S. economy is cooling, which may further strengthen the Fed's case for keeping rates unchanged. Note that the real highlight is this Friday's Jackson Hole annual meeting. The conference theme is "Financial Innovation: The Impact on Payments and Policy." This is not only the keynote speech of the annual policy seminar but is also seen by Wall Street as the most critical window for Walsh to rebuild the Fed's credibility. Since taking office in May, Wash has deliberately avoided forward-looking guidance and shortened policy statements, which the market interpreted as a lack of determination to fight inflation. Subsequently, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, the highest level since 2007. Goldman Sachs estimates that enhanced communication could reduce interest rate volatility by about 10% over the next year, while Wash is acting in the opposite direction. At the meeting, if Wash's information is too limited, the market will be extremely disappointed. This speech may need to reiterate three key points: inflation risks have not yet been eliminated, policy rates remain the core tool for combating inflation, and if inflation rises too high again, the Fed will tighten further. In summary, the PCE data met expectations and has limited short-term impact on the market. The real test will be Wash's speech on Friday. If Wash sends clearer policy signals, market volatility will increase sharply. If he continues his vague communication style, the market$BTC fell behind first, $QQQ is still holding up, funds are picking assets, whoever shows weakness first will set the direction.
$BTC 78,355 -0.97% $ETH 2,454 -0.78%
$QQQ +0.62% $SPY +0.32% $IBIT +0.18%
$DXY +0.22% $GLD +0.32%
Disturbances in Hormuz and oil prices haven't stopped, inflation expectations are still being pushed up; Fed expectations are suppressing valuations, AI/semiconductors are the sentiment switch for $QQQ. Among the top trading volumes, $ZEC -5.7%, $XRP -4.8% were hit hard, $HYPE +2.8% still managed to resist, money isn't being thrown around casually.
$ETH -0.78% is more resilient against $BTC -0.97%, the elasticity is on $ETH's side, risk appetite hasn't completely died down.
$QQQ +0.62% still has funds flowing in, AI/semiconductors aren't collapsing, $QQQ isn't planning to withdraw for now.
$IBIT +0.18% versus $BTC -0.97%, spot is weak but ETF has buyers, this divergence isn't bad but don't take it as a strong signal.
$DXY +0.22% slightly firmed up, risk assets have to bow down, watch if it continues to rise.
$GLD +0.32% is still rising, safe-haven funds haven't fully withdrawn, the market isn't completely reassured.
Today's information is quite mixed, don't rush your positions, wait for more concrete signals from $QQQ and $DXY before making a move.
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元1. Weak rebound after consecutive days of sharp decline. Micron ($xMU) is at $932.97 today, up 2.48%. But yesterday (8/24) it plunged -5.83%, with the weekly drop around -7%. This is a "wait and see" stance on the eve of NVDA's earnings report. If NVDA misses, the entire HBM/storage chain will suffer; if NVDA beats and provides strong guidance, Micron will directly benefit (DRAM market share 25%). 2. Valuation is relatively conservative. Market cap is $1.05T, TTM P/E is 21x (reasonable), forward P/E is 27x (with a premium). The analyst average target is $1,513 (+62% upside), with all 43 analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy, but targets range widely from $361 to $2,200, showing extreme dispersion. The market will only be willing to pay a premium after NVDA's earnings are confirmed. 3. Solid fundamental data. LTM revenue growth +219% (YoY), CFO/Revenue 58%, FCF/Revenue 57%. Fundamentals are not weak; valuation is constrained. Morningstar: no economic moat rating given; the market treats cyclical stocks as cyclical stocks, not as growth stocks. 4. The gap with SK Hynix is narrowing. DRAM market share: SK 26% / MU 25% / Samsung 21% / CXMT 8%. Micron is catching up, and HBM3E 12-layer has already shipped to NVDA B200, making it the second company after SK.#US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech by Waller set the tone?
💣 The data matched expectations, but Waller's dilemma remains.
July Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, 3.3% year-over-year, perfectly in line with expectations. But consumer spending has come to a halt; it was still strong in June, but in July not a penny more was spent — this trend is more worth pondering than the CPI itself.
The background is tough: 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The national debt has broken 40 trillion, inflation hasn't been controlled for five years, and the market's patience with the Fed is running thin.
Waller's Jackson Hole debut on Friday — the market isn't looking for a "hike or no hike" statement, but a convincing framework. If he continues to be vague, long bonds will keep crashing. TD Securities has said that if no direction is given, the market will vote with its feet.
PCE provides some breathing room, but Friday is the real trump card. For BTC, if Waller gives direction and uncertainty decreases, it’s a breather; if he continues to dodge, long bonds will keep collapsing and BTC will bear the brunt.
Consumer spending has stalled, the probability of a rate hike is 38%-40%. The verdict comes Friday.👇$BTC $LIGHT SanDisk $xSNDK halved from $2,354 -37%: NBM's $94B contracts provide support, but analysts see +44% upside awaiting a pullback
1. Stock price: rollercoaster. Closed yesterday at $1,480.77, slid pre-market this morning to $1,467 (-0.9%). From the June 22 high of $2,354, down 37% in two months; but YTD still +563%, +3027% in one year. This is not a one-way crash, but intense volatility at high levels.
2. Moat: NBM. 8 contracts totaling $94B, weighted 4+ years, base gross margin 80%. CEO Goeckeler's exact words: "Customer demand growth exceeds our supply, allocations will extend beyond 2027."
3. Market divergence. Optimists (JPM $2,250, Bernstein $3,000, Citi $2,100) believe NBM revalues the cyclical stock into a growth stock; cautious side (Wells Fargo $1,550, RBC $1,600) still treat it as a cyclical stock. Analyst average price target $2,126, +43.6% upside.
Overall, tonight's NVDA earnings report is the litmus test for NAND pricing logic: AI demand confirmed, pullback is a buying opportunity; if demand is questioned, 80% gross margin is just a short seller's promise CPI just dropped at 3.7% vs 3.6% expected. Hotter than forecast.
Not a huge miss but enough to remind everyone the Fed's not done. Rate cut dreams getting pushed further out again.
Risk assets usually don't love this kind of print.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
"Who should you bet on now?" — Combining the latest market data and institutional outlooks, the positioning of Bitcoin and Ethereum is clearly distinct: the former is the "ballast stone," the latter the "spring."
📌 Summary in one sentence
· Bitcoin ($BTC): More certain, suitable as a strategic base holding, resilient in trend, with controllable volatility.
· Ethereum ($ETH): More explosive, if market sentiment warms, its growth elasticity usually significantly outperforms the broader market.
📈 Why do institutions favor ETH's explosive potential?
Recent capital flows have revealed clues (ETH ETF net inflow nearly $700 million in a single week), with the underlying logic being:
· Ethereum holds an absolute share in stablecoin circulation, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and the DeFi ecosystem;
· No hidden pressure from continuous miner sell-offs;
· Institutions like Standard Chartered and Fundstrat view 2026 as the "year of ETH's comeback," and once the ETH/BTC exchange rate hits the historical high of 0.06 again, ETH's excess returns relative to BTC will be very significant.
Key price reference: BTC needs to hold above $78,000 short-term and break through the $83,000 resistance; if successful, it could target the $90,000 level.
⚠️ Negative factors that cannot be ignored
· The macro environment is not fully cleared; some strategists warn BTC may retest $60,000–$65,000 in the first half of 2026, with ETH simultaneously dipping to the $1,800–$2,000 range (Citigroup's target price is more conservative).
· The actual activation effect of Ethereum's next upgrade is uncertain; if on-chain activity falls short of expectations, ETH's decline is often more severe than BTC's.
🎯 Your action framework
· Conservative investors choose BTC: tolerate lower psychological volatility, exchanging time for certainty and compound returns.
· Aggressive investors choose ETH: must tolerate 10%–20% short-term drawdowns to seek excess returns from exchange rate recovery.
Ultimately, this is not about "which is better," but "whether you care more about sleeping soundly or looking further ahead."
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Yushi Technology has fallen about 45% from its peak, but the selloff alone doesn't make it a bargain. It debuted at 1,100 yuan after an IPO price of 150.8 yuan, then closed its first day at 845 yuan. By August 25, its market cap had dropped to 243.8 billion yuan, with the stock around 602.8 yuan. Even after the correction, that's still roughly 4x the issue price. The lesson is simple: heavy retail interest and sentiment can push valuations far beyond fundamentals. CORE Panorama Overview｜Institutional Talks + SatPay Warm-up, Objective Review under BTCFi Competition
⚠️ Only public information compiled, not investment advice
Market style shifts toward "yield-bearing assets," BTCFi is under renewed scrutiny. CORE, as a non-custodial BTC staking L1, can be analyzed through several recent threads:
1. Institutional side: North America roadshow ongoing, but no "official announcement"
The team is connecting with family offices, custody/asset management institutions in Los Angeles and other places, mainly promoting lstBTC non-custodial time-locked staking (BTC custody rights not transferred). This indeed aligns with institutional compliance demands, but currently still in due diligence/solution demonstration phase, no announced partnerships, no on-chain institutional staking incremental data, business cycle counted in months, don’t mistake "in talks" for "implemented."
2. SatPay: More warm-up than commercial use
Positioned as BTC staking + debit card spending + yield generation, the waitlist is growing. But as of August 2026, it is in Beta/waitlist internal testing, no global public beta, no compliant payment license, no real merchant transaction flow. If public beta opens in the second half of the year, that will be the real catalyst for retail users.
3. Ecosystem fundamentals: DeFi supports, others weak
Staking: BTC non-custodial staking + CORE dual staking mechanism running, but BTC staking growth is slowing, pure DeFi TVL only in the millions of USD range (including staked BTC market cap is only promoted as "over 1 billion").
Products: Colend (lending), Molten (DEX), lstBTC/LST reuse are core; NFT/RWA/GameFi have no breakout hits.
After Hermes upgrade, infrastructure framework is stable, but lacks developers and breakout applications.
4. Rumor analysis: Did OKX abandon CORE?
No solid evidence. OKX’s own X Layer ≠ clearing out CORE, currently CORE spot, Web3 wallet chain support, and validator nodes remain. Real warning signals are only three: ① removal of on-chain staking entry ② liquidity cliff in trading pairs ③ official cessation of all ecosystem interactions. None triggered yet, it’s "normal support level," not "abandonment."
5. Market and rhythm
Long-range oscillation, chips washing speculative positions, price movement tied to BTC market. Fed hawkish bias + high interest rates suppress altcoin inflows. Institutions shifting from pure BTC store-of-value to yield-bearing assets (like ETH staking ETFs) is the background, CORE narrative fits, but expectations → price rise need solid proof (institutional staking volume/SatPay public beta/buyback revenue) to ignite, otherwise continue grinding.
Tracking 5 hard indicators:
① Whether North America officially announces custody/asset management cooperation
② New institutional staking BTC volume on lstBTC
③ SatPay public beta timing and user count
④ OKX staking entry and liquidity anomalies
⑤ BTC market direction
Summary: Non-custodial BTC staking has differentiators, institutional path is clear; but slow implementation, SatPay not commercial, TVL small, token unlock pressure high. Short-term don’t heavily bet on news, wait for volume breakout; long-term spare funds in batches, prepare for oscillation and bottoming.
Which do you favor for CORE to realize first: lstBTC institutional funds or SatPay C-end breakout? 👇 The Robinhood concept ecosystem token PONS briefly surpassed the $80 million market cap mark, setting a new all-time high. The core driver behind its price surge, besides the Robinhood concept's inherent retail traffic bonus, lies in its extreme tokenomics design: 28.52% of the total supply has been burned, and the protocol treasury continuously uses 80% of the fee revenue for buybacks and accumulation.
This aggressive strategy of allocating the vast majority of protocol income to secondary buybacks has demonstrated an astonishing capital-attracting effect in the current market of stock competition.
Traditional tokens are often rejected by the secondary market due to massive unlocks and inefficient utility, but PONS has built a classic deflationary flywheel in a short cycle by burning nearly 30% of the circulating supply at once and backing it with 80% of fee revenue in real buybacks. The larger the trading volume, the higher the treasury income, the stronger the buy-side support, which in turn stimulates the token price to continuously break new highs.
However, investors must soberly recognize the reflexivity risk behind the buyback flywheel. The lifeline of high buybacks is entirely tied to sustained protocol activity and high-frequency trading. Once market enthusiasm fades and fee-generating capacity declines, buyback demand will quickly shrink. Without deep intrinsic value support, the positive feedback during the uptrend can easily reverse into a severe liquidity pullback.
While enjoying momentum dividends, closely monitoring the retention curve of actual protocol fees is the rational stance to see through the bubble.
Do you think the deflationary model with 80% income buybacks is a long-term sustainable revenue-generating token, or a short-term fund scheme highly dependent on sentiment heat?August 26 $ZEC Trend Analysis: "Good News Priced In" on ETF Listing Day, Direction Decision After Losing the $800 Level
On August 26, Zcash (ZEC) experienced a classic "good news priced in followed by a pullback" scenario. At the time of writing, ZEC is trading around $784-787, down approximately 7.6%-7.8% in 24 hours. In the previous week, ZEC surged from below $600 to an eight-year high of $880, with a weekly gain of up to 56%. The Grayscale Zcash Spot ETF (ZCSH) officially launched yesterday on the NYSE Arca, recording a first-day trading volume of $14.8 million, rising over 3.5% intraday before closing down 1.54%. The trust holds about 393,000 ZEC, valued at over $260 million.
ETF Listing = "Good News Fully Priced In"
In the days leading up to the ETF listing, ZEC soared from below $600 to above $880. The market compared it to Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap and PoW mechanism, fueling the "next Bitcoin" narrative. During this period, ZEC perpetual contract open interest nearly doubled to $1.8 billion, with leveraged funds accelerating both the rise and the subsequent decline. Steve Vanourny, head of Grayscale’s index business, stated that Zcash has nearly a decade of network history, a fixed supply cap of 21 million, and a PoW mechanism, plus optional privacy features that Bitcoin lacks. The company positions ZCSH as a high-risk satellite allocation within a digital asset portfolio.
Technical Analysis: Overbought Correction Continues
Although the price remains above the EMA50 at $713.2 and EMA200 at $576.54, the MACD has formed a death cross, and the RSI has fallen to a neutral 64.15. The lower Bollinger Band support at $781.28 has been tested; if broken decisively, the next key support is at $713 (50-day EMA). Resistance lies in the $870-$903 range, and reclaiming $800 is the first prerequisite for a short-term rebound.
Whale Activity: Short Position on ZEC with Unrealized Losses Over $10 Million
According to TradingBeats monitoring, a "BTC OG insider whale" is shorting 32,800 ZEC at 2x full position leverage, with a position value of about $25.699 million and an average entry price of only $444. The current unrealized loss is $11.154 million, a return of about -153.4%. Meanwhile, the same whale is long 1,868.3 BTC at 3x leverage, with an average entry price of $77,089.9, showing an unrealized profit of about $3.681 million. The ZEC unrealized loss has expanded to roughly three times the BTC unrealized gain, with the combined positions still at a net loss of $7.473 million. Additionally, another whale is shorting 44,386 ZEC at 5x leverage, with an unrealized loss of $6.75 million and a liquidation price of $812.3—meaning if ZEC rebounds above $812, shorts will face further liquidation pressure.
Summary
Today’s ZEC pullback is a typical "good news fully priced in" combined with an overbought correction—the explosive rally in the week before the ETF listing was fully priced in. The doubling of open interest to $1.8 billion indicates heavy leverage accumulation, and once the good news materialized, profit-taking and leveraged liquidations created a negative feedback loop. In the broader market, Bitcoin fell 2% to $78,900, and most major altcoins closed lower on the day.
The fate of the $800 level will determine the short-term direction—if reclaimed with continued ETF inflows, the pullback may be a healthy correction within a bull market; if the $781 Bollinger lower band is lost, $713 will be the next critical test. Investors are advised to strictly control position sizes and avoid chasing rallies or panicking with high leverage.$ZEC's recent pullback is quite harsh, but my strategy is still running.
ZEC dropped from around 880 all the way down to 751, a retracement of nearly 15%.
Why such a sharp drop?
This rally was originally driven by the news of the Zcash spot ETF listing, surging over 60% in a week, but the main push came from leveraged futures, with 24-hour futures volume hitting 9.5 billion, while spot volume was only 1 billion. After the ETF listing, the positive news was realized, and profit-taking began. Moreover, open interest in futures doubled to 1.8 billion, and when leverage is being shaken out, the drop can be fierce.
The technicals aren't great either. MACD has already shown a high-level divergence; prices hit new highs but momentum is lagging.
What’s next?
If it can hold support around 750, it might stabilize. If not, the next key level is around 716-720.
My long strategy isn't over yet, but I've used up all my add-on positions, so now I can only wait. Accept losses when they happen, and count profits as experience.
#玩转策略
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 The full set of US PCE data for the evening has been released, overall exceeding expectations and showing strength!
Core PCE inflation remains flat without declining, and both personal consumption and durable goods orders are higher than expected.
In short, the US economy still shows resilience, inflation has not cooled further, and the market's hope for a quick rate cut has been directly dampened.
This is negative news for gold; it is difficult for it to rally sharply in the short term and will likely face pressure and fluctuate. Avoid blindly chasing longs.
For $BTC and $ETH, there is no major positive news; rate cut expectations are delayed, making it hard for the market to explode directly, and it remains a volatile consolidation pattern with back-and-forth fluctuations.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #It will become clear after tomorrow's meeting. It did not exceed expectations. The US CPI data brought good news in July: core CPI dropped to a relatively moderate 2.5%. However, the PCE inflation rate weights different spending categories differently, so its performance has consistently been noticeably stronger. Currently, there is still much uncertainty about how Waller views the inflation challenge he has taken on. He has not included his economic forecasts in the quarterly released "dot plot," which summarizes Federal Reserve officials' projections for the economy and interest rates; at the same time, he has not indicated whether he might support rate hikes in the upcoming meetings, a question that has already caused divisions among Fed officials. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The moment I started taking $BCH seriously was seeing how directly its infrastructure prioritizes peer-to-peer payments. Larger block capacity supports more transaction throughput, while the network keeps permissionless access, transparent verification, and relatively simple settlement. Most protocols usually deliver only one or two of these
#IranSanctionsAndTalks #IranSanctionsAndTalks #BTC80KHoldOrFold #US Core PCE flat from last month, how will Powell's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
July Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, exactly the same as June, but month-over-month rose from 0.1% to 0.2%. The overall PCE looks worse, year-over-year at 3.7% exceeds expectations, month-over-month is 0.2%, last month was -0.1%.
Inflation stuck above 3% and not coming down, this is the reality Powell faces.
The day after tomorrow, Friday at 10 PM, Powell will deliver his keynote speech at Jackson Hole for the first time. The market is guessing how he will set the tone. This PCE data essentially sets the tone for him in advance—there's no room to be dovish, inflation is still sticky. The probability of a rate cut in September is likely to be pushed down.
For BTC and ETH, short-term pressure is significant. The dollar is strengthening, US Treasury yields are rising, risk assets get hit first. BTC was already in a consolidation phase; the data plus the annual meeting double whammy means short-term further testing is expected. ETH is weaker; if BTC can't hold, ETH will only suffer more.
But don't be overly pessimistic. Core year-over-year unchanged is not a bombshell, real consumer spending month-over-month is flat, people's purchasing power is declining, the economy isn't that strong. Rate cuts are only delayed, not canceled.
Don't chase longs these days; wait for Powell's speech to settle. Hold BTC if support holds; if broken, wait for lower levels. Don't stubbornly hold ETH in weakness.
What do you think, will Powell be hawkish or dovish?
$BTC, $ETH US July inflation remains sticky; Q2 GDP growth rate holds steady at 1.5%
On August 26, US July inflation unexpectedly remained unchanged, marking the 65th consecutive month significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Due to the impact of the Iran war, the recent decline in inflation after reaching a high level has stalled, which may intensify internal Fed debates over whether to raise interest rates or keep them unchanged. Data released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the Fed's preferred gauge, the US July PCE price index annual rate, at 3.7%, unchanged from June, with analysts expecting 3.6%. As trade talks between the US and its second-largest trading partner Canada broke down on Friday, a new round of tariff-driven inflationary pressure may be imminent. On a month-over-month basis, the PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, also exceeding economists' expectations. In June, the index had declined 0.1% month-over-month, the lowest level since April 2020. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also updated Q2 economic growth data, keeping the US Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate steady at 1.5%. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech by Waller set the tone?
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Core PCE year-on-year at 3.29%, month-on-month at 0.25%, basically flat from last month, neither opening the door for rate cuts nor forcing rate hikes—typical "dull knife" data. The crypto market breathes a short-term sigh of relief but remains uncertain mid-term.
Waller's Jackson Hole debut on the 28th, my judgment on the tone is one sentence: inflation is not dead, rate hike options remain, no forward guidance. He won't say whether there will be a rate hike in September but will lay out the reaction function of "tightening if it goes higher," casually mentioning stablecoins and payment innovation (this year's theme), which is a neutral to slightly bearish signal for BTC, not bullish.
Mid-term view: sticky PCE + Waller's hawkish options = high real interest rates holding back liquidity, making it difficult for $BTC to start a major rally, most likely range-bound with a bias toward the lower end seeking support. ETF inflows will be suppressed by rate hike expectations.
In terms of trading, don't take "PCE flat" as a reversal signal. Wait for Waller's speech and see how the 2-year Treasury and the dollar index move. If bond yields don't fall, don't chase crypto.
$ETH
$SOL $SNDK SanDisk (SNDK) stock price continues its recent weakness, with a slight decline in pre-market trading. After a significant drop from its historical high, the market is currently digesting multiple pressures from industry competition and macroeconomic factors.
Current Market Snapshot
· Recent Trend: Closed at $1,480.77 yesterday (25th), down 0.83%, and further dropped to around $1,453 in pre-market trading. The stock price has fallen about 37%-38% from the historical high of $2,354.
· Sector Correlation: Storage chip stocks are generally under pressure in pre-market trading, with SK Hynix, Micron, Western Digital, and others all slightly down, reflecting an industry-wide correction.
Triple Pressure Behind the Decline
This round of decline is not due to a collapse in the company's fundamentals but a short-term convergence of multiple negative factors:
· Changing Competitive Landscape: Market rumors suggest Washington may allow Apple to source storage chips from Chinese suppliers (Changxin Memory, Yangtze Memory Technologies), directly threatening SanDisk's pricing power, which was the main reason for the stock's intraday drop of over 9% yesterday.
· Cooling AI Boom: After a surge of over 700% this year, the AI infrastructure sector is facing profit-taking and valuation reassessment pressures, causing capital divergence at high levels.
· Long-term Competition Concerns: Samsung's capital return plan has raised market worries, while there are concerns that Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) might dominate the NAND market by 2027, potentially causing supply shocks with its IPO.SNDK at $1450, have you been shaken out?
First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a pullback, retail investors panic and shout "double top."
On August 5, the earnings report exceeded expectations across the board, the stock violently rebounded to 1828, then continuously fell back to 1416, a retracement of over 22%. The candlestick tells you: 1416 is the low on August 24, 1400-1450 is the decision box, the 20-day moving average at 1380-1410 just hits the lower edge, the direction is about to be chosen, don’t pick the wrong side.
First thing: the earnings report was explosive, but the stock didn’t rise—because it was "good but not crazy enough."
Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, gross margin 84.6%, EPS $39.25, all exceeding expectations. But Q1 guidance of $10.3-10.8 billion, the most optimistic in the market expected above $10.8 billion, just a little short, so valuation was directly cut after hours.
Sound familiar? The same script was played by NVIDIA, AMD, and now it’s SNDK’s turn.
Second thing: the business model has changed, but you’re still looking at it with old eyes.
The old Sandisk was a cyclical NAND flash stock—profiting when prices rose, losing when prices fell. What is Sandisk now?
An AI inference storage supplier. Years of floor price long-term contracts + prepayments + 93.9 billion guaranteed minimum revenue, gross margin locked above 80% targeting FY28-FY30, excess cash fully returned to shareholders.
Used to live off spot prices, now locked-in profits from long-term contracts.
Used to be a cyclical stock, now a growth stock.
Used to have a PE of 10x, now 30x is considered cheap.
The market is still pricing it by "memory cycles," but its business model has become an "AI infrastructure landlord."
Third thing: the technical side has reached a critical point that must be taken seriously.
1416 is the low on August 24, 1400 is a psychological level + 20-day moving average support. If it holds, a double bottom structure is established, rebound targets 1500-1570-1600. If it breaks, next stops are 1330-1350, even 1200.
From the June ATH of 2354 to late July 1200, a 50% drop; then a rebound to 1828 (covering 61.8%), then a fall back to 1400+. This is a textbook "bear market rally followed by a second bottom" structure.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Q4 revenue surged 372%, gross margin 84.6%, historic-level data
93.9 billion guaranteed minimum revenue contracts, most locked for FY27/FY28
60 billion+ buybacks, remaining 155 billion authorized, no debt + net cash
Analyst target prices 2000-2250, 40-55% upside from current
1400-1416 is 20-day moving average + psychological level, strong technical support
On the other side:
Guidance slightly below the most optimistic expectations, two consecutive quarters of "good but not good enough"
Already below 50-day moving average, short-term bearish structure
NVDA earnings + PCE + Jackson Hole triple bombshells concentrated from today to Friday
If 1400 doesn’t hold, next stops 1330, then 1200
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Light long positions at 1416-1450, stop loss below 1380, target 1500-1570. If rebound to 1500-1550 fails to break through, short for a target of 1420-1400.
Swing traders:
Wait for direction confirmation. Go long above 1500, target 1570-1600, breakout looks to 1680+. Short below 1400, target 1330-1350.
Long-term believers:
Build positions gradually below 1400, logic is AI storage long contracts + business model upgrade. Targets: above 1600 aiming for 1800+, by 2027 aiming for 2000-2250. But note—August 26-29 (NVDA earnings + PCE + Jackson Hole) will see extreme volatility, recommend reducing positions and observing, add back after the storm passes.
Mid-term stands on the AI storage long contract side, but 1450 looks more like a "rebound continuation or second bottom" dividing line, not a "cheap enough to go all in" level.
The August 5 earnings made the market believe SNDK is not a cyclical stock, but the August 17-24 pullback made the market doubt again. If 1416 holds, it’s a golden pit; if not, it’s the start of a deeper correction.
SNDK now is like NVIDIA in May 2023—
Earnings exploded but guidance "slightly below the most optimistic expectations," killed after hours, then...
Do you remember what happened next?
You fear the pullback, institutions fear missing out.
What is your SNDK cost basis?
Do you think 1416 will hold?
$BTC $SNDK $NVDA Is the pullback after BTC's surge a risk release or the end of the trend?
The crypto market pulled back 0.79% in the past 24 hours, with total market capitalization retreating to $2.64 trillion.
However, I believe this decline is more like a normal cooldown after a rise, rather than a signal of trend reversal.
The reason is simple: this rally was too fast.
In the past week, the total crypto market cap rose 19.71%, BTC increased 21.9%, and ETH rose 28.32%. Such a sharp surge in a short time pushed the market into an extreme greed state, with the Fear & Greed Index reaching 80 and RSI peaking at 87.68.
Under these circumstances, it is normal for some short-term funds to take profits.
What’s more noteworthy is that leverage is decreasing.
In the past 24 hours, open interest in contracts dropped 5.67%, indicating the market is actively reducing risk rather than experiencing panic selling.
At the same time, the US spot BTC ETF still maintains net inflows, with $314 million flowing in on August 25 alone, showing that institutional demand has not disappeared but is digesting previous gains.
So the real question now is not:
"Has the market peaked?"
But rather:
"Can the post-rally chip exchange be completed?"
Next, focus on support around the $2.54 trillion market cap.
If this level holds, it indicates the market is just undergoing healthy consolidation and the bullish structure remains intact; if it breaks, it may further test the $2.47 trillion area.
Currently, I lean more toward the former.
$BTC The "Arithmetic Truth" Behind a $44.7 Million Loss: Avalanche Treasury AVAT Buys Back $10 Million — Is It a Rescue or a Secret Bottom Fishing? Just under three months after ringing the bell on Nasdaq, AVAT (Avalanche Treasury Company), the official "treasury leader" of the Avalanche ecosystem, has delivered a rather shocking Q2 financial report: a net loss of $44.7 million, with a loss of $1.54 per share. However, at the same time the news was released, the board directly approved a $10 million stock buyback plan. On one hand, there is a massive paper loss of tens of millions of dollars; on the other, a real cash buyback of its own shares. Breaking down this ledger reveals that this so-called "negative earnings" is essentially an inevitable pain under US GAAP financial standards for crypto treasury models. Underlying Breakdown of the Paper Loss: What Exactly Was Lost? Carefully dissecting the $44.7 million net loss structure reveals a large amount of non-recurring and non-cash accounting impairments: $35.7 million unrealized loss and impairment (80%): from the fair value fluctuations of the company's core asset — 15.3 million AVAX tokens. As long as the coin price retraces during the reporting period, accounting standards require it to be recorded as an impairment. This is purely a paper unrealized loss; not a single token was sold. $15.2 million one-time listing expenses: paid to complete the business merger and Nasdaq listing on June 11,