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Above the 80,000 Threshold: Policy Catalysts and Short Squeeze Intertwine, Requiring Calm Assessment Amid the Frenzy
BTC has returned above $80,000 for the first time in a hundred days, with a weekly gain of up to 25%, driving ETH and altcoin sectors to strengthen broadly. Market discussions about a “crypto summer” are rapidly fermenting. However, beneath the lively market surface, there are clear divergences in the underlying logic of the trend, and it cannot be simply equated with the start of a new bull market.
This round of market surge stems from multiple favorable developments in the U.S. The White House held a special crypto meeting signaling policy friendliness, the SEC introduced new regulations on crypto asset financing, and the Treasury expanded U.S. debt repurchase operations, suppressing long-term Treasury yields. The marginal improvement in macro liquidity conditions and multiple narratives together ignited market bullish expectations.
However, it is important to see the true nature of the rally: a significant portion of this surge comes from short covering. Over $3.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with more than 90% being shorts, representing a typical short squeeze liquidation rather than relying entirely on new external capital inflows.
Capital and sentiment data show a dual nature. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, signaling a clear return of institutional funds; however, the Fear & Greed Index rapidly climbed to 74, approaching the extreme greed zone. Sentiment switched quickly from fear to frenzy, a phase historically accompanied by intense volatility.
The litmus test for the next phase of the market will be the sustainability after digesting the positive news. Key focus will be on whether ETF funds can maintain continuous inflows and how the market holds up after the short covering wave subsides.$2450 ETH, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, retail investors shouting "back to the peak."
Up 30% in a week, surging from 1900 straight to 2530, the strongest weekly gain since May 2025. But the candlestick tells you: the daily RSI has reached 75 in the overbought zone, funding rate turned positive to an annualized 11%, and the long-short ratio is heavily skewed—this is not the start of a main upward wave, but a high-level digestion phase.
First thing: weak dollar + short squeeze, not a sudden fundamental bull shift.
On August 19, US Treasury repo expectations weakened the dollar, shorts got swept away. Weekly short liquidations jumped, single-day short liquidations exceeded 100 million—the price was "squeezed up" by derivatives, on-chain fees followed later.
Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled for Q4 2026, Fusaka scaling story has long been realized. The protocol has no "immediate bullish bomb," the price rise reason is already priced in.
Second thing: institutions are buying, but you have to see how they buy.
BlackRock bought nearly $700 million ETH in one week, BitMine bought another 32,400 coins last week (about $81 million), holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, most already staked.
Institutions are "allocating," retail investors are "gambling."
Third thing: technically, it has reached a "long-short equilibrium point."
Above 2500-2550 is a dense area of weekly moving averages + this round's high, below 2415-2380 is the first support.
Daily RSI at 75 overbought, funding rate annualized 11%—longs are paying shorts. This is not the early stage of a trend, but a late-stage characteristic.
Only above 2550 can we talk about 2700-3000; breaking below 2380 means looking at 2300 or even 2220.
Long-short showdown, you decide.
On one side:
ETF net inflow nearly $700 million in one week, BlackRock main buyer
BitMine holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, real money accumulation
Staking rate 32%, circulating supply continuously locked
Weak dollar + rate cut expectations still fermenting mid-term
On the other side:
30% weekly rise, RSI 75 overbought, funding rate turned positive
Failed three times to break 2500-2550
New catalysts not until Q4, news vacuum period
Macro uncertainty before September FOMC
Resistance above: 2470-2485 → 2500-2550 (strong resistance) → 2700 → 2820 → 3000
Support below: 2415-2380 → 2300-2220 → 2000-2085 (major defense level)
Trading strategy (no nonsense)
Plan A: Buy the dip
Wait for 2380-2410 to show lower wick and volume bottoming before entering, stop loss if daily close breaks 2300, target 2470-2500 → 2530-2550. Reduce position at 2530, don’t be greedy.
Plan B: Breakout chase
Close above 2550 on 4H or higher timeframe, pullback not breaking 2500 before chasing, target 2700 → 2820 → 3000.
Plan C: Short at high levels
Small short positions on rejection between 2470-2530, stop loss above 2560, target 2450 → 2415 → 2380.
Position risk control:
Single trade risk no more than 1%-2% of total capital
Chasing longs at current price no more than 30% of normal position
Funding rate annualized 11%, overnight longs have cost
Deleverage before FOMC on September 15-16
What is ETH like now?
Like BTC in September 2021—
After a 30% weekly rise, everyone shouted "100k," but it consolidated sideways for two months before truly breaking out.
2450 is not a place to go all-in, it’s a test.
The test is whether you can control your impulse.
Wait for the dip, wait for the breakout, wait for certainty—this is ten thousand times more important than gambling on direction at this level.
Are you long or short at 2450?
How are you planning to trade this ETH wave?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC at $79,000, are you chasing it? First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, shorts bleeding heavily. In the past 10 days, BTC surged from 64k to 81k, a 23% weekly increase, with record short liquidations. ETFs saw cumulative inflows of $2.7-3 billion in August, the Treasury is buying back long bonds to suppress the dollar, and Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act. The weekly chart just broke above the 50-week moving average, RSI is 80-88 overbought, the direction is right, but the price is frighteningly high. First thing: ETFs are buying, but buying momentum is slowing. Net inflow on August 24 was $338 million, then sharply dropped to $7.5 million on August 25. After 6-7 days of aggressive accumulation, it turned into "slowing down and watching." The same script: in March 2024, after continuous ETF inflows slowed down, BTC fell from 73k to 56k. In January 2025, the same rhythm, from 108k down to 89k. Second thing: the macro window is here, today through Friday is a "pressure chamber." Today (August 26) at 8:30 AM ET: July PCE + Q2 GDP revision. PCE expected core YoY 3.3% (steady), GDP second revision expected 1.5%. If data is soft: dollar falls, BTC pushes to 81,200 again. If data meets expectations: high-level consolidation, wait for Friday. If data is hot: the core logic of this rally—"fiscal easing + devaluation trade"—will be challenged, first hit targeting 76,500-77,000. Third thing: two conflicting signals appeared technically. Signal A: the trend is indeedHello everyone, I only share my own trading insights, records, and experiences, which do not constitute investment advice. Here is my judgment on the trends of crypto ETH, BTC, and US stocks over the next two months. The sell-off in June was a misjudgment of crypto as an interest-free asset, caused by the early pricing of hawkish signals released by Federal Reserve officials and Brainard. Currently, CPI is cooling down again, the war is easing, oil prices are cooling, and future CPI expectations are also cooling. The US Q2 GDP growth rate is 1.5; I now revise it down to 1.2 or 1.3. Economic growth is slowing, the Fed is not optimistic about upcoming employment data, and inflation risks are temporarily controllable. The Fed is shifting focus from inflation to employment data. The likely scenario is: companies hire less—recruitment decreases—labor loses motivation. I expect Brainard to release dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday or at the next FOMC meeting, which will create a loose monetary environment for crypto and the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq will continue to rise but with limited gains, currently at a high average P/E ratio of 41. For the Fed, once employment data cools and deteriorates rapidly, it is often hard to reverse, especially with GDP growth slowing again. My judgment for the September meeting is that Brainard will release dovish signals this week or at the September meeting. Either there will be a rate cut in September or December. A rate hike in September is only possible as a tit-for-tat move before the midterm elections, not impossible but unlikely. It will be either September or December. Due to limited space, I have condensed most of the content. If anyone knows how OKX posts long articles, please let me know.#IranSanctionsAndTalks a race between sanctions and diplomacy. If US pressure hits oil exports and payments first, crude could rebound, inflation could rise and dollar liquidity could tighten. If Qatar and Oman get talks moving first, oil and gold may lose their risk premium. BTC sits between both outcomes. Less geopolitical fear weakens the haven trade, but better liquidity helps risk assets. The market isn't just pricing peace or conflict. It's pricing which path reaches markets first.Data supports the price. Although #Bitcoin hit resistance and pulled back on Tuesday, the growth momentum of ETFs remains strong. On Tuesday this week, BTC ETF net inflows amounted to $314.3 million, slightly lower than Monday's net inflow data, but still within the regular range of $300-500 million net inflows. This means ETF buying has not shown a significant decline. However, it is worth noting that IBIT ETF net inflows increased again, accounting for 90.5% of the single-day net inflows. While this concentration in a single channel does not necessarily indicate risk, concentrated net inflow channels often imply a contraction in buying sentiment. Compared to Monday, when IBIT's net inflow share was only 61.9%, Tuesday's share increased significantly. Combined with BTC's pullback from the high, this abnormal data warrants caution.
Crypto market data: Comparing yesterday's market data differences
1. From a market share perspective, the #BTC consolidation phase has not triggered market worry or panic; ETH and altcoin shares remain stable.
2. Trading volume has declined. Facing tonight's macro data and uncertainties, the market has not chosen a direction yet and remains relatively cautious.
3. Total capital net inflow is $300 million, but mainstream funds USDT and USDC have not shown obvious net inflows; crypto market capital net inflows have paused.
Today's summary: $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 From the current data, crypto data has shown downside risks, such as declining trading volume and paused net inflows of mainstream funds, which is significant for the short term Gold at $4660, BTC hovering around $79,000 — the market is pricing in “rate hikes don’t work” Gold is at $4660, approaching a three-month high, up over 7% in a week. BTC is hovering near $79,000, after surging to $81,000 yesterday and then dropping back down. Under the same macro environment and the same rate hike expectations, two “non-interest-bearing assets” show vastly different trends. What is gold rising on? What is BTC waiting for? First, about gold. Are rate hike expectations still there? Yes. CME data shows a 67% chance of a rate hike in December, and a 64% chance of no change in September. But the market no longer believes it. It doesn’t believe rate hikes can solve inflation. It doesn’t believe the Fed’s hammer can smash through three walls — tariffs, oil prices, and AI investment. Gold is pricing in three narratives: First, inflation stickiness. PCE is still at 3.7%, with a target of 2%, nearly double the target. Inflation has been above target for over five years. Second, dollar credit erosion. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Richmond Fed President Barkin said: “There will be a reckoning, no one can tell you when.” Third, debt unsustainability. IMF Managing Director Georgieva put it bluntly: “All countries need to solve their fiscal problems.” JPMorgan predicts the average gold price in 2026 to be about $5243, possibly rising to $6000 by the end of the year. Gold is speaking through its price: rate hikes don’t scare me anymore. What about BTC? BTC’s “digital gold” narrative has been disproven too many times during liquidity tightening. 2#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Core changes in the event
This ongoing capital raise does not immediately increase BTC holdings. The company's total USD liquidity has been pushed close to $6.7 billion, split into two pools: one part is specifically used to pay high dividends on preferred shares and repurchase discounted preferred shares, addressing rigid financial pressure; the other part, the USD-Cash pool, retains the option to buy Bitcoin opportunistically in the future, but no longer blindly going all-in on the coin price without raising funds.
The underlying logic has shifted from aggressively hoarding coins regardless of price to dynamic management balancing cash and BTC. Annual preferred share dividends are a huge rigid expense. If the company held only Bitcoin, a sharp price drop would cause a cash flow crisis, so now it prioritizes building a safety cushion.
Two possible future scenarios
Scenario 1: Restart buying after a pullback (optimistic)
If BTC experiences a clear retracement and market sentiment cools, this large idle cash on the books will be released to enter the market. Large spot buy orders will provide solid support to the market, helping stabilize and rebound the price.
Scenario 2: Holding cash for a long time without action (risk signal)
If the coin price continues to surge and Strategy remains inactive, it indicates management believes the current price is not cost-effective, and there is a lack of incremental institutional buying support. The sustainability of the high-level market is questionable and prone to a sharp pullback.这几天 $BTC 突破 $80K 后，市场情绪明显重新热起来，但我反而觉得，接下来最值得观察的不是 BTC 还能涨多少，而是这笔钱会不会继续往链上扩散。 现在的路径其实很清楚： BTC突破 $80K → ETF资金回流 → 机构风险偏好恢复 → BTC先吃掉大部分资金 → ETH、SOL、XRP、HYPE等开始接力 → 最后才轮到更高Beta的山寨。 BTC最近一周涨幅超过20%，同时美国现货BTC ETF上周净流入约19.2亿美元，说明这轮上涨至少不是单纯靠散户和合约杠杆硬拉。 但现在已经出现一个很有意思的变化： BTC涨 → ETH跟 → SOL/HYPE等开始表现 → 市场开始寻找下一批高Beta资产。 例如Solana相关ETF的累计净流入已经达到约12.2亿美元，说明资金正在尝试从BTC向其他大型加密资产扩散。 所以我现在最关注的是“市场宽度”。 如果只有BTC涨，其他币不动，那更像是资金抱团BTC。 但如果： BTC守住 $80K ↓ ETH继续走强 ↓ SOL/HYPE/XRP等继续创新高 ↓ DeFi、RWA、稳定币相关项目开始放量 ↓ 中小市值山寨开始补涨 那才是真KGeN in August focuses not on market trends but on a shift: from verifying traffic to providing traceable human data for robots and large models.
VeriFi Korea is scheduled for next week, with the theme directly being Human x Robots. A recurring judgment that week is: the next bottleneck is not computing power, but truly learnable, verified humans. @kgen_io
Product: three layers stacked together
POGE is the foundation. It’s not a one-time KYC but a continuously updated reputation: whether you are a real person, have ongoing participation, can perform tasks, have genuine consumption, and whether your social relationships hold up.
VeriFi outputs this reputation externally. Games, consumer applications, DeFi, AI labs don’t want just registration numbers, but a group of people who are very likely not farm accounts.
KAI is narrower and more expensive. It filters experts from tens of millions, doing RLHF, multilingual annotation, code evaluation, object detection, and complex reasoning, then delivers them to labs via Humyn Labs. The website’s statement is clearer than the white paper: it’s not more data, but better data.
In short: POGE proves who you are, VeriFi distributes people, and KAI turns some of them into training signals.
Numbers aligned in August
Growth is ongoing. On August 4, the official review of July: network strength 80M, user attributes 3.4 billion entries; protocol users on the official site reached about 80.53 million, higher than the often-cited 61.9 million in March. On the collection side, over the past six months there have been more than 130,000 independent contributors and over 550,000 hours. The Q3 roadmap also targets multilingual audio and video for the Middle East and Latin America, selling to cutting-edge labs and robot teams. @KGeN_CN
In business, the externally verifiable numbers remain those from March 2026: annualized revenue $85.8M, over 200 partners. The full-year target is $100M, with a longer-term goal of $150M by the end of 2027. AI data is described as the fastest-growing segment but early disclosures show it accounts for about 10% of the total. The platform’s profitability does not mean deflation is established.
The most glaring mismatch is here: the network and revenue are already substantial, but the market cap is still small. This doesn’t necessarily mean undervaluation; it could be the market questioning—what is the quality of revenue, how much flows to the token, and when will AI orders move from a supporting role to the main act.
What exactly is it solving
Text data online is running low, synthetic data feeding models makes them more like models, and crowdsourcing increasingly involves “human annotation” that is actually humans using AI to get by. AI lacks not data volume but three things simultaneously: traceable sources, quality that compounds, and distribution close enough to the real world.
KGeN’s approach is to first gather real people in the Global South through tasks and clans, then use biometrics, social binding, and behavioral footprints to squeeze out fakes, finally selling time as voice, first-person video, and expert evaluations. Labor no longer disappears after completion but accumulates into reputation for the next selection.
This is more worth watching than the four words “AI + token”: people in the Global South shift from being data collection targets to production factors on the ledger.
Possible future fields
August’s actions have already fixed the direction: humanoid robots and Physical AI, multilingual voice, enterprise-level evaluation. Gaming and consumer acquisition won’t stop—that’s the current cash cow. Further downstream is expanding storefronts and credentials to model usage rights, moving from selling people to selling results.
Risks are also clear. 80 million network strength does not equal datasets labs are willing to renew. The hours look good, but density, consistency, and actual inclusion in training clusters must be considered. If AI revenue doesn’t pick up, KGeN 2.0 is just a mechanism, not a market cap logic.
Next, focus on three things: whether there are new lab contracts, whether collection shifts from “how many hours recorded” to “used by models,” and whether buyback and burn can be seen monthly on-chain.
If intelligence becomes cheaper, scarcity will no longer be models but trustworthy human signals. August confirms a shift, not a climax. While everyone is waiting for Fed Chair "Powell to give the answer," maybe the answer no longer matters. Friday, Jackson Hole. The whole world is waiting for Fed Chair Powell to speak—hawkish or dovish? Will there be a rate hike? But honestly, this question itself may already be outdated. The market anxiously waits for one person to provide the "answer." But the real answer has long since left his speech. Here are some facts that have already happened. First, the American people can no longer hold on. The August consumer confidence index dropped to 89.4, the lowest in seven months. The consumer expectations index for the next six months collapsed by 5.8 points, down to 68.2—the lowest since January this year. July retail sales saw the largest drop in over a year. In July, employers cut a net 23,000 jobs, and the Labor Department revised May and June employment data down by 103,000. Inflation has been above target for more than five years. Five years. Wages have not kept up with prices, credit cards are maxed out, and savings are depleted. The Fed is struggling with "whether to raise rates"—but the people's wallets have already made the decision for it: I have no money left, so don't raise rates anymore. Second, the market has already "raised rates" for the Fed. On August 18, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.334%, the highest since 2007. What does "the market has done the tightening itself" mean? It means the Fed hasn't acted yet, but the bond market has already pushed borrowing costs up. The Fed's rate has stayed unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%—but the 30-year Treasury yield is already at 5.3%. The Fed hasn't raised rates, but the market is doing it for them."TRUMP-Linked Address Withdraws 3.39 Million USDC Without a Trace: Unilateral Market Making Pump and Order Book Depth"
No single large bearish candle can be found on the K-line, yet the core TRUMP-linked address BDNBtN...9eUo swiftly withdrew 3.39 million USDC in cold hard cash from the Solana chain within just 10 hours.
This address never once clicked market swap; instead, it unilaterally placed tokens in the Meteora DLMM limit order pool. Whenever external buyers pushed prices up, the high-position contracts automatically converted to stablecoins, which were then directly withdrawn and transferred to Coinbase.
Several other linked wallets simultaneously recharged 2.62 million tokens to OKX for dual-track portfolio adjustment. This unilateral market making completely drained USDC from the pool, halving the bid-ask spread thickness, and the real order book liquidity shrank to one-third of what it was before the price rally. $SOL Battle at the 80,000 mark between bulls and bears! What’s next for BTC?
BTC has climbed back above $80,000 for the first time in three months, surging over 23% in a single week, marking the strongest weekly performance in nearly three years. However, after the rally, it quickly retreated to around $79,000. Whether it can hold above the $80,000 level has become the biggest concern for everyone.
Conclusion first: It’s difficult to hold above $80,000 unilaterally in the short term, but it’s highly likely to rise in the medium term.
This round of gains is driven by four combined forces: falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar improving macro liquidity; rising expectations of friendly U.S. crypto regulation; spot ETF net inflows of $1.92 billion in one week, with significant institutional capital returning; concentrated short liquidations and passive buying pushing a short squeeze.
The problem is that the momentum from short liquidations has already weakened, there is heavy profit-taking pressure above $80,000, and the fear and greed index has entered an extreme greed zone, making short-term volatility and consolidation inevitable.
The real decisive level is $81,000. A daily close above this level would be a valid breakout, opening the door to $90,000+ territory; otherwise, $80,000 will remain a strong resistance with repeated back-and-forth movements. The first support below is at $76,700, with strong support at $74,000; breaking below that would mean a return to the $70,000 range consolidation.
Whether $80,000 can hold in the medium term depends on two key factors:
• Whether spot ETF inflows continue, which forms the market’s foundation
• The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy pace; as long as expectations for loose liquidity remain intact, the overall direction remains unchanged
The post-halving supply contraction cycle is still ongoing, and the medium- to long-term upward foundation remains. But crypto assets are highly volatile, and high-level consolidation is normal; there is no scenario of only rising without falling. #BTC 8 月 26 日，据TradingBeats监测显示，未来24小时内，约95.44万枚HYPE将结束7天质押提现等待期并转入现货账户，按当前价格计算价值约7809.4万美元。目前全网仍有约322.52万枚HYPE处于提现队列，价值约2.64亿美元 根据Hyperliquid官方规则，HYPE从质押余额转回现货账户需等待7天。未来24小时内，到账规模最大的三个地址合计将接收约67.69万枚HYPE，价值约5538.2万美元，占同期到账量约70.9% 其中：- 0x0f99：约30.07万枚HYPE将于明日凌晨到账，价值约2459.8万美元，其当前质押余额已基本清空； - 0x393d：约20.65万枚HYPE将于明日中午到账，价值约1689.9万美元 该地址为Kinetiq StakingManager，此次资金流动更接近协议赎回及流动性管理； - 0x82b0：约16.97万枚HYPE将于明日下午到账，价值约1388.5万美元，其质押余额同样已归零 因此，未来24小时约7800万美元的到账规模中，并不能全部直接视为潜在卖压。协议地址占据其中一部分，而0x0f99与0x82b0在解除质#WarshAtJacksonHole Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28. Markets are looking for guidance on whether the Fed could raise rates again as inflation remains elevated and Treasury yields rise. The July policy decision was unusually divided, while current estimates place the probability of a September increase at roughly 40%, although that figure has moved considerably with incoming data.
A neutral speech may produce only a limited reaction because investors already expect Warsh to remain data-dependent. The larger move could come if he clearly supports further tightening or signals greater concern about financial conditions. Hawkish language would likely support the dollar and bond yields while pressuring technology stocks, gold and crypto. A more balanced message could ease those concerns. Investors should also watch July PCE inflation because the data may matter more than any isolated sentence from the speech.Microsoft's integration of Saudi Arabia's ALLAM model highlights the channel restructuring between sovereign AI and multinational giants, with the market reassessing the marginal impact of AI Agent deployment pace on risk appetite and capital allocation in the tech sector.
From the event transmission path perspective, the factors driving asset pricing are: sovereign capital's commitment to investing in localized AI infrastructure, monetization efficiency of enterprise-level distribution channels, and the friction costs of technical integration caused by geopolitical compliance. The collaboration between Saudi HUMAIN and Microsoft, integrating the Arabic flagship model ALLAM into Microsoft 365 Copilot and Foundry, and jointly developing region-specific Agents with stationed engineers, confirms the importance of multinational distribution channels in regional deployment.
This event transmits through risk appetite channels to the technology and chip sectors, prompting a short-term position shift from chasing monopoly premiums of single general models to reallocating towards hardware and channel ecosystems with government and enterprise deployment capabilities. If sovereign capital continues to invest in local infrastructure, the global tech sector's risk aversion will ease temporarily, driving risk capital to concentrate on the B-end Agent deployment chain.
The upside scenario trigger condition is: Microsoft Foundry and Microsoft 365 Copilot successfully complete deep integration of the ALLAM model and Agent in real industries such as energy and finance. At this point, it is necessary to observe the actual conversion rate of government and enterprise B-end orders and subsequent investments by Middle Eastern sovereign capital in related infrastructure. If B-end Agent payment willingness significantly increases without compliance blockages, capital will substantially increase positions in computing power channels and enterprise service distribution targets. The failure signal is technical integration stagnation caused by regional compliance reviews.
The downside scenario trigger condition is: rising geopolitical compliance policy barriers or data sovereignty restrictions cause the joint development progress of the engineering team to fall below expectations. Variables to watch include the speed of regional compliance review implementation and cross-border API call obstructions. Once compliance barriers interrupt system integration, market risk aversion toward sovereign AI commercial deployment will rapidly rise, triggering indiscriminate withdrawal of early-stage B-end monetization positions. The failure signal is the issuance of a clear compliance exemption list by sovereign entities.
The current judgment failure conditions in this scenario are if general large models achieve breakthrough technological compression in multilingual and cross-cultural scenarios, causing local models to lose independent value; or if global tech capital liquidity is hit again due to renewed tightening of macro inflation expectations, leading to a systemic decline in sovereign capital's willingness to invest in AI infrastructure.
Key variables to observe in the next 7 days are the interface deployment progress of the joint Microsoft and HUMAIN engineering team on the Foundry platform and initial trial feedback from Middle Eastern government and enterprise customers on the ALLAM Agent.
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口Today
a-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks all closed higher
Crude oil continues to decline, gold and Bitcoin are under pressure and falling from high levels
It depends on what the PCE says, as it is the main indicator for measuring inflation
In the first half of the year, due to geopolitical oil price impacts, inflation was sticky and declined slowly
Reviewing July, WTI crude oil rose 21.65%, Brent +20.29%
But the core PCE excludes the most seasonally volatile components, such as food and energy
Therefore, if consumption levels rise, meaning higher than expected, rate hike expectations heat up (gold and Bitcoin under pressure); if as expected, little impact; if lower than expected, rate hike expectations cool down (gold and Bitcoin get support)
Here is July personal spending, which is related to consumer confidence
When personal spending increases along with rising inflation pressure, rate hike expectations also rise; conversely, rate hike expectations cool down
As for me, I am optimistic about it being lower than or equal to expectations because July PPI declined1859年，达尔文在《物种起源》里写下一句改变人类认知的话—— “存活下来的物种，不是最强壮的，也不是最聪明的，而是最适应变化的。” 一百六十多年后，我发现这句话不只适用于生物。它同样适用于货币。 如果你把每一种货币看作一个物种，把全球经济看作一个生态系统，你会看到一部波澜壮阔的进化史。而比特币，正是这场自然选择中，迄今为止最完美的适应者。 货币是一个物种，不是一种工具 这是我们理解比特币的前提。 大多数人以为货币是人造的工具——政府发明它、央行管理它、银行分发它。但如果你把时间线拉长到五千年，你会发现货币根本不是被"发明"出来的。它是被"选择"出来的。 就像自然界中，不是上帝创造了适者，而是环境淘汰了不适者。 贝壳曾经统治人类交易数千年。从太平洋岛屿到非洲内陆，从中国古代到美洲原住民，贝壳是全球分布最广的原始货币。它为什么被淘汰？不是因为有人宣布"贝壳不再是钱了"，而是因为一个更适应环境的竞争者出现了——金属货币。 贝壳太脆弱、太容易获取、太容易伪造。当青铜器和铁器文明崛起，贝壳在竞争中自然落败。没有人投票决定淘汰贝壳，它只是在自然选择中输掉了。 黄金：原子世界的顶级物种 黄金为什么小薇财经8月26日消息，BitPool（B.TOP）创始人江卓尔在一篇帖子中表示，在周末大涨之后的美国股市首个交易日，ETF资金流向成为关键观察指标。数据显示， 比特币ETF净流入3.14亿美元， 而以太坊ETF净流入1.80亿美元。美国股市资金偏多，表明本轮上涨已获得进一步资金确认， 比特币跌回6.7万美元起点之下的概率非常低。同时，资金流入以太坊ETF相当于比特币的57.2%，显著高于ETH/BTC总市值占比18.8%。基于此，他认为ETH将继续扮演本轮牛市的“发动机”。随着特朗普大力拥抱区块链以及《CLARITY法案》的推进，诸如美元、美国股票和美国债券等金融资产可能进一步走上区块链，被代币化，并具备智能合约能力。他认为这将推动更多传统金融从业者理解并投资区块链生态。Most crypto traders watch Bitcoin when the market gets volatile, but today there is another number worth watching: Core PCE. It is one of the inflation measures the Fed watches closely, and the result can change expectations around interest rates, liquidity, and risk assets. Here’s the part many traders miss: A “good” inflation number is not automatically bullish, and a “bad” number is not automatically bearish. The market reacts to the difference between what was expected and what actually arri$ETH ETH at $2,447 — Record ETF Inflows, Price Stalls
$697M ETF inflow last week — **highest of the year**. Gas fees $2.1M→$8.2M/day, ETH back in deflation. Yet price stuck at $2,447.
Why no move? 30% weekly gain → RSI 70→80+, overbought. Q4 Glamsterdam upgrade still far — no fresh catalyst.
$2,500–$2,546 is ceiling; $2,400 is support. Break $2,500 → $2,600. Lose $2,400 → caution.
Trend intact, just tired. Let it breathe. Don't chase.Jiang Zhuoer said the bear market is 90% over, but I won't go all-in directly
After Jiang Zhuoer proposed that "90% of the bear market is already over," many in the community took this as a signal to go all-in with leverage on BTC and BNB, expecting a bull market to take off immediately.
Reviewing his full strategy, he is not calling for everyone to all-in at once. He still reserves 20-30% cash, plans to wait for a pullback range to continue adding positions in batches, and will use contracts to hedge and protect spot positions, accepting that there is still a 10% downside risk in the market.
On-chain data also supports this: miner sell pressure has weakened, but whales still transfer chips to exchanges in batches at high levels. BTC's key watershed at 80000 faces repeated resistance, with support at 77800. Coins like XRP and OKB have not collectively exploded, showing clear characteristics of stock game.
What the expert is talking about is a long-term probabilistic judgment, not a guarantee of an immediate surge. Big players can withstand 20-30% drawdowns, but ordinary retail investors with leverage get liquidated with even a slight pullback. You can learn from his cycle thinking, but position sizes should be based on your own risk tolerance.
Risk warning: Cycle judgments are probabilistic in nature; the market still carries black swan risks. Do not take cycle views as direct short-term trading instructions. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL Microsoft announced a long-term strategic partnership with Saudi AI organization HUMAIN, directly integrating its Arabic flagship model ALLAM into Microsoft Foundry and Microsoft 365 Copilot, and deploying cutting-edge engineers to jointly develop region-specific Agents.
This move sends a very clear signal that the global AI competition is accelerating from a unilateral output of general large models to a new stage of sovereign AI and regional localization implementation.
For a long time, Silicon Valley giants have led the world with advantages in computing power and English-language corpora, but in specific regional markets such as the Middle East, language habits, religious and cultural compliance, and data sovereignty demands have created very high barriers. Multilingual models purely fine-tuned in English find it difficult to fully penetrate core government and enterprise scenarios. Microsoft's choice to directly adopt Saudi Arabia's native ALLAM model is based on the core logic of exchanging an open ecosystem for the vast government and enterprise B2B market and oil capital support in the Middle East.
This cooperation model reveals a key division of labor for future AI commercialization: regions with strong sovereign capital like the Middle East are responsible for building proprietary models and data assets that meet local demands, while giants like Microsoft act as super conduits through operating system-level enterprise distribution channels. This combination of sovereign models plus multinational distribution channels will greatly accelerate the penetration of AI Agents in real industries such as energy and finance.
Do you think the future global AI ecosystem will move toward an absolute monopoly of a few general models, or a diversified pattern divided by sovereign models of various countries? 8 月 26 日，莱比特矿池（B.TOP）创始人江卓尔发文表示，在周末大涨后的首个美股交易日，ETF 资金流向成为关键观察指标。数据显示，比特币 ETF 净流入 3.14 亿美元，以太坊 ETF 净流入 1.8 亿美元 美股资金正在追多，这意味着本轮上涨进一步获得资金确认，比特币再跌回 67,000 美元起涨点下方的概率非常低。同时，以太坊 ETF 流入资金相当于比特币的 57.2%，明显高于 ETH/BTC 总市值占比 18.8% 的水平，他据此认为 ETH 仍将继续扮演本轮牛市的「发动机」 随着特朗普大幅拥抱区块链以及《CLARITY Act》推进，美元、美股、美债等金融资产未来可能进一步上链、代币化并智能合约化。他认为，这将推动更多传统金融人士了解并投资相关区块链生态Listening to Arthur Hayes' statements can lead to pitfalls; it's better to look at on-chain wallets than just his words
Arthur Hayes, as a macro expert, once publicly favored $HYPE, setting a target price of $150, attracting many retail investors to rush in. However, not long after, his wallet address completed a full liquidation, and many who followed blindly got stuck at the high point.
I also fell into a similar trap before. After reading his tweets, I heavily invested in $ZEC, ignoring the real on-chain transfer records. Later, during a review, I understood: public statements are opinions, but on-chain transfers reflect his real money moves. Statements can change anytime, but wallet inflows and outflows are hard to fake.
At the same time, market data shows HYPE's 24-hour turnover rate has long stayed above 70%, with frequent contract liquidations, making it a high-risk coin with fast capital in and out. BTC and $ETH also have significant volatility, but their chip structures are relatively stable.
Now my habit is: first check what his wallet is really buying or selling, then read the tweets; the order must not be reversed. What the big players say and what they actually do can be completely different.
Risk warning: The above only represents personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL The ETF data is quite impressive, with net inflows for 7 consecutive days, showing no signs of stopping.
BTC ETF: $314 million in a single day, $3.03 billion accumulated in August
On August 26, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of $314 million, marking the 7th consecutive trading day of positive inflows. The cumulative net inflow in August has reached $3.03 billion, just $390 million short of the monthly inflow record of $3.42 billion set in October 2025. At this pace, breaking the record in the remaining 4 trading days of August is almost certain.
Institutional details: BlackRock IBIT contributed $284 million, Fidelity FBTC added $15.4 million, Bitwise BITB added $3 million, and MSBT added $4.5 million.
ETH ETF: 7 consecutive days, $180 million per day
The Ethereum spot ETF also saw net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a single-day net inflow of $179.8 million on Tuesday. BlackRock ETHA net inflow was $146 million, Fidelity FETH net inflow was $25.8 million.
To be honest
But one detail is worth noting—the price and funds are diverging. During the 7 consecutive days of ETF inflows, BTC actually fell from above 80,000 to around 78,880. The incremental funds did not push the price up, indicating that the buying is absorbing profit-taking and leverage liquidations, rather than new one-sided capital setting the price.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC Due to character limits, brothers, please check the image, all of Lolo's analysis and thoughts are here If tonight's market is a quiet chessboard, then tomorrow's Nvidia earnings report will be the first heavy stone about to fall. Have you noticed BTC is stuck in the narrow alley between 79K and 81K, no longer fluctuating like it was a few days ago? Last night, BTC tried above 80K but was gently pushed back as if hitting an invisible ceiling, now retreating back to around 79K. ETH is around 2470, SOL about 99, overall in a "breathing still" state. Prices haven't moved, but the derivatives market has changed — funding rates have shifted from hot to cool, indicating leveraged funds are actively pulling back before earnings reports; no one wants to be the one betting on direction before the data releases. This kind of "fake death" rhythm is actually more worth watching than big rises or falls. Because what the market is really trading isn't the current price, but Nvidia's answer sheet early tomorrow morning. It's not just an ordinary stock, but the master switch for the entire AI narrative and risk appetite. The direction of the US AI chain will directly transmit to sentiment and incremental capital willingness on the crypto side. - If the earnings report is strong and Nasdaq moves first, BTC will most likely take advantage to challenge the short-term target of 83K, and knockoffs will catch their breath. - If the data falls short of expectations, risk assets will take a short hit, and BTC may push back to lower ranges, but then it will actually be the comfort zone for the first batch of cash waiters. Many people only focus on whether prices will rise or fall, overlooking a more critical point: the current derivatives market has already...MicroStrategy holds cash but does not buy coins, this is worth being cautious about
I have been tracking MicroStrategy MSTR's on-chain and financial report data. This institution holds a cash pool of $1.59 billion specifically for buying coins, with a BTC position of 840,447 coins at an average cost of $75,385. During this round of BTC rebound above 78,000, it has not rushed to buy; instead, it sold 6,916 BTC earlier to optimize its debt structure.
Previously, the market treated MicroStrategy as a no-brainer bullish signal—whenever it raised funds, everyone would blindly rush into BTC and ETH. But now the myth has changed: having money does not mean immediately buying coins. On the contract side, the 24-hour BTC open interest remains high, with longs and shorts roughly balanced, and incremental funds are not as overwhelming as imagined. Consequently, $SOL can only follow the market's oscillation and struggles to form an independent trend.
This teaches me that if institutions do not enter the market, relying solely on retail investors and contract leverage will limit the market's potential. Do not blindly believe "big players with money will pump the market"; institutions also time their entries carefully. Now I use MSTR's coin purchase records as an indicator to verify market strength rather than as a basis for opening positions.
Risk reminder: Corporate institutional fund movements are financial behaviors and do not represent short-term price fluctuations; they should not be directly used as trading signals. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC at $79K — Real Pullback or Just a Fakeout?
BTC hit $81,255 (3-month high) and pulled back to $79,000. Sound familiar? $80K has been rejected multiple times now.
The rally was real: ~$2B ETF net inflow last week — institutions buying hard. Treasury buybacks weakening USD — macro tailwinds intact.
The pullback was also real: 25% weekly gain → overbought RSI; extreme greed (80); heavy resistance at $80K — triple whammy triggered profit-taking.
Trend intact, but needs cooling: $80,000**$BTC's recent surge stems from a major drop in AI, combined with Wall Street promoting dollar devaluation, leading a large influx of funds into the crypto market for safe haven! A weekly gain of over 24% was driven by a short whale liquidation causing a cascade of liquidations! Now, with the US debt crisis reemerging (new maturity of 840 billion with no takers), the dollar index is expected to rebound and strengthen! Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to enter a downward correction phase!#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
The 80,000 mark, I think, is not that easy to hold.
BTC has broken through 80,000, indeed moving fiercely, rising from 64,000 in a week, with ETF net inflows of 1.9 billion dollars, and shorts liquidated by over 4 billion.
But honestly, I’m not confident about this level.
This rally is different from the last one; this wave heavily relies on ETFs and short squeezes, representing passive buying, not a push driven by continuous new capital inflows. Also, there is a large amount of trapped positions accumulated around 80,000 that need to be slowly digested. A pullback right after touching this level is highly probable.
Another variable is this week’s Jackson Hole symposium. If Powell speaks dovishly, it will take off directly; if hawkish, it might pull back to 73,000 or even lower.
My simple thought: don’t chase. Wait until it stabilizes. Holding cash is more reassuring than being trapped at the peak. $ETH Tonight's in-depth analysis of PCE: Inflation data landing will determine the Fed's direction in September 👍 At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday evening, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the July PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and this report will directly influence the market's judgment on whether to raise interest rates in September. The previously released July CPI and PPI have not yet shown signs of inflation accelerating again. Reviewing June's PCE, it experienced the first month-on-month decline since 2020, dropping by 0.11%. Institutions generally predict a slight rebound in overall PCE for July, with a month-on-month increase of about 0.1%, and the year-on-year figure expected to slightly fall from June's 3.7% to around 3.6%. After excluding volatile items like food and energy, core inflation pressure remains significant. The mainstream market expectation is that July's core PCE year-on-year will hold steady at 3.3%, the same as June; core PCE month-on-month is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%. Calculated, the U.S. core PCE year-on-year has been above the Fed's 2% inflation target for 65 consecutive months. Given the current situation, the Fed does not yet have enough confidence to declare that the battle against inflation is completely over. Two new factors are stirring core inflation Many investment bank analysts mention that inflation disturbances caused by tariffs are basically no longer visible, but new forces are still pushing prices higher. One is the expansion of the AI industry. Analysts from the French Foreign Trade Bank state that the AI wave is driving data center construction and increases in computer hardware and software prices.At this point, it might be wise to consider retreating! Nvidia is about to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes, which is early tomorrow morning. I believe that regardless of the earnings report outcome, there will be a major crash in crypto. Let's break it down step by step. —————————————————— If Nvidia's earnings meet expectations, its stock price will most likely decline. Because its market cap is currently very high, just meeting expectations won't be enough to sustain the current stock price. It must exceed expectations to possibly maintain the current stock price. Once Nvidia's stock price falls, the entire US tech stock sector will be dragged down. Because its market cap is so large, it can influence the entire market. Once the US tech stock sector declines, many institutions will indiscriminately sell off. And crypto, having already surged significantly, will be the first to be sold off. Crypto is very likely to crash hard. —————————————————— If Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations, stocks like SanDisk will probably see a significant rebound. At that time, crypto might come under pressure because a lot of risk capital will withdraw to stocks like SanDisk. This is the best-case scenario I have deduced, and the only outcome where crypto can maintain its current price. However, I think the probability of Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations is relatively low. In the current market environment, it would be good enough if their earnings just meet expectations. —————————————————— If Nvidia's earnings fall short of expectations, then it might face a downturn.Gold's high-level volatility actually indicates that it is no longer just a safe-haven trade.
In the past, many people bought gold thinking about war, inflation, or a weak dollar. But this cycle is more complex: fiscal credit, long-term bond yields, central bank purchases, ETF funds, AI bubble anxiety—all crowded into the same asset.
This makes gold very strong but also very crowded. Because when everyone buys the same asset for different reasons, the price may continue to hold firm in the short term, but once the Fed speaks, bond market sentiment shifts, or the dollar rebounds changing expectations, volatility can be fierce.
I don't think the gold story is over. It's just that chasing it at this level can't be explained by the word "safe-haven" alone. Are you buying protection, or are you buying a sense of security that others have already crowded into?
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million to 980,000;
while the bar next to it at $62,000 shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we deduced in the possible future scenarios on August 21 (see the quote): once chips start to loosen, the price will either consolidate or even pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
Now it seems the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
a strong wave of profit-taking occurred, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital absorbing the supply here.
Assuming a new chip peak can indeed form near $76,000-$77,000, do you remember the "double anchor structure" theory? Then the subsequent BTC pullback will very likely fall in the middle of the structure.
That is roughly around $68,000-$70,000. $ETH $BTC $SOL Fundamental Research Report $FLOKI / Floki (Meme/Payment) $3.20
Conclusion first: Floki ($FLOKI) overall score 50/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Floki (token $FLOKI), Meme/Payment sector. Focuses on Meme + on-chain university. Competitors include DOGE, SHIB. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Floki $3.00B, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. FDV, Floki $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Annual revenue, Floki $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Floki undisclosed, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implementation, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Ongoing monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitIs this related to the U.S. repurchasing long-term Treasury bonds? This surge isn't just for one reason; several factors come together. Saying "the Treasury bought Treasury bonds so the price increase" is actually only half the story. The trigger was news from the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. announced it would double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion. This background is crucial: U.S. Treasuries just broke through $40 trillion, long-term rates keep climbing, and the yield on 30-year Treasuries once reached its highest level since 2007. The government is taking action to suppress long-term yields at this time, and the market interprets it as a signal: the U.S. may not want to accept further rate hikes and may use various means to depreciate the dollar. Once this logic holds, assets like gold and Bitcoin—which you can't print—will have reasons to rise. After the news broke, the dollar weakened, and gold rose in sync with Bitcoin, confirming this logic. But the price surged within hours, mainly because shorts were liquidated in one wave. Before this surge, Bitcoin had been sluggish for several months, with a large amount of money shorting. Treasury News pushed the price upward, and after breaking through several key levels, short sellers began to be forcibly liquidated. The forced liquidation logic was: exchanges automatically went to the market to buy coins to replenish positions; when buying orders rose, the price went higher, and when prices rose, more short liquidations were triggered...... This cycle was extremely fierce. On August 19 alone, about $2.7 billion in short positions in the entire crypto market were liquidated, the highest since statistics began, with Bitcoin shorts losing over $1 billion within an hour. Then real money from institutions started entering the market. Shortoptions expiring this Friday deserve close attention!
Around 81,700 BTC options contracts are set to expire, with a total notional value of roughly $6.4 billion.
There are approximately 44,600 call options versus 37,000 puts, putting the Put/Call ratio at 0.83 and keeping the overall positioning bullish.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold
#WarshAtJacksonHole
#IranSanctionsAndTalks On July 11th, I mentioned that the market's phase bottom had already appeared, and the main strategy was to buy on dips. Today, I’m updating my view: this phase bottom is very likely to become the historical bottom of this cycle. In other words, the bear market is over, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be short-term pullbacks. We are currently in a non-consensus phase where market perceptions are not unified. The four-year cycle won’t disappear, but as an asset matures and is driven by macro liquidity and asset allocation, the cycle will become distorted.
There was once a view that the worse the liquidity, the more you should play small-cap assets; the better the liquidity, the more you should play large-cap assets.
Now I’m expressing a new view: play consensus assets during non-consensus times, and play non-consensus assets during consensus times.
Simply put, take $HYPE as an example. HYPE can reach new highs during a bear market; the market invests funds and consensus into these coins, so during non-consensus times, play hype. That is, exchange temporal non-consensus for asset certainty.
In the late bull market, when everyone is discussing that BTC has become mainstream consensus and even traditional funds start aggressively allocating, BTC itself may still be very good, but the odds have been compressed by consensus. At this time, you need to exchange asset non-consensus for temporal certainty.
Summary:
When no one believes in the market, believe in the best assets;
When everyone believes in the market, look for assets no one else believes in yet.
So hold onto $HYPE 伊朗与阿曼近期的接触释放出一定的缓和信号，市场开始押注霍尔木兹海峡航运压力可能下降。若原油供应风险进一步缓解，油价降温或有助于减轻短期通胀压力。 与此同时，美国针对与伊朗有关联的网络继续追加制裁，意味着地缘政治风险并没有真正消失。 目前 $BTC 约 $81.6K，$ETH 约 $2.63K。如果谈判持续推进、能源价格回落，风险溢价下降可能进一步改善加密市场情绪，并为 BTC、ETH 带来支撑。 但需要注意的是，一旦谈判破裂、霍尔木兹局势重新升温，或美国扩大制裁范围，油价与避险情绪都可能快速反弹，加密市场也可能出现剧烈波动。 接下来真正值得关注的，不只是价格，而是地缘局势、油价与资金流能否同步改善。 #BTC #ETH #Iran #Crypto #Bitcoinam Cige. The U.S. is expanding financial and trade sanctions against Iran, while countries like Qatar are pushing to resume negotiations. Both sides, Iran and the U.S., are engaging on the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions escalation and diplomatic progress are happening simultaneously. Oil prices have not risen but instead fallen, as the market believes diplomacy is closer to yielding results than sanctions.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks The US just expanded sanctions to digital assets, and Iran immediately announced that only commercial ships are allowed through the strait, while warships are not — oil prices fell below 80, Bitcoin dropped below 79,000, and altcoins are bleeding heavily. I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: this is not the end of good news, this is the official start of Manstein's "elastic defense" — and the bulls are the enemy troops who have been lured in. ⚔️ Manstein's perspective: The bulls just finished their "blitzkrieg" and are now lured into a pocket. The core of Manstein's "elastic defense" is one sentence: actively retreat, lure the enemy deep, and then counterattack when the opponent's supply lines are stretched. The rally from 70,000 to 80,000 was the bulls' "blitzkrieg" — 4 billion shorts liquidated, a 23% rise in a week, and a 4-hour RSI soaring above 93, an extreme overbought condition. But the fuel for the blitzkrieg was the corpses of shorts, not real buying power. The shorts have been wiped out, so the fuel is gone. Now, the trap of elastic defense has been set. First, sanctions escalate, and Iran does not back down. On August 24, the US expanded sanctions to five areas including digital assets, gold, and shipping. Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor directly retorted: "The response will be more resolute than ever." Second, the strait is half open, but the other half is a trap. Iran announced that only commercial ships are allowed to pass, warships are not. At the same time, Iran's foreign minister clearly said: "The opening of the strait depends on whether the US fully accepts Iran's conditions." Oil prices fell, but the geopolitical risk premium has not disappeared — it just changed from an "open card" to a "hidden card." Third, Bitcoin has already knelt first. On the 25th, it just broke through 81 Recently, after BTC's big rally, it started to consolidate sideways. Although the overall cryptocurrency market has risen about 30% in just one week, strangely, the market doesn't seem to have experienced a particularly strong FOMO, nor the kind of crazy sentiment like "the bull market is here, hurry and go all in." I wonder if anyone else feels the same? Of course, a small portion of people did make money. For example, Brother Maji reportedly rolled over his position starting with 60,000 yuan and eventually earned over 10 million, which is indeed an extraordinary return. But the problem is, most retail investors actually missed this wave. Why? Because during the previous market downturn, many retail investors were waiting for the so-called "last dip." "If it dips one more time, I'll buy." "I'll get in when BTC drops to above 50,000." "It's not the real bottom yet." But as they waited, BTC didn't give another chance and instead pulled up directly. Now, there are still some people thinking: "It's okay, after this rally finishes, it will definitely drop again, then I'll get in." But I think this time it might not be that easy. Because the funds driving this rally may have already changed. First, those bottom-fishing this time might not be retail investors, but institutions. I recently checked the BTC balances across all exchanges, currently about 700,000 BTC. Of course, this number may vary slightly across different data platforms, but the trend is very clear: BTC on exchanges is decreasing. Why is the exchange balance worth paying attention to? Because for most$BTC
Money is still flowing in, but BTC has fallen back below 80,000.
This is more noteworthy than a simple 5% drop.
This wave has risen all the way from over 60,000, and the first half is easy to understand:
Short sellers were heavily squeezed, and the liquidations themselves created buying pressure.
But now the situation is starting to change.
ETF funds are still flowing in, but BTC hasn’t continued to surge with the positive news; instead, it has fallen back to around 79,000.
So what I want to see most now is not "when will it break 83,000."
But rather:
Money is still coming in, so why is the price starting to stall?
If BTC stabilizes above 80,000 again, I would consider it just a strong turnover.
But if ETFs keep buying and positive news keeps coming, yet the price finds it harder and harder to break through each time,
then we need to be cautious.
Because the real danger in the market often doesn’t come from big negative news.
It’s when the good news is still there, but the price no longer rewards it.
$BTC Recent negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz have brought new expectations of easing to the market. The latest news shows that both sides are discussing temporary shipping corridors and related security arrangements. As a result, international oil prices have continued to fall, with Brent crude once falling to around $86, easing market concerns about energy supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to impose economic pressure and sanctions on Iran-related networks, indicating that geopolitical risks have not truly disappeared. Any new sanctions or unexpected negotiations could once again push energy prices and market risk aversion. In the crypto market, $BTC is currently fluctuating around $79,000, while $ETH is trading around $2,450. After a recent rapid rise, the market has begun to see some profit-taking, but overall risk appetite remains worth watching. If diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman continues, risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz will further decline, and inflationary pressures from falling oil prices may ease, potentially creating a more favorable macro environment for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. 📈 On the other hand, if negotiations stall, sanctions escalate, or regional tensions worsen again, market sentiment could quickly reverse, and crypto volatility could amplify once more. ⚠️ Next to focus on: Iran negotiations → Hormuz shipping → international oil prices $→ and macro sentiment → crypto capital flows. #BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranNVIDIA's earnings report will be revealed tonight, a key battle in the AI bull market—how should it be traded?
NVIDIA's "better-than-expected" performance this quarter is already the market's default script. Whether the stock price can rise depends on whether management can deliver three simultaneous benefits: improved profitability of cloud providers, controllable financing risks, and large-scale capital returns. For investors optimistic about the AI theme, relatively cheap options offer an asymmetric participation window. The deeper trading logic lies in whether the Rubin platform can initiate the next round of higher base growth curve, and whether the controversy over circular financing can be clarified, which will determine if the valuation narrative can complete its transition.
NVIDIA's earnings report this quarter is very likely still a strong performance, but the market's question is no longer "whether it exceeds expectations," but whether it can provide sufficient answers after exceeding expectations. From options pricing to institutional disagreements, from circular financing controversies to power bottlenecks, this earnings report is becoming a touchstone for whether the AI bull market can enter the next phase.Bitcoin firmly stands above $80,000, with about $2.6 billion flowing into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week. This figure itself tells us that institutional funds are not leaving, but are expressing their stance with real money. 💧 When large-cap blue-chip assets are so strong in attracting money, the market often experiences a subtle divergence: some funds continue to chase certainty, while others start looking for greater elasticity on the periphery. What is worth watching now is whether this capital rotation is spreading from Bitcoin to Ethereum and higher-volatility assets, such as platform coins like BNB and OKB, as well as some infrastructure tokens. 🌀 Sustained net inflows into ETFs are currently one of the most solid supporting logics. It means traditional funds are gradually allocating crypto assets through compliant channels, and this buying behavior tends to be more sustained and better resistant to short-term sentiment fluctuations. Meanwhile, changes in Bitcoin's market share and Ethereum's relative strength have become key indicators for judging whether funds are truly flowing over. If Bitcoin's dominance starts to decline while Ethereum continues to strengthen, it is usually a sign that capital risk appetite is rising. 🌱 However, it is important to note that capital rotation is never a straight line. Last week's large inflows may have partially priced in the current price, and whether this can continue depends on the combination of macro liquidity and market confidence. For high-beta assets, resilience is two-way: stronger during upswings and more sensitive during pullbacks. 📉 Right now, it feels more like a structural selection period: Bitcoin is consolidating itselfBTC breaks through $80,000: Sentiment rapidly reverses, a game under a short squeeze scenario. Bitcoin once surged to $81,000, then retreated to fluctuate between $78,000 and $79,000, with a weekly gain of nearly 24%, marking the best weekly performance since 2023. In just one month, crypto market sentiment has undergone a dramatic reversal, with the Fear and Greed Index breaking out from the fear zone at 36 to 80, entering an extreme greed state.
The core driver of this rally is the return of institutional funds. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.92 billion in one week, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Coinbase premium turned positive from negative, reflecting that US institutions are continuously accumulating, driving Ethereum to hold steady above $2,500, and triggering a comprehensive market profit effect.
At the macro level, it became the fuse for the rally. The US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $40 billion, leading to expectations of loose market trading liquidity. US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, with funds flowing into Bitcoin, gold, and other assets, boosting this round of rebound.
However, extreme greed is a double-edged sword. The index standing above 80 means a large amount of momentum-following funds entering the market, increasing short-term correction risks. Although the bull market allows the continuation of fervent sentiment, this rally includes buying from short squeeze liquidations; after the shorts are exhausted, the upward momentum may weaken.
Whether the $80,000 level can hold depends on observing two signals: whether the spot ETF continues to have net inflows—once it turns to outflows, it can easily trigger profit-taking escapes; and if the Fear and Greed Index continues to rise, it indicates the market sentiment is overheated. $PENGU short position dropped from 0.009513 to 0.009257, with a floating profit of 134%. Watching the order book, the market maker's quote intervals are widening, indicating they are actively reducing quote frequency to lower risk exposure.
Once the market maker withdraws, the order book becomes a vacuum, and the price will gap instantly. Holding a 50x position during such abnormal quote intervals is the most dangerous. I took profit on 90% directly, leaving 10% with a stop loss raised to 0.009513 to break even, and a trailing stop at 0.0094.
If you haven't entered yet, don't open positions when market making quotes are abnormal—that's a pit with no one to take the other side. $BTC $ETH