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Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so please be aware of the risks. Entering August, the crypto market ended its previous prolonged low-level consolidation, and BTC and ETH saw a clear rebound. However, their performance diverged, with the market driven mainly by macro liquidity expectations, institutional capital, and leveraged capital competition. Both fundamentals and technical aspects are worth reviewing. From a price perspective, Bitcoin's rebound this round is stronger, recently breaking through the $80,000 mark, a new high since May, with a considerable weekly gain. Spot ETFs have seen a period of large net inflows, indicating signs of traditional institutional capital flowing back. Ethereum rebounded in sync with the broader market, but its overall elasticity was weaker than BTC's. The ETH/BTC ratio remained range-bound without a clear catch-up rally, reflecting that current market funds are currently flowing more toward leading Bitcoin and that allocation to Ethereum is relatively conservative. The macro perspective remains the core variable determining the overall market direction. Recently, US Treasury yields have declined, the dollar has weakened, and expectations of marginal liquidity easing in the market have directly benefited risk assets, making them the main external drivers of this rebound. The market is closely watching signals from the Federal Reserve's related meetings. Every change in inflation and employment data can quickly alter market expectations for interest rates, thereby driving significant volatility in BTC and ETH. Before the high interest rate environment fully shifts, the market is more likely to be a corrective rebound, and a major trend reversal still requires more confirmation signals. Regulatory news continues to stir up the market, especially regarding U.S. encryption lawsWash—What faction is he really from? I don't think he'll be hawkish this time
I personally judge that he has a hawkish background, no doubt, but this speech is very unlikely to be truly hawkish
After the July FOMC, the market has lost patience with him. If he doesn't speak up, the market will continue to stall, but he also doesn't dare to clearly call for a rate hike—long-term bond yields have already surged above 5%, and the market is tightening on its own; raising rates now would be like triggering an explosion.
Economic data doesn't support it either—nonfarm payrolls are negative, retail is declining, consumer confidence is collapsing, employment and consumption are loosening, so emphasizing rate hikes would be going against the economic data.
Therefore, I think this time he will use hawkish language to package a "flexible" stance, say some tough words, but won't block the path completely.
I don't care what faction he claims to be from, as long as he stops playing Tai Chi and gives a direction that can be understood, that would be positive.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BCH 280.13→267.99, 20x +90.60%. On-chain is not dead, the contract side hasn't accelerated much either, the fee rate is near neutral with a slight bullish bias, OI hasn't exploded, indicating a retreat rather than a stampede.
Order book: 262-265 as support steps, 250-255 defense, resistance at 272-275/280-282 above. $HYPE +3.88% is grabbing hot money.
Next move: short on rebound at 272-275, chase if it breaks 262. Don't accept digital cash history, accept transaction rejection.$xSPCX Falcon 9 retirement official announcement leads to a 2.19% rise, Starship era countdown
SPCX currently at 137.95, up 2.19%. Elon Musk confirmed that after Starship achieves stable flight, Falcon 9 will be gradually phased out, with all resources redirected to Starship. The legendary rocket, in service for 16 years with nearly 700 launches, is entering retirement countdown.
Starship offers greater capacity and lower costs; with resources concentrated, profitability and moat will improve. However, three major short-term challenges: 319 million restricted shares unlocking, Q2 net loss of 541 million, and Capex of 15.8 billion invested in AI computing power.
Bulls are supporting: institutions are heavily building positions, Nvidia holds about 122.7 million SpaceX shares valued near 21 billion. Falcon retirement gives bulls a new narrative.
Essentially, it's a bet on Elon Musk + Starship's long-term story. Short-term unlocking pressure is significant; 130-135 is the core zone for bulls and bears. Light positions in batches, don't treat it as short-term speculation. #SPCX $SPCX Iran's stock market surges, with geopolitical easing as the main reason🔥
One hour after yesterday's opening, the Tehran index rose over 100,000 points, breaking through 6.2 million points; today it rose another 155,000 points, stabilizing at 6.385 million points, with 90% of stocks rising, marking the second consecutive day of a breakout. It had just broken 5.4 million points on August 5, surging 800,000 points in 20 days.
The core driver is the easing of US-Iran tensions: Iran and Oman reached an understanding on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, allowing only commercial vessels to pass; the market also hears that the US and Iran have reached consensus on a ceasefire clause, including freedom of navigation through the strait.
However, it should be noted that this round of gains also has domestic factors: Iran's high inflation and currency depreciation make the stock market a safe haven against inflation, with risk-averse funds flowing in to push up the index. Still, geopolitical easing remains uncertain, as the US Secretary of Defense still states "will strike Iran if necessary," so if the situation fluctuates, the sustainability of the rally is questionable.→ The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released today at 8:30 AM ET, with the market particularly focused on its impact on rates and risky assets. → The consensus expects overall PCE at 3.6% year-over-year, down from 3.7% previously. → Core PCE is expected at 3.3%, still well above the Fed's 2% target. ► Scenario to watch → PCE below expectations → bond yields ↓ → dollar pressure ↓ → potential support for BTC,Unitree Technology has dropped sharply, but the valuation is still the key issue. 📉
The company has real products, profitability, and strong robotics capabilities—but the stock price already reflects huge future expectations.
The real test now: repeat orders, industrial adoption, reliability, and customer ROI.
Great company ≠ cheap stock. Let earnings catch up with expectations.$SOL, $OKB, SK Hynix, SanDisk｜Comprehensive Analysis of Trading Volume + Trends
1. $SOL (Solana)
• 24h total network trading volume: spot + contracts combined approximately $3.4–5.3 billion
• Volume characteristics: Significant volume increase during recent uptrend phases, volume contraction during pullbacks; high contract proportion, very active leveraged funds, MEME coin funds continuously moving on-chain, volatility amplified.
• Trend assessment: Mid-term oscillating upward trend, relying on overall BTC market sentiment; short-term in high-level consolidation. Clear resistance above; if subsequent spot volume does not keep up during rallies, rapid and deep pullbacks are likely; positives come from network upgrades and institutional tokenization narratives; risks include market pullbacks and large MEME token unlock sell pressure.
2. $OKB (Platform Token)
• 24h total network trading volume: $36 million–$270 million, overall volume relatively low
• Volume characteristics: Low turnover rate, liquidity much smaller than SOL; rarely sustained large volume surges, mostly pulse-like short-term volume spikes followed by rapid contraction.
• Trend assessment: Strong independent market attributes, highly tied to exchange revenue and buyback/burn policies. Major trend is wide horizontal oscillation; without major catalysts, difficult to enter a unilateral bull market. Weak liquidity is the biggest risk, prone to slippage during sharp rises and falls.
3. SK Hynix ($SKHY US ADR / Korean stock)
• US ADR single-day trading volume: about $1.95 billion; Korean local stock daily average volume even higher, options trading very active
• Volume characteristics: Explosive volume expansion at IPO in July; volume surged again during August’s sharp drop and buyback-driven rebound; volume usually declines otherwise. US ADR generally trades at a premium to Korean stock, limited arbitrage channels, prone to price divergence.
• Trend assessment: Mid-to-long-term logic based on HBM high-bandwidth memory AI demand; short-term intense volatility. Positives from large-scale share buybacks; risks include concerns about storage cycle peak, huge capital expenditures, and ADR premium contraction at any time. Classified as a high-volatility cyclical growth stock.
4. SanDisk $SNDK (US stock)
• Single-day trading volume: recently fluctuating between $13–34 billion, volume spikes sharply on earnings and sector rallies
• Volume characteristics: Large volume turnover accompanies big price moves; volume peaks on earnings release day, then volume declines after positive news is priced in; volume shrinks during consolidation phases.
• Trend assessment: Mid-term high-level consolidation. Core logic is AI data center NAND flash demand; biggest downside: long-term contract orders cap profit ceiling, market worries about increased storage supply and limited price upside. Heavy resistance above, every rally accompanied by significant profit-taking; only sustained flash price increases beyond expectations can trigger a new major uptrend.Written before the PCE, tonight's PCE and crude oil prices must be viewed together.
PCE represents past inflation, while crude oil represents future inflation.
Currently, international crude oil is approaching $85. Once it falls below $85, it will directly impact the macro mainline; if it falls below $80, it will dominate the macro trend.
Referring to the current crude oil trend, tonight's PCE meets expectations and will not have a significant impact on the market.
If higher than expected, inflationary pressure increases, and the decline in crude oil prices offsets the negative impact, limiting the drop in risk assets, unless the PCE exceeds expectations by a large margin.
If lower than expected, on the basis of easing inflationary pressure, combined with optimistic future inflation pressure, the bullish sentiment will be doubly positive. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Tonight, Macro + NVIDIA
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. will simultaneously release July's PCE inflation data and the second estimate of Q2 GDP.
The real market nerve center is the PCE.
The market currently expects July PCE year-over-year to drop from 3.7% to about 3.6%, core PCE year-over-year to remain around 3.3%, and core month-over-month to be about 0.2%.
This figure determines U.S. Treasury bonds.
If core PCE is at 0.2% or even lower, the pressure of accelerating inflation will ease, U.S. Treasury yields will likely get some relief, and gold, Bitcoin, and high-valuation tech stocks will all feel much more comfortable.
If it reaches 0.3% or higher, trouble.
Because one of the biggest pressures facing the U.S. stock market now is the high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Inflation picking up again will make the market continue to demand higher term premiums and further compress tech stock valuations.
Then, in the early hours of tomorrow, NVIDIA $NVDA
NVIDIA officially confirmed it will release its FY2027 Q2 earnings report around 04:20 Beijing time on August 27, with a conference call at 05:00.
The market has already set very high expectations.
Analyst expectations compiled by Reuters show NVIDIA's data center quarterly revenue at about $92.18 billion, while the market is also watching next quarter's revenue forecast of about $104.2 billion, as well as Rubin's volume growth rate, gross margin, and whether AI infrastructure demand can continue to support this growth.
So tonight there are actually two major events:
Is PCE expensive or not?
Is NVIDIA AI really worth this much?
If PCE is moderate, U.S. Treasury yields decline, and NVIDIA exceeds expectations, then both macro valuations and industry fundamentals will be supported simultaneously, giving semiconductor, server, optical communication, HBM, and storage sectors a chance to reignite.
Conversely, if inflation is hotter and NVIDIA's guidance is not strong enough, the market will face both [higher interest rates] and [insufficient growth].
So the important events tonight are:
The 20:30 PCE and the early morning NVIDIA earnings report.
The market will consecutively answer two questions:
Has the U.S. interest rate pressure eased?
Does the AI theme still have strong enough growth to counter high interest rates?
These two answers will greatly influence market trends before the midterm elections.US Expands Sanctions on Iran, Strait Resumption Talks Progress: Why Did Oil Prices Drop First?
This is actually a very typical "risk premium trading expectations first" scenario.
The latest news shows that although the US previously expanded economic sanctions on Iran, there is currently no further escalation of military action; meanwhile, Iran and Oman are advancing temporary shipping lanes and mine clearance arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, and Pakistan is also pushing for the resumption of US-Iran negotiations. 
So the market is starting to reprice:
The probability of conflict escalation is decreasing, and the likelihood of a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is also declining.
This is the core reason for the oil price decline.
The market is now trading not "sanctions," but "supply risk."
Under normal circumstances, the Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil and LNG transportation.
As long as the strait remains closed, oil prices must include a portion of war premium.
But now there are two changes:
First, the US has temporarily not escalated militarily.
US Secretary of State Rubio reportedly told allies that there will be no proactive new large-scale military action against Iran for now, with policy focus shifting to economic pressure. 
Second, a negotiation window for "resuming navigation" in the strait has appeared.
Iran and Oman are discussing temporary shipping corridors and mine clearance; although current shipping volume is still far below normal levels, the market has begun to trade the possibility of "supply restoration" in advance. 
So the continuous drop in oil prices does not mean the market believes the Iran issue is resolved.
Rather:
The market believes the worst-case scenario is not worsening for the time being.
This is actually a marginal positive for global risk assets.
Oil price decline means:
Energy risk premium ↓
→ Inflation expectations ↓
→ Pressure for further Fed tightening ↓
→ US Treasury yield pressure may ease
→ US stocks, BTC, and other risk assets get breathing room.
This is why oil prices + the Fed + BTC are now viewed together.
If oil prices continue to fall later and inflation data does not rise again, market concerns about further Fed rate hikes will further diminish.
For BTC, this is a relatively friendly macro environment.
⸻
But there is still a key risk here.
Negotiation progress ≠ Strait has fully resumed normal navigation.
Actual vessel traffic remains very low. On August 25, only 5 bulk commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, while the 10-day average was about 15. 
Moreover, Iran has clearly stated that the current discussion of a temporary corridor does not equal a full reopening of the strait; disagreements remain over US lifting of blockades, sanctions, and other conditions. 
So the current oil price decline is more about:
"Expectation improvement"
rather than:
"Supply has fully recovered."
Regarding BTC, I am more focused on this change.
If the following forms:
US-Iran negotiations continue → Hormuz gradually recovers → oil prices continue to fall → inflation expectations decline → Fed rate hike expectations cool down
then this chain is relatively favorable for BTC.
Especially since BTC is already at a high level, reduced macro pressure is conducive to continued capital inflow.
But if negotiations break down again, or large-scale attacks reoccur in Hormuz:
Oil prices rise again → inflation expectations rebound → Fed turns hawkish again → BTC faces pressure at high levels.
So crude oil has actually become a very important macro thermometer.
In short: this oil price decline is not because Iran risk has disappeared, but because the market is starting to believe the probability of "conflict escalation" has decreased. No further escalation of sanctions, military action paused, and Hormuz navigation talks progressing—these three signals are removing part of the war premium. For BTC, if this cooling chain can continue, it may become a latent positive factor for the continuation of the high-level market. $BTC #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $DOGE $TRUMP $HYPE
Recently, many people have been asking whether Bitcoin's surge from 60,000 to 80,000 is truly the start of a bull market or just a short squeeze. In fact, as long as you understand the flow of funds, you can grasp the essence of this rise. Many retail investors rush in eagerly when they see the price soaring, often buying at the peak. Today, I'll break it down clearly in plain language.
The trigger for this rally was the U.S. Treasury expanding the scale of bond repurchases, marginally easing market liquidity, causing U.S. Treasury yields to fall, the dollar to weaken, and risk assets overall to rebound. Bitcoin, being the asset most sensitive to liquidity, naturally led the surge. But the most direct driver was the forced liquidation of a large number of short positions. Previously, market sentiment was very pessimistic, with many betting on further declines by shorting. However, the price surged violently, causing shorts to be continuously liquidated. The buying pressure from these liquidations further pushed prices higher, creating a short squeeze.
We can see that every time the price spikes, trading volume does not continue to expand, which is a typical low-volume rally relying on leveraged funds within the market competing with each other, without large-scale spot funds entering from outside to support it. Although institutional ETFs have seen inflows, these are mostly short-term funds doing swing trades, with no long-term sustained large-scale accumulation. This means the foundation of this rally is not solid. Once the shorts are fully cleared and new buying support is lacking, prices can easily fall back.
Many newcomers mistake sentiment for real buying demand. The whole network is shouting that the bull market is here, so they think prices will keep rising and rush to add leverage to go long. But the reality is that every time the price approaches above 81,000, there is heavy selling pressure, with profit-taking ready to be realized at any moment. Historically, every such short-squeeze-driven rally is followed by a wave of consolidation that shakes out retail investors chasing highs.
For ordinary investors, now is the time not to be swayed by the market's frenzy. Don't envy others making money. The risk-reward ratio of chasing highs is extremely low, and losses can come very quickly if the market reverses. Spot traders can keep their base positions but should not add more. Futures traders should try to stay flat and observe, avoiding short-term speculation on price swings. Investing is always counter to human nature; when others are going crazy, you need to stay calm. Preserving your principal is always more important than short-term windfalls.Whether the $BTC $ETH market trend can continue depends on tonight's key moment.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
PCE inflation data and Nvidia earnings report will be released back-to-back.
PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator, directly influencing rate cut expectations and determining the overall direction of risk assets. Nvidia is the sentiment barometer for the AI market; the crypto market is increasingly linked with US tech stocks, and its earnings guidance will directly affect overall risk appetite.
If PCE is hotter than expected, rate cut expectations cool down, likely suppressing the market; if the data is cooler, it will support the bulls.
For Nvidia, good earnings but weak guidance can still drag down the entire risk asset market. Don't just look at the surface revenue; focus on the post-earnings outlook for AI demand.
Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at critical points in their chart patterns. These two pieces of news can easily trigger large volatility.
Don't bet on long or short positions prematurely; wait for the data to be released and then act according to market signals. Leverage must be tightened tonight.
⚠️This is only a macro market observation and does not constitute investment advice News must be closely monitored
This is a fundamental element for survival in this market
#Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ $BTC Tonight is destined to be a turbulent night that will determine the trend of the overall market and the US stock market 🔥
At 20:30, first watch the US July PCE; this data is very likely to directly affect the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
If the PCE is lower than expected, expectations for rate cuts will heat up, easing pressure on the dollar and US bonds, giving BTC, ETH, and US stocks a chance to continue strengthening; if it meets expectations, the market may first consolidate and digest; if it is significantly higher than expected, be cautious of a risk asset pullback.
However, I lean more towards the data not being too bad, as the US Treasury has recently been actively stabilizing the US bond market, and the policy side still places considerable emphasis on liquidity.
More importantly, tonight also includes the US stock market opening and Nvidia's earnings report. These three events coinciding could cause major volatility for AI, the Nasdaq, and BTC, ETH. This earnings report is very important because Nvidia is basically the bellwether for the AI market now. If the earnings and guidance continue to exceed expectations, the AI sector could be reignited by capital, and SNDK, MU may also benefit.
So tonight, don't just focus on the PCE; what really matters is whether the inflation data and Nvidia's earnings report can together ignite market sentiment.Bitcoin has retraced from $BTC 81,000 to 79,000 USD and is consolidating, which is essentially a normal breath before the high leverage and profit-taking at the 83,000 USD 365-day moving average.
A 1.2% slight drop within 24 hours is far from a trend reversal; it is more about funds digesting the short-term deviation caused by last week's 22% surge.
The current capital structure shows an interesting game.
Institutions have been pouring real money into ETFs for 7 consecutive days, buying over 3 billion USD in a single month. Coupled with the US Treasury expanding bond repurchases to inject liquidity into the system, the macro liquidity overflow to gold and BTC is an inevitable on-chain result.
However, retail chips are loosening. The unrealized profit rate of retail has risen to a stage high of 20.5%, and BTC inflows to exchanges have increased, indicating early chips are eager to cash out.
The greed index has reached 81, MACD shows a high-level death cross, and the buying power chasing highs on the scene is waning. Technically, a decisive correction is needed to blow out the high-leverage longs and hand over chips to stronger institutions.
The 80,000 to 82,000 USD range is an extremely dense chip exchange zone, while 83,000 USD is the watershed. The mid-term bull market framework is supported by ETF funds and macro liquidity taps. After deeply squeezing out the chasing high leverage, the market can stand firm at 83,000 USD with a healthier structure.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $ZEC ZEC at $780 — ETF Launch, Sell the News
Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) went live Tuesday — ZEC dropped 7% to $780. Classic "buy rumor, sell news."
Why? Pre-ETF, ZEC surged sub-$600 → $880; OI doubled to $1.8B. Overcrowded longs triggered profit-taking.
Grayscale's 2.5% fee revenue reinvested into Zcash ecosystem.
NU7 vote underway (until Sept 14) — emission smoothing, block time changes.
Long-term ETF thesis intact, short-term digestion needed. $780 direction unclear. Wait. $ZEC ZEC fluctuates around $780, profit-taking after ETF launch
Zcash is currently trading around $780, after reaching an eight-year high of $880 a few days ago and then pulling back for consolidation. It dropped about 7.6% on Tuesday.
Pullback logic: The Grayscale Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) officially launched on NYSE Arca on Tuesday. The market "buys the rumor, sells the fact," with profit-taking following the positive news. In the previous week, ZEC rose over 70%, and the open interest in perpetual contracts nearly doubled to $1.8 billion, intensifying the long squeeze and accelerating the decline.
Fundamentals remain solid: The ETF management fee of 2.5% will be reinvested into the Zcash ecosystem development; the NU7 upgrade voting is underway, covering topics such as issuance smoothing and block time reduction.
Key levels: $780 is the recent consolidation pivot, with $880 as the short-term top and support seen in the $700-$730 range. After profit-taking, attention will focus on NU7 progress and subsequent ETF capital inflows. The Hong Kong Bitcoin Asia conference is about to open, and the old saying in the crypto circle "markets always drop during conferences" is circulating.
In past summits, sentiment was highly charged and public opinion was euphoric before the event. After the conference officially started, positive news was realized and funds fled, often resulting in a surge followed by a decline.
The historical pattern is right before us; this time might again be an event-driven trading window.
By playing the "markets always drop during conferences" logic, one can look for suitable positions to short.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Bernstein: Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027, lowers MSTR target price to $350
Wall Street investment bank Bernstein updated its research report, setting a BTC baseline target: reaching $150,000 by mid-2027, with potential to hit $300,000 by 2029. The bullish logic comes from currency depreciation trades, continued institutional ETF allocations, and the resonance of the four-year halving cycle.
Interestingly, although the long-term Bitcoin forecast was raised, the target price for Strategy (MSTR) was lowered from $450 to $350, while maintaining an outperform rating. The main reason for the downgrade is the dilution pressure caused by continuous stock issuance. Even though BTC is favored, the stock itself will see diluted earnings.
Personal view: bullish on the coin but lowering the stock price is the biggest highlight of this report. Institutions recognize Bitcoin's long-term narrative but are starting to rationally weigh the MSTR model. The company keeps issuing shares to buy BTC; while price appreciation of the coin brings huge gains, share dilution erodes shareholder equity, so the stock will not simply rise proportionally with BTC. Avoid the habitual thinking that "if BTC rises, MSTR must skyrocket."
Regarding the market, $150,000 is a mid-to-long-term optimistic baseline target and should not be used as a basis for short-term trading. The market is currently in an extremely greedy zone, so the risk of a pullback after a rally remains. Going forward, focus on two key points: the pace of Strategy's share issuance and the sustainability of spot ETF capital inflows.
Practical reminder: investment bank forecasts are for informational purposes only; the market has many variables, so do not place orders directly based on target prices. Tonight PCE sets inflation, Friday Walsh sets interest rates—two events determine BTC direction
$BTC fell back below 78000 after hitting 81237 yesterday for consolidation. After rising more than 23% in the past week, the market is waiting for two answers.
Tonight at 20:30, US July Core PCE. The market expects Core PCE year-on-year to remain steady at 3.3%, staying above the Fed's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Overall PCE month-on-month is expected to rebound to +0.1%, reversing June's brief deflation of -0.1%. If PCE exceeds expectations, the logic of sustained high interest rates will directly suppress BTC.
Friday at 22:00, Walsh's Jackson Hole debut. This is Walsh's first speech at the annual meeting since becoming Fed Chair in May. The market generally expects he will not give clear rate guidance, but against the backdrop of three dissenting votes for a rate hike at the July meeting, any hawkish remarks could trigger repricing.
Two events: one sets inflation expectations, the other sets policy direction. Whether the 80000 level holds depends on tonight and tomorrow night.Two main themes tonight: PCE determines interest rate expectations and valuation discount rates. $NVDA decides whether AI capital expenditure can continue to rise. On August 25, the US stock market rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 0.32%, the Nasdaq up 0.66%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up about 1.44%, $NVDA ended its previous consecutive decline and rebounded 2.19%, $AMD rose 4.91%, and storage and optical communications simultaneously repaired. The driving force behind this is not new fundamental benefits, but the fall in oil prices → easing inflation expectations → decline in US Treasury yields → tech stocks get breathing room, while funds begin to trade tonight's $NVDA earnings report in advance. Today is completely different: pre-market index futures are basically flat, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4.64%, the market has not chosen a direction but is waiting for two answers—whether PCE can reduce interest rate pressure on growth stocks, and whether $NVDA can continue to prove that AI capital expenditure has not peaked. 1. First, look at the market: today's real trading variable is not the index, but the "yield × tech stocks" combination. $QQQ, $SPY, $SMH should not be viewed separately today. Yesterday, semiconductors clearly outperformed the market, indicating that funds have begun to reposition for $NVDA earnings, but pre-market Nasdaq futures weakened again relative to the Dow, indicating that funds have not fully lifted defenses. If the 10-year US Treasury yield moves back to 4.7% or even higher, the valuation pressure on $QQQ/$SMH will quickly increase; if PCE is below expectations and the 10-year yield falls back below 4.6%,Jiang Zhuoer said ETH is the engine of this round; I only agree halfway. Many people get excited when they see Jiang Zhuoer's numbers: I have no objection to the data, but the word "engine" feels premature.
My view is a bit more complicated:
ETH is the "beneficiary with the highest marginal capital sensitivity" in this wave, not an independently igniting engine.
There are three reasons:
1. ETH's market cap is smaller than BTC's. With the same $700 million poured in, the price elasticity is naturally greater. This is math, not narrative;
2. This round of ETF inflows includes both BTC and ETH together, with a combined $2.6 billion in a single week hitting a 10-month high. BTC remains the main institutional entry point, while ETH is the "overflow allocation";
3. To truly make ETH the engine, we need to see continuous on-chain growth in RWA, stablecoin settlements, and tokenized government bonds, not just ETF buying—Jiang Zhuoer mentioned the CLARITY Act and US Treasury on-chain as a long-term logic, but that is still in expectations.
So my stance:
Short-term ETH/BTC strengthening is real, and ETH leading BTC mid-term is also possible, but the conclusion that "this bull market is driven by ETH" should at least wait until ETH spot ETFs have net inflows for 4 consecutive weeks and on-chain fees return to bull market levels before declining.
The current state is more like: BTC has broken the door open, and ETH is taking the opportunity to squeeze to the front for a photo. Does your portfolio have more than 50% ETH this round? #US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
I am Brother Ci. The US is expanding financial and trade sanctions on Iran, while Qatar and other countries are pushing to resume negotiations. Both sides are engaging on the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions escalation and diplomatic progress are happening simultaneously. Oil prices have not risen but instead fallen, as the market believes diplomacy is closer to yielding results than sanctions.
If navigation talks break through first, oil price risk premiums will continue to clear, inflation concerns will ease, and risk assets will benefit in the short term. If sanctions truly cut off Iran's oil and cross-border payment channels, energy inflation and dollar liquidity may be repriced simultaneously. BTC will rebalance between safe-haven demand and liquidity improvement. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Brother Ci has finished speaking, savor this. After Bitcoin climbed back above the $80,000 mark, market sentiment clearly heated up, and the saying "see $100,000 in September" began circulating everywhere. But looking calmly, this rally, climbing above $60,000, left little comfort zone for new entrants. The higher the price goes, the less cost-effective the chase actually becomes—this is probably a common psychological feeling among many experienced traders. This wave of upward momentum is solid, moving from the $60,000 range to around $80,000, with almost no significant pullback. Both the strength and duration of buying have exceeded many expectations. The sentiment heat can be glimpsed on social media, with bullish targets jumping from $80,000 to $100,000 or even higher, and both discussion density and optimism have returned to yearly highs. But it is precisely this consistent expectation that makes the market somewhat subtle—when everyone is focused on the same target, the bumps along the path are often overlooked. From the market structure perspective, Bitcoin's holding above 80,000 means it confirms the continuation of the medium-term trend, but short-term technical indicators have already entered overbought territory, and the price deviation from the moving average is widening. Historical experience repeatedly reminds us that after a sharp rise, it often takes time or space to digest profit-taking, and the probability of a direct V-shaped rally is not as high as sentiment suggests. More noteworthy is that Ethereum repeatedly tested near $2,500, and the effectiveness of this breakout will determine whether funds will rotate among mainstream coins going forward. On the macro level, market expectations for liquidity remain relatively loose, providing bottom support logic for risk assets. But this is also importantIn terms of derivatives structure, the long taker ratio in the past 24 hours was slightly above 51%. The total futures open interest remained at a low range just above 700,000 BTC, without the rapid leverage accumulation seen at the previous peak. However, order flow data shows active sell orders are rising, and the volume delta for multiple major coins has turned negative, indicating that both buying at highs and profit-taking are occurring simultaneously. $BTC #BTC #crypto There are two clear time points in the market this week: on Wednesday, the US July PCE inflation and personal spending data will be released, and on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech during his tenure at Jackson Hole. Stronger data may push up yields and suppress risk assets, while weaker data will reinforce easing expectations. This is the first substantial test for the current rebound. $BTC #BTC #加密According to CoinGlass data, over $450 million in short positions across the entire market were liquidated within 24 hours of Bitcoin breaking through $80,000, with approximately $335 million in Bitcoin shorts alone, and some statistics even higher. Short squeezes can create rapid price surges, but once leveraged positions are cleared, this forced buying disappears. Subsequent demand will need to be validated by spot and ETF support. $BTC #BTC #cryptoThe U.S. Treasury Department previously announced that starting from September 9, the single-operation cap for long-term Treasury liquidity support repos will be at least doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion. The market generally associates this round of increase with that news, believing it has lowered long-end yields and weakened the dollar. However, the long-term impact of repos on inflation expectations and the dollar remains uncertain, and it is necessary to be cautious about directly extrapolating a one-time policy into a trend. $BTC #BTC #加密The biggest crypto event of the week is set: Deribit has a total of 81,700 BTC options expiring simultaneously at 08:00 UTC on August 28, with a notional value as high as $6.44 billion. Bitcoin surged 22.9% in one week to around 78,970; this delivery will directly dominate the short-term market volatility rhythm. 1. Overview of core positions 1. Long-short position structure Call options: 44,639 | Put options: 37,061 PCR (put-call ratio) = 0.83, with call contracts in the majority. ⚠️Important reminder: A large number of call orders are not purely bullish; many are used for hedging and volatility arbitrage, so they should not be simply interpreted as a guaranteed bullish signal. 2. Two key concentrated strike prices for positions ✅$75,000: largest call position cluster, with a notional value of $236 million ✅$80,000: second most concentrated strike price, position size of $157 million Within a ±5% range of the current price, more than $500 million in options positions are involved, and market makers will significantly increase hedging trades before expiration. 2. Two main market movement logics brought by the delivery Scenario 1: Price oscillates sideways between $75,000 and $80,000 Market makers frequently buy and sell spot/futures to hedge exposure, causing the price to be "nailed" near the concentrated strike prices, with narrow fluctuations and slight volatility decline. Scenario 2: Rapid breakout above $80,000 or drop below $75,000 Passive follow-up liquidation by hedgers causes market volatility to be sharply amplified; both sharp rises and falls will be further intensified by leverage and hedging activities. 3. Volatility marketNew opportunities arise as the market settles: ZEC and HYPE
In 2026, ZEC and HYPE repeatedly hit new highs amid mainstream asset volatility. ZEC reached $888, and HYPE broke through $83. This reflects the market's shift from speculative narratives to fundamentals.
$ZEC's surge stems from the lifting of regulatory constraints. In January 2026, the SEC ended its investigation into the Zcash Foundation without enforcement, eliminating long-term regulatory risks. In August, Grayscale launched the first Zcash spot ETF, opening a compliant channel for institutions. Coupled with the upcoming NU7 upgrade vote and the return of privacy narratives, ZEC has risen over 1400% year-to-date.
$HYPE's rise is based on solid cash flow. Hyperliquid allocates about 97% of fees to repurchasing and burning HYPE, generating approximately $419 million in revenue in the first half of the year. Its on-chain perpetual contract market share rose to about 54.5%, and the platform expanded to commodities, RWA, and Pre-IPO assets. In August, Trump stated that the CFTC is advancing Hyperliquid's compliance entry into the U.S., opening up new possibilities.
Though their paths differ, both share the same destination: no longer relying on sentiment-driven speculation but building sustainable upward momentum through clear regulation, real revenue, and a closed-loop token economy. This is the fundamental reason for their counter-trend breakout amid liquidity contraction.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Gold has experienced wide and intense fluctuations at historical highs, but Citibank's latest research report poured cold water on the exuberant bulls. Citibank pointed out that the recent breakout in gold prices was mainly driven by strong speculative momentum funds in futures and other derivatives, while physical consumption and delivery demand did not keep pace. This divergence makes gold highly susceptible to macro event disturbances in the short term.
This highlights a reality that many retail investors tend to overlook: the trading nature of gold is undergoing profound transformation.
Traditionally, gold is recognized as a safe-haven asset, but with worsening fiscal deficits, US Treasury yield dynamics, and deep involvement of leveraged derivative funds, gold increasingly behaves like a macro high-beta asset highly sensitive to the US dollar trend, real interest rates, and sovereign credit risk. In the medium term, central banks' continued gold purchases and the consensus on de-dollarization remain solid ballast, but at the micro trading level, the overly crowded futures long positions could trigger a stampede-like profit-taking if expectations fail.
The market is currently holding its breath awaiting the directional signals from the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish bias, the rebound in real interest rates and the US dollar will directly cause a sharp valuation correction for highly leveraged gold bulls, and this volatility transmission will simultaneously affect hard assets like Bitcoin.
Treating speculative momentum as a safe-haven belief is often the start of losses. Before major macro decisions are announced, understanding the crowding in derivatives is far more important than blindly chasing highs.
Gold increasingly resembles a highly volatile macro asset. On the eve of the central bank symposium, will you choose to reduce leverage for defense or continue to add on dips? ETH fluctuates around 2500, institutions are buying, applications are running, what’s the outlook?
Recently looking at $ETH data, the market is quite conflicted.
US ETH ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, averaging nearly 180 million daily. Whale staking yields about 300 million annually, more than covering costs, with large funds treating it as a long-term asset allocation.
On-chain data is awkward: ETH daily active users 640,000, Solana 2.3 million, BNB Chain 4.4 million. DeFi experiences 3% volatility triggering 36 million in liquidations, with high leverage and thin liquidity. Mainnet usage is declining, activity is moving to L2.
Funds provide a floor, but applications are dragging. There is buying pressure near 2500, limiting sharp drops, but there’s no fuel to push prices up. A bull run depends on AI agents and RWA bringing new users; just hoarding coins isn’t enough.
ETH valuation logic is changing: previously based on fees, now staking yields are stable, making it more like an interest-bearing asset. If the market accepts this, the anchor shifts from network activity to discounted cash flow.
Risks: The hotter L2 gets, the fewer fees the mainnet captures, diluting ETH’s value. In the long term, accumulation and inactivity coexist, possibly leading to a stalemate.
Short term has a floor, long term depends on applications.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 A recent news item, I think many people have underestimated its importance.
Companies like Visa, Mastercard, Circle, Cloudflare, and others have started jointly setting AI Agent payment standards.
This means the industry discussion is no longer about:
Can AI make payments?
But rather:
How should AI make payments securely.
Combined with recent data, it becomes even more interesting.
Stablecoin payments initiated by AI Agents have reached a new high this year, but the amount per transaction remains very small, mostly micro-payments for APIs, computing power, data, and so on.
I think this actually indicates the industry is laying the foundation.
When the internet first started, it wasn’t Taobao or WeChat that came first.
It was protocols like TCP/IP and HTTP.
AI Agents are the same.
What will truly matter in the future is not just which Agent is smarter, but who can enable Agents to:
Make secure payments;
Automatically settle;
Collaborate across platforms.
Recently, when I observe projects of this kind, I pay more attention to real on-chain transactions rather than just looking at coin prices.
For example:
- Whether Stablecoin usage is growing;
- Whether on-chain payments are becoming more active;
- Whether capital flow is continuously entering.
I look at all this data together on Ave.ai.
Many trends first appear in the data before they become news. "$6.4 Billion Options Set to Expire Friday: $80K Level Moves Into the Money, Why Can't the $68K Max Pain Point Pull Spot Price?"
Bitcoin options with a notional value as high as $6.44 billion and 81,700 contracts are set to expire this Friday at 4 PM.
This scale accounts for nearly 20% of the total open interest across the network.
Spot price surged past the $80K mark, yet the largest pain point on the books remains stuck at $68,000, creating a $12,000 inverse gap between the two.
The $75K and $80K strike prices have been consecutively driven deep in the money, causing market makers holding sold Calls to face huge negative Gamma exposure, forcing them to continuously buy spot to hedge, directly breaking through the max pain point.
Meanwhile, the $500 million position clustered around $80K forms a strong bidirectional pinning effect. Once the Friday expiration bell rings, the hedged spot positions will be completely unlocked. $BTC #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Dear all, the real highlight is this Friday—the debut of Federal Reserve Chair Wash at Jackson Hole.
Why is the market so nervous?
Since Wash took office, he has completely abandoned "forward guidance." After the July meeting, nothing was clarified, directly causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to soar to 5.34%, a new high since 2007. Now with US debt exceeding 40 trillion and inflation above 2% for five consecutive years, the silence is turning into an expensive noise.
What exactly is the market waiting for?
Wall Street is not looking for hawkish or dovish statements but a clear "policy reaction function"—what data will trigger rate hikes, how to view the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range, and whether to stick to the 2% inflation target. Barclays expects Wash is unlikely to provide near-term guidance. If he still dodges the issue this time, long-term US Treasury sell-offs may intensify.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Last week, BTC rose over 30%, and gold broke 4600, reflecting a "currency depreciation trade." Rate cut expectations benefit risk assets, while rate hikes do the opposite. Currently, Polymarket shows a 55% chance of a rate hike this year, and CME shows a 45% chance of a rate hike in December.
Before Friday, PCE data will be released on Wednesday. Until these two events conclude, BTC will likely fluctuate around 80,000. The direction is positive, but don’t rush the pace; it’s better to wait for Wash to clarify before making moves. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Reports are circulating about a large BTC/ETH short by a trader nicknamed the “Trump insider,” but the claim that they “definitely know something” isn’t established.
Large wallet positions can be informative, but they don’t prove what happens next—the trader could be hedging, speculating, or simply wrong.Family! Tonight's major macro data is coming 📢 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index release❗ This is the Fed's most important inflation indicator, more important than CPI. Friends trading crypto or in storage must keep a close eye. Here's a detailed analysis of the market impact👇 💡What is Core PCE? Excludes volatile food and energy, reflecting the true inflation level in the US ▪️Previous value: 0.1% ▪️Expectation: 0.2% ▪️Officially revealed tonight! 🔥Three scenarios｜Impact on cryptocurrency 1️⃣ Data significantly higher than expected (>0.2%, especially above 0.3%)😱 Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, market prices in "high interest rates lasting longer," even retaining tightening possibility 👉Mostly bearish! USD strengthens, risk capital flees $BTC, $ETH likely to face pressure and plunge, risk of flash crash⚠️ Note: Slightly above 0.2% (e.g., 0.21%) does not necessarily cause extreme drops 2️⃣ Data meets expectations (=0.2%)😐 No new policy signals, bulls and bears contest 👉Market oscillates with no clear direction, better to wait and see 3️⃣ Data below expectations (<0.2%)📈 Inflation marginally cools, rate cut expectations rise 👉Liquidity expectations improve, bullish for crypto assets ⚠️Note: If the market has already priced in the good news, a "good news sell-off" may occur 💾Three scenarios｜Impact on storage $SNDK sector 1️⃣ Data significantly >0.2% 😰 High interest rates suppress growth stock valuations, storage's strong cyclical nature makes it prone to sell-off If the industry itselfBTC Market Update｜Consolidation and Rotation, Not a Trend Reversal
$BTC currently looks more like it's repositioning at a high level rather than directly entering a downtrend. 👀
After previously breaking through $81K, BTC pulled back to around $78.6K, entering a short-term consolidation phase; ETH also retraced from recent highs to around $2.5K. Latest market data shows BTC has still risen about 23% over the past week, while ETH's gains approach 29%, with capital still concentrated in mainstream assets.
ETF inflows are also an important support. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92B, marking one of the best weekly performances this year, indicating institutional demand is recovering.
On the macro front, the US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, a weakening dollar, and market concerns over currency depreciation continue to drive funds toward assets like BTC and gold. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a drop in oil prices and easing some inflationary pressures.
So currently, I tend to interpret this movement as:
Not a trend reversal, but an internal rotation of funds within the market. 🔄
BTC is holding steady at high levels, ETH remains strong, while some altcoins are diverging, indicating capital is flowing more selectively toward strong assets.
Next, the key focus is whether $81K–$82K can be effectively broken above, and whether the $78K area can hold. If BTC reclaims this critical resistance, the market may continue to expand to higher levels; otherwise,On-chain data has once again shifted attention back to the supply side of political memes. Addresses related to $TRUMP are quietly reducing their holdings, with about 2.7 million tokens remaining, which theoretically could turn into new selling pressure at any time. As a result, the price is repeatedly suppressed by short-term moving averages near $2.469, and every attempt to rebound triggers a wave of selling pressure from above. This trend is not surprising; it is more like a game of 🧐 patience and liquidity. From a market structure perspective, the risks of such events often do not directly manifest as a crash, but first infiltrate the market as supply-inflation and then gradually erode the overall risk appetite for meme coins. When institutions and early participants choose to reduce positions during the rebound, the slope of price recovery is noticeably flattened. In other words, selling pressure itself is not scary; what is scary is that it changes capital's pricing expectations for these assets. Notably, other tokens under the same narrative framework, such as $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR, have recently received support from new capital and successfully broke through the twelve-month consolidation bottom zone. However, $TRUMP was absent from this recovery round, as funds seem to be rearranging according to the storyline rather than simply chasing the overall popularity of the same sector. This divergence often better illustrates the shifting 🌊 direction of market preferences than the rise or fall of individual tokens. When highly volatile political memes begin to shake confidence, some funds naturally shift toward more solid narrativesNVIDIA Earnings Report Released! Clear Interpretation of SanDisk's Subsequent Trend
NVIDIA's latest Q2 earnings report exceeded expectations, confirming the high prosperity of AI computing power and directly setting the tone for the subsequent market of AI storage, also revealing the core reason behind SanDisk's recent continuous adjustment.
Many wonder: The AI market hasn't retreated, so why has SanDisk continued to weaken?
The essence is not a collapse in logic, but rather an early over-expectation at high levels plus risk aversion before the earnings report. Previously, SanDisk had a huge short-term gain, combined with a weak quarterly guidance, the market took profits early, resulting in a phase of correction, which is a typical emotional and valuation-driven sell-off, not a fundamental problem.
This NVIDIA earnings report is a key turning point: AI server orders and enterprise computing capital expenditure continue to grow strongly, completely dispelling market fears of "AI demand peaking."
It should be clear: high-end AI servers cannot do without high-speed storage. SanDisk, as a core AI storage target, is deeply tied to NVIDIA's computing power industry chain. The industry's rigid demand logic is completely solid. Weakness in consumer-grade storage cycles does not affect its AI incremental performance at all.
Trend Forecast
Short term: The negative news has landed, an oversold recovery rally begins, valuation at low levels has rebound elasticity.
Mid term: Farewell to broad market decline sentiment, relying on continuous realization of AI computing orders, entering a structurally independent market.
Summary: SanDisk's earlier phase was just a high-level reshuffle, not the end of the market. NVIDIA's strong growth confirmation supports the bottom, and a secondary recovery rally in AI storage is already expected.
#NVIDIAearnings #SanDisk #SNDK #USstockanalysis #AIstorage #chipmarketI strongly agree with Murphy's observation about BTC's "realized profit–price divergence." Interestingly, this resonates with a judgment I've repeatedly mentioned before: a fairly obvious bearish divergence has appeared on BTC's 4-hour chart.
One looks at price, the other at on-chain profit behavior, but essentially they observe the same thing—the price is still rising, but the marginal momentum driving the price higher is declining.
This does not mean an immediate drop, nor does it mean one should short now. What truly deserves caution is: if BTC continues to make new highs but realized profits, trading activity, and other momentum indicators fail to simultaneously reach new highs, this kind of "bullish divergence" may strengthen continuously. The most dangerous moments in the market are often not when the trend has ended, but when the trend still appears strong while the internal momentum has quietly started to fade.
So what I’m focusing on now is not whether BTC’s next candle will go up or down, but: after a new high, is there new incremental demand?
If not, then a "small problem" could slowly evolve into a "big problem."
For now, observe first; don’t rush to conclusions. Recent position data shows a noteworthy divergence: $ETH's large long positions continue to improve, indicating that some funds are gradually increasing their bullish exposure to ETH. In contrast, $BTC's long positions have cooled somewhat, more like some traders choosing to lock in profits and reduce leverage after a rapid rebound. But what truly deserves attention is BTC's current liquidation liquidation. BTC is currently fluctuating around $78.3K, with significant potential liquidity in the $75.9K–$77.1K area below; Meanwhile, short leverage is accumulating in the $81.7K–$83.4K range. This means the market is prone to a sharp liquidity sweep. If BTC falls below $77.1K, it could trigger long stop-losses and chain liquidations, with the price further testing liquidity below. But if spot buying takes over after a rapid dip, a classic structure may form: liquidity sweep → leveraged bulls forced to exit → spot funds absorbing selling pressure → rapid rebound. Therefore, a short-term decline itself does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. More notably, on August 25, the US spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $314.4M, with IBIT at about $284.4M; ETH ETFs also attracted about $179.8M during the same period, indicating institutional capital demand remains. 🔵 $ETH may become the focus of the next phase if BTC is short-termIf CPI is the face shown to the public, then PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) is the unshakable core for the Federal Reserve. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, this inflation data, known as the Fed's favorite child, will be released.
When the market is already nearly neurotic from the back-and-forth over rate hikes and cuts, this report is either a lifesaver or a death sentence.
The current market expectation is that the July core PCE year-over-year will hold steady at 3.3%. Don't be fooled by the unchanged number; the content inside is lively:
* This inflation isn't all about fried chicken and soda. The large-scale construction of data centers has driven up prices for computer software and hardware, and even the inflation basket has been lifted by this "Silicon Valley effect."
* Ironically, the recent strong surge in U.S. stocks has increased asset management fees for those fund managers, and this expenditure is also counted in the PCE. In other words, the hotter the stock market, the harder it is to suppress inflation.
Inflation is like losing weight: the first 10 pounds are easy to shed, but the last 2 pounds often require skin to be peeled off. Core PCE has been above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months, and the Fed under Warsh is under so much pressure it feels like banging its head against the wall.
Currently, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged in September is about 60%.
1. If the data > 3.3% (hotter than expected): the market will instantly explode. This means inflation is not only sticky but also elastic. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will directly break through the 100 mark, and tech stocks and cryptocurrencies should prepare for a Black Wednesday.This stage is actually very interesting. $BTC surges to around $80K → institutional funds buy BTC first → BTC rises about 23% → ETH starts to catch up significantly → high Beta assets like XRP and $HYPE begin to run → but the entire altcoin market is not yet in full frenzy. Currently, the Altcoin Season Index is only 38, indicating the market is far from the stage where "all altcoins fly together." This actually makes me feel that we are still in the early phase of capital dispersion, not the final frenzy stage. I will focus on observing three signals: First, whether ETH can continue to outperform BTC. BTC is responsible for attracting institutional funds; if ETH starts to consistently outperform, it means funds are moving from "digital gold" to "on-chain economy." BTC → ETH → $SOL /HYPE/XRP → DeFi/RWA → small and mid-cap altcoins → Meme If this chain really unfolds step by step, that will be the true bull market capital rotation. Second, whether ETF funds continue. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen obvious inflows again, with the largest IBIT even rising for 7 consecutive trading days. This is very important. Previously, the biggest characteristic of the crypto market was: Retail sentiment → leverage → pump → liquidation → crash Now there is an additional path: Traditional funds → ETF → spot → BTC/ETH → [Jiang Zhuoer: The probability of Bitcoin falling back below $67,000 is very low, ETH remains the "engine" of this bull market]
On August 26, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, posted that on the first U.S. stock trading day after the weekend surge, ETF fund flows became a key observation indicator. Data shows a net inflow of $314 million into Bitcoin ETFs and a net inflow of $180 million into Ethereum ETFs.
U.S. stock funds are chasing the rally, which means this round of gains is further confirmed by capital, and the probability of Bitcoin falling back below the $67,000 starting point is very low. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF inflows amount to 57.2% of Bitcoin's, significantly higher than ETH/BTC's total market cap ratio of 18.8%. Based on this, he believes ETH will continue to act as the "engine" of this bull market.
With Trump significantly embracing blockchain and the advancement of the CLARITY Act, financial assets such as the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds may further move on-chain, become tokenized, and smart contract-enabled in the future. He believes this will drive more traditional financial professionals to understand and invest in the related blockchain ecosystem $BTC $ETH #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
After breaking through $4600, international gold prices consolidated at a high level between $4630 and $4650. Citibank raised its short-term target price to $4800 and its long-term target to $5000. Meanwhile, gold ETFs increased holdings by over 28 tons in a single week, and Hong Kong's net gold exports to mainland China in July rose to 56.193 tons, both indicating that institutional and mainland physical hedging demand remains strong.
Shift in capital allocation
Institutional accumulation at high levels is not only a bet on interest rate cuts or geopolitical risks but also a long-term hedge against the expansion of U.S. debt and the decline in dollar credit.
Physical buying takes over
Although high gold prices suppress traditional gold jewelry consumption, demand for investment gold bars and currency hedging has increased, providing a solid foundation for high gold prices.
Forecast of subsequent trends
The market has largely priced in some interest rate cut expectations, with short-term risks of profit-taking and high-level consolidation.
High-probability trend
After confirming a pullback in the $4500–$4600 range, the market will continue to oscillate and build momentum amid the de-dollarization trend, aiming to surge to $4800 within the year.
Low-probability trend
If geopolitical tensions ease sharply or interest rate cut expectations are significantly disappointed, profit-taking could trigger a phase of deep correction.
Operational advice
As a long-term hedge, the logic of accumulating in batches during pullbacks remains unchanged. However, short-term chasing of highs has a low risk-reward ratio; avoid blindly leveraging at high levels.
DYOR $XAU $XAUT Coinbase recently announced the successful issuance of the first mortgage involving Bitcoin as part of the collateral structure loan with Fannie Mae in the United States. Coinbase is responsible for digital asset custody and collateral infrastructure. Borrowers can use BTC or USDC held in their Coinbase accounts as collateral to finance their home down payment without having to sell their digital assets first.
This is a two-layer loan structure. The first layer is a conventional residential mortgage that meets Fannie Mae standards. The second layer is a loan secured by BTC or USDC, used to fund part of the down payment. In other words, the risk of crypto assets is placed in the second-lien loan and custody structure, rather than directly entering Fannie Mae's core credit balance sheet.
The significance of this development lies not in the size of the first loan itself, but in advancing the long-term narrative about whether crypto assets can enter the traditional financial collateral system into an actionable policy and product prototype. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
I'm the mid-term intelligence guy, and tonight at 20:30 this PCE is the last touchstone before Jackson Hole.
The market expects overall month-on-month 0.1%, year-on-year 3.6%, core month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year stuck at 3.3%—in other words, "month-on-month turning positive, year-on-year slowly declining," with June's -0.1% month-on-month treated as a one-off noise.
If it really falls within this range, the probability of a rate hike in September won't explode, but it won't die out either. CME currently bets 60% on no move in September and 40% on a hike; as long as the data doesn't blow up, this tug-of-war will continue.
The key is the day after tomorrow (28th at 22:00) when Waller makes his Jackson Hole debut. Upon taking office, he cut forward guidance and canceled the dot plot; his style is "less commitment, more framework."
I bet he won't give a clear path—at most, he'll reiterate that the door remains wide open until inflation returns to 2%, and mention his reforms to reduce meeting frequency and weaken guidance, kicking the ball back to the data.
So if tonight's PCE meets expectations, it gives Waller a step to "blur the path"; if core month-on-month jumps above 0.25%, Waller will be forced to say a few more hawkish words, and long bonds will move first.
Don't expect him to explicitly say whether September will see a hike. The mid-term guy only watches one thing: whether he's willing to replace "data dependence" with "conditional dependence." If he is, the path becomes half clear; if not, the market will keep guessing under 3.3% inflation.
$BTC
$ETH $BTC This round of market surge may not be a bull market restart, but rather a short-term resonance driven by loose liquidity and concentrated short squeeze.
There are two core triggers for this rebound. The first is Trump's latest public statement. Recently, he met with crypto industry executives at the White House, openly urging Congress to pass clear legislation favorable to the industry, even expressing consideration of continuing to increase Bitcoin holdings. This speech directly reversed market expectations, completely bidding farewell to the previous strong regulatory suppression atmosphere, and quickly dissipated panic among investors. Coupled with falling US Treasury yields and global liquidity easing, it laid a solid foundation for this rally.
But the key truth is that this surge is not driven by new money buying the dip, but by shorts being forced to cover. After a long period of consolidation, the market accumulated a massive amount of short positions.
After a slight market recovery, shorts were successively forced to close positions and buy back, combined with institutional ETF inflows, which rapidly propelled the market upward. Simply put: half of the rise is due to liquidity benefits, and the other half is pushed by the short squeeze.
This is also why retail investors find it hardest to profit in a surge. A true trending market rises slowly with repeated shakeouts; this kind of short squeeze rebound is characterized by rapid spikes, emotional exhaustion, and extreme volatility.
Now the entire network is unanimously calling a bull market, with sentiment fully charged. The eternal rule in trading circles: divergence creates trends, consensus signals turning points, and when everyone is euphoric, short-term risks often lurk.
Therefore, at this point, there is no need to blindly chase the bull or be overly bearish. Only mature trading cognition that understands cycles and capital logic can avoid being harvested by market sentiment. $ETH $OKB #