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This afternoon, I checked the public address that had been flagged as 'Maji Big Brother' by several on-chain platforms. He was still long ETH, and had returned to 25x leverage. As of 16:32 on August 7, 2026, this account held 5,425 ETH long positions, with a position value of approximately $10.33 million. The average opening price was $1,884.08, with a marked price of about $1,904.8 at the time, and a book unrealized profit of about $112,400. Floating Profit did not make this account safe. Account equity is about $352,700, withdrawal balance shows 0, and the estimated good draw value is around $1,877.34. ETH fell from $1904.8 to just 1.44%. This is already within the range of a normal intraday fluctuation. $110,000 unrealized gain, can't withstand a single turnback. 5,425 ETH, with every 1% fluctuation, position profit and loss change by about $103,000. Maji Big Brother's current unrealized profit of $112,400 is roughly the buffer from ETH's 1% increase. If the market suddenly reverses, this little money will quickly disappear. On-chain snapshots also show that his account profit and loss for the day were about minus $48,300, and over the past month it was about $987,000. I pulled out the transactions from the past seven days and recounted them again. This address had 324 aggregated transactions, buying about 5,930 ETH and selling about 4,805 ETH, with a total loss of about $260,700 and a fee of about $6,021. Buying is more than selling$GOOGL has started borrowing money to invest in AI, and this arms race really seems to be getting intense.
$25 billion is not just about buying a few servers or adding some graphics cards. Now, the AI competition is no longer about who releases models faster, but about who can first build up the infrastructure like data centers, computing power, electricity, and networks.
Of course, Google is not short on cash, so this bond issuance itself doesn't mean they "lack money."
I actually think this is a signal:
The speed at which AI burns money has become so fast that even Google feels there's no need to pay all cash out of pocket.
Of course, borrowing money itself is not a bad thing.
If this money eventually turns into more cloud revenue, higher advertising efficiency, and stronger Gemini commercialization, then this $25 billion is leverage.
But if a few years from now we find that data centers are increasing, chips are being bought more aggressively, yet AI revenue hasn't kept up...
Then it's not an AI revolution.
It's Alphabet helping the entire semiconductor industry consume in advance. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 A popular fantasy has been circulating in the crypto world, with many people hoping that the mainland will eventually allow compliant Bitcoin trading. Especially after seeing the US Bitcoin ETF launch and Hong Kong opening virtual currency licenses, many people started imagining that the mainland would soon loosen restrictions, even treating "policy relaxation" as a major logic for going long on BTC. Based on the latest regulatory documents and the current environment, there is basically no possibility of fully opening the domestic trading market in the short or medium term. Most online rumors about "opening immediately" are just marketing rumors. The domestic regulatory stance is not temporary but has been consistent for many years. In February 2026, eight departments updated documents once again clarified that virtual currencies like Bitcoin do not have legal tender status. All domestic fiat currency exchanges, matchmaking transactions, and intermediary services are all illegal financial activities, and overseas exchanges providing services to ordinary people in China are also violations. Many people argue about Hong Kong licenses, saying that Hong Kong's pilot and mainland policies are completely different systems. Hong Kong's opening up doesn't mean mainland policies will shift accordingly, so this must be clearly distinguished. Why do we choose strict regulation instead of licensing and opening up like some overseas countries? There are very practical constraints behind the scenes. Bitcoin's inherent anonymity and cross-border transfer characteristics make it difficult to achieve complete anti-money laundering and fund traceability. It is easily used for money laundering and cross-border asset transfers, directly impacting our foreign exchange management and monetary sovereignty. Overseas countries opening up their crypto markets is not entirely laissez-faire; it is about building a complete set of licenses, taxation, and strong KYC systems. This regulatory framework is currently the same as in ChinaDo you have to pay taxes on trading crypto now?
Playing with crypto is labeled as disrupting public order and good customs, equivalent to keeping a mistress or being a homewrecker;
Bitcoin is not currency, and nine ministries have explicitly banned it.
But sorry, no matter what was said before. If you make money trading crypto in the future, you still have to declare it according to tax law.
But I was a step too late; after rounds of policy crackdowns, I've already lost everything 😂🚨 Breaking: Russia takes the lead and officially establishes a cryptocurrency regulatory framework. 🇷🇺
Putin has officially signed Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory law, marking an important step forward for the development of digital assets.
Key points:
✅ Ordinary investors can purchase cryptocurrencies through licensed institutions (up to about $3,700 per year)
✅ No investment limit for qualified investors
✅ Crypto trading platforms must obtain licenses and comply with capital and regulatory oversight
✅ Use of cryptocurrencies for payments remains banned within Russia, but cross-border settlements are allowed
✅ Main provisions will take effect on September 1, 2026
My view:
This does not mean Russia is fully embracing Crypto.
The real change is that Russia is starting to treat cryptocurrencies as "assets" rather than "currency."
What’s most noteworthy is not the investment limits, but the last point — allowing cryptocurrencies for cross-border settlements.
As global geopolitical risks rise and the dollar settlement system faces more restrictions, more countries are exploring new international settlement methods.
Cryptocurrencies, especially $BTC, are gradually evolving from pure investment targets into tools for global value transfer and cross-border settlements.
Even more intriguing:
Russia has completed legislation, while the U.S. "CLARITY Act" is still awaiting progress in the Senate.
The regulatory race may just be beginning.
In the future, if more countries establish clear and compliant digital asset frameworks, the valuation logic of Crypto could gradually shift —
from "high-risk speculative assets" to part of the "global financial infrastructure."
📌 My judgment:
In the short term, this law may have limited direct impact on market prices.
But in the long term, it sends a more important signal — countries are gradually integrating crypto assets into the formal financial system.
And those likely to benefit first may not be altcoins, but core assets like $BTC.
⚠️ The above represents personal market views only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please DYOR and manage your risks carefully.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Russia #Regulation #DailyOrbit
🚨 Breaking: Russia takes the lead and officially establishes a cryptocurrency regulatory framework. 🇷🇺
Putin has officially signed Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory law, marking an important step forward for the development of digital assets.
Key points:
✅ Ordinary investors can purchase cryptocurrencies through licensed institutions (up to about $3,700 per year)
✅ No investment limit for qualified investors
✅ Crypto trading platforms must obtain licenses and comply with capital and regulatory oversight
✅ Use of cryptocurrencies for payments remains banned within Russia, but cross-border settlements are allowed
✅ Main provisions will take effect on September 1, 2026
My view:
This does not mean Russia is fully embracing Crypto.
The real change is that Russia is starting to treat cryptocurrencies as "assets" rather than "currency."
What’s most noteworthy is not the investment limits, but the last point — allowing cryptocurrencies for cross-border settlements.
As global geopolitical risks rise and the dollar settlement system faces more restrictions, more countries are exploring new international settlement methods.
Cryptocurrencies, especially $BTC, are gradually evolving from pure investment targets into tools for global value transfer and cross-border settlements.
Even more intriguing:
Russia has completed legislation, while the U.S. "CLARITY Act" is still awaiting progress in the Senate.
The regulatory race may just be beginning.
In the future, if more countries establish clear and compliant digital asset frameworks, the valuation logic of Crypto could gradually shift —
from "high-risk speculative assets" to part of the "global financial infrastructure."
📌 My judgment:
In the short term, this law may have limited direct impact on market prices.
But in the long term, it sends a more important signal — countries are gradually integrating crypto assets into the formal financial system.
And those likely to benefit first may not be altcoins, but core assets like $BTC.
⚠️ The above represents personal market views only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please DYOR and manage your risks carefully.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Russia #Regulation #DailyOrbit #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
The most interesting part of Circle's Q2 earnings report is not so much how much revenue increased, but how the growth rate of USDC and Circle's upcoming bet on Arc are starting to connect.
First, let's look at USDC. By the end of Q2, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19%, and the total on-chain transaction volume for the quarter reached $14.8 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 151%.
These two numbers together are quite interesting. Circulation grew by 19%, but transaction volume grew by 151%, indicating that USDC is not just accumulating idle funds in pools, but its usage frequency is significantly increasing. As payment, trading, cross-border settlement, and institutional fund management scenarios continue migrating on-chain, the same scale of USDC can support increasingly larger capital flows.
This change is also reflected in Circle's own revenue. Q2 total revenue and reserve income reached $701 million, a year-over-year increase of 7%, with reserve income accounting for $668 million. Although the yield on reserve assets dropped by 66 basis points year-over-year, the average USDC circulation increased by 25%, offsetting some of the impact caused by the interest rate decline.
Simply put, as long as USDC continues to expand, Circle can still earn considerable income from its large reserve assets.
However, Circle clearly does not want to rely solely on this model. While a larger stablecoin scale does mean more reserve income, it is still affected by interest rate cycles; when rates fall, the income generated by the same $10 billion reserve naturally decreases. Therefore, Circle is continuously expanding its payment network and institutional services, and pushing Arc to the forefront, essentially building more infrastructure around USDC that can generate long-term usage demand.
Currently, over 100 ecosystems and institutions are participating in building Arc, with the official plan to launch the public mainnet on September 16. The initial validator lineup is heavyweight, including institutions like BlackRock, DTCC, Mastercard, Visa, Standard Chartered, ICE, Galaxy, and MoneyGram. BlackRock also plans to deploy the BUIDL fund on Arc, while DTCC plans to support tokenization of custodial assets on Arc.
If these initiatives truly take off, Arc's most important role might be to add an institutional-grade financial network layer to USDC, which is already supported by many public blockchains.
Payments are one direction. The Circle Payments Network currently has 175 financial institutions joined, with an annualized transaction volume of $14.7 billion over the past 30 days at the end of Q2, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 76%. BNY already supports direct minting and redemption of USDC on its digital asset custody platform, and Standard Chartered has opened integrated conversion between fiat and USDC.
Asset tokenization is another direction. If funds, securities, collateral, and other RWAs gradually move onto Arc, trading, settlement, and fund management among these assets could naturally generate USDC demand. USDC would then not just be a dollar substitute used for exchanging coins on exchanges, but would participate more in the settlement of financial assets themselves.
There is also a data point that is easy to overlook. Circle's Agent Stack, launched this year, already has over 900 paid services, and 99.3% of the x402 proxy payments currently use USDC for settlement. If AI Agents eventually form a market where machines automatically purchase data, computing power, and services, stablecoins might be more suitable than traditional bank cards for such high-frequency, small-amount, around-the-clock automatic payments.
Therefore, when looking at USDC's next phase of growth, we can no longer just focus on the total stablecoin market cap. The $73.3 billion circulation is certainly important, but the $14.8 trillion quarterly on-chain transaction volume, 175 financial institutions in CPN, and over 100 Arc builders might better indicate where Circle is heading.
USDC's biggest advantages used to be compliance and liquidity; now Circle aims to cluster payment, RWA, institutional settlement, and AI payment demands around USDC.
Whether Arc will succeed still depends on real data after the mainnet launch. But if these scenarios truly start to scale, the driving force for USDC's next growth phase might not just be more funds entering the crypto market during a bull run, but the increasing need for dollars to settle transactions on-chain itself."The critical showdown for the 8/7 Nonfarm Payrolls is tonight"
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released, marking a crucial showdown for the Nonfarm report.
What is the likely outcome of this data tonight?
Will it be positive or will it suppress btc, eth?
I'll be straightforward with my judgment: it will be positive, and it must be positive.
Why am I so certain?
Let's first review the fundamentals. Currently, U.S. employment is basically supported entirely by the service sector.
Remember the small Nonfarm report released on Wednesday? The new jobs added were only 44,000. What level is this?
In June, the service sector added 96,000 jobs, so this is basically a 50% cut. Compared to last year, the same period added 74,000 jobs, so the growth has also dropped by 40%.
What's more interesting is that out of these 44,000 new jobs, 36,000 came from the education and healthcare sectors. Many other service industries show weak hiring intentions, indicating a direct cooling in service sector activity.
So where do you think tonight's big Nonfarm data can shine?
Another factor is that last month's employment data included a large number of temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Now that the event ended in July, these short-term jobs will naturally exit, which will somewhat drag down the overall employment data, causing some weakness. This is the reality.
Having covered the fundamentals, let's talk about the political logic.
In November this year, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, and the date is approaching. From Trump's perspective, he definitely wants to deliver a solid economic report card to secure voter support.
If the stock market and residents' income perform weakly, that would be a major negative for the election.
Trump has publicly stated that he hopes to see interest rate cuts implemented.
In the previous election, Powell's rate cuts helped Trump's opponent, and Trump has held a grudge ever since.
So you can see that the issue of rate cuts carries significant weight in his mind.
Let's take a broader view. The great power competition between us and the U.S. is intensifying. The technology sector is a critical high ground that must be won; whoever loses it loses the nation's fortune for the next century. It's that serious.
Currently, the U.S. lead in AI large models has narrowed significantly; the gap between us is very small. If they score 100 points, we have 98. Isn't that scary?
You could say that if they relax even a little, they could be caught up to.
To stabilize and grow the AI industry to compete with us, a low-interest financing environment is essential. The U.S. stock market needs to be supported.
Under this environment, the Federal Reserve's path of raising rates is simply not feasible; rate cuts are needed.
Additionally, Trump has been pushing for manufacturing to return to the U.S., calling on major companies from South Korea, Japan, and others, like TSMC and SK Hynix, to invest in the U.S. on the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars. Companies cannot pay that much cash upfront.
Most of that investment requires loan financing. If market financing costs remain high, companies' willingness to build factories and invest will be greatly reduced. The plan for manufacturing reshoring would basically be impossible.
To attract foreign investment to land, lowering interest rates is a very practical demand, requiring rate cuts.
Plus, with $40 trillion in national debt, raising rates would make interest payments unaffordable, so rate cuts are also needed.
If the goal is to release expectations of rate cuts at the September FOMC meeting and give the market reassurance, the prerequisite is straightforward: employment data must provide support.
Some might say, "Even if Trump wants rate cuts, if the data doesn't support it and improves significantly, then his efforts are in vain. What can he do?"
I'll tell you, Trump really has ways. Note that the head of the Labor Statistics Bureau, who controls the Nonfarm data statistics, was forcibly replaced by Trump with his own appointee last August; the previous head was directly fired.
If the data naturally supports rate cuts, that's best. If not, Trump has some means to make the data support it. Understand?
Combining all these layers of logic, whether employment weakens or strengthens, given the current fundamentals, a weaker employment environment is highly probable. The chance of the Nonfarm employment data weakening is very high—it's almost certain.
From the perspective of btc, eth, how should we approach tonight?
A reminder: the market has already priced in this positive expectation in advance; btc, eth have been pulled back every time they dip.
If tonight's data indeed turns out to be bullish for btc, eth, when the market rallies, don't get caught up in the heat and chase the price.
Historically, such expectation-fulfillment rallies are common: good news triggers a surge, followed by a quick pullback. After confirming support on the pullback, a new upward wave begins. Chasing highs can easily lead to short-term traps.
But looking at the technicals over a longer timeframe, even if there is a pullback after the surge, the overall upward trend is not broken.
Of course, the market won't go straight up; oscillations and fluctuations are normal. You must control the rhythm well.
In summary, tonight the market overall expects a weaker Nonfarm report.
The trading strategy for btc, eth is clear: don't chase the rally; patiently wait for a pullback, then look for an opportunity to enter. This approach is much safer.
After the data is released, I will provide an immediate interpretation for everyone. Please follow me so you don't get lost. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ # Satoshi Predicted Bitcoin Could Still Operate Even If a Country Is Isolated
Satoshi Nakamoto apparently predicted a scenario where a country is isolated from the global Bitcoin network as early as 2010.
According to him, Bitcoin can still function as long as the local network within that area remains interconnected.
Satoshi explained that a more likely condition is not the world splitting into two large networks. Instead, only one country or region is disconnected from the global network, becoming a minority chain with slower block formation.
"Bitcoin wallets can detect when the flow of received blocks is far below normal conditions, so users know the network is separated from the world. However, valid transactions can still be sent to the main chain once the connection is restored," Satoshi wrote in the Bitcoin forum in 2010.
He also emphasized that there is no time limit to reconnect a network that was once isolated. As long as transactions do not involve double-spending results or coins mined on the minority chain, those transactions can still be included in the main blockchain.
The archive of that discussion resurfaced after being shared by the Documenting Bitcoin account. This view shows that from the beginning, Bitcoin was designed to remain resilient against network partitioning, including when a country temporarily loses access to the global Bitcoin network.$SNDK Was yesterday's rebound just an emotional bounce after an oversell, or is SanDisk really about to return to new highs??
After the U.S. stock market opened yesterday, the storage sector saw a decent rally. From Fan Ge's perspective, this was a market sentiment rebound after an oversell, coupled with tonight's non-farm payroll data release, many large funds are still on the sidelines watching.
From the current market situation, after a rally, the three storage companies quickly fell back and entered a sideways consolidation phase. Hynix $SKHY even returned to pre-market prices, Micron $MU's decline was not large but it is still oscillating repeatedly at the support level. On-chain funds continue to flow out, and there is no sign of stabilization on the market.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is the most important data after the Federal Reserve meeting, directly related to September's interest rate expectations, and it will also cause significant volatility in the crypto market, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds.
Fan Ge remains bearish on the storage sector in the long term. Brothers, don't mistake the oversold rebound for a new major upward wave signal. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 🌕 $XAUT 1H Market Brief | Bullish Rally Approaches Key Resistance as Momentum Remains Strong
Price trades around 4,270.6 USDT after extending a strong intraday rally from the 4,215.0 structural low, with buyers pushing the market into the 4,280.3 session high before encountering moderate profit-taking. The breakout has shifted short-term sentiment decisively bullish, establishing a higher trading range and confirming continued strength on the 1-hour timeframe.
Trend remains firmly constructive as price continues to trade above MA7, EMA7, MA14, EMA14, MA28, and EMA28. The moving averages remain positively aligned, confirming sustained upside momentum, while the 4,255–4,258 region now serves as the primary dynamic support that buyers must defend to preserve the current trend.
Key Levels
→ Resistance: 4,280.3
→ Extension Zone: 4,300 – 4,330
→ Support: 4,258.2 (EMA7 dynamic support)
→ Base: 4,255–4,258 (MA7 / EMA7 support cluster) | 4,241–4,248 (MA14 / EMA14 support zone) | 4,215.0 (major structural demand)
Structure Insight
Bullish continuation structure remains intact as price has produced consecutive impulsive candles while reclaiming the entire moving average cluster. Buyers remain in control despite the latest rejection near 4,280.3, with the current candle showing only limited selling pressure following the recent expansion.
The market continues to trade comfortably above all key moving averages, reflecting strong short-term momentum. However, the increasing distance between price and the moving average cluster suggests the rally is becoming extended, raising the likelihood of a healthy consolidation or shallow pullback before another leg higher.
Volume expanded alongside the breakout, validating the strength of the move rather than signaling a low-liquidity spike. As long as buying participation remains supportive, the broader bullish structure remains favorable.
What to Watch
→ Break above 4,280.3 → continuation toward 4,300–4,330
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound $GRVT is currently in a phase of capital competition characterized by low circulation and high turnover, with ongoing selling pressure expected after subsequent unlocks. The total issuance on the market is 1 billion tokens, but only 114.3 million are in circulation, while the daily trading volume of 174 million tokens has already surpassed the total spot circulation. In a liquidity structure highly dependent on turnover, even a slight slowdown in spot buying funds can easily cause a gap in support. If short-term funds forcibly push the price up and maintain a 24-hour trading volume above 50 million USDT, the downside scenario will temporarily be invalid.
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？The latest earnings season has delivered a clear message for the storage sector: even exceptional results aren't always enough to lift stock prices.
Strong earnings may grab headlines, but forward guidance is what ultimately drives valuations.
SanDisk posted a remarkable Q4, with revenue reaching $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year and well above the $8.39 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS came in at $39.25, while gross margin climbed to a record 84.6%. Western Digital also exceeded expectations, reporting $3.75 billion in revenue, a 44% increase from a year earlier. Despite these impressive results, SanDisk fell 7% after hours and Western Digital dropped 11%.
The market's reaction came down to one factor: forward guidance. SanDisk forecast next-quarter revenue of $10.3–10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below the $11.15 billion analysts had anticipated. Western Digital faced a similar response, as its outlook failed to deliver the upside investors were hoping for. Reflecting the more cautious sentiment, Citigroup reduced its price target for SanDisk from $2,500 to $2,100. In today's market, simply beating expectations isn't enough—companies are expected to exceed increasingly optimistic forecasts.
The weakness quickly spread across the broader memory and storage industry. Shares of Kioxia and SK Hynix fell by more than 10%, while Samsung Electronics declined over 6%. South Korea's KOSPI also came under pressure as investors reassessed growth expectations for memory chips. Analysts noted that SanDisk's softer-than-expected outlook dampened confidence across the storage sector, triggering a broader semiconductor sell-off.
The takeaway is straightforward: in a market where expectations are already sky-high, future guidance carries more weight than outstanding historical results. Earnings may open the door, but expectations for the next quarter determine how the market values the business.
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#Alphabet25BBond $MU has a comprehensive business with HBM support, showing strong absorption during fluctuations, making it more suitable for mid-term positioning; $SNDK and $SKHYNIX have greater elasticity, respectively playing on NAND and HBM dividends, but face severe volatility and cyclical risks from capacity expansion.
All three belong to the strong cyclical memory sector, having experienced significant gains earlier, so they are not suitable for chasing at high levels. Caution is needed against pullback pressure caused by declining AI demand and overcapacity.
Betting on high HBM prosperity and able to withstand overseas market risks: $SKHYNIX.
In the short-term market, $SNDK has stronger upward explosive power, but after negative earnings reports, it experiences huge retracements with extremely violent volatility, soaring and plummeting elastically, making it more suitable for swing trading rather than long-term holding.
Choose SanDisk for explosive elasticity but be prepared for big ups and downs;
$MU has HBM business as a bottom support, often showing deep V-shaped absorption during pullbacks, with relatively steadier trends and smaller fluctuations. Micron holds a more complete HBM product line, stronger against cycles, suitable for mid-to-long term;
For a steadier trend, prioritize Micron. Both are strong cyclical stocks and carry pullback risks. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Latest news, another batch of options expired today. Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted a set of data: 32,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of only 0.26, the maximum pain point at $64,000, and a notional value of $2.06 billion. On the ETH side, 177,000 options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.77, maximum pain point at $1,900, and a notional value of $340 million.
Bitcoin has been the same this week, hovering around $64,000, oscillating back and forth for more than two months. Above $65,000 is the chip accumulation area from the rally at the beginning of the year, with considerable resistance. Currently, the global market's hotspot is not in crypto, speculative funds are not flowing here, and the direction is most likely still downward.
From the options data, 9% of positions expire this week, which is a significant proportion, and most are out-of-the-money call options accumulating, causing the Gamma exposure distribution to be quite scattered. Put positions are very few, and the Gamma on the downside is relatively concentrated. Bitcoin's put-call ratio has been stuck at an extremely low level of 0.26, indicating that almost no one dares to short; everyone is betting on a rise. But the more this is the case, once the direction is chosen wrong, the stampede will be even more severe. $ETH $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Liquidity further weakened on Friday's market. After testing the support near 64,100 in the morning, the coin price slightly rebounded to around 64,300 and entered a narrow sideways consolidation. This kind of market really makes one feel a bit helpless. I have been reminding everyone to narrow expectations recently and participate in short-term or even ultra-short-term trades. However, judging from today's overall market performance, there was not even a short-term opportunity given in the morning. As for the current market, the four-hour upward trend structure remains stable, and the short-term strategy should still focus on buying the dip.
Long BTC near 64,200, watch around 65,000. Long ETH near 1,890, watch around 1,930. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 🔄 In the previous round, I said "low volume grinding with no turnover," but in this hour, volume suddenly surged +43.4%—yet BTC is stuck at $64,480, moving only -0.63% in 24h. Volume exploded but price didn’t move; this pattern is called "volume-price divergence." In plain terms: someone is secretly and frantically rotating positions—not accumulating, but repositioning or distributing.
Summary: funding +0.0045% remains neutral, OI frozen at 105,000 BTC with no change. No short squeeze or panic selling, but the sudden volume surge indicates intense battle between bulls and bears at this price level. It’s not that no one is trading; someone is just switching seats.
Looking at capital flow details: breadth flipped from 7 up 8 down to 8 up 7 down, slightly positive. But OKX’s 24h leader $BICO soared +52.28%, with a stealthy +5.44% gain in one hour; meanwhile, $HFT dropped -20.06% in one hour, wiping out early gains. Money is moving aggressively, not entering the market.
What this means for BTC/ETH/altcoins: volume surge without price rise = peak divergence. A real breakout requires the "three essentials": volume surge + breaking key levels + sustained breadth turning positive. So far, only the first condition is met; the other two are absent. Independent pulses like BICO in altcoins represent smart money rotating, not a signal for the overall market to take off.
Reusable framework (three questions for volume surge without price rise): ① Volume surges but price doesn’t move = divergence, not consensus; don’t get hyped; ② Determine if it’s accumulation or distribution—distribution often pairs with volume surge without price rise + scattered breadth + isolated coin pulses; ③ Wait for this hourly candle to close before judging, as single-hour volume is the easiest to mislead.
Self-mock: BICO long +16.28% woke me up laughing, ADA long stuck at 0.0%, break-even—not losing or gaining—these two are perfect examples: one caught the rotation, the other playing dead in divergence.
Brothers, when volume surges but price doesn’t rise, do you believe it’s a breakout or the main players unloading? A: I reduce before a fake breakout; B: I lie low at distribution’s end; C: I go contrarian and act like a hero. Comment with your letter; I’ll use you as a contrarian indicator (manual dog head).
Crypto assets are high risk; this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion.
$BTC $BICO $ADA #OKXPlanet #VolumePriceDivergence #VolumeSurgeNoRise #MarketAnalysis #RiskControlStrategy #BeginnerGuide #BTCMarket#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ SpaceX faces its first batch of trillion-level share unlocks since going public, with 911 million restricted shares becoming tradable, doubling the circulating supply. The market initially feared a sell-off stampede, but the stock price instead closed up over 6%, showing a reversal after negative news settled.
Core logic of the rebound: prior risks were already priced in. After the earnings report, due to AI-related massive capital expenditures exceeding expectations, the stock plunged 13.6% in one day, fully absorbing pessimistic unlock expectations; combined with high short positions, actual selling on unlock day was less than expected, triggering short covering, while retail investors bought the dip, jointly driving the recovery.
However, the first unlock phase does not mean the risk is over. This is only the first stage of phased unlocks, with multiple rounds of shares to be unlocked later, so medium- to long-term supply pressure remains. Fundamentally, Starlink business growth is impressive, but AI computing power investments continue to burn cash, with capital expenditures remaining high. The biggest market disagreement remains whether high investment can deliver future revenue targets.
Two key points to watch going forward: first, the actual scale of insider share sales; second, the commercialization progress of AI computing power business. Short-term sentiment has been repaired, but valuation battles are not over, and the stock price will continue to experience high volatility.
Risk reminder: content is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 0 | This is the 3rd NFP of the Warsh era 🧠 The core logic tonight: Asymmetric risk BTC currently has asymmetric odds: 1. Limited downside — Daily RSI at 24.5, more oversold than any pullback in 2024. $BTCLow, $61K structure failure. Downside capped at 3-5%. 2. Greater upside — Gold and silver have already surged (Gold +9%, Silver +15% from lows), BTC remains flat. 3. Shorts are bleeding — 24h liquidations shorts > longs (3,782 vs 2,722 BTC), short positions are more expensive than longs. Tonight's X factor is hourly wages. If hourly wages unexpectedly spike above +0.4%, even if NFP numbers are not good, the hawkish scenario will trigger — because Warsh (hawkish background) focuses more on wage inflation than employment numbers $BTC The current market is being simultaneously suppressed by three forces:
① The Fed rate cut expectations continue to cool down
US initial jobless claims data performed strongly, combined with a robust services PMI, sparking stagflation concerns. The market's expectation for a Fed rate hike in September remains around 55%. The uncertainty over interest rate prospects continues to weigh on demand for crypto assets.
② The CLARITY Act is stalled
The Senate adjourned on August 7, leaving insufficient time to complete the vote, causing the legislative process to stall. Polymarket data shows the probability of the Act passing in 2026 has dropped to 23%. Bernstein warns that if the Act fails to pass, it could trigger a "knee-jerk" sell-off in the crypto market.
③ The US-Iran situation remains the "elephant in the room"
Iran has lowered market expectations for the reopening of the Hormuz Strait oil route. Oman is pushing for a temporary agreement framework, but no clear deal has been reached between the US and Iran. The market remains under the pressure of geopolitical risks. $BTC $ETH $BICO #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ As of today, gold
$XAU has risen about 6% this week, and the non-farm payroll data is coming tonight.
I feel this trend is:
Expectation of easing Middle East tensions → Crude oil decline → Inflation expectations drop → Fed rate hike necessity decreases → Real interest rate/dollar pressure eases → Gold rises
Another point is that China is very actively buying gold; gold ETFs have had continuous inflows for half a month. This foundation is extremely solid, and you can't imagine the persistence of the Chinese in gold.
Also, personally, I feel the real big breakout for gold might wait until after the AI bubble completely bursts and the Federal Reserve starts flooding the market with liquidity. $GRVT: The data looks increasingly pessimistic; this is not a value-driven market, but a liquidity-driven market.
$GRVT has been listed for only about a week, and the biggest risk is not price fluctuations, but the extremely small circulating supply, high turnover rate, and highly unstable token distribution.
First, let's look at the circulation structure.
The total issuance is 1 billion tokens, with only 114.3 million currently circulating, a circulation rate of just 11.43%. This means the tokens truly available for trading in the market are very limited. Once subsequent unlocks occur, the market will face long-term potential selling pressure. With such a low circulation rate, prices are more easily driven by capital rather than real value.
Next, let's examine the trading data.
The 24-hour trading volume reached 174 million tokens, with a turnover of 51.58 million USDT, while the circulating market cap is only about 227 million RMB. The volume-to-market cap ratio is high$XSPCX rose on the day of the lock-up expiration, and no one fled
Today, the first batch of SpaceX restricted shares were unlocked, with 911.5 million shares available for sale. However, the stock price actually rose 3% to $111, with no sign of the feared stampede selling.
On the day the earnings report was released, the stock actually fell 8% after hours. Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, nearly $1 billion higher than the market expectation of $6.9 billion. Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $540 million. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, and AI revenue reached $2.56 billion.
The main selling pressure came from capital expenditures. The company invested $18.4 billion in the quarter, including $15.8 billion into AI infrastructure, significantly higher than Wall Street’s expected $13 billion. Musk said on the call that these AI computing deployments will pay off within a year and predicted revenue would reach $1 trillion by 2030.
Before the lock-up expiration, the market’s biggest concern was that with over 900 million shares becoming available, many would sell. But the stock rose today, indicating the market absorbed the lock-up pressure, suggesting those who wanted to sell likely already did, and the remaining holders are not eager to leave.
Deutsche Bank maintained a $255 price target, saying the current valuation essentially prices AI business at near zero, which is overly punitive.
Now all eyes are on the upcoming lock-up expirations: over 300 million shares on August 20, and about 700 million shares each in September and October.
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ ——$AMD $OKB 1H LONG SETUP
Direction: Long after reclaim
Entry Zone: 88.00–88.30
Stop Loss: 87.00
TP1: 89.00
TP2: 89.69
TP3: 91.00
Reasoning: OKB is consolidating after the impulsive move from the 85–86 base. MA10/20 remain underneath price, but MA5 has flattened and 88.25 is the immediate reclaim level. Holding above that puts the 89.69 liquidity high back in focus.
Personal Advice: I’d wait for 88.25 to turn into support rather than buying the middle of the consolidation. TP2 is the key decision point for me. Not financial advice.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Those who lay foundations know best: when the load-bearing wall starts to crack, no one waits for the entire building to collapse before running.
$DOT right now feels like a tower crane halfway through construction suddenly starting to tremble. It only rose 1.74% in 24 hours—sounds harmless? Construction never looks at daily pouring volume but at structural stress. The short-term RSI has already soared to 65.6; this beam is under stress close to its design limit, one more step up and it enters the plastic deformation zone. Even more glaring is the Bollinger Bands position: the mid-term price has already hit 101%, piercing the upper band, like forcibly building a cantilevered balcony beyond the red line; in the short-term BB range, the price is stuck at a high of 94%, with only a 0.1% gap to the upper boundary. Once the wind blows, the entire curtain wall will resonate.
Looking down, there is only a 2.1% buffer to the lower band. This is not the toughness range of concrete—it is the brittleness range of tempered glass.
My construction plan is ready:
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.87 (4.7% above current price)
Take Profit 1: $0.77 (-6.5%)
Take Profit 2: $0.80 (-3.3%)
Stop Loss: $0.97 (+17.1%)
Why not enter at the current price? Because a truly excellent structural engineer doesn’t rush in to measure cracks right after an earthquake but waits for aftershocks to pass and the structure to stabilize before applying new loads. Waiting for a 4.7% rebound is like setting scaffolding on the fourth floor instead of the ground, gaining better load-bearing conditions and clearer stress paths. This short position is not betting on a price crash but on a structural correction.
Take profits are set in two stages. The first at $0.77 captures a -6.5% settlement gain, the most common shrinkage after foundation backfilling; the second at $0.80 captures a -3.3% regular shrinkage, a natural release of frame temperature stress. The 3.2% gap between them is like two ring beams at different elevations in the design, intercepting different stages of downward kinetic energy.
Stop loss at 17.1%—set at $0.97. Structurally, this means: when the price climbs back to 0.97, the cracks in the entire load-bearing wall are no longer superficial decoration but real structural failure. Beyond this line, any analysis becomes worthless, and only an escape route remains.
RSI 65.6 is just an alarm, not a verdict; but the 101% Bollinger position shows the structure is already on the edge of a cliff. Add the slight 1.74% rise—a piece of concrete debris falling from the top of a building about to lose stability.
This is the final stroke of the construction plan: when rooftop stress exceeds the calculated value, no matter how beautiful the facade, it is just decoration before the ruin.#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温
Alphabet issued $25 billion in bonds at once, attracting over $115 billion in subscriptions, indicating that the market is not worried about whether it has money, but believes it can create even greater value in the future. What truly deserves attention is not the bond issuance itself, but that this money will be heavily invested in AI data centers, computing power, and infrastructure, signaling that global AI competition has entered a new stage.
In the past, the competition was about whose large model was smarter; now it is about who has more GPUs, more data centers, stronger talent reserves, and more abundant cash flow. AI competition is upgrading from a "technology war" to a "capital war."
At the same time, management changes at DeepMind and AI core talent starting new ventures also signal that the AI industry is entering a phase of talent reshuffling. As technology gradually matures, top scientists, engineers, and R&D teams will become scarcer resources than the models themselves.
From the capital market perspective, this is actually a double-edged sword.
On one hand, Alphabet’s continued investment in AI shows that tech giants remain firmly optimistic about AI’s commercial value over the coming years; the long-term logic remains unchanged. On the other hand, the ever-increasing capital expenditures mean the market will pay more attention to return on investment (ROI) in the future. If massive investments cannot continuously translate into revenue and profit, valuation pressure will gradually emerge.
For the crypto market, this is also worth noting. Tech giants’ ongoing AI investments will continue to drive attention to AI computing power, decentralized computing, data storage, and AI Agent sectors. But future funding will no longer pay for all "AI concepts" indiscriminately; it will concentrate on projects that truly have product implementation, user growth, and business models.
In summary: The second half of AI has already begun. The competition is no longer about who releases the model first, but who has the ability to sustain investment for ten years and ultimately realize commercial value. The future determinants of success will be capital, talent, and ecosystem, not just technology.A lockup expiry can reveal more about positioning than fundamentals. SpaceX rising about 6% as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale suggests the immediate supply risk may have been more anticipated than feared.
Still, the first post-IPO report leaves a harder test ahead: roughly $7.8B in revenue, up about 90% YoY, alongside a $541M net loss and concern over higher AI capex. My read is that the rebound buys management time, not immunity. From here, guidance, margins and cash discipline must turn the AI-space infrastructure thesis into measurable operating progress. Not advice, just analysis.
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #OKXOrbitConclusion first: Although BTC's short-term structure is weak today, I do not recommend establishing new directional positions before the US non-farm payroll data is released tonight.
For the short-term positions previously established around $64,500, if you seek stability, a more reasonable choice is to proactively exit or significantly reduce positions before the US July employment report is released at 20:30 Beijing time, to avoid turning an ordinary technical trade into an uncontrollable macro event trade.
Currently, BTC has fallen back from the intraday high, with both the short-term highs and rebound strength weakening, and the price structure beginning to lean bearish. However, so far, the market has not formed an effective break below around $64,000, and the rebound cannot return to the intraday high, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have truly gained trend control for the time being.
Before major macro data releases, large funds usually reduce active directional exposure, so the current $64,000–$65,000 range is more of a low-efficiency oscillation zone waiting for information to be repriced. Opening positions early in this environment is essentially betting on the direction of the next breakout.
If you insist on trading early, I would relatively prefer light short positions because the short-term structure has already started to weaken, and there is still obvious supply around $64,800–$65,000 and higher near $65,500. But such positions can only be defined as small-scale trial-and-error trades and should not be held lightly waiting for so-called "break-even opportunities" after the judgment fails.
The true meaning of light positions is to be able to immediately admit mistakes at very low cost when the market turns strong again, not to increase tolerance for holding against the trend.
Compared to predicting early, I prefer to wait for price confirmation after the non-farm release. If BTC breaks below $64,000 with volume and then rebounds with low volume failing to reclaim it, you can look for short opportunities accordingly; if the price instead breaks above $65,000 with volume and successfully holds after a pullback, it means the previous bearish assumption has failed, and you should stop shorting and reassess the trend.
Therefore, the most important thing today is not to catch the first wave of volatility after the non-farm release early, but to control event risk, wait for the market to complete repricing, and then participate in the trend following the breakout and pullback structure. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $BTC Outlook: Constructive, but Expect Volatility 📈
Bitcoin continues to show signs of resilience, but volatility is likely to remain part of the journey. If today's macro data doesn't deliver a major negative surprise, $BTC has a good chance of finishing the week on a stronger note.
1️⃣ ETF inflows remain the key tailwind
Institutional demand is returning, with around $660M in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week. The shift from sustained outflows to steady inflows provides one of the strongest supports for the current trend.
2️⃣ Today's U.S. economic data is the main catalyst
Markets are focused on Non-Farm Payrolls and inflation data.
• Weaker-than-expected numbers could boost rate-cut expectations and support risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• Stronger-than-expected data could lift Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, creating short-term headwinds.
3️⃣ Macro still defines the upside
While liquidity conditions have improved, elevated interest rates and bond yields continue to limit aggressive upside. A sustained breakout will likely require stronger buying volume and continued institutional participation.
4️⃣ Market sentiment remains cautious
The Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone, suggesting investors remain defensive rather than overly optimistic. Historically, recoveries often begin while sentiment is still subdued.
📌 The outlook remains cautiously bullish, but the next major move will likely be determined by macroeconomic data, ETF flows, and overall liquidity conditions.
$BTC
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs Gold is going crazy again.
On Wednesday, spot gold surged 4.1% in a single day, marking the largest single-day gain since February 3. On Thursday, it broke through 4300 intraday and surged to a high of 4343. COMEX futures were even more aggressive, hitting an intraday high of 4363 on Thursday.
From 4000 to 4300, it took three days.
Why did it suddenly surge?
On the surface, it seems like three things come together:
US July ADP employment data was disappointing, with only 44,000 jobs added, compared to the expected 75,000. As employment cools, interest rate hike expectations fall accordingly.
The agreement between Iran and Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization, with oil prices dropping 10% over the week. With inflation expectations coming down, the pressure on gold has eased.
Earlier, gold had dropped from 5600 to 4000, with bears accumulating a large handful. As soon as the price broke through 4200, short sellers concentrated to cover, directly pushing the price up.
But some analysts have said something deeper—gold is now trading not on interest rates, but on "trust." U.S. debt keeps growing, geopolitical rifts deepen, and central banks are buying gold like crazy. In the second quarter, global central banks made a net purchase of 289 tons, a year-on-year surge of 62%. China has increased its holdings for 20 consecutive months. Goldman Sachs said the gold rally isn't over yet.
Several key locations
· 4200: The dividing line between bulls and bears—only after a breakthrough did this rally happen
· 4300: Transaction-dense zone + psychological barrier
· 4330: The weekly close holds above this level, confirming a medium- to long-term bullish outlook
· 4000: CITIC Securities says this is most likely the bottom of this round
There are risks too
Nonfarm payrolls will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, with an expected increase of 80,000 to 83,000 people. With good data and rate hike expectations returning, gold prices may be slashed. The data is poor, so 4300 might really hold its ground.
Additionally, technical indicators have entered the overbought zone, with plenty of short-term profit-taking. Iran has also released news that it will ban U.S. ships from passing through Hormuz; geography is unpredictable.
Speak plainly
Gold fell from 5,600 to 4,000, a decrease of $1,600. It has now rebounded to 4300, recovering half of its losses. Next, let's look at tonight's non-farm rolls—after passing 4330, the space above opens up, and some are calling for 5000. If you can't get through, come back and keep grinding.
Anyway, institutions are buying around 4000, the central bank is buying, so this bottom looks pretty solid. As for how to move in the short term, it depends on the non-farm payrolls' performance.
In this market, if you're not feeling good, don't watch the market.Memory continued yesterday's slump, with South Korean stock SK Hynix falling as much as 5%. The only relatively important news is that Nvidia is testing a low-memory version for Rubin Ultra.
The market easily interprets this news as bearish for HBM demand, leading to an overreaction against memory stocks.
There are two variables affecting HBM manufacturers' profits: how much HBM each GPU is equipped with, and how many GPUs Nvidia ultimately sells.
If the configuration drops from 16 layers to 12 layers, the capacity per stack decreases by 25%, so GPU shipments need to increase by about 33% to offset this bit demand loss. The value per card will indeed decline, but the downgrade can also improve yield, ease supply pressure, and help Nvidia deliver more GPUs. Cloud providers may need to increase the number of GPUs to maintain the same model capacity.
Therefore, this news first proves that high-end HBM supply cannot keep up with computing power demand, but it does not yet prove that total HBM demand is declining.
The impact on the three HBM manufacturers—SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron—is also different.
SK Hynix faces the greatest short-term pressure. It remains the leader in HBM bit shipments, and a reduction in per-card capacity will directly lower market expectations for high-end product mix and ASP. However, SK Hynix has already delivered 12-layer HBM4E samples. If Nvidia reverts to a specification easier to mass-produce, SK Hynix can offset some value loss with higher yields and more shipments.
Samsung faces the smallest direct impact and has the greatest potential to increase its market share. Samsung's business is more diversified and has already mass-produced HBM4 and delivered 12-layer HBM4E samples. If Nvidia lowers capacity, layer count, or product generation requirements, the threshold for Samsung to enter a larger share of the supply chain will also decrease. For Samsung, this is more like an opportunity to grab market share.
Micron is in between the two. It is the most directly sensitive HBM stock in the US market, so its short-term valuation will be pressured first. But Micron's 12-layer HBM4 has been mass-produced for Vera Rubin. If Rubin Ultra adopts more mature specifications, Micron's existing production lines can realize revenue faster. Next, it depends on whether Micron can secure more Nvidia allocations and whether non-Nvidia ASIC orders can absorb the increased capacity.
Therefore, the short-term sentiment impact is greatest on SK Hynix, followed by Micron, and smallest on Samsung. Mid-term stock price elasticity depends on whether Samsung can increase its share; earnings certainty still depends on SK Hynix, while Micron needs to wait for order validation.
Only if contract prices stop rising, total GPU deployment is reduced, and HBM bit orders decrease continuously will this news escalate into a bearish HBM cycle.
Before that, Nvidia proactively lowering configurations actually indicates that the most constrained part of AI computing power has extended from GPUs to HBM.$SPCX
📊【Tonight at 20:30, the US Nonfarm Payroll data is coming!】
Tonight the market will face three key data points:
✅ Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
* Market expectation: about 88,000
* Previous value: 57,000
✅ Unemployment Rate
* Market expectation: 4.2%
* Previous value: 4.2%
✅ Average Hourly Earnings (month-over-month)
* Market expectation: 0.3%
* Previous value: 0.3% (Investing.com)
💡 How to judge if it's bullish or bearish?
🟢 Bullish for US stocks, BTC, ETH:
* Nonfarm payrolls below expectations but not too bad (e.g., 50,000–80,000).
* Unemployment rate higher than expected (e.g., 4.3%).
* Average hourly earnings lower than expected (≤0.2%).
👉 Indicates cooling labor market and easing inflation pressure, the market will raise expectations for Fed rate cuts, and risk assets usually benefit.
🔴 Bearish for US stocks, BTC, ETH:
* Nonfarm payrolls significantly above expectations (120,000 or even 150,000+).
* Unemployment rate lower than expected (4.1% or lower).
* Average hourly earnings higher than expected (0.4% or above).
👉 Indicates labor market remains strong and wages rise quickly, the market may worry about delayed rate cuts, bearish for risk assets. (Reuters)
📌 My view:
Currently, the market focuses more on rate cut expectations. If tonight's data only mildly weakens rather than sharply deteriorates, I think overall it leans bullish, with a slightly higher probability of US stocks, Bitcoin, and Ethereum rising.
⚠️ The first 10–15 minutes after the 20:30 data release usually see the largest volatility, so pay attention to position and leverage control.
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ The Korean National Police Agency handed over the custody contract for seized virtual assets to Dunamu, the parent company of Upbit, for a period of 1 year. The assets will be placed in Upbit Custody, using 100% offline cold wallets, equipped with MPC, DKG, and multisig.
This development does not directly benefit the coin price, but it indicates that compliant custody by exchanges is becoming formal infrastructure. There's not much to speculate on in the short term, but in the long run, custody services capable of handling government and institutional assets are more stable than relying solely on transaction fees. ADP data at 44,000, hitting a new low for the year. According to textbook logic
Weak employment → lower rate hike expectations → positive for non-interest assets
Gold should rise, and indeed gold has stood above 4300, but after surging it fell back to around 4250. Whether gold can hold above 4300 or even push higher depends critically on tonight's nonfarm payroll data.
But on the same day as ADP, initial jobless claims came in at 199,000, below 200,000 for the third consecutive week, the lowest since September 2022.
Two employment data points, one says employment is collapsing, the other says employment is very stable. The market is caught between two directions: on one side the weak signal from ADP, on the other the resilience shown by initial claims.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays say ADP's predictive power for nonfarm payrolls has never been strong and is more easily skewed by small and medium enterprise samples. Low initial claims indicate companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs, just being cautious about hiring. The market calls this "low hiring, low layoffs."
While employment data is conflicting, the Fed also lacks a unified stance. Cook said, "If inflation doesn't cool down, I'm ready to act," Schmidt said rates are "not restrictive enough" and may need to rise, while Bessent said "no need to raise rates at this stage." Three people, three different views. CME shows about a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, half betting yes, half no.
The impact on assets is very interesting.
SanDisk $SNDK fears rate hike expectations the most. Revenue at 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, gross margin 84.6%, and approved a 14 billion buyback, yet shares fell 7% after hours. Good earnings but stock price dropped because the market fears the future interest rate environment, not past performance.
Gold $XAU has the clearest logic. Weak ADP → lower rate hike probability → weaker dollar → gold rises. When it stood above 4300, it was trading rate expectations.
$BTC is awkward. With the same macro script, gold surged, BTC is stuck at 64,000. ETF money is flowing in, with a single-day net inflow of $243 million on August 6, but the price remains flat. Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, US institutions are selling, Asia is buying. Fed internal divisions are large, with rate cut expectations and rate hike risks pulling against each other, BTC is caught in the middle grinding.
Gold is trading rate expectations, BTC is waiting for its own catalyst. It's not that BTC is ignoring macro, but macro itself is directionally unclear, and funds don't know which way to bet.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next Thursday's CPI will decide whether there will be a rate hike in September.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ The recent sell-off in memory stocks is a classic example of sentiment weakening before fundamentals.
The long-term industry thesis hasn't changed. AI demand for HBM, $DRAM , and memory remains strong, and supply hasn't suddenly shifted. The problem is that many memory names rallied so aggressively that the market had already priced in near-perfect expectations.
Now, anything short of exceptional guidance is being treated as a reason to take profits.
This doesn't necessarily signal the end of the AI memory story—it looks more like a deleveraging event after an extended run.
In my view, the next move for Korean memory stocks won't depend solely on SK Hynix or Samsung's fundamentals. It will also depend on whether leveraged positions have been flushed out and whether institutional investors are willing to reprice the sector.
Even the strongest fundamentals can struggle to lift prices if the market is crowded with investors looking to exit at the first opportunity.
📌 AI memory remains a compelling long-term theme—but even the best narratives need healthy positioning to sustain the next leg higher.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #GoldRalliesBTCStalls
Gold remained close to $4,240 per ounce after a strong rebound, while silver traded above $61. The World Gold Council has highlighted the increasing importance of central-bank purchases and Asian demand, suggesting that gold is becoming less dependent on US real yields alone. Continued geopolitical uncertainty and demand for portfolio protection are also supporting the traditional safe-haven trade.
Bitcoin remains around $64,000 without a convincing breakout, creating another divergence between physical gold and “digital gold.” In my view, Bitcoin is currently behaving more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset because it depends heavily on ETF flows, leverage, the dollar, and crypto-market sentiment. That does not eliminate its long-term monetary case, but it shows that gold and BTC still serve different roles during uncertainty. Stronge#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Same sector, different fate. Over the past 30 days, the storage giants have followed completely different trajectories on Hyperliquid. Micron (MU) has fallen 5.7% cumulatively, SanDisk (SNDK) 23.8%, and SK Hynix (SKHX) down 31.8%. Although MU is also falling, it outperforms SNDK by about 18 percentage points and SKHX by about 26 percentage points. This data shows not only "divergence between strength and weakness," but also that structural capital differentiation and chip restructuring have already occurred within the same sector. Why such a large gap? Looking at capital flows: MU recorded the highest single long position increase in the tens of millions in the past 30 days, with funds actively taking on the role; Although SNDK plunged after the earnings report, open interest actually increased by 40%, with the largest divergence between bulls and bears; Even though SKHX was heavily rated buy by multiple Wall Street institutions, it still saw a net reduction of over $6.8 million in long positions over the past 30 days, with open interest plunging by about 70%, and capital outflows being the most concentrated. The market is already voting with real money: MU is the most obvious target for capital inflows, SNDK is the one with the biggest divergence between long and bearish, and SKHX is the one with the most sustained outflows. Even within the same market cycle, the gap between different stocks continues to widen—this is not a broad sell-off, but a redistribution of funds. $SNDK $SKHY $MU #闪迪财报双超预期, with a new $14 billion buyback authorization #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outflow inflation? #联储鹰派信号Western Union launches the USD stablecoin USDPT, deployed on Solana and issued by the regulated Anchorage Digital Bank.
Western Union operates globally, essentially a business of "moving money across borders." In the past, users paid for long clearing chains, intermediaries, and weekend shutdowns. Now stablecoins can settle around the clock, completing in minutes what used to take days.
So, those who charged for the old bridge started building their own boats.
USDPT can connect Western Union's global agent network, used for institutional settlement, consumer payments, and cash exchange; consumer-facing payment functions are planned to cover more than 40 countries.
It may not shake USDT and USDC, but it unveils a more important scene:
Stablecoins are no longer exclusive toys of Crypto companies.
Banks, payment companies, and remittance giants will issue their own on-chain dollars. They are not here to join a revolution; they just realize—if the old system is not moved on-chain, it will eventually be left ashore.
The door was not kicked open.
The owner of the door changed the lock themselves.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 The Federal Reserve also can't save the market
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been fluctuating recently, but strangely, the US stock market is no longer falling, and gold isn't dropping either. Could it be that the US stock market has become desensitized to oil prices?
Let me say something counterintuitive: The repeated tensions the US stirs up in the Middle East have nothing to do with geopolitics or the US stock market; behind it all is a focus on the liquidity of the global capital markets.
Some have said that the US is targeting Iran this time to control the global oil supply. That makes sense, but it's not the core essence. Because the US is not short on oil now, and the dollar is no longer anchored to oil extracted from underground but to computing power running in data centers. Oil is the lifeblood of traditional industry, but AI is the brain of the future economy.
The impact of oil price fluctuations from March to July this year on the global market is gradually losing its magic. The entire financial market sees that this oil crisis is not triggering a global stagflation like in the 1970s; instead, it highlights China's voice in the energy market across the ocean.
This time at the Strait of Hormuz, China has delivered a perfect answer—new energy substitution. By 2025, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate has surpassed 50%, and its installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power ranks first globally. We do import 40% of our crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but this time, with massive oil reserves and over 50% installed capacity of wind and solar green power, we've effectively replaced the rigid demand for traditional petrochemical energy.
Wall Street financial capital sitting behind the so-called "King of Understanding" initially wanted to make a fortune from this oil crisis by aggressively going long on oil. But they unexpectedly found that China, a major oil consumer, not only didn't scramble to buy oil on the market but is living quite comfortably. The strategic deterrence of the Strait of Hormuz has been largely neutralized.
The so-called comprehensive oil blockade now has become a performance where neither the US nor Iran dares to upset the table. The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is like a last flicker of the old energy era.
China has already stood at the global energy high ground. A complete industrial chain for exporting global new energy has reshaped the global energy landscape. Oil has lost its power to strangle the global economy; the future dominant force in financial markets will be AI technology.
Seeing through this big trend means you won't be scared into frequent panic selling by geopolitical news. More attention should be paid to the post-oil-dollar 2.0 version—the dollar AI anchor. In the future, the dollar cycle will add an AI cycle based on AI infrastructure devices and AI data tokens, beyond the traditional economic oil cycle and financial liquidity cycle. This is the core of the future dollar and global financial liquidity.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not represent investment advice. Please be aware of risks. The earnings season for the storage sector has given a clear signal that performance can blow through the ceiling, but stock prices still fall.
Financial report explosion is only the ticket, the guidance is the pricing anchor
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 372%, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; Adjusted EPS is $39.25, with a gross profit margin of 84.6%, reaching a historical high. Western Digital's revenue was $3.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, which also exceeded expectations. Both companies delivered impeccable results, with SanDisk falling 7% after hours and Western Digital falling 11%.
There is only one core reason: the guidance is not impressive enough. SanDisk's revenue outlook for the next #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound The XCU/NG ratio has reached a historical high. You may consider selling XCU at a high price and buying NG at equivalent value, targeting a ratio of 1.9. Initial position is 5%, with incremental additions at 2.75/2.95, accumulating up to 30%. Stop loss at 3.05.#Federal Reserve Hawkish Signals Heat Up, Can Weak Employment Outweigh Inflation?
🔥The Fed's hawkish stance suddenly intensifies, tonight's nonfarm payroll data becomes a lifeline
Honestly, the Fed's attitude has shifted quite rapidly recently.
At the August 3rd FOMC meeting, three regional Fed presidents surprisingly voted for a rate hike — the first time since 2016. Then Kashkari said, "It's time to slowly raise rates," and Daly was even more aggressive, stating, "If inflation worsens, we will take aggressive rate hikes." Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen shifted from a dovish stance to a hawkish position of "maintaining rates."
In short: the internal Fed sentiment has completely changed. From "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates."
But at this moment, the market is awaiting a potentially game-changing data point — the U.S. July nonfarm payroll report at 8:30 PM tonight.
🔴 The current situation is awkward: employment is weakening, but the Fed fears inflation more
June's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, far below the expected 115,000, marking the lowest in nearly four months. The market expects July's nonfarm payrolls to be between 80,000 and 100,000, still weak. The unemployment rate hovers around 4.2%, but long-term unemployed increased by 286,000 compared to last year.
By previous logic, such poor employment should prompt the Fed to cut rates to save the economy. But the problem now is that inflation is not dead yet.
Core CPI remains above 3%, service prices are particularly sticky, and housing costs haven't dropped much. Coupled with Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, the Fed worries that loosening policy will cause inflation to spring back like a compressed spring.
So, Wash's current strategy is clear: better to err on the side of caution than to let inflation slip. Weak employment is tolerable; inflation rebound is not.
🟡 What does this mean for the crypto space?
BTC is stuck around 64,000, caught in a dilemma. On the upside, the 68,000 resistance has been tested multiple times without breakthrough. On the downside, the 60,000 support still holds, but if tonight's nonfarm payrolls surprise negatively and next week's CPI exceeds expectations, breaking below is possible.
More troubling is that BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq has exceeded 0.8. The biggest fear in the U.S. stock market now is "rising rate hike expectations → tech stocks under pressure → BTC follows down." If tonight's nonfarm data is too weak, the market will fear recession; if too strong, it will reinforce rate hike expectations. Either way, it's bearish; only a "just right" outcome is bullish.
But what does "just right" mean? Around 90,000 new jobs, unemployment rate stable, and wage growth slowing. This "Goldilocks" data can ease market concerns.
🟢 My judgment and trading approach
In the short term, the period from August 7 to August 12 (CPI release) is the most dangerous window for crypto. Fed hawkish statements plus a cluster of key data releases mean any slight movement will be amplified.
My advice is simple:
First, before tonight's nonfarm payroll release, avoid heavy bets on direction. Volatility around the data release is extreme, with spikes common; contract traders especially should be cautious.
Second, if nonfarm payrolls are below 80,000, there might be a short-term rebound driven by "rising rate cut expectations," but don't chase it. Such rebounds are often traps, as CPI is still coming next week.
Third, if nonfarm payrolls exceed 120,000, rate hike expectations will surge, BTC will likely face pressure, and the 60,000 support will be tested.
Fourth, the safest approach is to wait for the August 12 CPI data to see the true inflation situation before deciding direction. Until then, keep positions below 50% and hold USDT for opportunities.
💡 A candid thought
Many traders are still using 2024 logic to trade the 2026 market. Back then, the Fed would cut rates once inflation came down; now, the stance is "no easing until inflation is truly dead." The underlying policy logic has changed, so your trading strategy must adapt.
At 8:30 PM tonight, focus on the nonfarm payroll data. The data itself isn't as important as how the market interprets it. Remember, the market isn't trading "good or bad data" but "whether the Fed will hike rates because of it."
👇 Do you think tonight's nonfarm payrolls will surprise negatively or beat expectations? Can BTC withstand this wave of hawkish pressure? Let's discuss in the comments.8/7 Nonfarm Payrolls, tonight is the crucial battle 🔥🔥🔥
At 8:30 tonight, the US Nonfarm Payroll data will be released, and BTC, ETH are very likely to experience a sharp fluctuation.
Haitang's judgment is that this data is more favorable to the crypto market. The reason is simple: the ADP employment data released a few days ago was far below expectations, indicating that the US job market is cooling down. If tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls are also weak, market expectations for a rate cut in September will further heat up, which is positive for BTC and ETH.
Besides, expectations of a Fed rate cut, reshoring of US manufacturing, AI industry financing demand, and high national debt pressure all make a low interest rate environment increasingly important.
However, one thing to note is that the market has already priced in the rate cut expectations in advance, so even if the data is positive, the market will likely surge first and then see a wave of profit-taking.
Haitang's operation tonight is very simple:
If Nonfarm Payrolls are weak, it's positive for BTC and ETH; currently, Ethereum at 1900 can be lightly bought one more lot.
Exit on the surge, beware of the pullback after the positive news is realized;
Tonight is destined to be turbulent, control your position size well, and patiently wait for opportunities, which is more important than blindly chasing the rally #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 🕐 Current time August 7th 15:43｜BICO Secondary Analysis: 11% surge in 20 minutes, retail investors collectively turned bullish, dare to chase this time?
Conclusion first: 20 minutes ago I said "wait for a break below 0.0385 to short," but it didn’t break, instead reversed with a big bullish candle from 0.0383 to 0.0445, squeezing out all the shorts. Luckily, I said to wait for confirmation and didn’t enter early—this altcoin’s life was saved by right-side confirmation.
The situation has completely changed now, focus on three data points:
First, the long-short account ratio flipped from 0.35 directly to 1.98. In plain terms: 20 minutes ago, there were 3 shorts for every 1 long across the network; now it’s reversed, 2 longs for every 1 short. Retail investors switched from collectively bearish to collectively chasing longs—such unanimous bullish flips historically indicate a top, not a bottom.
Second, the funding rate is still -0.21%, negative for 8 consecutive periods. Shorts are still paying the fee daily and getting liquidated, meaning the short squeeze momentum isn’t exhausted yet, but the retail crowd has changed—now the longs are the ones holding the bag.
Third, the deviation is even more extreme. The current price 0.043 is 1.5 times the 20-period moving average, the 4H position is at 90.7% near the range top, and it’s up 267% in 7 days. The faster the rise, the farther from the moving average, the tighter the spring for a reversion.
The daily candle’s upper shadow is still 3.2 times the body—after today’s high at 0.0462, buying pressure clearly can’t hold.
Trading reference (more cautious than last time):
· Short: enter after confirmation of break below 0.0423 (recent platform low), don’t guess the top
· Or short on a rebound to 0.0440-0.0445 if it stalls at highs
· Stop loss unified at 0.0465 (above 24h high), exit if broken
· First target 0.0350, second target 0.0286, risk-reward ratio 1:1.7 to 1:3.3
The only risk: in a short squeeze, altcoins can pump several big bullish candles in a row; if volume breaks above 0.0462, the short logic fails, don’t stubbornly hold.
How to verify if I’m talking nonsense? Open OKX, search BICO, check long-short account ratio, funding rate, 24h highs and lows—you can verify every number I mentioned. Suggest bookmarking this, check back in 72 hours for the answer.
📌 Posting as proof: If BICO hits 0.035 within 72 hours, or breaks above 0.0465, I admit I’m wrong.
💬 Comment battle: press 1 if you think it can still short squeeze, press 2 if you think it will top and fall. Who to analyze next? Name them in the comments.
#MarketAnalysis #AltcoinAnalysis #BICO #InDepthSOL attention speed is 1.29 times, what really matters is whether it can continue
OKX Onchain OS recorded 26 mentions of SOL in one hour at 14:00 on August 7 (China time), a speed about 1.29 times the 24-hour hourly average, with the current sentiment being "clearly bullish dominant."
Here, two things need to be separated: an increase in mention volume only indicates more new discussions; bullish or bearish dominance only represents text classification, neither equates to actual buy or sell orders. In this round of sources, X accounts for 25 mentions, news 1 mention; the more concentrated the sources, the easier it is for a single narrative to be amplified.
I will wait for the next snapshot to confirm whether the speed and sources continue, then additionally check spot trading volume, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain usage. When data corroborates each other, this wave of heat is worth looking further ahead. #FedHawksVsWeakJobs July private payrolls added just 44K jobs — the weakest print in six months and way below the 75K forecast 📉
Normally, that would cool rate-hike expectations. Instead, markets still see roughly a 57% chance of a September hike because the Fed remains focused on inflation 😵💫
So now we have weaker jobs pulling one way and stubborn inflation pulling the other. Friday’s payroll report and next week’s CPI could flip the entire September narrative again.
Honestly, this macro tug-of-war is exhausting. Which matters more to the Fed now: jobs or inflation? 👀 Current price is about $0.020
24-hour increase about 0.1%
7-day increase 12.5%
30-day increase 18.4%
Circulating market cap about $24.96 million
24-hour trading volume about $2 million to $3 million
On July 27, it just hit a historical low of $0.0168, currently only rebounded about 19%
Still down about 99.7% from the all-time high of $6.14
Real-time data from CoinGecko, real-time data from CoinMarketCap
My judgment is that CORE currently belongs to the category of "bottom with funds grabbing rebounds, but market confidence has not yet returned."
The positive is that Core DAO still takes BTCFi as the main line. CORE can be used for Gas, governance, and dual staking; holding and staking CORE can increase Bitcoin staking yields. The project team’s 2026 roadmap also plans to convert BTCFi business revenue into CORE buybacks. CORE official usage explanation, official revenue and buyback roadmap
The problem is also obvious. Currently, the Core chain’s DeFi TVL according to DefiLlama statistics is only about $4.1 million, which is still relatively small compared to the "Bitcoin financial infrastructure" story it wants to tell. Core chain TVL
Price can be observed in three areas:
$0.018–$0.019: short-term first support
Around $0.0167: historical low point, if broken may enter price discovery again
$0.0235–$0.025: previous trapped positions and main resistance area
So now is not suitable to chase just because it rose 12% in a week. Only if it breaks above $0.025 with volume, and on-chain TVL and BTC staking data continue to rise, can it indicate this rally is shifting from a "deep rebound" to a "fundamental recovery."
In summary: CORE has temporarily stopped the bleeding but has not yet left the danger zone. #Storage stocks plunge after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Recently, the US stock market witnessed a very surreal scene: SanDisk and Western Digital delivered explosive earnings reports, with revenue and profits far exceeding expectations. SanDisk even announced a $14 billion buyback authorization. However, the earnings release triggered immediate sell-offs, with SanDisk dropping 7% after hours and Western Digital falling over 11%. South Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung were also dragged down in a correction. Many in the community are puzzled: the performance is clearly strong, so why did the stock prices crash? Is this the end of the AI memory super bull market?
Core truth: It’s not that AI demand has collapsed directly, but that stock prices have outpaced fundamentals.
This round of gains in the storage sector this year has been extremely exaggerated. SanDisk’s highest gain this year exceeded 460%. The market has already priced in several quarters of price increases and AI demand for HBM in advance. The earnings data for the current period looks great, but the guidance for next quarter did not meet the market’s super-expectations. The price increase slope is starting to slow, and gross margins have hit a temporary ceiling; storage for mobile phones and PCs remains weak, with growth relying solely on the AI data center segment. A large amount of profit-taking occurred as investors cashed in on the good news, resulting in the phenomenon of “good news being bad news.”
Here are two realistic scenarios explained in detail.
Scenario 1: The AI memory bull market has not ended, entering a performance verification phase
HBM is a must-have for AI large models; GPUs running computing power cannot do without high-speed memory. Cloud providers have already signed many long-term supply agreements, and a medium- to long-term supply-demand gap still objectively exists. This recent drop is essentially a valuation cut, not a demand cut.
As long as cloud giants like Microsoft and Google do not massively cut capital expenditures, the underlying logic for AI storage remains intact. However, the era of blind, eye-closed rallies is over; every subsequent rise will require solid earnings and orders to justify the high valuation, significantly lowering the margin for error.
Scenario 2: The super cycle has peaked, beware of cyclical backlash risks
Currently, storage manufacturers’ high profits mainly come from chip price increases, not shipment volume growth. As production capacity gradually ramps up, if downstream cloud providers cannot sustain high prices and start pushing prices down, storage prices will turn downward, and industry profits will shrink rapidly. Coupled with the continued weakness in consumer electronics, this will further amplify cyclical volatility risks. Once this signal appears, the entire storage sector will face a deep correction.
Additional analysis on Bitcoin market
Storage is an emotional barometer for AI growth assets, and there is a clear cross-market linkage between the two. However, Bitcoin will not simply replicate the rise and fall of storage stocks. Currently, BTC is in a range-bound pattern with intense long-short battles.
Current market status
Bitcoin is currently oscillating between $63,000 and $65,000 in a large box range, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages intertwined and no clear one-sided trend. ETF inflows are moderate, with no large-scale incremental funds entering. The market heavily depends on the risk appetite transmission from the US tech sector.
Key technical levels
- Short-term resistance: $64,800–$65,200. Only a volume-backed close above this range can open up upward space;
- First support: $63,200–$63,500, the box midpoint and bulls’ defense zone;
- Strong support: $62,000–$62,400. A valid break below this level indicates collective weakness in risk assets and opens the door for deeper corrections.
Two linkage scenarios
1. Continued valuation cuts in the storage sector: US AI stocks collectively correct, risk appetite weakens, Bitcoin is likely to come under pressure and test the lower box boundary at $63,200 or even $62,000. Avoid bottom-fishing at this stage;
2. Storage is only undergoing short-term profit-taking. If subsequent HBM pricing and cloud providers’ capital expenditure data remain strong, the AI sector will stabilize and recover, driving Bitcoin to break out of the box and rebound.4 days ago, I caught a bullish signal about X Layer × USDG Earn that the market was barely discussing and shared it. That was also my first article to surpass 10,000 views. Yesterday, I noticed the head of X Layer released a clear bullish signal and posted a reminder. Today, OKB rose by 4 points. This doesn't necessarily prove that today's rise was driven by this news, but at least it counts as having caught the bullish signal ahead of this rally. This is the benefit of closely watching industry trends and seeking opportunities every day. Deep love brings strict responsibility. When I see strategies that might be unfavorable to OKB, I feel concerned; when I see bullish signals the market hasn't discussed yet, I try to catch them as soon as possible. I may not be the most knowledgeable OKB supporter on the entire web, but I should be among those who watch it closely. So, based on the current information, here is some speculative discussion about what might happen next. Two overlapping time points: 1. X Layer head Zakk said: "Disappearing for two weeks was to confirm all the designs to drive the X Layer ecosystem's momentum. Everything is now ready. A series of actions for the X Layer ecosystem will be launched one by one starting mid-August: TVL, RWA, DeFi, MEME." 2. According to the information disclosed so far, OKX Outcomes Phase 2 will focus on the five major European football leagues, also starting in mid-August. I don't think this is just a simple coincidence in timing. Combined with Zakk's tweet, AugustTonight at 8:30 PM, Nonfarm Payrolls. The ultimate judge of the week.
ADP came in at 44K, expected 68K, a strong downside signal. Initial jobless claims at 199K, better than the expected 203K, pulled back a bit. Two data points moving in opposite directions, the market is being pulled both ways.
VIX is hanging just above 15, extremely low. The whole market is pricing in a soft landing. Any surprise in either direction will be amplified.
Three scenarios. NFP below 100K: recession trade, defense plus gold plus U.S. Treasuries. NFP between 120K and 160K: within expectations, soft landing narrative continues. NFP above 160K: soft landing confirmed, next week chase value, cyclicals, and small caps.
Among the Mag7, $AAPL was the only one to close up, rising less than half a percent. $GOOGL dropped over one percent, the weakest. $NVDA flat at $219. $AMD down seven percent, $ALAB plunged twelve percent in a crash, but the SOX index still rose 0.33%. Chip sector is diverging internally.
USD/JPY fell to 155 on Monday, back to 158 today. Japan has not sold large amounts of U.S. Treasuries to buy yen again.
Not betting on direction tonight. Low VIX offers asymmetric returns on options. Will act after data release.
Next week: Tuesday CPI, Wednesday PPI, Thursday retail sales. Nonfarm Payrolls will determine the trading framework for the entire week.
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute investment advice.
#USStocks #TradingNotes #NFP Core: Those who were misled into joining, now it's time to see the truth clearly
Many Core holders bought in not because they truly understood the technology, but because they were pushed by phrases like "Bitcoin security + high yield + the next big opportunity." The marketing packaged complex mechanisms into a story of guaranteed profits, but the reality is far less attractive. Below, I will clarify the situation in three parts.
1. The promised pie in the marketing vs what you can actually get
Core's biggest selling point is the Satoshi Plus consensus: miners lend computing power, BTC holders stake non-custodially, and CORE token staking—all three parties select 31 validators together. It sounds like it combines Bitcoin's security with Ethereum's smart contracts. The marketing repeatedly emphasizes "truly inheriting Bitcoin's security," "earning yield without giving up assets," and "an ecosystem about to explode."
The reality is harsh. There are only 31 fixed validators, so decentralization is inherently limited, and whales and mining pools can easily concentrate power. Miners lending computing power is voluntary; any disturbance on Bitcoin's side immediately weakens Core's security narrative. Non-custodial staking sounds appealing, but there are still few scenarios that can sustainably generate stable yields at scale. The most anticipated SatPay (Bitcoin's new bank) remains in small-scale testing as of August 2026, with no public merchant transaction volume or complete business loop. The ecosystem is almost solely supported by BTCFi, with other sectors basically stagnant. Many so-called "applications" are just shells launched, with sparse active users and real fee income.
Many holders initially bought into the grand narrative of "trillions of Bitcoin assets flowing into Core," but after joining, they found that their coins' yields mostly rely on token subsidies rather than solid business revenue.
2. Complex technology, but problems are straightforward
The hybrid consensus looks sophisticated, but complexity itself is a risk. The forced mainnet upgrade in January 2026 (v1.2.0) directly pushed a large amount of CORE and delegated computing power into a temporary unbinding state, triggering a cascade of liquidations in lending protocols and halving the token price in a short time. The protocol operated as designed, with no "bugs," but the chain reaction caused by the upgrade was real. Many holders were liquidated or deeply trapped before they could react.
More troublesome is the weak value capture ability. The total token supply is fixed at 210 million, which sounds scarce, but circulating release, staking unlocks, and secondary market selling pressure are amplified in a bear market. The protocol layer's sustainable buyback or burn income is limited, and many yield logics still rely on inflation and subsidies. Once subsidies weaken or market sentiment cools, price support becomes fragile. There have been multiple large drawdowns, with market cap remaining low for a long time and liquidity insufficient, causing significant slippage in large trades.
For ordinary holders attracted by "high yield" and "secure inheritance of Bitcoin," these technical details were rarely fully explained at the start. Many only saw the shiny side when buying, not the hard flaws like few validators, external dependencies, upgrade risks, and weak self-sustainability.
3. The reality faced by those misled into joining
Many holders entered at the peak of the narrative hype. The marketing repeatedly emphasized "non-custodial," "hybrid consensus," and "BTCFi leader," but rarely highlighted risks simultaneously: single ecosystem, product delays, centralization risks, strong dependence on miners and Bitcoin mainnet, and upgrade-triggered chain liquidations. As a result, after a large price drop from the peak, many realized they didn't buy a stable infrastructure but an experimental project still validating its business model.
The technology itself is not without highlights; non-custodial BTC yield and EVM compatibility do lower some barriers. But these highlights currently cannot support the grand vision once portrayed. Evidence of sustainable income, real user attraction, and a positive flywheel is still insufficient. For current holders, rather than stubbornly clinging to the narrative, it's better to calmly acknowledge: limited validator count, slow ecosystem rollout, weak value capture, and amplified market volatility are facts that have already occurred, not slogans that will be "solved in the future."
The most common tragedy in crypto is often not a total technical failure but that expectations are overextended, leaving ordinary participants as the last holders. $CORE is currently closer to the latter.
#美联储纪要：讨论过加息，仍一致维持利率