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#Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week to increase dollar reserves
"MSTR hasn't bought coins for eight weeks, $4.8 billion is waiting for what?"
MSTR hasn't bought coins for eight consecutive weeks, but its cash pile keeps growing.
This company, addicted to buying Bitcoin by issuing stock, suddenly stopped.
Last week, it sold another 3.46 million shares, cashing out $334 million. Not a single coin was bought, and 840,447 BTC remain untouched.
Where did the money go? $52.4 million paid in preferred stock dividends, $132 million used to repurchase its own preferred stock, and $149 million added to dollar reserves, pushing the total to a record $4.8 billion.
The ATM program is like an ATM owned by the company; when the stock price is right, it sells stock for cash.
Imagine someone who invests their salary monthly but for eight weeks only saves money without buying. The market drops, but their wallet gets fatter.
Preferred stock pays dividends twice a year, and repurchases also require cash. Cash is both a dividend commitment and ammunition for bottom-fishing.
BlockBeats' original article states plainly: funds are used for dividends, repurchasing STRC, and cash reserves, with no mention of buying coins.
Eight weeks without buying coins, no less money, bullets held back.
I haven't stopped checking their 8-K filings for two years. Retail investors should watch the dollar reserve number; the thicker it is, the more they are waiting for a low point.
One verification: check the 8-K every Wednesday. Cash thickening continuously without action often signals a big move is being prepared.
When it resumes buying coins, the announcement will come before the market. $BTC Oh my god, this market is torturing people every day!
Is the bearish trend about to form? 😭
$ETH finally touched 1900
Then immediately got slammed back down hard
The long upper shadow hanging on the K-line looks painful
Mentally chanting wildly: drop down! Drop down quickly!
Save me, who’s trapped!
Friendly reminder
Say what you want, but don’t blindly copy me with 100x leverage!
—
Ethereum is currently grinding back and forth around 1890
The four-hour chart shows a pattern of rising then falling
The 1900-1912 range is heavily suppressing pressure
But to be honest, the bearish trend isn’t fully confirmed yet
I’m just subjectively hoping for a drop
That doesn’t mean you can blindly short; always remember the risks.
—
$BEAT is really having a scary moment today
Down nearly 26% in 24 hours
A weekly retracement close to 89%
24-hour trading volume just over 40 million USD
Market cap less than 100 million
Turnover rate ridiculously high
This isn’t a simple shakeout, it’s clearly a stampede of chips fleeing.
If it can’t hold the 0.30-0.36 range in the short term
There’s no talk of stopping the drop.
Shorting risks getting caught by a sudden rebound
Bottom fishing risks catching a flying knife—both ways are tough.
—
Looking at $SNDK, it’s a completely different story
Intraday surged to 1641, up 7% on the day
High point reached 1667 USD
The company released long-term optimistic guidance
Revenue expected to grow strongly from 2028 to 2030
Gross margin target set at 80%
This rally has fundamental support, not just speculative hype.
But after continuous gains, short-term pressure has arrived.
1667 is a critical level.
If it can’t break through, profit-taking could trigger a pullback anytime.
—
Let me have a bite, dog whale
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 How to put it🤔
This time SanDisk $SNDK has gone crazy thanks to the news-driven rally and short squeeze, currently at a relatively high level. Let me jump out and summarize the situation.
(This is not telling you to short, just follow the trend!)
Most technically skilled KOLs can react in time to chase the longs. The news triggered the first wave of rapid rise (those who paid attention to Investor Day all rushed in, I was a bit slow, as I basically don’t watch a single asset 24/7, retail investors have limited energy). Then followed a second wave of rise with profit-taking and sideways consolidation, then it turned into a short squeeze hunt.
I participated in the market between Profit-Taking 1 and Profit-Taking 2 (Note: this is the range around the last three green lines, where Profit-Taking 1 marks the basis for profit-taking). Don’t just look at my picture lines and areas; this is news-driven, and matching the chart is really a coincidence.
Conservative investors took profits at Profit-Taking 1, most aggressive ones at Profit-Taking 2, and later new long entrants created Profit-Taking 3 and the short squeeze profit-taking.
(
Uh, a bit vague, so I’ll keep the above paragraph and add a new supplement
Market 1: Due to investor news, SanDisk started to surge in the purple area, conservatives took profits at the Profit-Taking 1 price level.
Market 2: Aggressive investors continued and took profits once at the Profit-Taking 2 price level.
Market 3: New investors entered long at the Profit-Taking 2 price level, then the price quickly reached Profit-Taking 3, which is the spot price’s relative high point for selling. There was a standard turning point with a previous K-line drop.
Market 4: The subsequent longs observed the shorts and decided to squeeze them, then reached balance in the green area and started a pullback.
)
I have no particular thoughts on the subsequent market; mainly, it’s very important to only make money on what you understand.
However, after storage stocks heated up, other stocks may become new opportunities. Korean stocks $EWY, Hynix $SKHY, and Samsung have concentrated chips, showing a clear attitude.
Hynix went through a downtrend channel then stopped falling, followed by a pullback and stop in a chip accumulation zone. Maybe an opportunity🤔? (See Figure 2 and Korean stock Figure 3)
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Let's talk about "crowdedness" with a piece of data that's easy to overlook. According to reports, South Korean retail investors have been piling into single-stock leveraged ETFs over the past two months, generating over 100 billion KRW in fees alone for brokers and exchanges. Leveraged ETFs are characterized by daily rebalancing: they buy more as prices rise and are forced to cut positions when prices fall, acting as typical trend amplifiers. When retail investors start using leverage tools to concentrate bets in the same direction, it's often not the start of a trend but an emotional peak zone—it makes the rise steeper and the pullback faster. This is the same type of signal as the surge in perpetual funding rates and open interest accumulation in crypto: crowdedness itself is a risk. Data won't play along with you, so be cautious where the crowd gathers. Is the market you're in crowded right now? #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk closed up over 8%, storage sector sees a new round of catalysts
On the U.S. stock trading day, SanDisk's intraday maximum gain exceeded 10%, closing with a strong rise of over 8%, directly driving Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and a group of storage companies to collectively rise, making the storage sector once again the focus of capital.
The core driving force of this round of market activity comes from SanDisk's release of its medium- to long-term business blueprint. The company expects revenue to maintain mid- to high double-digit growth from FY2028 to FY2030, with an adjusted gross margin target close to 80%, and plans to return all excess cash to shareholders. The most significant news is that SanDisk has reached new long-term business agreements with 8 customers, with contract durations up to 5 years and a total contract value as high as $93.9 billion.
For a long time, the storage industry has been labeled as strongly cyclical, with large price fluctuations and questioned performance stability. This large long-term contract is the key point of market competition. If long-term contracts can stably lock in orders and smooth out cyclical fluctuations, it is expected to continuously support high gross margin levels and fulfill cash dividend plans, allowing the logic behind this round of stock price increase to continue to be realized.
Looking at the entire sector, the commercialization of large AI models is continuously being implemented, reshaping the old cyclical logic of the storage industry. With major AI companies continuously increasing investment in computing infrastructure, demand for large-capacity storage is rising long-term. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has returned to a technical bull market, with capital continuously flowing back into the AI hardware industry chain.Macro Perspective: The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has sharply dropped, becoming the biggest catalyst for the rebound
The core driving force behind this round of rebound comes from a significant improvement in macro interest rate expectations:
· Probability of maintaining rates in September rises to 69%: CME FedWatch shows that the market pricing for the Fed to hold steady in September has risen to 69%. A few weeks ago, the market still expected two more hikes before the end of 2026, and a September hike was once considered highly likely.
· Four macro data points have weakened consecutively: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month (expected +0.1%); CPI year-over-year dropped to 3.4%; PPI year-over-year fell to 4.7%; July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000.
· 2-year US Treasury yield dropped about 20 basis points: It has been declining continuously since July 23, directly easing valuation pressure on risk assets. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 $BTC
Analyzing the correlation between miner costs and BTC historical price trends:
Historically, BTC bear markets almost always break through the average electricity cost of miners, averaging around 30%. This is why the total network hashrate decreases during each bear market cycle. The price drop only breaks through the electricity costs of some low-efficiency miners, which then drives the entire network into a period of equipment renewal...
This is a theory about the BTC network undergoing self-iteration and updates from the underlying hardware...
Currently, BTC's price barely maintains a level below 10% of the electricity cost break point, whereas in every past major crash and bear market, the electricity cost break point was around 30%. In other words, if this theory still holds, then BTC still has about 20% downside space from the absolute bottom.
A simple calculation places this price range between $50,000 and $55,000, which is also why previous quotes mentioned that the probability of BTC falling below $50,000 is extremely low.
To put it plainly, most miners in the entire network are still making a little profit, but the process of eliminating outdated hashrate is already underway...
It's not that the market is bad and miners are suffering; rather, BTC's supply system design inherently carries this cyclical nature. In other words, BTC's periodic crashes are mathematically inevitable, just like a forest must periodically experience a wildfire to complete its cycle... $CORE exposes the narrative illusion behind the pulse rebound
The market script has long been fixed: short-term surge after good news, quick pullback after inducing buying and following the trend, and long-term stuck in a range-bound bottoming.
Repeated surges and pullbacks completely tear apart the false facade of the CORE BTCFi narrative.
1. Roadshows and negotiations ≠ capital landing
North American institutional contacts are only preliminary communications, with no official cooperation announcements and no on-chain incremental staking. Price movements rely entirely on rhetoric to smooth things over; the so-called institutional layout has no solid proof throughout.
2. Ecosystem data deliberately inflated
The billion-level scale is derived by adding staked BTC market value; the native DeFi scale is very small. Funds are all stock migrations, with no real off-market incremental inflows.
3. SatPay is purely a forward-looking pie in the sky
The payment narrative seems promising, but the product has long remained in beta testing, with no license, no commercial use, and no real cash flow, relying entirely on expectations to support the price.
4. Avoiding competition and the hard flaw of selling pressure
Non-custodial staking is just a feature of the sector, not an exclusive moat, with competitors continuously siphoning off users.
Meanwhile, token unlocks continue to expand supply, creating endless selling pressure that firmly suppresses every rebound.
The market truth is blunt and harsh: good news is never absent, but the trend never materializes.
All short-term surges are emotional speculation, trapped holders sell at highs, with no incremental support, making rebounds destined to be fleeting.
No matter how good the narrative blueprint is, it cannot withstand long-term empty selling pressure. Without landing results and real capital, all fantasies will eventually be shattered by volatile market conditions.
⚠️This is an objective review based on public information only and does not constitute investment advice Documenting a short squeeze example currently happening in a major commodity. The London Metal Exchange (LME) key indicator measuring short-term supply tightness has surged sharply: one-day expiry contracts once traded at a $75/ton premium over the next day, the largest since January's copper price hit a record high; spot copper once traded $545/ton above the three-month futures. The "Tom/next spread" for rolling positions by one day has widened dramatically, indicating that short holders are being squeezed before the August contract expires. Behind this is traders rushing tens of thousands of tons of copper into the US ahead of tariff decisions, draining London inventories—this is not a demand story, but a structural mismatch. Looking at positions: it’s the same across all varieties, short squeezes often result from crowded positions rather than a fundamental reversal.全世界金融體系最為核心的價值錨定基準，於近期展現出令市場震驚的走勢。 根據最新數據顯示，美國30年期國債收益率一度衝破5.31%大關，刷新了自2007年6月至今近十九年來的最高紀錄。與此同時，作為重要參考指標的10年期美債收益率亦連動上揚至4.724%的高位。 此番劇烈波動絕非尋常的短期市場噪音。作為全球資產評價體系中最關鍵的基石之一，30年期美債收益率直接決定了數以萬億美元計的房屋抵押貸款、企業發債成本以及大型長期投資項目的估值模型。一旦該項無風險利率出現大幅上升，全球範疇內的各類風險資產都必須面臨估值重構的巨大考量。 究竟是什麼原因催化了這場債市風暴？ 最直接的觸發因素，莫過於美伊兩國此前達成的60天和平協議備忘錄已於週一正式告終。伊朗當局已公開表態絕不考慮延長該項協議，而特朗普政府方面亦明確表示無意續簽，地緣政治緊張局勢瞬間升溫。 與此同時，美國政府的財政赤字正以驚人速度膨脹，7月份聯邦赤字規模甚至刷新了歷史同期新高。在龐大的發債壓力之下，再疊加美聯儲內部對貨幣政策走向的顯著分歧，多重不利因素交織在一起，共同對國債價格形成重壓，進而大幅推升了債券收益率。 這波宏觀變局將對加密貨幣$BTC remained above 64,000 (24h +1.13%), and $ETH only dipped 0.5 points, **$OKB dropped 5.65% in the morning. Looking through the OKX news feed, I saw no negative news — no hacks, no regulation, no burn delays, just technical matters. If you straighten the 60-day candlestick straight up, you'll understand: in early August, $OKB climbed from 72 all the way to 109.85 (the 60-day high I just touched yesterday), and from 8/13 to 8/15, it jumped 15% in three days, with volume more than double that of June. This isn't a gradual rise; it's built on the narrative of the X Layer public chain—DeFi TVL has increased nearly tenfold in half a year, surpassing $100 million, with over 4.2 million active addresses, plus OKX burning and locking 21 million $OKB, ICE strategic investment, and official announcements of important events next week. The narrative is tough, but prices can overdraw a month's expectations in three days, and profit-taking is only a matter of time. I also have $OKB positions myself, with costs around 103.84. This morning, this bearish candlestick appeared. The first reaction wasn't to look at the news, but to flip the 60-day candlestick to see the volume—today's trading volume was 119,000 units, which is not considered "massive volume" compared to the peak of 320,000 yuan from 8/13 to 8/15. **This is not a sell-off due to negative news, but the price of rising too quickly**. X Layer#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
Just saw the news that the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.29-5.32%, directly hitting the highest point since 2007, and the 10-year yield is also around 4.72%.
Honestly, seeing these numbers gave me a bit of a shock. The US debt scale keeps growing, the pressure to issue bonds is there, inflation hasn't fully dropped to target levels, plus many countries are reducing their US Treasury holdings, and with this wave of AI financing, companies are issuing a lot of debt to grab funds. Multiple factors combined have forcibly pushed long-term yields up. It's not just the US; Japanese government bonds are also being sold off, indicating this isn't a problem for a single country—global long-term yields are under pressure.
Long-term bond yields can be said to be the valuation foundation for most assets. As they continue to rise, borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ordinary people all increase. The stock market, gold, and BTC—all are affected by the volatility caused by interest rates. Today, we can also see gold and Bitcoin have already experienced slight pullbacks.
The key now is to see if this high level can come down. If it stays at this level, the pricing logic for various assets will need to be re-evaluated. Everyone should be cautious in recent operations, avoid blind rushing, and keep a close eye on US Treasuries as the indicator.
What do you think—will long-term yields continue to surge?#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit a new high since 2007, reaching 5.32%.
In my view, the long-term U.S. Treasury yield is the valuation foundation for global assets. When the foundation rises, the valuation logic for almost all risk assets needs to be recalculated.
Multiple pressures are stacking behind this: U.S. debt expansion, huge bond issuance supply, inflation falling less than expected, overseas institutions continuously reducing U.S. Treasury holdings, plus the AI industry’s frantic bond financing, which is aggressively drawing long-term market funds. Moreover, it’s not just the U.S.; Japanese government bonds are also facing sell-offs, representing a global-level interest rate pressure.
If high yields persist, financing costs for companies and households will rise, causing ongoing disturbances to stocks, gold, and BTC.
I want to ask friends, do you think long-term bond yields will continue to surge? At this stage, should we be more cautious about risk assets? $BEAT 【Live Trading】Summary, I shamelessly apply to the handsome brothers and beautiful sisters managing OKX Planet for this to be featured. Reason: This is a personal post-trade experience summary based on real trading processes. (Mainly a review of the beat token over the past few days) I have been trading live since January, everything is visible and verifiable: opening and closing times, prices, all clear and well-founded. I feel it can be somewhat valuable as a reference for newcomers and beginners. Although the overall trend was that beat’s last glow was on 8/10 at 3.98, then it started collapsing all the way down, it was not a straight line down but had many twists and turns. Objectively speaking: even if the overall trend is unstoppable, if you persistently trade in only one direction (against the main trend), it’s not necessarily wrong or unprofitable. The key [premise] is position management and leverage control. My first counter-trend bottom buy was on 8/10 at 2.084, which failed. The second buy was on 8/11 at 0.8072 (strangely, historical closed orders show 0.8145). That day the lowest was around 21:00 at 0.725; if I hadn’t been greedy then, it would have been a successful bottom buy because the next day at 16:30 it rebounded to 1.397, showing a floating profit of 350%, but I was greedy. The second big rebound was just today, Tuesday 8/18, from about 7:15 to 8:45, rising from a low of 0.2425 to a high of 0.3198, a 31.8% rebound. Theoretically: if my last long position hadn’t stopped out around 0.25 and given up but instead firmly placed orders at 0.25 and 0.245 to continue going long (of course, it’s impossible to perfectly catch the lowest 0.2425, just counting 0.25 or 0.255), from 0.25 to 0.315 is a 26% increase. With five times leverage, that’s 0.26*5=1.3 times pure profit. I had only lost 16 USD before, and my total principal was still over 650 USD. If I had just invested another 16 USD, wouldn’t I have recovered the previous loss and gained 4.8 USD profit? (Speaking practically, for those trading perpetual contracts on OKX, not those daring to put 1/3 or even 1/2 of their funds in one position, but the median: most people dare to risk 3% to 5% of total funds. 3% of 650 USD is enough to invest 16 USD, isn’t that reasonable? Not excessive?) … In summary: before the trade is finally closed (perpetual contracts theoretically never end, haha!), no one can easily assert that those stubborn traders who persistently hold one direction, adding positions after losses, opening new positions after liquidation (counter-trend) are definitely wrong or will 100% magnify losses. Based on my live trading history, you can see I held oil positions for over a month and recovered; that post is deliberately pinned as a reminder. I bottom bought Hynix longs in early July, held for 45 days, and recovered; bottom bought Hyundai longs in June, held for 55 days, and recovered. The premise is: respect the market, reasonably control position size and leverage, no heavy positions, and definitely no all-in gambling. The charm, excitement, magic, and twists of crypto, especially perpetual contracts, are what attract us. We must always respect market risks [guard against extreme one-sided moves], but also have confidence in our analyzed and judged open positions, even if temporarily at a large floating loss (as long as the position wasn’t opened randomly or drunk). Don’t let adverse price moves or market rumors (oh, so many rumors, the beautiful old Trump is especially volatile, a master of chart lines, causing chaos, whether for country or personal gain, I don’t know, no evidence so no speculation) affect your mindset to give up halfway. When you must be firm, you must persist! (But: bottom buying altcoins and air coins is excluded: not this case. LAB is a great example. I started bottom buying at around 11 on 7/7, ordinary people holding to 1.1 is strong, but I held to 0.11, haha, blew up 47 times along the way, but I’m still alive, not zeroed out, still at the table, not completely out.) The recent huge volatility and reversals in some popular US and a few Korean stocks also prove this. When you stretch the timeline, look: taking SanDisk $SNDK as an example, would those who shorted before 2000 in mid-June definitely lose? Conversely, those who bottom bought long around 1300-1200 in mid-July, did they blow up? … It all depends on position management and reasonable leverage. If you only invest 1/10 of your total capital with 3x or 5x leverage in [full position mode], the remaining 90% is margin. Not scared of losses, you might not lose but turn floating losses into gains. If you disagree with me, please refute with data. Also, please don’t cite stories from too long ago; the big bull market is gone, no more 100x or 1000x tokens. My humble opinion: I advise against risking large funds on altcoin air coins and gambling fantasies. If you find recent mainstream Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility too small, almost stablecoins, with too little profit space, aren’t many of the top 500 US companies more attractive? Note: The market has risks; I’m not saying US stocks always rise. Extreme cold, super storms, black swans can come suddenly without obvious warning for retail investors! Wish everyone good luck and profits! #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 Hynix $SKHYNIX, Samsung too! Finally, I reiterate: the above is just personal opinion for your amusement! Not investment advice! No liability! We are all adults; before trading, calculate and estimate possible risks and losses. Only trade if you can bear it! Investment has risks; open positions cautiously and think twice! @OKX中文 @OKX星球 @OKX成长学院 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, marking a nearly 19-year high. Demand for long-term bond auctions was weak, as the market prices in concerns over the US fiscal deficit and persistent inflation.
Simply put, holding US Treasuries now yields a decent return with little effort, directly suppressing the appeal of risk assets. This is not good news for the crypto space; $BTC and altcoins overall will face pressure, and highly volatile coins like $SOL and $APT will experience greater pullback elasticity.
This rise is not solely due to rate hike expectations but more because of excessive Treasury supply—markets require higher interest rates to absorb the debt. Even if rates don’t rise in the short term, persistently high long-term yields make a loose liquidity environment difficult.
Market watch: If yields continue to climb, the crypto market is prone to forced liquidations from leveraged positions; only a clear drop in yields will give risk assets a breather. At this stage, aggressively chasing the market is not advisable; position management should be prioritized.
This is just a personal market note and does not constitute any investment advice. Ethereum is an open-source, decentralized computing platform using blockchain technology, known for its ability to execute smart contracts and run decentralized applications (dApps). $ETH is the second largest cryptocurrency globally in terms of market capitalization, serving as the "backbone" for today's decentralized finance (DeFi), NFT, and many layer-2 scaling solutions. This morning's market update on OKX Based on live trading data from the $ETH/USDT pair chartUsing a set of derivatives data to conduct a health check on this rebound. $BTC pulled back above 64,000 overnight, up about 2% in 24h. The market looks like it might be reversing, but breaking down the structure, the evidence for a bullish relay is insufficient: perpetual funding rates have only mildly turned positive—meaning the shorts are still collecting fees, not the longs wildly adding leverage; OKX's BTC open interest contracts dropped about 3%, indicating a deleveraging rebound, not driven by incremental funds; Coinbase still shows a slight discount to Binance, and US spot buying hasn't kept up. In short: price is rising, but the underlying chip structure hasn't shifted. The data won't play along with you. Do you think this is a real reversal or a short squeeze?Xiaomi’s earnings matter less as a snapshot than as a test of whether its ecosystem strategy is becoming economically coherent. Premium smartphones can support brand strength, while EVs offer a potential second growth engine; the harder question is whether AIoT and the Human x Car x Home model deepen customer engagement without adding complexity faster than returns. My measured view: premium execution is the near-term signal to watch, but cross-device integration could become the more durable advantage if adoption translates into stronger economics. Not advice, just analysis.
#XiaomiEarningsWatchThe premium space for large model application layers is narrowing, as enterprise client budgets tighten and cloud giants push low-cost self-developed models, directly forcing leading players like $OPENAI to accelerate their public listing pace before valuation reshaping.
The biggest revaluation basis for AI software layers in the current market comes from changes in customer behavior. Enterprises have completely stopped indiscriminately paying for top-tier models in daily scenarios and have started to precisely calculate the cost per call.
Among the variables driving valuation adjustments, the shift in distribution channels carries the highest weight. Cloud providers like Microsoft and Google push low-cost models and guide customer traffic diversion, directly weakening the premium pricing power of model vendors.
If an upward scenario materializes, the trigger condition is that $OPENAI or $ANTHROPIC establish irreplaceable commercial barriers in advanced complex scenarios, forcing large enterprise clients to resume high-value renewals. The key variable to watch is the enterprise-level API renewal retention rate. When cloud giants’ low-cost models can replace high-end models on complex logic metrics, this upward logic is invalidated.
The trigger for a downward scenario is that enterprise marginal budgets continue to tilt toward low-cost models, causing IPO pricing to be significantly lower than the previous primary market valuation. At this point, it is necessary to observe the secondary market’s set median price-to-sales ratio for the AI software layer. If computing power costs drop sharply, instantly restoring model vendors’ gross margins, the downward scenario becomes invalid.
The core point of contention between bullish and bearish forces at this stage is whether high-premium large models can complete the risk pricing transfer to the public market before the market fully enters a cost-sensitive period.
In the next 7 days, focus on changes in large enterprise clients’ renewal willingness for high-end AI models and the growth rate of calls to cloud giants’ low-cost self-developed models.
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 1. Overnight U.S. stock market session: The U.S. stock market was weighed down by negative factors, with the seven major tech giants generally weakening; Optical communications and memory chips surged against the trend. Optical communications: Coherent, Credo Technology, Lumentum, Corning saw significant gains; Storage chips: SanDisk, Western Digital, Micron, SK Hynix rose. 2. Major market suppression factors: escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, breakdown of negotiations, and tense tensions in the Strait of Hormuz suppressing risk appetite; Oil prices pushed up long-term US Treasury yields, weighing on overvalued tech stocks. Weak macro data suggests the market expects a low probability of a Fed rate hike in September. 3. AI hardware price catalyzing: Nvidia's Spectrum-X Ethernet silicon photonic switch is in full mass production; Rumors of Anthropic annualized revenue surging, Nvidia providing large guarantees for OpenAI's data center; Supply and demand in the storage industry are improving, and AI is driving explosive demand for HBM. Capital flows back into AI hardware (optical communications, storage), and the sector's rally may continue into Nvidia's earnings report, which will reflect sentiment in related A-share sectors. 4. Power Semiconductor Industry Trends: After Infineon's price increase, Taiwanese manufacturers plan to start a third round of price adjustments in October, with non-contract products increasing by 10%-15%; This year, the industry has raised prices twice, with the average price in the first half of the year rising 15-20% year-on-year. - Demand side: AI data centers are increasing power consumption, 800V high-voltage architecture is advancing, MOSFETs and diodes are surging, and SiC/GaN growth is opening up; TSMC increases its investment in data centersThe 30-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.31%, the highest since 2007 — Old Mo says Americans are basically bleeding themselves dry
The 30-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, with the 10-year also rising to 4.72%, the entire curve is collapsing.
Three driving forces: The government is borrowing like crazy — national debt is approaching 40 trillion, with interest payments of 857 billion in the first nine months of this fiscal year, more than military spending; AI giants are also scrambling for money — tech companies issued 192 billion in bonds this year, five times that of the same period last year; oil prices are adding fuel to the fire — Brent crude topped $90, and the correlation between oil prices and yields has surged to 0.85.
Old Mo says: The worse the US debt collapse, the deeper the doubts about the dollar credit system. BTC hasn’t rallied along, not because the logic is wrong, but because the timing isn’t right yet.
With a 5.31% risk-free rate, how much longer do you think BTC can hold? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 How to invest 1 million for financial freedom, here’s how I would allocate it:
• 400,000 to buy $voo: S&P 500, responsible for holding a basket of the core largest U.S. companies.
• 150,000 to buy $QQQ: Nasdaq 100, responsible for tech growth, but only 15% of the investment account, so it doesn’t become your entire net worth.
• 150,000 to buy the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, for example $588000: This is a position betting on China’s hard tech, not because it’s guaranteed to rise, but to keep a high-volatility yet flexible option in RMB assets.
• 200,000 to buy SGOV/SGOV / SGOV/BIL: short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, usually earning interest, used for rebalancing when stocks fall.
• 100,000 to buy gold ETFs, such as $GLD or domestic gold ETFs: not expecting to get rich, just to avoid total loss when stocks and exchange rates are both unfavorable.
The key is not just buying, but the rules.
First, don’t buy the entire 1 million in one day. Split it into 10 months, buying 100,000 each month; buy regardless of rises or falls, don’t treat "waiting for a pullback" as a strategy.
Second, settle the investment account only once a year before the Lunar New Year: at most take out 3% of the account at the start of the year to spend.
A 1 million account means 30,000, not 100,000.
What if living expenses aren’t enough? The answer is harsh: keep doing some light work, don’t force the account to support you during a bear market.
Third, if the S&P 500 falls 20% from its high, don’t add more;
If it falls 30%, transfer 50,000 from short bonds to $VOO;
If it falls 40%, transfer another 50,000. At most only move 100,000. Don’t throw 250,000 of your emergency fund into the first big drop claiming to "buy the dip against the trend."
Fourth, rebalance only once a year: if any asset class exceeds the original allocation by 5 percentage points, sell some and top up the lagging assets. Getting rich depends on the sector, surviving depends on rebalancing.
If you can follow this, you’ll thank me.HYPE｜Adding another link to the selling pressure chain, institutional holding signals appear together: the scissors difference narrative enters the hedging period
The real change is that on 8/17, another on-chain unstaking transfer occurred: an address unstaked 20,000 HYPE (about $1.15 million) and transferred it to Kraken; this address had already transferred 24,950 last week; since 2025-12, this address has cumulatively bought 1.37 million and sold 1.25 million, with a total spot transaction volume of $93.25 million and a net loss of $406,000. Meanwhile, new data on 8/16 shows: a cumulative burn of 47.57 million HYPE (about $2.64 billion, accounting for 4.76% of the max supply), a 24-hour burn of about $1.12 million, and fees generated during the same period of about $1.41 million — the single-day fee scale under Q3 revenue decline can only support "buybacks not disappearing," but cannot support "buybacks strengthening." The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%
This is a level unseen since the 2007 financial crisis
US Treasuries have started to sell off again recently.
The 30-year Treasury yield recently spiked to 5.31%, reaching the highest point since 2007, and is getting closer to the pre-crisis peak of 5.44%.
What’s particularly troublesome this time is that short-term rates haven’t surged in sync; the pressure is mainly on long-term bonds.
The US fiscal deficit, long-term government bond supply, and AI companies borrowing heavily to build data centers are all competing with the US government for long-term funds. Recently, rising oil prices have also brought back long-term inflation expectations.
So now the market is simultaneously discussing future rate cuts, while the 30-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high.
This actually indicates that the market’s concern is no longer just about the Federal Reserve, but about what interest rate will be required to justify holding US long-term debt for decades to come.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 2026-08-18 Crypto Daily Market Scan
1. Today, focus on just these 1–2 things
BTC capital inflow was interrupted on 8/17: a single-day net outflow of 1,010 BTC (about $64 million) from spot ETFs, with a weekly net outflow of about $390 million, reversing the $850 million inflow in the first week of August; the SEC's re-filing date remains unknown, and institutional cautiousness is a more solid confirmation than a "return". The second point is the continued selling pressure chain of HYPE: on 8/17, another address unlocked and transferred 20,000 tokens to Kraken; on 8/16, single-day fees were about $1.41 million, with buyback and burn around $1.12 million, a weak new data point amid declining revenue; simultaneously, Duquesne's 13F filing disclosed for the first time $23 million in HYPE treasury company shares, creating a hedge between selling pressure and institutional holdings. ETH Devnet 8 launch was confirmed (8/12), P1 closed loop. ASTER's unlock date on 8/17 has passed with no on-chain confirmation, the three conflicting data sets persist, the red flag remains.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh said: The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.29%, the market is sounding the alarm.
Brothers, Pharaoh is laying all cards on the table—the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.29%, the highest since 2007. This measure reflects not just inflation, but that the market's patience with the US government's fiscal discipline has bottomed out, faster than my gym membership expired.
Look at how brutal the data is: On August 13, the Treasury issued $25 billion in 30-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001. The subscription multiple was only 2.39 times, below average, clearly buyers are saying "no price cuts, no bids." Supply keeps increasing, the cost of borrowing on long bonds is skyrocketing—around 5.2% in May, now directly 5.29%—this increase is steadier than my weight rebound.
Don't blame everything on the Fed. After CPI and employment data came out, market bets on a September rate hike actually decreased, but long bonds kept rising. Persistent inflation, expanding deficits, and excessive Treasury supply—these three factors combined have repriced the term premium.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The risk-free rate is above 5%, making the cost of holding zero-yield assets increasingly high. The 10-year real yield is 2.41%, compared to just 1.77% two years ago. Now you can beat inflation just by holding Treasuries; Bitcoin has dropped 46% in the past year, gold has risen 32%—painful, right? So the higher US Treasury yields go, the more pressure on Bitcoin!
$BTC $ETH $GPS #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 ⚠️Attention: Unitree Technology ($Unitree) latest news
Will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market on August 19, 2026!
Stock code: 688836, issue price 150.80/share
Currently, the OTC price has already reached $105 USD; the current contract price has basically priced in the most optimistic first-day increase
From on-chain data:
Contract price rising to $128 (about 6 times the IPO price) → 53% of short positions forced liquidated; this address liquidation = short squeeze climax = shorting opportunity arrives
⚠️Opening position advice:
Don’t rush to enter today! I know you’re eager, but hold on!
Currently, 70% of retail investors are shorting; if there’s no short squeeze, the market maker might as well be doing charity
Best entry opportunity is above $128; if it can’t reach 128 and you’re afraid of missing out, you can enter in batches, don’t fill your position all at once
Finally, wishing all bosses prosperity 💰💰NBIS daily chart weakens, will it pull back after the positive earnings report?
Conclusion: Nebius fundamentals remain unchanged, but the daily chart shows short-term bearishness. This is not a long-term trend reversal but a high-level retracement after the stock price quickly doubled from 140.77, classified as a “pioneer-type pullback trade.”
Fundamentals are still summarized in four words: GPU cloud, full-stack platform, major clients, heavy capital. Q2 revenue was $582.3 million, up 454%; AI cloud revenue increased 514%, ARR reached $3 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $236.2 million. Growth is real, but single-quarter capital expenditure was $5.7 billion, GAAP net loss was $190.4 million, expansion relies on prepayments, debt, and share issuance.
The daily price temporarily fell from 285.57 to 262.25, forming a long bearish candle and breaking below 274.77; MACD remains above zero line but histogram is shrinking, indicating cooling bullish momentum. Price is far from MA20 around $222, leaving room for mean reversion; however, moving averages remain bullish, 259.07 not broken, so trend reversal is not confirmed yet.
Strategy: Do not short near 262. Short again if it rebounds and faces resistance at 274.8–279, or follow if daily breaks below 259; targets are 247 and 233. Reduce position if it recovers to 279, bearish view invalid if it breaks above 285.6.
Memory point: Strong fundamentals do not mean the stock price should rise every day; this bearish view is trading the overheated pullback.
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
For research record only, not investment advice.3600万美元的漏洞，砸塌的不只是 Humanity 协议的金库，更把 BTC 和 ETH 两套信任模型之间的裂缝，又撕开了一道口子。🐂🐻 8月17日前后，Humanity 协议遭攻击、损失约3600万美元的消息快速席卷市场。盘面第一反应是抛售，但细看之下，两类资产在压力面前的姿态完全不同。 比特币的安全模型很简单：“算力 + 私钥”。没有智能合约，就没有协议能被黑，更没有 rug pull 可谈——链上根本不存在一个可以被“掏空”的协议层。持有者不需要盯项目方，不需要读审计报告，他们信赖的是数学、能源和代码的“缺席”。这份信任朴素到近乎原始，却也因此异常坚固。🧱 以太坊则站在另一个极端。它的价值建立在可组合性之上，而可组合性的地基，是每一行智能合约代码都必须精确无误。DeFi 的力量来自于协议像乐高一样拼装在一起，但这也意味着一个零部件的裂痕，可能顺着资金链传导到整个生态。每当出现一个 Humanity 级别的漏洞，这块地基就松动一次。 ETH 持有人被迫持续跟踪每个 DeFi 协议的审计报告、合约权限和风险敞口。这种认知负担本身就是一种成本：当意外事件发生时，你无法像 BTCThe staking rate of $ETH is getting higher and higher. Many people only see the benefits, but I tend to think one step further: what will happen to liquidity if everyone stops selling?
The most comfortable logic of staking is to lock $ETH while earning rewards. As more ETH enters staking, the tradable chips in the market decrease, theoretically reducing supply pressure.
But reduced supply is always a double-edged sword.
When the market is rising, the sell side thins out, making it easier for the same amount of capital to push prices higher; when the market suddenly reverses, if liquidity also thins, prices may become more sensitive. Plus with LST, restaking, and DeFi collateral, a single ETH might be layered with increasingly complex financial positions.
So I wouldn’t simply interpret "more staking" as always positive.
What really matters is whether these ETH are truly long-term locked funds or are being leveraged further through various liquid staking products.
Locking tokens reduces supply comfortably.
But continuing to collateralize, borrow, and cycle leverage after locking is a completely different matter.
The more financialized ETH becomes, the more sources of yield there are.
But in the next extreme market event, the positions that need to be unwound might also be more complex.
#ETH #Ethereum #Staking #DeFi #Crypto #欧易星球 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
I believe the current breakthrough of the 30-year US Treasury yield above 5.3% is not a short-term disturbance but a clear signal of a systemic upward shift in the global long-term interest rate center. Its core driving force has shifted from inflation expectations to supply shocks + asset rebalancing, which will force all risk assets to be repriced.
The judgment is based on a triple data resonance:
The pressure of US Treasury supply is real and persistent. June data from the US Treasury shows that the three major overseas holders—UK, Japan, and China—are simultaneously reducing holdings, while the domestic AI financing boom is driving investment-grade bond issuance to record levels. Long-term funds are being siphoned off by both the government and tech giants.
The sell-off of Japanese government bonds has formed cross-market transmission. The rise in Japanese bond yields indicates this is not a fiscal issue of a single country but a collective shift by global central banks forced to abandon yield curve control between fighting inflation and stabilizing exchange rates.
Asset prices have reached a critical sensitivity to interest rates. When the 30-year US Treasury yield stands above 5.3%, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 needs to compress below 18 times to be attractive. The real interest cost of gold has exceeded 2%, and BTC, as a high-beta liquidity asset, is more easily drained of funds.
The current market pricing implying two Fed rate cuts this year is being contradicted by reality. If the net issuance of US Treasuries remains high in Q3, the 10-year yield may test the 5% threshold, and the 30-year may reach 5.5%. This means the discount rate in growth stock valuation models needs to be raised by 50-80 basis points, and Nasdaq component stocks need to correct by 12%-15% on average to match the new interest rate environment.
@OKX星球 🔥 XIAOMI EARNINGS: THE REAL TEST ISN’T REVENUE — IT’S MARGINS
All eyes on Xiaomi ($1810) today. 📊
Xiaomi is set to release its 2026 interim results on August 18, with investors watching closely to see whether the company can balance smartphone pressure with its aggressive EV expansion.
The setup is interesting:
📱 Smartphones: Q2 shipments reportedly fell 26% YoY, while revenue declined 17% despite higher average selling prices. Rising memory costs and weaker demand are becoming a serious margin test.
🚗 EVs: Xiaomi's electric-vehicle business remains one of the biggest growth engines, but expansion costs are putting pressure on profitability.
💰 The number to watch: Market estimates put Q2 revenue around RMB108B–109B, but the bigger question is whether Xiaomi can protect margins while scaling EVs and AI-related businesses.
🎯 Why it matters:
This isn't just another earnings report.
It could show whether Xiaomi is successfully transforming from a smartphone giant into a broader EV + AI + ecosystem powerhouse — or whether rising costs are starting to eat into that growth story.
Revenue can impress.
Margins will tell the real story. 👀
Xiaomi earnings watch is ON. 🔥📈
#Xiaomi #1810 #Earnings #EV #AI
#XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
The strategic significance of long-term agreements: restructuring industry pricing power
The reason why long-term agreements have triggered such a strong market reaction lies in their structural change to the storage industry's business model:
From "annual negotiations" to "starting from four years"
The storage industry's past contract cycles were usually one year, with prices and quantities renegotiated annually based on supply and demand, giving buyers the upper hand. However, the agreement SanDisk signed this time has a weighted average term of over 4 years, significantly extending revenue visibility.
Although long-term agreements greatly enhance revenue visibility, the following risks should be noted:
Short-term gains have already been large: SanDisk has rebounded over 60% since the late July low, with high-level volatility risks accumulating
Whether the 80% gross margin target can be sustained remains a focus of market debate
Whether the industry will ultimately face oversupply remains a risk point to watch. $SNDK SNDK rose nearly 9 points, WDC rose more than 5 points, MU rose more than 4 points, and STX rose more than 2 points. One stock rising might be a stock market, but four moving together gives a different vibe. $SNDK $MU Recently, when people talk about AI, their attention is focused on NVIDIA, computing power, and chips, but funds are already looking for things to the back. Computing power is piled up to the end, so data still needs to be saved. Last night, MU, SNDK, and WDC all surged upward. Isn't it just another speculation? This line might need to be watched for a while SNDK's strength is hard to ignore, but if I were to chase it directly, I'd be hesitant to buy. It's true that the price has risen sharply, and the volatility is also real. For companies like MU, I'd rather take a closer look. NVDA barely moved last night. Before, seeing NVIDIA sideways might have been boring, but now it doesn't seem like a big deal. As long as it doesn't suddenly drop down, the money in AI will keep looking elsewhere. Last night's strong storage was a prime example. The leader's price not rising doesn't mean the market is gone; it's just that money has gone to the sidelines. Apple is similar, with a slight drop I know it definitely won't be left behind by this AI wave, but there's no strong short-term reason to chase it. If AI really delivers something beyond expectations, a large capital like Apple will return quickly. Tesla has dropped less than a point now. I don't want to look at it from the perspective of ordinary tech stocks right now. This stock is often traded based on expectations. When there's no news, you can wait a long time. If there is news, it can immediately boost sentiment. If I had to pick one of last night's hot sectors, I would focus on it next📊 Let's look at the cards first: four cards, four faces. Xiaomi will release its Q2 2026 fiscal year results after the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 18. Market expectation revenue was 108.82 billion yuan, down 6.15% year-on-year; Earnings per share were 0.20 yuan, down 55.67% year-on-year. Mobile Phone: Volume Declines and Prices Rise, Proactive Contraction Global smartphone shipments fell 11% year-on-year, the lowest Q2 since 2013. Xiaomi's global market share dropped from 14% to 12%, with shipments expected at 31.2 million units, a year-on-year plunge of 27%. But Xiaomi chose a counterintuitive path—actively reducing its low-end shipments. ASP is expected to surge 24% year-on-year to 1335-1340 yuan, setting a new historical high. High-end is advancing, but storage price increases are weighing on gross margins—phone gross margins are expected to be 8%-8.5%, lower than last year. In the words of the Qian hexagram, this is called 'the overbearing dragon has regrets'—the higher the place, the more cold it is. Shipments plummeted 27%, and even hitting new ASP highs couldn't save revenue from decline. Automotive business: The true "flying dragon in the sky" Q2 vehicle deliveries are expected to be 102,000 to 104,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 27%. The mass production and delivery of the new generation SU7 and YU7 are accelerating, and per-vehicle losses are rapidly narrowing. Institutions estimate automotive revenue of 22.9-25.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of around 20%. In September, the Pengcheng series SUVs (N70/N90) will be launched, with a pre-sale price of 259,900 to 299,900 yuan. Although the annual target of 500,000 units is less than 50% complete, new models are the biggest catalyst for the second half of the year. The most auspicious one in the Qian hexagram#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
Awesome! On August 17 (Monday) local time, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly broke above 5.31% during intraday trading and finally closed at 5.310%, marking the highest closing level since June 2007. This level is approaching the historical peak of 5.44% set during the early stage of the 2007 global financial crisis.
The recent breakthrough of the 30-year US Treasury yield above 5.31%, the highest since 2007, is the result of a triple force resonance: fiscal deficit expansion (supply side), soaring oil prices and rekindled inflation expectations (catalysts), and massive bond issuance by AI companies diverting funds (demand side). Unlike previous cycles, this rise in long-term rates occurred against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve having already cut interest rates by 175 basis points, deeply reflecting the market's systemic repricing of US fiscal sustainability, long-term inflation stickiness, and the credibility of Federal Reserve policy. I said don't panic
See, it just came down today
Don't scare yourself first when facing volatility
Calmly break down the problem
$ETH peaked near 1918
But 1910 to 1920 is naturally a short-term resistance zone
Several attempts to break through couldn't hold
Volume didn't significantly increase
Couldn't push higher
Short-term funds naturally fled first
1900 was also lost again
This shows the rebound momentum is weakening
Now let's see if around 1890 can hold
Below that is 1886 to 1880
Only breaking below that gives a chance to approach 1850
News is also suppressing risk appetite
$SNDK ceasefire between US and Iran expired
Oil prices and US Treasury yields rose simultaneously
US 10-year yield once reached about 4.73%
This environment is inherently unfavorable for high-volatility assets like ETH — Reuters
Plus SEC postponed crypto regulatory meeting
The regulatory benefits the market was waiting for fell through again
So today's drop is not mysterious
Resistance wasn't broken
$BEAT incremental funds are insufficient
Combined with macro risk aversion
Bulls naturally withdrew some positions first
But I won't brag
My short position average price is 1874
Still haven't really broken even
1950 is still the forced liquidation line
Being right on direction doesn't mean position safety
Especially at 100x leverage
You can talk tough
But margin can't pretend to be a hero
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 🟢🔴 Review of Ouyi Contract Gainers and Losers｜August 18 Midday
🟢 Top 10 Gainers
Symbol Price Change Key Highlights
$PIEVERSE 0.9838 +16.04% Metaverse concept pulse, trading volume ₽1.237 billion, small cap easy to pump but sustainability remains a concern
$SKDD 9.83 +8.86% 2x short Hynix ETF, inverse reflection of US storage leader pullback, watch out for leverage decay
$SOXS 40.02 +7.58% 3x short semiconductor ETF, chip sector under pressure, short tools favored, volatility amplified
$H 0.12474 +7.57% Humanity Protocol rebounds, trading volume ₽6.981 billion, intense capital game, clear rollercoaster traits
$CAP 0.07043 +5.70% Trading volume as high as ₽10.587 billion, large funds pushing price up, beware of profit-taking
$OFC 0.008659 +5.40% OneFootball sports fan token, ₽302 million volume, small cap self-entertainment, limited follow-up buying
$COMP 17.51 +5.17% Compound, veteran DeFi, ₽527 million volume, defensive rebound after oversell, not a trend reversal
$GPS 0.016573 +5.15% GoPlus Security with ₽26.06 billion volume, only 5% gain, huge volume but price stagnant, strong bulls and bears divergence
$VVV 13.139 +4.64% Venice Token new coin hype, ₽275 million volume, short-term speculative funds, lacks fundamental support
$OPN 0.0542 +4.21% Opinion small cap follows gains, only ₽131 million volume, poor liquidity, easily influenced by large orders
🔴 Top 10 Losers
Symbol Price Change Key Highlights
$ZHIPU 128.6 -17.65% Zhipu AI concept leads decline, ₽639 million volume, previous gains retraced, clear AI sector downturn signal
$MINIMAX 36.96 -13.46% MiniMax Group plunges, ₽236 million volume, funds flee after concept hype
$KORU 21.79 -12.14% 3x long Korea ETF, Korean market weakness plus leverage decay double hit, inverse tools favored
$KAITO 0.3288 -11.23% Former AI hot coin, ₽2.686 billion volume, profit-taking continues after concept fades, bears dominate
$IRYS 0.01358 -11.07% Irys storage/data concept, ₽59.96 million volume, follows sector pullback, liquidity drying risk
$OUST 46.8 -9.70% Ouster lidar US stock mapping, ₽157 million volume, very small cap, influenced by US stock sentiment
$WLD 0.3263 -9.44% Worldcoin high volume ₽6.447 billion but big drop, OpenAI concept cooling, main players decisively selling
$KIOXIA 366.06 -9.15% Kioxia storage leader pullback, ₽359 million volume, storage sector sentiment reversal, short-term pressure
$GALA 0.001495 -8.51% Gaming metaverse old coin, ₽319 million volume, no new narrative stimulus, passively follows market down
$SLX 0.06447 -8.46% Solstice follows small coins collective pullback, ₽40.34 million volume, no independent trend, drifting with market
💡 Midday Summary
On the rise: No strong mainline. PIEVERSE, VVV, OPN are all small cap pulses; SKDD and SOXS two short ETFs on the list indicate US storage and semiconductor sectors are pulling back; COMP is a veteran DeFi oversold rebound; H rebounds but with extreme volatility. Most notable is GPS: ₽26.06 billion volume but only 5.15% gain, huge capital turnover but price can't push higher, weak upward momentum, could reverse anytime.
On the decline: AI sector fully cooling off. ZHIPU leads with -17.65%, KAITO and WLD follow closely, coins propped up by concepts now exposed. KORU (3x long Korea ETF) down 12%, showing Korean market weakness. KIOXIA (Kioxia) down 9%, storage sector sentiment reversed. Losers generally have high volume, indicating funds decisively exiting old hotspots.
Key signals: Two short US semiconductor ETFs (SKDD, SOXS) rank high among gainers, while storage leader KIOXIA and AI concept coins are among losers. This shows global tech sectors are pulling back, crypto cannot remain unaffected. GPS’s huge volume with stagnant price is a warning—possibly the last turnover before a storm.
Strategy: Without confirmed capital dispersion signals, sudden strong green candles are likely traps. H’s drop yesterday and rise today is a live example; chasing highs is a direct trap. Don’t rush to open new positions at midday; wait for US market open direction guidance and control your trades.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $DOGE Why can't it keep rising?
I believe one important reason is that DOGE has deeply integrated into the $BTC-dominated market pricing system.
As a high-liquidity, high-Beta mainstream coin, DOGE has been incorporated into the same asset portfolio by numerous quantitative strategies, market-making models, arbitrage systems, and risk management models.
When BTC shows a downward signal, the system first recognizes that the overall crypto market risk is rising.
At this time, quantitative strategies will reduce overall risk exposure, and high-Beta assets are often prioritized for reduction.
DOGE happens to be such a high-Beta asset.
This easily forms a very awkward structure:
BTC rises → funds do not necessarily flow to DOGE;
BTC falls → DOGE is very likely to be reduced simultaneously. 市场依旧悬浮在历史高位。 但凡略有积蓄的散户，总会在某一个阶段生出一种错觉：自己比绝大多数人看得更远、看得更透。 这是存储板块反复上演的现实。 当企业抛出宏大的未来叙事——例如未来三年毛利率维持80%以上的乐观指引，海量市场参与者会瞬间达成共识。很多人会笃定，这份认同，来自自己独立深度的思考。可他们不愿正视：自己认同这份故事的速度，几乎和K线向上拉升的速度完全同步。 人人都向往“底部布局”这份体面；面对看空、做空的声音，又本能生出正义的愤慨：行情向好之时，凭什么看空？ 这份底气，来源于一种思维陷阱：用一根阳线，完成对整个遥远未来的全部论证。 仅仅一周之前，同样一批人，还在因为快速下跌恐慌股灾将至；一周过后，海外半导体单日大幅反弹，存储板块暴力拉升，他们又立刻高呼牛市回归。 观念的反转来得毫无阻力，并不是他们彻底遗忘上周的恐惧。只是人的记忆窗口，被短期行情牢牢框住。当下盘面的剧烈波动，权重天然碾压过去所有记忆。旧的恐慌和新的狂热摆在天平两端，最近发生的现实，永远拥有压倒性重量。 这无关智商高低，是更深层的认知困境。 套用一句克制又尖锐的评价：如果一个人的判断，只能被眼What BTC has never lacked is positive news,
but solid incremental buying power.
Recently, it seems stable around 64000,
but the market is actually very cold with a sharp decline in trading volume.
Volatility has dropped to a multi-month low.
On the surface, it looks like it can't fall further, but essentially neither bulls nor bears are willing to take the initiative.
ETF data is even more convincing.
At the beginning of August, BTC spot ETFs briefly saw continuous inflows,
but recently they have weakened again.
From August 12 to 14, net outflows were 61.1 million, 131.1 million, and 56.2 million USD respectively, bleeding for three consecutive days.
After macro positive news landed, the price showed no reaction,
which fully illustrates that what the market currently lacks most
is real money willing to continuously enter and catch the falling knife. $BTC 过去一周，加密市场最值得玩味的消息，不是某条K线的突破，也不是某只山寨币的异动，而是那个曾经让全市场瞩目的“囤币巨鲸”Strategy，再次选择了沉默。 这家由迈克尔·塞勒掌舵的比特币持仓大户，刚刚公布了最新一轮资本运作细节。数据显示，Strategy通过增发MSTR股票，再度募得3.337亿美元资金，同时回购了价值1.322亿美元的STRC优先股。这一进一出之间，公司的美元现金储备增加了1.5亿美元，总规模升至48亿美元。按照当前财务成本测算，这笔资金足以覆盖未来约2.8年的贷款利息与优先股股息支出。 换句话说，Strategy的“防守垫”又厚了一层。 但真正让市场讨论热度升高的，是另一个细节：这已经是Strategy连续第八周没有增持任何比特币。对于一家以“不断买入BTC”为标签、且曾被视作加密市场多头信心风向标的公司而言，八周按兵不动，确实值得深挖。 有人把这解读为恐惧，说“连币圈最大的多头都害怕了”；也有人认为恰恰相反，说明公司在为更极端的市场波动做准备。两种说法都有各自的市场心理基础，但回到事实本身，我们或许能看到一幅更完整的画面。 从账面数据看，Strategy依然持有超过BTC再破64000 最高摸到64591 这波上涨最有意思的地方是 美伊停火消息出来之前 BTC已经涨了大半 消息只是推了一把 真正让BTC启动的 还是通胀降温 美元走弱这些宏观底层的松动 不是单纯的消息市$BTC $ETH $SNDK 过去一天全网爆仓1.86亿 空单占79% BTC自己就爆了9500万 空军被按在地上摩擦 现在的问题是洗完之后 多头还能不能继续推 今天主要看美国新屋开工 营建许可 工业产出 还有家得宝财报 这些数据能反映美国经济和消费到底扛不扛得住高利率 比CPI更直接 真正的重头戏是8月20到22号的杰克逊霍尔年会 这是最大的变量 如果沃什偏鸽 BTC继续冲65000 如果放鹰 会回到62800附近找支撑 现在纠结该等回调追多 还是防一波冲高回落 关键位和思路可以来聊 短期多头占优 但真正的方向 在杰克逊霍尔#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 The quieter the market, the more it tests faith
Today, BTC is fluctuating around $64,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $21.5B. The total market capitalization of the entire crypto market is approximately $2.28T, with BTC's market dominance around 56%. The most interesting thing is: the market hasn't given people a thrill; instead, it has started to filter out the true long-term believers. In a bull market, everyone is a believer; during a correction, you find out who really believes in blockchain. Whether BTC falls now or not is not the most important thing; what matters is that it still has the deepest liquidity, the strongest consensus, and increasingly mature financial infrastructure. Assets like SOL and SUI, which are highly elastic, feel more like another test—the narrative can be very appealing, but ultimately it comes back to users, capital, and real usage. Especially, SUI's recent stablecoin transaction volume and ecosystem expansion are worth continued observation. So don't be led by the red and green candlesticks of one or two days. The real big opportunities never appear when everyone is comfortable. What you are seeing now—is it "consolidation," or is the next round of the market gathering strength? #BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #blockchain#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
Overnight $SNDK closed up about 7.4% (intraday up to +8%), continuing investors' revaluation trend. The market is no longer just focused on NAND spot prices but on the new NBM business model trading it: it has signed multi-year long-term agreements with 8 customers (including 3 large-scale US cloud providers), with a weighted term of over 4 years. Based on the floor price, the contract value is approximately $93.9 billion, covering about 50% of FY27 and about two-thirds of bit shipments in FY28, supported by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.
Combined with the FY28-30 guidance (mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, free cash flow margin around 50%, and 100% of remaining cash after investment returned to shareholders), SanDisk is shifting from a "cyclical storage stock" to an "AI infrastructure + SaaS-like cash flow" valuation track.
There is clear spillover on the market: WDC, SK Hynix, and Micron also rose, rewriting the logic of the storage sector—AI inference KV cache/intermediate data is elevating SSDs from accessories into the computing power chain. However, note that the single-day +8% has partially priced in expectations and volatility is extreme; do not mistake the narrative for a buy signal at highs. A pullback to verify long-term contract fulfillment is the true touchstone.$MSTR has paused buying $BTC for five consecutive weeks and shifted to capital defense. Its $4.8 billion cash reserve conflicts with a $10 billion book unrealized loss, becoming the core contradiction in the current market's assessment of whether its flywheel effect has stopped.
In the latest week, the institution raised $333.7 million through the ATM program, of which $52.4 million was used to pay STRC dividends, $132.2 million to repurchase preferred shares, and $149.1 million converted to reserves, maintaining a holding of 840,447 coins. This confirms its strategic shift from continuous accumulation of coins to capital management.
The current factors driving market pricing are, in order: the marginal impact of BTC price fluctuations on the $10 billion unrealized loss, the efficiency of ATM financing and the consumption rate of preferred stock interest, and the market recognition of BTC content per share under the new flywheel narrative.
The trigger condition for the bullish scenario is a BTC price rebound above the $75,385 cost line, at which point the $10 billion book unrealized loss will be cleared. If the STRC price simultaneously rises above $100, the low-dividend financing channel will reopen, allowing it to repurchase BTC. The failure signal for this path is ATM weekly financing below $100 million.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is BTC price falling below $60,000, which will cause the book unrealized loss to continue expanding and may trigger a credit rating downgrade. If the stock price decline reduces ATM financing efficiency, the consumption rate of the $4.8 billion cash reserve will accelerate. The failure signal for this path is BTC recovering above $70,000.
During BTC consolidation, if preferred stock interest and repurchase expenditures continue to maintain above $180 million per week, the defense duration of its cash reserve will shorten.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are MSTR's ATM fundraising announcements and whether STRC's trading price falls below the key financing breakeven point.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖Account Position Divergence Radar
The number of long and short positions is one layer, and the head position weight is another layer; the real misalignment is often hidden between these two layers.
$DOGE overall and top accounts are leaning towards the long side, but the top position size remains on the short side, which is a clear set of account/position divergences. The 15-minute decline is accompanied by a contraction in risk exposure; first observe the speed of position reduction, do not interpret it as new short positions. What the long side lacks next is not more accounts, but confirmation of the head position weight.
$PEPE has more accounts biased long, but the head position weight is biased short; the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position size. Price closes positions with reductions, funds are withdrawing, but the price has not yet given a direction. Until the head position ratio returns above 1, the advantage of long accounts remains an incomplete consensus.
$GPS account direction is biased short, head position direction is biased long; the number of accounts and capital weight stand on opposite sides. The 15-minute rise with position reduction looks more like short covering or overall withdrawal, new longs have not yet been confirmed. What the short side lacks next is not more accounts, but confirmation of the head position weight.$BTC BTC
Current price is 64161. After a strong hourly surge reaching a high of 64591, it has started to pull back, which is a typical retracement following a peak.
Market status
1. A rebound started from the bottom at 62508, with strong short-term bullish momentum pushing to a new phase high of 64591;
2. After the peak, a long upper shadow candlestick appeared, indicating clear resistance above. Short-term bullish strength has weakened, leading to a partial retracement of gains;
3. The overall major structure has shifted from low-level consolidation to a bullish bias. This is just a pullback after the rise, not a direct reversal into a bearish trend.
Key levels
• Upper resistance: 64550‑64590, the recent high. If it stabilizes above here again, bulls will continue to expand upward space
• First support: 63800‑64000, the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness
• Strong support: around 63200, the launch platform for this rebound. Breaking below here would disrupt the current rebound rhythm
Practical advice
Now is not suitable for chasing longs, as the price just peaked and volatility will be relatively high.
• Shorting: plan to enter near the previous high resistance zone on the rebound, avoid shorting during the pullback
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 The US ETFs have brought $BTC and $ETH into the gateway of traditional finance, but the next wave of growth may not be in New York, but in accounts in Hong Kong, Seoul, and Singapore.
Several data points illustrate this well: Hong Kong's BTC and ETH spot ETFs have grown from less than $100 million at the end of last year to over $400 million now. Although the absolute value is not large, the average monthly net inflow has been increasing. South Korea is even more remarkable, with Upbit and Bithumb often exceeding $10 billion in single-day spot trading, with BTC-related trading pairs dominating and retail investors contributing over 60% of the activity. In Singapore, licensed funds and family offices have roughly doubled their crypto exposure in the past year. Several Japanese institutions have also started providing BTC and ETH custody allocations for high-net-worth clients, with over 40% of family offices in surveys treating BTC as a gold substitute.
The differentiation is also clear: Asian wealth holders accept BTC far more than ETH because the "digital gold" narrative is simpler and more direct. ETH, on the other hand, is more aligned with the portion of institutional funds genuinely interested in the Web3 ecosystem. Funds in Hong Kong and Singapore are increasing allocations, but the pace is noticeably slower.
Therefore, the next round of competition between BTC and ETH may not just be a capital race among Wall Street ETFs, but whether the Asian wealth market will place them respectively into the "store of value" and "growth asset" categories. Whoever secures the position first will gain the pricing power for the next phase.
This is solely a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. Long position closed, preparing to go short.
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Market trend analysis:
The last long was at 1720, exited at 1789, +38% profit.
But now the market feels like it can't rise anymore.
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk has rallied from 998 to 1827, a rebound of over 80% in two weeks.
The 93.9 billion long-term agreement is solid, but the stock price has mostly priced in this story.
Trading volume topped the US stock market, with five consecutive days up 35%, high volume at the top + increased volatility — a signal of short-term emotional peak.
Hedge funds have started to diverge; some are adding positions while others are liquidating.
Kramer also said the market worries whether the current high profit levels can be sustained.
My plan (strategy sharing):
Looking for an opportunity to short around 1750-1780.
Stop loss at 1830, target first at 1680, then 1600.
If wrong, stop loss; if right, take profit.
Rhythm is more important than direction.
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Family, if you think it can reach 1600, press 1. 🖐️
$SNDK
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高