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Family, last night the two US employment data conflicted. ADP new jobs added only 44,000, much lower than the expected 75,000, hitting a six-month low. Looking at the trend, it was 75,000 in April, dropped directly to 45,000 in May, slightly rebounded to 57,000 in June, and fell back to 44,000 in July. Hiring is cooling down and unstable. But the initial jobless claims are a completely different story—199,000, below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, still at a historic low. This indicates that although new hiring is slowing, companies are not laying off much, and the labor market is still holding up. What the market is really struggling with now is: will there be a rate hike in September? Fed Governor Cook said that if inflation does not continue to cool down recently, she is ready to take policy action. The market prices in a 56.7% chance of a rate hike in September, still over half. Nonfarm payrolls come out tonight, CPI next week, and these two data points will directly determine the policy direction in September. For the crypto market, the main macro trading theme is no longer "whether employment is good or bad," but "whether employment cooling can outpace inflation." The market is now waiting—waiting for nonfarm payrolls, waiting for CPI, waiting for the Fed to give a clear direction. During this window, Bitcoin will most likely fluctuate, and the direction will be chosen based on the data. What do you think—will there be a hike in September or not? Feel free to share your judgment in the comments. Wish everyone smooth trading today. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls release! September rate hike probability 63%, BTC ultimate long-short showdown 💥 Tonight at 8:30 PM, global traders collectively focus on the screen—the official US July Nonfarm Payrolls announcement. The market expects an increase of 80,000 jobs, slightly better than the dismal 57,000 in June, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2%. But the real powder keg is the Federal Reserve: last week at the FOMC, three officials voted for a rate hike on the spot, and Governor Cook stated "ready to support a rate hike"; insiders revealed that as long as inflation remains hot in the coming weeks, Chair Powell is ready to act in September. Bank of America is even more aggressive—predicting three consecutive rate hikes! Don't forget the previous lesson: June Nonfarm unexpectedly came in at 57,000, BTC surged 4% that day to 62K, and touched 64K over the weekend. If the data disappoints again this time and rate hike expectations collapse, BTC will repeat the script; if data exceeds 100,000, rate hikes are nailed down, and risk assets will collectively bow down. The small Nonfarm ADP has already exploded early: only 44,000 added in July, the lowest in half a year! Tonight, which side are you betting on? 🅰️ Nonfarm disappoints → BTC surges, bottom-fishing opportunity arrives 🅱️ Nonfarm exceeds expectations → BTC under pressure, better to run first 🅲️ Data is average → range-bound, just watch the show 🅳️ No guess, go all in then delete the app Comment below to take sides, let me see the long-short ratio!📊#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #ADP employment cools down, Fed policy divergence intensifies July ADP employment data fell short of expectations, and the market began to trade ahead on Fed rate cut expectations, but I believe things are not that simple. In the past month, the market cannot just focus on employment. The US-Iran situation heated up in July, geopolitical risks pushed oil prices higher, and energy costs have once again become an inflation concern. Crude oil is like the blood of the economy; once prices rise rapidly, transportation, manufacturing, and consumption all get affected, ultimately reflecting in the CPI data. Therefore, I think tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next week's CPI may not be as favorable as the market imagines. Cooling employment does provide a reason for rate cuts, but if inflation pressure from energy prices rises again, the Fed will not find it easy to pivot quickly. This is why the market is very conflicted now: bad employment data supports rate cut expectations, which is positive for US stocks and $BTC, but inflation risks from rising oil prices $CL $BZ limit the market's upside. Regarding US stocks, I believe there is still short-term support; AI and tech sectors remain the focus of capital, but if CPI exceeds expectations, the high valuation of US stocks may face a stress test. As for gold, I remain bullish. Geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and rate cut expectations all fuel gold. However, gold has risen significantly recently, so short-term volatility and consolidation may occur. The biggest variable for BTC right now is not technicals but liquidity. If the market regains confidence in a September rate cut, capital may flow back into risk assets, giving BTC a chance to rebound; but if CPI shows inflation heating up again, the market may choose to seek safety first. I think the July oil price increase might be a hidden landmine; the market is currently trading on rate cuts and tonight's nonfarm payroll sentiment, while CPI will determine the direction. The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Update (August 7) According to liquidation data, the shorts have been mercilessly crushed by the dog whales... Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour: approximately $1520.25 Long position liquidations: approximately $0 Short position liquidations: approximately $1520.25 Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours: approximately $1520.25 Long position liquidations: approximately $0 Short position liquidations: approximately $1520.25 Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours: approximately $2380.23 Long position liquidations: approximately $0 Short position liquidations: approximately $2380.23 Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours: approximately $2475.43 Long position liquidations: approximately $47.30 Short position liquidations: approximately $2428.14 From the $CORE liquidation data, short liquidations dominate entirely in the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour periods, with longs at zero. The short squeeze is a purely one-sided force throughout the short to mid-term cycles; in the 24-hour period, short liquidations still lead by a wide margin, but longs have begun to show a very slight resistance (only $47), with short liquidations 51 times that of longs. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on CORE—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles have been comprehensively targeted and liquidated, while the longs’ minimal resistance is almost negligible, with total liquidations under $2500. Although the scale is small, the direction of the short squeeze is extremely consistent, a textbook example of a one-sided short squeeze. Everyone, manage your positions carefully and avoid being repeatedly harvested. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 7 Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "expectations maxed out, flaws punished"—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified. 💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue of $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%. However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance—next quarter’s revenue midpoint of $10.55 billion fell short of the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough." Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean stock saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified. 🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned in direction since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible." Can weak employment suppress inflation? July’s ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September. 🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: A Classic Case of Bad News Being Good News On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off. Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced equals good news." However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September. 💎 Summary SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance is infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Guigu Morning Report Analysis｜HYPE We shared HYPE around $31, and after it rose to about $68, we took profits. Now that it has fallen back to this level, I personally feel it can re-enter the observation zone, preparing to look for an opportunity to get on board. Recently, there have been market rumors that HIP-3's largest market, TradeXYZ, might break away from Hyperliquid and operate independently. This is one of the main reasons for the decline. Another reason is the stagnation of HYPE ETF capital inflow. However, in the past few days, TradeXYZ has started using part of its fee income to buy back HYPE and use it to purchase new Tickers. At least from this action, TradeXYZ is still continuing to invest in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, and the independent operation rumor is unfounded. Currently, the fees generated by TradeXYZ's HIP-3 market are split 50% to TradeXYZ and 50% to Hyperliquid. The portion received by Hyperliquid goes into the aid fund, which automatically buys and burns HYPE. Now TradeXYZ has also started converting its portion of the fees into HYPE to expand new markets. In other words, the higher the trading volume on HIP-3, the more HYPE may benefit simultaneously from protocol buyback and burn and the demand brought by TradeXYZ's market expansion. Going forward, the main focus is whether TradeXYZ will continue to use fees to purchase HYPE and whether there is any substantial evidence for the independent operation rumors 截至2026年8月7日新加坡时间11:47，整个Crypto市场依然处于一个比较典型的“事件前压缩”阶段。目前全球加密货币总市值约2.28万亿美元，24小时整体变化接近于零；BTC Dominance维持在**56.6%**附近，说明资金仍然集中在BTC，大规模Alt Season暂时没有出现。今天最重要的宏观变量只有一个：今晚美国7月非农。市场预计新增就业大约8万人，失业率维持4.2%左右。更重要的是，现在市场已经重新开始讨论美联储是否需要继续加息，因此今晚数据对于美元、美债收益率以及Crypto风险偏好的影响都会明显放大。与此同时，中东局势再次推动油价上涨，也在增加通胀与利率的不确定性。所以我对今天行情的核心定义是：现在不是趋势行情，而是在等一个新的定价变量。一、BTC：64K依然是整个市场的生命线 BTC目前约64,260美元。过去24小时运行区间大约： 64,114—64,916美元而过去7天高点也只有大约： 64,933美元。这组数据其实非常有意思。因为它意味着： 65,000美元已经不仅仅是心理关口，而是短期真实筹码密集区。 BTC已经连续在这里试探，On-chain data sends a key signal Non-farm payroll data is about to be released, BTC is consolidating around 64,000, waiting for the next direction. MVRV Z-Score has entered a historical bottom range. The current MVRV Z-Score is about 2.1, close to the level after the 2022 FTX crash. This indicator bottomed at 0.8 in 2015, 1.5 in 2018, and 1.8 in 2022. Although it may not precisely reverse at the historical lowest point, the current level is enough to indicate that BTC, from an on-chain valuation perspective, has entered one of the rare "cheap zones" in history. An unignorable variable: long-term holders are accumulating. Glassnode data shows that net positions of long-term holders increased by about 36,000 BTC in the past two weeks, the largest monthly increase since Q4 2025. Historically, when long-term holders continuously accumulate above 60,000 USD, it often corresponds to a major cycle bottom. Short-term structure: repeated tests at 64,000 BTC has formed a clear chip accumulation between 63,800-64,500, with price repeatedly testing the 64,000 integer level on the 1-hour chart. The 64,500-65,000 range remains a key resistance zone, while 63,000-63,500 is the core support area below. Two scenarios for the non-farm data If the data is weak → rate hike expectations cool further → USD weakens → BTC is expected to test 65,000-65,500 upward; if the data is strong → strengthens the September rate hike logic → BTC faces pullback pressure, 63,000-63,500 will be tested again. No directional bets in the middle range, let the data speak. Trading space Above 64,000 is the 65,000-65,500 supply zone, below is the 63,000-63,500 demand zone. If a low-volume stabilization signal appears at 63,000-63,500, light long positions can be tried, stop loss at 62,000, target 65,000-65,500. After the non-farm data, if there is a volume breakout above 65,000 and it holds, longs can be chased, stop loss at 64,000, target 66,500-67,000. No action in the middle range. On-chain data says it’s cheap, long-term holders say buy, but the short-term structure has not yet given a breakout signal. Waiting for data, waiting for signals, waiting for direction. #Storage stocks plunge after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Earnings exceeded expectations, but stock prices fell. Western Digital and $SNDK both delivered solid results, but one was cautious in guidance and margin statements, and the other missed consensus on next quarter's revenue midpoint, causing both to plunge after hours. The Asian market was hit hard, with South Korea's KOSPI dragged down by semiconductors, $SKHYNIX crashing pre-market, and Samsung following suit. What happened to the promised AI memory supercycle? The numbers can no longer satisfy the market's appetite. The story of rising storage prices and HBM supply shortages has been told for over half a year, with stock prices multiplying several times from the bottom. If you tell me "demand is strong" again, the marginal effect has long dulled. The market has moved past the "true or false" stage and is now trading on "how long it can last." Instead, everyone is pondering one question: Is the HBM shortage a profit protection cushion for storage companies, or a hard constraint on AI chip shipments? Nvidia is already evaluating reducing Rubin Ultra's VRAM configuration—high-end HBM is insufficient, so orders are being cut to avoid shipment delays. This exposes the contradiction: while storage companies loudly claim "all capacity is sold out," downstream customers are forced to redesign because they can't get the parts. Tight supply and demand is a double-edged sword; if it cuts into AI shipments, the entire chain must be reassessed. Adding to this is the stampede effect of leveraged products. Before doubling down on Hynix, Southern repeatedly experienced single-day large drops, forcing leveraged long funds to liquidate, dragging the underlying stock into a spiral decline. Earnings didn't collapse, but positions did. How to handle this? SanDisk 1195 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks, look to the 1150-1180 buying zone; if it falls below 1080 with volume, exit immediately, no hesitation. Until the 1350-1400 resistance zone is breached, treat all rebounds as mere rebounds—don't overplay it. Hynix ADR is extremely volatile; after the pre-market flash crash, watch first, don't catch a falling knife. Wait for stabilization signals before acting; better to miss the rebound than to buy halfway up the mountain. Don't just focus on earnings reports; the pace of HBM capacity expansion and Nvidia GPU shipment data are the next indicators to watch. How much downstream can ship determines how much upstream can profit. The next pricing power in the storage market lies not with storage manufacturers but with AI chip makers. The logic hasn't changed, but the position has. Zoom out to the monthly chart; something that has risen twentyfold can afford to rest for two months without shame. Let those who need to run do so first, then you watch.The Crypto Asset Framework: 45 Tokens Across 6 Core Sectors 🧠 Instead of treating crypto as one giant market, try viewing it as six distinct sectors. Each one carries its own investment thesis and unique value drivers. That simple mindset shift can completely change how you build your portfolio. 🟢 DeFi — $AAVE • $MORPHO • $SYRUP • $UNI • $JUP 🔵 Layer 1 — $ETH • $SOL • $AVAX • $SUI • $ADA • $NEAR • $SEI • $APT • $DOT • $ATOM 🔴 Real World Assets (RWA) — $ONDO • $CFG • $ALGO • $XAUT • $PAXG • $PLUME • $PENDLE • $ENA • $EDEN • $RE 🟣 Layer 2 — $ARB • $OP • $ZK • $STRK • $POL • $MEGA • $CTSI • $LINEA • $BASE • $MANTA 🟠 AI & Decentralized Compute — $TAO • $RENDER • $AKT • $GEOD • $FET • $VIRTUAL • $VVV • $ICP • $GRASS • $KITE 🟡 Store of Value — $BTC • $BNB • $LTC • $XMR • $ZEC This is not a list of guaranteed winners. It's a mental model for understanding where capital tends to rotate during different phases of the market cycle. Here's the quick breakdown: DeFi: Lending, trading, and on-chain financial infrastructure. Layer 1s: The foundational blockchains powering entire ecosystems. RWA: Bridging traditional assets onto the blockchain. Layer 2s: Boosting performance and cutting transaction costs. AI: Where artificial intelligence meets decentralized infrastructure. Store of Value: Assets built for long-term preservation and network security. Diversifying across these sectors can help reduce concentration risk. But remember, every position should be backed by your own research and solid risk management. Nothing here is financial advice. Which sector takes up the biggest slice of your portfolio right now? 👇 #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction." In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once. Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence. The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive. Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation. At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes: 1. Employment data significantly strengthens The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes. 2. Employment data significantly weakens Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls. 3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation. Practical advice for ordinary traders ① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges. ② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle. ③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform. Personal market thoughts: 🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment 🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern 🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes 🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention 📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite 🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment 💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions: $JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP 🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track: $MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD 📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA 🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool: $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS 🚨 The macro showdown is now on the table—the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" stance is clashing head-on with weak employment data, and the direction of the next crypto rebound will be determined by the outcome of this battle. Global markets are at a critical juncture, with two forces tearing apart current policy expectations. On one hand, U.S. labor data continues to underperform expectations, and economic momentum is clearly cooling; on the other hand, several Federal Reserve officials still emphasize anti-inflation priority, refusing to ease rates even amid slowing growth. This divergence is forcing the market to reprice the interest rate path. 📉 If economic data continues to weaken, pressure for the Fed to turn dovish will quickly build. At that point, U.S. Treasury yields will decline, the dollar will weaken, and global liquidity will marginally improve—historically, these conditions have often been fertile ground for risk asset rebounds. For the crypto market, $BTC typically performs strongly in a looser financial conditions environment, with institutional funds tilting toward scarce assets. 🔄 If falling rates activate the on-chain ecosystem, $ETH could outperform the broader market in the next phase. The activity levels in DeFi, RWA, Layer 2 sectors are often highly correlated with liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, leading tokens in $SOL, $LINK, and the AI sector are also expected to attract incremental capital as risk appetite recovers. ⚠️ But this is not a one-sided bet. If inflation data unexpectedly rebounds, the Fed may be forced to maintain its current stance, with "higher for longer" continuing to suppress risk asset liquidity, putting pressure on both stock and crypto markets simultaneously. 🧠 Core judgment: Major market cycle turning points in history have almost always been accompanied by significant shifts in Fed policy paths. The current tension between the "hawkish stance vs. weak employment" is the most influential macro variable in today's market. The outcome of this showdown is very likely to become the key catalyst driving the next major moves in $BTC, $ETH, and the entire crypto market. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ $BTC $ETH On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction." In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once. Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence. The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive. Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation. At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes: 1. Employment data significantly strengthens The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes. 2. Employment data significantly weakens Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls. 3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation. Practical advice for ordinary traders ① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges. ② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle. ③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform. Personal market thoughts: 🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment 🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern 🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes 🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention 📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite 🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment 💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions: $JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP 🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track: $MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD 📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA 🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool: $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS Review of historical patterns in US stock market behavior after Nonfarm Payrolls releases Nonfarm Payrolls is not simply "good data = stock market rises, bad data = stock market falls"; the market direction is determined by the current Federal Reserve policy cycle; currently in a "high interest rate maintenance, cautious about restarting rate hikes" environment, the mainstream logic is: strong Nonfarm Payrolls are bearish for growth stocks, weak Nonfarm Payrolls theoretically bullish for growth stocks. 1. Four monetary policy cycles with completely opposite market logics (the biggest historical pattern) 1) Rate hike cycle / high interest rate stalemate phase (current environment in 2026, referencing 2022 and first half of 2026) ✅ Market mainline: Good news is bad news - Nonfarm Payrolls significantly stronger than expected: hot employment → sticky inflation → rising rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields surge Bearish for: Nasdaq, semiconductors, Micron, SOXL, KORU and other long-duration growth assets Historical typical case: June 5, 2026 Nonfarm far exceeded expectations Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10.26%, chip sector lost trillions in market cap in a single day. - Nonfarm Payrolls significantly weaker than expected: cooling employment → easing rate hike expectations, yields decline, growth stocks have room for recovery. 2) Rate cut expectation cycle (first half of 2024) Mainline: moderate economic slowdown favors Fed rate cuts - Nonfarm weak: bullish for tech growth; - Nonfarm extremely strong: market worries about too strong economic resilience, delaying rate cuts, tech stocks under short-term pressure. 3) Economic overheating boom, low inflation cycle (2017–early 2019) Logic returns to traditional understanding: strong employment means better corporate profits, better Nonfarm means easier stock market gains. 4) Recession panic cycle (2008, early 2020 pandemic) Mainline: fear of economic depression Worse Nonfarm, more market panic, stock market falls simultaneously; at this time "bad data is no longer bullish." 2. Classic intraday Nonfarm price action (repeated for decades, key to watch) 1. Impulse traps for bulls/bears, 15–30 minute reversals (most frequent trap) Algorithmic trading quickly pushes price up/down according to data direction; retail chases orders, then major funds sell against sentiment. Many historical cases: Nonfarm far below expectations, Nasdaq spikes instantly then steadily falls (bullish news realized and sold off). 2. Data component divergence, wide oscillation, long/short double sell-off New jobs, unemployment rate, and wages contradict each other. Example: new jobs very weak, but average hourly wages exceed expectations. Market first buys tech on "weak Nonfarm," then realizes wages push inflation, plunges again, triggering stop-loss sweeps. 👉 Practical tip: avoid heavy positions in first 5–15 minutes after data release. 3. Data meets expectations → narrow oscillation, return to original trend Nonfarm within expected range, rate expectations almost unchanged, short-term volatility limited, market continues pre-data main trend. 3. Sector differentiated historical performance (focus on semiconductors/storage) 1. Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX, storage chips (Micron, Hynix) Most sensitive to US Treasury yields, volatility much greater than Dow Jones. - Strong Nonfarm: semiconductor declines usually more than twice the market; - Weak Nonfarm: strongest rebound elasticity, but prone to "impulse then profit-taking." Leveraged ETFs (SOXL, KORU) amplify volatility further. 2. Dow Jones, high dividend value stocks Relatively resistant in rising rate environment; preferred for risk-averse capital rotation. 3. Korea KOSPI, SK Hynix, KORU linkage pattern US tech decline → Korean semiconductor pressured; When Nonfarm triggers USD strength, foreign capital tends to exit Korean market, doubly suppressing KORU. 4. Recent landmark historical cases (directly comparable to tonight's market environment) 1. June 5, 2026 | Nonfarm far exceeded expectations (172K vs expected 85K) Market immediately priced in rate hike restart: 10-year yield surged, Nasdaq plunged, SOX down 10%, Micron and storage stocks heavily hit. 👉 Reference: if tonight's Nonfarm significantly exceeds 83K, this script may replay. 2. Early July 2026 | Nonfarm far below expectations (57K) Theoretically bullish for growth, but extreme divergence occurred: Dow hit new highs, gold surged; Nasdaq and semiconductors continued falling. Important warning: Macro is only a valuation factor; if sector is in profit-taking phase, bullish data cannot reverse downtrend. 3. September 2024 | Nonfarm severely missed expectations US Treasury yields declined, Nasdaq and AI chips kept rallying, forming a continuous uptrend, a "consensus of expectations and sector trend." 5. Five practical trading rules from historical market summary (adapt to your trading instruments) 1. Don't just watch new jobs, wage growth > everything Fed currently most fears wage inflation; even if jobs weak, rising hourly wages remain hawkish, suppressing tech stocks. 2. Distinguish "short-term impulse" from "trend reversal" Most Nonfarm only causes intraday volatility, rarely changes mid-term sector trends. Storage chips mid-term depend on DRAM/NAND spot prices and AI capital expenditure. 3. Leveraged products (SOXL, KORU) must avoid holding positions betting on data Once rollercoaster moves occur, two-way stop losses easily cause continuous losses; leveraged losses huge in choppy markets. 4. Beware of "expectations priced in early" ADP small Nonfarm already weak, market priced in weak Nonfarm early; If data only slightly below expectations, easy to see "buy the rumor, sell the fact" spike and fall. 5. Strong/weak watershed observation method Don't directly bet on direction, wait 30 minutes to confirm price holds key support/resistance, then follow trend. 6. Concise summary Current high interest rate environment: ✅ Nonfarm far exceeds expectations → tech and storage under pressure ✅ Significantly below expectations → theoretically bullish for tech, but beware spike and fall ✅ Neutral data → choppy consolidation, best to wait and see If you need, I can combine tonight's 20:30 data with historical scenarios to immediately analyze response strategies for Micron, Hynix, KORU, SOXL. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ The probability of a rate hike in September has already exceeded half. The latest data from CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 56.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.5%. The market is betting real money that Waller will take action. The core variable driving this probability change comes from a report by the Financial Times. Insiders revealed that if the inflation data released in the coming weeks is strong and the market's expectations for rising borrowing costs also increase, Waller is prepared to raise rates at the September meeting. The report also disclosed that Waller admitted to communication mistakes early in his tenure: first, failing to repeatedly emphasize commitment to maintaining price stability, which led the market to doubt whether he took inflation seriously enough; second, not clearly separating the long-term Fed reforms from the immediate rate decisions, causing market confusion. But he will not abandon the path of streamlining forward guidance—he is ready to fix communication but will not hand the market a rate roadmap again. Waller believes that bond fund managers truly responsible for investing understand his approach, while the harshest criticism comes from commentators. In his view, last week's sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market was not a serious credibility crisis but the market adapting to new communication rules. He will give his first public speech at this year's Jackson Hole symposium to explain the logic behind this change. The market is being driven by a brand-new Fed communication style—not "listening to what the Fed says" but "watching how the data moves and guessing what the Fed will do." Pricing under this model is more prone to sharp swings. 56.Hormuz Deadlock Difficult to Resolve, Crypto Market Under Pressure and Volatile — In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Strategies on August 7 On August 7, 2026, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalated to a critical stage. Iran's parliament is reviewing a management draft that proposes banning US and Israeli vessels from passing and imposing fines up to 20% of cargo value. The US quickly rejected this and emphasized that the strait "should not have any obstacles." Both sides hold diametrically opposed positions, making substantive negotiation progress unlikely. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has been consolidating with shrinking volume near $64,500, while Ethereum's volatility is only around a dozen points, reflecting a typical geopolitical risk suppression pattern in the market. This article analyzes the core logic of current trading strategies based on the latest situation and technical analysis. 1. Strait of Hormuz: A Geopolitical Standoff with No Winner 1.1 Positions of Both Sides: Unyielding "Parallel Lines" The core conflict in US-Iran negotiations centers on control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament is reviewing a draft that explicitly bans US and Israeli vessels from passing, with violators facing fines up to 20% of cargo value. Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghezi stated that talks with Oman have entered the "final stage" and emphasized that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-war situation in February this year where passage was free of charge." Notably, Iran has established a "semi-official maritime toll system" requiring passage fees paid in RMB or cryptocurrency, with a VLCC oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels paying up to $2 million per passage. On the US side, former President Trump's statements reflect a typical "negotiation plus pressure" dual-track strategy. He claimed "the war with Iran will end soon" and "an agreement may be reached soon," while emphasizing "the strait is currently open to some extent, controlled by us," and revealed "unlimited arms supply." US Treasury Secretary Bassent even said "an agreement with Iran might be reached tomorrow," but as of August 7, this expectation remains unfulfilled. Core judgment: There is a fundamental contradiction in the statements of both sides. Iran pursues a paid passage system under sovereign jurisdiction, while the US insists on the principle of free navigation under international law. This structural conflict makes a short-term agreement highly unlikely. 1.2 Strait Status: Passage Volume Plummets to Nearly Zero According to Caixin data, as of August 3, only 4 vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were traceable. COSCO Shipping's platform shows that last week (July 27–August 2), total vessel passages in the Persian Gulf were 89, down about 12.75% week-on-week. This contrasts sharply with the normal daily passage of dozens of vessels, indicating that although the strait is "open to some extent," actual traffic has shrunk significantly. Regarding oil prices, Brent crude fell more than 5% consecutively in early August due to optimistic negotiation expectations, dropping below $80 per barrel from a previous peak of $100, a 20% decline. However, this drop mainly reflects short-term sentiment correction rather than a substantive easing of geopolitical risks. If negotiations break down again, oil prices could rebound at any time. 2. Crypto Market: Typical Pattern of Geopolitical Suppression 2.1 Bitcoin: $65,000 Resistance Forms an "Iron Ceiling" Historical data shows Bitcoin closed at $64,597 on August 5, currently fluctuating narrowly around $64,500. Technically, the $65,000 level has formed very strong resistance—multiple failed attempts have created a classic bearish divergence structure. Seasonal factors are also concerning. Bitcoin has closed higher in July for three consecutive years (2024, 2025, 2026), but August's historical median return is -7.87%, the worst single month of the year, with an average return of only -0.64%. Since 2022, August monthly candles have typically closed bearish. On the capital side, institutional demand has clearly cooled. Weekly net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs dropped sharply from a high of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a decline of 83%. This means institutional investors have not significantly sold off but their willingness to enter has greatly weakened. 2.2 Ethereum: Volatility Hits Recent Lows Ethereum's performance is even more subdued, currently fluctuating only about a dozen or twenty points around the $1900 range, almost "frozen." The $1930 resistance is also effective, with market participants choosing to wait amid major geopolitical uncertainty. Such extreme volume contraction often signals an imminent breakout. The breakout direction depends on geopolitical developments—if US-Iran conflict escalates, the probability of a downside break increases significantly; if an unexpected agreement is reached, it could trigger a short squeeze rebound. 3. Trading Strategies: Patiently Hold Shorts, Strict Risk Control on Longs 3.1 Short Strategy (Main Strategy) Bitcoin: Short on rebounds between $64,600–$65,000; conservative traders wait for $65,500–$66,000 zone. Stop loss near $66,500. First target $63,800–$63,200; if broken, look for $62,800–$62,500–$62,200. If further breakdown occurs, move stop loss to lock in profits. Ethereum: Short on rebounds between $1,915–$1,940; conservative entry near $1,970. Stop loss at $2,000. First target $1,850–$1,820; if broken, look for $1,800–$1,770. Core logic: Until the $65,000/$1,930 resistance is effectively broken, the bearish pattern remains. Geopolitical risk acts as a "ceiling," limiting rebound space. 3.2 Long Strategy (Auxiliary/Short-term) Bitcoin: Light long positions on pullbacks to $61,700–$62,200, stop loss at $61,000. Targets $63,000–$63,500; if broken, look for $64,500. Ethereum: Light long positions on pullbacks to $1,780–$1,800, stop loss at $1,750. Targets $1,830–$1,860; if broken, look for $1,900–$1,930. Key reminder: Long positions are only for short-term rebounds; do not heavily position before geopolitical clarity. It is recommended to set breakeven stops on shorts when possible; if stopped out, wait for better entry points. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK Issue 6 Wyckoff Theory Review of BNB Accumulation Zone from 2022 to the End of 2023 This is the BNB accumulation zone from 2022 to the end of 2023. I find this analysis very interesting because the early accumulation zone showed strong demand too early (which should be non-main force capital rushing to accumulate), so the main force had to use strong methods to shake out the market. Worth careful scrutiny are, for example, the false breakout at point 5, the rebound from points 6 to 8 attracting public funds to buy in, followed by the decline starting at point 10 triggering panic selling (point 10 is explained separately at the end of the post). From this, we can infer roughly which stage BTC is currently in. 1: Initial support PS, with obvious volume increase and a clear lower shadow, indicating demand entering at this price level. 2: Panic selling climax SC, this drop is an oversold market because it occurs right after PS. Since there is no obvious rebound after PS, it shows supply is still very strong, aiming to crush public sentiment and force selling. 3: This short bearish candle appears at the rebound high. Compared to the previous strong bullish candle, its volume does not change significantly but the candle range shrinks. This is an abnormal candle. Attention should be on whether supply expands during the price pullback; if not, it is a successful secondary test ST. At this time, the price has broken through the supply line (downtrend line), indicating the downward momentum has been largely consumed. The SC low will form a temporary effective support because demand enters at the SC low, making this a price demand zone and naturally a support level. 4: This candle is very small with a more obvious lower shadow compared to the overall picture, and volume shrinks, indicating market supply is exhausted. Since the bulls pushed the price back near the opening price with little effort, this is a good test result. However, the extent of the price pullback also reflects that the market buying is too strong, which is not good for the main force’s accumulation. 3-4: During the price pullback from the high, both candle range and volume decrease, indicating weak supply in the market. This is a short-term successful ST. Traders familiar with Price Action will notice the pullback forms a descending three-push wedge, so the subsequent upward breakout is natural. 5: This is an upthrust UT, a shakeout method by the main force. Through ST, it is found that the market showed strong demand too early, indicating other capital entities are scrambling for chips, which raises the main force’s cost. So the main force first breaks the resistance formed by AR, triggering market follow-up buying, then smashes the price down, successfully trapping these capital entities at a high level, and forces them to hand over chips at low prices through prolonged consolidation. 6: This is a small SC, indicating the main force’s shakeout method is effective, successfully forcing the public to hand over chips. This is the real secondary test of bear market supply. 7: Three consecutive highs, but this is a rebound market. If it were main force accumulation, this should not happen because this phenomenon shows demand in the market is still too strong, which can be seen from several pullbacks. 8: This medium bullish candle looks like a breakout but lacks volume confirmation, and the magnitude of each upward wave’s breakout is decreasing, indicating the main force has no intention to break upward. This is a trap set by the main force. 9: Breaks the low of 8, meaning the rise at 8 ends, and the market may go down to create a lower low. 10: This is an SC appearing in the consolidation zone, which consumes a large amount of supply. Readers can think about how supply comes. My views are written at the end. The next candle after 10 is a stopping action with larger volume and smaller fluctuation than 10, clearly the main force’s behavior absorbing a large number of sell orders, i.e., buying chips at low prices. 11: Rebound high with obvious volume expansion, indicating supply here, so price must go to the bottom to retest market supply. This is what the third stage of Wyckoff accumulation zone does. 12: This is a Spring with relatively higher volume, smaller candle shape than the previous one, a stopping action but closes below the support formed by lows at 6 and 10, a slight break of support waiting for ST. 13: This is the ST of 12, small candle shape and volume, appearing on the right side of the consolidation zone. Previous issues have mentioned this ST shape multiple times, and from the review, it is worth trading long. 13-14: Three consecutive highs with increasing volume, showing SOS. 14: This is also a UT, a false breakout of the resistance formed by the high at 11, but the follow-up after 14 is poor, not falling back to the SOS starting point, indicating this is only temporary supply quickly absorbed later. 14-15: Price breaks the resistance at the high of 11, forming JOC, characteristic of the fourth stage of the accumulation zone, indicating accumulation is about to end. 15: Price reaches the top of the large consolidation zone, where trapped positions exist, so encountering supply here is normal; just watch for pullbacks. 16: Lower shadow and low volume indicate insufficient supply. Price quickly absorbs supply from above resistance, showing demand far exceeds supply, a supply-demand characteristic at the end of accumulation, so this is roughly the final support LPS. 17: Price breaks resistance with increasing volume, and the subsequent three highs confirm the breakout’s authenticity. 10: The supply here refers to those who bought during the 6-8 rebound, i.e., the public chasing highs. When price breaks below the low at 9, they get trapped, and some will choose to stop loss when breaking the low, with stop loss orders entering the market as sell orders. As price keeps falling, other public sellers see this and also sell, causing price to compete downward in a loop. The main force will place many limit buy orders below, ultimately buying a large amount of chips at low prices. Please feel free to point out any flaws in this post.Bitcoin Treasury Model Cracks: Has the Institutional Buying Engine Stalled? As Bitcoin fund holdings plunged from 1.33 million BTC to 1.2 million BTC, the Coinbase Premium Index recorded -0.11, indicating a clear cooling of institutional demand in the U.S. Coinbase Premium Index: Measures the price difference between Coinbase in the U.S. and global exchanges (Binance), serving as an indicator to assess the buying strength of U.S. institutions and large capital in the spot market. (1) Treasury Corporate Funding Chain Collapse: Declining stock price premiums and difficulties in capital raising have caused the corporate "BTC additional buying positive feedback" mechanism to break down. (2) Not a large-scale sell-off, but a depletion of buying power: Exchange inflows (3600 BTC) are below average, indicating more of a cash wait-and-see stance rather than corporate capitulation. (3) Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and interest rate pressures continue to cause a drought in U.S. spot supply and demand. The funding ability of corporations and funds has collapsed, and the institutional buying engine has shut down and entered a stalled phase. A rebound in the Coinbase premium and a recovery in U.S. spot supply and demand must occur first for a structural upward reversal to be realized. Eve of Nonfarm Payrolls: Don't Get Washed Out by the Pin Spike The truest market backdrop right now can be summed up in four words: stock competition. US stock storage sector earnings disappoint but bounce back with a V-shape; in crypto, BTC consolidates sideways, altcoins rotate locally, and many coins lie flat—no new money is coming in, it's all old money inside the market cutting each other. Don't treat the Nonfarm Payrolls like a "blind box." It's just a catalyst that triggers the already accumulated long and short forces all at once; it won't create a trend out of thin air. Tomorrow night at 20:30, here’s how to interpret the three scenarios: 1. Data beats expectations strongly → rate cuts delayed, US Treasury yields rise, high-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and crypto are hit first. But sharp drops are often fakeouts; pin spikes are chip giveaways, not trend reversals. 2. Data disappoints significantly → rate cut expectations ignite, but if weak enough to trigger recession fears, it’s a "good news fully priced turns bad news" scenario, leading to a spike and plunge. Remember: good data doesn’t always mean a rise, bad data doesn’t always mean a fall. 3. Data meets expectations → most likely scenario, Nonfarm won’t stir waves, the market returns to earnings and sector rotation. US stocks rely on storage support, crypto watches BTC’s mood, altcoins continue local rotation. Three iron rules more important than guessing data: ① Don’t use large positions to bet on the volatility at the moment data is released. The first 30 minutes are mostly false moves to lure longs and shorts; wait for the market to digest noise before the real direction emerges. ② One month’s employment data can’t change the big cycle. Don’t mistake short-term volatility for trend reversal. ③ At this stage, stock picking is more important than watching the index. The index may be flat, but the main themes still run; the index may rebound, but weak stocks remain worthless. Personal market snapshot: · BTC — the main liquidity valve of the entire market; if it doesn’t show a stance, no one can make a big move. · ETH — chips are consolidating, slowly building strength, waiting for the wind. · SOL — a highly elastic L1 asset; when the market starts, it leads the charge. · TAO / WLD — AI narratives repeatedly re-flipped by capital; the story isn’t finished. · HYPE — the sentiment thermometer, used to sense market risk appetite. · DOGE / ZEC — retail sentiment amplifiers; their restlessness signals the market is entering the latter phase. Final note: Nonfarm changes the rhythm, not the trend. The real game-changer tomorrow night isn’t the moment data is released, but 1-2 hours after, when institutions finish adjusting positions and market sentiment settles, a new equilibrium will emerge. Hold your bullets tight; don’t get tricked by pin spikes into giving away chips. Wait for the true direction, trade the real trend. 📊 Market divergence is now an established fact, with capital orderly concentrating into leading assets; broad-based rallies will not return in the short term. Capital rotation is the main theme of the current market—this is a highly selective market. If you still expect all altcoins to rise simultaneously, it means your understanding of the current cycle is behind the actual flow of funds. Smart money is clearly choosing sides. 🟢 Absorbing liquidity: $BTC — still the absolute liquidity magnet $$JTO, $JELLY, $OPG, $BTCSLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP — recent inflows are strong, capital is concentrating on these targets 📉 Momentum weakening: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA — capital is withdrawing, short-term rebounds are weak 👀 Watchlist: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS — waiting for confirmation signals, no rush to enter 🧠 Macro perspective: 👑 $BTC remains the dominant liquidity driver of the entire market, setting the direction 🏛️ $ETH is gradually accumulating in the bottom area, with a solid base layer position ⚡ $SOL remains one of the most outstanding Layer 1 projects in this cycle 🤖 $TAO and $WLD continue to be driven by AI narratives, with ongoing capital follow-through 📈 $HYPE is an important proxy indicator measuring overall risk appetite 🛍️ $DOGE and $ZEC reflect changes in retail sentiment temperature 💡 Core insight: Every cycle repeats the same truth—the biggest winners always complete their positioning before the public notices. By the time the trend is visible to everyone, the first-mover advantage has already disappeared. 📌 Trading strategy: Track capital flows, wait for price action confirmation, and strictly enforce discipline. In a divergent market, being on the right trend is far more important than frequent trading. Patience is the scarcest alpha. The above is personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice; please conduct your own research before making decisions. In response to Alphabet's announcement on August 7, 2026, to issue $25 billion in bonds to address the AI arms race, an in-depth analysis is as follows: 1. Core Event Breakdown: Why does the "cash cow" also need to raise large-scale debt? 1. Fundraising scale and allocation: Alphabet's issuance of $25 billion in bonds is one of its largest financings in history. Despite having nearly $100 billion in cash on its balance sheet, facing the iteration of TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) self-developed chips and rapid expansion of global data centers, Google chose to "lock in liquidity" under the current relatively stable interest rate environment. 2. The "Prisoner's Dilemma" of capital expenditure: Google's single-quarter CapEx in 2026 has surged to the $12-15 billion range. This reflects the harsh reality among Big Tech: not investing in AI infrastructure means losing out in Search Gen Experience (SGE) and cloud service competition, but continuous investment faces pressure from eroding profit margins. --- 2. Macro and Secondary Market Impact Analysis 1. Shift in valuation logic: from "growth" to "return on investment (ROI)" Wall Street's attitude toward AI has shifted from "blind optimism" in 2024-2025 to "rigorous auditing" in 2026. Google's bond issuance has triggered market doubts about the speed of its AI monetization. * Positive impact: Demonstrates the company's absolute dominance ambition in AI, strengthening its moat in the AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) track. * Negative impact: Increased debt interest expenses, and if AI Cloud revenue growth is below 25%, $GOOGL may face valuation downgrades (De-rating). Ahead of today's U.S. market open, Google's stock price has slightly pressured, trading near 178.45 USDT. 2. Boost to AI chip and infrastructure chains Google's large-scale bond issuance implies order continuity. Beneficiaries include not only the self-developed chip chain but also decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN): *$NVDA and $AVGO: As Google's self-developed chip ecosystem partners, demand expectations remain high. *$AKT (Akash Network) and $IO: With rising costs of large model training, enterprise clients may turn to more cost-effective decentralized computing markets. 3. Mapping to the cryptocurrency market (AI sector) Google's moves usually serve as a "weather vane" for AI industry sentiment. According to real-time monitoring via OKX API, related tokens reacted as follows: 1. $FET (ASI): As a representative of the AI protocol layer, Google's bond issuance news is generally seen as an enhancement of "track certainty," rising against the trend by +4.2% today. 2. $TAO (Bittensor): Google's investment in distributed training indirectly validates the value of $TAO's attempt to build a global decentralized intelligent network, with 24h volatility rising to 13.5%. 3. $RNDR: Rendering and computing power demand are highly correlated with Big Tech's infrastructure expansion, making it the preferred choice for quantitative funds conducting "macro arbitrage." 4. Comprehensive judgment: risks and opportunities * Risk: liquidity siphoning effect Google's $25 billion bond issuance will absorb liquidity from the corporate bond market in the short term, potentially pushing up short-term credit spreads. For AI startups (and related small-cap tokens) relying on low-cost financing, the funding environment may tighten. * Opportunity: confirmation of AI valuation bottom When tech giants are willing to take on high debt to enter the market, it usually means AI is not a bubble but an "infrastructure restructuring." Strategy recommendation: Currently, $BTC is oscillating near 64,000. Stimulated by Google's bond issuance, the AI sector shows strong Alpha (excess returns). It is recommended to watch for breakout opportunities in $FET and $TAO. If $GOOGL's stock price stabilizes above 180 USDT after the bond issuance, it will further activate the upward potential of AI tokens. Conversely, if the bond market reacts negatively to this financing (with yields rising sharply), caution is advised regarding the pullback risk of high-beta assets. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 $MSTR $GOOGL $BTC On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction." In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once. Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence. The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive. Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation. At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes: 1. Employment data significantly strengthens The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes. 2. Employment data significantly weakens Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls. 3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation. Practical advice for ordinary traders ① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges. ② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle. ③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform. Personal market thoughts: 🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment 🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern 🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes 🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention 📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite 🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment 💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions: $JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP 🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track: $MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD 📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA 🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool: $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS $BTC Bitcoin's rise from around 57000 is either wave a or wave 1, currently forming a correction in wave b or wave 2. Yesterday's rebound failed to establish a trend, so it is advisable to wait until the correction ends before entering. Expecting a rise in wave c or wave 3; if the subsequent momentum successfully breaks the resistance above, it will confirm the start of wave 3, with a high probability of establishing a bottom structure. For now, just patiently wait for the enterprise signals. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Rebound or reversal? $57,000 is the new $16,000 — discussing the current market, bear market phase, and the logic of structural bottoms This round of rally is essentially a rebound driven by macro sentiment recovery, not a trend reversal. The long-term cycle is still in a consolidation and bottoming phase, and the second half of the bull market has not officially started. Nature of the rebound: macro sentiment recovery + technical double bottom support The core catalyst is the US-Iran ceasefire and expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. $CL oil prices have dropped sharply, easing inflation concerns and boosting risk appetite recovery. The FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged and the slight cooling of September rate hike expectations also provide a breathing room. From a technical perspective, $BTC formed a double bottom structure near $62,200, with a volume breakout above $64,000 on August 4 confirming short-term bullish dominance. However, this is more of a rebound repair within a consolidation range; there is still a large amount of trapped selling pressure above, rebound volume has not continued to expand, and the strength of the bulls' continuation is questionable. Whether the August closing price can hold above $63,000 is key to judging if the bear market has officially ended. 🔍 Has the bear market ended? — Signals are positive but not confirmed yet Currently, we see strong signals that the "bear market is entering its final stage," but not confirmation that the "bear market has ended." On the positive side, whales are buying more as prices fall. Firm buyers (mainly institutions) increased their Bitcoin holdings by 69% in Q1 2026, reaching 3.6 million BTC. Institutional Bitcoin purchases exceed miner production by 76%, creating a sustained supply gap. CryptoQuant data shows whale Bitcoin holdings have rebounded from about 2.87 million to about 3.06 million, and large Ethereum holders have reached a historic high. Historically, whales accumulating at lows is a typical feature of the latter half of a bear market. Long-term holders (LTH) hold a record 14.7 million BTC. During this bear market, despite price declines, long-term holders have not capitulated on a large scale — their cost basis is high, so they won’t sell at $50,000–$60,000 losses. 🎯 Current trading approach Core principle in a consolidation market: don’t chase rallies, don’t panic sell, wait for pullbacks, and always use stop-loss. BTC resistance is at $65,000–$65,500, support at $63,500–$64,000; $ETH resistance is at $1,885–$1,898, support at $1,838–$1,860. Prioritize longs on pullbacks to support holding steady; shorts only on resistance-level stagnation signals. Special reminder: August close is critical — closing above $63,000 signals bear market end; failure to hold means another drop. In the current low-volume consolidation, don’t be greedy, strictly use stop-loss. News disturbances are frequent; back-and-forth shakeouts are normal. Wait for August close to confirm direction. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction." In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once. Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence. The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive. Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation. At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes: 1. Employment data significantly strengthens The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes. 2. Employment data significantly weakens Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls. 3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation. Practical advice for ordinary traders ① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges. ② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle. ③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform. Personal market thoughts: 🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment 🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern 🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes 🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention 📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite 🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment 💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions: $JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP 🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track: $MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD 📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA 🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool: $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS The classic Friday dilemma is here again 😅 Should I hold onto my positions over the weekend or not? If I hold, I'm worried some big news might drop unexpectedly over the weekend and cause a gap down on Monday; if I close, I'm afraid of missing out on next week's market moves and giving up profits. Tonight there's also the added factor of the non-farm payrolls, making it even more complicated 😮‍💨 The simple rule I've learned over the past two years is this: if you can't hold a position, it means you were over-leveraged to begin with—so first reduce your position size to an amount that lets you "sleep well over the weekend," and the dilemma naturally disappears. What do you usually do over the weekend—close all positions or keep some open?Before the first test pile in the Riyadh desert reached bedrock, I already said: the white paper is just an architectural rendering; the real basement slab determines how tall this building can grow. Now Tether is partnering with First Data and BKN301 to tokenize real estate in Saudi Arabia—this is not a party for a subcontractor’s project report, but a covert engineering inspection before the concrete is poured. As an architect who has long been involved on construction sites, I never look at the sales office model. The essence of the Hadron platform is not a magic wand; it is a set of detailed drawings for prefabricated components. First Data is responsible for issuance and market operations, equivalent to the general contractor preparing the construction organization design: scheduling work segments, determining hoisting sequences, verifying floor clear heights. BKN301 handles technical integration and bank connections, which is the work of the MEP general contractor—fitting all plumbing, power, and ventilation ducts into the shafts while ensuring fire escape widths are not compromised. Without this level of detailed design, real estate tokenization is only fit to be displayed as a government model in a planning hall, unable to even pass wind tunnel tests. In my view, real estate tokenization replaces traditional cast-in-place construction with prefabrication. The old-school property ownership transfer is a wet process: mortar curing, rebar tying, formwork removal, and 28 days of strength development. On-chain tokenization is a dry process: prefabricated slabs fly in, sleeve connections are grouted, bolts tightened, and then it’s ready to open. But what prefabricated construction fears most is not the hoisting but hidden defects at the component factory—whether every slab’s rebar is placed fully according to the drawings, whether the grout is dense. The core of tokenization is the same: whether the underlying asset ownership is clear, cash flow continuous, and the liquidation path truly locked by the legal chain. If these three materials are falsified, no matter how beautiful the facade curtain wall is, it’s just decoration for an illegal building. Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” is an axonometric drawing, grandly designed. But no blueprint, however exquisite, compares to data from a static load test. The Mecca Clock Tower stands not because of the light strips in the renderings but because of hundreds of thousands of cubic meters of concrete and dense rebar cages. Tether’s current alliance somewhat implies building a “structural transfer floor”: replacing real estate, energy pipelines, and infrastructure with divisible digital beams and columns, supported by the same core tube for different functions. From a structural engineer’s perspective, this is clever—enlarging the pile cap, reserving sufficient load capacity, so future upward extensions only replace standard floors. But structural engineers also know the transfer floor is the most vulnerable to brittle failure. The node between modern financial systems and ancient land regimes concentrates stress; a slight misstep risks total collapse. First Data’s market operations role reminds me of a combined facade consultant and general leasing agent. It must ensure every token hangs precisely on the aluminum frame like a glass panel, enduring years of wind pressure and temperature changes. BKN301’s bank pipeline work is like building an underground utility tunnel: the water, electricity, and gas between fiat and tokens must be layered, compartmentalized, with sufficient inspection ports. Without bank-grade channels, RWA is just a bare tower not connected to municipal utilities—you can top out but cannot deliver. If expanded to energy and infrastructure assets in the future, my structural intuition is to first review the geological survey report. Saudi land systems, legal environments, and foreign investment access are all soft soil layers that must be marked on the map. I don’t doubt the speed of prefabricated construction; I doubt whether slope protection is adequate. Many projects boast about phases two and three clusters before the tower tops out, but once the foundation pit is excavated, adjacent buildings settle and crack, lawsuits silence the design institutes collectively. This current combination feels exactly like a deep foundation pit project: Hadron is the cutoff wall, First Data the tie beam, BKN301 the support trestle. When the three parties mesh properly, earthworks can officially start. But I will quietly watch the entire monitoring process at the pit edge—settlement observation points, axial force meters, pore pressure gauges—data is always more honest than model photos at press conferences. If the rebar in the load-bearing walls is still being tied and the concrete hasn’t fully cured, rushing to announce the building’s topping out will ultimately be ordered to stop at structural inspection. Load tests don’t lie. #ImpactCycle·MonthlyAndAbove #IndustryTrends·RWA #Tether·SaudiArabia·RealEstateTokenization A demand-side signal easily overshadowed by market trends: storage price increases have already been passed on to consumers—Apple has raised trade-in discounts for several iPhone, iPad, and Mac models by up to 25%, essentially using old device recycling to offset material costs. Meanwhile, institutional data shows that the global share of high-end smartphones reached a historic high of 29% in the first half of the year. The combination of premiumization and price hikes indicates that terminal manufacturers have the ability to pass costs downstream. This confirms demand for the storage supply chain rather than signaling demand peak. Focus on position sizing, and don't get swayed by single-day stock price movements.On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction." In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once. Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence. The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive. Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation. At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes: 1. Employment data significantly strengthens The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes. 2. Employment data significantly weakens Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls. 3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation. Practical advice for ordinary traders ① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges. ② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle. ③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform. Personal market thoughts: 🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment 🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern 🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes 🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention 📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite 🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment 💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions: $JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP 🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track: $MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD 📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA 🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool: $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS At 8:30 PM tomorrow night, the July non-farm payroll report will be officially released. This is the most significant data point since the Fed's policy meeting. Whether rates will be cut in September and by how many basis points will depend entirely on the quality of the report. Previously, the ADP small nonfarm payrolls had clearly fallen short of expectations, and the market began trading early on the logic of employment cooling, but the large nonfarm payrolls were the real decision. With the strengthening of nonfarm payrolls, rate cut expectations will shrink instantly, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and high-valuation AI concepts and storage sectors will be hit first. Growth stocks like $MU and $SNDK are prone to selling pressure, and $BTC will also be weighed down by expectations of tighter liquidity. Nonfarm payrolls have weakened significantly, rate cut expectations are heating up, and US Treasury yields are falling. $BTC and $ETH will have a breathing room, but caution is needed to avoid poor data triggering recession fears, which could lead to broad declines across the board. Ideally, the data will cool down moderately, neither hot nor lukewarm, with the market continuing the current consolidation pattern and $BTC repeatedly accumulating near $64,345. Setting aside nonfarm payrolls, the storage sector is currently in a period of intense volatility following the financial report falsification. $SNDK has broken out of a deep V-shaped reversal, but the shadow of downward expectations hasn't fully lifted. Focus on whether the key support for $MU can hold. Holding on to the sector's differentiation and recovery means entering the mid-term valuation digestion phase if it effectively breaks down. Do not treat oversold rebounds as new rally waves. $BTC As the liquidity hub of the crypto market, volatility before and after the nonfarm payroll launch will inevitably increase. $ETH is trading around $1,900, accumulating chips; $SOL is waiting for direction selection near $72. A quick comment on an industry chain positioning update. Ofilm Holdings has taken control of Zhongke Daojing, positioning itself in the glass-based advanced packaging track. Why is this worth noting? As process nodes become increasingly expensive and difficult to advance, advanced packaging has become another path to continue improving computing density, and glass-based solutions are the next-generation approach heavily bet on in this area. This kind of layout may not show immediate results, but it is a bet on the future way computing power will be supported. The AI story has never been limited to just Nvidia; looking a bit more upstream and downstream often reveals things others haven't priced in yet. Let's watch and see.Complete Preview of US July Nonfarm Payroll Data (Beijing Time August 7, 20:30 Release ⚠️All projections are for market logic reference only and do not constitute any investment advice I. Basic Information 1. Release Time: Tonight 20:30 (Beijing Daylight Time) 2. Core Market Expectations - Nonfarm Payroll Additions: Expected 83,000, Previous 57,000 - Unemployment Rate: Expected 4.2% (unchanged) - Average Hourly Earnings MoM: 0.3%; YoY: 3.5% 3. Leading Signal (ADP Small Nonfarm) only 44,000, significantly weak; market generally expects employment to cool down slowly. 4. Core Significance: The first major employment report after the Federal Reserve's late July meeting, directly pricing in the probability of a September Fed rate hike or hold, with a strong impact on tech, memory chips, SOXL, KORU, and other highly sensitive sectors. II. Three Scenarios + Corresponding Asset Performance (Focus on Micron MU, SK Hynix, KORU) Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected (>120,000, wages rising) [Hawkish] Logic: Overheated employment, rising inflation pressure, market raises September rate hike probability, US Treasury yields rise. ✅ Asset Reaction: USD strengthens, US Treasury yields rise ❌ Negative: Nasdaq, semiconductors, memory sectors (Micron, SK Hynix under pressure), SOXL, KORU leveraged ETFs prone to sharp declines Operation Reminder: High-valuation growth sectors under pressure, avoid chasing leveraged products in the short term. Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker than expected (<50,000, unemployment rises) [Dovish] Logic: Employment clearly cooling, rate hike expectations quickly ease, yields decline. ✅ Positive: Growth stocks, semiconductors, memory sectors, SOXL, KORU have rebound potential ⚠️ Important Trap: Refer to June historical market! Even if data is cold, if funds use the good news to take profits at highs, there can be a scenario of falling rates but chip prices dropping, a high-low switch; avoid blindly going long. Scenario 3: Data near expectations (70,000~95,000, neutral) Market Interpretation: Employment slows moderately, status quo maintained, no major change in rate expectations. Market Performance: Initial rapid stop-loss sweeps (both long and short hit), then return to original sector themes (memory sector continues to follow spot prices and corporate earnings sentiment). Main Feature: High volatility, many false breakouts, not suitable for heavy positions immediately after open. III. Exclusive Tips for Your Key Holdings 1. Memory Chips (Micron MU, SK Hynix, SNDK SanDisk) High duration growth stocks, most sensitive to US Treasury yields; Strong nonfarm = direct pressure; weak nonfarm theoretically positive but need to observe if funds are willing to return to chip sector. 2. KORU (3x leveraged long Korea KOSPI) Highly tied to SK Hynix, dual volatility: Korean semiconductor sentiment + US macro interest rates, volatility will significantly increase on nonfarm night, high risk of leverage decay + bidirectional volatility. 3. SOXL 3x Semiconductor ETF Nonfarm night often shows "opening spike then reversal," avoid heavy bets on a single direction. IV. Practical Trading Discipline (Must-Read for Nonfarm) 1. Liquidity disorder 15 minutes before and after data release, many spikes and false breakouts, avoid immediate chasing, wait 15~30 minutes for trend to form; 2. Leveraged ETFs (SOXL/KORU) strictly prohibit holding overnight without stop loss to gamble on data; 3. Do not bet on a single direction, market often moves "expectation priced in, then reverses on release"; 4. Besides new jobs, wage data and previous value revisions often have greater impact than main data, do not focus on a single number. V. Simple Monitoring Sequence 20:30 Data release → First check wages + employment revisions → Observe 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuations → Then watch Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX reaction → Finally transmit to Micron, Hynix, KORU. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Uniswap launches a token issuance platform, where the $UNI mechanism locks the initial liquidity of new assets directly in the v4 pool. The funding flow from initial issuance to the secondary market is reconnected, and liquidity is no longer scattered across external routes. If the new asset continues to generate high-frequency turnover, both fee accumulation and pool depth will rise simultaneously. Once subsequent tokens lack transactions causing the pool to dry up, the on-chain daily turnover rate and accumulated fund size will directly reflect this decline. #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？Hong Kong stocks in the large model concept collectively soared today, MINIMAX rose nearly 25%, Zhipu rose over 17%, US stocks AI hit new highs, and gold also hit new highs, but only crypto remained completely still. Some people see others rising elsewhere and firmly believe "$BTC should catch up," then go all in waiting for the wind. The trend has its biases; money flows to the strongest narratives — right now that place is AI and storage, not crypto. It's normal to feel itchy watching others make money, but others' games are not your games. Holding onto the table you understand is more important than chasing a market that doesn't belong to you. CLARITY bill delayed until September, has the biggest positive catalyst for the crypto market fallen through? This morning's news: The U.S. Senate has decided to postpone the vote on the CLARITY bill until September. This bill was originally scheduled for the last window before the August 10 summer recess, but now it has been pushed to the fall. Actual impact on $BTC and $ETH Short term: Bearish. Prices won’t move much during the day but a weak trend will persist for a day or two. Hedge funds might use this as a reason to reduce some positions. But no crash, because the real variable is tonight’s 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls. Mid term: Neutral. The bill is postponed to September, not canceled. If it miraculously passes in September, the reaction will be bigger than if it passed in August because market expectations have already been priced in at the lowest. But the probability of passing within 2026 continues to decline. Long term: The fundamentals remain unchanged. The CLARITY bill is a catalyst, not the foundation. The foundation consists of ETFs, mining companies, institutional allocations—these structural variables remain unchanged. The delay of the CLARITY bill won’t cause the crypto industry to collapse; it will just stay in the gray area for another year. The bigger hedge comes from tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls. The CLARITY bill is a structural long-term positive, while tonight’s Nonfarm is a short-term macro driver. When a long-term negative and a short-term variable appear simultaneously, the market usually digests the short-term variable first, then slowly absorbs the long-term negative. BTC was trading sideways around 64400 during the session, ETH around 1900, with no crash, indicating the market has treated the CLARITY bill delay as known information and did not trigger panic. #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Relative strength for crypto insiders: In the past 24 hours, $BTC has basically been flat, $ETH slightly up, and $SOL leading the decline by about 1%, making SOL the weakest among the three. Combined with a mild shift to positive funding rates, low open interest, and a slight discount of Coinbase versus Binance, this looks more like rotation of existing funds among the legs rather than new inflows. The combination of low OI and low volatility usually means the direction is waiting for an external trigger—the nonfarm payroll report tonight is the top candidate. Data won't play along with you; before the direction is confirmed, position yourself according to the strength ranking.$BTC $SKHYNIX $ETH Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls: The Sweet Spot for US Stocks and Gold I mentioned last night that gold wouldn't move so quickly, hope I didn't mislead you. At 20:30 tonight, the US will release the July nonfarm payroll report. The current mainstream market expectation is about 80,000 new nonfarm jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Last month's nonfarm was only 57,000, and April and May employment figures were revised down by a combined 74,000. So I think what's more important than the exact number is whether US employment is cooling down or rapidly deteriorating. This nonfarm report is very important. The market is currently facing a tricky combination: employment is cooling, but inflation hasn't truly been resolved. The Federal Reserve's current federal funds target range remains 3.50%—3.75%. The Fed has clearly stated that inflation remains above the 2% target, with supply shocks like energy being a significant factor. Recently, oil prices have risen again, pushing inflation risks back up. As of Thursday, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to about 4.67%. Reuters reported that the market had priced in about a 57% chance of a rate hike in September. So tonight's nonfarm report is really about whether the Fed still has room to raise rates. Leading indicators have already shown some weakness. Job openings in June fell to 7.359 million. Although hiring has picked up somewhat, the US job market is increasingly resembling a "Low Hire, Low Fire" scenario. Companies aren't hiring much, but there are no large-scale layoffs either. The latest initial jobless claims are only 199,000, with layoffs down to a two-year low. So I currently lean toward US employment gradually losing momentum. Three possible scenarios I'm just a student in the market like everyone else, so I can only offer possibilities, not definitive scripts. First scenario: Nonfarm clearly exceeds 100,000—120,000 If employment is significantly stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate holding around 4.2% and wages also strong, the market will reinforce the narrative: Strong employment → Fed has room to hike → US Treasury yields rise → Dollar strengthens → Risk asset valuations come under pressure. In this case, I think the hardest hit will be high-valuation tech, software, semiconductors, and high-beta growth stocks in US equities. Of course, this includes your favorite storage stocks, $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, etc. Crypto will also likely come under pressure. Because BTC is increasingly like a global liquidity asset. What really affects it most are real interest rates and the dollar. Rising Treasury yields are uncomfortable for both BTC and altcoins. Gold may see a noticeable pullback. A similar situation occurred in June this year: strong employment data pushed up rate hike expectations, and gold fell about 3% that day. Second scenario: Nonfarm around 50,000—90,000 This is the result I think the market prefers. Employment continues to cool but doesn't collapse. This means no recession, but the Fed's need to hike rates further diminishes. If wages don't unexpectedly rise and unemployment holds at 4.2%—4.3%, then Treasury yields and the dollar have room to fall. This environment is actually comfortable for all three asset classes. US stocks: positive for growth and tech stock valuations Crypto: liquidity pressure eases, BTC, ETH, and high-beta assets likely to rebound Gold: real rates and the dollar decline, while macro uncertainty remains, making it a relatively ideal combination In other words, what the market wants to see tonight is a nonfarm report that's just a little disappointing. Third scenario: Near zero or even negative growth This might not be a big positive. If nonfarm suddenly approaches zero or turns negative, and unemployment jumps above 4.4%, the market narrative shifts from: "Fed doesn't need to hike" to "Is the US heading into recession?" At this stage, Treasury yields may fall rapidly, and gold usually gets strong support. But US stocks and crypto may not fare well. Because expectations of rate cuts only solve valuation issues, not declining corporate profits or economic recession. So after very poor data, an interesting pattern often emerges: US stocks rise first due to falling rate expectations; then fall as the market starts pricing in recession. Crypto may be even more sensitive. Because in true risk-off phases, BTC often deleverages alongside the Nasdaq and risk assets in the short term. Don't just focus on the nonfarm number tonight Nonfarm → prior revisions → unemployment rate → wages → Treasury yields Especially prior revisions. One of last month's biggest warnings was the combined 74,000 downward revision to April and May employment data. If tonight's nonfarm is 80,000, seemingly meeting expectations, but the previous two months are revised down by 70-80,000, then the actual implication might be more dovish than a simple below-expectation number. Ultimately, all these data points boil down to one indicator: how the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields move. Because for tonight's trading, nonfarm is just the first layer. Nonfarm affects the Fed, the Fed affects Treasury yields, Treasury yields affect the dollar and global liquidity, and finally that transmits to US stocks, gold, and crypto. So tonight I think the best outcome is employment continues to cool, but the US economy doesn't break down. That is currently the most comfortable sweet spot for US stocks, crypto, and gold The $CORE community is flooded with a hot article titled "CORE is the severely underestimated 'biological son' of Bitcoin," a well-packaged BTCFi narrative attracting many retail investors to stop and take notice. Many newcomers are immediately tempted after reading it, firmly believing that now is the golden bottom-buying opportunity. Unpacking this marketing blind box, beneath the glossy promotional shell lie layers of carefully designed logical traps. First layer of packaging: Relying on Bitcoin's hash power, it has Bitcoin-level network security. The truth is a typical word game. Miner hash power delegation purely chases CORE token rewards, which is just a short-term business with no permanent binding. When profits decline, hash power can collectively withdraw at any time. Bitcoin's hash power does not provide security protection for CORE; the two public chains are independent. The so-called hash power moat is just a label for external hype. Many promotions deliberately confuse concepts, misleading investors to think that by leveraging BTC hash power, they have the same level of security. Second layer of packaging: CORE is Bitcoin's "biological son," enjoying native bloodline dividends. This is the easiest cognitive misdirection to trap newcomers. Bitcoin Core (the official Bitcoin client) and CoreDAO $CORE have no connection whatsoever, nor any intersection with Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin's early development team. The project is just an independent public chain, borrowing Bitcoin miner resources to tell a story, forcibly riding on Bitcoin's lineage to create associations. The native Bitcoin community has long been skeptical of such hash power-riding narratives; the "biological son" is a marketing persona fabricated from start to finish. Third layer of packaging: Fully compatible with EVM, Ethereum DeFi projects can easily migrate, and the ecosystem will soon explode. EVM compatibility has long been a basic threshold for public chains and is not an exclusive advantage. Whether developers migrate depends mainly on on-chain liquidity and real user base, not just code compatibility. The reality is very clear: since launch, there is a lack of flagship native applications, on-chain active users are scarce, and transaction fee revenue remains persistently low. Having an entry ticket does not equate to retaining developers and incremental capital. Fourth layer of packaging: BTCFi is a trillion-dollar blue ocean, and CORE will steadily share a huge market dividend. The BTCFi track is already fiercely competitive, with Bitcoin Layer 2s, various BTC staking protocols, and multiple competing public chains all vying for position. A vast blue ocean track does not mean any single project can naturally get a slice of the pie. Relying solely on continuously refreshed narratives without a steady influx of funds and developers makes it difficult to break through intense competition. At the bottom of the blind box, the trump card all tweets deliberately avoid: The token supply is huge, with linear unlocking over decades, long-term selling pressure always present; the token price has crashed over 99% from its peak, with massive high-level trapped positions piled up above. The ecosystem operation heavily depends on token inflation subsidies, with weak endogenous profitability on-chain. Once market heat cools, the reward-driven participation model faces huge pressure, liquidity is weak, and large capital inflows and outflows are very difficult. There is also a long-lasting brainwashing view: long-term bottom consolidation = value depression, bound to surge sooner or later. The harsh reality is: many tokens have been stuck in low-level oscillation for years, never breaking out into a trending market. The bottom is just a price level and cannot be directly equated with opportunity. Market reversals require multiple conditions resonating: ecosystem landing, incremental capital, and sector tailwinds; there is no rule that consolidation must lead to a rise. Objectively speaking, the Satoshi Plus consensus can be seen as a technical attempt in the BTC fusion direction and can be continuously observed. But it is crucial to distinguish: Technical exploration ≠ investment value; long-term narrative vision ≠ real landing results. The crypto marketing cycle repeats: constantly creating new concepts, building new personas, using distant future imagination to support current prices. When old narratives fade, new stories immediately appear. The essence is to stabilize current holders and attract outside capital. Interactive question: A. The Bitcoin biological son narrative has long-term potential, and a market reversal is expected. B. Purely carefully packaged marketing rhetoric is unlikely to break the long-term pressured pattern. ⚠️This is only a market opinion exchange and discussion, not any investment or trading advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; stay away from contract leverage and control positions rationally. Following a solid piece of hard news that's easy to overlook. TSMC and Yang Ming Chiao Tung University have developed a single-layer molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) top-gate transistor, with results published in Nature Electronics. The direction is to break through the physical limits of Moore's Law. In plain language: as silicon materials near their limits, whoever first achieves mass production with new materials will hold the pricing power for the next decade. This kind of fundamental breakthrough won't affect the short-term K-line, but it determines the ceiling for the entire computing power and storage chain in three to five years. The real big narrative often starts emerging from the lab—protect your ammunition and watch slowly.Against the backdrop of capital concentrating on computing power infrastructure, Firmus completed a $2 billion financing round, pushing its valuation up to $10.5 billion. The core issue lies in whether the massive capital expenditure can be converted into cash flow on schedule and support the continued expansion of long positions. From the market facts, Firmus was valued at $5.5 billion in April this year. This time, through a $2 billion equity financing, the valuation nearly doubled to $10.5 billion. Investors in this round include $NVDA and Coatue Management, while also attracting Blackstone's $BX fund and Jane Street. Its business is based on the Nvidia DSX AI Factory reference architecture signed at the end of June, delivering cloud services to the Southgate project in the Asia-Pacific and Australia, as well as the Indonesia project, through hardware procurement. From the transmission chain perspective, the order of driving factors is: primary market hardware procurement reconfirming $NVDA's supply chain performance, Wall Street market makers and private equity giants raising their position risk appetite, and inflation and capital occupation risks caused by the long construction cycle of computing power centers. The valuation doubling from $5.5 billion to $10.5 billion within a few months means funds are shifting from secondary market observation to primary infrastructure leverage, temporarily increasing the overall risk appetite of the AI sector. In the bullish scenario, the trigger condition is the smooth commissioning of the Project Southgate in the Asia-Pacific region and the Indonesia computing power node, converting into cloud service cash flow income. Variables to watch include equipment delivery cycles and cloud service subscription rates. If the supply chain delivery is unobstructed and computing power leasing demand is strong, this monetization pace will confirm the lock-up logic of institutional funds like $BX, driving related hardware suppliers and infrastructure sector positions to increase; if delivery is delayed, this bullish logic immediately fails. In the bearish scenario, the trigger condition is that regional computing power center construction encounters supply chain bottlenecks or compliance review obstacles, causing the $2 billion capital expenditure to fail to generate positive returns within the scheduled period. Variables to observe include regional regulatory policy trends and the squeeze on operating profit margins from high utility costs. If capital returns fall below expectations, the massive expenditure will become a balance sheet burden, triggering phased stop-loss decoupling of Wall Street institutions from computing power infrastructure positions; if funds quickly complete a second refinancing, this downside warning is temporarily lifted. When market tolerance for the computing power Capex cycle changes, the failure condition depends on whether the Capex squeeze effect of Asia-Pacific computing power facility construction triggers broader inflation expectations and interest rate revaluation. Once high construction costs cannot be covered by downstream subscription revenue, institutional long positions will face deleveraging pressure. The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the actual delivery nodes of the hardware procurement supply chain and the position changes of major participating institutions in the public market. #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Trump imposed tariffs and minimum import prices on imported polysilicon and derivatives under Section 232, nominally to protect the domestic solar and semiconductor supply chains. From a data perspective, there are two transmission effects: first, the cost of domestic components in the U.S. will be raised, which is a short-term benefit for domestic production capacity and a disadvantage for downstream sectors relying on imports; second, the global polysilicon trade flow will be redistributed, but since Chinese manufacturers' exports to the U.S. already account for a very low proportion, the direct impact is limited. What really needs to be watched is whether this will spill over to a broader list of semiconductor materials. When it comes to tariffs, looking at the details of the provisions is always more important than just the headline.$BTC $ETH $SNDK On Thursday, the three major US stock indices showed mixed results, with the memory chip sector becoming the hardest-hit area. SanDisk and Western Digital both plunged, while SpaceX, under the pressure of unlocking 100 billion yuan, closed higher against the market trend. The core message is simple: the market's tolerance for earnings has hit zero. SanDisk fell nearly 7 points, Western Digital plunged 13 points. Earnings beating expectations is standard; the market wants to exceed expectations even more. SanDisk's revenue guidance is weak, gross margins showing signs of peaking, Goldman Sachs directly lowered its target price, and Western Digital is the same. Earnings must be perfect enough Even the slightest flaw triggers capital injections. SpaceX instead rose 6%, announcing its own natural gas power plant and large battery array to power semiconductor facilities. The market interpreted this as a long-term cost control signal. Short covering pushed the stock price higher. The storage sector has been hit continuously, which is not good news for the crypto market. BTC's recent performance has already shown the problem. Whenever there is any movement in U.S. tech stocks, the crypto world becomes tense. Storage is one of the core components of AI hardware. The sector's continued pressure indicates that the AI narrative is cooling down Capital is shifting from highly elastic assets toward more certain directions. This means BTC lacks clear macro catalysts in the short term. The 61,000 to 62,000 range will likely require further grinding. The market's scrutiny of performance has become extremely strict. Beating expectations is standard; meeting expectations or weakening means sell-off. In this environment, incremental funds rarely flow back into risk assets on a large scale unless the Fed sends a clear easing signal. Right now, it's not about who can rise $ZBT Although there was no loss this time, mistakes were still made. There are two reasons for the mistakes this time: first, refusing to set a stop loss led to being stuck with over 40 points. The second reason is that during strong upward momentum, I assumed it was a take-profit pullback point. This time, I opened a short at 0.152 with a stop loss at 0.16. But I couldn't bring myself to cut the loss. I was stuck overnight, luckily the position was small, as the main force was aggressively dumping. The strategy this time was to open at 0.152 and take profit at 0.132. The trading logic this time: starting from around 0.1, the first upward phase began, then it reached a consolidation area, and after breaking through the range for the second time, it started rising again. The proper short position should have been at 0.152 or 0.16, or even during the second pullback, but I assumed and placed the order wrongly, resulting in being stuck. Mistake: still refusing to set a stop loss! Shorting during strong upward momentum. I always arrogantly think that after a big rise, it will fall, that after rising so high, it will top out and short. In reality, when the altcoin season arrives or when facing a strong main player, a rally lasting one or two weeks is not a problem. Wishful thinking has once again caused me harm. Now many people are starting to say: "The biggest negative for SPCX has already passed." Really? On the contrary, I think the focus now should not be on the unlocking, but on when the 910 million shares will truly start to be realized. Many people always assume that if there is no sell-off on the unlocking day, it means the negative impact has landed. But the reality is, there is no rule that those who get the shares must sell on the first day. If they don't sell today, they can sell tomorrow; if not this week, they can sell next week. What really affects the price is never the unlocking itself, but when someone starts to lead in realizing profits. As long as a new negative appears in the market, these shares could become the fuse that breaks the sentiment, and once panic spreads, selling pressure will only increase. Previously, a single "I think so." already made many chase above $120. So I have never changed my view; around 105 is still the level I am watching. The price is still at 114 now, so I am not in a hurry to cut losses. Because there are not many people in the market who can hold long-term; most are still watching. When the profit-making effect disappears, those watching are likely the next batch to sell. Do you think $SPCX's biggest test has already passed, or is it just beginning now? I believe the real risk for $SPCX is not over yet; unlocking is just the start and does not mean selling pressure has been fully released. My basis: This time, 910 million shares enter circulation. Unlocking only allows shares to be sold; it does not mean everyone will sell immediately. Many funds will wait for better prices, news, or sentiment to realize profits. Once a new negative appears, selling pressure may be released all at once. When trading, don't just look at the words "unlocking landed," but also observe whether the shares have truly been realized and whether market sentiment has changed. Often, the real decline does not happen on the day the negative is announced, but after everyone thinks the negative is over. My principle is simple: first look at the shares, then the sentiment, and finally the story. Talking about a narrative-driven trend, let's watch as it unfolds. The Hong Kong stock market's large model concept took off directly today, with MINIMAX rising nearly 25% and Zhipu up over 17%—this wave is not isolated. The US stock market's AI hit new highs earlier, and valuations in the primary market are also pushing up, with the secondary market just following the lead. The logic is that capital has recognized "AI as the strongest narrative in this cycle," spreading from computing power and storage all the way to applications and model layers. The implication for crypto is very direct: the same batch of risk-tolerant money is now prioritizing AI. If crypto wants a piece of the pie, it must first prove it has a new narrative. Those who understand know—money is very honest.A couple of days ago, I flipped my storage position from short to long and increased my position size. Today, US storage stocks pulled back, and some are waiting to see a joke. But what I look at is the fundamentals, not the day's sentiment: Elon Musk said memory demand growth far exceeds supply, Winbond Electronics' Q2 net profit surged 256 times, and customers are already scrambling to book capacity for 2030. Supply is so tight that capacity needs to be locked in four years in advance; this is not something a single day's stock price can disprove. The meaning of a low-frequency large bet is—if the thesis isn't broken, don't average down or add on a pullback, just hold. $MU, are you switching directions or still holding last week's short position? Crypto has cooled off after a solid start to the month. Traders are sitting on their hands, and the reason is simple: everyone is waiting for clearer rules out of Washington. The CLARITY Act is the main story right now. It’s meant to give digital assets a more defined regulatory home in the U.S., but Senate delays and disagreements have left the market in limbo. Institutions especially seem content to wait rather than push hard into new positions until the picture gets clearer. Markets hate unce The latest customs data is worth noting: China's integrated circuit exports reached $38.7 billion in July, with a cumulative $216 billion from January to July, nearly doubling year-on-year (+99.5%). Behind this figure is the real global demand for memory and logic chips, not just sentiment. In the same week, Nvidia reportedly cut HBM capacity for Rubin Ultra, and Winbond revealed customers have already booked production capacity through 2030—supply side is calling out shortages, export side is ramping up, both pointing to the same thing. $MU pulled back today in the US stock market, more due to position-level squeeze than a fundamental shift. What’s your take on which stage this memory cycle is currently at? $BTC short-term trend, current price is around 64,126. From the moving averages: WMA5: 64,126.6 WMA10: 64,184.9 WMA20: 64,216.0 The current price is basically hugging WMA5 but below WMA10 and WMA20, indicating the short-term has not turned strong again and is in a weak rebound consolidation. Key levels: Upper resistance: 64,400—64,600 Strong resistance: around 65,000 Lower support: around 64,086 Stronger support: around 63,880 The chart shows a rise to 65,026 followed by a pullback, indicating obvious selling pressure above 65,000. Although there was a rebound afterward, the highs are gradually decreasing, showing a weak short-term structure. RSI is also important: RSI6: 32.06, close to short-term oversold RSI12: 41.29, weak RSI24: 47.97, neutral to weak This indicates the short-term drop is not light, a small rebound may occur, but the trend has not reversed yet. To truly turn strong, it must at least retake 64,400—64,600 and have WMA5 cross above WMA10 and WMA20. $BTC Good morning $SPCX workers, it seems my view last night was correct. So what if shares are unlocked? If a company has a very promising future, it will definitely attract capital investment, and the price will still rise. The stock market is not a casino; it is long-term value investing. Time will prove everything, and short-term speculators will inevitably be washed out. Of course, those who play short-term are gamblers, like me, an insignificant small citizen. I admit I am a gambler; I can't do long-term value investing, so I can only play short-term speculation. Five or ten years is too long; I only earn day by day. I believe most people like me come to the crypto world to get rich quickly. So what? Only the results matter, not the process. I am also a US stock trader; life is a gamble everywhere. Although it has risen a bit, short-term traders still need to control their positions and never put themselves in a low margin situation. Make sure to sleep at night, don’t stay up late. Losing some money is okay; health is the most important. After Western Digital released its earnings report, although the overall performance exceeded expectations, the stock price plunged sharply due to a cautious outlook and profit margin statements for the next quarter; SanDisk also retreated after surpassing earnings expectations because the midpoint of its revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter was below market consensus, causing the storage sector to collectively come under pressure. The pressure spread to Asian markets, with South Korea's KOSPI sharply falling intraday dragged down by semiconductor weights, SK Hynix experiencing a flash crash in pre-market trading, and Samsung Electronics also under pressure. Meanwhile, Nvidia is reportedly evaluating reducing some memory configurations of Rubin Ultra to cope with tight supply of high-end HBM. The market has begun to revisit the discussion: Is the tight supply and demand in storage a positive factor supporting prices, or a constraint that may limit AI chip shipments and sector valuations? Coupled with multiple single-day sharp declines in leveraged products like Southern's double-long SK Hynix, the AI storage market is transitioning from a "supply shortage narrative" to a phase of testing whether high expectations can be fulfilled.

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