Orbit Post Sitemap
Currently, the Perp DEX is caught in a liquidity divergence characterized by high stagnant funds and declining turnover rates. Although stock derivatives have absorbed some incremental volume, they cannot independently drive the overall ecosystem's market-making revenue out of the trough.
The entire network's Perp DEX 30-day trading volume has contracted 63.4% from its peak to $498.2 billion, directly undermining the annualized yield logic of the market-making treasury. Hyperliquid HLP's 30-day yield has decayed to 0.018%, and the liquidity pool size has correspondingly shrunk 21.8% to $215 million, proving that without high-frequency trading fees, market makers are facing liquidity clearance pressure with yields approaching zero.
The order of drivers behind the capital structure changes is: on-chain risk appetite contraction, asset class migration toward traditional U.S. stocks, and declining market-making capital efficiency. Hyperliquid's cross-chain bridge funds have counter-trended, growing 2.9% to $5.94 billion, indicating that capital remains within the ecosystem but has shifted into a low-turnover wait-and-see mode.
Traditional stock contract trading shows a partial compensatory effect. Trade.xyz's daily average trading volume increased 32.1% to $5.134 billion, with stock contracts rising to 62.7% of the total, successfully offsetting nearly 45% of Hyperliquid's crypto contract volume decline. However, due to trading friction and market depth differences, this increment has yet to translate into a full recovery of market-making yields across the network.
The next upward scenario is based on strong synchronization between native crypto asset volatility and stock tokenization. If stock contract daily average volume remains above $5.5 billion and on-chain crypto perpetual 7-day turnover rate rebounds by over 30%, HLP yields will re-anchor above single digits, attracting the $5.9 billion capital currently dormant in the cross-chain bridge back into the market-making pool.
The downward scenario is triggered jointly by regulatory friction and continued turnover freeze. If U.S. stock tokenized derivatives face regulatory scrutiny causing Trade.xyz's trading share to fall below 50%, and Hyperliquid's crypto daily average volume further drops below $2 billion, HLP's loss-avoidance liquidation protection mechanism will trigger a secondary contraction of secondary liquidity.
Regardless of market developments, if the HLP liquidity pool size falls below $180 million and cross-chain bridge funds experience net outflows exceeding 1% for three consecutive days, the premise of stable dormant capital will fail, leading to a comprehensive net capital outflow from the trading ecosystem.
In the next 7 days, the core focus is whether Trade.xyz's stock contract trading share can stabilize above 60%, and whether Hyperliquid's crypto contract daily average volume can stop falling and return to the $3.5 billion level.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温When the ADP data came out, gold went wild. On August 5th, spot gold surged rapidly, with intraday gains reaching as high as 4.48%, consecutively breaking through the 4100 and 4200 levels. On August 6, it continued to surge, climbing back above $4,300 and setting a new seven-week high. The market is betting real money on one thing: weak employment→ cooling interest rate hike expectations→ benefiting non-interest-bearing assets. The logic is smooth, and the script is clear. What about BTC? Not a single move is needed, and it's still at 64,000 yuan. On August 7, Bitcoin fell intraday to $64,000, down more than 1% from the daily high. ETH fell below $1,900, with a total market cap of $2.285 trillion, down 0.3% in 24 hours. Following the same macro script, gold performed a bull market, BTC staged a sideways consolidation drama. Why? Some say: because the employment data isn't that bad. Indeed. ADP was only 44,000, far below the expected 75,000. But initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for the third consecutive week, with only 199,000. The job market is weak, but not crashing. Some say: because the Fed is still hawkish. That's true. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September remains around 55%. Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook said that if inflation does not continue to cool, she is prepared to take policy action. Good news and negative factors cancel each other out, leaving BTC unable to find direction. But this is only the surface. The real reason lies in three breaking points. Disconnect 1: Coinbase's premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days. From May 19 until now, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been above the market for 80 consecutive daysCurrently, BTC continues to maintain a narrow sideways range, and the market has entered a typical pre-event price compression phase.
From the order flow structure perspective, there is continuous absorption on the downside, making it temporarily difficult for bears to drive a trend decline; meanwhile, there is a lack of sufficient incremental spot buying on the upside, and the price has yet to effectively break through $65,000. Coupled with the upcoming US nonfarm payroll report tonight, market funds have not clearly pre-positioned for a direction, so BTC remains in a narrow range for low-efficiency trading over the long term.
As the sideways period extends, above $65,000 there is a continuous accumulation of bear stop losses, breakout long positions, forced bear liquidations, and trend algorithm buy orders, thus this area has formed obvious buy-side liquidity.
At the same time, below $63,800 there is an accumulation of bull stop losses, breakout short positions, forced bull liquidations, and trend algorithm sell orders, forming corresponding sell-side liquidity.
Therefore, the truly important question now is no longer to predict in advance whether BTC will ultimately go up or down, but which side’s liquidity will be cleared first, and whether the market will accept a new price area after the clearance.
The US July nonfarm payroll data released at 20:30 tonight will be the most important short-term catalyst. The market currently expects about 80,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate around 4.2%. Since the market is still trading on the Fed’s next policy direction, data that significantly deviates from expectations could quickly change the pricing of the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets.
On the funding side, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for four consecutive trading days recently, totaling about $764 million. This is one of the key reasons why BTC’s recent multiple pullbacks have not resulted in sustained breakdowns. However, the continuous ETF inflows have not pushed the price to directly break through $65,000, indicating that the new demand mainly serves to absorb sell orders and provide support, but is not yet sufficient to fully digest the supply above.
Therefore, going forward, I will focus on the spot trading volume and price acceptance after a breakout, rather than just observing contract trading volume.
If BTC breaks through $65,000 mainly driven by a rapid increase in open interest and bear liquidations, but spot volume does not significantly expand in sync and the price quickly falls back below $65,000, I would be more inclined to judge this as a liquidity sweep on the upside.
Conversely, if BTC breaks above $65,000 with volume expansion, then retraces with reduced volume and can stabilize above that area, it indicates the market is beginning to accept higher prices, and ETF funds and macro catalysts have truly converted into trend buying.
The same logic applies downward. If BTC falls below $63,800 but quickly recovers, it is more likely a bull liquidity sweep; only a volume-driven break below $63,800 followed by a failed rebound to retake that level can confirm a valid downside breakout.
At this stage, the most important strategy remains to wait for price to complete breakout and retest confirmation, rather than preemptively betting on the next trend direction within the range. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ There has been a lot of recent discussion about Uniswap acting as a launchpad. But this really can't be seen simply as DEX adding a token issuance feature.
After Pools.trade launched on Robinhood Chain, Uniswap effectively took a step upstream in the new token trading chain. Previously, a new project had to issue tokens elsewhere first to gather the initial users, and only when trading demand arose would Uniswap come in later to handle the swaps. Now, it wants to keep the entire chain of token creation, price formation, liquidity establishment, and subsequent trading within its own ecosystem.
The data is indeed impressive. On the first day of launch, Uniswap v4 on Robinhood Chain had a trading volume of about $73.6 million, while Uniswap v4 on Ethereum mainnet was around $47.2 million during the same period. By August 6, Pools.trade's cumulative trading volume had already exceeded $150 million.
The change in token issuance volume is even more striking. On August 4, there were only 457 new tokens issued within the Uniswap ecosystem, but on August 5, it surged to nearly 12,000. In the same period, Flap had about 6,500, Pons about 2,200, and Pons v2 about 2,500. Uniswap's daily volume surpassed the combined total of these platforms.
This speed is actually not surprising. Uniswap already has the trading infrastructure and liquidity, which is its core strength, something other launchpads can't match.
Regarding the specific mechanism, Pools.trade currently offers two methods: Crowd Launch and Instant Launch. After new tokens are issued, they go directly into Uniswap v4 liquidity pools with liquidity permanently locked, featuring automatic reinvestment and anti-sniping measures. The platform itself does not charge launchpad fees, mainly relying on the 0.25% LP fee from v4 pools.
This fee rate deserves a special mention. Many similar launchpads charge around 1% trading fees, so Pools.trade effectively reduces this cost to a quarter. This doesn't necessarily mean project teams earn more, but for high-frequency traders of new tokens, the fee difference is directly noticeable—the more frequent the trading, the greater the advantage.
So what Uniswap really wants to capture is not just the token issuance tool as a product, but the first wave of traffic after new assets emerge. Previously, launchpads were responsible for creating new assets and hype, while Uniswap handled the trading volume afterward. Now Uniswap positions itself at the entry point, so once a new token emerges, creation, initial liquidity, and secondary trading could all stay within its ecosystem.
This also ties into the old question about UNI. No matter how big Uniswap's business grows, the market always asks: what does this trading volume have to do with UNI?
This question still can't be avoided. A launchpad's explosive volume on day one doesn't mean UNI immediately gains a new valuation logic. But as Uniswap extends from simply handling trades to asset issuance, price discovery, and traffic entry, the trading chain the protocol covers is lengthening.
Especially starting December 2025, Uniswap protocol fees will be integrated into the UNI burn mechanism. If Pools.trade can continuously generate new assets and keep subsequent trading and liquidity within the Uniswap system, what really matters won't be how many tokens were issued, but how much sustained trading volume and liquidity these new assets ultimately accumulate, and whether protocol fees can further expand.
Out of 12,000 new tokens a day, only a few will survive. But that's the nature of the launchpad business—many projects fail, which is not scary. The platform needs a continuous flow of a few assets that achieve significant trading scale. As long as this cycle keeps turning, Uniswap gains what used to be the first entry point belonging to other launchpads.
It's still early to say UNI has opened a new narrative. But the direction has changed. Uniswap has moved from "others issue tokens, I handle trading" to "tokens can also start here." If this step ultimately converts issuance traffic into long-term trading volume, then UNI faces not just a short-term hype but an expansion of Uniswap's commercial boundaries. #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ Today is a special day. Unknowingly, it's already the beginning of autumn. Put on autumn fat at the start of autumn. What are the customs of your place? Nonfarm payroll data released at 20:30 Beijing time; current market expectations are as follows: • Nonfarm payrolls: +83,000, previous 57,000 • Unemployment rate: 4.2%, previous 4.2% • Average hourly earnings: 0.3% month-on-month, 3.5% year-on-year Leading signal: ADP small nonfarm payrolls 44,000, far below expectations Core data pricing priorities: Wages > new jobs > unemployment rate > previous revision Only trading one thing: timing of Fed rate cuts • Data hot → Delayed rate cuts, tightening liquidity • Cold data → Early rate cuts, Loose liquidity affects cryptocurrencies ($BTC/$ETH) 1. Far exceeding expectations (hawkish 📉) > 120,000, rising wages US Treasuries and US dollar strengthen, crypto sector under pressure and retreats 2. Meets expectations (neutral ⚖️) 60,000-100,000 RMB No new policy drive, short-term sharp spikes, then returns to original trend, no major rally 3. Far below expectations (dovish 📈) < 40,000, salary declines Easing expectations heat up, risk assets rebound for US stocks ($QQQ Nasdaq/Technology/Storage) 1. Far exceeding expectations (hawkish 📉) > 120,000, rising wages and rising interest rates suppressing valuations; Nasdaq, AI, semiconductors, and storage stocks suffered heavy losses; Financial value stocks are relatively resilient 2. Meets expectations (neutral ⚖️) 60,000-100,000 Short-term fluctuating back and forth, unchanged original main theme, sector differentiation continues 3. which was far below expectationsDoes $ETH ETH still have a moat? ⚔️
⚡ New generation public chains like Solana, Avalanche, and Sui are aggressively encroaching on Ethereum's territory with extremely high cost-effectiveness and user stickiness. The SOL/$ETH exchange rate has surged over 300% in the past year, with real money flowing in for "chain replacement."
🧐 Ethereum's narrative is stuck in an awkward middle ground: it's called the "world computer," but after L2's boom, the mainnet has become quiet; it's called a "store of value," but inflation restarting undermines this claim; it's called the "Web3 base layer," but the market favors high-performance modular public chains more.
📉 DEX trading volume share: Ethereum mainnet DEX daily trading volume's market share has dropped from 65% a year ago to 42% now. The largest trading pairs on Uniswap V3 are no longer $ETH/stablecoin but market-making between stablecoins, showing a significant decline in speculative activity.
📌 However! Ethereum's developer ecosystem and node decentralization remain the strongest among all public chains. This is its last and strongest moat. As long as developers are present, the ecosystem has seeds for revival.
✅ $ETH positives: Developer count still ranks first, follow-up upgrades to EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) are ongoing, and the long-term technical roadmap is clear.
❌ Negatives: Short-term funds are heavily diverted to competitors, the "Ethereum killers" are arriving albeit late, and the narrative faces severe challenges.
#Fed hawkish signals heating up, can weak employment outweigh inflation? #Uniswap launching, can UNI open a new narrative? #CLARITY vote may be postponed to September, ethical disagreements unresolved
Please share!SanDisk fell 8% after hours, Western Digital dropped 11% after hours.
The better the performance, the harder the fall.
The entire storage sector collapsed—SK Hynix dropped more than 10% intraday, Samsung fell over 6%, Kioxia plummeted more than 10%.
Those holding storage stocks were completely stunned.
"372% growth, isn’t that enough?"
Not enough. Far from it.
Where’s the problem? Two words: expectations.
SanDisk’s next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $10.55 billion, while the market expectation is $11.15 billion.
A difference of less than 6%, yet the stock price crashed 9%.
Western Digital is even more unfair—next quarter guidance midpoint is $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts’ expectation of $4.06 billion. But it still fell 15% after hours.
Goldman Sachs summed it up in one sentence: "The core contradiction currently facing the storage industry is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but that market expectations have excessively outpaced reality."
In plain terms—
It’s not that storage is failing, it’s that market expectations for storage have reached the point where "you must be perfect to the extent that even guidance has to be significantly revised upward."
SanDisk has risen 460% this year, Western Digital 200%.
All the positives have long been priced in.
But what really alerted me was another piece of news.
NVIDIA is evaluating reducing the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra.
What does that mean?
NVIDIA’s next-generation AI flagship GPU originally planned to be equipped with 1TB of HBM4e 12hi memory. Now, due to extremely tight HBM supply, they are considering switching to the 8hi version or even downgrading to HBM4.
Video memory capacity may be cut by one-third.
The world’s strongest AI chip company is forced to "downgrade" proactively.
This is not a lack of demand. This is a supply bottleneck so severe that even NVIDIA can’t handle it.
This leads to a deeper contradiction—
Is supply shortage a boon or a constraint?
In the past two years, the market treated "supply shortage" as the biggest positive—rising prices, soaring gross margins, explosive earnings growth.
But now the script has changed.
Supply shortage → insufficient HBM capacity → NVIDIA forced to downgrade → AI chip performance discounted → cloud providers need to buy more GPUs → higher costs → AI infrastructure efficiency declines.
Each link in this transmission chain erodes the underlying logic of the "AI storage bull market."
What’s even more painful—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have already sold out their HBM capacity through 2027.
Customers ultimately receive only 60%-70% of what they initially applied for.
Demand is still rising, but capacity is locked until 2027.
This is not a "good day of supply shortage," this is a "prisoner’s dilemma strangled by capacity."
The divergence is turning into a rift.
Citigroup says: low inventory, supply-demand fulfillment rate dropped from 70% to 50%, prices can still rise.
Morgan Stanley says: memory contract prices peak in Q4.
Renqiao Asset says: the storage industry has likely already peaked.
Who is right or wrong?
I don’t know.
But I know one thing—
When everyone in an industry believes "supply shortage = perpetual price increases," the real risk is never in supply and demand itself—
But in the fact that "everyone believes it."
Back to investing.
If you ask me: will I continue to invest in storage now?
My answer is: yes, but no longer blindly buying.
AI’s demand for storage is real, structural, and long-term. SanDisk has signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion, and more than half of 2027 supply already locked in.
This is not a bubble. This is real, hard demand.
But stock price fluctuations never depend on "whether demand is real"—they depend on "whether expectations can get higher."
When expectations are already so high that "372% growth is still not enough"—
every penny you earn is a bet against the market’s most extreme optimism.
$XSNDK $WDC $XSKHY #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ BTC is consolidating near $64,500, with the market waiting for tonight's non-farm payroll data to provide direction.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US July non-farm employment report will be released. The previous value was 57,000, and the forecast is 80,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from before.
There is significant divergence among institutions forecasting the non-farm data: Vanguard expects only 10,000, while Nomura Securities forecasts 130,000.
Is this data critical?
June's non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000, showing signs of weakness. More importantly, the ADP "small non-farm" increased by only 44,000, far below expectations. Goldman Sachs pointed out a historical pattern: in recent years, July non-farm payrolls have frequently fallen short of expectations. Some institutions also suggest the data might show a combination of non-farm payrolls below expectations (around 50,000) and an unemployment rate above expectations (above 4.3%).
Three scenarios and their impact on BTC:
① Data significantly below expectations (below 60,000): rate cut expectations heat up, the dollar weakens, risk appetite rises, and BTC has room to rebound. After June's non-farm surprise, BTC rose from $61,500 to nearly $64,000. If a similar scenario repeats, the $65,000 resistance level might be broken.
② If data meets expectations (around 80,000): the market will digest the news with volatility and unclear direction. BTC will likely continue to consolidate between $64,000 and $65,000.
③ Data significantly exceeds expectations (over 130,000): the dollar strengthens, yields rise, rate hike expectations return, and BTC faces short-term pressure. The $64,000 support may not hold.
Tonight's data will break the deadlock. However, it should be noted that after the short-term impact of the non-farm data, the true determinant of the medium-term direction remains the July CPI and the Federal Reserve's September decision. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $BTC $SNDK
In the short term, weak employment data can temporarily suppress rate hike expectations, but it is difficult to completely outweigh inflation risks and the increasingly hawkish signals within the Fed. The policy path still heavily depends on subsequent inflation data (especially core indicators) and whether they continue to cool down.
Current background (as of early August 2026)
Interest rates: The federal funds target rate range remains at 3.50%-3.75%, unchanged multiple times since the end of 2025. The July FOMC maintained the rate with a 9-3 vote, but three regional Fed presidents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) explicitly dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike, marking the highest number of same-direction dissents since 2016, indicating significant internal hawkish pressure.
Inflation: Has been above the 2% target for over 5 consecutive years. June PCE year-over-year was about 3.7%, core PCE about 3.3%; previously, energy prices rose due to Middle East conflicts pushing overall inflation up, but June saw a decline (CPI month-over-month turned negative), though core inflation remains sticky. Some officials noted that AI-related capital expenditures are also pushing up prices of some goods and services. Chair Warsh repeatedly emphasized "there is only one 2% target, no soft target," and "63 months above target cannot be resolved by a single month of mild data."
Employment: The labor market is generally stable but shows signs of slowing. June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 (far below expectations, with the previous two months revised down by about 74,000 combined), unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% (partly due to lower labor force participation). July ADP private sector added only 44,000 (below expectations), official July nonfarm report to be released on August 7, with market expectations around 70,000-80,000 and unemployment rate steady near 4.2%. Wage growth is moderate (about 3.5% year-over-year), characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, not a main driver of inflation.
Several officials (including Cook, Waller, Logan, etc.) recently stated that inflation risks currently outweigh employment risks, and the labor market is roughly balanced, providing room to prioritize price stability. Cook explicitly said in a speech on August 5 that if no sustained disinflation signs are seen, he is ready to support rate hikes.
Can weak employment outweigh inflation?
Effects it can have: Soft employment data reduces concerns about "economic overheating," suppresses near-term rate hike probabilities, and gives the Fed more time to observe. The weak June nonfarm significantly lowered rate hike bets at that time. If July and subsequent data continue to show weak hiring and a slight rise in unemployment, while inflation does not rebound, the market may shift to "holding steady for longer" or even discuss easing space. The current rate level is already somewhat restrictive; further weakening employment increases the risk of "over-tightening."
Reasons it is difficult to outweigh inflation:
Inflation stickiness and expectation risks: Core inflation remains significantly above target; energy/supply shocks and AI investments may continue. Long-term inflation expectations are relatively anchored but have risen somewhat short-term. Officials worry "the longer inflation stays above target, the more it becomes embedded in wages and pricing behavior."
Fed priority shift: New Chair Warsh emphasizes price stability first; dot plots and official statements have turned more hawkish. Most views hold that employment is not the main current source of inflation, so weak employment alone is insufficient to reverse the judgment that "inflation risk is greater."
Data dependence and internal divergence: Policy is highly data-dependent. If subsequent CPI/PCE (especially core) rises again, even with weak employment, rate hikes (in September or later) remain an option; conversely, if inflation continues to cool, weak employment strengthens the case for holding steady or even easing. Market pricing for September hikes has previously risen significantly (sometimes over 50%-60%) but will fluctuate with data.
Summary: Weak employment is a "brake" rather than a "turn signal." It can delay or reduce rate hike pressure, but in an environment where inflation stubbornly exceeds the target and Fed hawkish voices are rising, it cannot alone outweigh inflation considerations. Attention should be paid to today's (August 7) July nonfarm, subsequent inflation data, and officials' statements at events like Jackson Hole. The final path remains "data-driven," not dominated by a single indicator.After BitMEX, BitMart is also entering the countdown
An exchange that has operated for 11 years and another for nearly 9 years have recently announced their exits one after another.
BitMEX will close its exchange on September 23; BitMart has also started an orderly shutdown, stopping spot, contract, and other trading services on August 26, with plans to officially cease platform operations on January 31 next year.
What’s even more interesting is how influential BitMEX was back in the day. The perpetual contract, a product now offered by almost all major exchanges, was pioneered by BitMEX. However, Reuters revealed that its market share had dropped below 0.01% before its exit.
Clearly, the exchange business in the crypto world is becoming increasingly concentrated.
Having history, brand, and product innovation no longer guarantees staying at the table. Liquidity, users, compliance, products, and costs will ultimately determine who can survive.
Projects will change, and exchanges will change too.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Talking about some solid stuff, those who know, know. $SPCX is up 6% today against the trend, and behind it is a bigger narrative: SpaceX is building its own gas power plant and a massive battery array for the semiconductor giant Terafab in Texas, generating and storing its own electricity. This is no longer just about making rockets; Musk is moving the entire "energy—chip—AI" chain into his own backyard. With vertical integration to this extent, the valuation anchor changes. Don't just focus on the daily ups and downs; watch how this chain develops.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Is ETH's moat still intact? ⚔️
⚡ New generation public chains like Solana, Avalanche, and Sui are aggressively eroding Ethereum's territory with extremely high cost-effectiveness and user stickiness. The SOL/$ETH exchange rate has surged over 300% in the past year, with real money flowing in for "chain swaps."
🧐 Ethereum's narrative is stuck in an awkward middle ground: it's called the "world computer," but after L2's boom, the mainnet has become quiet; it's called a "store of value," but inflation restarting undermines this claim; it's called the "Web3 base layer," but the market favors high-performance modular public chains more.
📉 DEX trading volume share: Ethereum mainnet DEX daily trading volume's market share has dropped from 65% a year ago to 42% now. The largest trading pairs on Uniswap V3 are no longer $ETH/stablecoin but market-making between stablecoins, indicating a significant decline in speculative activity.
📌 However! Ethereum's developer ecosystem and node decentralization remain the strongest among all public chains. This is its last and most solid moat. As long as developers are present, the ecosystem holds seeds of revival.
✅ $ETH positives: Developer count still ranks first, follow-up upgrades to EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) are ongoing, and the long-term technical roadmap is clear.
❌ Negatives: Short-term funds are heavily diverted to competitors, the "Ethereum killers" are arriving albeit late, and the narrative faces severe challenges.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Western Union connects stablecoins, Solana, and Visa payment scenarios, which is more practical than many public chain narratives.
It's not just about issuing another stablecoin. What Western Union really wants to do is integrate on-chain dollars into its original remittance network: user receipts, offline cashing, merchant spending, cross-border settlement, all trying to avoid being stuck by bank business days and correspondent bank chains.
What stablecoins have always lacked is not on-chain transfer speed, but the "last mile."
You can receive funds in 3 seconds, but if the other party can't get local cash, swipe a card, or pass compliance, then it's just a number in a wallet. Western Union's strength lies in its existing global outlets and risk control network, now using stablecoins as the backend settlement layer.
The real breakthrough is not shouting Web3, but making users not need to know they are using blockchain at all.
#WesternUnionStablecoinCardLaunch, Visa payment scenarios further advance
Looking forward to practical payment applications landing in every life scenario
Crossing over VISA payments is too expensive Tonight at 20:30, the non-farm payroll will be stuck around $64,300. At times like this, the last thing I want to do is predict the data in advance and then use the answers to fit the market chart. Let's first see what the market is really doing right now. As of 15:49, BTCUSDT was about $64,342.6, down about 0.73% in the past 24 hours, with a high of $64,971 and a low of $64,111. In other words, before the non-farm payroll market emerged, the Bitcoin market had not yet emerged from a particularly clear unilateral rally. Tonight's real highlight is at 20:30. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the July jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET on August 7, which is 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The last June nonfarm payroll was only 57,000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. But I think what's more interesting now than guessing the non-farm payroll numbers is whether the market is betting in advance. From 4:00 AM to 3:00 PM today, BTC open interest dropped from about 105,710 to 105,565, a change of only about -0.14%. Meanwhile, in the past 12 hours, active buying volume was about 15,031 BTC, and active selling volume was about 15,925 BTC, with sellers holding only a slight advantage; The latest funding rate is approximately +0.004611. So at least so far, I haven't seen any particularly obvious "the whole market betting on one side in advance." It feels more like the bulls and bears are waiting for tonight's data to give an excuse. So how do you view the non-farm farm market after it comes out? I don't keep an eye on it myselfCrypto trading volume shrinks by 63%, HLP yields drop to zero, stock demand may struggle to support Perp DEX downturn
According to TradingBeats monitoring, Perp DEX has exited its previous high turnover phase. The total market trading volume in the past 7 days has decreased by about 13.7% week-on-week. The current 30-day trading volume is approximately $498.2 billion, down 63.4% from the peak of about $1.36 trillion in October last year.
The most obvious decline is in crypto perpetuals. Comparing two four-day windows from June 22 to 25 (peak storage) and August 3 to 6, Hyperliquid crypto contract daily trading volume dropped from $5.988 billion to $3.058 billion, nearly halving; Lighter fell from $1.666 billion to $1.111 billion, a 33.3% decrease;
Additionally, GRVT's weekly average trading volume is about 59.1% lower than its previous daily average, dYdX is down about 43.2%; during the same period, Perp weekly trading volume on Ethereum and Solana decreased by 26.8% and 22.5%, respectively.
The contraction in trading demand has already impacted market-making yields. Hyperliquid HLP size dropped 21.8% from June to about $215 million, Lighter LLP fell 19.9% to $80.62 million; among them, HLP's 30-day yield is only about 0.018%, nearly zero. Along with the shrinking capital scale, strategy treasury returns have almost stalled.
It is reported that well-known crypto market maker Wintermute also obtained a US broker license today, preparing to enter Wall Street market-making business.
However, the issue is not a complete capital flight from the platform. During the same period, Hyperliquid Bridge's capital stock actually increased from $5.773 billion to $5.940 billion, a 2.9% growth; Lighter Bridge also increased by about 2.0%. Capital remains, and the current challenge facing Perp DEX is more about insufficient trading demand rather than pure liquidity outflow.
A minority of expanding demand comes from traditional assets. During the same period, Trade.xyz's daily trading volume rose from $3.888 billion to $5.134 billion, a 32.1% increase, offsetting about 42.5% of Hyperliquid crypto contract trading decline. Among crypto and traditional asset contracts, Trade.xyz's trading share also rose from 39.4% to 62.7%, an increase of 23.3 percentage points.
Stocks and other traditional assets are rewriting the internal trading structure of Hyperliquid but are still insufficient to reverse the overall Perp DEX industry downturn. After the cooling of old crypto trading demand, stocks have become one of the few directions still able to absorb incremental trading volume. $SNDK SanDisk's performance is flawless: but it continues to plunge! How should we view and handle this now?
Just finished reviewing SanDisk's Q4 earnings, the numbers are unbelievably good: revenue hit 8.97 billion, far exceeding the expected 8.39 billion; earnings per share at $39.25 also beat the expected $34.4.
Gross margin soared directly to 84.6%, up more than 6 points from an already impressive 78.4%. Data center revenue reached 2.97 billion, surpassing expectations with 437% growth, and the QLC Stargate product is indeed starting to contribute revenue.
Logically, with such explosive data, the stock should have surged violently after hours.
What happened? It plunged after hours!
Not because of poor performance, but because the market wants the 2027 script, not the 2026 accolades. The Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, while the market expected 10.8 billion. That 250 million shortfall is just a breath away.
In short, the market logic now is: good performance is expected, good guidance is the real positive. Guidance not hitting the ceiling means failure.
So what now?
Long strategy: Wait for sentiment to settle. If pre-market can stabilize around 1340-1350, which is the support level of this rebound, consider light buying. Set stop loss below 1300, take profit at 1450-1480. The long-term logic of this stock is intact; AI storage shortages will last at least until mid-2027, and institutional average target price remains above 2400.
Short strategy: If the opening rebound can't break through 1430-1450, the high point of this rebound, consider shorting. Set stop loss at 1480, take profit at 1340. If it breaks 1300, increase position targeting 1244.
The performance is undeniably strong, but the best buying points are always after panic selling ends, not chasing in the numbness of "meeting expectations."
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound On-chain game between whales and smart money: Is someone quietly bottom-fishing?🤫
🔍 Despite the overall pessimistic data, Glassnode's "accumulation addresses" indicator shows that "mid-sized whales" holding 1000-10000 $ETH have net increased their holdings by about 150,000 $ETH in the past week. This middle force, neither super whales nor retail investors, is accumulating against the trend below 1900.
📊 The Put/Call Ratio on Deribit has dropped to 0.68, below 1 means the options market has more call option volume than put options. Some aggressive funds are positioning bullish options in the 1900-2000 range, betting on an oversold rebound.
🏦 Alternative data: Although ETH's Coinbase premium remains negative recently, the negative value has narrowed from -0.5% to -0.15%, indicating that selling pressure from US institutions is marginally easing. If this premium turns positive, it will be the first signal of ETH stabilization.
📉 But caution is needed: The Taker buy-sell difference (CVD) on $ETH is still deeply negative, indicating that active selling still dominates the market. Most buying is passive limit orders, lacking aggressiveness.
📌 Conclusion: Some smart money has started tentative bottom-fishing, but the strength is insufficient to counter whale distribution. Bulls and bears are still fiercely contesting the 1900 level.
✅ Bullish: Mid-sized whales accumulating + rising bullish sentiment in options, conditions for a local rebound are in place.
❌ Bearish: Active selling dominates, bottom-fishing funds are defensive in nature, lacking a main driving engine. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
Elon Musk's Tesla + SpaceX jointly launch the Terafab super wafer fab, with an initial investment of $16.8 billion, and the total long-term investment will increase significantly. The goal is an annual production capacity of 1 terawatt of computing power, covering chips for autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and space data centers.
✅ Bullish logic
Achieve vertical self-sufficiency in chips, freeing from constraints of external chip manufacturers.
There is a huge global AI computing power gap. If the project is successfully implemented, it will rewrite the AI hardware landscape and strengthen the growth potential of Musk's assets.
⚠️ Bearish logic
Chip fab construction cycles are long; it takes several years from groundbreaking to mass production, with huge long-term investment scale and high cash burn pressure.
Grand plans do not equal realization; there are many uncertainties in technology, funding, and capacity. At this stage, it is mostly story expectations.
📌 My personal view
This is a high-risk computing power gamble, with only thematic value in the short term and no substantial output.
The vision is grand enough, but huge capital expenditures will continuously consume cash flow. Don't be directly swayed by grand narratives; focus on tracking subsequent construction progress and mass production timing. At the story-telling stage, avoid assigning overly high valuations.
Mapping to the crypto market:
The news will briefly stimulate sentiment for AI computing power-related tokens. However, continuous large capital expenditures by giants will increase long-term U.S. Treasury pressure, suppressing overall risk asset valuations in the medium to long term.The July ADP miss sharpens the policy tension rather than settling it. Private payrolls rose 44,000, below the 75,000 forecast and the weakest gain in six months, but Governor Cook’s readiness to act if inflation fails to cool keeps the hawkish path open.
With MarketWatch placing the odds of a 25 bp September hike near 56.9%, crypto faces an asymmetric setup: soft payrolls may support risk appetite, yet persistent inflation could quickly reverse that relief. Friday’s payrolls and next week’s CPI should matter more than the first reaction to ADP. Not advice, just analysis.
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs #OKXOrbitEarnings surged 372%, but stock prices fell 19% — Wall Street has finally said "No" to AI storage
Looking at SanDisk's earnings report — revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, gross margin of 84.6%, EPS crushing expectations, plus a $14 billion buyback plan.
Looking at Western Digital's earnings report — revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, net profit soaring 12 times year-over-year.
Then waking up — Western Digital dropped 19%, SanDisk dropped 12%, SK Hynix dropped 8%.
Everyone was stunned.
"Isn't the performance explosive? Why the drop?"
Why? Because Wall Street now only cares about "how much can be earned in the future," not "how much was earned in the past."
SanDisk's guidance midpoint is $10.55 billion, while the market expected $11.148 billion.
Less than a 6% difference.
Stock price crashed 12%.
Western Digital is even more unfair — next quarter's revenue guidance midpoint is $4.1 billion, analysts expected only $4.02 billion.
Yet it fell 11% after hours and another 13% the next day.
The better the earnings, the worse the drop.
This scene has repeatedly played out this year — SK Hynix's Q2 earnings caused a 30% intraday drop, Samsung's profit surged 1810% but stock price fell 6%.
This is not a problem of one or two companies — it's the market's pricing logic for the entire AI storage supercycle loosening.
Goldman Sachs summed up the essence in one sentence:
"The core contradiction currently facing the storage industry is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but that market expectations have excessively outpaced reality."
In plain language —
It's not that storage is failing, but that market expectations for storage have reached a point where "you must be perfect, must beat expectations every time, and must significantly raise guidance."
SanDisk has risen over 460% this year, Western Digital up 200%.
The good news has long been priced in.
When earnings land and new catalysts for beating expectations don't appear — profit-taking intensifies.
What’s even more worrying is another signal.
NVIDIA is evaluating reducing the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra.
Originally planned to use HBM4e 12hi, now considering various lower configurations like HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi.
Even NVIDIA can't get enough high-end HBM.
What does this mean?
HBM is not a money printer; it’s a bottleneck.
Storage supply and demand are tight — on one hand supporting prices, on the other limiting AI chip shipments.
The story of "supply not meeting demand" is starting to show another face.
But the market is deeply divided.
Citibank says: inventory is low, supply fulfillment rate dropped from 70% to 50%, capacity can't meet orders.
China Asset Management says: in 3 to 5 years, storage supply will still struggle to meet all demand.
Morgan Stanley says: memory contract prices will peak in Q4.
Renqiao says: the industry has peaked, the extremely high-profit phase will inevitably be short-lived.
Both bulls and bears agree earnings are strong.
The disagreement is: how long can this strength last?
So my judgment is simple —
The plunge in storage stocks is not due to fundamentals collapsing, but "expectation gaps" killing them.
In the past year, the market priced AI storage as "getting better every quarter."
Now SanDisk says "gross margin is flat" — interpreted as a peak.
Western Digital says "next quarter guidance midpoint $4.1 billion" — slightly above expectations, yet still falls.
When the market is used to "beating expectations," anything "meeting expectations" is considered falling short.
Trading advice? Three sentences:
First, don’t comfort yourself with "good earnings." This earnings season, the market looks at guidance, gross margin trends, and the "second derivative" — how fast it grows is less important than whether it can grow faster.
Second, volatility in the storage sector is not over. SanDisk plunged 47% in July alone, wiping out $150 billion in market value. SK Hynix hit 30% limit down in pre-market on Nextrade. When liquidity dries up, fundamentals don’t matter.
Third, if you hold related assets — prepare for volatility. Who is right or wrong between bulls and bears is irrelevant; uncertainty itself is reason enough to reduce positions.
Wall Street is voting with its feet to tell you —
The best days of AI storage may already be behind us.
Or rather, the market thinks they are behind us.
$SNDK $WDC $SKHY #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is still moving sideways near its bottom, and the current monthly chart resembles November 2022. Could it still drop below $57,750? The likelihood is not very high. 🌿 Even though the lower Bollinger Band on the monthly chart sits at $51,473, price usually doesn't return to touch it—so that level isn't a reliable reference in practice. Solana is similar: its monthly lower Bollinger Band is around $42, but it’s unlikely to fall that far. The $60 area has alrBrothers, KMNO surged directly today, with the biggest driver being the launch of the Upbit KRW trading pair!
Within 15 minutes of the news, it violently surged 12%, reaching a high of 0.023, then retreated to around 0.01967 for consolidation.
Those familiar with the market know that Upbit's Korean capital has always had a strong pulse effect on Solana-based tokens; short-term buying comes fiercely and withdraws quickly.
Let's briefly review the project's fundamentals:
KMNO is the token of Kamino Finance, a leading lending protocol on Solana. The protocol's deposit scale exceeds $4 billion, ranking it in the top tier of Solana DeFi lending.
Recently, it launched the Institutional Yield vault, with the first Commodity Yield officially online, targeting an annualized 7-8%. It relies on CIMA-regulated funds to deploy off-chain commodity loans, marking an important attempt for the project to transition toward RWA institutional yields.
At the token level, the total supply is 10 billion tokens, with about 5.238 billion currently circulating, a circulation rate of 52.38%. Compared to many new projects, the circulation structure is relatively healthy. But don't overlook that an absolute circulating volume of 5 billion tokens is not small and requires continuous incremental capital to absorb. Also, the protocol fee switch is not yet activated, so business growth will not directly bring dividends or buyback benefits to the token for now.
Short-term resistance: 0.021-0.023, which is the high point of this Upbit news impact. This is the first major hurdle; a volume breakout is necessary to sustain upward momentum. Repeated resistance here tends to cause pullbacks.
Mid-term resistance: 0.026-0.027, a previous rebound trapped pressure zone.
Short-term support: 0.019-0.0195, the current turnover consolidation range, the first line of defense for bulls.
Strong support: 0.0176-0.018, a key bottom validated multiple times in July.
Personal view:
This round of rise is essentially driven by the exchange news pulse from Upbit's listing; the new RWA product is just an emotional buff, not the core driver of the market.
The Korean market often shows kimchi premium; after a short-term violent surge, once Korean buyers exit, the gains are easily given back.
For Solana tokens catalyzed by such news, remember the bottom line: suitable for short-term speculation, quick in and out, do not blindly hold long-term betting on narrative realization.
Focus on whether 0.021-0.023 can hold with volume; if it can't break through, don't chase. If the support breaks, adjust your strategy promptly.
This is a personal market analysis and information summary, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $KMNO
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Western Digital and SanDisk have successively released their earnings reports, with overall performance exceeding expectations, but their next quarter guidance and profit margin statements were cautious, causing their stock prices to plunge sharply. SanDisk's midpoint revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter is below market consensus, while Western Digital, despite projecting growth, failed to meet the previously elevated optimistic expectations. The storage sector immediately came under collective pressure, which quickly spread to Asian markets: South Korea's KOSPI fell sharply dragged down by semiconductor weights, SK Hynix experienced a flash crash in pre-market trading, and Samsung Electronics weakened simultaneously. Meanwhile, Nvidia is reportedly evaluating adjustments to the Rubin Ultra's VRAM configuration to cope with the ongoing tight supply of high-end HBM. Market discussions have shifted from "supply shortage equals positive" to a more realistic question: Is the storage shortage a support for price increases, or could it limit AI chip shipments and thus constrain sector valuations? Coupled with previous instances where leveraged funds suffered single-day crashes on targets like Hynix, the AI storage rally is moving from narrative-driven to a phase testing whether high expectations can be fulfilled. The earnings themselves are not bad. Western Digital's Q4 revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $3.747 billion, with adjusted EPS of $3.56; SanDisk's revenue surged 372% year-over-year to about $8.97 billion, with adjusted EPS of $39.25. Cloud and data center demand clearly drove near-term hard drive and enterprise SSD sales. What truly triggered the sell-off was the expectation gap—prior valuations had fully priced in the AI supercycle, so any guidance falling short of the most optimistic scenarios was interpreted negatively. The tight HBM supply is a real constraint. Expanding high-end bandwidth memory capacity takes time; long-term contracts lock in some demand but also limit short-term price spikes. Nvidia and other customers' configuration adjustments essentially represent trade-offs under hard supply constraints. This does not mean the bull market is ending immediately, but it implies increased volatility, and the simple logic of "out-of-stock = price increase" is no longer sufficient. For traders on OKX Planet, the storage sector has moved from a one-sided narrative into a verification period. Fundamentals still provide support, but position sizing and expectation management become more important. The repeated forced selling by leveraged funds reminds everyone: when high-expectation assets miss guidance, the adjustment speed will far exceed the rise. Going forward, focus will be on subsequent guidance from Samsung, SK Hynix, and the actual delivery pace of HBM, rather than short-term sentiment fluctuations.#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ In the summer of 2026, the global memory chip sector experienced a typical "earnings to the left, stock price to the right" scenario. Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX, and Micron Technology $MU delivered record-breaking earnings reports, while SanDisk and Western Digital also reported revenue and profits far exceeding expectations, yet their stock prices collectively faced pressure and even plummeted. Related concept stocks on the A-share market also fluctuated sharply, prompting the market to question: Has the AI-driven memory supercycle reached a turning point? Impressive earnings can't overcome the "expectation gap" The performance of the three memory giants can be described as "money printing machine" level. Samsung Electronics' operating profit for Q2 2026 reached approximately 89.4 trillion KRW (over $58 billion), soaring more than 1800% year-over-year, with quarterly profits once surpassing Nvidia, making it one of the most profitable companies globally. SK Hynix's revenue for the same period grew 257% year-over-year, with an operating margin as high as 76%, continuously setting new records. Micron Technology even achieved revenue around $41.46 billion, growing over 300% year-over-year, with a gross margin exceeding 80%. Recently released earnings reports from SanDisk and Western Digital were also strong: SanDisk's quarterly revenue surged by several hundred percent year-over-year, and Western Digital's revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations. However, market reaction was lukewarm. After the earnings release, SanDisk and Western Digital shares plunged in after-hours trading, and Asia-Pacific memory stocks like SK Hynix and Kioxia saw single-day declines exceeding 10%. Since the late June peak, the world's major storagShort sellers are starting to retreat: Two hours ago, there was still debate about the range direction, but now multiple KOLs have shifted focus to "where to buy the dip."
WWG will close nearly three-day $BTC short positions at breakeven while continuing to hold long positions; his condition is to hold 63.9K, first targeting 65.9K, and reassess downside if broken. Unity Academy also believes the shorting phase is nearing its end, and if a deep drop to 61K–59K occurs, longs must be sought. Dongbimao has started dollar-cost averaging as a long-term base position for the next bull market.
OKX publicly quotes around 64.3K. Overall judgment: this is a reversal in position direction, not yet a price breakout; holding 63.9K preserves the upward squeeze path, while breaking below invalidates short-term bullish logic. Will you build your base position first or wait for price confirmation?
$MON and $ACE have stopped losses; $HFT faces conflicting information with risks of delisting and high yield claims, and $BTW lacks public catalysts, so none are considered opportunities this round.
This is only a viewpoint and information summary, not investment adviceStaking and Unlocking: Invisible Selling Pressure Around 1900! 🔓
💰 $ETH Ethereum's staking rate is currently about 28%, with a total staked amount exceeding 34 million ETH. However, the core risk recently lies in the fact that after the Shanghai upgrade, staking unlocks have become extremely smooth, and with the current low coin price, many stakers face pressure to cut losses and exit.
📉 According to beaconcha.in data, although the validator exit queue has not surged in the past week, the number of addresses applying for withdrawals has increased by 35% week-over-week. If ETH falls below 1800, it may trigger a chain reaction—large amounts of staked ETH will be redeemed and transferred to exchanges for selling, creating a vicious cycle.
👀 Whale staking address movements: Among the top 10 staking pools, 3 have reduced their staking positions in the past 10 days, withdrawing over 80,000 ETH in total. These sensitive funds seem to anticipate further price declines.
📊 But it’s not all bearish! Lido’s stETH discount rate has narrowed from -1.2% last week to -0.4%, indicating that panic over liquid staking derivatives in the secondary market has eased. If the discount turns positive, it means the market is starting to regain confidence in ETH.
📌 Conclusion: The pressure from staking redemptions is a Damocles sword hanging above 1900. Once the key support is broken, it could trigger a stampede-like sell-off.
✅ Bullish: st$ETH discount narrowing, staking market panic easing.
❌ Bearish: Withdrawal requests increasing; if prices accelerate downward, it could trigger large-scale forced liquidations. $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #Storage stocks fall after earnings report, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
SanDisk and Western Digital performed almost identically: strong earnings, but stock prices fell.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, with about one-third from shipment growth and two-thirds from price increases. The full-year data center business grew 437%, and the enterprise storage demand driven by AI is clearly reflected in the earnings report.
Western Digital's Q4 revenue was $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $3.56, also exceeding Wall Street expectations. However, after the earnings release, both companies' stock prices dropped significantly, dragging down other storage-related stocks like Micron and SK Hynix as well 😅
Personally, I don't think the AI storage industry cycle can end so quickly. After all, the significant growth over the past year may have caused investors to develop a fear of heights emotionally. Therefore, revenue growth alone is not enough; capital wants to see growth continue to accelerate; beating analyst expectations is not enough either; guidance must be significantly higher than the most optimistic market forecasts; strong demand alone is not enough—price, shipment volume, and gross margin should ideally soar to outer space 😂
SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, still in a high-growth range but not meeting the market's previously elevated expectations. Western Digital faces a similar issue; the earnings themselves are solid, but some investors expect it to deliver stronger growth and profitability than Seagate.
There is also a point that is easily confused in discussions:
HBM, DRAM, NAND, enterprise SSD, and HDD are all lumped into the broad concept of "AI storage," but their corresponding demand and business cycles differ.
HBM works directly with GPUs for high-speed computing and remains the core bottleneck of AI hardware; DRAM handles runtime memory; NAND and enterprise SSDs provide high-performance data storage; HDDs benefit from the long-term growth of cloud data volume.
AI can drive all these markets simultaneously, but the speed of benefit, price elasticity, and competitive landscape will show obvious differences. Looking at just one day’s stock performance of SanDisk or Western Digital, it’s hard to directly conclude that the entire storage cycle has ended.
After some research, three key data points to focus on next are:
First, whether cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are slowing down capital expenditures;
Second, whether prices of NAND, DRAM, and enterprise hard drives can continue to strengthen;
Third, whether storage manufacturers’ inventory, gross margin, and orders can improve simultaneously.
As long as cloud providers continue to expand AI infrastructure, storage prices do not quickly soften, and enterprise demand keeps growing, this industry mainline remains intact. However, trading storage stocks has indeed become more challenging.
Previously, capital was willing to pay a premium for the entire AI storage sector; going forward, order fulfillment, product mix, and profit margins will gradually differentiate companies. The market where buying a concept alone could drive broad gains is slowly shifting toward more refined earnings selection. This also has reference value for the crypto market.
US AI concept stocks, DePIN, computing power, and crypto AI assets often share part of the same risk appetite. When US stocks begin valuation adjustments for "good earnings but no continued large beat," the crypto market’s AI narrative will also face stricter scrutiny. AI demand remains strong, and the storage cycle continues. It’s just that the market has already priced in the most optimistic expectations for the next few years, and future gains will require quarter after quarter of profits to support them.
$SNDK $WDC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ AI memory market: The decline is not the end, but the market beginning to reprice
Recently, the storage sector has seen a significant pullback, and many are starting to doubt: Is the AI wave cooling down?
But looking closely, this adjustment seems more like a valuation digestion after overly high expectations, rather than a sudden disappearance of demand.
From the earnings reports of storage companies like Western Digital and SanDisk, the performance itself is not bad; some data even exceeded market expectations, yet stock prices still plunged. The core reason is that the market had already fully priced in AI memory demand. Investors are expecting "stronger growth," not just growth.
Over the past year, the biggest change in the AI industry chain is that memory has gradually shifted from a cyclical industry to a part of AI infrastructure.
Especially HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which has become a key component in the AI GPU ecosystem. With the increase in large model training and inference demands, data centers' need for high-speed memory continues to rise. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all expanding their related layouts.
But the market's current concern is very realistic:
AI server demand is indeed strong, but can this strong demand continue to support the current valuation?
After all, the past upward logic was:
AI explosion → GPU demand increase → HBM supply shortage → storage manufacturers' profit improvement.
The next phase the market needs to verify is:
Increased AI investment → companies truly generate revenue → computing power demand continues to expand.
If the subsequent commercialization speed cannot keep up with capital expenditure speed, the AI industry chain will definitely experience fluctuations.
So this storage stock adjustment feels more like a screening process.
In the short term, capital is shifting from "speculating on AI stories" to "looking at real profit realization."
In the long term, the amount of data in the AI era will only grow, and the importance of memory and storage will not decline. What really needs attention is not who shouts AI the loudest, but who can continuously secure orders, maintain technological leadership, and convert demand into profit.
What the market fears most is not a decline, but a crazy rise without adjustment.
This round of volatility is actually giving the entire AI chain a revaluation.
Is the AI bull market still on?
My view is: The story is not over, but the market has moved from "believing in the future" to "verifying the future." @OKX星球 After launching, pools.trade quickly became the most active launchpad on Robinhood Chain. According to Dune data, on the first day of launch, the Uniswap V4 trading volume on Robinhood Chain was approximately $73.6 million, surpassing Ethereum mainnet's $47.2 million. On August 6, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams publicly disclosed that pools.trade's cumulative trading volume had exceeded $150 million, with some users completing trades through early smart contract versions before the official UI release. pools.trade is currently still in Beta, and Hayden Adams stated that the team will continue to roll out upgrades and optimizations.
Uniswap's launch of its own launchpad at this time has a clear strategic logic behind it. Since its launch, Robinhood Chain has seen highly active Meme token trading. According to DefiLlama data, the chain currently has a total locked value of about $433 million, with a 24-hour DEX trading volume of approximately $550 million. Uniswap accounts for over 90% of on-chain trading and liquidity provision, contributing about $2.15 million in fees on this chain in the past 24 hours, far exceeding Pons V1's approximately $355,000. Although Uniswap firmly dominates the trading layer, the token launch segment was previously controlled by third-party platforms like Flap and Pons. Uniswap has long played the role of "backend infrastructure," unable to directly access the entry traffic of creators and early traders.
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ BTC is consolidating around $64,500 as the market awaits tonight's non-farm payroll data for direction.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US July non-farm employment report will be released. The previous value was 57,000, with a forecast of 80,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from before.
There is significant divergence in institutional forecasts for the non-farm data: Vanguard expects only 10,000, while Nomura Securities forecasts 130,000.
Is this data critical?
June's non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000, showing signs of weakness. More importantly, the ADP "small non-farm" added only 44,000, far below expectations. Goldman Sachs pointed out a historical pattern where July non-farm payrolls have frequently fallen short of expectations in recent years. Some institutions also suggest the data might show a combination of non-farm payrolls below expectations (around 50,000) and an unemployment rate above expectations (over 4.3%).
Three scenarios and their impact on BTC:
① Data significantly below expectations (under 60,000): rate cut expectations rise, the dollar weakens, risk appetite recovers, and BTC has room to rebound. After June's non-farm surprise, BTC rose from $61,500 to nearly $64,000. If a similar scenario repeats, the $65,000 resistance level might be broken.
② If data meets expectations (around 80,000): the market digests the news with volatility and no clear direction. BTC will likely continue to consolidate between $64,000 and $65,000.
③ Data significantly exceeds expectations (over 130,000): the dollar strengthens, yields rise, rate hike expectations return, and BTC faces short-term pressure. The $64,000 support may not hold.
Tonight's data will break the deadlock. However, it is important to note that after the short-term impact of the non-farm data, the true determinant of the medium-term direction remains the July CPI and the Federal Reserve's September decision. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ When it comes to investing, the so-called "luck" is often hard to explain, but one thing is very real.
When those around you who have experienced several bull and bear markets and have been through the ups and downs of the capital market for years start to form a consensus on risk, and the stories that were repeatedly discussed six months or a year ago suddenly trigger a wave of widespread public sentiment, when you find stay-at-home moms, office workers, and even people who have never been involved in investing start showing off their returns and shouting slogans, it often means that this feast is nearing its end.
The greatest danger in the capital market is never that no one cares, but that everyone firmly believes they can make money.
The rise of Nvidia is backed by the fate of the United States, the AI revolution, midterm elections, capital inflows, and the market's creation of a godlike figure, all shaping the atmosphere of the era.
But the storage industry does not have such a fate.
It is essentially still a highly cyclical industry and cannot support such a huge valuation premium. As it stands, many people are not buying the asset itself but the "destiny premium" that emotions have bestowed upon it.
When the bubble bursts, many people's life savings, even their savings for the latter half of their lives, vanish into thin air.
Is there still a chance to turn things around?
Of course, but it is ultimately just a rare exception.
More people will probably return to ordinary life and silently pay the price for past fanaticism through day-to-day work.
The cruelest part of the financial market is not making people lose money, but after the illusion of wealth shatters, making people re-recognize themselves and the times.
Why do some people richer and more powerful than me still want to hang out and brag with me? Because when great luck is upon us, there’s no way around it. The non-farm payrolls are coming this afternoon.
Previous unemployment rate was 4.2, expected 4.2.
Previous non-farm employment was 5.7, expected 8.
To be honest,
this data mainly reflects the economic heat.
If good, the probability of a rate hike increases.
If bad, the probability of a rate hike decreases.
The small employment data from a few days ago already showed weakness in employment,
so the July employment data might not be that strong,
because the data from a few days ago roughly reflects July's development.
The unemployment rate might meet expectations or be above 4.2.
Employment numbers might fall short of the expected 8.
But the data cannot show the economy is too cold.
If the economy is too cold, it means economic downturn.
An economic downturn, even if it lowers the probability of a rate hike, is not very friendly to the financial markets.
So today's data should be near the expected values,
overall likely reducing the probability of a rate hike.
Currently, the US stock market is near daily support levels.
The US dollar index is just below 100.
Recently, the RMB to USD exchange rate has been strengthening.
All these indicate that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates.
Don't be fooled by the Fed's tough talk every day,
but their actions are very honest.$ETH ETF Nightmare: Funds Flee Frenziedly! 🏦
🇺🇸 Since the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF, except for a small net inflow on the first day, it has shown continuous net outflows for many days. Grayscale ETHE has been like a floodgate breaking, with daily outflows consistently at the $100-200 million level. Compared to the BTC ETF's massive capital attraction, the ETH ETF is like an abandoned child.
📊 According to Farside data, the cumulative net outflow of the Ethereum ETF has exceeded $500 million, with no sign of slowing down. Institutional investors are using the ETF as an exit to massively reduce their Ethereum holdings. This contrasts sharply with the $BTC ETF's net inflow of $750 million.
🤯 Deep reason: Institutions are confused about ETH's positioning. BTC has a clear "digital gold" narrative, while ETH faces fierce competition from high-performance public chains like Solana, and L2 scaling solutions have sharply reduced mainnet revenue. Traditional capital sees no unique value capture logic in ETH and naturally votes with their feet.
📉 On-chain verification: Coinbase premium index is also negative for ETH, and US institutions are selling ETH even more aggressively than BTC. Although there are sporadic bottom-fishing activities in the Asian market, the volume is far from enough to offset US selling pressure.
📌 Conclusion: The continuous outflow of $ETH ETF funds is the core external factor suppressing the price. Before the outflow slows down, ETH is unlikely to organize an effective rebound.
✅ Bullish: Under extremely pessimistic expectations, if there is an unexpected catalyst (such as approval of a staking ETF), the rebound potential is huge.
❌ Bearish: Currently, there is no sign of a stop in the capital outflow, and Grayscale's selling pressure is far from over.
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Employment is almost cooling off, and they still dare to raise interest rates? $BTC Waiting for an answer tonight
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The current U.S. economy is quite conflicted.
Companies are becoming more cautious about hiring, yet prices still won't come down. The Fed is not just facing a simple choice between "raising or lowering rates," but employment and inflation are pulling in opposite directions.
Nonfarm payrolls in June increased by only 57,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%; July's ADP private employment added just 44,000, significantly below market expectations. Employment is indeed cooling off, and it’s not just a short-term trend.
But the Fed remains tough.
At the July meeting, the decision to keep rates unchanged was 9 to 3, with Harker, Kashkari, and Logan directly calling for a 25 basis point hike. Having three votes for a rate hike in one meeting sends a clear signal: as long as inflation remains high, some officials are willing to accept further employment deterioration.
So tonight’s nonfarm payrolls at 20:30 Beijing time should not be judged solely by the number of new jobs added.
If employment is weak but wage growth remains high, the Fed can interpret this as "companies hiring less but still competing for limited labor." Such data can only reduce the probability of a near-term rate hike but is unlikely to make the Fed truly dovish.
The real combination that can suppress the hawks is continued decline in new jobs, rising unemployment, and cooling wages. Only when all three weaken together does it indicate that high interest rates are effectively suppressing demand.
For #$BTC, the biggest pitfall is to see nonfarm payrolls below expectations and immediately chase the rally.
If only employment is weak but wages and inflation remain tight, BTC might surge initially but then be pulled back by U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. The market needs not just "bad data" but data that proves inflation will also decline.
My judgment leans toward the Fed holding steady in September, but don’t expect rapid rate cuts either. Weak employment can block rate hikes but doesn’t necessarily open the door to rate cuts immediately.
Whether BTC can find direction tonight may depend more on wage data than on nonfarm payroll numbers. The reinforcement ratio of the top load-bearing wall was suddenly lowered, which is not a structural risk but rather indicates that the foundation has become so solid that the layer of steel reinforcement is no longer needed.
As an architect who makes a living from this, I am used to reading every market announcement as a construction change order. Today's change order modifies the VIP9 unit on the top floor of that financial tower: the maker fee rate tightened from -0.0075% to -0.0050%, and the taker fee rate was reduced from 0.0175% to 0.0150%. The numbers are small, but those in the know see that the load factor for the rooftop helipad has been recalibrated.
Many focus on the white paper's renderings, but as an old craftsman, I only flip through the construction logs. The fee adjustment is like the concrete test block report poured on site—the 28-day compressive strength has reached 115% of the design value, so the supervisor naturally notifies you that the formwork can be removed. What is a negative fee rate? It is a subsidy from the contractor to the top-floor owner. To attract flagship tenants, the developer is willing to bear part of the structural reinforcement cost. Now that the subsidy has shrunk, there is only one explanation: the tower's concrete has reached design strength, the settlement observation curve has leveled off, and no additional braces are needed to maintain posture. The negative rebate for VIP9 is essentially temporary support; removing it means the main structure can now stand on its own.
Some see this adjustment as a tax on liquidity, but I prefer to compare it to adjusting the wind load coefficient of the curtain wall. After a tower completes a full construction cycle, the structural engineer recalculates the actual wind pressure, converting excess redundancy into usable space. The 0.0025 percentage point rebate difference is equivalent to those few counterweight lead blocks being removed. As for the related tower in the US stock market across the shore, it shares the same foundation with this platform—the wind tunnel effect caused by the rate change will transmit through the basement corridor but will not change the bearing capacity of any pile.
Look at the adjustment time: from 3 PM to 5 PM on August 14, two hours. In construction, this is called a window period—the concrete pouring must avoid times with large temperature variations. Choosing this time shows the operator's intimate knowledge of the structure, knowing when thermal expansion and contraction are minimal. The announcement only states the date, not the exact time, like the general contractor only issuing a sub-project acceptance notice, leaving the precise seconds to the site engineer. This composure itself signals structural stability.
VIP9 is the pinnacle of the pinnacle, accessible only to whale-level capital. Adjusting their fee rates is like adding a tuned mass damper to the top observation floor—when strong winds hit, the tower doesn't resist rigidly but sways accordingly, dissipating energy in unseen places. The reduction in negative fees means that the "attraction anchor" previously made with real money has been replaced by the structure's own stiffness.
That small number change on the blueprint, in my eyes, is another confirmation of the entire load-bearing system against gravity. No beam needs reinforcement, and no curtain wall needs replacement.
#ImpactCycle·Weekly #OKXDynamic·FeeRates #VIP 9·Maker -0.0050%·Taker 0.0150%Let's talk about a particularly magical phenomenon with $DOGE: the $0.1 level is literally welded into everyone's mind. Right now, DOGE is hovering around $0.07, which is just over 40% away from $0.1, but if you look at the order book and community discussions, it's full of "I'll break even once it hits $0.1" and "Only above $0.1 is a bull market," as if this integer isn't a price but a psychological barrier.
Behavioral finance calls this the integer anchoring effect—people have a natural obsession with round numbers, piling up orders, take-profits, and cost memories around integers. DOGE amplifies this effect tenfold because of its high retail concentration. Above $0.1, there are two groups: one group got trapped last year as it fell from $0.12 and $0.2, with their cost basis stuck around $0.1, ready to sell as soon as they break even; the other group missed the boat and waits for a "confirmed breakout above $0.1" to jump in. So every time it tries to break through this level, it turns into a meat grinder—like in April this year when it surged to $0.0948, just shy of the goal, but then break-even sellers and profit-takers flooded out and pushed it back down.
What's even more extreme is that this obsession is self-fulfilling. The more people fixate on $0.1, the thicker the order wall there becomes, making it harder to break through, which in turn reinforces the consensus that "$0.1 is crucial." Market makers and quant traders love this spot—liquidity is dense, stop losses are clustered, allowing them to harvest profits back and forth.
So how to break the deadlock? Grinding it out won't work; it requires a liquidity-level shock—like a collective rally in risk assets, or real capital inflows from ETFs or payment narratives that eat through the sell orders on the wall in one go. Until then, $0.1 remains DOGE's psychological demon and the bears' best shield. As a bull, I'm not in a hurry; the longer this integer level grinds, the more violent the real breakout will be when it finally happens. The selling pressure on memory stocks this round is very typical: the industry logic hasn't broken, but the holding sentiment has deteriorated first.
AI's demand for HBM, DRAM, and storage still exists, and supply hasn't suddenly loosened. However, Korean and US storage chain stocks surged too much earlier, and investors have already taken "AI servers continuing to lack memory" as the default answer. Now, as long as a company's guidance isn't blown out of the sky, the market starts to sell off.
This is not simply bearish on storage, but a deleveraging of leveraged positions.
I think whether Korean stocks can reverse depends not only on the fundamentals of SK Hynix and Samsung but also on two small things: whether retail margin financing has been cleared, and whether foreign capital is willing to revalue. No matter how good the fundamentals are, if the market is full of people eager to get their money back, the rebound will be very tiring.
AI storage is a good story, but even a good story fears overcrowding. #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
This is really outrageous! Western Digital and SanDisk both beat earnings expectations, yet their stock prices crashed immediately?
This is the market now—if guidance is even slightly conservative, institutions start dumping shares like crazy. The most ridiculous is Nvidia, which is reportedly considering lowering Rubin's video memory configuration? It's like buying a top-spec computer only to be told by the manufacturer that the memory isn't enough and you have to downgrade.
The current AI storage market has long shifted from the so-called "shortage bull market" to an "expectation trap." Everyone is betting on that fulfillment date, but if it doesn't materialize, it's a huge bubble.
I'm starting to suspect that we've been fooled by the AI memory narrative. Once shipment volumes are restricted, the entire sector's valuation is just a castle in the air.
Position: I've completely liquidated all AI-related storage positions. Right now, I only trust cash, not earnings reports! It's really been a long time! From February until now, the market has given us 6 months to place our bets. It inevitably reminds me of the period from March to October 2024, the same kind of struggle, the same test of patience.
But times have changed. Back then it was a bull market, now it's a bear market. The bull market was gathering strength to go up, but who knows if now it's gathering strength to go down? Isn't there an old saying, "A long horizontal trend must fall"?
But no matter what, I still hold firm confidence in the future market!
Over these 6 months, BTC has been shuttling back and forth around a single line;
<10y Realized Price — a reference line that excludes BTC held for over 10 years from the cost basis, resulting in a figure closer to the market's average cost.
As shown in the chart, in the past 3 cycles it was a strong resistance, but this cycle it has become support. Can you handle that?
I've been thinking, could this be a kind of market language?
It's testing us in its own way to see if we can understand and if we have patience.
"Sellers gave up below the average cost; buyers saw opportunity below the average cost." If supply and demand weren't balanced, how could it hold here for so long?
As the saying goes, "The longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical." The chips have fully changed hands again; hopefully, in the next bull market, this can serve as a foundation to bring us surprises. Wednesday's 14% drop was called a “performance bomb,” Thursday's 6% rise was called “all bad news priced in” — the same SPCX, two groups playing
On Wednesday night, you saw SpaceX's first financial report —
Revenue of $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, beating market expectations.
Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $540 million.
But AI capital expenditure was $18.37 billion, a staggering 550% year-over-year surge, nearly 40% higher than analyst expectations.
After-hours stock price plunged directly, dropping 14% the next day.
The market verdict was: “Burning cash too fiercely, not worthy of this valuation.”
On Thursday, the first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked.
What does this mean? Tradable shares surged from 639 million to 1.55 billion, with potential selling pressure close to $100 billion. Media headlines flooded with — “Hundred-billion unlock flood incoming,” “SpaceX's most dangerous day.”
And then?
The stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. Total volume was 255 million shares, a one-and-a-half-month high.
The same company that dropped 14% on Wednesday rose 6% on Thursday.
What exactly happened?
First, Wednesday's 14% plunge was itself an “unlock.”
With 200 million shares traded in a single day, those wanting to exit were already washed out. Market insiders had long understood — shorts weren't betting on a fundamental collapse, but on insiders selling heavily after the unlock.
But insiders barely sold, leaving shorts stunned.
Second, short positions were too full, a short squeeze was imminent. By Wednesday's close, short positions accounted for 36% of the float, with unrealized gains exceeding $9 billion.
No drop at Thursday's open, were shorts panicking? Of course. Covering shorts means buying, buying pushes the stock price up.
Third, Wall Street is voting with real money.
Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 target price, JPMorgan raised theirs from $225 to $240. At least six brokerages maintain buy ratings.
Morgan Stanley analysts said: “SpaceX is a rare generational compound enterprise.”
Even the options market is betting on a bottom — institutional traders sold $90 put options while buying $220 call options, betting the stock won't drop 20% in the next ten months, possibly doubling.
But don't celebrate too early.
This is not the end. SpaceX uses a nine-stage phased unlock mechanism. August was only the first wave; multiple batches of shares will unlock gradually.
The biggest bomb is in June 2027 — 6.4 billion shares held by Musk will unlock then.
The current price is still below the $135 IPO price.
Unlocking without a drop doesn't mean no future drops. The supply shock is only delayed, not eliminated.
To be honest —
Are the people cursing AI cash burn on Wednesday the same as those shouting “all bad news priced in” on Thursday?
No.
Wednesday's sellers were short-term funds; Thursday's buyers are long-term believers.
Retail investors net bought $22.7 million in the first hour of Wednesday's plunge — to them, aggressive AI investment is not bad news, but a signal of increased long-term winning probability. Institutions are cautious due to soaring capital expenditure; retail sees high investment as a pre-cost for future dominance.
The same financial report, two interpretations.
What’s next for SPCX?
Short term, the unlock bad news has temporarily landed, with strong marginal support around $105-$110.
But long term, three things truly decide the stock price:
Whether Starlink can continue generating cash — Q2 Starlink revenue was $4.3 billion, the only profitable segment, with 12 million users doubling.
Whether AI investment can convert into revenue — AI business revenue was $2.56 billion, a 247% year-over-year surge, but still losing $1.26 billion. Over half of Morgan Stanley's target price comes from AI business valuation.
Whether Starship can progress on schedule — aerospace business still losing $540 million, R&D investment continuously increasing.
You panic at Wednesday's 14% drop, you FOMO at Thursday's 6% rise. But the real winners see bottom signals during panic and spot the next bomb during the frenzy.SNDK midday market analysis: The 4-hour chart shows a large volatile movement. Previously, it rebounded from a low of 972.20 and surged to a high of 1518.23 before sharply falling back. Currently, it is in a recovery and consolidation phase after the pullback. Selling pressure was released after the surge, with net capital outflow, and short-term bulls and bears are fiercely contesting.
- Resistance range: 1340‑1380
- Support range: 1220‑1180
- Trading strategy:
If the rebound hits the resistance zone and is blocked, consider short positions with a stop loss at 1420 and targets at 1250‑1200;
If it pulls back to the support zone and stabilizes, consider long positions with a stop loss at 1140 and targets at 1330‑1370. $SNDK The earnings season for the storage sector has given a clear signal that performance can blow through the ceiling, but stock prices still fall.
Financial report explosion is only the ticket, the guidance is the pricing anchor
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 372%, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; Adjusted EPS is $39.25, with a gross profit margin of 84.6%, reaching a historical high. Western Digital's revenue was $3.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, which also exceeded expectations. Both companies delivered impeccable results, with SanDisk falling 7% after hours and Western Digital falling 11%.
There is only one core reason: the guidance is not impressive enough. SanDisk's revenue outlook for the next quarter is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion, lower than FactSet's expected $11.148 billion. Western Digital also faced disappointment of "not enough surprises." Citigroup lowered its target price for SanDisk from $2,500 to $2,100. What the market wants is not "good," but "better than expected." When expectations have been pulled to the ceiling, any number below "perfect" is penalized.
The three forces that crush the plate are fermenting at the same time
The sell-offs of SanDisk and Western Digital quickly spread throughout the storage chain. Kioxia and SK Hynix plummeted by more than 10%, while Samsung Electronics fell by more than 6%. The KOSPI index fell by 5%, SK Hynix fell by more than 9%, and Samsung Electronics fell by more than 6%. Daxin Securities clearly pointed out that SanDisk's lower-than-expected performance guidance weakened the market's investment confidence in the storage chip industry, and the significant pullback in the semiconductor sector became the main reason for the decline in KOSPI that day.
Nvidia is evaluating a reduction in the HBM configuration of the Rubin Ultra from HBM4e 12Hi to 8Hi or other options. The reason is that the overall DRAM shortage in 2027 limits HBM wafer production capacity,$BTC #$SNDK #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #Uniswap enters the launchpad arena, can UNI open a new narrative?
I am Brother Ci, and Uniswap itself has stepped in to create a launchpad.
On August 5th, Uniswap Labs officially launched the token issuance platform Pools.trade on Robinhood Chain. This is not a simple feature update; it is a strategic move by Uniswap extending from the trading backend to the token issuance frontend.
The platform offers two token issuance modes. Instant issuance suits projects with an existing community base; creators pay initial liquidity, and tokens immediately enter the Uniswap v4 liquidity pool for trading. The crowdfunding issuance sets a four-hour window, using a time-weighted average price bidding mechanism to suppress sniper bots; after the window closes, tokens settle into a permanently locked v4 pool.
The core design of Pools.trade is permanently locked liquidity, fundamentally different from Pump.fun’s model of migrating liquidity after token graduation. Uniswap does not charge platform issuance fees, only retaining a 0.25% LP fee rate, of which 80% is automatically reinvested into the liquidity pool and 20% allocated to the token creator. Other launch platforms generally charge around 1% fees.
The first-day data is impressive. On Robinhood Chain, Uniswap v4’s trading volume reached $73.6 million, surpassing Ethereum mainnet’s $47.2 million, becoming the most active network. By August 6th, cumulative trading volume exceeded $150 million. About 6,000 tokens were minted on the first day, exceeding the combined daily issuance volume of competing platforms like Pons, Flap, and Bankr. By trading volume on issuance platforms, Pools.trade has captured 50% market share. The top ecosystem token FRONG’s market cap surpassed $8.2 million.
This move has an important strategic background. Robinhood has about 25 million monthly active users and is one of the most penetrated retail investment platforms in the U.S. As the default AMM on its L2 chain, Uniswap directly connects to this user base that had never engaged with DeFi before. In July 2026 alone, over 340,000 new tokens were issued via Robinhood Chain. Revenue from Robinhood Chain now accounts for nearly half of Uniswap’s weekly protocol income. Uniswap’s revenue on Robinhood Chain has exceeded that on Ethereum mainnet by nearly 300%.
Community controversy focuses on fee design. Critics estimate that with $1 million trading volume, creators on other platforms can earn about $6,000 in commissions, while Pools.trade only yields about $500. Hayden Adams responded that high fees are a hidden tax sacrificing traders’ interests; the 0.25% fee rate combined with automatic reinvestment better supports long-term token liquidity growth.
Direct impact on UNI. After the announcement, UNI rebounded nearly 7% from its 24-hour low. A bigger change is at the governance level: after Proposal 100 passed, part of the protocol fees is redirected to the TokenJar smart contract, which automatically buys UNI on the open market and permanently burns it. Protocol daily revenue jumped from about $114,000 to over $325,000. UNI is evolving from a pure governance token into a deflationary asset supported by actual cash flow.
Pools.trade is still in Beta. But one data point illustrates its scale: before launch, trading volume facilitated by early contract versions already exceeded $150 million. Uniswap has completed a full loop from infrastructure to traffic entry to issuance tools in three steps: first fully deploying the protocol on Robinhood Chain, then launching the Launches discovery feature, and finally releasing the Pools.trade issuance tool. Moving from the trading backend to the token issuance frontend is a change in UNI’s long-term valuation logic worth continuous tracking.
Brother Ci has finished. Ponder it carefully. $BTC $ETH $SNDK In August 2026, X Layer delivered a report card worth taking seriously: DeFi TVL surpassed $100 million, growing nearly tenfold in the past six months; Stablecoin issuance scale exceeded 2 billion USD, ranking among the top ten global public blockchains; Cumulative active addresses exceeded 4.2 million, with on-chain transactions surpassing 400 million; Leading protocols such as Aave ($AAVE) and Uniswap ($UNI) have landed, becoming major growth engines. The significance of these numbers is even more noteworthy for OKB than last year's burning. 1. Supply is locked, demand is beginning to be validated. Currently, $OKB's price is around $85–87, reflecting a phased pricing pattern of "supply locked + preliminary ecosystem verification." The one-time burn in August 2025 has permanently locked the total supply at 21 million coins. Scarcity is solved. The real question becomes: Without ongoing buybacks, why is OKB still needed? X Layer is answering this question with real-world data. Because OKB is the only gas token on X Layer, any on-chain activity—whether it's Aave lending, Uniswap swaps, or tokenized US stock transfers and trades—will directly consume OKB. The more active the protocol, the more real the on-chain demand for OKB. X Layer still has a small absolute scale and is clearly behind the leading L2, but it has already proven that rapid real growth can still be achieved without strong stimulation. 2. Traditional Financial Resources and Demand#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
ADP hits six-month low, so why did September rate hike expectations rise instead?
ADP private sector employment increased by only 44,000, hitting a six-month low, while expectations were 75,000. According to previous logic, this would be ironclad evidence of an economic slowdown and that the Federal Reserve should quickly cut rates. But why does MarketWatch data show that the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September hasn’t dropped but instead risen, even reaching 56.7%?
Because the labor market is telling two completely conflicting stories.
Although corporate hiring is slowing, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 were only 199,000, marking the third consecutive week below 200,000. This indicates that there has been no large-scale layoffs and the labor market remains very resilient. More critically, unit labor costs in the second quarter rose by 1.3%, and this cost pressure will stick in inflation like a nail.
Honestly, when the ADP data came out last night, many in my trading group were shouting “cooling hiring, good for rate cuts,” but after looking at these conflicting data points, I quietly withdrew my BTC long order that I had planned to place around $60,000. Because I know Federal Reserve Governor Cook’s stance is very clear: if inflation doesn’t continue to cool, she is ready to act at any time. This is not a message rate cut advocates want to hear.
This reflects a deep shift in the macro trading narrative: the market has moved from simply watching “whether hiring is cooling” to the tougher question of “whether the speed of hiring cooling can outpace the inflation pressure caused by labor costs.”
This change in pricing logic is extremely unfavorable to the current crypto market.
Currently, overall liquidity in the crypto space remains very low, and everyone is eagerly waiting for the Federal Reserve to turn on the liquidity tap. If tonight’s nonfarm payroll data is weak but hourly wage growth and next week’s CPI inflation data remain high, the Fed will most likely grit its teeth and keep rates high or even hike at the September FOMC. This means the liquidity drought will last longer, and altcoins will continue to face bleeding pressure.
At this time, if you only focus on the news of fewer hires and rush to deleverage and go long, you are likely to get slapped back by subsequent wage inflation data.
Next, I suggest focusing on two indicators: tonight’s month-over-month hourly wage growth in nonfarm payrolls and next week’s CPI rent stickiness. If these two core inflation factors don’t relent, expectations for a September rate hike won’t ease, and the sword hanging over risk assets will remain.
Here’s a question for you: if tonight’s nonfarm employment numbers are extremely poor but average hourly wage growth unexpectedly rebounds, how do you think the market will move? 【Crypto Script】
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温
I am Script Bro, tonight focusing on two key market news: one is Alphabet issuing $25 billion in bonds to further invest in AI infrastructure, and the other is the US July nonfarm payroll data released at 20:30 tonight. Script Bro will continue live streaming tonight to watch the market’s core theme now—the AI investment cycle and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations.
First, let’s look at Alphabet, Google’s parent company.
Recently, Alphabet announced issuing $25 billion in bonds. Many people’s first reaction is whether Google is short on cash, but Script Bro thinks it’s not that simple. For a tech giant like Alphabet with hundreds of billions in cash reserves, issuing bonds is more about optimizing capital structure and putting more funds into the most competitive future direction.
And the biggest direction now is AI. This financing by Alphabet essentially sends a signal that tech giants are still continuing to invest in AI; the AI arms race is far from over.
However, the market is also concerned about whether such large AI investments can truly convert into profits in the future. If capital expenditures keep increasing but commercialization speed can’t keep up, the market may reassess tech stock valuations.
Tonight’s nonfarm payroll data is an important variable affecting this market environment.
Currently, the market expects about 80,000 new nonfarm jobs in the US for July, up from the previous 57,000. But Goldman Sachs also warns there is a risk the July employment data may fall short of expectations. More importantly, after the unemployment rate stabilized, the labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest since 2021.
Script Bro believes the real market impact of nonfarm payrolls is not just the number of new jobs but whether it changes the Fed’s subsequent policy expectations.
If tonight’s nonfarm is significantly below expectations, it means the US job market continues to cool, and the market may further price in rate cuts. The dollar and US Treasury yields could come under pressure, supporting growth tech stocks.
But if nonfarm is stronger than expected, it means the job market remains resilient, and the Fed’s rate cut pace may be delayed, causing short-term market volatility.
For the crypto circle, the logic is the same.
BTC is increasingly behaving like a risk asset, closely linked to US tech stocks and liquidity conditions.
Currently, BTC price is still oscillating around $64,000. After pulling back from around $65,000, it hasn’t broken the $64,000 support, indicating bulls and bears are waiting for new catalysts.
If tonight’s nonfarm is weak, the market strengthens rate cut expectations, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite rises, BTC may see capital inflows and further challenge the $65,000 or even $66,000 range.
But if nonfarm is too strong, the market worries about high rates lasting longer, short-term funds may avoid risk assets, and BTC may continue to oscillate around $64,000 to digest.
So Script Bro thinks the market is actually waiting for two answers now.
The first is whether AI investments can really translate into future profits, determining if US tech stocks can keep rising.
The second is whether the US economy is soft-landing or employment is clearly cooling, deciding the Fed’s next move.
For BTC, rising US tech stocks provide risk appetite support, and improved rate cut expectations provide liquidity support.
So after tonight’s nonfarm release, don’t just look at whether the data is good or bad, but how the market interprets it.
Data is just the start; capital flow direction truly determines the market trend. Do you think tonight’s nonfarm will push BTC past $65,000 or keep it oscillating? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温
Previously, the market widely expected Iran and Oman to reach a framework agreement for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which once eased the Middle East crisis in trading and reduced the risk premium on oil prices. However, multiple conflicts erupted during the negotiation process, blocking the agreement's implementation. The full restoration of safe navigation through the strait in the short term has failed, and geopolitical risks have resurfaced.
The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil, making it a critical global energy chokepoint. The current negotiation deadlock is not just about simple route division; the underlying conflicts are very real: Iran insists on controlling the strait, proposing to distinguish hostile vessels and impose related transit service fees. However, shipping insurance and U.S. sanctions rules directly block this mechanism—once a vessel pays the fee, war risk insurance becomes invalid, and commercial shipowners dare not participate. Meanwhile, Iran has clearly stated that as long as U.S. military pressure is not lifted, even if the navigation text is finalized, it does not mean the strait is fully open.
The market is now sharply divided between two expectations: some funds are betting on continued diplomatic negotiations, while others are repricing the long-term instability risk of the strait, intensifying oil price volatility.
Breaking down the two scenarios helps understand the chain effects on crude oil, inflation, and Bitcoin.
Scenario 1: Agreement completely stalls, the strait continues to operate under high risk (risk-biased scenario)
Negotiations fail to bridge differences, no feasible navigation plan is implemented, and risks of strait harassment and vessel detainment persist.
Crude oil: Oil prices push up risk premiums, freight and shipping insurance costs surge, opening upward elasticity in crude prices.
Macro transmission: Energy price increases directly raise global inflation expectations, constraining the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts and even reinforcing the hawkish narrative of maintaining high interest rates longer.
Crypto market: Rising oil prices and inflation expectations are bearish for BTC. Bitcoin is currently a high-beta risk asset and does not act as a pure safe haven like gold; inflation rebound suppresses liquidity expectations, U.S. growth stocks come under pressure, and Bitcoin simultaneously bears emotional pressure, amplifying market volatility.
Scenario 2: Diplomatic mediation achieves a limited temporary compromise (baseline neutral scenario)
Iran and Oman reach a limited temporary navigation arrangement, but it does not fully restore pre-conflict free navigation; transit procedures become more complex, and uncertainty remains.
Crude oil: Risk premiums slightly decline but do not return to pre-conflict lows; tail risks from geopolitics persist.
Macro level: Inflation pressure marginally eases, but risks are not eliminated.
Crypto market: Risk-off sentiment fades, risk appetite slightly recovers, Bitcoin follows U.S. stocks in volatile recovery but struggles to form a major trend.
Many in the community fall into a common misconception: seeing trouble in the Middle East, they directly treat Bitcoin as a safe haven to go long. Real market experience repeatedly shows that when geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices and inflation, Bitcoin tends to weaken along with risk assets, while gold remains the traditional safe haven; only in crises involving fiat currency credit collapse does Bitcoin's safe haven narrative truly take effect.
Two practical reminders for the community:
① Focus on two leading indicators: changes in Brent crude oil risk premiums and long-term U.S. Treasury yields. If oil prices keep rising and push U.S. Treasury yields higher, proactively reduce bullish expectations; do not let news headlines drive emotional trades, as Middle East news often reverses quickly, causing sharp spikes.
② Do not speculate on Bitcoin based on geopolitical news; the market often "buys the rumor, sells the fact." Geopolitics is a disturbance factor; the real drivers of major trends remain inflation data and Federal Reserve policy. In a volatile market, strictly control position sizes, set stop losses, and avoid sharp fluctuations caused by sudden news. SanDisk delivered a financial report that can be described as "explosive," with revenue, profit, and gross margin all hitting single-quarter all-time highs, while simultaneously announcing a new $14 billion stock repurchase plan.
📊 Financial Report: Comprehensive Outperformance Driven by AI
· Revenue: $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding market expectations of $8.39 billion.
· Net Profit: GAAP net profit of $6.903 billion (EPS $43.97); Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year.
· Gross Margin: Adjusted gross margin of 84.6%, well above market expectations of 81.5%.
The core engine is the AI-driven data center business: this segment generated $2.98 billion in revenue, doubling quarter-over-quarter and soaring nearly 13 times year-over-year (1298%). Additionally, SanDisk has signed 8 "New Business Model" (NBM) long-term agreements covering supply for the next four years, locking in minimum revenue of $93.9 billion.
📉 Why did the stock price fall instead of rise?
Despite the impressive financial report, the stock price dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. The main reason is that the guidance for the next quarter (FY2027 Q1) was "not impressive enough":
· Revenue Guidance: $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, below analysts' expectations of $11.16 billion.
· EPS Guidance: $44 to $46, midpoint $45, slightly below the expected $45.58.
· Gross Margin Guidance: 83% to 85%, flat with the current high level, no further expansion.
The stock price has already risen about 468% this year, with market expectations pushed to the extreme. When the guidance "only" meets expectations rather than significantly exceeding them, investors chose to take profits. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Even if the SPCX financial report is positive and the unlocking is not directly negative, the key is to watch out for the traps brought by the positive news.
Don't believe that "the negative news is over." The unlocked chips may not be dumped on the first day; they can still be sold on the second or third day.
Remember the phrase "I think so"—how many people got trapped above 120?
A huge 910 million shares are on the table, and as long as a negative condition is triggered, panic will snowball immediately.
I set the exit point at 105, just 0.3 away, currently at 114, so no rush to act.
The market is not all firm holders; many are just watchers. Once the trend changes, a stampede can happen anytime 🔥$SPCX