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Tonight at 20:30, the US July nonfarm payroll report will be released! This is the most important macroeconomic data of the month and may directly determine the Fed's next move.
Wall Street's forecast differs by 65,000; this is not just a disagreement, it's a "fight." Once the nonfarm payrolls are out tonight, the winner and loser will be clear—those who bet on the wrong direction will pay a heavy price.
At 20:30 tonight, the July nonfarm data will be announced. Institutional forecasts range from 18,000 to 83,000, an absurdly wide divergence—Goldman Sachs warns that "July nonfarm payrolls are likely to be below expectations with a significant downward revision to prior data," with June already revised down by 74,000.
The unemployment rate is what the Fed truly watches—currently 4.2% is propped up by people "giving up looking for work," and if the participation rate rebounds, the unemployment rate could break 4.3% at any time.
Three outcomes, three fates:
New jobs 50,000-80,000, unemployment rate slightly rises to 4.3%: Weak but not bad, this is what the market most wants to see. Rate hike expectations cool down, BTC could surge to 65,000.
New jobs 100,000+, unemployment rate unchanged: Employment is too strong, the Fed can confidently raise rates. Bank of America says "at most three hikes this year," BTC might be pushed back to 63,000.
New jobs below 30,000, or even negative growth: Recession fears come first, but rate cut expectations will also accelerate, leading to a drop then rise, with the greatest volatility.
After Wash abandoned forward guidance, data decides everything. Don't bet on direction before the data is released; wait for the results before making a move. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Tether Freeze Execution Delay Exposes Risk Control Time Gap
FlashRescue co-founder stated that Tether takes an average of over 2 hours from freeze proposal to actual execution. Some high-risk addresses exploit this time window to transfer involved funds, resulting in a reduced final frozen amount. The market interprets this as negative for stablecoin risk control trust, directly related to USDT. Tether's freezing capability has always been a compliance advantage for centralized stablecoins, but the execution process has a time gap, indicating that on-chain asset recovery is not "freeze upon discovery." For traders and institutions, the focus is not on USDT peg risk, but on the risk control expectations for payment, OTC, custody, and illicit fund interception scenarios being repriced. If more cases emerge, stablecoin issuers' freeze SLA and collaboration processes will become key concerns for regulators and institutional clients.
Source: PANews
#Crypto100W #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The latest meeting minutes released a clear hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 61.5%. Even though June's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, far below expectations, and employment data for the past two months were simultaneously revised down by 74,000, showing visible weakening in employment, stubborn wage growth remains stable at 3.5%, and core PCE stays high at 3.4%. Coupled with geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East causing oil prices to rebound, inflation risks are far more concerning to the Federal Reserve than short-term employment weakness. At this stage, inflation weighs more heavily than employment data, and the Fed will not easily shift to easing just because of a slight cooling in employment. Expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress volatility in the crypto market. I usually spend most of my time deeply engaged with content on the platform, relying on modest platform incentives to persistently share genuine insights about the crypto world. In terms of trading, I remain cautious and observant, not prematurely betting on rate cuts or hikes, patiently waiting for the market to gradually warm up.
$SNDK
This represents my personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Miners and On-Chain Costs: Is the Capitulation Over? ⚒️
⛏️ The movements of the miner community are a litmus test for the market bottom. Currently, Bitcoin's total network hashrate remains near the historical high of about 650 EH/s, with no large-scale "mining disaster-style capitulation" like in 2022. Although the hashrate is stable, miner revenue has sharply dropped due to the weak coin price, and some high-cost mining farms are approaching shutdown prices (around $53,000-$56,000).
💰 Miner holding indicators show that in the past week, miners' net selling volume was only about 80% of daily production, with the remaining 20% being hoarded. This contrasts sharply with the 2025 bull market peak when miners were liquidating their holdings. The miner community is shifting from "forced selling" to "selective hoarding," which is a positive signal of reduced supply-side pressure.
📊 The Realized Price is currently about $32,000, while the MVRV ratio (market value/realized value) is about 2.0. Historical patterns indicate that when MVRV falls below 1.5, it enters an absolute undervaluation zone. The current 2.0 is neutral to slightly low, with room below but not to the point of collapse.
🔗 On-chain profit and loss ratio: About 72% of short-term holders (STH) are currently at a loss, with an average $BTC cost basis around $67,000. This means that if the price rebounds to $66,000-$67,000, there will be huge selling pressure from unlocking losses. This is why the $66,500-$67,200 range is defined as the "bear stronghold."
📌 Conclusion: The miner capitulation wave has basically ended, but the on-chain trapped positions are heavy. The market needs time or very strong positive news to digest the "dead pile" above $67,000.
✅ Bullish: Miners reluctant to sell + strong hashrate, network fundamentals are healthy.
❌ Bearish: Large number of short-term holders trapped, $67,000 will be the "gateway of hell" for bulls' rebound. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ Upbit Delists BONK: South Korea's Liquidity Gateway Is Closing
On August 7, Upbit announced it will terminate BONK/KRW and BONK/USDT trading support at 14:00 on September 7, with withdrawal services retained until October 7. BONK was previously placed under trading warning due to security incidents and disclosure issues. After about a month of review, Upbit ultimately decided to delist it.
My judgment is that this is not a routine cleanup of low-volume trading pairs. The KRW market has always been an important liquidity gateway for altcoins. After BONK loses Upbit support, the capacity for South Korean funds to absorb it will significantly decline; however, this decision by a single exchange does not mean the Solana network, BONK contract, or global trading channels will cease to operate, so it cannot be directly equated with the project being worthless.
Going forward, watch whether Bithumb and Coinone will delist simultaneously; whether BONK's KRW price will show sustained discounting; whether the project team can publicly disclose the security incident investigation and remediation plan; and whether Upbit's trading volume and withdrawal scale abnormally increase before September 7. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ In the past two days, there have been rumors online that Duan Yongping "reduced holdings" of Pop Mart, which he previously claimed he would "not sell for ten years."
Today I checked and found that Duan himself explained it. Let me summarize:
1. Duan Yongping likes to sell options, usually focusing on selling puts. (Refer to my previous article on cash secured puts)
2. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange limits the total amount of puts sold, so some positions use a covered call strategy, which means buying the underlying stock and selling calls. He generally sells ATM calls directly, which have rich premiums.
Covered call and cash secured call are mathematically basically equivalent, which can be derived through option equivalence formulas.
3. Put expired means the sold put did not fall below the strike price and expired worthless. Covered call being called means the price rose above the call strike price, and the underlying stock was called away (sold passively).
Both of these generate premium income from selling options rather than bearish selling.
4. Duan Yongping still loves his iPad 🫢 The $CORE community is flooded with a hot article titled "CORE is the severely underestimated 'biological son' of Bitcoin," a well-packaged BTCFi narrative attracting many retail investors to stop and take notice.
Many newcomers are immediately tempted after reading it, firmly believing that now is the golden bottom-buying opportunity.
Unpacking this marketing blind box, beneath the glossy promotional shell lie layers of carefully designed logical traps.
First layer of packaging: Relying on Bitcoin's hash power, it has Bitcoin-level network security.
The truth is a typical word game.
Miner hash power delegation purely chases CORE token rewards, which is just a short-term business with no permanent binding. When profits decline, hash power can collectively withdraw at any time.
Bitcoin's hash power does not provide security protection for CORE; the two public chains are independent.
The so-called hash power moat is just a label for external hype. Many promotions deliberately confuse concepts, misleading investors to think that by leveraging BTC hash power, they have the same level of security.
Second layer of packaging: CORE is Bitcoin's "biological son," enjoying native bloodline dividends.
This is the easiest cognitive misdirection to trap newcomers.
Bitcoin Core (the official Bitcoin client) and CoreDAO $CORE have no connection whatsoever, nor any intersection with Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin's early development team.
The project is just an independent public chain, borrowing Bitcoin miner resources to tell a story, forcibly riding on Bitcoin's lineage to create associations.
The native Bitcoin community has long been skeptical of such hash power-riding narratives; the "biological son" is a marketing persona fabricated from start to finish.
Third layer of packaging: Fully compatible with EVM, Ethereum DeFi projects can easily migrate, and the ecosystem will soon explode.
EVM compatibility has long been a basic threshold for public chains and is not an exclusive advantage.
Whether developers migrate depends mainly on on-chain liquidity and real user base, notThe same popular list, changed to one hour and twenty-four hours later, what different conclusions are there?
The most common misunderstanding with the one-hour popular list is to directly treat the total volume as a trend. OKX Onchain OS's official snapshot at 11:00 on August 7 (China time) shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 36, 22, and 11 times respectively in the last hour; the twenty-four-hour totals were 1325, 731, and 482 times.
To compare the two windows, you can first divide the twenty-four-hour total by twenty-four, then compare it with the latest one hour. The results are BTC 0.65 times, ETH 0.72 times, SOL 0.55 times. A value above one means the latest hour is more active than the daily average, below one means relatively quiet; this only discusses speed, not returns.
By this measure, BTC is clearly slowing down, ETH is clearly slowing down, SOL is clearly slowing down. The asset with the highest original mention volume is not necessarily the one heating up fastest relative to its own baseline. Separating "most volume" and "fastest acceleration" can reduce many misjudgments.
Tone also needs another layer of consideration. BTC is slightly bullish dominant, with bullish and bearish proportions at 42% and 25% respectively; ETH is clearly bullish dominant, with ratios of 41% and 18%; SOL is slightly bullish dominant, with ratios of 45% and 27%.
The key here is the denominator. ETH has only 22 mentions in one hour, SOL 11 mentions, so a few new texts can significantly change the percentages; although BTC has a larger sample, it may also include retweets and quotes of the same event. When ranking by percentage, do not forget how many texts are behind each group.
The twenty-four-hour average is also not a perfect baseline. It mixes different market sessions and smooths out spikes before and after announcements. A higher latest hour may be a new event or just an active period; a lower one may be natural cooling. Without continuous snapshots, a single speed can only describe the current position.
You can also do a simple reverse check: if an asset's mention speed exceeds double but the bearish proportion also rises simultaneously, this should not be written as "heat turning bullish"; if the bullish proportion is very high but speed is only half the long-window average, it is also inappropriate to say new consensus is expanding. Putting these two counterexamples into the judgment framework first can avoid chasing conclusions based on a single attractive number.
When I read this kind of list, I divide it into three layers: find turning points in one hour, see if it can continue in four hours, and confirm if it becomes the main theme of the whole day in twenty-four hours. Finally, put spot trading volume, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain activity back to see if there is real market participation behind the attention.
If the speed ranking of the three assets completely changes in the next round, this ranking is just a time slice; if the same asset leads continuously and the sentiment gap remains stable after sample size increases, then it is worth raising the tracking priority. Although this conditional judgment does not have an eye-catching "must rise" sentence, it is more convenient to verify right or wrong later.
Therefore, this set of dual-window data is suitable to answer "where is heating up," but not suitable to answer "where to go next" alone. Currently, the speed and tone of the three assets are not completely consistent; preserving this difference is closer to the data itself than compressing all numbers into a single bullish or bearish view. Tonight at 8:30, the US nonfarm payrolls are coming.
Last month only added 57,000 jobs, and the previous two months were revised down by 74,000. Honestly, US employment is no longer about "whether it will cool down," but about how fast it will decline.
Tonight, I’m watching three scenarios:
Too strong (100,000+): Stocks and bonds both sell off, high-valuation sectors like tech are the first to suffer, gold will also be pushed down — this happened once in June.
Just right (50,000-90,000): The market’s preferred script, the economy doesn’t collapse but the Fed’s pressure eases a bit, stocks, gold, and crypto all feel comfortable.
Too weak (close to 0 or even negative): Don’t pop the champagne yet, this signals recession anxiety, not a rate cut dividend. Gold will be bought heavily, but stocks and crypto usually rise first then fall, because rate cuts can’t solve corporate profit issues.
More than the number itself, I care more about whether the previous two months will be revised down again. The last revision down of 74,000 actually had more impact than the number itself.
No matter which way it goes tonight, don’t just look at the headline number in the news. Check how the 10-year US Treasury reacts — that’s what truly determines the next moves for stocks, gold, and crypto.
Which scenario are you betting on?
#NonfarmPayrolls #FOMC #USStockMarket #Gold #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #NFP #MacroTrading #Liquidity Macro Chessboard: Gold Surges 4%, Why Is $BTC Playing Dead? 🌍
🥇 On August 5, spot gold skyrocketed, surging 4.48% intraday to break through $4200, and on August 6 it hit a seven-week high at $4300! Global capital is flooding into gold, betting on weak US employment → easing rate hike expectations → a frenzy for interest-free assets. However, Bitcoin has been watching coldly the whole time, circling around 64000. Why?
🚧 Three major structural breakpoints block $BTC's macro transmission:
Breakpoint 1 (US-Asia split): Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, with US institutions selling vs Asian retail buying, forming a perfect long-short hedge, completely offsetting macro bullishness with internal selling pressure.
Breakpoint 2 (Real interest rate drain): US real yields (TIPS) have soared to the highest level since 2008, making the opportunity cost of holding BTC frighteningly high. Institutions would rather buy 4.5% yielding Treasuries than bet on volatile risk assets.
Breakpoint 3 (Fed infighting): Governor Cook turns hawkish (rate hikes if inflation doesn’t drop), while ADP data at only 44,000 (far below the expected 75,000) pressures for rate cuts. CME shows a 55% chance of a September hike, with the dollar index and US bond yields pulling in opposite directions, leaving risk assets confused.
📉 Stablecoin indicators are shrinking across the board: USDT and USDC have collectively lost nearly $15 billion in liquidity, and the crypto market’s internal “ammunition” is drying up. Without incremental funds, what can Bitcoin use to break out?
📌 Conclusion: Before US Treasury yields substantially turn downward, Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent bull market. Without macro tailwinds, BTC can only maintain a choppy bottoming phase.
✅ Bullish: If the Fed signals a clear rate cut, BTC will take off instantly, as gold has already shown.
❌ Bearish: Current macro liquidity continues to tighten, and BTC’s safe-haven correlation with gold has broken. $BTC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 The AI memory bull case is becoming less about scarcity alone and more about who can convert scarcity into durable earnings. WDC and Sandisk falling despite beats, alongside pressure in Korean memory names, suggests expectations may already demand cleaner guidance and stronger margins.
Meanwhile, reported memory trims in some Nvidia Rubin Ultra models expose the other side of tight HBM supply: pricing power can rise while shipment capacity and downstream valuations face constraints. My read is that supply tightness remains supportive, but the market is shifting from rewarding the theme to testing execution. Not advice, just analysis.
#AIMemoryBullTest #OKXOrbitFinally understood! US stocks = the barometer, crypto = the amplifier 🔥 Core logic of SanDisk storage trading
Now, whether veterans or newcomers in the circle, everyone is flocking to US stocks storage and SanDisk sectors 📈
The reason is simple: huge volatility, explosive game space
Daily swings of 20% up or down are normal, much more fun than big coin altcoins, with maxed out fault tolerance + odds!
I have long held positions in both US AI tech stocks and crypto, and have summarized a top-tier linked trading mindset, minimalist but super practical ✅
1. US stocks set the direction, crypto amplifies the sentiment
US stocks are the market barometer, crypto is the sentiment amplifier!
- Microsoft, Google, Nvidia earnings keep pouring capital into AI computing power 👉 the industry trend is not over
Directly add positions in crypto AI and storage concepts to capture ultra-high sentiment premiums not found in US stocks 🚀
2. If earnings miss expectations, immediately retreat to safety
Once US stocks show all good news priced in and earnings guidance disappoints
Crypto will definitely double down on the drop, indiscriminately stabbing down ❗
If the market is wrong, immediately clear high-risk altcoins and retreat to BTC + stablecoins to survive 🛡️
3. Before major earnings reports, reduce leverage
Giant earnings reports = biggest black swan source
Any after-hours volatility in US stocks triggers chain liquidations in crypto
Reduce positions and leverage early, don’t bet on news or luck 💯
Key explanation: SanDisk’s explosive earnings + $10 billion buyback, why still falling? 📉
1. Good news priced in early
The market has already risen in advance, earnings release is just funds cashing out and running.
2. Market worries about cycle peak
Current high profits rely on price hikes, long-term expansion and overcapacity risks are huge.
3. High growth unsustainable
Doubling growth is hard to maintain, funds directly kill valuations in phases!
Short-term storage sector is undergoing sentiment clearing + valuation reversion, with high game risk ⚠️
But the long-term logic of AI’s massive data and cold storage demand remains intact!
Be patient to bottom out, once panic selling pressure is over, it will be the starting point of a new big rally 🔥
$SNDK $BTC Tonight's market focus is entirely on the July nonfarm payrolls!
First, let's look at some established signals: the trend of new job additions has been continuously declining over the past four years. Post-pandemic, a single month below 100,000 is already considered weak, and the seasonal performance in July and August over the past three years has been poor.
The second quarter is even weaker—June nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000, and April and May combined were revised down by 74,000, meaning actual employment is worse than it appears. Wednesday's ADP was only 44,000, hitting a new low for the year, with a clear decline in the production sector. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, mainly due to supply contraction rather than demand-driven. After the short-term pulse fades, July nonfarm payrolls are very likely to look bad.
The key question is "how bad":
Slightly below expectations, wages not rebounding, unemployment rate not sharply rising—this is the market's favorite scenario: a mild cooldown, rising expectations for rate cuts, and no need to price in a recession.
Significantly below expectations, the market will price in a recession first, not rate cuts. The August 2024 "8.5 flash crash" serves as a cautionary tale, and currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is sensitive, so the dollar, yen, US Treasuries, and carry trades may resonate and amplify volatility.
In summary: a mild deterioration in nonfarm payrolls is positive, too strong would reinforce rate hike expectations, and too weak would ignite recession fears. The market doesn't want it to be worse and worse, but just right—continuing to cool down, but not letting the economy go up in smoke! $BTC $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ 8.7 Intra-day Deep Review｜Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls (announced at 20:30) Countdown to Volatility
Eve of Nonfarm: The spring is compressed, sideways consolidation for 36 hours, waiting for a data trigger
BTC 30-day implied volatility at 36% (lowest since late May), sideways washout, upper and lower wicks clearing floating positions, a typical "low volatility → high volatility" critical point.
Price stuck in a small box between 63,200–64,379, 64,000 is the intra-day long-short pivot, 62,000 is the swing life-or-death support, 65,500+ is the first resistance zone.
Altcoins show extreme divergence, contract longs and shorts both liquidated, chasing pumps and dumps easily hit by wicks.
Macro leading indicators conflict (root of nonfarm divergence)
ADP small nonfarm: +44,000 (expected 70,000+, lowest this year) → signal of cooling employment
Initial jobless claims: 199,000 (expected 202,000, lowest since 1969) → signal of employment resilience
Market pricing: Nonfarm consensus +80,000 / unemployment rate 4.2%, but institutional expectations vary greatly; tonight is not about "guessing the number" but "guessing the expectation gap."
Three nonfarm scenarios (announced at 20:30)
Strong data (nonfarm >85,000, unemployment rate <4.1%)
Bearish pressure, watch if 63,200 can hold
Meets expectations (nonfarm ≈80,000, unemployment rate ≈4.2%)
→ Range-bound, 62,000-66,000
Weak data (nonfarm <75,000, unemployment rate >4.3%)
→ Bullish momentum, watch if 64,379 can break through
Note hidden variable: if hourly wages rise month-over-month, even with weak nonfarm, the market may interpret it as "inflation stickiness," leading to a rise then fall.
Observation approach
Before data release: watch more, trade less, let the bullets fly a bit
After data release: wait for the first wave of wicks to finish (about 5-10 minutes), then observe if key price levels break or hold effectively
Regardless of long or short, manage risk well, do not hold losing positions
If trend is wrong, exit immediately; if trend is right, hold firmly; strictly no holding losing positions; leverage cost-performance is very poor during low volatility periods.
Core transmission chain of nonfarm
Nonfarm data → Fed September rate pricing adjustment → USD/US Treasury yield movement → Crypto liquidity + liquidation resonance → BTC wick volatility
The essence tonight is not "whether the data is good or bad," but that the data forces institutional divergence out at once; the longer the sideways, the harsher the wicks.
The above is a technical analysis scenario, not investment advice; for contracts, strictly control position size and stop loss. $BTC $ETH The core conclusion of today's global markets is: **Risk appetite has shifted from previously strong to cautiously diverged. **Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower, the Dow pulled back more noticeably, and internal tech stocks remained divided. Oil prices rose again due to uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz agreement, with the dollar strengthening in sync with US Treasury yields. Tonight's US nonfarm payroll report will be the most important variable in the direction choice, potentially directly changing market expectations for the Fed's September policy. 1. What happened overnight? 1. U.S. stocks pause to rise, funds await non-farm payroll confirmation Facts: At the close of U.S. stocks on August 6, the Dow Jones fell 464.02 points, a drop of 0.85%, to 53,885.10; The S&P 500 fell 0.18% to 7,710.03 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.06% to 26,348.35 points. The number of falling stocks on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq outnumbered the gaining, with overall trading volume slightly below the average level of the past 20 trading days. Market reaction: The index did not show obvious panic, but after previous consecutive gains, the willingness to chase higher prices clearly declined. Industrials, materials, and real estate sectors weakened, while energy rose following oil price rebounds. Underlying logic: Two factors driving the market up in recent days—falling oil prices and corporate earnings beating expectations—have both shown marginal changes. Oil prices rebounded again, some tech companies plunged after earnings reports, and with nonfarm payroll data about to be released, funds are more inclined to reduce risk exposure first and wait for new macro signals. 2. Tech stocks show divergent earnings, but the market continuesThe "$BTC ETF fund 'scam'": Money is coming in, so why does the price remain completely stagnant?💸
🇺🇸 The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of as much as $754 million this week, marking the best single-week performance since April! BlackRock's IBIT alone took 60% of the share, sucking in $243 million in a single day on August 6. The data looks incredibly impressive, but the price is like a stagnant pool—what's the catch here?
🎭 Nexo analyst Liya Kalchev reveals the truth: The current inflows are very likely arbitrage funds rather than long-term believers! Institutions are playing the "spot buy + futures short" basis arbitrage game, where the buy orders are immediately offset by hedging orders, causing the price to fail to rise. Renowned market maker Wintermute urgently stated: If the price still doesn't rise after buy orders are absorbed, it means marginal buyers are not genuinely bullish, which is a dangerous warning!
📉 Another bombshell piece of evidence: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium territory for 80 consecutive days, setting the longest historical streak of negative premiums! This means US institutions are frantically selling on Coinbase, while Asian buyers (South Korea, Japan) are picking up at low levels. One side is dumping, the other is supporting, so the price naturally remains flat.
🌍 Macro bleeding effect: The US Treasury real yields are at their highest level since 2008, with funds rushing into the bond market. USDT supply has shrunk from 190 billion in April to 183 billion, and USDC from 79.5 billion to 72 billion—stablecoins are contracting, and incremental funds are reluctant to enter the market.
📌 Conclusion: ETF inflows ≠ price increase. As long as arbitrage funds don't retreat, $BTC will find it hard to break through 65,000 in a day. A real breakout requires seeing Coinbase premium turn positive and volume expand; otherwise, all rebounds are illusions.
✅ Positive: ETF net inflows at least indicate that big money is not bearish and there is support at the bottom.
❌ Negative: The inflows are arbitrage in nature, dominated by US institutional selling pressure, making short-term digestion difficult. $BTC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Cooling employment, is the Fed's September rate cut expectation heating up?
The U.S. job market is sending an increasingly clear signal that the economy is cooling but has not yet stalled.
In July, ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, below market expectations, marking a relatively weak level in recent months. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain around 200,000, showing no significant deterioration.
Companies are starting to reduce hiring but have not yet begun large-scale layoffs. This is actually the scenario the Fed most wants to see.
Over the past two years, the Fed has been worried that too strong employment would push up wages and inflation. Now, as the labor market gradually cools, it opens space for rate cuts.
The market is currently re-betting on a September rate cut. The core logic has shifted from simply looking at employment data to judging whether cooling employment can suppress inflation.
I think it looks more like a soft landing rather than a recession.
Because the U.S. economy still shows resilience, unemployment claims data remain healthy, and companies have not entered a large-scale layoff cycle. At the same time, productivity improvements brought by AI may also help companies reduce cost pressures.
But risks remain.
If employment rapidly deteriorates in the future, market trading logic will shift from rate cut optimism to recession concerns.
So the two most important things ahead are:
First, whether nonfarm employment continues to cool.
Second, whether CPI can continue to approach the 2% target.
Currently, the market is hoping for the best-case scenario:
The economy gradually cools, inflation continues to decline, and the Fed begins to cut rates.
If this logic is realized, the dollar may come under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, and tech stocks and crypto markets could have opportunities for new catalysts.
But if employment suddenly stalls, market sentiment could quickly reverse.
In the coming weeks, nonfarm payrolls and CPI will determine the Fed's path in September.
Not investment advice DYOR Breaking: Russia beats the US to it. 🇷🇺
Putin has officially signed Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory law.
Key points:
• Ordinary investors can buy cryptocurrency through licensed institutions (up to about $3,700 per year)
• Qualified investors have no limit
• Exchanges must be licensed, meet capital requirements, and be regulated
• Cryptocurrency payments are still banned domestically in Russia but allowed for cross-border settlements
• Main provisions will take effect on September 1, 2026.
My view:
This is not Russia embracing Crypto, but rather starting to recognize Crypto as an asset, not a currency.
What’s really worth noting is the last point—allowing cross-border settlements.
Against the backdrop of US dollar settlements increasingly affected by geopolitical factors, cryptocurrency is gradually becoming another settlement tool for international trade, not just a retail speculation target.
Even more interestingly, Russia has completed legislation while the US CLARITY Act is still stuck in the Senate.
If more countries establish compliance frameworks, the valuation logic of Crypto will slowly shift from "speculative asset" to "global financial infrastructure."
My judgment: This is a long-term positive. The short-term impact is limited, but in the coming years, the real beneficiary may not be altcoins, but $BTC. #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 🤗 Extra: The CLARITY bill was again not scheduled for a vote on August 7, postponed to the September 14 session.
Online rumors say last delay caused $BTC to crash from 97000 to 64000, are you guys scared haha.
Actually, the real data is like this: On January 14, 2026, $BTC price was 97039, on January 15, the delay markup day, it fell back below 96k, on January 21, tariff rhetoric pushed it down to 87901, then it ground down for half a year, June low was 61881, on July 21, due to CLARITY progress, it bounced back above 64000, today August 7 delayed again, current price 64300.
It’s not a single delay crash, but multiple delays + zero interest rate cut 85% + August weak season collusion.
Do you guys think my $BTC at over 40k has a chance now? 😊
But the CLARITY delay itself won’t push it down, at most it will poke down to just over 50k. To really see 40k requires zero interest rate cut lockdown + tariff escalation + black swan events all hitting together. Too tough 😂
Every time CLARITY is delayed, $BTC falls, but it’s always a grinding bottom correction, not a crash.
Let’s see how low it can go this time, stay tuned 😊#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
The SpaceX unlocking event followed a completely unexpected script.
On August 6th, 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, with potential selling pressure exceeding $100 billion. Normally, with such a large proportion of shares flooding the market, the price should face downward pressure. But what happened? SpaceX rose about 6%.
What does this indicate? It shows that the market had already driven SpaceX down from 225 to 108 two months in advance, and those who wanted to exit had already done so. When the unlocking day arrived, there was actually little left to sell off, and some funds were even willing to buy at this level.
This event provides an important observation window for the crypto community.
If a trillion-level unlocking like SpaceX’s can be smoothly absorbed by the market, it means the current market liquidity is better than many expect. This is a relatively positive reference for crypto projects facing unlocking pressure— as long as the project’s fundamentals are sound, unlocking doesn’t necessarily lead to a crash; sometimes it can even trigger a market reversal.
SpaceX’s rise wasn’t because its fundamentals suddenly improved, but because the largest overhang on the market was removed. Once uncertainty is eliminated, the market begins to reprice.
This logic also applies to crypto. Projects suppressed by unlocking expectations for a long time, if their fundamentals are solid, the day the unlocking is realized might actually mark the end of the downside.
That’s why I always say, don’t panic before unlocking; wait for the unlocking to happen and then assess the direction. SpaceX has already provided a reference answer—if a trillion-level unlocking can lead to a rise, you can draw your own conclusions.
$ETH $BICO $SNDK Don't be fooled, this is not a bull market signal
BTC active addresses have reached 980,000, the highest since December 2024. Retail investors see this data and get excited, thinking new money is coming in
But the reality is—Coldcard has collapsed, and everyone is moving out
The hardware wallet, recognized in the community as "the safest," has a random number generation vulnerability. Attackers can calculate private keys if they know the device ID and clock value
Since July 30, over 7,300 addresses have been scanned, 1,596 BTC lost, worth over $100 million. At least 15 attackers are operating simultaneously
The chain is completely blown up, about 890,000 BTC transferred within a week, even wallets dormant for 12.7 years were awakened, with 500 BTC moved overnight
In short, the 980,000 active addresses are driven by panic, not liquidity
Retail investors think a bull market is coming, but it's actually a large-scale money migration 😶#Storage stocks plunge after earnings, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
🔥Storage stocks collectively fell after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market coming to an end?
Just saw this topic, honestly it struck a chord. Recently, the storage chip sector has indeed fallen quite badly. SK Hynix has halved from its peak, SanDisk also plunged after its earnings report, dragging the entire semiconductor sector down.
But are their earnings bad? Absolutely not.
SK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit rose 557% year-over-year, Micron’s gross margin hit 84.9%, a record high. HBM capacity is sold out through 2026, and UBS predicts HBM demand will grow 90% year-over-year this year. In the past, this would be a huge positive, and the stock price should have soared.
So why the drop? Simply put: market expectations are running ahead of earnings.
🔴 Good earnings ≠ stock price rise, this is the biggest trap for tech stocks this year
SanDisk’s earnings are actually not bad; revenue and profit are growing, data center business maintains high growth, and over half of the supply for fiscal 2027 is locked in by long-term agreements. But what does the market complain about? The next quarter’s guidance is slightly below the "already very high expectations," and consumer business revenue dropped 32% year-over-year.
In plain terms: it’s not that storage demand disappeared, but everyone previously fantasized about "always exceeding expectations," and now that growth might slow, they start to sell off early.
SK Hynix is even more typical. Q2 operating profit exceeded the total for all of 2025, yet the stock price dropped nearly 20% after earnings. Why? Because the market’s valuation was based on "forever doubling growth," and once signals of slowing price increases appear, capital runs faster than a rabbit.
🟡 The fundamentals of AI memory haven’t collapsed
Although stock prices are falling, the supply-demand pattern for AI memory has not reversed.
What’s the status of HBM now? SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron’s combined capacity is basically sold out through 2026. Nvidia’s Rubin GPU is in early production, and HBM4 shipments start in Q4 this year. UBS forecasts HBM demand of 33.1 billion Gb in 2026, up 90% year-over-year, and another 77% increase in 2027.
More importantly, the profit distribution in the storage industry has undergone structural changes. The three major manufacturers have shifted over 80% of advanced process capacity to HBM and high-end DDR5, severely squeezing traditional consumer-grade DRAM and NAND. What does this mean? The AI memory seller’s market can last at least until mid-2028.
So the fundamentals haven’t collapsed; what collapsed are valuations and sentiment.
🟢 Lessons for crypto brothers
The "exploding earnings, plummeting stock prices" trend in storage chips is exactly the same as many tracks in the crypto world.
Think about the previous AI concept coins: project teams release a white paper and paint a big picture, and the coin price flies tenfold first. When it actually lands, even if the data is good, as long as it doesn’t meet the "most optimistic expectations," it crashes. This is the classic "buy the hype, sell the facts."
The current storage sector is going through this phase. The long-term logic of AI memory still holds, but the short-term stock price has overdrawn too much future. The market has switched from "speculating on dreams" to "looking at valuations," and is extremely sensitive to any data that falls short of expectations.
💡 My view
The AI memory bull market is not over, but the "buy anything and it goes up" phase is gone.
Next, the storage sector will differentiate: the true leaders with HBM capacity and Nvidia orders (SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung) will digest valuations with volatility, waiting for the next catalyst; while pure concept-chasing second- and third-tier stocks may be exposed.
For traders, now is not a good time to bottom-fish storage stocks. During the emotional ebb, there are still lower bottoms. But from a mid- to long-term allocation perspective, after this wave of panic subsides and the leaders’ valuations return to reasonable levels, AI memory remains one of the most certain tracks in semiconductors.
After all, to get AI running, computing power is the engine, memory is the fuel tank. The engine can be replaced, but the fuel in the tank can’t be less.
👇 Do you think this adjustment in storage chips is enough? How long can the AI memory bull market last? Let’s discuss in the comments.Don't be fooled, this is not a bull market signal
BTC active addresses have reached 980,000, the highest since December 2024. Retail investors see this data and get excited, thinking new money is coming in
But the truth is—Coldcard has collapsed, and everyone is moving out
The hardware wallet known in the community as "the safest" has a random number generation vulnerability; attackers can calculate private keys if they know the device ID and clock value
Since July 30, over 7,300 addresses have been compromised, 1,596 BTC lost, worth over $100 million. At least 15 attackers are operating simultaneously
The chain is completely blown up, about 890,000 BTC transferred within a week, even wallets dormant for 12.7 years were awakened, with 500 BTC moved overnight
In short, the 980,000 active addresses are driven by panic, not liquidity
Retail investors think a bull market is coming, but actually, a large amount of money is relocating 😶In the summer of 2026, South Korea's capital market experienced a deleveraging storm worthy of being written into financial textbooks. SK Hynix, the global leader in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), saw its stock price nearly halved in just over a month; The 2x leveraged ETF linked to SK Hynix—7709—saw its largest drop of over 85% during the same period, becoming one of the most representative cases of leveraged product crashes in Korea in recent years. Many people simply interpret this plunge as an "AI bubble burst" or "SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations." In fact, neither of these is the core reason. What truly causes the market to spiral out of control is not the fundamentals of a single company, but a nationwide financial experiment driven by leverage, capital structure, and investor sentiment. This experiment ultimately proved one thing: ups can be amplified by leverage, but downturns can be magnified exponentially by leverage. When the market enters a deleveraging phase, even the best companies may experience declines far exceeding fundamentals due to trading structure. 1. Why did SK Hynix nearly halve its price in just over a month? As a core supplier in the global HBM market, SK Hynix should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI wave. Over the past two years, with the rapid development of generative AI, HBM has almost become an indispensable core component of AI servers. Whether it's NVIDIA GPUs, AMD Instinct, or major cloud providers building AI data centers, all require massive HBM support. As a result, SK Hynix has become the focus of global capital pursuit. June 2026#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The Federal Reserve is currently taking a hawkish stance.
Although employment data has started to weaken, as long as inflation doesn't come down, this slight employment softness is not enough for it to cut interest rates.
Simply put: inflation holds more sway right now.
Unless there is a widespread surge in unemployment, high interest rates will persist for a long time. The stock market and crypto space are unlikely to see a strong one-way trend; mostly, they will fluctuate back and forth. $SNDK $BTC $ETH #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Uniswap Enters the Launchpad Arena, Can UNI Unlock a New Narrative?
DEX leader Uniswap officially steps into the launchpad space, with Pools.trade launching on Robinhood Chain, and a web-based Launches aggregated issuance portal going live, consolidating token issuance, discovery, and trading all within its own product, no longer just a secondary market trading tool. Following the news, UNI surged sharply, with a nearly 60% monthly increase, as the market began hyping a new integrated "issuance + trading" narrative.
Here’s a simple explanation of the product’s core logic: Pools.trade offers two token issuance modes—4-hour Crowd Launch auctions and Instant Launch one-click token issuance; once issued, tokens automatically connect to Uniswap v4 pools with liquidity permanently locked, reducing rug pull risks. There are no traditional launchpad high listing fees, only the pool’s basic trading fees. Previously, Uniswap only handled token turnover after listing; now it directly enters the token birth stage, capturing the full lifecycle traffic of meme coins and new tokens.
However, there is a practical issue: currently, this launchpad is limited to Robinhood Chain and has not expanded to Ethereum mainnet or other public chains. At this stage, it is a small-scale beta test, not yet a full-chain game changer.
The market is clearly divided into bulls and bears, so let’s break down two scenarios.
Scenario One: Launchpad narrative materializes, UNI undergoes value revaluation (Bullish logic)
1. Traffic closed loop forms: a large volume of meme and new tokens circulate within the Uniswap ecosystem from issuance, driving trading volume, which generates fees. Coupled with the activated v4 fee switch, fee returns drive UNI burn, creating a positive flywheel of "issuance - trading volume - fees - burn."
2. Capturing launchpad market share: traditional launchpads generally charge high fees and have exit risks. Uniswap’s brand endorsement and permanent locked pools will attract many project teams and retail users, with Robinhood Chain’s popularity boosting overall protocol revenue.
3. Future cross-chain expansion: if this model succeeds, expanding to multiple chains will transform Uniswap from just a DEX into the core infrastructure for token issuance in DeFi, directly unlocking UNI’s valuation ceiling.
Scenario Two: Concept outweighs substance, new narrative hard to realize (Bearish logic)
1. Scene heavily reliant on meme hype: launchpad trading volume depends heavily on MEME popularity; if market sentiment cools, new token issuance and trading volume will shrink rapidly, directly reducing revenue.
2. Currently limited to Robinhood Chain with a small ecosystem, making it difficult to bring explosive revenue growth to the overall protocol in the short term; more of a thematic hype.
3. Intense industry competition: established launchpads and native public chain launchpads will fiercely compete, while a flood of junk and scam tokens may cause large-scale pitfalls, damaging Uniswap’s brand reputation.
4. UNI’s biggest pain point remains: the token is still primarily governance-focused; launchpad revenue is indirectly passed through fee switches, not direct UNI dividends, making the revenue transmission chain long and realization slow.
Practical insights for trading:
1. Distinguish between theme and fundamentals: this UNI rally is driven by the v4 fee switch + new launchpad narrative + Robinhood Chain hype. The launchpad is a new story but still early stage; don’t mistake hype for realized performance.
2. Focus on two core validation metrics:
① Real trading volume and protocol fee increments generated by Pools.trade on Robinhood Chain;
② Whether the product will expand to Ethereum mainnet and other major chains.
Only if these two points materialize will the narrative truly convert into value; if it remains a small L2 chain test, it’s mostly short-term hype.
3. Don’t ignore broader market constraints: UNI is a DeFi sector leader; if the overall crypto market weakens, even the best narrative can’t independently drive a major bull run.
In summary: Uniswap’s entry into the launchpad space brings imagination for UNI but is still in early testing. The narrative is attractive but requires real trading volume and cross-chain deployment to validate. Avoid blindly chasing highs; it’s a thematic hype phase, so risk control comes first. Saying Dogecoin could eventually reach zero isn't a prediction—it's a thought experiment. The real question is: under what conditions could a $10B+ asset actually lose all of its value? 1️⃣ Technological Obsolescence $DOGE still relies on the Scrypt algorithm and shares security with Litecoin through merged mining. If Litecoin's mining ecosystem were to weaken significantly, Dogecoin's network security could deteriorate as well. A more immediate challenge is competition from newer payment ecosys$BTC: Funds are buying, but the price is stuck; tonight's non-farm payrolls will reveal the outcome
Family, let's be straightforward.
Currently hovering around 64300-64400, touched 65026 yesterday but got pushed back, still stubbornly stuck in the 64000-65000 range. No new developments technically; the 64500-65000 resistance above is firmly suppressing, and 64100-63800 is the key support below.
The news is somewhat interesting.
Funds are buying: ETF net inflows this week are about 750 million, the best week since April, with BlackRock IBIT contributing the most. Whales have also accumulated over 20,000 coins since July 29, worth about 1.2 billion. Institutions and big players are quietly accumulating; this is not empty talk.
Macro is easing a bit: ADP was weak, rate hike expectations have cooled, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased. US stocks remain high, but BTC's ability to follow the rally is still weak, clearly decoupling.
The hard part is also here: The CLARITY Act is basically dead, the market has priced it in early. The real killer is tonight's non-farm payrolls; if the data is strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC is likely to get hit; if the data is weak, it might provide some breathing room.
Overall: Funds are supporting the bottom, but the price just can't break through 65000; selling pressure and cautious sentiment remain above. August is historically a weak month for Bitcoin, plus tonight's non-farm payrolls, so short-term is very likely to continue oscillating.
Long/short reference:
For longs, prioritize the 64100-63800 support zone, stop loss below 63500, target 64500-64800.
For shorts, prioritize the 64800-65000 resistance zone, stop loss above 65200, target first at 64100.
If the direction is unclear, trade less and avoid heavy positions. Manage your position size carefully.
The market has risks; invest cautiously. $BTC $ETH Brothers, tonight is the non-farm payrolls, and I'm not excited at all, even a bit anxious.
I know many people are hoping for the data to crash, thinking that if it crashes, the Fed will have to cut rates, and easing is bullish. But I've been burned by this before. There was a time when macro data bombed, and the whole network was shouting for a bull comeback, but the market reversed into a recession panic, and risk assets all got smashed, with long positions buried.
So now I'm especially cautious about these "obvious bullish signals." Poor data might indeed force a rate cut, but if it's bad enough to make the market think the economy is heading for a hard landing, the first reaction of capital is to flee, not to bottom-fish. The crypto market never holds up in the face of such panic.
Tonight's expected new jobs are about 70,000. If the data is just a bit worse than this, that's the market's favorite script: rate cut expectations heat up but not enough to scare people, giving BTC a chance to push up. If the data crashes too hard, say down to 30,000 or 40,000 or even lower, that's dangerous. Gold will likely surge first, US Treasury yields will plunge, which is a typical safe-haven move and not good for risk assets. Conversely, if the data beats expectations and employment remains strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC will probably have to pull back.
So my strategy tonight is one word: watch. My account now only holds some BTC and ETH call options, and my futures positions are almost untouched. This kind of data-driven volatility with spikes up and down is normal; rushing in to chase gains and cut losses is the easiest way to get hit from both sides. Watching with low leverage and light positions is nothing to be ashamed of.
💬 Interaction
Tonight's non-farm payrolls, do you think the data will beat expectations or bomb? Place your bets in the comments, and we'll see tomorrow who turns out to be the contrarian indicator. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, with the Dow ending its five-day winning streak. The overall decline was limited, merely a short-term profit-taking digestion, with no panic selling pressure. The market showed a particularly clear structural divergence, not an overall weakening.
Within tech stocks, there was a severe split between gains and losses. The storage chip sector was the most abnormal, opening lower and then rising before still falling broadly. Western Digital led the decline, with SanDisk and SK Hynix weakening simultaneously, while only Seagate closed slightly higher. Other chip sectors were relatively strong, with ARM, Qualcomm, AMD, and TSMC all rising, and Nvidia and Intel making slight adjustments.
The AI application sector was the biggest weak spot overnight, with sentiment cooling rapidly and many core stocks plunging. Datadog and Applovin fell over 19%, showing clear signs of short-term capital flight.
🚀 SpaceX Extreme Negative News Reversal Rally
The previous day, the stock plummeted over 13%, compounded by a trillion-level lock-up release, with the market unanimously bearish. However, on the day of the release, it surged over 6% against the trend, with market cap returning above 1.5 trillion and trading volume hitting a one-and-a-half-month high.
Core logic behind the reversal:
- Negative news was priced in early: The previous day’s plunge fully digested the lock-up pressure, releasing selling pressure in advance
- Shorts forced to cover: High short positions were wrong-footed, passive buying pushed the stock price up
- Strong institutional support: Multiple investment banks raised target prices and maintained buy ratings
- Retail investors eagerly bottom-fished: Opening buy volume far exceeded daily averages
Note: This is only the first round of lock-up releases; there will be large-scale releases at the end of this year and next year, so the rally is only a short-term sentiment recovery. Additionally, SpaceX’s joint $16.8 billion Texas superchip factory with Tesla is underway, providing ongoing hardware sector catalysts.
📰 Overnight Key News Highlights
- Hormuz Strait agreement not reached; U.S. continues negotiations, supporting oil prices sentimentally
- U.S. plans to delay polysilicon tariffs, setting a transition period, benefiting the domestic photovoltaic import supply chain
- High-end memory shortage; Nvidia plans to reduce new chip memory specifications
- OpenAI opens unlimited free text chat for users, countersues Apple for infringement claims
- U.S. introduces new policies cracking down on birth tourism and tightening birthright citizenship, with legal battles expected
- World’s first mRNA flu vaccine approved, accelerating sector commercialization
- Trump frequently liaises with new Fed chair; upcoming monetary policy is worth watching
In summary, the core of the overnight market was a trade on expectation gaps.
The widely bearish negative news materialized but failed to trigger a sell-off, even sparking a reversal rally.
Continue to closely monitor the tech sector and the follow-up performance of stocks with lock-up releases.
$SPCX $SKHY $WDC #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
Gold has fully played the "safe haven" role this week: spot prices touched around $4280, with a weekly gain close to 6%, reaching about a seven-week high. BTC, however, has been hovering around $64,000, moving sideways, showing a completely different rhythm.
According to the old logic, gold and BTC share the narrative of "scarce assets" and "hedging currency depreciation"; when gold surges, BTC should benefit somewhat. But this time, the market clearly did not follow that script.
The reason is not hard to find: these two groups of buyers are not buying into the same story at all.
Gold is driven by more direct macro expectations. Falling oil prices have eased inflation expectations, employment data has reignited market judgments on interest rate paths, and money naturally flows into traditional safe-haven assets. After breaking through $4200, gold continued to push above $4280, and trend-following funds, seeing the momentum, have become even more enthusiastic.
The environment facing BTC is much more complex.
In the long term, it has the story of a store of value, but in short-term trading, it never sheds the label of a risk asset. Whenever there is turbulence in U.S. tech stocks, many funds' first reaction is not "gold is up, so BTC should be bought too," but rather to reduce their high-volatility positions first.
Price movements confirm this. On August 4, BTC was around $63,500, then returned above $64,000, and around August 6, about $64,700. It did not continue to crash, indicating there were buyers at the lower levels; but compared to gold’s nearly 6% weekly gain, BTC clearly lacks a strong force of active buying.
Interestingly, BTC is not without support. Demand for spot ETFs remains resilient, and institutional funds have not truly withdrawn. The current state is more like "someone is holding it up, but no one is pushing it higher"—the price can hold above $60,000 but cannot break out in a continuous rally like gold.
One thing to be clear about here: long-term narratives can be shared, but short-term trading cannot be conflated.
Gold is currently trading on safe haven, interest rate, and inflation expectations; BTC, besides these, also needs to consider U.S. stock market risk appetite, ETF fund flows, leveraged positions, and whether new incremental funds are entering the entire crypto market.
Therefore, I won’t rush to conclude that BTC will immediately catch up just because gold has risen.
What’s more worth watching is: after gold stabilizes above $4200, if the macro environment continues to move toward easing, and BTC can hold around $63,000–$64,000, when risk appetite warms up, will funds reprice BTC’s "digital gold" attribute?
If by then gold remains high and BTC shows significant volume increase and sustained net inflows, this long-delayed catch-up rally will truly begin.Actually, I have always believed: the Federal Reserve is not as composed as the market imagines. Rate hikes are more like a political performance before the midterm elections, while rate cuts are the predetermined endgame — no matter how much the performance goes on, it can't change the inevitable conclusion of high interest rates coming to an end, which is also why I have been bullish all along.
Looking at the recent situation in the crypto space, Bitcoin $BTC has been repeatedly testing around $64,000, Ethereum $ETH hovers around $1,900. Weak ADP data once pushed BTC higher, but as hawkish signals reemerged, BTC and ETH fell about 2.8% and 3.6% respectively last week, with net outflows from spot ETFs.
ADP new jobs plunged to 44,000, less than half of last month, but PCE inflation remains high at 3.7%. Amid this data contradiction, Cook and Kashkari took turns calling for rate hikes, but everyone knows these tough words won't last long.
The capital market votes with real money. On August 4, Nvidia and Microsoft each contributed about $700 billion in market value, and the Nasdaq surged 2.13%; but once the probability of rate hikes rose, on August 6 memory chip stocks plummeted in response, Western Digital dropped 13%, SanDisk $SNDK fell over 6%, and AI software stocks also plunged.
Short-term hawkish slogans will continue to be shouted, but once the midterm elections are over, high interest rates must come to an end. Debt pressure and economic slowdown make rate cuts not an option but an inevitability. Nvidia, Western Digital, Bitcoin, Ethereum — all are waiting for that turning point, and that point is actually not far away.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Long and Short Crowding List
Continuously paying fees on one side is not scary; what is worth being cautious about is paying fees but failing to push the price.
$SKHYNIX current rate +0.3202%, settled +0.368% in the past 24 hours, at the 90th percentile of recent samples. The 15-minute rise with reduced positions looks more like short covering or overall position withdrawal, and new long positions have not yet been confirmed. Even with extreme rates, the most certain thing when OI contracts is deleveraging; which side is exiting cannot be concluded based on this data alone.
$BICO current rate -0.1828%, settled -0.408% in the past 24 hours, at the 2nd percentile of recent samples. Price is going down, and positions are also decreasing; position retreat is more certain than directional attribution. The crowding indicator remains, but risk exposure is decreasing, so treat this period as deleveraging.
$RIVER current rate +0.0122%, settled +0.084% in the past 24 hours, at the 84th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions are rising together; this fluctuation involves new positions, not just position reduction. Longs continue to pay fees and increase positions, crowding still has price feedback; once positions increase but price fails to move, risk will quickly rise.😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? Brothers, ALLO surged 14.07% today, currently priced at $0.3159, rebounding again from the $0.27‑0.30 support zone.
The past 4‑5 weeks' pattern is highly repetitive: rally → sharp drop → seeking support → rebound, more driven by capital momentum rather than solid long-term fundamentals.
Many say this time will be different, with the logic being that Cobot and Quack AI have completed integration, no longer just a whitepaper roadmap but with actual product implementation.
The core highlight of Allora is multi-AI model prediction + confidence-weighted output, with paper tests showing better results than ordinary averaging algorithms.
Key risk: the unlocking test on August 11
About 17.25 million ALLO tokens will be unlocked, corresponding to a market value of about $4.5 million.
In tokenomics, supporters and core contributors’ shares are locked long-term, with a staking reward cap of 12% combined with a smooth release mechanism, which will somewhat alleviate selling pressure.
Resistance: $0.38‑0.40, must break out with volume to confirm trend strengthening
Support: $0.27‑0.30, holding this bullishly is the bargaining chip; a valid break below means turning bearish again
Multiple bottom tests and rebounds only indicate that there is capital willing to buy at this level, not a solid bottom; a weakening market can still break through.
It is still a speculative market now; the product has progress but has not yet commercialized. The August 11 unlocking is a short-term touchstone; focus closely on support and volume.
Personal market analysis and information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ALLO
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METISSanDisk and Western Digital were sold off despite strong earnings reports due to guidance falling short of overheated expectations. The core conflict lies in the liquidation of long positions at high valuations versus the long-term supply-demand improvement in AI storage.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, with over two-thirds of growth driven by average selling price increases. Western Digital's revenue was $3.747 billion, both confirming high gross margin capabilities. However, funds still used SanDisk's next quarter guidance of $10.55 billion, which missed very high expectations, as a trigger to sell off. Intraday, $SNDK dipped to $116.7, $WDC retraced to $40.8, dragging down other storage stocks like Micron, reflecting a sharp drop in market risk appetite during the peak expectation realization period, triggering concentrated exits of leveraged positions and profit-taking.
The current priority of driving factors is: the pressure of chip liquidation under extremely high expectations outweighs valuation reshaping caused by cautious management guidance, which in turn outweighs the fundamental support from industry-wide average selling price increases.
The bullish scenario requires stabilization of chips at key support levels after the sell-off wave. If funds recognize the optimization of industry supply-demand structure, and within the next three trading days $SNDK holds the $116.7 bottom and recovers the guidance gap, while Micron and $WDC stop falling and rebound, it indicates the negative news has been absorbed and the washout is over, and the valuation recovery rally will restart. The signal that this scenario fails is an intraday rebound with low volume followed by a break below the sell-off low.
The bearish scenario stems from continued contraction in risk appetite causing valuation downgrades. If macro risk appetite fails to stabilize and the sell-off further squeezes derivative positions, causing SanDisk to fail to maintain above $116.7, extremely optimistic funds will turn to continuous withdrawal, triggering a sector-wide correction. The signal that this scenario fails is major funds buying heavily on dips and pushing SanDisk to stabilize and rebound.
Overall, the condition for the bullish expectation to fail is stagnation in enterprise SSD demand growth or a month-over-month decline in average product selling price, meaning the current profit-driving momentum no longer exists.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the strength of fund support at $SNDK $116.7 and $WDC $40.8 support levels, as well as liquidity recovery of the SOXX semiconductor index after position adjustments.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 Nonfarm payrolls for July will be announced tonight at 20:30.
Market expectations: about 80,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate at 4.2%. Last month actual was 57,000, with April-May combined revisions downward by 74,000.
Current background: Federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. 10-year US Treasury yield about 4.67%. Probability of a rate hike in September about 57%. June job openings at 7.359 million, latest initial jobless claims about 199,000.
Three scenarios:
Nonfarm > 100,000-120,000 (unemployment stable, wages slightly strong) → rate hike expectations rise → US Treasury yields and USD rise → high-valuation tech, semiconductors/memory, and crypto under pressure, gold may pull back.
Nonfarm 50,000-90,000 (unemployment 4.2%-4.3%, wages stable) → market's most favored outcome. Rate hike necessity declines → US Treasury yields and USD fall back → growth stocks, crypto, and gold all relatively benefit.
Nonfarm near zero or negative growth (unemployment ≥4.4%) → recession concerns rise. US Treasury yields drop sharply, gold benefits, but US stocks and crypto may rise first then fall.
Observation priority order: nonfarm payrolls → prior value revisions → unemployment rate → wages → 2-year/10-year US Treasury yields. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Damn! The Fed has completely messed up. Employment is as weak as a pile of crap, yet it can't save inflation from staying high.
Everyone thought a cooling labor market would force out the usual dovish script. But in July, private sector job additions were a damn 44,000, less than half of expectations, the worst in half a year. Unemployment claims remain low, people lose jobs but quickly find new ones, and wages stubbornly keep climbing. This isn’t a mild cooldown; companies are hoarding cash and not hiring, but those on the job still get pay raises, pushing all costs onto consumers.
The dual mandate is now a joke. Price stability is in the driver’s seat; employment is sidelined. Officials openly say: if inflation doesn’t keep falling, tightening continues, no negotiation. Structural pressures have shifted from demand to a wage-cost death spiral, and no one at the Fed is playing blind. The market has already figured it out; the odds of a 25 basis point hike in September are over 50%. The old script “weak jobs = automatic easing” is dead.
Analysts on X are blunt: nonfarm payrolls below 60,000 will kill rate hike expectations, sparking a risk asset rally; 70,000-100,000 is the golden range, pushing prices higher; once it exceeds 120,000 with strong wages, the dollar surges, yields explode, and growth stocks get hammered.
Others focus on the ADP plunge combined with a jump in the services price payment index, saying the Fed is stuck between soft jobs and stubborn inflation, trapped. Institutional voices are similar: some think the labor market is still tight but wages aren’t fully out of control, some warn service prices are the real threat, and others start talking about the collapse of hawkish credibility and a return to devaluation trades.
Some investors are even harsher, pointing out that while surface numbers look okay, underlying employment is contracting, input costs are accelerating, and profits are being squeezed hard. There’s no clean dovish exit.
Crypto folks are watching the same mess: Bitcoin is quietly hovering around 64,400 before nonfarm, advising not to hold heavy positions, wait for direction. If data is soft, it might bounce to 65,000 or even 66,000; if hard, it will test 63,000-64,000. The risk asset logic is exactly the same.
The whole drama now hinges on a deadly question: if fewer jobs are hired, can wages and prices be firmly suppressed? Or will costs remain high and hiring difficult, forcing the Fed to keep raising rates regardless of weak jobs? Tonight’s nonfarm and next week’s CPI will reveal the answer.
Until then, the market is just tugging back and forth. Anyone chasing big positions and wild swings is just asking for trouble.Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Federal Reserve speeches.
Woke up this morning and glanced at my account.
BTC is still hovering around $64,000. No rise, no fall, dead calm.
But have you ever thought—the real factor deciding your position direction isn’t those few lines on the candlestick chart.
It’s the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 5, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian said that the Iran-Oman agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is "close to finalization."
The market breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices fell.
But three days have passed.
Insiders revealed: reaching an agreement doesn’t mean the strait will immediately reopen. Iran also said: as long as the U.S. continues hostile actions, the strait will remain closed.
Even harsher— the Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill banning U.S. and Israeli ships from entering the Strait of Hormuz, with fines up to one-fifth of the cargo value for violations.
What’s the point of signing an agreement if it can’t be enforced? It’s as if it wasn’t signed.
Now, let me draw you a transmission chain. This chain is deciding the life or death of your position.
👇
Strait of Hormuz navigation blocked → Oil prices surge → Inflation expectations rise → Federal Reserve rate hikes → Interest-free asset BTC under pressure → Your position shrinks
Let’s break it down one by one.
First link: How important is the Strait of Hormuz?
About one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait. On July 23, the navigation volume dropped to single digits.
Second link: Oil prices have gone crazy.
Today, WTI crude rose 4.06%, closing at $78.27/barrel. Brent crude rose 5.04%.
A 5% increase in one day. Geopolitical risk premium is being re-priced into oil prices.
Third link: Inflation is about to rise.
Energy prices are a core input variable for CPI. Every extra day the strait remains closed adds more upward pressure on oil prices. The market predicts August CPI will rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since January.
Fourth link: The Federal Reserve can’t sit still.
Latest reports: Fed Chair Waller has opened the door to a rate hike in September. Insiders say if inflation data remains high in the coming weeks, Waller will prepare to raise rates at the September meeting.
U.S. Treasury yields have already moved first— the 10-year Treasury yield surged 6 basis points to 4.67%. The market is voting with its feet: "Waller, we don’t trust your tough talk, we trust the data."
Fifth link: BTC under pressure.
This is the most critical link.
Previously, geopolitical conflicts (like Russia-Ukraine) simultaneously pushed up oil prices and the safe-haven demand for gold/BTC.
But this time it’s different.
The weight of "rate hike suppression" outweighs "safe-haven demand."
That’s why gold actually fell when the war escalated.
BTC is the same. Fed rate hikes → interest-free assets sold off → liquidity tightens → your position shrinks.
Today BTC is consolidating above $64,000. But consolidation doesn’t mean safety.
Understand now?
Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Federal Reserve speeches.
If you don’t understand geopolitics, you won’t understand the direction of the candlesticks.
Finally, here are two indicators to watch:
👉 WTI crude price— if oil breaks $80, inflation expectations will be uncontrollable.
👉 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield— if yield breaks 4.7%, the probability of Fed rate hikes rises sharply.
These two indicators can predict BTC’s mid-term direction better than any candlestick.
Stop staring at the 15-minute candlestick.
Look at oil prices. Look at U.S. Treasury yields.
That’s the real "fundamental" of your position.
Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, your BTC moves one step further from $65,000.
$BTC $BZ $CL #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? On August 6, 2026, AMD officially announced the acquisition of Canadian AI inference chip company Taalas. The timing of the announcement is intriguing. Just two days ago, AMD released its Q2 2026 financial report. Data shows that the company's data center business revenue reached $6.718 billion, a year-on-year increase of 107%. Instinct GPUs continue to ramp up, and AI business has once again become the core driver of the company's growth. Against the backdrop of rapid growth in GPU business, why does AMD still choose to acquire an AI chip startup that has only been established for three years? The answer may be simple: GPUs remain important, but the future will not be limited to GPUs. This acquisition not only means AMD is completing the last piece of the AI inference puzzle, but also signals that the entire AI chip industry is entering a new stage of competition—shifting from "who owns more GPUs" to "who can complete more inference tasks at lower cost." This is not only a strategic move by AMD but could also become a major turning point in the evolution of AI infrastructure in the coming years. 1. Why must AMD acquire Taalas now? Over the past three years, the AI chip industry has revolved around almost one keyword: Training. Whether it's OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google, the core of large model competition is training larger models, making GPUs the most scarce resource in the entire AI industry. But as large models gradually become more capable,[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with employment data cooling off like this, why is the Federal Reserve still talking about raising rates? Can weak employment really outweigh inflation?
Pharaoh says directly, the issue now is not "raise rates or cut rates," but the tug-of-war inside the Fed between "weak employment" and "sticky inflation."
First, let's look at how divided the data is.
July's ADP new jobs added were only 44,000, less than half of last month's 95,000, showing that high interest rates are indeed eroding the economy. But at the same time, wage growth for those staying in their jobs remains at 4.4%, while wage growth for job switchers accelerated to 7%, the fastest since August 2025. Companies are hiring less, but to compete for core talent, they still have to pay a premium. This means the structural tightness in the labor market is far from resolved, and the "wage-price" stickiness risk remains.
Now, see how divided the Fed is internally.
At the July FOMC meeting, the vote was 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against, advocating a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction. Even more divided, Fed Governor Cook clearly said, "If inflation fails to come down, we are ready to raise rates," while Waller refused to provide forward guidance, leaving the market guessing.
So, can weak employment really outweigh inflation?
Pharaoh thinks not for now. Core PCE year-over-year is still at 3.3%, far from the 2% target. Employment is indeed cooling, but wage growth remains between 4.4% and 7%, so the inflation "wage-price" transmission chain is not broken. After the ADP data release, the market's probability of a September rate hike only slightly dropped from 58.3% to 54.9%, indicating the market doesn't believe employment data can completely block rate hikes.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
In the short term, weak employment data gives Bitcoin a breather, bouncing from 63,000 back near 65,000. But in the medium term, as long as inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations hang overhead, and Bitcoin's macro pressure won't ease. Pharaoh's still saying: mindless shorting near 65,000 is easy money, taking 500-1000 points is a breeze!
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $ETH $BTC $BICO #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #spacex 911.5 million shares unlocked on Thursday
The largest stock unlock in U.S. history is coming, with nearly $100 billion worth of SpaceX shares being released tomorrow.
On Thursday, about 911.5 million shares held by SpaceX insiders will be unlocked. Based on Wednesday's closing price of $108.27, this represents a market value of approximately $98.7 billion, more than 1.4 times the current float.
And this is just the beginning. SpaceX has designed an unprecedented nine-stage phased unlocking mechanism. Thursday's release accounts for 20% subject to a 180-day lock-up period. By early December this year, the circulating shares will surge from the current 639 million to 5.33 billion, an increase of over seven times.
The market is already pricing this in. $SPCX dropped more than 13% on Wednesday, closing at $108.27, a new low since listing, down about 38% from the June peak. Shorts have already heavily entered, with about 30%-35% of the float shorted, and short sellers holding unrealized gains of approximately $5.3-$7 billion.
What does this mean for ordinary traders?
Two directions are worth watching:
First, if concentrated selling occurs, short-term pressure will continue, especially since early investors have costs far below the issue price and strong motivation to cash out.
Second, the short position is already large; if actual selling is less than expected, it could trigger a short squeeze rebound, becoming a critical moment in the battle between bulls and bears.
#特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 (Content synchronized with X) In-depth Research ②｜Why Might CORE Generate Value?
In the previous article, we discussed a question:
What exactly is CoreDAO building?
If Core's goal is to become the infrastructure between Bitcoin and smart contract finance, then the next more important question is:
What value does the CORE token actually have?
I believe the most worthy topic to study is Dual Staking.
1. Dual Staking Could Change CORE's Role
The logic is not complicated:
BTC + CORE.
BTC participates in staking, and CORE also participates in staking.
After CORE and BTC reach a certain ratio, a higher BTC staking yield tier can be obtained.
This means CORE is no longer just a native token for paying gas fees.
If the scale of BTC staking continues to expand in the future, some BTC holders will be motivated to actively hold and stake CORE to increase their returns.
Thus, CORE may gradually transform from an ordinary on-chain asset into a productive asset within the Bitcoin financial system.
Of course, this is only a potential mechanism, not a realized outcome.
What truly determines value are users, capital, and revenue.
2. What Kind of Economic Flywheel Could CORE Form?
Core's potential economic cycle can be understood as:
BTC enters Core → BTC participates in staking → demand for higher yields arises → Dual Staking creates demand for CORE → CORE is staked and locked → BTCFi applications expand → activities like trading, lending, LST, DEX, payments increase → network generates fees and ecosystem revenue → CORE's value capture is enhanced.
If this chain truly runs smoothly, CORE's positioning could gradually shift from a "Layer1 token" to the "core coordinating asset in the BTCFi economic system."
But the reverse is also true:
Ecosystem revenue declines → CORE demand decreases → staking incentives drop → capital exits → ecosystem activity declines.
Therefore, CORE's ultimate competition is not about who has a better story, but who can form a real network effect.
3. How Should We View the 2.1 Billion CORE?
CORE's maximum supply is about 2.1 billion tokens.
But studying Tokenomics should not only focus on Maximum Supply.
What really matters is observing:
Circulating Supply
Unlock
Emission
Staking
Demand
2.1 billion addresses the long-term supply cap.
However, if supply continues to be released in the future without sufficient real demand growth, the price may still face pressure.
Conversely, if ecosystem demand, staking demand, and long-term lock-up speed continue to increase, the supply-demand relationship may change.
So:
CORE's scarcity is not determined solely by the number "2.1 billion," but jointly by supply and real demand.
4. BTCFi Success Does Not Equal Core's Success
This is a point that must be kept clear when researching CORE.
Currently, the Bitcoin financial track has multiple different routes, including native Bitcoin staking, Bitcoin Layer2, BTC lending, BTC LST, BTC derivatives, BTC payments, and asset management.
Babylon, Stacks, BOB, and other projects are all competing for the Bitcoin financial market.
So:
BTCFi success ≠ Core success.
What Core really needs to prove is:
Can it form a unique product advantage?
Can it continuously attract BTC?
Can it form real users?
Can it generate real revenue?
Ultimately, can ecosystem revenue create sustained demand for CORE?
5. What Am I Most Focused on in 2026?
I will not just watch the CORE price every day.
I will continuously observe six indicators:
① Amount of BTC on Core
② Scale of Dual Staking
③ Quality of BTCFi TVL
④ Users and trading volume
⑤ Fees and ecosystem revenue
⑥ CORE value capture
If these indicators start to improve simultaneously, the market's pricing logic for CORE may change.
Conversely, if there is only narrative without users, revenue, and real economic activity, then even the BTCFi leader might just be a market story.
So I won't tell you:
"CORE will definitely rise."
What I truly care about is:
When can Core turn the BTCFi narrative into real economic activity?
If this chain ultimately forms:
BTC inflow → Dual Staking → BTCFi TVL → user growth → trading volume → ecosystem revenue → CORE demand → value capture
Then CORE truly has the foundation for revaluation.
This is the core reason I study CoreDAO.
Don't just focus on the K-line.
Study the network, users, capital, and cash flow behind the asset.
DYOR.
This article only represents personal research and opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and risky; please make independent judgments.In-depth Research ①｜What Exactly Is CoreDAO Building?
Many people know $CORE starting from its price.
Some remember it once reached $6, while others only recall its current slump.
But if you only focus on the candlestick chart, it's easy to overlook a more important question:
What exactly is CoreDAO building?
After revisiting the Core White Paper and the current BTCFi roadmap, I prefer to understand Core as:
a foundational infrastructure attempting to connect Bitcoin's security, BTC capital, and smart contract finance, rather than just an ordinary EVM Layer1.
1. Satoshi Plus Is Core's Most Central Design
What’s most worth studying about Core is not EVM compatibility, but the Satoshi Plus consensus.
It tries to combine three forces:
Bitcoin miners support Core validators through Delegated Proof of Work by lending Bitcoin’s hash power.
BTC holders participate in Core network security and staking via Bitcoin’s native time-lock mechanism.
CORE holders engage in validator elections, governance, and network security through DPoS.
Simply put:
Bitcoin provides the security foundation, BTC provides the capital, and CORE handles network coordination and incentives.
This is also a key difference between Core and ordinary Layer1s.
2. What Core Really Wants to Do Is More Than Just "Bring BTC into DeFi"
Bitcoin holds one of the largest crypto asset pools globally, but native BTC lacks complex smart contract capabilities.
Past BTCFi solutions often followed this pattern:
BTC → wrapping → cross-chain → DeFi
This model improves BTC capital efficiency but introduces additional risks like custody, bridging, and smart contracts.
Core’s approach is different.
Its Bitcoin Staking uses Bitcoin’s native CLTV time-lock, allowing BTC holders to participate in the Core network without handing BTC directly to third-party custody.
This means Core aims to build:
Bitcoin native assets + smart contract finance.
Not simply creating a new wrapped BTC asset.
3. Why Is This Route Worth Attention?
Because Bitcoin is undergoing an important transformation.
In the past, Bitcoin was mostly understood as "digital gold."
But with BTCFi’s development, a new question arises:
If Bitcoin is one of the largest crypto assets globally, can it not only be used for store of value but also become a key collateral and productive asset in the global on-chain financial system?
This is exactly the problem BTCFi tries to solve.
What’s special about Core is that from the protocol design’s inception, Bitcoin is placed at the core.
Satoshi Plus is not a marketing concept added later to cater to the BTCFi market; it’s part of Core’s underlying architecture.
If in the future Bitcoin evolves from digital gold into a global internet-native financial asset, then Core’s "Bitcoin + smart contracts + DeFi" route indeed has greater development potential.
But we must stay clear-headed here:
A correct technical route does not guarantee project success.
BTCFi growth does not guarantee CORE price increase.
What truly determines Core’s future is whether it can convert its technical advantages into users, capital, applications, and real economic activity.
In this first part, I focus more on what Core "is doing."
In the next article, we will continue to explore more critical questions:
Why does CORE need to exist?
What does Dual Staking really mean?
How should we view the 2.1 billion CORE supply model?
And most importantly:
Can Core form a real BTCFi value capture flywheel?
DYOR.Looking at the $BTC market from a macro perspective, there's really no need to get anxious over minor micro fluctuations. Referring to the end-of-bear trends in 2019 and 2022, after the daily 20/60 moving averages densely intertwine, historical patterns without exception always first launch a tentative rebound of about 7% toward the daily 120 moving average.
Before the structure is established, the trading plan is actually very clear:
1. Trial and right-side signals: Left-side trials only carry small stop losses (1%-2%) for attempts; large capital in spot always waits for the "weekly moving average break and pullback without breaking" plus "weekly MACD bullish divergence" resonance—that is the definitive signal that the downtrend has completely ended.
2. Black swan defense: The market never lacks extreme black swan spikes; do not try to bottom guess or go all-in, rely on strict risk control and cash flow (such as dual-currency finance) to hedge the friction costs during long grinding periods.
3. $ETH position defense: ETH native staking yields (<3%) have no advantage against US Treasury risk-free yields (~4%). Currently, it can only oscillate within the large triangle range of 1500-2330, so spot allocation should not exceed 5%, with the defensive focus still anchored on BTC. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The signals from the Federal Reserve are becoming increasingly conflicted.
When the ADP report came out, the market generally saw it as positive: private sector employment increased by only 44,000, below expectations, indicating employment is finally cooling down. However, the initial jobless claims quickly contradicted this, at 199,000, staying below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks. The job market is not weakening across the board; it’s uneven.
Fed Governor Cook also commented that if inflation does not continue to cool soon, she is prepared to take policy action. CME data currently shows a 56.7% probability of a rate hike in September, more than half. The inflation task is not yet complete, and employment data only shows localized easing, far from enough to make the Fed fully pivot.
This is the current macro reality—employment is cooling locally, but overall not enough to cause a Fed pivot. One data point shows weakness, another shows strength, and the market is tugged back and forth between these signals, which is why BTC can’t find a clear direction.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the real key variable.
If nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken, rate hike expectations will ease, and BTC has a chance to move upward. If nonfarm payrolls strengthen instead, the market will treat ADP as noise, and rate hike expectations will be pushed back up.
Guessing direction now is useless; wait for the data to come out.
My judgment is clear—the short-term market will be driven by macro data, so it’s better to wait for results than to bet on direction.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK Seeing so many people betting on a rebound, I instantly feel this short position is already secure
Storage is indeed rebounding, but at most it's a small-scale rebound, it doesn't change the fact that the downtrend is still ongoing. Isn't it too early to bottom-fish now? There will definitely be another big drop
First, the Q4 earnings expectations do not meet market expectations, lacking confidence for the future
Second, those who profited earlier want to take profits and exit
Now the storage sector competition is fierce, and once the big manufacturers restore capacity, price wars can break out at any time
Company executives are continuously selling shares, so we retail investors don't need to rush to catch the falling knife Entering this week, crypto is in a steady but slow upward rhythm: Bitcoin has been gradually rising from 63,000 on August 2nd to nearly 65,000 today; Ethereum once nearly dropped below 1,800 but has now climbed back above 1,900. The capital flow is cooperating well, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows for three consecutive trading days this week, and Ethereum ETFs also having net inflows on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the current market, this liquidity is very valuable.
Next door continues the roller coaster. The US stock indexes show little fluctuation, but individual stocks are volatile: Google down 4%, SpaceX dropped 13.6% in one day, falling below 110, with 100 still hanging in the balance; SanDisk down 5% after earnings. The Korean stock market just rebounded yesterday but fell back today, KOSPI down 4.6%, Samsung down 6%, SK Hynix down 10%. Popular storage sector stocks have basically returned to April levels; the past three months’ rally was just a pipe dream—but amid this FOMO-driven rise and violent liquidations, countless leveraged principal amounts have been wiped out. In any market, principal is always the most precious.
Macro conditions have slightly improved: oil prices remain below 80, the probability of a September rate hike has dropped to 54%; gold has rebounded from below 4,000 to nearly 4,300, indirectly indicating some control over inflation. But more critical for crypto is a clear bill—tomorrow is August 7th, only one working day left, and rationally this bill probably won’t pass this time. Two remaining windows: after Congress handles the budget in September, or after the midterm elections. No need to rush, this bill will eventually pass, just a matter of time.
Focus on on-chain. The most exciting last night was Robinhood, originating from Uniswap’s direct involvement. Uniswap now has a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1.7 billion, nearly twice that of second-place Pancake—DEX leader leveraging technology and deep understanding of AMM to act as a launchpad, with a strong late-mover advantage. My judgment: as long as Uni wants to do it well, replacing Pons as the top RB chain launchpad is very likely. Pons has indeed fallen hard recently, with market cap once below 20 million.
Pools.trade first day results: top frog once reached 10 million, now down to 8.6 million; second place official MEME at 2.3 million. The platform just opened, continuously watching Uni official and RB official attitudes. Funny thing is Sushiswap quickly teamed up with Bnker to launch Pools.fun copying the idea, but the site currently only has one animation and the few tokens issued have no height. Amid the chaos, my top pick remains Uniswap.
Cashcat deserves a separate mention: after I sold 160 million, it dropped below 40 million at its lowest, but bounced back to 120 million in just three days. This violent shakeout completed chip turnover; if the official team provides further support, breaking previous highs won’t be a big problem.
On BSC side, after Alpha announced dividend support, Mars Coin once surged to 70 million, now down to about 50 million. Yesterday CZ quoted a tweet with the original text "All on Binance"—everyone should carefully ponder this tweet: the first layer quotes "Why run around when the Binance Security Department has it all"; the second layer translates this for foreigners who don’t understand Chinese; the third layer, AOB in the English world is a more widely spread advertising term than Binance. So on-chain discussions are about whether AOB will disrupt Binance.
The key node for BSC next is one: when will CZ personally buy coins, and which ones. My judgment is the likelihood of buying Mars Coin is higher—this token’s operation, chip control, and rhythm are very tight, with a market cap of 53 million not low, but short-term it has a chance to hit 100 million.
Summary: August crypto is steadily rising, but the external environment can cause sudden market downturns at any time—this is not a bad thing. If an absurd drop occurs in the next three months, it will actually be a good opportunity to build positions and accumulate chips. The hotspots are all on-chain; how long BSC and RB can last no one knows, so play along while there’s momentum, and it’s good as long as the market doesn’t completely cool off. Be patient for the market, trust the cycle, protect your principal, and don’t rush.