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$SPCX, after receiving strong whale support at $112, is currently facing a tug-of-war between the unlocking pressure at $120 and the expected computing power from the self-built power plant.
The most direct support on the chart currently comes from the whale's average cost basis at $112, where $27 million in buying capital has been deposited, altering the market's judgment on the recovery strength after the unlocking bearish pressure. However, above $120, there is an accumulation of previous trapped positions and unlocking chips, forming a short-term resistance that hinders price advancement.
The core driving factors dominating the current trend are first the digestion speed of the unlocking chips, and second the reshaping effect of the Terafab computing power plant closed loop on long-term valuation. The market's positioning of this asset has shifted from aerospace manufacturing to computing power energy infrastructure, but this expectation cannot be directly converted into profits in the short term, so capital competition still mainly revolves around chip positions.
To initiate an upward trend, the prerequisite is that the daily closing price holds firmly above $120, and the turnover rate above this level remains above 15% for three consecutive days. This indicates that the unlocking selling pressure has been fully absorbed by bullish capital, and the valuation anchor will shift to the progress of Terafab power plant construction, with the upward target moving to $135.
Conversely, if the price repeatedly surges and falls near $120, and the 24-hour trading volume shrinks operationally below $10 million, it indicates a waning willingness of bulls to take over. Once the price breaks below the whale cost line at $112, it will trigger bull stop-loss and unlocking panic selling, opening the downside space to $98.
With the balance of bullish and bearish forces, the market may oscillate widely between $112 and $120. At this time, it is necessary to observe the overall liquidity changes in the market; without external capital inflows, chip turnover within this range may extend beyond two weeks.
If SpaceX announces a delay in Terafab construction progress, or if the $27 million bullish position at $112 shows signs of active liquidation, the above optimistic upward scenario will immediately become invalid.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are the daily turnover rate at the $120 resistance level and whether there is new large capital inflow at the $112 support level.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？SanDisk and Western Digital delivered their latest earnings reports that exceeded expectations, with revenue, profit, and gross margin all exploding, and they even announced a billion-yuan buyback plan. However, after the financial reports were released, their stock prices actually plummeted, directly dragging down the entire storage sector. This round of declines is not killing earnings, but rather the market's high expectations. Currently, the storage sector is in a very awkward position: expectations have peaked, but fundamentals have not, and the time to buy the bottom with heavy positions has not yet arrived. Funds no longer trade profit growth, but instead play on when the slope of profit margins will rise. The market is pricing in early, and before the data truly deteriorates, the possibility of slowing transaction growth begins. There are three key warning signs that need to be continuously tracked: a slowdown in storage product price increases, a decline in gross margins, and downward corrections in cloud vendor orders. Only if one of these is confirmed to be implemented does it mean the fundamentals have peaked and are confirmed. The article uses Nvidia's historical trends as a reference point for valuable reference. Nvidia's gross margin once soared, and after reaching a peak, its stock price entered a long sideways phase. Even if the results remain strong, it is difficult to replicate the previous multiple-fold surge. Now, the storage sector has experienced a major bull market, with gross margins soaring from 50% to 80% and stock prices doubling. Repeating the past surges is very difficult. Many people think of all-in bottom-fishing when they see a pullback, but it's important to distinguish: a drop in valuation expectations does not mean the bottom has arrived. The real low point in positioning will only appear after gross margins fall, market expectations are completely crushed, and valuations have been fully digested. At this stage, the sector will fall into a stagnant range, repeatedly pulling upLet's talk some solid stuff, those who understand will get it.
$SPCX is up 6% against the trend today. The market movement is not just short-term capital speculation; behind it lies a grand narrative that most people have overlooked.
The latest Texas public meeting released major news: SpaceX, together with Tesla's superchip giant Terafab, does not intend to heavily rely on the Texas public power grid.
They plan to build their own gas power plant, paired with a massive battery storage array, to achieve self-sufficient power generation. Power generation and storage will be completed entirely within the factory's internal closed loop, no longer constrained by external power supply.
Many people only see Terafab as an ordinary chip factory.
The initial investment is $16.8 billion, with a potential total investment up to $119 billion in the long term. The goal is to produce 1 terawatt of computing power chips annually, consolidating chip design, wafer manufacturing, and advanced packaging and testing all within the same campus. Some of the chips produced will supply Optimus humanoid robots and autonomous driving, while 75% will be reserved for SpaceX's space AI satellites and orbital computing centers.
But building their own power plant plus the giant battery array is the most critical piece of the entire vertical integration puzzle.
AI chip factories are power-hungry beasts. Traditional wafer fabs are extremely constrained by regional grid capacity; power shortages and price fluctuations can easily throttle production ramp-up speed. Musk is firmly taking control of energy himself: generating power and storing it independently, completely freeing Terafab from external power constraints and clearing the biggest practical obstacle for full-capacity mass production.
At this point, the logic is completely clear.
SpaceX is no longer just about rockets and satellites. Musk is moving the entire industry chain—from energy to chip manufacturing, AI computing power, to space applications—entirely into his own backyard.
In the past, Musk had to source chips everywhere, depending on Nvidia and foundry capacity. Now, from power supply to chip production, to AI models and space computing deployment, the entire closed-loop chain is connected. The valuation anchor is no longer just the story of rocket launches and Starlink satellites; it now includes the huge imaginative space of independent semiconductor manufacturing.
Most secondary market traders are still focused on financial reports and rocket recovery data.
But this news marks the Terafab project officially moving from PPT planning to infrastructure construction phase.
Don't just focus on the single-day 6% price change; short-term prices will fluctuate, and capital will continuously speculate on expectation gaps.
But this complete "Energy–Chip–AI–Space" chain is the core narrative determining $SPCX's mid-to-long-term valuation. Let's watch how this giant chain grows.The more explosive the earnings report, the more the stock price falls? The AI memory bull market may not be over, but the game has changed
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
The recent decline in storage stocks is indeed somewhat unreasonable.
SanDisk's quarterly revenue reached $8.965 billion, a 51% sequential increase; adjusted earnings per share were $39.25, with data center business doubling sequentially. The company also added a $14 billion buyback authorization. Judging by these results alone, it hardly looks like the bull market is over.
But one detail is worth noting: about two-thirds of SanDisk's new revenue this quarter came from price increases, with only one-third from volume.
When prices rise, profits come very quickly; but once prices can no longer increase, revenue and profit growth will slow down together. The next quarter's gross margin guidance is 83%–85%, while this quarter was 84.6%. The market's concern is not that money can't be made now, but whether the most profitable phase has already passed.
Another point is that not all storage products should be viewed together.
HBM, DRAM, NAND, and mechanical hard drives benefit differently from the AI boom. Training large models requires HBM the most; data center expansion drives enterprise SSDs and NAND, but traditional consumer demand for phones and computers may not recover simultaneously. SanDisk's data center revenue grew 103% sequentially this quarter, while consumer business declined 32%, showing clear divergence.
Demand has not suddenly disappeared. Micron's last quarter revenue reached $41.46 billion, and it expects about $50 billion next quarter. HBM4 has also started mass shipments. Micron earnings report
What really scares investors is another matter: storage manufacturers seeing price increases are expanding production together. If future supply catches up with demand, today's ridiculously high gross margins definitely won't hold. Storage is also known as a cyclical industry, and the market often trades the next round of price cuts early when profits look best.
So my judgment is straightforward: the AI memory industry bull market is not over, but the phase of blindly buying the entire storage sector is almost over.
Going forward, don't just look at revenue growth; watch three things: whether volume truly increases, whether gross margin can be maintained, and whether expansion speed exceeds customer order speed.
If growth continues to rely on real shipments and long-term orders, this decline looks more like a valuation cooldown; if performance is only supported by price increases and inventory starts to pile up again, that is the real cyclical peak.
Good earnings reports but falling stock prices are not contradictory. The market is no longer asking "How much memory does AI need?" but "How long can such exaggerated profits last?"CLARITY Bill's Life-or-Death Situation: Only a 27% Chance of Passing, BTC and ETH's Fate Diverges Here
1. Background of the Bill: A Long Wait of 804 Days
Tonight (August 7), the U.S. Senate will begin its August recess, not reconvening until September 14. According to Senate rules, to vote on the CLARITY Bill (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) before the recess, senators needed to file a motion to end debate by August 5 at the latest. That window has now passed, and the bill failed to clear before the recess.
The predecessor of this bill was the FIT21 Bill, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives back in May 2024—804 days ago. The CLARITY Bill itself passed the House in July 2025 with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, but has since stalled in the Senate. On May 14, 2026, the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee review by 15 to 9 votes, just one step away from a full Senate vote.
2. Will It Pass This Year? The Probability Has Dropped to Only 27% 📉
Prediction Markets Sharply Downgrade Expectations
According to prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Bill passing in 2026 is only 27%, down from 82% in February this year.
Galaxy Research previously assessed the chance of the bill passing in 2026 at 75%, expecting it to be signed during the week of August 3. Bloomberg analysts gave a passing probability below 50%. TD Cowen has issued a warning that the biJuly nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time).
Currently, the mainstream consensus on Wall Street expects: 83,000 new jobs, 4.2% unemployment rate, and a 0.3% month-over-month increase in hourly wages.
Most likely scenario: Considering the ADP employment data significantly missed expectations and the service sector employment sub-index fell into contraction territory, the data is expected to be neutral to slightly weak, with new jobs between 60,000 and 90,000, meeting or slightly below expectations, and the June previous value likely to be revised downward; the probability of employment significantly exceeding expectations is low.
Expected market impact is limited:
For BTC, operate around 64100 with low short positions, first target at 65000.
For ETH, operate around 1885 with low short positions, first target at 1930.
Before the data release, keep light positions and observe without betting on a one-sided move; after the release, follow the breakout direction with strict stop-loss to control risk.
I will monitor the market live tonight in Xuwen, welcome to communicate! $BTC $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ THE MARKET IS FEARFUL, BUT THERE'S ONE THING FEW PEOPLE NOTICE
The fear and greed index today stands at 29, still deep in the fear zone, and throughout the past week, market sentiment has never escaped the 25 to 29 range. At a glance, everyone sees a bleak market, but the real question is: why hasn't the price dropped sharply even though everyone is afraid?
Bitcoin is at $64,358, down slightly by 0.8 percent, stuck below the 65,000 threshold for many days. Ethereum is at $1,904, Solana down 1.8 percent, XRP down 2.3 percent. The total market capitalization is $2.28 trillion, down slightly by half a percent. No shocks, just a prolonged subtle selling pressure.
This is the key point that few notice: the market is fearful but not collapsing, prices are moving sideways within a narrow range, and capital is waiting on the sidelines. This kind of accumulation usually appears before major events, and right now all eyes are on the CLARITY Act vote in the US Senate. If the bill passes, the coin groups with clear legal stories will react first. If delayed, the market may continue to linger.
Two opposing views: pessimists argue that the fear index staying below 30 signals that big money hasn't returned yet, and prices have no reason to break out. Optimists point out that historically, extreme fear zones are where long-term investors accumulate best, and sideways movement amid negative sentiment indicates sellers have exhausted.
In my opinion, the market right now is not for action but for observation. When the fear index is at this level, the biggest mistake is not standing aside, but forcing yourself to enter trades at all costs. Cash is a position.
If the CLARITY Act passes in the next few days, which coin group do you think will break out first, and which side of the market are you on? Recently saw a set of data, and it really hits hard
Many people are still waiting for the altcoin season, but if you look at a longer timeframe, the problem with altcoins might not be that they grow slowly, but that most tokens never had the ability to outperform Bitcoin in the long run from the start
Statistics of tokens that first reached a circulating market cap of $50 million after 2020 show that as of June 2026, only 4.1% have outperformed BTC
In other words, the success rate is about one in twenty-four
If you extend the observation period to more than two years, the answer is even harsher
Among 1305 tokens, only 22 outperformed Bitcoin, accounting for just 1.7%
What does this mean?
If you randomly pick a new coin that looks like it has a story, hype, and institutional backing, in the long term, it’s very likely not just about not making big money, but it will clearly underperform BTC
Even more striking, the median return of tokens in the sample is negative 97%
And 73% of tokens will ultimately retrace more than 90% from their price when entering the sample
In the past, the crypto community liked to say hold on and wait for spring
But now many coins might not even have a second spring $BTC In recent weeks, several investors on Wall Street, known for their caution, have expressed concerns about the U.S. stock market almost simultaneously. Todd Horwitz believes that U.S. stocks have already seen a typical volume-price divergence, and the market is losing genuine buying support; Michael Burry, the prototype of the "Big Short," warned that volatility target funds and quantitative strategies could create dangerous positive feedback in the market; Ray Dalio, on the other hand, focuses on valuations and earnings quality, believing that the market's pricing for future growth is already near historic highs; Peter Schiff has consistently reminded investors to pay attention to the long-term risks of the U.S. fiscal deficit, U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar system. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon has repeatedly mentioned that what truly warrants caution is no longer just banks, but the levers for the continuous expansion of the entire non-bank financial system. Many media outlets have simply summarized these views as: "The four major bears on Wall Street are all bearish on U.S. stocks at the same time." But in fact, they are not focused on the same thing at all. If today's capital market is likened to a high-speed machine, then these investors are actually focusing on different parts. Some are paying attention to the engine. Some are paying attention to the drivetrain. Some are paying attention to the fuel tank. Some also pay attention to the brakes. What investors truly need to consider is not who is the most pessimistic, but why these risks appear simultaneously within the same time window. 1. Todd Horwitz: Volume-price divergence signals the market is starting to "lose weight."The fear index has been stuck at 29 for a full ten days, and BTC is still hovering at $64,428 without crashing or rising — this is the most frustrating situation: no one is panic selling, so no one is truly bottom-fishing. The market feels like it's on pause.
Macro overview: BTC dropped only -0.62% in 24h, funding rate +0.0040% neutral, OI steady at 105,500 BTC. No short squeeze, no stampede, just a slow, dull cut.
But what really deserves attention isn’t the price, but "who is moving." Wintermute just obtained a US broker license, MARA mined more BTC but reported Q2 losses (plummeting mining prices ate the profits), and the CLARITY Act vote has been postponed to September — the institutional players are paving the way holographically, while retail investors tremble in fear at 29.
Fear not crashing = leverage dying by "time," not by "price" explosion. This kind of shakeout weeds out those lacking patience, not those lacking position.
Volume is still shrinking by -42.6%, OKX breadth shows 7 up and 8 down, slightly bearish. Even US stock leveraged tokens $XSOXL +5.45%, $XSNDK +3.03% are moving — money is looking for an exit, just hasn’t flowed back into BTC yet.
Reusable framework: Fear stuck in the "half-dead" range of 25-35, price not breaking previous lows, funding not turning positive, means grinding. My own $BICO longs +7.97%, $ADA longs +0.64% are still green — this market only suits small positions grinding, not heavy flooding.
Don’t mistake "not falling" for "about to rise." Before volume returns and breadth turns green, any "ready to take off" calls are just handing you the bag.
Brothers, what do you do when fear is stuck at 29, neither crashing nor rising? A: Slowly grind with small positions B: Play dead and lie flat C: Go contrarian and be a hero. Comment with the letter, I’ll use you as a contrarian indicator (manual dog head).
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion.
$BTC $BICO $ADA #OKXPlanet #MarketAnalysis #MarketUpdate #BTCMarket #Miners #FearGreedMarket Sentiment and Capital Flows: A Contrarian Opportunity Amid Extreme Fear?😱
📰 The Crypto Fear and Greed Index closed today at 34 (Fear), sharply down from last week's 42 (Neutral). Market sentiment has slipped into panic territory, and combined with on-chain data, this is a classic window for "Be fearful when others are greedy."
📉 Exchange $BTC balances have dropped to about 2.7 million coins, the lowest level in nearly five years! A large amount of BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets or custody addresses. A sharp decline in exchange balances is usually seen as a strong bullish signal — indicating that the liquid supply available for selling is shrinking, and supply tightening is quietly underway.
🌊 On the other hand, stablecoin exchange balances remain around $25 billion, but growth has stalled. The inflow speed of stablecoins is far slower than at the start of the 2024 bull market, indicating that off-exchange funds are still cautious and not rushing to bottom-fish. Buying interest exists but lacks explosive momentum.
👀 The number of active $BTC on-chain addresses has fallen below 900,000, shrinking 25% from the March peak of 1.2 million. Cooling on-chain activity means speculative enthusiasm is waning, and the market needs new narratives (such as post-halving effects or continued ETF inflows) to reignite passion.
📌 Conclusion: Sentiment is near bottom territory, and declining exchange balances build a mid-term bullish case, but without new story drivers, short-term rallies are unlikely.
✅ Bullish: Fear sentiment + new lows in exchange balances, clear mid-term bottom characteristics.
❌ Bearish: Sharp drop in active addresses + stalled stablecoin inflows, short-term lack of buying momentum.
$BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Employment cooling down, is the Fed's September rate cut expectation heating up?
The U.S. job market is sending an increasingly clear signal that the economy is cooling but has not yet stalled.
In July, ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, below market expectations and marking a relatively weak level in recent months. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain around 200,000, showing no significant deterioration $BTC
Companies are starting to reduce hiring but have not begun large-scale layoffs. This is actually the scenario the Fed most wants to see.
Over the past two years, the Fed has been worried that strong employment would push up wages and inflation. Now that the labor market is gradually cooling, it opens space for rate cuts $ETH
The market is currently betting again on a September rate cut. The core logic has shifted from simply looking at employment data to judging whether the cooling job market can suppress inflation.
I think this is more like a soft landing rather than a recession.
Because the U.S. economy still shows resilience, unemployment claims data remain healthy, and companies have not entered a large-scale layoff cycle. At the same time, productivity gains brought by AI may help companies reduce cost pressures $BICO
But risks also exist.
If employment rapidly deteriorates in the future, market trading logic will shift from rate cut optimism to recession concerns.
So the two most important things ahead are:
First, whether nonfarm employment continues to cool down.
Second, whether CPI can continue to approach the 2% target.
Currently, the market is hoping for the best-case scenario:
The economy gradually cools, inflation continues to decline, and the Fed begins to cut rates.
If this logic is realized, the dollar may come under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, and tech stocks and the crypto market could have opportunities for new catalysts.
But if employment suddenly stalls, market sentiment could quickly reverse.
In the coming weeks, nonfarm payrolls and CPI will determine the Fed's path in September.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Whales are quietly laying out LIT—but there is a clear gap between token fundamentals and on-chain signals. According to Lookonchain monitoring, whale addresses 0x7378 spent about $9.1 million over the past two months to buy 3.91 million LIT, with an average position opening price of $2.33. This address also opened positions in WBTC and ETH during the same period, indicating a certain intention to allocate assets. Fundamental Signals: LIT Is Undergoing Structural Changes LIT is the native token of the decentralized perpetual contract trading platform Lighter. There have been several notable changes in LIT's fundamentals recently: the platform has repurchased about 6.3% of its circulating supply through trading fee income and permanently burned it, targeting a staking annualized yield of 6%; It also partnered with Robinhood Wallet, which uses Lighter's contract trading engine on its chain. Regarding LIT token unlocks, 26% of the team's supply and 24% held by investors are scheduled to unlock on December 29, 2026, after which approximately 456,000 LIT will be released daily. If platform revenue does not grow in sync by then, ongoing selling pressure will test the token's price. Technical Levels to Watch Although whales are continuously accumulating, LIT's current price has reached a level that requires technical attention. Some analysts point out that LIT is currently facing dual resistance at the EMA50 (around $0.77) and EMA200 (around $0.79), with the 4-hour MACD showing a death cross.Tonight at 20:30, the US July nonfarm payroll report will be released! This is the most important macroeconomic data of the month and may directly determine the Fed's next move.
Wall Street's forecast differs by 65,000; this is not just a disagreement, it's a "fight." Once the nonfarm payrolls are out tonight, the winner and loser will be clear—those who bet on the wrong direction will pay a heavy price.
At 20:30 tonight, the July nonfarm data will be announced. Institutional forecasts range from 18,000 to 83,000, an absurdly wide divergence—Goldman Sachs warns that "July nonfarm payrolls are likely to be below expectations with a significant downward revision to prior data," with June already revised down by 74,000.
The unemployment rate is what the Fed truly watches—currently 4.2% is propped up by people "giving up looking for work," and if the participation rate rebounds, the unemployment rate could break 4.3% at any time.
Three outcomes, three fates:
New jobs 50,000-80,000, unemployment rate slightly rises to 4.3%: Weak but not bad, this is what the market most wants to see. Rate hike expectations cool down, BTC could surge to 65,000.
New jobs 100,000+, unemployment rate unchanged: Employment is too strong, the Fed can confidently raise rates. Bank of America says "at most three hikes this year," BTC might be pushed back to 63,000.
New jobs below 30,000, or even negative growth: Recession fears come first, but rate cut expectations will also accelerate, leading to a drop then rise, with the greatest volatility.
After Wash abandoned forward guidance, data decides everything. Don't bet on direction before the data is released; wait for the results before making a move. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Tether Freeze Execution Delay Exposes Risk Control Time Gap
FlashRescue co-founder stated that Tether takes an average of over 2 hours from freeze proposal to actual execution. Some high-risk addresses exploit this time window to transfer involved funds, resulting in a reduced final frozen amount. The market interprets this as negative for stablecoin risk control trust, directly related to USDT. Tether's freezing capability has always been a compliance advantage for centralized stablecoins, but the execution process has a time gap, indicating that on-chain asset recovery is not "freeze upon discovery." For traders and institutions, the focus is not on USDT peg risk, but on the risk control expectations for payment, OTC, custody, and illicit fund interception scenarios being repriced. If more cases emerge, stablecoin issuers' freeze SLA and collaboration processes will become key concerns for regulators and institutional clients.
Source: PANews
#Crypto100W #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The latest meeting minutes released a clear hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 61.5%. Even though June's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, far below expectations, and employment data for the past two months were simultaneously revised down by 74,000, showing visible weakening in employment, stubborn wage growth remains stable at 3.5%, and core PCE stays high at 3.4%. Coupled with geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East causing oil prices to rebound, inflation risks are far more concerning to the Federal Reserve than short-term employment weakness. At this stage, inflation weighs more heavily than employment data, and the Fed will not easily shift to easing just because of a slight cooling in employment. Expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress volatility in the crypto market. I usually spend most of my time deeply engaged with content on the platform, relying on modest platform incentives to persistently share genuine insights about the crypto world. In terms of trading, I remain cautious and observant, not prematurely betting on rate cuts or hikes, patiently waiting for the market to gradually warm up.
$SNDK
This represents my personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Miners and On-Chain Costs: Is the Capitulation Over? ⚒️
⛏️ The movements of the miner community are a litmus test for the market bottom. Currently, Bitcoin's total network hashrate remains near the historical high of about 650 EH/s, with no large-scale "mining disaster-style capitulation" like in 2022. Although the hashrate is stable, miner revenue has sharply dropped due to the weak coin price, and some high-cost mining farms are approaching shutdown prices (around $53,000-$56,000).
💰 Miner holding indicators show that in the past week, miners' net selling volume was only about 80% of daily production, with the remaining 20% being hoarded. This contrasts sharply with the 2025 bull market peak when miners were liquidating their holdings. The miner community is shifting from "forced selling" to "selective hoarding," which is a positive signal of reduced supply-side pressure.
📊 The Realized Price is currently about $32,000, while the MVRV ratio (market value/realized value) is about 2.0. Historical patterns indicate that when MVRV falls below 1.5, it enters an absolute undervaluation zone. The current 2.0 is neutral to slightly low, with room below but not to the point of collapse.
🔗 On-chain profit and loss ratio: About 72% of short-term holders (STH) are currently at a loss, with an average $BTC cost basis around $67,000. This means that if the price rebounds to $66,000-$67,000, there will be huge selling pressure from unlocking losses. This is why the $66,500-$67,200 range is defined as the "bear stronghold."
📌 Conclusion: The miner capitulation wave has basically ended, but the on-chain trapped positions are heavy. The market needs time or very strong positive news to digest the "dead pile" above $67,000.
✅ Bullish: Miners reluctant to sell + strong hashrate, network fundamentals are healthy.
❌ Bearish: Large number of short-term holders trapped, $67,000 will be the "gateway of hell" for bulls' rebound. $BTC #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ Upbit Delists BONK: South Korea's Liquidity Gateway Is Closing
On August 7, Upbit announced it will terminate BONK/KRW and BONK/USDT trading support at 14:00 on September 7, with withdrawal services retained until October 7. BONK was previously placed under trading warning due to security incidents and disclosure issues. After about a month of review, Upbit ultimately decided to delist it.
My judgment is that this is not a routine cleanup of low-volume trading pairs. The KRW market has always been an important liquidity gateway for altcoins. After BONK loses Upbit support, the capacity for South Korean funds to absorb it will significantly decline; however, this decision by a single exchange does not mean the Solana network, BONK contract, or global trading channels will cease to operate, so it cannot be directly equated with the project being worthless.
Going forward, watch whether Bithumb and Coinone will delist simultaneously; whether BONK's KRW price will show sustained discounting; whether the project team can publicly disclose the security incident investigation and remediation plan; and whether Upbit's trading volume and withdrawal scale abnormally increase before September 7. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ In the past two days, there have been rumors online that Duan Yongping "reduced holdings" of Pop Mart, which he previously claimed he would "not sell for ten years."
Today I checked and found that Duan himself explained it. Let me summarize:
1. Duan Yongping likes to sell options, usually focusing on selling puts. (Refer to my previous article on cash secured puts)
2. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange limits the total amount of puts sold, so some positions use a covered call strategy, which means buying the underlying stock and selling calls. He generally sells ATM calls directly, which have rich premiums.
Covered call and cash secured call are mathematically basically equivalent, which can be derived through option equivalence formulas.
3. Put expired means the sold put did not fall below the strike price and expired worthless. Covered call being called means the price rose above the call strike price, and the underlying stock was called away (sold passively).
Both of these generate premium income from selling options rather than bearish selling.
4. Duan Yongping still loves his iPad 🫢 The $CORE community is flooded with a hot article titled "CORE is the severely underestimated 'biological son' of Bitcoin," a well-packaged BTCFi narrative attracting many retail investors to stop and take notice.
Many newcomers are immediately tempted after reading it, firmly believing that now is the golden bottom-buying opportunity.
Unpacking this marketing blind box, beneath the glossy promotional shell lie layers of carefully designed logical traps.
First layer of packaging: Relying on Bitcoin's hash power, it has Bitcoin-level network security.
The truth is a typical word game.
Miner hash power delegation purely chases CORE token rewards, which is just a short-term business with no permanent binding. When profits decline, hash power can collectively withdraw at any time.
Bitcoin's hash power does not provide security protection for CORE; the two public chains are independent.
The so-called hash power moat is just a label for external hype. Many promotions deliberately confuse concepts, misleading investors to think that by leveraging BTC hash power, they have the same level of security.
Second layer of packaging: CORE is Bitcoin's "biological son," enjoying native bloodline dividends.
This is the easiest cognitive misdirection to trap newcomers.
Bitcoin Core (the official Bitcoin client) and CoreDAO $CORE have no connection whatsoever, nor any intersection with Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin's early development team.
The project is just an independent public chain, borrowing Bitcoin miner resources to tell a story, forcibly riding on Bitcoin's lineage to create associations.
The native Bitcoin community has long been skeptical of such hash power-riding narratives; the "biological son" is a marketing persona fabricated from start to finish.
Third layer of packaging: Fully compatible with EVM, Ethereum DeFi projects can easily migrate, and the ecosystem will soon explode.
EVM compatibility has long been a basic threshold for public chains and is not an exclusive advantage.
Whether developers migrate depends mainly on on-chain liquidity and real user base, notThe same popular list, changed to one hour and twenty-four hours later, what different conclusions are there?
The most common misunderstanding with the one-hour popular list is to directly treat the total volume as a trend. OKX Onchain OS's official snapshot at 11:00 on August 7 (China time) shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 36, 22, and 11 times respectively in the last hour; the twenty-four-hour totals were 1325, 731, and 482 times.
To compare the two windows, you can first divide the twenty-four-hour total by twenty-four, then compare it with the latest one hour. The results are BTC 0.65 times, ETH 0.72 times, SOL 0.55 times. A value above one means the latest hour is more active than the daily average, below one means relatively quiet; this only discusses speed, not returns.
By this measure, BTC is clearly slowing down, ETH is clearly slowing down, SOL is clearly slowing down. The asset with the highest original mention volume is not necessarily the one heating up fastest relative to its own baseline. Separating "most volume" and "fastest acceleration" can reduce many misjudgments.
Tone also needs another layer of consideration. BTC is slightly bullish dominant, with bullish and bearish proportions at 42% and 25% respectively; ETH is clearly bullish dominant, with ratios of 41% and 18%; SOL is slightly bullish dominant, with ratios of 45% and 27%.
The key here is the denominator. ETH has only 22 mentions in one hour, SOL 11 mentions, so a few new texts can significantly change the percentages; although BTC has a larger sample, it may also include retweets and quotes of the same event. When ranking by percentage, do not forget how many texts are behind each group.
The twenty-four-hour average is also not a perfect baseline. It mixes different market sessions and smooths out spikes before and after announcements. A higher latest hour may be a new event or just an active period; a lower one may be natural cooling. Without continuous snapshots, a single speed can only describe the current position.
You can also do a simple reverse check: if an asset's mention speed exceeds double but the bearish proportion also rises simultaneously, this should not be written as "heat turning bullish"; if the bullish proportion is very high but speed is only half the long-window average, it is also inappropriate to say new consensus is expanding. Putting these two counterexamples into the judgment framework first can avoid chasing conclusions based on a single attractive number.
When I read this kind of list, I divide it into three layers: find turning points in one hour, see if it can continue in four hours, and confirm if it becomes the main theme of the whole day in twenty-four hours. Finally, put spot trading volume, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain activity back to see if there is real market participation behind the attention.
If the speed ranking of the three assets completely changes in the next round, this ranking is just a time slice; if the same asset leads continuously and the sentiment gap remains stable after sample size increases, then it is worth raising the tracking priority. Although this conditional judgment does not have an eye-catching "must rise" sentence, it is more convenient to verify right or wrong later.
Therefore, this set of dual-window data is suitable to answer "where is heating up," but not suitable to answer "where to go next" alone. Currently, the speed and tone of the three assets are not completely consistent; preserving this difference is closer to the data itself than compressing all numbers into a single bullish or bearish view. Tonight at 8:30, the US nonfarm payrolls are coming.
Last month only added 57,000 jobs, and the previous two months were revised down by 74,000. Honestly, US employment is no longer about "whether it will cool down," but about how fast it will decline.
Tonight, I’m watching three scenarios:
Too strong (100,000+): Stocks and bonds both sell off, high-valuation sectors like tech are the first to suffer, gold will also be pushed down — this happened once in June.
Just right (50,000-90,000): The market’s preferred script, the economy doesn’t collapse but the Fed’s pressure eases a bit, stocks, gold, and crypto all feel comfortable.
Too weak (close to 0 or even negative): Don’t pop the champagne yet, this signals recession anxiety, not a rate cut dividend. Gold will be bought heavily, but stocks and crypto usually rise first then fall, because rate cuts can’t solve corporate profit issues.
More than the number itself, I care more about whether the previous two months will be revised down again. The last revision down of 74,000 actually had more impact than the number itself.
No matter which way it goes tonight, don’t just look at the headline number in the news. Check how the 10-year US Treasury reacts — that’s what truly determines the next moves for stocks, gold, and crypto.
Which scenario are you betting on?
#NonfarmPayrolls #FOMC #USStockMarket #Gold #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #NFP #MacroTrading #Liquidity Macro Chessboard: Gold Surges 4%, Why Is $BTC Playing Dead? 🌍
🥇 On August 5, spot gold skyrocketed, surging 4.48% intraday to break through $4200, and on August 6 it hit a seven-week high at $4300! Global capital is flooding into gold, betting on weak US employment → easing rate hike expectations → a frenzy for interest-free assets. However, Bitcoin has been watching coldly the whole time, circling around 64000. Why?
🚧 Three major structural breakpoints block $BTC's macro transmission:
Breakpoint 1 (US-Asia split): Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, with US institutions selling vs Asian retail buying, forming a perfect long-short hedge, completely offsetting macro bullishness with internal selling pressure.
Breakpoint 2 (Real interest rate drain): US real yields (TIPS) have soared to the highest level since 2008, making the opportunity cost of holding BTC frighteningly high. Institutions would rather buy 4.5% yielding Treasuries than bet on volatile risk assets.
Breakpoint 3 (Fed infighting): Governor Cook turns hawkish (rate hikes if inflation doesn’t drop), while ADP data at only 44,000 (far below the expected 75,000) pressures for rate cuts. CME shows a 55% chance of a September hike, with the dollar index and US bond yields pulling in opposite directions, leaving risk assets confused.
📉 Stablecoin indicators are shrinking across the board: USDT and USDC have collectively lost nearly $15 billion in liquidity, and the crypto market’s internal “ammunition” is drying up. Without incremental funds, what can Bitcoin use to break out?
📌 Conclusion: Before US Treasury yields substantially turn downward, Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent bull market. Without macro tailwinds, BTC can only maintain a choppy bottoming phase.
✅ Bullish: If the Fed signals a clear rate cut, BTC will take off instantly, as gold has already shown.
❌ Bearish: Current macro liquidity continues to tighten, and BTC’s safe-haven correlation with gold has broken. $BTC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 The AI memory bull case is becoming less about scarcity alone and more about who can convert scarcity into durable earnings. WDC and Sandisk falling despite beats, alongside pressure in Korean memory names, suggests expectations may already demand cleaner guidance and stronger margins.
Meanwhile, reported memory trims in some Nvidia Rubin Ultra models expose the other side of tight HBM supply: pricing power can rise while shipment capacity and downstream valuations face constraints. My read is that supply tightness remains supportive, but the market is shifting from rewarding the theme to testing execution. Not advice, just analysis.
#AIMemoryBullTest #OKXOrbitFinally understood! US stocks = the barometer, crypto = the amplifier 🔥 Core logic of SanDisk storage trading
Now, whether veterans or newcomers in the circle, everyone is flocking to US stocks storage and SanDisk sectors 📈
The reason is simple: huge volatility, explosive game space
Daily swings of 20% up or down are normal, much more fun than big coin altcoins, with maxed out fault tolerance + odds!
I have long held positions in both US AI tech stocks and crypto, and have summarized a top-tier linked trading mindset, minimalist but super practical ✅
1. US stocks set the direction, crypto amplifies the sentiment
US stocks are the market barometer, crypto is the sentiment amplifier!
- Microsoft, Google, Nvidia earnings keep pouring capital into AI computing power 👉 the industry trend is not over
Directly add positions in crypto AI and storage concepts to capture ultra-high sentiment premiums not found in US stocks 🚀
2. If earnings miss expectations, immediately retreat to safety
Once US stocks show all good news priced in and earnings guidance disappoints
Crypto will definitely double down on the drop, indiscriminately stabbing down ❗
If the market is wrong, immediately clear high-risk altcoins and retreat to BTC + stablecoins to survive 🛡️
3. Before major earnings reports, reduce leverage
Giant earnings reports = biggest black swan source
Any after-hours volatility in US stocks triggers chain liquidations in crypto
Reduce positions and leverage early, don’t bet on news or luck 💯
Key explanation: SanDisk’s explosive earnings + $10 billion buyback, why still falling? 📉
1. Good news priced in early
The market has already risen in advance, earnings release is just funds cashing out and running.
2. Market worries about cycle peak
Current high profits rely on price hikes, long-term expansion and overcapacity risks are huge.
3. High growth unsustainable
Doubling growth is hard to maintain, funds directly kill valuations in phases!
Short-term storage sector is undergoing sentiment clearing + valuation reversion, with high game risk ⚠️
But the long-term logic of AI’s massive data and cold storage demand remains intact!
Be patient to bottom out, once panic selling pressure is over, it will be the starting point of a new big rally 🔥
$SNDK $BTC Tonight's market focus is entirely on the July nonfarm payrolls!
First, let's look at some established signals: the trend of new job additions has been continuously declining over the past four years. Post-pandemic, a single month below 100,000 is already considered weak, and the seasonal performance in July and August over the past three years has been poor.
The second quarter is even weaker—June nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000, and April and May combined were revised down by 74,000, meaning actual employment is worse than it appears. Wednesday's ADP was only 44,000, hitting a new low for the year, with a clear decline in the production sector. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, mainly due to supply contraction rather than demand-driven. After the short-term pulse fades, July nonfarm payrolls are very likely to look bad.
The key question is "how bad":
Slightly below expectations, wages not rebounding, unemployment rate not sharply rising—this is the market's favorite scenario: a mild cooldown, rising expectations for rate cuts, and no need to price in a recession.
Significantly below expectations, the market will price in a recession first, not rate cuts. The August 2024 "8.5 flash crash" serves as a cautionary tale, and currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is sensitive, so the dollar, yen, US Treasuries, and carry trades may resonate and amplify volatility.
In summary: a mild deterioration in nonfarm payrolls is positive, too strong would reinforce rate hike expectations, and too weak would ignite recession fears. The market doesn't want it to be worse and worse, but just right—continuing to cool down, but not letting the economy go up in smoke! $BTC $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ 8.7 Intra-day Deep Review｜Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls (announced at 20:30) Countdown to Volatility
Eve of Nonfarm: The spring is compressed, sideways consolidation for 36 hours, waiting for a data trigger
BTC 30-day implied volatility at 36% (lowest since late May), sideways washout, upper and lower wicks clearing floating positions, a typical "low volatility → high volatility" critical point.
Price stuck in a small box between 63,200–64,379, 64,000 is the intra-day long-short pivot, 62,000 is the swing life-or-death support, 65,500+ is the first resistance zone.
Altcoins show extreme divergence, contract longs and shorts both liquidated, chasing pumps and dumps easily hit by wicks.
Macro leading indicators conflict (root of nonfarm divergence)
ADP small nonfarm: +44,000 (expected 70,000+, lowest this year) → signal of cooling employment
Initial jobless claims: 199,000 (expected 202,000, lowest since 1969) → signal of employment resilience
Market pricing: Nonfarm consensus +80,000 / unemployment rate 4.2%, but institutional expectations vary greatly; tonight is not about "guessing the number" but "guessing the expectation gap."
Three nonfarm scenarios (announced at 20:30)
Strong data (nonfarm >85,000, unemployment rate <4.1%)
Bearish pressure, watch if 63,200 can hold
Meets expectations (nonfarm ≈80,000, unemployment rate ≈4.2%)
→ Range-bound, 62,000-66,000
Weak data (nonfarm <75,000, unemployment rate >4.3%)
→ Bullish momentum, watch if 64,379 can break through
Note hidden variable: if hourly wages rise month-over-month, even with weak nonfarm, the market may interpret it as "inflation stickiness," leading to a rise then fall.
Observation approach
Before data release: watch more, trade less, let the bullets fly a bit
After data release: wait for the first wave of wicks to finish (about 5-10 minutes), then observe if key price levels break or hold effectively
Regardless of long or short, manage risk well, do not hold losing positions
If trend is wrong, exit immediately; if trend is right, hold firmly; strictly no holding losing positions; leverage cost-performance is very poor during low volatility periods.
Core transmission chain of nonfarm
Nonfarm data → Fed September rate pricing adjustment → USD/US Treasury yield movement → Crypto liquidity + liquidation resonance → BTC wick volatility
The essence tonight is not "whether the data is good or bad," but that the data forces institutional divergence out at once; the longer the sideways, the harsher the wicks.
The above is a technical analysis scenario, not investment advice; for contracts, strictly control position size and stop loss. $BTC $ETH The core conclusion of today's global markets is: **Risk appetite has shifted from previously strong to cautiously diverged. **Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower, the Dow pulled back more noticeably, and internal tech stocks remained divided. Oil prices rose again due to uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz agreement, with the dollar strengthening in sync with US Treasury yields. Tonight's US nonfarm payroll report will be the most important variable in the direction choice, potentially directly changing market expectations for the Fed's September policy. 1. What happened overnight? 1. U.S. stocks pause to rise, funds await non-farm payroll confirmation Facts: At the close of U.S. stocks on August 6, the Dow Jones fell 464.02 points, a drop of 0.85%, to 53,885.10; The S&P 500 fell 0.18% to 7,710.03 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.06% to 26,348.35 points. The number of falling stocks on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq outnumbered the gaining, with overall trading volume slightly below the average level of the past 20 trading days. Market reaction: The index did not show obvious panic, but after previous consecutive gains, the willingness to chase higher prices clearly declined. Industrials, materials, and real estate sectors weakened, while energy rose following oil price rebounds. Underlying logic: Two factors driving the market up in recent days—falling oil prices and corporate earnings beating expectations—have both shown marginal changes. Oil prices rebounded again, some tech companies plunged after earnings reports, and with nonfarm payroll data about to be released, funds are more inclined to reduce risk exposure first and wait for new macro signals. 2. Tech stocks show divergent earnings, but the market continuesThe "$BTC ETF fund 'scam'": Money is coming in, so why does the price remain completely stagnant?💸
🇺🇸 The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of as much as $754 million this week, marking the best single-week performance since April! BlackRock's IBIT alone took 60% of the share, sucking in $243 million in a single day on August 6. The data looks incredibly impressive, but the price is like a stagnant pool—what's the catch here?
🎭 Nexo analyst Liya Kalchev reveals the truth: The current inflows are very likely arbitrage funds rather than long-term believers! Institutions are playing the "spot buy + futures short" basis arbitrage game, where the buy orders are immediately offset by hedging orders, causing the price to fail to rise. Renowned market maker Wintermute urgently stated: If the price still doesn't rise after buy orders are absorbed, it means marginal buyers are not genuinely bullish, which is a dangerous warning!
📉 Another bombshell piece of evidence: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium territory for 80 consecutive days, setting the longest historical streak of negative premiums! This means US institutions are frantically selling on Coinbase, while Asian buyers (South Korea, Japan) are picking up at low levels. One side is dumping, the other is supporting, so the price naturally remains flat.
🌍 Macro bleeding effect: The US Treasury real yields are at their highest level since 2008, with funds rushing into the bond market. USDT supply has shrunk from 190 billion in April to 183 billion, and USDC from 79.5 billion to 72 billion—stablecoins are contracting, and incremental funds are reluctant to enter the market.
📌 Conclusion: ETF inflows ≠ price increase. As long as arbitrage funds don't retreat, $BTC will find it hard to break through 65,000 in a day. A real breakout requires seeing Coinbase premium turn positive and volume expand; otherwise, all rebounds are illusions.
✅ Positive: ETF net inflows at least indicate that big money is not bearish and there is support at the bottom.
❌ Negative: The inflows are arbitrage in nature, dominated by US institutional selling pressure, making short-term digestion difficult. $BTC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Cooling employment, is the Fed's September rate cut expectation heating up?
The U.S. job market is sending an increasingly clear signal that the economy is cooling but has not yet stalled.
In July, ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, below market expectations, marking a relatively weak level in recent months. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain around 200,000, showing no significant deterioration.
Companies are starting to reduce hiring but have not yet begun large-scale layoffs. This is actually the scenario the Fed most wants to see.
Over the past two years, the Fed has been worried that too strong employment would push up wages and inflation. Now, as the labor market gradually cools, it opens space for rate cuts.
The market is currently re-betting on a September rate cut. The core logic has shifted from simply looking at employment data to judging whether cooling employment can suppress inflation.
I think it looks more like a soft landing rather than a recession.
Because the U.S. economy still shows resilience, unemployment claims data remain healthy, and companies have not entered a large-scale layoff cycle. At the same time, productivity improvements brought by AI may also help companies reduce cost pressures.
But risks remain.
If employment rapidly deteriorates in the future, market trading logic will shift from rate cut optimism to recession concerns.
So the two most important things ahead are:
First, whether nonfarm employment continues to cool.
Second, whether CPI can continue to approach the 2% target.
Currently, the market is hoping for the best-case scenario:
The economy gradually cools, inflation continues to decline, and the Fed begins to cut rates.
If this logic is realized, the dollar may come under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, and tech stocks and crypto markets could have opportunities for new catalysts.
But if employment suddenly stalls, market sentiment could quickly reverse.
In the coming weeks, nonfarm payrolls and CPI will determine the Fed's path in September.
Not investment advice DYOR Breaking: Russia beats the US to it. 🇷🇺
Putin has officially signed Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory law.
Key points:
• Ordinary investors can buy cryptocurrency through licensed institutions (up to about $3,700 per year)
• Qualified investors have no limit
• Exchanges must be licensed, meet capital requirements, and be regulated
• Cryptocurrency payments are still banned domestically in Russia but allowed for cross-border settlements
• Main provisions will take effect on September 1, 2026.
My view:
This is not Russia embracing Crypto, but rather starting to recognize Crypto as an asset, not a currency.
What’s really worth noting is the last point—allowing cross-border settlements.
Against the backdrop of US dollar settlements increasingly affected by geopolitical factors, cryptocurrency is gradually becoming another settlement tool for international trade, not just a retail speculation target.
Even more interestingly, Russia has completed legislation while the US CLARITY Act is still stuck in the Senate.
If more countries establish compliance frameworks, the valuation logic of Crypto will slowly shift from "speculative asset" to "global financial infrastructure."
My judgment: This is a long-term positive. The short-term impact is limited, but in the coming years, the real beneficiary may not be altcoins, but $BTC. #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 🤗 Extra: The CLARITY bill was again not scheduled for a vote on August 7, postponed to the September 14 session.
Online rumors say last delay caused $BTC to crash from 97000 to 64000, are you guys scared haha.
Actually, the real data is like this: On January 14, 2026, $BTC price was 97039, on January 15, the delay markup day, it fell back below 96k, on January 21, tariff rhetoric pushed it down to 87901, then it ground down for half a year, June low was 61881, on July 21, due to CLARITY progress, it bounced back above 64000, today August 7 delayed again, current price 64300.
It’s not a single delay crash, but multiple delays + zero interest rate cut 85% + August weak season collusion.
Do you guys think my $BTC at over 40k has a chance now? 😊
But the CLARITY delay itself won’t push it down, at most it will poke down to just over 50k. To really see 40k requires zero interest rate cut lockdown + tariff escalation + black swan events all hitting together. Too tough 😂
Every time CLARITY is delayed, $BTC falls, but it’s always a grinding bottom correction, not a crash.
Let’s see how low it can go this time, stay tuned 😊#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
The SpaceX unlocking event followed a completely unexpected script.
On August 6th, 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, with potential selling pressure exceeding $100 billion. Normally, with such a large proportion of shares flooding the market, the price should face downward pressure. But what happened? SpaceX rose about 6%.
What does this indicate? It shows that the market had already driven SpaceX down from 225 to 108 two months in advance, and those who wanted to exit had already done so. When the unlocking day arrived, there was actually little left to sell off, and some funds were even willing to buy at this level.
This event provides an important observation window for the crypto community.
If a trillion-level unlocking like SpaceX’s can be smoothly absorbed by the market, it means the current market liquidity is better than many expect. This is a relatively positive reference for crypto projects facing unlocking pressure— as long as the project’s fundamentals are sound, unlocking doesn’t necessarily lead to a crash; sometimes it can even trigger a market reversal.
SpaceX’s rise wasn’t because its fundamentals suddenly improved, but because the largest overhang on the market was removed. Once uncertainty is eliminated, the market begins to reprice.
This logic also applies to crypto. Projects suppressed by unlocking expectations for a long time, if their fundamentals are solid, the day the unlocking is realized might actually mark the end of the downside.
That’s why I always say, don’t panic before unlocking; wait for the unlocking to happen and then assess the direction. SpaceX has already provided a reference answer—if a trillion-level unlocking can lead to a rise, you can draw your own conclusions.
$ETH $BICO $SNDK Don't be fooled, this is not a bull market signal
BTC active addresses have reached 980,000, the highest since December 2024. Retail investors see this data and get excited, thinking new money is coming in
But the reality is—Coldcard has collapsed, and everyone is moving out
The hardware wallet, recognized in the community as "the safest," has a random number generation vulnerability. Attackers can calculate private keys if they know the device ID and clock value
Since July 30, over 7,300 addresses have been scanned, 1,596 BTC lost, worth over $100 million. At least 15 attackers are operating simultaneously
The chain is completely blown up, about 890,000 BTC transferred within a week, even wallets dormant for 12.7 years were awakened, with 500 BTC moved overnight
In short, the 980,000 active addresses are driven by panic, not liquidity
Retail investors think a bull market is coming, but it's actually a large-scale money migration 😶#Storage stocks plunge after earnings, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
🔥Storage stocks collectively fell after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market coming to an end?
Just saw this topic, honestly it struck a chord. Recently, the storage chip sector has indeed fallen quite badly. SK Hynix has halved from its peak, SanDisk also plunged after its earnings report, dragging the entire semiconductor sector down.
But are their earnings bad? Absolutely not.
SK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit rose 557% year-over-year, Micron’s gross margin hit 84.9%, a record high. HBM capacity is sold out through 2026, and UBS predicts HBM demand will grow 90% year-over-year this year. In the past, this would be a huge positive, and the stock price should have soared.
So why the drop? Simply put: market expectations are running ahead of earnings.
🔴 Good earnings ≠ stock price rise, this is the biggest trap for tech stocks this year
SanDisk’s earnings are actually not bad; revenue and profit are growing, data center business maintains high growth, and over half of the supply for fiscal 2027 is locked in by long-term agreements. But what does the market complain about? The next quarter’s guidance is slightly below the "already very high expectations," and consumer business revenue dropped 32% year-over-year.
In plain terms: it’s not that storage demand disappeared, but everyone previously fantasized about "always exceeding expectations," and now that growth might slow, they start to sell off early.
SK Hynix is even more typical. Q2 operating profit exceeded the total for all of 2025, yet the stock price dropped nearly 20% after earnings. Why? Because the market’s valuation was based on "forever doubling growth," and once signals of slowing price increases appear, capital runs faster than a rabbit.
🟡 The fundamentals of AI memory haven’t collapsed
Although stock prices are falling, the supply-demand pattern for AI memory has not reversed.
What’s the status of HBM now? SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron’s combined capacity is basically sold out through 2026. Nvidia’s Rubin GPU is in early production, and HBM4 shipments start in Q4 this year. UBS forecasts HBM demand of 33.1 billion Gb in 2026, up 90% year-over-year, and another 77% increase in 2027.
More importantly, the profit distribution in the storage industry has undergone structural changes. The three major manufacturers have shifted over 80% of advanced process capacity to HBM and high-end DDR5, severely squeezing traditional consumer-grade DRAM and NAND. What does this mean? The AI memory seller’s market can last at least until mid-2028.
So the fundamentals haven’t collapsed; what collapsed are valuations and sentiment.
🟢 Lessons for crypto brothers
The "exploding earnings, plummeting stock prices" trend in storage chips is exactly the same as many tracks in the crypto world.
Think about the previous AI concept coins: project teams release a white paper and paint a big picture, and the coin price flies tenfold first. When it actually lands, even if the data is good, as long as it doesn’t meet the "most optimistic expectations," it crashes. This is the classic "buy the hype, sell the facts."
The current storage sector is going through this phase. The long-term logic of AI memory still holds, but the short-term stock price has overdrawn too much future. The market has switched from "speculating on dreams" to "looking at valuations," and is extremely sensitive to any data that falls short of expectations.
💡 My view
The AI memory bull market is not over, but the "buy anything and it goes up" phase is gone.
Next, the storage sector will differentiate: the true leaders with HBM capacity and Nvidia orders (SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung) will digest valuations with volatility, waiting for the next catalyst; while pure concept-chasing second- and third-tier stocks may be exposed.
For traders, now is not a good time to bottom-fish storage stocks. During the emotional ebb, there are still lower bottoms. But from a mid- to long-term allocation perspective, after this wave of panic subsides and the leaders’ valuations return to reasonable levels, AI memory remains one of the most certain tracks in semiconductors.
After all, to get AI running, computing power is the engine, memory is the fuel tank. The engine can be replaced, but the fuel in the tank can’t be less.
👇 Do you think this adjustment in storage chips is enough? How long can the AI memory bull market last? Let’s discuss in the comments.Don't be fooled, this is not a bull market signal
BTC active addresses have reached 980,000, the highest since December 2024. Retail investors see this data and get excited, thinking new money is coming in
But the truth is—Coldcard has collapsed, and everyone is moving out
The hardware wallet known in the community as "the safest" has a random number generation vulnerability; attackers can calculate private keys if they know the device ID and clock value
Since July 30, over 7,300 addresses have been compromised, 1,596 BTC lost, worth over $100 million. At least 15 attackers are operating simultaneously
The chain is completely blown up, about 890,000 BTC transferred within a week, even wallets dormant for 12.7 years were awakened, with 500 BTC moved overnight
In short, the 980,000 active addresses are driven by panic, not liquidity
Retail investors think a bull market is coming, but actually, a large amount of money is relocating 😶In the summer of 2026, South Korea's capital market experienced a deleveraging storm worthy of being written into financial textbooks. SK Hynix, the global leader in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), saw its stock price nearly halved in just over a month; The 2x leveraged ETF linked to SK Hynix—7709—saw its largest drop of over 85% during the same period, becoming one of the most representative cases of leveraged product crashes in Korea in recent years. Many people simply interpret this plunge as an "AI bubble burst" or "SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations." In fact, neither of these is the core reason. What truly causes the market to spiral out of control is not the fundamentals of a single company, but a nationwide financial experiment driven by leverage, capital structure, and investor sentiment. This experiment ultimately proved one thing: ups can be amplified by leverage, but downturns can be magnified exponentially by leverage. When the market enters a deleveraging phase, even the best companies may experience declines far exceeding fundamentals due to trading structure. 1. Why did SK Hynix nearly halve its price in just over a month? As a core supplier in the global HBM market, SK Hynix should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI wave. Over the past two years, with the rapid development of generative AI, HBM has almost become an indispensable core component of AI servers. Whether it's NVIDIA GPUs, AMD Instinct, or major cloud providers building AI data centers, all require massive HBM support. As a result, SK Hynix has become the focus of global capital pursuit. June 2026#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The Federal Reserve is currently taking a hawkish stance.
Although employment data has started to weaken, as long as inflation doesn't come down, this slight employment softness is not enough for it to cut interest rates.
Simply put: inflation holds more sway right now.
Unless there is a widespread surge in unemployment, high interest rates will persist for a long time. The stock market and crypto space are unlikely to see a strong one-way trend; mostly, they will fluctuate back and forth. $SNDK $BTC $ETH #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Uniswap Enters the Launchpad Arena, Can UNI Unlock a New Narrative?
DEX leader Uniswap officially steps into the launchpad space, with Pools.trade launching on Robinhood Chain, and a web-based Launches aggregated issuance portal going live, consolidating token issuance, discovery, and trading all within its own product, no longer just a secondary market trading tool. Following the news, UNI surged sharply, with a nearly 60% monthly increase, as the market began hyping a new integrated "issuance + trading" narrative.
Here’s a simple explanation of the product’s core logic: Pools.trade offers two token issuance modes—4-hour Crowd Launch auctions and Instant Launch one-click token issuance; once issued, tokens automatically connect to Uniswap v4 pools with liquidity permanently locked, reducing rug pull risks. There are no traditional launchpad high listing fees, only the pool’s basic trading fees. Previously, Uniswap only handled token turnover after listing; now it directly enters the token birth stage, capturing the full lifecycle traffic of meme coins and new tokens.
However, there is a practical issue: currently, this launchpad is limited to Robinhood Chain and has not expanded to Ethereum mainnet or other public chains. At this stage, it is a small-scale beta test, not yet a full-chain game changer.
The market is clearly divided into bulls and bears, so let’s break down two scenarios.
Scenario One: Launchpad narrative materializes, UNI undergoes value revaluation (Bullish logic)
1. Traffic closed loop forms: a large volume of meme and new tokens circulate within the Uniswap ecosystem from issuance, driving trading volume, which generates fees. Coupled with the activated v4 fee switch, fee returns drive UNI burn, creating a positive flywheel of "issuance - trading volume - fees - burn."
2. Capturing launchpad market share: traditional launchpads generally charge high fees and have exit risks. Uniswap’s brand endorsement and permanent locked pools will attract many project teams and retail users, with Robinhood Chain’s popularity boosting overall protocol revenue.
3. Future cross-chain expansion: if this model succeeds, expanding to multiple chains will transform Uniswap from just a DEX into the core infrastructure for token issuance in DeFi, directly unlocking UNI’s valuation ceiling.
Scenario Two: Concept outweighs substance, new narrative hard to realize (Bearish logic)
1. Scene heavily reliant on meme hype: launchpad trading volume depends heavily on MEME popularity; if market sentiment cools, new token issuance and trading volume will shrink rapidly, directly reducing revenue.
2. Currently limited to Robinhood Chain with a small ecosystem, making it difficult to bring explosive revenue growth to the overall protocol in the short term; more of a thematic hype.
3. Intense industry competition: established launchpads and native public chain launchpads will fiercely compete, while a flood of junk and scam tokens may cause large-scale pitfalls, damaging Uniswap’s brand reputation.
4. UNI’s biggest pain point remains: the token is still primarily governance-focused; launchpad revenue is indirectly passed through fee switches, not direct UNI dividends, making the revenue transmission chain long and realization slow.
Practical insights for trading:
1. Distinguish between theme and fundamentals: this UNI rally is driven by the v4 fee switch + new launchpad narrative + Robinhood Chain hype. The launchpad is a new story but still early stage; don’t mistake hype for realized performance.
2. Focus on two core validation metrics:
① Real trading volume and protocol fee increments generated by Pools.trade on Robinhood Chain;
② Whether the product will expand to Ethereum mainnet and other major chains.
Only if these two points materialize will the narrative truly convert into value; if it remains a small L2 chain test, it’s mostly short-term hype.
3. Don’t ignore broader market constraints: UNI is a DeFi sector leader; if the overall crypto market weakens, even the best narrative can’t independently drive a major bull run.
In summary: Uniswap’s entry into the launchpad space brings imagination for UNI but is still in early testing. The narrative is attractive but requires real trading volume and cross-chain deployment to validate. Avoid blindly chasing highs; it’s a thematic hype phase, so risk control comes first. Saying Dogecoin could eventually reach zero isn't a prediction—it's a thought experiment. The real question is: under what conditions could a $10B+ asset actually lose all of its value? 1️⃣ Technological Obsolescence $DOGE still relies on the Scrypt algorithm and shares security with Litecoin through merged mining. If Litecoin's mining ecosystem were to weaken significantly, Dogecoin's network security could deteriorate as well. A more immediate challenge is competition from newer payment ecosys$BTC: Funds are buying, but the price is stuck; tonight's non-farm payrolls will reveal the outcome
Family, let's be straightforward.
Currently hovering around 64300-64400, touched 65026 yesterday but got pushed back, still stubbornly stuck in the 64000-65000 range. No new developments technically; the 64500-65000 resistance above is firmly suppressing, and 64100-63800 is the key support below.
The news is somewhat interesting.
Funds are buying: ETF net inflows this week are about 750 million, the best week since April, with BlackRock IBIT contributing the most. Whales have also accumulated over 20,000 coins since July 29, worth about 1.2 billion. Institutions and big players are quietly accumulating; this is not empty talk.
Macro is easing a bit: ADP was weak, rate hike expectations have cooled, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased. US stocks remain high, but BTC's ability to follow the rally is still weak, clearly decoupling.
The hard part is also here: The CLARITY Act is basically dead, the market has priced it in early. The real killer is tonight's non-farm payrolls; if the data is strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC is likely to get hit; if the data is weak, it might provide some breathing room.
Overall: Funds are supporting the bottom, but the price just can't break through 65000; selling pressure and cautious sentiment remain above. August is historically a weak month for Bitcoin, plus tonight's non-farm payrolls, so short-term is very likely to continue oscillating.
Long/short reference:
For longs, prioritize the 64100-63800 support zone, stop loss below 63500, target 64500-64800.
For shorts, prioritize the 64800-65000 resistance zone, stop loss above 65200, target first at 64100.
If the direction is unclear, trade less and avoid heavy positions. Manage your position size carefully.
The market has risks; invest cautiously. $BTC $ETH Brothers, tonight is the non-farm payrolls, and I'm not excited at all, even a bit anxious.
I know many people are hoping for the data to crash, thinking that if it crashes, the Fed will have to cut rates, and easing is bullish. But I've been burned by this before. There was a time when macro data bombed, and the whole network was shouting for a bull comeback, but the market reversed into a recession panic, and risk assets all got smashed, with long positions buried.
So now I'm especially cautious about these "obvious bullish signals." Poor data might indeed force a rate cut, but if it's bad enough to make the market think the economy is heading for a hard landing, the first reaction of capital is to flee, not to bottom-fish. The crypto market never holds up in the face of such panic.
Tonight's expected new jobs are about 70,000. If the data is just a bit worse than this, that's the market's favorite script: rate cut expectations heat up but not enough to scare people, giving BTC a chance to push up. If the data crashes too hard, say down to 30,000 or 40,000 or even lower, that's dangerous. Gold will likely surge first, US Treasury yields will plunge, which is a typical safe-haven move and not good for risk assets. Conversely, if the data beats expectations and employment remains strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC will probably have to pull back.
So my strategy tonight is one word: watch. My account now only holds some BTC and ETH call options, and my futures positions are almost untouched. This kind of data-driven volatility with spikes up and down is normal; rushing in to chase gains and cut losses is the easiest way to get hit from both sides. Watching with low leverage and light positions is nothing to be ashamed of.
💬 Interaction
Tonight's non-farm payrolls, do you think the data will beat expectations or bomb? Place your bets in the comments, and we'll see tomorrow who turns out to be the contrarian indicator. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, with the Dow ending its five-day winning streak. The overall decline was limited, merely a short-term profit-taking digestion, with no panic selling pressure. The market showed a particularly clear structural divergence, not an overall weakening.
Within tech stocks, there was a severe split between gains and losses. The storage chip sector was the most abnormal, opening lower and then rising before still falling broadly. Western Digital led the decline, with SanDisk and SK Hynix weakening simultaneously, while only Seagate closed slightly higher. Other chip sectors were relatively strong, with ARM, Qualcomm, AMD, and TSMC all rising, and Nvidia and Intel making slight adjustments.
The AI application sector was the biggest weak spot overnight, with sentiment cooling rapidly and many core stocks plunging. Datadog and Applovin fell over 19%, showing clear signs of short-term capital flight.
🚀 SpaceX Extreme Negative News Reversal Rally
The previous day, the stock plummeted over 13%, compounded by a trillion-level lock-up release, with the market unanimously bearish. However, on the day of the release, it surged over 6% against the trend, with market cap returning above 1.5 trillion and trading volume hitting a one-and-a-half-month high.
Core logic behind the reversal:
- Negative news was priced in early: The previous day’s plunge fully digested the lock-up pressure, releasing selling pressure in advance
- Shorts forced to cover: High short positions were wrong-footed, passive buying pushed the stock price up
- Strong institutional support: Multiple investment banks raised target prices and maintained buy ratings
- Retail investors eagerly bottom-fished: Opening buy volume far exceeded daily averages
Note: This is only the first round of lock-up releases; there will be large-scale releases at the end of this year and next year, so the rally is only a short-term sentiment recovery. Additionally, SpaceX’s joint $16.8 billion Texas superchip factory with Tesla is underway, providing ongoing hardware sector catalysts.
📰 Overnight Key News Highlights
- Hormuz Strait agreement not reached; U.S. continues negotiations, supporting oil prices sentimentally
- U.S. plans to delay polysilicon tariffs, setting a transition period, benefiting the domestic photovoltaic import supply chain
- High-end memory shortage; Nvidia plans to reduce new chip memory specifications
- OpenAI opens unlimited free text chat for users, countersues Apple for infringement claims
- U.S. introduces new policies cracking down on birth tourism and tightening birthright citizenship, with legal battles expected
- World’s first mRNA flu vaccine approved, accelerating sector commercialization
- Trump frequently liaises with new Fed chair; upcoming monetary policy is worth watching
In summary, the core of the overnight market was a trade on expectation gaps.
The widely bearish negative news materialized but failed to trigger a sell-off, even sparking a reversal rally.
Continue to closely monitor the tech sector and the follow-up performance of stocks with lock-up releases.
$SPCX $SKHY $WDC #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
Gold has fully played the "safe haven" role this week: spot prices touched around $4280, with a weekly gain close to 6%, reaching about a seven-week high. BTC, however, has been hovering around $64,000, moving sideways, showing a completely different rhythm.
According to the old logic, gold and BTC share the narrative of "scarce assets" and "hedging currency depreciation"; when gold surges, BTC should benefit somewhat. But this time, the market clearly did not follow that script.
The reason is not hard to find: these two groups of buyers are not buying into the same story at all.
Gold is driven by more direct macro expectations. Falling oil prices have eased inflation expectations, employment data has reignited market judgments on interest rate paths, and money naturally flows into traditional safe-haven assets. After breaking through $4200, gold continued to push above $4280, and trend-following funds, seeing the momentum, have become even more enthusiastic.
The environment facing BTC is much more complex.
In the long term, it has the story of a store of value, but in short-term trading, it never sheds the label of a risk asset. Whenever there is turbulence in U.S. tech stocks, many funds' first reaction is not "gold is up, so BTC should be bought too," but rather to reduce their high-volatility positions first.
Price movements confirm this. On August 4, BTC was around $63,500, then returned above $64,000, and around August 6, about $64,700. It did not continue to crash, indicating there were buyers at the lower levels; but compared to gold’s nearly 6% weekly gain, BTC clearly lacks a strong force of active buying.
Interestingly, BTC is not without support. Demand for spot ETFs remains resilient, and institutional funds have not truly withdrawn. The current state is more like "someone is holding it up, but no one is pushing it higher"—the price can hold above $60,000 but cannot break out in a continuous rally like gold.
One thing to be clear about here: long-term narratives can be shared, but short-term trading cannot be conflated.
Gold is currently trading on safe haven, interest rate, and inflation expectations; BTC, besides these, also needs to consider U.S. stock market risk appetite, ETF fund flows, leveraged positions, and whether new incremental funds are entering the entire crypto market.
Therefore, I won’t rush to conclude that BTC will immediately catch up just because gold has risen.
What’s more worth watching is: after gold stabilizes above $4200, if the macro environment continues to move toward easing, and BTC can hold around $63,000–$64,000, when risk appetite warms up, will funds reprice BTC’s "digital gold" attribute?
If by then gold remains high and BTC shows significant volume increase and sustained net inflows, this long-delayed catch-up rally will truly begin.Actually, I have always believed: the Federal Reserve is not as composed as the market imagines. Rate hikes are more like a political performance before the midterm elections, while rate cuts are the predetermined endgame — no matter how much the performance goes on, it can't change the inevitable conclusion of high interest rates coming to an end, which is also why I have been bullish all along.
Looking at the recent situation in the crypto space, Bitcoin $BTC has been repeatedly testing around $64,000, Ethereum $ETH hovers around $1,900. Weak ADP data once pushed BTC higher, but as hawkish signals reemerged, BTC and ETH fell about 2.8% and 3.6% respectively last week, with net outflows from spot ETFs.
ADP new jobs plunged to 44,000, less than half of last month, but PCE inflation remains high at 3.7%. Amid this data contradiction, Cook and Kashkari took turns calling for rate hikes, but everyone knows these tough words won't last long.
The capital market votes with real money. On August 4, Nvidia and Microsoft each contributed about $700 billion in market value, and the Nasdaq surged 2.13%; but once the probability of rate hikes rose, on August 6 memory chip stocks plummeted in response, Western Digital dropped 13%, SanDisk $SNDK fell over 6%, and AI software stocks also plunged.
Short-term hawkish slogans will continue to be shouted, but once the midterm elections are over, high interest rates must come to an end. Debt pressure and economic slowdown make rate cuts not an option but an inevitability. Nvidia, Western Digital, Bitcoin, Ethereum — all are waiting for that turning point, and that point is actually not far away.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Long and Short Crowding List
Continuously paying fees on one side is not scary; what is worth being cautious about is paying fees but failing to push the price.
$SKHYNIX current rate +0.3202%, settled +0.368% in the past 24 hours, at the 90th percentile of recent samples. The 15-minute rise with reduced positions looks more like short covering or overall position withdrawal, and new long positions have not yet been confirmed. Even with extreme rates, the most certain thing when OI contracts is deleveraging; which side is exiting cannot be concluded based on this data alone.
$BICO current rate -0.1828%, settled -0.408% in the past 24 hours, at the 2nd percentile of recent samples. Price is going down, and positions are also decreasing; position retreat is more certain than directional attribution. The crowding indicator remains, but risk exposure is decreasing, so treat this period as deleveraging.
$RIVER current rate +0.0122%, settled +0.084% in the past 24 hours, at the 84th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions are rising together; this fluctuation involves new positions, not just position reduction. Longs continue to pay fees and increase positions, crowding still has price feedback; once positions increase but price fails to move, risk will quickly rise.😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? Brothers, ALLO surged 14.07% today, currently priced at $0.3159, rebounding again from the $0.27‑0.30 support zone.
The past 4‑5 weeks' pattern is highly repetitive: rally → sharp drop → seeking support → rebound, more driven by capital momentum rather than solid long-term fundamentals.
Many say this time will be different, with the logic being that Cobot and Quack AI have completed integration, no longer just a whitepaper roadmap but with actual product implementation.
The core highlight of Allora is multi-AI model prediction + confidence-weighted output, with paper tests showing better results than ordinary averaging algorithms.
Key risk: the unlocking test on August 11
About 17.25 million ALLO tokens will be unlocked, corresponding to a market value of about $4.5 million.
In tokenomics, supporters and core contributors’ shares are locked long-term, with a staking reward cap of 12% combined with a smooth release mechanism, which will somewhat alleviate selling pressure.
Resistance: $0.38‑0.40, must break out with volume to confirm trend strengthening
Support: $0.27‑0.30, holding this bullishly is the bargaining chip; a valid break below means turning bearish again
Multiple bottom tests and rebounds only indicate that there is capital willing to buy at this level, not a solid bottom; a weakening market can still break through.
It is still a speculative market now; the product has progress but has not yet commercialized. The August 11 unlocking is a short-term touchstone; focus closely on support and volume.
Personal market analysis and information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ALLO
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METISSanDisk and Western Digital were sold off despite strong earnings reports due to guidance falling short of overheated expectations. The core conflict lies in the liquidation of long positions at high valuations versus the long-term supply-demand improvement in AI storage.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, with over two-thirds of growth driven by average selling price increases. Western Digital's revenue was $3.747 billion, both confirming high gross margin capabilities. However, funds still used SanDisk's next quarter guidance of $10.55 billion, which missed very high expectations, as a trigger to sell off. Intraday, $SNDK dipped to $116.7, $WDC retraced to $40.8, dragging down other storage stocks like Micron, reflecting a sharp drop in market risk appetite during the peak expectation realization period, triggering concentrated exits of leveraged positions and profit-taking.
The current priority of driving factors is: the pressure of chip liquidation under extremely high expectations outweighs valuation reshaping caused by cautious management guidance, which in turn outweighs the fundamental support from industry-wide average selling price increases.
The bullish scenario requires stabilization of chips at key support levels after the sell-off wave. If funds recognize the optimization of industry supply-demand structure, and within the next three trading days $SNDK holds the $116.7 bottom and recovers the guidance gap, while Micron and $WDC stop falling and rebound, it indicates the negative news has been absorbed and the washout is over, and the valuation recovery rally will restart. The signal that this scenario fails is an intraday rebound with low volume followed by a break below the sell-off low.
The bearish scenario stems from continued contraction in risk appetite causing valuation downgrades. If macro risk appetite fails to stabilize and the sell-off further squeezes derivative positions, causing SanDisk to fail to maintain above $116.7, extremely optimistic funds will turn to continuous withdrawal, triggering a sector-wide correction. The signal that this scenario fails is major funds buying heavily on dips and pushing SanDisk to stabilize and rebound.
Overall, the condition for the bullish expectation to fail is stagnation in enterprise SSD demand growth or a month-over-month decline in average product selling price, meaning the current profit-driving momentum no longer exists.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the strength of fund support at $SNDK $116.7 and $WDC $40.8 support levels, as well as liquidity recovery of the SOXX semiconductor index after position adjustments.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解