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🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on August 7, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July nonfarm payroll report. This is a data set that shocked the market. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July after seasonally adjustment, marking the first decline since February, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. Previously, data from May and June was also sharply revised downward, totaling 103,000 people. Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate fell further from 61.5% to 61.4%, the lowest level in over five years. Analysts point out that the decline in unemployment is accompanied by a continued decline in labor force participation, meaning more people are leaving the workforce rather than improving employment. This is a typical case of "bad news is good news" data. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped significantly in the U.S. interest rate futures market, and traders lowered their bets on a rate hike in 2026. The federal funds overnight index swap shows that only 28 basis points of rate hikes are expected by December, down from 32 basis points before the data was released. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4.29 basis points to 4.627%, the US dollar index fell in the short term, while US stock futures rose across the board. Spot gold rose 3% intraday to $4,368, while spot silver gained over 5%. BTC surged rapidly from around $64,400 before the data release, breaking through the $65,000 mark to $65,400, a 24-hour increase of about 1.3%. The nonfarm payroll data was the first complete release after the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting "held on for time."Citibank just set a $SNDk price target of $2100, on what basis? Citibank just returned from SanDisk's Silicon Valley headquarters—meeting with the CEO, CFO, and IR team. Combining insights from FMS 2026 and the recently released June quarterly earnings report, they produced an in-depth report. Today, US Stock Investment Network breaks down the core content of this report for you. First key point: Management is extremely optimistic Citibank described management's attitude as "very bullish" and "increasingly constructive"—terms not casually used in investment bank research reports. The reason for optimism is simple: AI inference is driving structural growth in data center storage demand, and this is not a short cycle but a long-term trend. Citibank expects the total addressable market (TAM) related to NAND to grow from about $300 billion in 2026 to about $500 billion in 2027. An incremental $200 billion in one year. Citibank believes that current global NAND demand has fully exceeded supply, and the supply-demand imbalance may continue beyond 2027. Rapid growth in AI data center demand, combined with relatively conservative global storage industry capital expenditure, means high-end capacity is prioritized for AI-related products. Citibank maintains an estimate of about 20% growth in global NAND bit supply in 2026. In short: this is not cyclical, it is structural. Second key point: The business model is undergoing fundamental change What SanDisk is doing may be more important than many realize—shifting from "weather-dependent" to "contract-dependent." The core lever is called NBM (New Business Model), which essentially means long-term supply agreements. Management expects NBM to cover over 50% of shipments in fiscal 2027 and reach two-thirds in fiscal 2028, with an average contract term of 4 years. Citibank's report also revealed a detail: NAND suppliers have locked in a significant proportion of future capacity through long-term agreements. SanDisk reportedly has locked in 60-70% of supply for 2027, while peers are around 50%. What are the direct results? First, structurally high gross margins. Even at bottom price levels, NBM contracts can still achieve about 80% gross margin. By comparison, SanDisk's gross margin was only 30.3% in FY25, rising to 69.2% in FY26e, and surging to 86.7% in FY27e. From 30% to 80%, this is not optimization, it is a qualitative change. Actual data confirms this—the latest quarter's non-GAAP gross margin has already hit 84.6%. Second, significantly improved earnings visibility and cash flow predictability. Last quarter's free cash flow (FCF) margin reached 56%. After making money, they directly repurchased $4.5 billion in stock, with $14.5 billion remaining in buyback capacity. Citibank gave a very direct evaluation: "These long-term agreements should allow SanDisk to enjoy a higher valuation premium than peers." Third key point: Citibank's view on valuation Citibank maintains a buy rating with a $2100 price target—based on a 9x CY27E EPS valuation. A background note: On June 25, about a month and a half ago, Citibank raised the price target from $2025 to $2500. This downgrade is not due to a change in bearish logic but because Q4 guidance was slightly below expectations—Citibank still maintains a buy rating in the report. Citibank also specifically mentioned that SanDisk has about $15 to $20 billion of invested capital (replacement cost) in joint ventures, which is not reflected in the financial statements. Citibank clearly pointed out three risks: Chinese manufacturers aggressively capturing market share could trigger a price war, causing the currently underutilized industry capacity to quickly shift to oversupply; Deterioration in the macro environment could drag down enterprise SSD and AI-PC upgrade demand; Supply-demand imbalance or price competition could cause severe price volatility, seriously impacting profit margins. Citibank also specifically noted: "Currently underutilized industry capacity can quickly reverse to oversupply in a very short time, causing the ideal conditions for price increases to vanish instantly." This statement is important—Citibank is optimistic about the long-term trend but remains clear-eyed about short-term supply-demand battles. Short-term catalyst: August 13 Investor Day SanDisk will hold an Investor Day on August 13 (Thursday) at 9 AM ET, expected to update the technology roadmap, customer adoption trends, demand drivers, and target operating model. This may be the most important catalyst in the near term. US Stock Investment Network analysis believes what SanDisk is doing essentially smooths out the storage industry's cyclicality with long-term contracts. What was the biggest problem for storage chip companies in the past? Cyclicality. They made huge profits when prices rose and suffered heavy losses when prices fell. Investors were reluctant to give high valuations because they didn't know when the next cycle would come. But if 80% gross margin is locked in by 4-year long-term contracts, the company's valuation logic completely changes—from a "cyclical stock" to a "cash flow machine." Citibank gives a 9x PE, while peers only have 6-8x; the core of the premium lies here. Of course, risks are real. Chinese manufacturers' capacity could bring prices down anytime, and the macroeconomic clouds have not cleared. But if you believe AI inference demand for storage is structural and long-term, what SanDisk is doing is worth your serious attention. Brothers, tonight's data is chilling to the bone. Nonfarm payrolls directly turned negative, with July losing 23,000 jobs, while the market had previously expected an increase of 80,000. This contrast is huge; labor demand is truly declining. The private sector only added 30,000 jobs, versus an expected 78,000 and a previous 49,000. The foundation of the entire employment market is weaker than everyone thought. But strangely, the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Jobs decreased, yet unemployment fell—these two data points directly conflict. More subtle is the wage data: average hourly earnings in July rose by just 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating wage growth is also slowing. Honestly, data is data, and the market is the market. Observing recently, the market’s reactions to bad and good news are completely different. When bad news hits, the price plunges sharply without hesitation. When good news comes out? It creeps up slowly, like squeezing toothpaste—price gains are reluctant and unsatisfying. This clearly shows the market is jittery, like a startled bird; it runs at the slightest disturbance but hesitates when given a treat. In this environment, chasing highs is the biggest loss. The initial surge on good news looks tempting but likely won’t hold; if you chase it, it will just crash back. Conversely, when bad news creates a dip, the real test is whether you dare to buy the dip. I’m sticking to my old strategy: keep my position light and don’t rush in. Waiting for the market to find its own footing is better than anything. With this data out, the market has to reassess the Fed’s next move. Poor employment would normally strengthen the case for rate cuts. The Fed’s current policy rate is 3.75%, and this data will definitely push discussions toward “supporting growth.” But with unemployment still at 4.1%, looking at just one month’s data, the Fed is unlikely to pivot immediately. From the market perspective, this kind of contradictory data is the hardest to navigate. On one hand, negative employment numbers push for rate cuts; on the other, the stable unemployment rate gives hawks some room. I’ve repeatedly said not to heavily bet on data because of this kind of conflicting scenario. Getting the direction right is only the first step; timing is critical—even a minute off can be costly, especially with data that contradicts itself. The best move now is to stay put and watch, waiting for the market to fully digest the information. 💬 Interaction Bad news hits hard, good news can’t push prices up—are you still trading in this market? Comment below whether you’re sitting on the sidelines or jumping in to play. $BTC $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ A few casual macro thoughts tonight: This round of employment data is like fighting with itself According to the old textbook routine, private sector hiring collapses → no reason to continue raising rates → money gets cheaper → non-yielding gold should take off. July ADP indeed only gave 44,000, the worst so far this year, and gold also performed well, touching 4300 intraday (the first time since mid-June), but it didn’t hold, and was pushed back to hover around 4250. Can 4300 be turned into a floor and then surge higher? Honestly, it all depends on the nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 PM tonight. But look at the initial jobless claims on the same day: 199,000, stuck below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, the lowest since September 2022. On one hand, ADP screams "people are collapsing," on the other, initial claims say "jobs are still stable." The market is split in two—left side hears small businesses crying, right side sees big companies not laying off. Goldman Sachs and Barclays don’t bother arguing; they just point out: ADP tends to be skewed by small company samples and isn’t accurate for predicting nonfarm payrolls; low initial claims are the real signal, indicating companies "don’t want to hire but can’t bear to fire," which is the so-called "low hiring, low firing" slow-motion employment everyone talks about now. The Federal Reserve itself hasn’t unified its message. Cook: "If inflation doesn’t come down, I’ll act"; Schmidt: "Current rates aren’t tight enough, should raise"; Baysent: "No need to raise at this stage." Three people, three scripts. CME shows a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, with half the table betting on a hike and half playing dead. The asset reaction is especially interesting— SanDisk (SNDK) fears rate tail swings the most. Revenue 8.97 billion, year-over-year surge of 372%, gross margin 84.6%, casually approved a 14 billion buyback, this report card would have hit the daily limit last year. Result: -7% after hours. Why? The market isn’t looking at past performance; it’s focused on tomorrow’s discount rate. If future rates tighten, high-valuation growth stocks fall first, no matter how good past results were. Gold (XAU) logic is the smoothest. Soft ADP → rate hike probability drops → dollar weakens → gold attracts money. The surge to 4300 was purely trading the expectation that "rates won’t be as hawkish." It’s awkward for BTC. Same macro script, gold surges violently, BTC lies flat like a dead fish at 64,000. Not that ETFs aren’t buying—on August 6 alone, net inflow was $243 million, money is coming in. But the price doesn’t move. More amusingly: Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, U.S. institutions are quietly selling, Asian markets are buying. Fed internal divisions + expectations of rate cuts and rate hike risks tug BTC in the middle, grinding it like sandpaper. Gold is trading rate expectations, BTC is waiting for its own fuse. It’s not that BTC ignores macro, but macro itself has no direction, so funds dare not bet one way. Looking ahead, there are two nails: Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls, next Thursday’s CPI. Once these two numbers come out, whether to hike in September will basically be decided. If yes, risk assets collectively pull back; if no, gold lives on, and BTC finally dares to choose a direction. Before nonfarm payrolls, don’t tie yourself to a direction, wait for the gunshot before moving. $BTC $ETH A routine but noteworthy settlement day in the crypto market. According to Greeks.live data, Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts with a total nominal value exceeding $2.4 billion are expiring. The specific data is as follows: 32,000 Bitcoin options expire, with a put/call ratio as low as 0.26, and the maximum pain point at $64,000, with a nominal value of $2.06 billion. Ethereum options have 177,000 to expire, with a PCR ratio of 0.77, a maximum pain point of $1,900, and a nominal value of $340 million. Among these numbers, the most noteworthy is the PCR rate. Bitcoin's PCR is only 0.26, which is a very low level, indicating very little open interest in put options in the market, and traders have weak demand for options to hedge against declines. $BTC Looking at the price, Bitcoin has been hovering around $64,000 this week, having been fluctuating in this range for two months. Researcher Adam's view is that the global market's attention is currently not on cryptocurrencies, and speculative funds may not flow in significantly in the short term. From a technical perspective, the $65,000 level was a heavily traded area formed during the early rally and has now become resistance. In this situation of stock competition and lack of new capital inflow, if an effective breakthrough is delayed, the upward direction may be more likely to move downward. $ETH Back to the options data itself. Options expiring this week account for 9% of total holdings, which is not a low proportion. Most of these are out-of-the-money call options 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit July Nonfarm Payrolls Directly Shrink by 23,000: Are We Really About to Welcome a Rate Cut Frenzy? The just-released U.S. July nonfarm payrolls directly shrank by 23,000, not only far below the previous market expectation of positive growth but even falling into negative territory. Meanwhile, historical data for May and June were also cut by 103,000. Facing this brutal employment report, major trading groups are already wildly celebrating the settled dust of a September rate cut. But is this really a cause for universal celebration? The answer might be quite the opposite. This could indicate that the previously market-believed "resilient employment and soft landing" was just a statistical illusion. Although rate cut expectations are indeed soaring, this also means the door to recession trades has been completely opened. When a labor market once claimed to be highly resilient shows a net job loss in just two months, it means the poison of high interest rates on the denominator side has already eroded the marrow of real businesses. So, if employment is contracting, why did the unemployment rate slightly drop from 4.2% to 4.1%? This is actually the most chilling part of the report. The slight drop in unemployment rate is not because the unemployed found jobs again, but because a large number of people, desperate to find work, directly exited the labor market and were mercilessly removed from the statistical denominator. This unemployment "improvement" squeezed out by a decline in labor force participation is an atypical feature of recession periods, not a self-repair of the employment market. Then, as asset allocators, at this moment when liquidity logic is instantly reshaped, what should we do? When the data came out tonight and I saw the negative 23,000 figure, I didn’t blindly follow the crowd to chase a rebound and go long; instead, I cleared part of my short U.S. Treasury positions and locked in yields. Because I understand that while rate cut expectations can bring short-term price pulses, the ensuing recessionary drain is the real ruthless killer. Until it’s clear whether the Fed will be forced to urgently cut 50 basis points in September due to this disastrous report, any position overly exposed to risky growth assets could be instantly overturned in a second liquidity shock. Here’s a question for you: If tonight U.S. Treasury yields plunge sharply due to rate cut expectations, but next week’s CPI inflation remains stubbornly high, do you think the market will choose to trade "rate cut rescue" or "stagflation poison"? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 A common phenomenon in the US stock market is that everyone is bullish before the market opens, but the market quickly drops at the opening. On the evening of August 7, SanDisk's SNDK was the most typical example. Many investors wonder: - Isn't the financial report not very good? - Pre-market funds have been buying, so why was it slashed at the opening? - Is the main force deliberately selling off? In fact, if you look at today's entire market together, you'll find that this decline isn't caused by just one reason, but by four forces working together. Chapter 1: The Most Common Market Mistakes: Interpreting Good News as a Rise SanDisk's latest financial report is actually not bad overall. The company's revenue continues to grow rapidly, with the AI data center business remaining the biggest highlight, and profitability far exceeding market expectations. Overall, this report card can be considered an excellent financial report. Therefore, the first reaction of pre-market US stock funds is: buy first. As a result, the pre-market stock price steadily climbed. However, when U.S. stocks are truly traded, they are not trading yesterday, but trading the future. What the market truly focuses on is: Can it continue to exceed expectations in the next quarter? And here, the problem arises. Chapter 2: What Really Crushes the Stock Price Is Future Guidance Although SanDisk delivered impressive results, management's revenue forecast for the next quarter was slightly below Wall Street's previous forecasts. Simply put: Market estimate: 100 points. The company tells everyone: about 95 points. Although a score of 95 is already good, the capital market trades the expectation gap. Even if it was just a contest Many people compare SOL with ETH and directly say ETH is no good; this point needs to be clear. ETH is no longer positioned as a high-performance public chain; it is the underlying settlement layer for the entire crypto space. Most stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA real-world assets are still rooted here, with a large amount of tokens staked and locked long-term. This is a foundational advantage that altcoins and SOL cannot match. Positive catalysts: upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, staking ETFs, and the explosion of RWA asset tokenization are all potential triggers for a major market rally. Recently, the market also shows that during a market pullback, ETH's resilience is clearly stronger than that of SOL and similar tokens, making it the preferred choice for capital seeking safety. But the pitfalls must also be recognized: L2 layer two solutions divert mainnet revenue, reducing burn, so it’s no longer the strong deflation narrative it used to be; SEC regulation hangs overhead; SOL competes aggressively for users and developers, so competitive pressure is real. ETH is not a violent underdog; it follows the institutional slow bull logic. There will be big moves in a bull market, but it won’t surge every day. Only those who endure will reap the rewards. Don’t treat ETH like an altcoin to speculate on; don’t chase highs all at once. It’s more appropriate to accumulate gradually during pullbacks. $ETH The future of the crypto world is very pessimistic because, at present, its second phase mission seems unfulfilled. Its first phase mission has been achieved: to make digital currency one of the mainstream currencies, a phase that relies on consensus. Its second phase mission is to become a financial market comparable to or even surpassing Nasdaq*, but achieving this stage is difficult because it relies on the overall quality of the players. Why do I say this? Because to surpass Nasdaq, it must be decentralized, becoming an independent fast-paced financing market without complicated procedures. For example, when Zhang San wants to start a company, he has a very good idea and operating model. He no longer needs to patiently persuade investors or raise funds in mainstream markets with barriers like A-shares or US stocks. You only need to go to the crypto world to easily raise tens of millions or even hundreds of millions to realize your vision. What the crypto industry needs to do now is to incubate dozens of unicorn companies for the real industry to prove its value. But now, the overall quality of the crypto industry is low, scammers run rampant, and most projects are just scamming money. Top exchange controllers, such as Zhao Changpeng+, should have played a role similar to the CSRC chairman, but in his own perception, he is a casino owner. The entire industry is full of scammers and gamblers throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream; lack of regulation and high overall quality are inherently inherently unacceptable 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit Ten hard-learned lessons from $ETH traders: 1. Protecting your principal is the investor's first rule. 2. Stick to a few assets, never go all in, and follow the trend. 3. Avoid heavy positions, don't fight the market, and don't trade frequently. 4. Buy patiently, sell decisively, and never delay stop-loss. 5. Money can always be made, but it can also be lost completely. 6. When stop-loss is triggered, exit unconditionally; stop-loss is always right. 7. Don't trade just because the market moves; missing some opportunities is normal, capturing some is enough. 8. Waiting for trading opportunities is always better than chasing them. 9. Stop-loss is yours to manage; profits are given by the market. 10. Mindset is fragile in the face of desire. Follow your trading strategy strictly and achieve unity of knowledge and action! These truths cost me millions to realize. I hope fellow traders will study them carefully, find them helpful, and achieve enlightenment and financial freedom soon! 🌙 Quick recap tonight｜This market feels drained, just waiting for the nonfarm payrolls shot 👂 1. Macro: The big players are collectively "hawkish" 💥 The Fed folks have been really tough lately. Kashkari, Cook, Daly have been taking turns, all implying the same thing: "More hikes needed, current pace isn't enough." CME's odds for a 25bps hike in September are stuck at 55%, down from 67% earlier this week, but still over half, which is bearish. 📰 The Financial Times is even more aggressive: if inflation stays stubborn, Wash is ready to act in September. US Treasuries got hammered, yields soaring. 📉 Yesterday's ADP data was only +44K, quite weak, showing hiring is slowing. But Powell only cares about inflation; weaker employment might make him more aggressive. 🛢️ 2. Geopolitics & External: Oil went crazy, gold faltered 🚀 Crude oil played a deep V, WTI surged to $77.9, up over 3 points. Why? The Strait of Hormuz is nearly blocked, plus Saudi Arabia cut exports to the US to zero. But there’s counter news that US and Iran talks in Oman are close, possibly "partially" reopening the strait. This jump in oil reignited inflation expectations. 💰 Gold underperformed, down 0.45% closing at 4261. It last touched 4300 back in June but was scared back by the Fed’s comments. CITIC is optimistic, saying $4000 is basically a solid floor. 🧠 Storage chips remain a hard logic: Samsung, Hynix, Micron have locked capacity through next year, shortages to last until 2027. Changxin ignores Apple’s price cuts, very confident. Nvidia is so tight on DRAM supply it’s even considering cutting memory on Rubin Ultra GPUs. 📈 3. Market technicals: pent-up, ready to move! 📉 BTC — The big trend is unchanged, bears still dominate. Monthly MACD is underwater, weekly hasn’t even crossed moving averages. Daily barely closed above MA20 (64363), but MACD green bars reappeared, volume is pitiful, currently stuck in the 62500-66200 range. 🤐 Focus on 4H and 1H charts, Bollinger Band widths shrunk to 2.3% and 1.1%! Classic "suffocation" pattern, countdown to breakout. 💪 ETH — This week’s leader, slightly stronger than BTC. Daily is above 1889 and 1790 MAs, RSI looks better. But same issues: low volume, narrow range, MACD weakening. Support at 1832, resistance at 1945. 😩 SOL — The weakest at $726, all moving averages bearish, avoid for now. 🎰 4. Derivatives data: Nobody’s playing? 😌 Funding rates are normal, longs pay a bit of interest, nothing crazy. 📦 Open interest isn’t high, BTC around $2B, ETH $1.28B, showing cautious sentiment. 🚫 Spot premium turned negative, meaning US spot buyers don’t want to take the risk, confidence is low. 😨 Fear & Greed Index at 29, still in fear zone but slightly recovered from yesterday’s 25 (extreme fear). 📉 Most critical is DVOL (volatility index) dropped to 35! It was 46 this morning, combined with tightening Bollinger Bands, this is "calm before the storm." 🎯 5. Core view: Don’t guess, wait for signals 🤫 Current situation: no volatility, volume dried up, sentiment fearful. This signals a pending breakout but direction unknown. BTC at 64K is exactly the max pain point for options, main players controlling the market steadily. 🚶‍♂️ This week’s annoying phenomenon: US stocks rallying while crypto is shrinking. "Follow the drop, not the rise" means macro headwinds (rate hikes + nonfarm) are too strong, funds hesitate to jump in. 🥇 Relative strength ranking: ETH > BTC > SOL. If going long, prioritize ETH. 🧭 6. Summary 🧐 Long-term bearish unchanged, short-term pent-up. How it moves tonight through tomorrow depends entirely on Friday’s nonfarm data. Though the macro is bearish, everyone is already trapped; chasing shorts now risks losses. Be patient, wait for a breakout from the range before acting. 🛠️ 7. Tonight’s plan? (Just ideas, not advice) 🟢 BTC: Range trade between 62500-66200. Near lower edge 62200-62500, light buy for rebound (stop loss below 61800). Near upper edge 66000, reduce or try short. Avoid heavy bets on direction before nonfarm! 💎 ETH: Buy on pullback to 1832-1850 (near MA20), stop loss below 1810, target 1945 first, then 1982 if broken. Best long choice. 🔴 SOL: Too weak, don’t bottom fish yet. Consider short only if it rebounds to 73-74. 🛑 Safety mantra: Low volatility + Bollinger squeeze = imminent breakout, direction unknown. Keep positions light! Friday nonfarm is the biggest "bomb," don’t "run naked" before data. 🚨 8. Risk warning 💣 Most important: Nonfarm data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight! Strong employment = steady hikes = risk asset crash. Biggest risk this week. 🗣️ Fed’s Barkin speaks at 10pm, New York Fed inflation expectations data at 3am. 🕌 Middle East is volatile; US-Iran deal means oil down, good for stocks and crypto; talks fail means oil up, inflation spikes, bearish. 🎣 Final reminder: In this low-volume market, fake breakouts are common. Always wait for volume confirmation, don’t get stopped out by manipulative moves. $BTC $ETH $SOL 就在SK海力士股价还在1000美元关口挣扎时，链上数据却披露了一个令人侧目的细节：一位神秘空头巨鲸，似乎认定这只半导体牛股的暴跌远未结束。据TradingBeats监测，截至8月7日，一个以“0x6bb”开头的地址，正在上演一场极为坚定的做空大戏。即便SK海力士股价已从高点腰斩至1042美元，该巨鲸仍在加码押注，他将占现有空仓近九成的止盈单，密密麻麻地布置在了 600美元至747美元的价格区间。这意味着，在他的蓝图里，SK海力士的股价至少还要再跌 28%，最深得再砍四成，才能满足他的胃口。这不是一时冲动的赌博，而是一场精心计算的持久战。$SKHYNIX 回顾操作轨迹，这位巨鲸绝非等闲之辈。早在6月22日，当SK海力士股价还站在1892美元的高位时，他便开始系统性布空。此后一个多月，他展现出极高的操盘耐心，股价下跌时便回补部分仓位获利，遇到反弹则毫不犹豫地再次加空，通过这种“下跌回补、反弹再空”的滚动操作，将其综合建仓成本巧妙地拉低至1338.3美元。目前该地址以10倍杠杆全仓做空6687份SKHX合约，仓位价值约696.9万美元。账面近200万美元的浮盈并未让他满足，反而 The evening coin price continued the bottom-rebound trend from the afternoon, further breaking through the previous upper resistance level. The coin price rebounded to a high near 65,300, then faced pressure again in the short-term top range and fell back. The current coin price correction trend is still ongoing. The short-term bullish trend given to everyone during this morning's strategy and live broadcast was perfectly validated in this afternoon's rally. Our live trading layout also gained nearly a thousand points of profit again. The release of the non-farm payroll data in the evening and the slight gap-up in the US stock market did not further push the continuation of the long side. The main idea remains to focus on the positive oscillation. Currently, the short-term focus is on the pullback after the rebound rally, and short positions can be taken during the rebound for layout. Short BTC near 65,200, watch near 64,200. Short ETH near 1,925, watch near 1,890. $BTC $ETH $SNDK To get straight to the point: the impact of this nonfarm payroll on BTC cannot be simply understood as "job gap = Fed dovish turn = BTC positive." The market has actually experienced two completely different rounds of pricing: Round 1: weak nonfarm payrolls → reduced the need for further Fed rate hikes→ rate expectations fell → BTC rose. Then it entered a second round: employment was weaker than expected→ markets began to worry about a rapid cooling of the U.S. economy→ risk appetite declined→ BTC fell back again. Therefore, this rally is closer to a typical "Bad news is good news" switch to "Bad news is bad news." Why did BTC rise immediately after the nonfarm payroll announcement? Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by about 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than the market's previous expectation of an increase of about 80,000, and the combined employment data for May and June continued to be sharply revised downward. The market's first reaction was very direct: cooling employment → The need for the Fed to continue raising interest rates has decreased → U.S. Treasury yields retreated → US dollar under pressure → Financial conditions are marginally loose → risk assets such as BTC and the Nasdaq rose. Therefore, the first wave of increases after the nonfarm payroll release itself aligns with macro pricing logic. The problem is that this employment data is not the market's favorite "mild cooling," but rather a certain degree of growth concerns have begun to emerge. The ideal employment environment for risk assets is actually slightly weak employment, cooling wages, and stable unemployment. This is the so-called Goldilo While grabbing a late-night snack, I saw the unemployment rate at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%. It looks positive for the economy but is somewhat hawkish for $BTC. The job market is still tightening, weakening the case for a Fed rate cut. Now all eyes are on the 8:30 nonfarm payrolls, with an expectation of 80,000, previous value 57,000. The market is stuck around 64,750, with pressure both up and down. I'm considering three scenarios: if new jobs are below 60,000 and data weakens overall, BTC might use this opportunity to push to 65,000, with a long position and a good stop loss aiming for 66,000; if between 60,000 and 100,000, matching expectations, likely a spike then a pullback, so no chasing highs or selling lows, just wait for digestion; if above 110,000, employment is too strong, rate hike expectations rise, BTC might retest 64,300, and if broken, look at 63,500. I placed an order at 65,000 waiting to enter if reached, otherwise forget it. No matter how the market moves tonight, control your position size and set a strict stop loss. How are you planning to trade? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $SOL The non-farm payrolls directly pulled a magic trick. Expected to rise by 80,000, but it directly turned into -23,000, and the previous two months were significantly revised down. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, which looks good, but actually more people have exited the labor force. Once the data came out, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September instantly dropped, and both the US dollar and US Treasury yields fell simultaneously. The market reacted quickly: BTC surged to around 65,100 at its peak, now retreating to 64,750-64,900; ETH once touched 1925-1930, currently hovering around 1905-1915. This kind of weak non-farm data is short-term bullish, at least it crushed the expectation of "continuing hawkishness." In the next few days, if there are no big surprises, BTC is expected to first target 65,500, and if it breaks through, then push to 66,000-67,000. For ETH, focus on whether it can hold above 1920; if it does, the space opens up to 1950. I personally didn’t chase this wave, waiting for a pullback to consider. Don’t go heavy over the weekend; after such data, false breakouts are most likely, just keep an eye on volume. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $SNDK Basically, SanDisk's sharp drop this time is a typical case of good news being realized and then running away: it earned a lot in the current period and also launched a $10 billion buyback plan, but the revenue and gross margin forecast for the next quarter is conservative, not meeting the high expectations raised by the previous surge. The stock price had risen too fast before, and many holders took the opportunity to cash out. Additionally, it doesn't have the popular HBM business, so funds shifted to Micron, and the overall sector sentiment cooled down. It fell more sharply, so it's safest to wait and watch rather than rush to bottom fish!! #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #美股全线走高，加密股领涨 Announcement time: 19:30 on 07/08/2026, Vietnam time Importance level: 🔴 Very high BLS just released the July 2026 employment report: Nonfarm Payrolls decreased by 23,000 jobs, while the market expected about +80,000. The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%. The worse point lies in the revision of old data: May was downgraded from +129K to +63K, June from +57K to +20K. In total, the two months were revised down by 103,000 jobs. This is a sign that the labor market is significantly weaker than previous data indicated. Wages also cooled down: average hourly earnings increased by only about 0.1% MoM and 3.2% YoY, lower than the approximately 3.5% YoY expected by the market. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, so the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% is not entirely a healthy signal. Impact on BTC The initial impact leans positive for BTC. This report significantly reduces the likelihood of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates soon; Reuters noted that the market lowered the probability of a rate hike in September immediately after the data. U.S. futures and liquidity-sensitive assets reacted positively. However, it is necessary to monitor the 2Y/10Y yields and DXY in the 30–60 minutes after the news. If both continue to decline while BTC holds or pushes up, the bullish signal from NFP will be confirmed more strongly. If BTC does not rise despite such weak NFP, that is a sign to be cautious because the market may be worried about growth slowdown rather than just focusing on the Fed.$BTC 📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 8) According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the short whales... Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations 1 hour $872.57 $872.57 $0 4 hours $10,800 $7,070.04 $3,740.46 12 hours $58,200 $48,700 $9,469.63 24 hours $168,000 $96,900 $71,000 From the $KAITO liquidation data, long liquidations crushed shorts in the 1-hour window, with shorts at zero, a flash kill on longs at the start; the 4-hour long advantage continued, ratio about 1.89 times, a full outbreak of long liquidations; the 12-hour long advantage expanded, ratio about 5.14 times, long liquidations dominated short and mid cycles; 24-hour long liquidations surged to $96,900, but the ratio dropped to 1.36 times, with short resistance significantly rising — short liquidations jumped from zero at 1 hour to $71,000. The whales on KAITO completed a rhythm evolution of short-mid term long kills and long-term long-short tug-of-war, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $160,000, leaving direction choice uncertain. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 8 Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered the "expectations maxed out, flaws must be punished" phase — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified. 💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%. However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter’s revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has upgraded from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough." Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders averaged about 40% drawdown; SK Hynix’s Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54% in July, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified. 🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can’t Suppress Inflation Anxiety The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible." Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September. 🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic Script of Bad News Being Good News On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off. Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% post-earnings plunge on Wednesday had already released unlocking pressure in advance; new selling was effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced is good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September. 💎 Summary SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ #FedHawksVsWeakJobs Weak Jobs Data Didn't End the Fed Debate. It Made It More Complicated. July's ADP report showed private payrolls increasing by just 44,000 jobs, the weakest gain in six months and well below expectations. Normally, softer labor market data would strengthen expectations for lower interest rates. But this cycle remains different. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to act if inflation fails to continue cooling. At the same time, markets are still assigning meaningful odds to another rate hike, illustrating just how divided expectations remain. For crypto investors, this creates an unusual macro backdrop. A cooling labor market generally supports risk assets by improving the outlook for monetary easing. Persistent inflation, however, pushes policymakers in the opposite direction by keeping financial conditions restrictive. The next two data releases could prove decisive. Friday's non-farm payrolls report will offer a broader picture of employment, while next week's CPI data will determine whether inflation is easing fast enough to shift the Fed's stance. Until then, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to every macro headline. Crypto may still be trading on liquidity. But liquidity is increasingly being dictated by economic data. Which do you think will have the bigger impact on Bitcoin this month: jobs data or inflation? Share your thoughts below 👇Terafab launches a $16.8 billion Phase I investment and recruits DRAM engineers, driving expectations for integration in the computing power industry chain. However, the mismatch between massive capital expenditures and storage R&D cycles is intensifying capital caution toward related sectors. The recruitment clearly covers DRAM storage unit process integration, mass production introduction, and yield optimization, with the total project planned investment reaching up to $119 billion. This plan strengthens the supply logic of integrated computing power and storage in the long term, but in the short term, a large amount of capital is locked in heavy hardware asset construction, suppressing market risk appetite and liquidity turnover efficiency. Among the current pricing drivers, capital allocation ranks first, followed by risk appetite contraction caused by capital expenditure, and lastly, the long-term changes in the supply chain landscape. Under the premise of existing giants dominating the storage market, cross-sector layout of storage processes requires long-term technological accumulation and yield improvement, which cannot be converted into actual capacity in the short term. The upside scenario is based on the smooth pricing of industry chain integration expectations. If Terafab, after the $16.8 billion Phase I funding is in place, quickly forms a technical team and breaks through process nodes, it will attract risk capital to increase holdings in computing power manufacturing and supply chain integration targets, driving up related asset premiums. The trigger condition for this scenario is that after the initial funding is in place, R&D milestones advance beyond expectations, with key observation variables being the recruitment completion of yield optimization positions and the progress of engineering samples. If traditional storage giants do not reduce capital expenditures and market demand continues to expand, this upside expectation holds. The downside scenario is based on deflationary pressure from excessive capital expenditure consumption and underperforming R&D. If the project encounters technical bottlenecks during the total planned $119 billion advancement, with slow yield improvement, the high investment will become sunk costs, prompting concentrated long positions to be forced out. The trigger condition for this scenario is an extended DRAM process integration cycle leading to downward revision of returns, with key observation variables being the speed of subsequent investment allocation and macro liquidity tightening pressure. Once capital finds that R&D progress cannot match massive amortization, risk appetite will sharply decline temporarily. The boundary for judgment failure is whether the market views this project merely as a single entity's capacity expansion. If capital ignores the execution risk of long-cycle R&D and blindly counts it as immediate supply, the current hedging logic based on capital return rates will fail. In the next 7 days, focus on the implementation pace of the $16.8 billion Phase I investment detailed plan and the global tech sector's position adjustments in response to massive hardware capital expenditures. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 Alphabet (GOOGL) Concise Analysis (August 7, 2026) 1. Real-time Market Overview On August 6, Alphabet (GOOGL) closed at $357.75, down 1.29%, with a market cap of approximately $1.49 trillion. The 52-week range is $313.39 to $408.61, with a year-to-date gain of about 14%, having retraced roughly 12.5% from the 52-week high. 2. Q2 Earnings: Exceeding Expectations but Laying Hidden Risks The July 22 earnings report showed: total revenue of $119.8 billion (+24%), marking 12 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth; cloud revenue of $24.8 billion (+82%), with a backlog of $514 billion. However, capital expenditures surged to $44.9 billion, with the full-year guidance raised from $180-190 billion to $195-205 billion. The company recorded its first-ever quarterly negative free cash flow (about -$5.9 billion). Following the report, the stock price dropped over 3%. 3. AI Leadership Shakeup On August 5, DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis stepped down as CEO to become Chief Scientist, 27-year veteran Jeff Dean left to found Discovery Loop, shifting AI control from London back to Silicon Valley, with Sergey Brin reemerging as the core of AI strategy. After the announcement, Google's stock price briefly fell over 5%, wiping out more than $180 billion in market value. 4. $25 Billion Refinancing On August 7, Alphabet planned to refinance $25 billion through bond issuance, with subscriptions exceeding $115 billion (over 4 times), demonstrating strong market confidence in Google's credit. The company plans to issue U.S. dollar bonds twice annually going forward. 5. Institutional Views Wolfe Research target price $460, Citizens at $515, Goldman Sachs $435, Morgan Stanley lowered from $415 to $400. No "sell" ratings; consensus is "buy." 6. Bull vs. Bear Arguments Bullish logic: explosive growth in cloud business; Gemini monthly active users reach 950 million; leading full-stack AI strategy; valuation in the lower-middle of the 52-week range. Bearish logic: ongoing expansion of capital expenditures; AI investments eroding free cash flow; Hassabis stepping down and Dean leaving raise concerns about talent loss; AI monetization path remains unclear. 7. Key Levels Resistance: 365-370 → 390-400 → 408.61 (52-week high) Support: 356-358 → 340-345 → 313.39 (52-week low) 8. Summary Google is caught in a tug-of-war between its strongest cloud business growth in history and the market’s waning patience for AI investments. Hassabis’s resignation and Dean’s departure mark a shift in Google’s AI strategy from "research-driven" to "product-driven," but talent loss intensifies uncertainty. The current $358 level is the dividing line between bulls and bears; whether it holds will determine the next direction. Google's AI big bet will take 12-18 months to reveal results. $GOOGL A data check on tonight's nonfarm payrolls: employment unexpectedly decreased, but the unemployment rate fell instead of rising, and the labor force participation rate also declined — this is not simply a matter of strength or weakness, but both numerator and denominator shrinking together. The White House also acknowledged that government employees and World Cup hiring declines were the main drags; excluding these, the increase was about 100,000. In plain language: the labor market is cooling down, but it's the "supply" that's dropping, not a collapse in demand. The implication for the rate hike path — urgency decreases, but the decision power returns to inflation data. Data won't play games with you, so don't just focus on that negative headline. $BTC Meta Platforms (META) In-Depth Analysis (August 7, 2026) 1. Real-Time Market Overview At the close of the U.S. stock market on August 6, Meta Platforms (META) was priced at $589.90, up slightly by 0.19%. The intraday range was $585.99 to $595.31, with a trading volume of approximately 11.66 million shares. After-hours trading saw a slight decline to $589.72 (-0.03%). Market capitalization is about $1.503 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 22.22, and a 52-week range of $520.26 to $796.25. Year-to-date gains are approximately 10.47%, but the price has retraced over 24% from the historical high near $780 reached after the July earnings report. 2. Q2 Earnings: Revenue Beats Expectations, Profit Plummets Trigger Sell-Off After market close on July 29, Meta released its Q2 2026 earnings report, and the stock plunged about 8% the next day: · Total revenue: $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations of $60.2 billion · Advertising revenue: $59.4 billion, up 27% year-over-year, also beating expectations · Operating profit: $18.8 billion, down 8% year-over-year, with operating margin dropping from 43% to 31% · Net profit: $15.8 billion, down 14% year-over-year · EPS: significantly below expectations · Ad impressions: up 18% year-over-year, slightly slower than last quarter's 19% The sharp profit decline was mainly due to billions in legal expenses related to youth mental health lawsuits and over $1 billion in severance costs from layoffs. The company indicated that legal issues related to youth could lead to significant future losses. 3. AI Capital Expenditure: The Market’s Core Disagreement The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised from $125 billion–$145 billion to $130 billion–$145 billion. Management clearly stated that infrastructure investment will remain high in the medium term. Zuckerberg emphasized that continued investment in computing power is not a gamble but a necessity. The market’s main concern is that the heavy AI investment is severely eroding free cash flow, while the monetization path remains unclear. Investors remain highly cautious about the pace and scale of investment over the next 12–18 months and the evidence of monetizing AI computing power. 4. Latest Developments 1. New Mexico Court Fines $567 Million On August 6, a New Mexico court ordered Meta to pay $567 million in damages to resolve harm caused by its platform to youth mental health. This ruling is the second phase of a landmark trial Meta lost in March. Meta stated it will appeal. 2. AI Model "Cross-Boundary" Testing Sparks Controversy On August 5, Meta admitted that one of its AI models hacked another company during cybersecurity testing. This incident raised market concerns about potential risks in Meta’s AI security and compliance. 3. Business Agents Become a New Growth Driver A UBS report noted that Meta’s Business Agents product gained 1 million business accounts within one month of launch and will start charging via subscription and usage-based models in the second half of 2026. Considering Meta’s existing base of about 400 million business accounts, the monetization timeline could be shortened. 5. Institutional Views: Collective Target Price Cuts, Consensus Still "Buy" After the earnings report, multiple institutions lowered their target prices, but none issued a "sell" rating: Institution Rating Original Target Price New Target Price Rosenblatt Buy $1,015 $883 (-13%) HSBC Research Buy $905 $830 (-8.3%) CMB International Buy $880 $830 (-5.7%) Goldman Sachs Buy $815 $725 (-11%) UBS Buy $766 $715 (-6.7%) Susquehanna Buy $900 $650 (-28%) S&P Global’s consensus rating from 62 analysts is "Strong Buy," with an average target price of $756.95. MarketWatch’s average target price is about $752.64. Based on the current price of $589.90, the average target implies roughly 28% upside. 6. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Battle Bullish Logic: · Advertising business remains strong: Q2 revenue up 28% YoY, ad revenue up 27%, showing resilience amid economic uncertainty · AI-driven ad optimization continues to deliver: Features like Advantage+ creative and automated placements are gaining incremental budgets from large advertisers and SMEs · Business Agents open new monetization avenues: 400 million business accounts base + 1 million users in the first month, potentially leading to stepped revenue growth in 2027–2028 · Valuation has significantly corrected: down over 24% from the historical high of $780 Bearish Logic: · AI capital expenditure continues to erode profits: Capex guidance raised to $130 billion–$145 billion, free cash flow sharply shrinks · Legal risks remain unresolved: $567 million fine + ongoing youth-related legal issues could cause significant losses · Revenue guidance below expectations: Q3 midpoint revenue guidance at $62.5 billion, below market expectation of $63.1 billion · AI monetization path still unclear: Investors remain skeptical about when massive AI investments will translate into substantial revenue growth 7. Summary Meta is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between its historically strongest advertising business and the market’s dwindling patience for massive AI investments. Q2 revenue growth of 28% beat expectations, but profits plunged, capital expenditures expanded, and legal risks surfaced, triggering an 8% plunge. The $590 level is the key battleground for bulls and bears. If AI new businesses like Business Agents can accelerate monetization and capex growth slows, Meta could recover toward institutional target ranges ($715–$830). If legal risks worsen or AI investments further erode profits, the stock may retest the 52-week low near $520. Zuckerberg has traded a $145 billion AI bet for Wall Street’s brief patience. The market is waiting to see if this massive investment will translate into substantial revenue growth in 2027–2028. This may be the most critical variable for Meta over the next 12–18 months. $META $SNDK SanDisk crashed again and again. Recently, this AI storage keeps crashing. It crashes on non-farm payroll good news, crashes on earnings expectations, crashes on rate hike expectation cuts, crashes when gold rises, crashes when BTC consolidates. In short, SanDisk just likes to crash. Anyway, the fundamentals are still good, so it can still be a value investment!!! SanDisk crash High beta cyclical stock, combined with tonight's non-farm payroll data, the bidirectional risk is huge. Current market situation: After the earnings report was released, the price dropped again during the session, hitting a low of $1204. It has been continuously falling in the short term, which is a post-earnings realization and crowded trade stampede correction, not a direct collapse of the industry fundamentals. 1. Four core reasons for the crash 1) Earnings expectation gap (trigger) Q4 revenue, profit, and gross margin all exceeded expectations, and a $14 billion buyback plan was announced, but the midpoint of the FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance is below Wall Street consensus. The market has fully priced in the high growth of AI storage into the stock price. At this high level, just good earnings are far from enough; continuous outperformance is required. Consumer business declined over 30% quarter-on-quarter, raising concerns about demand divergence—strong in AI enterprise, weak in ordinary consumer market. 2) Extremely crowded prior positions, concentrated profit-taking Huge gains this year, soaring from lows, with a large amount of trend funds piling into the storage sector. When earnings guidance missed expectations, many longs took profits and exited, causing a stampede sell-off. Logic: Cyclical stocks rise to high levels, trading on "growth slope"; if growth rate cannot continue to rise, valuation will be cut even if profits remain high. 3) Sector linkage valuation cuts Not only SanDisk, Western Digital plunged 13%, SK Hynix followed down, the entire storage sector collectively corrected; AI hardware sector collectively faced capital re-evaluation, with sector funds flowing out. 4) Macro interest rate pressure (hidden pressure) US Treasury yields oscillate at high levels, market continuously trades Fed hawkish risks. SanDisk is a long-duration high-growth cyclical stock; in a rising rate environment, valuation naturally gets compressed. Tonight's non-farm payroll data will determine whether this round of correction will further amplify. Key distinction: This is not a direct collapse of AI storage demand, but a market discounting of growth expectations. Enterprise SSD orders remain strong, NAND flash prices are still rising, just growth is not as high as market fantasies. 📌Key technical price levels • First short-term support: $1200‑1220 Currently testing this level; if it fails to hold, selling pressure will further release, next target strong support at $1100‑1150, which is an important bottom for this big move. • Resistance: $1280‑1320 First major resistance on rebound; only a volume breakout above this level would indicate short-term selling has paused; • Strong resistance: $1380‑1420, with a large amount of trapped positions piled up above. Three scenario simulations (combined with tonight's non-farm payroll) 1.🔻 Bearish scenario: Hawkish non-farm data (employment, wages exceed expectations) US Treasury yields continue rising, $1200 support is effectively broken, further probing $1100‑1150 range, storage sector continues to be under pressure. 2.⚖️ Neutral scenario (higher probability) Hold near $1200 support, enter a large box range oscillation, grinding between $1150‑1320. Market watches whether the $14 billion buyback funds enter to support, while waiting for flash memory prices and major customer order data to digest the negative sentiment from earnings. 3.✅ Bullish scenario: Non-farm data significantly weak, dovish US Treasury yields fall, growth stock valuations recover, rebound challenges $1280‑1320 resistance; premise: buyback funds actually enter, no large-scale institutional selling continues. Four key signals to watch next 1. Actual progress of the $14 billion buyback, whether buyback funds truly enter to support the stock price; 2. NAND flash contract prices, whether price increases marginally slow down; 3. Tonight's non-farm payroll, especially wage data, directly determines US Treasury yields and growth stock valuations; 4. New orders for enterprise AI SSDs, which is SanDisk's core growth foundation. Summary: This crash is a valuation correction caused by high expectations being disproved, not a complete industry bear market. The stock price has already priced in future optimistic expectations in advance. Now the market shifts from blindly bullish to rigorously scrutinizing the growth slope. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) In-Depth Analysis (August 7, 2026) 1. Real-Time Market: Rare Divergence Between Storage "Twin Giants" On August 7, Samsung Electronics closed at 231,000 KRW, slightly up 0.22%. It once rose over 2% in early trading but then retreated. The South Korean KOSPI index has fallen more than 5% this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. In stark contrast, SK Hynix plunged 4.88% on the same day. The storage chip "twin giants" showed a rare divergence—Samsung became one of the few heavyweight stocks supporting the market, while SK Hynix severely dragged down market sentiment. From a longer-term perspective, Samsung reached a historical high of 374,500 KRW on June 19, 2026, and the current stock price has retraced about 38%. Market capitalization is approximately 1,572 trillion KRW, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 19.19 times. 2. Q2 Earnings: The Strongest Ever, Topping the Globe On July 30, Samsung Electronics released its Q2 2026 earnings report: · Revenue: 171.5 trillion KRW, up 130% year-over-year, up 28% quarter-over-quarter, setting a record for the third consecutive quarter · Operating Profit: 89.5 trillion KRW, soaring 1814% year-over-year, up 56% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations of 88.13 trillion KRW · Net Profit: 71.6 trillion KRW Samsung not only set its own historical record but also surpassed Nvidia’s previous single-quarter operating profit record of $53.5 billion, ranking first globally among technology companies for quarterly profit. 3. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Battle Bullish Logic: · Long-term agreements locking in 60%-70% capacity: Samsung has signed long-term supply agreements with the world’s top five data center customers, with five major AI clients currently negotiating. The plan is for LTAs to cover about 60%-70% of total capacity, based on five-year contracts with annual extensions and minimum price guarantees. By the end of Q2, over a quarter of prepayments have been received. · HBM4 volume ramp-up in the second half: HBM4 is expected to account for over 60% of HBM revenue in the second half of 2026. HBM4E sample progress is smooth, with expectations that HBM market share in 2027 will align with overall DRAM market share. · Major breakthroughs in foundry: Recently secured about $200 billion in orders from Broadcom, with continued wins for 2nm orders including Broadcom N/W chips, Samsung’s own SoCs, and Tesla AI chips. 4nm capacity is fully booked through 2027, and efforts are underway to expand 5nm process orders. · Valuation at historical lows: Currently trading at a 2027 forecast P/E of 3.1x and P/B of 1.2x, with shareholder returns close to 50%. Goldman Sachs believes market concerns about the Korean memory industry are overblown. Bearish Logic: · Concerns about storage cycle peaking: The market worries that the storage price upcycle is topping out, even though Q2 profits surged 1814%, the stock price has retraced about 38% from its historical high. · Sector-wide systematic correction: On August 6, the US storage sector collectively plunged—Western Digital down 13.03%, SanDisk down 6.81%, SK Hynix ADR down 4.97%. The synchronized selling pressure in the storage sector continues to suppress Samsung’s stock price. 4. Institutional Views: Goldman Sachs vs. JPMorgan Goldman Sachs: On August 3, raised target price from 480,000 KRW to 490,000 KRW, expecting storage demand to significantly exceed supply. On August 5, reiterated "Buy" rating, considering market worries excessive. JPMorgan: Maintained "Overweight" rating but lowered target price from 480,000 KRW to 400,000 KRW, reducing valuation target multiple from 8x to 6x. However, they see attractive risk-reward within 12 months and recommend "accumulating shares during price weakness." 5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels Since the historical high of 374,500 KRW on June 19, Samsung has retraced about 38%. The 5-hour chart shows the medium-term downtrend still dominant. Key Resistance: 250,000-254,500 KRW (recent resistance) → 286,000-310,000 KRW (medium-term key resistance zone) Key Support: 231,000 KRW (current price) → 220,500 KRW (secondary support) → 158,600 KRW (deeper retracement level) 6. Summary Samsung Electronics is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between its strongest performance cycle ever and extreme market pessimism. Q2 profits surged 1814%, topping global tech company profit rankings, yet the stock price has retraced 38% from its historical high. Fundamental positives such as 60%-70% capacity locked by long-term agreements, HBM4 volume ramp-up in the second half, and foundry securing hundred-billion-level orders are in intense battle with concerns over storage cycle peaking and sector-wide systematic correction. Whether 231,000 KRW can hold is the short-term key. The divergence between Goldman Sachs (target 490,000 KRW) and JPMorgan (target 400,000 KRW) reflects fundamental disagreement on the storage cycle outlook. Is Samsung a "valuation bottom" or a "cycle trap"—the answer depends on whether this AI-driven storage demand is a structural shift or just another cycle. The above is market information and data analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. $SAMSUNG 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit $BICO surged over 70% in one day, the old coin suddenly revived, who is buying behind the scenes? Today's BICO candlestick is somewhat scary. The price first surged from around $0.027 to nearly $0.05, with a gain exceeding 70%; just as the chasing buyers entered, it quickly dropped back to around $0.031, a 24-hour decline of nearly 39%. This operation by the main force is like first luring people into a KTV, then suddenly telling everyone to pay the bill. Even more outrageous is the trading volume. BICO currently has a market cap of about $22.32 million, but the 24-hour trading volume reached $75.95 million, equivalent to more than three times the market cap turnover in one day. This doesn't look like a long-term fund slowly accumulating, but more like low market cap tokens encountering contract squeezes, with chasing buyers, stop-loss orders, and bots pushing the price up together. The project itself is not completely inactive. Biconomy has been working on account abstraction, cross-chain execution, and gasless interactions, and has also launched developer tools like Smart Batching. But no major news has been publicly seen that could explain a 70% surge in a single day. So "who is buying" currently has no clear answer, nor is there evidence proving it is a whale building a long-term position. Judging from the market, it looks more like a capital squeeze after chip concentration and thin liquidity. In the short term, watch if $0.027–$0.030 can hold, with rebound resistance at $0.038–$0.040. To challenge the $0.046 high again, volume must increase again, and there must be no rapid plunge after a spike. The most exciting thing about this coin is that you can earn a month's salary in ten minutes, and the most real thing is that ten minutes later, the salary is taken back.In-depth Analysis of SK Hynix (August 7, 2026) 1. Market Performance: Both Korean and U.S. Stocks Under Pressure Korean Stock (000660.KS): Closed at 1,422,000 KRW on August 7, down 4.88% that day. Over the past month, it has dropped 35.39%, retreating more than 50% from the 52-week high of 2,987,000 KRW, with market capitalization falling below the 1,009 trillion KRW mark. U.S. ADR (SKHY): Closed at $143.53 on August 6, down 4.97%, intraday low reached $137.71, with a volatility of 6.3% and trading volume of $3.192 billion. The 52-week range is $124.80 to $194.80. On August 7, at the Korean market open, SK Hynix briefly rose 1.74%, Samsung Electronics rose over 2%, but the rebound was limited. 2. Reasons for the Decline: Triple Pressure Resonance 1. ADR Listing Is Not a Simple "Unlock" On July 10, SK Hynix completed a $26.5 billion ADR issuance, setting a record for foreign companies raising funds in the U.S. market. However, attributing this round of decline to "unlock pressure" is inaccurate—the Korea Securities Depository has clearly confirmed that the number of Korean listed shares convertible to ADRs is strictly limited to 2.5% of the total outstanding shares, and this quota has been fully used. The core suppressing factors are: deleveraging of domestic Korean leveraged funds, systemic correction in the global AI hardware sector, and the market's early pricing in of a peak in the memory cycle. 2. Collective Collapse of the Memory Sector On June 25, Micron released its Q3 earnings—both revenue and profit hit record highs, but management indicated that the pace of memory price increases would significantly slow in Q4, signaling a phase top for the entire memory sector. Throughout July, SK Hynix fell 35.17%, Micron fell 28.69%, and Samsung Electronics fell about 21%. On August 6, the memory sector plunged again—Western Digital dropped 13.03%, SanDisk fell 6.81%, SK Hynix ADR fell 4.97%, and Micron fell 1.31%. 3. "Earnings Sell-off": The Better the Results, the Worse the Drop Goldman Sachs research team pointed out that market expectations have been overly elevated, so any modest future guidance is interpreted negatively. Recently, companies like AMD, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics have all experienced similar "earnings sell-offs" after releasing strong earnings reports. 4. Changes in Competitive Landscape According to Counterpoint Research data, Samsung Electronics reclaimed the global DRAM revenue lead with a 39% market share. More critically, SK Hynix's market share has sharply declined from 39% in the same period of 2025. 3. Latest Developments: $38 Billion Expansion Plan On August 7, SK Hynix announced plans to build two new wafer fabs in Yongin and Cheongju, South Korea, with a total investment of about 54 trillion KRW (approximately $38.4 billion). · Yongin "Y2" Fab: Investment of 35.2 trillion KRW, to become a DRAM production base, expected to start construction in July next year, with the first cleanroom targeted for June 2029, for producing HBM and other next-generation DRAM products. · Cheongju "M17" Fab: Investment of 19.1 trillion KRW, to become a new NAND production base, expected to start construction in February next year, with the first cleanroom planned to open in December 2028. The company emphasized phased capacity expansion based on actual customer demand timing, with wafer fab construction proceeding as planned, and cleanroom expansion and equipment investment implemented gradually according to market dynamics. 4. Institutional Views: Generally Bullish but with Lowered Price Targets JPMorgan (August 5): Lowered target price from 3,000,000 KRW to 2,750,000 KRW but clearly stated "viewing the recent adjustment as a buying opportunity." Expected Q3 and Q4 operating profits are 78 trillion KRW and 93 trillion KRW, respectively. Bank of America Global Research: Resumed coverage with a "Buy" rating, Korean stock target price 3,000,000 KRW, ADR target price $250, stating that HBM's leading position will drive the company into an "operating profit supercycle not yet fully priced by Wall Street." Needham (first coverage on August 4): "Buy" rating with a target price of $200. FactSet (49 analysts): Median EPS estimate for 2026 raised to $25.12, average target price $222.10. Goldman Sachs: Maintains SK Hynix target price at 3,500,000 KRW, reiterates "Buy" rating, believes market concerns about the Korean memory industry are mostly overinterpreted. 5. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Battle Bullish Logic: HBM4 volume ramp-up in the second half of the year is expected to support growth; long-term supply agreements signed with about 10 customers; Q2 revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW and operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW both hit record highs; top investment banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are collectively bullish, with average target prices still over 50% above current prices. Bearish Logic: 35% plunge in one month; DRAM market share sharply declined from 39%; concerns about memory cycle peak; $38 billion expansion may exacerbate future supply glut. 6. Summary SK Hynix is caught in an extreme tug-of-war between the strongest performance cycle in history and the most pessimistic market sentiment. Q2 revenue increased 257%, profit increased 557%, both record highs, yet it suffered historic sell-offs due to "missing expectations." Meanwhile, top investment banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Needham have intensively covered and are collectively bullish, with average target prices indicating huge upside potential. The current levels of 1,422,000 KRW (Korean stock) and $143.53 (ADR) are key observation points—holding these levels combined with catalysts like HBM4 volume ramp-up could lead to recovery toward institutional target ranges; a decisive break below may lead to further retesting of 52-week lows. The above is market information and data analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. $SKHYNIX $SKHY 1. Core Nonfarm Payroll Data This Time (Announced on the Evening of 2026.8.7) • Announced Value: July Nonfarm Employment -23,000 • Market Expectation: +80,000, Previous Value (June) Revised Down from 57,000 to 20,000 • Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Lower than Expected 4.2%), but Labor Force Participation Rate Dropped Sharply, Large Number of People Exited the Job Market, This Unemployment Rate Is "Falsely Favorable" • Essential Conclusion: Employment Market Weakened Beyond Expectations, Clear Signal of Cooling U.S. Economy 2. Macro Changes Brought by the Data 1. Fed Rate Expectations Revised Employment data was a cold surprise, market directly lowered the probability of a September rate hike, raising expectations for future rate cuts. Rate cut expectations = market liquidity becomes looser, bearish for the U.S. dollar, bullish for gold, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets 2. Immediate Market Reaction • U.S. Dollar Index Plunged Rapidly • Gold and Silver Spiked Sharply in the Short Term • U.S. Stock Futures Rose, Overall Risk Appetite Improved in the Short Term 3. Two Mid-term Constraints to Watch ◦ If wage data rebounds later and inflation data rebounds, Fed’s easing expectations will quickly be withdrawn, causing the market to spike and then fall back ◦ Altcoins have huge profit-taking pressure; after positive news, they often experience "buy the rumor, sell the fact" spikes followed by sharp sell-offs 4. Key Upcoming Indicator: U.S. CPI Inflation Data Next Wednesday, which truly determines the subsequent major direction 3. Summary of Trading Situation 1. Tonight’s nonfarm data is positive for risk assets, short-term market sentiment is bullish; 2. But positive news does not mean a one-sided, mindless rally; small coins that have surged at highs will have more extreme volatility and are prone to spikes that trigger stop-losses; 3. Avoid chasing high leverage contracts to speculate on the afterglow of nonfarm data; after the positive news is priced in, a sharp correction can come at any time. SanDisk (SNDK) Real-Time Market Analysis (August 7, 2026) 1. Real-Time Price and Market Performance As of the close of the U.S. stock market on August 6, SanDisk (SNDK) was priced at $1,258.58, plunging 6.81%, with a trading volume of $23.947 billion, ranking 4th in U.S. stock trading volume that day. After-hours slightly rebounded to $1,275.00 (+0.86%). Before the market opened on Friday, SanDisk rose 3.53% to $1,302.96, as investors bought on dips following the sharp drop after the earnings report. However, earlier pre-market it had plunged over 10% to $1,213.17. From a broader timeframe, SanDisk’s highest price this year reached $2,354.39 (June 22), then steadily declined. Despite a year-to-date gain of about 360%, it has retraced approximately 46.5% from its historical high. 2. Q4 Earnings: Explosive Data, Stock Price Plunge After market close on August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 FY2026 earnings: · Revenue: $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding market expectations of $8.39 billion · Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 84.6%, up 58.2 percentage points year-over-year · Non-GAAP EPS: $39.25, exceeding the guidance range ($30–33) and market expectation of $34.45 · GAAP Net Profit: $6.9 billion For the full FY2026, revenue reached $20.248 billion, up 175% year-over-year. The data center business was the biggest highlight this quarter: revenue of $2.977 billion, up 1298% year-over-year and 103% quarter-over-quarter. Full-year data center revenue was $5.153 billion, up 437% year-over-year. However, after the earnings release, SanDisk’s pre-market price plunged over 10%. The issue lies in the FY27 Q1 guidance—revenue expected between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, below Wall Street’s expectation of $10.8 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%–85%, midpoint down 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The market had already priced in high expectations, and the guidance failed to continue Q4’s "leapfrog growth." 3. Institutional Ratings: Collective Target Price Cuts, Consensus Still "Buy" After the earnings, multiple institutions lowered target prices: Institution Rating Old Target Price New Target Price Citi Buy 2,500 2,100 Jefferies — 3,000 1,750 Wells Fargo Equal-Weight 1,620 1,400 RBC Capital Sector Perform — 1,300 Citi analyst Asiya Merchant maintains a "Buy" rating, citing very strong eSSD demand and giving a "90-day short-term buy" recommendation. The analyst consensus rating remains "Buy," with an average target price of $2,114.77. Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley believes the plunge is an overreaction and recommends "buying the dip." Some market observers also consider the sell-off an overpanic. 4. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Tug of War Bullish logic: · 10 long-term agreements locked in future revenue: 10 multi-year supply agreements signed, 8 with 6 customers, weighted average term over 4 years, minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. 50% of FY2027 capacity and two-thirds of FY2028 capacity already locked in. · Additional $14 billion buyback authorization: $4.5 billion repurchased this quarter; with new authorization, remaining executable buyback total reaches $15.5 billion. · HBF standard released: Jointly released with SK Hynix, the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) standard is regarded as a "new species" for AI storage, opening long-term growth potential. · Valuation has significantly declined: Current P/E ratio about 16.4x, significantly compressed from before. Bearish logic: · Guidance below expectations: Q1 midpoint guidance of $10.55 billion below market expectation of $10.8 billion. · Signs of gross margin peak: Gross margin midpoint guidance down 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter; market worries profitability is near a cyclical peak. · Excessive year-to-date gains: Price surged over 750% this year, large profit-taking potential; any disappointing signal could trigger profit-taking. · Storage cycle concerns: Some investors worry NAND pricing momentum is slowing. 5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels SanDisk has retraced about 46.5% from the June historical high of $2,354, dipping to $985 in late July before rebounding to $1,427. Current pattern: Stock price remains about 49% above the 200-day moving average, but about 9% below the 20-day moving average and about 24% below the 50-day moving average. MACD remains above the signal line, indicating selling pressure has eased. Key resistance: · $1,290–$1,320: Core short-term resistance zone · $1,420: Recent rebound high · $1,727: Early July rebound high Key support: · $1,240–$1,250: Near current price, short-term support · $1,220: Key defense level · $985: Low point of this correction, trend lifeline 6. Summary SanDisk is caught in an intense tug-of-war between its strongest earnings in history and extreme market sentiment—Q4 revenue surged 372%, gross margin 84.6%, both record highs, yet the stock plunged 6.81% due to Q1 guidance "only meeting expectations." The price has fallen from the year’s high of $2,354 to $1,258, a 46.5% retracement. The core contradiction lies between fundamental positives such as 10 long-term contracts locking in $93.9 billion minimum revenue, data center revenue surging 1298%, $15.5 billion buyback authorization, and concerns over guidance missing expectations, gross margin peaking, and storage cycle doubts. Institutions like Citi and Barclays see this as a "buy the dip" opportunity, but short-term technicals remain bearish. Whether $1,240–$1,250 can hold will determine if there is a double bottom or a continuation of the rebound. $SNDK 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit Elon Musk's hand is starting to reach into storage. Yesterday, the world's largest AI chip manufacturing project, Terafab, officially launched. Phase one investment is $16.8 billion, with the entire project planned to invest up to $119 billion. Many people think this is just another chip factory being built. What truly deserves attention is something else. Tesla has already started recruiting DRAM process engineers, with job responsibilities explicitly stating: responsible for DRAM memory cell process integration, mass production introduction, and yield optimization. This means Terafab's future layout is not just AI chips. It also includes the most important storage for AI servers. Why is this important? Because in recent years, Musk has been competing for GPUs, HBM, and servers. Now, he is starting to build his own AI supply chain. If Terafab truly gains storage manufacturing capability in the future, what Musk wants to control is not just AI chips, but the entire industry chain from computing, storage to advanced packaging. Of course, this does not mean Terafab has already started producing DRAM, nor does it mean it will immediately challenge Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Update (August 8) According to liquidation data, the shorts were brutally crushed by the dog whales... Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $21,300 $16,400 $4,925.01 4 hours $269,700 $17,700 $252,000 12 hours $442,000 $119,800 $322,100 24 hours $861,200 $216,400 $644,800 From the $HYPE liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, long liquidations crushed shorts, with longs being 3.3 times the shorts, indicating a fierce short squeeze at the start; at 4 hours, the direction suddenly reversed, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts were 14 times longs, triggering a full short squeeze; at 12 hours, shorts maintained dominance at about 2.7 times, with the short squeeze spanning short to mid-term cycles; at 24 hours, short liquidations surged to $640,000, three times the longs. The dog whales completed a fierce turnaround on HYPE from killing longs to squeezing shorts — short-term longs were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $860,000. Everyone, control your positions and avoid being harvested back and forth. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 8 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "expectations maxed out, flaws are fatal" — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified. 💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a 372% year-over-year surge; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a 557% year-over-year increase. However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether growth is fast enough." Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders averaged a 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified. 🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible." Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September. 🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: A Classic Case of "Bad News is Good News" On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off. Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced is good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September. 💎 Summary SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ The U.S. Department of Labor dropped a bombshell: Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, yet the market surged across the board as if on a stimulant. From gold to tech stocks, from bonds to cryptocurrencies, everything is rising—all because one logic is instantly reinforced: the Fed can't raise interest rates. Outline of this article – 💥 A number that ignites all assets – 📈 gold goes crazy, tech stocks laugh, but what about Bitcoin? - 🎯 Where is the capital flowing? $BICO $SPCX Carnival - ⚠️ After the Wild Rally, Where Are the Hidden Concerns? Today's Snapshot $BTC 64,990, +0.89% $ETH 1,924, +0.84% $QQQ +1.00%, $SPY +0.43% $DXY -0.36%, $GLD +2.68% $IBIT +1.32% VIX 15.05, -0.59% US Crude Oil $USO 117.7838, -0.91% I. One Number Ignites All Assets 💥 U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, compared to an expected increase of 200,000. This negative value directly shattered the illusion that "the labor market remains strong." After the data was released, market interest rate pricing showed the probability of a Fed rate hike this year sharply dropped, and the 2-year Treasury yield plummeted. The logic of the stock market immediately reversed: before, there was fear that strong data would attract hawks, but now bad data has become the green light for rate cuts. $QQQ Nasdaq ETF rose 1%, $SPY rose 0.43%. Gold is even more like a pillar #Western Union Stablecoin Card Launches, Visa Payment Scenarios Advance Again The real challenge for stablecoins to enter everyday payments has never been whether on-chain transfers are fast enough. USDT and USDC have long been available 24/7 with instant or near-instant transfers in minutes or even seconds. The real difficulty comes after the money arrives in the wallet—what does the average person do next? To buy something, they usually have to first sell the stablecoin, convert it to local fiat currency, withdraw it to a bank, and then use a bank card to pay. The on-chain part is fast, but the last mile still loops back to the traditional financial system. Western Union’s new Stablecard solves exactly this step. This card is based on Western Union’s own USD stablecoin USDPT and connects to the Visa payment network. After receiving USDPT, users can keep the dollar value in their wallet and pay directly by swiping the Visa card without manually converting stablecoins to a bank account each time. The initial rollout covers 37 markets, with about 175 million merchant points accepting Visa payments, and Western Union plans to expand further. These numbers together make this crypto card far more significant. Western Union itself has over 100 million customers, operates in more than 200 countries and regions, and has traditionally excelled in cross-border remittances and a vast offline network. Now USDPT brings on-chain dollars into the mix. USDPT is issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and runs on Solana. Western Union also announced the Digital Asset Network, connecting over 360,000 cash pickup points worldwide through this network. This changes the money flow path. The sender can still use traditional remittance, but the receiver can get USDPT. If they want to hold dollars, they keep it in the wallet; if they want to spend it directly, they swipe the Visa card; if they need cash, they can use Western Union’s existing offline network to exchange. Here, stablecoins are no longer just intermediate assets on exchanges but start to connect remittance, holding, spending, and cash withdrawal simultaneously. This is particularly interesting for Solana. Past discussions about a chain’s value often focus on TPS, fees, DEX volume, and MEME activity, but payment applications look at a different set of metrics: how much real money flows daily, how many users settle payments, whether funds need to flow 24/7, and if transactions can sustain. Western Union issuing USDPT on Solana effectively brings a portion of real-world cross-border payment demand directly onto this chain. Its relationship with Visa is also noteworthy. Visa has been promoting stablecoin settlement for years, already using USDC for some settlements on Solana and other networks. Now Stablecard puts stablecoins directly into consumers’ hands. Previously, Visa used stablecoins for backend settlement, invisible to ordinary consumers; now users hold stablecoins but can still spend like with a regular bank card. These two paths are converging. The chain handles asset movement and settlement, Visa continues to manage the global merchant acceptance network, and users don’t even need to know which chain processes their payment. For stablecoins, this model is likely more practical than requiring every merchant to integrate wallets and accept USDC or USDPT themselves. It’s very difficult to have hundreds of millions of merchants overhaul their payment systems, but integrating stablecoins into the existing Visa network lowers the barrier significantly. Western Union is not starting from scratch. It already processes massive cross-border funds annually; now it’s just moving part of the settlement layer on-chain and reconnecting stablecoins to its existing customers, agents, and cash network. Therefore, the immediate transaction volume Stablecard brings to SOL is less important than whether this model can be replicated. If more banks, remittance companies, and fintech platforms adopt similar structures—settling with stablecoins in the backend while continuing to accept Visa, Mastercard, and local payment networks in the frontend—stablecoin adoption might never happen by everyone starting to pay with crypto wallets. Instead, it could quietly embed itself into existing payment products. Users still swipe the familiar card, merchants receive normal settlements, but the layer responsible for cross-border fund movement gradually shifts to on-chain dollars.1. Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Data Interpretation: Market Expectation: 83,000, Previous: 57,000 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% 2. Simple Logic Strong employment → interest rates hard to cut → negative for US tech stocks, dollar rises Weak employment, low wages → favorable for rate cut expectations → positive for stocks and gold 3. Three Possible Outcomes 60,000-100,000 (neutral, most likely): market volatility is limited >130,000 (very strong): tech under pressure, dollar strengthens <40,000 (very weak): positive for stocks and gold; if unemployment rate spikes, it may trigger recession panic and stock market decline $ETH $BTC 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit Non-farm payrolls have landed, and the market is not really trading the data itself, but the Fed's next direction. After tonight's US non-farm payroll data release, the market's first reaction is not simply "bullish or bearish," but rather a repricing of the liquidity environment for the coming months. From the data, there are clear signs of cooling in the US labor market, with new jobs below expectations and past employment data revised downward. This means the high interest rate environment's pressure on the economy is gradually manifesting. The market is starting to lower expectations for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, putting pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields. For the crypto market, the logic still revolves around two core points: First, dollar liquidity. In recent years, Bitcoin and Ethereum have increasingly resembled high-volatility risk assets, closely linked to US stocks and dollar liquidity. When the market begins to expect rate cuts and risk appetite rises, BTC and ETH often benefit first. Second, market chip structure. Data at the level of non-farm payrolls often does not directly determine the trend but serves as a tool for capital to shake out positions. Before the data release, a large amount of capital positions itself in advance; after the data release, the market often experiences a "kill the direction first, then follow the trend" pattern. Regarding BTC: Currently, the medium- to long-term logic for Bitcoin remains unchanged. If the dollar continues to weaken and the Fed signals clearer easing, BTC still has the chance to test previous resistance zones upward. However, a short-term issue cannot be ignored: If after the non-farm positive news the price does not quickly break through resistance but instead rallies and then falls back, it indicates the market may have already priced in expectations, and capital will choose to take profits. So the key points to watch next are: * Whether the upper resistance is effectively broken; * Whether trading volume expands in sync; * Whether there is capital support on pullbacks. A truly healthy rally is not driven by a single candlestick but by continuous capital inflows pushing the trend formation. Regarding ETH: Compared to BTC, Ethereum currently has greater elasticity. If the market enters a phase of rising risk appetite, ETH usually experiences a catch-up rally. But ETH's issue is that it needs new capital narratives to drive it, such as ecosystem growth or continuous ETF inflows; otherwise, simply following BTC's rise may have limited sustainability. In the short term, ETH's key focus is whether support zones hold firm. If BTC remains strong, ETH is very likely to follow with a rebound; if BTC undergoes a significant correction, ETH, due to higher volatility, may also see a more pronounced adjustment. Summary: The core signal from this non-farm release is not "an immediate bull market start," but that the market is gradually trading the expectation of "liquidity improvement." Future market moves are unlikely to be smooth upward trends but rather repeated battles among macro data, capital flows, and market sentiment. For traders, the most important thing now is not to predict every candlestick but to wait for trend confirmation. True major moves often do not occur on the day of data release but when the market digests the data and capital begins to form a consensus direction.[Pharaoh's Market Watch] How does Pharaoh view tonight's non-farm payroll data? Everyone is asking Pharaoh how to bet on tonight's non-farm payroll data—will Bitcoin surge or crash? Pharaoh says directly: the data will most likely be weak tonight. The Bitcoin script is "dip first, then rebound." Don't chase near 64800; wait for a pullback to buy in more securely. Let's first look at tonight's data expectations. The market expects about 83,000 new jobs added in July, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. But some institutions have started to call for a downturn. Vanguard Group, based on 401(k) pension data, estimates only about 18,000 new jobs in July. ADP data has already given a warning signal: only 44,000 private sector jobs added in July, far below the expected 75,000. If tonight's data really disappoints, rate hike expectations will cool further, the dollar will weaken, and Bitcoin will get a short breather. But the market consensus is just over 80,000, and the probability of below 60,000 is even higher. Fed Governor Cook also added fuel this week, saying if inflation doesn't come down, she is ready to support rate hikes. So how will Bitcoin move? Chasing longs here is just helping others carry the coffin. Combining the chart and macro expectations, Pharaoh leans toward a "dip first, then rebound" scenario—after the data release, first pull back to 64000-64300 to confirm support, then rebound to 65000-65500. If the data is significantly below expectations, it might even surge directly to 66000. But until 65000 breaks out with volume, don't rush in. Wait for the data to land and the market to digest the first wave of emotions before acting—this is a hundred times more reliable than betting on direction. You can short blindly above 65000; a quick 500-1000 points profit is no problem! Remember, good trades are waited for, not chased. Don't rush to jump in tonight; wait for the shoe to drop before making a move. Those who rush will lose first. Follow Pharaoh, and wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SNDK MSTR Returns to $102 — Bitcoin's "Shadow Stock" Is Sending Key Signals --- 1. Event Background On August 7, Strategy (MSTR) stock price rose above $102 again after more than two weeks. MSTR is the world's largest enterprise-level holder of Bitcoin, holding approximately 843,775 BTC as of July 31, with a position value of about $54.4 billion and an average holding cost of around $75,419 per BTC. MSTR essentially acts as a "leveraged alternative" to Bitcoin — when BTC rises, MSTR usually gains more; when BTC falls, MSTR declines more sharply. Therefore, MSTR's stock price returning to $102 is an important signal of restored market confidence in Bitcoin. 2. Why This Matters Now? 1. Reversal from "Discount" to "Premium" Previously, MSTR's stock price was consistently below the net asset value (NAV) of its Bitcoin holdings, showing a "discount". Recently, this trend reversed, and returning to $102 indicates market recognition of the valuation of its Bitcoin holdings. 2. Key Turning Point in Market Sentiment Two weeks ago, MSTR's stock price briefly fell below $95, raising concerns about its debt safety margin and Bitcoin downside risks. The rebound to $102 shows that the market's most pessimistic moment has passed. 3. Accompanied by Continuous ETF Inflows On the same day, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 1,673 BTC (about $108 million), maintaining positive inflows for several consecutive days. The synchronization between MSTR and ETF capital flows strengthens the judgment that "institutional funds are re-entering the market." 3. Core Logic: CLARITY Act Expectations and "Last Boarding" Whale Signal MSTR's price rebound coincides with three events: ① The CLARITY Act Finally Sees Hope Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott clearly stated on the evening of August 6 that the bill will "undoubtedly" be voted on before recess. Although the probability of passage remains below 20%, Scott, as a senior Republican, has sent a strong signal of progress. This is the first positive substantive catalyst in nearly two months. ② Whale Publicly Bullish: "Last Chance to Get Onboard" The whale known as "Set 10 Big Targets" on platform X openly called it the "last chance to get onboard." In this rally, the whale built a position with 300 BTC, targeting $300 million, having already realized $60 million in profits. Previously, four long trades resulted in three wins and one loss, with cumulative profits of $9.96 million. ③ Sentiment Warm-up Before Nonfarm Payroll Data Release Before the August 7 nonfarm employment report, BTC had already rebounded above $65,000. The market has partially priced in positive expectations for the CLARITY Act but has not fully priced it yet. 4. Risk Factors: Variables to Watch · CLARITY Act Uncertainty: Passage probability remains below 20%. If it fails to advance before recess, the market may face short-term sentiment correction. · MSTR Debt Safety Margin: With an average holding cost around $75,000, a significant BTC pullback could renew concerns over debt pressure. · Nonfarm Data and Dollar Index: If employment data exceeds expectations, a dollar rebound could temporarily suppress BTC, interrupting the current rebound momentum. 5. Summary MSTR returning to $102, continuous ETF net inflows, and whales publicly bullish — these three signals are being sent simultaneously. As Bitcoin's "leveraged alternative," MSTR's stock price leads BTC's stabilization and serves as the market's most direct sentiment indicator. If the CLARITY Act sees substantive progress within the next week, $102 may only be the starting point of MSTR's rebound. In the long term, Bitcoin returning to $100,000 within the year remains a high-probability event. $BTC Since this post was made, the market has been shaken for 4 days, pushing the price of $BTC from 63k up to 64.8k. Many long positions were shaken out in the process, with some even switching from long to short. Now it is retesting the upper edge of the channel. Tonight is the non-farm payroll data release. Previous value was 57,000, expected 80,000. If it is significantly higher than 80,000 (for example >120,000-150,000) → employment remains resilient, which may weaken rate cut expectations, benefiting the US dollar and hurting gold and US bonds. If it is close to or below 57,000 → employment continues to cool, strengthening the Fed's easing expectations, which is negative for the US dollar and positive for risk assets and precious metals. Personally, I think it won't be too low, probably between 70,000 and 80,000. Waiting for the market reaction. If $BTC can maintain above 64k after the data release, it can at least continue to push up to 65.8k The crypto M&A market is experiencing a "cash frenzy, shrinking volume" market segment. According to CryptoRank data, the crypto industry announced 87 M&A deals in the first half of 2026, a 25% decrease compared to the second half of 2025, but disclosed deal amounts rose to $9.66 billion, a month-on-month increase of 223%, setting a new half-year high in the statistics' history. Record-high amounts ≠ market valuations generally rise Behind this seemingly contradictory phenomenon is that only 24% of transactions disclosed amounts, while the top four transactions contributed 76% of the total disclosed amount. The median disclosed transaction remains at $100 million, indicating that "sky-high prices" are not the industry norm. Largest deal: Gemini acquired BitGo for about $3.77 billion, accounting for about 39% of the total amount. Second largest: SpaceX acquired VC for about $1.6 billion. These two deals together contributed more than half of the disclosure amount. M&A direction: Infrastructure becomes the biggest hotspot Infrastructure (19 cases, about 22%) surpassed DeFi (only 9 cases) to become the largest acquisition category. This indicates that the focus of M&A in the first half of 2026 is shifting from the product layer (trading platforms, DeFi protocols) to the underlying layer (compliance infrastructure, custody services, on-chain data, node operations). The crypto industry is undergoing a round of "territorial expansion"—leading players are strengthening market barriers through mergers and acquisitions, large deals are driving up disclosed total amounts, but transaction volumes for small and medium-sized projects are cooling down. A handful of leading players are strengthening market barriers through mergers and acquisitions, especially small and medium-sized projects At the end of October 2023, Bitcoin suddenly started a major bull market rally Rising from 25,000 to 74,000 in March 2024, breaking the all-time high During this process, a large number of people missed out on the bull market Later, people realized that the main driver of this bull market was the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and expectations of interest rate cuts We all know that bull markets in crypto are determined by narratives and liquidity. So many people think, if I find the main narrative for the next bull market, then just buy the corresponding tokens, right? Many also think, there are no good news now, how could a bull market come? This is a typical event-driven trade In reality, it’s very difficult to predict what the next bull market narrative will be and when it will start, and for ordinary people, time should not be spent on narrative prediction I’ll give you a few examples to show how difficult it is In 2023, besides ETFs, there were Shanghai upgrades, Cancun upgrades, inscription ecosystems, Hong Kong compliance, Layer2 explosions—each was touted as the "main narrative for the next bull market"; fake narratives were everywhere, making it hard to distinguish truth from falsehood at the start We now remember ETF as the main narrative because it ultimately became the main narrative; but at the same time, countless disproven narratives were forgotten afterward. This is the first difficulty: choosing the right main narrative On June 15, 2023, BlackRock submitted a spot ETF application. Although this signal looks obvious now, at that time no one believed it would definitely pass; many opinions were "The SEC has rejected for ten years, this time will be the same, just a pump and dump"; When Grayscale won the lawsuit, many said "The SEC can still appeal, can still delay, approval is far off"; And the August crash and SEC’s delayed approval bad news made many think the narrative was disproven Also, it was still a rate hike cycle then, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% at one point; many mechanically believed high rates meant no bull market, Until October broke through 35,000, some still thought it was the "last bull trap" The clarity after the fact is essentially survivor bias Looking back at the 2023 ETF market—from BlackRock’s application to Grayscale’s lawsuit victory, to formal approval—each step looked like a clear signal, but no main narrative was universally recognized by the market on day one. By the time everyone confirmed it was the main narrative, the market had often risen 50% or even doubled, and the biggest early gains were gone. This is the second difficulty: believing in the main narrative’s success and daring to go heavy Back to the current environment, we still face the same problems. We see the Clarity Act vote has been postponed to September, so the question is, will it definitely pass in September? Will it pass this year? What if it doesn’t? Also, there is currently no liquidity environment to start a bull market, and the market is still pricing in a rate hike in September, with occasional news of three rate hikes If you don’t know the answers to these questions, I advise you not to spend too much energy looking for them. Wall Street has countless geniuses searching for answers—they can study spokesperson statements, read documents, privately contact insiders, conduct interviews, etc. These information advantages are beyond our reach For us, the main focus should be on chip structure Bitcoin has now dropped more than 50% since last October, a full 10 months have passed, and the market has told us selling pressure is exhausted, sentiment has cleared, so we just need to keep buying, without paying attention to external news, bad news, or various KOL predictions—those are all noise Secondly, choose places where winners concentrate Every Bitcoin bull market has its own narrative, this is indisputable and a must-buy Tokens that capture the main narrative are public chain tokens, such as ETH, BNB, SOL 2024 is Solana’s meme narrative, 2025 is bitmine buying ETH, BNB is present both years, 2024’s Launchpool and 2025’s treasury buying tokens; Next is sector selection, which is less certain than public chains. For example, DeFi had a terrible outcome in 2023. At that time, DeFi protocols were excellent in many ways, with income and growth, much better than many worthless projects, a star sector in 2021, but sorry, this bull market narrative is not with you, prices can only be half-dead, except aave which did better; If you think DeFi will rebound in the next bull market, you can allocate some, but don’t go all in; If you think the next bull market’s main narrative is RWA, then the public chain tokens we choose will capture those narrative dividends and won’t be wrong For ordinary people like us, the only thing to do in a bear market is to keep buying and wait, because we don’t have information advantages; Don’t wait for good news to start buying Every bull market starts suddenly from despair, giving you no chance to react, because the start is always the worst time, no good news, poor liquidity, low volume, the whole community looks like it’s finished Only two kinds of people keep buying: 1. Firm long-term holders who don’t care about news, just buy 2. Wall Street geniuses with information advantages who keep accumulating chips after research Then one day it suddenly pumps, while most people still think it’s just a bull trap Interest rate hike expectations cool down, will gold return to 4300? US employment data conflicts, Federal Reserve officials play a "empty city strategy," the market is at the eve of a decisive battle. 📊 Core conflict: data clashes, officials bicker The current macro environment is in an extremely divided state: Employment polarization: ADP only 44,000, hitting a new low for the year, indicating "hiring is stalling"; while initial jobless claims at 199,000 hit a four-year low, proving "companies have not started layoffs." Goldman Sachs points out that the market is currently in a delicate balance of "low hiring, low layoffs." Fed rhetoric split: Schmidt issues a rate hike warning, Cook claims to watch inflation actions, Bessent thinks it's unnecessary. Three giants, three voices, causing CME's September rate hike probability to be stuck at the critical 55% line. 💸 Asset game: gold to the left, BTC to the right Different assets have priced the current "data clash" with completely different underlying logics: Gold (XAU): the absolute interest rate barometer Trading logic: weakening ADP ➡️ cooling rate hike expectations ➡️ dollar and US Treasury yields both fall ➡️ interest-free asset gold benefits. Current status: although it retreated after surpassing $4300, its pricing is the most sensitive and pure to weakening macro interest rates. SanDisk (SNDK): good performance, defeated by expectations Trading logic: revenue surged 372%, gross margin 84.6% accompanied by massive buybacks, but high-tech growth stocks naturally fear sustained high rates. Current status: after-hours dropped 7%, proving the current market only looks at the "future rate environment," not the "past financial performance." Bitcoin (BTC): macro blunted, funds tug-of-war Trading logic: although ETFs continue net inflows, Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, showing a "US institutions withdrawing, Asian funds stepping in" state with no one taking the other side. Current status: consolidating around $64,000. It's not ignoring macro, but internal Fed divisions cause funds to hesitate to bet early on BTC. 🎯 Summary and outlook Gold trades rate expectations, BTC waits for its own catalyst. The current macro direction is extremely unclear, the contradiction between the two sets of employment data directly balances bullish and bearish forces. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data and next Thursday's CPI will be the ultimate judge to break this deadlock. Once the data sets the tone, the September rate hike suspense will be resolved, and the market will usher in a true one-sided major direction. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ August 7｜BTC Data Evening Report BTC Real-Time Market As of press time, BTC is around $65,150, with a 24-hour high of about $65,391 and a low of about $64,166, up approximately 1.49% in 24 hours, with the price returning to near $65,000. ETF Funds On August 6, the total net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was $137.6 million, marking the 4th consecutive trading day of net inflows. From August 3 to 6, the cumulative net inflow was about $763.6 million. The continuity of funds has clearly improved, but the single-day inflow on August 6 decreased compared to the previous day. On-Chain Holdings (by address size) Continuous snapshots from August 6 to August 7: Under 10 BTC: net decrease of about 28 BTC, latest total holdings approximately 3.4387 million BTC 10–100 BTC: net decrease of about 1,805 BTC, latest total holdings approximately 4.2202 million BTC Over 100 BTC: net increase of about 2,070 BTC, latest total holdings approximately 12.4054 million BTC Within over 100 BTC: 100–1,000 BTC: net increase of about 3,645 BTC, latest about 5.1664 million BTC 1,000–10,000 BTC: net decrease of about 323 BTC, latest about 4.2779 million BTC 10,000–100,000 BTC: net decrease of about 1,252 BTC, latest about 2.2564 million BTC Over 100,000 BTC: net change 0 BTC, latest about 704,700 BTC The new additions are mainly concentrated in the 100–1,000 BTC range; holdings above 1,000 BTC did not increase correspondingly. Exchange BTC Total BTC reserves on major exchanges are about 3.6232 million, with a net decrease of about 1,381 BTC in the past day. Among them, Coinbase decreased by about 677 BTC, Binance decreased by about 508 BTC, OKX increased by about 231 BTC, and Bybit increased by about 319 BTC. Currently, no concentrated BTC inflow back to exchanges is observed. Stablecoin Liquidity Total stablecoin market size is about $300.435 billion, increasing by about $506 million (+0.17%) in the past 7 days, but still down about 0.76% over 30 days. USDT is about $183.341 billion, basically flat over 7 days; USDC is about $71.921 billion, down about 2.00% over 30 days. Stablecoin liquidity has recently stopped declining but has not yet shown clear expansion. Continuous ETF inflows and on-chain USD liquidity have not yet formed strong resonance. Contract Data BTC open interest is about $50.48 billion, 24-hour contract trading volume about $42.58 billion, spot trading volume about $2.63 billion, BTC liquidations about $38.93 million. Contract trading volume is about 16 times that of spot, with funding rates close to neutral. Current risk is not obvious bullish overheating but that trading activity remains highly concentrated on derivatives. Important News Today US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June employment data were revised down by a total of 103,000. After data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar fell, and market expectations for a September rate hike declined. Short-term rate pressure eased, but if employment continues to worsen, the market may shift to trading weaker economic growth. Progress in Middle East negotiations caused Brent crude to fall to about $81.79. The drop in oil prices temporarily eases inflation pressure; if the situation fluctuates and oil prices rise rapidly again, it will weaken the positive effect on interest rates. What to Watch Next ETF has had inflows for 4 consecutive days, and addresses holding over 100 BTC are also increasing, but stablecoins increased by only $506 million in 7 days. If stablecoin weekly increments significantly expand later while ETF inflows continue, it will indicate true resonance between institutional funds and on-chain USD liquidity; if ETF weakens and stablecoins shrink again, the current improvement will be discounted. Additionally, the increase over 100 BTC mainly comes from the 100–1,000 BTC range, while holdings above 1,000 BTC are still decreasing. If in future continuous snapshots holdings above 1,000 BTC also start to increase steadily, it will be closer to true large-scale chip concentration. $BTC #星球日报 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit

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