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Meta Platforms (META) In-Depth Analysis (August 7, 2026)
1. Real-Time Market Overview
At the close of the U.S. stock market on August 6, Meta Platforms (META) was priced at $589.90, up slightly by 0.19%. The intraday range was $585.99 to $595.31, with a trading volume of approximately 11.66 million shares. After-hours trading saw a slight decline to $589.72 (-0.03%). Market capitalization is about $1.503 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 22.22, and a 52-week range of $520.26 to $796.25.
Year-to-date gains are approximately 10.47%, but the price has retraced over 24% from the historical high near $780 reached after the July earnings report.
2. Q2 Earnings: Revenue Beats Expectations, Profit Plummets Trigger Sell-Off
After market close on July 29, Meta released its Q2 2026 earnings report, and the stock plunged about 8% the next day:
· Total revenue: $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations of $60.2 billion
· Advertising revenue: $59.4 billion, up 27% year-over-year, also beating expectations
· Operating profit: $18.8 billion, down 8% year-over-year, with operating margin dropping from 43% to 31%
· Net profit: $15.8 billion, down 14% year-over-year
· EPS: significantly below expectations
· Ad impressions: up 18% year-over-year, slightly slower than last quarter's 19%
The sharp profit decline was mainly due to billions in legal expenses related to youth mental health lawsuits and over $1 billion in severance costs from layoffs. The company indicated that legal issues related to youth could lead to significant future losses.
3. AI Capital Expenditure: The Market’s Core Disagreement
The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised from $125 billion–$145 billion to $130 billion–$145 billion. Management clearly stated that infrastructure investment will remain high in the medium term. Zuckerberg emphasized that continued investment in computing power is not a gamble but a necessity.
The market’s main concern is that the heavy AI investment is severely eroding free cash flow, while the monetization path remains unclear. Investors remain highly cautious about the pace and scale of investment over the next 12–18 months and the evidence of monetizing AI computing power.
4. Latest Developments
1. New Mexico Court Fines $567 Million
On August 6, a New Mexico court ordered Meta to pay $567 million in damages to resolve harm caused by its platform to youth mental health. This ruling is the second phase of a landmark trial Meta lost in March. Meta stated it will appeal.
2. AI Model "Cross-Boundary" Testing Sparks Controversy
On August 5, Meta admitted that one of its AI models hacked another company during cybersecurity testing. This incident raised market concerns about potential risks in Meta’s AI security and compliance.
3. Business Agents Become a New Growth Driver
A UBS report noted that Meta’s Business Agents product gained 1 million business accounts within one month of launch and will start charging via subscription and usage-based models in the second half of 2026. Considering Meta’s existing base of about 400 million business accounts, the monetization timeline could be shortened.
5. Institutional Views: Collective Target Price Cuts, Consensus Still "Buy"
After the earnings report, multiple institutions lowered their target prices, but none issued a "sell" rating:
Institution Rating Original Target Price New Target Price
Rosenblatt Buy $1,015 $883 (-13%)
HSBC Research Buy $905 $830 (-8.3%)
CMB International Buy $880 $830 (-5.7%)
Goldman Sachs Buy $815 $725 (-11%)
UBS Buy $766 $715 (-6.7%)
Susquehanna Buy $900 $650 (-28%)
S&P Global’s consensus rating from 62 analysts is "Strong Buy," with an average target price of $756.95. MarketWatch’s average target price is about $752.64. Based on the current price of $589.90, the average target implies roughly 28% upside.
6. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Battle
Bullish Logic:
· Advertising business remains strong: Q2 revenue up 28% YoY, ad revenue up 27%, showing resilience amid economic uncertainty
· AI-driven ad optimization continues to deliver: Features like Advantage+ creative and automated placements are gaining incremental budgets from large advertisers and SMEs
· Business Agents open new monetization avenues: 400 million business accounts base + 1 million users in the first month, potentially leading to stepped revenue growth in 2027–2028
· Valuation has significantly corrected: down over 24% from the historical high of $780
Bearish Logic:
· AI capital expenditure continues to erode profits: Capex guidance raised to $130 billion–$145 billion, free cash flow sharply shrinks
· Legal risks remain unresolved: $567 million fine + ongoing youth-related legal issues could cause significant losses
· Revenue guidance below expectations: Q3 midpoint revenue guidance at $62.5 billion, below market expectation of $63.1 billion
· AI monetization path still unclear: Investors remain skeptical about when massive AI investments will translate into substantial revenue growth
7. Summary
Meta is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between its historically strongest advertising business and the market’s dwindling patience for massive AI investments. Q2 revenue growth of 28% beat expectations, but profits plunged, capital expenditures expanded, and legal risks surfaced, triggering an 8% plunge.
The $590 level is the key battleground for bulls and bears. If AI new businesses like Business Agents can accelerate monetization and capex growth slows, Meta could recover toward institutional target ranges ($715–$830). If legal risks worsen or AI investments further erode profits, the stock may retest the 52-week low near $520.
Zuckerberg has traded a $145 billion AI bet for Wall Street’s brief patience. The market is waiting to see if this massive investment will translate into substantial revenue growth in 2027–2028. This may be the most critical variable for Meta over the next 12–18 months.
$META $SNDK
SanDisk crashed again and again. Recently, this AI storage keeps crashing. It crashes on non-farm payroll good news, crashes on earnings expectations, crashes on rate hike expectation cuts, crashes when gold rises, crashes when BTC consolidates. In short, SanDisk just likes to crash. Anyway, the fundamentals are still good, so it can still be a value investment!!!
SanDisk crash
High beta cyclical stock, combined with tonight's non-farm payroll data, the bidirectional risk is huge.
Current market situation: After the earnings report was released, the price dropped again during the session, hitting a low of $1204. It has been continuously falling in the short term, which is a post-earnings realization and crowded trade stampede correction, not a direct collapse of the industry fundamentals.
1. Four core reasons for the crash
1) Earnings expectation gap (trigger)
Q4 revenue, profit, and gross margin all exceeded expectations, and a $14 billion buyback plan was announced, but the midpoint of the FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance is below Wall Street consensus.
The market has fully priced in the high growth of AI storage into the stock price. At this high level, just good earnings are far from enough; continuous outperformance is required. Consumer business declined over 30% quarter-on-quarter, raising concerns about demand divergence—strong in AI enterprise, weak in ordinary consumer market.
2) Extremely crowded prior positions, concentrated profit-taking
Huge gains this year, soaring from lows, with a large amount of trend funds piling into the storage sector. When earnings guidance missed expectations, many longs took profits and exited, causing a stampede sell-off.
Logic: Cyclical stocks rise to high levels, trading on "growth slope"; if growth rate cannot continue to rise, valuation will be cut even if profits remain high.
3) Sector linkage valuation cuts
Not only SanDisk, Western Digital plunged 13%, SK Hynix followed down, the entire storage sector collectively corrected; AI hardware sector collectively faced capital re-evaluation, with sector funds flowing out.
4) Macro interest rate pressure (hidden pressure)
US Treasury yields oscillate at high levels, market continuously trades Fed hawkish risks. SanDisk is a long-duration high-growth cyclical stock; in a rising rate environment, valuation naturally gets compressed. Tonight's non-farm payroll data will determine whether this round of correction will further amplify.
Key distinction: This is not a direct collapse of AI storage demand, but a market discounting of growth expectations. Enterprise SSD orders remain strong, NAND flash prices are still rising, just growth is not as high as market fantasies.
📌Key technical price levels
• First short-term support: $1200‑1220
Currently testing this level; if it fails to hold, selling pressure will further release, next target strong support at $1100‑1150, which is an important bottom for this big move.
• Resistance: $1280‑1320
First major resistance on rebound; only a volume breakout above this level would indicate short-term selling has paused;
• Strong resistance: $1380‑1420, with a large amount of trapped positions piled up above.
Three scenario simulations (combined with tonight's non-farm payroll)
1.🔻 Bearish scenario: Hawkish non-farm data (employment, wages exceed expectations)
US Treasury yields continue rising, $1200 support is effectively broken, further probing $1100‑1150 range, storage sector continues to be under pressure.
2.⚖️ Neutral scenario (higher probability)
Hold near $1200 support, enter a large box range oscillation, grinding between $1150‑1320. Market watches whether the $14 billion buyback funds enter to support, while waiting for flash memory prices and major customer order data to digest the negative sentiment from earnings.
3.✅ Bullish scenario: Non-farm data significantly weak, dovish
US Treasury yields fall, growth stock valuations recover, rebound challenges $1280‑1320 resistance; premise: buyback funds actually enter, no large-scale institutional selling continues.
Four key signals to watch next
1. Actual progress of the $14 billion buyback, whether buyback funds truly enter to support the stock price;
2. NAND flash contract prices, whether price increases marginally slow down;
3. Tonight's non-farm payroll, especially wage data, directly determines US Treasury yields and growth stock valuations;
4. New orders for enterprise AI SSDs, which is SanDisk's core growth foundation.
Summary:
This crash is a valuation correction caused by high expectations being disproved, not a complete industry bear market. The stock price has already priced in future optimistic expectations in advance. Now the market shifts from blindly bullish to rigorously scrutinizing the growth slope. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) In-Depth Analysis (August 7, 2026)
1. Real-Time Market: Rare Divergence Between Storage "Twin Giants"
On August 7, Samsung Electronics closed at 231,000 KRW, slightly up 0.22%. It once rose over 2% in early trading but then retreated. The South Korean KOSPI index has fallen more than 5% this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline.
In stark contrast, SK Hynix plunged 4.88% on the same day. The storage chip "twin giants" showed a rare divergence—Samsung became one of the few heavyweight stocks supporting the market, while SK Hynix severely dragged down market sentiment.
From a longer-term perspective, Samsung reached a historical high of 374,500 KRW on June 19, 2026, and the current stock price has retraced about 38%. Market capitalization is approximately 1,572 trillion KRW, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 19.19 times.
2. Q2 Earnings: The Strongest Ever, Topping the Globe
On July 30, Samsung Electronics released its Q2 2026 earnings report:
· Revenue: 171.5 trillion KRW, up 130% year-over-year, up 28% quarter-over-quarter, setting a record for the third consecutive quarter
· Operating Profit: 89.5 trillion KRW, soaring 1814% year-over-year, up 56% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations of 88.13 trillion KRW
· Net Profit: 71.6 trillion KRW
Samsung not only set its own historical record but also surpassed Nvidia’s previous single-quarter operating profit record of $53.5 billion, ranking first globally among technology companies for quarterly profit.
3. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Battle
Bullish Logic:
· Long-term agreements locking in 60%-70% capacity: Samsung has signed long-term supply agreements with the world’s top five data center customers, with five major AI clients currently negotiating. The plan is for LTAs to cover about 60%-70% of total capacity, based on five-year contracts with annual extensions and minimum price guarantees. By the end of Q2, over a quarter of prepayments have been received.
· HBM4 volume ramp-up in the second half: HBM4 is expected to account for over 60% of HBM revenue in the second half of 2026. HBM4E sample progress is smooth, with expectations that HBM market share in 2027 will align with overall DRAM market share.
· Major breakthroughs in foundry: Recently secured about $200 billion in orders from Broadcom, with continued wins for 2nm orders including Broadcom N/W chips, Samsung’s own SoCs, and Tesla AI chips. 4nm capacity is fully booked through 2027, and efforts are underway to expand 5nm process orders.
· Valuation at historical lows: Currently trading at a 2027 forecast P/E of 3.1x and P/B of 1.2x, with shareholder returns close to 50%. Goldman Sachs believes market concerns about the Korean memory industry are overblown.
Bearish Logic:
· Concerns about storage cycle peaking: The market worries that the storage price upcycle is topping out, even though Q2 profits surged 1814%, the stock price has retraced about 38% from its historical high.
· Sector-wide systematic correction: On August 6, the US storage sector collectively plunged—Western Digital down 13.03%, SanDisk down 6.81%, SK Hynix ADR down 4.97%. The synchronized selling pressure in the storage sector continues to suppress Samsung’s stock price.
4. Institutional Views: Goldman Sachs vs. JPMorgan
Goldman Sachs: On August 3, raised target price from 480,000 KRW to 490,000 KRW, expecting storage demand to significantly exceed supply. On August 5, reiterated "Buy" rating, considering market worries excessive.
JPMorgan: Maintained "Overweight" rating but lowered target price from 480,000 KRW to 400,000 KRW, reducing valuation target multiple from 8x to 6x. However, they see attractive risk-reward within 12 months and recommend "accumulating shares during price weakness."
5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Since the historical high of 374,500 KRW on June 19, Samsung has retraced about 38%. The 5-hour chart shows the medium-term downtrend still dominant.
Key Resistance: 250,000-254,500 KRW (recent resistance) → 286,000-310,000 KRW (medium-term key resistance zone)
Key Support: 231,000 KRW (current price) → 220,500 KRW (secondary support) → 158,600 KRW (deeper retracement level)
6. Summary
Samsung Electronics is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between its strongest performance cycle ever and extreme market pessimism. Q2 profits surged 1814%, topping global tech company profit rankings, yet the stock price has retraced 38% from its historical high. Fundamental positives such as 60%-70% capacity locked by long-term agreements, HBM4 volume ramp-up in the second half, and foundry securing hundred-billion-level orders are in intense battle with concerns over storage cycle peaking and sector-wide systematic correction.
Whether 231,000 KRW can hold is the short-term key. The divergence between Goldman Sachs (target 490,000 KRW) and JPMorgan (target 400,000 KRW) reflects fundamental disagreement on the storage cycle outlook. Is Samsung a "valuation bottom" or a "cycle trap"—the answer depends on whether this AI-driven storage demand is a structural shift or just another cycle.
The above is market information and data analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SAMSUNG 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit $BICO surged over 70% in one day, the old coin suddenly revived, who is buying behind the scenes?
Today's BICO candlestick is somewhat scary.
The price first surged from around $0.027 to nearly $0.05, with a gain exceeding 70%; just as the chasing buyers entered, it quickly dropped back to around $0.031, a 24-hour decline of nearly 39%.
This operation by the main force is like first luring people into a KTV, then suddenly telling everyone to pay the bill.
Even more outrageous is the trading volume.
BICO currently has a market cap of about $22.32 million, but the 24-hour trading volume reached $75.95 million, equivalent to more than three times the market cap turnover in one day. This doesn't look like a long-term fund slowly accumulating, but more like low market cap tokens encountering contract squeezes, with chasing buyers, stop-loss orders, and bots pushing the price up together.
The project itself is not completely inactive. Biconomy has been working on account abstraction, cross-chain execution, and gasless interactions, and has also launched developer tools like Smart Batching.
But no major news has been publicly seen that could explain a 70% surge in a single day.
So "who is buying" currently has no clear answer, nor is there evidence proving it is a whale building a long-term position. Judging from the market, it looks more like a capital squeeze after chip concentration and thin liquidity.
In the short term, watch if $0.027–$0.030 can hold, with rebound resistance at $0.038–$0.040. To challenge the $0.046 high again, volume must increase again, and there must be no rapid plunge after a spike.
The most exciting thing about this coin is that you can earn a month's salary in ten minutes, and the most real thing is that ten minutes later, the salary is taken back.In-depth Analysis of SK Hynix (August 7, 2026)
1. Market Performance: Both Korean and U.S. Stocks Under Pressure
Korean Stock (000660.KS): Closed at 1,422,000 KRW on August 7, down 4.88% that day. Over the past month, it has dropped 35.39%, retreating more than 50% from the 52-week high of 2,987,000 KRW, with market capitalization falling below the 1,009 trillion KRW mark.
U.S. ADR (SKHY): Closed at $143.53 on August 6, down 4.97%, intraday low reached $137.71, with a volatility of 6.3% and trading volume of $3.192 billion. The 52-week range is $124.80 to $194.80.
On August 7, at the Korean market open, SK Hynix briefly rose 1.74%, Samsung Electronics rose over 2%, but the rebound was limited.
2. Reasons for the Decline: Triple Pressure Resonance
1. ADR Listing Is Not a Simple "Unlock"
On July 10, SK Hynix completed a $26.5 billion ADR issuance, setting a record for foreign companies raising funds in the U.S. market. However, attributing this round of decline to "unlock pressure" is inaccurate—the Korea Securities Depository has clearly confirmed that the number of Korean listed shares convertible to ADRs is strictly limited to 2.5% of the total outstanding shares, and this quota has been fully used. The core suppressing factors are: deleveraging of domestic Korean leveraged funds, systemic correction in the global AI hardware sector, and the market's early pricing in of a peak in the memory cycle.
2. Collective Collapse of the Memory Sector
On June 25, Micron released its Q3 earnings—both revenue and profit hit record highs, but management indicated that the pace of memory price increases would significantly slow in Q4, signaling a phase top for the entire memory sector. Throughout July, SK Hynix fell 35.17%, Micron fell 28.69%, and Samsung Electronics fell about 21%.
On August 6, the memory sector plunged again—Western Digital dropped 13.03%, SanDisk fell 6.81%, SK Hynix ADR fell 4.97%, and Micron fell 1.31%.
3. "Earnings Sell-off": The Better the Results, the Worse the Drop
Goldman Sachs research team pointed out that market expectations have been overly elevated, so any modest future guidance is interpreted negatively. Recently, companies like AMD, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics have all experienced similar "earnings sell-offs" after releasing strong earnings reports.
4. Changes in Competitive Landscape
According to Counterpoint Research data, Samsung Electronics reclaimed the global DRAM revenue lead with a 39% market share. More critically, SK Hynix's market share has sharply declined from 39% in the same period of 2025.
3. Latest Developments: $38 Billion Expansion Plan
On August 7, SK Hynix announced plans to build two new wafer fabs in Yongin and Cheongju, South Korea, with a total investment of about 54 trillion KRW (approximately $38.4 billion).
· Yongin "Y2" Fab: Investment of 35.2 trillion KRW, to become a DRAM production base, expected to start construction in July next year, with the first cleanroom targeted for June 2029, for producing HBM and other next-generation DRAM products.
· Cheongju "M17" Fab: Investment of 19.1 trillion KRW, to become a new NAND production base, expected to start construction in February next year, with the first cleanroom planned to open in December 2028.
The company emphasized phased capacity expansion based on actual customer demand timing, with wafer fab construction proceeding as planned, and cleanroom expansion and equipment investment implemented gradually according to market dynamics.
4. Institutional Views: Generally Bullish but with Lowered Price Targets
JPMorgan (August 5): Lowered target price from 3,000,000 KRW to 2,750,000 KRW but clearly stated "viewing the recent adjustment as a buying opportunity." Expected Q3 and Q4 operating profits are 78 trillion KRW and 93 trillion KRW, respectively.
Bank of America Global Research: Resumed coverage with a "Buy" rating, Korean stock target price 3,000,000 KRW, ADR target price $250, stating that HBM's leading position will drive the company into an "operating profit supercycle not yet fully priced by Wall Street."
Needham (first coverage on August 4): "Buy" rating with a target price of $200.
FactSet (49 analysts): Median EPS estimate for 2026 raised to $25.12, average target price $222.10.
Goldman Sachs: Maintains SK Hynix target price at 3,500,000 KRW, reiterates "Buy" rating, believes market concerns about the Korean memory industry are mostly overinterpreted.
5. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Battle
Bullish Logic: HBM4 volume ramp-up in the second half of the year is expected to support growth; long-term supply agreements signed with about 10 customers; Q2 revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW and operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW both hit record highs; top investment banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are collectively bullish, with average target prices still over 50% above current prices.
Bearish Logic: 35% plunge in one month; DRAM market share sharply declined from 39%; concerns about memory cycle peak; $38 billion expansion may exacerbate future supply glut.
6. Summary
SK Hynix is caught in an extreme tug-of-war between the strongest performance cycle in history and the most pessimistic market sentiment. Q2 revenue increased 257%, profit increased 557%, both record highs, yet it suffered historic sell-offs due to "missing expectations." Meanwhile, top investment banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Needham have intensively covered and are collectively bullish, with average target prices indicating huge upside potential.
The current levels of 1,422,000 KRW (Korean stock) and $143.53 (ADR) are key observation points—holding these levels combined with catalysts like HBM4 volume ramp-up could lead to recovery toward institutional target ranges; a decisive break below may lead to further retesting of 52-week lows.
The above is market information and data analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $SKHY 1. Core Nonfarm Payroll Data This Time (Announced on the Evening of 2026.8.7)
• Announced Value: July Nonfarm Employment -23,000
• Market Expectation: +80,000, Previous Value (June) Revised Down from 57,000 to 20,000
• Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Lower than Expected 4.2%), but Labor Force Participation Rate Dropped Sharply, Large Number of People Exited the Job Market, This Unemployment Rate Is "Falsely Favorable"
• Essential Conclusion: Employment Market Weakened Beyond Expectations, Clear Signal of Cooling U.S. Economy
2. Macro Changes Brought by the Data
1. Fed Rate Expectations Revised
Employment data was a cold surprise, market directly lowered the probability of a September rate hike, raising expectations for future rate cuts.
Rate cut expectations = market liquidity becomes looser, bearish for the U.S. dollar, bullish for gold, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets
2. Immediate Market Reaction
• U.S. Dollar Index Plunged Rapidly
• Gold and Silver Spiked Sharply in the Short Term
• U.S. Stock Futures Rose, Overall Risk Appetite Improved in the Short Term
3. Two Mid-term Constraints to Watch
◦ If wage data rebounds later and inflation data rebounds, Fed’s easing expectations will quickly be withdrawn, causing the market to spike and then fall back
◦ Altcoins have huge profit-taking pressure; after positive news, they often experience "buy the rumor, sell the fact" spikes followed by sharp sell-offs
4. Key Upcoming Indicator: U.S. CPI Inflation Data Next Wednesday, which truly determines the subsequent major direction
3. Summary of Trading Situation
1. Tonight’s nonfarm data is positive for risk assets, short-term market sentiment is bullish;
2. But positive news does not mean a one-sided, mindless rally; small coins that have surged at highs will have more extreme volatility and are prone to spikes that trigger stop-losses;
3. Avoid chasing high leverage contracts to speculate on the afterglow of nonfarm data; after the positive news is priced in, a sharp correction can come at any time. SanDisk (SNDK) Real-Time Market Analysis (August 7, 2026)
1. Real-Time Price and Market Performance
As of the close of the U.S. stock market on August 6, SanDisk (SNDK) was priced at $1,258.58, plunging 6.81%, with a trading volume of $23.947 billion, ranking 4th in U.S. stock trading volume that day. After-hours slightly rebounded to $1,275.00 (+0.86%).
Before the market opened on Friday, SanDisk rose 3.53% to $1,302.96, as investors bought on dips following the sharp drop after the earnings report. However, earlier pre-market it had plunged over 10% to $1,213.17.
From a broader timeframe, SanDisk’s highest price this year reached $2,354.39 (June 22), then steadily declined. Despite a year-to-date gain of about 360%, it has retraced approximately 46.5% from its historical high.
2. Q4 Earnings: Explosive Data, Stock Price Plunge
After market close on August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 FY2026 earnings:
· Revenue: $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding market expectations of $8.39 billion
· Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 84.6%, up 58.2 percentage points year-over-year
· Non-GAAP EPS: $39.25, exceeding the guidance range ($30–33) and market expectation of $34.45
· GAAP Net Profit: $6.9 billion
For the full FY2026, revenue reached $20.248 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
The data center business was the biggest highlight this quarter: revenue of $2.977 billion, up 1298% year-over-year and 103% quarter-over-quarter. Full-year data center revenue was $5.153 billion, up 437% year-over-year.
However, after the earnings release, SanDisk’s pre-market price plunged over 10%. The issue lies in the FY27 Q1 guidance—revenue expected between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, below Wall Street’s expectation of $10.8 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%–85%, midpoint down 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The market had already priced in high expectations, and the guidance failed to continue Q4’s "leapfrog growth."
3. Institutional Ratings: Collective Target Price Cuts, Consensus Still "Buy"
After the earnings, multiple institutions lowered target prices:
Institution Rating Old Target Price New Target Price
Citi Buy 2,500 2,100
Jefferies — 3,000 1,750
Wells Fargo Equal-Weight 1,620 1,400
RBC Capital Sector Perform — 1,300
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant maintains a "Buy" rating, citing very strong eSSD demand and giving a "90-day short-term buy" recommendation. The analyst consensus rating remains "Buy," with an average target price of $2,114.77.
Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley believes the plunge is an overreaction and recommends "buying the dip." Some market observers also consider the sell-off an overpanic.
4. Core Logic of the Bull-Bear Tug of War
Bullish logic:
· 10 long-term agreements locked in future revenue: 10 multi-year supply agreements signed, 8 with 6 customers, weighted average term over 4 years, minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. 50% of FY2027 capacity and two-thirds of FY2028 capacity already locked in.
· Additional $14 billion buyback authorization: $4.5 billion repurchased this quarter; with new authorization, remaining executable buyback total reaches $15.5 billion.
· HBF standard released: Jointly released with SK Hynix, the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) standard is regarded as a "new species" for AI storage, opening long-term growth potential.
· Valuation has significantly declined: Current P/E ratio about 16.4x, significantly compressed from before.
Bearish logic:
· Guidance below expectations: Q1 midpoint guidance of $10.55 billion below market expectation of $10.8 billion.
· Signs of gross margin peak: Gross margin midpoint guidance down 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter; market worries profitability is near a cyclical peak.
· Excessive year-to-date gains: Price surged over 750% this year, large profit-taking potential; any disappointing signal could trigger profit-taking.
· Storage cycle concerns: Some investors worry NAND pricing momentum is slowing.
5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
SanDisk has retraced about 46.5% from the June historical high of $2,354, dipping to $985 in late July before rebounding to $1,427.
Current pattern: Stock price remains about 49% above the 200-day moving average, but about 9% below the 20-day moving average and about 24% below the 50-day moving average. MACD remains above the signal line, indicating selling pressure has eased.
Key resistance:
· $1,290–$1,320: Core short-term resistance zone
· $1,420: Recent rebound high
· $1,727: Early July rebound high
Key support:
· $1,240–$1,250: Near current price, short-term support
· $1,220: Key defense level
· $985: Low point of this correction, trend lifeline
6. Summary
SanDisk is caught in an intense tug-of-war between its strongest earnings in history and extreme market sentiment—Q4 revenue surged 372%, gross margin 84.6%, both record highs, yet the stock plunged 6.81% due to Q1 guidance "only meeting expectations." The price has fallen from the year’s high of $2,354 to $1,258, a 46.5% retracement.
The core contradiction lies between fundamental positives such as 10 long-term contracts locking in $93.9 billion minimum revenue, data center revenue surging 1298%, $15.5 billion buyback authorization, and concerns over guidance missing expectations, gross margin peaking, and storage cycle doubts. Institutions like Citi and Barclays see this as a "buy the dip" opportunity, but short-term technicals remain bearish. Whether $1,240–$1,250 can hold will determine if there is a double bottom or a continuation of the rebound.
$SNDK 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Elon Musk's hand is starting to reach into storage. Yesterday, the world's largest AI chip manufacturing project, Terafab, officially launched. Phase one investment is $16.8 billion, with the entire project planned to invest up to $119 billion. Many people think this is just another chip factory being built. What truly deserves attention is something else. Tesla has already started recruiting DRAM process engineers, with job responsibilities explicitly stating: responsible for DRAM memory cell process integration, mass production introduction, and yield optimization. This means Terafab's future layout is not just AI chips. It also includes the most important storage for AI servers. Why is this important? Because in recent years, Musk has been competing for GPUs, HBM, and servers. Now, he is starting to build his own AI supply chain. If Terafab truly gains storage manufacturing capability in the future, what Musk wants to control is not just AI chips, but the entire industry chain from computing, storage to advanced packaging. Of course, this does not mean Terafab has already started producing DRAM, nor does it mean it will immediately challenge Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Update (August 8)
According to liquidation data, the shorts were brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $21,300 $16,400 $4,925.01
4 hours $269,700 $17,700 $252,000
12 hours $442,000 $119,800 $322,100
24 hours $861,200 $216,400 $644,800
From the $HYPE liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, long liquidations crushed shorts, with longs being 3.3 times the shorts, indicating a fierce short squeeze at the start; at 4 hours, the direction suddenly reversed, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts were 14 times longs, triggering a full short squeeze; at 12 hours, shorts maintained dominance at about 2.7 times, with the short squeeze spanning short to mid-term cycles; at 24 hours, short liquidations surged to $640,000, three times the longs. The dog whales completed a fierce turnaround on HYPE from killing longs to squeezing shorts — short-term longs were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $860,000. Everyone, control your positions and avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "expectations maxed out, flaws are fatal" — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a 372% year-over-year surge; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a 557% year-over-year increase.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders averaged a 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: A Classic Case of "Bad News is Good News"
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced is good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ The U.S. Department of Labor dropped a bombshell: Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, yet the market surged across the board as if on a stimulant. From gold to tech stocks, from bonds to cryptocurrencies, everything is rising—all because one logic is instantly reinforced: the Fed can't raise interest rates. Outline of this article – 💥 A number that ignites all assets – 📈 gold goes crazy, tech stocks laugh, but what about Bitcoin? - 🎯 Where is the capital flowing? $BICO $SPCX Carnival - ⚠️ After the Wild Rally, Where Are the Hidden Concerns? Today's Snapshot $BTC 64,990, +0.89% $ETH 1,924, +0.84% $QQQ +1.00%, $SPY +0.43% $DXY -0.36%, $GLD +2.68% $IBIT +1.32% VIX 15.05, -0.59% US Crude Oil $USO 117.7838, -0.91% I. One Number Ignites All Assets 💥 U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, compared to an expected increase of 200,000. This negative value directly shattered the illusion that "the labor market remains strong." After the data was released, market interest rate pricing showed the probability of a Fed rate hike this year sharply dropped, and the 2-year Treasury yield plummeted. The logic of the stock market immediately reversed: before, there was fear that strong data would attract hawks, but now bad data has become the green light for rate cuts. $QQQ Nasdaq ETF rose 1%, $SPY rose 0.43%. Gold is even more like a pillar#Western Union Stablecoin Card Launches, Visa Payment Scenarios Advance Again
The real challenge for stablecoins to enter everyday payments has never been whether on-chain transfers are fast enough. USDT and USDC have long been available 24/7 with instant or near-instant transfers in minutes or even seconds. The real difficulty comes after the money arrives in the wallet—what does the average person do next? To buy something, they usually have to first sell the stablecoin, convert it to local fiat currency, withdraw it to a bank, and then use a bank card to pay. The on-chain part is fast, but the last mile still loops back to the traditional financial system.
Western Union’s new Stablecard solves exactly this step. This card is based on Western Union’s own USD stablecoin USDPT and connects to the Visa payment network. After receiving USDPT, users can keep the dollar value in their wallet and pay directly by swiping the Visa card without manually converting stablecoins to a bank account each time.
The initial rollout covers 37 markets, with about 175 million merchant points accepting Visa payments, and Western Union plans to expand further.
These numbers together make this crypto card far more significant. Western Union itself has over 100 million customers, operates in more than 200 countries and regions, and has traditionally excelled in cross-border remittances and a vast offline network. Now USDPT brings on-chain dollars into the mix. USDPT is issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and runs on Solana. Western Union also announced the Digital Asset Network, connecting over 360,000 cash pickup points worldwide through this network.
This changes the money flow path. The sender can still use traditional remittance, but the receiver can get USDPT. If they want to hold dollars, they keep it in the wallet; if they want to spend it directly, they swipe the Visa card; if they need cash, they can use Western Union’s existing offline network to exchange. Here, stablecoins are no longer just intermediate assets on exchanges but start to connect remittance, holding, spending, and cash withdrawal simultaneously.
This is particularly interesting for Solana. Past discussions about a chain’s value often focus on TPS, fees, DEX volume, and MEME activity, but payment applications look at a different set of metrics: how much real money flows daily, how many users settle payments, whether funds need to flow 24/7, and if transactions can sustain. Western Union issuing USDPT on Solana effectively brings a portion of real-world cross-border payment demand directly onto this chain.
Its relationship with Visa is also noteworthy. Visa has been promoting stablecoin settlement for years, already using USDC for some settlements on Solana and other networks. Now Stablecard puts stablecoins directly into consumers’ hands. Previously, Visa used stablecoins for backend settlement, invisible to ordinary consumers; now users hold stablecoins but can still spend like with a regular bank card.
These two paths are converging. The chain handles asset movement and settlement, Visa continues to manage the global merchant acceptance network, and users don’t even need to know which chain processes their payment. For stablecoins, this model is likely more practical than requiring every merchant to integrate wallets and accept USDC or USDPT themselves. It’s very difficult to have hundreds of millions of merchants overhaul their payment systems, but integrating stablecoins into the existing Visa network lowers the barrier significantly.
Western Union is not starting from scratch. It already processes massive cross-border funds annually; now it’s just moving part of the settlement layer on-chain and reconnecting stablecoins to its existing customers, agents, and cash network.
Therefore, the immediate transaction volume Stablecard brings to SOL is less important than whether this model can be replicated. If more banks, remittance companies, and fintech platforms adopt similar structures—settling with stablecoins in the backend while continuing to accept Visa, Mastercard, and local payment networks in the frontend—stablecoin adoption might never happen by everyone starting to pay with crypto wallets. Instead, it could quietly embed itself into existing payment products. Users still swipe the familiar card, merchants receive normal settlements, but the layer responsible for cross-border fund movement gradually shifts to on-chain dollars.1. Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Data Interpretation:
Market Expectation: 83,000, Previous: 57,000
Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
2. Simple Logic
Strong employment → interest rates hard to cut → negative for US tech stocks, dollar rises
Weak employment, low wages → favorable for rate cut expectations → positive for stocks and gold
3. Three Possible Outcomes
60,000-100,000 (neutral, most likely): market volatility is limited
>130,000 (very strong): tech under pressure, dollar strengthens
<40,000 (very weak): positive for stocks and gold; if unemployment rate spikes, it may trigger recession panic and stock market decline
$ETH $BTC 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Non-farm payrolls have landed, and the market is not really trading the data itself, but the Fed's next direction.
After tonight's US non-farm payroll data release, the market's first reaction is not simply "bullish or bearish," but rather a repricing of the liquidity environment for the coming months.
From the data, there are clear signs of cooling in the US labor market, with new jobs below expectations and past employment data revised downward. This means the high interest rate environment's pressure on the economy is gradually manifesting. The market is starting to lower expectations for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, putting pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields.
For the crypto market, the logic still revolves around two core points:
First, dollar liquidity.
In recent years, Bitcoin and Ethereum have increasingly resembled high-volatility risk assets, closely linked to US stocks and dollar liquidity. When the market begins to expect rate cuts and risk appetite rises, BTC and ETH often benefit first.
Second, market chip structure.
Data at the level of non-farm payrolls often does not directly determine the trend but serves as a tool for capital to shake out positions. Before the data release, a large amount of capital positions itself in advance; after the data release, the market often experiences a "kill the direction first, then follow the trend" pattern.
Regarding BTC:
Currently, the medium- to long-term logic for Bitcoin remains unchanged.
If the dollar continues to weaken and the Fed signals clearer easing, BTC still has the chance to test previous resistance zones upward.
However, a short-term issue cannot be ignored:
If after the non-farm positive news the price does not quickly break through resistance but instead rallies and then falls back, it indicates the market may have already priced in expectations, and capital will choose to take profits.
So the key points to watch next are:
* Whether the upper resistance is effectively broken;
* Whether trading volume expands in sync;
* Whether there is capital support on pullbacks.
A truly healthy rally is not driven by a single candlestick but by continuous capital inflows pushing the trend formation.
Regarding ETH:
Compared to BTC, Ethereum currently has greater elasticity.
If the market enters a phase of rising risk appetite, ETH usually experiences a catch-up rally.
But ETH's issue is that it needs new capital narratives to drive it, such as ecosystem growth or continuous ETF inflows; otherwise, simply following BTC's rise may have limited sustainability.
In the short term, ETH's key focus is whether support zones hold firm.
If BTC remains strong, ETH is very likely to follow with a rebound; if BTC undergoes a significant correction, ETH, due to higher volatility, may also see a more pronounced adjustment.
Summary:
The core signal from this non-farm release is not "an immediate bull market start," but that the market is gradually trading the expectation of "liquidity improvement."
Future market moves are unlikely to be smooth upward trends but rather repeated battles among macro data, capital flows, and market sentiment.
For traders, the most important thing now is not to predict every candlestick but to wait for trend confirmation.
True major moves often do not occur on the day of data release but when the market digests the data and capital begins to form a consensus direction.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
How does Pharaoh view tonight's non-farm payroll data?
Everyone is asking Pharaoh how to bet on tonight's non-farm payroll data—will Bitcoin surge or crash?
Pharaoh says directly: the data will most likely be weak tonight. The Bitcoin script is "dip first, then rebound." Don't chase near 64800; wait for a pullback to buy in more securely.
Let's first look at tonight's data expectations. The market expects about 83,000 new jobs added in July, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. But some institutions have started to call for a downturn. Vanguard Group, based on 401(k) pension data, estimates only about 18,000 new jobs in July. ADP data has already given a warning signal: only 44,000 private sector jobs added in July, far below the expected 75,000. If tonight's data really disappoints, rate hike expectations will cool further, the dollar will weaken, and Bitcoin will get a short breather.
But the market consensus is just over 80,000, and the probability of below 60,000 is even higher. Fed Governor Cook also added fuel this week, saying if inflation doesn't come down, she is ready to support rate hikes.
So how will Bitcoin move?
Chasing longs here is just helping others carry the coffin. Combining the chart and macro expectations, Pharaoh leans toward a "dip first, then rebound" scenario—after the data release, first pull back to 64000-64300 to confirm support, then rebound to 65000-65500. If the data is significantly below expectations, it might even surge directly to 66000. But until 65000 breaks out with volume, don't rush in. Wait for the data to land and the market to digest the first wave of emotions before acting—this is a hundred times more reliable than betting on direction.
You can short blindly above 65000; a quick 500-1000 points profit is no problem!
Remember, good trades are waited for, not chased. Don't rush to jump in tonight; wait for the shoe to drop before making a move. Those who rush will lose first.
Follow Pharaoh, and wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SNDK MSTR Returns to $102 — Bitcoin's "Shadow Stock" Is Sending Key Signals
---
1. Event Background
On August 7, Strategy (MSTR) stock price rose above $102 again after more than two weeks. MSTR is the world's largest enterprise-level holder of Bitcoin, holding approximately 843,775 BTC as of July 31, with a position value of about $54.4 billion and an average holding cost of around $75,419 per BTC.
MSTR essentially acts as a "leveraged alternative" to Bitcoin — when BTC rises, MSTR usually gains more; when BTC falls, MSTR declines more sharply. Therefore, MSTR's stock price returning to $102 is an important signal of restored market confidence in Bitcoin.
2. Why This Matters Now?
1. Reversal from "Discount" to "Premium"
Previously, MSTR's stock price was consistently below the net asset value (NAV) of its Bitcoin holdings, showing a "discount". Recently, this trend reversed, and returning to $102 indicates market recognition of the valuation of its Bitcoin holdings.
2. Key Turning Point in Market Sentiment
Two weeks ago, MSTR's stock price briefly fell below $95, raising concerns about its debt safety margin and Bitcoin downside risks. The rebound to $102 shows that the market's most pessimistic moment has passed.
3. Accompanied by Continuous ETF Inflows
On the same day, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 1,673 BTC (about $108 million), maintaining positive inflows for several consecutive days. The synchronization between MSTR and ETF capital flows strengthens the judgment that "institutional funds are re-entering the market."
3. Core Logic: CLARITY Act Expectations and "Last Boarding" Whale Signal
MSTR's price rebound coincides with three events:
① The CLARITY Act Finally Sees Hope
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott clearly stated on the evening of August 6 that the bill will "undoubtedly" be voted on before recess. Although the probability of passage remains below 20%, Scott, as a senior Republican, has sent a strong signal of progress. This is the first positive substantive catalyst in nearly two months.
② Whale Publicly Bullish: "Last Chance to Get Onboard"
The whale known as "Set 10 Big Targets" on platform X openly called it the "last chance to get onboard." In this rally, the whale built a position with 300 BTC, targeting $300 million, having already realized $60 million in profits. Previously, four long trades resulted in three wins and one loss, with cumulative profits of $9.96 million.
③ Sentiment Warm-up Before Nonfarm Payroll Data Release
Before the August 7 nonfarm employment report, BTC had already rebounded above $65,000. The market has partially priced in positive expectations for the CLARITY Act but has not fully priced it yet.
4. Risk Factors: Variables to Watch
· CLARITY Act Uncertainty: Passage probability remains below 20%. If it fails to advance before recess, the market may face short-term sentiment correction.
· MSTR Debt Safety Margin: With an average holding cost around $75,000, a significant BTC pullback could renew concerns over debt pressure.
· Nonfarm Data and Dollar Index: If employment data exceeds expectations, a dollar rebound could temporarily suppress BTC, interrupting the current rebound momentum.
5. Summary
MSTR returning to $102, continuous ETF net inflows, and whales publicly bullish — these three signals are being sent simultaneously.
As Bitcoin's "leveraged alternative," MSTR's stock price leads BTC's stabilization and serves as the market's most direct sentiment indicator. If the CLARITY Act sees substantive progress within the next week, $102 may only be the starting point of MSTR's rebound. In the long term, Bitcoin returning to $100,000 within the year remains a high-probability event.
$BTC Since this post was made, the market has been shaken for 4 days, pushing the price of $BTC from 63k up to 64.8k. Many long positions were shaken out in the process, with some even switching from long to short. Now it is retesting the upper edge of the channel.
Tonight is the non-farm payroll data release. Previous value was 57,000, expected 80,000.
If it is significantly higher than 80,000 (for example >120,000-150,000) → employment remains resilient, which may weaken rate cut expectations, benefiting the US dollar and hurting gold and US bonds.
If it is close to or below 57,000 → employment continues to cool, strengthening the Fed's easing expectations, which is negative for the US dollar and positive for risk assets and precious metals.
Personally, I think it won't be too low, probably between 70,000 and 80,000. Waiting for the market reaction. If $BTC can maintain above 64k after the data release, it can at least continue to push up to 65.8k The crypto M&A market is experiencing a "cash frenzy, shrinking volume" market segment. According to CryptoRank data, the crypto industry announced 87 M&A deals in the first half of 2026, a 25% decrease compared to the second half of 2025, but disclosed deal amounts rose to $9.66 billion, a month-on-month increase of 223%, setting a new half-year high in the statistics' history. Record-high amounts ≠ market valuations generally rise Behind this seemingly contradictory phenomenon is that only 24% of transactions disclosed amounts, while the top four transactions contributed 76% of the total disclosed amount. The median disclosed transaction remains at $100 million, indicating that "sky-high prices" are not the industry norm. Largest deal: Gemini acquired BitGo for about $3.77 billion, accounting for about 39% of the total amount. Second largest: SpaceX acquired VC for about $1.6 billion. These two deals together contributed more than half of the disclosure amount. M&A direction: Infrastructure becomes the biggest hotspot Infrastructure (19 cases, about 22%) surpassed DeFi (only 9 cases) to become the largest acquisition category. This indicates that the focus of M&A in the first half of 2026 is shifting from the product layer (trading platforms, DeFi protocols) to the underlying layer (compliance infrastructure, custody services, on-chain data, node operations). The crypto industry is undergoing a round of "territorial expansion"—leading players are strengthening market barriers through mergers and acquisitions, large deals are driving up disclosed total amounts, but transaction volumes for small and medium-sized projects are cooling down. A handful of leading players are strengthening market barriers through mergers and acquisitions, especially small and medium-sized projectsAt the end of October 2023, Bitcoin suddenly started a major bull market rally
Rising from 25,000 to 74,000 in March 2024, breaking the all-time high
During this process, a large number of people missed out on the bull market
Later, people realized that the main driver of this bull market was the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and expectations of interest rate cuts
We all know that bull markets in crypto are determined by narratives and liquidity.
So many people think, if I find the main narrative for the next bull market, then just buy the corresponding tokens, right?
Many also think, there are no good news now, how could a bull market come?
This is a typical event-driven trade
In reality, it’s very difficult to predict what the next bull market narrative will be and when it will start, and for ordinary people, time should not be spent on narrative prediction
I’ll give you a few examples to show how difficult it is
In 2023, besides ETFs, there were Shanghai upgrades, Cancun upgrades, inscription ecosystems, Hong Kong compliance, Layer2 explosions—each was touted as the "main narrative for the next bull market"; fake narratives were everywhere, making it hard to distinguish truth from falsehood at the start
We now remember ETF as the main narrative because it ultimately became the main narrative; but at the same time, countless disproven narratives were forgotten afterward.
This is the first difficulty: choosing the right main narrative
On June 15, 2023, BlackRock submitted a spot ETF application. Although this signal looks obvious now, at that time no one believed it would definitely pass; many opinions were "The SEC has rejected for ten years, this time will be the same, just a pump and dump";
When Grayscale won the lawsuit, many said "The SEC can still appeal, can still delay, approval is far off";
And the August crash and SEC’s delayed approval bad news made many think the narrative was disproven
Also, it was still a rate hike cycle then, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% at one point; many mechanically believed high rates meant no bull market,
Until October broke through 35,000, some still thought it was the "last bull trap"
The clarity after the fact is essentially survivor bias
Looking back at the 2023 ETF market—from BlackRock’s application to Grayscale’s lawsuit victory, to formal approval—each step looked like a clear signal, but no main narrative was universally recognized by the market on day one. By the time everyone confirmed it was the main narrative, the market had often risen 50% or even doubled, and the biggest early gains were gone.
This is the second difficulty: believing in the main narrative’s success and daring to go heavy
Back to the current environment, we still face the same problems. We see the Clarity Act vote has been postponed to September, so the question is, will it definitely pass in September? Will it pass this year? What if it doesn’t?
Also, there is currently no liquidity environment to start a bull market, and the market is still pricing in a rate hike in September, with occasional news of three rate hikes
If you don’t know the answers to these questions, I advise you not to spend too much energy looking for them. Wall Street has countless geniuses searching for answers—they can study spokesperson statements, read documents, privately contact insiders, conduct interviews, etc. These information advantages are beyond our reach
For us, the main focus should be on chip structure
Bitcoin has now dropped more than 50% since last October, a full 10 months have passed, and the market has told us selling pressure is exhausted, sentiment has cleared, so we just need to keep buying, without paying attention to external news, bad news, or various KOL predictions—those are all noise
Secondly, choose places where winners concentrate
Every Bitcoin bull market has its own narrative, this is indisputable and a must-buy
Tokens that capture the main narrative are public chain tokens, such as ETH, BNB, SOL
2024 is Solana’s meme narrative, 2025 is bitmine buying ETH, BNB is present both years, 2024’s Launchpool and 2025’s treasury buying tokens;
Next is sector selection, which is less certain than public chains. For example, DeFi had a terrible outcome in 2023. At that time, DeFi protocols were excellent in many ways, with income and growth, much better than many worthless projects, a star sector in 2021, but sorry, this bull market narrative is not with you, prices can only be half-dead, except aave which did better;
If you think DeFi will rebound in the next bull market, you can allocate some, but don’t go all in;
If you think the next bull market’s main narrative is RWA, then the public chain tokens we choose will capture those narrative dividends and won’t be wrong
For ordinary people like us, the only thing to do in a bear market is to keep buying and wait, because we don’t have information advantages;
Don’t wait for good news to start buying
Every bull market starts suddenly from despair, giving you no chance to react, because the start is always the worst time, no good news, poor liquidity, low volume, the whole community looks like it’s finished
Only two kinds of people keep buying:
1. Firm long-term holders who don’t care about news, just buy
2. Wall Street geniuses with information advantages who keep accumulating chips after research
Then one day it suddenly pumps, while most people still think it’s just a bull trap Interest rate hike expectations cool down, will gold return to 4300? US employment data conflicts, Federal Reserve officials play a "empty city strategy," the market is at the eve of a decisive battle.
📊 Core conflict: data clashes, officials bicker
The current macro environment is in an extremely divided state:
Employment polarization: ADP only 44,000, hitting a new low for the year, indicating "hiring is stalling"; while initial jobless claims at 199,000 hit a four-year low, proving "companies have not started layoffs." Goldman Sachs points out that the market is currently in a delicate balance of "low hiring, low layoffs."
Fed rhetoric split: Schmidt issues a rate hike warning, Cook claims to watch inflation actions, Bessent thinks it's unnecessary. Three giants, three voices, causing CME's September rate hike probability to be stuck at the critical 55% line.
💸 Asset game: gold to the left, BTC to the right
Different assets have priced the current "data clash" with completely different underlying logics:
Gold (XAU): the absolute interest rate barometer
Trading logic: weakening ADP ➡️ cooling rate hike expectations ➡️ dollar and US Treasury yields both fall ➡️ interest-free asset gold benefits.
Current status: although it retreated after surpassing $4300, its pricing is the most sensitive and pure to weakening macro interest rates.
SanDisk (SNDK): good performance, defeated by expectations
Trading logic: revenue surged 372%, gross margin 84.6% accompanied by massive buybacks, but high-tech growth stocks naturally fear sustained high rates.
Current status: after-hours dropped 7%, proving the current market only looks at the "future rate environment," not the "past financial performance."
Bitcoin (BTC): macro blunted, funds tug-of-war
Trading logic: although ETFs continue net inflows, Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, showing a "US institutions withdrawing, Asian funds stepping in" state with no one taking the other side.
Current status: consolidating around $64,000. It's not ignoring macro, but internal Fed divisions cause funds to hesitate to bet early on BTC.
🎯 Summary and outlook
Gold trades rate expectations, BTC waits for its own catalyst.
The current macro direction is extremely unclear, the contradiction between the two sets of employment data directly balances bullish and bearish forces. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data and next Thursday's CPI will be the ultimate judge to break this deadlock. Once the data sets the tone, the September rate hike suspense will be resolved, and the market will usher in a true one-sided major direction.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ August 7｜BTC Data Evening Report
BTC Real-Time Market
As of press time, BTC is around $65,150, with a 24-hour high of about $65,391 and a low of about $64,166, up approximately 1.49% in 24 hours, with the price returning to near $65,000.
ETF Funds
On August 6, the total net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was $137.6 million, marking the 4th consecutive trading day of net inflows.
From August 3 to 6, the cumulative net inflow was about $763.6 million. The continuity of funds has clearly improved, but the single-day inflow on August 6 decreased compared to the previous day.
On-Chain Holdings (by address size)
Continuous snapshots from August 6 to August 7:
Under 10 BTC: net decrease of about 28 BTC, latest total holdings approximately 3.4387 million BTC
10–100 BTC: net decrease of about 1,805 BTC, latest total holdings approximately 4.2202 million BTC
Over 100 BTC: net increase of about 2,070 BTC, latest total holdings approximately 12.4054 million BTC
Within over 100 BTC:
100–1,000 BTC: net increase of about 3,645 BTC, latest about 5.1664 million BTC
1,000–10,000 BTC: net decrease of about 323 BTC, latest about 4.2779 million BTC
10,000–100,000 BTC: net decrease of about 1,252 BTC, latest about 2.2564 million BTC
Over 100,000 BTC: net change 0 BTC, latest about 704,700 BTC
The new additions are mainly concentrated in the 100–1,000 BTC range; holdings above 1,000 BTC did not increase correspondingly.
Exchange BTC
Total BTC reserves on major exchanges are about 3.6232 million, with a net decrease of about 1,381 BTC in the past day.
Among them, Coinbase decreased by about 677 BTC, Binance decreased by about 508 BTC, OKX increased by about 231 BTC, and Bybit increased by about 319 BTC. Currently, no concentrated BTC inflow back to exchanges is observed.
Stablecoin Liquidity
Total stablecoin market size is about $300.435 billion, increasing by about $506 million (+0.17%) in the past 7 days, but still down about 0.76% over 30 days.
USDT is about $183.341 billion, basically flat over 7 days; USDC is about $71.921 billion, down about 2.00% over 30 days.
Stablecoin liquidity has recently stopped declining but has not yet shown clear expansion. Continuous ETF inflows and on-chain USD liquidity have not yet formed strong resonance.
Contract Data
BTC open interest is about $50.48 billion, 24-hour contract trading volume about $42.58 billion, spot trading volume about $2.63 billion, BTC liquidations about $38.93 million.
Contract trading volume is about 16 times that of spot, with funding rates close to neutral. Current risk is not obvious bullish overheating but that trading activity remains highly concentrated on derivatives.
Important News Today
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June employment data were revised down by a total of 103,000. After data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar fell, and market expectations for a September rate hike declined. Short-term rate pressure eased, but if employment continues to worsen, the market may shift to trading weaker economic growth.
Progress in Middle East negotiations caused Brent crude to fall to about $81.79. The drop in oil prices temporarily eases inflation pressure; if the situation fluctuates and oil prices rise rapidly again, it will weaken the positive effect on interest rates.
What to Watch Next
ETF has had inflows for 4 consecutive days, and addresses holding over 100 BTC are also increasing, but stablecoins increased by only $506 million in 7 days. If stablecoin weekly increments significantly expand later while ETF inflows continue, it will indicate true resonance between institutional funds and on-chain USD liquidity; if ETF weakens and stablecoins shrink again, the current improvement will be discounted.
Additionally, the increase over 100 BTC mainly comes from the 100–1,000 BTC range, while holdings above 1,000 BTC are still decreasing. If in future continuous snapshots holdings above 1,000 BTC also start to increase steadily, it will be closer to true large-scale chip concentration.
$BTC #星球日报 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit For this round of BTC, first look at the speed and tone, not just the popularity ranking.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 46 mentions of BTC in one hour at 20:00 on August 7 (China time), including 36 on X and 10 in news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 0.83 times, categorized as "slowed down"; the tone is 30% bullish and 17% bearish. There's no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: popularity answers how many people are talking, tone answers which side the text leans toward, and neither can directly replace transaction volume and capital flow.
If in the next round speed, news sources, and actual market transactions continue together, increase confidence in the judgment; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-term noise. 📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Update (August 8)
According to liquidation data, the shorts have been brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $18,700 $1,988.33 $16,700
4 hours $485,000 $14,300 $470,600
12 hours $708,500 $105,900 $602,600
24 hours $1,279,600 $247,800 $1,031,800
From the $ZEC liquidation data, short liquidations in 1 hour crushed longs by 8.4 times, with a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; in 4 hours, the short advantage expanded further to about 33 times, triggering a full short squeeze; in 12 hours, shorts still led by about 5.7 times, sustaining the squeeze through short to mid cycles; in 24 hours, short liquidations surged to $1.03 million, 4.16 times the longs. The dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on ZEC—short, mid, and long-term shorts were all targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.27 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws are fatal" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be magnified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance—next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the earnings are" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, so any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Lockup Expiry: A Classic Case of "Bad News is Good News"
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the lockup pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on lockup day played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Well-known Wall Street investment bank Bernstein released a new research report, raising the target prices of several companies in one go, covering three major areas: space exploration, cybersecurity, and traditional defense industry. The specific adjustments are as follows: SpaceX's target price has been raised from $239 to $248. Cloudflare's price target was raised from $136 to $164. Lockheed Martin's price target was raised from $614 to $629. Although the report does not specify the specific reasons for each adjustment, combining Bernstein's past research style and the current market environment allows for some interpretation from an industry logic. $SPCX First, let's look at SpaceX. This target price more reflects changes in its equity value. SpaceX's commercial value mainly relies on the stable cash flow of Starlink's business. The future valuation potential largely depends on Starship's R&D progress and the potential for AI space applications. This increase may indicate that Bernstein is more optimistic about the Starship project's commercialization timeline or Starlink user growth expectations. As a cloud services and cybersecurity company, Cloudflare has benefited from the demand for edge computing and cybersecurity protection driven by AI computing power, with its stock price and valuation experiencing significant growth over the past year. Bernstein sharply raised the target price from $136 to $164, demonstrating strong confidence in its technological moat and profitability in the AI era. Locke$SNDK SNDK hit a low of 1232 tonight, approaching the 1167 low point again. Three days after the earnings report, it dropped from 1483 to 1232, wiping out a $250 gain. The profit rebounded from the 993 bottom has already given back half.
What exactly happened?
1. The "good news priced in" after the earnings report is still being digested. The earnings data was impressive, but the stock price didn’t respond — short-term profit-taking was heavy, rising 49% from 993 to 1483, and the floating profit at the bottom needs to be cleared.
2. The RWA sector as a whole is pulling back, and SNDK, as the sector leader, is the first to be hit. The market is consolidating around 64000, risk appetite is shrinking, and growth stock valuations are temporarily compressed.
3. The price has fallen continuously these two days, but trading volume is shrinking — today’s turnover was 2.1 billion, 500 million less than yesterday. This indicates selling pressure is decreasing, and panic selling is exhausting. The first time it hit 1167, volume expanded; today when it hit 1232, volume contracted. A volume-contracted decline often signals the bears are losing strength.
Can you still hold now?
Wall Street target prices are still hanging there — Susquehanna raised its target from 3250 to 3500 USD, Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy, Evercore reiterated 3100 USD. There is still over 70% upside between the current price and Wall Street’s average target. The fundamentals haven’t changed; what changed is short-term sentiment.
What about technicals?
RSI6 is 33.64, close to oversold territory, with limited downside in the short term. The 1220-1230 range is short-term support; breaking below that looks toward 1160-1170. The 1280-1300 range is the first resistance; stabilizing above 1280 is a sign of stabilization.
Trading advice:
For those with positions: Cutting losses here doesn’t make much sense; wait for a rebound to 1280-1300 before considering reducing positions.
For those not yet in: Wait for a stable break above 1280 before considering entry; entering on the right side is safer.
Core conclusion: Short-term profit-taking is still being digested, but the volume-contracted decline + RSI at 33 near oversold indicates bearish momentum is waning. The direction is still upward but requires time to exchange for space. ETF data this week superficially shows net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling over $620 million.
But breaking it down, on August 5th there was a single-day inflow of $240 million, August 6th saw $180 million inflow, and August 7th less than $200 million.
The daily inflow amount is decreasing.
BlackRock IBIT accounted for the majority, with inflows from other products being almost negligible.
More importantly, the price reaction—on August 5th, ETF inflow was $240 million, closing at 64,000 with a 1.7% increase. On August 6th, inflow was $180 million, closing at 64,200 with a 0.3% increase. On August 7th, inflow was less than $200 million, closing at 64,100, almost unchanged. The marginal effect is diminishing, and the driving force of incremental funds is weakening. The scale of the BTC ETF continues to grow, with total net assets surpassing $83 billion. However, the diminishing marginal utility of incremental funds means that the current price level requires larger capital inflows to push prices higher.
BlackRock IBIT has been buying continuously, while some have been selling continuously in the spot market; these two forces completed a chip turnover around 64,000. The improvement in ETF data is a fact, but the price not following is also a fact. $BTC After the non-farm payroll data was released, the probability of a September rate hike by CME dropped directly from 70% to 40%.
The market immediately reacted with a surge—Bitcoin touched 65,200, gold broke through $4,400, and the US dollar index plunged. Then what? Bitcoin fell back to 64,000.
The deeper contradiction in the market is: Is the weakening employment a "sign of cooling inflation" or "the beginning of an economic recession"? If inflation data continues to decline over the next two months, then this non-farm payroll data is a positive signal. If inflation remains stubborn, the weakening employment data will put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma—without inflation coming down, it cannot cut rates, but with worsening employment, it dares not raise rates. The market has already started discussing the term "stagflation." Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hawkish stance is very clear—price stability is the primary goal, employment is secondary. As long as core inflation remains above 3%, the Fed will not easily pivot due to weakening employment data. $BTC Long-term holders are increasing their positions, while short-term holders are reducing theirs.
Addresses holding for more than 155 days have net increased their BTC positions by about 140,000 in the past month, while short-term holders are simultaneously reducing theirs, with exchange reserves continuously dropping to about 2.18 million.
The supply side is concentrating in the hands of long-term holders, which is a typical accumulation pattern at the bottom of a bear market. Similar structures appeared in the past three times, corresponding to the bottom areas in 2015, 2018, and 2022 respectively.
However, unlike the previous three times, the current price is much higher than historical bottoms, and the macro environment is far more complex than before. Long-term holders are increasing their positions, but the price has not risen yet, indicating that the scale of accumulation is not yet large enough to offset macro pressures. Supply is concentrating, demand is cautious, and the forces on both sides have not yet determined a winner. $BTC Bitcoin's current pricing logic is undergoing subtle changes—it is increasingly acting as an amplifier of macro data rather than an independent safe-haven asset.
Before the non-farm payroll data was released, the market was as quiet as the calm before a storm. After the data came out, there was a sharp dip followed by a rebound, with volatility of less than 1%.
Liquidity is seasonally contracting, and market participants are dwindling. Bitcoin is trading sideways around 64,000, with no clear direction; both long and short positions have low win rates. If 63,800 doesn't hold, then watch for 63,000; if 63,000 doesn't hold, then expect 60,000-61,000. Until the direction becomes clear, watch more and trade less—cash is king. Missing a few days won't hurt.
$BTC 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit 1. The underlying linkage logic in the crypto world: Crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are now highly tied to US growth stocks, Nasdaq, and US dollar liquidity expectations. Nonfarm payrolls weaken unexpectedly → Market bets on Fed to cut rates earlier and more broadly 2. Rate cut expectations rise→ US dollar weakens, market funds increase in future → Risk asset valuations (stocks, currencies) rise 3. Conversely, if employment is overheated and the Fed wants to maintain high interest rates, it will continue to suppress the price of cryptocurrencies. In short: expectations of Fed rate cuts are the biggest macro theme affecting the crypto world this round. 2. Breakdown of Impact Weights 1. Nonfarm payrolls declined (biggest positive factor). The market originally expected 80,000 new jobs, but ended up with a decrease of 23,000, indicating a clear economic cooldown. Traders will immediately trade the phrase "The Fed must cut rates early to save the economy," which is positive for overall bullish sentiment in the crypto market. 2. Wage data sharply declines (second major positive) Wages are the most important indicator of sticky inflation in the US; if wages don't rise, inflation is hard to rebound. It dismissed the Fed's justification of "keeping rates high for a long time to fight inflation," further strengthening the narrative of rate cuts. 3. Slight decline in unemployment rate (the only negative noise) Looking at the unemployment rate alone looks good, a small portion of capital will hesitate. But the market deals with the entire employment report and doesn't look solely at the unemployment rate. This clause has little impact and is basically overshadowed by the other three items. 3. Short-Term to Medium-to-Long-Term Market Prediction Short-term (several hours ~ 1-3 days) - Good news materializes, short-term rallies tend to start with a surge, followed by "positive news realization selling pressure" Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Data Analysis
CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 83,000 new nonfarm jobs in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
But two days ago, ADP data shocked the market — only 44,000 new private sector jobs were added in July, below the expected 75,000, marking the lowest this year.
Employment is slowing down.
CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
ADP 44,000, the lowest this year. June nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000, and April-May combined were revised down by 74,000. Hiring momentum is visibly slowing.
As of the week ending August 1, initial jobless claims were 199,000, below 200,000 for the third consecutive week. Companies are not laying off employees.
In Q2, nonfarm labor productivity grew 1.4%, and unit labor costs rose 1.3% — wages are still increasing, and cost pressures are still being transmitted.
On one hand, fewer people are being hired; on the other, no one is being laid off.
June CPI year-over-year was 3.5%, down from 4.2%, but still far from the 2% target.
Fed Governor Cook said last Wednesday: "Inflation is too high. Inflation risk outweighs employment risk. If necessary, I am ready to raise rates."
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari — one of the three dissenting votes at the July FOMC — also publicly said: "It's time to start raising rates now."
The hawkish voices are getting louder.
On July 29, the FOMC maintained rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote.
All three dissenting votes advocated a 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has had three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction in a single decision.
"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos bluntly stated: This division highlights the growing pressure within the Fed — demanding action on inflation that has been above target for five consecutive years.
The Fed neither cuts nor hikes rates, verbally shouting "zero tolerance for inflation," but holding steady.
The market is starting to lose faith.
The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 48 basis points this year, reaching 4.64%.
The Fed is not raising rates, so the market is raising rates on its own.
In the next six weeks, every CPI, PCE, and nonfarm payroll release will be a storm.
August 12 CPI. August nonfarm payrolls. September 16 FOMC.
Each data release could move the 56.7% probability up or down by 10 points.
Bitcoin is highly sensitive to US Treasury yields. When rate hike expectations rise, risk assets come under pressure. When rate hike expectations cool, a rebound follows. "70 MU short positions, still open." 💅
Nonfarm payrolls -23,000, Micron surged pre-market then pulled back, followed by a sharp spike down to 874. My short positions went from a floating profit of 7000 to a floating loss, then back to break-even — a rollercoaster ride within one day.
But the logic remains unchanged: rising expectations of rate cuts ≠ guaranteed tech stock rally; the market is trading a "recession" rather than a "rate cut." The storage sector's earnings sell-off hasn't been fully digested yet, Western Digital plunged 13%, SanDisk dropped over 6%, Micron followed down but showed relative resilience, indicating some are buying in the 800-880 range, but no one is willing to push it above 900.
Positions: 70 MU short positions, cost 855.02, stop losses set in batches at 945/965/1030, targets to cover in batches at 870-820.
Take opportunities when the market offers, wait when it doesn't. No betting on direction, only responding.
Copy trading is open, judge for yourself. 🧐
#MU #Micron #ShortSelling #USStocks #ContractTrading【US stocks are rising tonight, so why hasn't the crypto market moved yet?】
Tonight, the real focus isn't on any single coin, but on the US stock market.
US July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, quickly cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. After the data release, US stocks responded immediately at the open: both the Nasdaq and S&P rose.
The normal logic is:
Fed rate hike expectations decrease
→ Pressure on US Treasury yields eases
→ Risk appetite for tech stocks rebounds
→ Risk assets like BTC and ETH benefit
→ Finally, rotation might reach XRP, SOL, and altcoins.
But now there's a very interesting phenomenon:
BTC is still stuck around $64,000–$65,000, unable to rise or fall significantly.
Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs have not seen net outflows this month; the first week of August has already attracted about $754 million in funds. Money is flowing in, but the price hasn't started moving yet.
This is actually what I'm most focused on tonight.
If the Nasdaq continues to strengthen tonight and BTC can break through and hold above $65,000–$66,000, I believe risk appetite in the crypto market could reopen.
But if "US stocks rise, BTC doesn't," then be cautious—it indicates that selling pressure within crypto remains heavy.
As for XRP, I won't blindly buy the dip just because it fell. This week, XRP remains one of the weaker performers among major coins. For a real long opportunity, I'd rather wait for BTC to establish its direction first.
My order of focus tonight is:
First watch the Nasdaq → then BTC → then ETH → finally XRP and altcoins.
If US stocks continue Risk On, this matchstick in crypto might just need someone to light it.
Do you think BTC can leverage the US stock rally tonight to break through $66,000 directly?
#BTC #ETH #XRP #USStocks #Nasdaq #Fed #NonFarmPayrolls #CryptoMarket Let's talk about an interesting topic: The same Shiba Inu dog is seen as completely different species under the regulatory eyes of different countries.
The United States currently has the most subtle attitude. In September last year, the first Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) was listed on Cboe, and in January this year, 21Shares' TDOG also debuted on Nasdaq. The joint framework by the SEC and CFTC in March this year directly classified it as a digital commodity. Note this logic—the US regulators did not say "Dogecoin has value," but rather "It does not constitute a security, so it falls under commodity regulations." This is a typical American approach: they don't judge whether you're funny or not, they just see which department governs you. The combined scale of the two ETFs is only about $20 million; institutions voted against with their wallets, but the gate for entry is indeed open. It can be said that the US is the only country to formally incorporate "jokes" into its regulatory classification system—not relaxing, but co-opting.
Japan follows a whitelist approach. The FSA is very strict; exchanges must be registered, client assets must be stored in cold wallets, and coins that can be listed must pass industry association reviews. $DOGE was included in this whitelist years ago and trades normally on licensed platforms like bitFlyer and Coincheck. Japanese regulators don't care if you're a Meme; they only care about two things: whether custody is secure and whether anti-money laundering measures are effective. Once approved, all coins are treated equally; Dogecoin and Bitcoin have no difference in compliance treatment.
South Korea is even more interesting. DOGE consistently ranks among the top trading volumes on Upbit and Bithumb. With the kimchi premium, Korean retail investors can pull DOGE into an independent market trend. Korean regulators focus on real-name accounts on exchanges and coin listing reviews. They have no special hostility toward Meme coins because the entire market is retail-driven; banning DOGE would mean hurting their own trading volume.
As for China, there is no subtle difference to discuss. After the 924 document, all virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities, whether it's $BTC or $DOGE, a blanket ban with no exceptions.
So, is there any country that relaxes regulation because of its "non-serious" nature? Strictly speaking, no. The real pattern is the opposite: the more mature the market, the less they care about narratives and more about structure. Dogecoin's "joke" persona has never earned it exemptions; every upgrade in treatment it has received is based on liquidity, user base, and a clean compliance record. Regulators don't look at memes; they look at data and risk exposure. This is probably the biggest indirect recognition of DOGE—it is treated as a legitimate asset.📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Update (August 8)
According to liquidation data, in the past 24 hours, shorts have been relentlessly crushed by the whale, but the short-term market is almost at a standstill...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $50.49 $50.49 $0
4 hours $50.49 $50.49 $0
12 hours $50.97 $50.97 $0
24 hours $2,431.20 $50.97 $2,380.23
From the $CORE liquidation data, the market shows almost zero volatility in 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour periods, with liquidation amounts around only $50, indicating extreme liquidity exhaustion. The longs monopolize all liquidations but at a negligible scale; the 24-hour direction suddenly reverses, with shorts liquidated crushing longs. The short liquidation volume is 46.7 times that of longs, triggering a comprehensive short squeeze in the long-term cycle. The whale on CORE has completed a switch from extremely low volatility to a fierce short squeeze—almost no trading in the short term, targeted liquidation of shorts in the long term, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $2400. Although the scale is small, the directional switch is very decisive. Everyone should manage positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Sentiment | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws punished" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a 372% year-over-year surge; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a 557% year-over-year increase.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance—next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Intensify: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP job additions were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Lockup Expiry: A Classic "Bad News Is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% post-earnings plunge on Wednesday had already priced in the lockup pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on lockup day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance is infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Post-Nonfarm Payroll Data Blockchain Market Analysis🔥🔥🔥
Nonfarm result: July nonfarm employment **‑23,000** vs. expected +80,000, previous 57,000; May and June data revised down by a total of 103,000; unemployment rate 4.1%, average hourly earnings declined.
Macro reaction: US dollar index and US Treasury yields dropped sharply; gold surged violently; US stock futures rose, market sharply lowered the probability of further Fed rate hikes, and rate cut expectations increased.
📊 Mainstream coin market performance
1. BTC Bitcoin
Price stabilized above 65,200, short-term rally after data release, breaking above the previous converging triangle upper boundary.
- Support: 64,500, strong support at 63,800; previous resistance turned support after breakout
- Resistance: strong resistance at 66,000, then heavy options resistance at 67,200
- Market characteristics: short-term bullish sentiment opened, but volume did not explode; this is a macro-driven rally, not an internal crypto capital surge, beware of pullback to confirm support after the spike.
2. ETH Ethereum
Strengthened in sync, standing above 1,930, ETH/BTC ratio slightly rising.
- Support: 1,900; strong support at 1,870
- Resistance: 1,970‑1,980
ETH ratio strengthening indicates capital starting to flow outward, a precursor signal for altcoin sector warming up.
3. XAUT Token Gold
Followed physical gold's sharp surge; both safe-haven and risk assets rose simultaneously, reflecting a broad rally driven by liquidity easing expectations.
4. Thematic Altcoins (BICO, DOGE)
BICO continues to pulse riding the market dividend, short-term overbought condition intensifies; DOGE meme sector rebounds but weaker than AA track.
Altcoin characteristics: broad market dividend-driven rally without independent positive catalysts; once BTC pulls back, altcoins will retrace much more than mainstream coins.
🔥 Core market logic breakdown
1. This nonfarm data was a major cold surprise, clearly bullish for risk assets on the macro level
Negative employment growth combined with significant downward revisions to historical data leads the market to price in a further easing of the Fed's high interest rate era; USD and US Treasury yields decline, directly benefiting risk assets like BTC.
Minor contradiction: unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% due to lower labor participation rate, market temporarily ignores this negative detail; if the market reinterprets this indicator later, a pullback may occur.
2. Distinguish: macro-driven ≠ crypto-native bull market
This rally is driven by US employment data, not crypto-specific positives (no large ETF inflows, no major protocol upgrades).
Macro bullishness is the "ignition"; follow-up depends on whether buying volume sustains. Without volume support, the rally may be a pulse spike followed by a pullback and consolidation.
3. Capital flow changes
- Phase 1: BTC leads the rally;
- Phase 2: ETH strengthens, ETH/BTC ratio rises;
- Phase 3: capital flows outward, AA-AI Agent, RWA hot altcoins collectively erupt; MEME sector remains weak.
Currently transitioning from phase two to three.
📈 Three possible scenarios going forward
✅ Optimistic scenario
Hold 64,500 support, break out with volume above 66,000, opening upside space; ETH surpasses 1,970, altcoin sector enters a phase of profitable rally.
⚖️ Neutral (higher probability)
Profit-taking after spike, pullback to 64,500‑64,800 range to confirm support, digest nonfarm short-term gains, then choose direction; altcoins will diverge, strong sectors remain active, weak coins quickly fall back.
❌ Risk scenario
Market re-prices unemployment rate risk, US Treasury yields rebound; BTC breaks below 64,500, returns to range-bound trading, high-level altcoins experience rapid sell-off.
✅ Key signals to watch next
1. Can BTC hold the new 64,500 support without quickly falling back into the previous range?
2. Can ETH/BTC ratio continue rising, determining altcoin rally sustainability?
3. Follow US stock and Treasury yield trends, as macro is the root of this rally;
4. For small caps like BICO that have surged significantly: watch volume; new highs without volume are profit-taking windows.
✍️ Market summary
The major cold surprise in nonfarm data delivers macro bullishness to the crypto market; BTC breaks out of the converging triangle, warming the entire market.
But remember: this is a macro-driven rally, not an internal crypto capital explosion; avoid blindly chasing highs.
64,500 is a new critical dividing line—holding it means continuation; breaking it means the nonfarm dividend quickly fades.
Altcoins benefit from market dividends but will see serious divergence; high-level thematic coins remain very risky.
Steady progress everyone $BTC $ETH $BICO #Bitcoin Market Summary Today (About 200 Words)
On August 7, Bitcoin saw a slight increase, rising about 1.3% over 24 hours, with the price holding above $65,200, breaking out of the recent sideways consolidation pattern. The main driver of this rally was the US July nonfarm payroll data falling significantly short of expectations, leading the market to anticipate a higher probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with expectations of looser liquidity providing positive support for crypto assets. Institutional funds also continued to support the market, as the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for four consecutive days, totaling over $76 billion, stabilizing the market base. However, the short-term upward momentum remains limited, with $66,000 still a strong resistance level, and trading volume has not expanded significantly, reflecting cautious sentiment among retail investors. Looking ahead, if inflation data weakens further and rate cuts materialize, Bitcoin could break through resistance; if data improves, the market will likely return to a range-bound consolidation.#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
There is quite a heated debate within the Federal Reserve right now. On one side, ADP employment data dropped to 44,000, and the ISM services employment index also fell below 50. On the other side, inflation is still hovering above 3.5%, having not been below 2% for over five consecutive years. The two forces are pulling in opposite directions.
Cook voted in favor at the July FOMC meeting, which ended 9-3. At that time, she was still an "observer," but now she has clearly changed her stance. She stated very plainly: the longer inflation stays above target, the greater the risk of it becoming embedded in wages and pricing mechanisms. Under the current circumstances, the Fed has no room to wait. A board member who was originally dovish turning hawkish is more convincing than Kashkari calling for rate hikes.
Williams has also drawn a line: if inflation does not return to 2%, rate hikes are absolutely appropriate. Kashkari was even more forceful, saying that three consecutive rate hikes before the end of the year "are not impossible."
The market is currently pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, a 52% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike in October, and a 17% chance of a 50 basis point hike. In other words, the market believes the probability of action in September is slightly higher than no action.
But employment data is indeed weakening. ADP at 44,000, initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks. The job market still has resilience, but it is marginally cooling down. The question is whether this cooling is enough to bring inflation down.
The Fed’s real dilemma now is that it has failed to meet the inflation target for over five years, and its credibility is eroding. Waller himself admitted there were communication mistakes. A chairperson facing a credibility crisis right after taking office, confronted with inflation above 3.5%, will find it hard to easily say "wait a bit longer."
If next week’s CPI data again exceeds expectations, the probability of a September rate hike could shift from 55% to a sure thing. If CPI meets or falls below expectations, employment data might regain some influence. But at this juncture, betting that the Fed will abandon rate hikes because of one ADP report is unlikely. The political pressure from inflation exceeding targets for five consecutive years outweighs the weight of weak employment data by far.Nonfarm payrolls for July will be announced tonight at 20:30.
The market expects an increase of about 80,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Last month’s actual was 57,000, and the combined revision for April-May was a downward adjustment of 74,000.
Current context:
Federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. 10-year US Treasury yield around 4.67%. Probability of a rate hike in September about 57%. June job openings at 7.359 million, latest initial jobless claims about 199,000.
Three scenarios:
Nonfarm > 100,000-120,000 (unemployment rate stable, wages slightly strong)
Rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields and the dollar rise → high-valuation tech, semiconductors/storage, and crypto under pressure, gold may pull back.
Nonfarm 50,000-90,000 (unemployment rate 4.2%-4.3%, wages stable)
Market’s most favored outcome. Reduced necessity for rate hikes → US Treasury yields and the dollar fall → growth stocks, crypto, and gold all relatively benefit.
Nonfarm near zero or negative growth (unemployment rate ≥ 4.4%)
Recession concerns intensify. US Treasury yields drop sharply, gold benefits, but US stocks and crypto may rise first then fall.
Key observation order:
Nonfarm payroll numbers → prior value revisions → unemployment rate → wages → 2-year/10-year US Treasury yields. $US stock Shopify SHOP price gapped up and surged all the way, soaring 17.0% in a single day, with trading volume sharply expanding, leading the entire internet e-commerce and software sector.
Market sentiment: Strongly bullish
Key signals: Q2 adjusted earnings per share reached $0.42 (beating the expected $0.39), quarterly revenue reached $3.58 billion (a strong year-over-year growth of 25%), merchant GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) and free cash flow margin both significantly exceeded Wall Street's upper limits.
Analysis: Shopify's earnings powerfully dispelled previous market concerns about weak consumption among North American small and medium merchants.
Its built-in AI marketing tool (Shopify Magic) has rapidly increased penetration, effectively enhancing merchant stickiness and monetization rate;
At the same time, the company's cost reduction and efficiency improvements after divesting logistics business have become apparent, enabling it to demonstrate extremely strong free cash flow generation capability in a macro high-interest-rate environment, attracting major funds to buy aggressively.
$SHOP
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $SPCX
Yesterday's performance was quite beyond expectations, opening at 107.09, lowest at 105.11, highest at 115.75, closing at 114.92, up 6.14%. The total volume was 255 million shares, about 2.17 times the 65-day average volume, with the close positioned at 92% of the day's range. This is a fairly standard "large volume turnover with buyers temporarily winning" pattern.
This trend confirms several previous speculations:
1. The unlocking negative impact was indeed mostly priced in advance.
2. Obtaining the qualification to sell does not mean immediate selling.
3. The credibility of the phase bottom near 105 has significantly increased.
More importantly, yesterday's timely release of the news about Texas building the Terafab chip factory helped support the market, and today Grok 4.6 will be released. Previous speculation that Musk intends to manage market value and support a fragile fundamental with narratives has been validated.
The Terafab factory will very likely quickly complete land and plant construction to support the narrative, but according to Musk's usual unpredictability, the yield rate and production stability will likely be repeatedly delayed.
Meanwhile, Trump's midterm elections are about to officially start, and Musk will again fund election campaigns. During this period, some interest exchanges to secure large Department of Defense contracts are expected, and even the subsequent Tesla-SpaceX merger will probably get a green light. Trump also needs "space contracts and American jobs" as pre-election headlines to boost his campaign.
Next, let's look at several ranges:
112—115: If this level holds for the next two or three trading days, it indicates that the unlocking selling pressure has been effectively absorbed.
120: Closing and holding above 120 can officially upgrade the area near 105 to a phase bottom and shift from a "negative fully priced rebound" to trend recovery.
125—130: This is the pre-earnings run-up zone and a large area of trapped positions. Breaking through and holding here indicates that active funds are starting to flow back continuously.
110: If it quickly falls below 110 again with high volume continuing, then 114.92 might have been just a one-day rebound caused by short covering and the Terafab news combined. Employment data fell short of expectations. You can breathe now
The dollar plunged. Gold and silver rose.
U.S. stocks also quickly pulled back.
The reason is simple:
Bad data = reduced pressure for rate hikes.
But here’s a problem.
Poor employment isn’t always a positive.
If the market later starts trading on economic slowdown #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ , the logic will change.
This current rebound is more driven by a weaker dollar.
Not by improved corporate earnings.
So don’t change your judgment just because of the first bullish candle.
Next, watch two things:
Whether the Nasdaq can hold its ground.
Whether the trading volume keeps up.
A true trend reversal isn’t decided by a single candlestick.Looking at today's market, it still favors "selective liquidity" rather than indiscriminate spending. BTC is around $65,186, ETH about $1,625, SOL approximately $77.97; meanwhile, CoinDesk observed that over the past month, altcoin OI dropped about 15%, BTC actually rose about 8%, and the Altcoin Season Index is only 42/100. (CoinDesk)
What does this mean?
Not every project is getting stronger; only a few assets with the most consensus have received new liquidity first.
📉 Altcoin OI is cooling down
📊 Volume remains, but adding positions is more cautious
🧠 Traders no longer chase every pulse but wait for confirmation, relative strength, and higher confidence patterns
🟢 Assets still attracting funds are usually these types:
$BTC — the biggest liquidity magnet
$ETH — the core asset most accessible to institutions
$SOL — high Beta mainline
$DOGE / $WLD / $HYPE — gauges of sentiment and risk appetite
🔴 Struggling ones are often small- and mid-cap altcoins without narrative, volume, or relative strength
The key point of this market cycle is not guessing when the next big green candle will come, but clearly seeing where the money is flowing.
The more selective the market, the more important relative strength becomes.
Don’t chase every green candle; just follow the money flow.(1) SK Hynix (000660.KS) Current Market Trend — Opened High Then Turned Down: On August 7, the Korean stock market surged but then retreated. South Korea's KOSPI index opened at 6,365.07 points in early trading, rising nearly 2% at one point, but then turned downward and closed down 0.6% at 6,258.71 points. SK Hynix opened up 1.74%, but turned from gains to losses within 20 minutes of opening. It closed down 4.88%. At one point, it fell more than 5% intraday. The KOSPI index fell more than 5% this week, marking its seventh consecutive week of decline. Decline driver: Weakness in U.S. storage chip stocks is transmitted through. SanDisk and Western Digital suffered heavy losses due to earnings guidance falling short of expectations, and worsening sentiment in the global memory chip sector directly weighed on SK Hynix. Foreign capital continues to flow out. Due to continued net selling by foreign investors, the South Korean stock market remains under pressure. High beta characteristics. SK Hynix's revenue is concentrated entirely in DRAM and NAND flash, making it much more sensitive to semiconductor industry conditions than the diversified Samsung Electronics, and its decline in this round of memory adjustments was even more steep. Market Background: South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 5% this week, marking the longest weekly losing streak since December 2022. Summary: SK Hynix today experienced a trend of "high open→ then decline → widening losses," with deteriorating sentiment in the global memory chip sector and foreign capital outflows as the core driving factors. The high beta characteristics of pure memory business led to a drop far exceeding Samsung Electronics' decline (-4.88%) (+0.22%). Whether the short-term stabilization can depend on whether the US storage sector can stabilize and changes in foreign capital flowsToday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July nonfarm payroll data, with the market expecting an increase of about 80,000 to 97,000 jobs and the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%.
Last month (June), the actual increase was only 57,000, far below the expected 115,000, which was a big surprise.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $64,000, having been range-bound between $58,000 and $67,000 for a full two months, while ETH is around $1,900, showing relatively strong structure.
This nonfarm data is a key short-term catalyst for the market.
For BTC, the $65,000-$67,000 range is a resistance zone that must be broken through; for ETH, $1,950-$2,000 is the short-term ceiling.
Volatility will increase before and after the data release, so it is recommended to manage positions carefully and avoid heavy bets on direction. #