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#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? "S&P Hits Another Record High: Liquidating to Wait for a Pullback May Be the Costliest Decision in August"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 93
Aspirin · A Data Scientist’s Perspective on Cyclical Analysis
The S&P 500 closed last night at 7,736.52 points, up 1.8%, hitting another all-time high; the year-to-date gain is about 13%. I did not chase the rally last night, nor did I liquidate my core index positions. The risk of a pullback in the second half of the year remains, but a properly sized pullback could still settle above today’s level.
BTC is still hovering around 64.4K. I’m reserving new funds for the S&P’s pullback range, leaving only two BTC contract alerts at 63.5K and 69.2K. Here’s a calculation many haven’t seriously considered.
1. A 10% drop doesn’t necessarily give you a lower buying point
Assuming the S&P rises 12% from 7,736.52 points and then pulls back 10%: 7,736.52 × 1.12 × 0.90 = 7,798.41. The pullback sounds large, but the level is still 0.8%#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Behind the 120-point rise in Catcat, someone is quietly moving other money
The most lively post in the group today was that CASHCAT had risen 120% in a week, with screenshots flooding several screens, and the captions all sounded like the cat had returned.
I'm pouring cold water on this. This cat's current market value is about $86 million, which sounds impressive, but in mid-July, its peak was around 0.2 yuan, and now it's still far from there. A 120% increase in one week is real, but it's just climbing up from a deeper pit, not a new high. With the same price increase, if you look back from the same level, the conclusion is completely different.
The truly interesting content is hidden in the latter half of the same message, and basically no one shares it.
Robinhood Chain's total locked value is now $774 million, up 20% in seven days. It's not Cat Chain that's driving it up, but the protocols Morpho and Ethena. One is lending, the other is synthetic dollars—both are things with little story to tell but are dealing with real money.
What's even more worth pondering is another point. The hype for new token launches on this chain has cooled significantly compared to the July peak, but stablecoin scale, tokenized real assets, and on-chain deposits are still on the road.
To put it simply, there are fewer people at the gambling table, while more people at the bank counter.
This structural change is useful for traders. When this chain was hot, money mainly circulated in memes—coming in quickly and leaving fast. Whoever reacted a second was the one who took over. Now money is sinking into lending and stablecoins. This group of funds doesn't chase hot trends, aiming for yields, which are much more sticky than memes. But with this foundation on the chain, meme volatility is actually more amplified, because more money can be lent out, making leverage easier.
So the order I read this message is exactly the opposite of what I read in the group. Cat's 120% increase is the result, not the reason. The reason is that the chain's wallet has thickened: 774 million locked plus 322 million DEX trading volume over the past 24 hours, ranking fifth across all chains. At this time, memes in thin stocks can be pushed up with a bit of buying pressure, and likewise, a little selling pressure can break a pit.
If I really want to touch these kinds of coins, I usually ask myself three silly questions. Is the 24-hour turnover enough for this coin to exit my position unscathed? Is there something supporting this rally? If it halves tomorrow, will I be forced to move my BTC position? If I can't answer any one of these three questions, then this money isn't what I should be making.
There's nothing new in the market; BTC is still grinding around 64,000 to 65,000, the 200-week moving average at 63,657 just broke up, but volume hasn't kept up. The main rally hasn't started; altcoins just move money back and forth in the stock. What you make on this cat is mostly someone else's loss on another.
Let me ask, did you enter with 120% or to lock up 774 million? Of these two reasons for entering, which do you think lasts longer?#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
我的感受是，闪迪的管理层在说：我们不仅业绩爆炸，而且现金流充足。我们有信心继续增长。
但是，也要注意一个细节。
虽然财报很漂亮，但股价在财报公布后还是下跌了。这说明市场已经对好的财报定价了。
或者说，市场在担心未来的增长是否能持续。因为372%的增长是一个非常高的基数。未来的增长率会下降。
所以我认为，闪迪的股价已经反映了很多好的预期。
现在的问题是，闪迪能否继续保持这样的增长速度。如果增长速度放缓，股价就会下跌。
但是，140亿美元的回购授权是一个很强的信号。
这说明管理层对未来充满信心。他们愿意用这么大的金额来回购股票。
这通常意味着，管理层认为股票的长期价值被低估了。
闪迪的财报和回购授权都是很强的信号。但市场已经对这些信号定价了。现在的问题是，闪迪能否继续保持这样的增长速度。如果能，股价会继续上升。如果不能，股价会下跌$SNDK 营收暴增372%，盘后暴跌8%——华尔街终于对AI存储说“不够了”
看着闪迪财报——营收89.7亿美元，同比暴增372%，比市场预期高了整整4.3%。调整后EPS 39.25美元，是去年同期的135倍。毛利率84.6%，比预期还高了3个百分点。
公司还甩出140亿美元回购计划，剩余总回购授权达到155亿美元。
一觉醒来，闪迪盘后暴跌8%，常规时段已经跌了5.4%——一天跌掉一个中等科技公司。
整个人都懵了。
8月5日，AI存储的定价逻辑，在一夜之间彻底变了。
以前市场看什么？看营收、看利润、看毛利率。闪迪数据中心业务暴增1298%，边缘计算涨392%——全是利好。
但现在，华尔街的眼神变了。
他们盯着一个东西：下一季度的指引。
闪迪预计下季度营收103亿到108亿美元，中值105.5亿——比分析师预期的111.6亿低了5.5%。
EPS指引44到46美元，市场预期45.58美元。毛利率指引83%到85%，环比基本持平——有见顶迹象。
“好业绩反杀”——你过去越猛，市场对你的未来要求就越高。
这就是2026年8月5日的华尔街新剧本。
说句扎心的话：市场已经不再为“过去”买单了，他们只买“未来”。
闪迪2026财年全年营收202.5亿美元，同比增长175%。GAAP净利润114.3亿美元，去年还亏16.4亿。
从亏钱到赚114亿，只用了一年。
够猛了吧？
不够。
高盛直言：“市场预期已经隐含了‘完美执行+持续超预期’的假设，任何回归正常轨道的指引都会被解读为负面信号。”
什么意思？
你考了99分，但市场预期是100分——你就是不及格。
更狠的是，闪迪不是个例。
西部数据同日发财报，盘后直接暴跌超11%。两大存储巨头一天之内蒸发几百亿市值。
Roundhill Financial的CEO说得更直白：
“存储行业基本面处于过去十年最佳水平，但市场已经提前反映了。如果业绩和指引没有明显超出预期，可能难以满足市场要求。”
翻译成人话：你把车开到了200码，现在油门踩到底也只能维持200码——但后排的乘客喊着要250码。
但有个细节，很多人忽略了。
闪迪手里握着8份NBM长期协议，保底收入939亿美元。2027财年过半产能、2028财年三分之二产能已经提前锁定。
这是NAND行业第一次有公司能看四年以上的需求能见度。
而且——马斯克亲自出来喂定心丸：AI存储需求增速是供应的十倍。
所以问题不是“AI存储有没有需求”。
问题是：市场已经把“有需求”这个事实，定价定到天上去了。
别再用“财报超预期”来安慰自己了。
这个财报季，市场只认一件事：你下一季度还能不能继续超预期。
闪迪7月已经跌了47%，市值蒸发超1500亿美元。昨晚再跌8%。
那些看着“暴增372%”就冲进去的人，现在大概已经哭完了。
但有一件事已经确定了——
AI存储这个赛道，已经从“谁在受益”的阶段，
进入了“谁能持续受益”的阶段。
前者看过去，后者看未来。
而华尔街，从来只交易未来。
$BTC $SNDK $SPCX #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 营收：89.7亿美元，高于市场预期约84.8亿美元；同比增长约372%。
调整后EPS：39.25美元，高于预期约34.96美元。
数据中心业务表现非常强劲，受益于AI基础设施需求增长，数据中心收入同比大幅提升。
毛利率提升明显，显示闪存价格、供应结构以及产品组合正在改善。
为什么股价没有大涨？
主要原因不是业绩不好，而是市场预期非常高。闪迪今年股价此前已经大幅上涨，投资者开始关注下一阶段增长速度。公司对于下一季度的指引虽然保持强劲，但部分指标略低于市场极高预期，因此盘后出现调整。
从长期逻辑来看，我依然偏看好 #SNDK。
AI时代最大的变化，不只是GPU需求增加，更重要的是背后的存储需求正在升级。数据中心、云计算、大模型训练都需要更高容量、更高性能的存储方案，而闪迪正处于这一产业趋势中。
市场短期可能会因为预期差产生波动，但真正值得关注的是公司的盈利能力改善、AI存储需求增长以及长期订单布局。
我的观点是，财报后的回调更多属于情绪消化，而不是基本面转弱。只要AI基础设施投资周期持续，闪迪仍然具备长期成长价值。In one quarter, 288 tons of gold were swept up by the central bank, and you're still waiting for the coin to rise
US July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, while the market was originally waiting for around 70,000. After the data came out, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell together, and spot gold briefly rebounded above $4,300, reaching a new high since early July. At the same time, BTC was still trading back and forth between 64,000 and 65,000.
Both so-called anti-inflation items hit new highs, while others just went in circles. This split has been going on for a while, so it's worth seriously discussing where the money actually went.
Let's start with the hardest part. According to the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 2026, global central banks will net purchase 288.9 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 62%, the highest for the same period in history. This is not retail investor sentiment; it is the reserve management departments of various countries allocating assets, with decision cycles measured by years, and once started, it's hard to reverse midway. After 13 years, the Bank of Korea has resumed gold purchases, not only allocating gold ETFs but also planning to establish a mechanism to buy domestic physical gold. This kind of action isn't called short-term trading; it's about rewriting gold back into the reserve list.
The second part is capital flow. China's gold ETFs have seen net inflows for 14 consecutive trading days, marking the longest consecutive inflow since March this year. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has re-entered a premium against London gold, indicating that spot demand in Asia is truly improving, rather than just the attractive quotes on paper.
The third is the anticipatory reversal. A day ago, CME's odds showed a more than 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, marking the first time this round has bet on a rate hike of more than half. As soon as the ADP figure was released, expectations for rate hikes cooled down. The same issue gets two answers every day. This is the real state of macro trading right now. No one is certain, and the market is waiting for the non-farm payrolls to set the tone.
What does this mean for us? BTC has been torn between two logics in recent years: one calling it digital gold, the other calling it a high-beta tech stock. This round of performance gave a straightforward answer: the money on safe havens recognizes consensus spanning thousands of years, not narratives spanning over a decade. When gold surged and BTC didn't keep up, it means the market currently categorizes BTC as a risk asset, standing on the same side as Nasdaq.
So how do you use this data in trading? My approach is to add an indicator to watch: the ratio of gold to BTC. This phase of continuous rising ratios indicates that safe-haven funds are still leaving crypto, liquidity on the countercoins side will tighten, swing space will be squeezed, and positions will need to be lighter. Conversely, if one day gold holds sideways and BTC starts to chase, that would be a signal that funds are willing to take risks again.
The market is still the same old three. The 200-week moving average of 63,657 just broke through, which is the average cost line for buyers over the past four years. It did so, but volume didn't keep up. On Coinglass, 67341 has a 1.437 billion short position, and below 61445, a 1.6 billion long position is pressing down. Now, it's closer to going up to the wall. Coinbase's premium remains at -0.11, marking 79 consecutive days of negative losses, with spot buying in the US still unrecovered.
Looking at the long term, central banks' gold purchases and BTC's institutionalization are actually two sides of the same coin—both are alternatives to traditional reserves that don't rely on a single credit. But gold was already at the front of the queue, while BTC was still waiting at the door for a number to be called. This order is hard to change in the short term, but the fact that the queue itself means the door is open.
Just asking, have you allocated gold or tokenized gold in your current position? If the money used for safe-haven funds still only recognizes gold, what will you rely on to get out of your currency?Currently, $ALGO faces a supply-demand mismatch between a high valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 1,500 times and a protocol annualized revenue of only $2 million, with its price structure at a critical range of high suppression and downward defense.
Market data shows the current circulating market cap is about $3 billion, with a fully diluted value as high as $4.2 billion. The corresponding 1500x price-to-sales ratio indicates that the current token price has severely overloaded long-term expectations. The 24-hour trading volume of $80 million is difficult to absorb the marginal selling pressure from high-valuation areas due to the lack of a deflationary burn mechanism, and the overall trend is suppressed by the accumulation of tokens at high levels.
The core factors dominating this price structure are, in order: token dilution effect from the absence of buyback and burn mechanisms, the expected unlock pressure of 3.50% of current circulation in Q4 2026, and the efficiency of institutional RWA implementation in converting on-chain fees.
The trigger for the upside scenario is that institutional RWA usage on the chain expands beyond expectations, or the protocol layer passes the token burn mechanism in advance. If protocol treasury revenue breaks through the $2 million baseline and accelerates upward, the price is likely to break above the current upper boundary of the volatility, seeking liquidity space that matches fully diluted valuations; This script fails signal: 24-hour trading volume continuously falls below $80 million and on-chain activity stagnates.
The trigger conditions for a downward scenario are the release of high price-to-sales corrective pressure combined with shrinking market liquidity. When the $3 billion circulating market cap cannot be supported by on-chain revenue, the price may move downward in search of valuation anchors, triggering a 30% to 50% structural correction; This scenario fails signaling the emergence of large-scale enterprise-level paid settlement scenarios on-chain.
The critical point for judging the failure of the overall bearish structure lies in protocol fees multiplying the price, pushing the price-to-sales ratio directly to the industry central level.
Over the next 7 days, focus on monitoring whether the 24-hour trading volume can stay above $80 million, as well as the marginal changes in weekly protocol fees and treasury revenue.
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效, the boundaries between transactions and payments are clearly defined, #谷歌AI高层重组 the loss of core talent draws attention to #CLARITY法案推进受阻, and Senate divisions widenThe probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is 54.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 45.6%.
44,000 jobs vs. 3.7% inflation: The Fed is on the scorch, BTC is waiting for an answer
Yesterday, ADP data came out—only 44,000 new private sector jobs were added in July.
That's nearly half the expected 75,000. This is even more than the 95,000 yuan after the June revision. marking the weakest performance since January this year.
The commodity production department directly reduced 3,000 positions. The employment engine is visibly stalling.
Employment data is shouting: Stop! Stop raising interest rates!
But inflation data is shouting: Increase! Keep adding!
In June, the PCE inflation rate rose 3.7% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target. Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook bluntly stated that if inflation data does not improve, she is ready to support rate hikes. Kansas City Fed President Schmid was even more aggressive, saying that current monetary policy is "not restrictive" and that tighter measures are needed to keep inflation back down to 2%.
The employment card is called pause, the inflation card is called up.
The Federal Reserve is on the scorched side.
Rate hikes → suppress inflation→ but could kill jobs entirely.
No interest rate hikes → jobs will be saved→ but inflation will become a chronic disease.
Whichever side you choose, someone gets hurt.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash said on July 30 that "there is no conflict between the dual missions."
But the data is clear—employment is collapsing, inflation is high. You say there's no conflict?
The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is 54.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 45.6%.
Evenly split fifty-fifty.
The market itself doesn't know which side to bet on. This is extremely rare in the history of the Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson and Kashkari expressed completely opposite views on the same day. One said to add, the other said no.
The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are even greater than the market itself.
BTC is trading sideways near $64,000. On Tuesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $211.5 million—BlackRock alone made $170 million.
Institutions are buying, and real money is pouring in.
But the price just won't break through.
Why? Macro uncertainty makes retail investors hesitant to follow.
Institutions are bottom-fishing, while retail investors are watching and waiting. An inflow of 210 million cannot drive up the price—this was unimaginable six months ago.
In the next two weeks, the market will repeatedly swing between two logics:
Logic 1: Weak employment→ no rate hikes→ risk assets rise
Logic Two: Stubborn inflation continues to → intensify→ risk assets fall
Friday's nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI—every data point will make this pointer swing wildly.
Get ready for a roller coaster.🛢 原油血崩 -11.78% — 停火把通胀溢价一把挤光了
- 短线：KDJ极致超卖 + 0.786支撑 → 反弹需求强烈，$78-80是第一个考验——反弹到那就得看是真金白银在买还是空头回补的假把式
- 中线：停火如果落地，原油可能还要往$69(VAL)甚至$61(前低)去——供应恢复+需求没起来，原油的基本面故事已经变了
- 对BTC：油价暴跌本身是通胀降温的利好，但BTC目前自身动能不足（RSI 47·MACD零轴下），需要先解决自己的结构问题才能接住宏观的接力棒。关注$67,315(0.618 Fib) — BTC站上去才算真正接入"弱美元+降温"的共振逻辑凌晨说的全中。SPCX拉高诱多，130就是出货顶，今天砸回110，开仓价又回来了。今晚9:30首期解锁，恐慌盘必砸，100-105是大概率，盘中急跌会有人抄底，但别格局。关键是解禁不止这一波，8月20、9月9，后面还有，供给持续压顶。中线看，跌破两位数只是时间问题，大概率9月前后。操作就一条：今晚深V反抽减仓，别扛，后面有更低点接回来。
$BTC $ETH $SPCX
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Fundamental Research Report $ALGO / Algorand (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
To put it plainly: Algorand ($ALGO) has an overall score of 60/100, with a rating that narrative emphasizes practical application. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Fundamental Analysis: Algorand (token $ALGO), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on pure PoS and institutional RWA. Benchmarked against ADA and ETH. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Algorand $3.00B, ADA undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. For FDV, Algorand $4.20B, ADA undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Algorand is $2.00M, ADA is undisclosed, ETH is undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Algorand has not disclosed this, ADA has not been disclosed, and ETH has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To wrap up: solid fundamentals (rating 60/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
That's all for now. See you next time.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit3. SpaceX unlocks plunged 13.61%: The largest unlocking of restricted shares in history, with market value shrinking by over $100 billion. Dragging down global tech stock sentiment, Nvidia bucked the trend and rose, with funds clustering around certain earnings targets. Pressure to unlock shares has become a core short-term variable for tech stocks.8.6 日内深度复盘｜非农前夕三件大事：黄金结构转多，ETH巨鲸屯货，BTC日线反转
黄金破位、ETH吸筹、BTC等非农——三重信号指向同一个方向
ETH3.6亿机构级吸筹，聪明钱卡情绪低点建仓
链上事实：同一实体4个多签钱包，48小时内从FalconX、Galaxy Digital、BitGo接收 101,131 ETH（约3.63亿美元），无即时转出。
三个关键细节
机构级OTC/托管流出 → 不是散户碎单。
接收后不抛 → “屯”不是“倒”。
时间点卡在BTC 6.4万摩擦、市场喊“牛没了”的纠结期，类似ETF获批前窗口。
叙事叠加：Bitwise CIO称SEC“Project Crypto”演讲是五年路线图，ETH/L1/DeFi尚未充分定价 → 机构提前卡位监管拐点。
BTC：非农定方向，64500是分水岭
盘面：BTC重回64000–64500，日线低位反转+踩中轨，本周反弹约2000点；前高/强压在 66300–66500。
多空路径
非农继续弱（就业少）→ 加息预期再降 → BTC看64500上看66300，概率偏大；原64200–64500空单应止损。
非农强 → 收益率拉升 → 假突破回打，66500前高反成最保险空点。
中期天花板：通胀与高利率不解除，“不跌也涨不高”，难走单边疯牛。
黄金：压几个月的下行结构被往上打，偏多但不等于无脑追
现状：现货黄金约4246–4265美元/盎司，单日涨超4%，近7周高位，4260上方高位震荡。
为什么突然强（宏观+结构共振）
美债收益率下行：10Y约4.61%、2Y约4.20%，持有黄金机会成本降低。
美元走弱：美元指数破100至99.7附近，非美买盘成本降低。
美伊缓和+油价跌：霍尔木兹重开预期压住通胀预期，市场不再押美联储继续加息。
ADP仅4.4万（预期7万），就业走弱 → 加息概率从约70%降至约56%。
技术面：5个月下行通道+CTA空头堆积，破4200触发空头回补逼空，不是纯基本面买盘。
真正大考：周五7月非农。若就业强+收益率拉升 → 这波突破易被打回；若继续弱 → 偏多结构延续。
美联储困局：不敢加也不敢松，利率锁在3.75%的原因
撕裂数据：
就业端：ADP连续走弱、非农增量递减 → 喊“别再加”。
物价端：PCE/CPI仍在3.3%高位 → 喊“必须加”。
加vs松的后果
加息：抑通胀但美元强、就业更差、风险资产（BTC）跌。
降息：通胀顽固化、美元购买力降，资金跑向BTC/黄金，但物价反噬。
结论：半年不动3.75%，不是“稳”，是双向风险都不敢接。
一句话串起来
ETH是机构卡监管拐点的闷声吸筹，BTC卡在64500等周五非农选边，黄金是“弱就业+弱美元+逼空”的宏观反弹——美联储不敢动，所以所有资产都在拿数据赌方向。
以上为技术面推演，不构成投资建议，合约注意严控仓位与止损。$BTC $ETH On the US side, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AMD have been swinging quite a bit these days. Be sure to control your positions. Don't get carried away by bulls or bears—just follow the rhythm and ride the waves.
On the counterfeiter side, my strategy is to wait for the rebound to lighten positions and test shorts; chasing long positions can easily hit the peak.
$BICO, $HMSTR, $RESOLV, $GRVT, $ACT, $SAHARA, $LIT, $GRASS, $PEPE, $BONK, $WIF, $FLOKI, $SHIB these value coins all rebound to bear.only records how prices validate judgments.
I’m not chasing new highs now, nor paying shorting costs prematurely for a pullback that hasn’t started. Positions stay in the trend, cash waits for price.
Data notes: S&P 500 closing data as of August 4, 2026; historical pullback dates and magnitudes based on S&P 500 daily data; Fed meeting dates from the official FOMC calendar; OKX product rules from the unified tokenized stock spot official description. BTC real-time prices and condition ranges as of August 5, 2026. This is personal research and conditional trading plan, not investment advice.
#XSPY #SPX #BTC #USStocks #Bitcoin #OKX #RiskManagement #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 "S&P Hits Another Record High: Liquidating to Wait for a Pullback May Be the Costliest Decision in August"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 93
Aspirin · A Data Scientist’s Perspective on Cyclical Analysis
The S&P 500 closed last night at 7,736.52 points, up 1.8%, hitting another all-time high; the year-to-date gain is about 13%. I did not chase the rally last night, nor did I liquidate my core index positions. The risk of a pullback in the second half of the year remains, but a properly sized pullback could still settle above today’s level.
BTC is still hovering around 64.4K. I’m reserving new funds for the S&P’s pullback range, leaving only two BTC contract alerts at 63.5K and 69.2K. Here’s a calculation many haven’t seriously considered.
1. A 10% drop doesn’t necessarily give you a lower buying point
Assuming the S&P rises 12% from 7,736.52 points and then pulls back 10%: 7,736.52 × 1.12 × 0.90 = 7,798.41. The pullback sounds large, but the level is still 0.8% higher than today. Even if it rises 8% and then falls 10%, the index only returns to about 7,520 points, a discount of just 2.8%.
"Waiting for a 10% pullback" is not a complete strategy. Those liquidating to wait must correctly guess the top, the timing of the pullback, and the re-entry point. Near all-time highs, there is little trapped supply, trend capital remains, and the market can easily clear out premature shorts before completing the expected correction.
2. In three midterm election years, risks heat up in late summer
In the past three U.S. midterm years, the S&P’s second-half rhythm was indeed similar: in 2014, it peaked around September 19, pulled back about 10%, and bottomed in mid-October; in 2018, weakness began around September 21, with a roughly 20% correction lasting until December; in 2022, the local high came earlier on August 16, with the low still waiting until mid-October.
The sample size is only three, and 2022 was still a bear market, so this year shouldn’t be seen as a replay. History provides a risk window: earliest mid-August, more commonly #ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified
The ADP data is out: 44,000, far below the expected 70,000. For the first two months, it was around 98,000 or 95,000 yuan, but this month it's been cut in half. The ISM services employment sub-item also fell below 50, marking the fourth contraction in the past five months.
Looking at the total volume alone, this data indeed tells the market that "employment is cooling down." The logic chain is straightforward—weak employment weakens confidence in raising interest rates. BTC briefly surged to 64,500, and the US Dollar Index was also falling.
But if you only see this layer, you might miss another signal.
Look at the service industry. Of the 44,000 new items, the service sector accounted for 47,000, and goods production was negative. Leisure and catering lost 11,000 yuan, and trade transportation cost 8,000 yuan. Finance and professional services are still adding staff. People are moving from the consumer side to the financial side, indicating that the logic that "high interest rates are eroding terminal demand" is becoming reality.
Look at the salary. Those who stayed on saw a 4.4% increase, while those who switched jobs rose by 7%. Companies are hiring fewer people, but the cost of recruiting them keeps rising. If wages go up, it's hard for service prices to go down. If inflation in the service sector continues to be pushed upward, the cooling will not be as rapid.
Let's look at the Fed's internal affairs. Kashkari and Cook are inclined to raise rates as early as September; Paulson says we need to wait and see the data; Williams says if inflation doesn't come down, action is needed. Three directions, completely different from the same channel.
Kashkari put it most bluntly—"No call for large rate hikes, but stay open." This means: add it to the point of adding it, just don't go too fast. This divergence is more important than the data itself.
The data is dovish, with the probability of rate hikes rising from 80% to 56%. But wage and services still have two hidden pitfalls, so it's unlikely the Fed will completely pivot just because of an ADP.
After the news broke, BTC surged to 64,500, but this level is just a few dozen dollars away from the previous high. If the nonfarm payrolls also weaken on Friday and rate cut expectations are confirmed, BTC may be able to move upward. If the nonfarm payroll surprise is strong, today's bullish candlestick is just a false breakout in short-term sentiment.
The key is non-farm payrolls. ADP can only tell one thing—the market is moving in the same direction, not just having a direction. $BTC #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀【市场正在交易什么？】 ElizaOS代币因创始人宣布项目“死亡”，剩余金库已全部转移用于代币持有者诉讼和解，且后续项目开发不再关联任何加密货币，单日暴跌19%创历史新低，市场正在集中抛售该AI代理概念相关代币。 【真正值得关注的是】 本次事件核心是项目方 treasury 处置引发的信任崩塌，并非赛道基本面恶化，暂未对大盘形成明显联动影响。 【未来48小时观察】 需关注ElizaOS是否会出现进一步清算抛压，以及AI代理赛道其他相关代币是否会被短期情绪连带影响，同时留意后续诉讼进展的公开信息。 #BTC #ETHGold surged 4% in one day, climbing back above $4,200.
BTC, however, barely moved. My judgment:
**It's not that BTC has lost its 'digital gold' logic, but rather that the market doesn't treat the two as the same type of trading at all. **
This round of gold rally is very straightforward:
The US dollar weakened.
U.S. Treasury yields declined.
Funds repurchased defensive assets.
But BTC is now facing a different logic:
ETF funds are not strong enough.
Participation in the crypto market is relatively low.
There was no significant return of venture capital.
So don't just ask when gold prices rise:
"Why doesn't BTC follow you?"
Many people buying gold now are doing so to reduce risk.
BTC buyers still need stronger risk appetite and liquidity.
This is the biggest difference between the two.
My view:
Gold breaking above 4200 is a strong signal.
But for BTC, what is truly worth watching is not gold.
Instead: **When will the funds be willing to take on risk again? **
If the following arises in the future:
The US dollar continues to weaken
+
U.S. Treasury yields declined
+
BTC ETFs continue to flow in steadily again
Only then will BTC truly take over.
So I wasn't surprised at all that gold rose first this time.
What's really interesting is:
**If gold keeps rising while BTC remains unmoved, it means the market is now seeking "safe haven," not "risk-taking." **
Do you think BTC will catch up, or will gold continue to stand strong on its own?
$BTC $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? Today's $BTC ETF data is crucial.
IBIT withdrew 5,073.95 BTC, about $327 million, from Coinbase Prime in the past day.
When I look at this kind of data, I don't just look at the inflow and outflow itself,
What I'm more concerned about is whether institutions have truly moved BTC from a "custody state" to a "holding" state.
Because once continuous withdrawals begin, it means the funds want not just short-term trading, but longer-term allocation.
This is also what I have always thought is BTC's strength:
It now increasingly resembles a formal position on an institution's balance sheet, rather than simply a highly volatile asset.BTC 最新 $64,921，24h +0.89%，从 8/3 的 $62,250 低点上来到现在 $64,600—$64,900 一带，站上了 6.4 万、试探 6.5 万 。我现货底仓不动，这个位置不加仓也不减仓，合约空仓——我的判断是中性偏谨慎。
为什么不敢追？这次反弹的驱动很清晰：ETF 两日净流入超 3.3 亿（8/4 +2.115 亿、8/5 +1.215 亿，IBIT 占 1.7 亿+）、美伊霍尔木兹通航谈判推进压住油价、通胀预期降温 。但内部抛压没消：Coldcard 钱包漏洞累计损失扩到 $130M / 7,700+ 地址，Strategy（原 MicroStrategy）7/27—8/2 卖了 1,638 BTC、均价 $63,957，远低于其 $75,419 的成本 。ETF 买、内部人卖，这是筹码交换不是单边吸筹。
技术面上，6.4 万今天必须日线收稳，上方压力 $65,250 / $67,100，破 6.35 万看 6.25 万 。本周真正的定价核心是周五 20:30 非农（预期 +8 万，失业率 4.3%）——数据 moderate，BTC 有路径冲 6.5 万+；数据强，6.2 万就是陷阱门 。
我反对"ETF 回流 + 突破 6.5 万 = 牛市第二脚踹开"的主流简化叙事。这是宏观事件（霍尔木兹 + 非农预热）驱动的技术性 relief rally，不是趋势反转 。真正的反转确认需要：①非农不能爆表 ②6.5 万日线收稳三天以上 ③Coldcard 事件平息、Strategy 停止减持。三个条件现在一个都没坐实。
我的实盘：现货 6.1 万成本底仓拿死，6.5 万上方不追，6.35 万日线破位减 1/3 防 6.25 万，6.25 万附近挂买单接回。
BTC 在 6.5 万门口，你们是追、是等周五非农、还是 6.35 万破位就跑？ $SNDK: In the short term, it is still in the daily rebound phase. Yesterday during the day, it broke through the daily boll middle band at 1355 (now 1366), then turned bullish, but the bears were killed. The daily BOLL middle band has not been broken since mid-July. This time it has been broken, showing strong momentum, confirming that the 1000 round number mark is a psychological market threshold. It will not be broken in the short term, and any further dip in the future will only be a weak break. The 1036 bottom-fishing attempt on Monday failed to catch it; the needle quickly closed up at 1124, which was quite a pity. Therefore, in the short term, focus on buying on dips. Similarly, only after breaking below 1360 on the short term will the market turn bearish. After breaking below 1360, the daily golden cross will disperse and weaken, with the lowest pullback to 1192 (a variable).
There was only a one-hour bearish divergence during the day, so I shorted at 1478 and exited after a pullback to 1446.
The trend reversal point is at 1520. If this is broken, the weekly MACD will give a stop signal, triggering a 5-day rebound at the moving average level. The medium-term trend could rebound as high as 700-850 points (starting at 972). If it breaks through 1520 and the bullish candle on the right surpasses the bearish candle next to it, it will push 972 down to a short-term low, so the trend reversal (just a medium-term trend, does not mean SanDisk's entire bear market is over). The first breakout near 1500 is a hollow breakout; 1508 is the first Fibonacci point (0.382) in the 2375-972 major wave, usually accompanied by pullbacks. The second time he came up, he looked for another breakthrough.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
$BTC According to normal logic, with high interest rates, soaring US Treasury yields, geopolitical conflicts, ETF capital outflows, and tight liquidity, these factors in past cycles would have likely caused BTC to crash even harder. But this time, it has never experienced a true panic sell-off.
I don't think this is necessarily the absolute bottom; it’s possible that the price could fall below $60,000 or even a bit further. However, I believe this is more like a mid-to-long-term bottom range rather than a specific bottom price.
The reason is simple: those who really want to sell have mostly sold, while long-term funds, ETFs, and institutional funds from listed companies are continuously absorbing chips. The market's cost center has clearly risen, and BTC's bottom is gradually moving up with institutional entry. Data shows that a single price point of $63,000 has accumulated 1.15 million BTC, which is extremely rare historically.
There’s no need to guess the lowest point; instead, gradually build positions within the bottom range; keep buying as it falls, increase positions during crashes, and extend the time horizon to three to five years. Catch the fish body between the head and tail; the real profit-makers are those who dare to buy bit by bit in the bottom area when others are panicking.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Why did SanDisk's stock price drop despite its earnings beating expectations?
Last night, SanDisk $SNDK released a very strong earnings report. FY2026 Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, exceeding market expectations, and adjusted EPS was $39.25, significantly surpassing forecasts. At the same time, the company added a $14 billion buyback authorization, with AI storage demand still being the core growth driver.
However, the market did not respond positively, and the stock price fell after hours.
Now the market is no longer just looking at whether the performance is good, but whether it can continue to beat expectations.
The earnings are strong, but expectations are even higher.
SanDisk is benefiting from the AI infrastructure boom.
AI servers and data center expansions require a large amount of high-speed storage, which is the core reason behind SanDisk's explosive performance.
But the problem is, the AI storage market has already risen a lot over the past year, and the market has priced in future growth in advance.
So now investors are focusing not only on:
Is there AI demand?
But also
How long can AI demand last?
Can profit margins continue to improve?
I believe this drop is more like a valuation adjustment, not the end of the AI logic.
The entire AI industry is entering its second phase.
Previously, the market was hyping Nvidia GPUs; now it is starting to look for truly profitable segments, such as storage, power, data centers, and network equipment.
This earnings report actually proves one thing:
AI infrastructure demand has not cooled down.
But the market will become increasingly selective in the future; just telling the AI story is no longer enough, real revenue and profits must be seen.
What’s next?
▶️ In the short term, SanDisk may continue to fluctuate, as the previous gains have been substantial and capital needs to digest profits.
▶️ In the medium to long term, if data center demand continues to grow and long-term orders keep increasing, SanDisk will remain an important beneficiary of AI storage.
🪁 But the risks are also obvious.
Once cloud providers start slowing AI capital expenditures, the first to be affected will be these high-valuation supply chain companies.
So this drop in SanDisk’s stock price is more like the market moving from speculating on expectations to focusing on realization.
The AI rally is not over yet, but the difficulty is increasing.
Not investment advice DYOR #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
I believe the divergence between gold and Bitcoin this time precisely shows that in the face of real macro risks, the market still views Bitcoin as a "high-risk tech stock" rather than a "safe-haven asset."
On August 5, gold broke through $4,200 intraday, COMEX futures closed at $4,245.8, and silver also broke below $62.
The logic behind this is very strong: US July ADP employment only increased by 44,000, far below expectations.
As soon as the data came out, the US dollar and US Treasury yields immediately retreated, and funds instinctively flocked to gold, the traditional safe haven.
But what about Bitcoin? It's still hovering between $64,000 and $65,000, not following the price at all.
This is quite interesting: the long-standing narrative of "digital gold" has actually failed in this typical risk-averse rally.
My previous judgment was that as soon as the Fed cuts rates and liquidity floods, BTC will fly along with XAU.
But reality proved him wrong, because current capital is very smart and cautious.
When trading "recession expectations," their preferred choice is gold, which has the highest certainty, rather than the highly volatile BTC.
When I opened my position last month, I originally planned to allocate 10% of my BTC as a hedge, but after seeing the ADP data, I switched to a gold ETF instead.
The current market environment is: bad news is bad news, not good news.
Poor employment means the economy may suffer a hard landing. At this point, who dares to use highly volatile crypto assets as a safe haven?
So, don't be brainwashed by the slogan of "digital gold."
In the face of major macroeconomic turmoil, BTC remains a growth stock with high beta value, not a safe-haven asset.
Only when the economy achieves a soft landing and liquidity floods again can it take over from gold and continue its rally.Yesterday, Google plunged sharply because another AI titan left, showing that most people still didn't understand Google.
Google, Microsoft, and Meta don't rely on large model capabilities as their moat. They don't need to build top-tier models like A and O—a 70-point model is enough. Most importantly, it's cheap, fast, and deeply integrated with your own ecosystem. Now, Meta's Muse Spark and Xai's Grok have already set a good example, while Google only needs a few months to make adjustments.2. 苹果（AAPL）：+0.52%，收228.45美元。道指创新高带动，消费电子+AI生态双轮驱动。产品迭代+服务收入增长，资金抱团防御，短期随大盘波动，长期看AI+硬件融合空间。Strategy的永续优先股 STRC 近日突破 94 美元，较6月低点飙升约30%。这轮反弹背后，Strategy正在用一系列“市值管理”组合拳，向市场证明自己仍能掌控局面。 上涨驱动力： 公司近期出售比特币以支付股息，并已回购约1.06亿美元的STRC优先股，同时将美元储备大幅提升至40亿美元。值得注意的是，Strategy已连续第6周没有增持比特币——囤币策略让位于流动性管理，这是公司战略转向的明确信号。 “面值保卫战”的核心机制： STRC的本质是面值100美元、可变股息率的永续优先股。其核心风险在于：股价越低，股息率被迫上调越高——当前年化股息已达12%，意味着更沉重的付息压力。 Michael Saylor已明确表态：公司不会在STRC低于100美元时发行新股，并计划继续作为“规律且纪律性的买家”持续回购。当价格离100美元较远时增加买入力度，接近时则减少。目前公司仍手握约9.75亿美元的回购额度。 回购资金将不使用美元储备，而会根据市场情况通过MSTR股票及比特币出售等方式筹集。目标是推动STRC价格稳定在100美元附近。 几个值得关注的细节： 6周不买BTC：这意味着市The story of digital gold is being reexamined.
Recently, the market has seen an interesting divergence: the US July ADP employment data came in below expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields retreated, and safe-haven funds pushed gold back above $4,200. However, BTC did not repeat this upward trajectory and continued to fluctuate within a range.
Many people began to question: Has the logic of 'digital gold' failed?
My view is that BTC and gold have never been the same safe-haven asset.
Gold trading is about "uncertainty"; when war, inflation, or currency credit risks arise, funds often respond first to gold. It has a consensus spanning thousands of years and also has central bank reserve attributes.
BTC trades for "future expectations." It requires more ample liquidity, a stronger risk appetite, and the market's belief that capital will continue to flow in in the future.
Therefore, the fact that gold rises while BTC does not rise in the short term does not mean BTC has failed; rather, it shows that the market is distinguishing the logic between the two.
Right now, BTC seems to be waiting for a confirmation signal: whether the Fed will shift its policy, whether dollar liquidity will truly be released, and whether institutional funds will accelerate their inflow again.
If expectations for rate cuts heat up and dollar liquidity improves, I believe BTC may reclaim the "risk asset lead" position.
But if the market is only worried about a recession and funds prioritize safe-haven funds, then gold may continue to lead.
So I won't simply judge who is stronger now, but focus on one core variable:
Is the capital fleeing risk, or is it preparing to embrace risk again?
Gold prices rose, indicating market unease; BTC is trading sideways, indicating that funds have not fully invested their bets.
The truly anticipated market is not the simultaneous rise of gold and BTC, but the moment when the market shifts from defensive mode to offensive mode.
At that time, BTC may truly live up to the title of "digital gold."
$BTC $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? $AAOI Options patterns are currently typical earnings trading with two-way bets.
There is a large amount of short-term call speculation, call rollovers, upside demand, and extreme downside protection simultaneously.
The expected fluctuation of the earnings report is 14.66%. Based on 128.56, the implied range is approximately 109.90–147.22.
Holding AAOI today through earnings reports should be able to withstand at least a 15% overnight gap.
There is positive Delta demand on the options side, but spot prices have not been maintained, and the selling pressure on stocks itself outweighs the hedging buying from option flows.
In summary, options are hedging, going long on volatility without a clear direction.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
闪迪$SNDK 这份财报，市场在问一个更大的问题，AI存储这条赛道，到底是一轮短期涨价周期，还是一个长期产业升级机会？
从数据看，闪迪FY2026 Q4营收和利润都超过预期，说明AI带来的存储需求正在兑现。但盘后股价回落，也说明市场没有被一份漂亮财报完全说服，因为投资者看的不是过去，而是未来。
我认为，AI存储最大的价值不是简单的价格上涨，而是需求结构正在发生变化。
过去存储行业最大的痛点是周期性太强，价格上涨后企业扩产，随后供过于求，利润快速下滑。但AI时代不一样，模型越来越大，算力越来越强，背后需要的数据吞吐量也越来越恐怖。未来竞争的不只是芯片性能，而是谁能提供更快、更大、更高效的数据存储能力。
所以我更关注三个指标：第一，AI存储需求是否持续增长；第二，高带宽闪存等新技术能否形成真正的商业价值；第三，企业能否把需求转化为长期盈利能力。
价格上涨只能带来阶段性利润，但无法支撑长期估值。真正决定AI存储未来的是，企业能不能从周期制造商，变成AI基础设施供应商。
AI存储可能不是简单的存储牛市，而是AI基础设施革命中的一个重要环节。短期市场会围绕涨价和业绩波动，但长期机会最终属于那些拥有技术壁垒、能持续提高利润率的企业。
SNDK 1小时线
短线支撑
1220-1230，第一支撑，当前多空争夺位，守住有机会反弹看1300。
1175-1180，布林下轨支撑，跌破1220后关注。
1120-1130，强支撑，跌破代表趋势转弱。
压力位
1300-1330，短线反弹压力。
1400-1480，前高套牢区。
目前属于财报后获利盘兑现，MACD死叉，短线偏弱，但AI存储逻辑未破。重点看1220能否守住，守住属于强势调整，失守可能继续探底。#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold returns to $4200—why hasn't BTC followed the rise? My judgment: it's not that I won't follow, it's just that the time hasn't come.
Guys, gold broke through 4200 with a big bullish candlestick last night, and today it's around 4300—a strong momentum. In contrast, BTC is still hovering at 64,000, like a stablecoin.
Many people have begun to doubt that the narrative of "digital gold" has collapsed. My view is quite the opposite: gold leads the charge, while BTC holds back with its big move.
The logic is simple:
· This wave of gold rally is driven by geopolitical risk aversion and central bank gold purchases, with a conservative capital nature that has always been a staple for traditional capital.
· BTC is still following the US market, and before liquidity truly eases, big money won't dare to move recklessly.
But think carefully: central banks worldwide are rushing to "de-dollarize" gold. The stronger this consensus, the sooner BTC, as the pioneer of decentralization, will inevitably absorb this wave of overflowing liquidity. Once the macro trend shifts, BTC's resilience will definitely surpass gold's catch-up rally.
In terms of trading, at this level, don't chase gold highs, nor cut losses on BTC. Hold it with peace of mind, waiting for the wind to come. The main character of the second half will most likely be replaced. $XAU 图表虽然绿油油一片，但先别急着欢呼，这轮行情的核心问题在于：流动性根本没有真正扩散到全场。👀
当下最大的认知陷阱，就是看到几根阳线就喊出“全面突破”。价格确实在涨，但资金比任何时候都更挑剔。钱并没有雨露均沾，而是高度集中在少数几个品种上，绝大多数山寨币至今仍缺乏真实买盘支撑。这不是普涨，是局部过热。
来看期货市场：未平仓合约（OI）明显降温，但成交量依然强劲。翻译成人话就是——交易员不再无脑追涨，而是开始精挑细选。市场情绪正在从FOMO驱动切换为理性驱动，这是典型的筑底分化阶段特征。📉
当前资金明显流入的方向包括：$JELLY、$OPG、$SLX、$LAB、$BSB、$ALLO、$CHIP、$MEME、$EDEN、$HUMA、$ZKP、$METIS。这些不是随机波动，而是聪明钱用脚投票的结果。
再看市场坐标系：$BTC仍然是流动性黑洞，是全场资金的绝对磁石；$ETH则是机构资金进场的主要通道；$SOL继续担当高beta L1板块的领跑者。AI叙事方面，$DATA是基础设施核心，$WLD承载AI+身份验证的想象空间，而$HYPE则直接反映了当前市场的风险偏好温度计。别忘了$DOGE和$ZEC，它们是衡量散户购买力的最直观指标。🧭
反面清单同样扎眼：$BEAT、$EDGE、$COAI、$TRUMP、$RAVE、$SPACE、$SOPH、$IP、$AVNT、$ZAMA、$OFC、$PIEVERSE、$VIRTUAL、$ACU、$H、$MEGA，这些品种仍然处于无人接货的失血状态。
搞清楚钱没去哪里，和搞清楚钱去了哪里，同样重要。不是每一根上涨的K线都值得你掏钱买单。耐心盯着资金流的真实走向，等待更强确认信号，让趋势自己证明自己，再动手不迟。📌
以上仅是图表观察，不构成投资建议。#DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $BTC我是刺哥，闪迪财报说得非常清楚。营收和EPS双超预期，新增140亿美元回购，但股价盘后暴跌。这是一次经典的高预期陷阱。
先看财报数字
营收89.7亿美元，超预期的84.8亿。EPS 39.25美元，超预期的34.96美元。数据中心收入同比增长近13倍，毛利率升至84.6%创历史新高。数字漂亮得无可挑剔。
为什么暴跌
压垮股价的是2027财年Q1指引。营收指引103亿至108亿美元，中值105.5亿，低于FactSet预期的108.2亿。毛利率指引83%至85%，显示毛利率可能在高位进入平台期。高盛此前已预警，过高的市场预期令闪迪股价难以从亮眼业绩中获益。西部数据盘后大跌超11%，SK海力士跌近10%，整个存储板块被拖下水。
对闪迪空单的评价
1337.26的空单逻辑完全正确。市场对闪迪财报的预期已经被充分消化，关键在于指引能否继续超越预期。指引低于预期的结果，直接触发了多杀多的踩踏。这一单的空头逻辑已经兑现。
接下来怎么看闪迪
短期来看，指引低于预期叠加存储板块情绪传导，空头趋势大概率延续。西部数据跌超11%、SK海力士跌近10%，板块联动效应明显。1250附近是短期支撑位，但更关键的是下方1080到1100区域。移动止损上移到1320，分批止盈设好。
刺哥说完了。你细品。$SNDK $BTC $ETH Currently, the proportion of counterfeit trading volume has risen to 60%, while Bitcoin accounts for only 22% and ETH 18%.
By comparison, in May, Bitcoin accounted for 40% of the trading share
Bitcoin spot trading volumes on all major exchanges have dropped to extremely low levels, comparable to the late 2023 bear market.
Market interest in Bitcoin remains subdued. In the coming weeks, prices will remain almost unchanged, and investors will enter a super long period of boredom.
Some funds have shifted to altcoins, which have previously pulled back far more than Bitcoin, and investors are betting on their potential for a rebound.
Funds are all playing US stocks; no one is playing with pancakes anymore.🤖On August 5, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a Bitcoin August outlook report, noting that Bitcoin's price at the beginning of August was around $64,040, down roughly 50% from the October 2025 cycle high. Historical data shows that August is one of Bitcoin's weakest months—closing down 9 times in the past 13 years, with a median return of about -7.49%. Currently, Bitcoin's key support levels include $62,000-62,200, $59,500-$60,000, and $57,730; Resistance levels are $64,000-64,700, $66,500-$67,000, and $71,000-$74,000. The macro environment remains relatively tight, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.70% and the Federal Reserve rate range between 3.50%-3.75%.
For August's performance, analysts offer three scenario assessments: Under the baseline scenario, Bitcoin has about a 55% chance of fluctuating between $58,000 and $67,000, closing the month between $60,000 and $64,000; In a bearish scenario, there is about a 30% chance that after breaking below $57,730, it may reach the realized price of $52,750; In a bullish scenario, there is about a 15% chance that after breaking through $67,000, it may test the $71,000 to $74,000 range.Sandisk is currently in a standard downtrend, showing a typical weak rebound with three steps back for every step forward.
Brothers, don’t be fooled by the slight intraday rallies; the overall structure has already shifted into a downward channel.
Last night’s earnings report showed very strong current data, with revenue and EPS both exceeding expectations, and a large buyback announced, but the market isn’t buying it. The core contradiction is the conservative guidance for next quarter’s performance, causing funds to worry about a slowdown in storage market momentum, directly triggering a sell-off on good news.
To clearly outline key price levels:
The first resistance above is 1380–1420, which is a strong barrier for recent rebounds. Any rally reaching this range will face concentrated selling pressure, making it difficult to break through in one go. Only a volume-backed close above 1450 can temporarily ease the downtrend structure; otherwise, all rallies are just corrections within the downtrend.
The short-term support below is 1300–1330, the first line of defense; if this breaks effectively, the downside opens up with a target around the previous consolidation zone of 1240–1280. Deeper support lies at 1100–1150, an important mid-term holding area.
Clarifying the core logic of the market:
The recent big surge has already priced in the market’s optimistic expectations for AI storage and NAND price increases. Funds are now trading not on realized earnings but on whether future growth can be sustained.
Under high valuation, the market’s tolerance for error is very low; if long-term guidance falls short of extreme optimism, bulls will exit en masse. Coupled with weakening sector sentiment and pressure from Hynix and Micron, Sandisk’s recovery is further suppressed.
The price action is clear: small rebounds lure buyers, followed by new lows, a three-step back pattern, making it hard for bulls to sustain a rally.
Two scenarios to watch in advance:
Weak main scenario: rebound faces resistance below 1420, then falls back to test 1330 support, and if broken, continues downward.
Minor reversal scenario: volume-backed close above 1450 breaks the downtrend short-term, but returning to strength remains very difficult.
Practical trading thoughts:
In a downtrend, chasing weak rebounds is the biggest taboo.
Short positions have a better risk-reward ratio at resistance levels; don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait for clear stabilization signals at key supports before considering.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 闪迪（SanDisk，SNDK）深度分析：AI时代的“存储卖铲人”，还能继续狂奔吗？ （注：以下分析基于公开市场信息，不构成投资建议） $SNDK #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 ⸻ 一、最新情况：业绩爆炸，但股价为何下跌？ 闪迪近期公布财报后出现了一个典型的“利好下跌”。 表面看： ✅ 营收大幅增长 ✅ AI数据中心需求强劲 ✅ 毛利率明显提升 ✅ 企业级SSD业务高速增长 但股价却出现回调。 原因很简单： 市场预期已经太高。 闪迪过去一年涨幅巨大，市场已经提前交易了AI存储超级周期，因此： 好消息必须“超过预期”，股价才会上涨。 目前财报虽然优秀，但未来指引没有明显超越华尔街最高预期，引发部分资金获利兑现。 ⸻ 二、闪迪真正的核心逻辑：AI需要的不只是GPU 很多投资者只关注： * 英伟达 GPU * 台积电芯片 * HBM高带宽内存 但忽略了一个关键问题： AI产生的数据，需要存储。 未来AI发展路线： 大模型训练 ↓ AI推理 ↓ AI Agent大量运行 ↓ 海量数据产生 ↓ 需要更大的存储空间 这就是闪迪的机会。 ⸻ 三、闪迪为什么受益AI？ 闪迪核心业务This Q2 fiscal year 2026 financial report marks Circle (CRCL)'s fundamental transformation from a "stablecoin issuer dependent on rate-cut cycles" to a "global compliant digital finance and on-chain infrastructure platform"**. 1. Business Model Restructuring: Breaking the "Interest Dependence" and Opening a Second Growth Curve Non-interest Income Surges: Circle sharply raised its full-year "Other Income" guidance from $150–$170 million to $31–330 million. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, the market initially worried that its reserve interest income would be weakened, but the Arc token presale and payment network income have proven it now possesses strong "non-interest-based cash generation." Turnaround from profit to profit and efficiency improvement: Net profit reversed from a $482 million loss in the same period last year to a profit of $48.21 million. Adjusted earnings per share ($0.18) exceeded Wall Street expectations, indicating that post-IPO equity incentives and R&D investment costs have been effectively absorbed. 2. Regulatory Compliance Barriers: Locking Exclusive Status in Traditional Finance (TradFi) Clearing Federal Bank License Breakthrough: Received approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish Circle National Trust (a national trust bank license) and New York State NYDFS approval. This makes Circle one of the very few crypto-native companies to directly qualify as a federal banking company, significantly opening up its #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Circle obtaining a federal-level banking license is a crucial signal beyond the Q2 earnings report. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency approved Circle National Trust, and Circle also secured permission from the New York State Department of Financial Services to establish Circle New York Trust. This places Circle among the few stablecoin issuers holding nationwide trust bank qualifications, further solidifying its compliance framework and directly paving the way for institutional adoption of USDC and the Arc ecosystem.
Reviewing the full operating data for Q2 2026, Circle's total revenue and reserve income reached $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA hit $143 million, up 8% year-over-year, with a post-channel share profit margin of 41%. Continuing operations net profit recorded $48.21 million, a strong reversal from a significant loss in the same period last year, reflecting a tangible recovery in profitability. Much of this net profit improvement stems from the expansion of USDC circulation and increased non-interest income. The market can see USDC's end-of-period circulation fixed at $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year growth; on-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, a substantial 151% year-over-year increase; active wallet numbers rose 24% to 7 million; and stablecoins maintained a 27% overall market share.
However, quarterly sequential data shows some phase changes: USDC's end-of-quarter circulation fell 4.8% compared to the end of Q1, and on-chain transaction volume dropped from $21.5 trillion to $14.8 trillion, a 31% sequential decline. The average USDC circulation this quarter was $76.5 billion. After the earnings release, the capital market gave direct feedback: CRCL rose pre-market driven by new narratives but dropped 10% after the official open. This divergence essentially reflects the market's trade-off between the current business growth pace and future new business potential. The pre-market rally anchored on the new story brought by Arc, while the post-open pullback priced in a short-term slowdown in USDC growth.
But we should not focus solely on short-term fluctuations in the stablecoin's existing business. Circle has completed rapid iterations across multiple business lines. Circle Payments Network's annualized transaction volume has reached $14.7 billion, a 76% increase from the previous quarter, with 175 financial institutions connected. The Agent Stack product launched in May has surpassed 900 paid service projects, with 99.3% of x402 agent payments settled using USDC. This product matrix has established a commercial payment closed loop, and USDC's real-world application scenarios continue to expand.
Another major variable comes from the Arc network, which has completed its private mainnet phase, with the public mainnet officially launching on September 16. The network's founding validator lineup is highly prestigious, including BlackRock, DTCC, Standard Chartered Bank, Visa, Mastercard, and Galaxy, all participating in node operations. BlackRock will also deploy the BUIDL fund on the Arc network, and DTCC will conduct asset tokenization custody work on this chain. Arc's core value lies in connecting stablecoin settlement, tokenized assets, and institutional-grade financial infrastructure, opening many previously uncovered institutional use cases for USDC. This is the key driver for USDC to reopen its growth curve.
The earnings report also includes an upwardly revised guidance worth noting: Circle raised its full-year other income guidance to a range of $310 million to $330 million, nearly doubling the previous target of $150 million to $170 million. This increase includes income from the Arc Token presale. The RLDC profit margin guidance was also revised upward to 41.7%–43.7%, from the previous 38%–40%, reflecting management's continued optimism about future profitability.
Going forward, for CRCL to achieve sustained market strength, the core depends on delivering three key metrics: continuous growth in USDC circulation, further expansion of payment and subscription business revenue, and continued improvement in overall profit margins. When these indicators rise simultaneously, it signifies a substantial increase in the real usage rate of Circle's stablecoin foundational services and a clear turning point in fundamentals.
The deployment of the Arc network combined with the full federal banking license provides Circle not only with new revenue sources but also elevates USDC from an ordinary on-chain stablecoin to a core medium for tokenized asset settlement among traditional large institutions. The deep involvement of traditional financial giants like BlackRock and DTCC in network operations indicates that traditional capital has embraced this on-chain financial system. USDC can leverage Arc to meet substantial real-world asset flow demands. As the institutional ecosystem gradually takes shape, USDC's demand base will further expand, and CRCL itself will simultaneously benefit from growth in business scale and profitability, possessing ample upside potential and investment value.cxmt/usdt
Changxin Technology's medium- to long-term bearish logic
The core reason for long-term short selling of Changxin Technology
1. Memory chips are destined for strong cycles and are currently at a high level of prosperity
DRAM is a bulk commodity, with a full cycle every 3-4 years: price increases→ expansion → oversupply→ price crashes, and industry losses.
Current high profits come from overseas giants' production controls combined with AI-driven price hikes, which is not a normal profitability.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will soon restart GM DRAM expansion, and with Changxin's own continued expansion, supply will be significantly released in 2027-2028. Once supply exceeds demand, DRAM prices will plummet in the short term, and company profits will shrink rapidly from tens of billions, even back into loss territory.
During historical storage downturns, overseas giants saw profit drawdown by over 80%; Changxin's production lines are relatively new, facing greater depreciation pressure, and its risk resistance during the downturn phase is weaker than the overseas big three. Management's IPO roadshow also warns: do not linearly extrapolate the current high profits into the future.
2. Valuation includes cycle premium + domestic substitution sentiment premium
A static PE of 30 times may not look high, but this is the price-to-earnings ratio calculated from peak earnings of the cycle. Once profits decline and the price-to-earnings ratio passively rises, it will lead to a double blow to Davis: declining performance + declining valuations.
Overseas, SK Hynix and Micron have prosperous PEs of only 12-20 times; Changxin's market value is significantly higher than overseas peers, including a large emotional premium for domestic substitution in A-shares, and valuation faces rebound pressure after sentiment subsides.
3. Due to technological gaps, it's hard to capture the highest profit margin for AI storage, HBM
The vast majority of Changxin's revenue and profit come from ordinary DDR5 and LPDDR general-purpose memory; High-margin HBM (AI high-bandwidth memory) is still under development and has not yet been mass-commercialized.
The highest premium AI storage business is occupied by SK Hynix and Micron, while Changxin mainly competes fiercely in the conventional DRAM track, with product structure weaknesses that will be further amplified during cyclical downturns.
4. Asset-heavy model, continuous massive capital expenditures, and high depreciation
Wafer fabs are a continuously burning cash race, with continuous investment required for line iteration and expansion. Changxin's production line is relatively new, and the annual equipment depreciation amount is substantial. If chip prices fall and capacity utilization decreases, depreciation will directly erode profits. A large portion of the cash flow earned during boom periods is invested in building and iterating factories, making it difficult to convert all of it into shareholder free cash flow.
5. Unlocking chip supply pressure (complete unlock timeline)
Listing Reference Date: 2026-07-27
1. 2027-01-27 (6 months since listing): 70% of the restricted portion of offline allocation unlocked, about 1.5 billion shares, the first wave of institutional capital release.
2. 2027-07-27 (12 months since listing): Social security and pension strategic placement shares unlocked, about 660 million shares, available for long-term institutional selling.
3. 2028-01-27 (18 months since listing): Insurance capital, industrial chain strategic investors, and core employee asset management plans unlocked, about 465 million shares, releasing industrial capital chips.
4. 2028-07-27 (24 months since listing): Sponsor institutions co-invest shares unlocked, about 230 million shares; brokerage co-investing portion can reduce holdings upon maturity.
5. 2029-07-27 (After 36 months of listing, super unlocking window): Hefei state-owned assets, Big Fund Phase II, early original shareholders, and employee stock ownership platforms unlocked large numbers of old shares, making it the largest chip supply window.
Additional special commitment: founder Zhu Yiming voluntarily locks in shares for 10 years; After the major shareholder is unlocked, the reduction must comply with the new STAR Market reduction regulations. Once the stock is lifted, the ≠ immediately sells everything, but the significant increase in forward chip supply is an objective fact. In the early stages of listing, circulating shares are very small, making the stock price easily pushed up by capital. The subsequent phased unlocking will gradually change the supply-demand structure of the chips.
6. Risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations
Performance is highly tied to AI server procurement, PCs, and mobile phone storage procurement. If global cloud providers cool down in AI capital expenditure, consumer electronics demand weakens, DRAM demand will weaken, and performance will come under pressure.
General principle: Never go all out in one go; build positions in batches, only during the boom phase, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing on the left side.
1. Warehouse building range
- First batch short testing: stock price rebounded and stabilized in the 54-58 yuan range, sector sentiment was high, themes continued to ferment, and small positions were started for short testing;
- Second batch of short positions: stock price surges to 62-66 yuan, market collectively bullish the storage cycle continues, valuation bubbles further expand, increasing short positions;
3. Set stop-loss (the most important step in short selling)
Unified hard stop loss: 70 yuan. The stock price effectively broke through 70 yuan, indicating that the current domestic substitution + AI sentiment far outweighs cyclical logic. The bearish logic has failed, and all positions must be closed out without bearing unsold losses.
4. Take-profit targets are divided into two levels
- First take-profit: 38-41 yuan, with cyclical sentiment cooling and valuation premiums falling, 60% of short positions can be eliminated, and most profits realized;
- Second take-profit: 30-33 yuan, corresponding to the peak of the cycle's prosperity and the start of a downward adjustment in profits, closing the remaining position.
5. Holding time frame
This is a mid-term cycle game, not an overnight short-term trade, with an expected holding period of 6 months;
Summary: The core logic of short selling is essentially betting on the storage cycle peaking and retreating, high profits during a boom period are unsustainable, and the sentiment premium in valuation is returning. However, it is difficult to accurately predict the timing of cycle turning points, making short selling a high-risk operation.The pullback in US tech stocks resonates with interest rate pressure, $NVDA driven by SpaceX's infrastructure procurement rising against the trend, reflecting an accelerated concentration of funds from high-valuation assets to highly certain AI hardware.
From the market facts, the Nasdaq fell 0.83%, while Nvidia jumped 3.43% to $219.22, with a total market capitalization surpassing $5.3 trillion. In contrast to the overall pressure on the semiconductor sector and Chaowei Semiconductor's single-day drop of over 7%, capital is undergoing intense structural restructuring within the broader technology sector.
The primary driving factor is SpaceX's clear focus on future AI infrastructure procurement targeting NVIDIA processors, strengthening hardware certainty. A secondary factor is the capital overflow from U.S. tech and crypto asset stocks. Coinbase directors sold 35,068 shares to cash out about $5.06 million, and MicroCe fell 74% over the past 12 months and sold 3,588 Bitcoins for interest, indicating capital is exiting highly volatile safe-haven assets and concentrating on more certain hardware leaders.
The trigger for an upward scenario is that Nvidia closes above $219.22 and that short-selling funds in semiconductors slow down. A variable to watch is the sustained flow of funds into Nvidia during pullbacks from weaker tech giants like Google. If demand for computing power procurement is strong, the premium space will continue to open. The signal that this scenario fails is either shrinking trading volume after a breakout or expanding selling pressure in the tech sector to the overall leaders.
The trigger for a downward scenario is that high valuation correction pressure spreads to the leaders, causing Nvidia to fall below the recent breakout point. Variables to watch include the market's repricing of macro interest rate trends and the inflow of funds into triple shorts for hedge tools like the Nasdaq. If risk-free interest rates rise to suppress US valuations, strong fundamentals will also face valuation corrections. The signal that this scenario has failed is that Nvidia continues its high-volume rally, stabilizing the semiconductor sector.
When triple short semiconductor shorts rose 2.86% in a single day, reflecting the accumulation of bear pressure, or when selling pressure on crypto asset-related targets translates into overall risk appetite decline, the conditions for maintaining premiums based solely on single order momentum will loosen.
In the next 24 to 7 days, focus on monitoring the turnover quality of Nvidia at the $219.22 level, as well as whether Chaowei Semiconductor and similar sector stocks stabilize. At the same time, it is necessary to monitor intraday capital flows from triple short positions on leveraged hedge tools like the Nasdaq to assess how well U.S. stocks and related risk assets absorb interest rate suppression.
#谷歌AI高层重组, the loss of core talent draws attention. #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC see new growth? #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地Low prices do not equal bargains. In the cryptocurrency market, what truly determines valuation is the supply and demand structure and release rhythm, not the fluctuating numbers on the candlestick chart. 👀
To truly see a project's true nature, we must look beyond surface hype and directly examine its tokenomics core:
🔹 The current ratio of circulating supply to total supply
🔹 Fully diluting the gap between the valuation FDV and the current market cap
🔹 Future unlock plans: release timing, quantity, and tempo
🔹 Who is the group receiving the unlocked tokens, and who are more likely to hold or sell?
Many projects appear technologically advanced, with active communities and thriving ecosystems, but if a large number of new tokens continue to flood the market, prices will be continuously suppressed by selling pressure. High FDV but very small circulating back, combined with frequent unlocks, essentially dilute the interests of early investors. 📉
The unlocking dynamics of the following projects are worth keeping an eye on:
$ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
Currently, the most prominent sectors in the market include:
🌐 DeFi and RWA (Real-World Assets):
$ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL
🤖 AI and DePIN:
$TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
🐸 Meme Coins:
$PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT
Before opening a position, ask yourself four questions:
✅ What proportion of the total supply has been circulated?
✅Is FDV reasonable relative to current market value, or is it clearly overdrawing expectations?
✅ When will the next round of mass unlock arrive?
✅ Are the teams, institutions, or early investors who receive tokens motivated to continue building or to cash out and exit?
Sound tokenomics have never been a guarantee of high returns, but poor supply management can slowly erode prices through continuous dilution. Spend more time studying supply and demand mechanisms and strictly managing risks to make more rational decisions.
This is not financial advice; please do your own research before entering.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Crypto #Tokenomics #DYORTaiwan plans to implement a crypto Travel Rule starting in October, $BTC $ETH short-term negative outlook.
In the future, when transferring more than NT$30,000 on local compliant Taiwanese platforms, the platform will need to collect and transmit more complete user identity information.
This definitely puts pressure on market sentiment.
Higher transfer thresholds, reduced privacy, and some funds may flow less locally.
But this kind of regulation is not a sudden crackdown on transactions; it is more like further integrating crypto assets into the financial anti-money laundering system.
In the short term, this will suppress some trading activity; In the long run, compliance will become increasingly apparent.
The direction of the Asian market is now very clear:
Crypto is not unregulated, but increasingly governed according to traditional financial rules.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $SOL Yesterday's original judgment was: during the price rebound, there will be insufficient active spot buying and almost no movement, so new demand has not yet been confirmed. As of 13:00 today, the evidence has become complicated and can only be recorded as "still verified."
About 20 hours after the post, SOL fell from 74.07 to 73.86, still below Binance's daily closing 20-day average; however, the spot active buy/sell ratio rose from 0.90 to 1.05, USD-M holdings increased by about 3.21%, and the funding rate turned negative. Buying and positions have indeed returned, but prices have not taken over, and new positions may include shorts.
No trading plan was provided earlier, so there are no account gains or losses to record. For about 4 hours left, just look at the daily close: if the price recovers above the 20-day average and you actively buy to maintain your advantage without holding positions, the original judgment will be invalid; If prices remain weak and negative rates persist, demand confirmation is still not complete.
#SOL #交易复盘The market is betting with real money on whether the U.S. and Iran can reach an agreement, but I only look at one indicator: whether the tankers will truly return to normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Declarations can change sentiment, but actual navigation can change supply.
If the agreement is implemented, oil prices, inflation, and Treasury yields may all fall simultaneously, creating tailwinds for tech stocks and BTC; If negotiations break down, recent gains in risk assets may also be quickly reversed.
Do you think this is the real turning point, or is it another case of "selling up first, then collapsing"?Oh my god! SanDisk's earnings report is absolutely explosive—Q4 revenue hit 8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, net profit of 6.9 billion turning losses into gains, EPS $39.25 smashing expectations! Full-year revenue reached 20.25 billion, data center single-quarter revenue was 2.98 billion, soaring 1298% year-over-year, simply terrifying!
But! After hours it actually dropped 8% at one point, the market flipped faster than flipping a page! Why? The Q1 guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, slightly below expectations, gross margin didn't continue to rise, and consumer business dropped 32% quarter-over-quarter—it's like scoring 99 points but being asked why not 100, unfair or not?
But don't panic! They signed 8 long-term contracts locking in supply for next year and the year after, approved a 14 billion buyback, just released 332-layer QLC new technology, fundamentals are solid! Morgan Stanley even says storage shortages will last at least two years.
My calculation: 55% probability it will hover around here, the market needs to catch its breath; 35% probability it will pull back another 10-15%, after all AI expectations are overheated; only 10% chance of an immediate rebound, waiting for the next strong catalyst.
In short, the long-term bull run is unstoppable, short-term... depends on the main players' mood!
⚠️ Purely my personal speculation, investing carries risks, don't blame me if you lose! $SNDK $BTC $ETH Breaking news, breaking news! Since being spun off and relisted from Western Digital (WDC) in 2025, SNDK has become the absolute core of the AI storage sector. The Q4 2026 financial report released after market close on August 5 is not only a battle of performance but also a thorough showdown of bullish and bearish logic.
Below is an in-depth analysis of the "large funds taking sides" versus the "different scenarios of retail investors vs. whales":
1. Core Financial Data and Capital "Realignment"
Although SNDK's earnings report showed EPS (earnings per share) of $34.52 (significantly above the expected $33.38) and substantial year-over-year revenue growth, the stock price trend diverged sharply:
*Institutional profit-taking: Goldman Sachs prime broker data shows hedge funds have net sold semiconductor hardware for four consecutive weeks, making SNDK the top choice for cashing out at high levels.
*Valuation Divergence: Although the stock price has retreated about 40% from a high of $2,354, some whales (such as Whale Rock) believe there is still room for their NAND business penetration in the AI data center market; Meanwhile, the bear whales targeted the $850 deep out-of-the-money put option for defensive hedging.
2. The "Different Scripts" of Retail Investors Trading with Whales
*Whale Script: From "Premium Growth" to "Cyclical Defense"
*Core logic: Whales are trading in "slowing AI capital expenditure" and "shock to China's storage capacity." With ChangXin Memory (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory (YMTC) set to unleash significant capacity in 2026, institutions worry that SNDK's pure NAND model lacks the high-premium HBM moat of SK Hynix.
*Rebalancing actions: Large funds are exiting "crowded AI trading," shifting to options games around $1,370, locking in profits by selling covered calls.
*Retail investor script: shifting from "belief holdings" to "psychological panic"
*Core logic: Retail investors' confidence on social platforms like Stocktwits remains in a fluctuating range from "extremely optimistic" to "on the verge of collapse."
*Trading behavior: Most retail investors expect a technical rebound at $1,400 to break even, but once the psychological level of $1,000 is broken, it easily triggers large-scale positioning flush.
3. What should you do next? (Strategic Advice)
Currently, SNDK has entered a typical "post-earnings positioning reshaping period," and it is recommended to pay attention to the following key milestones:
*Support and resistance levels:
*First support level: $1,000 (strong psychological threshold and major institutional cost zone).
*Core resistance levels: $1,370 - $1,420 (the maximum option open interest range for the current cycle).
*Key variables: Watch out for hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the August policy meeting, and whether NAND spot prices are experiencing structural loosening due to overcapacity.
*Operation Advice:
*Long-term holders: Watch around $1,000 for signs of whale 'second entry' and sweeping signals.
*Short-term traders: Avoid struggling near the midline near $1,200. If it falls below $1,190 with increased volume, it suggests the whale scenario has shifted from "taking profits" to "trending short selling," with the next target level set directly at $943.
Conclusion: The sell-off after SNDK's earnings report is not fundamentals deteriorating, but rather a collective withdrawal of large funds amid expectations of a peak in the AI storage "supercycle." The next 1-2 weeks will be a key window for watching the gap between retail investors cutting losses and institutions rebuilding positions. $BTC $ETH $SNDK