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#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, scale halved
MSTR is selling coins again, brothers, don’t panic.
The 8-K just disclosed that from 7.27 to 8.2, they sold 1,638 BTC, cashing out $104.7 million, with an average price of 63,957, which is lower than the cost line of 75,419. Holdings dropped to 842,000 BTC. Last time, in early July, they sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million; this time the scale is directly halved, and they paused for four weeks before acting.
Where did the money go? To pay 12% dividends on preferred shares and to repurchase their own preferred shares, which must be paid or it would be a default. There are also 299 small transfers on-chain; we’ll see next week if those count as sales.
Saylor hasn’t emptied out; he’s "nurturing coins with shares." The preferred share price is still about 10% below the issue price; only after it recovers will they restart buying coins. BTC is under short-term pressure, but a big player like MSTR cutting holdings by half actually indicates it’s not a panic sell-off.
From the market perspective, BTC is currently consolidating and building a bottom. MSTR’s sale dampens sentiment, but as long as the preferred shares hold steady, it’s very likely to become a "coin-absorbing machine" again in the second half of the year. Don’t be scared off by short-term sell-offs; the real big players are still waiting for the right moment.
Looking calmly, this move looks more like a financial operation, not a collapse of faith.The coins in your wallet that you once stayed up late watching, afraid to miss a single pump, now have icons as gray as tombstones. It's not that you feel sorry for the money, but suddenly you realize—this pile of code might not even see the shadow of the next bull market.
This sounds harsh, but on-chain data never lies.
I used to know a guy who stubbornly held onto a zoo project, which fell from its peak down to ankle level. Every day in the group chat, he posted “whale address movements” and “weekly golden cross about to form.” I told him to wake up—what you have isn’t faith; it’s just fear of facing stop-loss orders.
Last month, the liquidity pool of his coin had become so shallow that a single trade of tens of thousands of U could crash it. The last message in the community was the admin recruiting part-time translators.
The whole market is sending a naked truth: this round is not a broadly shared rally; it’s a liquidity squeeze.
The main funds have long stopped playing the wide-net game. Now these market makers are as cunning as ghosts, only daring to repeatedly trade waves around a few tokens with hot money rolling, ongoing narratives, and turnover support. The rest? They quietly sell a little every day, selling so stealthily you can’t see the traces, selling until you don’t even want to cut losses.
Just dug into the past 24 hours of on-chain data, as clear as a knife cut:
✅ Net capital inflow (buying dominance):
$ENA • $PEPE • $ONDO • $LINK • $UNI • $AAVE • $MKR • $ENS • $LDO • $RNDR
No need to say much about Bitcoin; it’s always the anchor. The rest are either DeFi blue chips with real protocol revenue, or RWA sectors backed by Wall Street, or top meme IPs with built-in traffic. Money isn’t stupid; it only goes where it can hold large positions and enter and exit smoothly.
❌ Continuous capital outflow (selling pressure dominant):
$WIF • $BONK • $FLOKI • $ARB • $OP • $STRK • $SUI • $SEI • $APT • $DYDX • $CRV • $CAKE
Several of these were “value traps” in major Chinese communities last year. Now? Daily volume has shrunk to a tenth of the peak, each rebound weaker than the last, like boats stranded on the beach at low tide—no matter how you push, they won’t float back to sea.
👀 I’m still glancing at but haven’t touched:
$TIA • $INJ • $PENDLE • $FXS • $CVX
Just glancing. At this stage, bottom fishing halfway up the mountain is ten times more painful than missing out.
Let’s talk about those unavoidable big players:
👑 $BTC — the anchor; if it ever falters, the whole market goes down together
🏛️ $ETH — the heavy holding of Grayscale folks, moving like an old bull pulling a broken cart, but no one dares to be truly bearish
⚡ $SOL — an emotion magnifier; it pumps hard and dumps harder, good for short-term traders but don’t hold overnight
🤖 $FET & $AGIX — the new narrative after AI sector merger; the story can still be told, but it needs Bitcoin to stay steady
📉 $AR — the thermometer of the storage sector; if it’s lying flat, it means market sentiment is still low
Every bull and bear cycle repeatedly confirms one iron rule: don’t fantasize that every project can rise from the ashes, don’t believe every whitepaper can be fulfilled.
Those who truly survive the market and take profits never place orders based on “I feel a rebound is coming.” They don’t watch K-line patterns or wave counts; they only watch where the money flows on-chain.
Hope is a good thing, but it can’t be your take-profit or stop-loss line. Liquidity is your real parent.
I learned this the hard way, losing a Model 3 before it truly sank into my bones. Hope you pay less tuition.
---
It’s the weekend, don’t squeeze your phone until it sparks. Go out, get some sun, chat with friends about things unrelated to coin prices. The market will still be there Monday, but your hair and blood pressure might not.
DYOR.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Liquidity #FromRateCutsToHikesFedDisagreementsFullyExposed
Personal views for reference only, not investment advice. BlackRock is positioning a stablecoin reserve fund, traditional finance is redefining the crypto market entry
A notable change has recently emerged in the crypto market:
BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management companies, is setting up fund products specifically serving stablecoin reserves.
The significance behind this may be more important than simply launching two funds.
Because this means:
Stablecoins are gradually moving from internal crypto market tools into the asset management framework of traditional finance.
In recent years, stablecoins have been one of the most important infrastructures in the crypto market.
Stablecoins like USDT and USDC have handled a large volume of on-chain transaction demand.
They connect:
Fiat currency.
Exchanges.
DeFi.
On-chain payments.
According to market data, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has now exceeded $200 billion, becoming one of the largest capital entry points in the crypto market.
But stablecoins have always faced a core issue:
How are reserve assets managed?
Why do users trust that every stablecoin is backed by sufficient assets?
This is also why traditional financial institutions have started paying attention.
Stablecoin issuers typically allocate reserve funds to:
Short-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Cash.
Money market instruments.
Among these, U.S. Treasuries have become one of the main assets.
Because stablecoins essentially require:
Safety.
Liquidity.
Low-risk returns.
And short-term U.S. Treasuries perfectly meet these needs.
BlackRock's entry into this field sends a very clear signal:
Traditional asset management companies are competing for the digital dollar infrastructure.
In recent years, market focus has mainly been on:
Bitcoin ETFs.
Ethereum ETFs.
Crypto trading platforms.
But the bigger opportunities in the future may come from stablecoins and the on-chain dollar system.
Because stablecoins connect global payments and capital flows.
This has a very direct impact on the crypto market.
The first to benefit may be Ethereum.
Currently, a large amount of stablecoin issuance and trading is concentrated in the Ethereum ecosystem.
The large-scale circulation of USDT and USDC brings substantial transaction demand to the Ethereum network.
If stablecoin scale continues to grow in the future, Ethereum's value as infrastructure may further increase.
Currently, ETH price remains around $1850.
Short-term trends are still influenced by market liquidity, but stablecoin growth is a long-term important variable.
Regarding Bitcoin, BTC price is currently fluctuating around $62,000.
BlackRock previously promoted Bitcoin ETFs entering traditional financial markets, which has already changed BTC's capital structure.
The layout of stablecoin funds represents traditional institutions entering crypto from another direction:
Not by directly purchasing crypto assets.
But by participating in digital financial infrastructure.
SOL is also worth attention.
Currently, SOL price is around $70.
Over the past year, Solana has attracted a large amount of on-chain activity with high transaction speed and low fees.
If stablecoin payments and on-chain transaction scale expand in the future, high-performance public chains may gain more application opportunities.
However, the stablecoin sector will also face competition in the future.
Regulation.
Reserve transparency.
Issuance qualifications.
Compliance requirements.
All will become key to industry development.
Especially under the backdrop of the U.S. promoting the improvement of digital asset regulatory frameworks, stablecoins may become an important breakthrough for traditional finance to enter the crypto market.
My view:
BlackRock's positioning of a stablecoin reserve fund is not just a product move.
It represents a trend:
Traditional finance is shifting from "investing in crypto assets" to "building digital financial infrastructure."
In the past, the market focused on BTC price.
Now institutions are starting to focus on:
Who controls digital dollar flows.
Who manages on-chain funds.
Who becomes the entry point of the future financial system.
Bitcoin solves value storage.
Stablecoins solve value circulation.
And in the next phase, the biggest competition in the crypto market may be shifting from asset issuance to capital infrastructure. $ETH After Bitcoin dropped to 80,000 last year and then rebounded sharply, New York Fed President Williams came out to release information. The Fed has canceled the original forward guidance and gradually evolved into using voting distributions and regional Fed presidents' hints as alternative guidance. The advantage of this approach is distributed responsibility; if any unexpected news shocks the market, no one can be held accountable. However, this news flash is actually rehashing old news, with the source being an interview from last Friday.
Based on his past record, he seems more like a forerunner for signaling, and Friday's speech was essentially explaining the reason why the FOMC held steady this time. It follows the typical approach of shifting responsibility or decision-making power to the data, thereby distancing the Fed from responsibility in case of market turmoil.#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise The Nasdaq is currently at a very critical point: whether this rebound is a restart or a bull trap repair within a rounded top will be answered in the coming days.
From the chart, the highs have been steadily declining since June, and the price has now rebounded near the descending trendline. A rounded top is taking shape but has not yet been confirmed.
The true bull-bear dividing line lies between 29500 and 29800: a volume-backed hold above this range would invalidate the top structure, and the index could challenge 30400–30700 again; if the rally is blocked, it remains a technical correction within a downtrend. The macro environment is not favorable for tech stocks.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to a 19-year high, meaning funding costs continue to rise; inflation and economic data also limit the Fed's easing space.
The market previously traded on "rate cut expectations," but going forward, it will trade on whether high interest rates begin to erode earnings.
The earnings logic has also changed.
The index appears strong, but internal positioning has clearly diverged.
Microsoft and Amazon continue to command premiums thanks to their cloud businesses, but Apple is weakening, and some giants face pressure on free cash flow, indicating institutions no longer uniformly buy into the AI narrative and only reward companies that truly deliver revenue and profit.
The US and Japan are jointly buying yen, and yen arbitrage trades face liquidation risk.
If funds are forced to sell US stocks to cover yen positions, the most crowded tech and semiconductor sectors will be the first to come under pressure.
The 29300–29600 range is the rebound observation zone; if clearly resisted, consider light short positions and exit if it holds above 30000.
The 26500–26800 range is the core support zone; only if panic selling and a bottoming structure appear should one consider light long positions to bet on a rebound, and stop trying if it breaks below 26000.
If 26500 fails, the rounded top is truly confirmed, and liquidity may be sought again in the 24000–25000 area below.
Right now, the most important thing is not to predict ups or downs but to wait for confirmation: respect the bulls if it breaks above 29800, respect the trend if it falls below 26500. Until then, patience is more valuable than opinions. $ONDO, short opened at 0.3815, current price 0.371, 50x leverage, +137.61%.
The basis for opening the position is the 4-hour level integer resistance at 0.38 coinciding with the previous rebound high at 0.3815. The price tested this level three times without breaking it, and the volume decreased with each rebound, confirming weak bullish support. I placed a limit short order after the third rejection without chasing a breakout.
Exit conditions are twofold: a 1-hour close above 0.3815 on a rebound, or a volume-increased stop after breaking below 0.365. Neither condition has been triggered yet, so no action is taken. ONDO has a circulation rate of about 48.7%, total supply of 10 billion, and under the RWA narrative, there is always unlocking supply discount pressure above, so the selling pressure around 0.38 is fundamentally supported.
For those who haven't entered, don't chase shorts after a long upper wick; wait for the triple confirmation of the previous high. Wait for my next sniper point. $BTC $ETH If there's one thing weakening the crypto market right now, it's not the price action—it's investor confidence.
Over the past few days, several bearish signals have emerged at the same time. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have lost momentum, while retail participation remains near multi-year lows. That means the market is becoming increasingly dependent on institutional capital, leaving $BTC and $ETH more vulnerable whenever large investors slow their buying.
At the same time, headlines such as Strategy selling 1,638 $BTC and the recent Coldcard wallet security incident have reinforced a defensive mindset across the market. Neither event changes the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin or Ethereum, but both have increased short-term uncertainty and made investors more cautious about taking new positions.
As a result, $BTC continues to struggle at key resistance levels, while $ETH has yet to attract enough fresh capital to establish a convincing breakout. Every recovery attempt has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that traders are still prioritizing capital preservation over chasing upside.
What makes this phase different is that the market isn't driven by panic—it's driven by exhaustion. Trading volumes have softened, leverage is being reduced, and many investors are choosing to stay on the sidelines rather than aggressively buying the dip.
The next major move for $BTC and $ETH will likely depend less on technical charts and more on whether institutional inflows return, Bitcoin ETFs regain momentum, and overall market confidence begins to recover. Until those catalysts appear, caution is likely to remain the dominant theme across the crypto market.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#MSTRSells1638BTC
#TrumpMinerLossAddsBTC
$BTC $ETH #From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions are fully exposed
The market just heated up expectations for rate cuts, and now voices for rate hikes are starting to emerge. The Fed's most awkward position right now isn't a lack of direction, but that every direction has a reasonable argument behind it.
The dovish logic is straightforward: once economic data weakens, employment cools, and corporate financing pressure rises, keeping interest rates high will ultimately hurt the real economy.
The hawkish side also has reasons: as long as inflation hasn't fully subsided, cutting rates too early could undo previous efforts. Especially with variables like energy, tariffs, and supply chains, any reversal could push prices back up.
Previously, the market loved guessing when the Fed would pivot; now the more realistic situation is that even within the Fed, there's no consensus on whether to act next.
For the crypto space, the hardest part isn't the rate hikes themselves or the rate cuts themselves, but the switching back and forth of expectations.
Today, risk assets surge on rate cut expectations; tomorrow, they retreat due to inflation data easing, and funds immediately seek safety. BTC and ETH may look like they're moving based on technicals, but behind the scenes, it's still a tug-of-war between dollar liquidity and risk appetite.
So at this stage, don't just focus on any single speech, and don't assume rate cuts automatically mean good news.
What really matters is whether inflation continues to fall, whether employment shows clear weakness, and whether the Fed's internal divisions shift from verbal debates to ongoing policy struggles.
The market's biggest fear has never been a bad answer, but that the answer keeps changing $BTC $ETH SpaceX（$SPCX ）明晚凌晨（8月5日）发布上市后首份季度财报，从期权市场定价角度参考关键价位 期权市场对财报后的预期波动（Expected Move）目前定价较高。以8月7日到期（覆盖财报后第一个周五）的期权数据为例，ATM straddle隐含波动约19.7%（±约22.5美元）。以当前股价约116美元计算，这意味着波动区间大致在93.5-138.5美元。周五到期的期权隐含波动率仍处高位，未平仓合约Put/Call Ratio维持在0.6–0.8之间，Call持仓仍占主导。这意味着财报后无论是向上突破还是向下崩盘，做市商的对冲操作都可能放大波动—Call持仓集中处可能触发Gamma挤压（做市商被迫买入正股推高股价），而Put持仓集中处则可能加速下跌。 自6月12日以135美元IPO定价上市以来，SpaceX最高冲到200美元上方。上周五收于约108美元，周一大幅反弹收于114.53美元，盘前已回升至116美元附近。更关键的是—8月6日有最多9.115亿股解禁，数量比当前流通股还要多。S3 Partners数据显示，截至7月29日，SpaceX空头持仓已达2.193亿股，约占Has Bitcoin faith changed? $MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC
Strategy (MSTR) has always been the world's largest enterprise-level Bitcoin holder and a long-term bullish representative in the market.
However, the latest data shows the company has sold another 1,638 BTC, cashing out about $105 million. Although the scale is significantly smaller compared to previous sales, it still sparked market discussion.
It is worth noting that even after the sale, Strategy still holds about 4% of the global circulating Bitcoin supply, so its position remains unchanged. This sale seems more like fund management rather than abandoning the long-term strategy. However, for the market, as long as the largest holding institution starts selling, Bitcoin's short-term sentiment will be somewhat affected.
$HOME $CRCL
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 There are only two possible outcomes for the US stock market this week.
Either the AI mainline earnings hold up + employment data is moderate + the Fed doesn't turn hawkish, and the rebound continues.
Or any one of these three lines breaks, and last week's surge is completely given back.
There is no middle ground; all three lines are essentially lifelines.
First line: The Fed's tone.
The quiet period is over, and officials will start speaking intensively.
What the market cares about most now is not whether rates will be cut immediately, but whether the tone has changed.
If they continue to emphasize inflation resilience and strong employment, rate cut bets will be suppressed.
If they start sending more dovish signals, sentiment for growth stocks, tech stocks, and crypto assets will immediately improve.
Last week Warsh said, "This is not a pause, it's the beginning of the story." This week, we watch if other officials follow suit.
If everyone turns hawkish, the market will have to reprice rate hike expectations.
If some start to soften, it indicates growing internal divisions, which is actually good for the market.
Second line: AI mainline earnings.
This week Palantir, AMD, Supermicro, Vertiv, and Datadog report earnings.
They seem to be from different sectors but are connected by the same question: Has AI demand cooled down?
Palantir looks at whether AI software commercialization can continue to generate revenue; AMD looks at whether AI chip market share has made substantial breakthroughs.
Supermicro looks at server shipments and order backlogs; Vertiv looks at demand for data center power and cooling infrastructure; Datadog looks at the real growth rate of enterprise AI usage.
Together, these five companies form a comprehensive health check of the AI industry chain from chips to software to infrastructure.
If all deliver strong revenue and guidance, it means the AI capital expenditure line is intact, and sentiment across semiconductors, storage, and power equipment chains still has support.
If more than two companies weaken their guidance, last week's rebound was just a dead cat bounce.
Third line: Employment data.
Thursday brings initial jobless claims; Friday brings the nonfarm payroll report.
These two data points could directly change the market's interest rate outlook.
The market's favorite scenario now is: the economy isn't too bad, employment isn't too strong, and inflation continues to decline.
If employment is too strong, rate cut expectations are crushed. If employment is too weak, recession fears will resurface.
The US stock market is extremely picky now; good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise, nor does bad data necessarily mean a fall.
Data good enough for the Fed to justify no rate cuts is bearish.
Data bad enough to suggest economic trouble is also bearish. Only the "not too good, not too bad" sweet spot is accepted by the market.
So don't try to guess daily ups and downs this week.
Just focus on three questions: Have AI earnings been disproven? Will employment data change the rate cut pace? Has the Fed officials' tone shifted?
If all three are okay, there is still room for a rebound.
If any one fails, the weekend swing from despair to greed last week might quickly reverse again.JUST IN: Jeff Bezos has filed to sell up to 15 million Amazon $AMZN shares worth $4.1 BILLION.
The shares were originally acquired as founder stock in 1994, with Morgan Stanley designated to execute the sale.
The filing became public days after Amazon’s earnings sent the stock to record highs, putting the company at $3T market cap.
The gains pushed Bezos’ estimated net worth to $289 BILLION, making him the world’s third-richest person.Storage stocks fell 40% in July.
At the same time, DRAM and HBM capacity for 2027 was completely sold out.
Stock prices are saying "it's over," while orders are saying "not enough to sell."
Two signals are completely opposite. But only one is true.
Stock prices are driven by sentiment, capacity is locked in with real money.
DigiTimes just confirmed that the annual capacity for DRAM and HBM in 2027 has been fully sold out ahead of schedule. Cloud providers and AI giants took priority allocations, and manufacturers can only deliver 60%-70% of the initial demand to regular buyers. Smartphone and PC manufacturers have been pushed to the end of the line.
This explains why Apple dropped 10% last week—not because phones aren’t selling, but because storage can’t be secured. The world’s largest consumer electronics company in terms of procurement is shouting shortage, and other manufacturers can be imagined.
What caused the storage stocks to crash in July? Leverage sell-offs, Korean ETF collapse, Leopold forced liquidation—none of these are related to demand, all are position issues.
So what happened on the demand side? Amazon increased capital expenditure to 220 billion and still says it’s not enough, Google Cloud has 514 billion in backlog orders, and now even next year’s capacity has been snapped up.
Positions can be cleared in a week, but capacity shortages won’t disappear in a week.
Of the 40% drop in July, how much was caused by fundamental deterioration? Zero.
It was all leverage liquidation and emotional stampede, while the fact of sold-out capacity has not changed a single day during the stock price crash.
Stock prices can lie, orders cannot.Brothers, here comes the counterintuitive truth: BTC is lying stagnant at 62,528 with volume down 31.3%, yet GRVT surged +14.55% in one day, and KAITO dropped -16.1% — this is not a bottoming out, it’s clearly a meat grinder where groups are gambling for survival.
On the surface, it looks like "volume contraction and stabilization": open interest frozen at 111,400 BTC without a single drop, big money lying flat playing dead, the market has no direction.
But when you spread out the breadth, the truth is revealed: across the whole market, 6 assets rose and 9 fell, with a scissors gap in gains and losses stretched to 30 points (14.55% vs -16.1%), money hasn’t really entered, it’s all gambling on those two individual tokens.
For BTC, this is dead water; for ETH and altcoins, it’s even worse — the middle ground has no way out, only two types of people are making money: either those who hit the GRVT-style lottery, or those shorting blood bags like KAITO.
Here’s what you can take away: when judging the bottom, don’t just focus on BTC price. Watch two indicators — ① breadth (number of rising vs falling assets) for expansion; ② dispersion (difference between extreme gains and losses) for convergence.
Right now, breadth is 6:9 plus a 30% extreme difference, indicating funds are clustered gambling on a few, not building positions. True bottom characteristics are breadth warming up and dispersion narrowing, neither of which is met now.
The worst trap in this situation: you see BTC not falling and think it’s safe, but once you reach out to buy altcoins, you get slapped by extreme ±15% swings like GRVT/KAITO. Beneath the dead water lies an undercurrent.
Self-mock: my two positions (ADA long -1.37%, KAITO short -0.81%) are stuck in this 6:9 gap, neither long nor short making money, purely for fun.
Remember: price sideways ≠ bottom arrived, it might be the meat grinder sharpening its blades. Wait for breadth to expand and dispersion to contract, that’s when you should open your eyes.
Bro, in this market, are you waiting for a GRVT-style lottery, or using KAITO as a contrarian indicator? How many did you bet right on this week? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #Altcoins #MarketBreadth #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanet #Volatility #CapitalClustering #StopLossDiscipline #TradingPsychologyEconomic data hits a four-year high, so why did U.S. Treasury bonds rise instead?
The latest U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, reaching a four-year high, indicating a clear recovery in manufacturing activity.
Normally, the stronger the economy, the more the market worries about sustained high interest rates, causing U.S. Treasury yields to continue rising. But this time, the opposite happened: long-term Treasury yields actually fell.
The reason is that investors have started to believe that although the economy is performing well, bond yields have already priced in too many negative factors in advance, leading some funds to buy back long-term government bonds. At the same time, the market is also waiting for the next inflation data to further confirm the future direction of interest rates.
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌
$SKHYNIX $BTC $HOME AI demand is exploding? Nvidia's revenue grows 85%, Microsoft's AI business grows 123%
The latest earnings report shows that AI demand has not cooled down significantly.
Nvidia's Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year; data center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92% year-over-year, and the company expects next quarter revenue to be about $91 billion.
What truly makes the market reassess the AI trend is not just chip sales.
Microsoft's AI business annualized revenue has exceeded $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year; Azure demand still exceeds existing computing capacity. Microsoft expects capital expenditures of about $190 billion in 2026, while Amazon plans to invest about $200 billion to continue expanding data centers, developing chips, and AI infrastructure.
In the past, many people simply understood the AI trend as "buy Nvidia," but now capital is reevaluating the entire industry chain: chips, optical modules, storage, power, cloud computing, and AI applications that can ultimately charge enterprises.
However, the larger the capital expenditure, the greater the future depreciation pressure. Microsoft's capital expenditure for the quarter reached $31.9 billion, and the company's gross margin declined year-over-year, partly due to investments in AI infrastructure and rising costs of AI product usage.
This means the next phase of AI stocks in the US market will no longer see all companies rising together.
What the market really wants to see is who can turn expensive GPUs and data centers into sustained revenue, cash flow, and higher customer stickiness.
Computing power proves AI demand exists; profits prove this round of investment is worthwhile.Cryptocurrency trading volume drops to the year's lowest point: The market hasn't disappeared, but fewer people are trading first
According to data from 44 exchanges tracked by Kaiko, last week's cryptocurrency trading volume fell to about $15 billion, marking the lowest level of the year, down about 70% from the January peak. Looking back, the early-year peak was close to $50 billion, meaning the market has lost about $35 billion in volume, with market activity only about 30% of the peak period.
Prices can consolidate, but volume doesn't lie.
This data indicates that the current market lacks not stories, but incremental funds willing to continuously chase prices. Although $BTC and $ETH can still experience short-term fluctuations driven by news and large capital inflows, if volume does not increase in sync during the rise, the reliability of the breakout is discounted; conversely, a drop in a low-volume environment does not necessarily mean the trend has fully turned bearish, as a small number of sell orders can cause noticeable price swings.
Mainstream coins and altcoins are affected differently.
$BTC has the deepest liquidity and usually absorbs risk-averse and institutional funds first; for $ETH, besides price, one should also watch ETF flows, staking activity, and on-chain fund movements. As for $SOL and other highly elastic coins, the impact of shrinking volume is more direct—thinner buy orders and reduced order book depth lead to more frequent pump-and-dump and false breakouts. Although it may seem like just a few points difference, the actual trading experience can be completely different.
However, $15 billion does not mean the market has entered an absolute freeze. The decline in centralized exchange volume may also be influenced by funds shifting to ETFs, on-chain DEXs, and perpetual futures markets, so conclusions should not be drawn from a single metric. What is truly worth observing is whether $BTC can lead a breakout with volume, whether $ETH can follow, and whether the altcoin trading share rebounds.
It now feels more like "existing funds competing with each other" rather than a full-scale incremental market. Before volume returns, sudden rallies should not be chased hastily, and rapid sell-offs should not be easily taken as trend confirmation. The quieter the market, the more respect should be given to key price levels and volume.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SOL This "time difference" is so precise it makes your scalp tingle. According to TradingBeats monitoring, the whales bought Lumentum (LITE) in two rounds at the start of 0xaa53, both coinciding with the eve of an accelerated price increase. It was not until 6 p.m. today that Reuters revealed that the Trump administration is drafting measures to restrict imports of Chinese data center optical modules, with U.S. companies Coherent and Lumentum potentially beneficiaries. Before the public market saw this news, the whale's second round of increased holdings had already been completed. Operation review: First entered on the evening of July 30, buying a total of 1897.9 LITE units within about two hours, at an average price of $669.2. The first transaction was priced at only $636.5, and LITE quickly rose to around $696 that night. On the evening of August 3, he made another move, adding 540 shares at an average price of $700.5, investing about $378,000. The total for the two rounds is about $1.648 million. Two days later, Reuters reported a rally, with LITE reaching a high of $874.3. As of press time, the whale was going long at 10x isolated positions, with a position value of about $2.117 million, an unrealized gain of about $468,000, and a return rate of 284.1%. Based on the overall price range, it actually captured about two-thirds of the 48.8% rebound in this round. Trading records show 139 buy trades, with no positions sold during this period, nor any take-profit orders. LITE is currently quoted at $868.2, up 23.3% in 24 hours, cumulating from the stage low【Texas Suspends Approval of ERCOT-Related Data Centers; Bitcoin Miners with Approved Power Contracts May Remain Unaffected】
1. Core Event Interpretation.
Texas has ordered a suspension of approvals for new data center grid connection projects and is conducting a power grid audit.
Existing Bitcoin mining farms that have already secured power contracts and completed grid approvals are not impacted by this policy.
Only new speculative mining capacity projects still awaiting approval will be stalled, leading to a differentiation in the mining enterprise landscape.
2. Bullish Logic.
The new regulation filters out a large number of speculative new mining capacity projects, slowing the expansion rate of new Bitcoin mining supply in the future.
Leading mining enterprises that have already established operations and obtained full grid approvals will see an increase in asset scarcity.
Long-term contraction in incremental mining output indirectly benefits BTC’s supply-demand dynamics and fundamentally supports compliant mining enterprises.
3. Operational Suggestions.
Do not overinterpret this as bearish; focus on distinguishing between existing and new projects.
BTC spot holdings can be maintained without panic due to this news.
In the mining sector, prioritize targets that have completed all Texas grid approvals and avoid miners whose pipelines are not yet established.
This policy is a medium- to long-term supply-side variable and will not immediately stimulate coin prices, making it suitable as a reference for long-term allocation.The market is telling you something when BTC adds nearly 2% on a day Strategy is selling. 1,638 BTC hit the tape and the bid absorbed it cleanly. Demand depth that size does not show up in the headline price; it shows up in how little the sell actually moves anything.
The Fed's internal split is now public, and rather than prompting a defensive rotation, crypto and tech are moving in the same direction into a heavy earnings week. When forced liquidations get digested quietly and macro uncertainty gets repriced as noise rather than risk, the regime has shifted in a way the charts do not fully capture yet. Whether BigTech results confirm that read or complicate it is the only real question on the tape right now.
Not advice, just analysis.
#OKXOrbit[Capital One Responds to Trump's "De-banking" Allegations: Account Closure Underwent Months of Compliance Review]
1. Core Interpretation of the Incident.
The essence of this lawsuit is a dispute over the survival rights of real-world bank accounts. Trump's camp accuses the bank of freezing accounts due to political stance, while the bank attributes it entirely to anti-money laundering risk control.
Regardless of the court's final ruling, the fact that "traditional banks can shut down high-value political figures' accounts" has been established, which will continue to strengthen the narrative of crypto assets as a safe haven.
2. Bullish Logic.
Subjective risk control and account closure risks exist in real banks. The value story of Bitcoin, an asset not controlled by a single institution, will be amplified.
If the court later recognizes the existence of "de-banking," public opinion will spread widely, driving safe-haven funds into BTC. Even if the ruling favors the banks, this topic will repeatedly be circulated within the crypto community.
3. Operational Suggestions.
Do not speculate on short-term news stimuli; this judicial case has a long cycle and will not conclude quickly.
Accumulate BTC spot on dips, treating this matter as a long-term narrative catalyst.
Focus on court ruling milestones, avoid short-term contract speculation, prioritize spot holdings, and wait for valuation uplift driven by narrative fermentation.The cooling speed of Korea's single-stock leveraged ETFs indicates that when restricting speculative funds, raising trading thresholds is much more effective than verbal warnings.
The KODEX leveraged ETF linked to SK Hynix had a daily trading volume that reached 7.4 trillion KRW at the end of June, but by August 3rd, it had dropped to 560 billion KRW, a decrease of about 92.4% from its peak.
The changes in Samsung Electronics leveraged ETFs follow a similar curve: a peak of about 3.6 trillion KRW, recently down to 234 billion KRW, shrinking by approximately 93.5%. Both products did not cool down slowly but lost over 90% of their trading volume within a few weeks.
The overall market's capital share is also rapidly declining. The proportion of single-stock leveraged ETF trading volume in the Korean main board market was 33.4% on July 30, dropped to 6.6% on July 31, and further decreased to 5.4% on August 1. In three days, the impact of leveraged products on market trading volume shrank from nearly one-third to about one-twentieth.
What the policy changed was the participation cost.
Previously, Korea required investors to have at least 10 million KRW in their accounts, with stocks, regular ETFs, and bonds counting as 70% of their market value. Starting July 31, the threshold was raised to 30 million KRW and only cash is recognized, effectively tripling the nominal threshold and imposing stronger actual capital constraints.
Regulators also suspended the listing of new single-stock leveraged products and related marketing, and plan to raise the minimum trading unit from 1 share to 20 shares.
This round of speculative heating also has a clear concentration background. By July 15, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together accounted for 52% of the total KOSPI market capitalization, compared to only 34% at the end of 2025. From late May to early July, the annualized volatility of the two companies' stocks reached 96% and 113%, respectively. Concentrated weighting and amplified volatility, combined with daily double leverage, make capital inflows and outflows easily affect the index in reverse.
After the trading cool-down, intraday volatility in the Korean market has eased somewhat, but this can only be considered a preliminary signal. The decline in leveraged ETF trading share can reduce additional shocks caused by chasing highs and selling lows, but it cannot change the two underlying factors of excessive semiconductor weighting and global tech stock volatility.
This matter also has reference value for the crypto market. Limiting leverage caps, raising entry capital, and suspending product expansion can all quickly reduce trading volume and open interest; short-term price stabilization does not mean risk appetite has truly recovered. To judge whether deleveraging has ended, one must continue to observe trading volume, position size, and whether the spot market can absorb liquidity again.
#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成，波幅收窄 #Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours rise 13%
Palantir announced its Q2 earnings after the U.S. market closed on August 3, delivering results far exceeding expectations. The company's revenue for the quarter reached $1.94 billion, a year-over-year increase of 93%, surpassing the market expectation of about $1.81 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.41, also significantly better than the expected $0.35. The growth was mainly driven by U.S. business: U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million, up 149% year-over-year; U.S. government revenue increased 90% year-over-year. More importantly, the guidance was raised. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion, an increase of about 82% year-over-year; the full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance was raised from the previous $3.22 billion to over $3.42 billion. The stock price rose about 13% after hours, exceeding the implied volatility range of options. The significance of this report to the market is straightforward: amid cooling AI hype and pressure on some tech stocks, Palantir has proven the real demand for AI applications through solid commercial growth. The more than doubling of U.S. commercial revenue indicates that enterprise willingness to pay remains, not solely supported by government orders. The stock price, which had fallen about 29% this year, quickly rebounded after this earnings report, also indicating that the market's pricing logic of "digital + guidance" remains effective. The quarterly data is the entry ticket, but the guidance truly determines the subsequent valuation space. Of course, after high growth, the market will pay more attention to whether it can be sustained. Whether the full-year guidance can be successfully met and whether the expansion of commercial customers is stable will be the core focus in the coming quarters. The progress of AI application implementation will also continue to affect sentiment in related sectors. Overall, Palantir's earnings report provides positive feedback for the AI track, with short-term sentiment warming up, but actual execution still needs to be closely watched.
$XPLTR $PLTR [Capital One Responds to Trump's "De-banking" Allegations: Account Closure Underwent Months of Compliance Review]
1. Core Interpretation of the Incident.
The essence of this lawsuit is a dispute over the survival rights of real-world bank accounts. Trump's camp accuses the bank of freezing accounts due to political stance, while the bank attributes it entirely to anti-money laundering risk control.
Regardless of the court's final ruling, the fact that "traditional banks can shut down high-value political figures' accounts" has been established, which will continue to strengthen the narrative of crypto assets as a safe haven.
2. Bullish Logic.
Subjective risk control and account closure risks exist in real banks. The value story of Bitcoin, an asset not controlled by a single institution, will be amplified.
If the court later recognizes the existence of "de-banking," public opinion will spread widely, driving safe-haven funds into BTC. Even if the ruling favors the banks, this topic will repeatedly be circulated within the crypto community.
3. Operational Suggestions.
Do not speculate on short-term news stimuli; this judicial case has a long cycle and will not conclude quickly.
Accumulate BTC spot on dips, treating this matter as a long-term narrative catalyst.
Focus on court ruling milestones, avoid short-term contract speculation, prioritize spot holdings, and wait for valuation uplift driven by narrative fermentation.#特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
This week, the Trump family took two completely opposite paths under the same roof.
Their mining company AmericanBitcoin increased its BTC holdings despite losses, raising its Bitcoin holdings from 7,021 to 8,002, a 14% increase in a single quarter. On the other hand, Trump Media continued to sell coins, reducing its wallet from 11,542 to 4,261, leaving only pledged collateral.
One side is increasing holdings while losing money, the other is selling while profiting. Same family, same week, same market environment, completely opposite allocation directions.
Looking closely, the mining company’s loss of 57.2 million is not a cash outflow but a book impairment of Bitcoin holdings. The company’s mining main business revenue for the quarter was 67 million, production hit a record, and reserve increases were basically self-mined. They are not buying on the secondary market but holding onto the coins they mined themselves. On the other side, Trump Media’s coin sales are cash flow management; those coins were originally convertible bond collateral, which cannot be moved, so they hold them, and for those that can be moved, they lock in profits first.
The decision logic of the two companies is completely different and does not constitute a bullish or bearish signal. The mining company’s increase is based on production costs and self-mined retention, while the media’s reduction is based on cash flow and collateral management. What you see are two opposite operations backed by two completely different capital constraints.
This is actually a reminder for ordinary traders—any individual buying or selling behavior should not be simplified as a bullish or bearish signal. You don’t know the other party’s cost, capital pressure, or time horizon.
My view is simple: the mining company’s choice to increase holdings despite losses means that at the current price range, the long-term allocation logic of some producers still holds. This is a positive signal for the hash rate network and long-term supply structure. On the other hand, the media’s continuous reduction indicates that some early holders are choosing to realize liquidity at the current price range. The coexistence of these two operations itself signals chip turnover.
What do you think?
$BTC $SNDK $BICO As everyone knows, this is a reversal zone, also called the long-short mutual insult idiot zone.
The 4hr MACD has diverged. Subjectively, I think if it breaks through and holds above 6.4, there will be a rally~
To short, you at least have to wait for a position above 6.5~
$BTC #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Just now, for some reason, $SNDK suddenly rose a lot. Then I looked up some data, maybe because SKHYNIX and SKHYNIX released a new generation of storage standards? Then I checked Hynix's situation, and SKHYNIX is indeed rising, which perfectly confirms my view. If it's because of the new generation standard, I think $SNDK has actually risen quite a bit now. At least compared to $SKHYNIX, it's a bit higher. Why do I think so? This requires some simple analysis. —————————————————— Let's look at the trends of $SNDK and $SKHYNIX. You can see that $SNDK has already recovered its previous losses, but $SKHYNIX has not yet recovered its previous losses. So I say, $SNDK has indeed risen quite a bit at the moment. If simply comparing $SKYNIX alone doesn't prove much, we can also compare it with $MU. It can be seen that only $SNDK has recovered its previous losses; the other two storage giants have not. Therefore, I believe shorting $SNDK now is a good choice. —————————————————— Let's take another look at $SNDK's contract data. Some may wonder, since $SNDK is not a native crypto token contract, why should we still look at its contract data? MePurely handmade post, not AI
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at 3.5%—3.75%, yet there are 3 votes calling for an immediate rate hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield had already risen from about 4.50% in mid-June to 4.64% before the decision. This is not ordinary disagreement; the long end is pricing in a higher term premium in advance.
The $TLT on the OKX page was previously suppressed to $82.19, and staying put did not bring a decent rebound. The market’s reveal is here: bulls are waiting for a rate cut, but bonds are trading as if the "next step might be a rate hike."
I won’t take the first hit. If 82 doesn’t hold, continue to avoid; only if it climbs back above 83.7 and holds steady will I consider a recovery. Data as of 20:25 Beijing time on August 4, not investment advice.
#FromRateCutToRateHike #USTreasury #FederalReserve #InterestRateRisk AI bubble or US debt bubble, which one is more dangerous?
In my opinion, AI could be a bubble. But US public debt is the bigger risk.
On one side, there is over 40 trillion USD in public debt. On the other side, Big Tech has poured more than 1.1 trillion USD into AI in just the past few years.
If the AI bubble bursts, valuations will drop, capital will leave technology, and many companies will disappear. That is a shock to one industry.
But US public debt is different. It is the foundation of the global financial system. As the government has to borrow more and more to sustain growth, interest costs will continue to balloon. If confidence in US bonds declines, the impact will spread to stocks, real estate, gold, and even Bitcoin.
That doesn’t mean you should avoid AI or sell all your assets. In my view, investors should do the opposite: diversify their portfolios, prioritize quality assets, and limit leverage. Periods of high uncertainty often create the greatest opportunities for those who maintain liquidity and discipline.
I don’t think AI will disappear. Nor do I think the US will default. But between a valuation bubble and a systemic bubble, I will watch the US debt bubble more closely.
The AI bubble might cause you to lose an investment. The US debt bubble could force the entire market to reprice. The winners won’t be those who guess the exact moment the bubble bursts, but those who build portfolios resilient enough to survive it.
In your opinion, which bomb will explode first in the next 10 years? **$GRVT/USDT Price Analysis & Short-Term Outlook**
GRVT is a newly listed pair currently trading around **$GRVT 0.26530**. After an initial high spike to **$0.34850** following its launch (from a low of $0.05000), the price is currently settling into a tight consolidation range between **$GRVT 0.25479** and **$0.27600**.
### **Key Levels to Watch**
* **Resistance (Ceiling):** **$0.27600** (24h High) and **$0.34850** (All-Time High)
A breakout above **$0.27600** is the first step toward regaining strength to test the launch peak.
* **Support (Floor):** **$0.25479** (24h Low) and **$0.25000** (Psychological Level)
Because historical chart data is limited (MA10 and MA20 are not yet calculated), **$0.25000** acts as the main base level holding up current prices.
### **Price Scenarios**
**1. Bullish Breakout (Expansion Phase):**
* **Trigger:** Increased buying volume driving a daily close above **$0.27600**.
* **Target:** A push toward **$0.30000**, with potential to retest the all-time high near **$0.34800**.
**2. Consolidation / Downside Test (Range Phase):**
* **Trigger:** Continued low volume and failure to clear $0.27600 resistance.
* **Target:** Price continues trading sideways between **$0.25000 and $0.27000**. A dip below **$0.25000** could test lower support around **$0.22000**.
### **Summary**
As a newly listed token, GRVT is in its initial price discovery and consolidation phase. With the MA5 resting at **$GRVT 0.26939**, holding above **$0.25000** keeps the overall structure stable while waiting for a breakout move above **$0.27600**.
*Disclaimer: Newly listed cryptocurrencies carry heightened volatility and market risk. This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.* Memory chip sector: Broadly higher, Micron Technology rose over 3.68%, SanDisk gained over 4%, SK Hynix rose about 3%, Western Digital and Seagate Technology rose nearly 3% and 2.44% respectively Optical Communication Sector: Continued the upward trend, with Mywell Technology leading the gains over 5%, and Lumentum, Coherent, and Corning stocks all posting gains of over 3%-4%. Large indices: All three major stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.62%, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures also rose by 0.17% and 0.20%, respectively Market drivers: This rally was mainly driven by sustained growth in AI demand and a strengthening industry cycle. Institutional analysis points out that global memory chip sales have recently hit new highs, and the structural supply shortage is expected to persist until mid-2028. Negotiations over long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are further supporting market expectations. Although major tech stocks like Amazon and Google experienced slight pullbacks, the explosion in the semiconductor storage sector was the core highlight of today's pre-market market## $BICO/USDT Daily Chart Analysis & Prediction
Here is a breakdown of the current **BICO/USDT** daily chart and a prediction post ready to share:
### Chart Breakdown
* **Current Price:** $BICO 0.01728 (up 2.61% today)
* **24h Range:** High of $0.01987 / Low of $0.01620
* **Moving Averages (MA):** MA5 ($BICO 0.01473) has surged well above MA10 ($0.01347) and MA20 ($0.01356), showing a massive shift in short-term momentum following a sharp breakout.
* **Performance:** Up an impressive **44.63% over the last 7 days**, staging a powerful rebound after hitting recent lows near $0.01125.
* **Key Resistance:** Testing the upper boundary near the **$0.01987** high.
### 🚀 Prediction Post
**Title:** BICO is making massive moves! Is a continuation breakout next? 🚀🔥
* **Current Status:** BICO is trading strong at **$0.01728**, holding a massive **+44.63% gain over the last week** after a heavy surge in volume.
* **Technical View:** Short-term moving averages have flipped bullish, and the heavy green volume bars show that buyers have stepped back in control following the recent bottom.
* **Next Target:** The bulls are setting their sights back on the **$0.01987** peak. Breaking past that level cleanly could trigger another wave of heavy momentum.
* **What to watch:** Because of the huge recent rally, watch out for a healthy consolidation or a small retest near the **$0.01500–$0.01600** support area to build a base before the next leg up.
*Are you riding the BICO momentum or waiting for a pullback? Drop your game plan below! 👇*$BICO $SOL Feels like it might drop below 70 this month?
1. New macro risk: U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and funds closing carry trades will probably be the first to liquidate high-beat assets like SOL.
2. Upgrade vacuum period, no story to tell: Agave 4.2 feature activation is delayed until the 17th, Alpenglow even later, not until October. Recently, meme coins have no momentum, no good stories.
3. ETF inflows in July are too small, only 14 million, can't suppress selling pressure. Especially, on the candlestick chart, it has now formed a death cross, which doesn't look good.Looking at DeFi projects on August 4th, I would place Pendle in the category of "real demand exists, but TVL alone is not enough to judge."
Around 19:32 on CoinGecko, PENDLE was about $1.35, down approximately 7.5% over 7 days, with a market cap of about $232 million; at the same time on OKX, PENDLE-USDT was about 1.351, and on Binance about 1.349, with prices closely aligned. DefiLlama showed Pendle's TVL at about $1.179 billion, protocol volume in the last 24 hours around $15.3 million, fees about $10,900, and 7-day fees about $82,500.
My understanding is that Pendle's fundamental highlight lies in breaking future yields into tradable components. The more active RWA, re-staking, and on-chain interest rate markets become, the easier it is for Pendle to be used as a yield routing tool. But the risk is here too: a large TVL does not necessarily mean fees are substantial; yield products are also affected by underlying asset interest rates, maturity structures, and liquidity.
Would you value Pendle's TVL stickiness more, or whether fees can keep pace? If RWA yield enthusiasm cools down, what else can this type of yield trading protocol rely on to retain capital? #PENDLE #DeFi #RWAThe joint intervention between the US and Japan in the yen exchange rate is nominally aimed at preventing risks from spreading to US bonds in Japan, but the core principle behind this is that the US needs to avoid being drained by Japan in reverse! Unexpectedly, the yen risk that had been chased for a long time was ignored by everyone. Last week, a joint intervention by the US and Japan made this topic a market hotspot. From the yen stabilizing at 160, then increasing the risk of reaching 162, and eventually pushing it to the sensitive 165 zone, people seemed indifferent to yen risk. But the facts proved that the yen risk has always existed, and for the US, this risk is chain-related. Because the US and Japan are deeply tied to the alliance and economy, Japan cannot collapse. Especially at this sensitive stage, the development of yen risk expansion! 1. Since last year, the yen has continued to weaken, especially after the US-Iran policy in March, which increased inflationary pressures. Japan continues to face imported inflation pressures and expectations of a weaker yen, increasing the momentum to short the yen. 2. The Japanese government intervenes by raising interest rate expectations → → fiscal policy adjustments→ and has basically used a lot of available methods. As I said before, the more methods the Japanese government uses, but the increasingly uncontrolled the yen means the government has run out of options. This also means that the Japanese government and central bank have experienced serious policy divisions and loss of control. 3. Two months ago, Finance Minister Katayama frequently communicated with Bensent about exchange rate management, and Betcent's attitude gradually changed, shifting from initially default to now supporting exchange rate intervention. 4. The Japanese government has repeatedly made currency exchanges**$PEPE/USDT Price Analysis & Short-Term Outlook**
PEPE is currently trading near **$PEPE 0.000002908**, showing a modest gain after climbing from a recent low of **$PEPE 0.000002560**. The chart shows a series of higher lows, with moving averages starting to point upward again.
### **Key Levels to Watch**
* **Resistance (Ceiling):** **$0.000002992 – $0.000003104**
The 24-hour high is near $0.000002992, with the main local peak sitting at **$0.000003104**. Clearing this area is needed to start a stronger rally.
* **Support (Floor):** **$0.000002851** (MA5) and **$0.000002817** (MA20)
The moving averages sit close together beneath the current price and offer immediate support if sellers step in.
### **Price Scenarios**
**1. Bullish Breakout (Primary Trend):**
* **Trigger:** A clean push and daily close above **$0.000003000**.
* **Target:** A retest of **$0.000003100**, with room to push toward **$0.000003300**.
**2. Consolidation / Pullback:**
* **Trigger:** Rejection at the $0.000003000 resistance level.
* **Target:** A minor pullback toward the **$0.000002820 – $0.000002850** moving average zone to build strength.
### **Summary**
The short-term trend is leaning **bullish** as PEPE trades above its 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages (MA5 > MA10 > MA20). As long as the price stays above **$0.000002820**, buyers maintain control for another attempt to break **$0.000003100**.
*Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries market risk. This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.*$PEPE $MU is showing renewed bullish momentum as buyers continue supporting the current trend. Positive market participation is improving confidence, and sustained demand could strengthen the move further. The next move depends on continued buying pressure and healthy volume. Pro Tip: Wait for confirmed momentum before adding positions and always follow disciplined risk management.
#PalantirBeatAndRaise #MSTRSells1638BTC The market has become numb to bad news
1,638 BTC, average price $63,957, below the cost line of $75,419. A loss of $18.77 million.
Three months ago, this news could have smashed through $60,000. But this time, BTC only dipped briefly and quickly recovered. The daily drop was less than 1%.
The market is no longer afraid of this seller.
Where did the money go?
The proceeds from selling coins were precisely split in half: about $52.4 million paid as dividends on STRC preferred shares, about $52.3 million used to repurchase STRC. On the same day, Strategy also sold over 3 million shares of MSTR stock, raising $290 million, pushing the dollar reserves to $4 billion.
In essence, it’s simple: they are exchanging Bitcoin for cash to preserve the face value of the preferred shares.
STRC has a face value of $100, but now it’s only worth $89.46. Without paying a 12% dividend, investors would flee. Without repurchasing, the price can’t be stabilized. Selling coins is the only option, unrelated to bullish or bearish views.
Three numbers explain why BTC didn’t drop
First, the sell volume is too small. 1,638 BTC, accounting for 0.19% of total holdings. Compared to daily spot trading volume, this amount barely makes a splash.
Second, buying far exceeds selling. In the first seven months, Strategy bought 174,895 BTC and sold 3,620 BTC. Buying is 48 times selling. The current 1,638 BTC is just a fraction of the 184,000 BTC.
Third, this is already the third time. First time 32 BTC, second time 3,588 BTC, third time 1,638 BTC. From "big news" to "routine operation," the market has become desensitized.
The strategy has changed
The old approach was: issue debt to buy coins → BTC rises → MSTR rises → issue more debt to buy coins. The flywheel worked because MSTR had a premium, BTC was rising, and preferred shares could be issued.
Now? BTC dropped to $60,000, MSTR is at a discount, STRC is below face value. The flywheel stopped and must shift gears.
The new approach is: sell coins to pay interest, repurchase to stabilize price, maintain liquidity, and wait for STRC to return to $100 before restarting buying coins. It’s not that they won’t buy, but they will wait until conditions mature.
Conclusion
BTC didn’t drop because the market has read the script — this is not "seller bearish and running away," it’s "the company is forced by a 12% dividend to sell coins for cash." There is a huge difference between the two.
A bad news fully digested by the market is no longer bad news. What the market is really waiting for now is when STRC will return to $100 — that will be the signal for Strategy to resume large-scale buying.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 Summary of the Impact of US-Iran Negotiation News on Four Asset Classes
🔥Event
On August 4, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled that a cooperation agreement related to the Strait of Hormuz is highly likely to be finalized this Tuesday or Wednesday, raising hopes for a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East.
💕Crude Oil
The Strait of Hormuz handles 30% of the world's seaborne crude oil transport. Recently, tensions have been high, and oil prices have already factored in a risk premium. If negotiations proceed smoothly, the risk of supply disruption through the strait will decrease, and oil prices are expected to face downward pressure and adjust accordingly. Note that this is currently a unilateral optimistic forecast from the US side; no formal agreement has been signed yet. If talks collapse, oil prices will rebound immediately.
💕Gold
Short-term weakness is expected, but no deep decline. On one hand, easing Middle East tensions will lead to a gradual withdrawal of safe-haven funds; lower oil prices will reduce inflation expectations, weakening gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. On the other hand, the 30-year US Treasury yield remains at multi-year highs, with real interest rates elevated, supporting gold prices. The market is more likely to experience mild volatility and correction rather than a sharp one-sided drop.
💕US Treasuries
A short-term breather is expected, but the long-term trend remains unchanged. Falling oil prices can reduce market concerns about persistent long-term inflation, slowing the pace of long-term bond selling. The 30-year Treasury yield has a chance to decline in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve's long-term stance of maintaining high interest rates remains unchanged. This geopolitical positive alone cannot reverse the overall weakness in long-term bonds; yields will only experience temporary oscillation and consolidation.
💕US Stocks
Overall sentiment improves, but sector divergence is evident.
Positive factors: Lower oil prices reduce corporate energy expenses and ease inflationary pressures; with reduced geopolitical risks, investors are willing to take on higher risk.
Sector differentiation: Consumer and tech growth sectors benefit, while oil and gas sectors face pressure as oil prices weaken.
Ceiling remains: High long-term Treasury yields continue to suppress valuations. This rally is mainly a short-term sentiment recovery, with limited upside for the broader market.
💕Crypto Market Correlation Reference
Declining risk aversion has a weak pull on Bitcoin; high long-term Treasury yields remain the main suppressing factor. The market is likely to continue range-bound oscillation.On July 31, New York State Attorney General Letitia James submitted a written testimony to the Senate. The content is just one thing: your bill, which is over 600 pages long, must be changed. She was talking about the CLARITY Act—legislation on crypto market structure that the U.S. Congress had been brewing for a whole year. According to the original plan, the bill was to pass before the August recess, clearly defining regulatory boundaries for the entire crypto industry. But James's testimony has cracked a crack. What she worries about is not what the bill says, but what it doesn't say. Federal priority clause. These five words sound boring, but what they mean is: once federal law passes, state-level anti-fraud laws must be sidelined. New York State prosecutors became anxious. They investigated financial fraud cases for over a decade, from Madoff to various altcoin scams, all relying on state law. Now the federal government says "I'll manage," but how and to what extent the regulation is vaguely written in the bill. To put it bluntly, this isn't a technical issue, but a power issue. Who decides who decides? The core logic behind the CLARITY Act is the version passed by the House in July 2025, and the action is very straightforward: crypto regulatory authority is drawn between the SEC and the CFTC. The SEC manages "investment contracts," while the CFTC manages "digital commodity spots." Simple and direct, but clear. By May 2026, the Senate version will have been completely rebuilt and over. From 6 volumes to 9 volumes, it is no longer classified by "who controls what," but by "what scenario" — securities issuance, anti-money laundering,$AMZN just crossed the $3 trillion mark, but the market is actually rewarding not the e-commerce side, but AWS.
Last quarter, AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, the fastest growth in over four years, and the backlog of contracts on hand also rose to $496 billion. This indicates that the money for AI data centers is starting to turn into real orders. (Reuters)
But the cost is not small. Amazon has raised its capital expenditure to $220 billion this year, and free cash flow over the past 12 months has turned negative $7.6 billion.
The stock price can rise now because the market temporarily believes this spending is worthwhile. Once AWS growth slows down, the cash flow issue will be brought back into focus.
I won’t chase at the recent all-time high; I’ll wait to see if funds are willing to continue buying after a pullback.
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Seasonal pattern of BTC in the US midterm election year:
Historical data:
August–September 2018: BTC dropped about 20%
August–September 2022: BTC dropped about 18%
August–September 2026: ?
Reasons:
Policy uncertainty in midterm election years
Market often faces a pullback after rebounding in July
Liquidity usually weakens at the end of summer
The pattern exists, but the context and decline vary each year. $VIC surged 82% in a single day, catalyzing fundamentals for revaluation. It's not pure air coins: Viction was formerly TomoChain, an EVM-compatible Layer 1 that has been running for years. However, the current ecosystem is very small, the token faces obvious inflationary pressure, and Binance has already labeled it as "monitored." Chasing at the high now is clearly riskier than the odds. The most dangerous signal is: this means it is no longer priced by spot fundamentals, but is now dominated by contract positions, liquidations, and market making depth. Futures trading volume reached $163 million, more than seven times that of spot prices. Once short squeezing ends, new buying cannot keep up, and prices can fall at the same rate. How are the fundamentals of VIC? Viction is a PoS Layer 1 with features including: EVM compatibility; 150 masternodes; VRC25 token standard, with gas paid by project teams; VIC is used for staking, node security, and governance; In 2023, TomoChain was renamed Viction. The problem is that there are too many similar low-fee EVM chains, and Viction currently has not established a clear product moat. Recent data from Dune shows that Viction has about 3.35 million transactions and 19,800 active addresses per week, but DeFi TVL is only about $153,500. Based on a market cap of $7.48 million, the market cap/TVL is close to 49 times. Trading activity is still there, but the accumulation of real on-chain funds is very weak. Dune Viction data is used#特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
The Trump family played an interesting capital game this week. American Bitcoin suffered a loss of $57.2 million but continued to increase its $BTC holdings, rising from 7,021 to 8,002 coins; meanwhile, Trump Media dismantled its BTC treasury, turning Bitcoin towards collateral use. The same family, in the same market environment, made completely opposite decisions.
I tend to agree with the logic behind American Bitcoin. Because what it values is not short-term profit but long-term chips. The book losses mostly come from BTC fair value fluctuations and do not represent direct cash flow loss; on the contrary, it is continuously accumulating assets during the downturn.
It's like buying a mine in a bear market: short-term costs are high and returns are low, but if resource prices rise in the future, the pre-occupied reserves become the greatest advantage.
Of course, the premise of hoarding coins is survival. The Bitcoin market has never been about who shouts the loudest but who can endure the cycle.
Trump Media chooses to increase liquidity, which is more defensive; American Bitcoin chooses to keep adding positions, which is more offensive.
One is waiting for the wind, the other is building a ship to catch the wind.
If BTC enters a new bull market in the future, those who accumulate chips today may gain greater returns; but if the cycle judgment is wrong, the importance of cash flow management will also be magnified.
These two choices essentially represent two market views: do you believe in Bitcoin's future value explosion, or do you value current capital safety more?
The above is just a personal opinion! Many coin hoarders privately complain about a common problem: after starting BTC dollar-cost averaging, they encounter a prolonged bear market, with continuous downturns and fluctuations for two or three years, resulting in long-term floating losses. The position returns remain far from the preset 100% and 200% stepped take-profit targets, and some even suspect the strategy is ineffective, struggling with whether to stop investing or adjust the take-profit standards. BTC has a four-year halving cycle, with occasionally longer-than-expected bottoming bear markets, and serious delays in dollar-cost investment progress are common. Today, we break down the four core reasons why "long bears fail to reach take-profit lines," combined with optimized practical solutions tailored to the BTC cycle, so you don't have to passively endure a bear market. 1. Long-term bear regular investment finds it hard to reach the take-profit target, four fundamental reasons 1. Continuous regular investment keeps raising the average holding cost. During the bear market's bottom and volatility, you still buy BTC weekly or monthly, and new funds keep diluting and driving up overall costs. Even if the market rebounds slightly, the new chips bought will dilute the overall account yield, making it difficult to quickly reach the preset take-profit profit. For example: the initial investment cost was 20,000 U, and during the bear market, the average new purchase price was 18,000 U, 16,000 U, and 22,000 U fluctuating back and forth, causing the overall average holding price to keep rising, making it difficult for a small rebound to double overall. 2. Midway through the bear market, panic and cut off investments, resulting in insufficient chip accumulation. Many people cannot withstand long-term unrealized losses, shut down regular investment midway, and lose a large amount of low-priced chips. When the market recovers, the total BTC held is too small, and the overall profit base is very low, even in terms of market conditionsThere is new information about the geopolitical line: Trump said the U.S.-Iran negotiations were "ongoing" and said it was Iran's "last chance" to reach a deal. The market's first reaction is, of course, "good risk assets." But the storytelling thing depends on what it changes. The so-called "last chance" can be understood as having a chance to negotiate, with a downgrade in sight, or as an ultimatum, and taking action if the talks fail. In the same sentence, each person takes what they need. In the recent rebound of $BTC, it is difficult to distinguish how much of it is due to price easing and how much is just short-covering. My attitude: Politicians' statements are signals in the noise, not certainty in the signals. Don't use a negotiation call to determine the position's life or death. Walk and watch.$BTC The US and Japan's joint intervention can't save the yen; the Bank of Japan is caught in a dilemma
The yen is stuck in a cycle of "intervention rebound followed by renewed weakness." The root cause lies in the widening US-Japan interest rate differential, which has now expanded to 2.8 percentage points. As long as this spread does not narrow, depreciation pressure will be hard to eliminate.
Japan's fiscal policy still leans toward stimulus, with a consumption tax cut, leaving the responsibility of stabilizing the exchange rate to the central bank. Institutions estimate that Japan's net debt pressure is not as exaggerated as the headline figures suggest, making a rate hike in September feasible.
The US also has its own calculations in coordinated intervention: fearing Japan might sell off $1.1 trillion in US debt, further raising US financing costs, it suggests Japan use repurchase tools to avoid directly dumping US bonds.
History tells us that foreign exchange intervention can only provide short-term market relief. With US inflation remaining high and rate cuts far off, if the Bank of Japan does not act in September, the effect of this round of intervention will most likely dissipate quickly.
#美日确认联合购汇 BTC August Outlook: All Negative Factors Priced In, $70,000 Is Not Far Away
There is a reality in the current market that most people overlook: liquidity is extremely scarce, and a very small number of market makers/whales can influence the price.
This is not a conspiracy theory but an objective rule during liquidity drought periods. The number of institutions participating in selling is limited, especially at the key psychological level of $60,000, where the marginal selling pressure is actually very low.
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MicroStrategy's "Sell Story" Is Losing Its Effect
Recently, MicroStrategy's selling events have had a negligible impact on BTC's price.
What is more noteworthy is the change in sentiment: retail investors have gradually evolved from absolute panic to desensitization and indifference—this is a typical sign that "all negative factors are priced in." When the market no longer reacts strongly to a negative news item, it means that the negative has been fully priced.
Once MicroStrategy's STRC returns to profitability (i.e., convertible bond arbitrage trades become profitable again), they will start buying back Bitcoin.
At that time, the market will see a wave of incremental funds from institutional-level buying, entering a positive cycle of "new money buying coins → price rising → more funds entering."
Logical chain deduction:
Liquidity drought → marginal selling pressure exhaustion → negative news desensitization → STRC break-even triggers buyback → new money entry → positive spiral starts
Time window judgment:
If there are no independent major negative events ahead (such as black swan regulatory crackdowns or sudden macroeconomic deterioration), the August market is very likely not to disappoint.
August target: $70,000.
In terms of timing, it may be reached before mid-August.
A strong catalyst—such as an unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll report leading to increased rate cut expectations—could directly ignite this rally.
Key points for you:
1. Liquidity shortage is a double-edged sword—easy to lose control during declines, but once reversed, the rise can be unstoppable;
2. Retail investors' desensitization to MicroStrategy selling is the most important sentiment signal that negatives are fully priced in;
3. STRC break-even is the key to starting the positive cycle—MicroStrategy's buying return may be the most underestimated catalyst in August;
4. $70,000 is not the end, but the target—the time window points to before mid-August;
5. No independent negative news is the biggest positive—the current biggest risk comes from external variables, not structural issues within BTC itself.
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#BTC #AugustOutlook #AllNegativePricedIn #MicroStrategyBuyback #70000USD
⚠️ This article is a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. BTC prices are influenced by multiple factors; please ensure proper risk control and make rational decisions.📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.04 (Tuesday)
📌 Core Judgment
**Crude oil plunged, US manufacturing data was strong, and tech company earnings exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in risk assets.** However, the US manufacturing price index remains high, and expectations for Fed rate hikes have not disappeared, so this currently looks more like a risk appetite recovery rather than confirmation of a new full-scale rally.
🔥 Key Points Today
① Storage Industry Chain: Strong demand, but increased long-term supply risks
US manufacturing data indicates that storage chips and semiconductors are still in shortage and prices are still rising, showing that AI server demand has not collapsed.
Two important changes have appeared in the industry:
Sandisk and SK Hynix are promoting the high bandwidth flash (HBF) standard, which may expand NAND applications in AI inference;
Changxin Technology plans to continue expanding DRAM capacity, with the market preemptively pricing in supply pressure for 2027–2028.
My judgment: In the short term, the storage industry still benefits from AI demand and price increases, but in the long term, it is necessary to guard against overcapacity caused by simultaneous expansions from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin.
② SanDisk Earnings Report as a Key Validation for the Storage Sector
SanDisk will release its earnings report in the early morning of August 6 Beijing time. Focus on enterprise SSD demand, NAND prices, inventory status, and HBF commercialization progress.
If management continues to provide strong demand and price guidance, recent storage stock adjustments are more likely deleveraging; if inventory or demand weakens, the sector may continue to digest valuations.
③ AMD Earnings Tonight to Validate AI Hardware Demand
AMD will release its earnings report in the early morning of August 5 Beijing time. The market mainly focuses on AI accelerator card orders, MI350 shipments, and second-half data center revenue guidance.
If AMD raises AI revenue expectations, it will prove that demand is spreading from NVIDIA to other suppliers, which will also benefit HBM, DRAM, and the server storage industry chain.
④ Changxin Technology Short-Term Rebound, Long-Term Expansion Outlook
Changxin Technology rebounded to about 55 yuan in early trading. The current stock price is still influenced by the low float of new shares and storage sector heat, so short-term volatility will be relatively large.
Changxin's expansion will not immediately change storage prices this year but may affect the industry's supply pattern over the next two years. At this stage, it is more suitable to observe as a long-term competitive variable rather than chasing highs or judging industry reversals based on single-day price moves.
⑤ Simple Observation of BTC and HYPE
BTC has not fully followed the Nasdaq rebound, indicating that risk appetite in the crypto market is weaker than in US stocks. Short-term support is at 62,200–63,000 USD; only after stabilizing above 64,000 USD can it be considered strong.
HYPE is still weak around 52 USD; the long-term platform logic has not changed, but short-term chip pressure remains, so it is temporarily unsuitable for high-leverage bottom-fishing.
📅 Upcoming Focus
Early morning August 5: AMD earnings
August 5: US ADP employment, ISM services
Early morning August 6: SanDisk earnings
Evening August 7: US nonfarm payroll report
💡 My View
**The storage industry is currently not facing demand collapse but rather "near-term undersupply and long-term concerns about overcapacity due to expansion."** The upcoming AMD and SanDisk earnings will determine whether this recovery can continue. In the short term, you can continue to watch Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung, but it is better to wait for earnings confirmation and not immediately go heavy just because of large declines.
In summary: AI demand remains strong, but whether storage stocks can truly stabilize depends on whether earnings reports can prove that current high demand can be sustained. The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.23%, its highest level in nearly two decades. The last time it traded around this level was just before the 2007 financial crisis.
The biggest debate in the market isn't whether higher yields matter—it's whether this marks the peak or the beginning of a prolonged high-yield environment.
Bulls argue that if the US economy cools and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts strengthen, long-term yields could gradually move lower.
Bears see a different picture. They point to the expanding US fiscal deficit and massive Treasury issuance, arguing that investors will continue demanding higher returns to hold long-term government debt. If that's the case, yields could stay elevated for much longer.
The 30-year Treasury yield remains one of the world's most important pricing benchmarks. When it climbs above 5%, the effects ripple across global markets—pressuring stock valuations, raising borrowing costs, influencing gold prices, and reshaping the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
As long-term yields remain this high, every risk asset, including Bitcoin, faces a tougher environment for attracting capital.
$BTC $SNDK $HOME
#BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise #FedSplitGoesPublic