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The crypto industry has already invested about $189 million for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, which is 11.2% higher than the $170 million for 2024. However, in prediction markets, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law within the year has dropped from 82% at the beginning of the year to about 24.5%.
Money is in play, but the votes are not yet secured.
Last year, the House passed the bill with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, a support rate of about 68.7%; in May this year, the Senate Banking Committee approved the new text with a 15 to 9 vote, a 62.5% support rate. Both votes seemed to have a clear advantage, but the full Senate still needs to pass it again.
For ordinary legislation facing prolonged debate, at least 16 senators must sign a motion to end debate, then 60 votes are needed to pass the procedural hurdle. Even if successful, the subsequent review time can still reach 30 hours. The August 7 recess window is approaching, and there is still no confirmed full Senate vote schedule in the public agenda, which is where the real tension of the "72 hours" lies.
The concentration of political funds is also very high. Fairshake has raised over $136 million in this round. The top 10 candidates receiving the most investment have collectively obtained about $35.35 million, with the top three alone accounting for $23.07 million, about 65%. The industry is already competing for the next Congress but still cannot guarantee that this Congress will send the bill to the president's desk.
The bill is stuck not only because of partisan vote counts.
Democrats demand adding ethics provisions targeting government officials holding and profiting from crypto assets, directly pointing to about $1.4 billion in crypto gains by the Trump family; the banking industry continues to oppose some stablecoin reward arrangements, fearing funds will flow from bank deposits to on-chain dollars; opponents also demand strengthening DeFi, anti-money laundering, and national security provisions.
The impact of this bill on the market is very specific: it will redefine the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, set registration, asset segregation, and market monitoring requirements for digital commodity trading platforms, and clarify the legal treatment of staking, liquid staking, and some programmatic token distributions.
As of 10:22 Beijing time, BTC is about $64,351, with a daily range of $63,403 to $64,435, a volatility of about 1.6%. The price remains in a narrow wait, indicating the market has not pre-committed to a one-sided outcome of the bill passing or failing.
The next most effective signals are only three: whether a formal motion to end debate is submitted, whether 16 signatories appear, and whether the procedural vote can reach 60 votes. Before these actions occur, the $189 million political investment represents influence but does not mean the bill has already secured a pass.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 The Restart Path After a Novice's Bankruptcy 09｜Having the right long-term perspective doesn't necessarily mean your current trades are correct; the market can first move in the opposite direction enough to make you unable to hold on.
💭Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital initially achieved great success by going long on oil and energy, but during the 2008 financial crisis, it failed to respond timely to the sharp reversals in oil prices and the US dollar, and subsequently misjudged the timing of the stock market rebound multiple times. Although his long-term views on energy scarcity and economic structural issues were not entirely wrong, incorrect timing of entries and exits and poor risk management led to consecutive losses for the fund, massive investor withdrawals, and ultimately a shrinkage of about 90% in asset size.
This teaches us:
First, having the right long-term direction doesn't mean it's suitable to enter the market now.
Second, no matter how reasonable the view, stop-loss and risk control are necessary.
Third, the market may make you suffer huge losses before proving you right.
Finally, Clarium left an important trading lesson:
Looking far ahead is important, but you also have to get through the path right in front of you.
#ContractTrading #MacroTrading #OilPrice #CrudeOilTrading #TradingMindset #TradingDiscipline #RiskManagement #MistimedEntry #TradingReflection #RestartPathAfterANovicesBankruptcy "The Most Expensive 5K for BTC: Direction Hasn't Emerged Yet, Beware of Account Wear"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 92
Aspirin · Cyclical Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective
BTC is currently around 64.1K, only about $200 above the rising 200-week moving average; the resistance zone at the 20/21-week mark has dropped to 68.6K to 68.9K. The two boundaries are only about 5K apart. Many see this narrow range and want to trade back and forth. What I see is a very expensive market: both bulls and bears have reasons, but neither has confirmation. If you force a bet, you might guess the right direction but end up losing on entry.
1. Why is this 5K expensive?
Chasing longs at 66.5K, with the first resistance at 68.8K, offers a potential upside of about 3.5%; if the stop loss is set below 63.5K, you risk about a 4.5% drawdown. The risk-reward ratio is less than 1.
Shorting directly at 64.2K is also uncomfortable. The price hasn't confirmed a breakdown yet, and right below is the 200-week moving average, meaning selling above long-term support. Even if the bearish direction is ultimately correct, shorts might be cleared out first by a rebound.
No need to debate bulls or bears here; just do the math. The potential gain in the middle of the range is less than the stop loss distance. Frequent trading will only turn your judgment edge into fees and slippage.
The two weekly lines continue to converge. The 200-week moving average is slowly rising, while the bear resistance band keeps moving down. Each week the price stays in this wedge, more positions chase the rally or bottom-fish; once a boundary is effectively broken, stop losses and covering orders will release simultaneously, and volatility will return.
2. Which side will expand in August?
In the past three mid-term years, BTC fell about 17.9%, 9.2%, and 13.9% in August respectively. With only three samples, I won't short just because the calendar flips to August.
Therefore, I lowered my position size for August. BTC rose about 21.0% and 16.8% in July 2018 and 2022 respectively, then retraced in August; this July only saw about a 7.3% rise. The safety cushion left by the rebound is thinner, and 69K hasn't been reclaimed. If the long-term moving average breaks in August, the correction will be harder to handle than in July.
History doesn't tell me to short now. It only reminds me not to use July's position size and patience in August.
Macro only leaves one fact that affects orders: the July meeting maintained rates at 9 to 3, with three dissenting votes all calling for a 25 basis point hike; no votes for a rate cut in the official tally.
For BTC, whether the Fed actually hikes is secondary; the market trades expectations first. Hot CPI, rising 2-year Treasury yields, and BTC breaking below 63.5K—these three pressures align in the same direction; if CPI cools and short-term rates fall, and BTC reclaims 69.2K, the bull breakout will be credible. Without price confirmation, just news, I won't change my position.
3. I only keep two reminders
Currently around 64.1K, I won't add leveraged longs. Existing long-term spot can be DCA'd gradually; funds planned for BTC allocation should only put the first 10%-15% between 62K and 64K, keeping at least half the cash for below 60K. Spot and contracts are accounted separately; unrealized losses can't be renamed as long-term investment by adding margin.
69.2K: If daily closes above, then retests 68.6K to 69.0K and holds, use one-third of planned position to go long; stop loss at 66.9K, first target 72.8K, remaining target 76K. If it spikes up without a pullback, I won't chase.
63.5K: If daily closes below, and rebound from 63.7K to 64.0K fails, use one-quarter of planned position to hedge; stop loss 65.2K, targets 61K and 58.2K. If intraday wick quickly recovers 64K, I won't chase shorts.
Between 63.5K and 69.2K, no new contracts opened. This is actually the most important rule.
I will leave two reminders in OKX at 63.5K and 69.2K, and after the alerts sound, watch daily closes and retests. Before triggers, risk budget stays in the account. The account doesn't need to prove my views daily.
Data notes: BTC real-time price as of August 4, 2026; moving averages calculated from BTC-USD weekly close prices; historical monthly returns based on Bitstamp BTC/USD open and close data; interest rate range and votes from the Fed's July 29 statement. The above is personal research and conditional trading plan, not investment advice.
#贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷，Circle压轴 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ 昨天的加密货币市场，又是一场典型的“少数派游戏”。 Coinglass的数据显示，过去24小时全网爆仓总额达到1.65亿美元。这个数字放在近期的市场里不算惊人，真正值得琢磨的是结构：空单爆仓1.07亿美元，多单爆仓5749万美元，空头的损失几乎是多头的两倍。 这意味着什么？简单说，市场又玩了一出“反向收割”。$ETH 很可能的情况是，盘面走出了一段下跌或者横盘弱势，让不少人形成了“还得跌”的判断，纷纷开空进场。结果行情突然掉头，一根阳线或者连续几波拉升，直接把空头止损线全部打穿。那些觉得自己看准了方向的空单，在价格反扑中成了被围猎的对象。$BTC 这种“主爆空单”的现象，往往透露两个信号，一是短期市场情绪过于集中了，空头扎堆的地方，反而成了对手盘最容易瞄准的猎物；二是在这个存量博弈的阶段，价格不一定走趋势，但一定走“让大多数人难受”的方向。昨晚的赢家是多头，但这份胜利能持续多久，谁也没法从单日数据里找到答案。 对于合约玩家来说，这又是一次关于“方向”和“节奏”孰轻孰重的提醒。看对了大方向，未必扛得住中间的一轮反抽；看错了，那更是瞬间出局。1.65亿美元里，是成千上万笔仓位的命运，也Hormuz negotiations stall, $CL crude oil hangs by a thread at the 75 mark!
News can be deceptive, but K-lines are not — the weak consolidation after this sharp drop in crude oil looks exactly like the calm before the storm.
News: Saying it's positive, but the reality is honest
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as Wednesday, causing oil prices to plunge below $80 immediately. But note, Iran is still denying direct talks with the U.S., and Rubio also admitted the agreement is "not yet finalized." In other words, the current oil price drop is based on expectations, not facts. If the negotiations hit a snag, shorts could be caught off guard at any time.
Technical: Moving averages in bearish alignment, the market is weak beyond belief
Currently, CL is oscillating around 75.80, with MA25 and MA99 pressing down hard above. On the 1-hour chart, the price hovers near the low of 74.66, unable to rebound past 76 — a typical weak rebound, waiting for direction. RSI is only 32.7, oversold but not extreme, indicating there is still room below.
Personal view: Range-bound between 75.5-78, gradually reduce positions, and adjust holdings to lower the average cost.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷，Circle压轴
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 The dampness outside the bunker was seeping along the sweatproof mask into the spine. In the center of the high-magnification scope’s crosshair, only a faint 2.7% of the target’s head was exposed—wind speed 15 knots, ballistic deviation was significant, definitely not the moment to pull the trigger.
Block height 961,632, the preset ambush node was set around August 9. The BIP-110 protocol clearing plan was about to enter the mandatory signaling phase. In the sniper’s view, this proposal was supposed to be a precise barrel clearing: blocking oversized script outputs, limiting undefined witness versions, cleaning up Taproot annex and other noisy transaction features. This was meant to eliminate noise and junk bunkers on the front line and set a 55% signaling control threshold. However, as of block 961,022, the actual firing situation of the heavy artillery mining power camp was disheartening—in the entire difficulty period, only 38 blocks signaled support, a 2.7% firing willingness far below the 55% tactical threshold.
The radicals in the trenches had already loaded the backup magazines. If the main mining pools still refused to show their cards before the lock-in period at block 963,648 at the end of August, supporters were even prepared to launch the most aggressive backup plan at the activation period of block 965,664 in early September—reactivating the proof-of-work algorithm change code to directly cleanse the existing miner power nodes.
This was a close-quarters battle erupting inside the defensive line. What was originally a pure transaction feature cleanup was evolving into a potential chain fork and mining power governance conflict. The confirmation timing of chips across various asset delivery networks was completely disrupted, recharge confirmation tags and risk control alerts were flashing frequently. Including the derivative defensive line linked to the US stock market target $XAMZN, it was also pulled into a very deep volatility trench in this front-line upheaval.
There was no tactical shooting with a perfect risk-reward ratio; all shots were suicidal. Frequently firing in a confusing situation with an uncertain wind direction and a crosshair suppression rate below 3%, bullets would only hit the bunker’s dirt, not killing the prey but exposing one’s own ambush trench. An excellent sniper could endure dozens of cold days and nights of lurking, keeping the heart rate tightly at forty beats per minute, letting mosquitoes and stray bullets rage around, but never chambering a round to fire.
When impatient hunters recklessly charged through the forked minefield and were shredded by shrapnel, the true assassin would only watch coldly as they fell, and in the microsecond when the stalemate broke and the trajectory was straight and unobstructed, silently push the armor-piercing round into the chamber.$BIO BIO rose 4% to $0.024 — Is Altseason returning?
The BIO Protocol (BIO) increased by 4% today, currently at $0.024, up about 2.6% over the past week.
On-chain signals are positive — BIO exchange reserves dropped 22% in the third week of August to the lowest level of the year, while staking plans locked over 25 million tokens. However, yesterday the team multisig address transferred about 80 million BIO (~$5.03M) to OKX and Binance, indicating potential selling pressure.
On the macro side, the share of altcoin trading volume on Binance has risen to 60%, while BTC is only 22%, suggesting capital is shifting from range-bound BTC to altcoins. The DeSci narrative of BIO and the V2 upgrade continue to develop, but this rise seems largely driven by capital rotation and sentiment.
Whether altseason is truly returning remains to be seen — closely watch changes in exchange reserves.#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BTC $SOL $BIO BIO Up 4% to 0.024 USD — Is the Altcoin Season Coming Back?
BIO Protocol (BIO) rose 4% today, trading at 0.024 USD, up ~2.6% over the past week.
Positive on-chain signals — BIO reserves on exchanges dropped 22% in the third week of August to the lowest level of the year, while staking plans have locked over 25 million tokens. However, yesterday the team's multi-signature address transferred ~80 million BIO (~5.03 million USD) to OKX and Binance, signaling potential selling pressure.
On the macro side, the altcoin trading volume share on Binance increased to 60%, while BTC only accounted for 22%, indicating capital is shifting from the struggling BTC to altcoins. BIO's DeSci story and the V2 upgrade are still under development, but this rally seems to be driven more by capital rotation and sentiment.
Whether the altcoin season truly returns remains to be seen — closely monitor exchange reserve fluctuations.#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BTC $ETH $BIO BIO rises 4% to 0.024, is the altcoin market coming back?
BIO Protocol (BIO) rose 4% today, reaching $0.024, with a nearly 2.6% increase over the past week.
On-chain capital signals are positive — in the third week of August, BIO exchange reserves sharply dropped 22% to a yearly low, and staking plans locked over 25 million tokens. However, note that yesterday the team’s multisig address transferred about 80 million BIO (approximately $5.03 million) to OKX and Binance, indicating potential selling pressure.
On the macro level, Binance’s altcoin trading volume share has risen to 60%, while Bitcoin accounts for only 22%, with some funds flowing from the sideways BTC to the altcoin sector. BIO’s DeSci narrative (decentralized science) and V2 upgrade are still progressing, but this rally is more driven by capital rotation and sentiment.
Whether the altcoin season returns remains to be seen; pay attention to changes in exchange reserves. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BTC $ETH I'm Ci Ge. Today, I'll highlight several key signals in the market. BTC is oscillating near 63,985, with the direction about to be selected. BTC is currently at 63,985, with the area between 64,500 and 65,500 forming a concentrated zone for short liquidation. A breakout could trigger short squeezes. Below 62,000, there is still long liquidation pressure between 62,000 and 63,500. The bullish and bearish forces are nearly balanced, but the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively hit record highs: the Nasdaq rose 2.59%, the Dow rose 1.71%, and the S&P 1.79%. The Dow closed above 54,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500 approached 7,750. US stocks are leading the way, and whether BTC follows is key. Geo-easing is currently the biggest macro variable. Becent says the Strait of Hormuz agreement is about to be reached, and Iran has abandoned its demand for full control over two-way shipping, with results possibly expected in four or five days. Oil prices continue to fall to $75.39, and geopolitical risk premiums are rapidly clearing out. This directly eased inflation expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in September falling from 67% to 58.4%. Tech stocks deliver on their earnings drive new highs in U.S. stocks. Palantir's stock price surged nearly 30%, with revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93%. Adjusted EPS of $0.41, fully validating the AI software monetization narrative. The semiconductor sector strengthened across the board, with Intel up 11%, Micron up 8%, and SanDisk up 11%. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit record highs, reflecting the resonance of geopolitical easing and earnings deliveries, not funds seeking risk. SanDisk Long Position: SanDisk rose 11% to around 1450, with the floating profit from 1206 long positions already exceededYesterday at $SPCX $110 I said to buy first out of respect, it surged to $130 during the session, but after the earnings report, it immediately crashed after hours, steadily sending everyone back down like a rocket recall.
The data is actually good, revenue doubled year-over-year to 7.81 billion, EPS loss of 0.09 is much better than the expected loss of 0.26, EBITDA 3.5 billion exceeded expectations by 75%.
But the single quarter capital expenditure was 18.4 billion, last quarter was only 10.1 billion, an 80% quarter-over-quarter increase, 18.4 billion is 2.36 times the quarterly revenue.
Meaning they earn 1 dollar but spend 2.4 dollars.
Interestingly, @SpaceX CFO said on the call that the money invested in AI will pay back in less than a year.
If it’s really that good, then how did the 500 million net loss come about? 🤣#BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方
BitMine officially became the world's largest ETH staker yesterday. 4,917,000 ETH are running on-chain, accounting for over 4% of Ethereum's total supply. The total holdings are 5,798,000 ETH, just 0.2% short of Tom Lee's "5% target" that he has been calling for over half a year.
But the most thought-provoking aspect of this "world's largest" is not the numbers, but the model.
Strategy buys BTC to hold and wait for price appreciation, BitMine buys ETH to generate yield. 4,917,000 ETH have already been staked, accounting for 85% of holdings, with an annualized income of about $247 million. In the quarter ending May 31, 98.3% of the company's total revenue of $46.535 million came from staking and validation. It is not a coin-holding company; it is an on-chain validator disguised as a publicly listed company.
Moreover, these people don't just buy and hold. Their self-operated validator network MAVAN is built by themselves, and most of the staking rewards are kept by themselves without sharing with third parties. They generate yield from staking while also buying weekly—last week they added another 10,399 ETH, marking the 57th consecutive week without interruption.
The biggest difference between this model and Strategy is: Strategy relies on market premium financing, while BitMine relies on staking rewards to cover costs.
BMNR's stock price has dropped more than 70% from its peak, but they still have money for buybacks—16.1 million common shares were repurchased in July, and the $4 billion buyback plan is still ongoing. Tom Lee's logic is that after ETH significantly outperforms QQQ, BMNR's stock price usually follows within a month. Whether this judgment is correct or not is another matter, but at least it shows they don't think they are losing money.
However, the $247 million annualized income, compared to $11.3 billion in total assets, yields only about 2.2%. Staking rewards can cover operating costs but cannot cover the stock price decline. Essentially, this model is betting on one thing—ETH's long-term price will rise. If ETH remains sideways or continues to fall, the $247 million staking income won't fill the asset depreciation gap.
The biggest risk is not whether staking rewards are high enough, but how long this "staking yield + continuous buying" flywheel can keep spinning when ETH prices remain depressed.$BTC
AI Capital Expenditure Frenzy: How Much Longer Can US Tech Giants Keep Rising?
Over the past two years, AI has become the biggest investment theme in global capital markets. From Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, to Amazon, Meta, and other tech giants, they have been continuously increasing investments in AI infrastructure. A capital expenditure race around computing power, chips, data centers, and power supply is underway.
The market's key question is:
How much longer can AI investment drive US tech stocks higher?
Currently, AI capital expenditure is still in an expansion phase.
Tech giants keep investing funds to build data centers, purchase AI chips, and develop cloud computing capabilities. Nvidia benefits from growing GPU demand, while AMD, Micron, SanDisk, and other industry chain companies also attract market attention. Essentially, the market is betting that AI will create a new productivity revolution similar to the internet era.
But investors also need to see the other side:
Increased capital expenditure does not mean profits will be realized immediately.
In the past, the market mainly traded on the "future imagination space" of AI, but now it is entering the "commercial validation stage."
Whether tech giants can continue to rise in the future depends on three factors:
First, whether AI revenue growth matches the investment.
If companies invest heavily in building AI infrastructure but cannot quickly convert it into profits, the market may reassess valuations.
Second, whether AI applications truly take hold.
Currently, AI infrastructure demand is strong, but applications that can generate large-scale revenue are still developing.
Third, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy environment.
Tech stock valuations heavily depend on liquidity. If rate cut expectations strengthen, funds may continue flowing into growth assets; if interest rates remain high for a long time, high-valuation tech stocks may face pressure.
For the crypto space, the AI capital expenditure trend also has significant impact.
BTC's price movement has increasingly been influenced by US stocks:
AI tech stocks rise
↓
Market risk appetite increases
↓
Institutional funds seek high-yield assets
↓
Risk assets like BTC, ETH benefit
Conversely, if the AI sector undergoes a large-scale correction and the Nasdaq comes under pressure, it may also lead to a short-term pullback in the crypto market.
However, in the long term, AI and the crypto market are not simply competitors but may form a new tech cycle. AI provides a computing power revolution, blockchain offers value transfer and digital asset systems, both are important components of the future digital economy.
In summary:
The AI capital expenditure wave is not ending in the short term, but the market has shifted from "speculating on expectations" to "watching for realization."
The companies that can sustain growth in the future are not just those investing the most, but those that can convert AI technology into actual revenue and profits.
For traders, the focus should not only be on stock price fluctuations but also on whether capital continues to recognize the AI industry trend.
In one sentence:
The AI rally will not end just because investment stops, but if profits cannot keep up, the market will definitely reprice.A $57M loss… yet they’re still buying more BTC. Sounds crazy at first, right?
Most companies slash investments after posting losses. But American Bitcoin, the mining company backed by the Trump family, is doing the exact opposite.
Its latest earnings showed a net loss of roughly $57.2 million, largely driven by Bitcoin’s price swings and accounting write-downs. Instead of selling coins to improve the numbers, the company kept accumulating.
By the end of June, its treasury had grown to about 8,002 BTC, roughly 14% more than the previous quarter. It also mined 932 BTC during the quarter—the strongest production since the company was launched.
To me, that’s the interesting part. The strategy doesn’t seem focused on making the next earnings report look pretty. It’s about increasing Bitcoin exposure while prices remain well below what they believe is long-term value.
Does that guarantee they’ll be right? Not at all. If BTC stays weak for longer, holding a larger treasury also means bigger swings on future balance sheets.
Still, it’s a reminder that some companies measure success by how many coins they accumulate, not by how smooth one quarter’s earnings look.
Sometimes the market rewards patience. Sometimes it punishes it first. The hard part is knowing which cycle you’re actually in.
$BTC $WLFI $ETH
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Overnight, SanDisk surged sharply in the US stock market, closing at $1427.62 with a single-day surge of +10.84%. The intraday high reached $1446.62 and the low was $1340. Trading volume and turnover rate both expanded, with the entire storage sector strengthening (Micron and SK Hynix also surged).
OKEx contracts followed the strong upward trend of the US stock market over 24 hours, with a 24h low near 1266 and a high near 1447. The current price is running close to the US stock price, with a slight premium in after-hours contracts. Since the July low of 998, a V-shaped rebound has formed, and today's volume surge reflects strong short-term bullish sentiment, though historical resistance above remains heavy.
Contract characteristics reminder: During US market open hours, contracts align closely with spot prices. After US market close, liquidity drops overnight, which may cause spikes, slippage, and abnormal fluctuations. The 8-hour funding rate fluctuates with the market, and long positions incur funding costs.
Key price levels (contract pegged to USD)
- Short-term support:
First support 1340‑1360 (today's US market open low, intraday long defense level);
Strong support 1280‑1300, if the price falls below this range, the current short-term strong upward momentum will slow down.
- Short-term resistance:
First resistance 1445‑1460 (today's intraday high area);
Strong resistance 1500‑1520, where a large amount of previous trapped positions accumulate. Sustained volume is needed to break through; if it holds above 1520, the rebound space will further open, targeting around 1600 as the institutional target price.
Core drivers of the rise
1. Sector-wide rally: The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged significantly. AI storage demand continues to attract capital interest. Google and other cloud providers joined the AI storage new standards alliance, raising market expectations for storage prosperity.
2. Earnings expectations catalyst: SanDisk is set to release its latest earnings report on August 5. Institutions anticipate strong results, with Wells Fargo raising its target price to $1620. Capital is positioning early for a long.
3. Macro environment improvement: US Treasury yields have fallen, easing valuation pressure on growth tech stocks in the short term. Highly elastic storage stocks are undergoing recovery.
4. Contract short squeeze effect: Previously heavy short positions, price rally triggers cascading short liquidations, further pushing contract prices upward.
Three scenario simulations
1. Base scenario (highest probability): Strong consolidation between 1360‑1460 to digest profits, awaiting tomorrow's earnings release. If earnings meet or exceed expectations, a push toward the 1500 level is possible; if earnings disappoint, profit-taking and a pullback are likely.
2. Bullish scenario: Volume surge holds above 1460, breaking through strong resistance at 1500‑1520, continuing the rebound to challenge the 1600 target.
3. Bearish scenario: Earnings rally fades, price breaks below 1340 support, short-term longs take profits, retesting the 1280‑1300 range. Loss of $57 million, why is the Trump family still aggressively accumulating $BTC?
The typical first reaction for many companies after large losses is usually to cut back on investments and reduce risks.
However, American Bitcoin, the Bitcoin mining company supported by the Trump family, has chosen a completely opposite path.
The latest financial report shows the company’s net loss in the second quarter was about $57.2 million, mainly due to asset impairment from Bitcoin price fluctuations rather than operational deterioration.
But what’s more noteworthy is another set of data.
The company not only did not reduce its Bitcoin holdings but actually increased them.
As of the end of June, it held 8,002 BTC, an increase of about 14% compared to the previous quarter; meanwhile, it mined 932 BTC in the second quarter, a new high since the company’s establishment.
This means their core strategy has not changed.
Short-term profits are not the most important goal; what truly matters is continuously accumulating Bitcoin and holding chips for a larger future cycle.
In fact, this is the logic many large mining companies have consistently adhered to.
Sell coins to make money in bull markets, accumulate coins to expand in bear markets.
When the market is sluggish, they focus more on how many BTC they own rather than whether quarterly profits look good.
Of course, this strategy is not suitable for all companies.
Continuous accumulation means bearing price volatility and requires sufficient cash flow support. Once the funding chain has issues, even the strongest conviction may be forced to sell coins.
Therefore, for mining companies, the real competition is not who earns fast but who can survive the entire cycle.
As for American Bitcoin’s choice to continue increasing holdings this time, whether it is preparing early for the next bull market or taking on greater risk still needs time to prove.
What do you think? Is continuously accumulating BTC during a bear market a long-term strategy or a high-risk gamble?
$BTC $WLFI
#BTC #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Unexpected Change in the AI Sector! DeepSeek Pauses Second-Round Financing, Tech Capital Sentiment Faces Disruption
📰 CBI Network cites Bloomberg
DeepSeek's second-round financing signing is temporarily suspended, triggered by founder Liang Wenfeng's dissatisfaction with the leak of internal content from the first-round investor meeting.
Insiders reveal the company has informed potential investors that the financing deal is not completely canceled and may be restarted in the future.
Financing timeline overview:
The first round of financing was just completed in June this year, raising about ¥50 billion; the second round originally planned to raise at least ¥10 billion, with a pre-investment valuation target not less than ¥480 billion. If both rounds are successfully completed, the total financing scale could approach the ¥100 billion level, marking a milestone financing in the domestic AI large model sector.
1. The essence of the event: Not a lack of money, but the founder's extreme emphasis on information control
Those familiar with DeepSeek's development know that Liang Wenfeng consistently places great importance on information confidentiality and corporate control.
The first-round financing rules were very special: a large amount of external funds needed to be held through entities managed by him, with long-term lock-up periods to firmly maintain control.
The widespread leak of internal investor meeting minutes broke the closed negotiation bottom line, directly triggering the financing pause.
⚠️ Important distinction: Suspension of signing ≠ financing failure, does not indicate deterioration of the company's fundamentals, but rather a strong governance-level statement.
However, the capital market will not only look at internal factors; the news will be reinterpreted by the market:
1. AI unicorn financing in the primary market encountering obstacles will transmit risk aversion in the primary market;
2. The market will begin to reassess the valuation bubble issue of high-valued domestic large models;
3. The entire AI sector's capital expectations loosen, with chain reactions spreading to the US AI stock sector and crypto AI narrative tokens.
2. Transmission logic to the crypto market
Crypto AI concept tokens such as TAO, RNDR, and $FET are highly correlated with the global AI industry sentiment.
Two potential market scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: Short-term emotional shock. The market amplifies negative interpretations, AI-themed tokens face pressure and pullback;
❌ Scenario 2: Subsequent financing restarts smoothly, negative impact quickly absorbed, market returns to original trend.
Greater insight: Global capital's tolerance for uncertainty is continuously declining.
Whether in primary market private financing or secondary market stocks and crypto assets, capital increasingly dislikes uncontrollable risks.
Coupled with the Fed's hawkish expectations heating up and multiple geopolitical disturbances, risk appetite is fragile, and such sudden tech sector news tends to amplify market volatility.
3. Pitfalls traders need to avoid
1. Do not be extremely bearish: a single event is insufficient to overturn the entire long-term AI sector narrative; financing suspension is a controllable event with restart potential;
2. Do not blindly ignore risks: once capital confidence loosens, high-valuation assets will face valuation compression;
3. Avoid heavy speculation on AI sector tokens based on a single piece of news.
4. Track two core observation signals
1. Whether DeepSeek announces the restart of financing negotiations in the coming weeks;
2. Whether the financing enthusiasm for AI projects in overseas and domestic primary markets continues to cool down.
Summary:
This financing pause, superficially caused by a leak-induced conflict, fundamentally tests the trust between primary market capital and the founder.
Short-term emotional disturbance, mid-to-long-term outcome depends on whether financing can get back on track.
Volatility of AI-themed tokens will amplify accordingly; maintain position restraint and wait for further news developments.
$BTC $TAO $RNDR
⚠️ Risk reminder: Content is only market information collation and inference, not investment advice.BTC, ETH, and SOL all saw slight recovery in the past 24 hours, with total market capitalization moderately rising. But this is more like a risk appetite correction than confirmation of a new trend. On August 4, net inflows into US spot BTC ETFs dropped to $41.2 million, a significant narrowing from the previous day; ETH ETFs turned into a net inflow of $10.6 million. Both sides are positive and worth watching, but the strength is not enough to indicate that funds have formed a continuous allocation. The most common mistake the market makes is directly translating "stop outflow" as "re-attacking." Right now, prices move first and funds wait and see; what truly matters is not a single candlestick line, but whether ETF flows can expand and continue across assets in the coming days. The X community discussion focused on "whether the rebound is valid," but the conclusion should still be left to subsequent funding and transaction verification. Key points: 1) BTC around $63,953, ETH around $1,861, SOL around $73.49, all snapshots of slight gains. 2) On August 4, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $41.2m, down from $170.1M on August 3. 3) ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $10.6m, an improvement from the previous day's slight net outflow. Risk warning: The above is for market observation only and does not constitute any investment advice; Crypto assets are highly volatile; please verify data yourself and control risks. #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期, and growth has already increasedConclusion first: This round of TRA is not just hype based on rumors; the club has already confirmed the start of transfer negotiations with Salah and announced the player's arrival arrangements. However, "starting talks" does not mean "already signed." The price clearly surged ahead before the official announcement, then retreated from the high after the news broke. I prefer to see this as a real event-driven anticipated transaction rather than fundamentals already realized. As of 09:00 on August 5 (Beijing time), OKX's TRA spot price rose from 0.2153 to 0.2492 in the past 12 hours, an increase of about 15.7%; the trading volume was approximately 164,000 USDT, 4.61 times the previous 12-hour volume of about 35,500 USDT. The highest price during this window reached 0.2734, closing about 8.9% below the peak. This detail is crucial: at 04:32 Beijing time, Turkey's public disclosure platform KAP confirmed that the club had started transfer negotiations with Mohamed Salah; about 20 minutes later, the club's official account announced the player's arrival in Istanbul that day and subsequent travel to Trabzon. By the time the announcement appeared, TRA had already risen about 22% from the window's starting point, and the peak coincided with the concentrated release of news. Capital bet first, official confirmation followed, then some took profits—the rhythm is much more complex than "price rises only after seeing the news." The hype is certainly real. The club's arrival announcement garnered millions of views within hours, and the football community quickly spread the news; for a fan token, the global star's attention directly amplifies search, discussion, and short-term trading demand “BTC $1 million” has once again appeared on the X discussion board, but what’s worth looking at is not the eye-catching number itself, but the formula behind it. CoinDesk today relayed the view of Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan; Bitwise’s March memo treats BTC as an emerging store-of-value asset, deriving an implied price using “store-of-value market size × BTC share ÷ 21 million supply cap.” The scenario assumes the store-of-value market continues to expand, and BTC’s share rises from about 4% to 17%, without necessarily having to replace gold.
The key—and also the boundary—of this model is that the World Gold Council breaks down gold stock into various uses such as jewelry, central bank reserves, bars and coins, and ETFs; “the gold market is large” does not mean every dollar can directly convert into BTC demand. The 21M cap only constrains supply; it does not automatically create buying pressure. Share, timing, volatility, regulation, and institutional entry remain unproven variables.
My judgment: this is a long-term valuation map used to deconstruct assumptions, not a short-term price signal. When seeing similar narratives, first separate three things: the market expansion that has already occurred, the share assumptions given by the model, and the timeline that has yet to be verified. #AMD earnings exceed expectations, is growth already priced in?
AMD Q2 earnings beat expectations: AI chip battle escalates, what does it mean for the crypto world?
AMD's latest quarterly earnings have become a market focus, with overall company performance surpassing market expectations, and the AI data center business being the biggest highlight. Data shows AMD's quarterly revenue reached about $11.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 50%, with data center business revenue growing significantly. Demand for AI chips is becoming the core driver of the company's growth.
Interestingly, after the positive earnings release, AMD's stock price fell, sparking market discussion:
Why does the stock price drop despite strong performance?
The reason is that the market is trading not just on "performance growth" but on "future expectations."
Over the past year, the AI concept has been continuously hot, with chip companies like NVIDIA and AMD seeing valuations rise steadily as investors have already bet in advance on rapid AI growth. Therefore, even if AMD's earnings are excellent, if future guidance does not meet the market's very high expectations, profit-taking may occur.
From an industry perspective, AMD's biggest change is:
It is no longer just a traditional CPU manufacturer but is challenging NVIDIA in the AI infrastructure field.
Currently, AI competition has entered the second phase:
Phase one:
Training large models, with the market relying on high-end GPUs.
Phase two:
AI application deployment, requiring massive inference computing power, servers, and data centers.
This presents an opportunity for AMD because in the future, enterprises will not only need to train AI but also run AI services long-term.
For the crypto world, the signals from AMD's earnings report are very important.
Logical chain:
AI chip demand growth
↓
Tech stock capital remains active
↓
Market risk appetite increases
↓
Capital seeks high-growth assets
↓
Risk assets like BTC, ETH benefit
Currently, BTC's correlation with Nasdaq is growing stronger, and the performance of U.S. tech stocks has become an important factor influencing crypto market sentiment.
If AMD, NVIDIA, Micron, and other AI industry chain companies continue to stay strong, it indicates market capital is still willing to bet on tech growth, which usually helps restore crypto market sentiment.
But traders also need to note:
The AI market has now entered the "performance verification phase."
In the past, the market traded stories; now it looks at:
Whether AI revenue is realized;
Whether corporate capital expenditure continues;
Whether profit growth matches valuation.
If future AI investment returns fall short of expectations, U.S. tech stocks may adjust and impact BTC through reduced risk appetite.
In summary:
The biggest significance of AMD's earnings is not a stock price fluctuation but that AI infrastructure competition is accelerating.
For the crypto world, the AI sector remains an important indicator to observe capital sentiment.
In one sentence:
AMD proves AI demand is still growing, but the market has entered a selective phase. The future driver of BTC's rise is not just stories but the global capital's sustained confidence in technological innovation and risk assets. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
SpaceX Q1 Earnings Analysis: New Narratives in Space Economy, AI, and Capital Markets
SpaceX's latest earnings report has attracted market attention, with the core message being: the company is transforming from a traditional aerospace enterprise into a “satellite internet + AI infrastructure + space economy platform.” The report shows that SpaceX's revenue continues to grow, with Starlink satellite internet becoming the main growth engine, while investments in AI-related businesses have significantly increased.
From a business structure perspective, Starlink has become the most commercially successful part of SpaceX. As the user base expands, satellite internet is moving from concept to real commercial revenue. Currently, Starlink covers a large number of regions, with a continuously growing user base, and increasing demand from enterprise and government clients.
However, the market's focus is not only on revenue growth but also on SpaceX's future direction.
First, AI + space is becoming a new growth point.
Elon Musk is pushing the integration of AI infrastructure with satellite networks, potentially providing communication, data processing, and even space computing power services via satellites in the future. This means competition has upgraded from "rocket launches" to "future infrastructure competition."
Second, Starlink could become a new global communication gateway.
Traditional communication relies on ground stations, while satellite internet can cover remote areas, oceans, and special environments. If Starlink continues to scale, it could change the global communication landscape.
Third, capital markets are beginning to redefine the space economy.
In the past, aerospace was mostly seen as a government project, but SpaceX has proven that commercial aerospace can also generate huge cash flow. Future investment logic might be similar to the AI industry chain:
NVIDIA provides computing power;
Data centers provide infrastructure;
SpaceX provides global connectivity.
However, risks also exist. Currently, SpaceX is still in a high-investment phase, with AI infrastructure, satellite deployment, and Starship development all requiring substantial capital expenditure, and short-term profitability pressure cannot be ignored.
For the crypto community, the biggest signal from SpaceX's earnings report is:
The market is searching for the next generation of technology narratives.
In the past, funds rotated around AI, RWA, and DePIN, while the future "AI + satellite network + decentralized infrastructure" may become the new focus. Especially in the DePIN track, which essentially uses blockchain to connect real-world infrastructure, satellite communication and distributed computing have potential integration space.
In summary:
SpaceX's earnings report is not just a corporate report card but also represents the capital market's revaluation of future industry directions. In the short term, the market focuses on profitability and investment pressure; in the long term, the space economy may become an important technology investment theme following AI.
For traders, the key is not to chase the SpaceX concept but to observe whether funds are spreading from traditional tech stocks to new infrastructure narratives. I keep coming back to the macro picture because it often tells a bigger story than short-term price action.
The latest U.S. ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside, reinforcing that the economy remains more resilient than many expected. What stood out even more was that Treasury yields declined despite the stronger data—a signal that markets are growing more confident inflation is cooling and that the Federal Reserve could still have room to ease policy later this year.
For crypto, that's a constructive backdrop.
📉 Lower Treasury yields improve liquidity and reduce the opportunity cost of holding risk assets.
📈 A resilient economy helps ease recession concerns and supports investor confidence.
If this trend continues:
🟠 $BTC could attract stronger institutional inflows as investors seek exposure to digital assets in a more favorable liquidity environment.
🔵 $ETH may benefit from renewed interest in DeFi, tokenization, and on-chain infrastructure as risk appetite strengthens.
For investors everywhere—not just in the U.S.—global macro matters. Liquidity doesn't respect borders. When financial conditions improve in the world's largest economy, the effects often ripple across global markets, including digital assets.
I'm continuing to watch inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury yields closely. For now, though, the macro backdrop appears significantly more supportive for crypto than it did just a few months ago.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Macro #DailyOrbit #USWeighsIranStrike #AMDQ2BeatDebate From rate cuts to rate hikes, don't rush to bottom-fish ETH this time
ETH is currently around 1873. Last night it pulled from about 1853 up to 1881, then surged and pulled back. Selling pressure near 1880 is still obvious; to continue upward, it needs to hold this level first.
This pullback isn't just a technical issue. At the last Fed meeting, the vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with three officials directly supporting a hike; Warsh recently reduced forward guidance, so the market shifted from "waiting for rate cuts" back to "re-pricing rate hike risks," amplifying volatility.
The funding side is also mediocre. ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $11.9 million on August 3 and a return inflow of $10.6 million on August 4, indicating funds haven't fully withdrawn but aren't aggressively accumulating yet.
Short-term view:
1880–1882: first resistance
Break and hold above: target 1890, even 1900
1862–1865: first support
If broken: look back to 1853–1858
I'm not chasing gains or rushing to bottom-fish here; I'll wait for confirmation at key levels before acting. What worries me most now isn't a drop, but the Fed saying something that sweeps both bulls and bears back and forth.
Do you think ETH can break through 1880 this time, or will it retest once more? $ETH #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 SpaceX Q2 Earnings Report Analysis｜XSPCX Personal Trading Strategy
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
SpaceX released its first Q2 earnings report since going public, with revenue of $7.814 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; losses also narrowed noticeably. The Starlink business has become the core driver of revenue growth, and the overall performance data is very impressive. However, it should be noted that the company continues to invest heavily in its space and AI sectors and has not yet achieved stable profitability.
For $SPCX, the positive news has already been priced in. The biggest risk ahead is not the earnings report but the lock-up expiration window on August 6. Eligible shareholders can sell up to 20% of their restricted shares, and the potential selling pressure could even exceed the current public float. The market focus will shift from "earnings beating expectations" to how the selling pressure is absorbed and whether profitability can be sustained, which will directly determine the subsequent price trend.
Based on this fundamental information, my personal trading approach is:
1. Strictly reduce position size
Even if the earnings data looks good, do not increase positions chasing the rally. Allocate no more than 5% of total account funds to this, and never heavily bet on earnings-driven moves. Positive news often leads to funds using the news as an excuse to sell.
2. Focus on lock-up selling pressure, avoid blind bullishness
Earnings reflect past results; lock-up expiration is the imminent real selling pressure. Pay close attention to trading volume before and after the lock-up:
- If volume spikes with price drops and weak absorption, do not rush to bottom-fish; this indicates selling pressure is being released, so avoid first;
- Only consider small positions if the price withstands selling pressure and large funds continue to absorb.
3. Entry conditions
Do not enter at the peak of earnings hype. Wait for the market to fully digest the earnings and price in the lock-up downside, then observe market behavior.
Firmly avoid "rushing in just because the earnings look good."
4. Profit-taking and stop-loss standards
For short-term participation, set clear risk limits. If selling pressure from lock-up intensifies and losses reach your tolerance, exit immediately—do not hold hoping for a rebound; if there is a short-term rise, take profits in batches rather than holding for the entire move.
5. Objective view of fundamentals
Starlink growth is strong, but the company is still in a phase of heavy capital investment and has not yet achieved overall stable profitability. No matter how good the narrative is, respect the market selling pressure and do not hold long-term solely based on earnings data.
Summary: The Q2 earnings report indeed delivered an above-expectation result, but the lock-up expiration remains the biggest looming variable. Positive news does not guarantee continued price increases; the key focus now is on the market's ability to absorb large selling pressure. This phase calls for cautious observation, small position trial and error, and prioritizing risk control. This is my personal review for community sharing only.Federal Reserve regional presidents collectively turn hawkish! Rate cut fantasies take another heavy blow, macro logic completely rewritten
📰 🪝Breaking News (August 5)
Since the July FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish camp has continued to expand! Among the 12 regional Fed presidents, 5 have publicly expressed a preference for rate hikes.
The presidents of the Cleveland, Dallas, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and St. Louis Fed have consecutively spoken out, unanimously warning that inflation risks remain stubborn, current monetary policy is not restrictive enough, and further tightening is needed.
Harmak bluntly stated that policy strength is insufficient; Logan pointed out that core inflation remains persistently high; Kashkari advocates for small, consecutive rate hikes to avoid forced aggressive tightening later; Schmidt and Musalem also call for tightening, even warning that U.S. Treasury sell-offs are shaking the Fed's credibility.
The opposing camp is equally clear: 7 permanent board members plus the New York and Philadelphia Fed presidents lean toward keeping rates unchanged.
The two factions openly confront each other, exposing deep divisions within the Fed.
1. Key truths traders must understand (pitfall avoidance focus)
Many fall into the first misconception: Regional Fed presidents ≠ all have voting rights this year!
FOMC voting seats rotate; regional presidents' influence is not equal to that of board members.
⚠️Key conclusion: Frequent hawkish speeches are an important risk signal, but repeated statements do not guarantee a September rate hike.
Officials aim to preemptively warn the market to prevent a severe sell-off if inflation rebounds.
But the trend change cannot be ignored:
In the first half of the year, the entire market uniformly traded on "rate cut expectations," everyone betting on the start of an easing cycle;
In just over a month, the narrative reversed dramatically, and the market began to price in the possibility of rate hikes restarting.
The persistent failure of inflation to fall back to the 2% target is the underlying logic uniting all hawkish officials.
2. Transmission chain to the crypto market
Crypto assets are high-beta risk assets naturally pressured in a high interest rate environment:
1. Persistent tightening expectations → increased dollar attractiveness, capital avoids high-volatility assets;
2. Opportunity cost of holding non-yielding crypto rises, capital flows preferentially to U.S. Treasury and cash management products;
3. Market divergence intensifies: mainstream $BTC shows stronger resilience, small coins and altcoins lack incremental capital, reducing rebound sustainability.
Two scenario simulations:
✅Scenario 1: Subsequent CPI and PCE inflation marginally decline → hawkish voices gradually converge, rates remain steady, market returns to original range-bound oscillation;
❌Scenario 2: Inflation rebounds again, hawks gain more board support, September rate hike expectations heat up → risk assets face a round of valuation corrections.
3. The biggest current market risk
Policy expectations swinging back and forth create a hotbed for volatile shakeouts.
The biggest trap now: one-sided bets on rate hikes or on rates holding steady.
News flips between bullish and bearish, making chasing news costly.
Combined with multiple geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, plus dense U.S. earnings reports, multiple variables resonate, pushing market uncertainty to a high level.
4. Practical trading ideas
1. Abandon the old mindset of "waiting for a rate cut bull market" from the first half; the macro mainline has shifted;
2. Reduce leverage and shrink positions; avoid relying on officials' speeches to preemptively bet one-sidedly;
3. Closely monitor two key indicators going forward: U.S. core inflation data and collective Fed board speeches;
4. Wait for the market to show a volume breakout or effective breakdown before following the trend to position; reduce frequent entries in a choppy market.
Summary:
The collective hawkish signals from 5 regional Fed presidents are a clear warning.
Risks can be cautioned against but no need to panic immediately.
The market ultimately pays for real data, not officials' verbal statements.
The tide has turned, old expectations are failing, and trading strategies must evolve accordingly.
$BTC $ETH #MacroNews #FederalReserve
📌 Liquidity watchlist
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $SPCX · $SNDK
⚠️This is market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please strictly control position sizes.8.5 Financial Market Morning Brief #SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, unlocking remains a key variable
The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, war premium drained in one go
· Bassent: Agreement with Iran may be reached as soon as tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz
· Rubio: Negotiations have made progress; Iran's stance softens, considering allowing Europe to clear mines in the strait
· WTI down 5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 hit a new high for July
When oil crashes, the "war = inflation = rate hikes" logic loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared oil prices pushing inflation higher, forcing the Fed not to cut rates; now this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets collectively breathe a sigh of relief—Fidelity Semiconductor +6%, Intel +10%.
The only one still pretending to sleep is crypto. $BTC stubbornly clings to 64K, not following risk assets when they rise, but falling when they fall. This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence is the signal to watch now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price hasn't caught on.
Don't rush to translate macro positives into buying reasons. Wait for BTC to find its own direction,Brothers, the most profitable people during sideways markets are not those who guess the right direction, but those who do nothing yet get paid daily — positive funding rate +0.0032% stuck at BTC 62,528, longs pay "rent" every 8 hours, shorts collect it lying down.
The data shows: BTC down -0.93% in 24h, volume cut by 31.3%, OI frozen at 111,400 BTC. Such a large group of leveraged longs, price stagnant, yet they keep burning funding fees — this is what "holding a position is paying tax" means.
I am a negative example myself. My ADA long entry at 0.1894 now 0.1868, unrealized loss 1.37%; KAITO short entry 1.0033 now 1.0114, unrealized loss 0.81%. Both positions underwater, betting on direction during sideways is slow suicide.
Here’s something you can take away: Three judgments for sideways markets. ① Positive funding + sideways = short to collect rent / spot arbitrage window, don’t bet on direction; ② Real bottom shows funding turning deeply negative + OI collapse, not there yet; ③ Unrealized losses on stagnant positions are "time tax," not real losses, don’t itch to cut losses and chase highs.
Simply put, winners in sideways markets sell volatility to collect rent, losers stubbornly hold direction bets. My two positions are living examples — if I’m wrong, take me as a contrarian indicator.
The only one still green is GRVT +14.55%, but that’s the lone survivor during liquidity drought, don’t chase it as a main play, chasing means becoming a bag holder.
Friends, during sideways markets, are you "lying flat collecting rent" or "itchy hands betting on direction"? Comment below, let’s see who lasts longer.
Tomorrow, watch if funding turns negative; if it does, then talk bottom, if not, keep ignoring push notifications and lie flat.
Crypto assets are high risk, this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion.
$BTC $KAITO $GRVT #fundingratearbitrage #sideways #fundingrate #tradingsystem #riskmanagement #marketanalysis #OKXPlanetI keep coming back to the macro picture because it often tells a bigger story than short-term price action.
The latest U.S. ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside, showing the economy remains more resilient than many expected. What really caught my attention, though, was that Treasury yields still moved lower after the data. That combination suggests markets are becoming more confident that inflation is easing and that the Fed may still have room to cut rates later this year.
For crypto, that's an interesting setup. Lower yields tend to improve liquidity and make risk assets more attractive, while a healthy economy reduces fears of a sharp slowdown. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could benefit from stronger institutional demand, and Ethereum may see renewed interest as activity across DeFi, tokenization, and on-chain infrastructure grows.
From a Brazilian investor's perspective, global macro trends like these matter just as much as local markets. Liquidity doesn't respect borders, and when financial conditions improve in the U.S., the effects are often felt across digital asset markets worldwide.
I'm still watching inflation data, Fed comments, and Treasury yields closely, but right now the broader macro backdrop looks more supportive for crypto than it did a few months ago.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Macro #Fed #USWeighsIranStrike #DailyOrbit #AMDQ2BeatDebate #InvestinETH rose nearly 20% in July, while BTC increased about 7%, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio to 0.030, the highest reading since April.
This outperformance is larger than many expected and has structural reasons behind it, not just short-term sentiment-driven.
The Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to land at the end of August, marking the most significant protocol change for Ethereum since The Merge. This timing is related to the July outperformance—the market started pricing in the upgrade ahead of time, which is a classic technical catalyst pricing pattern in crypto, nothing new. ETH outperformed BTC in the months before The Merge, and a similar pattern appeared before the EIP-4844 rollout.
But this time, Glamsterdam is more significant than previous upgrades—it introduces ePBS and parallel transaction processing, truly increasing the base layer throughput of the mainnet for the first time. It’s not pushing activity to Layer 2; the mainnet itself is starting to enhance capacity. With increased mainnet throughput, gas consumption rises, leading to higher burn rates, and deflationary pressure truly returns.
Meanwhile, BlackRock IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of $111.4 million, and the overall spot BTC ETF had a net inflow exceeding $170 million in one day—this happened amid the Coldcard hack incident and extreme market panic. Institutions were not driven away by the bad news; instead, they increased their positions. This behavior itself indicates that institutions have their own judgment about this price range and do not follow retail sentiment.
These two events combined—ETH upgrade window approaching and institutions continuously buying amid extreme panic—form what I currently consider the two most important signals to track in August.
ETH is currently around $1865 to $1875, technically the strongest among the three, holding key support with resistance above at $2050. If $1850 holds, the relatively strong logic before Glamsterdam’s landing remains intact.
Have you adjusted your ETH positions because the Glamsterdam upgrade window is approaching? Share your judgment.
$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#ETH[Abstract] Explaining the differences between buying a home, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 from three levels: historical prices, cash flow calculations, and full housing costs. [Main Text] If you invest a mortgage cash flow in the US stock index for 30 consecutive years, what will happen in the end? This question easily becomes the headline "Houses Are Crushed by Stocks," but the real value lies not in creating wins or losses, but in clearly seeing the compound interest, leverage, residential value, and risks behind these three assets. 1. Standardize the comparison criteria first. This article selects the period from December 1995 to December 2025, a period of 30 years. Housing prices are based on the FHFA U.S. National Monthly Purchase Home Price Index; The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 use a price index basis, looking only at index level changes without factoring in dividend reinvestments. The advantage of this approach is that all three first compare the "asset price," but the downside is that it underestimates the total possible return for stock investors. 2. How much have the three asset classes appreciated over the past 30 years? The FHFA National Purchase Price Index rose from 113.64 to 437.73, about 3.85 times, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4.60%. The S&P 500 rose from 615.93 to 6,845.50, about 11.11 times, with a compound annual growth rate of about 8.36%. The Nasdaq 100's price returns from 1996 to 2025 compound year-on-year, about 43.83 times, with a compound annual return of about 13.43%. The gap among these three stems from the long-term overlap of corporate earnings, valuation expansion, growth in the tech industry, real estate supply and demand, and the rate of compounding. 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, short-term longs were crushed mercilessly, but long-term shorts suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $13,900
Long liquidations about $13,300
Short liquidations about $615.90
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $158,400
Long liquidations about $157,500
Short liquidations about $824.88
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $337,200
Long liquidations about $214,700
Short liquidations about $122,400
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $1,011,900
Long liquidations about $223,600
Short liquidations about $788,300
From the $HYPE liquidation data, long liquidations in 1-hour and 4-hour periods crushed shorts, with long liquidations 21 times and 191 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a nuclear-level intensity in the long liquidation start; the 12-hour long advantage sharply narrowed, with the ratio dropping to 1.75 times, showing a significant short squeeze force; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts being 3.5 times longs. The market makers on HYPE completed a fierce turnaround from long liquidation to short squeeze — short-term longs were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.01 million. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 5
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is brutally repricing — "exceeding expectations" has become the baseline, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, Fed Divisions Fully Exposed
The July Fed meeting minutes revealed a rare internal split among decision-makers. Of 19 officials, 9 believe at least one rate hike is needed this year (6 of whom expect two hikes), while another 9 expect rates to remain unchanged or be cut. New Chair Wash refused to submit his own forecast, completely abandoning "forward guidance."
By the July 29 meeting, the split moved from paper to ballot box — 9 votes in favor, 3 against maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Three regional Fed presidents voted against, advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike. This was the first time since 2016 that three consistent dissenting votes appeared.
The core of the division is inflation. Some officials believe AI demand, energy shocks, and tariffs are pushing inflation stickiness; others think the economy is showing weakness. After the minutes release, federal funds futures implied about a 60% chance of a September hike.
📊 AMD and SpaceX: Beat Expectations, Then Plunge
AMD delivered a "high score," yet fell over 9% after hours. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of revenue. The problem was "not perfect enough" — Q3 guidance was above analyst expectations but failed to satisfy some aggressive investors.
SpaceX's first earnings report also beat expectations but plunged 7% after hours. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year; net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $541 million. The plunge culprit was capital expenditure — AI-related spending surged to $18.4 billion. The market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash.
🚀 Palantir Revenue Up 93%, Up 13% After Hours
Amid the same earnings storm, Palantir was one of the few winners. Q2 revenue was $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year; net profit was $1.06 billion, EPS $0.41, far exceeding the expected $0.35. U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year to $764 million. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to about $8.15 billion. Shares jumped 13%-15% after hours.
CEO Karp said bluntly: "Strong growth can continue for 18 more months."
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the Fed's internal split from "rate cuts or hikes" moved to an open break in the ballot box; AMD and SpaceX proved AI demand is real with record revenues but were punished by the market for "not being perfect enough"; only Palantir — with 93% growth and 149% U.S. commercial growth — tells the market that the true winners of the AI narrative are those who can convert technology into real commercial revenue. When "exceeding expectations" has become the minimum requirement, the AI track is moving from "storytelling" to "delivering results." #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Guys, PUMP rose 6.76% today, currently at $0.002414, up 110% from 0.00115. The protocol generates $28.4 million in monthly revenue, with cumulative buybacks and burns nearly 15% of the total supply. On July 8, 2.5 billion tokens were unlocked (valued at about $125 million at unlock), followed by multi-year monthly linear release, with ongoing potential selling pressure; The buyback scale shrank from 217 million yuan in the second half of 2025 to 72.2 million yuan (-67%) in the first half of 2026, with only 9.2 million yuan remaining in June alone. Although the platform is profitable, it has no dividend mechanism; holders can only benefit indirectly through buyback and burning, not direct profit sharing. Key price levels: Resistance $0.0024-$0.0025 (break out at $0.0029-$0.0030), support at $0.0020-$0.0021 (break below $0.0017). 0.0024-0.0025 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. The protocol is indeed profitable, and the medium- to long-term unlocking of selling pressure is real, while platforms also face the uncertainty of class action lawsuits. Monitoring daily protocol income and buyback data is more effective than simply looking at candlesticks. Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $PUMP #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 growth has been overdrawn? #从降息到加息, the Fed is fully dividedBICO (Biconomy) Comprehensive Analysis + Investment Risk Warning
1. Basic Project Introduction
1. Project Positioning
BICO is the native token of the Biconomy protocol, operating in the account abstraction (AA) + Web3 transaction infrastructure sector, addressing two major pain points for blockchain users:
1. Gas-free transactions: Users do not need to hold on-chain native tokens (ETH/MATIC, etc.) and can pay fees directly with fiat currency or stablecoins;
2. Smart multi-chain accounts: Simplifies wallet signatures and cross-chain operations, lowering the entry barrier for Web3 beginners. The product provides API services for DeFi, blockchain games, and NFT project teams.
Developed based on Ethereum's ERC-4337 account abstraction standard, it is one of the early leading projects in the AA sector, with solid institutional funding background, launched on mainstream public chains, and has processed over 70 million on-chain transactions.
2. Core Token Parameters
- Total supply: Fixed at 1 billion tokens, no additional inflation;
- Circulation: Unlock rate close to 100%, no large subsequent unlock pressure;
- Distribution structure: Community 37.92%, team + early investors total 46% (tokens fully unlocked and can be sold anytime on exchanges);
- Token utility: Network node staking, protocol governance voting, fee consumption, ecosystem incentives; no buyback and burn or fee dividend value capture mechanisms.
3. Latest Market Data (2026.08.05)
- Current price: approximately $0.017 (≈0.14 CNY);
- All-time high: $21.45 during the 2021 bull market, a decline of over 99.9% in four years;
- Market cap: only tens of millions of dollars, ranked beyond 900th, considered a micro altcoin (low-value small-cap coin);
- Market characteristics: Long-term downtrend channel, with occasional short-term pump spikes driven by temporary funds, followed by rapid declines, very high turnover rate, mostly large holders selling off. 📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, the shorts have been mercilessly crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $24,800
Long position liquidations about $0
Short position liquidations about $24,800
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $132,600
Long position liquidations about $63,200
Short position liquidations about $69,400
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $1,071,200
Long position liquidations about $103,000
Short position liquidations about $968,200
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $1,259,200
Long position liquidations about $186,300
Short position liquidations about $1,072,800
From the $ZEC liquidation data, short liquidations monopolize the entire 1-hour period with longs at zero, indicating a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; in 4 hours, short liquidations slightly dominate with the gap narrowing, showing marginal weakening of short squeeze momentum; in 12 hours, short liquidations surged to $968,200, 9.4 times that of longs, indicating a full short squeeze outbreak; in 24 hours, short liquidations still lead by a wide margin, 5.76 times that of longs. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on ZEC—shorts across short, medium, and long cycles have been comprehensively targeted and liquidated, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.25 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze market is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 5
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is brutally repricing—"exceeding expectations" has become the baseline, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, Fed Divisions Fully Exposed
The July Fed meeting minutes revealed rare internal splits among decision-makers. Of 19 officials, 9 believe at least one rate hike is needed this year (6 of whom expect two hikes), while another 9 expect rates to remain unchanged or be cut. New Chair Wash declined to provide his own forecast, completely abandoning "forward guidance."
By the July 29 meeting, the split moved from paper to ballot box—9 votes in favor, 3 against maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Three regional Fed presidents voted against, advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike. This was the first time since 2016 that three consistent dissenting votes appeared.
The core disagreement centers on inflation. Some officials believe AI demand, energy shocks, and tariffs are driving inflation stickiness; others see signs of economic weakness. After the minutes release, federal funds futures implied about a 60% chance of a September hike.
📊 AMD and SpaceX: Beat Expectations, Then Plunge
AMD delivered a "high score" but still fell over 9% in after-hours trading. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107%, accounting for 58% of revenue. The issue was "not perfect enough"—Q3 guidance was above analyst expectations but failed to satisfy some aggressive investors.
SpaceX's first earnings report also beat expectations but plunged 7% after hours. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92%; net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $541 million. The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure—AI-related spending surged to $18.4 billion. The market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash.
🚀 Palantir Revenue Up 93%, After-Hours Up 13%
Amid the earnings storm, Palantir was one of the few winners. Q2 revenue was $1.94 billion, up 93%; net profit was $1.06 billion, EPS $0.41, far exceeding the expected $0.35. U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year to $764 million. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to about $8.15 billion. After-hours shares surged 13%-15%.
CEO Karp stated bluntly: "Strong growth can continue for 18 more months."
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: the Fed's internal split from "rate cuts or hikes" has moved to an open break in the ballot box; AMD and SpaceX proved AI demand is real with record revenues but were punished by the market for "not being perfect enough"; only Palantir—with 93% growth and 149% U.S. commercial growth—tells the market that the true winners of the AI narrative are those who can convert technology into real commercial revenue. When "exceeding expectations" has become the minimum requirement, the AI track is moving from "storytelling" to "delivering results." #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $CELO has made some progress in "bringing crypto to ordinary people," but it has done a terrible job at "helping token holders make money."
Celo has real users and practical use cases, but $CELO itself is a typical **"token that doesn’t make money when used"** — the network runs, stablecoins circulate, yet token holders hardly get any benefits, and the price has been halved repeatedly from its peak.
Celo focuses on mobile payments and emerging markets, with a certain amount of real transaction volume and users (MiniPay and others bring considerable activity). The problem is: most activity happens on stablecoins, and fees and network revenue barely flow back to $CELO holders. Holding $CELO is more a bet on "future tokenomics changes" than enjoying current network growth.
The current price is about $0.06, with a market cap around $36 million, down nearly 99% from the all-time high (about $9.8). The decline within one year is also close to 80%. Even though the network is migrating to Ethereum L2 and user data looks decent, the market remains unconvinced. This shows "having users ≠ having token price."
With a total supply of 1 billion, there are still large unlocks and ecosystem incentives. The community repeatedly discusses reforms like fee burns and buybacks, but progress is slow and implementation insufficient. Large ecosystem grants (including significant CELO allocations to partners) often raise dilution concerns. For token holders, growth dividends are continuously diluted.
After migrating from an independent L1 to an OP Stack L2, differentiation has further diminished. High performance and low fees are now standard for L2s, and the mobile payment narrative is not prominent amid fierce L2 competition. DeFi TVL is also low, and ecosystem depth is limited.
The Security Council holds strong upgrade authority, voting power is relatively concentrated, and there have been past controversies over community fund transparency. There is a gap between the decentralization narrative and actual control, increasing long-term uncertainty.
$ETH Regarding SpaceX's earnings report, I believe the real point of interest is not the "beat expectations," but why the funds did not flee after the beat.
Many people’s first reaction last night upon seeing the earnings was: revenue of $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, far exceeding market expectations, and a significantly narrowed loss per share. This report is indeed impressive.
But those who actually trade know that the market never focuses solely on whether the earnings are good; it looks at whether, after the positive news is realized, there is still capital continuing to buy.
From the news perspective, there are three main highlights in this earnings report.
First, Starlink has already begun to become SpaceX’s most stable source of cash flow. While revenue is growing rapidly, losses have shrunk from nearly $1 billion in the same period last year to $143 million, indicating that the company’s business model is entering a realization phase rather than just telling a story.
Second, although AI and aerospace businesses are still in a high-investment phase, the capital market values future growth potential the most. With the global demand for AI computing power continuously increasing, satellite internet, data transmission, and the future Starlink ecosystem are expected to continue benefiting, which is an important reason why funds are willing to assign a high valuation.
Third, and also the market’s biggest concern, is the upcoming unlocking of the first batch of restricted shares on August 6.
Many panic at the word "unlocking," but experienced traders know that what truly determines the trend is not the unlocking itself, but the ability to absorb shares after unlocking.
If institutions believe the company’s future value is far higher than the current price, even if some profit-taking occurs, new funds will step in to accumulate shares. Historically, many growth stocks have completed a shakeout after unlocking and then started a second major rally.
Looking at the technical side.
After SPCX adjusted down from a high level earlier, it has released a lot of profit-taking chips. Currently, trading volume is starting to shrink, indicating that panic selling pressure is weakening. If volume expands after the earnings are realized, it means funds have not retreated due to the positive news but are instead repricing the company’s future value.
Short-term focus should be on several levels.
Around $100 is the first important support and also a market sentiment watershed. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the bullish structure remains intact.
The first resistance above is at $112; breaking through this could further challenge the $120 round number.
If volume expands and the price holds above $120, it means the market has fully digested the unlocking expectations, and the previous high near $135 will become the next important target.
For aggressive traders, the $100–$104 range can be observed as a low-buy zone; more conservative traders can wait for a volume breakout above $112 before following the trend. The real stop-loss situation is if the price falls below $98 on high volume with continuously increasing volume, indicating insufficient absorption funds and a need to temporarily avoid risk.
My view has not changed.
Beating earnings expectations is only the first step; what truly drives the stock price up is the market beginning to believe that profitability can continue to improve. Currently, Starlink has proven its commercial value, AI and aerospace businesses provide future growth imagination, and unlocking may instead become an opportunity for chip reshuffling.
Therefore, I tend to believe that in the short term, the market may fluctuate around the unlocking news, but as long as the $100 support holds, the overall trend remains bullish. After the unlocking sentiment is fully released and chips have been exchanged, SPCX still has the chance to start a new round of upward movement. $120 is not the end; if subsequent funds continue to flow in, a renewed challenge to the $135 high is not impossible. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Samsung is going to embed native stablecoin functionality into 800 million Galaxy phones.
This is not a small-scale pilot but a system-level wallet integration based on the existing Samsung Wallet infrastructure, directly incorporating fiat-linked savings and payment accounts. The related capabilities may cover stablecoins like USDC. With nearly 19 million Wallet users in South Korea as the base, there are plans to integrate payments, rewards, and digital assets into the same ecosystem across 61 countries.
The key point here is not "another phone manufacturer entering crypto," but the entry-level distribution: if stablecoins grow inside the phone's native wallet, usage scenarios will shift from exchange accounts to everyday payments. Coupled with Samsung holding about $408 million equity in Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, and South Korea advancing the "Digital Asset Basic Act," this looks more like a consumer electronics giant seizing the payment gateway during a compliance window.
The short-term direct impact on the market is limited, but the mid-term is positive for stablecoin circulation and crypto payment narratives. On the major market front, BTC is currently priced at 64143.1 (+0.76%), standing above PP 63959.53, with resistance at R1 64628.87 and support at S1 63406.17; ETH is at 1868.46 (+0.571%), with PP 1866.04, R1 1884.58, and S1 1850.36. First, watch if BTC can hold above PP and challenge R1.
Pivot points BTC R1/S1/PP: 64628.87 / 63406.17 / 63959.53 | ETH: 1884.58 / 1850.36 / 1866.04
$BTC #BTC $ETH #ETHAMD's earnings grow on both fronts but stock price "plunges"—is it unable to rise further or just taking a breather?
Release Date: August 5, 2026
1. Earnings Review: A "textbook" financial report, so why is the market not buying it?
AMD's recently released Q2 earnings showed strong dominance, yet the stock price dropped sharply about 8.9% in after-hours trading. This divergence of "earnings beat causing a surge, earnings beat causing a drop" reveals current market anxiety:
* Data Center Doubles: Data center revenue reached $6.72 billion, doubling year-over-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue. The capacity ramp-up of the MI400 series accelerators is the core driver.
* Q3 Guidance Raised: Provided next quarter revenue guidance of $13 billion, above the market expectation of $12.5 billion.
* Dragging Segment: Gaming revenue was only $779 million, down 31% year-over-year, showing cyclical weakness in the traditional hardware market.
2. Core Controversy: Has growth been "overdrawn"?
Investors' biggest concern is not fundamentals but valuation premium versus expectation gap.
* Valuation "Fear of Heights": AMD's current forward P/E remains around 60-70x. In contrast, Nvidia's valuation logic offers better cost performance, and the market is starting to question whether AMD can sustain such a steep growth curve.
* "Good news fully priced in": Before the earnings release, the stock had already gained over 120% year-to-date. The $1.66 EPS, although beating the expected $1.62, is insufficient to support a second breakout in an atmosphere where "expectations have already priced in your expectations."
3. Macro and Crypto Linkage Effects
As the "second navigator" of AI computing power, AMD's moves directly impact the AI track in the crypto market:
* AI Tokens Pullback: Influenced by AMD's stock volatility, $TAO dropped to $196.10 today, showing slight profit-taking; $FET and other computing power-related tokens also entered high-level consolidation.
* Infrastructure Logic: AMD's earnings mentioned the Helios architecture and its optimization of inference costs, benefiting decentralized computing power networks. If computing hardware costs decline, DePIN track profit margins are expected to improve.
4. Investor Strategy Suggestions: Stay Cool
* Short-term Logic: Avoid the spotlight. AMD's current trend is a typical "bull stampede," with short-term risk of further testing the $450 support level.
* Mid-term Logic: Buy the dip. Lisa Su emphasized the vision of doubling data center capacity by 2027 during the call. As long as the AI computing power gap exists, pullbacks are opportunities for long-term allocation.
* Crypto Layout: Focus on $TAO and $RNDR, which usually lead sentiment in the computing power sector.
Summary: AMD's growth is not overdrawn; what is overdrawn is investors' patience and greed. The $11.54 billion revenue base is very healthy. This pullback is "profit-taking" under high valuation, not a logic reversal. Recommendation: Enter in batches at emotional lows; do not chase highs when the market is overheated.
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $AMD $BTC $ETH $XRP$TAO$HOME$SOL "Is the '311 billion USD on-chain' claim true? Understanding the three boundaries of BlackRock's tokenized fund"
On August 4, multiple industry media outlets reported that BlackRock launched on-chain shares for the European Institutional Cash Series (ICS) money market fund, with JPMorgan's Kinexys connecting the traditional fund registration system to Ethereum. The approximately 311 billion USD mentioned refers to the traditional asset size of the ICS fund as of June 30, not that 311 billion USD, ETH, or tokens have entered the chain all at once.
First boundary: The tokens represent regulated fund shares, not newly issued cryptocurrencies. The underlying assets remain primarily cash, short-term government bonds, and other money market instruments. The returns and risks come from these assets and fund management, not from ETH price. What changes on-chain is the registration, transfer, and visibility of shares; it does not automatically convert underlying securities into native on-chain assets.
Second boundary: A public chain does not mean everyone can buy. The related shares are available only to approved professional or institutional investors, and wallets require whitelisting and identity verification. Kinexys official information states that its system acts as a "translation layer" between traditional transfer agents and public Ethereum, supporting 24/7 transfers and position information; this remains a permissioned financial product, not permissionless DeFi.
Third boundary: The impact on ETH is more about infrastructure demand rather than immediate equivalent buy pressure. If more funds use Ethereum for registration, settlement, or collateral, it may increase institutional demand for wallets, custody, oracles, and compliance interfaces; however, transaction fees, ETH consumption, and value capture depend on actual on-chain activity and cannot be directly inferred from total fund size.
Risks should not be overlooked. An April study by the European Central Bank pointed out that tokenized money market funds can improve settlement efficiency and asset programmability but may also introduce liquidity mismatches, smart contract, operational disruption, and legacy system integration risks. Public information is insufficient to confirm the real-time on-chain balance and trading volume of all shares, so the claim that "311 billion USD is fully on-chain" should be viewed cautiously.
What truly matters may not be an exaggerated number but that traditional asset management is beginning to treat blockchain as backend financial infrastructure. Do you think ETH's most sustainable value source will be mass DeFi or institutional asset registration and settlement?
Data verification: BlackRock ICS fund documents, JPMorgan Kinexys official product descriptions, European Central Bank April 2026 tokenized money market fund study, and reference to August 4 industry reports. For informational discussion only, not investment advice. ISM beats expectations, but yields fall against the trend—what is the market really pricing in?
The just-released US July ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 55.6, far exceeding the expected 54.0, marking the highest reading in nearly four years. New orders, production, and employment sub-indices all expanded, showing economic resilience that’s almost unbelievable.
Logically, such data should ignite rate hike expectations and push up Treasury yields. But the reality is quite the opposite—10-year and 30-year Treasury futures both surged, with yields significantly declining. Data rising while rates fall is a rare divergence, signaling a more subtle message from the market: investors no longer equate "strong data" with "hawkish policy" but focus more on marginal changes in inflation.
Why are yields falling instead of rising? The core reason is that the market is shifting from "trading growth" to "trading inflation peaking." The return of US-Iran negotiations triggered a single-day plunge in crude oil prices by over 7%, sharply lowering future inflation expectations due to the drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly called for the Fed to expand liquidity tools to support the yen; if implemented, Japan’s passive selling pressure on US Treasuries will ease significantly. These two forces combined have led the long bond market to reprice a more moderate interest rate path—even with strong economic growth, the Fed may signal a pivot at some point this year.
For Wall Street, this is a classic "Goldilocks" narrative: strong growth, cooling inflation. Low yields mean lower financing costs, especially favorable for long-duration assets. AI, semiconductors, and large tech stocks are direct beneficiaries, with capital rotating out of bonds and back into growth stocks accelerating. If subsequent service sector PMI, CPI, and other data further confirm the "disinflation" trend, US equities still have short-term upside potential.
Crypto assets also share this liquidity dividend. Rising risk appetite combined with falling real rates provides solid macro support for BTC and ETH. As long as Bitcoin holds above key support levels, capital is likely to spill over along the risk curve into leading altcoins, driving a broader rebound. However, it’s important to emphasize that this logic still heavily depends on data validation—if upcoming CPI or PPI unexpectedly rebounds, the "Goldilocks" scenario could be disproven at any time, and the market will reprice tightening risks.
Investors currently need to watch three key indicators: ISM Services Index, CPI, and PPI. If all three confirm inflation is falling without growth faltering, the current unusual "stocks and bonds rising together" scenario will evolve into a new normal, with capital expected to continue flowing from cash and safe-haven assets into risk assets.
In short, yields are more informative than the data itself. When growth is strong but rates fall, it often signals a global capital reshuffle—smart money is betting that "easing, even if delayed, will not be absent."
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#ISMBeatYieldsFall
#USJapanYenIntervention
$SNDK $BTC#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
SpaceX's earnings report exceeded expectations, but the real "big test" is the unlock on August 6!
Brothers, yesterday we discussed the numbers from SpaceX's first earnings report, today let's dig into an even more critical issue—the epic unlock on August 6! No matter how good the earnings are, with 912 million shares hitting the market, can it handle the pressure?
The earnings are indeed strong
Revenue of 7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year, Starlink users surpass 12 million, AI revenue quadrupled. Adjusted EBITDA is 3.53 billion, up 191% year-over-year, fundamentals are solid.
But the real eye of the storm is August 6
About 912 million shares held by employees and early investors will be unlocked, accounting for nearly 40% of the total float! What does this mean?
🔍 Three key questions:
1️⃣ What was the employee cost basis? Early employees may have acquired shares at just a few dollars, even at the current price of $114, that’s tens or even hundreds of times profit. The incentive to sell is very strong.
2️⃣ Who is most likely to sell? Early VCs and former employees—once the lock-up expires, locking in profits is instinctive. Current employees might hold on, as they are optimistic about the long term.
3️⃣ Can the market absorb it? The average daily trading volume over the past month was about 32 million shares; 912 million shares means nearly a month’s worth of selling pressure released at once. Short-term pressure is inevitable.
Historical reference
After Tesla’s 2020 stock split unlock, the stock price dropped 21% short term but recovered fully and hit new highs three months later. Will SpaceX replicate this? The key is whether there is enough strong capital to absorb the shares.
Strategy reference
Short-term traders: Volatility will be huge around the unlock, be cautious about bottom-fishing, wait for selling pressure to ease before considering.
Long-term believers: If you trust Musk’s vision of the stars and the sea, this could be a golden opportunity. Morgan Stanley’s target price is $300, current price is only $114.
Watch signals: Whether executives increase holdings after unlock, whether large institutions step in, and the progress of the Starship test flight.
Brothers, how will you act on August 6? Will you wait for a big drop to buy the dip, or play it safe and watch first? Fundamental Research Report $SAND / The Sandbox (GameFi) $3.20
Conclusion first: The Sandbox ($SAND) overall score 49/100, rating Early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: The Sandbox (token $SAND), GameFi sector. Focused on metaverse gaming. Comparable to MANA, AXS. Traditional centralized platforms take 15-40% commission, user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average spend per user $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: The Sandbox $3.00B, MANA undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. FDV: The Sandbox $4.20B, MANA undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. Annual revenue: The Sandbox $2.00M, MANA undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: The Sandbox undisclosed, MANA undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. To conclude: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now, share your thoughts in the comments.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitAster tells a very complete story of "high leverage + multi-chain + buyback," but the market ultimately only pays for sustained trading volume and real revenue—both of which are currently insufficient.
$ASTER is the native token of a high-leverage, multi-chain perpetual contract DEX. The story sounds great, but the high FDV, severe dilution pressure, and concentrated supply make it more like a speculative asset dependent on trading volume and hype rather than a truly robust long-term asset.
With a maximum supply of 800 million tokens and about 270 million currently circulating, the FDV still reaches approximately $4.8-5 billion, while the market cap is only around $1.6 billion. Future unlocks and ecosystem allocations account for a very high proportion, making long-term selling pressure obvious. Although there is a 99% fee buyback and burn mechanism, whether it can truly hedge large-scale unlocks highly depends on sustained high trading volume—once trading declines, the buyback strength will significantly weaken.
On-chain data shows that a few wallets hold most of the supply. This structure easily leads to "whale manipulation" or concentrated sell-off risks, making it difficult for retail investors to truly have a voice. Although the community allocation is high, actual control remains relatively concentrated.
The perpetual contract DEX sector is already crowded, with strong competitors like Hyperliquid having advantages in liquidity, product experience, and brand recognition. Aster focuses on multi-chain, high leverage (up to 1001x), hidden orders, and yield-bearing collateral, which sounds good, but the differentiation is not enough to form an absolute moat. User migration costs are low, and loyalty is often maintained through incentives.
From the all-time high of about $2.4 in September 2025, the price has fallen to around $0.60, a drop of over 70%. After early rapid growth driven by airdrops, acquisition stories, and endorsements, the hype has clearly cooled down. Since the buyback mechanism went live, the price has not shown a strong reversal, indicating that the market still doubts its long-term value capture ability.
Although there are yield products like asBNB, USDF, and plans for Aster Chain, the overall model still heavily relies on trading volume. Once the market enters a low volatility or capital outflow phase, fee income declines, and both buyback and staking yields will be simultaneously impaired, creating a negative feedback loop.
$BNB $BTC Yesterday (8/4), the US stock market posted another solid long-term gain, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains, with all three major indices hitting new records. The Dow surged 907 points, up 1.71%, closing at a historic high of 54,085, marking the first time it surpassed the 54,000 mark; The S&P 500 also rose 1.79%, closing near 7,736, marking the first closing record in nearly two months; The Nasdaq was even stronger, rising 2.59% to close at 26,585, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.27%. Basically, the logic behind this rally continues from the previous day. The market continues to bet on whether the US and Iran can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a conclusion, causing crude oil to hit new lows. Coupled with better-than-expected earnings season performance, these two factors combined have led to capital continuing to flow into risk assets. It must be said that this round of earnings was truly impressive. Palantir surged nearly 17% before the market opened, with both the earnings and forecasts far exceeding market expectations, effectively giving confidence in all AI concept stocks a strong boost. Caterpillar's earnings report also performed well, driving industrial stocks higher. However, not everyone is happy. Although Amazon's market value just surpassed $3 trillion on Monday, its stock price fell nearly 2% on Tuesday after Bezos announced he would sell about $4 billion worth of stock; AMD released its earnings report after hours, and the numbers were actually quite good, but the stock price still fell in the after-hours period. To be honest, this reflects that expectations for AI-related stocks have already been set too high—if they don't exceed expectations, they're easily sold off. The most eye-catching of all📊 Macro Update: A Potential Tailwind for Crypto
The latest U.S. macro data delivered a constructive signal for risk assets.
The ISM Services PMI came in stronger than expected, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy remains resilient. At the same time, Treasury yields moved lower—a combination that can improve financial conditions and support investor appetite for risk.
Why it matters:
📈 A resilient economy helps ease recession concerns and supports confidence.
📉 Lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding risk assets, often encouraging capital to rotate into equities and cryptocurrencies.
For digital assets, that's a favorable backdrop.
🟠 $BTC continues to reinforce its role as digital gold and remains the primary destination for institutional capital when liquidity conditions improve.
🔵 $ETH could benefit from renewed interest in blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, tokenization, and broader on-chain activity as risk appetite strengthens.
If Treasury yields continue to trend lower while economic data remains resilient, the macro environment could become increasingly supportive for crypto over the coming weeks.
The next major move may depend less on headlines—and more on whether liquidity continues to improve.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#SpaceXQ1Report #AMDQ2BeatDebate #FedSplitGoesPublic #ISM hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall
The ISM Manufacturing PMI exploded last night.
July data at 55.6, expected 54, previous 53.3. Highest since May 2022, seventh consecutive month of expansion. Production index at 58.5, highest since the end of 2021. New export orders and backlog orders strengthened across the board. Employment index rose for the first time since September last year.
Then US Treasury yields fell.
The 10-year yield dropped from 4.75% to about 4.69%, and the 30-year yield retreated from 5.28%. The stronger the data, the lower the rates—how to explain this picture?
Three reasons.
First, the market is pricing in the "Waugh credibility crisis."
Bank of America’s head of rates strategy, Cabana, said it’s a "typical inflation credibility shock." Since Waugh took office, forward guidance was scrapped, and the market is uncertain about the inflation path. Over the past decade, the Fed managed expectations through guidance, but now that path is broken. The 30-year term premium surged to 1.51%, the highest since 2013. Cabana bluntly said the Fed must rebuild market confidence at the September meeting.
Second, pricing pressure in manufacturing is easing.
The ISM price index fell from 73 to 71.1, declining for three consecutive months. Although 71.1 is still high, the trend is softening. Some respondents said current pricing volatility is "worse than during the pandemic," but the trend is improving.
Third, the market is betting "strong economy = inflation will eventually fall."
Goldman Sachs has raised its Q3 GDP tracking forecast from 1.5% to 2.4%. A strong economy means supply is recovering, and supply recovery will ultimately suppress prices. This is a counterintuitive but reasonable logic.
Short-term risk of going long on long-term bonds remains high. The 30-year yield is above 5.2%, and traders are still betting it will hit 5.4% before August 21. JPMorgan has raised its year-end forecast for the 10-year to 4.85% and the 30-year to 5.40%. But the ISM price sub-index falling for three consecutive months is an early signal. If August CPI continues to soften, long bonds may see a tactical rebound window.
At this position, I’m not chasing short positions on long bonds, nor going all in to bottom-fish. Keep cash and wait for CPI to confirm direction.
For the crypto market, a stronger ISM is short-term bearish for BTC—strong economy and rate hike expectations weigh on it. But the drop in long bond yields gives some breathing room. These two forces are tugging, and BTC will most likely continue to trade sideways around 65,000. The real direction will be decided by August CPI and the September FOMC.The ETH bulls who jumped the gun last night have withdrawn, but the bears didn't manage to hold 1853.
Looking at three complete 4H candles after 20:00, ETH open interest dropped from about 2,369,000 to 2,329,000, a decrease of 1.7%; the price only fell from 1872.9 to 1869.8, down 0.17%. This isn't bulls piling on recklessly, but rather leverage exiting on its own, with selling pressure not synchronously breaking the price.
The problem is that spot still refuses to catch up: the latest 4H volume is 17,200 ETH, 49% lower than the average of the previous five candles, and ETH/BTC has slid to 0.02917.
Let me revise last night's key point: don't chase longs here, but even less chase shorts. Bears can't even break 1853 with leverage withdrawing, so prove yourselves first; a 4H volume surge closing above 1883 is when bulls take over. If the 4H candle closes below 1853, I'll change my stance.
Are you betting on first sweeping 1853, or first reclaiming 1883? $ETH #ETH News Analysis: Iran and Oman Make Positive Progress in Hormuz Strait Negotiations
Event Essence: Signs of easing in Middle East conflict; the Hormuz Strait is a critical global oil transport route. Progress in negotiations indicates a reduced risk of blockade or escalation of military conflict.
Transmission Logic to the Crypto Market (Crypto Circle)
1. Decline in Risk Aversion Sentiment (Bearish for Crypto as a Safe Haven)
With the easing of Middle East tensions and reduced geopolitical war panic, funds are flowing out of safe-haven assets. Previously, when the Strait situation was tense, some funds bought Bitcoin as a safe haven; now with conflict de-escalation, this safe-haven buying diminishes.
2. Suppression of International Crude Oil Prices
Lower war risk weakens oil price expectations. Falling oil prices further reduce global inflation expectations, theoretically benefiting risk assets. However, this is an indirect chain with slow transmission.
3. Two Market Scenarios
• Short term: As geopolitical panic subsides, the crypto market may see a slight pullback as funds speculating on war expectations exit;
• Medium term: If oil prices continue to fall and inflation cools, it strengthens market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, indirectly creating some liquidity optimism for the crypto space.
4. Key Point: Only Negotiation Progress, Not a Final Agreement
Currently, it is only "positive progress" without a finalized result; the situation can reverse at any time. The market will not experience a direct, unilateral surge or plunge but rather emotional disturbances, unlikely to change the overall market trend, mostly serving as a short-term trading speculation excuse. $BTC $ETH #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？
AMD earnings report: The data is flawless, but the market is just not satisfied. How will this story continue?
Right after releasing the Q2 report, AMD's stock dropped nearly 9 points in after-hours trading, falling to around 473.
Let's lay out the data first. Revenue hit 11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high, and EPS of 1.66 also beat expectations. The data center segment is the main driver, selling 6.7 billion, doubling year-over-year, accounting for nearly 60% of revenue. On the surface, no issues.
The problem lies in the guidance for Q3. The company gave a figure around 13 billion, higher than Wall Street's average expectation of 12.5 billion, but it didn't satisfy some aggressive investors. These folks are betting on a surge in AI demand and had set their expectations too high. Earnings beating expectations but stock price falling is quite common in tech stocks because the market focuses on the "expectation gap."
Let's talk about the bigger picture. This earnings report also signals that capital expenditure soared to 808 million, compared to only 282 million in the same period last year, showing heavy investment. Lisa Su stated in the conference call that data center sales are expected to double next year, with server revenue in the second half up over 80% year-over-year. The long-term logic remains intact.
What about specific trading actions?
The stock has already dropped to 473 pre-market; don't rush to catch the falling knife. The first support is around 460-470, and below that, 450 is a previous dense chip area and a position where big money can hold.
For those wanting to go long, wait for the price to first hit the 452-458 range and show volume expansion with a stop in the decline before considering building positions in batches. Set stop loss below 440. The first target is a rebound to 490-495; if sentiment recovers well, 510-515 is the next hurdle.
For short sellers, if the market opens lower but then rallies to 485-490 with obvious volume contraction and no strength to rise further, you can try a light short position with stop loss above 498. The initial target is 460; if broken, then look at 445. But short positions are a short-term strategy; take profits when appropriate and don't fight the major trend for too long.
The fundamentals of this stock haven't collapsed; what's broken is short-term sentiment and chip battles. Once panic selling exhausts, opportunities may arise. $AMD