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US-Iran negotiations advance, oil prices fall below $80, crypto market faces new variables
Recently, market focus has shifted again to geopolitical changes. As US-Iran talks signal easing, the crude oil market reacted first, with WTI crude prices quickly retreating below the $80 mark. Changes in energy prices often impact not only traditional markets but also transmit to the crypto market through inflation expectations, the US dollar trend, and risk appetite.
Looking at the hourly K-line of CL crude oil futures, the trend is quite clear. Previously, WTI crude prices surged to around $88.30, then began a continuous correction, falling steadily. The current quote is about $76.35, with a 24-hour high of $82.38 and a low dipping to $74.36. The intraday volatility range reached about $8, with amplitude exceeding 10%, indicating a clear shift in market sentiment.
Technically, crude oil has formed a downtrend after falling from a high, with short-term moving averages weakening. Currently, MA5 is 75.32, MA10 is 75.39, and MA20 is 75.76, with all three averages clustered in the $75-$76 range. The price has moved back above the moving averages, indicating some short-term rebound demand. However, the overall structure remains weak; the first resistance to break is the $78-$80 range, which would then open the chance to challenge previous pressure levels.
Volume also reflects market changes. During the rapid price drop from the high, volume significantly increased, indicating concentrated capital adjustment. Now, after falling near $75, volume is gradually shrinking, and the market is entering a re-pricing phase. Both bulls and bears are waiting for further confirmation from US-Iran negotiations and subsequent supply changes.
For the crypto market, the oil price drop is not just an energy market event. If crude oil continues to weaken, it suggests reduced market concerns about supply pressure and inflation risk, which could affect dollar pressure, interest rate expectations, and risk asset sentiment. For mainstream crypto assets like BTC and ETH, the macro liquidity environment remains a key variable.
Recently, BTC and ETH have also been in a consolidation phase, with no clear one-sided trend. Capital is focused on Federal Reserve policy expectations on one hand and awaiting new macro catalysts on the other. If energy prices continue to fall, it may provide some breathing room for risk assets; but if geopolitical tensions escalate again, safe-haven sentiment could quickly rise.
Currently, WTI crude has fallen more than $10 from the $88.30 high. The short-term key levels to watch are: support near $74 on the downside, which if broken may seek a new balance; and the $80 whole number resistance on the upside, which if firmly reclaimed would indicate some market sentiment recovery.
Markets can be interesting; yesterday they were trading inflation pressure from rising energy prices, today they are trading price declines from peace expectations. For crypto investors, rather than predicting a single direction, understanding changes in capital risk appetite is more important. Every macro market fluctuation ultimately transmits liquidity onto the blockchain.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
$CL $BTC $ETH Up to approximately 912 million shares held by SpaceX employees and pre-IPO shareholders will become eligible for sale on August 6, 2026. Since the cost basis for these early holdings is far below the $135 IPO price, some employees and early investors have a strong incentive to cash out and diversify their holdings. SpaceX's stock price has already dropped about 49% from its June peak and fell further after the earnings report due to AI capital expenditures and cash flow pressure in after-hours trading.
With up to 912 million shares becoming available for sale, the float could potentially double, and in extreme cases, even triple compared to now. The cost basis for early employees and investors is very low, so it would be difficult for anyone to completely resist cashing out.
The company's revenue is growing rapidly, and the Starlink and AI narratives are strong, but in the short term, the biggest risk to the stock price is "a good company facing a large supply of shares."
The SPCX I hold will likely continue to experience volatility in the coming days. Let's first watch the trading volume and how much insiders actually sell.
$SPCX 🔥The US stock market just hit an epic new high! The Dow broke 54,000 for the first time, the S&P broke 7,700 for the first time, but the real fireworks happened after hours...
Brothers, last night (August 4, Eastern Time) the US stock market staged a "do-or-die rebound" drama—the Dow surged 907.47 points, up 1.71%, breaking 54,000 for the first time ever to close at 54,085.88; the S&P 500 rose 1.79% to 7,736.51, surpassing 7,700 for the first time; the Nasdaq was even more aggressive, soaring 2.59% to 26,584.99. Both the Dow and S&P set new all-time closing highs, with the S&P marking its 25th record close this year.
But this isn’t just an ordinary new high. This is a king’s return clawing out of the "summer storm"! The Nasdaq has rebounded nearly 10% from last week’s low, the Mag 7 have surged nearly 10% over four days, Amazon’s market cap has returned to $3 trillion, and Nvidia has reclaimed a $5 trillion market cap.
The real highlight: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index skyrocketed 6.55% in a single day! ARM surged over 17%, Intel and SanDisk jumped over 10%, SK Hynix rose over 8%, Micron gained 7.62%, Broadcom climbed over 6%. Do you know what this means? This index plunged 20.6% in July and now has exploded straight out of the deep pit! Plus, Palantir’s earnings blew expectations with a 29.5% single-day surge, and Caterpillar raised guidance due to AI data center demand, rising 5.6%—the AI narrative not only remains intact but was slapped back into the spotlight by earnings.
⚠️ But! Don’t get carried away by the closing rally; the real "earnings kill" scene is after hours: SpaceX plunged nearly 9% after hours, despite Q2 revenue doubling to $7.8 billion and beating expectations, its net loss of $541 million and EPS of -$0.09 fell far short of market expectations; AMD also plunged over 10% after hours, despite beating earnings across the board, its Q3 revenue guidance failed to meet the most optimistic forecasts. Limit-up during the day, earnings kill at night—this is the split personality of the current US stock market.
The driving logic is actually twofold:
First, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hinted that the US and Iran might reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "today or tomorrow," causing international oil prices to plunge 6%, Brent crude to fall below $80, and inflation expectations to cool instantly, with the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping 5.08 basis points;
Second, AI capital expenditure returns were finally validated during earnings season, shifting the market sentiment from "doubting AI" back to "chasing AI."
But don’t get too excited. CMB Research clearly points out: The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July, with three members supporting a 25bp hike, and Fed’s Waller signaling a hawkish stance for the first time, keeping the probability of a 25bp hike this year alive. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike remains between 56.9%-58.4%. In other words, oil prices have dropped, but the inflation tension hasn’t eased.
My judgment (not investment advice): This is a "geopolitical risk premium fading + AI earnings realization" driven short squeeze rebound, with semiconductors bouncing hardest out of the deep pit, but the after-hours earnings hits on SpaceX and AMD serve as a warning—valuation risks remain. Next, watch two things: whether the Hormuz agreement can really be signed, and whether August tech earnings guidance can hold up to expectations. If not, that will be the start of another "summer storm."
Remember one thing: New highs are not the end; after hours is the truth detector. The above is market observation only, not investment advice. Don’t blame me if you lose money, but buy me coffee if you make money ☕
🏷️ Keywords: #USStockNewHigh #DowBreaks54000 #SPBreaks7700 #PhillySemiSurge #PalantirUp29% #SpaceXEarningsKill #AMDAfterHoursPlunge #HormuzAgreement #AIEarningsSeason #FedWaller #SeptemberRateHike #2026USStockHotAnalysis [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, AMD's earnings revenue, profit, and data center all exceeded expectations, so why did the stock drop nearly 9% after hours?
Pharaoh directly says, the performance is indeed strong, but the market isn't looking at "good or bad," it's looking at "enough to explode." Q2 revenue hit 11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year, data center soared to 6.7 billion, doubling year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.66 all exceeded expectations. The problem lies in two points.
First, market expectations have already been fully priced into the stock. AMD's stock price has more than doubled this year, and the market had long priced in these positives. The Q3 guidance is 13 billion, although higher than the analysts' average expectation of 12.5 billion, the most aggressive on Wall Street have already seen 13.5-14 billion. The 13 billion median is seen by them as "not aggressive enough," and this gap directly crushed the stock.
Second, capital expenditure exploded. Q2 capital expenditure was 808 million, while the market expected only 300 million, nearly three times more. Investing heavily in AI infrastructure is a good thing, but the market fears endless cash burn, similar to Google's situation back then.
Lisa Su said data center will double again by 2027, and the Helios rack system started shipping to Meta and OpenAI this quarter. The story is still being told, but the market has already entered "accounting mode."
Follow Pharaoh, and wealth won't get lost! $ETH $BTC $SNDK #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion in future lease payments—mainly for building data centers that support AI development. How much money is there? This is nearly four times the total recognized lease liabilities of these five companies ($285 billion). Due to accounting rules, signed but not yet operational data center leases are usually not immediately recorded on the balance sheet but disclosed as "future payment obligations"—meaning a large portion of this $1.09 trillion commitment remains "invisible." The risk is: if AI demand growth slows, these giants will face the dual blow of long-term high rent payments and idle capacity. Oracle's risk exposure is the most prominent—unstarted lease commitments reach $260 billion, nearly seven times the recognized lease liabilities, with lease terms typically ranging from 15 to 19 years. Microsoft disclosed $32.9 billion, Meta disclosed $27.9 billion and signed an additional $68 billion agreement in July, while Alphabet and Amazon disclosed $85.2 billion and $13.7 billion respectively. Analysts point out that $1.09 trillion cannot simply be regarded as corporate debt (most leases are multi-year, undiscounted, and lease liabilities reflect present value), but the scale itself shows that tech giants are locked in AI infrastructure at an unprecedented pace. The "narrative divergence" over AI capital spending is turning into a "debt figure" test. If demand arrives on schedule, these leases serve as a moat; If demand falls short of expectations, they will be made#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
SanDisk $SNDK's earnings report tonight is interesting. As one of the most volatile stocks in the US market, after this earnings release, will it go north or south? In the short term, the market is not focused on quarterly profits but on whether the AI storage logic can continue to be realized and how strong the profitability really is.
In the past, the market only looked at AI computing power, but the bottleneck for AI development in the future may not only be GPUs but also data storage and transmission efficiency. Models are getting larger, inference demands are increasing, and storage is becoming a crucial part of AI infrastructure. SanDisk and SK Hynix are promoting HBF high-bandwidth flash memory, essentially competing for a new market between HBM and SSD.
I am more focused on the long-term logic of AI storage rather than simply betting on earnings beating expectations. Good earnings at best prove solid growth over the past few quarters; but what truly determines whether the stock price can continue to rise are future AI orders, long-term contracts, capacity constraints, and margin improvements.
The storage industry has traditionally been cyclical, with the biggest risk being supply-demand reversals. But if AI demand continues to expand, storage may shift from a price cycle to demand-driven. It's like the market used to sell buckets, but now in the AI era, what’s needed are high-speed water pipes; the demand structure is changing.
So, in the short term, SanDisk is about earnings; in the long term, it’s about the AI storage track. If performance just meets expectations, the stock price may see the positive effects priced in, but if it proves that AI storage demand continues to explode, the market may revalue it.
What’s truly worth focusing on long-term is not short-term price fluctuations but who can become the builder of the data superhighway in the AI era. To echo Sun Ge’s words, the market will always lack storage!
The above is just my personal opinion! AMD's earnings exceeded expectations! The big drop taught everyone a lesson: doubling this year was actually just to give everyone a chance to exit.
AMD's earnings numbers this time aren't bad at all—$11.5 billion in revenue, data center revenue doubled year-over-year, and profits hit a new high. Yet after hours, the stock plunged nearly 9%.
To be blunt, it's not that the company is weak; it's that expectations were pushed to the extreme beforehand. The stock price has already more than doubled this year, and the market had already priced in the AI chip runner-up's takeoff. You deliver a decent report, but not crazier than the wildest guesses, and the funds turn against you.
What frustrates bulls are two points: first, gross margin. Non-GAAP at 56%, GAAP only 54%. The new Helios platform is still ramping up capacity and burning capital expenditures. The profit actually pocketed per dollar earned hasn't jumped further, so everyone wonders if this growth is achieved by sacrificing margin and piling on costs.
Second, the business is too skewed. Data center revenue up 107% supports the whole picture, but gaming revenue dropped 31% year-over-year. The traditional segment is soft, AI is booming on one leg while the other is shaky. The market asks: if Nvidia is eating the meat and you're just having soup, when customers really face shortages, who gets cut first—you or Nvidia?
To convince the stock price later, don't talk to me about visions; focus on three concrete things:
- After the new architecture runs smoothly, can gross margin steadily hold at 56% or even higher?
- Are cloud providers and big clients like OpenAI/Meta/Anthropic truly locking in long-term, real cash orders, rather than just temporary fills during shortage seasons?
- Can gaming and PC stop dragging behind? Don't let data center alone carry all the valuation.
In the short term, I see this as an emotional purge. After such a big run-up, a drop is normal. It'll grind for a while. I'm not pessimistic mid-term; dual sourcing is a must for big manufacturers, AMD's position remains. Once capacity is realized and profit margins rise, valuation can be re-rated. But the premise is you hold on and don't panic-sell during after-hours plunges like this.
AI hardware stocks no longer listen to stories; they start calculating quarter by quarter. Only those who can turn revenue into clean profit and orders into cash flow deserve to be called core assets; the rest are just emotional chips.
Every day I analyze these earnings reports that are good but cause big drops, and casually write short comments on the most common traps retail investors fall into: expectation gaps, gross margin traps, and single-core driver risks. Want to see how AMD moves next or how to act when you face an earnings beat but a crash? Feel free to chat!
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ U.S. stocks hit new highs again! The market is completely split between bulls and bears amid the frenzy
$SNDK $MU
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hit record highs, the Nasdaq surged 2.59%, and the tech AI sector collectively exploded, but on the other hand, alarms have already sounded. The current U.S. stock market presents both profit opportunities and risk hazards.
On the market front, the entire AI industry chain is strengthening. The semiconductor sector saw SK Hynix and Micron Technology surge significantly; the optical communication sector experienced a violent rally, with AAOI soaring over 21%; Palantir's earnings far exceeded expectations, soaring nearly 30% in a single day, with both revenue and profit booming, solidly validating the commercialization capability of AI software. Many short positions were forcibly liquidated by the rally, further pushing stock prices higher.
Positive news is not only from corporate earnings. The U.S. and Iran are expected to reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices to plunge sharply, easing inflationary pressure and supporting risk assets. 85% of S&P component companies reported earnings above expectations, showing strong corporate earnings resilience. AI is still viewed by the market as a core growth engine, and market sentiment has shifted from previous pessimism back to neutral.
However, behind the lively market, divisions have reached a peak.
The famous big short Burry has once again warned of risks, extending his Nvidia short position to June 2027, warning the market of a possible crash similar to 1987. On one side, institutions remain bullish, optimistic that earnings will continue to drive the market; on the other side, the short camp repeatedly warns: August to October is historically a high-risk window for U.S. stocks, current overall valuations are at historic highs, leverage funds have accumulated, and once sentiment reverses, volatility will be amplified multiple times.
A very noteworthy signal: while the index hits new highs, the VIX fear index is rising simultaneously. This combination is rare historically, indicating many are superficially following the rally but quietly buying insurance to hedge risks.
Going forward, two major variables need close attention:
First, the U.S.-Iran negotiations are uncertain; if talks collapse, oil prices will rebound, bringing inflationary pressure again;
Second, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are rising, with a 56.9% probability of a hike in September, and high-valuation tech stocks will directly face liquidity pressure.
From a market perspective, the tech AI sector remains the main driver in the short term, but the seasonal adjustment window from August to October is approaching.
Operationally, a cautiously optimistic approach is suitable; avoid blindly chasing highs. While positioning in growth sectors, also reserve some allocation for defensive hedging, focusing on AI infrastructure and semiconductor directions, while being wary of correction risks from valuation bubbles.
Risk reminder: The above is only a market information review and does not constitute any investment advice. Market Snapshot
BTC current price is $64,088.40, up 0.52% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 1.71 percentage points, indicating notable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $64,542.70, the low was $63,450.30, with a trading volume of $370.22M, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 55 assets rose and 55 fell, with a 50.0 percentage point rise ratio, making the sentiment clear at a glance.
In the TeleFi/Memecoin sector, watch $NOT; trading volume is small, so first see if smart money makes a move.
In other sectors, watch $ENS; volatility has narrowed, wait for directional choice before acting.
Top 3 gainers are $BICO +48.68%, $GRVT +16.21%, $XSOXL +13.47%; smart money has already placed their bets.
Top 3 losers are $AEON -9.41%, $LDO -9.16%, $ETHFI -6.95%; profit-taking players have abruptly exited.
My view: The number of rising and falling assets sets the tone, the leaders in gains and losses set the direction; don’t go against smart money.
Data comes from OKX public spot market, for informational purposes only, not investment advice.
That’s all for now; the decision is in your hands. SanDisk Earnings Eve: Whether the performance explodes or not is no longer important; the market is looking at the 2027 script
SanDisk will release its Q4 earnings after the market closes tonight. The stock price has recently dropped from the June high of 2354 to around 1100, more than halving.
Goldman Sachs and Bernstein are collectively bullish, with target prices getting higher and higher, but the market just isn't buying it.
Why?
First, a 78.4% gross margin is already the industry ceiling. SanDisk's Q3 non-GAAP gross margin reached 78.4%, far exceeding the industry average of 30%-40%.
Can this number go higher?
The company's own Q4 guidance is 79%-81%, basically within this range. The possibility of the performance greatly exceeding expectations is low because the market expectation has already been raised to 8.39 billion in revenue and over $33 EPS, which is higher than the company's guidance.
Second, the recent decline is not due to poor performance but because it rose too much. SanDisk went from 40 to 2354 in one year, a 50-fold increase. Coupled with news of South Korea expanding production and Meta selling computing power triggering a collective sell-off in AI hardware, highly leveraged funds are clearing out. The market is speculating on expectations; good performance has already been priced in.
How to operate?
Bullish strategy: If earnings exceed expectations (revenue over 8.5 billion, EPS above $35), there may be a short-term rise of 15%-25%. But don't chase; wait for a pullback confirmation, support levels are around 1000-1050, stop loss set below 950.
Bearish strategy: If performance only meets expectations (8-8.3 billion), the market may not accept it and could "pump then dump." Watch 1150-1200.
Performance is likely not bad, but whether the stock price can rise depends on whether management provides optimistic guidance for 2027. $SNDK $SNXX $DRAM 📊 August 4th Live Trading Report
Starting Capital: 40U
Yesterday's Account: 358U
Current Account: Approximately 140U
Withdrawn: 50U (Recovered initial capital)
Daily Drawdown: -60.8%
Maximum Drawdown: -60.8% (Broke through 20% risk control line)
Running Days: Day 6
❌ Today's Operation Review
Today's Closed Positions (Losses):
Coin Direction Loss Return Rate Error Type
SNDK Short -114.52U -226% Fighting against the trend
OP Short -11.26U -50%+ Fighting against the trend
META Short -3.75U -38% Fighting against the trend
KORU Short -57.33U -120% Emotion-driven entry
Today's Closed Positions (Profits):
Coin Direction Profit Return Rate
WLD Long +7.14U +16%
Net Loss for the Day: Approximately -218U
🔍 Root Cause Analysis
1. Fighting against the trend — The fatal flaw of heavy SNDK position
SNDK short entry price 1294, exit price 1351, loss 114U. This was the largest loss source today. Reviewing the trade, SNDK was clearly in an uptrend on August 4th, yet I increased short positions against the trend. This violates the core principle of the live trading challenge — follow the trend, do not fight against it.
2. Emotion-driven entry — The failure of KORU
KORU short lost 57U, entry price 16.05, exit price 17.98. This trade was a revenge trade after consecutive losses, with no technical basis, purely driven by the desire to "win back". This is the most dangerous state in trading.
3. Risk control discipline failure
The previously set rule "stop trading if max drawdown reaches 20%" was completely broken today. Drawdown broke through 20% all the way to 60%, but no timely stop loss was executed. This is not a market problem, but an execution problem.
📌 Disciplines that must be corrected
1. Stop trading immediately if daily loss exceeds 20U: Today's loss was 218U, almost all previous profits were given back. If stopped at 20U loss, the outcome would be completely different.
2. Admit when direction is wrong: SNDK was in an uptrend, shorting against the trend was wrong. Cut losses and exit instead of adding positions to fight.
3. Do not open new positions after consecutive losses: After losses expanded today, multiple ineffective trades like KORU were opened, purely emotion-driven.
4. Pause trading at 20% drawdown: Should have stopped when account dropped from 358U to 286U (-20%), not continued down to 140U.
💡 Net Asset Attribution Analysis
From 358U down to 140U, loss of 218U mainly from:
· SNDK fighting against the trend: -114U (52%)
· KORU emotion-driven entry: -57U (26%)
· Other stop loss trades combined: -47U (22%)
Current Account Status:
· Total assets: 140U
· Withdrawn: 50U (Safety cushion still intact)
· Total net value (including withdrawn): 190U
· Relative to starting capital 40U: Still up 150U (+375%)
Although today's drawdown was huge, the overall account remains profitable. This is the only good news.
📌 Next Phase Plan
1. Pause trading and calmly review: No new positions today, first manage existing positions
2. Strictly enforce risk control: Single loss not exceeding 5% of principal
3. Wait for confirmed signals: Only act when the market gives clear directional signals
4. Protect principal first: Profits can be given back, principal must be preserved
Lesson Summary:
Today I lost not money, but discipline. The profits accumulated over the first 5 days were wiped out by 60% in one day. This is not the market's fault, it's mine. Emotion-driven trading, fighting against the trend, ignoring risk control — these three errors combined, no account can withstand.
The first rule of trading: survive first, then talk about profits. $ETH has been consolidating at a high level for 3.4 days with no movement at all, and the rally lacks strength. How should retail investors operate?
Mainstream assets haven't been following the US stock market trend these past two days; instead, Ethereum has been oscillating between 1845 and 1880. From Wang Jie’s market view, there is no sign of a strong breakout; it looks more like a range-bound bull trap! Personally, I am short-term bearish, as the downtrend always persists.
In the short term, Ethereum’s minor support is around 1850. If the US stock market opens lower tonight, the coin price will most likely drop to around 1820–1800. Therefore, for those seeking stability, I personally suggest placing limit orders, prioritizing a target of 1845 over 1880! #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Is ETH staking about to be "put on the brakes"? EIP-8363 ignites the Ethereum monetary policy debate
Jerome de Tychey, Chairman of Ethereum France, posted on X that he, along with researchers including Justin Drake, submitted the "Tapered Issuance Burn" proposal.
The tweet initially referred to it as EIP-8361, but after EIP editors renumbered it, it has now been officially adjusted to EIP-8363.
Note that this proposal is still in the public review stage, has not been merged, and has not been confirmed for inclusion in any Ethereum upgrade.
The proposal states that the Ethereum staking rate will surpass one-third of the total supply by April 2026, and the current issuance curve means that even if all ETH participate in staking, the annualized yield will not fall below about 1.5%, implying that staking growth lacks a "stop switch."
According to its calculations, if validators continue to join the queue and saturate, by early 2028, the staking size could exceed 70 million ETH, accounting for more than 55% of the supply.
EIP-8363 proposes a solution to gradually deduct and burn part of the consensus layer rewards for validators based on the total network staking rate.
The burn ratio will increase as the staking rate rises, reaching 100% when the staking amount approaches 50% of the total supply, reducing net staking rewards to zero, thereby allowing the market to find a balance below 50% on its own.
The reward adjustment plan will be completed over 18 months, plus an upgrade preparation period, giving validators about two years to adapt.
The logic behind this proposal being positive for ETH price is straightforward: net issuance will decrease, supply growth becomes more controllable; combined with EIP-1559 transaction fee burns and Blob fee burns, ETH is more likely to enter a state of negative supply growth.
Holders also won’t be forced to stake just to counter inflation, potentially strengthening the native ETH’s monetary properties relative to LSTs and other staking derivatives.
If the market interprets this as Ethereum proactively constraining issuance, it could be beneficial for enhancing ETH’s scarcity premium in the long term.
However, the impact is not solely positive.
Reduced staking rewards may weaken the demand for locking up ETH; after some validators exit, more ETH will re-enter the circulating market.
Additionally, LSTs, re-staking, and DeFi products relying on staking rewards may be repriced, potentially causing selling pressure and volatility in the short term.
After the reward structure changes, the share of MEV and execution layer income will rise, possibly giving professional institutions a relative advantage.
In fact, the real disagreement centers on network security!
Supporters argue that more staking does not necessarily mean more security; continuous issuance will squeeze out independent stakers first through tax costs and dilution, ultimately concentrating stakes in custodial institutions and large service providers.
Opponents worry that cutting base rewards may first eliminate low-profit independent nodes, accelerating validator centralization and lowering the economic cost to attack the network.
Some community members also question why the approach is "issue first then burn" rather than directly reducing issuance, and whether the 50% target itself is still an arbitrary setting.
The proposal was made public less than 48 hours before the Hegotá upgrade proposal deadline, sparking procedural controversy.
The proposers responded that applying for discussion does not mean confirmed adoption; there are still several months of review ahead. Overall, if EIP-8363 is approved, it may be positive for the ETH supply narrative in the long term, but its impact on staking demand, validator structure, and short-term liquidity remains highly uncertain.
EIP-8363 is expected to continue fueling a public debate about ETH’s future monetary properties.#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 $TRUMP
Political risk is becoming the biggest variable for MEME coins.
U.S. Democratic Senators Warren and Blumenthal have requested the SEC to investigate the Trump token. This does not mean the project has violated any laws or that the SEC has officially filed a case, but it refocuses the market's attention on sensitive issues such as conflicts of interest, regulatory independence, and the issuance of crypto assets by political figures.
From a market perspective, Nansen data shows that by the end of June, about 989,000 accounts had accumulated losses of $3.81 billion, while Trump-related entities earned approximately $636 million. This huge contrast in interests easily attracts attention from both the market and regulators. Even if no violations are ultimately found, such events may undermine some investors' confidence in political concept coins and increase market volatility.
For the entire crypto market, this event mainly affects the MEME coin and political concept coin sectors, with relatively limited direct impact on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH. However, if the SEC formally initiates an investigation or introduces stricter regulatory frameworks targeting tokens issued by celebrities and political figures, the related sectors may undergo valuation reshaping, and short-term risk aversion sentiment could rise.
From a trader's perspective, this type of news is a typical regulatory sentiment event. In the short term, it can cause sharp volatility in the TRUMP token, even leading to high volatility and high turnover trading; the medium- to long-term trend depends on whether the investigation progresses substantively, changes in the U.S. political environment, and Trump's personal influence. For ordinary investors, the price of political concept coins is often influenced far more by news, public opinion, and election cycles than by fundamentals. When participating, it is advisable to control position size and set strict stop-losses to avoid mistaking emotional hotspots for long-term investment logic. $LUNC, one of the most tragic names in crypto history. Its predecessor was LUNA. Back when Terra collapsed, its market value of tens of billions was wiped out overnight, and countless wallets became digital tombstones. After the crash, some community members refused to give up, keeping the old chain and renaming it LUNC. From then on, they lived in the narrative of "we have to recover the token price through burning," and lived for several years. Today, it is falling again. The reason is simple: the previous wave of hype fueled by community sentiment is rapidly fading. Burn, burn, just destroy more and more destroy The LUNC community's favorite slogan is "Burn." It seems that as long as coins are kept burning and the supply decreases, the price will inevitably rise. This logic sounds pleasing but overlooks the most crucial question: what fuel is being burned? Is it genuine protocol income, or is it the community's own excitement and self-generated excitement? The problem with LUNC is that it has no substantial business behind it. No DeFi protocol generates fees, no on-chain applications attract users, and no institutions use it for payments. Its destruction is a castle in the air built on community sentiment. When emotions are high, everyone gathers to stir things up, with the candlestick flashing a bit; When sentiment fades, people disperse, selling pressure surges back in, and the price returns to its starting point. Each pulse is like a firework—light up once, then the night sky darkens. Burning doesn't mean price increases—this is a harsh math problem. Many people are easily drawn in by the word "burn" and jump in, thinking that fewer coins mean they must be worthless. But the reality is: burning reduces supply,[US Stocks Hit New Highs, Treasury Bonds Fluctuate, Oil Prices Plunge — BTC Waits for Direction Amid Conflicting Signals]
BTC remains sideways around 63300. In the first week of August, the price fell from above 65000 to around 62300 before stabilizing. It has barely reclaimed the 63000 level, but the momentum is weak. In the past 24 hours, it rebounded from a low of 62369 to around 63300. Bulls are defending, but lack the confidence to counterattack.
Tonight at the US market open, the three major indices all rose: the Dow Jones closed up 1.71%, the S&P 500 rose 1.79%, both hitting record closing highs. The Nasdaq gained 2.59%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.55%, with ARM soaring over 17%, Intel and SanDisk up more than 10%.
On the surface, it looks impressive, but there is a detail worth noting in the market.
**Oil prices plunged 6%, hitting the lowest level since July 13.** The trigger was news of progress in US-Iran negotiations — Bassent and Qatar representatives hinted that the US and Iran are close to an agreement, with a ceasefire possibly imminent. Inflation expectations cooled, US Treasury yields fell across the board by 4-6 basis points, and the 2-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest since July 20.
But BTC barely rose. It stayed around 63300, not even touching 64000.
This is quite interesting. Oil prices dropped 6%, US stocks hit new highs, risk assets are celebrating, yet BTC is flat. The market’s positive reaction to easing geopolitical tensions is muted — either due to insufficient liquidity or deeper structural issues with larger-scale capital.
**There are still problems on the Treasury side.** The 30-year Treasury yield briefly spiked to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Fed Chair Walsh’s proposal to reduce the number of rate meetings was interpreted by the market as a rollback in policy transparency, pushing term premiums higher. The Fed’s anti-inflation credibility is being questioned — investors are expressing distrust in long-term inflation and policy paths with real money.
Kansas Fed President Schmidt said on Tuesday: current rates are not high enough; tighter policy is needed. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson also warned: if core inflation remains high, monetary policy must be recalibrated.
This is the crux of the current market — oil prices fell, but the Fed dares not ease; US stocks rose, but the bond market is collapsing; BTC is caught in the middle, direction unclear.
**How is AIX’s strategy running?**
Before tonight’s US market open, AIX’s scan concluded: the 4-hour level remains bearish, but RSI near 40 shows initial oversold signs. The strategy is to watch if the 64000-64200 resistance can be effectively reclaimed in the short term. If BTC rebounds to 64000-64200 with declining volume, short; if price breaks below the 62000-62300 support zone, wait for volume and a stop-fall signal before considering a left-side long.
It will not chase longs at this level. It has factored in the oil price plunge news, but until the market structure signals a buy, the AI system’s logic is to "wait" — not every positive news turns into buying pressure.
**My trading direction**
62900-63100 is the first support, 64100-64300 is the first resistance. The 50-day moving average near 63400 is the core short-term anchor.
If BTC rebounds to 64000-64200 and meets resistance with shrinking volume, take a light short position, stop loss at 64800, target 63000-62500. If price retests 62300-62500 and stabilizes with volume and a stop-fall candlestick, take a light long position, stop loss at 61800, target 64000-64500.
If price continues to move sideways between 62500-64000, do nothing and let AIX monitor. When direction is unclear, the less you move, the longer you survive. Altcoin bulls are just beginning to spread, but the first batch of protective positions has already been swept back to break-even: the structure is improving, but the sustainability hasn't caught up yet.
Traderbamp is optimistic about $XPL expanding after reclaiming its range, entering at the current price, with 0.725 as the invalidation point, initially targeting 0.84; TraderGauls has already pocketed profits on $ZEC and turned it into a risk-free position, then exited the remaining positions at break-even, while $BTC test orders also hit stop-loss. Caleb is more restrained with $HYPE, waiting for a clear model before trading.
Overall judgment: this is not a confirmation of an altcoin season, but a tentative strengthening of a few structural coins. If $BTC cannot hold above the previous confirmation level of 65.4K, altcoin long positions should still be prioritized for protection; only when mainstream coins show strong volume and hold steady will $XPL's expansion have a more sustainable foundation. The above plans all lack official catalysts, so no opportunities are listed this round.
Will you lock in profits first, or wait for mainstream coin confirmation?
For informational and opinion purposes only, not investment advice.#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
SpaceX Fundamentals:
Rocket Company ❎
Starlink ✅
This SpaceX earnings report proves two things:
First, Starlink has grown into a real and strong cash flow machine.
Second, the market’s valuation of SpaceX is no longer just based on rockets and satellite internet but is betting on it becoming a super platform spanning communications, AI computing power, and space infrastructure.
Elon Musk’s goal of "$1 trillion revenue by 2030" can be seen as an extremely optimistic long-term roadmap.
Many still view SpaceX as a commercial rocket company, but the financial data paints a different picture: the Connectivity business contributed about 55% of this quarter’s revenue and is currently the company’s clearest profit engine.
As of Q2 2026, Starlink had about 12 million subscribers, doubling year-over-year. It has transformed from a high-risk aerospace project into a global communication network with recurring subscription revenue.
⭐️ Starlink’s advantage comes from SpaceX’s vertical integration.
However, user growth does not translate to proportional revenue growth.
The prospectus shows Starlink’s monthly ARPU dropped from $86 in Q1 2025 to $66 in Q1 2026, mainly due to international expansion and more low-price plans. In other words, Starlink is currently pursuing a "lower per-customer revenue, larger user base" strategy.
Key metrics to watch going forward:
· Whether user growth can continue to outpace ARPU decline
· Whether enterprise, aviation, shipping, and government customers can improve overall revenue quality
· Whether satellite depreciation, terminal subsidies, and network maintenance costs decrease with scale expansion.
⚠️ AI business is both a growth driver and the biggest risk.
AI revenue reached $2.56 billion this quarter, up 247% year-over-year, the most impressive growth in this report. But SpaceX simultaneously invested about $15.8 billion in AI infrastructure, increasing computing power to 1.4 gigawatts.
This creates the current key contradiction: AI business is indeed starting to generate revenue rapidly, but investment scale far exceeds current income, and the business model remains in a heavy asset expansion phase.
Areas to monitor next:
· Starlink subscriber count, ARPU, and enterprise customer revenue share
· Connectivity business operating margin
· AI revenue, signed contracts, computing power utilization, and AI capital expenditure
· The gap between operating cash flow and capital expenditure
· Starship testing, reuse, and commercial launch progress
· Whether cost per kilogram to orbit shows verifiable sustained decline
· Related-party transactions and cost allocation methods among different businesses
SanDisk SNDK | Complete Analysis of the Impact of the 8.6 Post-Market Financial Report. Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. U.S. stock earnings have been highly volatile, and the options market has priced this earnings with a two-way fluctuation of about 13%. Event: On August 5, East Coast released its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026 after market close (early morning of August 6 Beijing time). 1. Market Consensus Expectations 1. Official company guidance: Revenue of $7.75 billion - $8.25 billion; EPS 30-33 USD 2. Wall Street consensus expectation: revenue of $8.39 billion, EPS of $33.01, a significant quarter-over-quarter increase 3. Core Expectations Anchor • Enterprise-level AI-SSD revenue growth and progress on $42 billion long-term orders • Whether gross margin can remain high; NAND flash price prosperity • Next quarter's performance guidance is far more important than the current financial report; the market has already priced in high growth in advance, and it depends on whether the market can sustain it. Current situation: The maximum single-month drawdown in July was nearly 40%, which is a mid-level correction after a sharp rise; Recently, there has been an early rebound, with capital speculation and earnings reports exceeding expectations; US Treasury yields remain high, and valuation pressure on growth stocks persists. II. Three Major Scenario Simulations (Market Reaction After Financial Report) Scenario (1): Revenue and EPS both exceed expectations + next quarter guidance raised [Positive] • Condition: Revenue > 8.5 billion, EPS > 34, and next quarter revenue/gross margin guidance raised; Data center business continued to see triple-digit growth quarter-on-quarter. • Market Front: After-hours rally, with a chance to test the 1520-1580 resistance zone; Driving the storage sector ($PUMP Brother Shanhe is here to analyze this kind of altcoin scam
The platform token PUMP has real income support but faces continuous selling pressure due to a massive $125 million unlocking and halving of buybacks, causing great short-term uncertainty
Meme coins on the platform are extremely low-win-rate PVP gambles, with over 98% going to zero, only suitable for high-risk speculation and absolutely not worth holding mid-to-long term
Treat new Meme coins like lottery tickets; focus on PUMP's income and unlocking data—neither is suitable for heavy long-term investment, only for players with very high risk tolerance to speculate with small positions
A large batch of tokens will unlock on August 12; short-term bulls dominate but lack confidence: price rose nearly 9%, but funding rate is only 0.01%, indicating bulls are unwilling to pay a high premium to hold positions, showing weak chasing willingness.
Volume did not follow, raising doubts about the strength of the rise: open interest did not expand with the price increase, this rebound looks more like short covering rather than new money actively entering
Key level to watch is 0.0025: if volume breaks through, short-term bullish trend confirmed; if volume shrinks and price stalls or falls, beware of a bull trap
Short-term cautiously bullish but not advisable to chase highs; prioritize observing the battle around 0.0025 before making decisions.
The rebound is real, but sustainability depends on volume—if 0.0025 cannot be surpassed, everything is in vain
$BEAT #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Here's the conclusion first: SpaceX's earnings report has almost no flaws in terms of performance. But when 911.5 million shares unlock on August 6, the quality of the earnings might not matter at all; what matters is whether the market has enough money to absorb these shares.
Let's talk about the earnings first. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, and the AI business generated $2.561 billion in a single quarter—that's 3.5 times last year's same period. Operating loss narrowed from $970 million to $143 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 billion, up 191% year-over-year. Starlink's connectivity business alone is already profitable, with operating profit of $1.656 billion, up 79% year-over-year.
Honestly, after reading this report yesterday, my first reaction was that the company is moving faster than I expected. Although Starlink's monthly average ARPU dropped from $85 last year to $66, this is the cost of international expansion, and the doubling of the user base fully offsets the price decline. The AI unit is still losing money (a quarterly loss of $1.257 billion), but the loss narrowed by 49% quarter-over-quarter, indicating that economies of scale are taking effect.
At this point, if you only look at the earnings report, you'd think SPCX's current $125 stock price is seriously undervalued—after all, the IPO price was $135, and it once peaked at $201. The logic is clear: rapid earnings growth, narrowing losses, Starmind's collaboration with Nvidia opens up the imagination space for space AI, just buy it.
But I want to say something uncomfortable.
The day after tomorrow, August 6, 911.5 million restricted shares will unlock. These shares are held by employees and early investors, most of whom bought at single-digit prices or even lower. Currently, SPCX's public float is only about 5% of the total shares outstanding. Once these unlocked shares hit the market, the float will more than double.
Facebook in 2012 is the most classic cautionary tale. The IPO price was $38, but on the day the first 271 million shares unlocked, the price was hammered down to $19.88, halving the stock. There were subsequent batch unlocks in October and November, continuing the pressure. Was Facebook's fundamental poor at the time? No, it wasn't; the mobile monetization story just hadn't been fully proven yet.
SpaceX's current situation is somewhat similar: no one doubts the high growth in earnings, but with $18.4 billion in single-quarter capital expenditures, the AI business still burning cash, and the stock price having retreated nearly 40% from its peak—under this combination, do those early holders with near-zero cost have the incentive to take some profits at $125? The answer is almost certainly yes.
But Facebook's story has a second half—those who endured the lockup period later earned 40 times their investment. The lockup selling pressure is a one-time supply shock, not a deterioration of fundamentals. For those who truly believe in SpaceX's long-term value, the dip caused by the lockup might actually be a better entry point.
Yesterday, I watched SPCX drop another 3% after hours and felt tempted to add to my position, but I ultimately held back. My judgment is to wait for the trading volume on August 6—the lockup day. If the volume surges and the price drops to the $100–110 range but doesn't break down further, that will be the position I really want to act on. If the volume shrinks on the lockup day, it means major shareholders choose to continue holding, which would say more than any earnings data.
This is my current bias, but I leave myself a 30% margin of error. If the price falls below $100 within two trading days after the lockup without signs of stabilization, I will consider my judgment on the selling pressure too optimistic and will cut losses on this view.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ The market's "shock absorber" is about to fail
This is currently the strongest logic behind the rise in oil prices. Previously, oil prices did not skyrocket because there were buffering mechanisms such as the release of strategic reserves and inventory consumption holding them back. But now, the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983 (about 310 million barrels), and global commercial inventories are also continuously declining. This means the market's tolerance for a new round of supply shocks is very limited, and any slight disturbance will be directly reflected in prices.
Shipping routes remain under pressure
In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping security of the Red Sea and the Mandeb Strait is also under threat. The blockade actions by the Houthi forces have reduced the capacity of fully loaded oil tankers in the Red Sea by 22%, and alternative transport routes for oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia are also obstructed. The simultaneous pressure on these three critical energy chokepoints sharply increases the risk of supply disruptions. #On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion SanDisk will release its full-year and Q4 earnings after the market close on August 6. Currently, the market's core battle revolves around two main themes: the tight supply and demand of AI high-bandwidth memory HBM, and expectations for the company's self-developed HBF technology implementation, with bullish and bearish divergences continuing to widen.
On the industry side, global HBM capacity is locked in long-term orders by cloud giants like NVIDIA and Microsoft. Samsung and SK Hynix prioritize advanced production lines for high-margin HBM, squeezing general NAND flash capacity. Coupled with cautious expansion by major manufacturers, NAND spot prices continue to rise, and the industry shortage cycle is expected to last at least until 2027. SanDisk, leveraging enterprise-grade SSDs and its self-developed HBF caching solution, is deeply tied to the AI inference market, having signed a $42 billion long-term supply agreement, securing mid-to-long-term revenue. Last quarter, data center business revenue surged 645% year-over-year, with gross margin exceeding 78%, becoming the core support for performance.
However, there are clear bearish concerns in the market. The storage sector collectively pulled back in July, with SanDisk sharply retreating from its highs. The market worries about two major risks: first, the previous stock price gains may have priced in the benefits of price increases, leading to selling pressure once the earnings report is released; second, HBM capacity is concentrated in Korean manufacturers, and SanDisk's HBF commercialization progress is below expectations, which may weaken valuation logic.
Short-term market performance fully depends on earnings guidance: if full-year data center business forecasts are raised and HBF implementation exceeds expectations, the stock price may recover; otherwise, if customer long-term contract growth slows and sector sentiment weakens, the downtrend will continue. The mid-to-long-term storage shortage logic remains unchanged, but short-term capital competition intensifies, increasing volatility risk. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SPCX is the best entry point right after the US stock market closes!!
Yesterday's earnings report clearly exceeded market expectations, and after-hours it was once rapidly boosted by positive news. However, the price then surged and fell back, and market sentiment began to turn cautious.
The main reasons for the pullback are several:
First, AI-related capital investment continues to expand, and the market is starting to reassess the return cycle behind high investment, with institutional risk appetite declining;
Second, there is large-scale unlocking pressure after hours today, but currently the market lacks sufficient funds to support the downside, causing supply-demand imbalance and increased selling pressure;
Third, a large amount of funds had previously positioned ahead of earnings expectations, and after the positive news was realized, profit-taking was concentrated, forming short-term selling pressure.
At present, the earnings benefits have already been partially priced in by the market, with short-term focus on the strength of fund support. If after-hours selling pressure continues to increase, a further price pullback to test the key support at $110 cannot be ruled out.
$ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 SanDisk is releasing its earnings report tonight, but its stock price has dropped 47% in July.
This is quite interesting. The earnings expectations are indeed rising, with the market forecasting Q4 revenue of $8.39 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. However, the stock price has already fallen so much in advance, which indicates that everyone understands—good earnings are expected; the problem is if they are not good enough.
This is actually a rule Palantir just confirmed a few days ago: the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price. How much you earned in the past three months is not important; what matters is how much you say you can earn going forward.
SanDisk’s current situation is quite delicate. The company’s own Q4 guidance is revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, while the market expects $8.39 billion, which is even higher than the company’s upper guidance. What does this mean? It means that if the earnings report only meets the company’s own guidance but falls short of market expectations, it could actually be interpreted as negative news.
Another concern for the market is the cyclical curse of storage stocks. The storage chip industry has historically gone through cycles of boom and bust—shortages leading to price hikes, expansion, oversupply, and crashes. This script has played out for over a decade. SanDisk’s stock has risen 1600% since its IPO and surged over 400% this year alone, so it’s normal for profit-taking to occur.
But this time there is a variable that’s different from before—the question of whether AI-driven demand is structural. SanDisk itself says that data centers will replace the mobile market as the largest NAND segment for the first time, and it expects demand to exceed supply through the end of 2026. If this is true, then storage stocks should no longer be priced as cyclical stocks. The July plunge is essentially a bet on this issue; the market is asking: is this time really different?
Earnings numbers are of course important, but more critical is management’s outlook for the future. If guidance remains strong or is even raised, it means the storage market’s prosperity is not over, and the stock price is likely to stabilize. If guidance becomes conservative, the market will think the cycle is peaking, and the 47% drop might not be the bottom yet.
Let’s first see tonight’s earnings report and guidance before deciding the next steps. $SNDK $BICO $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Derivatives capital flow vs. spot demand: Who is leading this rebound?
The uniqueness of this $ADA rally lies in the derivatives capital inflow strengthening more consistently than spot demand.
Derivatives data:
· $ADA futures have shown positive capital inflow over the recent 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day periods
· Totaling approximately $41.8 million over 7 days
· Trading on Bybit and OKX is also active, indicating market demand is not concentrated on a single platform
Spot data:
· 24-hour trading volume increased by over 33%
· Open interest on multiple exchanges has risen—usually indicating new capital inflow rather than just turnover of existing positions
· The long-short account ratios on Binance and OKX are both above 1, with position structures slightly biased toward longs
📌 Interpretation:
The sustained positive capital inflow in the derivatives market suggests that institutions or professional traders are going long on ADA through the futures market rather than merely buying spot. This "futures-led" rally structure indicates, on one hand, a more professional nature of the capital, and on the other hand, implies that if positions start to be closed, the correction could be more severe.
The overall distribution of positions among top traders remains relatively balanced, indicating the market has not yet entered a FOMO phase—the rally may still have room to grow.💹$BTC #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Whales bought 240 million $ADA in five days: Who is buying frantically?
This is the most significant on-chain signal for ADA currently — large Cardano addresses increased their holdings by over 240 million ADA within five days. At $0.19 per ADA, this accumulation is worth about $46 million.
More macro whale data:
· Whales holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have cumulatively increased their holdings by 454.7 million ADA in the past two months
· Total holdings reached 25.6 billion ADA, a new high since 2023
· Wallets holding over ten million ADA control 67.5% of the circulating supply, with concentration continuing to rise
· Whale holdings steadily rose to 5.69 billion ADA, indicating ongoing accumulation rather than isolated purchases
· In the past seven days, large holders have cumulatively increased by over 30 million ADA
📌 Important caveat:
Ali Martinez cited Santiment data showing increased balances in large address groups. However, this does not reveal whether these tokens were bought on the open market, withdrawn from exchanges, or merely transferred between related wallets. Custodial transfers and exchange portfolio reorganizations can also change address balances without creating new demand.
However, combined with the following facts:
1. Price rose about 20% in sync
2. Derivatives funds have continued positive inflows (about $41.8 million over 7 days)
3. Exchange contract trading volume has expanded
The likelihood of real purchases is high. If the accumulation comes from purchases then moved into long-term storage, the $ADA available for sale will decrease, tightening supply further.📦$BTC #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
An earnings report that exceeded expectations but ultimately did not lead to a price increase.
This precisely indicates that the market's trading focus has shifted.
SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public, with core data such as revenue, AI business growth, and narrowed losses all beating market expectations. However, the stock price did not continue its strength after hours and instead declined. This shows that capital attention is no longer solely on the earnings themselves.
What truly causes market hesitation are the two upcoming variables.
One is AI investment. Although the AI business performed impressively, the company also stated it will maintain high capital expenditures in the future, which will inevitably impact short-term profit margins. Long-term investors see growth potential, but short-term funds see cost pressure.
The other, and more immediate pressure, is the unlocking of approximately 911.5 million shares on August 6. Unlocking does not necessarily mean selling, but it implies a significant increase in potential supply. The market often prices in this risk in advance, so even with an earnings beat, it is difficult to immediately push the stock price higher.
From a trading perspective, I believe the market is no longer trading the earnings report but trading expectations.
If the actual selling pressure after unlocking is not as severe as the market fears, a "bad news priced in" recovery may occur; but if early shareholders concentrate on cashing out, short-term volatility is likely to continue increasing.
Earnings determine long-term value, while capital flow determines short-term price.
At least for SpaceX now, the latter is the market's main focus in the coming days. @OKX星球 The S&P 500 has risen to a historic high! When will $BTC break through?
Last night, the US stock market was indeed very strong.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
The S&P 500 rose 1.8%, closing at 7736.52 points, surpassing 7700 points for the first time in history; the Dow rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq rose 2.6%, with all three major indexes strengthening together.
But this rise should have reasons.
On one hand, oil prices have fallen, temporarily easing market concerns about inflation; on the other hand, earnings reports continue to be strong. According to FactSet statistics, among the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, overall earnings per share have increased by about 47% year-over-year.
Simply put, the market's current thinking is that even though interest rates are high, as long as companies can still make money, stocks are still worth buying.
This is also why the Nasdaq has risen the most. AI, chips, and large tech stocks remain the sectors where capital is most willing to stay. The Dow also hit a new high, indicating this rally is not solely driven by a few tech stocks, but to call it a full bull market, I think it's still a bit early.
Because US Treasury yields remain high, and there are upcoming employment and service sector data. If the data is too strong, expectations for rate hikes will return; if the data is too weak, the market will worry about economic slowdown. At this point, even a slightly unfavorable number could trigger profit-taking.
For the crypto space, last night's market is even more worth pondering.
The S&P has already broken through its historic high, but BTC is still hovering around $64,000, not even touching the $65,400 resistance. ETH and SOL have not shown obvious follow-through either.
This indicates that capital currently trusts the profitability of the US stock market more than the resilience of the crypto market. Money has not fully flowed into risk assets; it has first gone to the places with the strongest earnings support.
So the S&P breaking 7700 is certainly positive, but don't rush to directly translate that into "BTC will immediately catch up."
First, see if the S&P can hold above 7700, then see if BTC can break through $65,400. If the US stock market continues to hit new highs but BTC remains stagnant, it’s not a buildup of strength but rather that capital simply hasn't chosen the crypto space.
Conversely, if BTC breaks above $65,400 with volume, this lag could turn into a catch-up rally.
Now that the US stock market has delivered, it's BTC's turn to prove itself.#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
Overnight, the US stock market surged across the board. The S&P 500 broke through the 7700-point milestone in one go, closing at 7736.52 points, up 1.79% for the day, officially setting a new historical closing high; the Dow Jones also surpassed 54,000 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq surged 2.59% in a single day. The deep correction pit formed in July was fully recovered within just four trading days, with market sentiment reversing much faster than expected.
First, the core closing data:
- S&P 500: up 136.02 points, +1.79%, closed at 7736.52 points, first time ever above 7700 points
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: up 907.47 points, +1.71%, closed at 54085.88 points, first time breaking 54,000 points
- Nasdaq Composite Index: up 671.10 points, +2.59%, closed at 26584.99 points
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: surged 6.55% in one day, rebounding for the fourth consecutive trading day; the index had a cumulative drawdown of over 20% in July, with a maximum drawdown near 29%, currently in an oversold recovery phase
This rally is not just pure sentiment speculation; it is the result of three positive factors resonating together:
First, geopolitical sentiment has significantly eased, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed inflation expectations.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the US and Iran are expected to reach an agreement within 48 hours on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran also confirmed positive progress in negotiations with Oman on technical issues related to the shipping route. As a result, international oil prices plunged in a single day, with WTI crude closing down 5.7% and Brent crude down 5.3%, falling below the $80 mark. The oil price plunge directly lowered inflation expectations, and the market's pricing for a Fed rate hike in September quickly retreated. The two-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.188%, a new low since July 20, easing valuation pressure on risk assets simultaneously.
Second, the overall earnings season performance is strong, supporting fundamentals.
According to the latest FactSet statistics, over 60% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q2 earnings, with 86% of companies beating market EPS expectations. This ratio is higher than the five-year average of 78% and marks the highest beat rate since Q2 2021.
At the individual stock level, catalysts are clear: Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to over $8.15 billion, with after-hours shares rising nearly 15%; industrial giant Caterpillar posted quarterly revenue exceeding $20 billion for the first time, reaching $20.5 billion, up 24% year-over-year, with strong orders across its three main business segments, becoming a core contributor to the Dow's rise.
Third, the semiconductor sector rebounded violently, driving growth stock sentiment recovery.
Storage and chips surged across the board, with SanDisk and Intel up over 10%, Micron and AMD up over 7%. On one hand, the HBF industry standard has been implemented, opening long-term growth potential for AI storage; on the other hand, after a deep sector correction in July, funds have concentrated on replenishing positions driven by earnings improvements and rising risk appetite, forming a double boost of oversold recovery plus fundamental catalysts.
Finally, some practical points:
The core driver of this rally is the easing of rate hike expectations brought by the drop in oil prices, combined with sentiment recovery after overselling, rather than a fundamental leap in scale. Middle East negotiations have historically been volatile; if subsequent news encounters setbacks, oil prices could rebound at any time, and market sentiment would quickly switch. Moreover, sector divergence is very obvious, with heavyweights and tech leading gains, while most small and mid-cap stocks have limited gains. Mistiming the rhythm can easily result in making index gains without profit.
For us, the most direct effect of the US stock market hitting new highs is stabilizing global risk appetite, at least preventing a scenario where US stocks drag down the entire market, but the transmission to other assets is limited, mostly providing a sentiment floor.
Do you think this new high marks the start of a new rally, or is it a rebound in a downtrend?
This personal analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
$MU SanDisk SNDK｜Complete Strategy to Avoid Earnings Report Surge and Pullback
Extremely prone to a double whammy of long and short positions
Why is a surge and pullback very likely tonight?
1. The market has already priced in the good news: The previous AI storage price hikes and long-term supply agreements have already been speculated on by capital, and now market expectations are maxed out; even if earnings and gross margin meet targets, if the Q4 guidance falls short of the most optimistic standards, it’s easy to see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
2. Storage chips belong to a strong cyclical category; capital fears subsequent flash memory overproduction, NAND spot price pressure, and the difficulty of sustaining ultra-high gross margins, leading to profit-taking after the surge.
3. The overall sentiment in the US AI sector is weak; after AMD and SPCX earnings last night, there was a post-market plunge, cooling risk appetite for tech stocks, which easily drags the storage sector down.
4. The first 15 minutes after market close is a high-frequency trading period for institutions; short-term surges are often programmatic traps, followed by selling pressure realization.
Practical risk control plan to prevent losses from surge and pullback
1. Before the earnings report
1. Lower total position size, avoid heavy bets on earnings; volatility on earnings night is huge, SanDisk single-session swings can reach 10%-18%.
2. Existing positions: reduce holdings in batches by 30%-50% in advance to lock in some profits, keep the remaining base position for news speculation.
2. After the earnings release, respond to three types of market conditions
1. Earnings beat expectations, rapid post-market surge
Do not chase the rally; after the surge, observe volume for 5-15 minutes. If the surge is on high volume but price stalls and gains weaken, reduce more than half of the position immediately to guard against short-term collective profit-taking causing a pullback.
Focus on Q4 revenue guidance, NAND flash pricing expectations, and AI server storage order outlook; a strong earnings report body is less damaging than conservative forward guidance.
2. Earnings meet market consensus
This is a positive news realization; surge and pullback is most likely, sell in batches on rebounds.
3. Earnings miss expectations, open lower and decline
Do not rush to bottom-fish at low levels; first observe a 30-minute stabilization. Once sentiment worsens in storage cyclical stocks, the decline tends to be persistent.
3. Strict trading discipline
1. Reject market orders in the first 15 minutes after earnings release; the spread is huge and poor execution prices are likely;
2. Set stop losses; once the price surges then falls below key support levels, exit decisively;
3. Tonight, closely monitor SPCX lock-up sentiment, optical module ban news, and commodity sentiment driven by the Middle East Hormuz Strait agreement; external environment will transmit to the semiconductor sector.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK CoinCat $BTC $ETH ##$Live Trader Diary:BTC oscillates upward, focus on range breakout
$BTC
[Market Overview]
Latest price 64,181 USDT, up 0.94% in the past 24 hours, range 63,450—64,543 USDT, trading volume 371 million USDT.
[Structural Analysis]
Short-term structure favors bulls, but beware of the risk of stagnation at high levels.
[Key Levels]
Watch the intraday high near 64,543 on the upside; a valid breakout may open further upward space. On the downside, support is near the intraday low of 63,450; a break below may trigger a pullback. The current price is in the middle of the range, and direction choice requires breakout confirmation.
[Further Observation]
• If support near 63,450 USDT holds, then observe whether the structure can recover.
• If resistance near 64,543 USDT is broken, then confirm whether upward momentum continues.
For market review only, not investment advice.#BlackRock launches two funds exclusively for stablecoin reserves
$CORE
Today, when I was checking on-chain data, I saw smart money on the net inflow leaderboard in the meme sector, surprisingly holding onto CATE, a player that dropped 39.9% in a single day. Then I saw Michael Burry extending his Nvidia short position all the way to 2027.
Putting these two things together, my first reaction is: this is not a coincidence, but two mirror images of the same risk appetite contracting.
On one side, Ansem is saying the bottom signs are price resilience against negative news; on the other, the big traditional finance short seller is increasing his short on tech stocks. It gives me the feeling that crypto-native players and traditional capital have started to diverge in their definitions of "risk assets."
Looking again at smart money’s moves in meme tokens, single trades are only around $30,000, which frankly is just testing the waters, not building positions. Losing 40% without flinching shows their attitude toward high-volatility assets is: you can play, but don’t take it seriously.
For BTC, ETH, SOL, and CORE, here’s a quick analysis: If BTC can continue to make higher highs and higher lows in the $58,000 to $60,000 range, the market’s bottom structure is still alive; ETH needs to catch up and recover, or else BTC’s resilience will be fighting alone; SOL’s elasticity is good, but the key is whether it can sustain volume growth. As for CORE, currently at 0.02 with shrinking volume and a slow decline, if the market doesn’t warm up, it will likely continue to decline rather than reverse.
There are only two conditions to watch: First, if BTC can break above $62,000 with volume, it validates Ansem’s claim of resilience, meaning risk appetite is truly recovering, and oversold small coins like CORE have a basis to follow the rally; second, if in the next two days smart money’s inflow in the meme sector expands from $30,000 to $300,000, it means capital is increasing trial and error, sentiment is warming up; otherwise, it’s just a zero-sum game.
A risk reminder: Michael Burry’s short extension indicates macro funds remain bearish on tech stocks and the Nasdaq. If the crypto market follows the US stock market’s weakness, any "bottom signals" could be directly invalidated by liquidity contraction.After being proven wrong by 29%, he didn’t admit defeat, he just changed the date
Michael Burry submitted a new position change. After reading it, there’s only one feeling: he didn’t give up, he just pushed the date back.
First, look at what he let go. The long position in Microsoft was sold, the short position in Oracle was closed, and the short position in Palantir expiring in January 2026 was also closed.
Now look at what he kept. The short position in Nvidia was extended to June 2027. The short position in the Nasdaq 100 ETF was extended to February 2027. He still holds short positions in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ETF, Micron, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials.
Putting these two sets of positions together tells a story. The ones closed were all near-term expirations, while the ones kept were all pushed back more than a year.
And last night’s market looked like this. Palantir surged 29.45% in a single day, breaking above the 200-day moving average in one go. Caterpillar rose over 5% to a record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.55%, with all 30 components up; SanDisk and Intel rose over 10%, and Micron’s market cap returned to the trillion level. The tech giants collectively rose nearly 10% over the past four days.
Almost every name he shorted hit new highs or surged yesterday.
A few days ago, he said it’s like 1987 now, that declining volatility would trigger a self-reinforcing cycle of automatic leverage. Now that he’s been proven wrong, his choice wasn’t to turn around but to push the expiration dates back by a year and a half. This move sends a clearer message than any words: he believes the bubble is still there, just didn’t expect it to last this long.
Anyone can shout “top,” but putting real money on 2027 is a real statement. If you want to understand what someone is thinking, don’t listen to what they say—look at which dates they’re putting their money on.
On the same day, there was another set of numbers. Liang Wenfeng’s Magic Square Quantitative’s nine July products all dropped over 20%, with a maximum drawdown of 22.15%, and year-to-date returns turned from positive to negative. Leading firms like Ming Shi, Ping Fang He, Jiu Kun, and Ming Qun also experienced drawdowns. The industry explanation is that tech growth stocks and high-momentum strategies are too crowded; when styles reverse, similar concentrated positions turn around, and factors that used to make money instantly become sources of losses.
On one side, the index hits new highs every day; on the other, momentum-based quant funds collectively crash. These two things happening simultaneously only prove one point: the current rise is not broad-based, but driven by a very small number of names pulling the index up.
What does this have to do with us? BTC is still hovering around 63,000 today, while global risk appetite is clearly rising, but crypto hasn’t gotten a share. If Burry is right, when the bubble really bursts, the liquidity that gets pulled first is likely from crypto. If Hayes’ theory holds, the super money printing after the crash is another story. Short term is pressure, long term is a variable—don’t mix these two.
So the question is: are you standing with the current new highs, or with the person who’s holding short positions through 2027?SpaceX 2026 Q2 Earnings Core Insights by Migo: This first post-IPO earnings report shows revenue of $7.8 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%, far exceeding market expectations, yet the stock price fell 8-9% in after-hours trading.
Of the company's $18.4 billion capital expenditure in a single quarter, $15.8 billion was invested in AI, used to purchase GPUs for computing power leasing. The focus has shifted from the public perception of a space rocket company to a model similar to Oracle's computing power rental. Cash reserves rose from $24.7 billion to $93.5 billion, and investments in Starlink and other aerospace businesses were far less than market expectations.
The stock price pressure mainly stems from two reasons: one is the upcoming unlocking of nearly 100 billion shares, and the other is the significant capital tilt toward AI, which conflicts with many investors' original expectations of deepening aerospace development. Going forward, SpaceX will likely continue to increase computing power investments, becoming the world's largest GPU purchaser. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Taking a look at SpaceX's first earnings report after going public, there really aren't many flaws to point out.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
Quarterly revenue reached $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase; operating loss narrowed from $970 million to $143 million. Starlink users have already reached 12 million, with connection service revenue growing 66%.
Revenue is growing fast, and losses are narrowing. Those who previously worried that SpaceX went public just to raise money have been proven wrong by this earnings report.
But if I had to choose between "performance" and "lock-up expiration" right now, I would put 70% of my attention on the lock-up.
Because the earnings report answers whether SpaceX is worth buying, while the lock-up tests whether the market can suddenly absorb so many shares.
On August 6, about 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, accounting for about 12% of the total shares outstanding. This number is even larger than the current market float of about 640 million shares. Even if only a small portion is sold, it won't be easy for the short-term price.
Of course, lock-up expiration doesn't mean shareholders will definitely sell. But employees and early investors have held shares for many years, and their costs are generally lower than the post-IPO price. Now that they finally have the chance to convert paper wealth into real cash, some will improve their lives, some will diversify their holdings, which is normal. You can't expect everyone to keep dreaming with the market.
Last night's price action already showed some of this flavor. SpaceX rose nearly 10% during regular trading hours, closing near $125, but still didn't return to the $135 IPO price; after the earnings release, the after-hours gains were largely erased.
This shows that capital acknowledges the earnings report but is not willing to ignore the pressure from the lock-up expiration.
As for the Starmind space AI project in cooperation with NVIDIA, the story is indeed big, even big enough to easily get people excited.
The problem is, a space data center isn't just about putting NVIDIA GPUs into satellites. Launching, power supply, cooling, radiation protection, and data transmission—all require continued spending. When orders will come, how much customers are willing to pay, and what gross margins can be achieved are still unknown.
So, using Starmind to hedge the lock-up in the short term, I think it's a bit premature.
Next, I will only watch one signal: after the lock-up expiration releases a huge volume, can the stock price hold above that day's low?
If after the selling pressure, the stock price can climb back to $135 within two or three days, it means the market has really absorbed the new shares. At that time, joining in might be a bit more expensive, but the odds will be more comfortable.
If volume surges but the rebound gets weaker each time, then just wait. Good companies can wait, good prices can wait, there's no need to catch the first wave of shares from early investors.
This earnings report proves SpaceX's business is solid, but how the short-term stock price moves probably isn't up to Musk.
It depends on how many people finally want to convert their shares into cash tomorrow. What do you think about the subsequent trend?
$SPCX Here are some of my insights on the upcoming cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH), storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX), and Musk-related concepts (SPCX, TSLA):
1. Cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH):
I had been bearish for a while, but now I'm not so bearish anymore. The main reasons are:
1) MicroStrategy updated its trades on August 3rd, selling over 1,300 bitcoins, but the market impact was minimal; the market did not drop accordingly. This is likely because the market had already priced in this expectation. The selling was just the realization of a negative expectation, so the actual impact is no longer negative.
2) ETF data has actually been rising these past few days. Institutions bought $211.5M yesterday and $170.1M the day before. These are real net inflows of cash, which have absorbed a significant portion of the negative sentiment.
Overall, BTC market liquidity is still insufficient. Recently, the US stock market has been extremely volatile, but BTC has only followed slightly, neither falling nor rising much. It has been stuck at the 4-hour downtrend line. A few days ago, I thought it might plunge sharply, but now I no longer hold any short positions.
2. Storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX):
1) SanDisk's Beijing event will release earnings at 4:30 AM, and recently SanDisk has been very strong alongside the US stock market, with daily gains of at least 10%. If earnings beat expectations, there could be another surge.
2) The entire storage sector has been following the US stock market, with the S&P hitting new highs. This really proves the saying: never short the US stock market. In contrast, the A-share market is still bottoming and rebounding.
3) I have always thought storage wouldn't rise so quickly; I personally expect a second dip, so I've mainly been bearish and shorting recently, though I stopped losses on two trades last night.
3. Musk-related concepts (SPCX, TSLA):
1) I posted yesterday that SPCX would have big volatility these days. There should be significant opportunities here, just focus on one earnings release and one unlocking event.
2) Technically, the rebound strength here is very strong. I personally don't think even if there is a sell-off after unlocking, it will break the recent bottom.
3) No matter how fierce the sell-off after these events, once fully realized, it should be a bullish market opportunity. The smart money has surely already positioned.
I closed my long positions last night. I still have a short position ready to hold until the US market opens tonight, then I'll decide on stop loss and take profit.
The above are just my personal thoughts and insights on trading, not investment advice. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 $BTC $SPCX $SNDK id="c8a7pm"
After AMD's latest earnings report, the market's focus has shifted from "whether AI chips can sell" to "whether AI revenue can truly become a second growth curve."
In Q2, AMD's revenue was $7.69 billion, up 32% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter. Among this, data center business revenue was $3.2 billion, up 14% year-over-year, accounting for about 41.6% of total revenue, continuing to be the largest source of income.
But looking closely at the growth structure, one can see why the market has divergent views.
Although the data center business hit a new high, its growth rate is clearly lower than the overall revenue growth. Gaming business revenue was $1.18 billion, up 73% year-over-year; embedded business revenue was $861 million, up 9% year-over-year. The growth driven by AI accelerators still needs further validation through subsequent orders.
AMD's biggest current opportunity comes from the MI series GPUs.
The company stated that the MI300 series sales performance is strong and expects AI data center business to maintain high-speed growth in the coming years. However, compared to NVIDIA, there is still an ecosystem gap. The CUDA software ecosystem, number of developers, and large-scale deployment experience remain the biggest barriers AMD faces in catching up.
The capital market has already priced in expectations in advance.
AMD's stock price showed significant volatility after the earnings report, rising in after-hours trading before falling back. The reason is not poor performance but that the market had already priced in very high AI growth expectations.
Valuation further illustrates the issue.
Based on the latest market cap of about $270 billion, AMD's revenue over the past 12 months is about $30.4 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of about 8.9x. Compared to traditional semiconductor companies, this valuation includes a large amount of AI growth expectations.
For the crypto market, the significance of AMD's earnings lies in whether the AI infrastructure cycle will continue.
Over the past year, AI capital expenditure has driven up GPUs, data centers, power, and semiconductor supply chains, while also supporting liquidity in risk assets. If AI companies start to reduce capital investment, it will affect not only tech stocks but potentially the valuation of the entire high-risk asset class.
Currently, the market needs to focus on three sets of data:
First, whether AMD's data center revenue growth can again exceed overall revenue growth;
Second, whether orders for the MI series GPUs continue to expand;
Third, whether AI capital expenditures from major clients like Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI continue to increase.
The AI rally is not over yet, but the market has moved from "believing the story" to "verifying the revenue."
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #On the Eve of SanDisk's Earnings Report, HBF and Storage Shortage Spark Heated Discussion
🔥On the night before SanDisk's earnings report, the HBF standard is established—the "new trump card" in the storage industry has arrived
Brothers, something big has happened again in the storage sector.
Just before SanDisk's Q2 earnings release, the company and SK Hynix jointly unveiled the first industry standard specification for HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) at the FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit. This is not a conceptual PPT, but a solid technical standard officially released by OCP (Open Compute Project).
At the same time, Samsung just announced: the storage shortage will continue until 2027, and may even drag into 2028.
The new technology standard plus industry-wide shortage combined make the upcoming SanDisk earnings report one of the most watched events in the market.
What exactly is HBF? Simply put, it’s the "budget-friendly HBM"
Understanding HBF means understanding why the storage sector has been so crazy this year.
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the standard for AI training but is expensive, has small capacity, and is in short supply. SSDs are cheap and have large capacity but are slow and can’t keep up with GPU speeds.
HBF is the new species caught in the middle—using NAND flash as the base (cheap + large capacity), but stacking methods and interface protocols align with HBM (high bandwidth). According to the newly released specification, HBF supports up to 512GB capacity, bandwidth ranges from 0.4TB/s to 3.0TB/s, uses 8 or 16 layers of NAND stacking, and connects to GPU/CPU via the UCIe standard.
In plain language: during AI inference, model parameters can reside in HBF, which is much cheaper than HBM and much faster than SSD. SanDisk aims to release samples in the second half of 2026 and launch the first batch of AI inference devices in early 2027.
If HBF really works, SanDisk will no longer be an ordinary NAND manufacturer; it will be pioneering a whole new storage tier. This is equivalent to creating a new market worth hundreds of billions between DRAM and SSD.
Storage shortage is not hype; it’s a structural supply shortfall
Now, the industry background.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk—the major manufacturers—have collectively started production controls since the end of 2025. Micron and SanDisk cut NAND output by about 15%, Samsung reduced wafer starts at its Xi’an plant by over 10%.
But demand simply won’t stop. AI data centers consume storage exponentially—training requires HBM, inference requires large-capacity SSDs, and data lakes need HDDs. Enterprise SSD prices rose over 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, and SanDisk’s data center revenue surged 76% year-over-year.
More critically, wafer fab capacity is limited. Production lines prioritize HBM, squeezing NAND capacity. This "zero-sum game" locks NAND supply ceilings and keeps prices high.
Samsung has clearly stated: all HBM capacity in 2026 is locked by customers, with expected sales growth over 3x. SK Hynix’s DRAM inventory is still declining, NAND inventory weeks nearly match DRAM, indicating tight supply all year.
Under this supply-demand structure, storage price increases are not short-term spikes but a super cycle lasting at least until 2027.
What to watch in SanDisk’s earnings? Three key numbers
SanDisk’s earnings report (expected August 5/6) is the market’s litmus test for all this.
First, can ASP (average selling price) continue to rise? Last quarter, SanDisk’s per-GB price rose about 30% quarter-over-quarter, directly pushing gross margin to 51%. If ASP rises again this quarter, it means the shortage logic is strengthening.
Second, the proportion of data center revenue. Last quarter, data center revenue was $440 million, up 64% quarter-over-quarter and 76% year-over-year. This is the core support for SanDisk’s valuation. The more AI customers rely on SanDisk’s enterprise SSDs, the stronger its pricing power.
Third, HBF progress and capital expenditure guidance. Will management provide a more specific mass production timeline for HBF during the call? Will 2026 capex increase due to expansion? These determine whether the market is willing to give SanDisk a "new technology premium."
Current market expectations for Q4 (SanDisk’s fiscal Q4) are adjusted EPS of $30–33 and revenue of $7.75–8.25 billion. If it beats expectations, the stock may continue to soar; if it misses, considering the stock has already fallen significantly from the $2354 high, volatility will be large.
Mapping to crypto and AI sectors
What’s the connection between the storage super cycle and crypto?
Direct connection: compute power supply chain. AI compute expansion requires storage support; rising storage prices mean higher costs for AI data centers. This pressures cloud providers to use compute more efficiently and may accelerate demand for decentralized compute/storage.
Indirect connection: narrative mapping. SanDisk’s HBF essentially tells a story of "new technology opening new markets." Similar narratives in crypto are DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure), AI+Crypto. But the difference is SanDisk has real production capacity, customer orders, and pricing power, while many crypto projects are still at the PPT stage. The storage industry’s performance realization is effectively pricing all "AI infrastructure" narratives—those with results enjoy premiums, those without get disproven.
In summary
HBF standard establishment + ongoing storage shortage place SanDisk at a critical juncture shifting from a "cyclical stock" to a "growth stock." The earnings report is a short-term catalyst; HBF is the mid-to-long-term growth story. If AI inference demand truly explodes as expected, HBF could replicate HBM’s legendary rise; if progress falls short, current high valuations will face pressure.
My view: the logic of the storage super cycle remains intact, but the stock has already risen a lot. I don’t recommend heavy positions betting on direction before earnings; wait for data to land before deciding to chase or exit. In the mid-to-long term, HBF as a new technology variable is worth continuous tracking.
All above is personal opinion and not investment advice. Do you think HBF can replicate HBM’s explosive growth legend? Let’s discuss in the comments.The most dangerous thing for ETH now is not a fall.
But everyone is waiting for it to rise.
Recently, when I read the comments section, I can see a sentence almost every day:
After BTC's rise, it's time for ETH.
That sounds reasonable.
But there's a problem with the deal.
The logic that everyone knows is often the hardest to make money.
BTC has been supported by ETF funds during this period, and the story of institutional allocation has not stopped.
What about ETH?
The market has been talking about ETFs, RWAs, stablecoins, and on-chain ecosystems.
These stories are true.
The problem is, these stories have been told for a long time.
If an asset really wants to start a major upswing, the most important thing is not whether the story is good enough.
It's about whether there's new money willing to continue raising prices.
I've been looking at the ETH ETF data recently.
There has been no panic withdrawal of funds, and some products have maintained net inflows in recent weeks.
But it just makes me more cautious.
Because the inflow of ETFs represents allocation demand, it does not mean that the short-term price will continue to rise. Many studies have found that ETF flows are more about confirming trends than creating them.
What concept?
The money is slowly coming in.
But the price did not come out of the market that made all the bears surrender.
At times like this, I won't rush to chase.
Because the real danger is not a 5% drop in ETH.
It's that everyone thinks:
"It's going to make up for it sooner or later."
One of the most likely ideas to lose money in trading is:
The direction is right, and time must also be on your side.
But the market never goes up just because everyone thinks it should go up.
If BTC continues to move sideways and ETH is unable to move independently, then the first to collapse is not the trend.
It's patience.
A lot of people will start to doubt.
They will start to reduce their stock.
It will start cashing.
So I'm not going to heavily pursue ETH now.
It's not because I'm short on ETH. #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 $ETH
Will ETH become a “low-inflation asset” in the future or sacrifice decentralization?
The emergence of EIP-8363 essentially reflects the core conflict in Ethereum’s long-term development: the trade-off between store-of-value properties and network security incentives.
From a positive perspective, if this proposal is implemented in the future, ETH’s supply model may further trend toward “scarcity.” The market has been focused on inflation changes after ETH’s transition from PoW to PoS, while EIP-8363 attempts to reduce new issuance pressure by adjusting the validator reward mechanism as the staking scale continues to expand. When a large amount of ETH is staked, even approaching 50% of the total supply, consensus rewards are offset, meaning ETH could further strengthen its “digital commodity” attribute. For long-term holders, this could enhance ETH’s value narrative and boost market confidence in ETH’s dilution resistance.
However, the market controversy is also very clear. One of Ethereum’s biggest advantages is openness and decentralization, but declining validator rewards may cause some small and medium nodes to exit, further driving staking centralization. Currently, ETH staking already faces the issue of large staking service providers holding a high proportion. If rewards continue to decrease, the operational cost pressure on small validators will increase, possibly leading more people to entrust their ETH to large institutions for custody, which conflicts with the goal of decentralization.
From a trader’s perspective, EIP-8363 is more of a sentiment-driven event in the short term rather than a fundamental change that immediately impacts price. The market may react in two ways: first, funds may interpret it as an “upgrade to ETH deflation,” boosting long-term value expectations; second, some investors may worry about declining staking yields, triggering short-term selling pressure.
For the ETH market, the real trend drivers remain several core factors: ETF capital inflows, the Federal Reserve’s liquidity environment, on-chain activity, and Layer 2 ecosystem growth. If EIP-8363 passes, it will strengthen the narrative of ETH as a “supra-sovereign asset,” but the Ethereum community needs to find a new balance between scarcity, security, and decentralization.
At present, this looks more like a route choice for Ethereum’s next decade rather than a simple parameter adjustment. For ETH investors, short-term focus should be on market sentiment fluctuations, while long-term observation is needed to see if this proposal will change ETH’s economic model. 📈 "Daytime Observation"｜2026.08.05 (Wednesday)
Today Asia-Pacific is very strong.
Nikkei up 3.66%, South Korea up 3.76%, Taiwan up 2.88%, Hang Seng Index in the green. A-shares all up, STAR Market 50 surged 4.78% leading the market.
Most notable signal: The US is considering restricting Chinese data centers, optical module sector opened lower under pressure but core stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang turned positive after opening low. The market has digested this negative news.
💡 Uncle's observation: The index is strong, and the structure is also strong. The fact that the expected declines did not happen indicates sentiment is stronger than imagined. $SOL shows a short-term pattern completely opposite to BTC and ETH. Not only did it not follow the rally, but it has specifically been "hunting" longs in the past few hours, making it the weakest among the three major coins.
1. 24-hour overview: Bears slightly dominate, but the gap is small
Total liquidations in 24 hours reached $2.37 million, with shorts ($1.3968 million) slightly exceeding longs ($974,700), at a ratio of about 6:4. Overall, bears had a slight edge throughout the day, but it was far less extreme than BTC's 8:2 ratio, indicating SOL was in a state of oscillation or mild decline all day, with both bulls and bears suffering losses.
2. Time pattern: Dramatic shift in the past 4 hours, longs targeted for liquidation
This is the most abnormal aspect of SOL:
· In the last 4 hours, total liquidations were $179,000, with long liquidations reaching $135,900, more than three times the shorts ($43,100)!
· Compared to BTC and ETH, where shorts were liquidated (short squeeze and rally) in the past 4 hours, SOL instead declined or stagnated against the trend, causing leveraged funds chasing longs in SOL to be selectively liquidated. This clearly shows SOL did not keep pace with this crypto market rebound.
3. Latest 1 hour: Longs are still "taking hits"
In the last hour, total liquidations were $25,500, with longs accounting for 95% ($24,400), and shorts almost negligible ($1,051). This means SOL is still under selling pressure at this moment, with short-term longs entering positions only to be trapped, reflecting very pessimistic market sentiment.
Conclusion and strategic differences (key!):
· SOL is severely weaker than the broader market in the short term: BTC and ETH are experiencing short squeezes, while SOL is liquidating longs. Either the main players are using BTC's rise as cover to offload SOL, or there are undisclosed negative factors or whale sell pressure on SOL.
· Strategy recommendation: Firmly avoid going long on SOL; it is not a catch-up target now but a hotspot for capital outflow. If you hold long positions in BTC or ETH, do not use SOL for hedging or averaging down. If BTC pulls back later, SOL's decline will very likely exceed ETH's because its long leverage (liquidated heavily in the past 4 hours) is very fragile. If you want to bet on a rebound, prioritize BTC; if you want to short hedge, SOL is currently a better choice than ETH.📉#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 [Big Short Burry: US Stocks Near Major Top, Possible 1987 Crash-Style Plunge] According to Jinse Finance, on August 5, as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hit new highs, Michael Burry, the legendary hedge fund manager and the real-life inspiration for the movie "The Big Short," maintained his bearish stance and warned that this rally could ultimately end in a crash similar to the 1987 stock market crash.
Known as the "Short God," Burry posted that the new highs in the S&P 500 might attract fresh capital into the market, but he still believes US stocks may be approaching a major top, with the possibility of a 1987-style crash plunge.
Skeptical of the AI hype, Burry thinks the demand for AI infrastructure is being driven by potentially unsustainable financing arrangements. The market rally is forming a self-reinforcing loop, where declining volatility encourages systematic investors to increase exposure, "the market rising amid falling volatility will force volatility-targeting funds to leverage up and bring in leveraged capital from other momentum strategies."
Burry stated he will continue to hold short positions in iShares Semiconductor ETF, Micron, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials, remaining confident in the long-term outlook of these positions. However, he added that he will cut losses and exit if the trade direction clearly turns against him. Except for the short position in Nvidia, all other positions are currently profitable.
Most comprehensive 7x24 crypto news 📌 Italy's largest bank cuts Bitcoin ETF by 94%, goes all-in staking ETH!
The details are different from what you think 👇
🔻 IBIT common shares cut by 93.7%, almost fully liquidated
🔻 Added put options for hedging
🔺 Staked ETH ETF holdings tripled
🔻 Solana staking ETF almost fully liquidated
It's not "abandoning BTC," it's institutions doing the math:
BTC not rising means negative returns, no interest advantage compared to US Treasuries.
Staking ETH generates on-chain income, producing cash flow even in sideways markets.
Banks and asset managers prefer "interest-bearing assets."
⚠️ Three details not to overlook:
1️⃣ Still hold a large amount of ARKB, not fully exiting the BTC track
2️⃣ One institution's portfolio adjustment ≠ global trend
3️⃣ Staking also carries network and withdrawal risks
📊 Practical advice:
ETH has short-term sentiment support, but the big picture follows US Treasuries, so don't go all-in.
In the future, only assets with real yields will catch institutional attention; pure speculative coins will continue to be neglected.
What do you think? See you in the comments 👇
#ETH #BTC #InstitutionalRebalancing #StakingYield
$ETH $BTC How crazy of a bull market does Dogecoin need to hit $1?
Let's do some math first. Dogecoin's current price is far from $1, and its market cap would need to reach the hundreds of billions of dollars level. What does that mean? It's basically like creating another Ethereum or half the size of Bitcoin. So don't just shout "To the Moon," we need to see how much fuel this rocket needs.
First, Elon Musk really has to become the "Dogecoin CEO."
Before, one of Musk's tweets could make $DOGE jump 30%, but to hit $1, he needs to do something real—like Tesla announcing it accepts DOGE payments, or the X platform (Twitter) integrating DOGE into its payment system. Just posting memes isn't enough anymore; there needs to be actual use cases implemented. If one day SpaceX says, "Our Mars base will use Dogecoin for settlements," that would be a nuclear-level positive.
Second, Bitcoin has to go crazy first.
There's a rule in crypto: when Bitcoin rises, altcoins can go wild. If BTC doesn't hit $150,000 or even $200,000, DOGE flying solo to $1? No chance. The entire crypto market has to enter a super cycle, with hot money running wild everywhere, even air coins rising tenfold—that's when DOGE has a chance to take off.
Third, big institutions need to enter the market.
Right now, traditional financial giants like Grayscale and BlackRock are all playing Bitcoin ETFs. If someday a "Dogecoin ETF" application pops up, that would be a serious signal. Institutional money isn't like retail investors' small change; once they come in, the scale changes dramatically.
Fourth, the Federal Reserve has to "print money."
Simply put, crypto market ups and downs are tied to US dollar liquidity. The Fed needs to cut interest rates, print money, and do quantitative easing. When hot money has nowhere else to go, it flows into high-risk assets. The 2021 bull market came exactly like this.
To be realistic
DOGE hitting $1 isn't impossible, but the probability is really low. Its infinite supply mechanism is right there, with 5% inflation annually, making it harder to pump over time. Unless all the above factors explode simultaneously, creating a "perfect storm" level of wild bull market.
So yeah, if that day ever comes, it's most likely the entire crypto market partying hard, Bitcoin breaking all-time highs, Ethereum soaring to the sky, and DOGE rising with the tide. But if you expect it to shine alone? Wake up, this is Dogecoin, not some miracle coin.
Investing carries risks, don't go all in, save some money for dog food.#AMD earnings exceeded expectations, is growth already priced in?
Talking about AMD's earnings report, many friends were confused at first—both revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, and the guidance for the next quarter was raised. So why did the stock price plunge nearly 9% after hours? $AMD
Actually, looking at the recent market and investor sentiment together, this makes perfect sense.
🤔 What exactly is the market trading on?
This stock price drop, on the surface, looks like a sell-the-news reaction, but the core issue is the market's extreme scrutiny of valuation and gross margin.
The stock price had already surged significantly before the earnings, pushing expectations to the ceiling. When expectations are set so high, just beating estimates is no longer enough; the report must be flawless to support further price gains.
Two subtle points in the earnings triggered investors to take profits:
▶️ One is that although the data center business more than doubled, the new architecture is still in the capacity ramp-up phase, which lowered the short-term GAAP gross margin.
▶️ The other is that the traditional gaming business continued to decline by 30%, making growth appear overly reliant on single-core drivers.
What investors are trading now is not whether AMD can grow, but whether its profitability can justify the high valuation.
💡 What needs to be delivered to regain recognition?
Compared to pure revenue numbers, I believe capital will focus on these three points going forward:
🪁 First and foremost, gross margin and earnings quality
No matter how large the data center scale is, if upfront investments and depreciation dilute profit margins, the market will doubt AMD's pricing power. Only when new products scale up and gross margins steadily improve will the market dare to assign a high premium again.
🪁 Second, the true stickiness of AI products
AMD needs to prove it is not just a substitute during capacity shortages but a core option that top clients are willing to commit to long-term.
🪁 Lastly, balance in business structure
If gaming and embedded businesses keep dragging behind, the pressure on the data center as the sole pillar will only increase.
💡 Positioning strategy and future outlook
For friends holding AI tech stocks, this earnings report sends a clear signal: the high-growth first half of AI hardware is over, and the market is moving from storytelling to meticulous cost-performance accounting.
In the short term, the stock price may fluctuate near key support levels to digest the gross margin impact, and sentiment cleansing will take a few weeks.
But in the medium to long term, the trend of tech giants sourcing computing power from dual sources is irreversible. AMD, as an indispensable and strong competitor in the market, still has a clear big picture. When capacity ramps up smoothly in the second half and profit margins stop falling and start to rise, the opportunity for valuation re-rating will return.
Growth stocks worth holding long-term are never smooth sailing; they are companies that, under high pressure tests, can still convert growth into solid cash flow.
Not investment advice DYOR #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
The market is currently hyping AI storage, HBF, and HBM shortages, even with expectations looking as far ahead as 2027.
But the problem is, the better the story sounds, the more likely the stock price has been prematurely priced in.
HBF has great future potential, but it will take a long time from technical implementation to actually contributing profits.
If the earnings report only meets expectations rather than significantly exceeding them, investors at high levels are very likely to cash out directly.
Often, the most dangerous thing is not the absence of good news, but that everyone already knows the good news.
Tonight, I am more inclined to wait and see, not to bet on instant earnings-driven price swings.
The market always has opportunities, but risks under high expectations cannot be ignored.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
The earnings performance is actually good, with core data exceeding expectations, and AI business losses narrowing.
But the market is now more focused on another issue—the unlocking pressure.
On August 6, a large number of shares will be released, and early investors with low costs have strong incentives to realize profits.
So short-term stock price fluctuations are very normal, as capital will first absorb the selling pressure.
However, in the long term, Starlink growth, rocket launch capabilities, and AI deployment remain SpaceX's core value.
The real opportunity may come after the unlocking pressure is released, to see if the market re-recognizes its growth logic.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 Complete Analysis of A-Share Market Close on August 5
1. Core Market Data
By close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3878.43, surging 1.47%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 14142.62, up 1.86%; the ChiNext Index at 3524.11, rising 1.32%; and the STAR 50 Index soared 4.78%, with growth elasticity leading the entire market.
The total turnover of the two markets reached 2.68 trillion yuan, exceeding yesterday’s volume by over 450 billion yuan, clearly indicating incremental capital inflow; more than 3,700 stocks closed higher, with a gain-to-loss ratio close to 2:1, 92 stocks hit the daily limit up, and only 3 stocks hit the daily limit down, confirming a broad-based recovery rally.
Northbound funds recorded a net inflow exceeding 12.6 billion yuan throughout the day, accelerating inflows near the close, heavily increasing positions in semiconductors, memory, and optical communication sectors.
2. Main Themes and Sectors: Explosive Growth Across the Entire Storage Semiconductor Industry Chain (Core Driver)
1. Storage Chips (Strongest Theme in the Market)
Overnight, US stocks SanDisk and Micron surged sharply; South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung also rose significantly. Coupled with optimistic expectations for AI computing power and storage demand, the sector surged over 6% across the board. Gigadevice, Jiangbolong, and Baiwei Storage rallied substantially; semiconductor equipment and electronic specialty gases saw mass daily limit ups; Changxin Memory and related industry chain stocks collectively strengthened, with institutional funds aggressively bottom-fishing and returning.
2. Optical Communication / CPO Computing Power
Computing hardware maintained strength; Tongfu Communication, Guangxun Technology, and Yongding Co. continued to rally; computing cables and high-speed PCBs also strengthened simultaneously. AI infrastructure logic continues to attract clustered capital.
3. Electronic Components and Passive Components
MLCCs and RF components followed the rally; the consumer electronics supply chain fully recovered; overseas memory sector sentiment resonated, driving valuation recovery in domestic electronics sectors.
3. Weak and Adjusting Sectors
Consumer liquor and food & beverage sectors fluctuated slightly; telecom operators and traditional energy sectors weakened mildly; pharmaceutical CXO sectors diverged, with only leaders slightly recovering. Capital shifted focus from defensive sectors to technology growth.
4. Core Logic Behind the Rally
1. External Catalysts: Global storage chips collectively surged; Hynix released new industry standards and institutions raised target prices, strengthening expectations for cyclical recovery;
2. Capital Rotation: Risk-averse funds flowed out from consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, massively reallocating to low-position, oversold technology sectors, with volume confirming the rebound’s validity;
3. Policy Support: Financial policies supporting high-end manufacturing were implemented; long-term development expectations for semiconductors and AI computing power stabilized market confidence;
4. Liquidity is moderately loose; market turnover continues to expand, supporting the rebound with capital inflows rather than a zero-sum game.
5. Market Outlook
1. Index Level: The Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above the key resistance at 3850, breaking out of the consolidation range with volume, opening a short-term upward trend; the STAR 50 leads gains, continuing the technology growth rally;
2. Sector Rhythm: Storage and computing hardware remain the market’s core themes; overnight overseas chip markets continue to improve, providing ample opportunities to buy on dips;
3. Risk Warning: After consecutive sharp gains, a slight profit-taking pullback and consolidation may occur; avoid chasing at high levels; medium- to long-term risks from hawkish Fed rhetoric abroad still require attention.