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A large on-chain transfer occurred today—a whale wallet dormant for seven months transferred 16,400 BTC in one go, worth about $1.04 billion.
All transferred to a new address, with no connection to any exchange.
This is not preparing to sell, but a custody reshuffle.
However, 16,400 BTC accounts for about 6% to 7% of typical daily spot trading volume.
The volume is significant, and the direction is worth watching.
The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 77 consecutive days.
US institutional buying remains absent, and the spot premium has been negative for a long time.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, still in the "fear" zone. The fear index has not improved despite the rebound in US stocks.
Something is coming next week—the Fed's H.4.1 report, which will disclose whether US Treasury collateral was used during the US-Japan joint intervention in the yen.
If confirmed, concerns about unwinding yen arbitrage trades will return, which would suppress risk assets.
BTC is now around 63,000, half the price of its historical peak. But with a 5.2% US Treasury yield in front, institutions are absent, retail investors are hesitant, miners are selling, and whales are repositioning. Don't take heavy positions before the direction emerges. If 62,000 holds, 64,000 is possible; if not, 60,000 or even lower. Wait for the direction before following, better than blindly rushing in the fog. $BTC AI Volatility Check: Cloud AI is stable, while memory remains under pressure
$QQQ's trading range is 1.4% from the intraday high to low, currently rebounding close to the intraday high of $676, while $SPY is approaching the intraday high of $741. This divergence may still be related to domestic pressure on China's memory and semiconductor equipment, while cloud AI remained relatively strong on the first day of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29.
$SOXX, after experiencing a 2.9% intraday high-to-low drop, still hovers in a weak intraday range around $491. $MU is at $817, $SNDK at $1091, $WDC at $440, and $AMD at $455, all rebounding from lows but still well below opening prices; $SNDK fell 9.6% from open to low, $WDC fell 8.2%.
$QQQ rebounded 1.3% from the low, but the semiconductor and memory sectors have yet to recover losses of the same magnitude. Purely handmade post, not AI
WTI first dropped 5%, then in the Asian session it only rebounded to $80.84. When oil prices retreat, long-term bond yields fall, and US stocks also rise accordingly. The money has fled first. The market has directly turned this night into a "inflation easing" scenario.
But the risk in oil has not disappeared. $WTI is still about 20% higher than before the conflict. What has been cut now is not demand, but the premium for "the next round of strikes happening immediately."
Do not continue to short below the current price, nor rush to catch the rebound. Only when Gulf shipping continues to recover and long-term bond yields keep falling can this easing trade be considered stable; if news fluctuates, the $82–$84 range will become a risk zone again. Data is as of today's noon Beijing time, this post does not constitute investment advice.
#crudeoil #WTI #USTreasuryYields #geopolitics The recent rebound in US tech stocks last week really doesn't need to be overinterpreted as "Microsoft and Amazon saving AI." Simply put, it was just a natural recovery after the market sentiment hit bottom due to a sharp recent pullback. The previous round of sell-off pushed the forward valuations of the seven giants down to the lowest range seen in the past three to five years, so mindless selling was never logical.
What everyone truly fears is the bottomless money-burning pit, but looking at the financials of these giants, healthy cash flow is right there. This is called early-stage strategic infrastructure, which is completely different from the pure loss castles in the air during the internet bubble era.
The real watershed for the AI sector lies in the charging model and enterprise adoption. Models like OpenAI’s unlimited monthly token subscription are still bleeding money due to heavy user high-frequency calls; whereas companies like Anthropic, which precisely target enterprise workflows with tiered usage limits, have already established positive cash flow on the B2B side. Simply put, once the charging model changes and pay-as-you-go billing is implemented, AI is far from any illusory bubble.
This week, the market should focus on two signals:
On one hand, PMI and nonfarm payroll data. After the summer travel consumption peak passes, a slight cooling in employment data would actually be a remedy for the market, effectively extinguishing the Federal Reserve’s rate hike signals and extending market liquidity.
On the other hand, look at the real-world resistance to physical AI: Compared to Robotaxi, which is hyped conceptually but easily runs into taxi interest groups and local policy barriers, I am more optimistic about humanoid robots (Optimus). The current social reality is that no one wants to do high-wage basic physical labor, so robots filling these pure labor shortages hardly compete with the existing workforce, making their adoption much less resistant.
As ordinary investors, it’s impossible to outpace institutions and first-hand data providers in information speed. The real trump card for retail investors is to avoid leverage and frequent short-term high-frequency trading, trading time for space, and patiently waiting for the fundamentals and performance of quality assets to gradually materialize.
$TSLA $MSFT $AMZN #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Fundamental Research Report $CRM / Salesforce (NYSE·SaaS/AI CRM) $185.95 (24h +1.05%)
In plain terms: Salesforce ($CRM) has a comprehensive score of 65/100, rated as fundamentally qualified but with flaws. The business fundamentals mainly rely on external paid services, and the market cap to revenue multiple remains within a reasonable range.
Company Overview: Salesforce ($CRM) is listed on NYSE, operating in the SaaS/AI CRM sector. Simply put: enterprise CRM + Agentforce. Competitors include MSFT and ORCL. AI computing power demand comes from large model training and inference, with hyperscaler capital expenditure as the core driver. The price of a single AI server ranges from $200,000 to $500,000, with a gross margin of 10-15%; economies of scale determine profitability. It does not involve token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product deployment: officially operational with paid usage; revenue is verifiable via SEC 10-Q/10-K filings, financial data is legally disclosed. The latest version was not found, and no valid submissions were found in the past 90 days.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. The stock’s 24h trading volume is $11.53M; the structure of circulating shares and market cap is to be confirmed. The core focus is whether revenue growth rate and gross margin align with stock price expectations. Revenue side: operating revenue is $42.83B (latest financial report/consensus expectation), gross profit estimated by industry average pending update, net profit to be confirmed by 10-K/10-Q, shareholder returns viewed through buybacks and dividends. Profits of US-listed companies do not equate to profits for token holders; BTC-related stocks like MSTR/COIN require separate separation of BTC unrealized gains. On the code side, no valid submissions or active contributors found in the past 90 days; latest version not found. GitHub is an A-level evidence source for direct verification. Investment background: Salesforce ($CRM) is the listed entity; shareholder structure is based on 13F/10-K disclosures. Primary partnerships are A-level evidence via IR announcements; media mentions and industry conferences are C/D-level and not used as sole commercial deployment evidence.
Valuation anchor: circulating market cap $152.29B, valued by P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable for token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) require splitting BTC exposure and core business for revaluation. Compared with peers (using consistent criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): circulating market cap - Salesforce $152.29B, MSFT $3.62T, ORCL $408.59B. FDV: Salesforce undisclosed, MSFT $3.62T, ORCL $408.59B. Annual revenue: Salesforce $42.83B, MSFT $331.84B, ORCL $67.36B. Monthly active addresses or users: undisclosed for Salesforce, MSFT, ORCL. Figures are based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: current market cap $152.29B, P/S (consensus revenue) 3.6x. Cyclical stocks (miners/GPU) use cycle-adjusted P/E. Pessimistic view cuts $152.29B in half, neutral maintains range, optimistic sees P/S expansion of 20-50%. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 65/100). Equity value anchor looks at revenue, net profit, buybacks, and dividends. Circulating market cap is reasonable or slightly undervalued relative to fundamentals; FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Main risks: macro interest rate hikes pressuring valuation, AI capex investment below expectations, regulatory litigation (SEC/DoL). Tracking indicators: revenue growth, gross margin, buyback amount, order backlog, institutional holdings changes (13F). Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires revaluation.
That’s all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #USStocks #Research #OKXOrbitThe Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes were released, showing some members want to raise rates, some want to cut rates, and Wash is in the middle saying "let's wait and see" — I stared at this document laughing for a long time, confirming one thing: even the central bank has family quarrels, and they are louder than my neighbors'.
📜 First, look at the meeting minutes: one faction wants to raise, one wants to cut, and one is pretending to sleep
On August 2, the Federal Reserve released the July FOMC meeting minutes, revealing three factions' views:
One faction advocates rate hikes: led by the St. Louis Fed President, three members voted to immediately raise rates by 25 basis points. The reason is "inflation has been above the 2% target for five consecutive years," and if no action is taken, inflation expectations will spiral out of control. Some even suggest raising rates to 4.5% within the year.
One faction advocates rate cuts: the Cleveland Fed President argues that rate cuts should begin, stating "the benchmark rate is far above inflation, and the restrictiveness has gone too far." He proposed cuts back in January but was vetoed by Wash.
One faction is in the middle: Wash maintains the benchmark rate unchanged, reasoning that "long-term rates are already doing the work for me, let's wait and see."
Then the market exploded. Because previously the Fed was "united as one," this time it was an "open internal conflict."
🎲 How did the market react?
The probability of a rate hike jumped from 37.9% before the meeting to 78%. The chance of a 50 basis point hike in September even emerged. The 30-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.27%, a 19-year high. The S&P 500 dropped 2.3% that day, and Bitcoin fell to $65,500.
The market isn't afraid of rate hikes; it's afraid of "what exactly are you going to do?"
📖 Tao Te Ching: Governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish
Laozi wrote a timeless saying in Chapter 60 of the Tao Te Ching: "Governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish."
What does it mean? When frying small fish, you can't flip it too often, or the fish meat will break apart. Governing a country is like frying fish — policies must be stable and consistent, not changing orders every day, flipping back and forth.
The Fed is now "frying fish," and flipping more frequently than a street pancake vendor:
· One faction wants to flip the fish (raise rates)
· One faction wants to turn off the heat (cut rates)
· Wash says "let's fry a bit longer" (maintain rates)
The fish isn't cooked yet, but the meat is already broken. The market isn't afraid the fish isn't cooked; it's afraid you flip the fish to pieces and serve it.
💎 Why is this more frightening than the rate hike itself?
First, credibility collapse. The Fed's most valuable asset over the past 30 years wasn't the interest rate tool but "expectation management." In the Powell era, the market always knew what the central bank would do. Now? The three factions openly quarrel, and investors can't even guess "whether rates will rise or fall next month" — for the market, uncertainty itself is the biggest negative.
Second, the "Fed put" is broken. The market used to believe that if prices fell too much, the Fed would rescue. Now? Even the Fed itself doesn't know whether to rescue, how to rescue, or when to rescue.
Third, the crypto space is an "uncertainty amplifier." Bitcoin's pricing depends on the risk-free rate in the denominator and liquidity premium in the numerator. When the denominator's pricing power is held by a quarrelling central bank — the crypto space becomes the biggest victim.
🎯 My trading advice
First, wait. Before the September FOMC, all rebounds are traps. Don't side with a bunch of quarrelling people.
Second, don't bet on direction. If the hawks win → risk assets fall; if the doves win → inflation expectations rise again → long-term rates soar → risk assets still fall. In either case, risk assets pay the price.
Third, cash is king. Don't rush to act before the Fed finishes cooking the fish.
I am the man who held from $10 to $17, then saw it drop to $5.5 before returning to $17. Today's Fed drama made me realize one thing: when the central bank starts fighting at home, the best place is to sit at the door and watch the show.
"Governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish" — flipping too much breaks the fish. The Fed flips fish more often than I change my positions.
Follow me, I won't teach you to flip fish with the Fed; I'll teach you to wait until the fish is cooked before picking up your chopsticks. Hit follow, so next time the Fed quarrels again, at least someone will whisper in your ear — "Don't move! Let them finish fighting first!"
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#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
$BTC $BEAT
@你的爱播Misa @宁波放牛娃 @小确幸(Bch是世界上最有价值的币) @Wolf.Win @皮神⚡ #Korean Leveraged ETF Trading Volume Drops 90%, Volatility Narrows
Recently, the global storage chip market experienced a rollercoaster ride, which was basically driven by leveraged funds piling up crazily. Korean retail investors crowded into 2x leveraged ETFs aggressively targeting Samsung and $SKHYNIX SK Hynix, while on the US side, MU Micron and SNDK SanDisk's parent company Western Digital also followed suit with volatile moves. Both markets mirrored each other, with daily price swings of four to five percent becoming routine. At its peak, the daily trading volume of Korean leveraged ETFs hit 12 trillion KRW, with nearly half of the market's volatility supported by these speculative players, completely detached from fundamentals in a nationwide gamble.
As a result, regulators cracked down hard: the new purchase threshold was raised to a 30 million KRW margin, effectively blocking ordinary small retail investors.
Within just two trading days, leveraged ETF trading volume plummeted by 90%, shrinking from an average daily volume of over ten trillion KRW to just over one trillion KRW. Individual stock volatility instantly flattened, and the previously daily wild swings disappeared completely. This also led to reduced volatility in the US storage sector stocks MU Micron and $SNDK SanDisk, as the most aggressive Korean retail momentum was gone.
In short: no leverage, no market action; remove speculative players, and the market turns into a stagnant pool.
This perfectly aligns with the current trend in our crypto space!
Many have wondered why BTC and ETH volatility is shrinking, with fewer spikes, weak breakouts, and sideways grinding?
The essence is global synchronized deleveraging.
Previously, the Korean market's high-volatility funds were a global risk appetite indicator. With these aggressive retail investors locked out of leverage and restricted from entry, a large chunk of hot money disappeared from the market. Funds accustomed to high frequency, high leverage, and quick in-and-out moves now either dare not act or are waiting on the sidelines.
This also explains:
Why BTC stubbornly stays range-bound without violent rallies or deep sell-offs. Why ETH remains weak with no rebound strength.
Overall market volatility continues to compress, and the profit-making effect is very poor. It's not that the market is bad, but that high-volatility speculative funds are collectively dormant.
But from another perspective, this is also a setup.
Korean retail investors have always been active in both stock and crypto markets. Now that leverage in stocks is welded shut, without amplifiers to make quick money, will some idle funds turn to BTC and ETH? After all, these people are used to high volatility and will chase excitement wherever it is.
The current sideways, low-volatility market is the calm before the storm. With the leverage bubble fully squeezed out and the market thoroughly cleaned, once funds flow back, the rebound will be steadier and stronger. Be patient and wait for this external hot money to return and ignite the market.
Have you noticed the market has been grinding with decreasing volume lately? Do you think this batch of speculative funds retreating from the Korean stock market will flow into the crypto market? Transaction record: The reasons for chasing the rise this time are, first, SPCX has dropped significantly, leaving room for a rebound due to speculation; second, the market has very likely already priced in the risks related to large-scale unlocks and earnings reports; third, Elon Musk's call indeed creates short-term bullish sentiment, so speculating on a rebound around the 124 price level.#Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI: Bet or bubble
$GRVT
Let's break down today's market move into three layers to understand: what happened, how the market reacted, and why it relates to the crypto space.
First, what happened — three signals overlapped. Trump started a "upgrade, expand, or withdraw" three-way game on the Iran issue, causing geopolitical uncertainty to spike; Moody's upgraded SK Hynix's rating to A, signaling traditional finance's endorsement of AI storage demand; plus, last week, the daily trading volume of 44 crypto spot exchanges dropped to $15 billion, hitting a new low for the year, shrinking 70% from the January peak.
How to interpret the capital side? The halving of trading volume is not isolated; it reflects an overall contraction in risk assets. Geopolitical disturbances make everyone cautious, while SK Hynix's rating upgrade shifts attention to AI hardware and other traditional sectors supported by cash flow. Funds remaining in the crypto market are either waiting for direction or temporarily sidelined. In low volume periods, any news causes amplified reactions, but sustainability is honestly mediocre.
Impact on BTC/ETH/SOL/GRVT: BTC is basically range-bound with such low volume, waiting for external factors to break out; ETH follows the broader market but is more sensitive than BTC when risk appetite shrinks; SOL is a flexible player whose volatility may be selectively amplified or ignored during low volume. GRVT is currently at $0.27, with a 24-hour range from $0.25 to $0.29, a typical low-liquidity, high-volatility pattern — no main capital inflow, so price is easily pushed around by small orders, but no independent directional logic yet.
Next, watch two conditions: first, whether GRVT can hold above $0.28, the first resistance after the 24-hour high pullback; second, if total crypto trading volume stays below $20 billion, any rebound should be seen as a technical correction, not a trend reversal. Without volume-driven breakout, the higher the price stands, the sharper the drop feels on pullback.
Finally, a risk reminder: geopolitical events can escalate anytime, and any outcome of Trump's three-way choice will trigger risk asset repricing. So at this stage, position management is far more important than directional judgment.When the tower crane's night lights suddenly went out at 3 a.m., any chief engineer would put down their coffee cup and rush into the foundation pit—the CLARITY Act construction countdown clock had burned down to 72 hours, yet the supervisor's office inbox still held that unsigned cloture motion. This isn't a design change; it's the entire main structure silently protesting before the rebar inspection.
In my thirty years in the industry, what I fear most isn't complex blueprints but insufficient structural determinacy. The Republicans drew 53 independent columns, but the building code requires 60 load-bearing nodes for the whole building—the 7 missing anchors are the bolts the Democrats haven't yet brought in. The Senate recess on August 10 is like a cold joint in concrete pouring; August 5 is the initial set time—past this point, any pouring crew must chisel off the old layer and re-form the mold. Thune's warning at the supervision meeting was the red annotation on the load report; Lummis said the agenda seats have been locked for three weeks, meaning the embedded anchor bolts at the column bases are positioned but no grouting has been done. The white paper's bird's-eye view is always on the first page of the proposal booklet, but what truly supports the building is the cluster of reinforced concrete piles fifteen meters underground—the CLARITY Act white paper has been repeatedly studied by the market, but its foundational construction log remains a blank sheet.
Currently, the market gives this building only a 33% acceptance probability. Structural engineers fall silent upon hearing this number—they can see the unseen crack precursors in the bending moment diagrams. And $XAUT, which moves in tandem with the US stock market, is like the sealed lead sample inside the building's core tube: it doesn't participate in construction, only records stress. Gold is the basement's water-stop steel plate; when the floors still sway, it quietly absorbs all horizontal loads. Every sway of the US stock tower crane transmits macro information via steel cables to the electronic scale in the vault—but today's reading tells us the node slip hasn't exceeded code tolerances.
As someone who deals with structures year-round, I never care how many clouds the glass curtain wall reflects in the renderings. I look at the reinforcement ratio of the ground beams, at how many settlement joints are actually embedded in the entire CLARITY Act compliance framework. The Republicans hold 53 votes, which equals 53 prefabricated piles, while the static load test reports for the Democrats' 7 piles have yet to be submitted to the lab. August 5 is not the deadline for design changes but the inspection window after weld cooling—missing this window means grinding off weld spurs and starting over. Without the cloture motion, it's like the tower crane's long arm is suspended mid-air, all wind loads borne by temporary guy ropes, yet the site remains so quiet you can hear the steel's thermal expansion and contraction crackling.
Gold never rushes the construction crew. It just lies quietly in the temporary material yard, watching the blueprints unfold layer by layer, then roll up layer by layer. Whether the CLARITY Act building can be topped out is not decided by the facade consultants nor the decoration budget sheet—but solely by the seven columns in the basement slab that haven't been poured yet. Seven columns, seven Democratic signatures—this is the load-bearing wall of the entire bill skyscraper. Without the wall built, the floor slabs exist only in the assumed load tables of the calculation book. The structural report's conclusion has only one line: the invisible piles are the only real building. #clarityact72hours🔥The peripheral markets surged significantly, but $BTC failed to strengthen in sync! Is this round merely a rebound or a trend reversal? Reference for future operation ideas
Conclusion first: At this stage, it is defined as a rebound and does not yet meet the conditions for a reversal. Three core logics:
1️⃣ US-Iran easing takes effect, oil prices drop sharply. Trump revealed that US-Iran negotiations are advancing in two phases, and market inflation expectations continue to cool down.
2️⃣ US stocks see a strong rebound, but BTC's rally is relatively weak. BTC hit resistance at the 64000 level, then pulled back to around 63550.
3️⃣ Lack of incremental support in funds; BTC spot ETFs continue net outflows, totaling $333 million over three consecutive days.
In brief: The driving force behind this round of rise comes from falling oil prices → easing inflation expectations, which boosts US stocks, rather than sustained inflows of incremental funds into the crypto market.
Short-term strategy sharing:
Mainly bearish view; when BTC rebounds to the 64000–64500 range, light short positions can be tried, with the first target at 63000.
Key support at 63000 must be defended: if it holds, maintain range-bound oscillation; if it breaks effectively, look further down to 62500.
⚠️This is only a market opinion exchange; the market is volatile and this does not constitute any investment advice
$BTC $ETH $BEAT
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions fully exposed
The July FOMC meeting was the most contradictory since Waller took office.
Interest rates remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, staying at 3.50%-3.75%. But the voting results exploded—9 votes in favor of holding steady, 3 votes against, all advocating a 25 basis point hike. Harker, Kashkari, and Logan all simultaneously cast dissenting votes in the same direction, the first time since 2016.
The core disagreement boils down to one sentence: inflation has been above 2% for five consecutive years, so should action be taken now?
Kashkari put it bluntly, comparing it to the stagflation of the 1970s, believing that once inflation is deeply entrenched, trying to suppress it later will only cost more. More importantly, he pointed out that AI data center construction is becoming a new demand engine—chips, electricity, equipment, construction—all pushing costs higher.
Harker’s view is similar, saying policy is not restrictive enough, and corporate cost pressures are not isolated but spreading across the entire industry. Logan shares the same stance; all three believe waiting longer will only make the brakes harder to apply later.
But Waller did not take the bait.
At the press conference, he still insisted on the 2% target, acknowledged that rate hikes are "entirely possible as part of the solution," but made no commitment to action. His logic is that in 42 days, U.S. Treasury yields have already risen, and the financial markets have done the rate-hiking work for him. He added, "Market participants are learning to watch the game, not the referee." In other words, don’t expect me to give you a roadmap.
But the market clearly didn’t buy it.
After the meeting, long-term bond yields surged, with the 10-year hitting 4.69% and the 30-year briefly breaking 5.2%. Short-term yields fell while long-term soared, steepening the curve to an extreme degree. Huatai Securities’ research report put it bluntly—the market may be pricing Waller’s "zero tolerance for inflation" as just a bluff. If you only shout slogans without action, everyone votes with their feet by pushing long-term rates higher.
This has two layers of impact on the crypto market.
In the short term, the expectation for a September rate hike has jumped from about 30% before the meeting to over 82%. If a hike really happens in September, the pressure on risk-free assets will continue. But another angle is worth pondering: Waller said the market has already hiked for him—the rise in long-term bond yields itself is tightening financial conditions. If this "market-driven rate hike" continues, the Fed might not actually need to act. For BTC, the latter scenario is somewhat friendlier because at least the policy rate remains unchanged.
The Fed is undergoing a profound internal rift, and Waller chooses to respond with silence. This division won’t end with one meeting; the debate will continue in September. For the crypto market, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. Strong growth in AWS boosts market confidence; Amazon (AMZN.US) market value surpasses $3 trillion for the first time, leading the "Seven Giants" in stock performance this year
Driven by robust growth in AWS cloud computing, Amazon's stock surged on Monday (intraday up 5.3%), with its market value surpassing $3 trillion for the first time in history, becoming the fifth company to join the "$3 Trillion Club" after Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.
Reasons for the rise
1. AWS exceeds expectations: Q2 AWS revenue grew 37% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2021, alleviating market concerns about the returns on massive AI capital expenditures
2. Surge after earnings: Stock jumped over 15% on the first trading day after earnings, marking the largest single-day gain in over 14 years, with market value increasing by nearly $400 billion in one day
3. Sentiment reversal: Previously, worries about AI investments caused the stock to fall nearly 18% from its historical high; AWS data restored investor confidence in the rationality of its AI strategy
Notable details
• Valuation still low: Current forward P/E ratio is about 25x, approximately 44% below the average of the past decade
• Staggering growth: It took about two years to grow from $2 trillion to $3 trillion; whereas it took over six years to go from $1 trillion to $2 trillion
• Wall Street remains optimistic: Analysts' average target price still implies about 14% upside from the current price
Summary in plain language
AWS's 37% growth proves AI investments are starting to pay off, shifting Amazon's narrative from "burning cash concerns" to "AI beneficiary," making it the strongest performer among the "Seven Giants" this year, with room for valuation recovery. #亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局 The easiest to liquidate today is not the bears nor the bulls but those who immediately max out their leverage after seeing the US stock market surge First, look at the stock market $QQQ pulled up near 700 $NVDA rose to around 206 Tech stocks have boosted risk appetite but $AAPL is still falling indicating this is not a mindless broad rally funds are picking directions First layer: look at $BTC $BTC is now about 63700 Intraday it rose from 62227 to 63996 Bullish recovery is strong but 64000 has From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's internal divisions are fully exposed: Will there be a cut in September?
A very rare situation has emerged within the Federal Reserve:
On one side, officials like Logan, Harker, and Kashkari are sending hawkish signals, believing that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated and even not ruling out maintaining high interest rates or further hikes;
On the other side, Waller clearly supports a 25 basis point cut in September.
The market seems more inclined to believe in "higher rates for longer," but I think the probability of a rate cut in September is being underestimated.
My core judgment is simple:
The Fed is looking not at past inflation but at future economic pressures.
In the past two years, the Fed's biggest task was to suppress inflation, so the market got used to using CPI to judge policy direction.
But the environment has changed now.
Although inflation hasn't fully returned to 2%, the downward trend is very clear. In contrast, the labor market is showing increasing pressure:
Slowing hiring, declining labor demand, and marginally rising unemployment—all these data points are equally important to the Fed.
If the next two CPI reports continue to show moderate declines while employment data weakens, then a September rate cut would not be a "pivot to dovishness" but a preemptive adjustment.
Of course, the biggest risk comes from inflation rebounding.
The logic supporting rate hikes is not without reason:
Rising oil prices, still strong economic demand, and sticky service prices could all put renewed pressure on CPI.
So when Waller says "no forward guidance," it actually highlights a key issue:
There is no consensus within the Fed right now; the real decision in September depends on the next two CPI reports.
But I think the market currently has a problem:
It is overpricing the "no rate cut" scenario.
When all funds lean in one direction, it actually creates trading opportunities.
If future CPI comes in below expectations, the market will quickly reprice the rate cut path, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, the dollar will weaken, and risk assets may see a round of valuation recovery.
For the crypto market, Fed divisions themselves are a source of volatility.
Past cycles have proven:
The true big-cycle driver for crypto assets is not just on-chain narratives but global liquidity.
Stronger rate cut expectations → improved dollar liquidity → increased risk appetite → BTC, ETH, and high-beta assets benefit.
So my current strategy is not to reduce positions just because of a few hawkish voices but to:
Maintain core positions while reducing short-term leverage.
Because the real danger is not a failed rate cut but the market having already priced in the cut fully.
If CPI surprises to the upside again, the market will reprice "higher rates for longer."
But if CPI confirms continued decline, the current bearish pricing could fuel further upside.
My bet:
September is more likely to see a 25bp cut rather than a hike.
The reason is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish but that the economic cycle is shifting from "controlling inflation" to "preventing overheating of growth."
The next two CPI reports are the key variables determining market direction.
The biggest opportunities now often lie not where the crowd is but in positioning ahead of the market's repricing. $BTC 🪝 News of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continuing to sell BTC continues to stir up the market. Once recognized within the industry as the benchmark for Bitcoin faith, it broke the long-standing "buy only, not sell" label by selling BTC in batches to pay high preferred stock dividends. Many people are still stuck in the debate between bulls and bears: Are institutions no longer optimistic about Bitcoin? But through this turmoil, the market is seeing a more fundamental industry truth—the purely static coin hoarding model inherently has a fatal flaw, and this is precisely the key opportunity for the CORE BTCFi narrative to enter a window period. 1. The MSTR Dilemma: Exposing the Biggest Loophole in the Pure Coin Hoarding Model Looking back at Strategy's development path, it relies on capital market financing to continuously accumulate Bitcoin, creating the world's most renowned BTC treasury model. During the bull market, this model is unstoppable, with asset market values continuously expanding. But this model has an unavoidable flaw: holding Bitcoin cannot generate any sustained cash flow. Up to 12% of preferred stock dividends per year are rigid expenses that must be paid regardless of BTC market fluctuations at maturity. If the market is doing well, it can still rely on additional shares for continued financing and position increase; Once the market fluctuates for a long time and funding channels narrow, the only option left is to sell Bitcoin for cash. The latest disclosures show that the company sold BTC at market lows, with transaction prices below the overall cost of holding positions. In other words, to cover daily operating expenses, they can only cash out at unfavorable prices. This is a common pain point for all long-term BTC holdersThe U.S. Treasury market is sending a signal that is increasingly unsettling Wall Street—the $30 trillion bond market is undergoing a "passive tightening" test. Three sets of data illustrate the issue: Long-term yields soared: In the last week of July, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, the highest since 2007; The 10-year Treasury yield has broken through its two-year trading range, surpassing the market's expected high at the end of 2025. This is not only a repricing of interest rate expectations, but more likely a shift in the "term premium" structure of the U.S. Treasury market—the market is willing to increase compensation for interest rate risk requirements. Rising volatility: The US Treasury volatility gauge MOVE index rose to its highest level since May, indicating that panic sentiment in the bond market is intensifying. Volatility in the bond market is spreading to other assets, forcing hedge funds to adjust their risk exposures. Increased hedging demand: Demand for put options related to long-term U.S. Treasury ETFs has risen significantly, and traders are positioning themselves in the options market for risk hedging — this is a defensive signal. Why have U.S. Treasury yields soared? On the surface, it seems the market is reassessing the Fed's determination to fight inflation—at the July FOMC, three regional Fed chairs voted in favor of rate hikes, breaking the previous unanimous consensus. A deeper reason may be that the market is reacting to Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's communication strategy of removing forward-looking guidance. When the Fed no longer provides a clear policy path, the market can only "complete itself" tightening by continuously raising long-term yields, rather than waiting for policy ratesThe Federal Reserve is a bit ridiculous right now.
Earlier, the market was calculating "when the rate cut would happen" every day,
now some people are openly demanding a direct rate hike.
July meeting:
Interest rates remain unchanged,
but 3 out of 12 votes want to raise by 25 basis points.
Even more outrageous, Wall Street itself is in chaos:
Some bet on a rate hike in September,
some on December,
and others still expect rate cuts.
The real danger is not "whether the Fed will hike or not."
But rather—the market has suddenly lost a clear direction.
Before, at least everyone could trade around the "rate cut timing."
Now it’s:
If inflation rises a bit more → rate hike;
If the economy worsens a bit → possibly turn dovish again.
This means every upcoming CPI, PCE, and nonfarm payroll report could slap both $BTC and the US stock market around.
So I don’t really trust those predictions of "definitely several hikes by year-end" or "definitely several cuts."
The only thing certain is:
The Fed’s consensus is gone, and volatility may be back.
$BTC $ETH
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
This has made MicroStrategy laugh to death. Taylor previously said he would be a diamond hand, only buying and not selling. The last interview said only that you shouldn’t buy, not that MicroStrategy wouldn’t sell. Once they started, they began selling coins and dividends.
I remember MicroStrategy’s average cost should be over 70,000, now selling at over 60,000, it should be out of desperation. If they had sufficient cash flow, I believe Taylor wouldn’t cut losses, after all, there were plenty of opportunities to take profits above 100,000, and he didn’t sell.
Although the amount sold this time is not large, the expected impact is far greater than the actual selling pressure, and the bulls’ confidence continues to be under pressure. Now we just hope there won’t be large sales, after all, MicroStrategy still holds more than 800,000 bitcoins. Hopefully, they can hold on; if they do, the next bull market will bring them huge profits. If they can’t hold on, MicroStrategy will be the biggest black swan!#EarningsObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Imminent, Circle Closes the Show
I'm Cige, tonight marks a critical night in earnings season. AMD and SpaceX report on the same day, Palantir has already set an example with 93% revenue growth and a 12% after-hours gain. Now let's see if these two can replicate the same script.
AMD, a major test for AI chip quality
AMD reports after market close tonight, with expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The core question is the shipment quality and gross margin level of the AI chip MI300 series. With Nvidia's H200 and B200 backlog piling up, whether AMD can carve out a bigger market share in AI chips will directly determine its stock price direction. Palantir has already validated that AI demand is materializing; if AMD can signal accelerated AI chip revenue, the entire AI hardware chain will be repriced.
SpaceX, the real test comes after the earnings
SpaceX will release its first earnings report since going public after market close the same day. The profitability and revenue growth of Starlink are the market focus. But the real test comes after the report: starting August 6, about 911.5 million shares will be unlocked, worth over $100 billion at recent prices. The founder's shares are locked until 2027, but selling pressure from early investors and employees is real. Whether the earnings can provide a clear profitability path for Starlink will determine if the unlocked shares can be absorbed.
Impact on BTC
Palantir's beat has already helped repair AI-related sentiment. If AMD also delivers a strong report, tech stocks will continue to rebound, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD falls short, sentiment in the AI hardware chain will be suppressed, and BTC will face short-term pressure. SpaceX's unlocking itself has no direct impact on BTC but will transmit through overall tech stock sentiment. Optical communication and storage sectors have already led a rebound recently; AMD's earnings will be the next catalyst.
What to watch next
Palantir's 93% growth confirms accelerating AI demand; the market now looks to see if AMD can deliver the same signal. If AMD's data is strong, the storage sector short squeeze will continue. If it misses expectations, there will be short-term profit-taking, but the fundamental AI demand remains unchanged. The earnings season logic is clear: beats lead to rises, meets lead to stability, misses lead to declines.
That's all from Cige. Ponder it carefully. #EarningsObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Imminent, Circle Closes the Show $BTC $ETH $SNDK #From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed divisions fully exposed
The Federal Reserve is torn between bulls and bears! Before the CPI data lands, firmly short on rallies
My approach: Before the new round of CPI data confirms cooling, all rallies are just emotional repairs. The main strategy is to firmly short on rallies, never prematurely betting on a rate cut reversal.
Recently, the Fed has completely staged an "internal struggle," with policy statements split to an absurd degree.
The market was crazily speculating on rate cut expectations not long ago, but now many officials have directly poured cold water on that.
The hawkish camp is tough: Logan, Harker, Kashkari collectively state that inflation is very sticky, the timing to adjust policy is not mature, and they tend to maintain or even continue rate hikes;
while Bullard alone sings dovish, worried about continued weakness in employment, first to express support for a slight rate cut in September.
On one hand, fighting inflation fiercely; on the other, worried about economic weakness. The Fed’s dual mission has directly produced two opposing market logics.
The key point: Wash is not making promises or guiding in advance; whether September will see a rate hike or cut is entirely left to the final judgment of the next two rounds of CPI data.
This has created the biggest feature of the current market:
All verbal emotions, no substantive landing.
Exactly the same as the previous yen verbal intervention routine: shouting disrupts the market but cannot change the real trend.
All officials switching hawkish and dovish stances back and forth are all short-term noise.
Today hawks slam the market, tomorrow doves support the bottom, the market rollercoaster repeats, heavy bets on one side get harvested.
There is only one real turning point in the market:
Inflation truly and continuously falling.
Without black-and-white data confirming cooling, all rate cut expectations are market self-delusions.
So my strategy is very simple:
No CPI landing, no trend reversal, focus entirely on shorting rallies
Do you favor a rate hike or cut in September? $BTC $ETH On July 29, the Federal Reserve held steady for the fifth consecutive time.
But the real news isn’t "no rate hike" — it’s the 9 votes in favor versus 3 against.
Three regional Fed presidents — Logan, Harker, Kashkari — directly voted against the rate hike.
Even Waller admitted the meeting discussion was "like a real family argument."
This isn’t just disagreement. This is an open split.
🔴 4 key names
🐦 Dove: Waller — the only one publicly calling for a rate cut. He said the labor market might deteriorate faster, and he supports a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting.
🦅 Hawks: Logan, Harker, Kashkari — the three who just voted against the rate hike.
Harker said inflation has been above 2% for over five years. Logan said "a moderate short-term rate hike can reduce the chance of being forced into aggressive tightening later." Kashkari said gradual hikes are far better than passively waiting and then being forced into drastic action.
⚖️ Referee: Waller — refuses to take sides, only looks at data. He said just three things: inflation is still high, the goal is to bring inflation back to 2%, and he is confident about that. How to achieve it? He didn’t say.
📊 2 reports that will decide the fate
Waller was very clear — whether to hike in September depends on two reports: July CPI + August CPI.
July CPI is out — up 1.8% year-over-year, 0.3% month-over-month, with energy prices jumping 1.3% in the month. Core CPI up 3.1% year-over-year.
This is not cooling down. It’s sticking.
If August also exceeds expectations — Waller might directly shift to more aggressive hikes in September.
📉 1 collective market misjudgment
CME data shows the market currently prices a 67.2% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
Chance of a cut? 0%.
But inside the FOMC, there are already clear voices calling for cuts.
On one side, the market fully prices in a hike; on the other, some committee members are calling for cuts.
The gap between spectrum and pricing = the biggest opportunity for a trade based on expectation divergence.
💎 My strategy:
Don’t bet on direction, bet on volatility.
Be prepared for both sides on the two CPI release days.
At the Jackson Hole Symposium from August 27-29, Waller may give the first real policy clues.
Before that — keep ammo ready, don’t max out your positions.
The market now is like a tightly stretched string. 67% hike probability, 3 dissenting votes, 1 person calling for cuts, 2 CPI reports yet to come.
Whoever lets go first, hurts first.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 I like playing with market maker coins because without market maker space, the market won't be very large, whether it's level one or level two. Someone asked me how to find market makers, so I'll briefly explain.
Level Two
My approach is to record each new token launch, noting the operation methods and the pump space. Once confirmed as a market maker coin, I continue to observe whether it prefers sustained pumping or a quick spike. When the next round comes, I can refer to the chart to see which ones haven't started yet. See the image below 👇
Level One
When a new public chain wants to develop, it's never all retail investors at the front. If the front row is all retail, it's not worth watching because it's hard to become a leader.
Regarding single projects with front-row bundling, I like playing this kind the most. Although it's said that many chains have such scams, on BSC it's generally rare. Front-row bundling that appears very high usually means they intend to push further. Snatching tokens and boosting volume always has costs. Rarely do they prepare all this just to scam you out of a few hundred USD. So when I see this, I usually invest a bit. During the last USD1 market, there were many like this, and I hardly ever lost, but I also don't put in too much position.#From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, Full Disclosure of Fed Divisions
🔥The Fed is in turmoil internally, from expectations of rate cuts to panic over rate hikes, the market is being spun around
Brothers, the macroeconomic situation lately is really tough to swallow.
Just a few months ago, the market was pricing in two or three rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, with some even betting on a 100 basis point cut within the year. But in the blink of an eye, the July FOMC minutes came out, and three regional Fed presidents voted against, supporting rate hikes. Fed Chair Waller spoke, sounding dovish on the surface but hawkish upon closer inspection—downplaying the single-month inflation drop, firmly defending the 2% target, and even starting to plan for balance sheet reduction.
The market was stunned on the spot: What happened to the promised rate cuts? Why the sudden talk of hikes?
How extreme is the division? A dot plot can illustrate five different life paths.
Let me show you how divided the Fed is internally right now.
At the July FOMC meeting, rates were held steady (3.5%-3.75%), but the vote was 9:3, with three members openly opposing and calling for further hikes. This is the largest dissent since 2025. Richmond Fed President Barkin later tried to smooth things over, saying he was "not sure if he would vote for hikes like those three," but added, "The U.S. currently does not have a tight labor market."
That sounds contradictory—if the labor market isn’t tight, it usually means the economy is cooling and rate cuts should be expected, right? But Barkin’s stance is: I’m not sure. Even he is wavering.
More crucial is Fed Chair Waller. The market interpreted his early August speech as a "dovish easing signal," but the analysis from Huitong.com directly contradicted that: Waller was sending a heavy hawkish signal. He deliberately downplayed the positive single-month inflation drop in June, emphasized that the 2% target has not been met, and kept both rate hikes and balance sheet reduction as tightening options. In plain language—that slight inflation dip doesn’t mean much; a rate hike in September is still possible.
So now the Fed is basically split into three camps:
- Hawks: Inflation isn’t dead yet, service inflation stickiness remains, Middle East tensions push oil prices up, tightening must continue. Representatives: the three dissenting voters, Waller (outwardly neutral but actually hawkish).
- Wait-and-see: Data is too messy, direction unclear, better to hold steady. Representative: Barkin.
- Doves: The job market is weakening, high rates have already hurt small businesses and consumer spending, it’s time to cut rates to support the economy. But this camp’s voice is clearly being suppressed now.
Why such a heated debate? Because the data itself is "conflicting"
Fed officials aren’t deliberately contradicting each other; the economic data is genuinely schizophrenic.
On inflation: Core PCE has fallen from highs, but service inflation (healthcare, education, housing rents) remains very sticky, still above 3% year-over-year. June PCE data did cool down, but Waller said "single-month data doesn’t represent a trend." More troubling, Middle East tensions are recurring, pushing oil prices higher, so the risk of imported inflation remains unresolved.
On employment: Nonfarm payrolls have missed expectations for several months, temporary jobs are declining, and unemployment shows signs of rising. But on the other hand, average hourly wage growth remains at 3.7%-4.1%, well above the level consistent with the 2% inflation target. This puts officials in a bind—the job market is slowing, but wages are still rising, so the "wage-price" spiral hasn’t broken.
External variables: How exactly do Trump’s tariff policies affect inflation? Short-term effects may be absorbed, but will they push core commodity prices higher in the medium to long term? No one can say for sure. After Powell stepped down in May, Waller took over, and the new chair’s style is more hawkish, which also changed the FOMC power dynamics.
So the current situation is: sticky inflation, weakening employment, flying external risks, and a hawkish new chair. Would you hike or cut rates? You’d be torn too.
What does this mean for crypto and risk assets?
The Fed’s open division hurts the market not because of "rate hikes" or "rate cuts" themselves, but because of expectation confusion.
Previously, the market unanimously expected rate cuts in 2026, so funds positioned early in risk assets, and BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold all rose. Now suddenly some are calling for hikes, breaking the entire logic chain. You can see the dollar index rebounding recently, the 10-year Treasury yield hovering stubbornly around 4.1%, and gold, though still high, showing increased volatility.
For crypto, liquidity expectations are lifeblood. If the Fed shifts from a "rate cut cycle" to "rate hikes again," or even just "a longer pause," risk asset valuations must be repriced. BTC’s gains this year largely rest on the narrative of "liquidity easing." Once that narrative loosens, correction pressure won’t be small.
But on the flip side, this division also creates volatility opportunities. Before the September meeting, there are two nonfarm payroll and two CPI releases, each triggering market re-bets on "hike vs cut." For seasoned swing traders, this high-volatility environment is a money-making chance—provided you keep up with the rhythm and don’t get blindsided by data.
My judgment: September will most likely hold steady, but the market will scare itself
Honestly, I think the chance of a real hike in September is low, but the combo of "no cut + hawkish talk" is very likely.
The reason is simple: The job market is indeed cooling, and hiking now risks pushing the economy straight into recession, so even a hawk like Waller wouldn’t dare take that risk. But inflation hasn’t met the target, so he definitely won’t cut rates. The safest choice is to keep rates unchanged while verbally hawkish, keeping future hikes on the table.
This "hold steady but scare the market" tactic is short-term bearish for crypto—liquidity expectations get suppressed, and funds become cautious. But in the medium term, as long as employment data continues to weaken, the Fed will eventually ease, just delayed.
Strategically, I recommend light positions and high agility over the next two months. Before the September meeting, any news on nonfarm payrolls, CPI, or oil prices will amplify volatility. Don’t bet heavily on direction before the data; the Fed itself hasn’t figured it out, so we shouldn’t pretend to. Wait for the September meeting to land and the direction to be clear before deciding to chase or flee.
The above is purely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Brothers, what do you think the Fed will do in September? Place your bets in the comments.#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
Palantir's earnings report is worth a closer look for people in the crypto space.
The stock price fell 29% this year, with the market listing all the bearish reasons—valuation too high, slowing growth, uncertainty in government contracts. But once the earnings came out, all the short-seller logic was overturned by the data.
Revenue hit 1.94 billion, a year-over-year surge of 93%. U.S. commercial revenue was 764 million, up 149%. U.S. government revenue grew 90%. The stock rose 13% after hours.
The real value of this isn’t in Palantir itself, but in how it validates a core proposition—that demand for AI applications is real and accelerating.
Microsoft has already answered the infrastructure layer question of “Can AI make money?” with its cloud revenue. Palantir, through real purchases from government and enterprise clients, answers the same question for the application layer. When the application layer starts buying at scale, the entire industry chain’s closed loop is truly running.
For the crypto world, this means the AI narrative is shifting from a “hardware arms race” to an “application landing phase.” Purely speculative projects will be eliminated, and projects that can truly land and generate revenue will start to receive premiums. The market will no longer pay for “possible futures” but will price based on “how much can be earned now.”
My view is straightforward: Palantir’s earnings validate a trend—AI is moving from “burning money telling stories” to “making money validating logic.”
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $SOL Fundamental Research Report $INJ / Injective (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
To put it simply: Injective ($INJ) has a composite score of 59/100, rated as narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking it down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: Injective (token $INJ), in the public chain/L1 sector. It focuses on a finance-specific chain and CosmWasm. Competitors include ETH and SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, facing issues like gas price spikes under high concurrency, TPS limitations, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: the protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, indicating paid usage. The latest version was not found; there were 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
On the user side, MAU and DAU are undisclosed, 24h trading volume is $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supplier income is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income is $2.00M, token holders' buyback and burn have no annualized burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. On the code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales can be checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration can be checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
On the token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap: Injective $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV: Injective $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue: Injective $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Injective undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Numbers are based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. To conclude: fundamentals are solid (score 59/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations, FDV is moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Continuous monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassessment is needed.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Through the scope, the outline of that data center has shrunk to one-fifteenth. It's not that the target got smaller — it's that my scale has been shifted down a notch.
Microsoft extended the depreciation period from fifteen years to twenty-five years and reclassified a fleet of finance lease ammunition trucks as operating lease logistics. On the books, the capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2026 dropped from 190 billion to 175 billion. This maneuver is as clean as re-hanging a camouflage net on the battlefield: the gun position hasn't moved, only the texture has changed. Excluding these two accounting moves, not a single arms order was canceled — 15 billion disappeared from the front of the balance sheet and was transferred to a footnote in a corner no one pays much attention to. What’s reduced is the panic on paper, not the dollars.
Finance leases originally tied the ammunition trucks onto the balance sheet, letting everyone see the barrels on the roof — here I am, expanding. After switching to operating leases, the same trucks are assigned to logistics units, recorded as fuel and toll expenses, and no longer appear on the list of armored vehicles. The asset sheet lost a tank, but the target position gained an identical shell. The war is still the same war, but the report is no longer the same report.
Rangefinders don’t lie. Adding Q4 capital expenditures and finance leases, the real firepower is 41 billion, a year-over-year surge of 69%. The claws of this beast haven’t been withdrawn; they’re thickening at a 70% annual rate. What’s truly been altered isn’t the amount of ammunition, but the ballistic table. Extending the depreciation period to twenty-five years means spreading the bullet’s kinetic energy loss over a longer flight time — the annual accounting consumption becomes lighter, but the moment it hits the target is pushed beyond the horizon.
Wall Street’s row of valuation models exhaled simultaneously: look, the giant is pulling back. What they see is the smoke of retreat; I see the trenches extending in the opposite direction on the battlefield. The front line hasn’t retreated, only the numbers in the report have been adjusted. More dangerously, the "twenty-five years" scale means an entire generation of investors, from entry to exit, may never hear the echo of this bullet. Microsoft is effectively admitting that the AI arms recovery cycle has exceeded the tolerance limit of any aggressive position configuration.
Next door, Google just pulled the trigger on a 40 billion Anthropic bet. The token on the board is slightly rising with Microsoft’s accounting magic — the market interprets the scale shift as the entire camp’s ammunition reserves moving backward. This is precisely the deadliest misjudgment: if even Microsoft needs to extend depreciation periods to mask ammunition spending, then when will Google’s bet break even? A longer ballistic trajectory means longer exposure — the wind has changed, and the enemy sees the flash on the trajectory before you do.
The bullet is still flying. But its owner is no longer in the firing position.SanDisk went from a 60% plunge to a violent 26% rebound and then a high surge followed by a pullback today. Lao Mo tells those trapped and those with empty positions what to do respectively.
Brothers, look at the data.
Yesterday, SanDisk staged a stunning reversal. It opened at 1159.84, hit an intraday low of 1121.27, then surged violently to a high of 1316.45, closing at 1288.03, with a daily amplitude exceeding 17%, closing up 6.03%. After hours, it continued to rise slightly by 0.2% to around 1290.59.
But looking at the candlestick over a longer period—on July 10 it was around 1807, dropped to 1354 on July 17, lowest at 1411 on July 24, and lowest at 1187 on July 31. From the high of 1807 on July 10 to yesterday’s low of 1121, it fell nearly 38%. From the historical high of 2354 in June, the maximum drawdown exceeded 52%.
First, look at the technicals to understand the current situation.
On the 4-hour level, the Bollinger Bands middle line is at 1238, upper band at 1308, lower band at 1168. The price at 1291 is running near the upper band 1308, which is a strong area but close to overbought. The SAR reversal signal at 1135 is far below, confirming the trend has switched from bearish to bullish. SuperTrend at 1132 below has formed support, turning from resistance into support.
MACD fast line is 13.46, slow line 4.46, histogram 18.00—after a golden cross above zero line, it continues to diverge, bullish momentum remains. But note the histogram may show signs of dulling compared to yesterday, after a 17% surge in one day.
Key levels: first resistance above is 1308-1316, break through to watch 1350-1404; first support below is 1238-1250, break below to watch 1200-1214, then further down 1168-1187.
The fundamentals are the biggest variable for this stock.
After market close on August 5 (Wednesday), SanDisk will release its fiscal 2026 Q4 and full-year earnings.
What does the market expect? Revenue of $7.75B-$8.25B, midpoint $8B, a 34% quarter-over-quarter increase and over 320% year-over-year growth. Non-GAAP EPS expected at $30-$33, compared to only $0.29 in the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin expected at 79%-81%. Analysts’ average expectations are even higher—revenue about $8.42B, EPS about $34.67.
Goldman Sachs raised the target price from $1200 directly to $2200, reiterating "Buy." Bernstein target price $3000, Bank of America target price $2500.
The company has signed 5 long-term supply contracts covering over one-third of NAND shipments for fiscal 2027, with 3 minimum contracts totaling about $42 billion in revenue.
But Lao Mo wants to remind you of a few things.
First, expectations are already very full. Wall Street expects $8.42B revenue and $34.67 EPS; if the earnings report only "meets expectations" rather than "significantly exceeds," the stock price may fall—buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Second, the storage sector overall is still under pressure. Samsung Electronics was hammered despite stellar results. Whether SanDisk can have an independent rally is uncertain.
Third, yesterday’s 17% amplitude has already priced in some earnings expectations. From 1121 to 1316, nearly 200 points rebound, those chasing are already betting on earnings beating expectations.
Lao Mo has a few words for brothers in two situations.
If you hold trapped long positions (cost above 1350-1400):
Congratulations on surviving the darkest moment. Yesterday’s rise from 1121 to 1316 shows bulls are still there.
But Lao Mo tells you the truth: before earnings is the riskiest time for this stock. Expectations are too full; if earnings miss or guidance is conservative, the stock may plunge back.
Two choices: if you have high risk tolerance and believe in AI storage’s mid-to-long-term logic, you can set a stop loss at 1238-1250 and hold to bet on earnings. If earnings beat, 1350-1400 or even higher is possible; if not, stop loss and exit with controllable loss. If you don’t want to bet on earnings, reduce half your position around 1300-1316 today, keep half to bet on earnings. This way you have position if it rises, and loss is halved if it falls. Reducing position is not because you are bearish, but because uncertainty before earnings is too high, locking in some profit first.
If you are empty-handed and want to enter:
This position is very awkward now. 1290 has already risen 17%, chasing now means betting on earnings.
Lao Mo gives you two choices:
Aggressive: wait for a pullback to 1238-1250 to stabilize (near Bollinger middle band), try a light long position with stop loss below 1200, target 1316-1350, exit before earnings or set protective stop loss. Why? 1238 is the Bollinger middle band and the 50% retracement of yesterday’s surge, technically supported. But position must be light; uncertainty before earnings is too high.
Conservative: wait for earnings release. Earnings come after market close on August 5, see market reaction on August 6 open. If earnings beat and stock gaps up and rallies, it’s not too late to chase; if earnings miss and stock crashes, you avoid a disaster. Don’t bet on earnings, just bet on trend—this is Lao Mo’s consistent principle.
For those wanting to short: Lao Mo advises not to short now. The trend just turned bullish, MACD golden cross, SAR turned bullish, SuperTrend turned bullish—three indicators all point to bulls, shorting against the trend is very risky. Even if you want to short, wait until after earnings when direction is clear.
Lao Mo’s final honest words.
SanDisk fell from 2354 to 1121, halved twice. Yesterday’s 17% rebound shows AI storage’s mid-to-long-term logic is not dead—5 long-term contracts lock in future years’ revenue, Goldman Sachs’s $2200 target price is not shouted casually.
But the surge before earnings often means expectations have been priced in early. If you rush in now, you are betting on "earnings beat expectations"; if you wait for a pullback to enter, you are betting on "trend continuation." Neither strategy is absolutely right or wrong, but Lao Mo hopes you know what you are betting on.
Are you betting long or short on SanDisk’s earnings? Discuss in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo’s analysis is clear, give a like and follow. When earnings come out, I’ll alert you first. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC vs. ETH vs. Altcoins: Where is the market's relative strength right now? The period where tokenomics interpretation precedes the price chart—has the market already reflected this? The current price movements in the crypto market are not just a technical rebound but a process of reevaluating supply structure. While BTC has a clear supply-demand axis driven by spot ETF demand, ETH and altcoins still face structural headwinds with large unlocked volumes. Especially over the past two years, as many high-FDV, low-circulation projects entered the market, the altcoin sector has repeatedly seen patterns where unlocked volumes consume the price increases. The core issue of this cycle is clear. The market has begun treating tokenomics not as a secondary indicator but as a key price-determining variable. In the past, technology and community size drove altcoin prices, but now, the FDV ratio to circulating supply and the unlock schedule over the next six months determine the price cap. This structural change creates a quality gap in supply and demand between BTC and altcoins.On July 29, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, at 3.50%-3.75%.
However, among the 12 voting members, 3 voted against — Logan, Harker, and Kashkari, all demanding an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has seen three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction at one meeting.
After the news, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, the Nasdaq fell 1.7%, and the Dow Jones declined 2.19%.
Bitcoin instantly dropped about 1%, hitting a low of $63,890.
Social circles were flooded with messages like "The hawks are coming," "Rate hike is certain in September," and "Run quickly."
But I added to my position.
Why? Because 99% of people only saw the 3 dissenting votes and missed three key details from Waller's press conference.
Detail one: Waller sent a clear dovish signal during the press conference.
He downplayed inflationary pressure from AI, saying price increases in AI-related products are localized phenomena, not a broad-based inflation surge.
He attributed the recent rise in market interest rates to a strong economy.
The most critical statement — the rise in market interest rates is already substituting for rate hikes. The financial markets have already done part of the Fed's tightening work.
What does this mean? Waller is saying: "The bond market has already hiked rates for me; I don't necessarily have to move the benchmark rate."
If this isn't dovish, what is?
Detail two: The probability of a rate hike in September has decreased rather than increased.
Before the meeting, the market priced the probability of a September hike at over 80%.
After the press conference, it dropped directly to nearly 60%.
By August 4, CME data showed the probability at about 67%, but the marginal trend was downward.
The market's first reaction is always emotional. The second reaction is directional. The direction is dovish.
Are you panicking and cutting losses in the first reaction, or seeing opportunity in the second?
Detail three: The US dollar index plunged.
From July 28 to 30, the US dollar index fell for three consecutive days, dropping over 1.5% cumulatively and breaking below the 100-point mark.
A falling dollar releases pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin holding above $63,000 indicates underlying demand remains solid.
The three dissenting votes scared off retail investors. The dollar's plunge signals to smart money: pressure is easing.
My strategy is simple:
Don't chase highs. Place staggered orders during every panic-driven drop triggered by macro data.
Below $63,000, place an order for every $1,000 drop.
While others panic, I focus on the details.
What to watch next?
August 27 to 29, Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Waller will deliver the keynote speech on August 28.
Morgan Stanley put it bluntly: if July and August CPI consecutively exceed expectations, Waller may shift to more aggressive hikes in September — this is the biggest current interest rate risk.
Stop-loss orders must be set properly. Macro traders' excess returns come from seeing details when others panic.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Bezos's reduction in holdings has limited short-term pressure on $AMZN's chips, and the overall market risk appetite remains balanced. The sell-off is less than 2% of his holdings, combined with moderately increased trading volume, and high-level buying smoothly absorbs the planned exit. If macro inflation data unexpectedly rebounds causing liquidity tightening, the decline in risk appetite will amplify the negative signal of insider selling. If subsequent regulatory documents show an abnormal expansion in the reduction ratio or a decline in core business earnings reports, the current moderately neutral consolidation scenario will be falsified.
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨If Apple falls below 300, I'll go all in
---
Conclusion first: I've already started a position in Apple, and I am not bearish at this level.
---
Many panicked seeing the 7% plunge on July 31, saying Apple is done. But when I checked the earnings report, revenue was 109.4 billion, net profit 29.8 billion, iPhone sales up 21%—is this a disaster? This is a money printing machine, okay.
There are only two reasons for the sell-off: Q4 guidance didn't exceed expectations, and memory prices rose. But memory price hikes are due to AI competing for capacity, which is cyclical; once the AI hype fades, costs will naturally fall back. Apple has already raised Mac and iPad prices, showing it has pricing power and can pass on costs.
What does 300 mean? It's a 13% pullback from the high of 344. Apple earns nearly 30 billion annually, holds 147 billion in cash, and generates 107.7 billion in free cash flow each year. There are very few cash flow machines like this worldwide.
Analysts' average target price is 319, with the highest at 400. Even if it only returns to the average, there's room to grow. If memory prices turn and the iPhone 17 cycle kicks off, going above 350 is entirely possible.
One thing many overlook: Apple is "going on-chain." Kraken's xStocks trades tokenized Apple shares on Solana and Ethereum, with a cumulative volume of 3.5 billion. Coinbase's stock index futures list Apple alongside BTC ETF and ETH ETF. Apple is becoming a 24/7 global asset.
There is a lot of bearish sentiment now, but when Apple dropped to 125 in 2022, it was also widely bearish. What happened next?
Apple's core competitiveness has never changed: the strongest brand, the healthiest wallet, the most stable money printing ability, and over 2 billion high-net-worth users. These are not things "AI narratives" can replace or "memory price hikes" can destroy.
I bought in at 313, and if it falls below 300, I'll add to my position, betting that market sentiment will swing from extreme pessimism back to rationality.
---
#OuyiPlanet #AAPL #Apple #BottomFishing #USStocks #ValueInvesting #Mag7 #TechStocks #PersonalInvestment #LongTermHold #AppleEarnings #iPhone17 #RWALast Friday, Trump was still making tough statements on social media, saying "the gun is loaded," and also saying that if Iran is struck, it would be a military action "unprecedented since World War II." The U.S. State Department also advised American citizens in the Middle East to consider leaving the area.
At that time, the market was like a person woken up at night, not fully dressed yet, first feeling the door for fire.
But in less than 48 hours, the script suddenly reversed.
Trump announced on Air Force One: the strike was canceled, and negotiations would take place on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar all came out to mediate, and Iran also reportedly "requested cancellation."
As soon as the news landed, oil prices immediately dropped.
Brent crude fell as much as 7.3% intraday, down to $81.55; WTI fell below $80. July’s original nearly 25% gain gave back almost a third in one day.
On the other hand, Bitcoin rose. BTC broke through $63,000, ETH rose over 2%, SOL rose over 3%. U.S. stock futures rallied, and gold surged to $4080.
Social media quickly became lively: peace has come, risk assets are about to take off.
But this matter is not so straightforward for BTC.
It’s not a single line, but two opposite ropes pulling simultaneously.
The first is positive.
Oil prices plummeting gives inflation expectations a chance to cool down; with inflation cooling, the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates reopens; with rate cut expectations returning, liquidity improves, and risk asset valuations naturally become easier to lift.
At the July Federal Reserve meeting, there were already three dissenting votes, one core reason being oil prices. If oil prices surge to $100, CPI can easily be reignited. Once CPI rises, even if the Fed wants to cut rates, it has to first consider inflation.
Now that oil prices have suddenly dropped, the rate cut story can be told again.
The second is negative.
Geopolitical tensions cooling down also cools risk-off sentiment. The "wartime premium" that gold and Bitcoin have enjoyed recently will be gradually stripped away by the market.
In recent months, the Middle East situation has tagged BTC with a "digital gold" label. This label is useful but fragile. When war expectations exist, it is a safe-haven asset; when war expectations retreat, it will be put back into the drawer of high-volatility risk assets.
So today’s price action is interesting:
Bitcoin rose, but only about 1%.
Brent crude fell more than 7%.
This shows path A is at work, but the market hasn’t fully believed it yet. It’s not that people don’t want to buy risk assets, but they don’t know if this is a real ceasefire or just a scene change at halftime.
Why the hesitation?
Because Iran said Trump’s claim that Iran requested to stop attacks is "a new lie."
Because Iran also said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to what it was before the conflict broke out.
Because this conflict has dragged on for more than five months, and Trump’s "sudden reversal" is not the first time.
One side says the deal is done, the other says it’s not true. The market is caught in the middle and can only trade the easiest part first: oil prices down, risk assets slightly recover.
But true peace has not yet been priced in.
BTC actually doesn’t need a world war to prove itself. What it truly needs long-term is the continued depreciation of fiat currency systems and central banks regaining the excuse to ease liquidity after inflation pressure declines.
From this perspective, low oil prices are not bad for BTC in the medium term. As long as falling oil prices can suppress inflation, and rate cut expectations are not destroyed, the liquidity story still has legs.
The short-term question is: when the risk-off premium recedes, will BTC be sold off first?
The medium-term question is: after oil prices fall, will the market refocus on rate cuts and liquidity?
What really matters is not what Trump says today, nor how Iran responds tomorrow, but the linkage in the coming days:
Whether oil prices continue to fall.
Whether U.S. tech stocks continue to strengthen.
Whether gold can maintain its high level.
Whether BTC has sustained capital inflows, not just a bounce on sentiment.
If oil prices stabilize at low levels, and U.S. stocks and BTC continue to rise, it means the market believes in path A: inflation cooling, rate cuts returning, risk appetite recovering.
If oil prices rebound, new variables emerge in Hormuz, gold remains strong, but BTC rallies then falls back, it means the market is trading a false peace.
This morning’s market priced in "no war."
Whether there will really be peace is the next episode.
And what BTC fears most is often not the bad news itself.
It fears that the market thinks the bad news is over, but it just continues in another form. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #🔴 $EUL Long Liquidation Alert
$1.765K in long positions has been liquidated at $1.420.
This suggests bullish traders were forced out as price moved lower. Watch whether sellers maintain control or buyers step in to reclaim key support.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🚨 $UNI Long Liquidation Alert
$55.67K in UNI long positions were liquidated at $3.827, showing strong selling pressure and increased market volatility.
Traders should stay cautious, as liquidations often lead to sharp price swings in both directions.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Bitcoin $BTC miner winter is spreading!!!
The total network hashrate has dropped to 908 EH/s, hitting a new low for 2026.
It now costs $78,000 in hashrate to mine one $BTC, which is higher than the spot price of around $65,000, meaning miners lose over $10,000 for every Bitcoin mined!!!
Outcome:
Forced shutdowns and marginal clearing: High electricity prices and inefficient old models (such as some S19 series) have completely breached the shutdown price. Miners "queue to shut down" as a rational choice to preserve capital. The hashrate reduction is the market clearing marginal high-cost capacity to rebalance supply and demand;
Lagged selling pressure release: To maintain fiat operating expenses and repay equipment debts, unhedged miners have to accelerate selling their inventory reserves, which in the short term puts selling pressure on the spot price. $BTC Script fully written, market flips the table — a midnight breakdown record of a contract player
Originally, my mindset was very stable today.
I had already made a plan for myself: once I break even, I’ll reward myself with a day off from trading, put down my phone, stay away from K-lines, and completely say goodbye to the trading fatigue of this period. I even thought about where to relax.
Carefully set up three lines of defense, thinking I had everything figured out:
· At 1842 points, heavy short position on ETH with 20x leverage — a precise "top pick," thinking I had nailed the market’s key point;
· Light long positions on SNDK and UB — a mix of big and small, offense and defense combined, confident this wave would cover the previous $2,000+ hole and turn things around.
But the market specializes in curing all kinds of "I thought so."
ETH gave no logic at all, violently pumping with no turning back. The heavy short position was directly pierced, losing 1269 USDT in a single trade, the account nearly halved.
Looking back at those two "hedge cards" — the tiny profit from SNDK wasn’t even enough to fill the gap; UB actually lost a little against the trend, making things worse. The carefully designed hedging system was meaningless in front of the main force, all meticulous plans instantly turned to waste.
At that moment, I broke down.
All plans, luck, and expectations were worthless in the face of the raging market. You try to calculate the market, but the market calculates you.
I couldn’t endure anymore, nor could I keep playing.
High-leverage contracts have never been an ordinary person’s way to turn things around; they are just a finely tuned meat grinder harvesting fantasies of sudden wealth.
Completely gave up.
Holding positions by fate, accepting profits and losses. No longer trying to outsmart the market — because the clown was actually myself.
---
🎯 Key points for you:
1. Three key numbers: 1842 (short position level) × 20x (leverage) × 1269 USDT (single loss) — one trade back to square one;
2. "Hedging" is a false proposition — small long positions can’t cover the hole of heavy short positions, risk exposure is seriously unbalanced;
3. Biggest illusion: thinking you can accurately predict the top — the main force’s violent pump cures all "top-picking confidence";
4. Ultimate lesson: contracts are harvesters, not ATMs — after continuous losses, trying to turn things around with one trade often starts even bigger losses.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is a personal trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. Leverage carries risks, trade cautiously.
---
$ETH $SNDK $UB #30YearUSBond, top or new starting point? #USJapanConfirmJointForexPurchase #EarningsObserver: Four draws this week, Circle is the finale🚨 STRATEGY’S BITCOIN FLYWHEEL MAY FINALLY BREAK TONIGHT!!!
$MSTR reports earnings tonight with:
• 843,775 BTC bought at an average price of $BTC 75,476
• STRC depegged to $BTC 88.5 versus its $100 target
• Three straight weeks without buying more BTC
• Strategy sold $BTC 544.5M of stock last week just to build cash reserves
$STRC was designed to trade near $100 through adjustable dividends.
The yield has already been raised to 12%, and $STRC still trades at a ~11% discount.
Strategy has now started buying STRC back, including $25 million at an average price of $86.52, allocating another $975 million for buybacks.
Sell $MSTR shares → dilute common holders → fund reserves and STRC support → buy less Bitcoin.
Tonight could expose the weakest balance sheet Strategy has faced in years.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise Bitcoin just punched back above $BTC 63,000 as U.S. equities ripped higher to open August, but the move feels more like a relief bounce than a clean breakout.
Stocks are firm, oil is sliding, and risk appetite is trying to return. Yet crypto still trades with one eye on thin liquidity, mixed ETF flows, and a security scare that has rattled holders of self-custody hardware. The Coldcard firmware issue has already drained tens of millions in $BTC across multiple waves. That kind of event does not break the network, but it does keep sentiment cautious and reminds everyone that operational risk still sits right beside market risk.
Meanwhile Strategy continues its familiar pattern of selling more $BTC while buying back preferred shares, and BlackRock is expanding tokenized cash products on-chain. Institutional plumbing is advancing even as price action stays range-bound. DEX volume share hit a fresh record in July, showing capital is still rotating on-chain rather than sitting idle.
In my view the market is in a classic mid-cycle digestion phase. $BTC is testing whether the 200-week moving average area near current levels can hold as real support. $ETH is consolidating while some accumulation continues. $SOL, $XRP and $BNB are moving with the broader tape but lack independent leadership. $ADA has shown relative strength on its roadmap progress. Names like $ALGO, $INJ and $ENA are catching selective flows, while $LINK, $DOT, $AVAX and $DOGE remain sensitive to any shift in risk sentiment. Even $HYPE and $UNI are reflecting the same liquidity and positioning dynamics playing out across the board.
None of this guarantees a sustained rally. August has historically been soft for $BTC, ETF demand has been uneven, and the CLARITY Act timeline plus upcoming earnings from Circle and others will set the tone for the next few weeks. Geopolitical noise around Iran adds another layer of uncertainty.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise Amazon's stock price is hovering near historical highs, and founder Bezos has gradually liquidated part of his holdings over the past six months, a move that quickly sparked market concerns about a peak in tech stocks.
Alongside the news of the sell-off, the overall trading volume in the US tech sector has moderately increased, but $AMZN has not experienced panic selling pressure.
This reduction accounts for less than 2% of his total holdings and is a pre-planned capital restructuring rather than an immediate rejection of the company's fundamentals.
When market liquidity is ample and risk appetite remains high, such slight insider holding adjustments are usually absorbed by strong buying.
If subsequent earnings reports show AWS business and AI catalysts continuing to exceed expectations, the stock price is likely to break through the high-level platform, but an unexpected rebound in macro inflation data would weaken this upward momentum.
If macro liquidity tightens more than expected, causing overall market risk appetite to decline, insider selling might be amplified as a negative signal; however, as long as core business profit margins have not peaked, the short-term pullback will be limited.
If later regulatory filings reveal an abnormal increase in insider selling proportions, or if tech stocks' overall earnings reports show systemic declines, the current judgment that planned sell-offs do not affect the overall trend will be falsified.
In the next seven days, the most important variables to watch are changes in macro liquidity indicators and the upcoming earnings reports from tech giants.
#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐🔴 $IDOL Long Liquidation Alert
$4.7339K in IDOL long positions were liquidated at $0.01552, showing that bullish traders were forced out as price moved against them.
Liquidation events often increase short-term volatility, so keep an eye on price action before entering new positions.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise $BTC Japan rescues the yen, the US supports US debt, but the risk has never disappeared—it just changed its disguise
You think central banks are "rescuing the market"? No, they are "passing the baton." $ETH
Recently, Japan intervened in the exchange rate again, and the US Treasury is busy calming the US debt market. On the surface, the yen stabilized, US bond yields were suppressed, and everyone was happy. But if you look closely at the market, you will find a harsh truth: the risk has not disappeared but has been transferred to a quieter corner.
Who is paying the price? $DOGE
— Is it the speculators shorting the yen? Yes, but only a few.
The real bag holders are the Japanese banks forced to reduce US debt holdings, the global markets where liquidity has sharply declined due to balance sheet reductions, and export companies holding dollar assets but afraid to convert back to their local currency.
Japan selling US debt to buy yen is equivalent to moving the selling pressure on US debt from Tokyo to New York; the US tacitly allows this operation, gaining short-term interest rate spread relief but sacrificing the long-term credit anchor of US debt. This "mutual aid" is essentially a liquidity swap—using short-term exchange rate stability to exchange for greater volatility flexibility in the future.
And what about the crypto market? As the "invisible tax" within the fiat system rises and central banks' policy space narrows, the safe-haven narrative of Bitcoin and stablecoins is quietly strengthened. The risk you see is yen volatility; the signal I understand is that sovereign credit is being repriced. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
Don't be fooled by the joint performance of Japan and the US. The seeds of the next storm are already buried in today's intervention. #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
The real risk is never in the candlestick chart you are watching but in the unseen layers of the balance sheet. #美日确认联合购汇 Is MicroStrategy also struggling? It sold another 1,638 BTC...
This time, Strategy sold 1,638 $BTC, cashing out $BTC 104.7 million, with an average selling price of $63,957. Compared to the 3,588 sold in early July, the scale is about 54% less.
The money from selling coins was not used to run away; $BTC 52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends, and $BTC 52.3 million was used to repurchase STRC.
In short, MicroStrategy is currently busy not with mindlessly buying more coins, but maintaining its financing system.
This sale accounts for only about 0.19% of the total holdings, and the company still holds 842,138 BTC, so it’s not yet a case of "struggling to hold on."
It used to be a permanent bull that only bought and never sold, but now it has started using BTC to handle cash needs. Selling once can be called financial arrangement; if it continues to sell consecutively, the situation changes.
Faith hasn’t collapsed for now, but the strategy has indeed changed.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise 1. Latest Market Overview (Closing on August 3 Eastern Time, early morning August 4 Beijing Time; U.S. stock market has not opened yet on August 4 Eastern Time)
- Ticker: SanDisk shturl.
- Closing Price: $1288.03, daily gain +6.03%, intraday volatility as high as 14% (deepest intraday drop 8%, followed by a deep V-shaped reversal)
- Intraday Range: Opened at $1159.84, low $1121.27, high $1316.45
- Volume: 14.7593 million shares, volume surge rebound, turnover rate 10.10%, intense capital competition
- Sector Environment: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed with a V-shaped gain, but storage sector shows significant divergence; only SanDisk and Micron gained, Western Digital and Seagate declined, indicating strong independent price action
2. Core Drivers of This Rally
1. Earnings Expectation Play: Q4 earnings report to be released on August 5 (Eastern Time), market consensus expects significant year-over-year revenue growth, institutions generally optimistic, capital positioned in advance
2. Oversold Short Covering: The stock has dropped over 44% from the June high of $2354, short-term panic selling pressure has been fully released, short covering plus bargain hunting funds driving the rebound
3. Macro Sentiment Improvement: Middle East geopolitical tensions easing, U.S. Treasury yields declining, U.S. tech large caps strengthening overall, growth sector capital returning
3. Key Price Levels to Watch (for observation only, not trading signals)
Resistance Levels
- Short-term first resistance: $1316 (yesterday’s intraday high)
- Strong resistance zone: $1380~$1400 (previous dense trading and lock-in area)
Support Levels
- Near-term support: $1260~$1270 (dense closing position area)
- Strong support: $1210 (previous trading day closing price, starting point of this rebound)
4. Market Observation Perspectives (not trading strategies)
1. Short-term Observation (Earnings Play)
- Positive: Volume surge with V-shaped reversal breaks continuous downtrend, bullish sentiment warming, institutional ratings mostly positive
- Biggest Risk: Earnings release may trigger profit-taking and pullback, expectations may be too high, even if earnings meet targets, a sharp sell-off is possible; lack of sector-wide rally raises doubts about sustainability of independent price action
- Focus: Whether the price can hold above $1300 at tomorrow’s open; if volume shrinks and price fails to rally, beware of pre-earnings profit-taking
2. Mid-term Observation (Holding period of several weeks)
- Single-day rebound does not confirm trend reversal; must wait for two core earnings data points: actual revenue/EPS and next quarter’s order capacity guidance
- Two possible outcomes:
- Earnings + guidance exceed expectations: wait for pullback to support levels before reassessing mid-term opportunities
- Earnings below expectations/guidance conservative: this rebound is just oversold correction, stock likely to return to a downtrend
- Industry logic: Storage cycle uptrend remains unchanged, but short-term price is fully driven by earnings expectations rather than fundamentals
3. Conservative and Prudent Approach (more suitable for ordinary investors)
- Earnings window volatility will spike sharply, making speculative play low in cost-effectiveness
- Best choice: wait for full earnings release on August 5, observe stock direction and institutional rating adjustments before deciding on subsequent moves, avoiding uncertainty from news
5. Potential Downside Risks
1. U.S. high-valuation tech stocks remain pressured by U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations; market sentiment reversal could drag individual stocks down
2. Storage sector is highly cyclical; if cloud providers slow AI capital expenditures, mid-to-long-term earnings logic will weaken
3. This rally relies on earnings expectations; if results fall short of aggressive market forecasts, gains will be quickly given back
4. Large short-term volatility makes leveraged trading prone to significant losses $ZEC 🛡️ The Privacy Coin Bitcoin + zk-SNARKs = Shielded Transactions 21M Supply | Decentralized | Real Use Case In a world of surveillance, privacy matters. NFA. DYOR. #ZEC #Zcash #Privacy #CryptoWhen $STRC was last at par exactly, Bitcoin was trading at slightly over $81k.
If we are to assume (based on today's move) that it will return to par after another potential tweak by Strategy next week, I don't see any reason why Bitcoin cannot go back to $81k and above.
There have been many negative narratives over the past 10 months, but in my opinion, the one recurring theme was the ridiculous attack on Saylor and Strategy.
With STRC back at par, sticky inflation still a major conversation in the markets, the underlying asset increasing in value, and a $4bn cash reserve in place, I think Strategy gets back to buying Bitcoin.
It may not be as aggressive as the first 4 or 5 months of the year. It may not in itself, numerically, be enough to move the market. But the sentiment boost, and subsequent narrative shift, may just be enough heading into September to kick start the next bull run.
Watch this space...Anytime $STRC has fallen off its $100 peg target $BTC has found a local low and rallied once its re-pegged back to their $100 stated amount per share.
It has taken $STRC a lot longer this time to get back to target price, but I do think the same thing will happen with $BTC once it gets there.🚨 STRATEGY’S BITCOIN FLYWHEEL MAY FINALLY BREAK TONIGHT!!!
$MSTR reports earnings tonight with:
• 843,775 BTC bought at an average price of $75,476
• STRC depegged to $88.5 versus its $100 target
• Three straight weeks without buying more BTC
• Strategy sold $544.5M of stock last week just to build cash reserves
$STRC was designed to trade near $100 through adjustable dividends.
The yield has already been raised to 12%, and $STRC still trades at a ~11% discount.
Strategy has now started buying STRC back, including $25 million at an average price of $86.52, allocating another $975 million for buybacks.
Sell $MSTR shares → dilute common holders → fund reserves and STRC support → buy less Bitcoin.
Tonight could expose the weakest balance sheet Strategy has faced in years.The opening bell hasn't even rung, and I've already mentally played out twenty moves of $FIL's endgame. It rose 4.11% in 24 hours, which sounds like a beautiful central pawn advance, but the board never declares victory just because a pawn moves forward. Bollinger Bands short-term position at 81%, mid-term at 102%—this isn't just standing at the upper edge, it's piercing through the thin paper of the upper band. RSI short-term 66.5, long-term 49.3—the short-term looks like an unstoppable war chariot, but the long-term is still hovering around the midline, showing a disjointed formation. This is the most typical "false lead" in the midgame: the opponent hasn't caught up yet, but the pawn line has already penetrated deep into enemy territory.
On my board, the red signal is already lit: SELL. A true grandmaster never clashes head-on when the opponent's pawn spear is sharpest, but instead sacrifices a pawn to lure the opponent into a narrow alley battle. $FIL now is like that overprotected elephant, seemingly occupying an open file but actually shrinking its own activity radius with every step. An 81% short-term position means it can still inch forward one or two steps, but the 102% mid-term position tells me: this roof can't hold a second person.
So my plan is not to chase the rise, but to set up a defensive line beneath the opponent's formation in advance. I won't make a move while others cheer; I wait for the price to reach my predicted landing spot—that's not an entry, that's a "double capture." Now at $0.75, there's a 4.1% buffer to my entry, which is $0.78. It looks counter-trend, but the fiercest attacks in chess often start with a seemingly disadvantageous pawn sacrifice.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.78 (current price +4.1%)
Take Profit 1: $0.70 (-6.8%)
Take Profit 2: $0.71 (-4.6%)
Stop Loss: $0.87 (+16.5%)
See, my Take Profit 1 is farther than Take Profit 2, just like two linked pawns in an endgame: first capturing the distant passed pawn, then turning back to take the nearby king. The stop loss is set at +16.5%, which is the deadliest breach on the open file; once broken, the entire king's fortress will irreversibly open. RSI short-term 66.5, just a few steps from the overbought line; long-term 49.3, indicating the larger cycle is still indecisive. Divergence across two timeframes is more convincing than any single-sided signal—this is exactly the moment when the midgame transitions to the endgame, and the leader is most prone to mistakes.
Bollinger Bands short-term 81%, mid-term 102%, every percentage point tells the same story: the bullish pawn line is too long, and reinforcements are cut off. A true player never chases fleeting local advantages; he has already started planning a counterattack on the other side where the opponent's formation is thickest. Now, the opponent has made a "soft move," exposing weaknesses fully in my sight.
I won't refuse this gift. #coinmovealert#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 SpaceX涨6%就安全了？后面才是重头戏
Last night $SPCX surged from around $105 to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%.
This bullish candle is quite strong, but it's still too early to call it a reversal.
Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real trouble lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will become eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, this corresponds to a market value of about $104.4 billion.
To be clear, unlocking shares is not a new issuance, nor does it mean these shares will definitely be sold. It won't increase the total share count out of thin air; it changes the supply of tradable shares in the market.
Currently, SpaceX's float is about 640 million shares, and this batch of shares to be unlocked exceeds the existing float. If all enter the market, the tradable supply could theoretically increase by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report.
SpaceX's financials are also interesting.
In 2025, revenue is $18.674 billion, up 33.2% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA reached $6.584 billion, and operating cash flow was $6.785 billion. Looking at these alone, it doesn't seem like a poorly performing company.
But on the other hand, the full-year net loss was $4.937 billion. Adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditures in 2025 have already exceeded $20.7 billion.
The money is mainly burned on Starship, the Starlink satellite network, and AI data centers.
Among them, the connectivity business where Starlink operates is actually quite profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, with a 2025 operating loss of $6.355 billion.
So tonight, don't just focus on whether revenue beats expectations.
More importantly, watch whether Starlink's profits can continue to grow, whether the burn rate of AI and Starship slows down, and whether management is willing to provide clearer forward guidance.
In short, SpaceX doesn't lack profitable businesses now; it's just that the speed of making money temporarily can't keep up with the speed of spending.
On the chart, $116–$120 is the first short-term resistance. If the earnings report is good but the stock can't hold this range, it means investors fear the unlocking more; if after the volume surge on August 6 it can still hold $116, then there are truly buyers willing to take on this supply.
Next support levels are $105, then $100. As for the IPO price of $135, it remains the area with the heaviest trapped positions for now.
The subsequent trading logic is actually simple: no matter how much the stock rises after tonight's close, it's just sentiment; the real answer is how much remains after the unlocking on Thursday.
Earnings tell the story; unlocking tests how many people are willing to put real money to believe in that story.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴