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📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.04 (Tuesday)
📌 Core Judgment
**Crude oil plunged, US manufacturing data was strong, and tech company earnings exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in risk assets.** However, the US manufacturing price index remains high, and expectations for Fed rate hikes have not disappeared, so this currently looks more like a risk appetite recovery rather than confirmation of a new full-scale rally.
🔥 Key Points Today
① Storage Industry Chain: Strong demand, but increased long-term supply risks
US manufacturing data indicates that storage chips and semiconductors are still in shortage and prices are still rising, showing that AI server demand has not collapsed.
Two important changes have appeared in the industry:
Sandisk and SK Hynix are promoting the high bandwidth flash (HBF) standard, which may expand NAND applications in AI inference;
Changxin Technology plans to continue expanding DRAM capacity, with the market preemptively pricing in supply pressure for 2027–2028.
My judgment: In the short term, the storage industry still benefits from AI demand and price increases, but in the long term, it is necessary to guard against overcapacity caused by simultaneous expansions from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin.
② SanDisk Earnings Report as a Key Validation for the Storage Sector
SanDisk will release its earnings report in the early morning of August 6 Beijing time. Focus on enterprise SSD demand, NAND prices, inventory status, and HBF commercialization progress.
If management continues to provide strong demand and price guidance, recent storage stock adjustments are more likely deleveraging; if inventory or demand weakens, the sector may continue to digest valuations.
③ AMD Earnings Tonight to Validate AI Hardware Demand
AMD will release its earnings report in the early morning of August 5 Beijing time. The market mainly focuses on AI accelerator card orders, MI350 shipments, and second-half data center revenue guidance.
If AMD raises AI revenue expectations, it will prove that demand is spreading from NVIDIA to other suppliers, which will also benefit HBM, DRAM, and the server storage industry chain.
④ Changxin Technology Short-Term Rebound, Long-Term Expansion Outlook
Changxin Technology rebounded to about 55 yuan in early trading. The current stock price is still influenced by the low float of new shares and storage sector heat, so short-term volatility will be relatively large.
Changxin's expansion will not immediately change storage prices this year but may affect the industry's supply pattern over the next two years. At this stage, it is more suitable to observe as a long-term competitive variable rather than chasing highs or judging industry reversals based on single-day price moves.
⑤ Simple Observation of BTC and HYPE
BTC has not fully followed the Nasdaq rebound, indicating that risk appetite in the crypto market is weaker than in US stocks. Short-term support is at 62,200–63,000 USD; only after stabilizing above 64,000 USD can it be considered strong.
HYPE is still weak around 52 USD; the long-term platform logic has not changed, but short-term chip pressure remains, so it is temporarily unsuitable for high-leverage bottom-fishing.
📅 Upcoming Focus
Early morning August 5: AMD earnings
August 5: US ADP employment, ISM services
Early morning August 6: SanDisk earnings
Evening August 7: US nonfarm payroll report
💡 My View
**The storage industry is currently not facing demand collapse but rather "near-term undersupply and long-term concerns about overcapacity due to expansion."** The upcoming AMD and SanDisk earnings will determine whether this recovery can continue. In the short term, you can continue to watch Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung, but it is better to wait for earnings confirmation and not immediately go heavy just because of large declines.
In summary: AI demand remains strong, but whether storage stocks can truly stabilize depends on whether earnings reports can prove that current high demand can be sustained. The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.23%, its highest level in nearly two decades. The last time it traded around this level was just before the 2007 financial crisis.
The biggest debate in the market isn't whether higher yields matter—it's whether this marks the peak or the beginning of a prolonged high-yield environment.
Bulls argue that if the US economy cools and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts strengthen, long-term yields could gradually move lower.
Bears see a different picture. They point to the expanding US fiscal deficit and massive Treasury issuance, arguing that investors will continue demanding higher returns to hold long-term government debt. If that's the case, yields could stay elevated for much longer.
The 30-year Treasury yield remains one of the world's most important pricing benchmarks. When it climbs above 5%, the effects ripple across global markets—pressuring stock valuations, raising borrowing costs, influencing gold prices, and reshaping the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
As long-term yields remain this high, every risk asset, including Bitcoin, faces a tougher environment for attracting capital.
$BTC $SNDK $HOME
#BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise #FedSplitGoesPublic The CLARITY Act has already secured two quite notable support figures, but the real crunch is the Senate procedural time.
In July 2025, the House passed H.R.3633 with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, with the affirmative votes accounting for about 68.7% of the valid votes. In May this year, the Senate Banking Committee approved the new version of the text with a 15 to 9 vote, a support rate of 62.5%.
At the full chamber voting stage, these proportions cannot be directly translated into a passing result.
According to Senate Rule 22, a motion to end a filibuster requires at least 16 senators to sign. Under normal procedure, after the motion is submitted, the vote can only take place in the next calendar day’s session; with all 100 seats filled, a three-fifths majority, i.e., 60 votes, is needed to pass. Even if the filibuster is successfully ended, the subsequent debate time can still reach 30 hours.
With currently 53 Republican senators, even if all support it, at least 7 bipartisan votes are still needed. Two Democrats in the Banking Committee voted in favor, but the committee’s 15 to 9 result is still a completely different political challenge from the full chamber’s 60 votes.
As of 20:16 Beijing time, about 8:16 Eastern US time, the Senate planned to convene at 10:00 that day, but the public agenda still did not list a motion to end debate on H.R.3633. If the ordinary motion is delayed until August 5 for submission, the earliest vote might be on August 7, leaving very little buffer time for subsequent review.
Even if the bill passes, the regulatory framework will not be implemented the next day. The current draft stipulates that regulatory agencies should generally complete rulemaking within one year after enactment, and the bill generally takes effect 360 days after enactment; provisions requiring supporting rules must wait until either the 360-day period expires or 60 days after the final rules are published, whichever is later.
Therefore, these 72 hours affect whether the US locks in a codified legal path, but actual compliance changes for exchanges, token issuers, market makers, and DeFi projects will still take about a year to cross.
The three most valuable signals now are very specific: whether the motion is formally submitted, whether 16 signatures are gathered, and whether the first procedural vote can reach 60 votes. If any of these are not completed, "about to pass" is just an early trading expectation.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 中东局势一夜转向，美国原油单日暴跌5.46%，道指怒涨三百点，纳指期货同步拉升，$QQQ涨了1.76%，$SPY涨了1.42%。这是一场标准的油落万物生，资金从商品市场夺路而逃，转身就扑进股市的怀抱。全球风险资产集体狂欢，气氛组就差直接宣布牛市回归。 但打开加密盘面，气氛瞬间尴尬。$BTC报63,459美元，振幅只有0.01%，$ETH更惨，直接阴跌1.33%，在1,858美元附近躺着。最应该跟着风险偏好起飞的大类资产，今天集体失声。黄金原地踏步只有0.05%，美元指数几乎没动，比特币连做个样子都懒得做。这不是没跟上，这是压根不想跟上。 表面看是脱钩，本质上是资金在做选择题。美股那边有财报季、有AI叙事、有降息预期撑腰，每一个都是吸引流动性的强磁场。加密这边呢，ETF流入虽然在，但增量资金显然不够把盘面推起来，$IBIT只涨了1.46%，说明机构情绪也是观望为主。今天表现最好的反而是VIX，掉到15.87，恐慌已经散了，但贪婪还没到位。 对交易员来说，这种背离行情最怕的就是自作多情。油价崩了，美股涨了，不代表比特币就欠你一根大阳线。别用股市的狂欢来给加密盘加戏，量能不够就是不够，趋势没SpaceX, valued at $1.5 trillion, $SPCX, announced its financial report today.
Here are 3 possible outcomes:
Bullish scenario:
Revenue exceeds $6.8 billion, Starlink surpasses $3.82 billion, and losses are significantly reduced.
Options imply the stock price could rise +10% to +15%, reaching approximately $126 to $132.
This would bring the $135 IPO price back into view.
Base scenario:
SpaceX meets expectations but continues heavy spending on AI and Starship.
With $104 billion of internal shares becoming available in two days, the stock price may also struggle to rise.
Bearish scenario:
Revenue misses expectations, losses remain near Q1 levels, or spending increases further.
A -10% to -15% move would push the stock price down to about $97 to $103, setting a new low.
At the current price, SpaceX is valued at about $1.5 trillion.
To become a $3 trillion company again, the stock price must double $SPCX Strategy's $STRC has now climbed back above $90.
That's a 24% recovery from the June lows.
But the bigger story is what it took to get here.
Strategy is no longer just buying Bitcoin and hoping for the best.
They're actively managing cash, buying back shares and even selling small amounts of $BTC when needed to strengthen the balance sheet.
The playbook has changed.On August 3rd, $SPCX once dropped intraday to a historic low of $104.83, but then miraculously reversed — pre-market it rose 1.3% to $116.03, with a 24-hour increase of 5.5%, rebounding 9.5% from the low point.
Why the rise? Two reasons:
1. Elon Musk personally "called the shot"
Yesterday, after SPCX fell to $104.83, an investor posted on X that the current trend "will be a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity." Elon Musk retweeted and responded: "I think so too." Those three words directly lifted the after-hours price.
2. Expectations heating up before the earnings report
After market close today, SPCX will release its first quarterly report since listing. The market expects Q2 revenue of $6.8 billion (up 45% quarter-over-quarter), with losses narrowing from $4.3 billion in Q1 to $2.1 billion. Deutsche Bank maintained a "buy" rating ahead of the earnings report with a target price of $255; Morgan Stanley even set a target price of $300.
Today's rebound is driven by the sentiment of "Elon Musk's call + earnings speculation," rather than a fundamental turnaround. The real test will come after the lock-up expiration on August 6 — whether the hundred-billion chips can be absorbed by the market is the key to determining SPCX's mid-term trend."Daily Market Watch | Asia Close and US Market Preview"
Today's Key Points: The 64K level is repeatedly contested, bearish momentum is weakening, making 64,000 the short-term battleground center. During the Asian session, prices oscillated narrowly between 63,200-63,900, currently at 63,850, just one step away from 64,000.
The Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability attacks continue, with the fourth wave resulting in a cumulative theft of approximately 1,816 BTC (about $114 million) involving 5,294 addresses. The market has largely absorbed this event without triggering new panic selling.
Asia Recap: Bulls and bears tug-of-war, 64K becomes short-term focus
During the Asian session, BTC fluctuated narrowly between 63,200-63,900, currently at 63,850. Bearish momentum continues to weaken, but bulls have yet to form an effective breakout. Trading volume has noticeably shrunk, with both sides awaiting a catalyst.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell about 0.7%, South Korea's KOSPI surged then retreated to drop about 1.1%, semiconductor index declined about 1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 weakened slightly, and the A-shares market was generally weak and volatile.
The fourth wave of Coldcard attacks continues to ferment; on Monday, 709 new addresses lost about 449 BTC. Galaxy Research has not yet identified the culprit, but the market has largely digested the event without causing new panic.
Hot Focus: Palantir earnings ignite AI sentiment, AMD takes the stage tonight
Palantir's after-hours earnings exceeded expectations across the board, with revenue of $1.94 billion (expected $1.81 billion), adjusted EPS of $0.41 (expected $0.35), and a significantly raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.15-8.16 billion. After-hours stock price surged 14%. This signals accelerated AI commercialization, greatly boosting tech stock sentiment.
Tonight's focus is AMD's after-hours earnings. Market expectations are revenue of $11.32 billion (up 47% YoY), EPS of $1.61 (up 235% YoY). Options market prices about 12.3% volatility. The market is truly watching for accelerated MI350 shipments, Helios rack system order scale (shipping starts in September), and whether Q3 revenue guidance can maintain above $11 billion. The data center business is the core engine, expected to exceed $6 billion in revenue.
The market is accustomed to a "beat and raise" rhythm; merely meeting expectations might trigger concerns of "good news already priced in."
AI security storm is simultaneously brewing. The White House today invited OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Anthropic—four major AI giants—for a closed-door meeting to discuss a voluntary government cybersecurity testing mechanism for advanced AI models, reflecting high US government concern over AI autonomous hacking capabilities.
US Pre-Market: Futures slightly stronger, focus on AMD
Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.4% boosted by Palantir earnings, Dow futures are also stronger. The market awaits AMD's earnings results while also watching June trade balance and factory orders data released tonight.
BTC current price is 63,850, just one step away from 64,000. If AMD's earnings beat expectations and drive the AI sector higher, BTC may leverage this momentum to break through 64K.
Tomorrow's Watch Points
1. AMD after-hours earnings (tonight), AI chip revenue is the biggest highlight; Q3 guidance will determine market direction. If better than expected, BTC may break 64K; if below expectations, 64K remains a ceiling.
2. White House AI meeting (today), four major AI giants discuss cybersecurity testing mechanisms behind closed doors.
3. Whether BTC can effectively break through 64K; today is the third test of 64K, if it holds this time, the significance differs from the previous two.
"Which side are you on today?"
BTC is approaching 64,000 again; tonight's AMD earnings are the key variable. What do you think:
A: AMD beats expectations, BTC breaks through 64,000 leveraging momentum
B: AMD meets expectations, BTC continues oscillating between 63-64K
C: AMD misses expectations, BTC pulls back to 62,500-63,000
I vote A first. Palantir has already proven AI commercialization is accelerating, and the probability of AMD beating expectations is not low.
The resistance at 64K requires greater momentum to break through, and AMD's earnings report is the most likely variable in the near term.
Which one will you choose? See you in the comments.Don't directly equate BTC popularity with buying pressure: This round of data shows a clear slowdown
Putting BTC's short-window numbers together with the all-day average gives a much more complete picture than just looking at popularity rankings.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 44 mentions of BTC in one hour at 16:00 on August 4 (China time), including 41 on X and 3 in news; the total for 24 hours was 1927 mentions.
Converted, the latest hour is 0.55 times the long-window hourly average, meaning about 45% lower than the 24-hour hourly average. This ratio only indicates whether discussion is heating up; it does not indicate increased buying pressure. Writing it directly as a breakout signal is an unsupported inference beyond the data.
Tone structure is another line. In one hour, bullish is 34%, bearish 18%, neutral about 48%, classified as "slightly bullish dominant"; over 24 hours, bullish is 22%, bearish 33%. The difference between short and long windows is the part worth tracking next.
Regarding sources, BTC is currently mainly driven by X. When a message is widely retweeted, mentions increase quickly, but independent information may not increase proportionally. Popularity rankings cannot tell us if each text comes from different participants, nor do they weight by account influence or capital scale.
Long-window sources can be treated as background: BTC had 1651 mentions on X and 276 in news over 24 hours. If the one-hour source ratio suddenly deviates significantly, it may be that new information first exploded on a certain channel, or simply that news updates haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, so we still need to wait for the original announcement or the next round of source distribution confirmation.
I treat bullish and bearish as a thermometer on the same scale, not as precise votes. There is a lot of neutral content, usually just people watching without forming a consensus direction; increased bearishness may also mean more risk discussion, not that every poster has actually established short positions.
The next step is to see if spot trading expands, whether perpetual contract funding rates and open interest move in the same direction, and whether liquidations concentrate. These three data sets answer real trading participation and leverage structure, which cannot be replaced by community mention volume. If there are macro or industry events, the official original text should be checked directly.
How to know if this time was wrong? If the next round of BTC mention speed returns near the mean and the bullish-bearish gap narrows, this change was probably just short-window noise. Conversely, if speed increases for two consecutive rounds, news sources expand, and spot and derivatives trading also increase simultaneously, it is more likely that the market main trend is forming.
Daily differences must also be retained. Asian early sessions, US trading hours, and periods near major announcements naturally have different community activity; a single 0.55 times figure is not suitable for annualization, nor should it be forcibly compared with raw counts from another platform. Continuous snapshots are more useful than a single nice number.
So I record BTC as "discussion clearly slowing, short-window tone slightly bullish dominant." The official ranking stops here, with no proof that capital is betting in the same direction. If the next round improves source diversity and market trading together, then increasing confidence in judgment is not too late.Opening the contract gain leaderboard left me stunned: $AAOI surged nearly 24%, and $KORU, $SNXX also jumped 16%~18%. The leaderboard is dominated entirely by US stocks and TradFi-linked assets, while native altcoins remain silent. Is this reasonable? 🤔
The current capital logic is very real. Native altcoins in the crypto market lack new stories and liquidity, so capital can't find reservoirs within the circle; in contrast, US stocks driven by macro and earnings season sentiment see capital simply using tokenized contracts on exchanges to capture the premium of US stock leverage.
This phenomenon of "trading US stocks on crypto exchanges" essentially reflects the helpless choice of scarce incremental funds and the risk-averse and strategic play of existing funds. US stock-linked assets of such large scale still pulling a 20% gain is basically a dimensionality reduction strike for the capital side.
Altcoins keep declining daily, making no profit and causing constant anxiety—it's really tough.
Are you still stubbornly holding onto altcoins now, or have you started turning to these US stock-linked contracts?
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 Shocking! All are money-making opportunities, missing out would really be a loss! Regarding the "US-Japan confirmed joint currency purchase" (i.e., joint intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen/suppress the dollar), this is a major macro event causing extremely profound disruption to global liquidity.
1. Core signal: Large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades
The US-Japan joint action means the one-sided upward trend of USD/JPY is completely over.
* Unwinding pressure: Global investors previously borrowed low-interest yen to invest in BTC, AI chip stocks (such as NVIDIA), and SPCX (SpaceX).
* Chain reaction: As the yen surges sharply, borrowing costs soar, forcing institutions to sell risk assets to repay yen positions. This creates huge passive selling pressure on BTC and the Nasdaq.
2. Impact on the crypto market (BTC/ETH): fall first, then rise
* Short-term shock (bearish): Joint intervention usually comes with expectations of liquidity tightening. If USD/JPY suddenly breaks below the 140 level, BTC may retest support at $60,000 or even $58,500 due to risk-off sentiment and carry trade unwinding.
* Medium-term logic (bullish): Joint intervention marks a substantial reversal of the "strong dollar" policy.
* US Dollar Index (DXY) peak: US participation in currency purchases implies the Fed acknowledges that an overly strong dollar has hurt the global economy. A decline in DXY is usually a leading signal for BTC to start a long bull run.
* Global liquidity rebalancing: After pressure release, the purchasing power of non-US currencies (yen, euro, RMB) rebounds, benefiting the global pricing of crypto assets.
3. Quantitative impact on macro assets
* US Treasury yields: To buy yen, the Bank of Japan may need to reduce some US Treasury holdings, which will temporarily push up US Treasury yields (10-year may return above 4.1%), causing short-term pressure on tech stock valuations.
* AI application sector (PLTR/HYPE): Affected by liquidity contraction, volatility of high beta application tokens will increase. It is recommended to reduce leverage before the yen exchange rate stabilizes.
4. Key quantitative observation points
* USD/JPY key line: Watch support near 138.5. If this breaks, it indicates intervention strength exceeded expectations, and global risk assets will face a "Black Friday" style severe shakeout.
* BTC correlation: Currently, BTC’s negative correlation with the yen exchange rate has significantly increased. For every 1% appreciation of the yen, BTC faces about 1.5% - 2% short-term pullback pressure.
5. Recommendations
"Beware of volatility, wait for the exchange rate to stabilize before rebounding."
* Strategy: The initial 24-48 hours of joint intervention are usually the most volatile phase. It is recommended to temporarily close long positions above $62,000.
* Opportunity: When USD/JPY consolidates at a low level and yen short positions are cleared, the weakening dollar dividend will directly benefit BTC and ETH. This is an excellent right-side long-term entry point.
Risk warning: Joint intervention can easily trigger a "long liquidation cascade" in the forex market. Please strictly enforce a 5%-8% mandatory stop loss to prevent extreme spikes caused by sudden liquidity evaporation. The above analysis is for reference only.
#美日确认联合购汇 $BTC $ETH $XRP At 4 a.m., watching the market, I suddenly remembered that night of liquidation—SanDisk's big bearish candlestick was like a knife, cutting through all my illusions. Why do simulators always make money, but when real money arrives, their hands shake like they just learned to walk? I knew too many people, and even when I chose the right direction, I died in the last hour before dawn. There is no fear in the simulator; the numbers are fake, and you don't feel bad about it at all. With real money in, my mind was filled with mortgages, living expenses, and baby formula money. In the midst of hesitation, the market had already gone back and forth three times. This time I lost $1,800, four months' worth of private money. But what truly matters is not how much I lost, but that I finally admit: stop-loss is more important than profit. The Korean stock market plunged 5% today, with fierce bullish and bearish standoffs in the storage sector. Trump Media's on-chain transfer of 2,628 BTC remains unclear. On the surface, the market is speculating on storage, but in reality, it is repricing risk appetite. Looking at cross-market linkages, the sharp drop in Korean stocks will first be transmitted to Asian risk assets. BTC, as a global liquidity barometer, faces short-term pressure but maintains its medium-term structure. ETH is relatively resilient because funds are withdrawing from high-volatility altcoins and flowing back into mainstream coins for safe haven. - Bullish logic: If Trump's on-chain transfers are interpreted as a signal to build positions, BTC will experience a wave of sentiment recovery; The probability of an oversold rebound in Korean stocks is high, driving up risk appetite in Asia. - Bearish risk: If the long-bear standoff in the storage sector emerges with a winner, the loser may trigger a chain liquidation; If ETH's safe-haven nature fails, funds may be directly withdrawn from the entire crypto market. I stayUS and Korean leveraged positions are simultaneously under pressure, signaling a short-term contraction in risk appetite. If high Beta targets in both US and Korean stocks enter a pullback simultaneously, can the crypto market still maintain an independent trend? The original record is a contract trading log with a principal of 1000U; the net value on the eighth day is 1010U. Current positions are concentrated in three sets of grid contracts: SanDisk contract grid, price range 1000 to 1800, entry reference price 1380, current price 1158, unrealized loss 25%, loss 38U, take-profit target set at 1720; SK Hynix contract grid, range 850 to 1650, entry price 1254, current price 1050, unrealized loss 26%, loss 80U, take-profit target 1620; KORU contract grid, range 9 to 29, entry price 15, current price 14.5, unrealized gain 25%, profit 12U, take-profit target 26. Additionally, the ETH short position was entered at 1868 and closed at 1867, breaking even, due to increased uncertainty during the session—rising to 1898 in the morning and falling back in the afternoon, the trader chose to exit and wait. This log appears to be a personal operation record but reveals two market structure signals behind it. First, the trader actively abandoned directional ETH positions and instead concentrated positions in tokenized contracts of US and Korean stocks, indicating insufficient short-term volatility or trend certainty in crypto native assets, with funds shifting toward high Beta targets in traditional stock markets. Second, against the backdrop of a 5% plunge in Korean stocks, SK Hynix and KOR#US-Iran Negotiations to Begin
US-Iran negotiations suddenly hit the market, is this geopolitical bomb really about to be defused?
Just finished reading the news, Trump pulled another big reversal.
A couple of days ago, he was talking about launching the "largest strike since World War II" against Iran, then suddenly announced the cancellation and said negotiations are planned for this afternoon. This turnaround is faster than a candlestick wick.
However, Iran has not officially responded yet, only revealing discussions with Oman about a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, and the military alert has not been lifted.
Israel is even more awkward; senior officials only found out about the strike cancellation by checking Trump's social media. An Israeli official bluntly said: "Feels like we've been abandoned by our ally."
Back to the market.
The geopolitical situation cooling down is definitely positive for risk assets. As long as progress is made on the Strait issue, pressure on the energy supply chain will ease, risk-off sentiment will fade, and BTC has a chance to catch a rebound.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 63100, down 1.32% intraday. This level already shows signs of stabilization; with follow-up news and buying support, pulling a few bullish candles won’t be difficult.
Mid-term focus remains on the negotiation results. The agreement framework looks broad: "open the strait + eliminate nuclear threat," but Iran demands UN guarantees. The US previously launched surprise attacks during negotiations, so trust between both sides has long been lost; this hurdle won’t be easy to overcome.
Currently, bullish factors are accumulating, watch for stabilization around 63100 first. If negotiations make substantial progress, shorts will have to retreat.
But don’t go all in on positions; Trump could flip at any time, and Israel may not be willing to be sidelined.
This kind of market fears hesitation the most; by the time everyone reacts, it might already be a big bullish candle.The CLARITY Act has once again become a hot topic, but don't treat the odds as a schedule just yet. In a public X discussion, Kava relayed that the market pricing is about 39%, focusing on whether the process can be initiated before the recess; this signal indicates strong sentiment but does not mean the bill is already scheduled for a vote.
I checked the official Senate records: on August 4, the Senate is scheduled to meet at 10 a.m., and the official On the Floor page currently shows the next vote as pending; the official annual calendar lists August 10 to September 11 as the state work period. In other words, the window is narrowing, but "vote scheduled" and "will pass this year" have not yet been confirmed by official records.
My judgment: what’s more worth watching now is not the single 39% point, but three things—whether a formal floor schedule appears, whether the disagreements over stablecoin yields and ethics clauses can be resolved, and whether enough bipartisan votes can be secured. The odds only reflect current participant pricing and cannot replace the agenda, the text, or the voting outcome.#Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours up 13%, brothers, US AI stocks are crazy again. The attitude of traditional funds in this wave is very clear: as long as AI can make money, high valuation is not a problem. Mapping this to the crypto world, regardless of whether BTC is sideways or not, the AI sector is currently the strongest logic. Today, we break down the market into four layers according to risk preference to see clearly where the money is flowing.
[Layered Analysis]
First layer: Core assets, the total switch of funds. $BTC 105000, $ETH 3200. BTC is still the global liquidity master switch; standing above 105000 indicates big money hasn't left. ETH follows but with moderate elasticity; DeFi and L2 narratives are a bit weak. Hold core assets firmly; don't use short-term thinking for long-term positions.
Second layer: AI narrative, the tightest capital cluster. $TAO $FET $RNDR. Palantir's performance directly ignited the AI profit effect; $TAO rose 8% in one day breaking previous highs, $FET led with +12%, $RNDR followed with +6%. The logic is simple: traditional funds won't directly buy small-cap AI coins, but the overflow of sentiment is enough to push a round of rally. The cluster stays intact, the trend continues.
Third layer: RWA compliance direction, traditional capital's trial path. $ONDO $CFG. $ONDO rose moderately, $CFG is still flat. RWA is a slow logic, suitable for laying in wait, not chasing rallies. Traditional institutions want licenses and compliance; their time cost is much higher than retail investors, don't expect overnight riches.
Fourth layer: Meme sentiment, rebounds during retreat are just escapes. $DOGE $PEPE $WIF. Today DOGE -2%, PEPE -5%, WIF -8%. Meme is an emotion amplifier; when the tide recedes, you know who's swimming naked. Reduce rebounds in hand, don't talk faith with it.
[Core Market Data]
$BTC 105000 / +2.1% / 45B
$ETH 3200 / +1.5% / 22B
$SOL 180 / +3.2% / 6B
$TAO 520 / +8.0% / 1.2B
$FET 2.10 / +12% / 800M
$RNDR 6.50 / +6.0% / 500M
$ONDO 1.80 / +3.0% / 300M
$DOGE 0.22 / -2.0% / 1.5B
$PEPE 0.000012 / -5.0% / 600M
$WIF 1.20 / -8.0% / 400M
Commentary: Funds clearly favor AI, BTC stabilizes the market, Meme is bleeding. $SOL as the leading public chain has a passable trend but is not leading the rally.
[Capital Flow]
🟢 Funds heavily flowing in: $TAO $FET $RNDR $BTC
👀 On watchlist: $ONDO $CFG $SOL
🔴 Weak trend, no participation for now: $DOGE $PEPE $WIF
🫥 Other tracked targets: $LINK $UNI $AAVE
[Operation Suggestions]
Focus on $TAO. Buy on dips at 500-510 USD, stop loss at 480, first target 560, second target 580. Logic: AI sector resonance, volume expansion, right-side confirmation. If volume breaks below 480, it means funds are retreating, exit unconditionally short-term. Position size should not exceed 30%, keep bullets for volatility.
[Risk Warning]
The biggest risk is Palantir's positive news being priced in + US earnings week volatility. Once AI sentiment reverses, crypto AI coins fall harder than traditional stocks. Also, if BTC falls below 102000, overall risk appetite will shrink. Avoid high leverage on contracts, don't hold losing positions.
Make certain money, not speculative money.
1. $BTC $ETH $USDT $BNB $SOL $XRP $USDC $ADA $DOGE $TRX $LINK $DOT $MATIC $LTC $BCH $UNI $AVAX $XLM $ATOM $FIL $ICP $AAVE $ALGO $ETC $XTZ $EOS $THETA $NEO $CRO $XMR $VET $BTT $FLOW $EGLD $MANA $SAND $ENJ $CHZ $ZIL $KAVA $STX $ROSE $TIA $SEI $ORDI $SUI $APT $ARB $OP $INJ $TON $NEAR $RNDR $FET $TAO $ONDO $CFG $PEPE $WIF $SHIB $FLOKI $BONK $GALA $LDO $RUNE $FTM $MKR $QNT $AXS $CRV $COMP $SUSHI $YFI $GRT $SNX $DASH $ZEC $XEC $TUSD $PAXG $PAXG
#Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours up 13% $SOL
##Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours up 13% #AI narrative #Capital Flow #Trading Strategy$AVAX Avalanche RWA narrative picked up by funds again
AVAX is rising against the trend today. As discussed before, the core label of the Avalanche public chain is RWA tokenization of real-world assets.
The project itself has a subnet modular architecture, attracting many traditional enterprises and institutions to deploy their businesses. Institutional resources are its biggest trump card.
Why is it rising this time? The market is starting to hype real-world assets on-chain again. Compared to Ethereum's high gas fees, AVAX's fees are cheap, making it very suitable for real-world project implementation. Plus, after a long period of decline, its valuation is not high, so funds are switching between highs and lows.
To see a bigger rally, we need official announcements of large traditional enterprise partnerships and large-scale subnet business deployments.
The downside is also realistic: the public chain sector is very competitive, with SOL and SUI competing for traffic. For now, it can only be considered a valuation recovery; without major news, it's hard to see an independent bull market. A swing trading approach is more appropriate.$BTC bearish bias this week
Comparing the current price action this week to the previous 51 bearish weeks of history
In case of a bearish week this is what the distributions look like
- 50% of bearish weeks would reach $65,000
Preferably form the high of the week below the top of the green box
So far still behaving like a week that could end up closing bearish despite taking out the weekly high yesterday
Now patiently waiting for price action to give me a bearish trigger around this area to execute shorts$BTC #BitMineTopETHStaker $ARB When you dig deeper into this matter, it actually reflects the issue I mentioned earlier in the tweet about L2s: the power law is disproportionately allocating the entire sector's value to a very small number of players.
$ARB's TVL is currently about $1.24 billion, still ranking among the top in L2s, and its fundamental data isn't bad, but the token price has still dropped like this, indicating a clear disconnect in this sector right now—the on-chain locked value and the market pricing of the governance token have decoupled.
I think the reason is not complicated. As Base dominates by leveraging Coinbase's user traffic, and as more platforms choose to build their own L2s instead of integrating with general-purpose infrastructures like Arbitrum, the core narrative of governance tokens like ARB has shifted from "I am the first tier of Ethereum scaling" to "I am just one of many options." Once the narrative is diluted, the valuation logic becomes hard to sustain, even if the on-chain data itself is still decent.
This is also why I don't quite agree with concluding undervaluation simply by looking at TVL or user numbers. For governance tokens to regain recognition from capital, it depends not on attractive fundamental numbers but on whether they can find an irreplaceable position again in this increasingly fragmented L2 landscape. This is exactly what ARB is currently lacking. $COIN #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% U.S. stocks hit new highs, but the crypto market is "silent": BTC stuck at 63,000, who's really bleeding in this decoupling?
On the night of August 3rd, U.S. stocks put on a show for traditional capital again: Dow Jones up 1.32%, S&P 500 up 1.48%, Nasdaq up 2.1%, with Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all surging, tech stocks partying like a runaway train.
At the same time, the crypto market seemed to have its plug pulled—
• BTC: Narrow fluctuations around $63,376, only a slight 0.19% increase in 24h;
• ETH: Dropped back to $1,851, down 1.12% in 24h;
• Total liquidations across the network: $242 million, long and short positions both hit, 64,577 people liquidated.
Oil prices plunged 7%, U.S. Treasury yields declined, geopolitical risks eased—these "positive" factors that should have fed risk assets were completely ignored by the crypto market this time.
So where did the money go? In short: AI and U.S. stocks are siphoning liquidity, while crypto is bleeding internally.
1) AI earnings delivery pulled away crypto’s "high Beta funds"
This round of U.S. stock gains isn’t a liquidity-driven bull market, it’s an AI leader earnings bull market: Palantir’s U.S. commercial revenue up 149% YoY, Amazon’s market cap broke $3 trillion, capital is willing to pay a premium for "real cash flow."
BTC has no adjusted profits, no dividends, no discounted cash flow; in a "high interest rate + better alternatives" environment, institutions are the first to reduce exposure. Wintermute pointed out earlier: this isn’t bad news for crypto, it’s an extreme selective allocation within risk assets—AI wins, crypto loses.
2) Bitcoin ETFs no longer support the price, instead becoming selling pressure outlets
On August 3rd, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shifted from about $498.5 million inflow the previous day to net outflows; IBIT, FBTC, GBTC are all withdrawing.
Earlier, from mid-May to early June, there were 11 consecutive withdrawals totaling $3.5 billion, shattering the narrative of "ETF permanent buy support"—institutions now treat BTC as a high-volatility Macro Beta tool, not a long-term holding.
3) Strategy’s BTC sales + Coldcard theft deal double blows to internal trust
• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 1,638 BTC from 7/27 to 8/2, cashing out about $104.7 million to pay dividends and buybacks, not to buy more BTC—shattering the "Never Sell" narrative;
• Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability exploited with AI-assisted attacks, losses expanded to about $89 million / 1,367 BTC, affecting over 4,500 addresses, damaging the myth of "self-custody is absolutely safe."
These two events combined make retail investors hesitant to buy, whales only stake without pushing prices, so the rebound naturally lacks strength.
4) Regulatory catalyst absent, CLARITY Act delayed
The market originally bet that the CLARITY Act would provide a clear framework before August and bring institutional inflows; now it’s not on the Senate agenda, and with August recess, the chance of passing this year has sharply dropped.
Without new money coming in, when old money withdraws, it’s a slow decline, not a deep V.
Next, just watch these 3 signals:
• BTC $62,600: August 3rd low, breaking this looks toward $61,900 (CME gap lower edge);
• $64,500–65,000: Only regaining this range means short-term buyers are back;
• Whether spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to turn positive: more important than any KOL’s calls. Saylor stepped in to clarify: "Never sell" is advice I give to savers, not a company policy.
I haven't touched a single $BTC in my personal wallet.
As for Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), it's a publicly listed company, not his personal pocket. The 2020 filings already stated: to manage capital structure, the company may buy or sell $BTC. This time, selling 1,638 $BTC to replenish USD reserves and pay STRC dividends follows company logic, not self-contradiction.
In summary: Strategy means savers cannot sell. Only the company can sell. #ISM Hits Four-Year High, US Treasury Yields Fall
I'm Cige. The ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.6, a four-year high, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 67.2%. Although the data clearly supports a rate hike, long-term yields are falling instead: 10-year futures rose 13 ticks, 30-year futures rose 22 ticks. The data is rising while yields are falling—this contradictory signal indicates the market is pricing in a different scenario.
What the ISM High Means
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July, above the expected 54.0, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion and the highest since May 2022. The new orders index rose to 59.3, production index to 58.2, and employment index rebounded to 52.4. The data confirms the US real economy remains strong, pushing recession narratives aside for now.
Why Yields Are Falling Instead of Rising
With the US and Iran back at the negotiating table, oil prices dropped over 7% in a single day. The 10-year Treasury futures rose 13 ticks, and 30-year futures rose 22 ticks. The long bond market is pricing in expectations of easing inflation due to geopolitical détente, rather than rate hike expectations from the ISM data. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly called for the Fed to expand liquidity tools to support the yen, which if implemented could ease Japan's selling pressure on US Treasuries.
Core Contradiction
The ISM Manufacturing PMI confirms the economy is overheating, with a 67.2% chance of a September rate hike betting on continued Fed tightening. However, the sharp drop in oil prices and geopolitical easing are lowering inflation expectations. Upward pressure from economic fundamentals and downward pull from geopolitical factors coexist. The direction for the 30-year yield around the 5.3% level remains undecided.
Impact on SanDisk
SanDisk surged to 1360 today, reaching near 1360 at its peak, up over 6% intraday, challenging the dense resistance zone between 1360 and 1410. The high interest rate environment suppresses tech stock valuations, with the storage sector as a high-beta group taking the brunt. ISM data supporting high rates is a medium-term positive for shorts. But the oil price plunge and falling long-term yields provide short-term support for tech stocks.
The 1360 to 1410 range is a dense resistance zone. At this level, the key is to watch if the price can hold rather than chasing a breakout. For those holding positions, move stop losses up to 1410; observe volume between 1380 and 1400—low volume at resistance indicates effective pressure, while high volume breakout means exit. For shorts, wait for resistance signals between 1380 and 1400 before entering, stop loss at 1430, target 1300 to 1320. For longs, consider entering on a pullback to 1300 to 1320; do not chase at 1360.
Bottom Line
Do not chase longs during a big rally. A rebound is an opportunity to adjust positions and wait, not a reason to chase. Patience is more important than action until the direction changes.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Gate.io Temporary Worker Version
Gate's official stance continues to claim that Robin, who liaises with our ALD community, is an impersonator and a scammer. Here are several core questions that cannot be avoided; please respond directly:
1. If Robin is merely an external scammer and not a Gate staff member, an unauthorized impersonator, how does he have the authority to complete the entire Gate Alpha token listing process and successfully list the ALD token on the platform? Gate's listing process involves multiple internal approval layers and cannot be operated privately by outsiders. If an outsider can impersonate staff and complete token listings at will, does this prove that Gate's internal permission management is completely out of control, allowing anyone to impersonate staff and lead project listings?
2. We paid the corresponding USDT and ALD for the listing in full as required by the liaison. If Robin is a personal fraudster, why did the funds he directed us to transfer ultimately flow into the Gate system, and why was the token listed on schedule? Ordinary scammers aim to privately seize funds; however, in this case, after the funds were delivered, the token was successfully listed on the platform, which completely contradicts the typical scammer modus operandi.
3. Gate cannot simply unilaterally void the listing agreement by labeling the liaison as a scammer. The token's successful listing on Gate Alpha is an objective and established fact; the trading activity and fulfillment of obligations actually occurred. Gate cannot enjoy the benefits brought by the project party's payment while refusing to fulfill all contractual obligations on the grounds of "personnel impersonation."
4. We hope Gate publicly discloses the complete approval chain and internal staff involved in the ALD listing on Gate Alpha. If Robin has no official authorization, please explain: how did an external impersonator bypass all internal risk controls and approvals to complete the entire listing process? Does this imply a major vulnerability in Gate Alpha's listing channel, exposing all project parties to the risk of being misled by fake personnel?Watch closely, my right hand is gracefully withdrawing the high-leverage prop curtain worth 12 trillion KRW from the front of the stage, while you spectators are still fixated on the illusory trump card in my left hand painted with "2030 Semiconductor Supercycle." 🎩🕊️🃏
In the world of magic, the top-level deception is never about how fast the hands move, but how a seemingly fair rule change is used to conceal the silent activation of backstage mechanisms. The Korean regulators raised the margin threshold for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW in one go—look, this isn’t about risk prevention; it’s the organizer forcibly erecting a higher metal fence to squeeze out retail investors holding tiny stakes who were gambling in the core show.
Look at this astonishing visual distortion! The trading volume of 16 leveraged and inverse ETFs linked to Samsung and SK Hynix plummeted 90% in just four days, shrinking from 12.4 trillion to 1.24 trillion. A full 90% of liquidity evaporated right before tens of thousands of eyes in the arena. Did it really disappear? Fool, that was just the dealer retrieving fake chips secretly stashed in the prop box’s hidden compartment.
Now look at the bloody death match on the KOSPI main board: first, a consecutive three-day plunge of 18% triggered panic screams across the floor, then on July 31 came a record-breaking 17.91% single-day surge, followed by a light 5.12% pullback. This is called "visual induction and forced card play." The house continuously changes the shuffling rhythm between left and right hands in a very short time, making your retinal afterimages unable to keep up with the real trajectory of capital flow. When you’re dizzy and confused by the wild ups and downs, you think you’ve caught the rebound chips, but actually, you’ve just taken their discarded junk cards they’re eager to offload.
They’ve laid out the grand narrative of the "storage chip supercycle singing red all the way to 2030," with spotlights glaring dazzlingly. But when the high-leverage smoke and mirrors are forcibly removed, what’s revealed is the real demand of genuine gold and silver, or the desperate sell-off of naked swimmers?
Don’t foolishly stare at the Seoul stage anymore; the trick has long since shifted its ground in the shadows. The US stock Token $XCOIN is generating a strange undercurrent linked to this market volatility. When traditional theater’s leverage players are forcibly cleared out, the ghost of liquidity flows through secret passages toward freer mirror betting platforms like $XCOIN.
The climax of the trick is never at center stage, but in when the audience realizes their pockets have been emptied. The trump card is about to be revealed, watch closely, don’t blink.
#KoreaETFVolDown90 A piece of news easily overlooked by the crypto community: the Boeing 737 Max 7 has finally received FAA certification, and its stock price immediately rose by 5.6%. After nearly a decade of certification delays and the shadow of two crashes, it has finally landed — this is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in, the boot drops." The same applies to our industry: when a long-awaited regulatory or event boot finally drops, it often marks not the start of risk, but a turning point in sentiment. When looking at event-driven moves, don’t just look at the direction; consider how much of the expectation has been fulfilled. Among those boots still hanging over $BTC , which one do you think will drop soon? Let’s wait and see. Profit and loss share the same source; the method that leads to success in a bull market may precisely be the reason for failure in the next cycle.
I hope everyone deeply reflects on this sentence—I learned this the hard way!
At the beginning of 2021, I spent tens of thousands of dollars buying a dozen or so new Binance coins. By April or May, most had risen by ten to twenty times. This trade ultimately earned me $600,000. In 2024, I tried to replicate this process, converting 10 BTC entirely into altcoins, but after a year, I only got back 1 BTC—losing like a fool!
Many times, success is not reproducible. Yet in life, people always want to listen to the experiences of successful people, to hear their impressive stories. When others make 100x gains, they want to copy and make 100x too. In reality, when you follow their trades, you are most often the one losing.
Why? Because all attempts to simply replicate success usually end in failure. Hundredfold victories mostly depend on luck and timing—often even the original winner can’t replicate it, let alone you!$ETH Is in a bullish market structure since June but has been failing to push higher.
It has been stuck between $1850-$1950 for the past few weeks.
So keep an eye out for a break of either of those levels.
Breaking $1950 -> $2100
Breaking $1850 -> $1750
Both $1750 and $2100 are important high timeframe levels to watch.$ETH #PalantirBeatAndRaise Focus on BTC, but popularity does not equal bullishness: Breaking down BTC, ETH, SOL
There is also a timing issue here. The 24-hour average mixes active periods in Asia, Europe, and the US; a recent one-hour spike or dip does not necessarily represent a new event. At least observe one or two more consecutive snapshots to confirm if mention speed and sentiment differences persist before upgrading a short-term fluctuation to a mainline judgment.
To truly judge whether this heat can be traded, spot trading volume, perpetual contract funding rates, open interest, and on-chain activity must be added. Attention, sentiment, and independent market data need to corroborate each other for a more solid judgment; missing one layer requires maintaining more uncertainty.
What is the easiest factor to overturn the current judgment? If the next hour's ranking, sentiment, and source structure all reverse simultaneously, this round is just a brief peak; if rankings hold, news sources increase, and market trading follows, it indicates attention may be settling. Clearly stating invalidation conditions is more useful than retroactively explaining every fluctuation.
What can be confirmed now: BTC receives the most attention, SOL's bullish-bearish difference ranks relatively ahead among the three, and the discussion speeds of the three assets are not synchronized. This is a market attention snapshot, not a directional prophecy. If the next round of data changes, the judgment should change accordingly.Focus on BTC, but popularity does not equal bullishness: Breaking down BTC, ETH, SOL
The most useful aspect of this snapshot is not guessing the price, but seeing where attention is concentrated.
OKX Onchain OS's official ranking updated at 04:00 on August 4 (China time) shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 238, 52, and 24 times respectively in the past hour. These numbers measure discussion density; they do not include trading volume, capital flow, or account holdings.
BTC's mention volume ranks first, with a short-window speed 4.47 times the 24-hour hourly average, classified as "significantly accelerated." In terms of sentiment, 13% are bullish, 28% bearish, and about 59% neutral, so leading heat and directional consensus are not the same thing.
The other two assets each have their own rhythm. BTC is significantly accelerated with a slight bearish bias; ETH is significantly accelerated with a clear bullish bias; SOL is significantly accelerated with a clear bullish bias. Considering all three states together gives a market picture closer to reality than just picking the highest percentage.
If we must compare sentiment, SOL has the highest bullish minus bearish difference, currently classified as "clearly bullish dominant." But don't jump to conclusions: when mention speed does not rise simultaneously, it only means existing discussions lean toward one side, not that more people are rapidly forming the same view. Conversely, accelerated mentions with rising bearish proportion may simply indicate a risk event attracting more attention.
The source structure is also worth noting. BTC's one-hour content is mainly driven by X, ETH is primarily X with news as a supplement, and SOL is mainly driven by X. X spreads quickly, capturing market attention early and is more easily forwarded, quoted, and amplified by slogans; news is slower and still requires verification from project teams, regulators, or exchange original announcements. It's indeed a bit strange! In the past two days, long-term holders (LTH) have suddenly moved a large amount of chips.
For two consecutive days, over 65,000 BTC have been moved (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), causing a significant drop in LTH net holdings.
As shown in Figure 2, LTH net holdings started to deviate from the previously continuous upward trend since May and have been "stagnant" until July.
This is a very rare phenomenon in the past year.
Nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges. For example, Trump's publicly listed company transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this.
As for the rest of the net reduction in LTH holdings, where they went and for what purpose, we do not know.
Could it be that they know something and chose to hedge early?
Regarding possible macro risks, especially those affecting BTC, here are the ones I can think of:
1⃣ The possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This time, the vote was split 9:3, the most dissenting votes since September 2016.
2⃣ Middle East conflicts and oil prices are the biggest variables for inflation and are upstream factors of point 1.
3⃣ The US stock market AI sector valuation is highly concentrated, and capital expenditures increasingly rely on debt and private credit financing. If revenue falls short of expectations and financing costs rise, it could trigger systemic deleveraging.
4⃣ The yen carry trade positions have once again piled up into a one-sided net short, crowded and close to historical extremes.
Are there others? Friends are welcome to help me add more.
Finally, the current sensitivity of BTC's own chip structure will also invisibly amplify the above potential risk points.
--------------------------------
Of course, this does not mean it will definitely happen; it is just our speculation based on the abnormal behavior suddenly appearing in LTH.
Where there is abnormality, there must be a reason. We should closely monitor LTH behavior changes recently.
If large-scale distribution continues, it will inevitably put pressure on the market. If it is just a brief individual behavior, the impact will be limited. $SPCX Dot homepage with a single order. Witness the rise of the next genius trader hahaha, currently SpaceX short positions have reached $23.6 billion, with short positions exceeding Tesla. The mainstream bearish logic in the market mainly bets on the upcoming large-scale lock-up stock release impact.
But my view: the stock price is unlikely to continue to weaken deeply.
Most holders of these unlocked shares are early investors who have accompanied the company throughout, enduring SpaceX's toughest and most uncertain long cycle. Funds that have persevered through the trough value the long-term potential of the rocket sector; the motivation for concentrated short-term selling due to lock-up expiration is not sufficient.
Short sellers excessively amplify the negative impact of the lock-up, underestimating the patience of long-term industry capital holdings. Of course, short-term volatility is unavoidable, but the medium- to long-term fundamental value still has support.
⚠️Risk warning: This is only a personal thought sharing and does not constitute investment advice. 30-year US Treasury yield surges to 5.23%, is the market danger just beginning?
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond once rose to 5.23%, hitting a 19-year high. The last time it reached this level was on the eve of the 2007 financial crisis.
The biggest disagreement in the market now is not about who is right or wrong, but whether this is truly the peak.
Optimists believe that as long as the US economy starts to slow down and expectations for future rate cuts rise, long-term yields have a chance to fall back. But others argue that with the US fiscal deficit continuously expanding and the scale of Treasury issuance increasing, the market is demanding higher risk returns, and the 30-year Treasury yield may remain high for a longer period.
The 30-year US Treasury has always been regarded as the global asset pricing anchor. When it stands above 5%, it not only affects the bond market but also leads to a re-pricing of US stock valuations, real estate financing costs, gold, and even cryptocurrencies.
$BTC $SNDK $HOME
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ On August 3rd, Morgan Stanley suddenly downgraded Circle's rating. The rating was downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight, meaning it believes Circle may underperform its peers in the future. The target price was even more dramatic, dropping directly from $106 to $38, a drop of over 64%. Coincidentally, Circle will release its Q2 financial report on August 5. Morgan Stanley chose to throw out a very pessimistic judgment to the market two days before its earnings report. It is concerned about USDC's slowing growth, interest rate declines affecting interest income, competition from Open USD, and Circle's future need to share more revenue with partners like Coinbase. These concerns are completely justified. But most of them didn't just appear in the past two days. How does Circle make money? Circle is the issuer of USDC. After users exchange 1 USD for 1 USDC, Circle puts the received funds into cash and short-term US Treasury bonds as reserve assets. The interest generated by these assets is Circle
The main source of income. However, most people access USDC through platforms like Coinbase and Binance. To encourage these platforms to promote USDC, Circle must allocate a large portion of its revenue to them. In the first quarter, Circle generated approximately $694 million in revenue while incurring about $407 million in distribution, trading, and other related costs, of which about $331 million was related toDon't rush to shout "The king of optical communications is back!" The real signal Nvidia sent this time is not that all optical communications stocks should rise, but that a question that has puzzled Wall Street for months finally has an answer: CPO is not a story stuck in the lab; it has entered the production and early delivery phases. But the timeline must also be clearly stated. As early as May 31, NVIDIA announced that the Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics CPO switch had "entered production." The most recent increase is that products have begun to be delivered to select partners, and capacity is expected to continue expanding in the second half of 2026. In other words: "Start production" has already been confirmed by Nvidia; "Some customers have started to pick up goods" is a new development; "Large-scale volume expansion and comprehensive contribution to supplier performance" have yet to happen; The real revenue peak widely anticipated by the market is more likely to fall between 2027 and 2028. This is not a wordplay. It directly determines whether this rally is a performance reversal or if the market is correcting previously overly pessimistic valuations. 1. Why did it crash before? It's not that demand has disappeared, but Wall Street has cut it three times at once. In early June, an industry study on possible delays in some of Nvidia's CPO projects triggered a collective drop in optical communication stocks. At that time, the market experienced such a single-day decline: AAOI fell about 17%; POET fell about 12%; COHR fell about 11%; LITE fell about 8%; MRVL fell about 7.6%; CI1 Nasdaq has rebounded again, but the STAR Market 50 completely collapsed yesterday. Many friends who play big A-shares have lost confidence and came to me to vent. They ask why our tech sector can't make retail investors money while Americans can just lie down and retire.
2 If we talk about the core difference, I think it can be traced back to cultural roots. Look at neighboring South Korea, which, like us, also harshly kills retail investors... This is not much about the system difference, but mainly about cultural roots.
In Japan, houses and the stock market wiped out the wealth of several generations. Just as it was about to rise, overseas assets came in and picked the fruits. From a long-term perspective, it's actually even worse... Ordinary workers' wages are also drained by exchange rates, sigh.
3 The agrarian civilization has a setting that is very incompatible with financial markets: if you don't move, you starve to death. This cultural gene curse is awkward, but this curse is actually a cultural curse. The agricultural society truly engraved in the genes mostly needs to lie flat, meaning resting at home when not active to reduce calorie consumption is the core. (In the industrial era, this evolved into the talent for slacking off.)
Because everyone promotes that if you don't move, you starve, there is crazy internal competition in business. Countless stay-at-home moms go into debt to start businesses hoping to become bosses early and scold employees beautifully. Many industry bosses also aim to kill competitors first and then monopolize to harvest high prices...
But the interesting thing about the business society is that once you truly establish a monopoly at the business level, the cake might not be yours... because our invisible hand does not allow non-state enterprises to form de facto monopolies locally. Even state-owned enterprises, the three major telecom operators, did not get WeChat voice calls removed...
In a society where everyone is shrinking their balance sheets, giving up and moderately lying flat actually requires great courage. It's like the difference in returns between a stock investor working hard for 12 months versus 1 month—is it big? Most likely, the latter's returns are higher.
4 Recently, I have been thinking about the second half of the semiconductor industry, including memory. This is an era that requires a ruthless and firm deleveraging. Although painful, every investor must learn this skill. Shrinking balance sheets ahead of major changes in the era, and instead deploying in intermediaries of the era, such as exchanges and financial institutions, is a kind of defensive thinking.
I know this behavior is very counterintuitive and out of sync with most people in the market, but those who were thinking about changing houses at the beginning of the year are now thinking about how to break even.
The leverage in the latter half of the market will be even greater because the principal has mostly dropped.
5 Gold mining stocks continue to look bullish and can be invested in regularly. Bitcoin caught MSTR's sell-off and can continue to be bullish. Also, keep an eye on its convertible bond prices.
6 U.S. cybersecurity and cloud service stocks are performing well but seem a bit high currently. The probability of a rate hike in September is greater. Real estate and insurance stocks are currently at low levels and can be bought on dips for some index exposure, but avoid buying individual stocks.
7 Recently, when selecting targets, don't look at PE ratios; focus more on free cash flow and price-to-book ratios.
8 Recently, many discussions have been about the July drawdown, to see who is the long-term investor.Looking back at that classic Zhihu question "Buying BTC for 6000 yuan," almost everyone's first reaction was the same: If only I had blindly bought it back then, wouldn't I have achieved financial freedom by now? 😮
But what truly deserves deep reflection is not the "missed opportunity," but rather "If time could rewind, could you really hold on?" 🤔
What we see today is the Bitcoin myth validated after 2017, a beautiful upward curve. But if you really stood in 2013, 2014, 2015, or 2016, what you'd experience wouldn't be a steady rise, but a series of life-or-death tests:
In 2013, policy risks struck suddenly, and the market plummeted 📉
In 2014, heavy holders couldn't bear it and cut losses to exit 💔
In 2015, a prolonged bear market made even the most steadfast believers start doubting their faith 🌪️
In 2016, Bitfinex was attacked, and exchange security risks were starkly exposed to everyone 💥
So, the core question has never been "Why didn't I buy back then?" but rather: "If I had bought back then, could I really have held on until dawn?" 🔥
Many wealth stories look absurdly simple in hindsight: buy, hold, forget the password, check years later. But you in the market are not a cold backtest data set; you are a living person who feels fear, wavers, reads the news, and gets discouraged by those around you. 📰
During crashes, you repeatedly question yourself: Did I misjudge? Should I cut losses? This anxiety cannot be eased by just saying "hold long term."
This is why the greatest value of such "crypto archaeology" is not to create regret, but to remind us: what is truly scarce is not a single "perfect buy," but maintaining awareness, managing position sizes well, enduring emotional swings amid huge uncertainty, and ultimately surviving. 🧠
Missing out on Bitcoin is indeed a pity, but if back then your mindset, capital, and risk tolerance weren't ready, then living steadily, enjoying a good meal, taking a trip, or eating a slice of pizza isn't necessarily a bad thing. 🍕
The hardest part of investing is never understanding history in hindsight, but whether you yourself can get through it before history becomes history.
No one can do this for you. 💪#ISM hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall instead
The stronger the US economy, the more US Treasury yields fall—what exactly is the market trading this time?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, the highest since 2022, briefly heating up market expectations for a September rate hike. Normally, the stronger the economy and the greater the inflation pressure, the more US Treasury yields should rise.
But this time, the market gave a completely different answer.
After the data release, 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields actually fell. The core variable behind this is not the economy, but a decline in risk premiums. As tensions between the US and Iran show signs of easing, oil prices plunged in a single day, and the market has reduced concerns about energy-driven inflation, while safe-haven funds have started to release pressure from the bond market.
My judgment is that the market is currently trading not on "whether the US economy will be strong," but on "whether inflation pressure will persist."
If the manufacturing recovery is just a demand improvement and oil prices fall again, then the Federal Reserve has no reason to turn more hawkish because of one strong data point. Conversely, if energy prices rise again in the future and inflation expectations rebound, then the 30-year US Treasury yield around 5.3% may still face pressure.
Therefore, I believe we should focus more on the bond market now, rather than just economic data.
Many people in the past were used to judging the market with one phrase:
Good economy, high interest rates, risk assets fall.
But the market is more complex now.
A strong economy may mean improved corporate profits, and falling oil prices reduce inflation pressure. These two factors combined may actually give risk assets some breathing room.
For the crypto market, I will not reduce positions just because the ISM is strong for now.
The reason is simple: BTC is not really afraid of economic growth, but of liquidity tightening.
If in the coming weeks we see:
US Treasury yields continue to fall;
The US dollar does not strengthen significantly;
Rate hike expectations do not further intensify;
Then risk assets, including the crypto market, may actually welcome a new recovery window.
The biggest opportunity in the market now may not be to find "which data is more important," but to observe which variable ultimately dominates the direction of funds.
This time, I am more focused on US Treasury yields, not the ISM numbers themselves.Before the halving, why didn't I dare chase the rebound? $BTC jumped overnight from 62,437.7 to 64,244.2, up 2.19% in 24 hours, directly surging above 63,900. But I stared at the screen for three hours and didn't dare to make a move. To be honest, this kind of rally makes me both excited and nervous—after all, I still vividly remember the "rise first, then fall" scenario before the March 2024 halving. 📊 The data tells me this is not an ordinary rebound, let's first look at volume. The 24-hour trading volume was 304.18M USDT, a 73.4% increase compared to the previous 24-hour period. What does this number indicate? This shows real money is entering the market, not the kind of volume reduction and inflated price. The price climbed from 62,437.7 all the way to 64,244.2, with the high reaching the 24-hour high. This kind of high-volume rally would normally be something I would chase. But the problem is, market sentiment is too complicated right now. The halving narrative has been hyped up several times, and the story of "halving guarantees a price increase" was already proven wrong once in March 2024. History doesn't repeat itself, but market participants' memories are always surprisingly consistent—the more everyone thinks prices are rising, the more cautious they become. The key question is: after this surge, can the price hold steady? Guess what happened next? 🔧 My trading tip: Bollinger Bands narrowing and moving average arrangement. I have a habit of watching the market first, then the moving averages, using both signals togetherTraditional financial institutions are rebalancing their crypto asset allocation weights—Italy's largest bank, Ibis Sant Paulo, has just made a directional judgment in a 13F file. According to the Q2 13F filing submitted by the bank, its IBIT common stock holdings dropped from 646,809 shares to 40,723 shares, a decrease of 93.7%; The number of underlying shares corresponding to IBIT call options dropped from 2,496,500 to 18,000, a decrease of 99.3%. Short selling protection followed up simultaneously: In the same document, the bank added an IBIT put option position representing 500,000 underlying shares, indicating some concerns about Bitcoin's short-term downside risk. However, the 13F document does not disclose details such as strike price or expiration date, making it impossible to determine whether this is purely short selling or strategic hedging. ETH's "counter-trend addition" stands in stark contrast: in the same quarter, the bank increased its iShares-staked Ethereum ETF holdings from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, a slight increase of more than threefold. The value of the holdings rose from about $3.15 million to about $7.1 million. SOL was liquidated: Bitwise's Solana staking ETF holdings dropped from 2,817 shares to just 7 shares, essentially a full sell-off. XRP holdings remain unchanged at 712,319 shares. But note: the bank has not completely abandoned its Bitcoin exposure. It still holds about 3.47 million shares of the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), valued at approximately $67.63 million,📊 $SNDK Contract Liquidation Express (August 4)
According to liquidation data, this round of shorts was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $1,242,200
Long position liquidations about $6,203.72
Short position liquidations about $1,236,000
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $2,346,800
Long position liquidations about $306,600
Short position liquidations about $2,040,200
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $3,875,100
Long position liquidations about $1,055,500
Short position liquidations about $2,819,600
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $13,924,300
Long position liquidations about $3,981,700
Short position liquidations about $9,942,700
From the $SNDK liquidation data, short position liquidations in 1 hour crushed longs by 199 times, a short squeeze blitzkrieg with nuclear-level intensity right from the start; the short advantage continued over 4 hours with a ratio of about 6.65 times, triggering a full-scale short squeeze; shorts still far ahead over 12 hours with a ratio of about 2.67 times, sustaining the short squeeze through short to mid-term cycles; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $9.94 million, 2.5 times that of longs. The dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on SNDK—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles were comprehensively targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $13.92 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 5
This screenshot inadvertently captured the core battlefield of China's consumer market—618, Double 11, and the 10-billion-yuan subsidies. The white-hot competition among e-commerce platforms never stops.
🛒 The truth behind 618 consumption: growth exists but is slowing down
The 2026 618 shopping festival has concluded, with total sales on comprehensive e-commerce platforms around ¥896.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%—a further slowdown compared to 10.2% in 2024 and 9.5% in 2025. Live-stream e-commerce growth dropped from over 50% to about 25%-30%, indicating the traffic dividend is peaking.
More concerning is the return rate. Clothing categories have return rates as high as 50%-60%, beauty products about 30%-40%, and some live-stream rooms even exceed 80%. The GMV figures look impressive, but actual transactions are significantly discounted.
💰 Consumer loans and personal leverage: emerging concerns
During 618, consumer loan products from Ant, JD, Meituan, and other platforms fully participated—"Buy Now, Pay Later" penetration has exceeded 30%. However, a new change this year is that some banks have started tightening funding support for e-commerce consumer loans, reflecting worries about personal leverage.
Alipay, WeChat Pay, and JD Pay—the three major payment tools processed tens of billions of transactions during 618. Behind every payment is a data point that pieces together the real picture of Chinese consumption: growth is in third- and fourth-tier cities and among the silver-haired population, while existing demand oscillates between price sensitivity and quality upgrades.
🔮 The next battlefield for payments: crypto payments?
Alipay and WeChat Pay have penetration rates exceeding 85% domestically, with limited growth space. The next battlefield lies in cross-border and B2B payments. Meanwhile, crypto payments are globally restructuring payment logic—stablecoins like USDT and USDC have processed tens of trillions of dollars in transactions with near-zero fees. Circle's upcoming earnings report this week is a window to observe this trend.
💎 Summary
E-commerce platforms use subsidies to drive growth, payment tools bind users with scenarios, and consumer loans fill purchasing power with leverage—behind every order is a contest of traffic, data, and credit. When traffic peaks, leverage maxes out, and consumption stratifies, the war among 618, Pinduoduo, and Alipay ultimately is a battle for the right to answer "how Chinese people spend money." The real hard fight will be the Double 11 in the second half of the year. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Ethereum ETF net outflows, but ETH hits near 24-hour highs: What exactly is the capital trading?
SoSoValue data shows that on August 3rd Eastern Time, the total net outflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs was $11.4178 million. Among them, BlackRock's staking product ETHB had a net inflow of $5.7791 million, Morgan Stanley's MSSE had a net inflow of $603,300; on the other hand, BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day net outflow of $9.0303 million, becoming the main drag.
This structure is quite interesting.
ETHB and MSSE together absorbed about $6.3824 million but still couldn't offset ETHA's withdrawal, indicating that funds are not completely leaving $ETH but are being redistributed among different products. Currently, the total net asset value of Ethereum ETFs is about $10.233 billion, accounting for 4.54% of ETH's total market cap; the historical cumulative net inflow is $11.199 billion, showing institutional funds remain an undeniable pricing force, though short-term divergences have clearly increased.
Looking at the market, $ETH is currently priced at $1872.22, up 0.52% in 24 hours, with a low of $1835.43 and a high of $1875.61, a range of about 2.19%. It is only $3.39 below the 24-hour high, indicating the price has not been directly suppressed by ETF net outflows but is instead testing the upper boundary.
The 1-hour chart is also getting interesting. The latest candlestick rose from $1865.88 to $1872.22, a 0.34% increase; MA5, MA10, and MA20 are at $1863.26, $1863.24, and $1863.47 respectively, with the three moving averages tightly converged, and the price standing above this moving average cluster. This usually means the previous consolidation is choosing a direction, but a single bullish candle is not enough to declare a breakout.
Short term, watch $1875–$1880. This is both the 24-hour high and a recent repeated selling pressure zone; if volume increases and holds above, the next clear resistance is at $1900–$1902. Conversely, if it rallies but then falls back below $1863, the market will likely return to consolidating between $1850–$1840, with extreme support still at the previous low of $1820.77.
Funding rate is 0.00545%, open interest about 1.332 billion USDT, indicating bullish sentiment but far from extreme overcrowding. My understanding is: ETF data is cold, but the candlesticks are strong; $ETH is currently trading "resilience amid capital divergence." Whether it can truly strengthen depends not on slogans but on whether sustained volume relay occurs above $1875.
For personal market observation only, not investment advice, DYOR.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH Brothers, a counterintuitive fact: BTC dropped to 62,528, F&G index hit 28 fear, yet the perpetual funding rate stubbornly stays at +0.0032% without turning negative. What does this mean? The stubborn longs haven't given up yet.
What does a normal bottom look like? When panic reaches its extreme, the funding rate crashes to -0.05% or even lower, forcing longs to be liquidated. Now the price is down, sentiment is collapsing, but there's still a group of people paying to hold onto their long positions.
Breaking down the on-chain numbers: Open Interest (OI) is frozen at 111,400 BTC without dropping a bit, volume cut by 31.3%. The money hasn't fled; it's locked in the contracts.
This pile of leverage is a ticking time bomb—111,000 BTC worth of positions can be pierced through on both long and short sides by just a small trigger, no one can feel comfortable.
For BTC, this is a "high-leverage stalemate," not a bottom; for ETH and altcoins it's even worse, breadth shows 6 up and 9 down, KAITO down -16.1% is the norm, GRVT up +14.55% is just an isolated spike.
Here's what you can take away: use the funding rate to judge the bottom. Funding rate near zero or even positive + OI frozen at a high level = longs haven't been flushed out, the bottom hasn't arrived.
The real sign of a bottom is "funding rate turning deeply negative + OI crashing"—that's when bloodied chips are forcibly cleared. Neither condition is met now, so don't mistake sideways trading for a bottom.
News also supports this: 10x Research says the bear market bottom might appear in August, but American Bitcoin is still mining at record levels, and Trump-affiliated mining companies narrowed losses in Q2—the miners haven't stopped, supply side hasn't tightened.
A self-deprecating note: my two positions (ADA long -1.37%, KAITO short -0.81%) are stuck in this stalemate, neither side making money, just for fun.
Remember: if the funding rate doesn't turn negative, it means the people who should be scared the most aren't scared yet. When the funding rate crashes through and OI collapses, that's when you should open your eyes wide.
Friends, do you think this +0.0032% stubborn long is "true faith" or "last stubbornness"? Let's discuss in the comments, I'll see who gives up first.
#BTC #ETH #PerpetualContracts #FundingRateSignal #MarketSentiment #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanet #LeverageRisk #CapitalFlow #AltcoinSeasonStrategy sells another 1,638 BTC to cash out $104.7 million: average cost $75,419 vs selling price $63,957 — Why is the world's largest Bitcoin holder still selling at a loss?
According to the latest disclosure, Strategy sold another 1,638 bitcoins from July 27 to August 2, cashing out $104.7 million. The average selling price this time was $63,957.
As of now, Strategy's massive Bitcoin empire — totaling 842,138 BTC — has an average acquisition cost as high as $75,419.
This means that for every Bitcoin sold, Strategy is actually losing more than $11,500.
This is already Strategy's third sale in 2026, and the scale is increasingly alarming.
Let's review the selling timeline:
At the end of May, a tentative "cut loss": Strategy sold only 32 bitcoins, cashing out about $2.5 million. The official explanation at the time was understated, calling it an "active market desensitization test."
Early July, large-scale "bloodletting": the company suddenly sold 3,588 bitcoins, cashing out $216 million, with an average price of about $60,200. This large net sale directly triggered market panic, causing Strategy's stock price (MSTR) to drop, and Bitcoin's price to fall accordingly.
Early August, normalized "selling": which is the sale we see today, another 1,638 bitcoins sold.
From 32 to 3,588, and now 1,638, the selling actions have not stopped but rather show a "normalized" trend.
So, what exactly forced them to this point? The answer — STRC preferred shares.
Simply put, STRC is like a high-yield bond. If you buy it, Strategy must pay you high monthly interest (dividends). The key is, this interest is floating and accumulative — meaning if they can't pay one day, the owed interest compounds.
How high is this "interest"? When STRC was issued in July 2025, the initial annual dividend rate was 9.00%. But as the market environment worsened, Strategy had to keep raising the dividend rate to prevent STRC's price from collapsing (its face value is $100, but it once dropped near $75, forcing continuous dividend hikes to attract investors).
On July 1, 2026, Strategy grit their teeth and raised STRC's dividend rate directly to 12.00%!
What does a 12% annual dividend mean? It's several times the risk-free rate, comparable to high-risk junk bonds. This huge monthly cash outflow acts like a massive pump, draining Strategy's cash flow.
Where does the money come from? In a bull market, Strategy could easily raise funds by issuing common shares (MSTR). But now, with its stock price having plummeted over 75% from its peak, that path is basically blocked. Issuing debt financing? Also very difficult in the current environment.
So, only one last and most painful way remains: selling the company's core asset — Bitcoin.
The official announcement does not shy away: the $104.7 million from this Bitcoin sale is "used for dividends and buybacks."
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 $BTC $BTC 【📊BTC sideways at 64000, resilience test under bearish pressure】
BTC has hovered around 64000 for days, with volatility under 3%, multiple attempts to break higher have failed to hold.
News: ETF net inflows continue, institutional funds keep entering; but Strategy sold 1638 BTC at $63957 to cash out, Coldcard vulnerability attacks have resulted in a total loss of 1815 BTC, suppressing market confidence.
On-chain: miners sold about 1774 BTC in a week, increasing supply; however, large addresses continue accumulating, hedging against the ETF.
Technical: 64000-64500 is strong resistance, 62000-62300 is key support. Volatility has dropped to a two-year low, a breakout is imminent.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $ETH $SOL The bill is dying fast.
The probability of the Clarity Act passing on Polymarket has dropped to 27%, and Galaxy Digital has cut its prediction from 60% to 50%. It's not that there's a problem with the bill's content, but there's no time left. If it doesn't pass before the Senate recess in August, senators will enter midterm election mode, and no one will touch crypto legislation. The core sticking point is stablecoin yields—the banks say the rewards platforms give to stablecoin holders are disguised interest and must be banned. The crypto industry says this kills innovation. The White House supports crypto and released a report saying that even if the rewards are banned, bank lending would only increase by 0.02%.
Actual impact: If the bill dies in the Senate, dual regulation by the SEC and CFTC will continue, and projects will keep moving to Singapore and Abu Dhabi. Many people who bet on "regulatory clarity" in the last bull market will have to rethink their positions.$CORE Today, CORE tops the list of biggest decliners, which is worth everyone's calm reflection. A few days ago, it staged a phase rebound relying on the BTCFi narrative, but the entire rebound lacked substantial positive catalysts and was driven solely by market sentiment. Short-term profit-taking concentratedly cashed out, and the market came under pressure again.
Recently, a widely spread argument claims that CORE is Bitcoin's "favorite child" and the chosen foundational layer of the BTCFi sector. Although this narrative easily attracts attention, it also hides many logical flaws. Many investors might be misled by promotional rhetoric and overlook some practical constraints.
Objectively speaking, CoreDAO has indeed made technical explorations. It proposed the Satoshi Plus consensus and is compatible with EVM, forming a differentiated narrative among many public chains. This is also an important reason it can attract long-term market attention.
However, beyond the bullish narrative, several issues deserve calm discussion:
1. Miner delegated computing power does not equal Bitcoin-level security guarantees
Bitcoin miners delegate computing power to participate in the CORE network essentially to earn token rewards, which is a market-driven profit behavior and does not mean the computing power is permanently bound. Once mining profits decline, computing power may be withdrawn at any time. BTC computing power will not provide double-spend defense for CORE; the so-called "ultimate security barrier" is mostly a marketing expression.
2. The name and narrative can easily mislead newcomers
It is necessary to clearly distinguish: Bitcoin Core is the official Bitcoin client, while $CORE CoreDAO is an independent project. There is no so-called "blood relationship" between the two, nor direct ties to Satoshi Nakamoto or the original Bitcoin development team. The project mainly establishes association through its name and BTC computing power narrative, which can easily cause new investors to form incorrect assumptions.
3. EVM compatibility is just a threshold, not a guarantee of ecosystem prosperity
EVM compatibility indeed means developers can more easily migrate some applications, but ecosystem prosperity depends not only on compatibility but also on user base, liquidity, capital depth, and real on-chain activity. Without continuous user and capital inflow, mere "compatibility" is insufficient to ensure the project can retain its ecosystem.
4. The BTCFi sector is large, but that does not mean CORE naturally wins
On-chain yield of Bitcoin assets is a long-term direction. STX, Bitcoin layer-2s, multiple public chains, and staking protocols are all competing. The sector space is large, but competitors are many. Having a flashy narrative does not guarantee stable market capture; only a few projects will ultimately succeed.
5. Medium- to long-term token pressure should not be ignored
CORE token unlocking periods are long, with continuous circulating selling pressure. The price has fallen significantly from historical highs, and there is a large amount of high-level trapped positions piled up. Every rebound faces dual selling pressure from positions being freed and short-term profit-taking. The project's ecosystem development still needs time to be verified. If subsequent on-chain data and application launches fall short of expectations, market sentiment may continue to be pressured.
6. Bottom consolidation does not equal a guaranteed value bottom
The market often interprets prolonged declines as "bad news clearing," waiting for a breakout. But in reality, many tokens with long-term low-level consolidation do not automatically see a major reversal. The bottom is just a price state, not a clear opportunity. A true reversal usually requires ecosystem implementation, incremental capital, sector sentiment, and multiple factors resonating together.
In summary, narratives can drive short-term sentiment and trigger phase rebounds; but long-term price trends ultimately require real on-chain data, ecosystem application implementation, and sustained market capital validation.
A question worth pondering is: If CORE's long-term development logic is truly solid, why hasn't institutional incremental capital continuously entered on a large scale?
Also, I want to ask everyone:
What do you think is currently the biggest factor restricting CORE's market performance — continuous selling pressure from token holders or ecosystem implementation progress falling short of market expectations? Rational discussion is welcome.
⚠️ Risk reminder: This article is only for industry viewpoint exchange and discussion and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk of principal loss. Please conduct independent research and make cautious decisions. BTC at $63,700, no one is talking about it?
First, look at the surface: a bunch of negative news, but the price hasn't crashed.
In the past 24 hours, it rose slightly by 0.4%, rebounding from the 62k support level to 63.8k, down 27% YTD, nearly halving from the 126k ATH. The 62,000-62,800 range has been tested four times without breaking. The bottom is solidifying, but the breakout still lacks momentum.
First thing: Strategy is selling, but don’t be scared by clickbait headlines.
Saylor's company sold another 1,638 BTC at an average price of 64,000, cashing out $105 million for preferred stock dividends and buybacks. Media headline: "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin again!"
Scary? But look closely—Strategy holds about 450,000 BTC in total, and this sale is less than 0.4%. Saylor himself repeatedly emphasizes: he has never sold a single satoshi personally.
Second thing: a vulnerability scared the whole market, but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Coldcard hardware wallet firmware RNG vulnerability led to cold wallet seeds being derivable, resulting in thefts estimated between $70 million and $100 million.
Sounds terrifying? But this has nothing to do with BTC stored on exchanges or using mainstream software wallets. This is a specific batch issue with a particular hardware wallet, not a breach of the Bitcoin network.
Third thing: macro suppression is the real "big BOSS."
Federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, July FOMC hawkishly on hold, market pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike in September. Core PCE remains sticky at 3.3%-3.7%.
Strong dollar means weak BTC. Tight liquidity means risk assets struggle to breathe.
August 7th nonfarm payroll data, mid-month CPI, and end-of-month Jackson Hole—each of these three events can cause BTC to fluctuate $2,000-$3,000 instantly. But the market has already priced in a 67% chance of a rate hike; if data is soft, BTC will take off; if hard, it will just hammer 62k again The chime on August 6th is not the endgame, but the beginning of a midgame sacrifice. When that piece worth hundreds of billions—the 910 million locked shares—simultaneously pushes to the center of the board, has your king's wing already prepared breathing room for the endgame twenty moves later?
I sit before the board, seeing only two kinds of time: one is the second hand on the dial, the other is the ticking countdown on the chess clock. SpaceX’s earnings report dropped after the close on August 4th, but that was just a routine opening move. The real battle drums sounded two days later—the unlock day, when qualified holders can freely play twenty percent of their restricted shares, unleashing over a hundred billion dollars worth of buy and sell orders flooding the public market, a volume comparable to a mirrored reflection of the entire public float.
On the stark black-and-white board, the shape of this game is unusually chaotic: the stock closed at 108.37 on July 31st, nearly 20% below the $135 IPO price, and only remnants remain from the $225 peak in June. White seems to have the advantage—Starlink’s revenue jumped 50% year-over-year, like a queen spanning the entire board. But we professional players never look only at the pieces; we look at the position. The shadow of a $5 billion annual loss is like a deep black pawn chain slowly grinding down the c-file.
The expert’s judgment lies in distinguishing "live pieces" from "dead pieces." The hundred-billion unlock selling pressure is not a sudden sacrifice, but a carefully set double bishop trap by the opponent—on the surface panic, but in reality a touchstone. If the earnings report reveals a path to profit, these unlocked chips will turn into defectors at the last moment, becoming the vanguard defending the board; if it’s just empty promises, then every so-called "good news" move will be precisely countered and wiped out by the opponent’s tactical combinations, with the final move before checkmate often silent.
As a grandmaster, I never get excited over the gain or loss of a single move. On August 6th, all spectators focused on the red numbers on the trading volume screen, but I watched the shape of the game: at the moment floating chips are unlocked and smashed through, will it lure in true long-term capital to build a horse-step fortress? Between a $5 billion loss and 50% growth lies a defensive corridor only the endgame can reveal—whether the profit path is like a c-file passed pawn, unstoppable; or whether it is lightly entangled by the opponent, becoming a perpetual death bishop?
The chess clock ticks. Between July 31st and August 6th, there was no wasted move, but the outcome is not decided by the thick K-line bar on unlock day, but by who silently sees their coordinates twenty moves ahead. I rise from my seat, not because the endgame is decided, but because the numbers on the chess clock tick only for those planners who have already calculated the endgame. #spacexunlockloomsBreaking! One sentence from the U.S. Treasury Secretary might be more impactful than a Fed rate cut $BTC
Just saw a Jin10 flash news, Bassett said "an Iran deal could be reached as soon as tomorrow, opening the Strait of Hormuz."
$ETH
This waterway being blocked has kept oil prices tight. Once it really opens, crude oil will most likely plummet instantly, directly easing inflation expectations. Once inflation eases, the Fed’s room to cut rates emerges — this is the real liquidity boost, more tangible than any candlestick pattern. $GIGGLE
But don’t get too excited yet. As geopolitical risks fade, the "safe-haven premium" for gold and Bitcoin will also be withdrawn, possibly causing a short-term drop before a rebound. The usual script is: the news causes an initial spike, then the market calms down and reprices.
If you trade contracts, you definitely need to watch closely from tonight through tomorrow to avoid stop losses from whipsaws. Spot players might consider: with energy costs dropping, is this an indirect benefit for Ethereum Layer2s, which consume a lot of gas? After all, gas fees are linked to ETH price but more so to network activity; the logic is a bit complex, but sentiment will likely push risk assets up first.
Also, the Iran deal inevitably involves oil-dollar dynamics; if the dollar index weakens as a result, the dollar-denominated Bitcoin price might actually rise.
In short, tomorrow could either see a black swan turn into a dove or continued bickering. I’m betting on "rise, then fall, then rise again." What do you think? #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #美日确认联合购汇 New news has emerged on the geopolitical front: Trump publicly stated that US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, while also issuing a tough warning, calling this the last window for Iran to reach an agreement.
The market's initial reaction leaned directly toward risk assets benefiting. However, for this kind of narrative, the key is to see what substantial changes have actually occurred on the ground. The phrase "last chance" carries a dual interpretation: it can be seen as a sign that negotiations are seeing a glimmer of hope and conflict may cool down; or it can be viewed as a final ultimatum, where failure to reach an agreement would lead to military action. The same statement can be used by both bulls and bears as justification for their own logic.
BTC has rebounded in the past two days, but it’s hard to clearly separate how much of this is due to easing geopolitical tensions priced in, and how much is just short covering riding the news for a lift.
My view: Politicians’ public statements are weak signals mixed in noise, not set-in-stone facts. Don’t base heavy or fixed positions solely on a single negotiation statement; continue to observe how the situation evolves. $BTC