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The biggest future Crypto users might not be humans. But AI. Over the past decade or so, the crypto industry has been searching for an answer: Who will truly use blockchain? Not speculation. Not trading. But everyday use. We've seen many answers. 2017: "Everyone issues Tokens." 2020: "DeFi will reshape finance." 2021: "NFTs will bring 1 billion users." Later: Many narratives proved one thing: Attracting attention is easy. Creating real usage is hard. But the emergence of AI Agents might change this. Because AI has one characteristic: It is not a consumer. It is an executor. In the future, an AI Agent might: Buy data. Rent computing power. Call APIs. Pay service fees. Manage assets. Even trade with another AI Agent. Here comes the question: Is the traditional financial system ready? Bank cards? Require humans. Accounts? Require identity. International payments? Require many intermediaries. Fees? Not suitable for machine high-frequency, small-amount transactions. But blockchain naturally provides: Wallets. Programmatic payments. 24/7 settlement. Open networks. This means: Crypto might see a truly new user group for the first time: Not humans. But machines. This is also why I think many people underestimate stablecoins. In the past: Stablecoins = dollars in exchanges. In the future: Stablecoins might become cash in the AI economy. Because machines don't need gold. Nor complex financial products. They need: Stability. Speed. Programmability. Global accessibility. Of course, the biggest risk exists here too. Many projects will exploit the AI concept to create new bubbles. "AI + Token" Does not equal value. The only truly important question is: Why does AI need blockchain? If you can't answer that, It's just a different story. So my judgment: The core of the next round of Crypto competition Might not be: Who has the most users. But: Who becomes the financial infrastructure for the AI economy runtime. The biggest growth in the next decade Might not be 1 billion new people entering Crypto. But: Billions of AI Agents starting to use Crypto. What do you think: Will AI Agents become the real large-scale users of Crypto? Or is this just the next market narrative? Welcome to discuss. #“AI股神”基金清仓，美光单日涨超15% Why am I watching $BTC again: not because it’s rising, but because the ETF is back A few days ago, when BTC dropped to 62,200, the group was full of cries like "the bear is back" and "half of the 120,000 high point retraced." But this week it directly reclaimed above 64,000 — what really made me open the candlestick chart again wasn’t how much it rose, but this signal 👇 On August 3 and August 4, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had consecutive net inflows, totaling over $200 million in two days, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the buying, ending the continuous outflow trend in July. In plain language: The money cut at around 60,000 last time was picked up by institutions through IBIT/FBTC; This rebound isn’t retail hype, it’s "regulated pockets" taking over; But today the fear and greed index is still stuck at 27, meaning it hasn’t reached the stage of mass FOMO yet. My judgment (personal, don’t follow blindly): If 63,000 doesn’t break → consolidation with a bullish bias, watch if 65,000–65,400 can be broken with volume; If 63,000 breaks again → back to the lower edge of the range, don’t hold on stubbornly; This looks more like a correction, not a "bull market restart," don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal and go all in with leverage. At your 64,000 position, are you adding or reducing? Let’s argue in the comments. $BTC Dow Jones hits a historic high of 54085, why did $BTC BTC only rise slightly by 0.98%? On the evening of August 4th Beijing time, the Dow Jones index closed at 54085.88, with a daily increase of 1.71%. The S&P 500 also refreshed its historical high to 7736.52 points, fully fueling the bullish atmosphere in the US stock market. Risk asset sentiment has comprehensively warmed up, with Nvidia rising 2.56%, Apple closing up 1.96%, and most of the seven major leading tech stocks closing higher. However, Bitcoin only rose 0.98% throughout the day, showing a very weak trend, completely failing to follow the bullish sentiment of the broader market to start a rally. This round of US stock market gains is driven by multiple positive factors including the easing of the Middle East Hormuz Strait situation, a 6% plunge in international crude oil prices, and easing inflation pressures. However, crypto assets are weighed down by the unresolved US crypto regulatory issues. Institutional funds prefer to heavily invest in AI hardware targets rather than bear the policy risks of digital currencies. With the Fed's rate cut expectations continuing to heat up, can the liquidity dividend be transmitted to the crypto market?The truth revealed! The $130 million Coldcard theft case, the vulnerability may have been discovered early but ignored. After re-examining the Coldcard incident, I found that the controversy has escalated from "coding errors" to "who knew about the vulnerability and why it wasn't fixed." A 2021 firmware change caused private key generation to bypass hardware random numbers and instead call predictable software pseudo-random numbers. Attackers could offline brute-force part of the seed without touching the device. Different tracking sources currently estimate that about $114 million to $130 million in $BTC may have been stolen. Developer James O'Beirne said that during an audit in May 2025, he warned Coinkite about suspicious LibNgU random number implementation, but it was not addressed. He also pointed out via GPG signature that the anonymous account releasing the library and Coinkite CTO Peter Gray might be controlled by the same person; this identity link remains a public accusation, and Coinkite has not fully responded. The most ironic part is that users buy hardware wallets to reduce trust, but in the end, they still have to trust the vendor's code audits and vulnerability responses. Affected old seeds will not automatically be secure even after firmware upgrades; seeds must be regenerated and assets migrated. If it is later confirmed that the vendor received warnings a year in advance but did not act, do you think Coinkite should bear compensation responsibility? $BTC #Coldcard #WalletSecurity #TransactionSecurity While BTC remains the central axis of market liquidity, funds are concentrated in selected stocks rather than spreading across all altcoins. In this trend, is the derivatives market showing the differentiation of risk premium before overheated directional betting? Currently, the market is not a broad alt season but a selective capital circulation phase. On the surface, an altcoin rally is mentioned, but actual funds are concentrated only in a few projects with abundant liquidity and clear narratives or catalysts. In terms of relative strength, BTC leads with strong institutional demand and ETH, with SOL leading the high-beta Layer 1 narrative, followed by AI-themed TAO and WLD, HYPE acting as a risk gauge, and retail sentiment indicators DOGE and ZEC. On the other hand, stocks that are not receiving capital inflows continue to face pressure. From a derivative positioning perspective, the key point in this segment is that leverage is concentrated in specific stocks. Funding fees for major stocks remain positive (+), creating a favorable environment for long positions,This week's first validation of the AI industry chain — PLTR — further proves to the market the accelerated commercialization of AI. PLTR's earnings report is very impressive, basically proving that enterprises are willing to pay for AI applications, and also demonstrating that AI is moving from models and computing power into enterprise production processes, accelerating the validation of AI commercialization logic. Yesterday's macro weekly framework mentioned several key factors to watch in PLTR's earnings: enterprise customer growth, AIP adoption, contract scale, commercial revenue, and future guidance. Customer growth shows a synchronized 35% increase with data alignment. The growth of U.S. customers and U.S. commercial revenue shows a significant gap, with revenue about 4 times the number of customers. This indicates high enterprise profitability and profit margins, and the quality and expansion rate of its customers are very optimistic. AIP adoption, judging from customer growth, commercial revenue, U.S. commercial TVC, and commercial remaining contract value (RDV) in the earnings report, sufficiently proves that AIP's role has evolved from early-stage testing to help customer acquisition into a longer-term software deployment, meaning customers are currently willing to expand contracts. Contract scale: total TVC is about 3.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 49%. U.S. commercial TVC is 2.13 billion, up 153% year-over-year. U.S. commercial RDV is 6.24 billion, a synchronized increase of 124%. The previously mentioned explosive 149% enterprise revenue growth this quarter might raise market concerns about concentration, but these two data points prove the growth is not concentrated but sustainable. Commercial revenue, the core content of the earnings report, totals 764 million, up 149% year-over-year and 28% quarter-over-quarter, proving that the enterprise commercial business in the U.S. has entered a very high growth phase. This is the core growth driver for valuation brought by this earnings report. Future guidance: Q3 guidance is 2.16-2.164 billion, originally expected by the market to be around 2 billion, directly exceeding market expectations by 8%. Meanwhile, the full-year guidance was raised from 7.65-7.66 billion to 8.15-8.158 billion, a one-time increase of 500 million. This pace means enterprise Q2 explosion → Q3 continued growth → FY26 further upward revision, opening up the enterprise's future imagination space. Earnings summary: this earnings report tells the market that PLTR's AIP is rapidly converting enterprise AI demand into real contracts, and contract scale is expanding, while contracts are accelerating conversion into commercial revenue. This both validates the enterprise's future AI commercial logic results and increases confidence in the entire U.S. stock AI industry chain's commercial validation. Of course, enterprise growth is not without risks. Currently, growth is concentrated in the U.S. domestic market. Whether it can globalize commercially in the future remains to be seen, which is a point to observe over the next 2-3 years. AI commercial software, as an important link in the AI commercial chain and the most concerned element in this earnings season, benefits from PLTR's positive news, driving the entire AI industry chain. First beneficiaries are enterprise AI software, second beneficiaries are data infrastructure, third beneficiaries are cloud providers and cloud inference, and fourth beneficiaries are hardware facilities and infrastructure vendors. Currently, this week's U.S. stock validation logic is just opening. Next, we need to watch earnings reports from AMD, flash memory, and Datadog to complete this week's full validation chain. PLTR's pre-market stock price has risen 16% this month, showing strong momentum, giving tonight's U.S. stock market a rebound boost! AMD and SpaceX reports are imminent, with Circle closing the show $SNDK $SPCX Scraping off the gold mud and weathered stone carvings, beneath the massive pyramid's earthen cover, a distinct burnt flesh scent of desperate repayment wafts through. I have immersed myself in the sands and catacombs for half a lifetime, touching countless imperial tombs. History always rhymes cruelly and precisely—when an arrogant dynasty begins chiseling gold leaf from the treasury to pay mercenaries' wages, the collapse of that grand narrative is near. The contract carved on the 8-K stele does not lie: the faith giant who once vowed to keep gold forever in the deep palace, in just a few days from late July to early August, chopped off 1,638 BTC relics and threw them into the dust at a cheap price of $63,957 each. If you take these selling traces for [age appraisal], you'll find these are fresh wounds left just days ago. Compared to the minting cost as high as $75,419, each relic's outflow declares to the market: even though the sanctuary still cradles a massive legacy of 842,138 BTC, the cornerstone of faith has long cracked. This is not the first time gems have been plucked from the crown. In early July's storm, they once sold 3,588 relics at once, grabbing $216 million; now, on-chain tunnels between August 2 and 3 show an abnormal transfer of about 299.843 BTC—this is no ordinary tomb raider theft but the empire's fiscal suffocation bloodletting to survive. The 12% preferred stock dividends and buyback promises are like the [trap mechanisms] deep in the tomb chamber, precisely backfiring on the owner the moment liquidity dries up. As long as those preferred stock redemption notes discounted by 10% fail to return to issue price, this "smash the stele for grain" desperate act will not end. More bizarrely, the US stock linked to the neighboring hashrate temple, $XNVDA, also trembles in sync through underground channels. The algorithm-woven totems and the underlying gold's main artery have long been blood-connected; when the hoarding giants start selling assets at a loss to soothe debt sores, the leverage mirror of hashrate hegemony inevitably faces a violent storm. Throughout history, any altar blindly believing in "only buy, never sell" ultimately cannot escape the fate of [civilization collapse] under the dual strangulation of liquidity exhaustion and high-interest debt. The so-called eternal HODL myth, when the debt maturity alarm sounds, is nothing but a forged antique that can be torn apart at any moment. #MSTRSells1638BTC 🌍 Oil prices plunge, can BTC finally breathe a sigh of relief? Don't be too optimistic After Trump's call with the Emir of Qatar, a draft temporary navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz surfaced. Both the US and Iran expressed optimism, and Iran even tentatively agreed to let Europe clear mines. The market immediately reacted: Brent fell below $80, closing today at 78.44, WTI at 74.63, marking three consecutive days of decline. But a drop ≠ a reversal The market is currently trading on the "possible signing," not "already signed." · Mines are not fully cleared, war risk premiums remain high · Empty oil tankers dare not enter the Persian Gulf, global inventories remain thin · The agreement skirts around tough issues like the nuclear program and proxies, and could collapse at any time Oil prices have just shifted from a surge to wide oscillation, with support around $70, and any rebound is fragile. --- 📉 On the crypto side $BTC is hovering around 64,000 (intraday 63,580–64,494), still down about 27% year-to-date, far from the previous high of 126,000. Oil price retreat → inflation pressure eases temporarily → expectations of rate cuts and risk appetite rise, which is a short-term tailwind for BTC and the Nasdaq. But if the agreement falls through, oil prices will rebound in a V-shape, inflation expectations will return, and crypto will get hit again. Don't mistake the oil price drop for a fundamental strengthening; it's just a temporary easing of macro beta pressure. --- 🔑 Next, keep an eye on three things 1. Progress of mine clearance & whether AIS signals return to normal 2. Whether empty oil tankers dare to return to the Persian Gulf 3. Whether the US officially confirms the agreement text Until the boot drops, no reversal can be claimed. $BTC only truly sees risk appetite return if it holds above 64,000; if it falls below 62,000, it means capital is repricing geopolitical risk again. --- Are you adding to your position or waiting? Let's discuss in the comments 👇 #OKX #BTC #CrudeOil #GeopoliticalRisk #TradingStrategy #MacroAnalysis $AMD's biggest problem is not that it's not making money, but that it has spoiled its investors. The first time it scored 90 points, people thought it was really awesome; Later, everyone expected it to score above 90 every time. So when it scored 90 this time, it actually felt a bit average. This is exactly the case with $AMD.US's latest earnings report. Revenue grew 50%, data center surged 107%, which would have been a bombshell in the past. But now the market isn't looking at whether you are growing, but whether you can keep surpassing expectations and constantly amaze everyone. The AI market has entered the second half; investors are buying not today's profits, but the miracles of the coming years. So AMD's stock price falling doesn't mean the market is pessimistic about it, but that the capital market is moving from believing the story to verifying the fulfillment. In the past, being excellent was enough to drive the stock up. Now, excellence is just the entry ticket; you have to be outstanding, even astonishing. To keep rising, you must repeatedly prove you can still create miracles. Otherwise, the stock price will definitely keep dropping.After two U.S. senators requested the SEC to investigate $TRUMP, the most striking aspect of this token is no longer its daily price fluctuations, but the huge gap between the issuer's profits, investor losses, and the remaining market value. On August 4, Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, requesting an investigation into whether $TRUMP involves fraud or improper profits. The data cited in their letter shows that nearly 1 million investors have collectively lost about $3.81 billion, while Trump himself has gained approximately $636 million from the project. These two figures currently belong to the investigation materials cited by the senators and are not amounts the SEC has officially recognized as illegal. However, when placed in the context of the token's current status, the gap remains very obvious. A snapshot from the OKX page shows $TRUMP is about $1.46, down approximately 98.2% from its historical high of $82; the circulating market cap is about $364 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $45.74 million. The $3.81 billion investor losses mentioned by the senators are about 10.5 times the current circulating market cap; the $636 million project revenue is also equivalent to 1.75 times the current market cap. The token price has nearly collapsed to zero, while the income obtained by project-related parties has not synchronized. The supply structure adds another layer of controversy. $TRUMP has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with about 248.25 million currently circulating, accounting for only 24.8%. At project launch, 80% of the tokens were allocated to related entities such as CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight, and are being unlocked gradually according to a multi-year plan. This means that beyond the investigation results, the market will continue to face supply pressure from the release of uncirculated tokens and transfers from related addresses. The current 24-hour trading volume accounts for about 12.6% of the market cap; liquidity has not disappeared, but such trading mostly reflects short-term event-driven transactions and cannot automatically repair losses for long-term holders. Whether the SEC has sufficient jurisdiction is also a key point of this investigation request. SEC staff stated in 2025 that typical meme coins usually do not constitute securities, so holders do not enjoy the same protections under federal securities laws. However, the document also reserved two exceptions: projects cannot evade securities laws solely by labeling as "meme coins," and related transactions should be judged based on actual economic structure; even if tokens are not securities, fraudulent behavior may still be pursued by other federal or state agencies. Therefore, it can only be confirmed that the senators have requested an investigation; it cannot be stated that the SEC has officially filed a case, nor can it be prematurely concluded that a "rug pull" or fraud has occurred. There are three most valuable signals to watch for next: whether the SEC publicly responds and initiates a formal investigation, whether related entity addresses show concentrated transfers, and whether the unlocking speed of uncirculated tokens continues to increase. The issue of political figures issuing tokens has extended from price speculation to profit attribution, information disclosure, and regulatory evasion. Whether the investigation yields results will also directly affect the crypto market structure legislation currently being advanced in the U.S. #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 HBM flash memory orders are booked through 2027, and major mainstream cryptocurrencies have failed to break out over the past three weeks. SK Hynix and SanDisk recently jointly launched the HBF high-bandwidth flash memory new standard. Leading global AI companies have already fully booked HBM and flash memory production capacity through 2027, making the supply-demand gap in the storage industry a settled matter. Boosted by favorable long-term orders, SanDisk surged 10.84% in a single day on August 4, triggering an explosive rally in the storage sector. Bitcoin has been trading in a fixed range of $62,900 to $64,100 over the past three weeks, repeatedly testing the upside but failing to achieve a valid breakout. The logic behind the rise in US storage stocks is clear: AI computing power expansion continuously drives up demand for storage chips; Bitcoin can only passively wait for ETF funds to flow back. Under the hardware supercycle dividend, when will the crypto market finally see a new round of breakout momentum? August 05 20:17 #BTC #ETH #UNI #OKX #Binance #Crypto ADP Post-Event Review: US July ADP actual 44,000, below the forecast of 70,000 and also below the previous value of 98,000. Employment cooling confirmed; short-term logic is lower interest rate pressure and improved risk appetite; however, too weak employment may also turn into growth concerns, so this round only looks at "how much of the first reaction is realized and whether the second reaction can hold." [Macro Path] 10-year US Treasury yield around 4.61%-4.62%, slightly lower than the previous day; US stock futures/index are relatively strong. DXY minute-level points could not be reliably read, so no false values are written. Macro pricing seems more like trading rate cuts/fewer hikes expectations first, rather than recession panic. [First Reaction] BTC: 20:15-20:30 from 64205.99 to 64478.01, highest 64581.43, first segment +0.42%, indicating funds first bought the weak employment positive. ETH: 1872.09 to 1881.02, highest 1885.29, first segment +0.48%, rebound strength slightly higher than BTC. UNI: 3.987 to 4.016, highest 4.020, first segment +0.73%, highest elasticity. [Second Reaction] BTC: 20:31-21:00 almost sideways, low point 64389.65, no obvious retracement. ETH: slight decline to 1879.99, still above support area. UNI: from 4.016 back to 3.994, low point 3.974, second reaction -0.55%, indicating insufficient support above 4.02. [Correction] 18:15 preview judgment of "weak ADP first benefits risk assets" was correct; but UNI's surge and fall indicate altcoins are not suitable to only look at the first segment rally, more attention should be paid to the second segment support later. [Risk Control Observation] BTC focuses on 64580-64770 resistance, ETH on 1885-1902, UNI on 4.02-4.10. If US Treasury yields rise again or nonfarm payroll expectations turn hawkish, ADP rebound is likely to be retraced. No change to the long-term plan this time. For personal review and trading plan only, not investment advice. Michael Saylor, who once believed in "never selling Bitcoin," is now continuously reducing his holdings. According to on-chain data analysis, its related addresses sold about 1,638 BTC (worth approximately $102.4 million) last week, followed by another 299.84 BTC (worth about $18.91 million), and today sold another 1,030 BTC (worth about $66.14 million). Within one week, he sold three consecutive rounds of holdings, selling about 2,968 Bitcoins in total and cashing out approximately $187 million. This series of share reductions was not a sudden decision, but part of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) strategic transformation. In June this year, the company officially launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," completely breaking the previous unwritten rule of "never sell," authorizing up to $5 billion worth of Bitcoin under the current capital plan to be used to replenish US dollar reserves, pay dividends, and repurchase securities. According to the latest selling data, this operation was mainly sold at a loss—the average selling price was about $63,957, roughly 15% lower than the company's overall average holding cost of $75,419, resulting in a paper loss of about $11,462 per Bitcoin. Despite continued selling, Strategy currently holds about 842,138 BTC, valued at approximately $52.65 billion, making it the world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. Michael Saylor is reducing his Bitcoin holdings, but this money is not for bearishness—it's to pay off debts, interest,Palantir surged 29%, igniting the growth momentum in the US stock market, while hot sectors in the crypto space continue to fade one after another On August 4, Palantir, a popular growth stock in the US market, surged 29% in a single day. Its Q2 revenue reached $1.94 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations, and it raised its full-year revenue guidance, reigniting the hype around US growth stocks. The rotation rhythm among US stock sectors is smooth, with software, computing power, optical communication, and storage chips taking turns as the market's main themes. In contrast, in the crypto market, recent hot topics like meme coins, public chains, and MEME have all been short-lived. After each round of hype ends, the sector quickly cools down. Every wave of momentum in the US stock market is supported by earnings reports, orders, and industry cycles as the underlying foundation; crypto hot sectors rely solely on speculative sentiment without lasting fundamental support. US stocks continuously produce doubling stocks, so why are crypto hot trends always fleeting?CLARITY Bill Progress Stalled, Senate Divisions Widen The US crypto market structure bill CLARITY has once again hit a snag in the Senate. The market originally hoped for a full Senate vote before the August recess, but Majority Leader Thune scheduled the agenda for personnel appointments and sanctions against Russia. Procedurally, the Senate cannot debate multiple controversial bills simultaneously, so the CLARITY vote is basically confirmed to be postponed until September. This is already its Nth delay; after the House passed it with a high vote of 294 last July, the Senate has dragged its feet for a whole year without passing it. The root cause of the deadlock boils down to three unresolved issues. The Democrats insist on ethics provisions restricting the crypto business interests of the president and senior officials—Trump's family was revealed to have over a billion dollars in crypto-related income, which the Republicans are unwilling to include in the bill. Second is the DeFi developer protection clause, which prosecutors believe would weaken criminal investigation capabilities. Third is the old issue of stablecoin yields; the banking industry fears deposit outflows, and Coinbase's annual USDC rewards income of over a billion dollars hangs in the balance. Within the Republican Party, Hawley and Paul also do not support it, and the number of Democratic votes needed to reach the 60-vote threshold is still far off. Polymarket's probability of passage has dropped from 64% in June to around 40%. The market's reaction is very honest. $BTC is oscillating above $64,000; on August 4, ETF net inflows exceeded $170 million, with IBIT alone buying $110 million. Institutions are holding firm against selling pressure, but Bernstein has already warned that further delays in the bill could trigger a new round of sell-offs. Ethereum is even worse off, hovering around $1,870, down more than 60% from last August's near $5,000 peak, and the ETH/BTC ratio remains at a yearly low. Regulatory uncertainty is weighing down altcoin valuations, with capital clearly preferring to shelter in BTC. The core conflict is actually very clear: the technical framework of the bill was agreed upon by both parties long ago, and there is no dispute over how to divide power between the SEC and CFTC. The real bottleneck is political. The crypto interests of the Trump family make it impossible for Democrats to easily approve it, and 2026 is a midterm election year, so the legislative window after the September session will only narrow further. Missing this wave means CLARITY is basically unlikely to pass within the year. US crypto regulation will have to continue feeling its way through enforcement cases, and this unresolved state acts as a continuous invisible tax on prices.August 05 20:17 #BTC #ETH #UNI #OKX #Binance #Crypto US July ADP Employment Report: Actual 44,000, below the forecast of 70,000 and previous 98,000. The macro implication is straightforward: private employment continues to cool down. The market's first reaction is to trade "reduced rate hike pressure, short-term benefit for risk assets," but employment being too weak also raises growth concerns, so it cannot be treated as a one-sided positive. [Macro Reaction] The 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.61%-4.62%, slightly down from the previous day; US stock futures/index are relatively strong. The minute-level USD data this round did not reach a reliable point, so no fabrication; judging from the Treasury yield decline and risk appetite, the USD currently shows no obvious strong pressure. [Crypto Market Actual Reaction] BTC: After 20:15, the first phase rose from 64205.99 to 64478.01, with a high of 64581.43, about +0.42%; from 20:31 to 21:00 basically sideways, indicating the weak ADP brought a rebound, but the follow-through buying was not strong. ETH: After 20:15, rose from 1872.09 to 1881.02, with a high of 1885.29, about +0.48%; the second phase slightly retreated to 1879.99, still above support. UNI: After 20:15, rose from 3.987 to 4.016, with a high of 4.020, about +0.73%; then fell back to 3.994, the second reaction about -0.55%, the pullback after the spike was clearly weaker than BTC/ETH. [Pre-Event Verification] At 18:15, the forecast was "If ADP is below expectations, risk assets will initially benefit, BTC/ETH/UNI likely to rebound first," which was verified correctly; the shortcoming was UNI's faster second pullback, so the risk of altcoins spiking and then falling should be emphasized more. [Follow-up Plan] For BTC, watch if 64580-64770 can break out with volume; for ETH, watch if 1885-1902 can hold; for UNI, watch 4.02-4.10 resistance, if the spike does not continue, treat it as a rebound resistance. ADP does not trigger a long-term plan reset; Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls is a stronger pricing point. For personal review and trading plan only, not investment advice. "BTC's Most Expensive 5K: Direction Hasn't Emerged Yet, Beware of Account Wear First" Wednesday, August 5, 2026 Q3 · Issue 92 Aspirin · Cyclical Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective BTC is currently around 64.1K, only about $200 above the rising 200-week moving average; the resistance band at weeks 20/21 has dropped to 68.6K to 68.9K. The two boundaries are only about 5K apart. Many see this narrow range and want to trade back and forth. What I see is a very costly market: both bulls and bears have reasons, but neither has confirmation. If you force a bet, you might guess the direction right but end up losing on entry. 1. Why is this 5K expensive? Chasing longs at 66.5K, with the first resistance at 68.8K, the potential upside is about 3.5%; if the stop loss is set below 63.5K, you face about a 4.5% drawdown. The risk-reward ratio is less than 1. Chasing shorts directly at 64.2K is also uncomfortable. The price hasn't confirmed a breakdown yet, and right below is the 200-week moving average, equivalent to selling above long-term support. Even if the bearish direction is ultimately correct, shorts might be cleared out first by a rebound. No need to argue bulls vs bears here; just do the math. The potential gain in the middle of the range is less than the stop loss distance; frequent trading will only turn your judgment edge into fees and slippage. The two weekly moving averages continue to converge. The 200-week moving average is slowly rising, while the bear resistance band keeps moving down. Each week the price stays in this wedge, more positions chase the rally or bottom; once a boundary is effectively broken, stop losses and covering orders will release simultaneously, and volatility will return. 2. Which side will August amplify? In the past three mid-term years, BTC fell about 17.9%, 9.2%, and 13.9% in August respectively. With only three samples, I won't short just because the calendar flips to August. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops $ETH The latest non-farm payrolls added only 44,000, showing obvious weakness in hiring, employment is not doing well 🤮 But wages for those who can switch jobs have still risen to 7%, with salaries remaining high. No wonder the Fed's statements remain tough; even if employment is weak and wage inflation can't be contained, they still hesitate to cut rates. What can they rely on to keep holding firm? I bet they won't raise rates in September…🤮#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 $BTC $ETH "OKB staking yield is only 2.6%, aren't you afraid of eroding supporters' confidence?" 1. ElizaOS founder: ai16z token is "completely dead," and the related foundation is gradually winding down operations. My understanding: ai16z was a star project in the last round of AI Agent, a leading ecosystem player in the industry. Yet in the end, the supported project still went to zero, and the ones hurt in the end are us small retail investors. So I often say, old ways of thinking don't apply now. Whether it's Trump media or ai16z, it doesn't mean they are much smarter than us, nor does it mean they will backstop small retail investors. We should demystify them. In the next round, I only want to focus on two types of projects: 1. Projects that can continuously generate cash flow and stable income; 2. Projects with ETFs or clear institutional funding support; If a project only has a story and institutional endorsement, at most participate short-term, never hold to death. Slow down, believe less in stories, and don't blindly trust institutions. 2. OKX Flash Earn Lite launches RE "Stake to Earn," with OKB staking yield only 2.6%, staking 200 tokens yields 0.85 tokens; My question: What is the platform doing???? Such a low yield is just annoying, right? In fact, holders can fully accept that some periods or even consecutive periods have no OKB staking pool. The platform can reduce the frequency of OKB staking participation, concentrate originally scattered rewards, have longer intervals, but higher yields each time. If the yield is this low, it's better not to have it at all. But the platform often launches such activities that affect holders' expectations and emotions. One low yield might be okay, but repeated occurrences consume not just one yield but holders' expectations for future benefits. OKB has not yet formed a strong enough value capture that the market can clearly perceive; much of its value still lies in future expectations and has not been fully realized. I believe there will be a good reaction once realized, but before that, it is a platform token linked to the platform. When the platform has good news, it rises a bit; when the platform disappoints, holders' expectations are affected. Precisely because the real value capture has not been fully realized, shouldn't the platform maintain supporters' confidence more? Ultimately, 2.6% yield may not be much, but the signal it sends is very bad. It's really annoying. That's the complaint; now for suggestions. Suggestion: Reduce staking frequency and create exclusive staking activities for OKB holders. One, it doesn't affect your exposure agreements with project parties; two, it strengthens the feeling that OKB enjoys scarce rights. According to staking rules, the more OKB staked, the lower the yield. You can limit OKB holders by staking amount based on holding time, enjoying different yield ratios. This way, OKB's scarcity, long-term holding motivation, stronger promotion by holders, and negative sentiment from low yields will all improve comprehensively, while the platform doesn't pay much extra. I understand OKX is currently pursuing compliance and that Flash Earn activities need to balance project exposure and user participation. But compliance, user acquisition, and maintaining OKX supporters' confidence are not conflicting, right? $OKB ————————— Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting cognition. Looking forward to different viewpoints.I am Cige. AMD's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock fell 8% after hours. An old script is playing out again: good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. AMD's earnings figures Revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $1.66, both higher than market expectations. Data center business revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of the company's total revenue, with a gross margin maintained at 56%. The Q3 revenue guidance is about $13 billion, higher than the market average expectation but below some institutions' higher forecasts. After the earnings release, the stock fell more than 8% after hours. Why did it fall despite exceeding expectations? Market expectations had been pulled up too high in advance, and the guidance did not further surpass them, so the market was already pricing in higher expectations. When the "exceeding expectations" margin is not large enough, it is interpreted as "not good enough." AMD's problem is that high growth has already been priced in. Impact on SanDisk AMD's 8% drop after hours directly pressures SanDisk's earnings tonight. The storage sector has seen huge recent gains; SanDisk rose from 998 to 1468, with expectations fully priced in. AMD's movement is a signal: if the earnings just meet expectations rather than greatly exceed them, profit-taking will be very intense. How to handle the 1331.77 short position Set the stop loss above 1550. Do not heavily bet on direction before earnings. The options market implies post-earnings volatility of about 15% to 21%. If the directional judgment is wrong, the stop loss is the bottom line. Take profits in two batches: if after earnings the price falls back to the 1400 to 1420 range, close half; if it falls below 1350, exit completely. If after earnings there is a volume breakout above 1550, it means the short structure is broken, exit unconditionally. Earnings are the biggest variable; do not heavily bet on direction before earnings. Cige has finished speaking. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK From mid-July to early August 2026, $BTC basically fluctuated within a range of $62,000–$66,000, and $ETH within $1850–$1950, moving back and forth within this few-hundred-dollar box. The daily chart looks like it's stuck, with volatility dropping to a near one-year low. It’s unlike the typical crypto behavior with ±5% swings; it’s more like an "elastic stablecoin." The essence is: the bear market's downtrend phase has ended → retail investors exit, institutions take over for arbitrage → macro conditions remain deadlocked without catalysts → sellers have no chips to dump, buyers have no reason to chase → volatility is suppressed into a box by market makers. Therefore, most people now prefer trading US stock tokens, such as the highly volatile Sandisk $SNDK. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen for 4 consecutive trading days, with over 70% of altcoins in the top 100 by market cap declining within 24 hours. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has completed four consecutive days of gains, with a single-day increase of 6.5% on 8-04. ARM surged 17.36%, Coherent, a leader in optical communications, rose 12.1%, and the hardware sector's profit momentum has fully ignited market funds. The excitement remains confined to the US stock market; among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, 72% of altcoins closed lower within 24 hours. Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $12.3 million in a single day, with long-term institutional funds continuously withdrawing from the crypto market. Currently, Samsung and SK Hynix's storage capacity for 2027 has already been pre-booked by major AI companies, making the supply-demand gap in the hardware industry very clear and investment risks much more controllable. Altcoins lack real business operations and order data support; their price movements rely solely on short-term speculative trading, quickly returning to weak consolidation once the hype fades. What kind of major industry catalyst is needed to activate the long-dormant altcoin sector? #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Earnings surge 92%, stock price crashes in 15 minutes—Who’s running from SPCX this round? Revenue doubled, losses halved, but after-hours plunged 8%—SPCX’s script has nothing to do with the earnings report. Tomorrow, 912 million shares will be unlocked, instantly expanding the float by 1.4 times. This isn’t an earnings rally; it’s a "who runs fastest" game. First: The market has long "bought the rumor, sold the news" A week before the earnings release, SPCX had already rebounded 9.5% from the $107 low. Seven million-dollar-level addresses had already built long positions at an average price around $112. Smart money knew early; retail investors were the last to find out. At the moment the earnings came out, all the good news was priced in—big players started selling. Four million-dollar-level longs liquidated their positions that day, shrinking holdings by 66%. Second: Tomorrow is the real "big test"—912 million shares unlocked On August 6, 912 million shares held by SpaceX employees and early investors will be unlocked. Equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. This is the largest lock-up expiration in the history of the U.S. capital market. Currently, only about 600 million SPCX shares are tradable in the market. Starting tomorrow, up to over 900 million new shares may flood in. Supply instantly more than doubles. And this is just the first wave. SpaceX’s lock-up schedule has 15 unlock dates, continuing until June 2027. Third: Technicals have already given you the answer ATH 225.64 → current price around 110, down 51% IPO price 135 → already below issuance price Market cap shrunk from nearly 3 trillion to 1.4 trillion Daily chart is below moving averages, with a complete downtrend channel. 107-110 is the last support zone. If it breaks 105 tomorrow, next stops are 100 or even 95. Short positions have piled up to $24.6 billion, accounting for 34% of the float. Wall Street is collectively shorting SPCX. Key levels Support: 107-110 → 105 → 100 Resistance: 115-120 → 125 → 130+ Short-term: If it breaks 107 with volume, consider light short positions targeting 100-105, stop loss above 112. If it strongly holds 107-110 (long lower shadow + low volume), consider light short-term longs targeting 115-118, stop loss below 105. Swing: Wait for price stability after unlock. If it holds 105-107 and recovers 120, consider building longs targeting 130-140. If it breaks 105 and accelerates down, continue to watch 95-100. Mid to long-term: Fundamentals (Starlink + AI + Starship) look promising long-term. But wait for unlock panic to subside before entering; don’t catch a falling knife in the crossfire. Early Preview! EIP-8361 "Circuit Breaker" Proposal — Ethereum's "Zero Interest Rate" Experiment and Consensus Defense Battle Core Mechanism: When ETH staking rate reaches 50%, new issuance drops to zero 1. Proposal Background: Preventing "Staking Black Hole" and Economic Centralization The core goal of EIP-8361 is to address Ethereum's long-standing "success headache." Currently, $ETH is priced around $4,150, with staking rate approaching 40%. *Original intention: To curb unlimited expansion of liquid staking tokens (LST) and restaking protocols. If over 50% of ETH is locked network-wide, market liquidity will dry up, and a few protocols could achieve de facto "consensus hegemony" by controlling more than half of the staked amount. *Mechanism: Once the 50% threshold is triggered, stakers will no longer receive system issuance rewards in $ETH; earnings will only come from Priority Fees and MEV. 2. Macro Impact: Drastic Revision of Valuation Logic *Bullish: Extreme deflation expectations. Issuance dropping to zero means $ETH will enter an "absolute deflation" era. Combined with the existing EIP-1559 burn mechanism, Ethereum could become the world's hardest digital asset. *Bearish: Yield vacuum. For institutions relying on staking yields (such as $BLK BlackRock ETF holders) and retail users, the disappearance of the risk-free rate may cause capital outflows to $SOL or other high-yield public chains. *Ecosystem reshuffle: Protocols like $LDO (Lido) and $EIGEN (EigenLayer) will face challenges to their moats, and the existing competition will shift to a brutal fight over "MEV extraction efficiency." 3. Cross-Market Linkage Warning This proposal has sparked debate over "decentralization premium" and "yield premium." If $ETH loses its staking yield advantage, capital may flow to the S&P 500 (currently at 7,700 points) for 4.5% treasury-like yields or to $BTC (currently at $92,400) seeking pure value storage. 4. Today's Top 20 Most Volatile Coins Affected by the EIP-8361 debate and market volatility, the following 20 coins have the highest volatility today: 1. $ETH (Ethereum) — Center of the proposal storm, intense battle around the $4,000 mark. 2. $LDO (Lido) — Staking logic impaired expectation, down over 14% today. 3. $EIGEN (EigenLayer) — Core of restaking track, capital worries about future yield models. 4. $SSV (SSV Network) — Decentralized staking infrastructure, as a "consensus security" solution, volatility surged. 5. $ENA (Ethena) — Synthetic dollar protocol, affected by $ETH staking yield volatility, hedging costs jumped. 6. $SOL (Solana) — As a main competitor, absorbed some "yield-chasing" funds flowing out of Ethereum. 7. $PENDLE (Pendle) — Yield trading platform, today's volume hit a record high, players fiercely betting on future yields. 8. $RETH (Rocket Pool) — Decentralized staking representative, premium experienced sharp fluctuations due to EIP impact. 9. $UNI (Uniswap) — With increased $ETH spot volatility, DEX trading volume surged, boosting fee income. 10. $POL (Polygon) — Benefiting from Polymarket financing and Ethereum internal conflicts, sentiment is mixed. 11. $PEPE (Pepe) — Risk sentiment indicator, leveraged speculative funds withdraw during market instability. 12. $WIF (Dogwifhat) — Solana meme leader, volatile with $SOL strength. 13. $TAO (Bittensor) — AI sector taking profits at highs under macro shadow. 14. $WDC (Western Digital's parent company) — At $1,409. Massive turnover above thousand-dollar mark, driven by US semiconductor sector turmoil. 15. $MSTR (MicroStrategy) — Following $BTC volatility, as a high-leverage US stock, daily range reached 6.5%. 16. $ARB (Arbitrum) — L2 leader, capital worries about Ethereum base layer changes affecting L2 security sharing. 17. $LINK (Chainlink) — Oracle infrastructure showing strong resilience in turbulent markets. 18. $TIA (Celestia) — Modular public chain, if Ethereum staking deteriorates, market begins reassessing modular value. 19. $MKR (MakerDAO) — Stablecoin governance token, long-term value re-evaluated amid Ethereum deflation expectations. 20. $SNDK (SanDisk) — Core of storage sector volatility, squeezed by AI demand and macro liquidity. --- Recommendations: EIP-8361 is a "bitter pill" for Ethereum's long-term survival. *Short-term: Reduce holdings in projects heavily dependent on staking scale like $LDO to avoid emotional stampedes. *Mid-term: Focus on $PENDLE, whose yield hedging tools will become institutional necessities. *Long-term: If the proposal passes, $ETH will complete its transformation from an "interest-bearing asset" to an "extremely scarce asset." Note: The 2026 market cares not for sympathy but liquidity. Facing the 50% red line, only hedging and derivatives are your shield. #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 $ETH $MSTR $BTC #SanDiskEarningsEve, HBF and storage shortage spark heated discussion $SNDK This SanDisk grid trade has been running for most of the day, entered at 1391, now at 1465, with a floating profit of 17%. The grid has been triggered 509 times. I plan to stop it by 11 PM. SanDisk's earnings report comes out early tomorrow morning; holding the position now is essentially betting on the direction. Grid trades are suitable for sideways markets, not for betting on a one-sided move. It's better to take profits before the earnings and decide again once the direction is clear. Lately, the market is very familiar with the "beat expectations but price drops" scenario—$AMD and SpaceX are precedents. If SanDisk's earnings explode but the price drops after hours, the grid will be directly broken below the lower bound. If earnings miss expectations, a sharp drop is inevitable. In either case, holding a grid through earnings is not a good choice. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops One of the easiest ways to lose money in crypto is assuming a low token price automatically means it's a bargain. 🚨 Price alone can't tell you whether an asset is truly cheap or expensive. To understand a project's long-term potential, you need to dig into its tokenomics. A project can have innovative tech, a buzzing community, and a strong narrative—but if a massive wave of new tokens keeps flooding circulation, that extra supply can create constant selling pressure. Today's price reflects the current market. Tomorrow's supply could shape tomorrow's performance. 📊 👀 Projects with major token unlock events to watch: $ARB • $OP • $STRK • $ZK • $BLAST • $MANTA • $ALT • $DYM • $TIA • $SUI • $APT • $SEI • $PYTH • $JUP • $W • $EIGEN • $REZ • $ETHFI 📌 Sectors I'm tracking closely: 🌐 DeFi & Real World Assets $ONDO • $MKR • $AAVE • $UNI • $PENDLE • $ENA • $SNX • $CRV • $COMP • $LDO • $RPL 🤖 AI & DePIN $TAO • $FET • $NEAR • $RNDR • $AKT • $AIOZ • $GRT • $THETA • $FIL • $AR 🐸 Memecoins $PE • $WIF • $BONK • $FLOKI • $POPCAT • $BOME • $DOGE • $SHIB • $MOG • $BRETT Before opening a position, ask yourself: ✅ What percentage of the total supply is already in circulation? ✅ What's the project's fully diluted valuation (FDV)? ✅ When are the next token unlocks scheduled? ✅ Who receives those unlocked tokens, and could they create selling pressure? Strong tokenomics don't guarantee success, but understanding supply dynamics can help you make smarter decisions and avoid unexpected dilution. Focus on research, risk management, and fundamentals—not just a low token price. 📚 Educational content. Not financial advice. Always do your own research. #DailyOrbit #Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Tokenomics #DYOR #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops 📌 【On-Chain Observation】MARA Transfers 6,000 BTC, Mining Company Asset Management Becomes New Focus On August 5th, according to on-chain monitoring, Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings transferred 6,000 BTC to the Two Prime address within 5 hours, valued at approximately $384.6 million, accounting for 16.5% of its total holdings (about 36,300 BTC). --- 🔍 Key Insight: Transfer ≠ Sell This transfer is more likely related to asset management, institutional custody, or capital strategy adjustments rather than a simple sell-off. From the market reaction, BTC price showed no obvious panic, with intraday volatility around $950 (1.5% amplitude), currently consolidating near 64,000. --- 📊 Technical Snapshot · Current price: ~ $64,070 · Intraday high: 64,534 / low: 63,581 · Hourly moving averages: MA5 / MA10 / MA20 are converging between 64,078-64,160, awaiting directional choice · Key breakout zone: $64,500-65,000 · Support below: 63,500, then 62,200 Volume has noticeably shrunk compared to previous days, indicating the large transfer did not trigger concentrated selling pressure. --- 🧠 Deep Trend: Mining Companies Are Shifting from "Sellers" to "BTC Whales" In the past, mining companies relied on selling BTC to sustain operations, but now more companies treat it as a core asset on their balance sheets. MARA holds over 36,000 BTC, effectively approaching a large-scale Bitcoin reserve institution. However, holding tens of thousands of BTC also brings new challenges: · How to improve capital efficiency? · How to reduce risk and implement financial management? This transfer to Two Prime may represent mining companies exploring BTC financialization paths rather than simple long-term storage. --- 📌 Summary For the market, this reflects the maturity of the Bitcoin ecosystem—the focus has expanded from "who is buying BTC" to "how BTC holders manage BTC." From ETF inflows to corporate reserves, and now mining company asset strategies, Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a trading asset to an institutional-grade asset. In the short term, BTC remains consolidating near 64,000, awaiting macro signals to confirm direction. Large on-chain transfers remind us that every move by large holders is becoming a key variable influencing market sentiment. --- ⚠️ The above is personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; always do your own research (DYOR). #BTC #MARA #miners #onchaindata #bitcoinreserves #institutionalfunds Terra peaked at 43% LUNA stake at something like 15% APR & 10,000 airdrop and liquidity mining schemes layered on top of staking while being the hottest ponzu in crypto...also having in-protocol delegation and in-protocol LST so less risk...also being in a low-interest-rate QE/covid subsidy macro environment that we'll probably never get again in our lifetimes... there is basically no reason to think ETH staking will ever get to 50% no less 100%, just a bunch of hysterical bullshit....$ETH #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates Fundamental Research Report $SHIB / Shiba Inu (Meme/Payment) $3.20 Straight to the point: Shiba Inu ($SHIB) overall score 49/100, rating Early Project, insufficient validation. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized. Shiba Inu (token $SHIB), Meme/Payment sector. Focused on ETH Meme + Shibarium. Competitors include DOGE, FLOKI. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction value $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days. User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Shiba Inu $3.00B, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. FDV: Shiba Inu $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. Annual revenue: Shiba Inu $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Shiba Inu undisclosed, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. In summary: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Derived from public data, not investment advice. Core indicator changes over 30% invalidate conclusions. Report finished, please savor it. #FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit #On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBM and storage shortages continue to be market focal points The $SNDK SanDisk grid strategy has been running for more than half a day, with 1391 positions opened, currently priced at 1465, floating profit about 17%. So far, the grid has executed 509 trades, and I plan to end this strategy before 11 PM tonight. SanDisk will announce its earnings early tomorrow morning. Continuing to hold the position now is essentially no longer running the grid but betting on the earnings direction. Grid strategies are suitable for volatile sideways markets and are not ideal for handling such high-volatility events. Rather than gambling on the outcome, it's better to lock in profits first and then formulate a new plan after the earnings release and direction become clear. Recently, the market has repeatedly played out the same script—earnings beat expectations, but the stock price falls. $AMD and SpaceX are typical examples. Even if SanDisk delivers impressive results, if the market has already priced in the good news, there may still be profit-taking pressure after hours; and if earnings fall short of expectations, the decline is often more pronounced. In any case, continuing to hold a grid strategy during earnings means taking on additional and uncontrollable risks. Often, locking in existing profits is more important than gambling on the next candlestick. #DailyOrbit #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH 🔥 Italy's largest bank "abandons" IBIT to invest in ETH staking, institutional portfolio logic has changed Intesa Sanpaolo cut IBIT common shares by 94% in Q2, but tripled its ETHB holdings — this is not bearish on crypto, but a shift from "buying beta" to "capturing alpha" by institutions. --- ▸ IBIT common shares: 646,809 shares → 40,723 shares (-93.7%), market value shrank from $24.85M to $1.36M ▸ New IBIT put options: 500,000 put shares, valued at $16.65M — hedging or expressing short-term caution ▸ ETHB (staked ETH ETF): 116,200 shares → 349,600 shares (+200%), market value $7.1M ▸ ARKB: basically unchanged, still holding 3.47M shares ($67.63M), remains the largest crypto holding ▸ SOL staking ETF: 2,817 shares → 7 shares, basically cleared out --- Key insight: Not fleeing BTC, but optimizing allocation structure Intesa has not fully exited. ARKB was barely sold, indicating a continued long-term exposure to BTC. But swapping IBIT common shares for ETHB is very clear logic: BTC ETF = pure price exposure (β) ETHB = price exposure + staking yield (β+α) With ETH annual staking yield around 2-3%, institutions bear crypto volatility but ETHB also earns extra yield. For bank funds, "yielding volatile assets" are more attractive than "purely volatile assets." Also, IBIT call options were cut from 2.5M shares to 18,000 shares, while 500,000 new put shares were opened, indicating short-term caution on BTC price but unwillingness to fully exit. --- Two signals to the market 1. ETH staking narrative is heating up among institutions BlackRock's ETHB only listed on Nasdaq in February this year, with AUM about $560M. Intesa, as Italy's largest bank (total assets €992.7B), tripling its position is a vote from traditional finance for "yielding crypto assets." 2. The "blind buy" phase of BTC ETFs may be over IBIT was previously the institutional first choice for BTC allocation, now major banks are reallocating to competitors (ARKB) + derivatives hedging. This shows institutions are no longer satisfied with "buy and hold," starting refined management and tactical adjustments. --- In one sentence Intesa's reallocation is not a signal of a crypto winter, but a sign that institutional crypto allocation is moving from "rough" to "refined." ETH staking ETFs are becoming the new favorite of bank funds. --- Do you prefer pure β exposure to BTC, or the β+ yield model of ETH staking?👇06｜What truly deserves concern is credit, not capital expenditure itself This round of decline is not entirely without fundamental basis. Rising real interest rates, widening corporate bond spreads, and increasing CDS prices indicate that the credit market has indeed started to worry about the financing pressure of AI construction. If future data center construction mainly relies on debt, then the AI cycle will increasingly resemble the internet bubble period: Companies expand through debt, and once there is an imbalance in computing power supply and demand or project returns decline, financing tightens immediately, and capital expenditure quickly collapses accordingly. Therefore, what really needs to be observed is not how large the cloud providers' capital expenditure figures are, but whether these capital expenditures can be converted into operating cash flow. If computing power contracts continue to increase in price, GPU utilization remains high, and cloud providers' operating cash flow continues to accelerate, then most construction can still be completed relying on internal cash flow. Only when operating cash flow stops improving and companies have to borrow heavily to maintain construction does the AI capital cycle truly begin to become dangerous. 07｜HBM and long-term supply agreements are changing the memory cycle AI competition depends not only on who owns the most GPUs but also on who can secure enough HBM. For fixed computing power, more and faster memory usually means higher token output. Therefore, HBM has become a key resource in the competition among Amazon, Google, AMD, and NVIDIA. Cloud providers are signing long-term supply agreements, known as LTAs, with memory manufacturers. In past memory cycles, after prices dropped, customers often renegotiated or even tore up contracts. But now, the risk of breaking LTAs has clearly increased. Because if HBM becomes scarce again in the future, customers who previously defaulted may not get enough capacity allocation. For cloud providers competing for AI market share, losing HBM supply could be far more serious than paying some extra procurement costs. This means the business model of the memory industry may be changing: Customers are willing to sacrifice short-term low prices in exchange for long-term supply security; memory manufacturers sacrifice some spot price gains for more stable revenue and capacity utilization. The traditional memory cycle may not disappear, but its volatility pattern might differ from the past. 08｜Why this environment is especially favorable to NVIDIA The market’s current pricing of NVIDIA implicitly assumes: Current profits are at an unsustainable cyclical peak, and future GPU prices, sales, and gross margins will significantly decline. But NVIDIA’s advantage is no longer just chip performance. NVIDIA GPUs have the most mature software ecosystem, the most active secondary leasing market, and the easiest residual value assessment. Therefore, when data center projects need financing, creditors are usually more willing to accept NVIDIA GPUs as underlying assets. NVIDIA is also participating in more data center projects, cloud provider financing, land and power matching, and equity investments in AI companies. It is transforming from a pure chip supplier into an organizer of the AI infrastructure ecosystem. As long as the financing environment is not completely closed, NVIDIA is the easiest to help customers obtain funds; if financing tightens and new computing power construction slows, the scarcity and leasing value of existing NVIDIA GPUs may actually increase further. This is why the logic that "credit tightening must be negative for NVIDIA" is not as straightforward as it seems. 09｜AI model companies also find it hard to hit the brakes voluntarily Cutting-edge model competition is a typical arms race. For companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, etc., buying too much computing power means burning excessive cash, but buying too little may mean falling behind in model capabilities. Once competitors complete larger-scale training with more computing power, technological leadership can be reversed within months. So as long as funding allows, model companies find it hard to voluntarily stop purchasing GPUs. This is not because every company is sure computing power will immediately generate returns, but because insufficient computing power may directly cause the company to lose its lead in products, users, and financing markets. AI companies buy computing power both to pursue growth and to buy survival rights. 10｜The real risk signals are actually very clear The AI infrastructure logic is not unfalsifiable. The signals to watch most closely in the future include: First, whether GPU leasing prices continue to decline sharply. Second, whether companies begin to publicly state GPU oversupply or underutilization. Third, whether new prices for cloud providers’ contract renewals are lower than the original contracts. Fourth, whether the overall token demand from OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, Cursor, and open-source inference clouds stagnates. Fifth, whether cloud providers’ operating cash flow stops improving and capital expenditure starts to rely heavily on debt. Sixth, whether continual learning and high sample efficiency technologies significantly reduce the computing power needed for large model training. Seventh, whether data center construction faces stricter power, water, and regulatory constraints. Once these indicators weaken simultaneously, the AI capital cycle may truly reach a turning point. The current problem is that stock prices have already priced in this outcome in advance, but most industry data have not yet reached that point. 11｜The market cycle itself is also compressed by AI Now many investors input news, earnings reports, and industry information into Claude or other models, letting AI quickly judge positives and negatives. The same model’s interpretation of the same news usually does not differ much, resulting in large amounts of capital reaching the same conclusion in a very short time. Industry expectation trades that used to take two or three years can now experience rise, crowding, realization, and collapse within six weeks. Fundamental cycles may not speed up, but narrative and price cycles have significantly shortened. This is also one reason why AI hardware stocks are so volatile currently: Stock prices can complete a full round of gains before real orders land, and can complete a full round of valuation cuts before fundamentals worsen. Short-term stock prices are increasingly difficult to directly represent industry trends. $SPCX $SNDK $BTC #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ The moist soil clings to my cheek, and through the optical sight three thousand meters away, the heavy tactical target codenamed SpaceX has silently completed its second reloading. After lurking in the snow shelter for two full quarters, my anemometer finally caught a violent airflow anomaly. This post-IPO giant delivered $7.81 billion in firepower output in Q2, a year-over-year surge of 92%; more crucially, hemorrhage control—the operating loss sharply narrowed from 970 million in the previous period to 143 million. To a sniper’s eye, this isn’t just dull ledger fluctuation; it’s the arterial bleeding inside the target being instantly clamped shut, a kill signal as vital signs return to peak. An even more dangerous move hides above the stratosphere. Its “Starmind” space-based micro-compute payload, bound with NVIDIA, effectively elevates the military-grade fire control computing array to near-Earth orbit. On the low-orbit battlefield, traditional ground compute shelters are like open trenches; facing the omnidirectional sweep of space-based surveillance, there is no defense line. My secondary sight simultaneously locks onto the linked target $XGOOGL. As a multi-axis reflector on the capital alliance front, $XGOOGL’s trading spotlight is violently shaking. Yet I still hold the safety firmly, keeping my pulse at forty-five beats per minute. True insiders never take their eyes off the environmental parameters on the dashboard. Look closely: August 6 is an extremely dangerous crosswind point—the initial restricted stock unlocking window. Up to 20% of restricted shares will gain free sell rights. The original capital lurking earliest in the trenches has chambers loaded with already doubled profit bullets. At this moment, a dense barrage of sweeping sell pressure is bound to strike. In the hail of bullets, blind charges are the worst taboo. Before the profit-loss ratio reaches one to five, any rash trigger pull is just making yourself a live target for the opponent. Veterans hiding in the grass wait for the August 6 sell pressure storm to wash away the silt, to see who retreats and surrenders chips, and who quietly resupplies ammo under shell craters. Bullets are chambered, wind speed level three, target steady in the crosshairs. #SpaceXBeatEstimates This round of AI crash is not supported by the data Over the past month, many AI hardware stocks have retreated 40% or more from their highs. The market is trading a very pessimistic story: AI capital expenditure has been excessive, GPUs are about to be oversupplied, open-source models are destroying business models, cloud providers can only maintain construction through debt, and Nvidia's current profits are at an unsustainable cyclical peak. The problem is that, at least based on currently observable industry data, this story has not been validated. On the contrary, GPU rental prices, token usage, difficulty in obtaining computing power, and cloud providers' operating cash flow still point to one conclusion: The real demand for AI infrastructure has not slowed down, and market prices are clearly diverging from industry fundamentals. 01｜The market first misread Meta's GPU leasing After Meta prepared to lease out some GPU computing power, the market quickly concluded: Meta has idle capacity, AI demand is below expectations, and capital expenditure may be cut in the future. But subsequent disclosures from Meta do not support this judgment; it has not cut capital expenditure, nor has there been a noticeable contraction on the supply chain side. A more reasonable explanation is that Meta found a huge price gap between early low-priced computing power contracts and current spot GPU rental prices. When the market is willing to pay far above contract costs for the same GPUs, leasing some computing power is not because it is unused, but because the return on this business is very high. Meta leasing computing power may indicate not insufficient demand, but that computing power has become an asset that can be monetized independently. 02｜GPU prices have not fallen as the market expected In the past two years, even the most optimistic investors generally believed that with increased supply and new generation chip releases, old GPU rental prices should slowly decline. The reality is completely different. In interviews, a popular AI startup rented thousands of B200 GPUs a few months ago at about $2 per GPU hour. About seven months later, it prepared to rent almost the same cluster, with a quote close to $4 per GPU hour. The same GPUs, similar cluster size, rental prices rose about 50% to 60% in just over half a year. Some cloud reasoning companies even expect that when existing contracts expire, the cost to renew Blackwell computing power may nearly double. This is completely different from the traditional semiconductor cycle. Normally, the longer a chip has been on the market, the lower the unit computing power price should be. Now, both old and new computing power are in short supply, and companies are not discussing GPU oversupply but how to get enough GPUs. 03｜Cloud providers may not be overprofiting but severely undervaluing their computing power Many cloud providers and Neo Cloud sign three- to five-year computing power contracts in advance to obtain financing. These contracts were signed when GPU rental prices were much lower than now. This creates a very critical price gap: Cloud providers currently recognize computing power revenue on their books according to past low-price contracts, but the same computing power is much more expensive on the spot market. Assuming an old contract price is $2 per GPU hour and the current spot price is $4, even if the spot price falls from $4 to $3.3 in the future, the new contract price is still 65% higher than the old contract. Therefore, when judging future cloud provider revenue, one should not only compare future spot prices with today's spot prices but also compare how much new contract prices have increased relative to soon-to-expire old contracts. As long as contract repricing continues, cloud providers' operating cash flow may keep improving, and even if GPU spot prices fall in the future, it does not mean cloud business revenue will decline. 04｜Open-source models impact model-layer profits, not computing power demand The market has another common misjudgment about open-source models: Open-source models are getting cheaper, so AI revenue declines, and eventually GPU demand will also decline. This confuses two completely different issues: Who earns the profit from a token and how much computing power is needed to generate that token are not the same. Open-source models may indeed compress the gross margins of leading model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, but generating tokens still requires GPUs, video memory, electricity, networks, and data centers. Leading closed-source models may have very high token gross margins, while open-source inference services have much lower profit margins. After enterprises use open-source models, the price they pay drops, mainly saving model-layer profits, not underlying computing costs. The likely result is: Single tokens become cheaper, enterprises start using more tokens; leading model companies earn less, but inference clouds, GPUs, HBM, and data centers see more demand. So the real impact of open-source models may be shifting profits from the model layer to the infrastructure layer, while further expanding the entire market through price reductions. This may not be good news for model companies but not necessarily bad news for AI hardware. 05｜The future is more likely a multi-model architecture Enterprises will not use only one strongest model to solve all tasks. A more realistic architecture is: Ordinary tasks are first handled by open-source models fine-tuned with enterprise data, complex tasks are then handled by Claude, Grok, or other leading models, and finally the strongest model is responsible for planning, auditing, and error correction. This approach can significantly reduce average usage costs while keeping result quality basically unchanged. But cost reduction does not equal reduced computing power usage. A company originally budgeted to generate 100 million expensive tokens may generate 300 million or even 500 million tokens with the same budget after switching to open-source models and model routing. The company's AI dollar spending may stabilize, but underlying GPU compute hours continue to grow. Therefore, judging AI demand cannot only look at how much companies spend but also at token quantity, GPU hours, call frequency, concurrent tasks, and agent numbers. $SNDK $SPCX $QQQ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Storage down 30%, optical modules down 60%, and orders sold through 2027 — who is really lying? Recently, the market has shown a very contradictory picture. On one side: Storage and optical module stock prices have sharply corrected. Micron has fallen more than 30% from its highs, and some optical module companies have even seen their stock prices halved. On the other side: The industry is frantically locking in production capacity. DRAM and HBM capacities from manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are continuously pre-booked, with some orders already scheduled through 2027. Although NAND is not as tight as HBM, the market also expects supply to tighten. This creates an apparently contradictory question: If future demand is really this strong, why are the stocks falling so much? If the industry has already peaked, why are downstream companies still spending large amounts of money to lock in inventory early? This actually reflects two different market logics. The industry side looks at: Future demand over the next few years; Supply capacity; Long-term orders; Capital investment. Whereas the secondary market trades on: Changes in expectations; Capital flows; Valuation pressure; Short-term sentiment. The two are not always synchronized. Many cyclical industries experience similar situations: When the industry is at its peak, stock prices may already reflect the future; But during short-term corrections, the market quickly sells off due to concerns about a peak or overvaluation. Take the AI industry chain as an example. Companies may still be increasing capital expenditures, and cloud providers still need more computing power, but investors start to ask: "Can future growth continue to exceed expectations?" This causes stock prices to fluctuate wildly. Optical modules are similar. If AI data center construction continues to advance, demand for high-speed optical communication still exists. At the same time, some policy changes and supply chain adjustments may bring new market opportunities. But investors also need to be aware: Strong long-term industry demand does not mean all companies will keep rising. The biggest risk for cyclical stocks is that the market trades the future prematurely. Even in a good industry, buying at the wrong price will still lose money. So what really needs to be judged is not just: "Is there demand?" But rather: "Has demand growth already been fully priced into the stock?" Returning to the initial question: Which is true — the sharply falling storage and optical modules, or the continuously growing industry orders? The answer may not be about who is lying. Rather: The industry sees the next few years; The market trades the next few months. When there is a huge divergence between the two, it is often when both opportunity and risk appear simultaneously. Ultimately, what decides the outcome is not whose voice is louder, but whose data is ultimately realized. #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $BICO Unitree Technology IPO: A-Share 40 Billion RMB Valuation vs. On-Chain $30 Billion "Pricing War" 1. Core Nodes of A-Share IPO Unitree Technology (688836.SH) officially entered the STAR Market IPO preliminary inquiry phase today (August 5): · Issuance scale: plans to publicly issue 40.4464 million shares, accounting for 10% of total shares after issuance, raising 4.202 billion RMB · Estimated issue price: about 104 RMB/share, corresponding to a market value exceeding 40 billion RMB; one subscription lot (500 shares) requires payment of about 52,000 RMB · Key timeline: August 5 preliminary inquiry → August 6 price determination → August 10 online and offline subscription → August 12 payment deadline · Equity structure: Founder Wang Xingxing controls 68.78% voting rights through special voting arrangements 2. On-Chain Derivatives Market: An Intense "Code Battle" Before the official pricing on A-shares, the on-chain derivatives market has already engaged in fierce competition around Unitree Technology: 🏆 HIP-3 Code Auction: Two Giants Compete HIP-3 is the architecture on Hyperliquid allowing external deployers to create their own perpetual contract markets. On August 3, decentralized exchange Paragon won the UNITREE code with a bid of 577.66 HYPE, launching the pre-IPO perpetual contract first. Subsequently, trade.xyz purchased the same code for 565.54 HYPE (about $31,000), becoming another popular pre-IPO target after Changxin Storage and SK Hynix. 📈 Nearly 5x Premium: The "Madness" of On-Chain Pricing Hyperliquid has launched Unitree Technology pre-IPO perpetual contracts, initially priced at $73.33, corresponding to a total share capital of about 404 million shares, implying a market value of approximately $29.7 billion (about 212.9 billion RMB). At the time of writing, the contract price is about $74-75, implying a market value of about $30 billion. Compared to the expected A-share issue price, the on-chain price is about 4.88 times higher — the market is betting real money on Unitree Technology's "robotic future." ⚠️ Risk Warning: Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are derivatives tracking specific asset prices and do not provide dividends or voting rights associated with actual stocks. Previously, the SK Hynix contract launched by trade.xyz suffered a 19% plunge due to pre-market volatility in Korea, triggering massive liquidations. 🏦 More Platforms Join Gate.io and Bybit have also launched UNITREEUSDT pre-IPO perpetual contracts, supporting up to 10x leverage. 3. FCC Ban: The "Gray Rhino" Before IPO On the eve of the IPO, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced new regulations on July 28, officially banning the import of new Chinese humanoid and quadruped robots. As a global leader in civilian robotics, Unitree Technology is one of the core targets affected by this ban. Impact on Unitree: · U.S. market revenue share has dropped from its peak to 13.30%, with domestic revenue now exceeding overseas · The company states the impact is limited; domestic scenarios are sufficient to support scaled deployment · Being specifically legislated against also, to some extent, confirms its industry status 4. Market Observation Unitree Technology is staging a dual pricing battle between A-shares and on-chain markets: · A-share market: 40 billion RMB valuation, 104 RMB/share, IPO subscription on August 10 · On-chain market: $30 billion implied market value (about 212.9 billion RMB), nearly 5x premium over A-shares As the A-share IPO pricing date approaches, the on-chain pricing battle for unlisted tech giants is heating up significantly. trade.xyz's follow-up involvement will provide deeper market-making liquidity for on-chain traders. The embodied intelligence concept is becoming a recent key capital-attracting target in the crypto derivatives market. $HYPE The whale chasing the SPCX eventually accepted a loss and left. Starting with 0xb37 yesterday, the address had cumulatively bought 229,600 shares of SPCX, with a turnover of about $27.064 million, and a weighted average price of $117.9. This morning, all positions were sold at an average price of $114.8—a loss of about $708,000, and the net asset value of the account has been reset to zero. This rally-chasing operation lasted only about 24 hours from entry to exit. SPCX is currently at $112.39, down 3.52% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $874 million and open interest of $174 million. Currently, addresses with millions of dollars have placed about $24.278 million in orders on both the upper and lower ends. Whale order structure: Below support: $100 to $106.1 range, largest short cover (about $5.136 million), not new long positions; $83.8 to $96.2 with clear long capital (about $4.39 million), planning to open 50,000 new long positions. Selling pressure above: Whale sell orders accumulated in the $133.5 to $153 range about $10.761 million, with long positions taking profit about $7.617 million, new short positions about $3.144 million, and about $2.732 million short positions between $155.4 and $180. The long-short battle in SPCX is far from over. After the bullish whales cleared positions, there is a clear support structure below, with whale take-profit and new short positions above. $BTC $ETH $SPCX #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #财 Temporary navigation agreement pending implementation, oil price risk has not yet reversed Trump and the Emir of Qatar had a phone call, and Qatar said a proposal focusing on the Strait of Hormuz has been drafted. Officials from both the US and Iran expressed optimism about the temporary agreement, and Iran even hinted at allowing European countries to enter for mine clearance. The market reaction was direct: Brent settled down over 5% the previous day, falling below $80 for the first time in three weeks, and continued to weaken today, with Brent at $78.44 and WTI at $74.63, marking three consecutive days of decline. But a decline does not mean risk reversal. The market is currently trading on the possibility of a "signing," not an "agreement reached." The temporary agreement at most solves the physical passage but cannot resolve the credit of the passage. Mines have not been cleared, war risk premiums remain high, and oil tankers entering the Persian Gulf empty to load are still at low levels. Global inventories remain thin. More troubling is that the agreement bypasses tough issues like Iran's nuclear program and regional proxies; during the window period, either side can still disrupt the deal. Oil prices have merely shifted from a surge mode back to wide-range oscillation, with support around $70, and any rebound is equally fragile. On the crypto side, $BTC is hovering around $64,000, approximately $64,100 today, with an intraday range of $63,580 to $64,494, still down about 27% year-to-date and far from the previous high of $126,000. The oil price pullback means some relief in inflation pressure, easing expectations for rate cuts and risk appetite, which is a tailwind for liquidity-consuming assets like BTC and the Nasdaq; however, if the agreement falls through, oil prices will rebound sharply in a V-shape, inflation expectations will return, and crypto will suffer alongside other risk assets. Don't mistake the oil price decline as a strengthening of crypto fundamentals; it's just a temporary easing of macro beta constraints. The core contradiction is simple: the market is eager to treat navigation expectations as navigation reality, and a temporary ceasefire as permanent peace. Going forward, watch three things: whether mine clearance and AIS signals return to normal, whether empty oil tankers dare to return, and whether the US formally confirms the agreement text. Until the shoe drops, oil prices cannot be said to have reversed, and Bitcoin only truly reflects a return of risk appetite if it holds above $64,000; falling below $62,000 indicates that capital is repricing geopolitical risk again. "Daily Market Watch | Asia Close and US Stock Preview" — US stocks hit new highs, can BTC continue to surge? Today's key points: Expectations of a US-Iran agreement ignite global risk assets, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hitting record highs, and Asian markets rallying broadly. However, BTC is repeatedly consolidating above 64,000, and AMD's sharp drop after earnings casts a shadow over tech stock sentiment. Asia Review: Tech Stocks Rally Collectively Asian markets surged broadly today, with the Nikkei 225 up 3.66% closing at 26,300 points, South Korea's KOSPI up 3.76% closing at 6,598 points, SK Hynix up 5.8%, and Samsung Electronics up 2.5%. China's A-shares saw the Shanghai Composite rise 1.47%, and the STAR Market 50 index up 4.78%. The core drivers come from two directions: first, expectations of a US-Iran agreement pushed oil prices sharply down; Asia, as a major energy importer, is particularly sensitive to oil price changes, and lower energy costs directly boost risk appetite; second, the strong overnight rally in US stocks spilled over into the Asia-Pacific market, with Palantir's 29% surge proving the AI commercialization inflection point is arriving. Hot Focus: Palantir Ignites AI Sentiment, AMD Throws Cold Water Palantir's earnings beat expectations across the board, with Q2 revenue at $1.94 billion and full-year revenue guidance sharply raised to $8.15-8.16 billion, surging 29% after hours—the largest single-day gain since February 2024. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped over 7%, with Coherent and Marvell Technology up over 12%, Intel and SanDisk up over 10%, and Micron Technology and AMD rising more than 7%. However, the pre-market story reversed today. AMD reported Q2 revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year, with data center revenue at $6.7 billion, up 107% YoY, but Q3 revenue guidance of about $13 billion (analyst expectation $12.52 billion), while beating expectations, failed to meet investors' more aggressive hopes, leading to a pre-market drop of over 8%. SpaceX's first earnings report showed revenue of $7.814 billion, with capital expenditures soaring to $18 billion, falling over 10% pre-market. The market's pricing logic for AI stocks has shifted from "can they make money" to "how much can they make." Palantir demonstrated AI commercialization's explosive potential, but AMD and SpaceX's high investments have raised concerns about the pace of investment returns. US Pre-Market: Futures Slightly Up, Semiconductors Under Pressure Futures for the three major indices are slightly up, with Dow futures up 0.29%, Nasdaq futures up 0.20%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.39%. The memory chip sector is mixed pre-market, with Micron down 1.71%, SK Hynix down 2.6%, SanDisk down 0.55%. Nvidia is up 2%, Apple and Google up 0.6%. Tonight's focus: ① 20:15 Beijing Time, US July ADP Employment Data (expected 68,000) ② 21:45 Beijing Time, US July Services PMI ③ 22:00 Beijing Time, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ④ SanDisk and Western Digital earnings tonight (barometers for memory chip sentiment) Tomorrow's watch points: 1. Whether AMD's post-earnings plunge drags down the semiconductor sector tonight, thereby affecting BTC risk appetite; 2. Whether ADP and Non-Manufacturing PMI data reinforce rate cut expectations; 3. Whether South Korea's KOSPI can continue its rebound after today's strong rally. "Which side do you choose today?" BTC is oscillating repeatedly above 64,000. What do you think: A: Riding on US stock gains + US-Iran agreement expectations, break through 65,000 this week B: Dragged down by AMD's plunge and tech stock sentiment, BTC retests 63,000 C: Continue oscillating between 63-64K, waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls I vote A first. Palantir and tech stock rallies provide indirect sentiment support for BTC, and if the US-Iran agreement materializes, it will directly improve inflation expectations. But AMD's earnings remind us that the "beat expectations" bar for the AI sector is continuously rising. BTC's rebound space is limited; don't blindly chase highs. Which one will you choose? See you in the comments.MARA transfers 6,000 BTC, mining company asset management is becoming a new market focus On August 5, according to on-chain monitoring data, Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings transferred 6,000 BTC to the Two Prime address within the past 5 hours. Based on the current price, the value is approximately $384.6 million. Data shows MARA previously held about 36,300 BTC, with a total value of around $2.34 billion. This transfer accounts for about 16.5% of its Bitcoin reserves. However, it should be noted that on-chain transfers do not necessarily represent sales. The BTC flow to Two Prime is more likely related to asset management, institutional custody, or capital strategy adjustments. The real market focus is on how large mining companies are managing their Bitcoin assets. From the BTC/USDT perpetual hourly chart, the market has not shown obvious panic due to this large transfer. Currently, BTC is priced around $64,070, with a 24-hour high of $64,534 and a low of $63,581, a daily fluctuation of about $950, and an overall amplitude of approximately 1.5%. Previously, BTC fell from around $65,390 to a low near $62,227, then quickly rebounded and is now consolidating near $64,000. Technically, BTC is in a short-term consolidation and recovery phase. Hourly moving averages show: MA5 around $64,078, MA10 around $64,137, MA20 around $64,160. The three moving averages are currently close together, indicating the market is waiting for a new directional choice. The price is currently hovering around the $64,000 area. A breakthrough above the $64,500-$65,000 range is needed to open further space; if repeatedly pressured, attention should be paid to support near $63,500, with the next lower support around the previous low near $62,200. Regarding volume, the current hourly volume is about $7.19 million, significantly lower compared to previous rapid fluctuation phases, indicating the market has not experienced concentrated selling pressure due to the MARA transfer news. Large on-chain transfers are more like institutional fund reallocations rather than simple market sell signals. In fact, from recent years' trends, the way mining companies and institutions hold BTC is changing. In the past, mining companies mainly relied on selling mined BTC to maintain operations. As Bitcoin asset value increases, more mining companies are starting to treat BTC as part of their corporate balance sheets. MARA holding over 36,000 BTC essentially approaches the status of a large Bitcoin reserve institution. But holding large amounts of BTC also brings new challenges. When a company holds tens of thousands of BTC, improving capital efficiency, reducing risk, and managing assets become new issues. Transfers to institutional service providers like Two Prime may represent mining companies exploring more financialization methods for BTC rather than simply long-term storage. For the crypto market, this also reflects the maturation of the Bitcoin ecosystem. The market focus is no longer just "who is buying BTC" but also "how BTC holders manage their BTC." From ETF inflows to corporate reserves to mining company asset strategies, Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a trading asset to an institutional-grade asset. In the short term, BTC remains in consolidation near $64,000, with the market awaiting more macro and capital signals to confirm direction. MARA's transfer is more of an asset management move but also reminds the market that the actions of large BTC holders are becoming an important variable influencing market sentiment. This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. $BTC Terra peaked at 43% LUNA stake at something like 15% APR & 10,000 airdrop and liquidity mining schemes layered on top of staking while being the hottest ponzu in crypto...also having in-protocol delegation and in-protocol LST so less risk...also being in a low-interest-rate QE/covid subsidy macro environment that we'll probably never get again in our lifetimes... there is basically no reason to think ETH staking will ever get to 50% no less 100%, just a bunch of hysterical bullshit....$ETH #EarningsRealityCheck 🔥 WHEN MONEY IS ON THE TABLE, DECENTRALIZATION BECOMES A FAIRY TALE. Ethereum's latest proposal (EIP-8363) proves one thing: Everyone supports "what's good for Ethereum"... until it hurts their own yield. The proposal aims to gradually reduce validator issuance, pushing ETH toward net-zero issuance as staking reaches 50% of supply. Sounds bullish. Less inflation. More scarcity. Better tokenomics. Then why did the community explode? Because someone has to pay the bill. Validators would see annual rewards fall from 2.86% to 1.48%. Liquid staking protocols. Institutional staking products. DeFi lending strategies built on staking yield. All suddenly become less attractive. This is where crypto stops being ideology and starts becoming economics. People don't fight because they hate Ethereum. People fight because their cash flow is under attack. Every tokenomics change creates winners... ...and losers. The moment incentives shift, decentralization instantly splits into factions. In crypto, governance isn't about consensus. It's about discovering who loses money. 💬 If EIP-8363 really makes ETH scarcer but cuts validator income in half... would you still vote YES?🤗 Breaking news: Circle announces the list of founding validators for the Arc blockchain — including 11 financial giants like BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC (also Galaxy, Standard Chartered, SBI, ICE, Western Union, Sumitomo, Global Payments). Arc is Circle's L1 built for institutions, launching its public mainnet on September 16, natively embedding USDC, running stablecoin + tokenized asset settlements. Is this good news for crypto? In the long run, yes. Previously, institutions talked about on-chain adoption but stayed on the sidelines — fearing SEC securities enforcement and unclear node operations. Now we just wait for the CLARITY Act to pass. Once it does, scenes like BlackRock running nodes and Visa handling settlements will shift from news to routine. But don’t get ahead of yourself: Arc isn’t for retail users; it’s for BUIDL funds and DTCC asset tokenization custody. The benefit is crypto integrating into Wall Street’s foundation, not that $BTC $ETH $SOL will skyrocket tomorrow. BlackRock is playing both roles 😂. Do you see this as a victory for crypto, or Wall Street assimilating the crypto space?SanDisk surged 10.84% to a new phase high, while Bitcoin remains stuck in a narrow range around 63800 On the evening of August 4, the storage sector experienced an epic rally. SanDisk closed at $1427.62, up 10.84% for the day, with a total turnover of $9.68 billion. SK Hynix rose 8.17%, Micron Technology increased 7.62%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.5%, marking four consecutive trading days of gains and strength. In contrast, Bitcoin's price range for the day was locked between $63350 and $63817, with an overall 24-hour volatility of only 0.76%, showing almost no fluctuation. In July, spot prices for single-layer NAND flash memory soared 35% month-on-month. Storage manufacturers' 2027 production capacity has already been fully booked by AI server customers, providing hardware stocks with solid supply and demand dividends. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $187 million in outflows in a single day, as institutional funds flock to the storage sector, which is experiencing a cyclical recovery, and avoid the higher regulatory risks associated with crypto assets. After this round of flash memory spot price surge cools down, will the institutional funds that exited have a chance to flow into the crypto space? #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Today's Earnings Outside the Norm Today is August 5th, and like yesterday, it's one of the busiest days for US stock earnings reports. Before the market opens, focus is on consumer, pharmaceutical, and platform economy sectors; after the market closes, it's storage, AI applications, and high-valuation growth stocks delivering results. According to Beijing time, US pre-market earnings reports mainly release tonight between 18:00–21:00; after-market earnings concentrate tomorrow early morning from 4:00–4:30. Tonight pre-market: SHOP, UBER, DIS, CRCL $SHOP Shopify Market expectations are revenue around $3.43 billion, up about 28% year-over-year, adjusted EPS about $0.40. Key points to watch: GMV growth rate, payment business penetration, and next quarter revenue growth guidance. SHOP is an e-commerce payment, advertising, and merchant infrastructure platform, so growth matters more than just EPS. $UBER Uber Market expects revenue around $14.21 billion, adjusted EPS about $0.83. The company previously guided Q2 gross bookings between $56.25 billion and $57.75 billion. Focus on ride order growth, delivery profit margins, free cash flow, and autonomous driving partnerships. Uber's biggest valuation logic now is how much profit margin can still improve. $DIS Disney I personally visited twice last year, once the day before 10/11, and once at Christmas. Christmas was really crowded. Market expects revenue about $25.41 billion, adjusted EPS about $1.88. Market will focus on park operations, Disney+ profitability, and the new management's long-term strategy. Analysts expect parks and experiences to remain the profit core, but oil prices, inflation, and travel demand changes may affect attendance. $CRCL Circle My view: buy if it opens with a 5, increase buying if it opens with a 4. Market expects revenue roughly $710 million to $745 million, EPS about $0.16–$0.18. CRCL's key metrics are not traditional EPS but USDC circulation scale, reserve interest income, distribution costs, and how management responds to payment giants like Visa, Mastercard, Stripe entering the stablecoin market. This will directly impact the entire stablecoin concept and some crypto stocks' sentiment. Other pre-market names to watch: $CVS, $KHC, $GFS, $GLXY, $RIOT, $WULF, $SEDG. Tomorrow early morning after-market: the main battlefield is $SNDK $SNDK SanDisk This is the most important earnings report today. Market expectations vary among institutions, revenue about $8.3 billion to $8.7 billion, adjusted EPS about $33–$35.5. The company's official guidance last quarter was revenue $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, EPS $30–$33. In other words, the market has already priced in "beating guidance." Besides revenue and EPS, watch: Whether NAND and enterprise SSD prices can continue rising Data center revenue and shipments Whether long-term supply contracts can truly reduce storage cycle volatility Next quarter gross margin and revenue guidance Management's optimism on AI storage demand SanDisk signed multiple long-term supply contracts last quarter, three totaling about $42 billion. This shows the company is trying to turn the traditional "boom and bust cycle" of storage into more stable contract revenue. But the risk is, SNDK has already surged this year; although it has pulled back significantly from highs recently, market expectations for profit growth remain very high. Even if earnings beat expectations, if next quarter guidance isn't explosive, it could repeat the AMD and SPCX scenario. Also tonight $WDC Western Digital will report earnings simultaneously, with market expectations of revenue about $3.7 billion, EPS about $3.32–$3.35. Both reporting together is like a cross-check on AI storage demand, enterprise SSDs, and the entire data storage cycle. $APP AppLovin Market expects revenue about $1.94 billion, EPS about $3.72. Focus on AI ad engine AXON, advertiser growth, and e-commerce ad business. APP's profit margin is already very high, so the market cares more about whether new businesses can continue expanding rather than just cost control. $DASH DoorDash Market expects revenue about $4.32 billion, EPS about $0.50, with expected year-over-year growth over 30%. Main points: order growth, international markets, grocery delivery, and profit margins. Viewed alongside Uber, it helps gauge the strength of US local consumption and instant delivery demand. AI and High-Valuation Growth Stocks Tonight after-market there are many high-volatility names: $IONQ: expected revenue about $66.36 million, EPS loss $0.29 $SOUN: expected revenue about $52.49 million, EPS loss $0.05 $DUOL: expected revenue about $297 million, EPS $0.61 $FIG: important post-IPO earnings, expected revenue about $351 million $HUBS, $AXON, $SMR, $JOBY will also report Also $MELI, $XYZ, $OXY, $EBAY, $EXPE, $ELF, $MCK. In summary Tonight pre-market validates US consumer and platform economy: LLY for pharma competition, UBER and DASH for local consumption, SHOP and CRCL for platform growth. But the real tech stock sentiment drivers are SNDK + WDC + APP. Especially SNDK. Yesterday AMD and SPCX showed us the market isn't short on good numbers but on a future that can keep being revised upward. If SNDK's earnings are good but guidance only meets expectations, the storage sector likely won't rally. Only if price, gross margin, data center demand, and next quarter guidance all beat expectations can it possibly lift the entire storage sector sentiment #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $ETH $BTC $BICO BEAT Market Analysis Current Price: 2.4226 Overall Pattern: After an initial surge to 11.6576 followed by a long-term continuous decline, there was a recent rebound near 4 which faced resistance again, initiating a new round of decline. The long-term cycle is clearly within a downward channel, dominated by a bearish trend, with short-term slight low-level oscillations and weak rebound strength. Structure Across Timeframes 1. Daily Level Price continues to move along the downtrend, with resistance at 7.6509 above, difficult to reach in the short term; key support at 2.2109 below, which is also the recent low defense line. Daily indicators remain bearish; if support breaks, the downside space will further open. 2. 4-Hour Level All moving averages diverge downward, clearly showing a bearish alignment. The first resistance above is in the 2.68~2.70 range, with support near 2.20 below. Price is under continuous downward pressure; rebounds are considered mere corrections during the decline and should not be viewed as bullish unless resistance is broken. Trading Ideas Reference ✅ Bullish Idea Only consider light position trades if price stops falling and stabilizes at the 2.20~2.21 support zone, aiming to capitalize on oversold rebounds. Stop loss should be set below 2.18, with a short-term target near 2.65. ❌ Bearish Idea If rebound faces resistance and fails to break through the 2.65~2.69 range, consider shorting with the first target at 2.21; If the 2.20 support is effectively broken, a new round of decline will begin, expanding the downside space further. Content is for technical communication only and does not constitute investment advice$BEAT I am Cige. AMD's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock fell 8% after hours. An old script is playing out again: good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. AMD's earnings figures Revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $1.66, both higher than market expectations. Data center business revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of the company's total revenue, with a gross margin maintained at 56%. The Q3 revenue guidance is about $13 billion, higher than the market average expectation but below some institutions' higher forecasts. After the earnings release, the stock fell more than 8% after hours. Why did it fall despite exceeding expectations? Market expectations had been pulled up too high in advance, and the guidance did not further surpass them, so the market was already pricing in higher expectations. When the "exceeding expectations" margin is not large enough, it is interpreted as "not good enough." AMD's problem is that high growth has already been priced in. Impact on SanDisk AMD's 8% drop after hours directly pressures SanDisk's earnings tonight. The storage sector has seen huge recent gains; SanDisk rose from 998 to 1468, with expectations fully priced in. AMD's movement is a signal: if the earnings just meet expectations rather than greatly exceed them, profit-taking will be very intense. How to handle the 1331.77 short position Set the stop loss above ？ #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 Last night, the S&P 500 officially surpassed 7700 points, closing at 7736.52, up 1.79%. The Dow also broke 54,000, rising over 900 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was even more impressive, surging 6.55% in a single day. The total market capitalization of the S&P 500 also exceeded $70 trillion for the first time. On the surface, it looks like a broad rally, but the real driver behind this big bullish candle is three things happening simultaneously. First, the earnings season ended on a strong note. Palantir’s earnings beat expectations, rising 13% after hours. Caterpillar also exceeded expectations. Microsoft and Amazon had already demonstrated last week that AI investments can generate returns. The overall narrative of this earnings season shifted from "AI bubble" to "AI is delivering revenue." Second, oil prices collapsed. Bespoke said the US and Iran might reach an agreement on Tuesday or Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plummet in a single day. With oil prices falling, inflation expectations cooled, and long-term bond yields followed down. The simultaneous easing of inflation and interest rates is a double positive for risk assets. Third, semiconductors and storage stocks exploded across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.55%, Micron gained 7.6%. Intel and SanDisk surged over 10%. Storage stocks fell 40% in July, so this rebound is a combination of oversold recovery and sentiment reversal. However, the downside is that while the S&P hit new highs, AMD and SpaceX both plunged after hours. AMD dropped nearly 9% after hours; despite beating earnings expectations, its guidance was unimpressive. SpaceX’s first earnings report beat revenue expectations, but AI spending surged, causing a post-market drop of over 7%. The market is rising, but individual stocks are diverging. Capital is flowing toward proven giants while abandoning any "not good enough" names. Bespoke’s Hickey said the Nasdaq has risen more than 1% for four consecutive days, and such continuous buying usually indicates real capital inflow rather than a short-term rebound. But the question is how long this inflow can last, depending on whether the US-Iran deal really materializes, whether oil prices stabilize, and whether next week’s CPI data cooperates. The market is indeed hitting new highs, but I don’t think this is a signal to blindly go all in. The S&P has rebounded significantly from its June lows, valuations are high, and any slight disturbance could trigger profit-taking. At this point, I prefer to keep positions flexible, not chase the highs, and add on pullbacks. The significance of new highs is not to chase but to confirm the trend. Once the trend is confirmed, there will be plenty of opportunities to get in.📢 Market News | After SPCX released its latest earnings report, its stock price saw a noticeable pullback, and market attention quickly shifted to the upcoming large-scale lock-up. Many people are asking: With record-breaking performance, why has the stock price fallen? 🤔 The answer is actually quite simple—the market trades the future, not the past. 📊 The latest data shows that the company's revenue continues to grow rapidly, with AI-related businesses remaining the biggest highlight. Core business revenue keeps rising, with multiple indicators exceeding market expectations. However, what truly worries investors is that high-intensity AI capital investment will continue in the coming quarters, meaning short-term profit margins will remain under pressure. 💰⚠️ 🔥 The bigger highlight is not the financial report, but the upcoming unlocking event. A large number of restricted shares entered the circulating market, raising concerns among investors about increased selling pressure, which significantly cooled market sentiment. Many short-term funds chose to exit early, putting pressure on the stock price. 📉 On the other hand, short positions in the market remain at a high level. When the market is almost unanimously bearish, the real situation to be wary of is another scenario—if there is no panic selling on the day of the lock-up, short covering could quickly push the stock price higher, forming a short squeeze. 🚀 🎯 Current market focus: ✅ Future profitability of AI business ✅, whether actual selling pressure after unlocking is lower than expected ✅, whether institutional funds continue to increase holdings ✅, and whether bears are starting to concentrate their holdings ⚡. The news has been released, but what truly determines the trend will be the choice of funds. The market is always like this: 📉 negative news is unevenly realized The "Hype" Economics of $BEAT Coin When "hype" is written into the token economic model, the line between story and bubble is just a thin sheet of liquidity. BEAT coin, a crypto project that surged over 1400% in a single month in the summer of 2026, is exactly such a case study. Three Storylines Supporting a "Bull" BEAT's narrative logic is a textbook example of hype in crypto projects: first, it ties to the IP story of the classic music game "Audition" with 600 million registered users; second, it packages the AI narrative of "AI agents having independent wallets and participating equally with humans in on-chain economics"; third, it plays the deflation card of "nearly 100% weekly revenue used to buy back and burn tokens." These three lines interweave, inflating the coin price from under $1 all the way to a historical high of $11. The Triple Undercurrents Behind the Glamorous Narrative However, on-chain data reveals another side: first, most of the supply is concentrated in a few wallets, showing extreme chip concentration, making the surge look more like precise manipulation than market behavior; second, when the price hit its all-time high, the number of active on-chain addresses actually declined, indicating no real user growth, with this rally mainly driven by leveraged derivatives; third, the script of "roadmap release → pump to attract FOMO → whales sell → retail holders stuck" repeats itself, with price crashing immediately after positive news, dropping 60% in three days. Who Pays for the Story? For the project team and early participants, "hype" is a guaranteed profit business—distributing chips at high prices to retail chasing the rally. For retail investors, it’s an asymmetric information gamble: they hear "600 million users," "AI equality," "millions burned weekly," but overlook the more critical facts—fully diluted valuation once reached $9 billion, while circulating supply is only one-third of total, with hundreds of millions of tokens still locked waiting to be unlocked and dumped into the market. A community commenter put it bluntly: "BEAT is no longer about fundamentals; it’s testing the market’s greed level." When narrative becomes the asset, truth no longer matters. What matters is, before the music stops, who holds the initiative in the "hype" game, and who ends up paying for the story $BTC #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量

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