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Talking about the accuracy of technical indicators: A fan just asked me on WeChat whether the MACD death cross has a high accuracy for shorting. I answered him like this: The accuracy of a single indicator probably can't even reach 60% (even 60% is considered high). #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Actually, in trading, there is no absolute high accuracy; it’s all about managing capital combined with directional probabilities.
Here’s a simple example: A frog at the bottom of a well climbs up three meters every day but slips down one meter at night when resting. Can you say the frog isn’t making progress? As long as the frog steadily maintains this pace and efficiency, one day it will see the daylight again.
Trading follows the same principle: lose one, gain two, steadily advancing day by day with compound interest, and eventually, there will be a day it crosses the finish line~🔥 $SOL TRADING STRATEGY
Current price: Fluctuating around the 74 USD mark.
Trend: $SOL (Solana) is under correction pressure and trading sideways around the 74 USD area. Bulls are striving to establish and defend a strong technical support zone at 70 USD to maintain the market structure. Short-term selling pressure is increasing mainly due to distribution and profit-taking actions from large whale wallets, despite the network being actively supported by capital inflows into the dApps ecosystem and the boom in real-world asset tokenization (RWA).
Highlight: Institutional capital continues to pour into Spot Solana ETF funds, creating a solid liquidity foundation for the long term. Additionally, the network technology upgrade (Alpenglow upgrade) is being steadily implemented, optimizing transaction processing speed and maintaining the core competitive advantage for the $SOL ecosystem #OKXOrbitTopics SanDisk's earnings beat expectations on both fronts, with a $14 billion buyback, yet SNDK fell to $1,232. What exactly is the market dissatisfied with?
Just checked the trading page, $SNDK is around $1,232.09, showing a decline of 15.45%.
This is interesting.
The company did not deliver a bad earnings report: revenue was about $8.97 billion, adjusted EPS $39.25, both exceeding expectations; the board also added a $14 billion buyback authorization.
But the price did not reward these positives; instead, it was discounted directly.
The reason is not complicated:
The market is not selling last quarter's results, but whether next quarter can continue to exceed already very high expectations.
SNDK rose from about $1,016 at the end of July to above $1,440 at one point. A rebound of over 40% in a short time has already priced in some of the "storage price increases, AI data center demand, and continued explosive performance."
So now at the $1,232 level, the focus is not on the earnings headline but on two questions:
Can next quarter's guidance continue to deliver high growth?
When will the $14 billion authorization turn into actual buybacks, rather than just a number in the announcement?
In terms of the market, I’m watching three areas:
Around $1,200: the most immediate support level now. Holding this means the selling pressure after earnings is being absorbed;
$1,120–$1,125: if it breaks below this, the short-term trend will weaken further;
$1,288 and $1,350: the rebound needs to first reclaim $1,288, then retake $1,350 for the market to start believing this is not just a simple sell-off.
Therefore, the buyback authorization is positive but not an automatic price floor.
The real divergence now is:
Is the area around $1,200 a post-earnings overreaction, or is the high expectation starting to be discounted by the market?
Do you think SanDisk this time is "performance is fine, valuation is digesting," or is the storage market outlook already peaking? $SNDK #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle betting on Arc after earnings report, can USDC achieve new growth?
$CRCL Circle's Q2 earnings are out, with revenue of 701 million, up 7% year-over-year, but slightly below market expectations. USDC circulation is 73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, and on-chain transaction volume is 14.8 trillion, a staggering 151% year-over-year increase.
Honestly, $USDC circulation is still growing, but it has actually declined quarter-over-quarter — nearly 5% less than the end of Q1, and still some distance from the 80 billion peak. Circle’s model of earning from reserve interest is indeed becoming more challenging in a declining interest rate cycle.
The real highlight is not the earnings numbers, but Arc.
The mainnet launched on September 16 and has already entered the private mainnet phase. The founding validator list is very strong — BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, Galaxy, Standard Chartered, and 11 other institutions. BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund on Arc, and DTCC is also collaborating. More than 100 ecosystem and institutional builders have already joined.
If the earnings report answers "How much money is USDC making now," Arc answers "How much bigger can USDC grow in the future." Circle’s market cap is about $19 billion; the earnings report is just a passing grade, while Arc is the real expectation. Whether it can truly connect stablecoin settlement, tokenized assets, and institutional financial infrastructure will determine if USDC can unlock new growth potential. The semiconductor pressure from AI has already spread to consumer electronics, and even Apple, with the world's strongest supply chain management capabilities, cannot remain unaffected. Written by: Mike, Frank, MSX Maton A nearly flawless financial report led to a stock price plunge of about 10%. On July 30, Apple achieved revenue of $109.42 billion in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, a year-on-year increase of 16%, setting a record for the strongest June quarter in history; Diluted earnings per share reached $2.02, up 29% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $1.89, with an overall gross margin reaching 50.1%, at an absolute historical high. From revenue and profit to core product sales, almost every key metric exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Considering this was Tim Cook's last earnings call before stepping down as CEO, it should have been a respectable farewell report. But the capital market's response was completely the opposite. After the earnings release, Apple's stock price first fell about 5.5% in after-hours trading, then dropped nearly 10% in the next day's trading, wiping out nearly $500 billion in market value. The problem was not in the recently concluded quarter, but in Apple's outlook for the future—management expects September revenue to grow 9% to 11% year-over-year, below Wall Street's consensus of about 12%; Gross margin guidance also fell back to 47% to 48%. Cook made it even clearer that the company is facing very significant supply constraints and supply chains$BTC #Bitcoin has officially entered the late stage of the #bear market! The failure to pass the clarity bill will accelerate Bitcoin's shakeout again, but personally, I don't think it will drop to the 30,000s or 40,000s, at most it will shake down to around 50,000. Everyone is fixated on the last drop of the bear market cycle, with the FTX crash becoming the main event for Bitcoin's final shakeout.
So who will be the main force driving Bitcoin's last drop in this bear market?
I believe it will be the US stock market's capital drain and the clarity bill.
This final push causing Bitcoin's last drop will be jointly driven by the US stock market's capital drain and the failure of the clarity bill.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
This altcoin cycle hasn't seen much growth, and Bitcoin's gains compared to the last cycle are also small.
Coincidentally, the US stock market has been draining Bitcoin for a year, so don't underestimate the intensity of this shakeout.
Many #crypto people have moved to the #US stock market, and there are plenty who have lost money or are stuck.
Retail investors hardly hold altcoins, and very few own Bitcoin.
Now, most Bitcoin holders are institutions focused on long-term investment.
So how much further can it fall? Unless there's another 3/12 event, it won't drop to 30,000 or 40,000.
The market is running out of time for the bears; will there be a major black swan in September or October? The probability is very low.
Finally, everyone knows that the market consensus is for Bitcoin to reach 48,000 by year-end, so the actual price will definitely be higher than this consensus.
Currently, the failure of the clarity bill, in my view, is a good thing. #BTC #cryptocurrency #trader #blockchain #marketToday's ETF inflow chart is pretty straightforward: money is still coming in, but it's still heading to $BTC first.
On August 5th, the total market cryptocurrency ETF net inflow was $296.2 million, with $BTC ETF inflow at $241.6 million and $ETH ETF inflow at $54.6 million.
What does this indicate? It shows that the market isn't lacking funds, but capital still prefers to buy BTC as the anchor first, with ETH just taking a portion of the incremental inflow.
When I look at this kind of data now, the focus isn't on "how much flowed in today," but whether funds have started to spread into broader risk assets.
If BTC continues to take the lion's share, it means the market is still in the "survival first" phase and hasn't reached the stage for a full-scale offensive.
Money is coming in, but the pace is still very cautious.
This is better than having no inflow at all, but it's far from the time to openly discuss altcoin season. $BEAT 今天盘面大跌12%，现在多进去来得及吗 从一小时多空账户比例能看到，下跌初期散户大多开空； 行情反弹后，大量散户平空抄底，多头账户数量快速走高。 但这个统计的是账户数量，并非资金规模。 散户集体看多，有被行情扫损的风险，仅能当作情绪参考，不能直接作为开单依据。 再看5分钟持仓数据，12:45持仓断崖跳水，大量仓位爆仓清算，完成一轮暴力洗盘。 随后持仓重新抬升，新资金持续涌入，多空分歧拉满，后续来回插针扫止损的概率很大。 短期大跌属于超跌，存在反弹机会，但大跌不等于见底，依旧有继续下探的可能。 说实话这种情况下不重仓，高杠杆直接进场。 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Today on Hyperliquid, there was a ruthless player with an address starting 0xd9a5 who suddenly placed a $100 million $ETH short order in the morning, 52,956 tokens, with a 30-minute TWAP. The account only had $335,000, leveraging nearly 300x, clearly aiming to be the platform's largest short seller.
What happened? The order was canceled after 45 seconds, only 1,779 tokens were filled, a completion rate of 3.36%.
Even more absurd, yesterday this address placed 39 TWAP orders in total, 31 shorts, all terminated early, running on average 16.5 seconds, with about 3.4% completion. Over two days, the actual filled ETH was about 1,779 tokens—just enough to test the order book depth twice.
You say it was a slip? 39 "slips" yesterday is too consistent. It looks more like using a huge parent order to quickly slice out two market orders to test how much active sell volume ETH can absorb and how large the slippage really is. Yesterday, he shorted 58,200 tokens and bought them all back, with a total two-way transaction volume of $218 million, gross profit of $398,000, and net profit of $336,000 after fees.
Now there are still 1,779 short tokens left, 10x leverage, entry price 1895, floating loss of over a thousand dollars. Whether the $100 million short was a misclick or a fixed strategy is hard to say, but 39 repeated operations definitely weren't accidental.$BTC #Bitcoin has officially entered the late stage of the #bear market! The failure to pass the clarity bill will accelerate Bitcoin's shakeout again, but personally, I don't think it will drop to the 30,000s or 40,000s, at most it will shake out near 50,000. Everyone is focusing on the last drop of this bear market, with the FTX crash becoming the main event for Bitcoin's final shakeout.
So who will be the main force driving Bitcoin's last drop in this bear market?
I believe it is the US stock market's bloodsucking and the clarity bill.
This final drop in Bitcoin will be jointly driven by the US stock market's bloodsucking and the failure to pass the clarity bill.
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
This round, altcoins haven't risen much, and Bitcoin's gains compared to the last round are also small.
Coincidentally, the US stock market has been continuously draining Bitcoin for a year, so don't underestimate the intensity of this shakeout.
Many #crypto people have moved to the #US stock market, and there are many who have lost money or are stuck.
Retail investors hardly hold altcoins, and very few own Bitcoin.
Now, most Bitcoin holders are institutions focused on long-term investment.
So how much more can it fall? Unless there is another 3/12 event, it won't drop to 30,000 or 40,000.
The market is running out of time for the bears; will there be a big black swan in September or October? The probability is very low.
Finally, everyone knows that the market consensus is for Bitcoin to reach 48,000 by the end of the year, so the actual price will definitely be higher than this consensus.
Currently, the failure to pass the clarity bill, in my view, is a good thing. The fan is spinning a bit slowly, so I turned it up one notch. My hair is half dry, a few drops of water slide down my collarbone into my neckline. August 6, 2026, a little past 9 PM, the heatwave outside hasn't fully dissipated yet. The phone flipped over in my palm and back again; I refreshed the data three times today—once in the afternoon, once before dinner, and just now. Quiet changes often deserve more attention than drastic fluctuations.
Today, the total market cap barely changed, but internal funds are reshuffling positions.
$BTC's high-low difference is less than $900, closing near the opening price. Binance and OKX perpetual funding rates hovered around 0.01% all day; both longs and shorts are reluctant to leverage. But on Bitfinex, $BTC long positions increased by about 1,200 coins in the past 24 hours—that's not retail-level volume. $ETH was weaker than $BTC today, with downward pressure on the exchange rate, but Arbitrum's daily active addresses quietly climbed to a near one-week high of 870,000; OP network is similar—people are active on-chain, but the price hasn't caught up yet.
$SOL surged then dropped, hitting 148 before falling back to 141. FTX liquidation addresses transferred about 180,000 $SOL to market makers today; selling pressure was absorbed but with difficulty. $XRP followed $BTC's movement, but Ripple deployed a new liquidity pool on XRPL, with nodes selected after the SEC hearing. $ADA hovered around 0.32, with the third-lowest trading volume this month; Github had 17 commits today, but the market isn't buying it. $DOGE's volatility was minimal; one on-chain address withdrew about 230 million coins from Robinhood, splitting them into a dozen addresses for storage.
$AVAX has fallen for five consecutive days, hitting a three-week low, but two new game deployments appeared on its subnet. $TRX dropped less than 0.5%; Tron’s USDT daily transfer volume reached $24 billion, making this chain hard to replace for stablecoin settlements. $LINK’s oracle call volume remains above 950,000 daily; a new staking pool deposit of about 500,000 coins came from an address that had been selling before—behavior patterns have changed. $DOT dropped 2%; with Polkadot 2.0 launch three weeks away, the market is not pricing in a premium. $MATIC’s volume shrank along with L2s, but zkEVM’s daily transaction volume is 22% higher than last week’s average, showing a divergence between technology and price.
$LTC is consolidating with shrinking volume; the number of holding addresses surpassed 9.2 million, and new address growth is accelerating. $NEAR dropped 3.5%, nearing a monthly low, but an AI incubator announced two new projects joining. $ATOM continues to test lows; Cosmos cross-chain activity dropped to a nearly two-month low, with IBC transfer volume down 35% month-over-month. $ETC unexpectedly rose 1.7%, briefly boosted by network upgrade sentiment—an hourly event. $STX rose 3%, one of today’s few bright spots; positive news on the Nakamoto upgrade revived Bitcoin L2 narratives. $FET and $AGIX rose just over 2%, with the AI sector outperforming the market. $FIL dropped 4%, $AR dropped 3%, with the storage sector broadly weakening.
$APT dropped 5%, $SUI dropped 4.5%, $SEI dropped 3.8%, all showing the same pattern—new lows every day, with no buyers.
On the DeFi side, $AAVE only dropped 0.6%; about $15 million worth of WETH collateralized loans appeared on-chain, indicating institutional revolving loans. $MKR’s burn volume increased 17% month-over-month; $UNI’s front-end trading volume rose 12%, maintaining a 62% market share. $LDO closed almost flat; stETH net staking increased by about 24,000 coins. $PENDLE dropped 3%, but PT/YT trading volume unexpectedly surged. $FXS dropped 4%, with Frax supply continuing to shrink. $CVX closed flat; vlCVX locked volume has been slowly declining for three consecutive weeks. $ONDO continues to be bought via dollar-cost averaging, sweeping about 12,000 more today; the same address has been buying for 12 consecutive days.
Regarding stablecoins, USDT saw a net inflow of about $420 million on exchanges, USDC net inflow about $180 million; buying power is accumulating but not yet deployed.
In the Meme sector, $PEPE dropped 1.5%, Binance volume remains in the top 20. $WIF dropped 5%, $BONK dropped 6%, $FLOKI dropped 4%, $MEW dropped 5.5%, $MYRO dropped 7%, with no bottoming out at the tail end. But $NEIRO rose 9%, purely a community game. $BRETT dropped 2%, $NOT dropped 4.5%. Among new coins, $STRK continues to test new lows; $ZRO dropped 3%, $W dropped 4%, $ZK dropped 3.5%, all under collective pressure. $ENA rose 2% against the trend, with USDe supply increasing by about $80 million.
Today’s clear net inflow directions: $BTC, $LINK, $AAVE, $MKR, $ONDO, $LDO, $ENA, $STX, $NEIRO, $PEPE. Net outflow pressure is obvious for: $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $FIL, $ATOM.
Finally, a candid word. After spending a long time in this market, you realize—anyone can learn to judge direction, but learning to hold back from trading, learning to stay out of the market, is the most valuable skill. I've been in this industry for almost six years; my biggest lesson wasn’t losing money by being wrong on direction, but by being right and pushing my position too hard—one pinprick pushed me out, and the market went one-way, never returning. Stop-loss itself isn’t wrong; what’s wrong is not reviewing your entry logic after stopping out.
I’ll shut down my computer after organizing the data tonight. The market won’t change just because I sit in front of the screen longer, but my sleep and tomorrow’s judgment will. Some days are for digestion, not decision-making.
The fan is still spinning, the phone lies face down on the desk. The lights in the building opposite have gone out in a row again; the night is deepening.Breaking news! SNDK (SanDisk) disclosed a "double beat expectations earnings report" combined with a massive $14 billion buyback authorization. From a deep perspective, this is not just good performance but a "liquidity squeeze" targeting short sellers.
1. Why is the $14 billion buyback a "nuclear-level" signal?
1. Establishing a stock price defense "iron bottom":
For whales managing assets (AUM) over billions of dollars, the $14 billion buyback authorization means the company management provides very strong buying support in the $1,100 - $1,200 range. This eliminates the "tail risk" of large institutional holdings, transforming SNDK from a high-risk growth stock into an AI core asset with "bond-like defensive properties."
2. Creating an "EPS illusion" to seize pricing power:
Buybacks retire shares, forcibly boosting EPS (earnings per share) without changing net profit. Whales use this for a "Davis double-click" operation: lifting the stock price with positive earnings while hedging any potential macro slowdown risk with the buyback plan.
3. "Certainty premium" of computing power and storage:
It is realized that the end of AI is storage. After Nvidia solves computing problems, massive data retention must rely on SNDK's sixth-generation 3D NAND technology. Institutions are reallocating funds from software (SaaS) back to this "hardcore infrastructure."
2. The linkage effect on the cryptocurrency market
Profits and confidence in traditional markets transmit to crypto markets through "risk-on" and "sector anchoring" paths:
1. Valuation benchmarking of AI and distributed storage sectors (DePIN)
SNDK's surge validates the global extreme demand for storage capacity. Storage projects in crypto are seen as "decentralized SanDisk," directly inheriting overflow speculative funds.
*$FIL (Filecoin): As the leader in the storage sector, $FIL's correlation with storage hardware manufacturers' stock prices significantly strengthens by 2026. Institutions view its computing power encapsulation logic as the on-chain extension of SNDK's physical hardware.
*$AR (Arweave): With the surge in demand for permanent AI training data, $AR is regarded as the "digital hard drive" of the AI era. Stimulated by SNDK's earnings report, large holder addresses have recently shown significant activity.
*$STORJ: Highly linked to enterprise-level storage demand, the unexpectedly strong enterprise SSD demand mentioned by SNDK is a direct narrative positive for $STORJ.
2. High-performance computing power and AI infrastructure (AI-Crypto)
SNDK's performance proves AI infrastructure investment has not peaked, supporting valuations of AI agents and computing power distribution protocols in crypto markets.
*$RNDR (Render Network): Storage and rendering are inseparable. As the leader in distributed GPU, $RNDR is often the first crypto to react positively after tech stock earnings.
*$TAO (Bittensor): Represents storage and incentives for AI model weights. The prosperity of hardware like SNDK validates the long-term value of underlying protocols.
*$AKT (Akash Network): A combination of cloud storage and computing, boosted by traditional storage giants' buybacks, funds tend to seek similar "infrastructure" targets in crypto markets.
3. Macro liquidity and risk pricing
*$BTC (Bitcoin): If SNDK's buyback triggers a broad rebound in US tech stocks, recession expectations will be delayed. Whales will increase allocation to $BTC as a dual position of "digital gold" and "tech leverage."
*$ETH (Ethereum): With the maturity of its spot ETF ecosystem, $ETH increasingly shows strong positive correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index. SNDK's aggressive buyback helps push $ETH's volatility midpoint higher.
3. Operational suggestions
*Script logic: Use SNDK's buyback authorization to lock the downside and layout corresponding DePIN and AI tracks in the crypto market.
*Key focus: As long as SNDK's stock price holds above $1,250, the AI/Storage sectors in crypto will remain strong.
*Warning: Retail investors chasing $FIL or $AR at this time should beware of institutions taking synchronized profits when SNDK's stock price hits the $1,400 resistance level.
Currently recommended coins to watch: $FIL, $AR, $RNDR, $TAO. $UB $BTC $ETH
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 市场每次 BTC 出现深度回调，微策略（Strategy，原 MicroStrategy）就会被反复拿出来讨论。尤其是出现卖币操作之后，圈内恐慌情绪蔓延，大量传言：“BTC 跌到某个价位，微策略就会爆仓、被动砸盘，带崩整个币价”。很多普通囤币者被这些传闻干扰定投心态，今天抛开情绪，拆解微策略持仓、风险结构、卖币动机，还原真实情况，给 BTC 定投者做参考。 一、基础事实：微策略持仓与卖币事件 微策略是全球最大企业 BTC 持有方，整体持仓加权平均成本在 7.5 万‑7.6 万美元区间。 市场看到微策略卖出部分 BTC 就极度恐慌，但要认清现实：少量卖币不等于立刻开启无节制砸盘，单次小规模卖出，很难直接决定 BTC 大周期币价走向。它已经打破过去 “永不卖币” 叙事，在币价低于自身持仓成本的阶段，出现亏损卖出 BTC 的操作。很多人看到卖币消息就过度悲观，但我们需要分清：短期事件、情绪冲击，和长期基本面风险，二者不能混为一谈。 二、破除最大谣言：不存在 “跌到某价位就自动爆仓强平” 网上流传很多版本 “BTC 跌到 X 万，微策略直接爆仓砸盘”，这个说法并不严谨。 微策略并不是在交易所开Don't directly equate SpaceX unlocking with BTC selling pressure!
On August 6, BTC remained above $64,600, with a weekly increase of about 0.5%. Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi fell 4.4%, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. This combination is more suitable for observing risk appetite and is not enough to directly indicate that BTC has decoupled from risk assets.
SpaceX's first lock-up period expires, with up to approximately 911.5 million shares eligible for sale. Media estimates the nominal value at about $101 billion. The key point is: eligibility to circulate ≠ actual selling ≠ net new issuance in the market.
I interpret such news this way: first, see how many shares can be sold, then how many are actually sold, and finally how much the market absorbs. As of June 30, SpaceX held 18,712 BTC, with the official 10-Q listing a fair value of about $1.098 billion. This represents asset exposure, not that the company will buy or sell BTC on the unlocking day. For $BTC, it is recommended to separately consider price performance, equity supply, and macro risk appetite for a more stable judgment.
Disclaimer: This is only an information summary and logical review, not any investment advice. The market has risks; please conduct your own research. #ADP Employment Cooling, Fed Policy Divergence Intensifies
July's ADP small nonfarm payrolls directly shocked the market, with only 44,000 new jobs added, far below the market expectation of 70,000. The previous value was also revised down from 98,000 to 95,000, hitting a new low for the year. While verbally claiming employment resilience, private sector hiring is already nearly frozen, and this is just the appetizer; the real market test is tomorrow night at 8:30 PM with the nonfarm payroll data.
Looking closer at the structure, it's even more outrageous. Almost all the new jobs rely on the education and healthcare sectors, which added 36,000 at once; the goods-producing sector actually lost 3,000 jobs, with manufacturing and construction both shrinking their hiring. Simply put, except for the essential medical positions, other industries are basically lying flat and not hiring.
Once the data came out, the market immediately lowered rate hike expectations. The probability of a September rate hike dropped directly from 67% to about 55%, U.S. Treasury yields turned downward, and gold followed suit, surging higher again. Interestingly, the Fed insiders started arguing fiercely, with the divergence even more dramatic than the data.
The hawks have been particularly vocal recently. Kashkari and Cook consecutively stated that inflation risks far outweigh employment risks, and since there are no signs of sustained inflation decline, gradual rate hikes should start earlier to avoid being forced into aggressive hikes later. On the dovish side, Williams insisted that the current rate level is already sufficient to suppress inflation, so it's better to wait for more data and not rush. Last week's FOMC vote was 9:3, with three votes against a rate hike, marking the highest internal division in nearly a decade.
The sneakiest is Chair Powell, who gave no forward guidance throughout, saying decisions depend entirely on data and taking it step by step. This effectively shifts all policy uncertainty to the market, leaving everyone guessing.
Back to the crypto world, logically, cooling employment and falling rate hike expectations should be solid positives for risk assets. However, BTC is still stuck around 64,500, barely moving within a 200-point range, looking half-dead. On the contrary, ETH has recently shown signs of an independent rally, supported by expectations for the Glamsterdam upgrade at the end of the month and continuous net inflows into spot ETFs for three weeks, which underpinned a slight strength today, pushing above $1,900, up about 2% in 24 hours. The ETH/BTC ratio also rebounded from its bottom, ending a half-month losing streak.
Honestly, this ETH rally is not just hype. Despite the complicated name, the Glamsterdam upgrade essentially speeds up the network and lowers fees again, especially cutting Layer 2 transaction gas fees significantly. The account abstraction experience will also be further optimized, effectively lowering the entry barrier for ordinary users. Whether the ecosystem can attract new users and grow depends heavily on this infrastructure upgrade. Meanwhile, the spot ETF is also impressive; while BTC ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, ETH ETFs have attracted funds for three consecutive weeks, showing clear institutional accumulation, providing a soft price floor.
But don't get your hopes too high; it's unrealistic to expect an independent major bull market. First, the macro environment is still weighed down by regulatory issues and the CLARITY Act, causing intermittent transmission of positive signals. Without a market rally, ETH itself can't soar. Second, the upgrade expectation has been hyped for almost a month, and many seasoned traders are waiting to "sell the news" when the upgrade lands, so a sell-off might occur at the end of the month.
If the nonfarm payrolls also disappoint like ADP, pushing rate hike expectations down further, BTC and ETH might rally together; if nonfarm exceeds expectations, hawks will jump out to warn again, and the market will face pressure.
Right now, the market is stuck in a tug-of-war, with macro giving a sweet treat and regulation slapping back, making it uncomfortable.
What do you think? Will tomorrow's nonfarm cool down like ADP, or will it slap back the other way?
$BTC $ETH 🚨 SanDisk's earnings report blew past expectations, the AI industry chain continues to heat up, where are the opportunities in the crypto space?
One of tonight's market focus points: SanDisk (SNDK) earnings report.
The data is very impressive:
🔥 Q4 Revenue:
$8.97 billion
Exceeding market expectations of $8.48 billion
🔥 Adjusted EPS:
$39.25
Higher than the expected $34.96
🔥 Data center business:
Year-over-year growth exceeding 100%, reaching about $2.97 billion
At the same time, the company announced an additional $14 billion stock buyback authorization, raising the remaining buyback quota to about $15.5 billion.
Why is SanDisk's upward logic worth attention?
Because its core is not traditional storage, but—AI infrastructure.
Now AI competition has entered the next stage:
GPU → Nvidia handles computing power
Storage → SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix benefit
Cloud computing → Microsoft, Amazon undertake commercialization
AI models are getting bigger, data is increasing, and demand for high-speed storage continues to rise.
What impact does this have on the crypto space?
There has been a common pattern in past market cycles:
US tech stocks rise
⬇️
Market risk appetite increases
⬇️
Funds start seeking high elasticity assets
⬇️
Rotation among BTC → ETH → altcoins
Currently, BTC is still oscillating around $64,000:
Key levels:
🟢 Break above $65,000:
Risk capital sentiment may further release
Mainstream coins like ETH, SOL may see catch-up gains
🔴 Fall below $63,000:
Short-term funds may seek safety again
The market is currently trading on a core logic:
AI represents future growth,
BTC represents certainty within digital assets.
If the US AI industry chain continues to be strong, it could become an important catalyst for the next round of risk asset rallies.
Tonight's key focus:
📌 SanDisk earnings impact on the semiconductor sector
📌 Nasdaq tech stock performance
📌 Whether BTC can break above $65,000
Capital always flows toward the fastest-growing, most certain direction.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 This Coldcard collapse can be considered a significant security incident for the hardware wallet industry. Nearly $114 million worth of Bitcoin was stolen, affecting over 4,000 addresses. The main affected were MK3 single-signature wallets, while multi-signature wallets temporarily avoided risks. Tracing the root cause, it was a low-level code issue from 2021. During the mnemonic phrase generation stage, a weak software random number was mistakenly called. This was not a problem with Bitcoin cryptography itself, but rather a hidden risk planted at the wallet product implementation level. The most lamentable aspect is that this is a loophole that has been dormant for years. Early on, developers reproduced this flaw, but it did not sound a full alarm. Hackers first targeted high-value addresses and mass-harvested assets. As the incident spread, many imitated attackers followed suit, further expanding the scope of their victims. The developer Coinkite's team consists of only five people. A small-scale development team producing hardcore hardware wallets has long been highly regarded in the industry, but this incident has completely exposed the weaknesses of small teams. Many people assume that hardware wallets are absolutely secure 🔴. This incident has sharply shattered that fixed perception. Hardware wallets can only isolate network risks, but if there are bugs in firmware, code logic, or random number generation, assets can still be stolen. There is no such thing as a 100% secure storage solution. The risks of the single-signature model are magnified infinitely. All the incidents involved single-signature addresses; multi-signature wallets were not affected. The risk isolation value of large asset deposits and multi-signature deposits has been reaffirmed by this incident. Habitual singleAfter the earnings report release of AMD, the stock experienced high turnover and intense intraday trading, with the share price showing significant fluctuations following the update on the AI chip business guidance.
Market sentiment: intense battle between bulls and bears / valuation digestion
Key signals: The revenue share of the data center segment continues to rise, becoming the absolute growth engine; however, the gross margin guidance and capital expenditure pace triggered some short-term profit-taking.
Analysis: Cloud service giants (CSP) maintain strong CapEx on AI infrastructure, and AMD's clear second-place substitution effect in the x86 server and AI accelerator card fields is evident.
The market previously assigned AMD a very high premium anchor, so the earnings report is no longer just about exceeding expectations but about the degree to which it exceeds them.
In the short term, the stock price is in a valuation digestion phase following performance realization.
$AMD
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Circle's move this time is something else!
Brothers, I just finished reading Circle's Q2 earnings report. Honestly, the numbers are so-so—revenue was 701 million, short of Wall Street's expected 713 million. But the stock price didn't crash because the market isn't focused on that; it's focused on Arc!
Arc is the real trump card.
The mainnet launches on September 16, and the list of founding validator nodes is terrifying—BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, Standard Chartered Bank, all giants of traditional finance. BlackRock plans to move the BUIDL fund directly onto Arc, and DTCC wants to handle tokenized asset settlements on it.
What does this mean? It means USDC is evolving from a simple stablecoin into the native asset of an institutional-grade financial public chain. Plus, Arc uses USDC as gas fees, perfectly avoiding the gas price volatility issues of ETH, which greatly enhances the experience for institutions.
Look at what Circle is doing: they obtained the OCC federal banking license, becoming one of the first stablecoin issuers to hold a federal banking license. This basically tells the world—I'm compliant, institutions can come with confidence.
But I have to pour cold water.
Whether Arc can take off is still unknown. Although the ARC token presale raised 242 million, led by a16z with BlackRock also participating, all the chain's validator nodes are centralized institutions, which somewhat contradicts the spirit of decentralization. Also, Circle's revenue still heavily depends on USDC reserve yields, which have dropped from 4.14% to 3.5%. If the Fed continues to cut interest rates, this business will become difficult.
My view is—USDC's base is expanding, and Arc is a future option.
Visa data shows USDC accounts for 70% of adjusted stablecoin trading volume, while USDT only has 25%. This trend is already clear. But whether Arc can become a second growth curve depends on whether institutions actually use it after the mainnet launch in September.
Anyway, I hold USDC as a stablecoin, and as for Arc, I'll wait and see, and talk about it once it takes off. $SKHYNIX shows a sharp divergence at the 1061 level, with the retail long-short ratio soaring to 3.0 while million-dollar large holders net increased shorts by over $37 million. The current core contradiction lies in whether retail liquidity can absorb institutional chips and the long liquidation chain.
The price dropped 10% within 24 hours to 1061, while the long-short ratio rose from 2.44 to 3.0, indicating retail funds are rapidly concentrating bets on a rebound. Million-dollar large holders cut 7.5 million long positions and added 3.45 million short positions within 24 hours, resulting in a net short lead of $37 million over longs, establishing net selling pressure from main funds.
In terms of driving factors, large holders’ risk-averse selling dominated short-term price decline, while retail bottom-fishing against the trend amplified the imbalance in chip absorption. In the past 4 hours, 5 new large holders established nearly $10 million long positions at an average price of 1081, with unrealized losses exceeding $170,000. Among them, 2394 long contracts entered at 1073 have a forced liquidation price at 1016, which forms a key node for cascading long liquidations on the downside.
Rebound scenario: If the price stabilizes and returns above 1081, the nearly $10 million large holder longs in unrealized loss will be relieved, slowing down downside liquidation risk. Confirmation of a rebound requires observing the retail long-short ratio falling below 2.5 and active closing of the $37 million net short positions by large holders. If large holders increase long positions again, the price may repair toward the 1100 range.
Downtrend scenario: If the price continues to probe lower and breaks through the 1016 forced liquidation line, it will trigger forced liquidation of 2394 large holder long contracts, causing a long squeeze and high volatility washout. The invalidation variable of the downtrend logic is if large holders take large-scale profit closing of net short positions before hitting the forced liquidation line, preventing further price bottoming.
Range-bound scenario: If the price trades between the 1016 forced liquidation line and the 1081 large holder entry average price, the market will enter a consolidation phase. If the retail long-short ratio stabilizes near 3.0 and large holders do not add 3.45 million short positions, the market will digest the 10% drop by exchanging time for space.
Key observations for the next 24 hours include the support strength at the 1016 liquidation price, whether million-dollar large holders’ net short positions break through $40 million, and whether the long-short ratio continues climbing toward extreme levels.
#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权🔸Tokenized Treasury Capitalization Hits US$16.16 Billion, Continues to Rise Despite Crypto Bear Market.
The onchain market capitalization of US Treasury funds increased from US$6.3 billion (July 2025) to US$16.16 billion (July 2026), a 2.5x growth in one year, with a sharp acceleration since January 2026 (from US$9 billion to US$10.3 billion in just one month). Products like BlackRock BUIDL (market leader, ~40% share, 4-5% APY yield from original tokenized T-bills) dominate, with Ethereum (43.3%) and BNB Chain (31.4%) as the main networks.
What makes this data important: this growth continues even though the overall crypto market has been bearish since October 2025.
🔸What Is the Impact on the Crypto Market?
This confirms our macro thesis: as long as The Fed remains hawkish and interest rates stay high, tokenized treasury becomes a capital parking spot that provides yield while keeping investors "inside" the crypto ecosystem rather than fully exiting. It is also a signal of institutional validation (BlackRock, Franklin Templeton) for crypto infrastructure operating independently from $BTC / $ETH price sentiment 8.6 索拉$SOL 做空分析 入场区间：74.15 - 74.80 防守止损：75.20 第一目标：73.50 - 73.20 第二目标：72.80 - 72.50 SOL 今早触及 74.80 高点后快速回落，盘中一度下探至 73.20 低位，当前反弹至 74.15 附近震荡整理，这波冲高同样依靠期货杠杆资金拉动，现货承接力度偏弱，属于脉冲式拉升，行情延续性不足。宏观层面整体市场在非农数据前资金观望情绪浓厚，主流币上涨乏力会连带拖累 SOL 走势；筹码结构上 74.15-74.80 区间堆积了本轮冲高的短线套牢盘，每一轮反弹都会遭遇抛压；技术面上冲高后走出深幅回调，4 小时级别上涨动能衰减、高位有滞涨信号，15 分钟反弹未能有效突破前期高点，短期回调下行压力偏大。综合来看，数据落地前优先依托上方压力区间做反弹高空更为稳妥。#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk put on a classic show last night.
The performance itself was solid, with revenue at 8.97 billion, surpassing the expected 8.48 billion. Earnings per share were $39.25, significantly higher than the expected $34.96. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, bringing the total buyback authorization on the books to $15.5 billion. Looking at these numbers alone, this is a flawless earnings report.
But the stock dropped 12% after hours.
The problem lies in the guidance. Next quarter's revenue guidance is between 10.3 and 10.8 billion, with a midpoint of 10.55 billion, slightly below the market's most optimistic expectations. The entire market has already priced in the expectation that "storage prices will continue to rise." As long as your guidance doesn't support this narrative, no matter how good the results are, the market will sell off first.
This is exactly the same script as AMD's situation a few days ago.
For the crypto community, this signal has two layers of reference.
First, the rise in storage prices may be slowing down. This is a relatively positive signal for miners—if hardware costs no longer keep rising, miners' marginal profit pressure will ease a bit.
Second, this is not just SanDisk's problem; the entire tech stock sector is undergoing a logic shift—the market no longer gives any premium for "not bad" results. You either exceed expectations and provide an even more optimistic future, or you get hit. This pricing logic will inevitably transmit to the crypto market. Projects that rely solely on storytelling without sustained delivery capabilities will be accelerated out in the current environment.
My judgment is simple: SanDisk's fundamentals are fine, storage demand remains, the drop is due to a market expectation gap, not industry logic.
$BTC $SNDK $GRVT Long-term pressure of the inflation model: $DOGE has a fixed annual issuance of 5 billion coins with unlimited supply. In a cycle dominated by the BTC halving narrative, is this "mild inflation" a disadvantage or selectively ignored by the market?
5 billion coins annually sounds scary, but let's do the math first. On the evening of August 6, $DOGE was priced at $0.070, with a market cap of $10.9 billion and a circulating supply just over 155 billion coins. A fixed issuance of 5 billion coins means the current annual inflation rate is about 3.2%, and this rate decreases year by year—after ten years, when the circulating supply reaches 200 billion, the inflation rate will drop to just 2.5%. On the other hand, BTC is currently priced around $64,000, having halved from the high of $126,000 last October, with the market fear and greed index at only 27, a typical deep bear market. Discussing DOGE's inflation model at this critical moment is actually more interesting than during a bull market.
First, why hasn't the market killed DOGE over its unlimited supply? The reason is straightforward: a 3.2% inflation rate is not exaggerated compared to macro assets; the US dollar M2 money supply has long expanded at a higher rate, and gold's stock annual growth is about 1.5% to 2%. BTC believers constantly shout "hard money," but BTC's problem lies precisely in its too rigid supply curve—the block rewards keep halving, and the network security budget must rely on transaction fees long-term, which remains unresolved. DOGE's fixed issuance actually guarantees miners always have income and transaction fees remain cheap. As a "spendable" coin, its monetary design is internally consistent. The market is not selectively ignoring this; it votes with its feet to acknowledge this logic—otherwise, DOGE wouldn't have survived past 2015.
However, in a cycle dominated by the BTC halving narrative, this logic's disadvantage is real and structural. The halving narrative is essentially scarcity marketing, giving the market a collective "supply shock" psychological hint every four years, and ETF institutional funds buy into this story. DOGE lacks this hook. Institutions writing reports for allocation committees cannot package "printing 5 billion more coins annually" as a positive, so firms like BlackRock will never endorse DOGE ETFs to the extent they do BTC. This gap is amplified in bear markets: BTC has dropped 48% but still has institutional cost-line support, while DOGE has fallen over 80% from its high. At $0.070, it can't even tell a decent "scarcity moat" story.
From another angle, 5 billion coins annually at the current price equals $350 million in new selling pressure. The market needs a net inflow of $350 million annually just to maintain the price. In bull markets, this is negligible; in bear markets, it's continuous downward pressure—miners must sell coins to pay electricity bills, and this selling pressure is rigid, unrelated to sentiment.
So the conclusion shouldn't be a binary "inflation is a disadvantage or advantage." DOGE's inflation model means it can't be digital gold but can be digital pocket change. Its real problem isn't on the supply side but the demand side: if payment scenarios and tipping culture can't support $350 million in annual absorption, inflation is a blunt knife; if someday platform X truly integrates DOGE into its payment system and demand opens up, this inflation is a reasonable cost to maintain network operation. The market's core contradiction has never been those 5 billion coins but whether people keep using it. Watch the $0.068 support level; if broken, look to $0.064; if held, sideways movement awaits demand-side stories. The supply-side math has been clear for thirteen years.$SNDK is slightly bearish in the short term, but the mid-term logic remains intact. If it pulls back to $1,200–$1,250 and shows clear support, it becomes worth watching.
It's not that the fundamentals have collapsed, but that the performance is good while market expectations were even higher.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; data center revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter, with AI storage demand still the core driver. However, the stock price fell from the June high of $2,350 to oscillate between $1,200–$1,450. Essentially, this is profit-taking and deleveraging after high expectations were unmet, similar to the previous trends of Samsung and SK Hynix—the cyclical logic hasn't disappeared, but capital needs to be repriced.
Short term:
Support: $1,200–$1,250; if volume increases and stabilizes here, recovery is possible
If it breaks below, watch $1,100–$1,150
Resistance above: $1,400–$1,450; regaining this level is needed to improve sentiment
Mid-term remains positive: core logic such as AI data center demand, storage price increases, and order growth remains unchanged.
Strategy: Do not chase rebounds in the short term; wait for panic to subside and price to find support. A deep pullback is more comfortable than chasing highs.
Latest performance (8/6): The stock closed at $1,350.50 (-5.40%), with after-hours lows between $1,243–$1,288, extending the decline to 7%-8%. Intraday highs were around $1,440–$1,447, lows near $1,340. The SNDKUSDT contract is highly correlated, with leveraged positions showing amplified volatility. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SNDK What's the situation today
SNDK (SanDisk) showed weakness last night, closing down 5.4% at $1350.5, and continued to decline after hours, plunging nearly 8% again.
The earnings report itself was very strong, with revenue and profits significantly exceeding expectations, and a $14 billion buyback plan was announced. However, investor focus shifted to the next quarter's revenue guidance, which failed to meet market expectations at the upper limit, prompting bulls to cash out immediately.
In early trading, it once surged to test resistance near 1440, but selling pressure kept coming, leading to a full-day decline with an accelerated drop near the close.
The previous storage sector rally had huge gains, accumulating a lot of profit-taking positions; any slight miss in expectations easily triggers concentrated selling. Western Digital in the same sector also fell sharply, putting collective pressure on the storage track.
In the short term, the 1430–1450 range has become strong resistance, with support first seen at 1340; if support fails, there is room for further pullback. For such a stock that surged dramatically, sentiment reverses quickly after earnings release, so don't rush to bottom-fish or gamble on a rebound.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ SanDisk $SNDK earnings exploded, but it still fell after hours.
Revenue was 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, with a profit of 6.9 billion turning losses into gains directly. The data center business surged 437%—all driven hard by AI.
Then the market gave a slap: next quarter revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, with the midpoint slightly below analyst expectations. Gross margin stuck around 84%, no further increase. The market threshold is too high now; exceeding expectations is the baseline, not exceeding is the problem.
On the call, management was quite firm: 8 major customers signed long-term agreements, more than half of the capacity is already locked out for 2027, two-thirds locked for 2028, with a minimum guaranteed revenue of 93.9 billion. The board also approved a 14 billion buyback plan to support the stock price.
For BTC: SanDisk fell 8% after hours, storage stocks collectively took a hit, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was pressured as well. Tech sector sentiment is suppressed, and BTC can't escape short term. However, the real demand for AI storage is intact, and long-term orders locked through 2028 indicate no problem with the market outlook—once the earnings season storm passes, what needs to recover will come back. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 7 smart money wallets just flipped on $AKE this week, net buying $36K while price sits at -0.1%, dead flat.
here's the twist: over the past 30 days these same cohorts were net SELLERS to the tune of $587K. this week's $36K buy is a reversal, not a continuation. something changed their mind.
one tracked wallet alone added 1950.7M tokens in 7d. but the fresh tape right now is 65 sells vs 35 buys, sellers winning the last few hours even as the weekly flow leans accumulation. that gap is real, not smoothing it over.
7 wallets turning bullish after months of dumping is a signal worth watching, not a promise. could be early conviction, could be noise. NFA 👀A Feng's continuous profitability is truly scary.
Breaking down some details of his continuous profits.
1. Doesn't sleep.
2. Whenever a platform gets hot, he blindly invests in new coins, not missing a single one. He just takes advantage of the platform's hot period dividends because the probability of price increase is higher than a drop.
3. Takes about 20% profit to break even, then lets the profits run. Don't underestimate this small profit; that's the power of the internal market. This guy has learned well, avoiding coins controlled by manipulators.
4. For coins on the gain leaderboard, he goes heavy even without conditions. Bold and meticulous, his skill level is not comparable to ordinary retail investors. Indeed, he has deep pockets.
5. Abandoned the old strategy of making money and running, leaving some gains for followers, becoming smarter. He knows that longevity is the right path.
6. Recently started losing continuously because no platform can stay hot forever.
7. Uses less capital than before, no longer daring to take large positions. His risk control is indeed skilled.
Although this guy's pool draining is criticized, you have to admire his strategy.
Making money has its reasons. Watching ETH these past two days, there's a very clear feeling: the market isn't without buyers, but no one is willing to aggressively push above 1900.
BTC has returned to around 64500, while ETH is grinding back and forth between 1870 and 1900. On the surface, major coins are making slight recoveries, but the real issue is that market sentiment hasn't returned along with the price. The total market cap is warming up and volume is increasing, but the funds seem more like they're testing the waters rather than driving a trend.
The most awkward thing about this ETH cycle is its positioning. If BTC continues to hold steady, ETH usually becomes the first target for funds spreading from BTC to altcoins. But if BTC is just rebounding without truly entering a new trend, ETH easily turns into a high-volatility follower—its gains aren't satisfying, and its drops are more severe than BTC's.
Looking at the previous movement, ETH rebounded from about $1505 in June to nearly $1980, which is a decent bounce, but $2000 has never been effectively broken. This level is not just a round number but more like a confidence test for bulls. If it can hold above, the market will start talking about ETH catching up and altcoins warming up. If it can't, short-term funds will likely continue to sell high and buy low.
Personally, I focus on three signals:
First, whether BTC can hold above 64000. Without BTC holding, ETH won't have the confidence to try for 2000.
Second, ETH's relative strength against BTC. ETH rising alone isn't surprising; the key is whether it can outperform BTC. Only if ETH/BTC keeps strengthening does it indicate funds are accepting higher-risk assets.
Third, whether $2000 can be broken through with volume. A breakout without volume is likely just a pump-and-dump. The ideal move is a breakout followed by a retest that holds, turning 1900 into support.
Right now, it's not suitable to chase after a single green candle, nor to be outright bearish just because of sideways movement. ETH seems to be waiting for the broader market to reignite risk appetite. Watch 2000 above and 1800 below. Until the range breaks, keep emotions low and manage positions carefully $ETH $BTC Ethereum Classic has insisted on "no compromise" for ten years, but the market voted with its feet — it neither became a better Ethereum nor a truly useful public chain, leaving only an empty shell sustained by sentiment.
$ETC is an "ideological token" completely marginalized by the times — living on the "Code is Law" sentiment, with an almost blank ecosystem, a security history that's hard to look back on, and in the long term more like an emotional support for miners and veteran holders rather than a public chain asset with real value.
As an EVM-compatible chain, ETC has almost no decent DeFi, stablecoins, L2, or killer apps. TVL has long been close to zero, daily active users and developer activity are far below mainstream public chains. It is not a "backup Ethereum," but an almost unused shell.
It suffered multiple successful 51% attacks in 2019-2020, with double-spend incidents causing exchanges to suspend deposits and withdrawals temporarily. Although hash power increased after the merge, as a relatively small PoW chain, the attack cost remains relatively manageable. Historical stains plus ongoing security risks have made institutions basically keep their distance.
"No rollback, insist on Code is Law" might have had a market in 2016, but by 2026, the market cares more about implementation, revenue, and network effects. ETC has neither ETH's ecological moat nor BTC's scarcity consensus, leaving only a small circle of sentiment.
The current price is far below the historical high (ATH around $160-170), with a persistent weakness in recent years. The halving (5M20 mechanism) has limited effect on a coin lacking real demand, and miner cost pressure may instead intensify sell-offs.
$ETH Once SanDisk's earnings report came out, many people were stunned: the data clearly exploded, so why did the stock price still plummet?
This quarter, two core metrics both exceeded expectations, and they also executed a massive buyback authorization worth tens of billions. Yet, after hours, the stock price dropped sharply, giving those who chased the highs a harsh lesson.
Let's first look at the hard data.
SanDisk's FY2026 Q4 revenue reached 8.97 billion, while the market previously thought 8.48 billion would be good. Adjusted EPS hit $39.25, significantly higher than the expected $34.96.
Delivering such results basically means the real demand for AI storage is underpinning the business. Storage orders driven by AI business directly supported this quarter's performance.
Moreover, the company pulled a big move.
They approved a new $14 billion stock buyback authorization. Adding the remaining previous authorization, they now hold a total buyback capacity of $15.5 billion.
Normally, a company spending real cash to buy back its own shares is a solid positive signal, essentially telling the market "we believe we are valuable."
But the capital market never looks at how much was earned in the past; it only cares about how much can be earned going forward.
The problem lies in the guidance for the next quarter.
FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance is between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion. The midpoint is slightly lower than the market's previous consensus.
Such a small gap directly dampened market sentiment, causing the stock price to fall after hours.
Now everyone's perspective has changed.
Previously, when looking at earnings reports, the question was "Did this quarter beat expectations?" Now, the focus has shifted to "How long can this AI storage wave last?"
So the real question on the table is very practical.
Is it that the earnings were so good that investors took the opportunity to cash out and run? Or was the market's prior expectation too high, so even with strong results, it still didn't meet the imagined heights?
Whether the AI storage sector can continue depends on more than just hot orders.
Going forward, we need to watch several things: Can storage chip price increases be sustained? Will demand for high-bandwidth flash memory continue to explode? Can companies' real profitability support current valuations?
Storage is an indispensable link in the entire AI industry chain. This earnings report has actually disrupted many plans.
Some see strong current performance and large buybacks and think to buy on dips. Others are scared off by next quarter's guidance and choose to wait and see, hesitant to enter.
Considering current market prices—SKHYNIX at 1062, SNDK at 1236, MU at 872—the valuations of these three leaders clearly reflect this divergence.
Whether AI storage is a long-term opportunity is no longer something that can be glossed over by storytelling alone.
Past performance only proves current demand is hot, but future valuations cannot be sustained by imagination alone.
Whether the price hike logic can continue, whether downstream customers' real demand will recede, and whether companies can turn orders into real, sustained profits—these are the key things to verify next.
Don't blindly rush in just because a single quarter's earnings look good, nor dismiss the entire sector just because one quarter's guidance is weak.
No one can be 100% sure how long the AI storage story will last. What we can do is closely monitor subsequent price hikes and real downstream demand, then make gradual judgments, always leaving enough margin for error in our positions.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk's earnings report, to be honest, the numbers are ridiculously good, but the market's reaction is even more intriguing.
Let's start with the fundamentals. In the early hours of August 6 Beijing time, SanDisk released its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report: revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, crushing the expected $8.39 billion; adjusted EPS of $39.25, compared to $0.29 a year ago; gross margin hit 84.6%, up from about 26% a year ago. Data center business revenue was $2.98 billion, up 1298% year-over-year—this is not just growth, it's like a different species. The board also approved a $14 billion buyback, bringing total authorization to $15.5 billion. Zero debt, $7 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter, the cash machine is firing on all cylinders.
Logically, such a report should send the stock soaring. But what happened? After-hours it dropped over 8%, closed down 5.4% at $1350.5, and continued to fall to $1243 in after-hours trading. The reason is simple: the midpoint of next quarter's guidance is $10.55 billion, below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion. Just this little "imperfection" turned a double-beat earnings report into a negative.
What does this mean? It means the AI storage segment is already priced to the extreme. The stock has risen nearly 30 times since the spin-off listing; the market demands not just good, but better every time. Any hint of slowing growth is taken by high-level holders as a signal to exit. This is a classic "good news fully priced" scenario—the fundamentals aren't bad, but expectations are overextended.
Comparing this to the crypto market, the feeling is very familiar. SanDisk's current situation is almost identical to high-level altcoins: the logic is real, AI storage demand is real, but the price has already baked in two years of optimism. When an asset reaches a stage where it "must continuously beat expectations just to stay flat," it no longer trades on value but on emotional momentum.
Also, don't overlook a linkage: if the US AI sector collectively pulls back due to guidance issues, risk appetite contraction will spill over into crypto. In past tech earnings shocks in US stocks, BTC initially fell along but then diverged. The logic of rising storage prices also indirectly impacts crypto—hardware costs for miners and data centers are rising, which is invisible pressure on hash rate expansion and miner profit margins.
In summary: SanDisk's fundamentals are solid, but the stock price has run three blocks ahead of the fundamentals. The $14 billion buyback is a reassurance but also a signal from management acknowledging "valuation is too high and needs support." For high-level assets, respect expectations. $SNDK $FIL
Why do you always lose every time you play?
Playing FIL always results in a loss. It's not your technical fault; it's the inherent disadvantage of the coin itself, compounded by common retail investor mistakes—double pitfalls.
1. The coin itself is inherently "hard to make money" (underlying hard logic)
There is long-term continuous selling pressure, and rebounds are naturally weak.
Miners have operational costs when mining FIL, so whenever the price slightly rebounds, they habitually "mine, sell, and withdraw"; plus, early investors’ tokens are continuously unlocking.
Price surges easily trigger sell-offs. Typical characteristics: rapid pulse-like spikes up, followed by even faster drops. It’s hard to sustain a continuous trend, often just after chasing in, the price immediately reverses downward.
The narrative has long faded, and capital interest keeps declining.
In the early days, it was hyped to high levels based on "distributed storage and miner windfalls," but later people saw the reality: real paid storage demand is very low, a large amount of computing power is wasted on useless junk data, and commercial implementation progress is far behind expectations.
Currently, it rarely features in market hotspots. The AI sector and MEME tokens are sucking liquidity. There is no large capital actively and continuously positioning in FIL; mostly short-term speculative traders play one-day games.
It’s prone to a death spiral.
FIL has a staking mechanism. When the market weakens continuously, staked positions get liquidated, increasing sell pressure as prices fall; rebounds are only technical corrections and rarely reverse the medium-term downtrend.
2. Common pitfalls for ordinary people trading FIL (direct causes of losses)
Always trying to bottom-fish "thinking the price is low enough"
Many see the current price has dropped a lot from historical highs and subjectively think it’s cheap, repeatedly buying on the left side.
Weak coins don’t have a "bottom with nowhere to fall." After low points, there can be even lower ones. Slow declines grind positions down and trap holders.
Mistaking short-term pulses for trend reversals
FIL often suddenly surges short-term. Many see the big rise and chase in, thinking the trend has started, but it’s just speculative traders pumping and dumping, with prices quickly falling back within minutes to hours, trapping buyers at the top.
Frequently trading against the trend in short-term back-and-forth moves
For coins with a medium-term downtrend, it’s better to short on rallies rather than repeatedly going long to catch rebounds.
In choppy, slow-decline markets, rebound space is small and downside is large, resulting in small profits but big losses. A few wins can’t withstand one deep correction.
Misled by old concepts
Still stuck on the old perception of "storage sector leader," ignoring that market funds have long rotated to new narratives. For old bull market hotspots to rise again, extremely strong major positive catalysts are needed; otherwise, it’s hard to form a trend.
3. Simple and practical operational advice
At this stage, try to reduce frequent long bets on rebounds. Without volume breakout of key resistance levels, it’s not suitable for heavy positions;
If you want to trade, treat it as ultra-short-term quick in and out, don’t hold long-term hoping for big moves, strictly set stop losses, and don’t hold losses;
In a continuously declining market environment, prioritize targets with capital concentration and sustained hotspots, and avoid repeatedly speculating on weak coins.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ The "firewall" between the White House and the Federal Reserve seems to have loosened—this time, Trump took the initiative to make the call. According to The Wall Street Journal, since Kevin Wash took office as Federal Reserve Chair, Trump has called Wash multiple times to seek advice on the Iran issue and the economic impact of artificial intelligence. This communication model breaks the traditional practice of keeping distance from the Federal Reserve Chairman in recent years. Call details and characteristics: Communication pattern: Sources revealed that Trump's calls to Wash were intermittent—after several consecutive days of multiple calls, they would go silent for a long time. Discussion topics: Trump sought Wash's opinion on the progress of the war in Iran and the impact of AI development on the economy. Economic assessment: During the call with Trump, Wash expressed a positive outlook on the economy. Policy Communication: It is currently unclear whether the two had discussed monetary policy. A source familiar with the conversation insisted that since Walsh's appointment, the president has never mentioned interest rate topics. Why is the market paying attention? Federal Reserve independence is the cornerstone of financial market stability. Since the 1980s, successive U.S. presidents have generally respected this principle and avoided frequent policy discussions with the Fed chair. Trump's breakthrough with this time by proactively establishing communication channels with Wash is itself a market noteworthy move. From the content perspective, Trump consulted Walsh about the Iran war and the economic impact of AI—these two topics are precisely the macro variables the market is currently most concerned about. Meanwhile, Walsh expressed a positive outlook on the economy in his communications, subtly contrasting with the recent cautious rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials on inflation risks, but he still took office#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
Gold has surged back to 4200 USD, so why hasn't BTC followed?
Gold has already hit 4200, but $BTC is just sideways—this script is seriously off!
Yesterday, gold had a big bullish candle reaching 4213, a 2.8% surge in one day, with market cap swelling by 1.3 trillion. What does 1.3 trillion mean? Bitcoin's total market cap is only about 1.29 trillion. Gold grew by a full $BTC market cap in one trading day, while BTC itself only moved 0.17%.
Isn't that awkward?
Isn't Bitcoin always claiming to be "digital gold"? What about its safe-haven properties? The inflation hedge narrative? Meanwhile, gold is skyrocketing, and BTC is stuck at 64000 like it's been immobilized.
Honestly, it's not that BTC isn't trying; the money just isn't flowing in.
Look who's buying gold—China. Bloomberg data shows China's gold spot ETFs have had net inflows for 14 consecutive trading days, plus the central bank has increased holdings for 20 straight months, buying 82 tons just this year. The government is buying, institutions are buying, retail is following—this is a "government and people united" buying spree.
And what about Bitcoin? Spot ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive months, with over 100,000 BTC net leaving since 2026. Even Hashdex shut down the US spot ETF, bluntly stating the reason—funds are chasing AI now, who still plays this?
CryptoQuant says for BTC to truly rebound, three conditions must be met: continuous ETF inflows, US Treasury yields stabilizing, and the Fed stopping hawkish moves. None of these conditions are in place right now.
My feeling now is: BTC has been categorized and recategorized by the market, and now it's in the "counts for nothing" category. It doesn't follow tech stocks when they rise, nor gold when it surges; it's become an orphan asset, propped up only by its own capital flows.
Holding spot, no adding positions, waiting for it to choose a direction. At 64000, there's room to fall and resistance going up—in short, it's Schrödinger's Bitcoin. Bet if you want, I'll just survive for now. Crypto Daily · August 6, 2026
1. One-sentence summary today
BTC is hovering around 64500, neither bulls nor bears dare to make a move; today is a typical waiting game.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral to bearish
Bulls are net losing nearly 40 million, bears are profiting, the market speaks.
3. Core market today
BTC: $64,565 | +0.27% | Slight gain, on-chain data is weak, I dare not chase at this level
ETH: $1,898 | +1.36% | Relatively stronger but still not holding above 1900, watching first
Strongest sector today: AI concept | ZHIPU | 24h +6.8%, OI shrinking while price rises, funds are buying in
Weakest sector today: Small-cap Meme | FLNC | 24h -30.9%, OI surges 82% with simultaneous dumping, typical short squeeze
4. Most important news today
[Trump frequently calls Fed Chair Waller seeking advice on economic impact of Iran war]
[Impact] This news is short-term negative for market sentiment—the president and central bank chair are too close, raising concerns about monetary policy independence and dollar creditworthiness, but crypto reacts sluggishly
[My judgment] Market reaction is clearly insufficient. The economic impact of the Iran war combined with doubts about Fed independence would have caused a meltdown before. Now everyone seems numb, but I think this signal deserves continuous attention
[MEXC launches KIMI (Moonshot AI) pre-IPO futures]
[Impact] Domestic AI unicorn Moonshot enters crypto market via pre-IPO futures, providing short-term sentiment boost to AI narrative sector
[My judgment] This is interesting. Pre-IPO futures essentially bet on listing expectations, with poor liquidity and high risk, but it shows acceleration of AI asset tokenization. Sector sentiment benefits short-term, but don’t treat this as fundamental
[Binance announces multiple TradFi perpetual contracts launch]
[Impact] Traditional financial assets continue to penetrate crypto market, medium-term support for platform traffic and BNB ecosystem
[My judgment] The direction is right, but short-term no help for BNB price—BNB even dropped 1% today, those who understand know why
5. Signals worth watching today
Signal: BTC bulls’ net position loss nearly $59 million, bears net profit $20 million, bull-bear capital ratio close to 1:1 but bulls are losing money
Why it matters: More bulls but losing money indicates price near or below bull cost line; once stop-loss cascade triggers, downside space will open
Tracking period: short-term
Signal: AI concept coin (ZHIPU) OI shrinks while price rises, indicating "short covering driving the rally"
Why it matters: This structure is unsustainable; once shorts cover fully, momentum fades, don’t chase
Tracking period: short-term
6. Key events preview for tomorrow
[Tonight - Tomorrow] Ongoing macro dynamics of Iran situation → Expected impact: bearish, geopolitical risk premium weighs on market sentiment
[Anytime] Fed Chair Waller related statements → Expected impact: neutral to bearish, Trump pressure narrative if intensifies is unfavorable for risk assets
[Within this week] Binance TradFi perpetual contracts official launch → Expected impact: neutral, short-term mostly for show
7. Today’s view
After reviewing data this morning, honestly a bit boring. BTC at 64500, bulls losing money, bears profiting, but no big moves from either side. What concerns me most is the Trump-Waller news—the Fed independence issue, market reaction is too calm, almost unnaturally so. You never make money from what you already know; for such macro variables, thinking ahead is much better than chasing rallies or panicking later.ENS has done well in the domain name business but has turned its token and DAO into an internal conflict scene—the protocol has cash flow, but holders are left only with voting rights and disputes.
$ENS was once one of the cleanest and most practically useful infrastructure tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem, but now it is stuck in governance chaos, weak value capture, and a DAO that is essentially a facade—the protocol itself is still making money, but token holders are increasingly like bystanders.
The ENS protocol continuously generates real revenue through .eth domain registration and renewal, but this income mainly goes into the DAO treasury for development, funding, and operations, with almost no direct returns to $ENS holders. Holding the token essentially only grants "voting rights," not a share of the protocol’s profits. In the long run, this makes $ENS more like a "governance ticket" rather than an asset supported by cash flow.
In mid-2026, fierce disputes erupted over whether to transfer daily operations and treasury control to the ENS Foundation. Issues such as the founder’s disproportionately high voting weight, representative fatigue, low participation rates, and mutual accusations of "treasury capture" were exposed. The DAO became a battleground for a few large holders and the core team, with ordinary holders having almost no real influence. This directly undermines the narrative of "decentralized governance."
There is a clear imbalance between the DAO treasury size, circulating market cap, and actual delegated voting volume, theoretically exposing the risk of a "RFV attack" by large funds (using relatively low-cost votes to control the treasury). Protective mechanisms like the security council have also sparked controversy, further deepening community divisions.
The .eth domain remains firmly established as the Ethereum identity standard, but growth potential is limited. Competing domain services, multi-chain identity solutions, and user complaints about high gas and renewal costs all restrict further expansion. The token price has sharply fallen from historical highs, reflecting the market’s loss of patience with its "growth story."
Core development still heavily relies on entities like ENS Labs, and the DAO often falls into internal conflicts over major decisions. On the surface, it is decentralized, but actual execution and direction are increasingly weak.
$ETH SPCX's earnings report has finally been released. I was looking at the data until midnight last night. Honestly, it's quite emotional—the company's performance is indeed strong, but the stock price just doesn't cooperate, a typical case of "good news fully priced turning into bad news."
Let's look at the core data first:
Revenue of $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion. Net loss narrowed to $541 million, compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Loss per share was 9 cents, while the market expected a 26-cent loss. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 billion, a staggering 191% year-over-year increase. These numbers would be explosive for any company.
Breaking down the three main businesses:
Starlink is the most stable. Connectivity business revenue was $4.29 billion, up 66% year-over-year, with users doubling to 12 million. Operating profit was $1.66 billion, the only profitable segment. Starlink is providing cash flow to the entire company.
The AI business is a surprise. Revenue was $2.56 billion, a 247% year-over-year surge, and adjusted EBITDA actually turned positive at $1.146 billion. Previously, the market was most worried about AI losses, but now we see a glimmer of profitability.
The aerospace business is dragging behind. Revenue was $962 million, up 29% year-over-year, but operating loss was $542 million, 47% worse than last year. Starship R&D is very cash-intensive, with a single quarter investment of $1.076 billion.
Where's the problem? Capital expenditure.
Q2 capital expenditure was $18.37 billion, while the market expected only $13.2 billion. Of that, $15.8 billion was invested in AI, doubling from the previous quarter. Wall Street expects over $45 billion for the full year. No matter how good the data is, seeing this burn rate makes the market nervous.
After-hours trading saw a drop of over 8%.
There's an even bigger risk—the lock-up expiration on August 6.
Up to 911 million internal shares will be unlocked, equivalent to three times the current float. Even if only a portion is sold, the selling pressure will be huge.
To be honest, SPCX's long-term logic is sound—Starlink is generating cash, AI is reducing losses, Starship is making breakthroughs, and ARR is expected to exceed 100 billion by year-end. But the market doesn't care about long-term logic in the short term; high capital expenditure and lock-up pressure are two big issues, so investors are hesitant to jump in.
Wait until the lock-up sentiment is digested before considering. Entering now is likely to catch a falling knife.
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #美股全线走高，加密股领涨
$SPCX #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Friends, I stayed up late last night to finish reading Circle's earnings report. My biggest takeaway is this: Circle is really in a hurry now, and it’s putting all its bets on a new thing called “Arc.”
You might wonder, isn’t Circle just making easy money from USDC (stablecoin) interest? Indeed, their Q2 earnings looked good, with a net profit of over 48 million. But personally, I think there are hidden concerns behind this. Why? Because the growth rate of USDC circulation has slowed down, and more people are worried about how long Circle can rely solely on interest income if rates drop in the future.
So this time, Circle didn’t hold back and directly launched its “second growth curve” — the Arc mainnet. Let me break it down simply: I think this move is pretty brilliant.
First, what exactly is Arc? You can think of it as a “dedicated expressway” that Circle built specifically for stablecoins and real-world assets (like government bonds). Previously, USDC was like dead money sitting in a bank, but with Arc, Circle wants USDC to become “liquid money” that can flow anytime. Whether it’s cross-border payments or AI robots settling accounts with each other, they’ll use it.
Second, this isn’t just Circle bragging; they’ve brought in a group of “top-tier heavyweights” to back it. I checked, and big Wall Street and financial players like BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard have joined the Arc camp. Even BlackRock is preparing to move its tokenized funds onto Arc. I think this is Circle’s real ace to get Wall Street to pay up.
However, as an ordinary investor, I have to be a bit cautious. I personally think Arc is still in the “pie-in-the-sky” stage, and the actual money to be made is still very limited. Also, the stablecoin space is extremely competitive now, and regulations haven’t fully loosened yet. Whether this project can take off smoothly remains uncertain.
To sum up my view: Circle betting on Arc shows it doesn’t want to just be a “spread earner”; it wants to be the future “financial infrastructure.” If the Arc mainnet launches smoothly in September, USDC could indeed see a big surge. But until then, we should hold tight to our wallets, watch closely, and wait for real profit results before making moves. $SNDK Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion,
estimated at $8.394 billion
Why did SanDisk's stock drop in response?
1. Earnings beat expectations = fulfilling already anticipated positive news
2. No new, bigger growth prospects given to the market.
3. Cyclical stock at a high level
4. "Just meeting expectations" is enough to trigger profit-taking.
So yesterday's 1483 can be regarded as a recent rebound high point#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck "S&P Hits Another Record High: Liquidating to Wait for a Pullback May Be the Costliest Decision in August"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 93
Aspirin · A Data Scientist’s Perspective on Cyclical Analysis
The S&P 500 closed last night at 7,736.52 points, up 1.8%, hitting another all-time high; the year-to-date gain is about 13%. I did not chase the rally last night, nor did I liquidate my core index positions. The risk of a pullback in the second half of the year remains, but a properly sized pullback could still settle above today’s level.
BTC is still hovering around 64.4K. I’m reserving new funds for the S&P’s pullback range, leaving only two BTC contract alerts at 63.5K and 69.2K. Here’s a calculation many haven’t seriously considered.
1. A 10% drop doesn’t necessarily give you a lower buying point
Assuming the S&P rises 12% from 7,736.52 points and then pulls back 10%: 7,736.52 × 1.12 × 0.90 = 7,798.41. The pullback sounds large, but the level is still 0.8% higher than today. Even if it rises 8% and then falls 10%, the index only returns to about 7,520 points, a discount of just 2.8%.
"Waiting for a 10% pullback" is not a complete strategy. Those liquidating to wait must correctly guess the top, the timing of the pullback, and the re-entry point. Near all-time highs, there is little trapped supply, trend capital remains, and the market can easily clear out premature shorts before completing the expected correction.
2. In three midterm election years, risks heat up in late summer
In the past three U.S. midterm years, the S&P’s second-half rhythm was indeed similar: in 2014, it peaked around September 19, pulled back about 10%, and bottomed in mid-October; in 2018, weakness began around September 21, with a roughly 20% correction lasting until December; in 2022, the local high came earlier on August 16, with the low still waiting until mid-October.
The sample size is only three, and 2022 was still a bear market, so this year shouldn’t be#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck # Bitcoin Hotspot Daily (August 6, 2026)
Top 3 Most Important Things Today
1. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Transfers BTC Again, Market Questions Continued Selling
On-chain data shows wallets associated with Strategy transferred out about 1,030 BTC (approximately $66 million) again. Previously, the company confirmed selling 1,638 BTC last week (about $104.7 million, average price around $63,957) to pay preferred stock dividends and repurchase STRC, reducing current holdings to about 842,138 BTC. Michael Saylor emphasized that “Never Sell” is his personal stance; as a publicly listed company, it conducts capital management while still positioning itself as a long-term net buyer.
Why it matters: Any move by the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury amplifies market sentiment, especially when the price hovers near $64,000 and sentiment is weak. The selling scale is still small relative to total holdings, but consecutive actions have sparked discussions about a “direction change.”
Potential impact: Short-term bearish (expectation of selling pressure); medium to long-term neutral to bullish (company still holds a massive position and emphasizes accumulation ambition).
2. Coldcard Hardware Wallet Vulnerability Fallout Continues: Victim’s Long Post and Security Model Debate
One of the biggest victims (self-claimed 13-year Bitcoin player) posted a long article describing the emotional journey after all holdings were wiped out, stressing “I’m not fucking leaving,” which gained high interaction and spread. Jack Mallers contrasted Bitcoin Core’s truly open-source nature with Coldcard’s “source visible but not fully open-source” status, pointing out that with AI lowering attack costs, a review economy with ongoing vested interests is needed. The Bitcoin Red Team report has already found numerous high-risk issues.
Why it matters: It directly touches the core belief of “Not your keys, not your coins,” sparking intense debate in the Chinese community about hardware wallet trust, open-source security, and risks in the AI era, with controversy and viral potential.
Potential impact: Neutral to bearish (short-term security panic, funds flowing to exchanges); long-term bullish (forcing security upgrades and stronger review mechanisms).
3. US CLARITY Act Sprint Vote Before Recess + French Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal Reignites Debate
US senators urge a vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess; SEC commissioners and others have released optimistic signals, but there are also probabilities of decline and obstruction. In France, the UDR party’s previously proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve plan (targeting about 420,000 BTC, about 2% of total supply, budget-neutral through nuclear mining, coin confiscation, taxation, etc.) is again widely circulated on X. Although the chance of passage is low, its symbolic significance is amplified. Meanwhile, news of Russia signing related market structure legislation has also appeared.
Why it matters: Regulatory clarity is a key variable for institutional entry; the national reserve narrative easily sparks “sovereign competition” discussion hotspots in the Chinese community.
Potential impact: Bullish (if advanced, it increases certainty); short-term neutral (expectations partially priced in, progress uncertain). #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Just saw SanDisk's earnings report. Honestly, the numbers are pretty crazy—revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $39.25, compared to just $0.29 a year ago, a 135-fold increase. Data center revenue surged nearly 13 times. They also approved a $14 billion buyback plan.
Then the stock price dropped nearly 8% after hours.
Have you seen this script before? Exactly the same. Earnings blow expectations out of the water, but if the guidance slightly disappoints the market, the stock gets crushed. Market expectations have been hyped to the ceiling by AI; beating expectations is expected, but any slight disappointment is a death sentence.
That said, SanDisk holds 8 long-term contracts guaranteeing $93.9 billion in revenue, showing strong order-locking capability. Management says AI storage demand is still in the early expansion phase, NAND market size will exceed $300 billion this year and approach $500 billion next year. The long-term logic is solid.
But in the short term, the market is irrational—stock falls even when beating expectations, and falls when guidance is weak. Capital in AI hardware is in a state of fighting and retreating. Storage stocks have surged too much recently; any slight disturbance causes a stampede.
In terms of strategy, I wouldn’t catch a falling knife at this level. Wait for it to digest this wave of sentiment first. The storage sector is fine, but chasing highs and getting trapped feels really bad.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$SNDK MarsCoin Research Analysis: When Memes, Transaction Taxes, and Tokenized Equity Returns Begin to Integrate 1. Core Conclusions MarsCoin is not a traditional fundamental project and cannot be simply understood as "holding coins to receive SpaceX stock dividends." More precisely, it is a mechanized meme asset built on BNB Chain: by imposing a 3% tax on buy and sell transactions, part of the transaction value is converted into SPCXB, which is then distributed to eligible MarsCoin holders. As of August 6, 2026, MarsCoin has a total supply and circulating supply of 1 billion tokens, a market cap of about $52 million, and a 24-hour total market trading volume of about $10.7 million. The main MarsCoin/SPCXB pool liquidity is about $880,000, and the project page shows nearly 24,000 token holding addresses. MarsCoin was created on July 27, 2026, and entered Binance Alpha on July 30. Its historical data is less than two weeks old, and it is still in the stage of price discovery and mechanism stress testing. (CoinGecko) From an investment perspective, MarsCoin's strengths lie in its easy-to-understand mechanism, its dividend data can be verified on-chain, and it combines strong narratives from Binance Alpha, Flap, BNB Chain, bStocks, and SpaceX. However, its "returns" heavily depend on sustained trading volume, essentially remaining a highly volatile, highly reflexive trading asset rather than stability$ETH
The major cycle support line is still valid
The gap from February still exists and will definitely be filled.
Bullish descending triangle pattern
Targets: 2200, 2460, 2650, 2770Opened the Creator Center this morning and saw last week's reward credited — 9.88 USDT. Not much, but pretty happy about it, considering I only wrote a few articles last week. I'll try to write more this month and see if I can break $10.
Just sat down with a coffee and checked the market; BTC has already surpassed 65,000. A few days ago it was hovering around 62,000-63,000, and today it broke through directly. At 4 a.m. there was a big bullish candle that pushed it up, now around 65,015, up 1.5% in 24 hours.
Why the rise? Several things came together.
There’s progress on the US-Iran front. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said an agreement to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached in a day or two. Oil prices dropped immediately, easing inflation concerns, and risk assets all came back. But Iran is still denying direct talks, and everyone knows how Trump talks — he says one thing today and might fight tomorrow, so don’t take it too seriously.
ETF buying. BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows of $196.8 million yesterday. Institutions had been pulling out for weeks but are now coming back. In the past couple of days, ETF net inflows have exceeded $200 million.
SpaceX earnings came out last night. Revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, beating expectations. But AI is burning cash heavily; capital expenditures were $18.4 billion, far exceeding the expected $13.2 billion, causing a nearly 7% drop after hours. The AI hype is cooling off, so assets closely tied to tech stocks need to be cautious in the short term.
From a technical perspective, if 65,000 holds, we can look at 68,000-70,000; if it doesn’t hold, it will fall back to around 62,000 for support. The 30-year US Treasury yield is still at 5.168%; as long as this doesn’t come down, the ceiling for risk assets will keep pressing down.
In terms of trading, you can hold above 65,000 but don’t chase the highs. The first support is at 64,500; if that breaks, wait to consider around 62,000. The real focus will be Friday’s nonfarm payroll data.
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. An annual issuance of 5 billion DOGE sounds scary, but the math needs to be clear.
$DOGE is currently priced at $0.070, with an annual inflation rate of about 3.2%, decreasing year by year. This figure is not exaggerated when compared to macro assets—the expansion rate of the US dollar M2 has been consistently higher, and gold stock annual growth is around 1.5%-2%.
DOGE's fixed issuance ensures miners always have income and transaction fees remain cheap. As a "spendable" coin, this design is self-consistent.
But the downside is real: BTC has the "halving narrative" as a scarcity hook, DOGE does not. An additional $350 million of selling pressure annually is continuous downward fuel during bear markets.
The conclusion is not an either-or. DOGE can't be digital gold, but it can serve as digital pocket change. The real issue lies on the demand side—if platform X integrates payments and demand opens up, inflation is a reasonable cost; if no one uses it, it's a blunt knife.
Watch the $0.068 support level. If it breaks, look at $0.064; if it holds, expect sideways movement while waiting for demand-side stories. The supply-side math has been clear for thirteen years.
#DOGE #BTC #cryptocurrency #technicalanalysis #marketanalysis1. Core Event Interpretation
The strait is not completely blocked; the old route is closed and a temporary new route is opened (valid for 2-4 months), leading to a phased easing of the Middle East conflict; meanwhile, the US signals willingness to resume the agreement, reducing geopolitical panic.
2. Transmission Chain (Macro → Crypto Price)
1. Oil price expectations fall → Inflation pressure decreases
Risk of strait navigation eases, crude oil risk premium drops, market expects no inflation rebound, Fed rate cut expectations rise, and the dollar weakens.
Rate cut expectations are the biggest macro positive for cryptocurrencies; liquidity easing expectations will boost risk appetite for Bitcoin and major altcoins, making short-term sentiment generally bullish.
2. Shift in Safe-Haven Sentiment
- During extreme tension: market panic leads to selling risk assets like BTC, holding only USD and gold;
- Conflict easing: safe-haven funds flow back into risk assets, benefiting Bitcoin and altcoin rebounds.
⚠️ Key point: The new route is only a temporary solution (2-4 months), the conflict is not fully resolved, so this is a short-term positive, not a long-term reversal. If negotiations break down later, the market will quickly reverse and decline.
3. Differences Among Specific Coins
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Most affected by liquidity expectations; news can trigger short-term rallies, but sustainability depends on subsequent oil prices and Fed speeches;
2. Major altcoins (ETH, SOL, etc.): Usually have larger gains than BTC when risk appetite recovers;
3. Middle East and payment concept coins (XRP, stablecoins): Under Iran sanctions, the market may hype cross-border settlement and trade payment narratives, offering extra short-term speculative opportunities.
4. Trading Risk Warnings
1. This is an event-driven short-term market; positive news often leads to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"; prices may fall after#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck $STRC $BTC
Since Saylor said he would sell coins to buy back company stock, the initial drop of over 70 has oscillated and already returned to 94.
Although this thing originally shouldn't have fallen below 100, I believe the essence of this financing method still depends on customers' trust in the strategy. Obviously, when Bitcoin fell below 60000, plus the strategy actually did not add interest as promised when falling below 100, it caused customers' confidence in the strategy to plummet, triggering a sell-off wave that once made everyone think it would trigger a death spiral.
But actually, the strategy was taking frequent actions at that time. The original dividend distribution schedule was changed to once every two weeks, and later they said they might sell Bitcoin, a market-shaking statement, all as means to restore confidence.
At that time, I discussed with friends. Friend B wanted to bottom-fish STRC to gain both price appreciation and interest, while Friend A thought there’s no free lunch and was quite pessimistic about STRC possibly suspending distributions and accumulating dividends. Although we all still thought Bitcoin might fall below 50000.
From my perspective, when the strategy changed the dividend frequency, it already showed their attitude of valuing STRC. So I think the user sell-off causing a bloodbath drop was an overreaction dominated by BTC price. Therefore, after STRC was listed on OKX, I decisively went long around the 81-82 level, and at that time I thought 90 was an achievable target. It seemed that 1-2 days later there was a big move to 90, so I quickly closed the position and then stopped following it.
As Bitcoin consolidates again in this price range, today I see STRC has quietly returned to 94. Looking back now, I quietly made that trade myself, and Friend A was probably persuaded by Friend B not to bottom-fish.
Risk and opportunity coexist; everyone has different views on the market. Only by executing personally can you know if your ideas are right or wrong.
I wonder if Bitcoin falls below the consolidation range again, will the same drama play out again