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#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
The unexpected negative non-farm payrolls indicate a clear crack in the U.S. job market, and the Federal Reserve's policy balance is shifting from "fighting inflation" to "supporting growth." However, the real market direction is not determined by the non-farm payrolls themselves, but by the upcoming CPI. If the CPI continues to cool down, the market may start pricing in a rate cut cycle early, and BTC and tech assets could see a liquidity-driven rally; if the CPI rebounds, it could trigger a stronger dollar and a pullback in risk assets again. The current market has entered a phase where "one data point determines a wave of market movement," so the trading focus is not on guessing the direction but on waiting for data confirmation.🚨 Stop chasing the biggest green candle. Watch where the money keeps showing up.
A coin being up 20% in 24 hours doesn’t automatically make it strong.
Sometimes it just means you’re arriving after the move already happened.
That’s why I’m paying closer attention to $SOL and $HYPE.
Not simply because they’re pumping—but because there are signs that real trading demand is showing up around them.
According to the SIX Swiss Exchange’s May 2026 crypto ETP report, the reported turnover was roughly:
💰 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE Staking ETP: $16.29M
💰 21Shares Solana Staking ETP: $15.56M
Interestingly, both saw more turnover than some individual BTC and ETH products during the same period.
Does that guarantee $SOL or $HYPE will go higher?
Absolutely not.
But it does tell us something interesting:
Traditional-market investors are trading assets beyond just BTC and ETH.
And that’s worth watching.
When I’m screening hot sectors, I look at four things:
1️⃣ Is there a narrative that can last?
2️⃣ Is spot volume actually growing?
3️⃣ Is the move supported by spot demand—or mostly leverage and open interest?
4️⃣ Does the coin hold up when Bitcoin pulls back?
That last one is huge.
A truly strong asset doesn’t only outperform when $BTC is pumping.
It also gets hit less when Bitcoin starts falling.
But there’s a catch:
High volume does NOT mean low risk.
$SOL and $HYPE can still move violently, and the more crowded a trade becomes, the more dangerous it can get.
So don’t just ask:
“What’s pumping?”
Ask:
“Where is capital still willing to show up?”
That question can tell you a lot more than a 24-hour gainers list. 👀
$SOL $HYPE $BTC $ETH
#Crypto #Solana #Hyperliquid #CryptoTrading #Altcoins #DYOR
#DailyOrbit #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound $GRVT : Opportunity or Liquidity Trap?
One metric immediately stands out: $GRVT records around $316M in daily trading volume with just a $32M market cap — a volume-to-market-cap ratio of nearly 10:1.
That means the equivalent of the entire market cap changes hands almost 10 times per day. It's a sign of intense speculation, not necessarily stability.
Current snapshot:
• Price: $0.28
• 7-day performance: +12.5%
• Still ~38% below its all-time high of $0.454
• Funding rate: +0.023%, suggesting a slight long bias
The bullish case:
Strong trading activity, a live derivatives exchange, and sustained momentum could push the price higher if $0.274 support continues to hold.
The bearish case:
A $32M market cap paired with $316M in daily volume often signals speculative excess. When momentum fades, liquidity can disappear quickly, and the 38% drawdown from the $ATH shows many holders are still waiting to exit.
My takeaway: with a token where daily volume is 10x the market cap, the key question isn't "How high can it go?"—it's "Can you manage your exit?"
This is a trader's market, not a buy-and-forget investment. Tight risk management matters.
What's your view on $GRVT—long-term opportunity or just another high-volume speculative trade?
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs 2026 8.8 Personal Market Analysis After Non-Farm Payrolls🔥🔥
Non-farm payrolls opened a short-term rebound window for the market, but altcoins belong to thematic speculation under the large-cap dividend, not a full bull market.
The main focus is on the AA+AI-Agent track, with coins represented by BICO seeing huge short-term gains and prominent overbought risks.
Remember: As long as the large-cap market doesn't collapse, themes continue; if the large-cap market collapses, altcoins will drop much more sharply than BTC. Do not blindly chase small-cap coins that have already surged.
Everyone, advance steadily $BTC $SNDK $BICO
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 $GRVT : Opportunity or Liquidity Trap?
One metric immediately stands out: $GRVT records around $316M in daily trading volume with just a $32M market cap — a volume-to-market-cap ratio of nearly 10:1.
That means the equivalent of the entire market cap changes hands almost 10 times per day. It's a sign of intense speculation, not necessarily stability.
Current snapshot:
• Price: $0.28
• 7-day performance: +12.5%
• Still ~38% below its all-time high of $0.454
• Funding rate: +0.023%, suggesting a slight long bias
The bullish case:
Strong trading activity, a live derivatives exchange, and sustained momentum could push the price higher if $0.274 support continues to hold.
The bearish case:
A $32M market cap paired with $316M in daily volume often signals speculative excess. When momentum fades, liquidity can disappear quickly, and the 38% drawdown from the $ATH shows many holders are still waiting to exit.
My takeaway: with a token where daily volume is 10x the market cap, the key question isn't "How high can it go?"—it's "Can you manage your exit?"
This is a trader's market, not a buy-and-forget investment. Tight risk management matters.
What's your view on $GRVT—long-term opportunity or just another high-volume speculative trade?
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs $GRVT : Opportunity or Liquidity Trap?
One metric immediately stands out: $GRVT records around $316M in daily trading volume with just a $32M market cap — a volume-to-market-cap ratio of nearly 10:1.
That means the equivalent of the entire market cap changes hands almost 10 times per day. It's a sign of intense speculation, not necessarily stability.
Current snapshot:
• Price: $0.28
• 7-day performance: +12.5%
• Still ~38% below its all-time high of $0.454
• Funding rate: +0.023%, suggesting a slight long bias
The bullish case:
Strong trading activity, a live derivatives exchange, and sustained momentum could push the price higher if $0.274 support continues to hold.
The bearish case:
A $32M market cap paired with $316M in daily volume often signals speculative excess. When momentum fades, liquidity can disappear quickly, and the 38% drawdown from the $ATH shows many holders are still waiting to exit.
My takeaway: with a token where daily volume is 10x the market cap, the key question isn't "How high can it go?"—it's "Can you manage your exit?"
This is a trader's market, not a buy-and-forget investment. Tight risk management matters.
What's your view on $GRVT—long-term opportunity or just another high-volume speculative trade?
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs New changes are emerging in the macro environment, but BTC still has not given a clear direction. 🏦 Fed expectations loosened: US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by about 23,000, significantly below the previous market expectation of around 80,000, with an unemployment rate of around 4.1%. After the data was released, market bets on further rate hikes in September noticeably declined. This is positive for risk assets in the short term, but it also means the market will pay more attention to inflation data and Fed officials' statements. 🛢️ Crude Oil remains an inflationary variable. Although oil prices have recently retreated, the energy market still faces significant event risks. If oil prices rise rapidly again, it could once again fuel market concerns about inflation. ₿ BTC: Range continues to contract. Currently, BTC is oscillating roughly around the $63.2K–$67.4K range. Both trading volume and actual volatility remain relatively low. This state usually doesn't last forever—what really matters is whether there is volume following after the breakout. 📊 Relative strength observation: ETH > BTC > SOL ETH structures are currently relatively more resilient; BTC remains the directional anchor for the entire market; SOL's short-term performance is relatively weak and needs to wait for renewed capital attention. 🎯 My trading observation zone • BTC: $62.8K–$63.5K Watch support, $66.8K–$68K watch for resistance • ETH: Structure after pullback still deserves attention • SOL: If the rebound fails to break through🤗 Extra: The new US bill (CLARITY) says the president can't trade crypto personally while in office; it must be isolated.
Trump says he will put his cryptocurrency into a blind trust, managed by his kids, not him.
Let's translate what this old man means.
His family runs a crypto company called $WLFI, issued $WLFI tokens, $$TRUMP Meme tokens, and also created the stablecoin $USD1. The Trump family holds 75% of the shares in these tokens and platforms. But the new US bill CLARITY says: the president can't trade crypto personally; it must be isolated.
Trump played a trick and said okay, I'll comply with the law, put the tokens into a blind trust, which means appointing a trustee. I won't oversee daily trading; the kids (his three sons) will continue managing it. When he leaves office on January 20, 2029, the restrictions automatically lift, and then they can do as they please.
Does this matter to the $BTC and $ETH we care most about? Absolutely.
Don't be fooled by his words saying he doesn't care about those assets; $BTC and $ETH are tightly linked to his family on both ends.
The first end is the White House: In March 2025, he signed a strategic Bitcoin reserve, locking 200,000 seized $BTC into the Treasury without selling. This isn't his personal stash; it's national policy. But who signed it? Him. In future market discussions about whether $BTC has national credit backing, this chapter must mention Trump.
The second end is the family platform: $WLFI's treasury has real $BTC and $ETH as base holdings. The $USD1 stablecoin was first issued on the $ETH chain, later expanding to $BNB and $Solana. Trump himself may not hold $BTC in his wallet, but his family's 75% stake indirectly rides on $BTC/$ETH price movements—the money managed by his kids is mainly these two.
So: blind trust + kids managing translates to
The president's name is removed, but 200,000 $BTC are locked by the White House, $ETH powers his family platform, and the money still belongs to the Trump family. $BICO I'm holding this BICO with trembling hands, the market cap is small and volatility is high, but there should be a ceiling; the key is where the stability will be pulled to, so let's wait and see first.
BICO
Market Overview
BICO belongs to the Account Abstraction AA + AI Agent sector. This round started from the bottom near 0.011, surged to a high of 0.0452 USDT within 24 hours, experienced a sharp spike and pullback during the session, closed around 0.039, with trading volume sharply expanding and turnover rate extremely high. The daily RSI has entered a severe overbought zone, contract open interest has risen significantly, and leveraged funds have poured in.
This is a rebound driven by overselling + sector theme speculation, not a fundamental major change.
✅ Upward Drivers
1. AA Account Abstraction + AI Agent narrative heating up (core)
ERC‑4337 account abstraction popularity is recovering. Biconomy is a veteran infrastructure provider offering gasless and batch transactions, compatible with AI smart agent on-chain interactions. Small market cap sector tokens are prioritized for capital rotation and speculation.
2. All tokens fully unlocked, no new unlocking selling pressure
1 billion tokens have been fully released, with no team or investor unlocking dumps ahead; however, early institutions and whales hold a high proportion and can sell anytime without lock-up constraints.
3. Deep oversold, small market cap with huge elasticity
The historical high was $21, long-term bottomed at 0.01–0.02 range, total market cap only tens of millions of USD. A small amount of capital can drive large price increases, while short positions accumulate, and upward moves are accompanied by short covering that boosts the rally.
4. Real on-chain business implementation
Connected to hundreds of DApps, with a considerable number of smart account deployments. Not a pure air Meme coin, it has a narrative basis for speculation; however, the token lacks fee dividends, burn, or other value capture mechanisms, and business revenue cannot be transmitted to token price, so price is entirely driven by capital sentiment.
🔻 Core Risks (very critical)
1. Severe short-term overbought, high RSI, many short-term profit takers, risk of rapid dump after spike, whales transferring to exchanges at highs is the biggest hidden danger.
2. Intense sector competition, stronger rivals like Safe, Alchemy, BICO is not the absolute leader in the sector, funds can quickly exit after hype fades.
3. Highly correlated with overall market risk appetite: small-cap beta is very high. If tonight's non-farm payroll data is hawkish, BTC and ETH will pull back, and BICO's correction will be much larger than mainstream coins.
4. Rapid expansion of contract open interest, during volatile markets prone to cascading liquidations, amplifying price swings.
📌 Key Price Levels
• Short-term first support: 0.033–0.034 USDT
This round's bull defense line; if volume breaks down, it indicates short-term upward momentum exhaustion and likely deep retracement.
• Second support: 0.027–0.029 USDT, the origin point of this rally; breaking below signals the end of this rebound.
• First resistance: 0.044–0.046 USDT (today's high), needs volume and stable hold to open further upside.
• Strong resistance: 0.052–0.055 USDT, dense area of previous trapped positions, heavy selling pressure.
Three scenario simulations (combined with non-farm data)
1. ✅ Bullish scenario: dovish non-farm data, rising market risk appetite, holding 0.033 support, challenging 0.044–0.046 resistance; premise: volume sustains, no large whale transfers to exchanges.
2. ⚖️ Neutral scenario (higher probability): wide-range high-level consolidation, oscillating between 0.029–0.046, digesting overbought indicators over time.
3. 🔻 Bearish scenario: hawkish non-farm data, market risk-off, volume break below 0.033, rapid retest near 0.027, small caps will fall sharply.
Key monitoring signals
1. Volume: rising volume on upswings and shrinking volume on pullbacks sustain the trend; a large-volume long red candle indicates capital flight.
2. Large on-chain transfers: whales moving tokens to exchanges indicate potential selling.
3. BTC/ETH market: BICO is a highly elastic small cap; if the market crashes, it is unlikely to remain unaffected.
Summary:
BICO is an oversold rebound driven by sector narrative, with product implementation but lacking token valuation anchors. It is severely overbought short-term and not suitable for chasing highs; #Gold breaks above $4300, is the capital betting on rate cuts or safe haven?
$XAU Gold has surged wildly, hitting $4339 yesterday, with a weekly gain of over 7%. Many are already discussing whether gold has entered a new super cycle?
I think this gold rally is not just a simple technical breakout, but more like a global capital process of rediscovering safe assets.
Why do I say this?
First, U.S. employment data has clearly cooled down, and the market is starting to trade on expectations of a Fed pivot. Weaker employment means less pressure for rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar and real interest rates, and gold’s favorite environment is low interest rates + weak dollar.
Second, global market uncertainty remains very high. Geopolitical risks, energy prices, and fiscal pressures are all causing capital to reallocate into safe-haven assets. What gold buyers are really buying is not just a candlestick, but concerns about future monetary credit and economic cycles.
Third, from a capital perspective, long positions in gold are rising; the market is not retail chasing the rally, but institutional funds repositioning.
However, I believe the current gold rally should not be simply understood as a mindless bull market. After a short-term continuous surge, sentiment is already overheated, and we need to watch for changes in Fed policy and whether inflation data continues to cooperate.
In contrast, Bitcoin has recently underperformed gold.
Both are safe-haven assets, but gold has broken a nearly two-month high, while $BTC has not formed an effective breakout. The capital choice is very clear: when the market panics and risk appetite declines, the first choice of capital remains gold, not crypto assets.
This indicates that BTC has not yet fully gained traditional capital’s safe-haven recognition and is still more of a risk asset.
I think this gold rally may signal the start of a global capital defense mode, and for BTC to regain strength, we need to see real liquidity return and market risk appetite improve again. In Circle's latest quarterly report, the USDC circulation reached approximately $73.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19%; quarterly revenue was about $700 million.
The numbers look good, but what really matters is not the growth, but how Circle actually makes money.
The answer is simple:
Users exchange dollars for USDC, which is equivalent to handing over interest-free money to Circle.
Circle then invests the reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and money market funds, and the interest generated constitutes the main income.
In the last quarter, of Circle's approximately $694 million revenue, $653 million came from reserve yields, accounting for over 90%.
So today's Circle is less a pure crypto tech company and more a "digital dollar bank" disguised in blockchain attire.
This model is good but has obvious weaknesses:
The larger the USDC scale, the more they earn;
But when interest rates fall, the income generated per dollar of reserves decreases;
Distribution channels like Coinbase also take a share of the earnings.
This also explains why Circle is not content with just issuing USDC but is building Arc, payment networks, and enterprise services.
Because just issuing stablecoins essentially means making money from interest rate cycles.
Only by controlling issuance, distribution, and settlement networks can Circle upgrade from a "U.S. Treasury interest business" to a true internet financial infrastructure.
The biggest competition for stablecoins going forward is not who deploys more chains.
It is about who gets the interest, who controls the entry points, and who holds the settlement rights after the dollar goes on-chain.
This is the truly valuable part of the stablecoin war. After SanDisk's latest earnings report, Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating and set a target price of $2,500, corresponding to about 85% potential upside. The core viewpoint of this report is very direct: the market underestimates SanDisk's profitability sustainability, and AI is changing the old cycle logic of the storage industry. The traditional NAND flash industry has always been a highly cyclical sector. Overcapacity leads to price cuts and losses; tight capacity leads to huge profits—a cycle of back-and-forth. But now the variable has emerged: large-scale expansion of AI data centers, explosive demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, and major companies signing long-term supply price lock-up agreements. Long-term contracts lock in volume and price, erasing some of the sharp price surges and falls, and weakening cyclical fluctuations. In terms of financial estimates, Bank of America forecasts SanDisk's EPS for fiscal year 2027 to reach $233.85. Currently, the forward P/E ratio is only 6 times, which is a significant valuation discount compared to its peer Micron's 12 times. Institutions believe that since SanDisk's valuation should also recover from the AI storage wave, this is the underlying basis for setting a high target price. However, here we should objectively view institutional target prices and not assume the result will be delivered. First, the cyclical undertone of the storage industry has not completely disappeared. AI demand is incremental, but demand on the consumer electronics side remains weak. If subsequent AI capital expenditures fall short of expectations, NAND prices will come under pressure again. Long-term supply agreements can buffer volatility but cannot completely isolate downside risk. Second, the 85% upside is based on the dual assumption of 2027 performance realization and valuation recovery, with a long timeframe and multiple price fluctuations in between. Institutional research reports are mostly about pushingThe rebound feels like getting candy; don't mistake a reversal for a free lunch. $GLD +2.26% is still pushing higher, indicating that smart money hasn't fully withdrawn from safe-haven positions—talking risk-on while holding gold, this kind of fearful yet greedy market is the most tempting and the easiest to trap people.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,848 +1.01% $ETH 1,914 +0.74%
$QQQ +1.17% $SPY +0.61% $IBIT +0.85%
$DXY -0.36% $GLD +2.26%
The valuation hit on U.S. Treasuries and the Fed isn't just background noise; it's temporarily overshadowed by the AI narrative. $QQQ is hanging on solely by the semiconductor sector, hot money is pouring aggressively into $SPCX +17.5%, $BICO +36.6% is also rallying, but $SNDK -4.7% has already shown signs of divergence—AI is not flourishing everywhere but is instead concentrated on betting on the top performers.
$BTC is much stronger than $ETH, with capital still flowing into the strongest consensus; $ETH can't keep up, indicating that the money truly willing to chase highs hasn't loosened up.
$IBIT +0.85% can't outperform $BTC spot's +1.01%; if ETF demand softens, it punctures the narrative of "institutions are buying aggressively," meaning the spot market foundation isn't as solid as it seems.
$DXY -0.36% is giving risk assets some breathing room, but don't assume the dollar has collapsed; as long as it doesn't break key levels, it can snap back sharply.
$GLD rising instead of falling means some funds are still clinging to safe havens; until this money exits, the rebound in risk assets will be discounted.
Tonight's U.S. market open will focus on whether real money continues to buy or if the early rush fades. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction for the week. I'll be watching quietly.
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Time: August 8, 2026, 5:54
---
One-sentence conclusion: The market is likely to peak in the short term, with increased risk of a pullback. ETH is more dangerous than BTC.
Three sharpest contradictions:
1. Retail investors are crazy (contrarian indicator)
The Binance long-short ratio for ETH is as high as 2.068, meaning the number of longs is more than twice the shorts. This is the classic top signal—too many bulls, and the main players may suddenly turn and dump.
2. Smart money is leaving
Large on-chain whale transfers show strong bearish selling pressure. ETFs have continuous net outflows, institutions are withdrawing. On Hyperliquid, smart money (big whales) is bearish, retail is bullish, creating a dangerous divergence.
3. The dealer’s target is clear
The maximum pain point for options on August 28 is BTC at 63000, ETH at 1850. Before expiration, prices tend to be magnetized toward these points, both below current prices, indicating downside.
Specific responses:
· ETH is the most dangerous: current price 1912, strong resistance at 1920-1938. If it breaks below the 1900 round number, it may accelerate down to 1850. Avoid competing with retail on the long side.
· BTC is relatively resilient: technically still bullish on the 4-hour level. Watch support at 64300-64500 on pullbacks; if it holds, it’s a better entry point. Exit and wait if it breaks below 64200.
· Short-term direction: biased toward a pullback. Shorts have been heavily flushed out, reducing short-squeeze momentum on rebounds, but accumulating new space to kill longs.
---
One-sentence summary: Retail is partying, smart money is retreating, and the dealer’s target price is lower above. Chasing longs now, especially ETH, is extremely risky. Be patient and wait for a pullback; the opportunity will be better. Those who once firmly said there would be a rate hike in September might end up being proven wrong……
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
┈➤ Nonfarm payroll data does not support a rate hike
The layoff trend was mentioned at the end of last month. The initial July nonfarm payroll data was indeed negative.
The July labor force participation rate was 61.4%, lower than expected and the previous value; some people probably gave up looking for work because they thought they couldn't find a job.
Therefore, the negative nonfarm employment data combined with the decline in labor force participation both point to one conclusion — the U.S. job market may be starting to weaken.
┈➤ Wage data does not necessitate a rate hike
Both the annual and monthly wage growth rates were below expectations and previous values. Wages are an important component of goods and services; slower wage growth helps slow down CPI growth.
┈➤ U.S. Treasury and geopolitical factors both favor no rate hike in September
No need to say much about U.S. Treasuries; Brother Feng has analyzed this several times. Rate hikes can easily cause a vicious cycle for U.S. Treasuries.
On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman are working on a Strait co-management agreement. If reached, the Strait might temporarily allow passage.
┈➤ Final notes
Currently, CME interest rate futures show a 44.1% probability of a rate hike in September, and PM's probability for a September hike is only 36%.
However, CME interest rate futures show the probability of a rate hike in October is over 50%. So whether there will be a hike in September, and whether it will be hawkish or dovish, remains very critical.
Therefore, August, which has no FOMC meeting, might be a relatively good vacuum period unless U.S.-Iran relations become tense again #Gold breaks above $4300, is the capital betting on rate cuts or seeking safe haven?
Recently, gold has been very strong, with $XAU spot gold once breaking through $4300/oz, rising more than 7% this week.
Many people's first reaction is:
"Is the rate cut expectation coming?" But I think this round of gold rally may not be just a simple rate cut trade.
There are actually several factors overlapping behind it:
On one hand, weaker US non-farm payroll data and a retreating dollar have led the market to raise expectations for future easing policies;
On the other hand, continuous gold purchases by global central banks and increased geopolitical risks have also caused capital to start reallocating to safe-haven assets.
So now the gold rally looks more like a joint push from rate cut expectations + safe-haven demand.
This also makes me think of $BTC
Many people like to call BTC "digital gold," but in the short term, the logic of the two is not exactly the same.
Gold is more of a safe-haven asset, while BTC is still influenced by liquidity and risk appetite.
If the Fed confirms entering a rate cut cycle in the future and liquidity improves, I believe BTC may catch up.
But if the market continues to worry about the economy and geopolitical risks, then gold may still occupy the favored position for capital.
For me, I won't simply chase the rally in gold or BTC now.
More importantly, the judgment is:
Is this rally really capital seeking safety, or the start of a new liquidity cycle?
If it's just safe-haven demand, gold may continue to be strong; if it's the start of a rate cut cycle, then risk assets may see greater opportunities. The market never trades on just one factor.
What really deserves attention now is how the Fed will act next after the gold rally.📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Update (August 9)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the short sellers...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $538.59 $538.59 $0
4 hours $7,002.09 $6,954.47 $47.62
12 hours $12,700 $12,000 $710.52
24 hours $66,800 $64,000 $2,776.39
From the $LAB liquidation data, long liquidations dominate short liquidations in the 1-hour window, with shorts at zero, indicating a flash crash against longs at the start; at 4 hours, the long advantage sharply expands, longs are 146 times shorts, signaling a full-scale long liquidation; at 12 hours, longs still lead by about 17 times, showing long liquidation throughout short and mid cycles; at 24 hours, long liquidations soar to $64,000, 23 times shorts, indicating the short sellers have completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on LAB—short, mid, and long-term longs were comprehensively targeted and liquidated, while shorts’ limited resistance was futile, with total liquidations exceeding $66,000. Everyone should manage positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 9
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously playing out brutal "expectation gaps" across three different battlefields—ambiguous data, explosive earnings, and a flood of unlocks—all moving beyond expectations.
📉 Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Negative: CPI Becomes Key to Rate Hikes
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, sharply missing market expectations of an increase between 50,000 and 140,000. May and June job gains were revised down by a total of 103,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
This contradictory "job losses with falling unemployment" report makes the Fed’s September rate hike outlook more uncertain. "New Fed Communications" Timiraos bluntly said: "The July jobs report will be a confusing report for the Fed." Hawks can cite the falling unemployment rate to support hikes, while doves can point to job losses to argue for a pause.
The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a September hike has dropped from 57% before the report to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment but the July CPI released on August 12. If inflation is moderate, the Fed has reason to hold rates steady; if strong, more policymakers will lean toward hikes.
💾 Storage Stocks Fall After Earnings: The Bigger the Beat, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a historic earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44%. However, SanDisk plunged over 11% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped over 18%.
The culprit for the plunge was a less optimistic guidance—SanDisk’s mid-point revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Given SanDisk’s over 460% gain this year, the market had already priced in the good news, so the muted future guidance was interpreted negatively.
Is the AI memory bull market still intact? Opinions diverge greatly. Bulls believe AI demand is very persistent, with storage supply shortages lasting at least until 2027. Morgan Stanley’s Shawn Kim’s latest report says the most severe storage correction is near its end, maintaining a long-term bullish view on Samsung and SK Hynix. The cautious side points out memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are unlikely to last forever. Bernstein analysts bluntly say storage chips are becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The supercycle’s long-term logic remains intact, but valuations have outpaced fundamentals—any flaw will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX Surges After Unlock: A Classic Case of "Bad News Fully Priced"
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion, doubling the float. The market widely expected a massive sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose—up 6% on the unlock day, then another 16% the next day, a two-day total gain of about 23%, with market cap surging over $327 billion.
The rebound logic is clear: the 14% plunge after earnings had already released some pressure; SpaceX has regularly repurchased shares internally over the past decade, with most insiders having partially cashed out; shorts suffered a counterattack—previously, shorts had paper gains exceeding $9 billion, forced to cover after unlock, creating buying pressure. Over 250 million shares remain shorted; if the stock continues rising, short covering could further boost the price.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: the confusing nonfarm employment signals tilt the September rate hike scale toward CPI—the data itself is ambiguous, but the market direction is being redefined by inflation; SanDisk’s 372% growth followed by a plunge proves storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals—the market rewards "spending efficiency" rather than "spending scale"; SpaceX’s surge on unlock day illustrates the classic "bad news fully priced" scenario. When three markets simultaneously move beyond expectations, the first week of August 2026 is witnessing the most intense handover of pricing power. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Last night, as soon as the US July nonfarm payrolls were released, the market exploded.
Actual employment decreased by 23,000, while the market had originally expected an increase of 80,000. After such a huge gap in expectations, many rushed in to go long on Bitcoin. The logic was simple: no chance of a rate hike, liquidity will loosen, just go for it.
Bitcoin did rally, reaching a high above $65,300.
Unfortunately, the good times didn’t last long; after the surge, it quickly fell back, currently around $64,800.
The data was an epic surprise, but the rebound in the coin price was quite limited. Compared to the impact of the data, this increase looks very weak. The market has calmed down and started to scrutinize the issues behind this nonfarm payroll report.
This data deviation is extremely exaggerated.
July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, missing expectations by over 100,000. Bloomberg’s calculations show this deviation reached 5 standard deviations, which is a very rare statistical anomaly, outside the normal error range. This is the third worst monthly employment performance since 2020 and the worst since February this year.
What’s more, the previous months’ figures were sharply revised downwards: May and June combined were cut by 103,000.
May was revised down from 129,000 to 63,000, June from 57,000 to 20,000. After revisions, looking back over the past 12 months, nonfarm payrolls have averaged only 34,000 new jobs per month.
This can no longer be called a soft landing; it looks more like a sign of the economy slamming on the brakes.
There is also a contradictory point here: employment worsened, but the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%.
The reason is that the two data sets come from different sources. Nonfarm employment is from business surveys, while the unemployment rate comes from household surveys; the samples and statistical logic are completely separate.
This time, the unemployment rate fell not because more people found jobs, but because the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest since early 2021, with 264,000 people exiting the labor market. Fewer people looking for work means the denominator in the unemployment rate calculation shrinks, naturally lowering the unemployment rate.
The continuous large downward revisions to previous months’ data send a strong signal.
It means the official side admits that the recent strength in the labor market was overestimated. Sample adjustments and changes in statistical methods mean much of the employment resilience previously seen was an illusion created by the numbers.
For the crypto market, there are short-term and medium-term perspectives.
Short-term, it’s definitely positive.
CME interest rate futures show the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 67% a week ago to 44%. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell about 5 basis points, and the dollar index dropped nearly 30 points. Risk appetite rose, Bitcoin surged past 65,300, and the market is now betting on no more rate hikes.
But the medium-term risk is right in front of us.
If employment continues to deteriorate, market logic will switch: from trading "pause on rate hikes" to trading "economic recession." Once the market prices in recession, it’s no longer positive for risk assets but negative.
Moreover, the CPI report is coming next week, which is the real test.
Federal Reserve officials have already made their stance clear: Waller bluntly said if inflation data heats up, he would support a September rate hike; Cook also stated he would support a hike if inflation doesn’t improve; Kashkari was even more direct, saying a hike should happen now to avoid forced aggressive hikes later.
Nonfarm payrolls can push down rate hike expectations, but an unexpectedly high CPI can bring those expectations right back up at any time.
The market is currently immersed in a "no rate hike" scenario, but it may soon face another situation: the economy is clearly weakening, inflation won’t come down, and the Fed can’t cut rates.
These two scenarios have completely different outcomes for Bitcoin. The former boosts the market, while the latter easily misleads investors into thinking it’s the bottom, only to get caught halfway into a recession.
Next comes a dilemma: employment data tells the Fed to stop tightening, but inflation data tells the Fed it can’t ease. The Fed is caught in the middle, and which side it leans toward depends on next week’s CPI results.$WLD WLDUSDT
● Current price: 0.3074 USDT (+0.35%)
● Trend analysis: Bottom consolidation, lacking vitality.
● While surrounding coins fluctuate wildly, WLD only slightly rose by 0.35%, showing extremely flat performance. This indicates it has neither selling pressure (can't fall) nor buying interest (can't rise).
● It is in a phase forgotten by the market, with extremely low capital utilization.
● Operation suggestion: Waste of time, recommend switching positions.
● Strategy: Unless you are doing long-term dollar-cost averaging, short-term trading should avoid this weaving machine market. #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
The S&P 500 closed last night at 7787 points, just 2.7% shy of 8000. It dropped nearly 6% in July, then rose almost 4% in the first week of August. This pattern is exactly like last August — a sharp drop followed by a violent rebound.
Kalshi traders' odds are straightforward: a 66% chance of reaching 8000 by year-end, and 33% for 8200. The bullish sentiment in the market is unanimous — Fundstrat's Tom Lee says 7900 to 8000 is expected in August; Morgan Stanley's Wilson targets 8000 by year-end; Goldman Sachs also sets 8000 as the goal. Citi is even more aggressive, calling for 8100.
The strong rally is driven by three core factors. First, expectations for US-Iran negotiations, with oil prices dropping from 100 to below 80, easing inflation pressure and boosting bets on Fed rate cuts. Second, earnings season is solid, with S&P 500 constituent earnings growth hitting 29%, 86% of companies beating expectations, and Microsoft and Amazon proving AI investments were worthwhile. Third, the market has cleaned up its chips; the July plunge in memory stocks saw Goldman Sachs' momentum portfolio drop 35%, signaling deleveraging is nearing its end.
However, there are some signals that feel off at this level.
Memory stocks have explosive earnings but falling prices — SanDisk reported revenue of 8.96 billion exceeding expectations but fell 8% after hours. The market is pricing in a "cycle peak," not "earnings quality." Also, the S&P 500's gains are concentrated in AI and tech, while other sectors lag behind. Existing funds are just rotating between sectors, not new capital flooding in.
Whether 8000 is achievable depends on two things: whether the US-Iran deal truly materializes or stalls again, and whether next week's CPI data is favorable. I won't go all in or stay completely out at this point. I'll keep some cash on hand and wait for CPI results and clarity on the deal. The direction is likely upward, but the pace may still see a decent pullback. $XSPY $SPY $QQQ The White House has finally begun to increase investment in key minerals and materials sectors, which is a "pleasant surprise" policy move that helps promote the construction of critical supply chains in the United States.
Among publicly listed companies, FEAM received $8 million in funding support, mainly for boron material development; HREE received $4.8 million in funding, focusing on magnetic rare earth materials. In addition, the U.S. government has also invested in private enterprises, including $150 million invested in Niron Magnetics and $85 million in Standard Bauxite.
Serenity believes that for the U.S. government, these funding amounts are just "pocket change," but they can leverage a large number of downstream industrial applications and are significant for reducing risks in the critical materials supply chain.
However, he stated that the current scale of investment is still insufficient to fully resolve supply chain issues, and further funding support is needed in the future to accelerate the implementation of key mineral projects and reduce risks in the industrial chain development.
Serenity emphasized that he personally does not hold shares in the aforementioned companies and only supports this policy direction. $BTC 🚨 Stop chasing the biggest green candle. Watch where the money keeps showing up.
A coin being up 20% in 24 hours doesn’t automatically make it strong.
Sometimes it just means you’re arriving after the move already happened.
That’s why I’m paying closer attention to $SOL and $HYPE.
Not simply because they’re pumping—but because there are signs that real trading demand is showing up around them.
According to the SIX Swiss Exchange’s May 2026 crypto ETP report, the reported turnover was roughly:
💰 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE Staking ETP: $16.29M
💰 21Shares Solana Staking ETP: $15.56M
Interestingly, both saw more turnover than some individual BTC and ETH products during the same period.
Does that guarantee $SOL or $HYPE will go higher?
Absolutely not.
But it does tell us something interesting:
Traditional-market investors are trading assets beyond just BTC and ETH.
And that’s worth watching.
When I’m screening hot sectors, I look at four things:
1️⃣ Is there a narrative that can last?
2️⃣ Is spot volume actually growing?
3️⃣ Is the move supported by spot demand—or mostly leverage and open interest?
4️⃣ Does the coin hold up when Bitcoin pulls back?
That last one is huge.
A truly strong asset doesn’t only outperform when $BTC is pumping.
It also gets hit less when Bitcoin starts falling.
But there’s a catch:
High volume does NOT mean low risk.
$SOL and $HYPE can still move violently, and the more crowded a trade becomes, the more dangerous it can get.
So don’t just ask:
“What’s pumping?”
Ask:
“Where is capital still willing to show up?”
That question can tell you a lot more than a 24-hour gainers list. 👀
$SOL $HYPE $BTC $ETH
#Crypto #Solana #Hyperliquid #CryptoTrading #Altcoins #DYOR
#DailyOrbit #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🔥Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, but the market isn't celebrating.
Last night, the data showed a negative growth of 23,000 in new jobs, with the previous figure of 57,000 revised down to 20,000. What does this mean? Over the past 12 months, the US has added an average of only 34,000 jobs per month, and in the second half of the year, it even averaged a loss of 8,000 jobs per month. The employment engine has basically stalled.
Logically, with such poor employment, the market should be partying. Expectations for rate cuts would soar, and risk assets would take off. But look at BTC, still hovering around 64,000, not jumping much. Why?
Because the Fed's logic has changed.
Previously, poor employment meant rate cuts, but not anymore. The folks at the Fed are hawkish lately, constantly saying that if inflation can't be controlled, they will raise rates. And with employment collapsing, the market is starting to worry about another issue—stagflation.
What is stagflation? The economy goes down while prices soar. Last night, Brent crude oil rose 3.8%, conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, and oil prices are tightly stretched. If next week's CPI is pushed up by energy prices, the Fed will be completely stuck. Rate cuts? Inflation isn't dead yet. Rate hikes? Employment has already collapsed. It's a dilemma.
So CPI has become the only lifeline, and also the last straw that could break the camel's back.
For the crypto world, this is not a simple good-or-bad binary.
If CPI is below expectations, it means inflation is truly coming down, and poor employment becomes a legitimate reason for rate cuts. Then BTC might ride the momentum and test the 68,000 resistance level.
But if CPI exceeds expectations, especially if energy and core services remain sticky, then the nightmare of "stagflation" will officially unfold. At that point, forget rate cuts; the market will reprice for rate hikes. Tech stocks will be hit first, and BTC, as the "Tech Stock Pro Max," won't escape the drop.
You need to understand one thing.
BTC and gold have completely decoupled now. Gold rises on safe-haven demand and de-dollarization, while BTC rises based on tech stock performance. Gold held steady above 4,200 last night, but BTC shook along with the Nasdaq. These two are no longer on the same path.
In terms of trading, don't make moves in the next few days.
Nonfarm payrolls are out, and all market attention will focus on next Tuesday's CPI. Before that, any large positions are a gamble. Hold your spot positions, but don't add more. Contracts especially need to be stable; spikes during this data vacuum are normal.
My advice is simple:
Wait.
Wait for the CPI to come out and see whether it's "poor employment forcing rate cuts" or "high inflation killing easing." Once the direction is clear, then act. The market never lacks opportunities, it lacks certainty.
Do you think next week's CPI will exceed expectations? Let's discuss in the comments.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 Sisters, what's going on with $BICO? Why is it so strong?
It's even stronger than my ex-boyfriend on Viagra, I can't handle it.
I have no focus at work today, I'm stuck again. 😭
Yesterday I saw BICO at the top of the gainers list, so I casually opened a short position.
I thought, "It’s risen so much, it must correct soon," but today I got stuck in the position.
I searched around for information, no major positive news, no new announcements, no news at all.
Circulating supply is 100%, fully unlocked, no unlocking pressure, no team lock-up waiting to dump.
So what exactly is driving this surge?
Simply put, it's the whales exploiting low liquidity to violently pump the price, triggering a cascade of short liquidations, pumping it all the way up until you dare not short anymore.
On-chain discussion volume soared from an average of 91 posts per day to 30,000 posts; price came first, then the stories.
People only started making up reasons after the price rose. The 24-hour high today hit 0.06392, up 391% in 7 days.
On the chart, 0.06392 is today's peak, and it has started to pull back, showing divergence at the top.
RSI has long been overbought, funding rate is -0.16%, shorts are still being squeezed.
With this kind of rise, once sentiment cools off, the fall will be just as fast.
I've been watching my account for a long time, not sure if I should add to my short position.
Sisters, what should I do with this trade? Who can tell me when to add to my position? 😭
$BTC
$ETH
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound #CLARITY vote postponed to September, regulatory window delayed
The CLARITY vote has been pushed to September, which is not negative news but rather a continuation of “uncertainty” absence.
Just saw Senate Majority Leader Thune confirm: The "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act) will not be voted on before the August recess and will be queued after reconvening on September 14.
Many automatically translate this as “regulatory benefits delayed = short-term negative,” but I think it’s not that simple.
Here are some key facts:
• The House passed it long ago (294-134), the Senate Banking Committee passed it on May 15, but it still needs 60 votes in the full Senate to overcome filibuster; Republicans alone don’t have enough and must pull in Democrats.
• Democrats are not blocking “whether to regulate,” but rather ethics clauses for officials holding crypto (Trump family crypto interests are a focus), whether stablecoins can pay interest, and how to protect small banks.
• On Polymarket, the probability of the law passing by 2026 dropped from over 80% at the start of the year to about 27%, and institutional funds remain on hold.
• After returning in September, there is only about a 3-week clean window before government funding battles and midterm elections immediately follow.
My judgment:
This delay is not a bombshell but a hanging sword.
BTC’s reaction that day was muted (hovering around 64k), indicating the market had already priced in “no August passage.” But “delay” ≠ “implementation.” What institutions fear most is not strict regulation but that boundaries remain undefined—how tokens are divided between SEC/CFTC, whether stablecoins can pay interest, and custody boundaries—all must wait until September or even later.
Short term: Institutional incremental funds will not rush in before the September vote; the market is more likely to range trade with news-driven spikes.
Medium to long term: If it passes in September = compliance premium rally starts; if blocked again in September = US domestic projects continue moving to EU/Dubai/Singapore, and SEC fills gaps with administrative rules.
Here’s how I trade:
• Don’t preemptively bet on “September passage” to heavily load altcoin regulatory concepts.
• Main positions in BTC/ETH trade within ranges; don’t add unless strong resistance breaks.
• List CLARITY, stablecoin legislation, and SEC enforcement actions on the same event calendar; only a cloture motion counts as a real signal.
What do you think?
Will this vote really pass in September, or is it just another round of “imminent implementation” narrative exhaustion? Here's a painful observation that those in the know will understand. This round of the US stock market has AI, SpaceX, and a wave of new narratives like optical communication pouring in money one after another. Gold has de-dollarization and safe-haven appeal. But crypto—count for yourself—what truly exciting new stories have there been recently? The ETF benefits have been fully realized, Layer 2's potential has peaked, and meme coin rotations are just a zero-sum game. It's not that crypto can't rise; it's just temporarily lacking a big narrative that can attract incremental off-exchange capital. $BTC is stuck here essentially waiting for the next story. Instead of guessing the price, focus on who can first tell the new narrative convincingly. What do you think the next big crypto narrative will be? #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Update (August 9)
According to liquidation data, the bulls in this wave were brutally crushed by the short-sellers...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $2,808.38 $2,758.51 $49.87
4 hours $16,400 $6,090.68 $10,300
12 hours $1,331,600 $1,313,300 $18,300
24 hours $2,176,000 $1,820,800 $355,200
From the $HYPE liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, long liquidations overwhelmingly surpassed shorts, with longs being 55 times the shorts, indicating a fierce initial bull slaughter; at 4 hours, the direction reversed, with short liquidations surpassing longs by about 1.69 times, triggering a short squeeze; at 12 hours, longs regained dominance, being 71 times the shorts, escalating the bull slaughter to a nuclear intensity; at 24 hours, long liquidations surged to $1.82 million, 5.1 times the shorts, showing the short-sellers repeatedly grinding the bulls—kill longs → short squeeze → kill longs again, with total liquidations exceeding $2.17 million. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 9
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously playing out the brutal pricing of "expectation gaps" across three different battlefields—ambiguous data, explosive earnings, and a flood of unlocks—all moving beyond expectations.
📉 Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Negative: CPI Becomes the Key to Rate Hikes
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, sharply missing market expectations of an increase between 50,000 and 140,000. May and June job additions were revised down by a total of 103,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
This contradictory report of "job losses with falling unemployment" makes the Fed's September rate hike outlook more uncertain. "New Fed Correspondent" Timiraos bluntly stated: "The July jobs report will be a confusing report for the Fed." Hawks can cite the falling unemployment rate to support hikes, while doves can point to job losses to argue for a pause.
The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a September rate hike has fallen from 57% before the report to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment but the July CPI released on August 12. If inflation is moderate, the Fed has reason to hold rates steady; if strong, more policymakers will lean toward hikes.
💾 Storage Stocks Fall After Earnings: The Bigger the Earnings, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered historic earnings: Q4 revenue of $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital's revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-over-year. However, SanDisk plunged over 11% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped more than 18%.
The culprit for the plunge was a less optimistic guidance—SanDisk's mid-point revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Given SanDisk's over 460% gain this year, the market had already priced in the good news, so the muted future guidance was interpreted negatively.
Is the AI memory bull market still intact? Opinions vary greatly. Bulls believe this AI demand cycle is very strong and storage supply shortages will last at least until 2027. Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim's latest report suggests the most severe storage adjustments are near the end, maintaining a long-term bullish view on Samsung and SK Hynix. The cautious side points out memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are unlikely to be sustained permanently. Bernstein analysts bluntly say storage chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The supercycle's long-term logic remains intact, but valuations have outpaced fundamentals—any flaw will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX Surges After Unlock: A Classic Case of "Bad News Already Priced In"
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion, doubling the float. The market widely expected a massive sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose—up 6% on the unlock day, then another 16% the next day, totaling about a 23% gain over two days, with market cap soaring over $327 billion.
The rebound logic is clear: the 14% plunge after earnings had already released some pressure; SpaceX has regularly repurchased shares internally over the past decade, with most insiders having partially cashed out; shorts were caught off guard—previously, short positions had unrealized gains exceeding $9 billion, forced to cover after unlock, creating buying pressure. Over 250 million shares remain shorted; if the stock continues rising, short covering could further boost the price.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: the confusing nonfarm employment signals tilt the September rate hike scale toward CPI—the data itself is ambiguous, but the market direction is being redefined by inflation; SanDisk's 372% growth followed by a plunge proves storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals—the market rewards "spending efficiency" rather than "spending scale"; SpaceX's surge on unlock day plays out the classic "bad news already priced in" script. When three markets simultaneously run beyond expectations, the first week of August 2026 is fiercely completing a transfer of pricing power. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ The main driver behind gold breaking through $4300 is the decline in real US Treasury yields and the interest rate cut game, rather than purely geopolitical risk aversion and flight to safety. The current core contradiction lies in the weakening labor force and the re-pricing of inflation stickiness.
Spot gold surpassing the key $4300 level is mainly driven by weaker US ADP and non-farm payroll data, which have raised expectations for rate cuts. Continuous gold purchases by global central banks and the escalation of the Middle East situation provide secondary bottom support. The absence of panic selling in the US stock market confirms that liquidity pricing dominates.
The decline in real US Treasury yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Crypto assets, as high-beta assets, follow the recovery in macro liquidity expectations, but their movement is more governed by risk appetite and cannot be fully equated with the safe-haven properties of traditional metals.
The first scenario is continued weakness in employment data and cooling inflation. The trigger condition for this scenario is lagging inflation data falling below expectations, with the variable to watch being the extent of the decline in US Treasury yields; a drop in real US Treasury yields will drive gold to new highs and simultaneously expand the recovery space for risk assets.
The second scenario is inflation showing unexpectedly persistent stickiness, causing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. The trigger condition is inflation indicators stopping their decline and rebounding; rising real US Treasury yields will suppress non-yielding assets, gold may face a temporary peak and pullback above $4300, and the crypto market will also be pressured due to tightening liquidity.
The tail risk is that worsening geopolitical situations push oil prices higher. Under stagflation expectations, funds will prioritize flowing into gold, and crypto assets will be excluded due to shrinking risk appetite; only a systemic financial credit crisis can realize the safe-haven logic of crypto assets.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are inflation data and the trend changes in real US Treasury yields.
#CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？Empty, empty, empty!
Living in the palace!
Crypto liquidity
is clearly being snatched away by the US stock market now.
The Nasdaq rose 5.19% in a week,
and the S&P 500 rose 3.58%,
both hitting all-time highs.
Both are risk assets,
but the US stock market is feasting,
while the crypto circle can only sip soup.
My short position on ETH
although currently down 2600U unrealized,
I’m not worried at all.
Holding on to 50 $ETH,
there was no volume breakout above the previous high at 1944.
The bearish scenario is not over yet.
However, around 1960 is already a danger zone.
If it really breaks through, I won’t stubbornly hold on.
Survival first, then live in the palace.
——
BTC is still hovering around 65000 now.
The intraday low hit 64124,
and the high only touched 65312.
Selling pressure above remains obvious.
On August 7, BTC spot ETF
had a net inflow of about $101.7 million,
indicating that funds have not completely left the crypto space.
But even with money flowing into ETFs,
BTC still can’t rally.
This actually shows the selling pressure above is heavy.
If 64100 can’t hold,
short-term target is near 63000.
Only when volume breaks above 65300 again
should bears be more cautious.
——
$SNDK
Quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion,
higher than the market expectation of $8.39 billion.
Adjusted EPS was $39.25,
also exceeding expectations.
Data center revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter.
The company also added $14 billion in buybacks.
Each of these news items alone is positive,
but the stock price still fell.
The reason is simple:
it has risen nearly 470% this year,
and the market has long priced in high growth.
Now it’s not about whether the performance is good or not,
but whether it’s good enough to be considered extraordinary.
As long as guidance doesn’t continue to beat expectations,
funds will choose to take profits.
A typical case of good news leading to a sell-off.
——
$BEAT faces even more direct risks.
On August 1, 21.24 million tokens unlocked,
equivalent to 6.9% of circulating supply.
After unlocking, the price first surged 16%,
then quickly plunged.
The one-hour drop exceeded 25% at one point.
Volume suddenly expanded,
but open interest clearly declined.
This is a concentrated exit of leveraged longs.
Now the rebound looks more like an oversold recovery after a crash,
not a trend reversal.
On September 1, another 11.25 million tokens will unlock,
about 3.4% of current market cap.
The overhead supply hasn’t been fully digested yet.
Chasing highs is easy to get trapped again.
——
So my view hasn’t changed:
it’s not that the crypto space is completely out of money,
but new funds prefer chasing US stocks.
BTC still has ETF money supporting it,
but altcoins have clearly fallen behind.
As long as ETH can’t hold 1944,
and BTC can’t hold 64100,
this rebound could end at any time.
My short position is still losing,
but the direction hasn’t been disproved yet.
Do you think I’m right or not?
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ A narrative quietly shifting gears: Nvidia has agreed to invest up to $3 billion in the power infrastructure company Lancium — backed by Blackstone, specializing in providing power to AI campuses in Texas serving OpenAI and Oracle.
Those in the know understand the significance of this line: the bottleneck for AI is shifting from "computing power" to "electricity." In the past two years, everyone scrambled for GPUs and advanced process nodes; now even Nvidia itself is starting to invest upstream in power. This indicates that the short-term ceiling for data centers is not chips, but whether they can secure electricity that is cheap enough and stable enough. The next real bottleneck narrative might not be on silicon, but on the power grid. Whoever controls the power controls AI's production capacity. Let's watch. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound ⚠️ IMPORTANT NEW UPDATE: BITCOIN ETF CASH FLOW FOR 07/08 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO +101.7 MILLION USD
Vietnam time: around 12:03 on 08/08/2026
Importance level: 🟠 Medium–high
Farside has added BlackRock IBIT data of +86.7 million USD. Therefore, the total US spot Bitcoin ETF cash flow on 07/08 increased from the preliminary estimate of about +15 million USD to +101.7 million USD.
Key details: IBIT +86.7M, Fidelity FBTC +41.0M, BITB +2.1M, ARKB +1.9M; outflows include BTCO −19.4M and HODL −10.6M.
Thus, Bitcoin ETFs have had 5 consecutive net buying sessions from 03–07/08 with a total of about +865.3 million USD. This is a significantly better signal than the preliminary estimate this morning and shows that institutional buying pressure has not been broken after the weak NFP.
What to watch for BTC: if BTC continues to hold price while ETFs keep net buying, DXY remains below 100, and Treasury yields are lower than before NFP, the short-term macro structure continues to lean supportive. Reuters noted DXY ended the week around 99.50, 2Y yield about 4.245%, 10Y about 4.649% after the jobs report.
Currently, no FOMC, CPI, PCE, GDP, or new interest rate decisions are expected within the next 24 hours that require a separate alert.$BTC #🚨The largest regulatory bill in the crypto market has been postponed, so why hasn't BTC crashed?
The US CLARITY Act vote has been delayed until September.
This news is very critical for the crypto community.
Because the bill involves:
The regulatory boundary between the SEC and CFTC
Classification of digital assets
Rules for the US crypto market
The market originally expected it to pass in August, but now it needs to wait for further progress.
Interestingly:
The news is somewhat negative,
Yet BTC still holds around $65,000.
This indicates:
The market's core focus has shifted from "policy expectations" to:
Federal Reserve liquidity
ETF funds
Institutional allocation
In the short term:
The regulatory delay may affect sentiment.
In the long term:
Clear rules might actually attract more institutions.
The real big money
Doesn't look at daily price swings but at rule changes over the coming years.
#CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 🚨AI storage continues to explode, and there's a big trend hidden behind SanDisk's earnings report!
Recently, the AI industry chain has once again become the market focus.
SanDisk's latest earnings report:
Revenue:
$8.97 billion
Exceeded expectations:
$8.48 billion
Data center business:
$2.97 billion, year-over-year growth exceeding 100%
The market is not seeing just a storage company, but AI infrastructure demand.
The current AI chain:
NVIDIA → Computing power
SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix → Storage
Microsoft, Amazon → Cloud computing
But here’s the question:
After AI funds rise, will they look for new high-elasticity directions?
Historically:
US tech stocks rise
⬇️
Risk appetite increases
⬇️
Funds flow into assets like BTC
Currently, BTC remains around $65,000.
The biggest significance of AI continuing to be strong for the crypto circle:
It’s not a direct benefit, but it boosts market risk appetite.
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Today let's talk about the divergence phenomenon in the AI market. Storage chips have fallen quite badly; Seagate dropped more than 4%, Western Digital, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all fell over 3%. Major banks have directly cut their target prices, with Jefferies slashing SanDisk's target from $3000 to $1750, and Citi cutting from $2500 to $2100, roughly halving it. On the other hand, the optical communication sector is rallying, with Coherent up more than 13%, Credo up over 8%, $SNDK Lumentum up more than 6%, and Corning up over 5%. Both are AI infrastructure, so why such a big difference? The logic is actually quite simple: optical modules and optical communication supply AI data centers, so demand is the most certain, while the storage market worries that earnings guidance may fall short of expectations and the inventory cycle may have peaked. To put it bluntly, AI investment is still ongoing, but the market is starting to be selective; just being related to AI doesn't guarantee a rise—only segments with genuine supply shortages can command a premium. In this round of divergence, are you siding with storage or optical communication?
Inherited wealth code: short SNDK, long SpacX.
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $XSNDK $XMU #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？
The biggest risk to oil prices has temporarily cooled down, but the crisis cannot yet be declared over.
The U.S. has revealed that negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, and the market has begun trading on expectations of "supply restoration."
This is also a key reason for the recent decline in oil prices.
But the issue is:
The market is not afraid of just a "negotiation progress" statement.
What the market truly cares about is:
Can oil tankers pass through normally?
Will insurance costs decrease?
Can crude oil supply truly be restored?
If it is only political easing without actual shipping resuming, the risk premium on oil prices may return.
The market is now entering a critical phase:
Short term:
→ Negotiation expectations lower oil prices
Medium term:
→ Watch the actual navigation status of Hormuz
If risks continue to decline:
Energy price pressures ease,
Inflation expectations may continue to cool,
Providing some support to risk assets including BTC.
But if negotiations fail:
Oil prices may reprice geopolitical risks.
So it is not "the end of the oil price crisis" now.
It is more like:
The market is celebrating early, but reality still needs verification.
Key judgment:
✅ Shipping resumes → Oil price risks continue to decline
❌ Negotiations break down/transportation obstructed → Risk premium returns
The market’s next focus is not the meeting results.
But:
Whether the first oil tanker can safely pass through Hormuz.
$CL 📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (August 9)
According to liquidation data, the shorts were brutally crushed by the "dog whales" in this round...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $1,141.96 $10.16 $1,131.80
4 hours $52,100 $9,870.23 $42,300
12 hours $255,500 $139,100 $116,400
24 hours $1,074,100 $255,600 $818,600
From the $ZEC liquidation data, short liquidations crushed longs in the 1-hour and 4-hour windows; 1-hour shorts were 111 times the longs, and the 4-hour ratio was about 4.3 times, indicating a fierce short squeeze in the short term; the 12-hour direction reversed with long liquidations surpassing shorts by about 1.19 times, signaling a long squeeze; in 24 hours, long liquidations surged to $255,600, but shorts still held absolute dominance—short liquidations reached $818,600, 3.2 times the longs. The "dog whales" executed a short-term short squeeze and a long-term stubborn but defeated long resistance on ZEC, with total liquidations exceeding $1.07 million. Shorts suffered heavy losses, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 9
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously playing out the brutal pricing of "expectation gaps" across three different battlefields—ambiguous data, explosive earnings, and a flood of unlocks—all moving beyond expectations.
📉 Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Negative: CPI Becomes the Key to Rate Hikes
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, sharply missing the market expectation of an increase between 50,000 and 140,000. May and June job additions were revised down by a total of 103,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
This contradictory report of "job losses and falling unemployment" makes the Fed's September rate hike outlook more uncertain. "New Fed Correspondent" Timiraos bluntly said: "The July jobs report will be a confusing report for the Fed." Hawks can cite the falling unemployment rate to support hikes, while doves can argue for a pause citing job losses.
The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a September rate hike has fallen from 57% before the report to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment but the July CPI released on August 12. If inflation is mild, the Fed has reason to hold rates steady; if strong, more policymakers will support hikes.
💾 Storage Stocks Fall After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered historic earnings: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital revenue $3.747 billion, up 44% year-over-year. However, SanDisk plunged over 11% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped over 18%.
The culprit for the plunge was a less optimistic guidance—SanDisk's mid-point revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against SanDisk's over 460% gain this year, the market had fully priced in the good news, so the muted future guidance was interpreted negatively.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Opinions vary greatly. Bulls believe this AI demand cycle is very strong and storage supply shortages will last at least until 2027. Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim's latest report states the most severe storage adjustments are near the end, maintaining a long-term bullish view on Samsung and SK Hynix. The cautious side points out memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are unlikely to last forever. Bernstein analysts bluntly say storage chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for AI and non-AI applications. The supercycle's long-term logic remains intact, but valuations have outpaced fundamentals—any flaw will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX Soars After Unlock: A Classic Case of "Bad News Already Priced In"
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion, doubling the float. The market had widely expected massive sell-offs.
Instead, the stock price rose—up 6% on the unlock day, then another ~16% the next day, totaling about 23% in two days, with market cap surging over $327 billion.
The rebound logic is clear: the 14% plunge after earnings had already released some pressure; SpaceX has regularly repurchased shares internally over the past decade, with most insiders having partially cashed out; shorts were caught off guard—previously, shorts had unrealized gains exceeding $9 billion, forced to cover after unlock, creating buying pressure. Over 250 million shares remain shorted; if the price continues rising, short covering could further boost the stock.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: the confusing nonfarm employment signals tilt the September rate hike scale toward CPI—the data itself is ambiguous, but the market direction is being redefined by inflation; SanDisk's 372% growth followed by a plunge proves storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals—the market rewards "spending efficiency" rather than "spending scale"; SpaceX's surge on unlock day illustrates the classic "bad news already priced in" scenario. When three markets simultaneously run beyond expectations, the first week of August 2026 is fiercely completing a transfer of pricing power. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Why does Coinbase insist on building Base?
Many people don't understand:
Coinbase is already one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, so why spend time creating its own blockchain?
The answer is actually simple:
Exchanges earn from transaction fees, but ecosystems earn from the entire network's value.
In the past, users had to go through exchanges to buy and sell coins.
But in the future, if more users enter the on-chain world directly, the position of exchanges might be weakened.
So Coinbase needs to plan ahead.
The emergence of Base is essentially about grabbing one thing:
The user gateway to Web3.
Through Base, Coinbase can connect its users, developers, capital, and applications.
Users won't just trade BTC and ETH; they can also use DeFi, gaming, social, and other applications on-chain.
More importantly, Base follows the Ethereum Layer 2 approach, which can reduce transaction costs while leveraging the Ethereum ecosystem's growth.
Of course, Base also faces competition.
Ecosystems like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Solana are all vying for developers and users.
What truly determines Base's value is not how advanced the technology is, but whether it can form its own ecosystem loop.
If on-chain finance and applications become mainstream in the future, platforms with user gateways may be more valuable than pure exchanges.
Coinbase building Base is not really about capturing just a blockchain.
It's about the gateway to the next generation of the internet. $XCOIN $ETH $BICO BICO has surged more than 4 times in one week! It jumped straight from 0.011 to 0.063, rising 403% in 7 days. The current price is 0.059, with a 24-hour high of 0.063. While other coins are still stagnant, this one has already blasted off into outer space. Shorts have been buried everywhere, and those chasing the highs are now blowing wind at the peak.
What is BICO?
BICO is the native token of Biconomy, which focuses on Web3 account abstraction and cross-chain infrastructure. Simply put, it allows ordinary users to use dApps with one click without needing to understand Gas fees or worry about which chain they are on. It processes 50,000 transactions daily and connects to over 40 dApps. It sounds impressive, but the competition in this field is fierce, and BICO is not the exclusive leader.
Why did it rise 4 times in a week?
1. Shorts were crushed. The funding rate for BICO perpetual contracts once dropped to -0.26%, making short positions very costly. Shorts kept adding to their positions, but the price didn’t fall; instead, it rose 30-40%—shorts got trapped. With low liquidity, even a slight push from the bulls forces shorts to cover their positions, which is a classic short squeeze.
2. Small market cap + high hype = violent pump. BICO’s market cap is only 12-15 million USD, so it doesn’t take much money to pump the price. Discussion volume on Binance Square soared from an average of 91 daily posts to over 30,000. The price pumps first, then the market finds reasons to justify the rise. This kind of "reflexive" market moves sharply both up and down.
3. "Fully circulating" is the biggest confidence booster. BICO is already fully circulating, with no new unlocked tokens being released. After the project unlocked and transferred 90 million BICO to exchanges in May, early holders have cleared out. There’s no massive unlocking pressure, which sets it apart from many new tokens.
What about the technicals?
The 4-hour RSI has already shot above 92—extremely overbought. Resistance lies at 0.063-0.064; a breakout could target 0.07-0.075. Support is at 0.05-0.052; breaking below that could see 0.045-0.047. The funding rate is still negative, shorts are still holding, and the short squeeze fuel hasn’t burned out yet. But an RSI of 92 means a sudden drop could happen anytime, so be cautious chasing highs.
Trading advice:
For those holding positions: move your stop loss up below 0.05, take profits in batches at 0.063-0.065. Don’t be greedy; a 4x profit in a week is time to take some off the table.
For those not yet in: wait for a pullback to 0.05-0.052 before considering entry, stop loss at 0.047, target 0.06-0.065. Chasing now is basically handing the bag to others.
For those wanting to short: wait for 0.063-0.065 to try shorting, stop loss at 0.07, target 0.052-0.05. Contrarian trades must be light—there are already plenty of short corpses on the ground; don’t be the next one.
Core conclusion: This BICO surge is driven by short squeeze + small cap rotation + community FOMO, not a fundamental reversal. Full circulation is its confidence base, but after a 4x gain in a week, the risk/reward of chasing is almost zero. Wait for a correction, wait for stabilization, don’t FOMO. On the night of the November 2024 election, $DOGE surged 30% in a single day, and the entire market was shouting "Trump + Musk = Dogecoin to the moon." Nearly two years have passed, and as of August 8, 2026, DOGE is priced at $0.070, down 90% from its all-time high of 0.73, while $BTC is only at $64,529. Looking back, this "political tailwind" rally was a textbook case of all the good news being priced in.
Let's clear up the facts first. The logic chain after the election was: Trump pro-crypto → Musk joins the government → DOGE department directly uses Dogecoin's name → DOGE is set to take off. What was the market actually buying at the time? It wasn’t the policy itself, but the "imagination space." The result? Musk broke ties with the government in May last year, the DOGE department automatically dissolved on July 4 this year according to regulations, promising to cut 2 trillion but only saving 215 billion in the end, even Musk himself said, "If I had known, I would have gone back to focus on making cars." The political narrative, from story to reality, saw its premium wiped out the moment it materialized.
On the other hand, the Trump administration’s crypto policies were genuinely implemented, and the benefits exceeded everyone’s expectations during the election. On January 22 this year, 21Shares’ DOGE spot ETF was listed on Nasdaq under the ticker TDOG, with the SEC explicitly stating for the first time that Dogecoin is not a security; in March, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified DOGE as a digital commodity. Who would have dared to imagine this during the 2024 election? A Meme coin obtained regulatory status on par with BTC and ETH.
Here’s the problem: with such significant institutional benefits, why is the price stagnating? Because the market structure has changed. TDOG’s assets under management are only about $13.7 million, and there has been basically no net inflow since the ETF launched, indicating institutions are not buying into Meme coins; the ETF merely provides a channel, but no money has come in. Meanwhile, retail sentiment, which truly drives DOGE’s price, is now ice-cold—the Fear & Greed Index is at 29, in the fear zone. Coupled with an unhelpful macro environment—high U.S. Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve holding steady before September—BTC has been stuck in a range between 57,730 and 67,000 for six weeks, and high-beta assets like DOGE can only repeatedly test the demand zone between 0.069 and 0.078.
My inference is this: Trump’s crypto-friendly policies are a "slow variable" for DOGE, not a "fast variable." Regulatory status, ETF channels, and the CLARITY Act build a long-term foundation, but price triggers always require a return of retail sentiment, which depends on two things—BTC breaking previous highs or Musk pumping again. The former depends on the September FOMC and liquidity turning points; the latter is pure luck. The election narrative has been fully priced in, and after that, it’s actually clean: the current price of 0.07 contains no political premium, only fear. Historically, every major DOGE rally started from this position of "no one talks politics, no one believes in good news." The policy bottom is firmly set; now it’s just a matter of waiting for the sentiment bottom to emerge on its own.📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 9)
According to liquidation data, the short-term market is almost at a standstill, but the mid-to-long-term bulls are being aggressively crushed by the "dog whales"...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $0.34 $0 $0.34
4 hours $0.34 $0 $0.34
12 hours $3,387.57 $3,387.22 $0.34
24 hours $5,648.35 $5,248.67 $399.68
From the $CORE liquidation data, the 1-hour and 4-hour markets show almost zero volatility, with liquidation amounts only $0.34, indicating extremely dry liquidity; the 12-hour direction suddenly reverses, with long liquidations crushing shorts, the long liquidation volume nearly 10,000 times that of shorts, triggering a widespread short squeeze in short and mid cycles; the 24-hour long advantage continues but shorts begin to resist, at a ratio of about 13:1, with short resistance significantly strengthening—short liquidations surged from $0.34 at 12 hours to $399. The dog whales on CORE have switched from extremely low volatility to a fierce long squeeze—almost no trading in short cycles, targeted liquidation of mid-to-long-term bulls, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $5,600. Although the scale is limited, the directional switch is very decisive. Everyone should manage positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously playing out the brutal pricing of "expectation gaps" across three different battlefields—ambiguous data, explosive earnings, and a flood of unlocks—all moving in directions beyond expectations.
📉 Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Negative: The Scale Tips Toward CPI for Rate Hikes
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, sharply missing market expectations of an increase between 50,000 and 140,000. May and June job additions were revised down by a total of 103,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
This contradictory report of "job losses with falling unemployment" makes the Fed's September rate hike outlook more uncertain. "New Fed Communications" Timiraos bluntly said: "The July jobs report will be a confusing report for the Fed." Hawks can cite the falling unemployment rate to support hikes, while doves can point to job losses to argue for a pause.
The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a September hike has dropped from 57% before the report to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment but the July CPI released on August 12. If inflation is mild, the Fed has reason to hold rates steady; if strong, more policymakers will lean toward hikes.
💾 Storage Stocks Fall After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a historic earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital's revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44%. However, SanDisk plunged over 11% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped over 18%.
The culprit for the plunge was a less optimistic guidance—SanDisk's next quarter revenue midpoint guidance of $10.55 billion fell short of market expectations. Against a backdrop of SanDisk's over 460% gain this year, the market had already priced in the good news, so the muted future guidance was interpreted negatively.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Opinions diverge. Bulls believe this AI demand cycle is very persistent, with storage supply shortages continuing at least until 2027. Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim's latest report points out that the most severe storage adjustments are nearing an end, maintaining a long-term bullish view on Samsung and SK Hynix. The cautious side notes that memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are unlikely to be sustained permanently. Bernstein analysts bluntly state: storage chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have outpaced fundamentals—any flaw will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX Surges After Unlock: A Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion, doubling the float. The market had widely expected a massive sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose—the unlock day gained 6%, the next day rose about 16%, a two-day cumulative increase of about 23%, with market cap surging over $327 billion.
The rebound logic is clear: the 14% plunge after earnings had already released some pressure; SpaceX has regularly repurchased shares internally over the past decade, with most insiders having partially cashed out; shorts were caught off guard—previously, short positions had paper profits exceeding $9 billion, forced to cover after unlock, creating buying pressure. Currently, over 250 million shares remain shorted; if the stock continues to rise, short covering could further push up the price.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: the confusing nonfarm employment signals tip the September rate hike scale toward CPI—the data itself is ambiguous, but the market direction is being redefined by inflation; SanDisk's 372% growth followed by a plunge proves storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals—the market rewards "spending efficiency" rather than "spending scale"; SpaceX's surge on unlock day plays out the classic "bad news is good news" script. When three markets simultaneously run beyond expectations, the first week of August 2026 is completing a fierce handover of pricing power. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK Nonfarm payrolls turned negative in July, down 23,000. Market expectation was an increase of 85,000, leaving a gap of 108,000. This is the third largest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020. Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September plunged from a high point. US Treasury yields retreated, the dollar weakened, and gold broke above 4400. For BTC, the short-term turn to negative nonfarm payrolls is a real positive sign. Liquidity expectations improve, and a weaker dollar directly supports risk assets. The market has already shown its response. Short-term sentiment is shifting toward the bulls But whether the market can continue depends on next Wednesday's CPI. If CPI continues to fall, rate cut expectations will further strengthen and the dollar will continue to weaken. BTC may challenge resistance levels above. If CPI rebounds, the market will fall into a more complex game. Inflation can't be suppressed, and the Fed can't even loosen it. BTC will return to range-bound fluctuations. Nonfarm payrolls have given direction, but CPI is the judge. Before August 12, don't rush to bet heavily. It's not too late to act after the data comes in. Short-term positive news; in the medium term, look at CPI before confirming direction. Don't run out of bullets. #NonfarmUnexpected Negative CPI Becomes Key to Rate Hikes: #存储股财报后续跌, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable? #财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Funds going long on risk assets have just followed the Fed's lowered rate hike expectations, and the intraday rise and fall trend has restrained the buying momentum chasing highs. The tension between cooling employment and inflation prevention is unfolding in the market.
$BTC, after leveraging the momentum to break through $65,300, lacked sufficient buying support and then retreated to around $64,800. The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index both moved downward in sync.
US July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, far below the expected increase of 80,000. Although the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, this was mainly due to 264,000 people leaving the labor force, causing the participation rate to fall to 61.4%.
The previous downward revisions of employment data combined with labor force withdrawal have lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, but the weak buying indicates that funds are assessing the potential risk of economic slowdown evolving into recession pricing.
If the upcoming CPI inflation further declines, confirming easing expectations, it will open space for risk appetite recovery. However, if inflation remains sticky, this bullish logic will fail due to hawkish statements from Fed officials.
If subsequent employment deterioration prompts the market to quickly switch from pausing rate hikes to recession pricing, risk assets may face deeper selling pressure unless macro liquidity receives substantial easing signals.
Current positions, mainly focused on risk aversion and betting on policy shifts, are highly vulnerable to being disproved by data. The core market divergence lies in whether the Fed will relent before inflation is fully under control.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether next week's CPI inflation data will re-elevate the Fed's rate hike probability.
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
Spot gold has strongly broken through the $4300 mark, launching a sharp rebound. Many community members are puzzled whether this surge is driven by geopolitical safe-haven funds entering the market or by the market preemptively betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut. These two logics are completely different and will directly impact the Bitcoin market.
Let's break down the current market situation: in this rally, rate cut expectations are the main theme, while safe-haven demand is only a secondary factor.
Recently, US ADP and nonfarm payroll data have continued to weaken, leading the market to lower the probability of Fed rate hikes and causing US Treasury real yields to decline. Gold is a non-yielding asset; as interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, which is the core driving force behind this rally.
Of course, safe-haven funds are also involved: the Middle East situation remains volatile, global central banks continue to buy gold to support the bottom; meanwhile, a large number of gold shorts accumulated earlier triggered short covering after breaking key levels, further amplifying this rally.
But it’s important to distinguish: if this were purely a geopolitical panic-driven safe-haven move, US stocks and risk assets would fall in tandem; however, US stocks have not experienced large-scale panic selling, indicating that the dominant trading driver is macro interest rate repricing, not pure safe-haven flight.
Understanding these two scenarios helps to grasp both gold and Bitcoin’s interconnected logic.
Scenario 1: Employment continues to weaken, CPI cools down, rate cut expectations continue to ferment (baseline optimistic)
Inflation data falls back, employment continues to cool, the market further prices in rate cuts, and US Treasury yields keep declining.
- Gold: continues to benefit from falling real yields and is likely to push higher;
- Bitcoin: also benefits from expectations of looser liquidity, as a high-beta risk asset, it follows the broader market recovery.
In this scenario, gold and Bitcoin tend to rise together, representing a liquidity-driven dual bull market.
Scenario 2: CPI rebounds again, inflation stickiness exceeds expectations (hawkish risk scenario)
Even if employment worsens, inflation rises again, and the Fed maintains high rates or even keeps the option to hike.
- Gold: will be suppressed short-term by rising Treasury yields; this rebound is likely to peak and pull back in phases; geopolitical conflicts only bring short-term pulses and cannot counter a high-rate long cycle;
- Bitcoin: will suffer more. As a non-yielding asset, its opportunity cost rises, risk appetite contracts, and the market comes under pressure.
A key misconception here: when geopolitics push inflation higher, gold acts as a safe haven, but Bitcoin tends to fall. Gold is a traditional safe haven, while Bitcoin is more sensitive to risk appetite; their attributes are not fully equivalent.
Scenario 3: Sudden severe escalation of geopolitical risk (tail black swan)
Large-scale deterioration of Middle East conflicts, violent surge in oil prices, spreading market panic.
- Gold will directly rally as a safe haven;
- Bitcoin will likely diverge: if it’s stagflation panic, funds flow into gold for safety, and Bitcoin is sold off; only in the event of a systemic financial credit crisis will Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative truly materialize.1. Coldcard Hardware Wallet Exposes Critical Vulnerability, Over $100 Million BTC Stolen, Self-Custody Faith Faces a Test
Recently, Coldcard hardware wallet under Coinkite was found to have a long-standing firmware vulnerability that existed for five years and was only discovered through AI large model detection. Hackers exploited this to steal between 1,596 and 2,000 bitcoins, valued at approximately $116 million to $130 million, affecting thousands of asset addresses, with much of the stolen funds eventually flowing to centralized custody platforms.
The crypto industry's core self-custody logic of "controlling the private key means owning the asset" has suffered a major blow. Retail investors will increasingly prefer compliant asset custody methods like $ETH and managed financial custody; meanwhile, the industry will raise hardware wallet security audit standards.
In the short term, sentiment in the self-custody sector is under pressure and weakening; over the longer term, compliant custody and institutional asset management products will see beneficial growth.
2. U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs Continue to Attract Funds, BlackRock's Single Product Accounts for Majority of Net Inflows
On August 6, the overall net inflow into U.S. spot $BTC ETFs was $129 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $128 million, nearly accounting for all the day's inflows. In the first days of August, cumulative net inflows surpassed $600 to $750 million, marking the strongest weekly capital inflow since April this year.
Institutional whales also began continuous accumulation at the end of July, adding over 20,000 BTC, equivalent to $1.2 billion; the current price remains stable in the $64,000 to $65,000 range.
Even with sideways market movement and slowed regulatory progress, institutional long-term allocation demand remains solid, with strong willingness for institutional capital deployment.
Overall, this is positive for the market, providing support for Bitcoin's price and accelerating the institutionalization of the entire market.
3. BIP-110 Soft Fork Voting Window Approaches, Miner Support Extremely Low, Fork Disagreements Widen
The BIP-110 proposal is essentially a temporary soft fork rule mainly aimed at restricting on-chain non-financial redundant data like inscriptions. The voting activation window will open at block height 961,632, around August 8 to 9.
Currently, miner voting support is only 1%-2%, far below the 55% threshold needed for activation; although some nodes favor the proposal, the official Bitcoin Core client has not adopted it, posing a potential risk of a niche fork chain emerging.
This proposal has reignited industry discussions on Bitcoin ecosystem governance and the fundamental use cases of the base public chain, which will change market consensus on the functional positioning of L1 public chains.
From a market perspective, the short-term outlook is bearish with increased uncertainty; the long-term outcome depends on whether the chain fork actually materializes. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $XAU Professor Li Huihui from Lyon Business School in France exposed the essence: gold is trading in a dilemma of U.S. policy. When inflation rises, the Fed needs to remain firm; when the Treasury market is under pressure, liquidity must be maintained. Both goals are becoming increasingly difficult to achieve simultaneously. As a result, gold gains an extra layer of sovereign credit insurance value. In plain terms, people used to buy gold because of interest rate cut expectations; now, they buy gold because the dollar system itself may no longer be reliable. Looking at capital flows, global gold ETFs have increased their holdings by 24 tons since July 20 COMEX gold speculative net long positions increased by 12,070 contracts in the week ending August 4, bringing the total to 132398 contracts. The gold ETF Huaan has seen net inflows exceeding 6 billion yuan for 16 consecutive days. Domestic and overseas capital is resonating and returning. What's even more severe is the structural factor: central banks in developed economies hold about 30% of gold reserves on average, while central banks in emerging markets only 15%. This 15% gap is a decades-long insufficient demand for gold purchases. Every gold price surge is a silent vote against the long-term depreciation trend of fiat currencies. The US federal debt is now approaching 40 trillion Annual interest expenses exceed 1 trillion yuan, surpassing defense spending. The Fed is raising rates now, fearing it will trigger debt; if not, it fears losing control of inflation. It's a deadlock on both sides. On August 12, US July CPI data will be released. If inflation continues to decline, gold may accelerate. If inflation rebounds, gold's story will be more complicated. But the logic behind sovereign credit insurance will actually be stronger. Gold is not betting on rate cuts now, but on whether the dollar is still trustworthy. This is a dilemma#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 The US July nonfarm payroll data showed a clear cooling:
New jobs decreased by 23,000, far below market expectations, while May and June employment data were significantly revised downward. After the announcement, the market quickly lowered the September rate hike expectations.
Interestingly, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, indicating that the US job market has not deteriorated broadly.
So now the market enters a new game:
Weak employment, can it outweigh inflation?
If employment continues to weaken, the Fed may need to consider economic pressure; but if CPI remains high, inflation stickiness still exists, making it difficult for the Fed to quickly shift to easing.
I believe the most critical upcoming data is not nonfarm payrolls, but CPI. Nonfarm tells the market whether the economy is cooling, while CPI determines whether the Fed has room to cut rates.
For $BTC and US stocks, the real catalyst is not the quality of a single data point, but whether the market can confirm:
"The Fed is moving from a high interest rate cycle to an easing cycle."
Recent macro data fluctuations also remind investors not to overtrade single events.
Good data does not necessarily mean assets will rise; bad data does not necessarily mean the trend will reverse.
What is more important now is to observe policy direction.
If CPI continues to decline and rate cut expectations heat up, risk assets may see new opportunities;
If inflation rebounds, the Fed remains hawkish, and the market may continue to fluctuate. On August 8, Serenity posted that the White House has finally begun to increase investment in critical minerals and materials sectors, calling it a "pleasant surprise" policy move that will help advance the construction of key supply chains in the United States.
Among publicly listed companies, FEAM received $8 million in funding mainly for boron material development; HREE received $4.8 million focusing on magnetic rare earth materials. Additionally, the U.S. government invested in private enterprises, including $150 million in Niron Magnetics and $85 million in Standard Bauxite.
Serenity believes that for the U.S. government, these funding amounts are just "pocket change," but they can leverage a large number of downstream industrial applications and are significant for reducing risks in the critical materials supply chain.
However, he stated that the current scale of investment is still insufficient to fully resolve supply chain issues, and further funding support is needed in the future to accelerate the implementation of critical mineral projects and reduce risks in the industrial chain development.
Serenity emphasized that he does not hold shares in the aforementioned companies and only supports the direction of this policy. $BTC $ETH BonkDAO did not lose its private key, and the contract was not breached. The attacker only bought about 882.4 billion $BONK, just crossing the 1% voting threshold, then used their own votes to pass BIP-76 and transferred 4.426 trillion BONK from the treasury into designated wallets. This proposal was publicly listed for about six days, with only 7 wallets participating among over 18,000 governance addresses. The attacker controlled 99.9% of the votes, spent about $4.4 million, and acquired approximately $20 million in assets, with an ROI close to 1:5. What I care about more is not that attackers exploited loopholes, but that controlling the treasury costs far less than the treasury itself. Voting rights can be temporarily purchased; after proposals pass, there is no time lock, veto party, or second confirmation; the code can only faithfully execute governance with almost no participants. Several Korean exchanges subsequently suspended deposits or placed BONK on trading warnings, bearing the cost of governance failures in the secondary market. Decentralization does not automatically bring autonomy; When the majority of holders never vote, decision-making power ultimately belongs to those willing to pay to obtain a quorum. The BONK incident left a very straightforward judgment standard: when evaluating a DAO, first calculate the purchase voting threshold and then see how many assets it is guarding. $BONK $SOL #DAO #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #新手必看: Everything you need is here The Federal Reserve is expected to start easing!
July's non-farm payrolls directly showed negative growth, and employment data from previous months continue to be revised downward.
Not long ago, the market was still worried about whether there would be further rate hikes in September, but now the probability of a rate hike has clearly decreased.
The reactions of gold, silver, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market these days are all re-trading one question:
Can the U.S. economy still withstand the current interest rates?
But things outside are not truly peaceful.
The Middle East has only re-established a negotiation framework, which does not mean the risks have disappeared; AI performance is still growing, but valuations are getting more expensive; SpaceX, chips, AI, and other hot sectors still excite investors.
So the current market is actually quite contradictory.
On one hand, employment is cooling down, and monetary policy pressure may gradually ease;
On the other hand, geopolitical risks, high valuations, and economic slowdown issues have not gone away.
This is why I think what really matters next is not chasing every piece of news, but watching whether the direction of liquidity has changed.
If employment continues to weaken and inflation keeps falling, the Federal Reserve's stance will naturally change. The U.S. Senate did not advance the CLARITY Act vote before the August recess, and it is expected to wait until at least mid-September when Congress reconvenes.
If passed, the CLARITY Act will further clarify:
The regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC;
Classification of crypto assets;
Regulatory framework for trading platforms;
The legal framework for U.S. institutions entering the crypto market.
The likelihood of rapid implementation in 2026 has significantly decreased.
The impact on BTC is relatively neutral, with greater effects on Coinbase, Circle, and U.S. crypto infrastructure companies.