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$BTC $ETH $SNDK Is the Strait of Hormuz about to "ease up"? Crude oil bulls, don't rush to celebrate yet!
Iran and Oman recently reached a preliminary consensus on the geographic coordinates of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, and their joint statement has entered the final confirmation stage.
Once the news broke, the market quickly interpreted it as a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East, reducing shipping risks, and international oil prices immediately came under pressure. After all, the Strait of Hormuz handles a large volume of global crude oil transportation. Once the route stabilizes, tanker detours, transport delays, and insurance costs are expected to decline, which would exert some downward pressure on oil prices.
However, the agreement has not yet been officially finalized.
Iran has clearly stated that reaching an agreement on the route coordinates does not mean the security issues of the strait have been resolved.
Key details such as subsequent route management, transit fees, and third-party involvement still need to be negotiated, and many uncertainties remain.
For the market, this feels more like a cooling of risk sentiment rather than a complete removal of risk.
In the short term, international crude oil may face a retreat of supply risk premiums, and earlier momentum-driven funds might choose to take profits; safe-haven assets like gold could also face some pressure. But if negotiations stall again or new friction occurs in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premiums for oil and gold could quickly return.
For the crypto space, geopolitical easing usually helps improve market risk appetite. If oil prices fall and risk aversion cools, risk assets like BTC and ETH are likely to gain some sentiment support; however, if Middle East tensions escalate again, global funds may flow back to safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, putting short-term selling pressure on crypto.
The most important things to watch next are when the joint statement will be officially released and how much route management authority Iran will ultimately obtain.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz has not fully stabilized, the global energy market and risk assets cannot truly sound the all-clear. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Unemployment benefits have hardened again! Wash has gained another rate hike chip!
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 1 was 199,000, below the expected 202,000, showing the labor market remains strong. Challenger job cuts also dropped from 45,800 to 33,400—no one is unemployed, so how will inflation come down?
Last week Wash just said "If inflation is strong, there will be a rate hike in September," and today the employment data directly handed a knife to the hawks. After the data was released, the dollar rose, and Bitcoin was pressured to give back gains. This "good data = bad news" script should be very familiar to the crypto world.
Retail investors, don't be stubborn. Any rebound before the non-farm payrolls is a bull trap; keep your positions tight and reduce leverage. The better the data, the sharper the scythe—wait for Friday's non-farm payrolls before making a move; missing one day won't hurt. #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 The largest unlocking in the history of the US stock market is here! SpaceX is releasing 911 million shares today, doubling the circulating supply directly.
Today (August 6), up to 911.5 million shares held by SpaceX employees and pre-IPO shareholders are officially unlocked.
Based on the closing price of $108.27 on August 5, these shares are worth about $98.7 billion. Based on the closing price of $125.33 on August 4, the value is $114 billion.
No matter which price you use, this is the largest lock-up expiration in the history of the US capital market.
Here are some key numbers for you to feel:
SpaceX currently has only 639 million shares in circulation. The 911.5 million shares unlocked today are 1.43 times the current circulating supply.
After unlocking, the tradable shares will increase from 639 million to up to 1.55 billion shares.
But this is just the beginning. By early December this year, the tradable shares will surge to 5.33 billion shares, more than 8 times the current amount.
What makes SpaceX different from other IPO companies?
Most companies unlock all shares at once when the lock-up period ends after IPO. But SpaceX has a nine-stage phased unlocking.
Today releases the first batch—20% subject to a 180-day lock-up period. Then on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26, another 7% will be released each time. After the Q3 earnings report, 28% will be released. The remaining shares will be fully unlocked on December 8.
Baillie Gifford’s fund manager said something very apt: "We have never seen such an arrangement, never seen such a scale of unlocking, nor such a phased lock-up implementation. We are in uncharted territory."
So will these shares be sold?
Not necessarily. Unlocking does not equal selling.
But the question is—who holds these shares? What is their cost basis?
SpaceX’s private valuation was only about $400 billion a year ago. After completing the acquisition of xAI this year, the overall valuation reached $1 trillion.
Even if the current stock price has dropped nearly 50% from its peak, the paper gains for early investors and employees are still huge.
An analyst from Renaissance Capital said bluntly: "Employees and early investors find it hard to resist the opportunity to sell because they hold huge gains and have strong incentives to realize returns and diversify holdings."
More importantly, some early investors want to cash out not for consumption—but to buy private shares of other companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril. This money won’t stay in the account; it will flow directly to the next betting table.
So what is really happening today?
US stock investment websites believe this is not an ordinary unlocking. This is a tsunami on the supply side.
At the time of listing, SpaceX’s circulating shares accounted for less than 5% of total shares, and scarcity supported the valuation.
Starting today, this scarcity is being systematically dismantled. Moreover, short sellers have long positioned themselves—currently about 30%-35% of tradable shares are shorted, with short sellers’ paper profits around $7 billion.
$SPCX $TSLA $SNDK $AMD $MSFT #美股Uniswap launched its token launch platform pools.trade on Robinhood Chain, which is currently in Beta. The platform does not charge additional issuance fees, retaining only the 0.25% LP fee for the v4 pool. Creators can withdraw 0.05% of the profits, supporting crowdfunding and instant token issuance, and comes with anti-sniping and automatic liquidity reinvestment locking mechanisms. The data on the first day of launch was explosive, with total transaction volume surpassing $150 million, and single-chain V4 transactions surpassing those on Ethereum mainnet. The number of token issuances has exploded, with single-day token issuance exceeding the combined total of several leading launch platforms, and on-chain revenue has already far surpassed that of the Ethereum mainnet. Two meme coins with market caps over one million have already emerged, and the ecosystem is heating up to the max. Uniswap is no longer just a backend DEX infrastructure; it is directly entering the meme traffic launch phase. Previously, it only handled trading, and the token issuance portal was taken over by third-party platforms. Now, by closing the loop and keeping creators and early-stage traders' traffic in its own hands, this is a crucial strategic offensive 📈. The low-fee model has sparked huge controversy. Trader-friendly, but creator dividends have shrunk significantly. Other transmitters generally have a 1% fee, but here only 0.05% is given to the project team. The community is divided into two camps: one side believes that lowering transaction costs benefits ordinary users; On the other hand, they believe that exploiting creators will dampen the willingness of high-quality memes to publish. This directly squeezes the survival space of third-party launchers like Flap and Pons. Uniswap comes with its own moneyGold has surged continuously for several days, with intraday prices breaking through the $4,300 mark, silver surpassing $62, and COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $4,267 (an intraday increase of over 3%).
The direct trigger for this rally was the ADP employment data falling far short of expectations: the US private sector added only 44,000 jobs in July, well below the market forecast of 65,000–75,000. The weak employment data directly dampened rate hike expectations, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall simultaneously, which in turn propelled gold and silver sharply higher.
On the other hand, $BTC remains range-bound near $64,000, with less than a 1% intraday increase, almost unchanged.
This raises a core question: if $BTC is truly the so-called “digital gold,” why did gold surge 3% wildly while $BTC acted as if nothing happened?
In fact, although $BTC and gold maintained a significant positive correlation in the first half of last year, this year they have completely diverged into a negative correlation. Gold has risen 9% year-to-date, while $BTC has fallen 11%. Deutsche Bank analysts bluntly stated that $BTC “no longer possesses the attributes of digital gold,” and Peter Schiff sharply pointed out that the correlation between the two never truly existed.
Market data doesn’t lie—what asset is $BTC actually following now?
Following US stocks? The S&P and Nasdaq are trending upward with volatility, but $BTC refuses to follow.
Following ETF inflows? On Tuesday, net inflows reached $211.5 million, yet the price remains flat.
Following geopolitical developments? Progress in US-Iran talks has elicited a similarly muted market response.
Currently, $BTC’s real state is: supported below but unable to break down, pressured above but unable to rise, stuck range-bound at $64,000 waiting for a true catalyst—whether it’s an interest rate cut, finalized regulatory policies, or major institutional moves. But one thing is certain: it will never blindly follow gold’s rally.
By 2026, the narrative of “digital gold” is becoming increasingly untenable. This is not to deny $BTC’s long-term value, but its fundamental pricing logic has completely diverged from gold: gold trades on interest rate expectations and safe-haven attributes, while $BTC trades on macro liquidity, regulatory environment, and its own cyclical rhythm.
Next time someone tries to fool you with the “digital gold” story, just throw yesterday’s candlestick chart in their face: gold surged 3%, $BTC played dead at 64,000. The market has already given the most truthful answer.
$BTC XAUSNDK #Gold4200BTCStalls #BTCWhyNotRally #Cryptocurrency #Macroeconomics #MarketAnalysis
#DailyOrbit The most common mistake in tonight's market might not be looking in the wrong direction, but losing patience during the day due to a few small candlesticks. By the time real volatility arrives, both the position and mindset are already in turmoil. As of the time of writing, $BTC is around $64,400, $ETH has just returned to $1,900, $SOL is about $73.2, BNB is at $592, and XRP is about $1.05. The total crypto market capitalization has rebounded to $2.29 trillion, but BTC's market share remains at 56.6%, indicating that funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin and a few mainstream coins, and fake coins haven't truly revived. August 7 may still be a daytime delay, but the real wait is at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time. The U.S. will release its July nonfarm payroll report. Last month, only 57,000 new jobs were added, significantly below expectations, and April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. Some institutions now set their July job growth forecast at around 100,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The trouble lies here. If the nonfarm payrolls are too strong, the market will worry that rate hike expectations will continue to heat up, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to push higher, with BTC taking the hit first; Numbers around 100,000 may actually be the most comfortable outcome: the economy hasn't suddenly stalled, and salary pressure hasn't spiraled out of control again; If the data is extremely poor, BTC may not keep rising; it might first trade "policy easing" in the first few minutes, then start worrying about recession. So don't just focus on the news headline tomorrow night. The data is positive, but BTC can't break through $65,000. I won't chase this kind of rise. Conversely, the data is biasedTwo earnings reports caused a divergence in market trends.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another record high, closing up 0.49%.
The Nasdaq Composite ended a four-day winning streak, falling 0.83%.
The S&P 500 was in between: it opened higher but ultimately closed down 0.17%.
Both companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations, yet their stock prices were sold off.
SpaceX, in its first earnings report since going public, beat expectations, but its stock fell 13.61% because the market focused more on the spending pressure from its AI investments.
AMD dropped 7.04% because the market had already priced in an "extremely impressive" performance, not just a strong earnings report.
Funds shifted to other areas of the market:
Shopify rose 16.98% due to its earnings report.
Eli Lilly increased 4.86%.
Disney rose 3.65%.
NVIDIA bucked the chip sector trend, rising 3.43% instead of falling.
The key in today’s market is not to judge whether it’s up or down.
It’s about seeing:
Where funds are withdrawing from.
Where funds are flowing to.
And the reasons behind these moves.
This is the real skill that needs to be trained with real-time market data. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BONK Short Strategy (Currently Highest Win Rate): Wait for a rebound to 0.00000285-0.00000290 with shrinking volume, stop loss above 0.00000300, target first at 0.00000270, if it breaks down, look at 0.00000250-0.00000260. Leverage 2x, position size 1-2%.
Long Strategy (Risky): Wait for two signals: ① Price stabilizes with increased volume in the 0.00000255-0.00000265 range; ② Hacker dump completely ends, Kraken resumes deposits and withdrawals. Entry at 0.00000255-0.00000265, stop loss below 0.00000240, target 0.00000285-0.00000290. Position size ≤1%.
Safest Strategy (Absolutely Wait and See): A coin drained by hackers, a coin warned/suspended by two major exchanges, a coin with network-wide negative fee shorting frenzy—what makes you think this is the bottom now? The results are well protected by you #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 SpaceX's first financial report shows a year-on-year revenue increase of about 92%, but AI-related capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, most of which was spent on AI computing infrastructure. The company plans to expand AI computing power from about 2GW at the end of 2026 to nearly 10GW by the end of 2027, and plans to lease computing power to external customers in the future. Meanwhile, the first lock-up period for the IPO has expired, with over 900 million shares becoming tradable, which has also intensified stock price volatility.
Lately, it increasingly feels like the AI market has entered its second phase.
The first phase was about whoever announced AI investment saw their stock rise; now in the second phase, the market is asking: when will you recoup the hundreds of billions you spent?
AMD, WDC, Sandisk, and even SpaceX all indicate one thing: AI demand is not the problem, but valuations no longer tolerate "close enough."
The companies that can truly weather the cycle are likely those with existing orders and the ability to deliver profits.
#AI #USStocks #NVDA #MRVL #Semiconductors$BONK Five Underlying Currents, All Cutting Retail Investors!
Conspiracy 1: Hacker "Governance Attack" Steals Treasury, Dumps Tokens Openly! On July 6, a hacker directly withdrew 44.26 trillion BONK (about $21.2 million) from the Bonk treasury through a governance proposal. Then, like an assembly line worker, they transferred money daily to Binance and Coinbase—11.86 trillion yesterday, 4 trillion today. The hacker has already liquidated; the last 4 trillion tokens (worth $1.17 million) were all dumped into Coinbase.
Conspiracy 2: Kraken Suspends Deposits and Withdrawals, Upbit Listed as Warning! Kraken exchange has temporarily suspended BONK deposit and withdrawal services. Upbit has listed BONK as a trading warning token, and deposit functions have been stopped. Exchanges are starting to draw clear boundaries.
Conspiracy 3: Funding Rates Are Negative Across the Network, Shorts Are Celebrating! Binance funding rate is -5.30 bps (annualized -58%), OKX even worse at -12.00 bps (annualized -131%). Short positions not only cost nothing but also earn money. Among 23 exchanges across the network, most are in negative funding rate territory.
Conspiracy 4: Open Interest at 57M, Shorts Keep Adding Positions! Total open interest across the network is $57.43M, with Binance alone accounting for $15.34M. Such large open interest and such negative funding rates indicate shorts are continuously adding positions.
Conspiracy 5: Robinhood Chain Narrative Is "Someone Else's Bullish News"! On July 21, Circus Trade launched a launchpad on Robinhood Chain, and BONK's official Twitter retweeted it. But Robinhood Chain uses Uniswap as its native DEX and has nothing to do with BONK. They don't even understand how to ride the hype.The South Korean stock market fell 4.5% in one day, with semiconductors dragging the whole market down.
The South Korean stock market crashed again today, with the KOSPI dropping 4.58% to close at 6296 points, losing over 300 points in a single day.
Foreign investors net sold 3.97 trillion KRW, institutions net sold 235.7 billion KRW, while retail investors alone bought 4.1 trillion KRW, but still couldn't hold up the market. Semiconductors were the hardest hit sector, with SK Hynix dropping 10 points directly, and Samsung Electronics down 6.3%. Overnight, US tech stocks weakened, and foreign investors started selling early in the morning, continuing non-stop after the market opened.
This scene is very familiar: foreign investors run, institutions run, retail investors catch, and after they catch, the market continues to fall the next day. Previously, Goldman Sachs called it cheap, and CITIC said leverage hadn't been cleared yet. Now it seems CITIC's scenario is closer to reality. The retail investor liquidation rate is still between 7% and 8%, far above normal levels. Until leverage is fully reduced, rebounds are easily crushed.
On the other hand, secondary batteries are doing okay, with LG Energy Solution up 2.8%, and POSCO slightly up. Funds have shifted from semiconductors to other sectors. But this gain is negligible compared to the semiconductor losses.
In the short term, South Korea's market will still depend on the mood of the US stock market. If the Nasdaq is unstable, foreign investors won't stop selling. Those wanting to bottom-fish shouldn't rush to enter all at once; first see if the US market is stable tonight, then see if foreign investors continue to sell tomorrow. From a valuation perspective, South Korea is indeed cheap at this level, but cheap assets can get cheaper, especially before the chip structure stabilizes.Intraday Gold Fourth Dan
Entered at 4279.48, exited at 4260.85, Luodai 18.63 points!
Harvested 3726 dollars
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ 🔸HyperEVM's USDC Explodes +US$5.6 Billion in a Year Nearly Matching Ethereum. $ETH
USDC capitalization growth per chain in the past year: Ethereum still leads with +US$7.5 billion, but HyperEVM (Hyperliquid's chain) closely follows with +US$5.6 billion, far surpassing Base which only has +US$373 million.
The trigger: On June 20, 2026, Hyperliquid $HYPE officially dissolved their own native stablecoin ($USDH) and fully consolidated into USDC, with a single Circle transfer to a Coinbase-related address moving over US$4 billion USDC to HyperEVM at once—one of the largest stablecoin transfers ever recorded.
What’s unique about this deal: USDC on Hyperliquid is now designated as an "Aligned Quote Asset," where Circle and Coinbase are required to share ~90% of the T-bill yield reserve back to Hyperliquid, an economic model that reverses the conventional stablecoin operation where usually the entire yield reserve is controlled by the issuer.
🔸What’s the Impact on the Crypto Market?
This shows crypto liquidity is increasingly concentrated on on-chain venues with real trading activity (Hyperliquid's perp open interest is already above US$10 billion), not just general chains.
This revenue share model also has the potential to set a precedent for other major venues to demand similar terms from stablecoin issuers, which could change the economics of the entire stablecoin industry going forward.
#HYPEStressTest #HyperliquidPayout $SKHYNIX US memory sector is expected to continue a sharp decline before the market opens!
The three giants Micron, Hynix, and SanDisk are very likely to fall further.
Previously marked resistance level at 1211, yesterday the market surged to 1196, then quickly retreated near the resistance, the entire memory sector is weakening in sync.
US stock market is about to open, the three major memory stocks' rebound attempts are weak; aggressive traders can consider entering with light positions at the current level, while conservative ones can wait for a higher rebound.
Sister Shan's target price is 1000🔥🔥🔥Analyzing SHOPUSDT (such as the 25x leverage perpetual contract recently launched on Bybit), its core characteristics are high elasticity and strong volatility. In the early stages of a new coin listing, liquidity often experiences a vacuum, which can easily trigger intense long and short liquidations. For short-term traders, this is an excellent hunting ground to capture micro price differences and sentiment premiums; however, due to the lack of solid fundamental consensus, blindly chasing highs or heavy positions can easily encounter liquidity risks. Strict risk control and quick entry and exit are essential. $SHOP Should you buy gold at $4270?
The most direct trigger yesterday was the preliminary agreement between Iran and Oman on the shipping corridor, with Trump stating the negotiations are "progressing smoothly," causing oil prices to plummet over 5% in a single day.
Oil prices fall, inflation expectations drop, rate cut probability rises, the dollar weakens — gold takes off immediately.
At first glance: concentrated positive news bombardment, price stubbornly high.
Yesterday's single-day increase was nearly 5%, jumping directly from 4077 to over 4270, the largest single-day gain in recent months. After peaking at 4304 today, it retreated and is currently consolidating around 4260. Gold has broken through the upper boundary of the past 6 weeks' consolidation range (4180-4225 resistance zone) and stood above the 50-day moving average, signaling a structural change and confirming a bottom reversal.
First: Progress in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to crash and gold to surge.
The most direct trigger yesterday was the preliminary agreement between Iran and Oman on the shipping corridor, with Trump stating the negotiations are "progressing smoothly," causing oil prices to plummet over 5% in a single day.
Oil prices fall, inflation expectations drop, rate cut probability rises, the dollar weakens — gold takes off immediately. The logic chain is as clear as a textbook.
But the question is: how fragile is this positive news? Any reversal in Hormuz or any rebound in oil prices could wipe out half of yesterday's gains. Smooth negotiations are positive, but a breakdown would be an even bigger positive.
Second: ADP is ridiculously weak; non-farm payrolls are the real judge.
July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, far below the expected 70,000. The labor market cooling signal is clear, and the market directly interprets this as "the Fed can cut rates."
But Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real judge. ADP and non-farm often diverge. If Friday's non-farm data contradicts expectations (e.g., far exceeding forecasts), gold might return to where it started.
Third: Central bank gold buying is the strongest support for gold.
In Q2, global central banks net purchased about 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year surge of 62%, marking a record-strong quarter. South Korea resumed gold purchases after 13 years, and China continues to increase holdings.
This is the core long-term narrative supporting gold: de-dollarization is not just a slogan; real gold is being bought.
However, this round of gains is more driven by short covering rather than genuine buying continuation. Breaking news! Iran-Oman navigation agreement is landing, marking a real turning point in this round of geopolitical market trends
#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
From my long experience in trading, the deepest insight is: geopolitical markets always trade on "expectations," not on "facts."
Recently, the entire network has been buzzing with news about the preliminary consensus on Iran-Oman navigation, and many people blindly short oil prices and expect supply and demand to loosen.
But I want to say sincerely: the key point in the current market game is no longer the news itself, but the actual rate of implementation.
What level is the Strait of Hormuz?
It is the lifeline of global crude oil transportation and the biggest source of geopolitical risk disturbing the market this year. Previously, oil prices remained firm and market risk premiums stayed high essentially because the shipping lanes were unstable and the situation was volatile.
Now that the navigation agreement is close to being finalized, the logic changes dramatically:
If the formal agreement is confirmed and shipping returns to normal, it means the Middle East's phase of risk aversion sentiment will completely subside.
This is the biggest variable for the market going forward:
1. Oil prices will be the first to come under pressure and fall back, with geopolitical risk premiums quickly clearing out;
2. Global risk market sentiment will warm up, safe-haven assets will cool down, and risk assets will enter a recovery window;
3. The expectation gap in the shipping and energy industry chains will be repriced.
A common pitfall for many retail investors is reacting only after seeing the news, unaware that the major players have long been trading on expectations in advance.
My trading habit has always been clear: when geopolitics are uncertain, contract the pace and reduce positions; when geopolitics are settled, follow the trend and seize certainty.
During turbulent times, any rally can be crushed by sudden news, so I don’t take aggressive positions; but once such a key navigation agreement lands, it signifies the end of a phase of chaos, the market returns to normal fundamental logic, and trading pace can clearly open up.
In summary, the core judgment: the biggest beneficiary of this round of events is not the crude oil short, but the repair of overall risk sentiment. Rather than focusing on oil price fluctuations, I will focus more on whether market risk aversion sentiment has completely subsided, as this is the core key affecting all markets.
Markets never rely on speculation but on the advance judgment of event logic.
$CL This whale, which once topped Hyperliquid with $920 million in short positions, is continuously increasing its short positions on MU, as if the size of the chips is its true belief. Abraxas Capital's main address recently increased its holdings in MU short positions by 536.66 units, with the current MU short position size expanding to about $4.917 million, and the average position price at about $879.91. Compared to the average opening price, MU's current price is about $855.60, which is below the cost of holding a position. On paper, this short position has entered a floating profit state—compared to the previous situation on August 5, when MU was about $884 and the position was slightly at a loss, the trend has reversed. Based on historical records, Abraxas Capital has repeatedly engaged in swing trading on MU short positions: on August 4, it reduced its holdings by about 597 MU short positions to take profits of approximately $693,000, then two days later increased by 650.50 short positions, indicating it was not a single bet but repeatedly operating within MU's price range. From an overall strategy perspective, this address uses short selling as its core tactic. The total scale of multi-currency short positions once reached $920 million, with funding fee settlement alone earning about $33.83 million, and a full-cycle profit of $301 million. Its profit model relies on position size, funding rate yields, and time structure, rather than simply betting on direction. MU's current price is below its latest average short position opening price. This whale, accustomed to making money through scale, may have entered its most familiar rhythm. $#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk's earnings report blew my mind 🤯
Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, while the market expected around 8.6 billion; adjusted EPS was 39.25, beating the expected 34.37—completely crushing it. Gross margin was 84.6%, data center revenue soared 1298% YoY, AI is truly a data-hungry beast that can really make money.
Even more impressive, the board just approved an additional $14 billion buyback, pushing the remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. Profit → buyback → share reduction → even more explosive EPS, sound familiar? Like Bitcoin miners in a bull market using profits to buy machines, here they use profits to buy their own stock—different methods, same effect.
But after-hours the stock dropped over 10%... The reason is simple: next quarter's revenue guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, below the market expectation of 11.16 billion. "Beating expectations" is no longer enough; the market demands "guidance that also beats expectations." Missing that mark is a harsh lesson.
So don't just get excited about the NAND price cycle; AI storage demand is truly maxing out capacity, but valuation expectations have also been pushed to the ceiling. The lesson from earnings season is always: buy the hype, sell the facts—don't rush in at every peak when good news is already priced in. 📉 Bearish Logic: Is the Reason for Shorting Really Valid?
From the bearish perspective, there are indeed reasonable grounds for shorting at present.
Core Negative Factor — No New Demand: Demand/issuance ratio is -5.43, with newly minted $BTC far exceeding new capital inflow. Although coin age net flow is negative (supply contraction), it is merely a stock game with no incremental funds, so the price will eventually not hold.
Fed Rate Hike Shadow: The 9:3 split vote means the probability of a rate hike cannot be ignored. Inflation remains high; if data exceeds expectations and a rate hike occurs, risk assets will come under pressure.
Technical Weakness: Mitrade analysis points out that 64,590 itself is resistance, and RSI below 50 indicates weak momentum. Bollinger Bands are narrowing signaling an imminent reversal, with bears expecting a downward direction.
Market Sentiment Extremely Fearful: Panic index at 25, retail investors are not entering; without FOMO, there is no bull market. Coinbase Premium is negative, and U.S. institutions are not buying.
Supply-side Risks: Ancient whales awakening, 3-7 year old coins continuously transferring to Coinbase; mining company MARA transferring 6,000 coins. Increased supply of old coins + weak demand historically leads to sideways or downward price movement.
Bearish Targets: First support at 63,800; if broken, look to 62,000; if broken again, look to 60,000; extreme target at 52,900 (already realized price).
But bears need to be cautious: whales’ total holdings continue to increase, ETFs have continuous inflows, and miner selling pressure is easing, all limiting downside space. Bears believe these are just "support" rather than "push-ups," so short-term is expected to be mainly sideways or mild decline.
$BTC #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ $BRKB How will the dog whales cut next?
Short term: Most likely to fluctuate between 506-530. The August 8 earnings report is the biggest variable—cash reserves exceeding expectations → price surge; cash reserves declining but heavy buying → possibly even more price surge; Buffett bearish on the market → price crash.
Mid term: Berkshire is a typical value investment target with a Beta of only 0.6. BRKBUSDT is suitable for long-term allocation, not for short-term high-frequency trading.
Binance, Bybit, Bitget, MEXC, BitMart, OKX, and Huobi—the seven major exchanges gather. The more exchanges involved, the better the liquidity, but short-term volatility will also be amplified.
A heartfelt last word:
BRKB is at 523 today, with a 30-dollar price difference across exchanges, new contracts just launched, and Buffett's earnings countdown—all three factors converging. BRKB is the blue chip of blue chips, but BRKBUSDT is a toy for dog whales to draw K-lines. At 523, bulls fear the earnings report bombshell crashing it to 500, bears fear Buffett pulling a big move to pump it up. Control your hands, wait for the earnings report on August 8 to land before making a move! Remember, surviving long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!Mining revenue is 24 million, but interest payments are 66 million. How does this add up?
Last night, a US-listed mining company released its financial report, and some numbers together look quite surreal.
Cipher Digital sold 1,619 Bitcoin this quarter, receiving $123.4 million, and recorded a book loss of $47.7 million. After selling, the company still holds 646 coins, worth about $37.8 million at current prices. In other words, the amount sold is more than two and a half times its entire current inventory. Basically, the assets have been almost cleared out.
But the real sting isn’t the act of selling coins, it’s two other lines in the financial report.
This quarter, its mining revenue was $24.8 million, while interest expenses for the same period were $66.7 million, a ratio of about 2.7 to 1.
Put simply, the mining rigs have been running for three months, but the coins mined converted to cash can’t even cover a fraction of the interest. For every dollar mined, $2.70 must be paid back. The net loss in Q2 was $23.5 million, and mining revenue shrank by nearly half compared to $43.6 million in the same period last year.
This accounting is actually easy to understand. The cost structure of mining companies is fixed: machines were bought with loans in previous years, electricity bills are paid by contract, and debt interest must be paid in full. Revenue, however, is completely variable, depending on coin prices and network hash rate competition. After the halving, the coins mined per unit of hash rate decreased, and the coin price has been flat around $64,000 for a long time. The squeeze from both ends broke the middle.
This model worked during the bull market. Borrow money to expand capacity, mine more coins, coin prices rise, cover interest and principal, and the rest is profit. The whole logic depends on the coin price rising. Once the price stagnates, interest turns from an accelerator into a slow knife, cutting a little every month.
The 1,619 coins Cipher sold, frankly, is not a bearish bet but a sign of running out of cash to pay bills.
Interestingly, Cipher is not alone in making such moves recently. Strategy plans to sell up to $5 billion worth of Bitcoin according to its capital plan, although Saylor claims the company remains over-collateralized even if prices fall to $5,000. Sequans cleared 344 coins in Q2, effectively exiting its Bitcoin treasury strategy. Canaan liquidated $130 million in digital assets to repurchase stock. American Bitcoin, owned by the Trump family, has lost money for three consecutive quarters, with its stock price down about 95% from its peak, forced to consolidate shares in July just to maintain listing status.
While institutions are often said to be buying, the real picture recently is that some institutions are quietly moving out.
The industry is also diverging. Some mining companies have converted their racks into AI data centers over the past two years, renting hash power to companies training models, with contract-based income unaffected by coin prices, resulting in steadier cash flow. Others are still clinging to pure mining, betting on price recovery. Cipher belongs to the latter; the 646 coins left on its books are its last chips.
Looking at the market, all this is happening while Bitcoin remains stuck near $64,000, implied volatility stays low, and the market barely reacts to such news. Good news doesn’t push prices up, bad news doesn’t push them down, and this has lasted for some time.
I’ve been thinking about one question. The mining company crashes in 2022 were because coin prices dropped 70% in a year, basically killed by the market. This time is different: prices haven’t collapsed, just stagnated, yet mining companies are already bleeding. This suggests the industry’s cost line may have quietly risen above the current price.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
What do you think? Will the next phase be a reshuffle completed by mining companies continuing to sell coins to clear out, or will more people convert machines to run AI and completely say goodbye to mining as a business? BTC· Relative strength of altcoins weakening against ETH, SPCX attempts a short-term downward rebound within a channel. Is the asset rebound ahead of the end of the rebound a schedule a gap in expectations or a liquidity incentive? The key facts confirmed in the original text are as follows. After dropping from around 130 to 115, the SPCX is currently trading around 116. The first 20% token unlock scheduled for the 6th has been confirmed, and foreign media have reported that a specific institution has set a target price between 200 and 800. However, the source of this target price and the exact name of the institution have not been verified in the original text. The essence of this incident is not a price adjustment of a single altcoin stock, but rather an event-driven rebound that occurred during a phase of weakening relative strength for altcoins. While BTC and ETH remained sideways or slightly flat, high-beta altcoins like SPCX experienced a stronger decline, plunging from 130 to 115. This can be interpreted as a result of a chain reaction of position liquidations during periods when risk appetite contracts. From the perspective of market structure, 116 supports theActually, doing contracts is quite simple: choose a high and low range, set a take-profit target for yourself.
For example, start with 100U at 5X leverage, take profit at 2-3%. On the daily chart, it's basically impossible to blow up, right?
With such a simple logic, damn, I go all in with high leverage every day. If the direction is wrong, you hit your stop loss; if the direction is right, damn, you still hit your stop loss. In the end, I find my principal getting smaller and smaller, not making money but calculating how to break even!😅😅😅$WDC This quarter's revenue is $3.747 billion, expected $3.692 billion
Next quarter guidance midpoint is $4.1 billion, expected $4.02 billion
Why did Western Digital plunge 20% despite better-than-expected earnings?
1. This quarter exceeded all analyst expectations, but did not break through the most optimistic bullish ceiling
2. The guidance is only slightly above expectations, the tone on the call was cautious, and there was no upward revision of long-term targets
3. The previously estimated huge increase has already been priced in by the market. ## DePIN: The Sector Where the Charts Lie and the Revenue Doesn't
While headlines call DePIN dead after an 83% market cap collapse from its 2024 peak, usage tells a different story. Akash ($AKT) posted 428% usage growth, active DePIN projects grew from 650 to over 1,170, and aggregate network revenue hit roughly $150M in a single month, this is a rare sector where token price and real adoption have decoupled.
The catalyst is AI compute demand. GPU-hungry AI workloads are pulling capital toward decentralized infrastructure, with Render, Akash, and Aethir all posting elevated utilization tied to this demand. Compute leads: $RENDER, $AKT, $TAO, $IO, $AETHIR. Storage: $FIL, $AR. Wireless: $HNT, with Helium crossing 900,000 active hotspots. Add $ICP, $GRASS, and $HONEY-adjacent bandwidth plays rounding out the map.
Compared objectively: $TAO leads in mindshare and AI-native design, $RENDER has the clearest B2B revenue model, $AKT wins on utilization, while $HNT proves DePIN can build actual consumer subscriptions.
Risks are real, heavy dilution, unproven unit economics, and regulatory ambiguity around physical infrastructure ownership. But this may be the first crypto sector where you can measure product-market fit outside the token chart entirely.
Is DePIN's revenue growth enough to justify a re-rating, or will token dilution keep dragging prices down regardless of usage?"Major Bank Cuts IBIT by 94%, Is It Really Fleeing BTC for ETH?"
Italy's major bank cut 94% of IBIT and tripled its staked ETH position.
At first glance: "Are institutions shifting from BTC to ETH?"
Not so fast to conclude. Because in the latest 13F,
Intesa Sanpaolo cut its IBIT spot position to about $1.36 million,
but it still holds about $67.6 million in ARKB.
In other words: the BTC ETF long position remains close to $69 million.
While the staked ETH ETF is only about $7.1 million.
So what really happened is not:
BTC → ETH full switch.
It's more like: **institutions are moving from "buying Crypto" to "how to allocate Crypto."**
BTC continues as the core position.
ETH, due to added staking yields,
starts to have a different kind of appeal.
Even more interestingly: this bank also added 500,000 IBIT Put options.
This shows it is not simply bearish on BTC,
but engaging in more proactive risk management.
The real takeaway from this news is not "IBIT cut by 94%."
It should be:
**Traditional institutions have begun to include BTC, staked ETH, and options within the same asset allocation framework.**
This is more important than just "institutions buying coins."
One more reminder:
The 13F is a snapshot of holdings as of June 30 quarter-end,
not trades that just happened today.
$BTC $ETH #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH At 3 a.m., I stared at the open interest curve of perpetual contracts and suddenly felt it was like a taut bowstring. The market was unusually quiet, but the long positions quietly piling up in derivatives accounts were already speaking up for everyone. Guess what happens: when everyone is staring at the same target price, will the price still obediently move toward that level? I am reflecting on a phenomenon. Recently, many friends have been sharing various year-end target prices, from BTC to SOL, from OKB to BNB, with each number getting more beautiful than the last. But what matters more is how much of these optimistic expectations have already been priced in in advance. The funding rate for perpetual contracts has remained positive for several consecutive days, indicating that leveraged bulls have an absolute advantage in the market. At times like this, I actually start checking whether the cushion cushion in my position is thick enough. Looking back at the fundamentals of these stocks, each has its own story. BTC's halving effect and continued ETF inflows are hard logic. ETH has expectations of ecosystem recovery after the Cancun upgrade, and SOL has attracted plenty of attention during the meme season. OKB and BNB closely follow the exchange's platform coin buyback logic. None of this is baseless, but precisely because the logic is so smooth, almost no one in the market is willing to price it as "below expectations." I noticed a signal that was being ignored. In the derivatives market, when everyone is crowded on the same side, prices often move not toward consensus, but rather toward the direction that causes the most pain. Currently, on the liquidation map, BTC has accumulated a large number of long positions below 68,000. If it falls below this level, it could trigger a chain liquidation, and then a heavy rebound may occurAfter Western Union launched Stablecard, stablecoin payments finally moved beyond the "faster on-chain transfers" niche and started to be applied to everyday spending and cash withdrawals.
The first batch launched in 37 markets, with plans to expand to over 60 by the end of the year. Counting 60 markets, the coverage still needs to grow by 62%—the step has been taken, but the road is still long.
After users receive Western Union remittances, they can directly deposit the money into their USDPT wallet without rushing to convert it into local currency; then they can spend with the Visa card at physical stores, online shops, and ATMs, with Apple Pay and Google Pay also supported.
The most valuable point here is that it doesn't force global merchants to individually recognize USDPT.
Users hold stablecoins deployed on Solana, while merchants still operate on Visa’s existing network, receiving familiar fiat settlements without needing to set up wallets or bear the risks of stablecoin price volatility and compliance. Solana is hidden at the bottom layer of the payment process: on-chain handles storing and transferring dollars, Visa ensures merchants get paid.
However, Stablecard is neither a bank account nor a regular prepaid card. Users must deposit USDPT into an associated non-custodial wallet as collateral, and the spending limit equals the collateral amount; the balance does not earn interest and is not covered by FDIC deposit insurance.
The product is launched, but on-chain scale is still very early.
As of August 3, the total stablecoin supply on Solana was about $15.6 billion, with USDC around $6.9 billion and USDT about $3.4 billion, together accounting for approximately 66%. Western Union’s USDPT supply is only about $7 million, about 0.045% of the entire Solana stablecoin market.
To be blunt, Western Union holds a huge remittance network but has not yet truly converted these users into on-chain funds.
Visa’s data also shows what stage this track is at. In 2025, stablecoin-linked card transaction volume is expected to be about $5.2 billion, a 319% year-over-year increase; compared to Visa’s total annual payment volume of $14.2 trillion, this is only about 0.04%.
Growth is real, but the scale is really small.
For SOL, the value of this kind of cooperation is not in issuing another stablecoin, but whether it can complete the full loop of "remittance arrival—on-chain holding—Visa spending—local cash withdrawal." Unlike transfers between exchanges, this money stays on-chain longer and is closer to real payment needs.
From here on, just watch three data sets: whether USDPT supply can grow from $7 million to $100 million; whether monthly active wallets increase after expanding to 37 markets; and whether Visa spending can push Solana stablecoin total volume to new highs.
Western Union has connected the entry point; the real test is whether users are willing to keep remittances on-chain.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 🏛️ Macro Chessboard: The Tug of War Between the Federal Reserve and Geopolitics
$BTC cannot escape the macro environment, with current mixed positive and negative factors.
Federal Reserve: The July FOMC meeting saw a rare 9:3 split, with 3 votes opposing holding steady and leaning toward a rate hike. Governor Cook warned that if inflation does not fall, she supports further rate increases. Crypto assets are highly sensitive to interest rates, and rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite. However, she also mentioned that tariff reductions and falling oil prices may ease inflation.
Geopolitics: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire drove oil prices to plummet, easing inflation concerns and restoring risk appetite. Theoretically positive for BTC, but BTC did not follow the US stock market rally (S&P 500 rose 3.12% monthly), showing a rare divergence.
Regulation: The US "Clear Act" Senate vote is scheduled for August 7, with no new negative policy developments, but stablecoin provisions remain contentious. China continues strict regulation of virtual currencies, restricting some capital inflows.
Traditional Finance Siphoning: AI tech stocks are drawing massive funds, stablecoin supply is contracting, weakening BTC's correlation with tech stocks, and BTC is being redefined as a store of value rather than a high-growth asset.
Positives: Geopolitical easing, falling oil prices, continued ETF inflows, clearer regulation.
Negatives: Federal Reserve rate hike shadow, lack of new demand, AI siphoning effect, extreme market fear (fear index 25).
Conclusion: The macro environment is balanced between bulls and bears. For $BTC to sustain a rebound, it must simultaneously meet: ETF inflows + declining US Treasury yields + no Fed rate hikes. The first two are in place; the third remains uncertain. $BTC #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Tell her to work hard #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ ⚡ Derivatives Battlefield: Long and Short Clash Imminent
Futures and options are the main arenas of covert battles, with data revealing a bloody struggle.
Futures OI: Total open interest across the network is about $48 billion, with CME single-day surge of 6.82% to 102,840 $BTC, institutions aggressively building positions. The long-short ratio appears balanced at 50.9% vs 49.1%, but institutional and retail holdings diverge.
Funding Rate: 0.0065%, neutral to slightly bullish but not overheated. Historical pattern: during negative funding rate periods, 30-day returns average 11.5%, currently in a similar phase.
Liquidation Data (24h): Total network liquidations $257 million, with shorts at $166 million and longs only $91.21 million. $BTC short liquidations at $48 million, 7 times that of longs! Shorts are being continuously squeezed.
Liquidation Clusters:
🔥 Around 65,000: Large short stop-loss orders, a breakout would trigger a short squeeze.
🔥 Around 63,800: Large long stop-loss orders, a breakdown would cause a stampede.
BTC is trapped between these two, direction depends on which triggers first.
Options Market: Open interest in calls at 254,394 $BTC vs puts at 156,227 (62:38 lead), max pain point around $80,000, options traders betting on long-term upside.
Bullish Factors: Short liquidations far exceed longs, call options dominate, OI rising while funding rate stable (sign of accumulation phase).
Bearish Factors: High OI implies risk of a long-short clash, two dense liquidation zones act like landmines.
Conclusion: Derivatives lean bullish, but short-term faces a "minefield" at 65K/63.8K; whichever breaks first will decide the direction. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 Why is the market focusing on $SKYAI now? It's not because the name is new, but because it happens to be at the "most emotionally ignitable" position.
The 24h contract trading volume has already reached 111.16M USDT, with an open interest of 184,587,428 SKYAI still not closed, and the funding rate hanging at +0.0237%. The price is rising, and the open interest is holding up, indicating a significant amount of contract funds chasing in.
I haven't opened a position; it's hard to see the spot support for this token clearly, and the contracts are already crowded, so the risk-reward ratio isn't sufficient. If I were to trade, I would only wait for a sharp sell-off to see if anyone picks it back up, not chasing the highs.
Retail traders are racing on speed, while market makers are collecting tolls. $SKYAI2026.08.06 Midday Crypto News Full Version #SanDisk Earnings Exceed Expectations, Adds $14 Billion Buyback Authorization @币圈超短王马大帅
1. Overall Market Situation (As of August 6, 12:30)
1. Total crypto market cap is $2.29 trillion, 24h increase +0.9%, spot trading volume $57 billion, market fluctuates and recovers, BTC strong, altcoins show clear divergence
2. BTC Bitcoin: Current price $64,516, 24H +0.3%
Short-term support at 63,800, first resistance 64,800, strong resistance 67,000–68,000; after geopolitical risk cools down, relying on support for short squeeze rebound, Bitcoin market dominance continues rising at 56.5%
3. ETH Ethereum: Current price $1,897, 24H +1.25%, performance stronger than BTC
Support at 1,850, resistance at 1,920, on-chain lending and DeFi sector movements drive independent buying, ending long-term weak correlated trend
4. Mainstream altcoins diverge
Strengthening: SOL, TRX, BNB; Weakening: XRP, ADA, DOGE, LINK overall weak; DeFi sector intraday drop up to 38.7%, stablecoin fund flow shrinks by 5%, capital concentrates into BTC and ETH core coins
5. Market sentiment: Fear & Greed Index slightly recovers, moving away from extreme fear zone, leaning towards cautious observation
2. Total Liquidation Data Across All Contracts (24h)
Total contract liquidation amount $235 million, mainly short stop-loss liquidations
• Short liquidations $142 million, long liquidations $93 million, this rebound driven by concentrated short covering
• BTC contract liquidations about $41 million, ETH contract liquidations $38 million, no ultra-large single liquidation, mainly small to medium contract stop-loss concentration
• Top exchanges account for over half of liquidations, short-term contract fund competition intensifies
3. Major Macroeconomic News
1. US-UK Joint Crypto Regulatory Coordination Implemented (Core Policy)
US and UK Treasury issued joint statement unifying stablecoin regulatory framework and tokenized finance standards, aligning with US GENIUS Stablecoin Act, forming medium to long-term benefits for compliant institutional capital entry; no strong short-term regulatory negatives, easing market policy anxiety.
2. Geopolitical positive supports market
US delays military strike on Iran, Strait of Hormuz situation eases, safe-haven funds flee gold, some flow into crypto for short-term risk asset play, core reason for BTC stabilization and rebound.
3. Fed rate cut expectations remain unchanged
CME rate futures price 87.5% chance of September cut, dovish official remarks continue, US bond yields slightly down, Nasdaq rises, overall risk asset environment warms.
4. US CLARITY crypto bill voting delayed again
Opposition citing banking operational risks, bill passage probability down to 31%, compliance legislation delayed, short-term weakens institutional long-term layout expectations but avoids short-term strong regulatory crackdown.
4. Industry Hotspot Updates
1. Uniswap launches on-chain lending product "Earn"
Leading DEX officially enters lending business, Ethereum on-chain activity rises, directly boosting ETH short-term strength, Layer2 ecosystem activity also warms.
2. India updates crypto tax rules
Adopts OECD global crypto asset tax reporting framework, domestic exchanges forced to report user crypto trading profits, Southeast Asian retail compliance costs rise, pressure on local coins increases.
3. Hong Kong stablecoin license rumors clarified
Market rumors of second batch of stablecoin licenses issued during National Day denied by HKMA, focusing only on existing two licensed institutions' operational testing, no new license plans.
4. Robinhood UK FCA crypto qualification stable operation, European and American retail trading channels continue expanding.
5. Core Market Summary & Observation Points
1. Market logic: geopolitical easing + short covering + rate cut expectations triple support rebound, but overall volume not expanding, a battle of existing funds, not suitable for chasing highs;
2. ETH sees phase structural strengthening, short-term cost-performance better than Bitcoin, altcoin rotation very fast, DeFi sector pullback to avoid;
3. Key time window: US CPI inflation data this week directly changes Fed rate cut expectations, deciding whether this rebound can continue; Ford is also booming #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ $SNDK SanDisk released its Q4 earnings last night: revenue surged 372%, $14 billion buyback
SanDisk expects next quarter revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, nearly 5.5% below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion.
— SanDisk gave everything it could, yet the stock still crashed
This is not SanDisk's fault; it's the fate of all stocks hyped up by the AI story, which sooner or later must face a correction.
SanDisk expects next quarter revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, nearly 5.5% below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion.
Last night SanDisk released Q4 earnings—revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS $39.25, compared to $0.29 a year ago, a 135-fold increase. Gross margin 84.6%, up from 26.2% a year ago, tripled.
The board made a bold move: an additional $14 billion buyback, with remaining buyback authorization totaling $15.5 billion.
"This earnings report is explosive! Buy it!"
Woke up to SanDisk plunging after hours.
Completely stunned.
"No, with such great results, why?"
Why? Because you're still looking at this market with old perspectives.
After the US market closed on August 5, SanDisk and Western Digital both released earnings.
SanDisk's data center business—revenue $2.98 billion, up 1298%. You read that right, 1298%, not 12.98%.
Edge computing $5.43 billion, up 392%. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175%.
Eight NBM long-term agreements, guaranteed minimum revenue $93.9 billion, customer default protection $16.5 billion. Over half of 2027 fiscal year capacity locked in advance, two-thirds of 2028 fiscal year already arranged.
CEO said on the call: "AI storage demand growth has already exceeded our supply capacity, and our largest customer is adding orders after signing."
Capacity is sold out, yet customers keep adding orders.
In any normal market, wouldn't this stock skyrocket?
But the market thinks otherwise.
EPS guidance $44 to $46, market expectation $45.58—just at the lower edge of expectations.
Gross margin guidance 83% to 85%, basically flat compared to this quarter's 84.6%, showing signs of peaking.
The market only recognizes one logic: you did well in the past, but can you do better in the future?
SanDisk's answer: yes, but not as well as you think.
After a 468% stock price increase, beating earnings expectations is no longer enough.
This year, SanDisk's stock price has nearly quintupled, while the S&P 500 has only risen 13%.
A 468% increase has already priced in the "AI storage demand explosion" story.
Now the market doesn't want to know "how much you earned"—it wants to know "how much more you can earn."
A slightly weaker guidance, and the stock crashes.
Western Digital also released earnings the same day—revenue $3.75 billion beat expectations, EPS $3.56 beat expectations, guidance also beat expectations.
Result? After-hours drop of 11%.
Both stocks crashed together.
What does this mean?
It means it's not just SanDisk's problem—it's the entire storage sector being repriced by the market.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and many institutions gave "strong buy" ratings, average target price $2400. But the stock has dropped 40% from its June high.
Expectations were too high, so high that even earnings beats couldn't satisfy.
The market isn't trading what you did.
It's trading what you can still do.
SanDisk gave everything it could: explosive earnings, $14 billion buyback, 8 long-term contracts locking in the next four years, $93.9 billion guaranteed minimum revenue.
But the market only focuses on one sentence: next quarter guidance is slightly weak.
So 8% vanished.
This is not SanDisk's fault; it's the fate of all stocks hyped up by the AI story, which sooner or later must face a correction.
SanDisk expects next quarter revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, nearly 5.5% below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion.
Is the market too harsh, or is the valuation really too expensive?TETHER POSTS $1.5B PROFIT AS CORPORATE CAPITAL FLOWS EXPAND BITCOIN TREASURY ALLOCATIONS 📈
Latest financial attestations confirm Tether generated $1.5 billion in Q2 net profit, expanding its reserve surplus to $4.11 billion. Alongside operating profitability, the stablecoin issuer accumulated approximately 1,800 BTC into its reserve asset portfolio. This consistent accumulation strategy reinforces the company's proactive approach to strengthening its corporate balance sheet.
Concurrently, institutional Bitcoin accumulation across public corporations continues at a steady pace. The Smarter Web Company announced acquiring an additional 11.89 BTC for approximately £559,493, elevating total treasury holdings to 2,712 BTC. Asset manager Strive also reported purchasing 20 BTC at an average price of $63,191 per BTC, reaching a milestone of 20,020 BTC valued at approximately $1.26 billion.
Addressing market observations, Michael Saylor reiterated his personal conviction, stating he has never sold or transferred a single satoshi of his personal holdings. He clarified the distinction between long-term personal asset accumulation and flexible corporate treasury management at Strategy. Maintaining robust balance sheets ensures the market effectively absorbs institutional capital flows.
In your opinion, will continuous Bitcoin accumulation by major corporations establish a new standard for corporate treasury management strategies?
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR).$BTC $BICO $BCH Core Risk Warnings
1. 65,000 is the current critical watershed: a valid breakthrough targets 65,800-66,200 or even 68,000-70,000; failure to sustain the rally may lead to a retest of 64,000 or even 63,200
2. Repeated geopolitical news is the biggest uncertainty: the US and Iran each have conflicting statements, and any statement from either side could trigger severe volatility
3. Fed hawkishness expands + rate hike expectations rise: the large-scale bearish pattern has not fundamentally reversed. If Fed officials further release hawkish signals, it may directly suppress rebound space
4. The rebound lacks confirmation from incremental funds: demand/issuance ratio remains negative, and new demand has yet to appear
5. The 58,000-59,000 range is the next effective support: if multiple supports fail, deeper correction risks should be monitored $BTC $ETH $SNDK #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 Bitcoin trades near $64,800 as U.S. equities print fresh records, yet spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted zero outflow days in August and absorbed more than $600 million in net inflows over the past three sessions.
What happened is straightforward: institutional demand through ETFs continues to offset long-term holder selling of over 11,500 BTC early in the month. Ethereum has led the relative recovery, trading near $1,900, while Solana, XRP, BNB, and Chainlink remain range-bound. Layer-2 names such as Arbitrum and Optimism, along with DeFi tokens like Aave and Injective, show muted volume, and RWA-focused assets including Ondo have yet to attract meaningful rotation.
This matters because the market is no longer driven by retail leverage or broad risk-on sentiment. ETF absorption is providing a measurable floor, but liquidity remains thin and the Fed’s recent hold left September policy uncertain. The opportunity is that sustained institutional flows could eventually force a break above $65,000 if selling pressure continues to be absorbed. The risk is that crypto stays decoupled from equity strength until a clearer regulatory or macro catalyst arrives, leaving altcoins vulnerable to further consolidation.
Watch whether the current ETF bid proves durable enough to shift market structure, or simply delays the next test of lower support.
Is this institutional support building a genuine base, or merely masking the absence of broader participation?Many retail investors think that a lack of market movement means a "dead calm," but they fail to see the astonishing institutional chip exchanges in the backend data.
Combining the current order book depth and institutional capital flows in US and Hong Kong stocks, these 3 hidden data truths must be clearly understood:
1. $BTC: Premium indicator inversion and "silent absorption"
The Coinbase Institutional Premium Index has repeatedly shown extreme negative values at the lower end of the liquidation range before quickly retracting. What does this mean? US-compliant institutions are quietly buying spot during the thinnest liquidity periods by leveraging OTC selling pressure and derivatives liquidation. Retail investors hand over chips, while big players silently lock positions.
2. $ETH: L2 protocol yields and public chain staking "lock-up deadlock"
Don’t just focus on the ETH to BTC exchange rate trend. In fact, the total staking on Ethereum’s on-chain Beacon Chain is still hitting all-time highs, with over 28% of liquidity locked up. The low rates on perpetual contracts only indicate that leveraged players are retreating, while the underlying spot deflation and tightening structure are even stronger than the last bull market.
3. $BNB: The "ecosystem cash flow" behind its high resistance to decline
Amid liquidity squeezes on mainstream altcoins, BNB still maintains very high relative strength. The reason is simple: during volatile market periods, the market severely lacks certainty, and BNB, relying on platform Launchpool staking and fee burns, has become one of the few defensive tokens on the entire network with "built-in positive cash flow." Gold is strongly rising, so why is BTC absent?
Recently, gold has been bullish due to multiple positive factors resonating together: cooling employment, falling Middle East oil prices, continuous central bank gold purchases, and a technical oversold rebound.
However, caution is needed regarding tonight's non-farm payroll data risk: if the data exceeds expectations strongly, rate cut expectations may reverse, and gold prices could spike and then pull back.
Strategically, do not blindly chase the rally; mainly buy on dips supported by support levels, and strictly control risk.
In contrast, BTC has not followed the rise mainly because it is still a risk asset with insufficient safe-haven qualities; it lacks central bank-level buying endorsement; and after the halving benefits have been realized, capital enthusiasm has cooled. Currently, it only slightly relates to rate cut logic and is much less elastic than gold. Before the non-farm data, it is recommended to operate gold with light positions and watch BTC for now, prioritizing risk control. $BTC #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Don't even think about bottom-fishing $BEAT, there's simply no bottom! Short it!
This is also an old thing that keeps cutting leeks. Previously, it was expected to reach 5.5, and I brought some fans in to eat a bit, but I didn't expect it to be so unstrategic and crash so fast!
It's not the first time low-priced chips have been acquired at the bottom for re-entry and manipulation. Looking at the market, the main players have already completed chip turnover. Over 3 million long positions are trapped above. According to the current trend, the dog market makers can simply rely on the short sentiment inside the market to reap the benefits!
Now it depends on retail investors' game. The shorts clearly suppress the longs; there's no such thing as a bottom rebound. That's just retail funds hoping to bottom-fish flowing in. This can be seen from the on-chain inflow situation. At the current price of 2.0, clear out longs and go short! #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Fundamental Research Report $RDNT / Radiant (DeFi) $3.20
Summary: Radiant ($RDNT) overall score 47/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Radiant (token $RDNT), in the DeFi sector. Focuses on cross-chain lending. Competitors include AAVE and COMP. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, and user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized—no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing seen on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales seen in whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B—not indicative of long-term VC holdings, technical integration seen via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Radiant $3.00B, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. FDV: Radiant $4.20B, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Annual revenue: Radiant $2.00M, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Radiant undisclosed, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view: $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view: revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final conclusion: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 47/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
That's all for now, share your thoughts in the comments.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit🐋 Whale code: Decoding the true intentions of Big money
Whales are the "smart money" in the market, and their on-chain footprints are clearly directed.
Total change: The holdings of giant whales have increased from 2.87 million to 3.06 million $BTC , with an increase of nearly 200,000 in half a year (over 12 billion US dollars). After falling below 60,000 in June, the pace of increased holdings has accelerated, indicating that below 60,000 is the value zone recognized by institutions.
New address fundraising: Within 3 hours, 4 brand-new wallets received 1,540 ($99.4 million) from Galaxy Digital and BitGo. All were newly opened accounts, pointing to institutional level position building.
A large inflow of BTC into accumulated addresses: 38,000 $BTC was transferred to long-term holding wallets, a rare occurrence in history. However, the average price of these addresses is $70,000, which is higher than the current price - it might be laying out for the break-even line. Once it rises to 70K, there may be pressure to exit.
Leveraged whale's "Life and death game" : A certain address shorted 1,600 BTC at 40 times (settlement price 64,889). In the early hours of the morning, BTC hit 65,000, triggering a stop-loss. Reducing the position by 200 $BTC led to a loss of 146,000 US dollars. I still hold 1,400 short positions at present, with a liquidation price of 64,998 - just $410 away from a total margin call! 65,000 became the "noose" of the bears.
Risk Signal: Ancient whales are transferring old coins to Coinbase. The inflow ratio of Binance whales has risen to 0.52, and some major players are preparing to sell.
Positive news: Total increase in holdings by whales, new addresses for clearing goods, and large inflows of accumulated addresses.
Negative factors: Revival of old coins, increased inflow of giant whales into exchanges.
Conclusion: Large funds are generally bullish, but there are local differences. 65,000 is the point of battle between bulls and bears.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 Bitcoin sits near $64,800 while the S&P 500 has added roughly the entire crypto market’s capitalization this month on AI-driven gains.
The divergence is clear. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded no outflow days in August so far, with roughly $626 million in net inflows over the recent three sessions, offsetting profit-taking by long-term holders who sold more than 11,500 BTC early in the month. Ethereum has shown relative strength, trading near $1,900 and outperforming on the daily move, while Solana and XRP remain range-bound near $74 and $1.06.
Market structure still favors consolidation. Liquidity is thinner than during prior expansion phases, CME open interest sits near multi-year lows, and the Fed’s fifth consecutive hold at 3.50–3.75% left September policy uncertain. Institutional demand through ETFs is real and measurable, yet it has not yet produced a decisive break above $65,000. Risks include further macro tightening or delayed regulatory clarity; the opportunity lies in whether sustained ETF absorption can absorb residual selling without requiring broad retail participation.
Traders should monitor the $65,000 level, daily ETF flow continuity, and any shift in the ETH/BTC ratio for signs of broader risk appetite returning.
Does the current ETF support represent a durable institutional floor, or simply a temporary offset until a clearer macro catalyst appears?Jiang Zhuoer: The bottom price of this Bitcoin cycle is expected to be $44,000, appearing by the end of October
Jiang Zhuoer combines the four-year cycle model with Strategy's mNAV indicator to provide a new judgment on the cycle bottom: predicting the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle to be around $44,000, with the timing around the end of October.
The logic is that the mNAV indicator leads BTC price bottoms, combined with historical bull and bear retracement ranges for simulation, while also offering an arbitrage idea of multiple Strategies shorting BTC.
Two market views
🔺 Supporters: The cycle model has historical reference value. The current macro high interest rate environment has not ended and still has downside space, making a bottom in Q4 reasonable.
🔻 Skeptics: Historical cycles will not simply repeat. ETF institutional funds and U.S. policy variables will change past volatility rhythms, making precise price and timing predictions highly uncertain.
📌 My personal view
The cycle model can be used as a reference, but do not treat the price point and timing as a standard answer to copy directly.
No model can resist macro black swans. External variables like U.S. debt, inflation, and regulation can rewrite cycle rhythms at any time.
Many people make the mistake of fixating on placing orders at 44,000 and waiting stubbornly, which may not actually be reached; even if it falls, it may not be exactly at the end of October.
You can treat this range as a key observation area rather than the sole bottom signal. The real bottom needs confirmation from market signals like selling pressure exhaustion and market resilience.
Practical reminder:
Do not open positions based solely on a single person's prediction. Put it into your observation pool and make comprehensive judgments combining macro factors, ETF funds, and on-chain data.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk's earnings report is indeed solid. Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, exceeding the market expectation of about $8.4 billion. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, compared to $0.29 a year ago, a 135-fold increase. Gross margin was 84.6%, up from 26.2% a year ago, tripling. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year. The data center business was even more remarkable, with revenue of $2.98 billion, soaring 1298% year-over-year. Eight long-term agreements locked in a guaranteed minimum revenue of $93.9 billion.
The board also approved an additional $14 billion share repurchase, bringing the total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion.
Yet, the stock fell nearly 8% after hours.
This scenario has repeated multiple times this year—record-breaking earnings, but the stock price hits new lows for the period. In July, SK Hynix dropped 15% because profits were 5% below expectations, and SanDisk had already fallen 47% in July.
The problem lies in expectations. SanDisk forecasts next quarter revenue of $10.3–10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, about $250 million below FactSet's estimate of $10.82 billion. EPS guidance is $44–46, with the market expecting $45.58, right at the lower end. Gross margin guidance is 83%–85%, roughly flat with this quarter's 84.6%.
The market now cares not about "how much you earned in the past," but "how much you can earn in the future." SanDisk's answer is: it can, but not as well as you think.
After a 468% stock price increase, beating expectations is no longer enough. Expectations are so high that even beating them isn't sufficient. Western Digital reported earnings the same day, beating revenue and EPS expectations, yet its stock fell 11% after hours. This is not just SanDisk's problem; the entire storage sector's pricing logic is loosening.
The $14 billion buyback indicates management believes repurchasing shares is more cost-effective than expanding production. But buybacks can only provide a floor, not reverse the trend. Eight long-term contracts, $93.9 billion guaranteed revenue, 84.6% gross margin—these are all known to the market. What the market doesn't know is whether gross margin can rise above 84.6%.
Storage is a cyclical industry. The stronger the cycle uptrend, the more fragile expectations become when stretched. SanDisk has given all it can, but the market focuses only on the "slightly weaker guidance." At this point, I wouldn't bet heavily on direction; I'll wait for this round of correction to clear expectations before reassessing. $SNDK In the early morning of August 6 Beijing time, SanDisk delivered a nearly perfect Q4 earnings report after the US stock market closed: revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51%, exceeding the market expectation of $8.395 billion; adjusted earnings per share of $39.25, about 14% above the market expectation of $34.59; adjusted gross margin soared to 84.6%, setting a single-quarter historical high. Then — it fell 9% pre-market, once dropping over 10%.
The more explosive the performance, the harsher the drop.
Fundamentals are so good it has no peers, but the market says it’s not enough.
There is nothing wrong with SanDisk’s earnings report. Revenue was $8.965 billion, up 372% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter. Data center revenue was $2.977 billion, doubling quarter-on-quarter and surging 1298% year-on-year, accounting for about one-third of total revenue. Gross margin was 84.6%, net margin directly hit 77% — selling one dollar worth of NAND, earning seventy-seven cents.
The root cause is not the performance itself, but that the guidance for next quarter did not meet the market’s already sky-high expectations. SanDisk’s guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue is between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, below the market consensus of $11.15 billion. Citibank lowered its target price from $2500 to $2100, and Wells Fargo from $1620 to $1400.
"Expectation cliff" — earnings exceeded consensus, but did not surpass the higher threshold demanded by extremely crowded positions. The stock price has risen nearly 470% this year; the market demands not just "good," but "better than anyone could imagine."
Signed contracts worth $93.9 billion, yet still can’t shake off the cyclical label.
The most noteworthy change in this earnings report is not on the profit statement, but in the business model transformation. SanDisk is shifting NAND from a quarterly trading model to a multi-year capacity reservation model. Currently, 10 agreements have been signed covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion, accompanied by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. More than half of the production for fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal 2028 have been locked in by long-term agreements. CEO David Goeckeler said: "Compared to just three quarters ago, this is already several light years ahead."
But the market is not buying it. The narrative that the storage industry has transformed from a cyclical stock to an "infrastructure supplier with long-term revenue visibility" needs time to be validated. A Goldman Sachs analyst pointed out — the core contradiction in the current storage industry is not fundamental deterioration, but that market expectations have excessively outpaced reality.Trade Review｜Understanding the Expectation Gap and Seizing Shorting Opportunities During Earnings Windows
If you have fully read through the earnings logic analysis I organized the previous night, it should not be difficult to spot the shorting opportunity window for $SNDK in this round.
Looking back at the performance of several stocks after their earnings releases, common signals can be found. From the perspective of those moments, $SNDK represented a highly certain trading opportunity.
I positioned a short near $1420 the day before, using 10x leverage, and closed the entire position today at around $1270, securing a profit of 4450U, which corresponds to a 104% return.
Reviewing this trade, more valuable than the final profit is the complete process of the trading logic in action. My core prior view was: the biggest risk for this stock was not poor earnings data itself, but that the market had already priced in extremely high expectations, requiring the performance to significantly exceed all estimates to sustain the valuation after the prior sharp rally.
The actual disclosed earnings data were quite impressive.
Quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, exceeding the market estimate of $8.48 billion; adjusted EPS came in at $39.25, also surpassing expectations; data center revenue grew by 103%, with gross margin soaring to 84.6%.
Yet, despite all key metrics meeting or exceeding expectations, the stock price still dropped over 12% in after-hours trading.
The real contradiction lies in the guidance for the next quarter.
Institutions forecast revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, with EPS in the $44 to $46 range. These numbers remain strong, but compared to the previously elevated market expectations, there is no surprise beat. The stock has surged nearly 470% this year; at this stage, the market demands not just steady growth but continuous, extraordinary positive catalysts.
Once the guidance falls from significantly exceeding expectations to merely meeting them, early investors have ample reason to take profits, providing a solid basis for short-term bearish trades. AMD and SPCX have already exhibited identical patterns, offering ready-made case studies that naturally increase the odds of success.
The essence of my trade was the expectation gap:
The stock price had already surged ahead before the earnings release, pushing market optimism to its peak. Compared to further upside potential, the risk of profit-taking after the positive news was much greater.
Many traders fall into the misconception that good earnings data should automatically lead to a higher stock price. However, secondary market pricing is never just about the numbers on the report; it depends on the gap between actual results and market pre-expectations.
This was true for AMD, SPCX, and $SNDK replicated this logic.
I chose to close all positions near $1270 because the earnings expectation gap trade had fully played out.
Holding on would have changed the trade logic entirely—from playing the earnings release gap to betting on a cyclical turning point in the storage industry, which is a completely different trading strategy and should not be conflated.
Judging the right direction and writing an analysis is not difficult. The real test is whether one dares to open positions according to their judgment at the peak of market enthusiasm; and after profits appear, whether one can strictly follow the original plan and exit on time.
A single profitable trade does not guarantee every future judgment will succeed. A profit only proves that the current logic fits the market environment at that moment. Sticking to stop-loss rules and exiting at preset profit points is the key to staying in the market long-term.