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Today $BTC made a pretty standard deep V rebound
This morning BTC dropped straight down from a high of 65,026, almost without looking back, hitting a low of 64,444.4
Then around 11:45, suddenly there was a large volume bullish candle, and "whoosh" it shot up directly from just over 64,400 to nearly 65,000, a very strong rebound
Now the price is hovering around 64,835
Current key points:
Upward resistance: short-term moving averages MA5 (64,867) and MA10 (64,857) are pressing down right above, plus the previous high at 65,000 is also a hurdle
The current price is exactly stuck just below this level, kind of stuck between not going up or down
• Downward support: MA20 (64,778), MA30 (64,711), and MA60 (64,734) are all supporting below, the support is quite dense, roughly the 64,700-64,800 range is a safety cushion PANews Original | Wall Street’s Next AI Bet Isn’t More Compute. It’s Power, Copper, and ROI
AI stocks were hit by a brutal leveraged washout in July, then came roaring back in August, with Marvell gaining nearly 20% in a week.
But the rebound looks more like a technical recovery following aggressive deleveraging than the start of another broad-based AI frenzy.
Crowded positioning, massive capital raising by Big Tech, and rising inflation and rate-hike expectations driven by higher oil prices had all weighed on valuations across the AI “picks-and-shovels” trade. As enthusiasm cools, Wall Street is beginning to reprice the sector.
Capital may now rotate along two paths: toward AI applications that can deliver #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck #Gold returns to $4200, why didn't BTC follow the rally?
I believe the divergence in the performance of gold and Bitcoin this time precisely indicates that in the face of real macro risks, the market still treats Bitcoin as a "high-risk tech stock" rather than a "safe-haven asset."
On August 5th, gold broke through $4200 intraday, with COMEX futures closing at $4245.8, and silver also surpassed $62.
The logic behind this is solid: US July ADP employment added only 44,000 jobs, far below expectations.
Once the data was released, the dollar and US Treasury yields immediately fell back, and funds instinctively flowed into traditional safe havens like gold.
But what about Bitcoin? It was still hovering between $64,000 and $65,000, not following the rally at all.
This is very interesting. The "digital gold" narrative that many have been shouting for a long time actually failed in this typical risk-off scenario.
My previous judgment was that as long as the Fed cuts rates and liquidity floods the market, BTC would soar alongside XAU.
But reality proved otherwise, because the current funds are very smart and cautious.
When trading on "recession expectations," their first choice is the most certain gold, not the highly volatile BTC.
When I built my position last month, I originally planned to allocate 10% to BTC as a hedge, but after seeing the ADP data, I switched that portion to gold ETFs.
The current market environment is: bad news is just bad news, not good news.
Poor employment means the economy might hard land; who would dare to take highly volatile crypto assets as a safe harbor then?
So, don’t be brainwashed by the "digital gold" slogan.
In the face of major macro turmoil, BTC’s current attribute remains that of a high-beta growth stock, not a safe-haven asset.
Only when the economy soft lands and liquidity floods again might it take over from gold to continue the rally. #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck $ETH also reduced its position a bit at 1925
This long trade was managed three times previously at 1880, 1900, and 1925
Reduced position at 1880 because the price just broke out of the consolidation zone
Reduced position at 1900 to lock in profits from breaking the round number resistance
At 1925, the short-term momentum clearly accelerated, so maintaining the original position would mismatch the risk and reward
The price peaked near 1927, then pulled back to around 1910, indicating the upward momentum remains, but selling pressure above 1920 has started
The remaining position is now small; I set a take profit at 1930 and a stop loss at 1900 for protection
No need to guess how much higher it can go; these two orders define the handling range for the remaining position
If it can hold near 1900, this breakout has a chance to extend; if it falls back, the previous acceleration is basically over
$SNDK had a small long position entered near 1235, currently around cost
No additional position for now; if it strengthens quickly, hold it; if it continues to fall, close it
For ETH, the key is to watch the 1900 retest; if support holds, I wait for 1930; if not, the remaining position will be handled by pending orders.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ At this stage, there really aren't many high-quality altcoins left. $HYPE counts as one, and personally, I think $UNI counts as well.
Since Robinhood Chain launched, Uniswap has reaped significant dividends, as evidenced by the buyback and burn data after Uniswap's fee switch was activated. Now, Uniswap has expanded from its underlying DEX to the issuance layer, with the official Launchpad pools.trade launching today and contributing over $150M in trading volume to RB on its first day.
With both issuance + trading approaching, the data on buyback and burn of $UNI will only get better in the future, greatly enhancing value capture capabilities.📌 This is not a broad bull market rally, but a structural recovery driven by ETF funds. Real opportunities never come from chaotic surges but from institutional investors voting with their feet.
📊 Current market reality: Most altcoins are still oscillating at low levels, lacking independent narratives. Capital is accelerating into targets with "definitive catalysts" — continuous ETF inflows, marginal macro improvements, and projects with regulatory benefits.
🔥 Strong leading group: $BTC $ETH $HYPE ZEC XRP AAVE
👀 Worth close tracking: SOL LINK SUI BNB ADA
📉 **Weak trend, approach with caution**: DOGE TRX BCH XLM AVAX
🟠 BTC** — The liquidity anchor of the entire market, with ETF net inflows exceeding 170 million yesterday; BlackRock IBIT alone accounted for 111 million. Institutional buying is the real foundation of this rebound.
🔵 **ETH — Following the rise but not leading, still consolidating around 1,850, a lagging indicator of sentiment recovery, not a pioneer.
🟣 **SOL** — A high-beta L1 asset, oscillating near 73, showing the strongest elasticity when sentiment warms, but needs BTC to stabilize first.
🟢 **HYPE** — On-chain derivatives leader, leading with +2%, a thermometer of capital preference in the DeFi sector.
🟡 ZEC** — Privacy sector compliance breakthrough + ETF application expectations, up 4.7% against the trend, narrative-driven.
🤖 **TAO & $WLD — Core AI narrative wind indicators, the most story-driven but highly volatile.
📈 Macro coordinates: Signs of easing in US-Iran negotiations, oil prices falling, marginal relief in risk asset pressure. But August remains BTC’s historically weakest month — down for 4 consecutive years with an average drop of about 10%. The seasonal headwind persists; don’t get carried away by single-day rebounds.
💡 Conclusion: ETF funds are buying, but seasonality is suppressing. Don’t chase just because of a rise, don’t rush on news. Market money is limited; only assets with real institutional buying and macro logic support can go far. Keep a close eye on ETF net inflow data, learn to strike selectively, let capital flow decide for you instead of being led by noise. Gold returns to $4300, why is BTC unmoved? My judgment: it's not that it won't follow, the time hasn't come yet.
Last night, gold surged past 4200 with a big bullish candle, and today it directly hit $4300, with unstoppable momentum. In contrast, BTC is still stuck at 64,000, as stable as a respectable stablecoin.
Many people are starting to doubt whether the "digital gold" narrative has collapsed.
My view is exactly the opposite: gold is leading the charge, BTC is holding back for a big move.
---
Logic breakdown:
🔸 What is driving this gold rally? Geopolitical risk aversion + global central banks buying gold. The nature of the funds is conservative, traditionally favored by conventional capital, and not in the same pool as crypto market money.
🔸 Who is BTC following now? The US stock market. Until liquidity truly loosens, big money won't move recklessly. This is not a failure of "digital gold," but BTC is still in the first half of the macro cycle.
🔸 But think carefully—global central banks are all scrambling for gold to "de-dollarize," and the stronger this consensus, the sooner BTC, as the pioneer of decentralization, will absorb this overflow liquidity. When the macro winds shift, BTC's elasticity will make its catch-up rally much stronger than gold's.
---
Operational advice:
❌ Don't chase gold higher at this level
❌ Don't panic sell BTC
✅ Hold calmly and wait for the wind to come
The main player in the second half will most likely change.
---
The above is my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
I believe Arc is one of Circle's most important long-term strategies, but in the short term, it is unlikely to be a catalyst for sustained stock price growth because the true value is determined not by product launch but by whether institutions adopt it on a large scale.
The Arc mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, but the securities tokenization project driven by DTCC is expected to gradually roll out by 2027, meaning commercialization will take time. Meanwhile, Circle's latest financial report shows that USDC circulation at the end of the quarter decreased by 4.8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating that current demand growth is still limited. Compared to "launch news," the speed of institutional onboarding and the scale of USDC usage are more critical indicators.
If trading, I would not chase the price just because the mainnet launches on September 16, but would continuously monitor three data points: whether new large financial institutions join the Arc network, whether USDC circulation resumes growth, and whether on-chain settlement volume continues to expand. Only when these data improve simultaneously will Arc's long-term value truly begin to materialize.
Investing should not focus solely on the story but on realization. Whether a project succeeds is not about how lively the launch event is, but whether there are real users, real funds, and real business after going live. Learning to track adoption rates is more important than chasing concepts.
Arc deserves long-term attention, but what truly drives Circle's value growth is not the launch date but institutional adoption rate. 🚨 SanDisk's earnings report ignites the AI storage market, but BTC's next move is even more crucial!
Tonight's biggest market keyword:
It's not just a simple AI rally, but rather—the AI industry chain is entering the "performance verification stage."
SanDisk's latest earnings directly prove one point:
In the AI era, besides GPUs, storage is also becoming a core infrastructure.
📊 SanDisk Earnings:
🔥 Revenue:
$8.97 billion
(Expected $8.48 billion)
🔥 Adjusted EPS:
$39.25
(Expected $34.96)
🔥 Data Center Business:
$2.97 billion
Year-over-year growth of 103%
At the same time, the company announced an additional $14 billion stock repurchase authorization.
AI server demand is driving the entire storage industry chain:
NVIDIA → AI computing power
SanDisk/Micron/SK Hynix → Storage demand
Microsoft/Amazon → AI commercialization
But the market also shows a signal:
Good earnings ≠ stock price must rise.
SanDisk fell after hours, indicating that funds have shifted from "unlimited AI hype" to the "profit growth verification" stage.
So what impact does this have on the crypto space?
Historically, risk assets show clear linkage:
US stocks AI rally
⬇️
Market risk appetite rises
⬇️
Funds seek high elasticity assets
⬇️
BTC → ETH → altcoin rotation
Current BTC:
🟠 Price:
Around $64,000
Key levels:
🔥 $65,000:
A breakout here could open up further upside
⚠️ $63,000:
A break below could damage the short-term rebound structure
The market is now waiting for a signal:
If the AI sector remains strong and US stock risk sentiment stays high, BTC has a chance to follow through with a breakout;
If AI corrects from highs and funds flow back to safety, BTC may continue to consolidate.
My observation:
AI is the strongest narrative in US stocks this year;
BTC is the strongest consensus in crypto markets.
The real big moves often come when both markets' capital directions align.
Tonight's focus:
📌 Nasdaq tech stock trends
📌 Semiconductor market driven by SanDisk
📌 Whether BTC can hold above $65,000
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 After yesterday's ADP employment and ISM services data were released, the crypto market did not experience a sustained one-sided sell-off. Instead, Bitcoin gradually recovered from around 63847, reaching a high of 65022, indicating that some macro pressures had already been preemptively released during the previous decline. However, this does not mean the risks are over. Tonight, initial jobless claims, Q2 productivity, and unit labor costs will follow, with July's nonfarm payrolls closing the sequence tomorrow. Especially for unit labor costs, if they remain elevated, the market will reprice inflation stickiness and prolonged high interest rates; if initial claims rise and labor costs cool down, it will support a rebound in rate cut expectations. June's nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 74,000. The market's biggest concern now is no longer economic overheating but a sudden employment slowdown. Therefore, upcoming data, whether too strong or too weak, could trigger significant volatility.
On the geopolitical front, Iran stated that arrangements with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have entered the final drafting stage, but the formal agreement has not yet been announced. If negotiations conclude successfully, the war premium in oil prices is expected to continue to decline, which would be positive for inflation and risk assets; if talks break down again over port blockades or control of shipping lanes, energy prices could rebound sharply. Currently, this news can improve sentiment but is not enough to support unconditional buying. An agreement on paper is one thing; actual resumption of tanker passage is another.
There was a notable change in long and short positions today. Bitcoin long accounts dropped to 52.76%, while shorts rose to 47.24%, a clear cooling from the previous near 56% long ratio. Contract open interest value rose to about $7.074 billion during the rebound but then fell back to around $6.885 billion. Price increased without a corresponding expansion in open interest, indicating this recovery is more like short covering and existing capital pushing prices rather than a large influx of new longs. The positive side is that crowded longs have been cleared, and the market temporarily lacks the fragile structure of recent days where "one drop triggers a cascade of liquidations." The downside is that above 65000, there is still no strong new capital stepping in. In other words, the ship is lighter but not yet catching a favorable wind. 🦄 Uniswap Founder Criticizes High Launchpad Fees
Uniswap founder Hayden Adams argued that the 1% liquidity pool fee used by some token launch platforms effectively creates a ~2% bid-ask spread, making it their primary tool for extracting value from traders.
🔹 Higher fees significantly increase trading costs.
🔹 Early liquidity pools become less efficient as token liquidity grows.
🔹 LPs on many launchpads often provide zero-cost locked assets, meaning high fees aren't justified as compensation for price risk.
💡 He highlighted Uniswap's pools.trade model instead, which uses a 0.25% fee with automatic fee reinvestment, arguing it offers a more sustainable approach to long-term liquidity.
#Uniswap #UNI #DeFi #DEX #Liquidity #Crypto #Blockchain #HaydenAdams #Web3 #CryptoNews#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
Brothers, gold has surged to 4200, but BTC is still hovering around 64000. This is worth pondering.
After the ADP data release, the dollar weakened, US Treasury yields fell, and gold took off immediately—this script is very standard. Funds are trading on the expectation that the Fed might pivot, with safe-haven assets benefiting first. The logic chain is short; once rates ease, gold bounces right away.
Gold and BTC follow different paths. Gold is a safe-haven asset priced directly on changes in rate expectations. BTC’s transmission is much longer—it first waits for liquidity easing, then for incremental funds to enter, and then for liquidity within the crypto market to recover. There are more than one layer in between, so a time lag is normal.
BTC not following gold now means funds are still waiting for their own catalyst while digesting internal pressures like the fading expectations of the CLARITY Act and stablecoin liquidity contraction.
My judgment is that gold’s continued strength will eventually drive liquidity overflow into BTC, but the chain needs to be completed.
What do you all think?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK BREAKING:
Taiwan just moved on crypto regulation.
Travel Rule for domestic transfers starting October.
- Every platform-to-platform transfer, any amount.
- Transfers above NT$30,000, about $930, trigger extra ID checks.
- Birth date and address for individuals.
- Business ID and registered address for companies.
- Receiving platforms must verify it all against their own records.
This builds on Taiwan's Virtual Asset Service Act.
Passed in July. Full licensing for exchanges and custodians.
Taiwan tried this back in 2021.
Failed. Cross-border systems couldn't connect.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck On August 6th Beijing time, US-based NAND flash leader SanDisk released its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026. Revenue and profit for the period far exceeded market consensus expectations, but due to a conservative guidance for next quarter's results, its stock price plunged sharply after hours, which also triggered a collective correction in the US storage sector. Financial reports show that SanDisk achieved revenue of $8.97 billion in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 372% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51%; GAAP net profit was $6.9 billion, with a gross margin of 84.6%. AI-driven data center business became the core growth engine, and the company's board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan, boosting confidence in its long-term value. Despite the strong performance for the period, the company provided revenue guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 at $10.3–10.8 billion, which was below Wall Street institutions' expectations and directly triggered the stock price decline. The market is concerned that the slope of NAND flash memory price increases is slowing. The previously high valuations accumulated in the storage sector make it difficult to sustain growth expectations, leading to profit-taking rallies. Looking at the market, SanDisk's largest post-market drop was nearly 8%, with Micron and Western Digital weakening in tandem, further spreading sentiment to the leading Korean storage stocks. Institutional analysis points out that AI server storage demand remains resilient, but consumer demand remains weak. Coupled with changes in global supply-side expectations brought by Changxin Technology's IPO, funds have begun to reassess the sustainability of the storage supercycle. The sector will focus on tracking flash spot prices and enterprise-level order fulfillment. #闪迪财报双超预期, 14 new units were addedBTC August 6 Market Technical Analysis:
ETF Continues Inflows, Short Squeeze Drives Rally, $65,000 Becomes Key Battleground
As of August 6, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $64,660, up 0.97% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $64,998 before a slight pullback. The overall trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias. This round of gains is mainly driven by continuous institutional inflows, short covering, and technical breakout synergy, but significant resistance remains above.
⸻
1. Core Market Logic
① ETF Continues Accumulation, Institutions Still Positioning
Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs continued net inflows:
* Total net inflow: $244.4 million
* BlackRock IBIT single-day inflow: $196.8 million
* Accounting for about 80.5% of all ETF inflows
Meanwhile, the IBIT wallet again withdrew 5,073.95 BTC (about $327 million) from Coinbase Prime, indicating ETFs are still completing physical deliveries, and institutional funds have not stopped allocating.
Conclusion:
ETFs remain the largest incremental source of BTC funds currently.
⸻
② New Wallets Continue Building Positions
In the past three hours:
4 new wallets received from Galaxy Digital and BitGo:
* 1,540 BTC
* Valued at approximately $99.4 million
This indicates professional funds are starting to establish new positions.
Such on-chain data usually leads market sentiment, implying large funds still favor medium to long-term bullish positions.
⸻
③ Shorts Forced to Cover
Previously, a large whale established:
* 1,600 BTC short positions
* Total value about $102 million
After the early morning rebound:
* 200 BTC have been stopped out and reduced
* Remaining 1,400 BTC
* Liquidation price raised to $64,998
Indicates:
Shorts are continuously retreating their defensive lines.
Once $65,000 is broken again, it is likely to trigger new short covering, causing a rapid short-term surge.
⸻
④ Funding Rate Turns Positive Again
Mainstream exchange perpetual contract funding rate:
+0.012%
Meaning:
* Long positions are increasing again
* Market sentiment is recovering bullish bias
* Short advantage is weakening
However, the current funding rate remains low and has not entered an overheated state.
⸻
2. Technical Analysis
Current Key Prices
Indicator Price Technical Significance
Current Price $64,660 Has broken above the 50-day moving average and confirmed a retest
Intraday High $64,998 Large whale short liquidation zone
First Support $64,000 Yesterday's closing price coincides with the 50-day moving average
First Resistance $65,500 Upper edge of previous consolidation range
⸻
Daily Chart Structure
Currently BTC has:
* Closed positive candles for two consecutive days
* Successfully stood above the 50-day moving average (around $64,100)
* MACD has formed a golden cross again
Indicates:
The daily trend is turning bullish again.
If BTC can hold above the 50-day moving average for the next two to three days, the validity of this breakout will be further enhanced.
⸻
Hourly Chart Trend
Current hourly chart features:
* Trading range:
$64,500–$65,000
* Volume moderately increasing
* No obvious bearish divergence yet
* Bulls still in control
In the short term:
The uptrend is not over, but there is still some selling pressure near $65,000.
⸻
3. Short-term Trend Forecast
Bullish Scenario (about 60% probability)
If BTC can hold above $64,800,
It is expected to trigger:
* More short covering
* Trend-following capital inflows
* Continued ETF inflows providing momentum
Upside targets to watch:
* First target: $65,500
* Second target: $66,000
If volume breaks above $65,500, the market may enter a new upward phase.
⸻
Bearish Scenario (about 40% probability)
If the price fails to effectively break above $65,000,
A technical pullback may occur.
Support levels to watch:
* First support: $64,000
* Second support: $63,800
Additionally, be cautious of the following macro factors suppressing risk assets:
* Volatility in US tech stocks (Nasdaq previously down 0.8%)
* Fed hawkish remarks (Daly stated further rate hikes possible if inflation rebounds)
⸻
4. Risk Warnings
1. Macro Liquidity Risk
The market still expects some rate hike probability in September (about 55%). If US Treasury yields continue rising, it may increase the opportunity cost of holding BTC, pressuring the price.
⸻
2. Technical False Breakout Risk
Although BTC has broken above the 50-day moving average, the closing situation over the next 2–3 trading days needs observation.
If it falls back below the 50-day moving average, this breakout may turn false and trigger short-term profit-taking.
⸻
3. Whale Position Risk
1,400 BTC short positions remain open
Their liquidation price is near $64,998
If this area is hit, short-term volatility may significantly increase.
⸻
5. Trading Strategy
Short-term Traders
* Can focus on buying dips in the $64,200–$64,500 range.
* Stop loss reference at $63,800.
* If breaking above $65,500 with volume, follow the trend with a target of $66,000.
Mid-term Investors
Maintain a strategy of scaling in on pullbacks, focusing on:
* Whether ETF fund flows continue net inflows;
* Changes in Fed policy expectations;
* Performance of US tech sector;
* Whether BTC can continuously hold above the 50-day moving average.
⸻
Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase with a bullish bias. ETF continuous accumulation, institutional position building, and short covering jointly support the market recovery. Technically, the price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average, MACD golden cross formed, strengthening the bulls' advantage. In the short term, $65,000–$65,500 remains a key resistance zone; a volume breakout could challenge $66,000 further. Multiple rejections may lead to a retest of support near $64,000 before choosing the next direction. Overall, with the synergy of capital flows and technicals, the market currently leans slightly bullish.#Costco Latest Monthly Sales Released: Net Sales +10.7%, Digital Same-Store Sales Soar 17.7%
Yesterday, Costco announced July sales data:
Net sales of $23.12 billion, up +10.7% year-over-year
Cumulative sales for the first 48 weeks $273.55 billion, up +10.1% year-over-year
Overall same-store sales (Comp) +8.9%
Excluding gasoline and exchange rates still +6.6%
Digital same-store sales +17.7%
The U.S. market performed best, with digital channels continuing double-digit growth, showing that member stickiness and spending power have not noticeably weakened.
Looking at the stock price:
Although COST has pulled back significantly from its May highs recently, it still has about +9% gains YTD. After the sales data was released yesterday, the stock fluctuated slightly intraday, closed slightly down, and showed signs of stabilization after hours. For a high-valuation company like Costco, the market is naturally sensitive to "growth slowdown," but this time the core same-store sales remain at a healthy level, highlighting its defensive qualities—stable member spending and high renewal rates remain scarce assets in a macro environment full of uncertainty.
For long-term holders, steady growth data often provides more valuable reference than short-term stock price fluctuations.
$COST
#Costco #COST #USStocks #RetailStocks #DefensiveStocks #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
South Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Kim Jung-kwon, spoke out today (August 6). His message was direct: if South Korea does not accelerate chip investments, it will lose its advantage in the semiconductor industry.
He is indeed under pressure now. $SKHYNIX SK Hynix dropped over 10% today, $SAMSUNG Samsung Electronics fell 6.3%, and $EWY KOSPI closed down 4.59%. This is the result of $SNDK SanDisk's earnings beating expectations followed by a sharp post-market decline, worsening sentiment in the memory sector.
South Korea currently holds 65% of the global memory chip market, dominated by Samsung and SK Hynix. But this position is not secure. ChangXin Memory's DRAM share has reached 7%, a year-on-year surge of 716%, with Chinese manufacturers rapidly catching up. The US and Japan are also ramping up their domestic semiconductor industries. Kim Jung-kwon also acknowledged that Beijing is investing massive national resources into the semiconductor industry.
He provided data: by 2030, the global memory chip market size will grow to about $1 trillion. Speed is key—once semiconductor customers adopt a supplier's products, they rarely switch, so missing the window of rapid demand growth means it cannot be recovered.
He expressed a pragmatic view: "Rather than discussing how to distribute the semiconductor industry's windfall profits, it is better to focus on helping companies reinvest funds." In other words, don't think about how to split the money; first, invest it to ramp up capacity and speed.
The South Korean government has already started investing heavily. At the end of June, it announced that Samsung and SK Hynix will invest 800 trillion won (about $518 billion) in the southwest region, each building two new wafer fabs. But Kim Jung-kwon's remarks today indicate he thinks this is still not fast enough. ChangXin has completed in 10 years what Micron took 30 years to achieve, with an astonishing expansion speed.
Kim Jung-kwon's statement today boils down to one sentence: we've invested the money, but the speed is still insufficient and must be faster. If South Korea slows down, it may not hold onto its 65% market share. Whether the four new fabs in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do can be put into operation on schedule is likely the decisive factor in this race.$BTC positioning
Current liquidation imbalance is skewed toward longs.
Long liq levels: 516
Short liq levels: 262
Δ: +254 (~$7.25B aggregated over the last 5 days)
-> not extreme but starting to get more meaningful
At the same time, there are no major liquidity targets above price. The closest meaningful high-leverage liquidation level sits below us around 64.3k, while Binance Top Traders continue to increase short exposure & whale vs retail delta turns positive - often indicating a local high area
For now, the imbalance clearly favors longs being at risk. Let's see if sellers can capitalizeWhy is the crypto space so dead right now (honest thoughts)
$ETH $BTC
1. Retail investors are scared of losses and many have exited directly
In previous market cycles, a large number of people chased highs, held losing positions, and added funds, suffering heavy losses. Many quit after losing, leaving communities silent, profit screenshot sharing almost gone, and even complaints about the market have decreased.
Previously, the market's liveliness relied on retail investors trading back and forth. Once retail investors leave, the market loses its lifeblood. Like the gainers list in the screenshot, a few coins surge, but the vast majority remain stagnant, with only a few speculative traders active.
2. No new money is flowing in from outside
Money outside is going to buy US Treasuries and speculate on US stock AI sectors, unwilling to flow into crypto. The total stablecoin supply is not growing, so the "bullets" in the market are limited. Without incremental funds, it's hard to have a broad rally. Now, only a few small coins get pumped in rotation, then fall back, unable to sustain a lasting rally.
3. Fewer stories to hype
Previously, DeFi, MEME, and Layer2 were hyped in turns. Now new narratives flare up briefly then die out, with no big theme to sustain the whole market. Many coins rely on unlocking and selling pressure to suppress prices; even small gains trigger sell-offs, making rebounds hard to sustain. Like $BICO in the screenshot, the rebound is just short-covering pushing prices up, not genuine sustained buying.
4. Market controlled by institutions, losing the old frenzy
Institutions mostly hold long-term and don’t frequently pump and dump. The market no longer experiences wild surges and crashes but rather long periods of grinding and consolidation. Traders used to quick in-and-out profits feel the market is dead and unprofitable.
5. Everyone sees through the scams and copycat tricks
Whales pump then dump, and during downtrends, fake rebounds lure people to add funds and hold losing positions. This playbook is well known, so retail investors no longer chase highs easily. When a coin rises a bit, no one follows, and the main players can’t move the market, resulting in small pulses and a dull market.
6. Aftereffects of the derivatives market
After round upon round of liquidations, many are afraid to open high-leverage positions. Everyone is cautious and hesitant to trade actively, causing volume to shrink. Occasional single-day surges are just localized rallies; most coins remain sideways.
#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 US ADP employment in July only added 44,000 jobs, clearly showing a cooling labor market. But strangely, the Fed folks have become more hawkish—Kashkari, Cook, and Daly have successively stated that if inflation does not continue to improve, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The market has just realized: economic slowdown does not mean monetary policy will immediately turn dovish.
The Treasury side also did not give any relief, maintaining the pace of Treasury buybacks and bond issuance unchanged. This means the market will still have to absorb a large supply of US debt in the short term, long-term interest rates will remain high, and the financial environment is tightening on its own.
What now affects global asset valuations is no longer simply whether the Fed raises rates or not. The government's massive financing needs, long-term interest rates, and market risk premiums together push global capital costs higher.
On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman are close to reaching a shipping agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, but it is only a temporary arrangement; full resumption of navigation depends on US-Iran negotiations. The risk of supply disruption has decreased somewhat, but Iran wants more control and fees over the shipping route, so uncertainty in the energy supply chain remains, and oil prices could fluctuate at any time due to negotiation setbacks.
In short, global capital is currently facing four simultaneous pressures: high capital costs, ongoing government bond issuance, AI infrastructure spending, and energy geopolitical risks. Capital allocation will increasingly emphasize capital efficiency and cash flow quality, while high-valuation, high-leverage assets will continue to face pressure.
In the crypto market, ETFs have seen a net inflow of $475 million in the past week and $922 million in the past month, indicating short-term institutional funds are replenishing risk assets. But looking over a longer period, there was still a cumulative outflow of $7.932 billion in the past quarter, showing that large funds remain cautious about the overall market.
So the current market is not a broad risk appetite rebound but is finding a new pricing balance amid global liquidity, long-term interest rates, and policy uncertainty. Bitcoin in the short term is still driven by US dollar liquidity, global capital costs, and changes in risk appetite. Whether ETF funds can shift from short-term replenishment to a trend inflow is the key focus going forward.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
#CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 This is NOT a full altcoin season. 💰
Most altcoins are still dragging their feet, with only a handful showing real momentum. What we're actually seeing is capital rotation, not a market-wide pump. Smart money is being extremely selective right now, flowing only into projects with solid fundamentals, genuine liquidity, and a clear catalyst. That's the line between winners and dead weight.
Leading the charge right now:
$JTO $JELLYJELLY $BTC $OPG $BTCSLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP
Still stuck in the mud:
$BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $SOPH $IP $AVNT $ZAMA $OFC $PIEVERSE $VIRTUAL $ACU $H $MEGA
On my watchlist:
$MEME $EDEN $HUMA $ZKP $METIS
Here's how I'm reading the market:
$BTC = the liquidity anchor
$ETH = quiet institutional accumulation
$SOL = high-beta L1 opportunity
$TAO + $WLD = AI narrative leaders
$HYPE = risk appetite gauge
$DOGE + $ZEC = retail sentiment meters
The biggest lesson? The strongest moves start before the crowd catches on. Follow the flow, respect the trend, and mute the noise. 📊
#DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $BTC $SOL #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck STX (Seagate) vs WDC (Western Digital) Earnings Divergence Core Analysis
Key Conclusion:
The difference between STX and WDC is not about who has stronger demand, but stems from differences in technology roadmap, product cycle, business structure, and management guidance style.
STX relies on HAMR new technology for future growth expectations, while WDC depends on existing products to maintain current profitability.
1. Biggest Difference: HAMR Technology Roadmap
STX: HAMR Leader
Seagate is currently the fastest advancing vendor in HAMR technology, with 30TB HAMR drives already certified by leading cloud providers.
HAMR can increase hard drive capacity, reduce unit storage cost, and bring technological premium.
Due to AI data centers' growing demand for large-capacity storage, Seagate has secured more long-term orders, and management is more optimistic about the future.
WDC: HAMR Later
Western Digital's HAMR mass production timeline is relatively delayed, expected around 2027.
Currently mainly relying on mature products like Ultra-SMR and ePMR.
Advantages:
High product yield, excellent cost control, with this quarter's gross margin about 54%, higher than STX.
Shortcomings:
Lacks growth elasticity brought by next-generation technology.
Simply put:
WDC earns money now, STX bets on future growth.
2. Business Structure Differences
STX:
Almost 100% focused on HDD business.
Benefiting from AI data centers' growing demand for large-capacity storage.
Simple business structure without other cyclical businesses affecting it, so management can more easily provide positive guidance.
WDC:
Recently completed the split of HDD and NAND flash businesses.
Although beneficial for business focus in the long term, short term still affected by NAND cycle fluctuations and split transition.
Therefore, WDC's earnings guidance is more conservative.
3. Order and Pricing Power Differences
STX:
HAMR technology brings new orders.
Cloud providers lock in capacity in advance to secure future storage needs.
Long-term orders have higher certainty and also possess technology premium capability.
WDC:
Long-term contracts mainly secure existing Ultra-SMR products.
Current products have strong profitability but lack new growth space brought by HAMR.
Difference:
Short-term profitability: WDC is stronger.
Long-term technology premium: STX has the advantage.
4. Why did WDC's earnings look good but the stock price fell?
The reason is not poor performance but market expectations being raised by Seagate.
WDC:
Revenue and EPS exceeded expectations.
However, future guidance only met analyst expectations without extra surprises.
Investors originally expected WDC to also raise guidance significantly like STX, so the expectation gap caused the stock price pullback.
5. Company Comparison
STX Seagate:
Core Advantages:
HAMR technology leadership
Clear benefits from AI storage demand
High certainty of future orders
Shortcomings:
Current gross margin lower than WDC
Market has high expectations for future growth
WDC Western Digital:
Core Advantages:
Strong current profitability
Higher gross margin
Strong competitiveness of mature products
Shortcomings:
Slower HAMR progress
NAND split has transition risks
Future growth elasticity needs to wait
Summary:
STX's advantage lies in the future, WDC's advantage lies in the present.
STX gains valuation uplift relying on AI storage upgrades and HAMR technology breakthroughs.
WDC needs to wait for HAMR technology realization while relying on current product profitability support.
Key follow-up focuses:
1. Whether WDC's HAMR mass production proceeds as planned.
2. Speed of STX's HAMR shipment ratio increase.
3. Whether cloud providers' AI capital expenditure continues to grow.
4. Impact of NAND price changes on WDC.
🚨 Bitcoin could be heading toward one of its biggest governance battles in years.
In less than 3 days, a controversial proposal known as BIP-110 is expected to spark intense debate across the Bitcoin community.
Supporters of the Ordinals and Runes ecosystem argue the proposal is designed to restrict their activity on Bitcoin. They also believe it won't achieve broad consensus and could ultimately lead to a minority fork with limited adoption.
Whether that happens or not, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the debate is no longer just about code—it's about who gets to shape Bitcoin's future.
For many builders in the Ordinals and Runes ecosystem, relying on Bitcoin maximalists to protect their interests is no longer seen as a viable strategy. Instead, they're calling for greater independence, including the development of their own Bitcoin client and the ability to evolve the network on their own terms.
The message is simple:
Don't wait for the next battle. Build your own future.
The next few days could become another defining chapter in Bitcoin's ongoing governance story.
$DOG Mode is coming... 👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ordinals #Runes #BIP110 #Crypto #Blockchain #DOG #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck
#DailyOrbit 股价创新高之际，贝佐斯开始套现了。 据最新披露的Form 4文件，亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯于本周一出售了价值近3.5亿美元的亚马逊股票，这是他今年首次减持公司股份。 减持数据速览： 减持时间: 本周一（股价创纪录新高之际） 套现金额: 约3.5亿美元 减持性质 : 2026年首次减持 更大计划 : 两天前披露计划出售最多1500万股（价值超40亿美元） 当前持股: 仍以8.16%比例稳坐第一大股东 🔍 三个值得关注的细节： 股价新高兑现 此次减持发生在亚马逊股价创纪录新高之际。周一亚马逊市值首次突破3万亿美元，收于284.02美元/股，年内涨幅超23%。股价创历史高点，大股东兑现部分收益是典型的财富管理操作，尤其对于贝佐斯这种将大部分财富集中在一只股票上的创始人来说。 40亿减持计划才刚开始 贝佐斯两天前已在另一份文件中披露，计划出售最多1500万股亚马逊股票，价值超过40亿美元。此次3.5亿美元的减持仅占该计划的一小部分，意味着未来可能还有更多减持操作。 8.16%持股仍绝对领先 即使完成此次减持，贝佐斯仍以8.16%的持股比例大幅领先，稳居亚马逊最大股东。 当创始人ETF FLOWS: $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows on Aug. 5, while $XRP spot ETFs saw net outflows.
$BTC : $244.42M
$ETH : $60.86M
$XRP : -$3.58MDon't short against the trend! It's obvious that gold is still surging upward, yet this guy insists on adding another short position near 4300, dumping a new $9.42 million short order. He got a bit trapped right after entering. But if you say he doesn't understand the trend, he actually has over $10 million in profits in his account; if you say he does, then opening a short at this level is really stubborn. The amazing thing is, this newly opened position is actually up over $50,000 at the current price. Now he holds $24.69 million in short positions, with a floating loss of only $590,000. Honestly, this level of fluctuation is just a drop in the bucket for someone at his level. The real game probably isn't about this one battle.
What really makes people curious is that this guy has quietly made $10.5 million since coming out last July, switching back and forth between crypto, storage, and commodities, making it impossible to tell if he's a hardcore bear or bull. Now the whole network is watching his liquidation price at 5888.2. If gold touches that level, that's over $20 million in fuel—wouldn't the gold price take off right there? But gold has been consolidating for too long; this might just be a last gasp. Maybe he'll really make a profit. What do you guys think? $XAU #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注
Don’t just focus on who Google replaced.
What’s truly worth paying attention to is that behind this management reshuffle lies a reflection of the entire AI industry entering a new phase of competition.
I tend to believe this is both a proactive upgrade by Google and a sign that the battle for AI talent is intensifying.
Hassabis shifting to Chief Scientist, dedicating more energy from management to AGI research and technical direction, essentially aims to bring core research forces back to the front line and accelerate the development of next-generation AI technology.
On the other hand, several DeepMind veterans choosing to start their own ventures has also led the market to reassess Google’s talent stability. As companies like OpenAI and Anthropic continue to attract top researchers, competition in the AI industry is no longer just about models but also about the fight for elite talent.
In my view, the core competitiveness of an AI company in the future will not simply be about how much computing power it has or how many larger-parameter models it launches.
Talent determines the height of technological breakthroughs, computing power determines the speed of R&D progress, and products determine whether technology can truly create value.
A more interesting pattern may emerge in the future: tech giants will continue to hold advantages through funding, data, and infrastructure, while AI startups will seek breakthrough opportunities through more flexible organizations and faster innovation.
Therefore, what truly decides the outcome is not who poached which scientist, but who can continuously attract top talent, rapidly convert research achievements into products, and build long-term competitive barriers. The AI battle has only just entered a more intense stage. 🚨 Gold is making history… but Bitcoin is standing still. Why?
While gold keeps pushing toward the historic $4,200/oz mark, $BTC continues to trade sideways. At first glance, it may seem like crypto has lost momentum—but the bigger picture tells a different story.
Right now, investors are choosing safety over risk.
Gold is benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty, aggressive central bank buying, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could eventually shift toward easier monetary policy. At the same time, high U.S. Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar are limiting both gold's upside and the appetite for riskier assets.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains in consolidation.
The long-term story hasn't changed. Institutional adoption continues to grow, spot ETF demand remains steady, and digital assets are becoming a larger part of global portfolios. What's missing isn't conviction—it's a catalyst.
With crypto liquidity still below previous bull-market levels, many investors are waiting on key U.S. economic data, including CPI, PPI, and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary, before making bigger moves.
History offers an interesting perspective.
Gold often leads during periods of uncertainty. But when inflation cools, Treasury yields decline, and the dollar weakens, capital has historically rotated from traditional safe havens into risk assets—including $BTC and $ETH.
The next major move could depend on three questions:
• Can gold hold above $4,200/oz?
• Can $BTC break out of its range with strong volume?
• Will softer inflation, stronger ETF inflows, and a more dovish Fed reignite risk appetite?
For now, gold has the spotlight. The real question is: How much longer before Bitcoin takes it back?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Gold #Crypto #Ethereum #ETF #FederalReserve #Investing #Macro #CryptoMarkets #MSTRSells1638BTC #Gold4200BTCStalls #TrumpTokenProbe
#DailyOrbit #Circle bets on Arc after earnings report, can USDC see new growth?
🔥Circle just released its Q2 earnings report, the numbers look decent, but the real highlight isn’t the report itself, it’s their all-in move on Arc.
Quick rundown of the earnings:
Revenue $701 million, +7% YoY, net profit $48 million. USDC circulation at 73.3 billion, market share 27%. On-chain transaction volume $1.48 trillion, up 1.5x YoY.
Honestly, a 7% revenue growth isn’t explosive by crypto standards. So why did the market jump 16% after the report? Because everyone’s not focused on the current 7%, but on whether Circle can transform from a "stablecoin seller" to a "financial operating system" after Arc mainnet launches on September 16.
What is Arc? Simply put, Circle built its own L1 public chain specifically for institutional payments, forex, and asset tokenization. Some key points:
1. USDC as gas fee. No ETH, no SOL, fees paid directly in USDC, so institutions don’t have to guess gas prices when budgeting.
2. Deterministic finality <1 second. Once a transaction is confirmed, it can’t be changed, no need to wait for 12 blocks, crucial for payment scenarios.
3. Optional privacy. Amounts can be hidden but addresses are visible, balancing compliance and confidentiality.
The most impressive part is the validator list: BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, Standard Chartered, SBI... This lineup looks less like a public chain and more like a Wall Street consortium. BlackRock is even deploying its BUIDL fund directly on Arc, and DTCC is working on asset tokenization.
Also, Arc tokens have already done a $222 million presale, valued at $3 billion, with investments from a16z and BlackRock. CEO Jeremy Allaire clearly stated that 60% of tokens will go to ecosystem funding and airdrops. This means there will likely be a wave of incentives after mainnet launch.
So, can USDC see new growth?
My judgment: yes, but not immediately.
In the short term, 73.3 billion circulation is already a high base, pushing higher requires new use cases. Arc is that new use case—if Arc really takes off, USDC could evolve from a "cross-chain transfer tool" to the "underlying settlement asset for institutional financial infrastructure," completely unlocking its circulation ceiling.
But the risks are real:
- Arc mainnet launches in September, it’s still in the planning stage. Over 100 developers sounds promising, but whether TVL and transaction volume can grow is another matter.
- Interest rate tailwinds are fading. Circle used to earn heavily from reserve interest, but with the Fed’s rate cuts, that income will shrink. Arc must quickly deliver a second growth curve.
- Competition won’t wait. Tether’s USDT is still dominant, PayPal is pushing PYUSD, and traditional banks are developing their own stablecoins. If Arc can’t quickly build network effects, the window will close.
In short: Circle isn’t launching a new product, it’s betting on an identity transformation—from stablecoin issuer to on-chain financial infrastructure. If it wins, USDC’s narrative upgrades from "the dollar of crypto" to "the settlement layer of the internet." If it loses, it’s just an overvalued public chain plus a slowing stablecoin company.
September 16 mainnet launch is a key milestone; we’ll see the real data then. For now, watch closely and don’t rush to FOMO.
Do you think Arc can help USDC break out? Or will institutional chains just be self-indulgent? 👇The financial report figures clearly convey a signal of divergence: although revenue fell short of expectations, profits far exceeded them, which is precisely the market's true focus at this moment.
Total revenue and reserve income reported $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase. Although this is below Wall Street's consensus expectation of $717 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $143 million (up 8% year-over-year), and net profit turned sharply from a loss of $482.1 million in the same period last year to a profit of $48.21 million. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.18, higher than the expected $0.16—the improvement in profitability carries much more weight than the slight revenue shortfall.
USDC data also points clearly: end-of-period circulation was $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year but down 4.8% quarter-over-quarter, with market share dropping to 27%. The reserve yield at quarter-end was 3.5%, while average circulation hit a new high of $76.5 billion. On-chain transaction volume surged 151% year-over-year to $14.8 trillion—even though the total stablecoin market cap has surpassed $310 billion and growth is slowing toward 2026, Circle's leadership in on-chain settlement depth remains unshaken.
However, Arc is the true value anchor of this financial report and the absolute core of the market's repricing after the report.
Arc is scheduled to officially launch its public mainnet on September 16, with over 100 institutions and ecosystem builders already participating in private mainnet testing. The list of founding validators is enough to convince any observer—BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa—11 Wall Street-level institutions are all included. BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund to Arc, integrating native USDC to enable institutional investors to complete subscriptions, redemptions, and capital deployment within the same chain environment; DTCC plans to realize tokenization of custodial assets on Arc starting in the second half of 2027. Circle's payment network annualized transaction volume has reached $14.7 billion, a 76% quarter-over-quarter increase, with 175 financial institutions connected. The full-year other income guidance has been sharply raised from $150 million–$170 million to $310 million–$330 million, directly stemming from the recognition of ARC token presale revenue—all of this points to Arc no longer being a concept but an imminent institutional-grade financial infrastructure.
Market reactions also confirm certainty amid divergence: after the earnings report, the stock price rose over 8% pre-market but turned to a nearly 3% decline during the session, showing clear Wall Street division. Morgan Stanley issued a "reduce" rating with a $38 price target, concerned about USDC circulation shrinkage and pressure on transaction-based income; TD Cowen gave a "buy" rating with an $82 price target. But regardless of short-term ratings, the new on-chain institutional finance track opened by Arc has truly been recognized by the market.
For the storage sector, Arc's launch means Wall Street has officially built a new on-chain settlement and tokenization infrastructure—stablecoin settlement, asset tokenization, and institutional finance are advancing simultaneously, which is a long-term institutional positive for the crypto industry. But for hardware-centric narratives like SanDisk, the transmission path is limited: storage logic remains dominated by AI demand and supply shortages; Arc changes the settlement layer, not the compute layer. SanDisk's 1337 short position logic has not been shaken by Circle's earnings report; the short-term negative from guidance below expectations is still fermenting. Arc is a long-term narrative, SanDisk is a short-term fundamental—these two should not be conflated in trading, and this is a judgment we must affirm.
#CircleEarnings #ArcMainnet #InstitutionalOnChainFinance #StorageAndSettlementSeparation Two hours ago, the 65K level was closely watched and it still hasn't been surpassed, but the bullish camp has already turned the divergence into a clear condition: whether it can turn this level from resistance into support.
WWG believes that once $BTC stands back above 65K, the liquidity above will pull the price toward 67K; Yekoi also judges that the bullish continuation pattern remains, continuing to pyramid up with small positions, while reminding that there might be a pullback after the European and American sessions open. Unity Academy, however, is reluctant to bet near the key daily moving average: only follow if it is accepted upwards, avoid if it falls back below the moving average.
The publicly verifiable capital flow is slightly bullish: Farside data shows that the latest daily net inflow for the US spot $BTC ETF is $244.4 million, positive for three consecutive days. Overall judgment: capital flow supports a rebound, but the price has not yet completed a breakout confirmation; only if 65K turns into support will we continue to look toward 67K, otherwise it will still be treated as range-bound oscillation. Will you wait for a stable breakout to follow, or wait for a pullback to buy in?
Multiple altcoin technical setups lack official catalysts, and $HEI has also been exited with a small profit due to retesting and losing support, so no opportunities are listed this round.
This is only a summary of opinions and information, not investment advice 🚨 Dormant Bitcoin Is Flowing to Coinbase—But U.S. Demand Remains Weak
Bitcoin continues to trade near $64K, but on-chain data reveals a notable shift beneath the surface.
📊 Coinbase net inflows surged nearly 838% above the 30-day average, driven primarily by 3–7-year-old BTC moving back on-chain. Spending from the 3–5 year cohort alone exceeded $367M, suggesting long-dormant holders have become increasingly active.
In contrast, Binance recorded mixed inflows and outflows over the same period, indicating this wave of older coins is largely Coinbase-specific rather than a market-wide exchange trend.
⚠️ Another signal is also weakening. The NVT Golden Cross has dropped sharply, implying network activity is cooling relative to Bitcoin's price. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium has remained negative, showing that U.S. spot demand has yet to strengthen enough to absorb the incoming supply.
💡 Taken together, the data points to consolidation rather than a strong directional trend. Unless Coinbase inflows begin to normalize or the Coinbase Premium turns positive, Bitcoin may continue trading in a relatively quiet range.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Coinbase #Binance #OnChain #Crypto #Whales #NVT #MarketUpdate #BlockchainOn the day gold hit a new high, someone added short positions up to 24 million.
From yesterday to today, GOLD on Hyperliquid reached a peak of $4303.5, the highest since June 18, now back to 4259.3, still up 2.9% in 24 hours. The spot market is even more active, with a single-day increase of 4.2%, the strongest in five months.
Most people are discussing whether to chase the price now. An address starting with 0x84a is doing the exact opposite.
In the past 24 hours, it opened 2199.9 new GOLD short contracts between 4261.2 and 4300, with a transaction amount of about $9.423 million and a weighted average price of 4283.4. Note this price level, basically adding near the peak.
More interestingly, it didn’t start today. On August 4, when GOLD was between 4058 and 4065, it began shorting. Then it kept adding as the price rose, adding more after each increase. Now, it has 5799.8 short contracts with 7x leverage, position value about $24.699 million, average entry price 4156.4, overall floating loss of $593,000, and liquidation price at 5888.2.
There is an abnormal detail here. Although overall at a loss, the latest high-level short positions have actually turned profitable, with a floating profit of about $53,000 at current prices. The real drag on the account is the initial base position from August 4. In other words, the initial judgment was wrong, but every subsequent add-on position was increasingly accurate.
This address is not new. Active since July 2025, with account equity about $8.183 million, historical cumulative profit of $10.5 million, has traded crypto, storage, and commodities swing trades without a fixed direction, following volatility wherever it goes. Currently, no take-profit, no stop-loss, and no further add-on orders are placed. Just left open like this.
On the same day, another group is doing something similar but in the opposite direction. In South Korea, KOSPI closed down 4.59%, SK Hynix down 10.3%, Samsung Electronics down 6.3%. On-chain SKHX currently at 1061.5, down 10.6% in 24 hours. In the last four hours, five whales opened or added positions totaling about $9.077 million, all currently at a floating loss. The largest is a long position of 2394.8 contracts at an average price of 1073.5, liquidation price 1016.8, only 4.2% away from the current price.
On one side, gold surges with someone stubbornly holding shorts; on the other, Korean stocks crash with people lining up to catch the falling knife. Both groups are betting on mean reversion and are currently trapped.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains quiet, showing no signs of volatility.
I’ve always thought that adding positions against the trend is quite divisive. It can be the dumbest move or the most profitable, depending solely on whether you have enough capital to hold until your judgment is realized. This gold short account has over eight million in equity, positions over twenty-four million, and a liquidation price still at 5888; numerically, it can indeed hold on.
But holding on doesn’t mean being right. What do you think will be the final outcome of this position? #Someone asked: ETH only rose 1.85% today, is it worth hyping?
It is. Because what’s rising isn’t the price, it’s the "non-fungibility" of $ETH.
To give an analogy—
$SOL is like a newly opened highway: fast, cheap, less traffic jams, but the bridges aren’t finished yet, and sometimes the toll booths close at midnight;
BNB Chain is like a mall’s own escalator: convenient, but if you want to move it, the property management won’t be happy;
Ethereum is like the foundation of the old CBD: a bit slower, gas fees a bit higher (now reduced to a few cents thanks to L2), but 80% of the city’s banks, vaults, pawnshops, and securities exchanges are built on this land.
Behind today’s 2% rise, three things are happening simultaneously:
Spot ETFs have had net inflows for two consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA historically accumulating nearly $8.7 billion
In Q1, L2 + mainnet monthly active addresses reached 13.2 million, up 86% year-over-year, with over 200 million transactions; more users are coming, yet fees are being reduced by scaling—this is typical "early internet loss leader" behavior
Glamsterdam / Hegota upgrades are on the way, mainnet TPS is pushing toward the ten-thousands, and L2 data rent will later flow back to a layer of burning—equivalent to upgrading the office building rental model once more
So don’t just look at who rose 8% or 20% today.
Altcoins compete on "who’s crazier this round," ETH competes on "whether this building will still stand ten years from now." $ETH Currently, BTC is consolidating around $64,000, nearly halving from last year's peak, while the US stock market keeps hitting new highs under the AI narrative. This decoupling has lasted for months, indicating that capital is prioritizing traditional risk assets over crypto.
The phased inflow into ETFs is a positive signal, but the scale is still far from enough to reverse the major trend. Ethereum is relatively weaker, and altcoins show clear divergence—only a few with narratives or fundamental support can resist the decline, while most remain under pressure.
The real key going forward is macro: whether the Federal Reserve truly shifts policy and whether the CLARITY Act can make substantial progress before recess. In the short term, continued range-bound volatility is likely, and a directional breakout requires a clearer catalyst. $ETH #沉睡比特币案迎行业机构介入 Thursday, August 6 | Night before Nonfarm Payrolls
Fear and Greed Index: 25 - Extreme Fear
Gold is breaking out — this is a signal
Bitcoin holds steady above $64,000, Ethereum returns to $1,900 (up 1.57%, leading gains again). U.S. stocks take a breather after hitting record highs. But the real highlight is gold: surging to a historic high of $4,362. What does this mean for the crypto market? The key lies in the driving logic behind gold's surge.
Gold is front-running a rate cut
Gold's surge is mainly driven by two factors: weakening U.S. labor market signals and a weaker dollar (DXY falling below 100). Gold is the purest bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut — it is pricing in tomorrow’s dovish employment data in advance. When gold soars on rate cut expectations while the dollar falls, it is an exact signal of macro liquidity shifting toward easing.
This is the macro backdrop the crypto market has been waiting for, and why BTC can hold firm above $64,000 and ETH can return to $1,900 without pulling back.
Tomorrow will be the moment of confirmation
All eyes are now on Friday’s July Nonfarm Payroll report (8:30 AM ET). Gold has already positioned for “weak” data. Today’s initial jobless claims also rose (forecast at 202,000).
Weak employment data = dovish macro logic (oil price down + dollar down + labor weakness) fully realized = crypto market will push toward $66,000–$68,000. The only risk is if the data unexpectedly comes in strong, breaking dovish expectations.
Key levels for BTC
$64,000 — already defended, must hold above this level • Next target $66,000
ETH
$1,900 (recovered) • Target $2,000
Gold hits historic highs, dollar falls, crypto market holds the line before Nonfarm data release. Don’t bet on the data direction prematurely — let the 8:30 AM ET data decide, keep an eye on the $64,000 support level. 金店门口最近又热闹了。 有人看中一只镯子，听完报价又放了回去；有人翻出家里的旧金饰，盘算现在卖掉值多少；还有人本来只是路过，看到“黄金突破4300美元”，心里突然多出一句：是不是又错过了？ 8月6日，国际现货黄金盘中突破每盎司4300美元，随后在高位盘整。这是一个醒目的价格节点，却不是一张通往下一个高点的保证书。 它更像一道放大镜：一边是市场对利率、美元、央行购金和避险需求的重新定价，另一边是普通人对“贬值”“错过”和“安全感”的集中焦虑。 【4300美元，到底是什么价格】 先要拆开一个最容易混淆的概念。 热搜里的4300美元，指的是国际现货黄金每盎司报价。它不是国内金店每克金饰的价签，也不等于你今天买入、明天卖出就能按同样涨幅结算。 从国际盘面到国内柜台，中间还要经过汇率、品牌溢价、工艺费、渠道成本和回收折价。两个人在同一天进店，一个买投资金条，一个买复杂工艺的金饰，他们买到的其实不是同一种东西。 前者更接近金价本身，后者还包含设计、加工和情绪价值。日后回收时，那些买入时很贵的工费，往往不会原样返回。 所以，看见4300美元就立刻问“金饰还能不能买”，就像看到小麦期货涨了，马上问明天$MU is currently in a neutral to slightly low position—not the lowest (29% pullback from the 52-week high), nor a position chasing highs. Core logic: Forward P/E 5.77 vs analyst median target of $1,550, fundamentally extremely undervalued; technically oscillating within the $850–$960 large range, RSI 48 neutral, no directional signal.⚡ Bitcoin doesn't run on machines alone—it runs on people.
When most people think about Bitcoin mining, they picture rows of noisy ASICs inside massive warehouses.
What they don't see are the engineers, electricians, technicians, software developers, and energy experts working behind the scenes to keep the network running 24/7.
Mining isn't just plugging in hardware.
It's designing power systems, managing cooling, monitoring performance, repairing equipment, and building software that keeps thousands of machines online with minimal downtime.
As the industry grows, so does the demand for skilled talent. Companies are investing in training, developing more efficient mining chips, improving energy management, and pushing innovation in automation and high-performance computing.
Many of the breakthroughs born in Bitcoin mining are already influencing the broader data center industry.
At its core, Bitcoin mining isn't only about hashrate.
It's about the people who build, maintain, and improve the infrastructure that keeps the world's most decentralized financial network secure every single day.
Behind every block mined is a team making it possible.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #Mining #Crypto #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #ADPCoolsFedSplit
#DailyOrbit Interpretation of SanDisk's impressive financial report: 10 billion in buybacks as a foundation, short-term market remains uncertain, performance expected to surpass expectations, and with the support of 10 billion buybacks, SanDisk remains lukewarm. $SNDK Solid financial reports are solid. Last quarter, profits went wild, with revenue and profits far exceeding institutional expectations, and AI server storage orders directly boosted performance. The company has plenty of spare cash on hand, directly approved a $14 billion buyback quota, and with unused funds, can now spend a total of $15.5 billion to buy back its own shares. Simply put: the boss thinks their own stock price is cheap now and is bullish on their company in the long term. $MU Why did the stock price fall after the good news came out? The issue isn't how much you earned in the past, but that your earnings for the next quarter haven't been met. Previously, the stock price had already surged in advance, and everyone was hoping it would continue to explode, but next quarter's revenue and gross margin expectations fell short of the market's high expectations. Old funds immediately took advantage of the positive news to cash in and ran away, with profit-taking positions frantically dumped. What is the purpose of the 14 billion yuan buyback? First, long-term benefits: Slowly buying back stocks, reducing shares and increasing per-share value can firmly support the bottom, making endless crashes unlikely and insuring long-term holdings. Second, short-term ineffectiveness: Right now, the market is only focused on next quarter's growth, and buybacks can't stop short-term sell-offs, so most rebounds are just surges and pullbacks. $SKHYNIX #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization added. Follow-up conclusion: SanDisk's revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, with its AI storage business driving a surge in performance, and the $14 billion buyback was approvedThe sharp drop in Korean semiconductor stocks is a mistaken sell-off! This storage cycle is completely different from before.
#内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？
Recently, many people have been scared by the continuous adjustments in Korean semiconductors, rushing to declare the storage cycle has peaked and the market is over.
But today, I will plainly state my only core view: this wave of decline in Korean chip stocks is purely an emotional overreaction. This storage upcycle is far from over; in fact, it will be longer than any previous cycle!
I'm not blindly bullish. Based on recent industry data and market logic, I will explain why I am so confident.
First, everyone must distinguish one thing: a stock price correction ≠ the peak of the industry cycle.
Recently, Samsung and SK Hynix have been weakening continuously, and the Korean stock sector has been adjusting repeatedly, causing pessimism to spread in the market. Many retail investors see the market falling and instinctively think the storage boom is over and the rally has ended.
But the real industry situation is not like that at all!
Currently, global DRAM memory supply remains tight, a definite seller's market with scarce supply and rigid demand. The industry's fundamentals show no signs of weakening. Storage demand from AI servers and computing clusters is a sustained, long-term growth, not a short-term speculative boost.
Traditional storage cycles were driven by mobile phones and consumer electronics like computers. After demand saturation, the cycle would quickly decline, leading to overcapacity and price crashes.
But the core driver of this cycle has completely changed!
The underlying logic of this upcycle is AI computing power expansion, driven by global digitalization and large model iterations, creating stable, continuous, and massive demand growth. This directly extends the entire storage industry's boom cycle. This is also why Goldman Sachs confidently states that Korean stocks are excessively sold off.
The biggest problem in the market now is that everyone is using old cycle thinking to view the brand-new AI storage market.
The capital is just taking a normal technical correction to digest valuations after the sector's previous large gains. This is not a fundamental collapse. Retail investors are misled by short-term K-line drops, causing excessive panic and resulting in the current mistaken sell-off.
Finally, my practical stance is very clear:
At this stage, I am not panicking to cut losses, nor blindly chasing gains with heavy positions.
I firmly believe in the long-term prospects of the storage sector and see this correction as a mid-cycle dip opportunity, not the end of the rally. But short-term market sentiment has not stabilized yet, and volatility will continue, so there is no need to bet on an immediate reversal.
The key to trading is to recognize the essence:
What is falling is stock price sentiment; the industry cycle remains unchanged.
Be patient for sentiment to recover and the trend to warm up again. The benefits of this ultra-long storage cycle will definitely be realized later.
$SKHYNIX $SKHY AMD Earnings Review → SanDisk $SNDK Tonight's Prediction
AMD beats expectations + strong guidance → falls 9% after hours
Reason: Gross margin below expectations, good news already priced in
Same logic for SanDisk tonight, bearish
SanDisk earnings release tonight (early morning August 6 Beijing time)
Expectations: Revenue $8.3B / EPS $34.24
Price has risen 32% from the low of 1123, expectations fully priced in
Price going up means short. Above 1420, short short short, live in the palace
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $AMD $SNDK $SNDK Tonight, SPCX will face the toughest battle since its listing—not a financial report, not a launch, but a lock-up expiration.
There has never been such a large-scale IPO lock-up expiration in the history of the US stock market, nor a nine-stage stepped lock-up expiration. How this situation will be resolved will be revealed tonight.
911.5 million shares held by insiders will be unlocked. Based on the current stock price, this involves a market value exceeding $100 billion. The current float is only 639 million shares; after the lock-up expiration, the tradable shares will surge overnight to 1.55 billion shares. This is one of the largest IPO lock-up expirations in US stock market history. The supply side of the market will expand to more than 1.4 times the original level.
The bigger problem is, this is just the beginning. By December this year, SPCX's tradable shares will jump from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares, an increase of more than seven times. Just over a month ago, the stock price was still $225; now it is $108, already halved. Short positions have soared from 23.3 million shares on June 16 to 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the float, with a short scale of $24.6 billion, already surpassing Tesla. The head of research at S3 Partners bluntly said: "The current big bet revolves around the lock-up expiration; the market is betting that the financial report is insufficient to offset the impact of a large number of unlocked shares entering the market."
Both bulls and bears have already taken their positions. On the day of the financial report, SPCX fell nearly 8%, and after-hours it dropped more than 4%. Revenue of $7.814 billion exceeded expectations, but capital expenditure was $18.4 billion, nearly 40% above analysts' expected $13.2 billion.
But most people missed one piece of information—the 6.4 billion shares held by Musk are still locked until June 2027. He said on X: institutions shorting SpaceX "have a very low probability of long-term survival." If the selling pressure after tonight's lock-up expiration is lower than expected, the 34% short position itself is fuel for a short squeeze.
The expectation of oversupply has already been priced in. If there is a deviation from expectations, which direction will it go?
Tonight's lock-up expiration is the first real big test since SPCX's listing. The test is not about fundamentals, but everyone's prediction of the "liquidity shock." If insiders sell heavily, the stock price will be under pressure; if selling pressure is lower than expected, shorts may be squeezed.
Either way, tonight SPCX will send a clear signal to the market.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧
$SPCX $SPCX (SpaceX) Comprehensive Trend Analysis
⚠️ Information is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. This stock is highly volatile, with a peak unlocking period and high short positions, classified as a high-risk asset. The ATR reaches 7.99, and daily price swings of over ten dollars are normal.
Current Status
After listing, it sharply retraced from a high of $225 and has now fallen below the $135 IPO issue price; on August 6, the U.S. East Coast experienced a historic large-scale unlocking: 911.5 million shares unlocked, more than doubling the circulating shares. Multiple rounds of batch unlocks will continue from August to December, maintaining selling pressure.
Short positions account for about 34% of the circulating free float before unlocking, with huge short positions and extremely fierce long-short battles; note: the percentage will passively decrease after unlocking, so focus on the total number of short shares rather than the short percentage.
Financial reports show Starlink is profitable, but AI and Starship R&D capital expenditures are huge, resulting in overall continuous losses; the market is highly divided: some institutions are optimistic about the long-term space + AI story, while others believe the valuation is still too high.
Key Technical Levels
Strong support 1: $107-108, a recent important bottom and the lifeline for bulls; if volume-backed effective breakdown occurs, the next key support is in the $98-100 range.
First resistance: $118, the first short-term hurdle; only with volume and a stable hold here will a recovery rally begin.
Strong resistance: $132-135 (IPO issue price), a huge trapped position; this level is the bull-bear dividing line, and regaining it indicates a trend reversal upward.
Technical indicators: daily chart is in a descending broad channel, all medium- and long-term moving averages are above the price; RSI is in a neutral to weak zone, no clear uptrend formed, with oscillation and high volatility as the main tone.
Three Scenario Projections
① Base scenario (highest probability): wide oscillation between $108-132
After unlocking, insiders moderately sell but no panic dumping; shorts and bottom-fishing retail investors battle back and forth.
Trapped positions above suppress the rise, while retail investors buy on dips below.
Trigger conditions: no major positive or negative news, neutral Starship test flight, earnings guidance not significantly deviating from expectations.
② Optimistic scenario: rebound and challenge $132-135
Trigger conditions (at least one fulfilled):
No large-scale insider selling after unlocking; total short shares significantly decrease, with short covering;
Successful full orbital test flight of Starship;
Management provides clear guidance on loss reduction and future cash flow improvement;
Overall strength in the U.S. tech market, with significant institutional capital inflow.
Note: even with a rebound, a large amount of trapped chips accumulate near $135, making a one-time breakthrough difficult.
③ Pessimistic scenario: break below $108, test $98-100
Trigger conditions:
Large-scale original shareholder selling after unlocking, supply shock exceeds expectations;
Starship test delayed or failed;
Earnings call provides no loss reduction timetable, capital expenditures continue to exceed expectations;
U.S. risk assets collectively pull back;
Shorts continue to increase positions, with intraday short trade ratio remaining high.
Core Driving Factors (Bullish / Bearish)
✅ Bullish
Starlink business continues profitable growth, the company's core foundation; long-term space computing narrative has huge imagination space.
High short positions mean if positive catalysts appear, there is potential for a short squeeze rebound.
After unlocking, the circulating shares increase, allowing some ETFs and large institutions to enter and allocate.
❌ Bearish (current dominant pressure)
Massive unlocking is the biggest short-term risk; shares will continue unlocking from August to December, keeping supply pressure overhead for a long time.
AI and Starship burn cash heavily, with no overall profitability in the short term; if capital expenditures continue to exceed expectations, valuation will remain under pressure.
Short positions are at extremely high levels; simultaneously, a large amount of trapped shares after IPO means every rally faces selling pressure from unlocking.
Elon Musk's personal-related public opinion and statements can easily cause additional stock price disturbances.
Key Practical Monitoring Signals
Bullish confirmation signals
Daily volume-backed hold above $118, closing without falling back below.
Total short shares continuously decrease, intraday short trade ratio consistently drops below 45%.
Unlocking data shows insider selling far below market expectations.
Starship test flight is successful, management provides clear loss reduction guidance.
Bearish confirmation signals
Volume-backed close below $107-108 support.
Large-scale original shareholder selling after unlocking, total short shares continue to increase.
Multiple Starship delays/test failures; capital expenditures continue to rise. The U.S. stock market added $800 billion in a single day, pushing the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. The core driving force was semiconductors. The question the mayor asks is this. Could the increased risk appetite of U.S. stocks lead to stronger relative strength for altcoins in the Korean crypto market? Summarize the facts. On June 26, the S&P 500 closed up 1.02% in the U.S. stock market, reaching an all-time high, with its market capitalization increasing by about $800 billion. The five semiconductor stocks led the rally, adding about $178 billion in market capitalization to their combined market. Micron rose 5.63%, AMD 6.34%, Intel 9.22%, Marvell 10.43%, and SanDisk 7.64%. This accounts for about 22% of the overall market gain. The structural significance of this incident is not simply a stock market rally, but that the source of risk appetite lies not in defensive stocks or large tech stocks, but in high-beta semiconductors. Semiconductors are highly sensitive to interest rates and respond immediately to global liquidity conditions. Their strength is reflected in the U.S. asset market.$BTC $ETH $SOL #Gold returns to $4200, why didn't BTC follow? #Italian major bank cuts IBIT common stock by 94%, increases ETH staking #Google AI senior management reshuffle, core talent loss draws attention Crypto community heads up! The 65,000 mark is within reach, and the core variable of this market trend surprisingly isn't within the crypto circle?
Recently, those who have been watching the market closely must have sensed something different: Bitcoin quietly approaches the $65,000 mark, the stagnant sideways movement of nearly half a month suddenly ripples, and many early investors have already started checking their wallets to calculate profits. But have you noticed that the signal driving this rally isn't some native crypto positive news, but rather the latest statements from Trump across the ocean?
A few days ago, he publicly discussed three things that directly hit the sentiment of global risk assets: the better-than-expected employment data temporarily dashed hopes of an immediate rate cut, the promise that inflation won't continue to surge gave the market some reassurance, and most explosively, he hinted at talks about the Hormuz Strait agreement—considering nearly one-third of global seaborne oil passes through there, if shipping volume stabilizes, the panic-driven oil price spike would largely dissipate.
Many might not realize how this relates to Bitcoin? Here's the most straightforward logic: if oil prices skyrocket, inflation can't be contained, U.S. Treasury yields will definitely rise sharply, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly. Bitcoin, as a risk asset supported by loose liquidity, would have no momentum to surge. Conversely, if the strait situation stabilizes, oil prices stabilize or even slightly fall, inflation data can improve, and the Fed's room for future rate cuts opens up, with hot money flowing first into our crypto market.
Stop focusing on spot ETF net inflows or institutional holdings data; the main market theme for the next half month is not within the crypto circle itself: every fluctuation in international oil prices will reflect on U.S. Treasury and dollar trends, ultimately concretely impacting Bitcoin's price movements. How intense is the battle at the 65,000 mark? Just look at the contract open interest repeatedly hitting new highs, and you'll understand—any external signal landing can trigger extreme moves like a big bullish candle or a sharp plunge.
If you hold chips, don't recklessly trade T; if you're empty-handed, don't rush to bottom-fish. Recently, reading international news a bit more is more useful than looking at 100 candlestick charts. This round of the market shows that Bitcoin has truly transformed—it's no longer the niche speculative asset it once was within the circle, but now a major asset deeply linked with the global macro market. This kind of market movement linked with commodities and monetary policy has been seen by veteran crypto friends before, but newcomers really shouldn't miss it this time. Hold your chips and wait for signals; after this breakout, the next milestone might just be 70,000.$BTC is building a bottom in a "boring sideways" manner, but the final drop may not be over yet.
According to the latest Glassnode report, Bitcoin is gradually entering the bottom-building phase.
On July 31, the Coldcard incident resulted in about 594 BTC being stolen. In the following three days, the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about 10% flowed into exchanges, and there was no obvious panic selling in the market.
This means long-term holders are mostly adjusting their positions rather than exiting en masse.
Meanwhile, the **Seller Exhaustion** indicator has entered a historical bottom area. However, compared to the true final bottom of previous bear markets, there is still some distance, indicating that chip cleansing is ongoing but may not be fully completed yet.
The real problem remains insufficient demand.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about 65,800 $BTC in June, marking the worst single-month record in history. Although enterprises continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, it still cannot fully make up for the shortfall in new funds.
Without new incremental funds, even if selling pressure weakens, it is difficult to drive $BTC to quickly break out of the trend.
The options market also signals caution. The implied volatility of call options has dropped to a historical low of about 23%, while put option volatility remains relatively stable, indicating the market is neither heavily betting on a surge nor actively hedging against a crash.
Historically, prolonged volatility compression often leads to a directional breakout, but this round of the market still lacks the capital engine to sustain an upward trend.
Currently, $BTC is still oscillating around $64,000.
If it breaks out with volume and holds above $65,000, it is expected to further challenge $67,000–$68,000; if it falls below the key support area of $62,000–$63,000, a retest of $60,000 cannot be ruled out.
Bottom conditions are gradually accumulating, but a true reversal still requires three key confirmations:
• ETF funds flowing back in
• Continuous volume expansion
• Price effectively breaking through key resistance levels
#CLARITYVoteMath, Senate divisions widen
#DailyOrbit Brothers, let me fully review the entire logic behind my short position on SanDisk at 1466, the current holding status, and how to view this stock going forward. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Why did I dare to short at 1466?
At that time, it surged to 1466, the market looked very hot, and everyone was hyping the AI storage super cycle, but all I saw was risk, with four core reasons:
1. The valuation had already priced in all the positives.
The market directly compared SanDisk to Nvidia and gave it a high valuation, but essentially NAND flash is a strongly cyclical commodity; price increases are temporary, not a perpetual high-growth business. It rebounded quickly over 30% from a low point, with many retail investors chasing the rally, sentiment was completely overheated, and all optimistic AI storage stories were priced in. Once earnings guidance falls short of the ultra-high expectations, valuation correction is very likely.
2. Technicals reached a strong resistance and heavy trap zone.
1460-1480 is a dense chip lock-up zone from previous declines. The upper edge of the daily downtrend channel is in this range. Multiple attempts to break above failed to hold, making it a heavily pressured area. The cost of breaking upward is very high, and the risk-reward ratio for a pullback is unfavorable.
3. Pre-earnings expectation bubble poses big hidden risks.
Before earnings were released, Wall Street consensus expectations had already hit the ceiling, with dozens of institutions almost all giving buy ratings and an average target price above 2000. In this situation, even if the earnings data looks good, as long as next quarter’s guidance slightly misses the market’s crazy imagination, it will trigger profit-taking and a sell-off. The worst thing for cyclical stocks is not poor earnings but overly inflated expectations.
4. Sector-level risks.
The entire AI storage sector has surged sharply in the short term, with crowded market capital. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks overall. If sentiment in the US tech sector weakens, a highly volatile stock like SanDisk will experience a very sharp pullback.
My entry: short at 1466, stop loss above 1510, first target 1350, second target 1280.
Current status of the short position
After entry, the intraday high nearly reached 1483, briefly testing my stop loss area. The shorts endured a short squeeze washout but did not hit the stop loss, then reversed downward.
With earnings released, although this quarter’s revenue and profit exceeded expectations, next quarter’s revenue and gross margin guidance fell short of the optimistic consensus, directly triggering profit-taking and a price decline. The low hit around 1345, now the price is around 1350, and the short position has gained floating profits.
I have not fully closed the position yet, retaining some base shorts, moving the stop loss down to 1430, turning this trade into a zero-risk position. Even if it rebounds again, I won’t lose principal, using the base position to bet on further downside.
A frank note: this trade experienced a short squeeze, which was psychologically stressful. For highly volatile US stocks, position size must not be heavy; heavy positions are easily washed out by short-term volatility.
Two scenarios for SanDisk’s future movement
Scenario 1 (main scenario for my base position): rally then pullback, continuing correction
Earnings guidance falling short will keep suppressing valuation. The 1420-1460 range becomes strong resistance.
If a rebound tests this range and fails, it will continue downward. First support at 1300, further space opens toward the 1240-1280 previous platform.
Catalysts: NAND price increase logic disproved, cloud vendors slow capital expenditure, overall risk appetite in US tech stocks declines.
Scenario 2: bulls regain control and break upward
The only case I will fully close the short is if volume surges and it stabilizes above 1480, effectively breaking the upper edge of the downtrend channel.
This means the market completely ignores the negative guidance, and funds continue to wildly speculate on the AI storage story. Then this round of correction logic fails, and I must abandon the short idea, not stubbornly hold the short.
Personal summary from Coin Brother community
Shorting at 1466 was not because I think this company is fundamentally bad, but a valuation correction after the good news was fully priced in and expectations were too high. SanDisk genuinely has AI business growth and is not a pure junk stock, but the price was overextended at that time. AI storage demand is booming, but if companies can't sustain profits, the grand narrative becomes a harvesting machine
Just saw SanDisk's earnings report: FY2026 Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, adjusted EPS was $39.25, both exceeding expectations, and they also initiated a $14 billion stock buyback. However, because the revenue guidance for the next quarter was slightly weak, the stock price fell directly after hours. What does this indicate? It shows the market is no longer satisfied with the impressive current data and is starting to question: how long can the AI-driven surge in storage demand be sustained?
Why does the stock price fall after hours just because the next quarter's revenue guidance is slightly weak, even though the earnings beat expectations and the buyback is so aggressive?
The core reason is that the market has diverging views on the sustainability of profitability for AI storage companies. Over the past year plus, tech giants have been extremely aggressive in capital expenditures (CapEx) on AI data centers, gobbling up enterprise SSDs and high-bandwidth memory. But the market now worries this procurement peak might be front-loaded; if these cloud giants' cloud service compute power doesn't convert into end-user paying profits, they will have to cut spending. For storage hardware vendors like SanDisk, if downstream demand growth slows, even if profits are good now, future performance growth will inevitably decelerate. I myself have suffered losses in the storage sector before; when the long cycle peaks and you exit a bit late, profits get completely wiped out.
What core logic changes should investors focusing on hardware and semiconductor sectors expect in the future?
We need to shift our focus from short-term shipment volumes to the companies' real pricing power and profit quality. The storage industry has always been a typical highly cyclical sector with great price elasticity. Although currently, due to the rigid demand for AI compute power, TrendForce data shows NAND flash capital expenditure in 2026 is still conservatively controlled around $22.2 billion, and Q3 contract prices are expected to rise 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter, with some SLC NAND contract prices possibly surging 120% to 170% quarter-over-quarter in the second half. But manufacturers remain restrained in capacity expansion and aggressively repurchasing shares because they deeply understand the merciless nature of cycles. If AI application commercialization lags, this profitability maintained by high premiums cannot be sustained.
So, in the upcoming market, which specific indicators should we focus on to confirm this turning point?
Personally, I will focus on two core indicators. One is the capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance changes disclosed in quarterly earnings reports by hyperscale cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta, to see if there are signs of procurement slowdown. The other is the monthly updated enterprise SSD and NAND flash contract price trends from TrendForce, to see if the high premiums start to loosen.
Data sources: SanDisk quarterly earnings, TrendForce industry reports, Bloomberg Terminal. The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Is Google starting to lose its AI top talents too?
#谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注
Today I came across news about Google's AI senior management reshuffle and the loss of core talents. My first reaction wasn’t that AI is doomed, but that this field has become so competitive that even Google might not be able to retain its people.
In the past, companies were busy competing over models, but now even researchers have become a resource fought over by the market. Having a few star figures in the team means a new story can be told outside immediately; once someone leaves, everyone starts guessing if there’s an internal strategic problem.
This situation really looks a lot like the crypto world.
We constantly complain that project teams rely on their backgrounds to hype things up, and the US AI market isn’t much different. Before real products and revenues fully emerge, the core team list is almost like half a financial report.
I don’t think Google AI will fail just because a few people leave; the assets and cash are still there. But the continuous talent turnover and repeated organizational restructuring at least show it’s not as stable inside as outsiders think.
The AI story can still be told, but in the future, just shouting about investment might not be enough.
With so much money spent, sooner or later the market will seriously account for what has actually been left behind.