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$SPCX Most people are still debating "whether the unlock will crash the market" and "how much it will crash," which is too superficial.
What really deserves attention is: high short positions encountering a sudden doubling of floating shares.
Previously, SpaceX's violent volatility was largely due to "extreme scarcity."
Only about 5% of the shares were truly tradable. Shorts couldn't borrow enough shares, so any positive news easily squeezed them out. Now, the unlock directly shatters this scarcity. Shorts finally have shares to cover, and early holders can cash out. This is not simply "more sell orders," but a shift in the market microstructure from "scarcity premium" to "supply testing."
Trading can be viewed simply in two layers:
If after today's unlock volume surges but the price holds around 105-108, or even quickly recovers above 110, it indicates support remains, offering a short-term rebound opportunity, with the next resistance around 115-118.
If volume surges and the price breaks below 105 without recovery, selling pressure dominates, opening downside space, with the next support near 100.
The earnings report has already proven growth, but the market is now repricing the "real supply and demand after scarcity disappears."
This is information more valuable than revenue figures.
There will be multiple subsequent staggered unlocks, extending the rhythm; it's not a one-day life-or-death event
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Last week I analyzed with everyone that SpaceX's decline was not due to company problems but a supply issue. Today is the unlock day, and it has been confirmed.
The stock plunged 14% in early trading. Before the unlock, the company's floating shares were less than 280 million, but this time up to 911.5 million shares were released at once, causing the supply to surge more than threefold, with the market value of shares floating on the market reaching between $100 billion and $123 billion.
The financial report itself is actually fine. Revenue was $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, better than the market estimate of $6.81 billion; Starlink's internet service revenue grew 66% year-over-year and already accounts for more than half of total revenue. The stock price still fell 7% right after the earnings release because the market was more concerned about the high AI-related capital expenditures and the imminent unlock.
This is not a lie in the financial report; the $7.8 billion revenue and 92% growth are real. It's purely a supply issue, not a fundamental problem. Early shareholders' need to liquidate pledged shares coinciding with the unlock timing caused selling pressure to be reflected in the stock price in advance. The unlock day might actually mark the start of the bad news being fully priced in.
The earnings report is a bonus, but the supply issue is the main subject determining the score this week.
Next, watch the speed of selling pressure absorption—holding the previous support means the market has absorbed this unlock, so consider buying on dips in batches; continuous breakdown means selling pressure is fiercer than expected, and it is not recommended to chase higher to average down.
Which type of dip buying would you choose: a decline caused by supply issues or one caused by fundamental problems?
$SPCX #USStocks #IPO #SpaceStocks The impact of the US-Iran situation on the virtual currency trend primarily transmits through geopolitical conflicts to oil prices, inflation expectations, and global liquidity, ultimately affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. This can be broken down into the following dimensions:
1. Core Transmission Logic
The core impact path of the US-Iran conflict is the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz → surge in oil prices → rebound in inflation → rising expectations of central bank rate hikes → tightening of market liquidity. Virtual currencies, as risk assets highly sensitive to liquidity, are directly impacted by this chain.
- When the conflict escalates and oil prices spike, market risk aversion quickly intensifies, causing crypto assets to generally come under pressure and decline;
- When the situation shows signs of easing and oil prices fall, rate hike expectations cool down, risk appetite recovers, and virtual currencies experience a rebound.
2. Market Performance at Different Stages of the Situation
1. Conflict Escalation Stage
From late June to early July 2026, during mutual attacks between the US and Iran and Trump's announcement to terminate the ceasefire memorandum, the crypto market plunged rapidly: Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000, then dropped under $62,000, Ethereum followed suit, and within 24 hours, the total market cap of virtual currencies evaporated by over 3%. The total market liquidation exceeded $180 million, with 80% from long positions, pushing the market into an "extreme fear" state.
During this phase, altcoins with shallower order books fell much more than mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with funds quickly concentrating on top-tier assets.
2. Conflict Stalemate Stage
In mid to late July, as the US and Iran continued their standoff and Brent crude returned to $90/barrel, the market showed clear divergence: Bitcoin retreated from highs but did not break key support; Ethereum performed significantly better than the broader market, only pulling back about 5%, consistently holding above the $1800 mark, with a cumulative 30-day gain exceeding 9%, outperforming Bitcoin’s mere 1% rise, demonstrating a stronger bullish technical structure.
3. Situation Easing Stage
At the end of July, after the US and Iran confirmed the resumption of indirect talks and Trump announced a pause on strikes against Iran, oil prices dropped more than 6% in a single day, US Treasury yields fell simultaneously, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around $65,000. Market leverage risk was largely cleared after prior concentrated liquidations, significantly reducing selling pressure and entering a high-level consolidation phase with potential for a breakout.
3. Key Observations for Subsequent Trends
1. Core Support and Resistance Levels
Bitcoin’s current core support is at $62,900; if broken, it will trigger a new round of selling pressure. The key resistance zone is between $64,500 and $65,000; only a valid breakout above this can break the short-term bearish pattern and open upward space. Ethereum, after holding the $1800 support, is expected to challenge the $2000 level.
2. Situation Variables
If the US-Iran conflict escalates again and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, oil prices will surge again, and the crypto market will face renewed downward pressure. If peace talks continue to advance, inflation pressure eases, and the Federal Reserve maintains stable interest rates, mainstream virtual currencies will see a recovery rally.
3. Capital Flows
It is crucial to monitor net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs going forward, as this is a core indicator of institutional capital movement and directly determines the sustainability of the current rebound.
Friendly Reminder: The virtual currency market itself is highly volatile, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties, making the market extremely unpredictable. The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance before participating in related transactions. $ETH $BTC USDC circulation and institutional adoption continue to grow, with licenses strengthening the regulatory moat; however, revenue remains highly dependent on interest from reserve assets. The average reserve yield in Q2 dropped by 66 basis points, indicating that rate cuts will directly compress earnings. The revised other income guidance partly comes from one-time or early-stage token pre-sales and cannot be fully valued as stable recurring income. The company has approximately $1.73 billion in cash and cash equivalents. $CRCL $SNDK SanDisk's earnings report this time is very strong, but the stock price fell, which is a typical case of "performance exceeding expectations, but the market expects even more."
SanDisk's latest quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $39.25, both surpassing market expectations. The demand for storage from AI data centers remains the main driver of performance growth.
However, the problem is that SanDisk's stock price had already risen significantly before, and market expectations for the next quarter were also raised high. Although the company's revenue guidance continues to grow, it does not significantly exceed Wall Street's expectations, so funds have started to take profits.
So now, when looking at SanDisk, the focus is not on whether the earnings report is good or not, but on two questions:
Whether the post-earnings decline can find support
Whether the August 13 investor day can provide new growth expectations
The fundamentals remain strong, but the short term has already entered a high-expectation phase of "good news not being good enough."
Do you think SanDisk's recent decline is an opportunity, or is the high-level trend starting to cool down?
$SNDK #SanDisk #AIStorage #EarningsAnalysis #USStocksAfter more than a week, here is an update on the BTC MVRV progress.
Recent changes:
• 7 days:
1.2192 → 1.2254
+0.51%
• 14 days:
1.2682 → 1.2254
−3.37%
In simple terms:
The MVRV over the past 14 days is still in a downward trend, but there has been a slight rebound in the last 7 days, not a continuous one-way decline.
Comparison at the same halving position:
2016 cycle: 1.3014
2020 cycle: 1.0018
2024 current cycle: 1.2254
The current cycle's MVRV is between the corresponding positions of the two historical cycles.
Whether there will be a final drop is metaphysically dependent on the next important date:
Around August 24, 2026.
(About 856 days after halving)
Continue to observe whether the current cycle evolves along the historical halving cycle path.$BTC is forming a bottom in a "boring sideways" pattern, but there may still be a "final dip."
According to the latest Glassnode report, Bitcoin is slowly forming a bottom.
On July 31, the Coldcard incident resulted in the theft of about 594 BTC. In the following three days, the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about one-tenth flowed into exchanges, and the price did not show a significant panic reaction.
This indicates that long-term holders have started adjusting their assets but have not created concentrated selling pressure.
The current seller exhaustion indicator has entered a historical bottom area, but it is still about one-third away from the true final bottom of past bear markets, meaning chip cleansing is underway but may not be fully complete.
However, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about 65,800 BTC in June, marking the worst monthly performance in history; corporate reserve buying also cannot fully fill the funding gap.
Without new incremental funds, even if selling decreases, BTC will find it difficult to quickly start a trending rally.
The options market is also unusually calm. The implied volatility of call options has dropped to a historical low of about 23%, while put volatility remains normal, indicating traders are neither betting on a surge nor paying high protection costs for a crash.
Historically, similar volatility compressions mostly break upward eventually, but this round lacks the demand to drive a sustained rally.
Moreover, in terms of related indicator trends, BTC is currently still oscillating around $64,000.
If it breaks out with volume and holds above $65,000, it is expected to extend to $67,000 to $68,000; if it falls below the $62,000 to $63,000 cost-intensive zone, it may retest $60,000 again.
BTC bottom conditions are accumulating, but true reversal signals are still insufficient:
- ETF inflows
- Volume expansion
- Price breaking key levels
#CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 Circle's financial report is out. Looking at the pre-market price, it seemed optimistic, but now it has dropped again. I reviewed the data. I thought it would be worse, but overall the data is a bit more optimistic than I expected.
From the data, year-over-year growth is evident, indicating it’s definitely better than last year. However, a few month-over-month growth figures are negative. They are:
Adjusted EBITDA -5.2%
USDC end-of-period circulation -4.8%
USDC within the platform -9.5%
My personal thought is that the last two data points are still related to the crypto bear market. After all, the bear market not only causes mainstream asset prices to fall, but stablecoin minting is very likely to decrease. If next quarter the price of Bitcoin is even lower and on-chain activity is worse, then USDC issuance will be even less, and this data could worsen.
At the same time, from the data, USDC still won’t break free from the crypto asset cycle for now, since it originated from the crypto space.
Assuming next quarter’s data is worse and the price drops to a lower level, I personally lean toward the view that CRCL won’t see significant gains before BTC completes its bottoming process; it will only fluctuate.
Finally, back to position sizing: having a position size that you’re comfortable with whether the price goes up or down is the most important. Whether it rises to 150 or falls to 50, you can still live normally, sleep well, and maintain your mindset. That’s what matters most.
All data can only be used to assist investment decisions; only position management determines whether an investment is reasonable and whether you can maintain a healthy mindset.SNDK SanDisk Latest Analysis (August 5 Close + After Hours)
Closing Price: $1,350.5 (-5.40%) | After-hours Price: About $1,250 (down about 7.5% after hours)
Key Data
• Official Close: $1,350.5, down $77.12, a decline of 5.40%
• After-hours Trading: Continued sharp drop after earnings release, hitting a low of $1,242, latest after-hours price about $1,250, after-hours decline about 7.5%
• Full-day Range: From intraday high of $1,441.76 to after-hours low of $1,242, a range of 13.9%
• Volume: 16.37 million shares (regular trading), over 10 million shares traded after hours, turnover rate over 11%
• Market Cap: About $185 billion (after hours)
Market Analysis
SNDK shows a typical "good news fully priced" scenario:
1. Q4 results greatly exceeded expectations: Revenue $8.965 billion (up 372% YoY), adjusted EPS $39.25, both significantly beating estimates
2. Q1 guidance below expectations: Company expects Q1 revenue of $10.3-10.8 billion, market expected $10.8-11.16 billion, midpoint about 3-5% below expectations
3. Stock price priced in gains early: Price rose over 30% in 30 days before earnings, good news fully priced in
4. Industry concerns: Signs of NAND flash prices peaking, hyperscale vendor inventories normalizing, pricing power may weaken
5. Hedging positive: Company announced an additional $14 billion stock buyback authorization
Technically, the price has completely broken down: Regular trading fell below the key support of $1,364, after-hours gap down directly to the $1,250 range, forming a large bearish gap. From the $1,441 high, the maximum drawdown in one trading day is nearly $200, with bears fully in control.
Trading Strategy
Main Strategy: Short on rebounds
• If the next day opens with a rebound to the $1,300-1,320 range, consider heavy short positions
• Stop loss set at $1,350 (above official closing price)
• First target: $1,200, second target: $1,150
Secondary Strategy: Buy the dip on low open for a short-term rebound (only short-term)
• If it opens directly low at $1,220-1,240 range, consider light positions to catch oversold rebound
• Stop loss set at $1,200
• Target: $1,280-1,300 (quick in and out, no holding)
Current Recommendation: The trend has clearly turned bearish, focus on shorting at highs, bottom fishing is not recommended. The August 6 open will likely be in the $1,250-1,280 range; if it continues to drop after open, do not chase shorts, wait for a rebound to enter; if it opens sharply lower, a technical rebound may occur, but the rebound is a shorting opportunity. The $14 billion buyback may provide short-term support but is unlikely to reverse the trend, and rebound height is expected to be limited.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? The core contradiction in the crypto market on August 6 was: macroeconomic easing + ETF inflows providing support, but weakening Japanese and Korean stock markets + Fed hawkishness not quelled, forming a fluctuating pattern of pressure on the upper side and support below. · Key variables in international affairs US-Iran negotiations: Trump says results may be reached within 48 hours, Hormuz shipping expectations eased, oil prices fell to about $75 for WTI and $79 for Brent, inflation expectations cooled, easing pressure on risk assets. Japanese and Korean stocks: opened lower and fell today, KOSPI fell about 1.7%, The Nikkei 225 fell about 1.3%, chip stocks (SK Hynix down over 5%, Kioxia down nearly 10%) dragged on Asia-Pacific risk appetite. U.S. stocks diverged: overnight, the Nasdaq fell 0.83%, semiconductor stocks came under pressure, but the Dow edged up slightly, with no overall one-sided risk clearing · BTC/ETH Real-Time Market BTC: Asian session fluctuates between 63,800 and 65,000, currently around 64,600 to 64,700, up about 0.8% in 24 hours. ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days (cumulative exceeding $330 million) providing support, but selling pressure is significant around $65,250. ETH: Holds above $1,900 (around $1,910-1,915), slightly stronger gains than BTC, but volume has not expanded. The $1,920–$1,950 range remains a short-term resistance level · Today's market qualification is not a one-sided trend, but an event-driven volatility: On the positive side: oil prices fall + ETF inflowsShort position opened near 1100 on SK Hynix, targeting 1012 first, with a stop loss around 1132. $SKHYNIX
This short is not because I suddenly turned bearish on storage, but because most of the short-term positive catalysts have basically landed, yet the price hasn't shown the expected strength.
Six brokerages just collectively issued buy ratings, the company released expectations of increased shareholder returns; SanDisk's earnings and guidance both exceeded consensus, yet it still fell after hours.
Even good news can't push the price, indicating the market is no longer trading on "whether earnings are good or not," but on whether such high expectations can continue to rise.
At the same time, TrendForce's latest stance also shows marginal cooling: client SSD price increases have clearly slowed, and consumer-side purchasing is more cautious.
Technically, this rebound still hasn't broken above the downtrend channel; after facing resistance at the upper boundary, it fell back again, and the trend structure hasn't reversed.
✔ Short near 1100
✔ First look for support at 1070–1090
✔ If it breaks down effectively, target 1012
✔ Stop loss near 1132
If it climbs back above 1132 and recovers the upper channel boundary, this trade logic fails, and exit immediately.
I'm not shorting the entire AI storage cycle, but after the cluster of positive catalysts have landed, this rebound still fails.The reported development is potentially significant, but it should still be viewed as a step in negotiations rather than a completed agreement. Recent reporting indicates that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a draft framework for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with final approval and implementation still subject to political decisions and unresolved conditions.
If such an agreement moves forward, the market implications could unfold along this chain:
Lower geopolitical risk → reduced supply disruption fears.
Potential easing in oil prices if traders remove part of the geopolitical risk premium.
Lower inflation expectations, assuming energy prices remain contained.
Improved backdrop for risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, if investors also expect less pressure for tighter monetary policy.
However, there are important caveats:
This is a macro tailwind, not a guaranteed catalyst. Crypto prices are also driven by factors such as ETF flows, on-chain activity, leverage, and investor sentiment.
Even if oil falls, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may not rally immediately. Markets often price in news before it becomes official, or other factors can dominate price action.
The negotiations remain conditional, so the positive macro scenario depends on the agreement being approved and successfully implemented.
Overall, your conclusion is balanced: if the Hormuz agreement is finalized, it could improve the macro environment by reducing geopolitical and inflation concerns. But whether BTC or other crypto assets benefit will still depend on their own market dynamics and whether buyers step in to confirm the move. Watching price confirmation rather than assuming a rally remains a prudent approach.
#DailyOrbit Forecast: $SNDK 1️⃣ Current performance is impeccable
Fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue of $8.96 billion, significantly exceeding the expected $8.394 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, with a gross margin of 84.6%. Additionally, a new $14 billion buyback was announced, bringing the total remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion, fully maximizing the paper positives.
2️⃣ The core contradiction behind the market sell-off lies in the next quarter's guidance
Fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue guidance is $10.3–10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below Wall Street's consensus expectation of $10.8 billion.
In cyclical sectors, capital has very low tolerance for "marginal growth slowdown," even if the absolute growth remains high, it will trigger valuation contraction.
3️⃣ A $10 billion buyback ≠ stock price insurance
Buybacks are just board-authorized limits; management can time or pause them and will not unconditionally support the stock price, so they cannot directly counteract cyclical pullbacks.
4️⃣ Previous gains have already fully priced in the AI storage supercycle
Before the earnings report, the stock price had already risen sharply, with many unrealized gains waiting for positive news to materialize and exit, a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario.
👉 Deduction: If capital continues to trade on the expectation that the cycle has peaked, $800 will be the next important test level, where most of the current valuation bubble will be digested.
The most dangerous moment for cyclical stocks is the quarter with the best performance.Within two weeks, build a position in $SPCX.
What I'm betting on is not the financial report.
I'm betting on the end of the lock-up period.
The first batch of lock-up expires tomorrow.
The second batch expires within two weeks.
After these two batches, the circulating supply will reach 15.2%.
Those who were going to sell have basically sold.
Those who haven't sold likely won't at this price.
So, my judgment is:
Within two weeks is the first major bottom phase for $SPCX.
I was not disappointed by yesterday's financial report.
What really caused the market to crash was not the performance, but the capital expenditure.
Wall Street is focused on this year's profits.
I'm focused on the next five years.
AI computing power rental is responsible for making money.
Starlink is responsible for opening up the imagination.
One is cash flow.
One is valuation.
This is also why I continue to be optimistic about SpaceX.
Updating my previous prediction:
The Rangers won't wait for the midterm elections in November.
The first target prey: $SPCX. 🚩Today's Market Guide｜2026-08-06
Recently, the market's demands for "good performance" have clearly increased. Indices remain high, but everyone has started to calculate company by company: Is business growth fast enough? Can profits be realized? Is there still room for valuation expansion?
1. High-expectation assets enter the "homework submission" phase
Overnight, the US blue-chip index rose about 0.49%, hitting a new closing high; the broad market index fell about 0.17%, and the tech stock index dropped about 0.83%, showing clear internal divergence.
$AMD's earnings and next quarter revenue guidance both exceeded general market expectations, and data center revenue doubled, yet the stock price still fell about 7.2%. The problem lies in expectations being stretched too far: the market wants to see faster growth, higher profit margins, and simultaneous improvement in supply capacity. Now, just delivering "decent" results is hard to support further high valuation rallies.
For traders, the next step in watching tech stocks is to look deeper: beating earnings expectations is only the first hurdle; whether guidance can be revised upward again determines if capital is willing to stay.
2. Capital begins seeking clearer cash flow
$DIS rose about 3.6% overnight, with earnings beating expectations, mainly supported by theme parks and film businesses. The market is willing to reward companies with clearer revenue sources and relatively limited valuation pressure.
This indicates that capital has not fully withdrawn from risk assets but is rotating baskets. High-valuation tech stocks face stricter scrutiny, while sectors like consumer, entertainment, and healthcare with higher earnings visibility may gain phase rotation opportunities.
3. Employment slows, interest rate expectations cool down again
The latest private employment report shows about 44,000 new jobs added in July, significantly lower than June's 95,000 and below market expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.615%, and the market's probability of a September rate hike dropped from about 68% at the start of the week to 55%.
In the short term, reduced interest rate pressure benefits gold, bonds, and some growth assets; the risk is direct: if employment data continues to deteriorate rapidly, the market will start worrying about corporate profits and consumer demand. The employment report released on Friday may become the biggest volatility trigger for the rest of the week.
4. $BTC shows a "capital inflow, price sluggish" state
$BTC is currently near $64,600, with a daily increase of about 1.1%, overall still pressured to oscillate repeatedly around $65,000. Institutional capital demand remains resilient, but retail participation is weak, so the price lacks sustained acceleration power.
Today's key observation is the quality of the breakout near $65,000. If the price breakout is accompanied by a simultaneous increase in spot trading volume, the trend will have better continuity; if leverage sentiment heats up quickly but spot follow-through is insufficient, the probability of a spike and pullback increases.
5. After yen intervention, policy follow-up is still to be seen
The yen currently stabilizes around 157.7. The previous joint intervention temporarily stopped unilateral depreciation, but the impact of intervention is usually short-lived, and the follow-up depends on whether Japanese interest rate expectations continue to rise.
If the yen continues to strengthen, global carry trades may further contract, and Japanese export stocks and high-valuation growth assets are likely to be affected. The forex market line is worth observing together with tech stock trends today.
Today's trading rhythm
Before Friday's employment report release, one-sided positions should not be too heavy. Watch tech stocks for post-earnings support strength, BTC for the quality of the $65,000 breakout, and the yen for whether a new trading range forms between 157–158.
Related symbols:
$AMD: Pricing barometer for high-expectation tech assets, focus on capital support in the $470–500 range after earnings-driven decline.
$BTC: Clear divergence between institutional capital demand and price consolidation, $65,000 is the current core observation level.
$JPY: Policy intervention and rate hike expectations jointly affect carry trades, potentially further transmitting to Japanese stocks and global growth assets.
This article only provides a market observation framework and does not constitute investment advice.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SPCX 闪迪财报出来了
$SNDK
本季业绩 ✅ 无可挑剔，营收、EPS、毛利率全面大超预期
全年业绩 ✅ 202.5亿美元营收，114亿美元净利润，扭亏为盈
Q1指引 ⚠️ 中值略低于预期，市场"鸡蛋里挑骨头"
回购计划 ✅ 140亿美元，彰显信心
股价反应 🔴 "买预期卖事实"，短期获利了结
业绩本身没有问题，下跌是预期差（指引中值略低）和筹码博弈（财报前大涨40%）共同作用的结果。
对于长期看好AI存储赛道的投资者而言，关键还是看数据中心业务能否持续高增长以及毛利率能否维持80%以上。
个人认为这次深度回调是黄金坑
$SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
SanDisk's earnings clearly exceeded expectations, so why did the stock price fall?
Many people's first reaction is:
Did the earnings report blow up?
Actually, quite the opposite.
📈 This quarter's revenue and EPS both surpassed market expectations, AI data center SSD business continues rapid growth, and the fundamentals have not deteriorated.
The real reasons for the stock price pullback are mainly three:
① Market expectations were too high.
This year, the AI storage concept has been continuously hot, and SanDisk's stock price has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations. For such a high-valuation company, just beating expectations is not enough; it must far exceed expectations.
② Next quarter guidance lacked surprises.
The company's guidance for next quarter's revenue and profit continues to grow but did not meet the market's most optimistic forecasts.
For growth stocks:
Performance is about the future, not just the past.
③ Profit-taking by investors.
The stock price had already risen significantly earlier, and many investors chose to take profits and exit after the earnings release, which is a typical “Sell the News” scenario.
My view:
This pullback looks more like valuation digestion rather than fundamental deterioration.
Demand for high-performance storage from AI data centers is still growing, and the enterprise SSD and NAND markets have not seen significant changes.
In summary:
The earnings beat market expectations but did not beat the market's imagination.
For high-valuation AI companies, what truly determines the stock price is not how good the performance is, but whether it is good enough to exceed everyone's imagination. $SNDK If these figures are accurate, they point to a significant shift in who is holding Ethereum.
The main claims are:
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies now collectively hold more ETH than U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
BitMine alone reportedly holds nearly 5% of Ethereum's circulating supply.
Spot ETH ETFs + DAT companies together reportedly control close to 11% of the total ETH supply.
Why this matters
Reduced liquid supply: If a large share of ETH is held by long-term treasury companies or ETFs, less ETH may be available for active trading, which can tighten supply.
Institutional adoption: Treasury companies are becoming another major source of institutional demand alongside ETFs.
Staking impact: If much of those holdings are staked, even more ETH is effectively removed from liquid circulation while earning staking rewards.
Risks to watch
Concentration: When a relatively small number of entities control a large percentage of ETH, concerns arise about validator concentration and governance influence.
Treasury strategy changes: Corporate treasuries can change their capital allocation over time. If large holders decide to reduce positions, that could increase market volatility.
Supply figures evolve: Ethereum's circulating supply and institutional holdings change over time, so percentages should be viewed as snapshots rather than fixed values.
Overall, if institutional treasuries continue accumulating ETH while ETF inflows remain positive, it strengthens the narrative that Ethereum is increasingly becoming an institutional asset. Whether that translates into higher prices will still depend on broader market conditions, network activity, and continued demand rather than ownership concentration alone.
#DailyOrbit Risk warning: The following are personal technical views and do not constitute investment advice. Position control is the priority. Today, the trend is driven by rally chasing, not panic or risk aversion. Driving the momentum is expectations of a restart in the Strait of Hormuz + oil price decline→ cooling inflation expectations → Fed rate hikes betting on pullback. Gold prices are following a "rate path repricing" logic, not purely geopolitical hard hedging. The signal has already been given: after a strong bullish breakout, follow the trend and be bullish. But yesterday's nearly 4% surge was too strong; today's core isn't blindly chasing the rally, but waiting for a pullback before getting back in. In short: In a bullish game, but don't stand naked on the waves. XAU Analysis 1. Trend Qualitative: Continuing to rise within an upward trend. Conclusion: After a strong breakout, the rebound quality is good, but it is overheated in the short term. From below 4100, the market has been short-selling all the way up to above 4250, with a weekly consecutive gains of nearly 6%. The structure is bullish, not a false breakout or a false conclusion. 2. Key Support Level (Concentrated Area in the Past 1–2 Days) • Main Support: 4220–4250 • Hold = Breakout is effective, pullback is a buy point, bullish continuation • Break below = rally and pullback, short-term fluctuation, reduce positions and wait • Secondary support: 4180–4185 • Hold = Strong recovery not broken, still possible to buy on dips • Break below = Bullish rhythm interrupted, look back at 4100–4120 resistance • Main resistance: 4290–4300 • Break and hold = Open upside potential, Next target is 4310–4320 (near the year's open)This is really quite strange, $SNDK's earnings report exceeded expectations, yet it plummeted because the future performance guidance was below expectations 🤔
It seems the market's demands for storage are getting higher and higher, and even the slightest ripple can cause drastic market fluctuations
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK $SKHYNIX
Due to resting last night, no trades were made. Today, it is expected that SK Hynix might decline, leading to a drop in SanDisk during the early session.
Moreover, with the earnings report released, for the entire fiscal year 2026, SanDisk's revenue reached $20.25 billion, a 175% increase compared to the previous year, indicating that the current NAND upcycle and AI infrastructure-related demand have significantly driven the company's revenue scale. SanDisk's management stated that by the end of fiscal year 2026, SanDisk had established a "leading technology portfolio" and positioned its data center business as a key growth pillar.
At the same time, SanDisk's board approved a new $14 billion stock repurchase plan, with the current total remaining repurchase authorization reaching $15.5 billion. For SanDisk, which experienced a sharp drop in July and a rapid valuation decline, a large-scale buyback is undoubtedly an important signal of confidence from management and also provides potential support for the stock price.
However, after the earnings release, SanDisk's stock price fell 5.4% during regular trading on Wednesday and did not rebound; after-hours the decline widened to as much as 8%.
Analysts believe the key reason for the sharp stock price drop is not the Q4 performance itself, but that SanDisk's revenue guidance for the current fiscal quarter is below market expectations, with the adjusted EPS guidance range basically near market expectations. SanDisk is a major beneficiary of AI storage transactions, and the market holds very high growth expectations for the company. The stock price performance shows that the "better-than-expected past" could not fully offset the "slightly below expectations future."Six months ago, every Fed conversation centered on when rates would come down. Today, that conversation has quietly flipped. July's FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but the vote was 9-3 dissenters Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan pushed for an immediate hike. Markets have repriced sharply since: from pricing cuts to now expecting one to two hikes by year-end, with JPMorgan's chief economist projecting the Fed holds through all of 2026 and hikes in 2027 rather than cutting at all. That Last month, $ETH was like someone trapped in a maze, looking up six times at the exit at 2000, and being pushed back six times. On July 15, 1946, it rushed and fell. On July 21, 1952, it rushed and collapsed again. On July 22, 1956, it collapsed. On July 23, 1955, it collapsed. On July 27, it was just 18 points short of 2000, surging to 1982, but still went down. On July 28, 1954, it fell again. Six times. Every time it approaches 2000, a relentless wave of selling occurs. 2000 is not a line, but a wall. It is piled high with trapped positions, take-profit orders, and short positions, with every touch triggering the release of chips. But early this morning, things were a bit different. What happened in the early hours: $ETH broke out of an independent market for the first time, spreading out the 1-hour moving average from early this morning, while $ETH and $BTC each went their separate ways. $BTC's scenario: at 04:00 AM it surges to 65026, touches it briefly and then turns around, drops back to 64704 at 05:00, and at 08:00 it slides straight to 64573. A typical "spike and retreat" was exactly the same outcome as every attempt to hit 65,000 in the past two months. $ETH's script is completely the opposite. At 01:00 AM, ETH started at 1894 and by 02:00 it climbed directly to 1927.76—this was the first time since July 27 when it broke through 1982 to return above 1920. Then the key came: at 05:00 AM, the price fell from 1927 to 1906, but did not fall below 19$BTC
The Last Drop of Bitcoin: Why I Believe Around $50,000 Could Be the Final Shakeout Before the Next Bull Market?
Many think BTC bottomed near $64,000, but based on the historical pattern of the Bull Market Support Band, this currently looks more like a bear market recovery phase rather than a cycle reversal.
Looking back at the 2022 bear market:
- The first bull-bear support band crossover made the market think the correction was over, but the rebound failed;
- The second crossover saw Bitcoin rebound from $33,000 to $48,000, reigniting market belief in a bull market, only to be followed by the LUNA crash and a drop to $15,400;
- The third crossover, accompanied by extreme panic after FTX, completed the final shakeout and started the new cycle in 2023.
History tells us:
The first two crossovers in a bear market often create false hope; the third confirmation is usually the true trend reversal.
The current 2026 trend is approaching the stage after the second crossover in 2022.
Although BTC has rebounded, it has not yet firmly held above the bull-bear support band. If it breaks above around $70,000 in the future, market sentiment may turn optimistic again, with large capital chasing the rally.
But the most dangerous point in the market is here:
When everyone starts believing "the bear market is over," it is often when the next shakeout begins.
If history repeats, we might see:
Rally breakout → Market euphoria → Breakout failure → Drop below support band → Final panic.
Why is the last drop necessary?
Because a true bottom usually requires:
① The market to completely lose confidence;
② Short-term holders to cut losses and chips to reconcentrate;
③ On-chain indicators like MVRV Z-Score and CVDD to enter extreme undervaluation zones.
Currently, these conditions do not seem fully met.
Therefore, I believe the $50,000 level or even lower could still be the final shakeout zone of this cycle.
The market does not end a bear market when everyone is in despair, nor does it start a bull market when everyone believes in it.
A true major bull market is often born when no one believes in it for the last time.Nearly 910 million shares held by SpaceX employees and early investors will officially become tradable tomorrow.
At the current stock price, this corresponds to a market value exceeding $100 billion.
This is one of the largest unlocks of the century.
The bearish aspects are also obvious:
• Early employees have extremely low cost bases, providing strong motivation to cash out for profit.
• Unrealized gains accumulated over years in the primary market now have their first real opportunity to be freely sold.
• A large influx of newly tradable shares will significantly increase selling pressure in the market.
• If the stock price comes under pressure after the unlock, it could easily trigger a panic sell-off and more profit-taking.
Of course, the real determinant of the trend is the buying support.
If the buying demand is strong enough, the unlock may just be a turnover; if the support is insufficient, even the best earnings report may not withstand the selling pressure.
Tomorrow, $SPCX will face its first real major test since listing. $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态
This is not a trial; it's the real deal.
Western Union did something big yesterday—they directly moved their lifeline—the $107 billion cross-border payment network—onto Solana.
The product is called Stablecard. The concept is simple but powerful.
When users receive money from Western Union, the funds arrive directly in the form of USDPT. USDPT is Western Union's own US dollar stablecoin, issued on Solana by Anchorage Digital Bank, the first federally chartered crypto bank in the US. This card is a Visa card, accepted at 175 million merchants worldwide, and can be linked to Apple Pay and Google Pay.
Previously, after cross-border remittances arrived, you had to convert them into local currency or deposit them into a bank before spending. Now, you can spend immediately upon receipt, eliminating all intermediate steps.
The global average cost for sending $200 is 6.35%, while the UN target is 3%. Stablecoins can reduce costs to below 1%. Western Union processes 285 million cross-border transactions annually, covering over 100 million users. Even if only a portion is converted, the savings are substantial.
USDPT fully complies with the US GENIUS Act regulatory requirements, clearing compliance risks and removing the biggest barrier for traditional financial institutions to enter. It launched in 37 markets initially, aiming to expand to over 60 by year-end. The selected regions are those with unstable local currencies and existing demand for stablecoins.
What's interesting is that Western Union, after spending over a century building 360,000 offline outlets, is now proactively migrating to Solana—not just moving settlement on-chain but also creating consumer-end products.
The trillion-dollar cross-border remittance market is transitioning from "cash counters" to "on-chain wallets." Western Union is the first to scale this to such a large extent.If these figures are accurate, they point to a significant shift in who is holding Ethereum.
The main claims are:
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies now collectively hold more ETH than U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
BitMine alone reportedly holds nearly 5% of Ethereum's circulating supply.
Spot ETH ETFs + DAT companies together reportedly control close to 11% of the total ETH supply.
Why this matters
Reduced liquid supply: If a large share of ETH is held by long-term treasury companies or ETFs, less ETH may be available for active trading, which can tighten supply.
Institutional adoption: Treasury companies are becoming another major source of institutional demand alongside ETFs.
Staking impact: If much of those holdings are staked, even more ETH is effectively removed from liquid circulation while earning staking rewards.
Risks to watch
Concentration: When a relatively small number of entities control a large percentage of ETH, concerns arise about validator concentration and governance influence.
Treasury strategy changes: Corporate treasuries can change their capital allocation over time. If large holders decide to reduce positions, that could increase market volatility.
Supply figures evolve: Ethereum's circulating supply and institutional holdings change over time, so percentages should be viewed as snapshots rather than fixed values.
Overall, if institutional treasuries continue accumulating ETH while ETF inflows remain positive, it strengthens the narrative that Ethereum is increasingly becoming an institutional asset. Whether that translates into higher prices will still depend on broader market conditions, network activity, and continued demand rather than ownership concentration alone.The post presents a recognizable investing narrative, but several claims should be treated as opinion rather than established market fact.
What the post gets right
IPO lock-up expirations can increase the number of shares available for trading, which may lead to higher volatility.
It's common for newly listed stocks to experience sharp declines after the initial excitement fades.
Strong earnings don't always lead to higher stock prices if investors are disappointed by guidance, margins, or heavy spending plans.
Where caution is warranted
There is no universal "post-IPO chart pattern." While many IPOs decline before recovering, many others never regain their highs, and some rally almost immediately.
A 900 million share unlock increases potential supply, but it does not mean all those shares will be sold. Many insiders continue holding their positions.
Saying "the real move happens 200–300 days later" is a historical observation for some stocks, not a reliable prediction for any individual company.
How to interpret the setup
For SPCX, the key questions after the lock-up are:
1. Does the stock absorb the additional share supply without breaking key support?
2. Is trading volume unusually high, suggesting institutional buying or selling?
3. Does management's AI infrastructure spending translate into stronger revenue and cash flow over the coming quarters?
4. Does the market view the investment as value-creating rather than margin-dilutive?
Bottom line
The sensible takeaway is the one the author mentions near the end: wait for the market's reaction instead of assuming the lock-up expiration will be either bullish or bearish. Price action, trading volume, and follow-through in the days after the unlock will provide stronger evidence than any historical template alone.
In short, a lock-up expiration is an important event, but it is not, by itself, a reliable signal that a bottom—or a new downtrend—is inevitable.What truly determines the short-term trend of $MU may no longer be "positive or negative news," but rather the market's repricing of expectations.
Last night, the market gave me a deep impression: the fundamentals remain strong, but the stock price is becoming increasingly difficult to rise.
The logic of the AI industry chain has not fundamentally changed. Tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon continue to expand AI capital expenditures, HBM and DRAM demand remain tight, and the recent market focus is still on the storage supply gap caused by AI computing power expansion. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's remarks on the rapid growth of storage demand in the AI era have once again reinforced the market's long-term optimism for high-end storage.
But why did MU still fall?
Because the market never trades facts, but the difference in expectations.
Looking at the chart:
From the 1-hour level:
* The stock price has fallen back to contest repeatedly around MA5, MA10, and MA20, with the short-term trend beginning to slow.
* The price oscillates repeatedly near the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper band resistance (around 930) failing to break through effectively multiple times.
* KDJ has entered a death cross, and the J value has dropped rapidly, indicating a clear weakening of short-term momentum.
* The price is still running above the previous rally platform, with no trend-breaking move, more like a reshuffling of chips after the rise.
This means:
It is not a confirmed trend reversal now, but both bulls and bears are starting to reprice.
I have always believed that many people tend to interpret every pullback as a deterioration of fundamentals.
In fact, this adjustment is more like:
Valuation digestion, not logic disappearance.
AI demand has not suddenly vanished.
HBM has not suddenly become oversupplied.
Global AI capital expenditure has not stopped.
What really changed is:
The market that used to be willing to give a 100-point expectation may now only be willing to give 90 points.
For stocks that have experienced a significant rise, a 10-point drop in expectations can lead to a 20% price pullback.
Additionally, the macro environment is worth attention.
Recently, the drop in oil prices has eased some inflation pressure, but the market is still continuously evaluating the Fed's future policy path. Capital is starting to focus more on whether valuations are already overstretched rather than simply chasing the AI story. Growth stocks at high valuation stages are more sensitive to any subtle changes in earnings realization, capital expenditure efficiency, or future growth expectations.
My view:
I will not deny the long-term AI logic because of a single bearish candle, nor will I blindly chase highs because of one piece of good news.
What truly deserves attention is:
In the coming days, whether this pullback is supported by capital.
If the volume gradually shrinks during the pullback and the lower platform holds steady, this looks more like healthy rotation;
If the volume expands and breaks below the platform, accompanied by continuous institutional fund outflows, the market may be starting to trade a longer-term valuation correction.
Trading is not about predicting the future but continuously validating your assumptions.
The market gives new answers every day. What we really need to do is not prove ourselves right but timely adjust our judgments when new evidence emerges.
Finally, a question:
Do you think MU is currently digesting overly high expectations, or has the AI storage rally already entered a phase top? Why? 8/6 $ETH trend is complex, let's do a full review to find some ideas.
From 7/27 to now, the trend is analyzed as shown in the chart. The thought process should be clearly marked and is executed according to this framework. Until 8/2–8/3, a rare reverse liquidity operation was executed personally, and the estimated trend drawn on 8/2-8/3 in the chart is also polarized.
My style is contrarian trading, taking reverse positions at the liquidity points marked in the chart. Only on August 2nd, when ETH spiked to the upper edge, I chose to short.
The reason is this referenced post: BTC showed two opposite daily trend results in UTC+8 and UTC time zones. If viewed by UTC+8 timezone, the target is around 61,000. At that time, BTC quickly dropped, slightly exceeding the corresponding area, instantly judging it might be following the UTC+8 result, targeting around 61,500, which corresponds to ETH directly breaking through the yellow liquidity zone. Such a counterattack usually brings a huge drop, so I decisively shorted at the 1833 floor price.
But it didn’t drop further, reduced position at 1866, then dropped to 1827 but didn’t continue, stop loss set at 1866. At that time, I judged it was unlikely to follow the UTC+8 result anymore.
Yesterday looking at URPD, found that near 63k the chip turnover exploded, with a single price accumulating a historically rare 1.15 million BTC. So, if a trade based on expected liquidity drop fails, strict stop loss must be enforced, no trading based on imagination. This trade was a bit imaginative—because the chance to break through is very rare, otherwise liquidity wouldn’t be effective.
Currently, the liquidity on the chart, except for the red area on 8/3 which is newly generated in this rise, the others are past liquidity and may be retested. The reason for not opening a position now is simple: there is not enough data to calculate a new range, too many traps.
Other reasons can be referred to in the recent ETH and $BTC posts, pure chit-chat welcome for exchange.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 In a bear market, the best at painting rosy pictures aren't the KOLs shouting trade calls in groups, but the folks in Washington writing bills.
This week the regulatory drama was quite intense: Lummis is still pushing the CLARITY Act to get a vote before the August recess, Warren jumped out to investigate AI chips and crypto investments, and the most extreme case is a crypto PAC in Michigan spending $2 million on elections, yet the incumbent still lost the primary.
But how does the market respond to all these "major positive news"? BTC at 64,638, volume cut by 51.3%, open interest frozen at 107,400 like a block of iron, FG stuck at 27 in Fear — the incremental trading volume brought by all these policy headlines is zero.
Simply put, policy news in a bear market is just an emotional placebo, not liquidity. It can't change the fact that there's no money on-chain, just like my trade calls can't move the market; so let's not blame each other.
I've set myself a "three-filter policy noise" rule: ① Check if on-chain liquidity (OI/volume) truly follows; if not, it's just hot air. ② See if it's the usual pre-recess old script (CLARITY proposed every year, wolf cry). ③ Look for solid evidence of money politics — Michigan's $2 million couldn't save a single legislator, so your little essay won't move the market either. If none of these are met, treat it as noise.
In a bear market, don't use "XX bill will benefit the crypto space" as a bottom-fishing reason; it gives you hope but not money. Self-mock: I used to believe CLARITY could bring some momentum, but now it just looks like political cosplay.
Brothers, how many "policy positives" tricked you into bottom-fishing this week? Report in the comments. Tomorrow I'll watch if volume can turn positive; if there's movement, we'll talk again.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
$BTC #RegulatoryNoise #PolicyPlacebo #CLARITYAct #RiskControlStrategy #BeginnerGuide #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanet This update highlights how quickly institutional participation in Ethereum staking is evolving.
Key figures
ETH holdings: 5,797,813 ETH
Share of stated ETH supply: ~4.8% (based on a stated supply of 120.7 million ETH)
ETH staked: 4,917,189 ETH
Staking ratio: 84.8% of its holdings
Estimated staking yield: 2.67% annualized (7-day annualized rate)
Estimated annual staking income:
~$247 million at the current staking level.
~$291 million if all ETH holdings are staked.
Why this matters
Positive implications
A treasury of this size signals growing institutional confidence in Ethereum.
Staking converts a passive asset into a yield-generating one, creating a recurring revenue stream.
If more institutions adopt similar strategies, demand for ETH could strengthen over time.
Potential concerns
Large concentrations of ETH and validator operations can increase concerns about validator concentration and network decentralization.
The quoted 2.67% is an annualized estimate based on recent conditions. Actual staking rewards fluctuate with network activity and participation.
Running both staking infrastructure and institutional services (such as MAVAN) could diversify revenue, but it also increases operational and regulatory complexity.
Bottom line
If these figures are accurate, BitMine has become one of the most influential institutional participants in Ethereum staking. The development is broadly supportive of Ethereum's institutional adoption narrative, but it also reinforces an ongoing debate within the Ethereum community: how to balance growing institutional participation with maintaining a decentralized validator set.
As always, it's worth verifying the company's filings and announcements before making investment decisions, as staking yields, ETH holdings, and deployment strategies can change over time. DYOR (Do Your Own Research).The market hit a new high, and Eli Lilly — $LLY also rose. Last night, the US stock market was indeed strong.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed above 7700 points for the first time in history. The Dow also broke 54,000, rising more than 900 points, and the Nasdaq rose 2.59%.
This wave of gains basically boils down to two things: oil prices fell, and earnings reports improved.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a pre-market interview that the US and Iran might soon reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to drop more than 5% that day, with Brent crude returning to around $79. When oil prices fall, inflation expectations cool down, US Treasury yields also decline, and the stock market pressure eases significantly.
Another main factor is earnings reports. The S&P 500’s earnings growth this quarter, excluding one-time factors from Google and Amazon, is about 27%, which is 4 percentage points higher than the expectations before earnings season started. After Palantir’s earnings report, its stock rose nearly 30%, and Caterpillar’s quarterly revenue exceeded $20 billion for the first time, all of which gave the market a strong boost.
Eli Lilly also delivered, and in a particularly impressive way. Q2 revenue was $22.97 billion, up 48% year-over-year, about $2 billion higher than market expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $8.38, while the expectation was only $6.31. Mounjaro sold about $10 billion, Zepbound sold $4.9 billion, and just these two weight-loss drugs generated nearly $15 billion. The full-year revenue guidance was also raised from $82-85 billion to $85-87 billion. After the earnings release, Eli Lilly’s stock rose more than 6% pre-market, showing the market’s recognition of these numbers.
The current situation is: geopolitical risks have temporarily calmed down, oil prices have fallen back, earnings season is performing well, and these three factors combined have pushed the market to new highs. But ultimately, whether this rally can continue depends on whether the US and Iran can reach a deal and whether upcoming earnings reports can continue to impress.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
——$LLY $SNDK Conclusion: The fundamentals of SNDK have not deteriorated, but the stock price has shifted from "performance acceleration trading" to "verifying whether high profits can be sustained." The short-term trend is still downward, and the bottom has not yet been confirmed; the mid-term valuation is starting to become attractive, but it is not advisable to directly take Wall Street's $2,500 target as a reasonable value.
As of the morning of August 6 Beijing time:
Regular close on August 5 was about $1,350.5, with after-hours lows near $1,242.
Compared to the historical high of $2,354.39 in June, the after-hours pullback is about 47%. Price history, after-hours market
Why is the stock price still falling despite strong performance?
Item Actual/Guidance Market Interpretation
Q4 Revenue $8.965 billion, +51% QoQ Clearly exceeded expectations
Adjusted EPS $39.25 Higher than the approximately $34.96 expected
Gross Margin 84.6% Extremely strong but close to cycle peak
Q1 FY27 Revenue Guidance $10.3–10.8 billion Midpoint $10.55 billion, slightly below market expectation of about $10.8 billion
Q1 EPS Guidance $44–46 Basically in line with expectations, no further significant beat
Consumer Business -32% QoQ Price increases starting to suppress end demand
More importantly, about two-thirds of Q4 revenue growth QoQ came from price increases, and one-third from volume. The market's concern is not the current profit but how long the 84% gross margin can be maintained. Sandisk official Q4 report
Bullish logic remains strong
The company has signed 10 new commercial model agreements with 8 customers; management states minimum expected revenue of about $93.9 billion, including remaining performance obligations of about $91.1 billion from post-quarter agreements, and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.
These agreements cover over 50% of FY2027 shipments and about two-thirds of FY2028 shipments, with an average term exceeding 4 years; management indicates NBM agreement gross margins are expected to be around 80%. Note these are still management guidance and do not mean profits are fully locked in. Q4 conference call transcript
Q4 adjusted free cash flow was about $5.035 billion; the company repurchased about $4.5 billion in stock during the quarter and increased the remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion, equivalent to about 8% of the current after-hours market cap. Company 8-K
Industry perspective: TrendForce expects a 4%–5% NAND supply deficit in 2026, with contract prices in Q3 2026 expected to rise 10%–15% QoQ. TrendForce price outlook
What the bears are really betting on
TrendForce expects supply growth to exceed demand in 2027, with supply tightness possibly easing from the second half of 2027. 2027 supply-demand forecast
Demand destruction has already appeared on the consumer side, with pressure on mobile phone and PC orders.
Long-term contracts can lock in volume, but long-term prices still contain floating parts, so the 84% gross margin is not permanently locked.
Current profits are likely at a cycle peak, so even if the FY2027 expected P/E is only about 6x, it should not be simply interpreted as "extremely cheap."
Technical structure
Price Range Meaning
$1,180–1,220 First support after earnings, likely tested short-term
Around $1,120 Rebound starting point in late July/early August
$998–1,050 Most important bottom area this round
$1,340–1,450 First resistance; reclaiming $1,450 would mark a stop to the decline
$1,515–1,610 Previous dense trading and trapped area
$1,680–1,730 Mid-term trend recovery confirmation level
Above $1,950 Re-entering strong upward structure
Currently, the stock price is below the 20-day moving average of about $1,458 and the 50-day moving average of about $1,700; after-hours it fell below the 100-day moving average of about $1,350; the 14-day average true range is close to 14%, indicating this is not suitable for high-leverage trading.
Future probability forecast
Time Up Sideways Down Main Range
Next 1–2 weeks 20% 35% 45% $1,120–1,450
Next 1–3 months 35% 40% 25% $1,000–1,700
Next 6–12 months 40% 35% 25% Base $1,300–1,750
Valuation scenarios for the next 6–12 months:
Scenario Probability FY27 Adjusted EPS Assumption Valuation Price Range
Bear 25% $150–175 5.5–6x $825–1,050
Base 55% $190–220 7–8x $1,330–1,760
Bull 20% $230–270 8.5–9.5x $1,950–2,560
Probability-weighted midpoint is about $1,530. Wall Street's previous average target was about $2,381, median target $2,500, but these data were mostly formed before this earnings report, and the lowest target is only $1,000, showing large divergence, so it is not suitable as a baseline forecast. Analyst expectations
My judgment: The short term will most likely test $1,180–1,220 again, possibly even $1,120; around $1,000 is a stronger mid-term safety cushion. Only by stabilizing above $1,450 can it be considered that the post-earnings decline has ended.
August 13 Investor Day is the next key node. If the company can further prove the sustainability of about 80% gross margin in NBM agreements and clarify FY2027–2028 earnings and buyback pace, the stock price may quickly return to $1,500–1,700; if it only repeats the long-term narrative without new figures, there is still risk of falling to $1,000–1,120. Company Investor Day schedule
Note: The above is a scenario study based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. SNDK volatility is extremely high; forecast ranges should be updated timely with subsequent guidance.In the past 24 hours, total contract liquidations across the network exceeded $210 million, with short positions accounting for 142 million, and long positions less than 70 million—short losses nearly double those of long positions. This one-sided liquidation structure indicates that the accumulated short positions in the market have been collectively cleared, with prices rising through passive buying, $BTC short-term above $64,700, a 24-hour gain of 1.07%. The feeling of being hollowed out is strong, and the emotional side is indeed quite strong. But a bucket of cold water is needed; a rise driven by liquidation does not mean that spot funds are flowing back with real money. When the bears are mostly cleared out, the upward momentum provided by derivatives weakens. Next, it depends on spot trading volume, ETF funds, and institutional buying to take over. If it fails to connect, $BTC is likely to rally and then fall back into consolidation. The most critical range right now is still $64,000 to $65,000. Once volume increases and it holds above 65,000, short-term challenges between 67,000 and 68,000 are highly probable; if the breakout fails and it falls back below 63,000, then first look for support at 62,000 USD, and in extreme cases, even pull back to 60,000. My view is that the short-term trend shifts from bearish to bullish, but this wave looks more like a strong short squeeze, not a confirmed new bull market. What truly determines the future height is whether genuine buying is willing to take over after the liquidation ends. $BTC Whether you can climb the steps depends on this turning point. $BTC #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 growth has been overdrawn? Breaking News! Analysis of ADP (the small nonfarm payroll)! Regarding the ADP (small nonfarm payroll) employment report released on August 5, 2026 (yesterday) and its profound impact on the global market, the analysis is as follows:
1. Core Data of the Report and Market Logic Analysis
The July ADP employment data released yesterday was regarded by the market as a milestone signal of a "rapid cooling labor market."
1. Data severely missed expectations: The U.S. private sector added only 44,000 jobs in July, far below the market consensus of 75,000 (some institutions even expected 68,000), and a cliff-like drop from June's 95,000.
2. "Low hiring" characteristics highlighted: Although the service sector contributed 47,000 jobs, manufacturing and mining combined lost 3,000 positions. Chief Economist Nela Richardson pointed out that "hiring patterns are undergoing structural changes."
3. The "trap" of wage growth: Despite weak employment, wage growth for job switchers rebounded counter-trend to 7%, hitting a near one-year high. This sends a mixed signal to the Federal Reserve: labor demand is slowing, but wage pressure in structural positions (such as AI and healthcare) will still push up service inflation.
4. Immediate market reaction:
* Rate cut expectations soared: The swap market's bets on a September rate cut heated up instantly, seen as a green light for the Fed's monetary policy shift from "restrictive" to "supportive."
* Safe-haven assets surged: Gold prices broke through the historic high of $4286/oz.
* Risk asset dynamics: The Nasdaq fluctuated amid rate cut logic and recession concerns, while cryptocurrencies showed strong "anti-inflation/rate cut benefit" characteristics.
2. 20 Tokens Deeply Influenced by Macro/U.S. Stock Logic
These tokens have high correlation with the U.S. tech sector (especially AI, cloud storage, fintech) in quantitative models and are heavily influenced by the macro interest rate environment:
1. AI Computing Power and Infrastructure (Logic benchmark: NVDA, AMD, SMCI)
*$FET(ASI Alliance): Merged by the three AI giants, it is the flagship of Web3 AI, directly reflecting the U.S. AI hardware boom.
*$TAO(Bittensor): A decentralized model collaboration network, regarded as the "OpenAI ecosystem" of crypto.
*$RNDR(Render): Leading distributed GPU computing, highly synchronized with Apple and Nvidia's rendering logic.
*$AKT(Akash): Decentralized GPU leasing, a Web3 competitor benchmarked against U.S. cloud computing (AWS/Azure).
*$NEAR(Near Protocol): High-performance public chain transitioning to full-stack AI, with founders recognized by Silicon Valley.
2. RWA Real Assets and Fintech (Logic benchmark: BLK, GS, COIN)
*$ONDO(Ondo Finance): Tokenized U.S. Treasury leader, benefiting directly from the interest rate decline triggered by the ADP report.
*$LINK(Chainlink): Cross-chain interoperability protocol, a technical hub for institutions like SWIFT and BlackRock.
*$MKR(Sky/Maker): Stablecoin protocol backed by U.S. Treasuries, profitability negatively correlated with interest rate environment.
*$AAVE(Aave): The world's largest lending protocol, with rate cut expectations from ADP releasing on-chain liquidity.
*$PYTH(Pyth Network): High-frequency financial data oracle, directly reflecting Wall Street institutional trading activity.
3. Storage and Data Indexing (Logic benchmark: WDC, SNOW, PLTR)
*$FIL(Filecoin): Decentralized storage cornerstone, corresponding to U.S. data center storage logic.
*$AR(Arweave): Focused on permanent storage, its AO protocol upgrade gives it attributes similar to a distributed supercomputer.
*$GRT(The Graph): The Google of Web3, core logic for on-chain big data analysis and indexing.
*$SC(Siacoin): Low-cost distributed cloud storage solution, benchmarked against traditional cloud providers' cost reduction and efficiency needs.
4. DePIN Physical Infrastructure (Logic benchmark: TSLA, TMUS)
*$HNT(Helium): Decentralized wireless network, a long-term valuation benchmark in the DePIN sector.
*$IOTX(IoTeX): Connecting physical world sensors with blockchain, corresponding to U.S. "Industry 4.0" and IoT logic.
*$THETA(Theta Network): Decentralized video edge computing, corresponding to streaming giants' infrastructure outsourcing needs.
5. High Beta Systemic Tokens (Logic benchmark: QQQ, SPY)
*$SOL(Solana): Currently the most liquid "technology public chain," its volatility has a long-term positive correlation over 0.75 with the Nasdaq index.
*$SUI(Sui): Viewed by institutions as a strong Ethereum competitor in the "Move language family," with clear capital inflow paths.
*$APT(Aptos): Developed by the original Meta (Facebook) team, possessing a strong "tech giant bloodline" premium from U.S. stocks.
Recommendation:
Current ADP data shows the labor market has reached a critical point sliding from a "soft landing" toward the "edge of recession." It is recommended to focus on tomorrow's (August 7) nonfarm payroll report (NFP). If the nonfarm data also weakens, $BTC is expected to challenge the $72,000 level, and the above AI and RWA sector tokens will lead valuation recovery. $BTC $ETH $MSTR The reported development is potentially significant, but it should still be viewed as a step in negotiations rather than a completed agreement. Recent reporting indicates that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a draft framework for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with final approval and implementation still subject to political decisions and unresolved conditions.
If such an agreement moves forward, the market implications could unfold along this chain:
Lower geopolitical risk → reduced supply disruption fears.
Potential easing in oil prices if traders remove part of the geopolitical risk premium.
Lower inflation expectations, assuming energy prices remain contained.
Improved backdrop for risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, if investors also expect less pressure for tighter monetary policy.
However, there are important caveats:
This is a macro tailwind, not a guaranteed catalyst. Crypto prices are also driven by factors such as ETF flows, on-chain activity, leverage, and investor sentiment.
Even if oil falls, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may not rally immediately. Markets often price in news before it becomes official, or other factors can dominate price action.
The negotiations remain conditional, so the positive macro scenario depends on the agreement being approved and successfully implemented.
Overall, your conclusion is balanced: if the Hormuz agreement is finalized, it could improve the macro environment by reducing geopolitical and inflation concerns. But whether BTC or other crypto assets benefit will still depend on their own market dynamics and whether buyers step in to confirm the move. Watching price confirmation rather than assuming a rally remains a prudent approach.The massive inflow into Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs is a strong signal of short-term confidence recovery, mainly a direct effect of the "US-Iran situation easing" as a strong booster.
US-Iran situation: the biggest short-term "sentiment catalyst." The core driving force behind this rally is the cooling of geopolitical risks.
· Ceasefire and negotiations: US President Trump announced the cancellation of military strikes against Iran, and both sides agreed to negotiate. This directly relieved global markets.
· Chain reaction: Once the news broke, international oil prices plummeted, US stocks and gold rebounded, and Bitcoin also broke through $63,000 accordingly. Among various risk assets, cryptocurrencies are the most sensitive to such news, so the ETH ETF immediately saw large subscriptions.
In contrast, although the CLARITY Act is important, it currently feels more like an "unresolved" long-term story rather than a reason to buy now.
Ethereum ETFs reacted more strongly, related to prior capital flows. In the past 7 days, ETH net inflow totaled less than $10 million, with relatively light institutional positions. Therefore, once macro sentiment reverses, the rebound strength naturally surpasses BTC. From this perspective, this rally is more about sentiment repair and short covering.
· Qualitative assessment: This huge inflow is mainly thanks to the short-term risk appetite recovery brought by US-Iran negotiations. The Act’s benefits in this rally are more "icing on the cake" rather than "a timely help."
· Key outlook: What needs attention is: 1) the actual progress of US-Iran negotiations (if it breaks down again, sentiment will quickly reverse); 2) the sustainability of ETF inflows. If next week’s data turns back to outflows, it indicates institutions are still waiting to see the Act’s real implementation.
Intraday is likely to oscillate at a high level between 1,900 and 1,927. Use sideways consolidation to digest profits, wait for moving averages to catch up, then combine with news developments to push liquidity upward again, possibly retesting the previous high near 1980.
Trading advice: Wait for a pullback to 1,895–1,900 without breaking before entering, stop loss at 1,880, target 1,927–1,950. The current position at 1,910 is awkward, with limited upside and considerable downside pullback space. In a bear market, take profits when you see them, don’t be stubborn, and set stop losses properly. (Trading advice is personal opinion only, for reference, profit and loss at your own risk) $ETH The analogy is thought-provoking, but it blends a market observation with a broader investment thesis.
Here's the key idea:
Narrative shifts can redirect capital. When investors believe a new technology or business model can capture market share, money often flows toward the perceived disruptor and away from incumbents.
Telecom example: If investors believe SpaceX's satellite-based communications could compete with traditional mobile networks, stocks like Verizon and AT&T may come under pressure because the market starts pricing in greater future competition.
Crypto parallel: Similar rotations occur between sectors. Capital has shifted over time from Layer 1s to DeFi, NFTs, AI tokens, Real World Assets (RWAs), DePIN, or memecoins as market attention changes.
However, there are two important caveats:
1. A new narrative doesn't guarantee disruption. Many highly anticipated technologies take years to generate meaningful revenue or market share, and some never do.
2. Incumbents don't always lose. Established companies often respond through partnerships, acquisitions, or new products, allowing them to remain competitive.
The broader investment lesson is valuable: rather than focusing solely on predicting tomorrow's price, ask:
Is this project or company gaining real users?
Is revenue or on-chain activity growing?
Does it have a sustainable competitive advantage?
Is the current valuation justified by its long-term potential?
Markets tend to reward businesses and crypto projects that can create durable value, not just attract temporary attention. Narratives can drive prices in the short term, but execution ultimately determines who becomes a long-term winner.This comparison highlights an important point about the storage industry: investors are increasingly rewarding pricing power and future profitability, not just strong quarterly results.
Here's what the numbers suggest:
SanDisk (SNDK)
Q2 revenue: $8.96B, beating expectations of $8.39B.
Next-quarter guidance: $10.3B–10.8B, with the high end only matching the consensus expectation of $10.8B.
Market reaction: Shares fell more than 3% after hours as investors focused on cautious forward guidance rather than the earnings beat.
Western Digital (WDC)
Issued stronger forward guidance, projecting approximately 42%–49% year-over-year growth.
Investors interpreted this as a sign of stronger demand and better pricing momentum, leading to a more positive market response.
What it means
The storage sector is no longer moving as one group. Instead, companies are being judged on:
Pricing power.
Margin expansion.
Ability to capitalize on AI-driven storage demand.
Confidence in future earnings rather than past performance.
This reflects a broader market trend seen across technology: forward guidance often has a greater impact on stock prices than headline earnings beats.
For crypto investors, the analogy is similar. Just as the market is distinguishing between stronger and weaker storage companies, digital asset capital is also becoming more selective. Assets with sustained adoption, strong ecosystems, and growing fundamentals are attracting a larger share of liquidity than projects relying mainly on market sentiment.
The key takeaway is that strong headline numbers alone are no longer enough. In both equities and crypto, markets are increasingly rewarding assets and companies that demonstrate durable growth and the ability to maintain pricing or competitive strength.[Firefly Trading | BTC Market]
ADP employment data was unexpectedly weak, gold surged, but BTC did not follow, hovering around 64000 with sideways fluctuations, with incremental funds mainly on the sidelines.
The market focus is on the non-farm payrolls tonight.
Weak non-farm data favors liquidity easing and is positive for crypto; strong non-farm data will put pressure on risk assets.
Support range at 63200, resistance at 66000.
Data-driven market volatility is huge, crypto market risk is high, manage risk well and wait patiently for the data release. $BTC #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #创作者激励 Western Digital delivered a comprehensive earnings report that exceeded expectations, but the market responded coldly with a post-hours drop of -10.67%. Data level: Overall exceeded expectations. Revenue was $3.75 billion, higher than the expected $3.692 billion, compared to just $2.605 billion in the same period last year. Net profit was $3.195 billion, compared to just $282 million in the same period last year. EPS was $3.56, above the expected $3.31. Q1 guidance: Revenue $4.0-4.2 billion (median $4.1 billion) vs. expected $4.04 billion; EPS $3.85-$4.15 vs. $3.77 expected Why can't it rise? First, the market has already priced in the "AI storage supercycle." Western Digital's stock price has surged significantly over the past year, and quarterly earnings beating expectations alone are no longer sufficient conditions to drive the stock price higher. Second, although the guidance exceeded expectations in terms of data, the extent was limited—revenue was 4.1 billion vs 4.04 billion, about 1.5% better, and EPS 3.85-4.15 vs. 3.77, about 4-10% better. For an AI storage stock that has already priced in extremely high growth expectations, what the market needs to see is a "crushing" performance beyond expectations. Third, overall sentiment in the storage sector is shifting subtly: SanDisk's earnings guidance also fell short of expectations, Western Digital plunged after hours, and although SK Hynix received intensive bullish buying on Wall Street, its stock price remains well below its June high. The logic of AI storage supply and demand remains unchanged, but the market's interest in "AI storage stocks" remains unchangedAugust International Economic Outlook: Slowing Growth, Energy Disruptions, AI Holding Strong
The biggest keywords in the global economy recently remain "divergence" and "disruption."
According to the IMF's July update of the World Economic Outlook, global growth forecasts for 2026 have been slightly downgraded to 3.0%, with a rebound to 3.4% expected in 2027. The core reasons for the downgrade are clear: energy supply chain shocks caused by the Middle East conflict and risks of trade fragmentation. Global inflation has also been revised upward to 4.7%, with energy and food prices remaining the main drivers.
Significant differences in performance among major economies:
• United States: Relatively the most resilient, growth forecasts remain around 2.0%-2.3%. AI-related investments and energy exports are important supports. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July, but hawkish voices have increased internally, and the market is beginning to reprice the possibility of further rate hikes within the year. Meanwhile, the US stock market has repeatedly hit record highs, with capital still enthusiastic about the AI narrative.
• China: Growth forecasts are in the 4.6%-4.7% range, with exports and high-tech industries still the main driving forces, while domestic demand remains relatively subdued.
• Eurozone: Under greater pressure, growth forecasts are only about 0.9%, with energy dependence and weak manufacturing clearly dragging down performance.
Oil prices have recently fluctuated between $75-$80 per barrel. Any disturbance in expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz causes sharp price swings. The market is highly sensitive to whether a ceasefire can hold and whether shipping lanes can truly reopen.
Three key points to watch currently:
1. Whether geopolitical tensions will escalate again (especially regarding energy routes)
2. The Federal Reserve's actual response to inflation going forward
3. Whether AI investment can continue to hedge against macroeconomic headwinds
Overall, the global economy has not fallen into recession, but slowing growth, narrowing policy space, and rising uncertainty are the main themes. Risk assets (including crypto) remain highly dependent on macro liquidity and shifts in sentiment.
What do you think we should worry about more going forward: oil prices or the Federal Reserve's stance? [Firefly Trading｜SpaceX]
Revenue surged 92%, financial report data improved, yet the stock price plummeted.
Root cause: AI computing power capital expenditures far exceeded expectations, combined with a massive unlocking of restricted shares approaching, institutions cashed out early. Starlink is responsible for generating cash flow, Starship and AI are responsible for future prospects, but the cash burn cycle is extended.
Short-term unlocking selling pressure remains, with high volatility;
Mid-to-long term outlook depends on Starship technology and computing power business realization.
The story is grand, but one must respect the reality of chip supply.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 SNDK SanDisk Plunged Last Night
Key Event: Earnings "Good News Fully Priced In" Style Plunge
SanDisk announced FY2026 Q4 earnings after market close on 8/5:
Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% YoY, beating market expectations; Non-GAAP EPS was $39.25 (expected $34.37); gross margin was 84.6% (expected 81.5%) — all hitting single-quarter highs.
However, FY2027 Q1 guidance midpoint revenue of $10.55 billion was below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion, and EPS guidance of $45 was also slightly below expectations.
Also announced an additional $14 billion buyback (remaining authorization increased to $15.5 billion).
Real-time Trend Assessment
Daily: Since the June high of 2354.39, the maximum drawdown exceeded 46%; after a surge to 1446 on 8/4, a bearish candle pushed it down to 1345, with further decline after hours on 8/5. The daily chart clearly shows a downtrend channel, bearish alignment, no signs of bottoming yet.
4H/1H: MACD bearish crossover downward, expanding green bars, price broke below MA7/MA25, 50-day moving average around 1712 remains far above; 1258 is near the lower Bollinger Band, consolidating weakly.
Fundamentals: FY2026 full-year revenue was $20.25 billion (+175% YoY), data center revenue up 1298% YoY, AI NAND logic still intact; but "guidance below expectations + already risen too much this year" triggered profit-taking. This is a "good news fully priced in" pullback typical of high-level cyclical stocks, not a logic falsification.
Technical Levels (shared by stock and contracts, not a recommendation)
Resistance: 1315–1350 (overnight rebound high + 8/5 close area, first repair resistance) → 1400–1447 (previous highs / dense lock-in area, likely to face pressure again if retraced here) → 1712 (50-day MA, mid-term bull-bear dividing line)
Bull-Bear Watershed: 1258–1265 (your quoted close range / overnight trading center; holding = temporary pause and bottom search, breaking = acceleration down to 1200)
Support: 1200 (round number + contract 24h low above 1167 psychological level) → 1167–1175 (contract 24h low zone) → 1000–1040 (52-week low 40.10, key long-term uptrend retracement / extreme pullback)
Rhythm Judgment (not a recommendation)
Current 1258: stuck at the low overnight selling center, earnings downside partially priced in but no bottoming signal yet; 1258–1265 is a bull-bear battleground.
Hold 1200 + stock open not below 1200 → weak rebound in 1315–1350 range; only above 1350 can sentiment recovery be discussed.
Close below 1200 / contract below 1167 → opens deep pullback space to 1000–1040.
Today's Variable: Stock opens at 21:30 (UTC+8) will converge to 1258–1315 range, pre-market futures/overnight already priced about -10%, 1258 is a relatively reasonable on-chain price, but liquidity remains thin with large spikes, high leverage is extremely risky amid earnings aftershocks + low liquidity.Complete Logic Behind Popular Coins in the Crypto Circle (Market Analysis for August 2026)
Current Market Core Tone: $BTC stands above 64000 with no volume, but no incremental funds entering; this is a reallocation of existing funds, moving from one place to another. Capital is concentrated in AI computing power and $RWA US Treasury bonds as the two main themes; public chains are oscillating and lackluster, the veteran $MEME continues to bleed, and event-driven tokens fluctuate sharply with earnings reports and news. Thirty popular coins are layered by sector, with completely disconnected upward logics for each category.
I. Market Stabilizing Cornerstones (6 coins: market sentiment base, institutional allocation mainline)
1. $BTC Bitcoin
Core logic: Digital gold scarcity consensus + continuous capital inflow from spot ETFs, underpinned by the four-year halving deflation cycle, serving as the liquidity anchor for the entire market. This round has seen six attempts to break 64000; standing firm without volume only supports the index, as funds divert from BTC to hot altcoins, lacking sustained upward momentum; as long as BTC does not fall sharply, market speculative sentiment can survive.
2. $ETH Ethereum
Core logic: Global DeFi, RWA, Layer2 foundational infrastructure, staking lock-up + EIP1559 burn create natural deflation; tokenization of US Treasuries and LSDFi all rely on the ETH ecosystem. Currently weakly following the market, funds are withdrawing to high-elasticity AI/RWA tokens, making it a defensive asset that "rises slightly when the market is stable, resists decline when the market falls."
3. $BNB Binance Coin
Core logic: Exchange ecosystem closed loop support, with triple demand from fee discounts, Launchpad new token subscriptions, and quarterly buyback burns; the on-chain BSC ecosystem continuously generates traffic, strong safe-haven attributes in bear markets, preferred allocation when funds avoid chasing high altcoins.
4. $SOL Solana
Core logic: High TPS and low fees, gathering three hotspots: MEME, AI Agent, and DePIN; Firedancer validator upgrade solves past downtime issues, institutions gradually deploying SOL spot ETFs. Market pattern: small-cap Meme coins start first when the market warms, driving overall SOL sentiment higher.
5. $XRP Ripple
Core logic: Cross-border payment compliance narrative, repeated litigation battles with the SEC, each regulatory positive triggers pulse rallies; expectations for traditional cross-border bank cooperation landing, an event-driven mainstream coin with weak trend but many swing opportunities.
6. $TRX TRON
Core logic: Stablecoin transfer essential carrier, most USDT on-chain transfers run on TRX; RWA government bonds and offshore capital cross-border flow demand support, funds prefer TRX’s low-fee transfer scenario during risk aversion.
II. Layer1/L2 Public Chain Tiers (6 coins: infrastructure growth expectations, oscillating swing market)
7. $ARB: Ethereum L2 leader, ongoing ecosystem subsidies, only risk is large unlock sell pressure; logic is ETH scaling is a long-term necessity, funds accumulate on dips, hard to surge, limited downside.
8. $SUI: Move-based new public chain, parallel processing architecture suited for AI micropayments and high-frequency trading; heavy capital bets, ecosystem still early stage, betting on future incremental expectations.
9. $OP: Optimism L2, ecosystem subsidy plans continuously implemented, on-chain transaction volume steadily rising, moves in tandem with ETH, no independent market.
10. $TON: Telegram native public chain, with a billion-level social user increment, stable GameFi and payment scenarios, heavy long-term capital accumulation.
11. $SEI: Trading-dedicated public chain, DEX low slippage advantage, rising on-chain demand for contracts and spot trading, better elasticity in oscillating markets than veteran public chains.
12. $NEAR: Sharding expansion + AI data narrative dual support, aiming for product landing to attract AI developers, an AI branch supporting public chain.
III. RWA/LSDFi Financial Mainline (6 coins: institutional core holdings, strongest and most stable track in 2026)
13. $LDO: Absolute leader in ETH liquid staking, over 30% of total network staking share, ETH staking wave continuously brings stable cash flow, top institutional long-term allocation.
14. $ONDO: RWA track leader, core US Treasury tokenization asset, OUSG US Treasury wealth management yields 4.5% annualized, on-chain RWA total market cap surpasses $34 billion, traditional asset management funds continuously entering.
15. $MKR: MakerDAO, issuer of DAI stablecoin, large US Treasury reserves as backing assets, foundational RWA base, stable market with low volatility.
16. $PENDLE: Leader in interest rate derivatives, RWA US Treasury yield rights trading vehicle, current hotspot for capital concentration, US Treasury yield fluctuations directly drive the market.
17. $ENA: Newcomer in US Treasury RWA, fast expansion of compliant channels, strong short-term capital attraction, betting on subsequent traditional institutional cooperation landing.
18. $LINK: Oracle essential, foundational infrastructure for all public chains and RWA projects, industry sentiment recovery will
1. Fixed market transmission sequence: $BTC stabilizes market sentiment → $ETH, $BNB and other majors stabilize → AI/RWA mainline leads gains and capital inflow → public chains rotate slightly → $MEME meme coins pulse speculation; once mainline funds flee, all altcoins weaken collectively.
2. Stock game is the current core: $BTC stands above 64000 but volume shrinks, no off-market incremental funds, on-market funds continuously withdraw from weak coins, clustering in a few mainline tokens, causing an index that looks good but most accounts lose money.
3. Narrative determines the sustainability of rises and falls: AI computing power and RWA have real industry and institutional backing, resulting in longer market cycles; $MEME and niche low-quality coins rely only on sentiment speculation, quickly falling after pulses.
4. Event catalysts amplify volatility: $SNDK and $SPCX earnings reports are imminent, subsequent data quality will directly drive overall AI sector volatility; macro $PCE and Federal Reserve rate decisions will affect $BTC market, indirectly influencing overall market capital preference.
5. Clear risk layering: leading $BTC/$ETH have high fault tolerance; $AI/$RWA mainline has fundamental support; public chains oscillate and are lackluster;
6. $MEME meme coins have no bottom support, high risk of spikes and zeroing out, strictly prohibit heavy positions and high leverage speculation. SanDisk and Western Digital "Double Whammy": AI Storage Moves from "Broad Rally Era" to "Individual Stock Judgment"
On August 5, 2026, the US stock storage sector witnessed a highly symbolic scene: SanDisk and Western Digital both plummeted sharply after their earnings reports, with after-hours declines of 8% and 10% respectively, marking a cumulative pullback of about 40% from their June highs. This is not the end of the industry's prosperity but a watershed moment where the AI storage sector shifts from a "beta market" of "rising and falling together" to an "alpha pricing" era focused on individual stocks.
1. Stellar Earnings Yet Sold Off: "Excellence Equals Mediocrity" Under High Expectations
The earnings reports of both companies were impressive:
- SanDisk: Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year and 51% quarter-over-quarter; earnings per share of $39.25; gross margin as high as 84.6%; enterprise SSD shipments continue to climb, with strong data center demand.
- Western Digital: Q4 revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year; gross margin 54.4%; earnings per share $3.56; capacity shipments up 4% quarter-over-quarter; revenue growth 12%; solid profit improvement.
However, the market reaction was the exact opposite. The core reason is that the stock prices had already priced in earnings expectations for the next one to two years: SanDisk's stock rose 468% this year, Western Digital over 200%. Once all the positives are priced in, "normal excellence" becomes "below expectations."
SanDisk's revenue guidance fell short of market expectations, and the flat quarter-over-quarter gross margin signaled a "peak," causing concerns about slowing profit growth; Western Digital, despite beating expectations, was benchmarked against Seagate's HDD business, with the market believing its profit improvement pace has not yet reached the industry ceiling. This "grading based on competitors' results" logic is the harsh reality of a high-expectation market.
2. Not the End of the Storage Bull Market, but the Shattering of the "Broad Rally Illusion"
There was once an absurd consensus: as long as the storage industry raised prices, companies must massively beat expectations every quarter, with the next quarter being even more aggressive. The sharp declines of SanDisk and Western Digital precisely debunk this illusion.
The cyclical nature of the storage industry has not disappeared; it has only been extended by AI demand. SanDisk has locked in most of its capacity through long-term contracts until 2028, turning the "wet market" spot trading into a "subscription membership," which weakens traditional cycle volatility but does not eliminate cycles, merely shifting risks from spot prices to customer performance, contract fulfillment, and technological iteration.
The real signal is not the decline of these two companies but that AI hardware companies like AMD and Nvidia were not collectively dragged down. This indicates the market is shifting from "doubting the entire AI demand when someone falls" to "punishing only those who fail to meet expectations."
3. AI Storage Enters the "Individual Stock Judgment Era": Three Core Pricing Logics Established
In the previous cycle, simply being at the forefront of AI and storage meant "everyone could soar"; in the next cycle, the market will only reward companies that truly have pricing power, long-term contracts, technological delivery, and free cash flow. The current AI storage sector has differentiated into three core pricing logics:
1. HBM Track: Order Certainty Priority
SK Hynix leads the HBM market share, securing customers, prices, and capacity in advance, possessing the highest order visibility and the strongest industry position in the sector.
2. Enterprise SSD Track: Profit Elasticity Priority
SanDisk, after its spin-off, shed traditional businesses and now focuses purely on NAND and enterprise SSD exposure, becoming the most elastic stock in this cycle, with an 84.6% gross margin proving the high premium of enterprise storage.
3. HDD Track: Technological Barrier Priority
Western Digital and Seagate defend the cold data moat through technologies like HAMR. In the AI inference era, cold data storage demand continues to grow, and companies with technological barriers will secure stable cash flow.
4. Conclusion: Negative News Only Kills Negative News Itself; Differentiation Has Just Begun
The sharp declines of SanDisk and Western Digital do not mark the end of the storage bull market but signal that making money from broad industry rallies is becoming increasingly difficult, while profits from individual stock differentiation are just beginning. The true bottoming signal is not that no one falls after bad news but that bad news only hurts the bad news itself.
For investors, the focus should shift from "betting on the sector" to "selecting individual stocks," paying attention to companies with long-term contracts, technological barriers, and free cash flow. Only in the "individual stock judgment era" of AI storage can one truly capture the core returns of the next cycle. $SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 On Wednesday, the spotlight for risk assets was completely overtaken by gold and US stocks, with Bitcoin failing to keep pace for the second consecutive day—stuck around the $64,000 level, ignoring the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs. On one side, both safe-haven and equity assets are rising; on the other, "digital gold" remains unmoved—the divergence among these three logics is clearer than ever. 📊 Data Speed Read · Gold: Single-day +2.8%, closing at $4,213 per ounce, the highest since June 22 (about 6 weeks). · Chinese buying: domestic gold ETFs saw net inflows for 14 consecutive days; Year-to-date inflows have dropped to 40 billion RMB (about 5.6 billion USD), still the second strongest first-half performance in history. · Central Bank Support: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings by 82 tons over the past 20 months, providing strong sentiment support. S&P 500: After briefly touching a record high above 7793 during trading, it pulled back, with about 66% of its components climbing above the 50-day moving average. Bitcoin: $64,000 is the short-term focus; Coinbase's premium has been negative for about 80 consecutive days, and domestic US buying remains absent. 🎯 Xiao Analysis: The rebound in gold is not an isolated event—continuous net inflows into Chinese ETFs + central banks' continued gold purchases represent a "certainty allocation" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks have broad support near historical highs (over 60% of component stocks have outperformed benchmarks), so risk appetite is actually not bad. The truly awkward part is the comparisonSanDisk's revenue surged 372%, so why did the stock price drop over 10%?
SanDisk's latest earnings report is contradictory: revenue, profit, gross margin, and cash flow all grew significantly, yet the stock price fell continuously before and after the report. On August 5, it dropped 5.4% intraday, closing at $1350.50. After the earnings release, it fell about 5.3% in after-hours trading, reaching as low as $1279. Compared to the previous trading day's close, the cumulative drop was about 10.4%. The day's high was $1454.09, the low $1197.94, with trading volume exceeding 16.3 million shares, showing intense bullish and bearish divergence.
Looking only at the earnings report, it's nearly flawless. Revenue grew 372%, profits exploded, Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter and 372% year-over-year. Market expectation was $8.48 billion, actual exceeded by 5.7%. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, expected $34.96, beating by 12.3%. GAAP net income was $6.903 billion, diluted EPS $43.97, compared to a loss of $23 million in the same period last year. Gross margin rose from 78.4% last quarter to 84.6%. For the full fiscal year 2026, revenue was $20.248 billion, up 175% year-over-year; GAAP net income $11.433 billion, adjusted EPS $70.88. The company jumped from last year's losses directly into a phase of high profits and strong cash flow.
This surge is not just due to consumer storage recovery but driven by rapidly growing enterprise demand from AI data centers. Q4 data center revenue was $2.977 billion, up 103% quarter-over-quarter; Edge business $5.432 billion, up 48%. Consumer business was only $556 million, down 32% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year. Full-year data center revenue was $5.153 billion, up 437%; Edge revenue $12.16 billion, up 195%. Growth focus has shifted from memory cards, USB drives, and consumer SSDs to data centers, enterprise SSDs, and AI infrastructure storage.
Operating cash flow this quarter was $7.126 billion, free cash flow $7.083 billion. After adjusting for prepayments and other effects, adjusted free cash flow was $5.035 billion; full year $8.743 billion. The company also announced an additional $14 billion buyback authorization, with $15.5 billion remaining available. Not only did profits increase on paper, but real cash flow is also very strong, and management is signaling confidence through large-scale buybacks.
If the earnings are so strong, why did the stock price fall? It's not due to poor performance but because market expectations were extremely high. The next quarter's revenue guidance missed expectations. SanDisk expects Q1 revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion. Wall Street expected about $10.8 billion, so the midpoint guidance is 2.3% below expectations. Profit guidance is decent, with adjusted EPS between $44 and $46, midpoint $45, slightly above the expected $44.72. But for a highly valued, volatile hot stock, "meeting expectations" is not enough. Investors buy SanDisk betting on NAND prices continuing to rise, AI storage demand exploding, and quarterly results significantly beating forecasts. When guidance is just "normal," capital naturally chooses to take profits.
The 84.6% gross margin may be near its peak. Next quarter's gross margin guidance is 83% to 85%, midpoint about 84%, indicating management does not expect further significant improvement. An 84% gross margin is already extremely high for NAND manufacturers.
The market naturally wonders: how long can NAND prices keep rising? How long will supply tightness last? Is this a long-term shift or just a temporary cyclical peak?
Revenue growth relies more on price increases. Of the 51% quarter-over-quarter growth this quarter, about one-third came from shipment volume, two-thirds from price hikes. Price increases can quickly boost revenue and profits, but price cycles are the biggest risk in the storage industry. If competitors expand capacity, customer inventories rise, or AI purchasing slows, NAND prices could come under pressure again. Consumer business is shrinking. Consumer revenue was $556 million, down 32% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year. Growth in data center and Edge segments is enough to compensate but means performance increasingly depends on a few large cloud providers. Profits are higher, but changes in customer capital expenditure have greater impact.
The stock price had risen too much before. Year-to-date gains approached 469%. On June 22, it hit a record high of $2354.39; by the close on August 5, it had retraced about 42.6%, and about 45.7% in after-hours trading. Valuation is built on the premise of significantly beating expectations every quarter; no matter how good the earnings, if guidance is not raised, the stock price may fall.
Core fundamentals remain strong: rapid data center revenue growth, gross margin above 80%, explosive cash flow, increasing long-term customer contracts and buyback scale. This drop looks more like the market repricing overly high expectations and valuations, not a deterioration in fundamentals.
However, SanDisk needs to prove three things going forward:
NAND price increases are not just a short-term cyclical event;
Gross margin above 80% can be sustained for a long time;
AI data center demand can continue converting into real orders and free cash flow, not just customer pre-stocking.
Overall, the performance is very strong, but the market wants not just strong results but continued outperformance of the most optimistic expectations.
Revenue and profit greatly exceeded expectations, with data centers becoming the new growth pillar. But next quarter's revenue guidance is slightly below expectations, gross margin may have peaked temporarily, revenue growth relies heavily on price increases, and prior gains were too large, triggering profit-taking. The market is not denying the AI storage thesis but shifting from focusing solely on growth rate to examining how long growth can last. The next phase determining stock price will no longer be quarterly revenue growth of hundreds of percent but whether the company can convert price increases and supply tightness-driven profits into more stable, longer-term cash flow.
August 13 Investor Day is the next key milestone, where the market will focus on long-term growth targets, customer contracts, capacity planning, and sustainability of high gross margins.
$SNDK
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 8.6 BTC and ETH Market Analysis
BTC surged overnight to test the high of 65022. After a brief rally, the bulls failed to hold the gains, with concentrated selling pressure above causing the price to quickly fall back. After the surge, there was no incremental capital to follow through, and buying momentum was insufficient. The market showed a pattern of rising then falling, with the current price fluctuating around 64600.
This rebound did not open up new upward space; the surge was immediately met with resistance, representing a pullback correction after the rebound. The market clearly feels the bullish strength gradually weakening.
No major external macroeconomic data has been released. The lack of news about a delay in South Korea's crypto taxation policy has somewhat suppressed market sentiment. Without significant positive catalysts, it is difficult for upward momentum to gain sustained capital support. After the surge, profit-taking often leads to a pullback.
This rebound has consistently lacked volume support, limiting the sustainability of the rally. Every rebound to resistance levels presents a good short-term entry point for bears.
Trading suggestions: Short BTC around 64800-65300 with a target of 63800; if broken, look to 63000. Short ETH around 1920-1940 with a target of 1870; if broken, look to 1820. $BTC $ETH