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Sandisk is currently in a standard downtrend, showing a typical weak rebound with three steps back for every step forward.
Brothers, don’t be fooled by the slight intraday rallies; the overall structure has already shifted into a downward channel.
Last night’s earnings report showed very strong current data, with revenue and EPS both exceeding expectations, and a large buyback announced, but the market isn’t buying it. The core contradiction is the conservative guidance for next quarter’s performance, causing funds to worry about a slowdown in storage market momentum, directly triggering a sell-off on good news.
To clearly outline key price levels:
The first resistance above is 1380–1420, which is a strong barrier for recent rebounds. Any rally reaching this range will face concentrated selling pressure, making it difficult to break through in one go. Only a volume-backed close above 1450 can temporarily ease the downtrend structure; otherwise, all rallies are just corrections within the downtrend.
The short-term support below is 1300–1330, the first line of defense; if this breaks effectively, the downside opens up with a target around the previous consolidation zone of 1240–1280. Deeper support lies at 1100–1150, an important mid-term holding area.
Clarifying the core logic of the market:
The recent big surge has already priced in the market’s optimistic expectations for AI storage and NAND price increases. Funds are now trading not on realized earnings but on whether future growth can be sustained.
Under high valuation, the market’s tolerance for error is very low; if long-term guidance falls short of extreme optimism, bulls will exit en masse. Coupled with weakening sector sentiment and pressure from Hynix and Micron, Sandisk’s recovery is further suppressed.
The price action is clear: small rebounds lure buyers, followed by new lows, a three-step back pattern, making it hard for bulls to sustain a rally.
Two scenarios to watch in advance:
Weak main scenario: rebound faces resistance below 1420, then falls back to test 1330 support, and if broken, continues downward.
Minor reversal scenario: volume-backed close above 1450 breaks the downtrend short-term, but returning to strength remains very difficult.
Practical trading thoughts:
In a downtrend, chasing weak rebounds is the biggest taboo.
Short positions have a better risk-reward ratio at resistance levels; don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait for clear stabilization signals at key supports before considering.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk (SNDK) In-Depth Analysis: Can the "Storage Shovel Sellers" in the AI Era Keep Racing? (Note: The following analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute investment advice.) $SNDK #闪迪财报双超预期. $14 billion newly authorized to repurchase - 1. Latest development: explosive performance, but why is the stock price falling? After SanDisk recently released its financial report, a typical "positive decline" emerged. On the surface: ✅ Significant revenue growth ✅, strong demand ✅ for AI data centers, noticeable improvement ✅ in gross margin, rapid growth in enterprise SSD business, but the stock price has pulled back. The reason is simple: market expectations are already too high. SanDisk has seen huge gains over the past year, and the market has already traded in the AI storage supercycle ahead of time. Therefore: good news must "exceed expectations" for stock prices to rise. Although the current earnings report is excellent, the guidance for the future has not significantly exceeded Wall Street's highest expectations, leading to some capital realizing profits. ⸻ 2. SanDisk's real core logic: AI needs more than just GPUs. Many investors focus only on * Nvidia GPUs * TSMC chips * HBM high-bandwidth memory. But they overlook a key issue: AI-generated data needs to be stored. Future AI development road: large model training ↓ AI inference ↓ massive AI agent execution ↓ massive data generation ↓ Requires larger storage space. This is SanDisk's opportunity. ⸻ 3. Why does SanDisk benefit from AI? SanDisk's core businessThis Q2 fiscal year 2026 financial report marks Circle (CRCL)'s fundamental transformation from a "stablecoin issuer dependent on rate-cut cycles" to a "global compliant digital finance and on-chain infrastructure platform"**. 1. Business Model Restructuring: Breaking the "Interest Dependence" and Opening a Second Growth Curve Non-interest Income Surges: Circle sharply raised its full-year "Other Income" guidance from $150–$170 million to $31–330 million. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, the market initially worried that its reserve interest income would be weakened, but the Arc token presale and payment network income have proven it now possesses strong "non-interest-based cash generation." Turnaround from profit to profit and efficiency improvement: Net profit reversed from a $482 million loss in the same period last year to a profit of $48.21 million. Adjusted earnings per share ($0.18) exceeded Wall Street expectations, indicating that post-IPO equity incentives and R&D investment costs have been effectively absorbed. 2. Regulatory Compliance Barriers: Locking Exclusive Status in Traditional Finance (TradFi) Clearing Federal Bank License Breakthrough: Received approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish Circle National Trust (a national trust bank license) and New York State NYDFS approval. This makes Circle one of the very few crypto-native companies to directly qualify as a federal banking company, significantly opening up its #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Circle obtaining a federal-level banking license is a crucial signal beyond the Q2 earnings report. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency approved Circle National Trust, and Circle also secured permission from the New York State Department of Financial Services to establish Circle New York Trust. This places Circle among the few stablecoin issuers holding nationwide trust bank qualifications, further solidifying its compliance framework and directly paving the way for institutional adoption of USDC and the Arc ecosystem.
Reviewing the full operating data for Q2 2026, Circle's total revenue and reserve income reached $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA hit $143 million, up 8% year-over-year, with a post-channel share profit margin of 41%. Continuing operations net profit recorded $48.21 million, a strong reversal from a significant loss in the same period last year, reflecting a tangible recovery in profitability. Much of this net profit improvement stems from the expansion of USDC circulation and increased non-interest income. The market can see USDC's end-of-period circulation fixed at $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year growth; on-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, a substantial 151% year-over-year increase; active wallet numbers rose 24% to 7 million; and stablecoins maintained a 27% overall market share.
However, quarterly sequential data shows some phase changes: USDC's end-of-quarter circulation fell 4.8% compared to the end of Q1, and on-chain transaction volume dropped from $21.5 trillion to $14.8 trillion, a 31% sequential decline. The average USDC circulation this quarter was $76.5 billion. After the earnings release, the capital market gave direct feedback: CRCL rose pre-market driven by new narratives but dropped 10% after the official open. This divergence essentially reflects the market's trade-off between the current business growth pace and future new business potential. The pre-market rally anchored on the new story brought by Arc, while the post-open pullback priced in a short-term slowdown in USDC growth.
But we should not focus solely on short-term fluctuations in the stablecoin's existing business. Circle has completed rapid iterations across multiple business lines. Circle Payments Network's annualized transaction volume has reached $14.7 billion, a 76% increase from the previous quarter, with 175 financial institutions connected. The Agent Stack product launched in May has surpassed 900 paid service projects, with 99.3% of x402 agent payments settled using USDC. This product matrix has established a commercial payment closed loop, and USDC's real-world application scenarios continue to expand.
Another major variable comes from the Arc network, which has completed its private mainnet phase, with the public mainnet officially launching on September 16. The network's founding validator lineup is highly prestigious, including BlackRock, DTCC, Standard Chartered Bank, Visa, Mastercard, and Galaxy, all participating in node operations. BlackRock will also deploy the BUIDL fund on the Arc network, and DTCC will conduct asset tokenization custody work on this chain. Arc's core value lies in connecting stablecoin settlement, tokenized assets, and institutional-grade financial infrastructure, opening many previously uncovered institutional use cases for USDC. This is the key driver for USDC to reopen its growth curve.
The earnings report also includes an upwardly revised guidance worth noting: Circle raised its full-year other income guidance to a range of $310 million to $330 million, nearly doubling the previous target of $150 million to $170 million. This increase includes income from the Arc Token presale. The RLDC profit margin guidance was also revised upward to 41.7%–43.7%, from the previous 38%–40%, reflecting management's continued optimism about future profitability.
Going forward, for CRCL to achieve sustained market strength, the core depends on delivering three key metrics: continuous growth in USDC circulation, further expansion of payment and subscription business revenue, and continued improvement in overall profit margins. When these indicators rise simultaneously, it signifies a substantial increase in the real usage rate of Circle's stablecoin foundational services and a clear turning point in fundamentals.
The deployment of the Arc network combined with the full federal banking license provides Circle not only with new revenue sources but also elevates USDC from an ordinary on-chain stablecoin to a core medium for tokenized asset settlement among traditional large institutions. The deep involvement of traditional financial giants like BlackRock and DTCC in network operations indicates that traditional capital has embraced this on-chain financial system. USDC can leverage Arc to meet substantial real-world asset flow demands. As the institutional ecosystem gradually takes shape, USDC's demand base will further expand, and CRCL itself will simultaneously benefit from growth in business scale and profitability, possessing ample upside potential and investment value.cxmt/usdt
Long-term Short Logic for Changxin Technology
Core Reasons for Long-term Shorting of Changxin Technology
1. The Inevitable Strong Cycle of Memory Chips, Currently at a Peak
DRAM is a commodity with a complete 3-4 year cycle: price increase → capacity expansion → oversupply → price crash and industry losses.
The current high profits come from overseas giants controlling production combined with AI-driven price increases, not normal profitability.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will restart general DRAM capacity expansion, combined with Changxin's own continuous expansion, leading to a significant supply release in 2027-2028. Once supply exceeds demand, DRAM prices will sharply decline in the short term, and company profits will quickly shrink from hundreds of billions to even return to losses.
In historical memory downturn cycles, overseas giants' profits have dropped by over 80%; Changxin's factory lines are newer with higher depreciation pressure, making it less resilient than the overseas top three during downturns. Management's IPO roadshow also warned: do not linearly extrapolate current high profits into the future.
2. Valuation Includes Cycle Premium + Domestic Substitution Sentiment Premium
A static PE of 30x looks not high, but this is the PE calculated at the cycle peak profit. Once profits decline, PE will be passively pushed up, leading to a Davis double whammy: performance decline + valuation collapse.
Overseas SK Hynix and Micron have PE of only 12-20x during prosperous phases; Changxin's market cap is significantly higher than overseas peers, containing a large A-share domestic substitution sentiment premium, which will face valuation reversion pressure once sentiment fades.
3. Technological Gap, Difficult to Capture AI Storage's Highest Profit Pool HBM
Most of Changxin's revenue and profit come from ordinary DDR5 and LPDDR general memory; high-margin HBM (AI high-bandwidth memory) is still in R&D with no large-scale commercial shipments.
The highest premium AI storage business is occupied by SK Hynix and Micron; Changxin mainly competes in the fierce ordinary DRAM track, with product structure shortcomings that will be further amplified during the downturn.
4. Heavy Asset Model, Continuous Huge Capital Expenditure and High Depreciation
Wafer fabs are a continuous cash-burning track, requiring constant investment for line iteration and capacity expansion. Changxin's lines are newer with huge annual equipment depreciation. If chip prices fall and capacity utilization declines, depreciation will directly erode profits. Much of the cash flow earned during the boom must be reinvested in factory iteration, making it hard to fully convert into shareholder free cash flow.
5. Unlocking Chip Supply Pressure (Complete Unlock Timeline)
Listing Base Date: 2026-07-27
1. 2027-01-27 (6 months after listing): 70% of offline placement restricted shares unlock, about 1.5 billion shares, first wave of institutional chip release.
2. 2027-07-27 (12 months after listing): social security and pension strategic placement shares unlock, about 660 million shares, long-term institutions can sell.
3. 2028-01-27 (18 months after listing): insurance funds, industrial chain strategic investors, core employee stock management plan unlock, about 465 million shares, industrial capital chip release.
4. 2028-07-27 (24 months after listing): sponsor institution follow-up shares unlock, about 230 million shares, broker follow-up portion can reduce holdings.
5. 2029-07-27 (36 months after listing, super large unlocking window): Hefei state-owned capital, Big Fund Phase II, early original shareholders, employee stock platforms large batch of old shares unlock, the largest chip supply window.
Additional Special Commitment: Founder Zhu Yiming voluntarily locks personal shares for 10 years; after major shareholders unlock, selling must comply with STAR Market new reduction rules, unlocking ≠ immediate full sell-off, but long-term chip supply increase is an objective fact. Early listing circulating shares are small, stock price is easily pushed up by funds, subsequent phased unlocking will gradually change chip supply and demand.
6. Downstream Demand Risks Falling Short of Expectations
Performance is highly tied to AI servers, PC, and mobile storage procurement. If global cloud AI capital expenditure cools and consumer electronics demand weakens, DRAM demand will directly weaken, pressuring performance.
General Principle: Never short fully at once; use phased positions, only short during the boom bubble phase, do not blindly bottom-fish short.
1. Position Building Range
- First batch trial short: stock price rebounds and stabilizes in 54-58 yuan range, sector sentiment excited, theme continues to ferment, start small position trial short;
- Second batch add short: stock price hits 62-66 yuan, market collectively bullish on perpetual memory cycle, valuation bubble further expands, increase short positions;
3. Stop-loss Setting (Most Important Short Step)
Unified hard stop-loss: 70 yuan. If stock price effectively breaks 70 yuan, it means this round of domestic substitution + AI boom sentiment is far stronger than cycle logic, short logic fails, must close all positions, no holding floating losses.
4. Take-profit Targets in Two Levels
- First take-profit: 38-41 yuan, cycle sentiment cools, valuation premium falls, can close 60% of short positions, realize most profits;
- Second take-profit: 30-33 yuan, corresponding to cycle peak and profit downward revision, close remaining positions.
5. Holding Time Frame
This is a mid-term cycle game, not overnight short-term, expected holding period 6 months;
Summary: The core short logic essentially bets on the memory cycle peaking and falling, boom period high profits unsustainable, and valuation sentiment premium reverting. But cycle turning points are hard to predict precisely, shorting is a high-risk operation.U.S. tech stocks retreated amid interest rate pressure resonance, while $NVDA rose against the trend driven by SpaceX infrastructure procurement, reflecting capital accelerating its shift from overvalued assets to AI hardware with strong certainty.
From the market facts, the Nasdaq fell 0.83% while Nvidia surged 3.43% to $219.22, with a total market cap surpassing $5.3 trillion. In contrast to the semiconductor sector under pressure and AMD dropping over 7% in a single day, capital is undergoing intense structural reshuffling within the broad tech field.
The primary driving factor is SpaceX’s clear commitment to future AI infrastructure procurement locking in Nvidia processors, strengthening hardware-side certainty. The secondary factor is capital outflow from U.S. tech and crypto asset stocks: a Coinbase director sold 35,068 shares for about $5.06 million, and MicroStrategy fell 74% over the past 12 months while selling 3,588 bitcoins to pay interest, indicating funds are exiting high-volatility risk assets and concentrating on hardware leaders with stronger certainty.
The bullish scenario trigger is Nvidia closing firmly above $219.22, with a slowdown in capital inflow to semiconductor short-selling tools. Variables to watch include the sustainability of capital flow into Nvidia when weaker tech giants like Google pull back. If computing power procurement demand is strong, premium space will continue to open. The scenario fails if volume shrinks after the breakout or tech sector selling pressure expands to the overall leader.
The bearish scenario trigger is valuation correction pressure spreading to the leader, causing Nvidia to fall below the recent breakout point. Variables to watch include market repricing of macro interest rate trends and the inflow speed of leveraged hedging tools like triple short Nasdaq. If risk-free rates rise suppressing U.S. stock valuations, even strong fundamentals will face valuation correction. The scenario fails if Nvidia continues to rise on volume and leads the semiconductor sector to stabilize.
When triple short semiconductor rises 2.86% in a day, reflecting accumulation of short power, or crypto-related asset selling pressure transmits to overall risk appetite decline, the condition of maintaining premium solely on single order benefits will loosen.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, key observations include the quality of turnover at Nvidia’s $219.22 level and whether sector peers like AMD stop falling. Also monitor intraday capital flow of leveraged hedging tools like triple short Nasdaq to assess how U.S. stocks and related risk assets are digesting interest rate pressure.
#谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 Low price does not equal cheap goods. In the cryptocurrency market, what truly determines valuation is the supply-demand structure and release schedule, not the fluctuating number on the K-line chart.👀
To see the true nature of a project, you must look beyond the surface hype and directly examine its tokenomics core:
🔹 The ratio of current circulating supply to total supply
🔹 The gap between fully diluted valuation (FDV) and current market cap
🔹 Future unlocking plans: timing, quantity, and pace of release
🔹 Who receives the unlocked tokens, and whether they are more likely to hold or sell
Many projects appear technologically advanced, with active communities and thriving ecosystems, but if a large amount of new tokens continuously flood the market, the price will be suppressed by constant selling pressure. High FDV combined with a small circulating supply and frequent unlocks essentially dilutes early investors’ equity.📉
The unlocking dynamics of the following projects deserve close attention:
$ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
Currently, the market’s most watched sectors include:
🌐 DeFi and RWA (Real World Assets):
$ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL
🤖 AI and DePIN:
$TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
🐸 Meme coins:
$PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT
Before opening a position, ask yourself four questions:
✅ What percentage of the total supply is currently circulating?
✅ Is the FDV reasonable relative to the current market cap, or is it clearly overestimating expectations?
✅ When is the next large-scale unlock scheduled?
✅ Are the teams, institutions, or early investors receiving tokens motivated to continue building or to cash out and exit?
Sound tokenomics is never a guarantee of high returns, but poor supply management will definitely erode price gradually through continuous dilution. Spend more time studying supply-demand mechanisms and strictly manage risks to make more rational decisions.
This is not financial advice; please do your own research before entering.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Crypto #Tokenomics #DYORTaiwan plans to implement the crypto Travel Rule starting in October, which is slightly bearish for $BTC and $ETH in the short term.
From now on, for transfers on local compliant platforms in Taiwan exceeding 30,000 TWD, the platform will need to collect and transmit more complete user identity information.
This will definitely put pressure on market sentiment.
The higher transfer threshold and reduced privacy may lead to some funds decreasing their activity on local platforms.
However, this type of regulation is not a sudden crackdown on trading but more like further integrating crypto assets into the financial anti-money laundering system.
In the short term, it will suppress some trading activity; in the long term, compliance will become increasingly evident.
The direction of the Asian market is now very clear:
Crypto is not unregulated, but is increasingly governed by traditional financial rules.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The original judgment for $SOL yesterday was: during the price rebound, spot active buying was insufficient, and positions barely moved, so new demand was not yet confirmed. By 13:00 today, the evidence became more complex, and it can only be recorded as "still under verification" for now.
About 20 hours after the post, SOL fell from 74.07 to 73.86, still below the 20-day moving average calculated from Binance's daily close; the spot active buy/sell ratio rose from 0.90 to 1.05, USD-M positions increased by about 3.21%, and the funding rate turned negative. Buying and positions have indeed returned, but the price did not hold, and the new positions may include shorts.
No trading plan was given in the previous text, so no account profit or loss can be recorded. For the remaining approximately 4 hours, only the daily close will be observed: if the price recovers above the 20-day moving average, with active buying continuing to dominate and positions not retreating, the original judgment will be invalid; if the price remains weak and the negative funding rate continues, demand confirmation is still incomplete.
#SOL #TradingReviewThe market is betting real money on the US and Iran reaching an agreement, but I only watch one indicator: whether oil tankers really resume normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Statements can change sentiment, but actual navigation can change supply.
If the agreement is reached, oil prices, inflation, and US Treasury yields may all decline simultaneously, creating a tailwind for tech stocks and BTC; if negotiations break down, the recent gains in risk assets may also be quickly given back.
Do you think this is a real turning point, or just another "pump first, crash later"?Oh my god! SanDisk's earnings report is absolutely explosive—Q4 revenue hit 8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, net profit of 6.9 billion turning losses into gains, EPS $39.25 smashing expectations! Full-year revenue reached 20.25 billion, data center single-quarter revenue was 2.98 billion, soaring 1298% year-over-year, simply terrifying!
But! After hours it actually dropped 8% at one point, the market flipped faster than flipping a page! Why? The Q1 guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, slightly below expectations, gross margin didn't continue to rise, and consumer business dropped 32% quarter-over-quarter—it's like scoring 99 points but being asked why not 100, unfair or not?
But don't panic! They signed 8 long-term contracts locking in supply for next year and the year after, approved a 14 billion buyback, just released 332-layer QLC new technology, fundamentals are solid! Morgan Stanley even says storage shortages will last at least two years.
My calculation: 55% probability it will hover around here, the market needs to catch its breath; 35% probability it will pull back another 10-15%, after all AI expectations are overheated; only 10% chance of an immediate rebound, waiting for the next strong catalyst.
In short, the long-term bull run is unstoppable, short-term... depends on the main players' mood!
⚠️ Purely my personal speculation, investing carries risks, don't blame me if you lose! $SNDK $BTC $ETH Breaking news! Since SNDK (SanDisk) spun off from Western Digital (WDC) and relisted in 2025, it has become the absolute core in the AI storage sector. The Q4 FY2026 earnings report released after the market close on August 5 is not just a performance battle but a full showdown of bullish and bearish logic.
Here is an in-depth analysis of the “large capital positioning” and the “different scripts for retail investors vs whales”:
1. Core earnings data and capital "repositioning"
Although SNDK’s earnings report showed an EPS of $34.52 (significantly above the expected $33.38) and revenue grew substantially year-over-year, the stock price movement diverged sharply:
* Institutional profit-taking: Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data shows hedge funds have net sold semiconductor hardware for four consecutive weeks, with SNDK being the top choice for cashing out at highs.
* Valuation divergence: Despite the stock price pulling back about 40% from the $2,354 peak, some whales (like Whale Rock) believe there is still room for NAND business penetration in the AI data center market; meanwhile, bearish whales are focusing on deep out-of-the-money $850 put options for defensive hedging.
2. Different scripts for retail investors and whales trading
* Whale script: shifting from “premium growth” to “cyclical defense”
* Core logic: Whales are trading on “AI capital expenditure slowdown” and “China storage capacity impact.” With CXMT and YMTC releasing large capacity in 2026, institutions worry that SNDK’s pure NAND model lacks the high-margin moat like SK Hynix’s HBM.
* Rebalancing moves: Large funds are withdrawing from the “crowded AI trade,” shifting to options around $1,370, locking in profits by selling covered calls.
* Retail script: shifting from “faith holding” to “psychological panic”
* Core logic: Retail confidence on social platforms like Stocktwits fluctuates between “extremely bullish” and “on the verge of collapse.”
* Trading behavior: Most retail investors expect a technical rebound at $1,400 to break even, but if the $1,000 psychological level breaks, it could trigger massive stop-loss selling (Positioning Flush).
3. What’s next? (Strategy recommendations)
SNDK has entered a typical “post-earnings repositioning period.” Focus on these key levels:
* Support and resistance:
* First support: $1,000 (strong psychological level and main institutional cost zone).
* Core resistance: $1,370 - $1,420 (current cycle’s largest options open interest range).
* Key variables: Watch for hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh at the August policy meeting and whether NAND spot prices structurally soften due to overcapacity.
* Operational advice:
* Long-term holders: Observe near $1,000 for signs of whale “second entry” accumulation.
* Short-term traders: Avoid fighting for position near the $1,200 mid-level. A break below $1,190 with volume suggests the whale script has shifted from “profit-taking” to “trend shorting,” with the next target at $943.
Conclusion: The post-earnings sell-off in SNDK is not due to fundamental deterioration but a collective withdrawal of large capital amid expectations of a peak in the AI storage “super cycle.” The next 1-2 weeks are a critical window to observe the key battle between retail capitulation and institutional rebuilding. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Leverage in US stocks is completely down, macro risk-off alarm has been triggered
JPMorgan warns of high leverage: someone is about to disrupt the market💀
S&P's violent surge looks like a top signal, chart analysts are directly panicking
Dow futures hit new highs, but AI reshuffle + ongoing chip policy disputes
Tokenized US stocks result: 0 up, 5 down, average -4.36%, total volume $51 million
XSOXL and XSNDK both down, 3x long and short directly fighting on site🔴
XSPY slightly down 0.08%, XSKHY down 3.05%, funds haven't switched to new highs, all running away
XSPCX -7%, my short position floating profit 0.43%, TP101.78 SL114.07 waiting for rebound to continue shorting
GRVT +16.48%, I just opened a long, following momentum, previous stop loss was -5.34% painful lesson
BTC +0.58% but volume halved -51%, funding rate 0.005%, completely a follower
fear 27 + macro sell-off signal, crypto is still the bag holder in the grand narrative
Waiting for Warren to continue clamping down on AI chips or the Lummis CLARITY Act to be implemented? Before the U.S. Senate recesses in August, the legislative window for the CLARITY Act is rapidly closing. Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed that Senate Majority Leader John Toon formally filed motions today to launch debates on other bills, with the CLARITY bill not included. The motion to initiate debate is a key procedural step in advancing the Senate legislative process, and John Thune's choice to prioritize other bills shows that the core divisions over the CLARITY bill remain unresolved. The current bipartisan deadlock centers on the authority to enforce ethical provisions—should the clause prohibiting federal officials from issuing digital assets be the chief enforcement agency of the Department of Justice or the state attorney general? Maryland Senator Alsobrooks has made it clear that she will not support the bill if enforcement authority is limited to the Department of Justice and not reserved for the states. Another front is similarly deadlocked: internal resistance to the bill is largely linked to the Trump family's disclosed investments in over $1 billion in crypto assets, with several Democratic senators viewing the moral clause as a counterbalance to potential presidential interests. This means that the legislative process of the bill is to some extent tied to political goals against Trump, rather than merely a technical debate over industry regulation. Predict.fun, the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 has dropped to 16%, a significant drop from before. As the Senate enters its August recess, substantial progress on the bill is likely to wait until 2027—and 2027 itself will be delayed🔥 The Meme Coin Whales' Game — DOGE's Chip Distribution and Whales' Intentions
🐳 The "Retreat" of the Whales
In the past week, whales have sold over 1 billion $DOGE. What does this scale mean?
DOGE's circulating supply is about 145 billion coins. 1 billion coins account for approximately 0.7% of the circulating supply — seemingly small, but for a coin with an average daily spot trading volume of only $34.25 million, selling 1 billion DOGE represents huge selling pressure.
Whales choosing to sell at this point can be interpreted in several ways:
1. Stop-loss exit: DOGE fell from a high of 0.48 to 0.0695, a drop of 85%, and whales might not be able to hold on.
2. Tactical reduction: to buy back at a lower price.
3. Sector rotation: exiting meme coins to shift into safer assets like BTC/ETH.
Regardless of interpretation, whale selling is a significant short-term bearish factor.
📊 "Decentralization" of Chips
Corresponding to whale selling, the number of $DOGE holding addresses is increasing — active addresses grew by 16% within a week. This means chips are dispersing from whales to retail investors.
In crypto, chip decentralization is usually a bear market characteristic (big holders selling to retail), while chip concentration is a bull market characteristic (retail selling to big holders). DOGE is currently in a chip decentralization phase, indicating the market has not yet completed its bottoming process.
📈 "Contrarian Bets" by Smart Money
Although whales are selling, top traders are heavily going long. These two behaviors seem contradictory but may be "two sides of the same coin":
· Whales sell in the spot market → suppressing price
· Top traders go long in derivatives → betting on a rebound
This combination may mean: whales are depressing prices through spot selling while building long positions in derivatives — a typical "smash then pump" tactic. If this interpretation holds, DOGE's bottom may be near.
🎭 Unique Rules of Meme Coins
As the largest meme coin, $DOGE has its unique market rules:
First, the sentiment-driven nature of meme coins. DOGE's price does not depend on fundamentals (DOGE has almost no fundamentals) but on market sentiment and narratives. Once KOLs like Elon Musk speak out or the meme coin sector warms up overall, DOGE can surge dramatically in a very short time.
Second, the leader effect. When leading meme coins like DOGE and SHIB strengthen, they often drive the entire meme coin sector's trading heat, capital flow, and market sentiment to rise synchronously.
Third, a strong rebound after extreme overselling. DOGE's RSI has hit a historic low, dropping from 0.48 to 0.0695, a decline of 85%. Historically, this level of overselling often signals a strong rebound.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 Yen arbitrage trading is declining.
Before April 2025, the USD/JPY currency pair showed a close correlation with the 10-year interest rate differential between U.S. and Japanese government bonds.
This was mainly due to investors borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding dollar assets through arbitrage trading.
However, after the "Liberation Day," this relationship changed, as uncertainty from the trade war triggered a surge in market volatility, forcing investors to close out some arbitrage positions.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield currently trades about 2.0 percentage points above the Japanese 10-year government bond yield, down 1.0 percentage point since April 2025, nearing the narrowest gap since 2021.
Despite the narrowing yield gap, USD/JPY continues to rise as the dollar strengthens against the yen, diverging from the historical interest rate differential that drove this currency pair.
In other words, the influence of arbitrage trading is weakening, and the yen is no longer primarily driven by interest rate differentials, as investors increasingly factor in Japan's heavy debt burden and rising debt servicing costs.
Japan's rising debt costs are becoming impossible to ignore. Changxin Technology "dives against the sector trend" today: The first pullback of the 3.5 trillion storage king, hiding a buying opportunity for the second major rally?
On August 6, the entire semiconductor sector was glowing red—storage stock Kexiang Co., Ltd. hit the 20% daily limit, Huicheng Co., Youyan Silicon rose over 10%, Changdian Technology surged then pulled back to rise over 7%, and the STAR Market chip ETF headed upward.
But the most eye-catching was the "Storage King" Changxin Technology (688825), whose A-share market value once topped 3.6 trillion.
It did not follow the rally; instead, it opened lower and plunged: opening at ¥52.96, dropping to a low of ¥51.13, with an intraday maximum decline near 6%, closing at ¥52.08, down 4.09% for the day, with a turnover of ¥20.77 billion and a turnover rate of 8.85%.
The sector was celebrating, but the leader was getting hit.
Does this scene look like the gold you wrote about yesterday—the first pullback washout after a breakout with a big bullish candle?
1. Today's bearish candle is not a reversal but "profit-taking spit after a 471% surge on the first day"
Rewind to July 27: issue price ¥8.66, closing at ¥49.01, a single-day gain of 466%, market cap surged to 3.3 trillion, hourly turnover broke 1 trillion, the largest IPO since the STAR Market opened.
It rose 5 times in ten days, with a mountain of unrealized profits piled up. Today's low open and sell-off essentially reflect short-term FOMO funds cashing out + overnight SanDisk guidance below expectations dragging down overseas storage sentiment + SK Hynix's intraday 7% drop contagion, three layers of selling pressure released in one day.
But look at the details:
After ¥51.13, funds immediately bought back, intraday pullback average price line near ¥52;
The semiconductor sector rose 2.3% all day, storage sector nearly 3%, the sector is alive, it’s a stock-specific shakeout;
8.85% turnover on a ¥3.5 trillion market cap stock is "volume expansion without breaking support," not a collapse.
Translated into the language you use to review gold:
3960 support = Changxin issue price ¥8.66 anchor;
4200 breakout = first-day 466% big bullish candle;
4300 high then pullback = today’s open ¥52.96, low ¥51.13;
The following pullback not breaking the ¥51–50 zone is the second wave bull accumulation area.
2. Why dare to say "the second wave of rise" is still ahead? The underlying logic hasn’t changed
Today’s drop is in sentiment and profit-taking; what hasn’t dropped is Changxin’s solid foundation.
1. The DRAM super cycle is not over
Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron are shifting capacity toward HBM4 and LPDDR5X, with general DRAM supply continuing to tighten. In 26Q2, regular DRAM price increases were 93%–98%, Q3E still 58%–63%, price increase slope slows but absolute prices remain high. Huawei’s Yu Chengdong, Apple’s Cook, and Xiaomi’s Lei Jun all confirmed "memory prices will continue to rise," Changxin rejects Apple’s price cuts, quoting no lower than Samsung and Hynix—this is a seller’s market stance standing to make money.
2. Performance jumped from "ten years of losses" to "single quarter profit of ¥24.8 billion"
26Q1 revenue ¥50.8 billion (YoY +719%), net profit attributable to parent ¥24.8 billion; 26H1 forecast net profit attributable to parent ¥50–57 billion (YoY +2244%~2544%).
Dynamic PE calculated on half-year annualized profit is single digits; static PE of 123 times is because last year’s loss is used as denominator—the market is buying the cycle peak plus domestic substitution double boost, not static profitability.
3. Capacity and product positioning advancing simultaneously
Four days after listing, Changxin Storage’s registered capital increased from ¥23.89 billion to ¥31.39 billion (+¥7.5 billion); Beijing second factory progressing; LPDDR6 mass production validation nearing completion; ByteDance has a 5-year $7 billion order in hand.
Money, capacity, orders, next-gen products—all four lines are moving forward, not just a PPT story.
4. Capital symbolic significance = "central bank gold purchases" in gold terms
On July 27, Changxin used one day to weld "China’s DRAM global fourth place (8% share)" into the A-share pricing system, temporarily surpassing Intel’s market cap, becoming the first Chinese tech stock to surpass overseas competitors in market value.
For a target of this caliber, the first major pullback is never the end; it’s an equidistant buying point for index rebalancing funds, ETF passive funds, and public fund rebalancing funds—three months later, it will be included in the STAR 50/CSI 300 candidate list, triggering a new round of passive inflows. Today, global stock markets retreated from record highs, with chip stocks becoming the hardest hit area. Flash memory giant $SNDK plunged 15.1% in a single day, with trading volume soaring to 3.12 billion, $SKHYNIX down over 10%, and $MU down 3%. Panic spreads, but has the opportunity already flashed? Outline - 🔍 Why Did Chip Stocks Suddenly Crash? - 📈 $SNDK What is its origin? - ⚔️ Fierce bullish and bearish battles: Fundamentals vs. sentiment - 🪓 Risks and opportunities: Should we take the flying knife now? Today's snapshot: $SNDK -15.1%, turnover 3.12 billion $SKHYNIX -10.3%, $MU -3.0% $QQQ -0.90%, $SPY -0.20% $BTC 64,648, +0.82% $ETH 1,906, +2.14% $GLD +4.14%, $DXY +0.04% VIX 15.8, -4.18% I. Why did chip stocks suddenly crash? 🔍 Today's sell-off in chip stocks is not an isolated event. $SKHYNIX plunged 10.3%, becoming another major drag, possibly directly related to the appreciation of the Korean won—the won rose to a nearly 10-month high in the morning as exporters sold large amounts of dollars. For Korean chip giants like $SKHYNIX, the strong Korean won directly erodes overseas revenue, triggering capital flight. Meanwhile, on the macro side, gold surged 4.14%, while the VIX did not decline📈 Derivatives Frenzy vs Spot Market Freeze — Extreme Divergence of DOGE
🔥 "Madness" in the Derivatives Market
The derivatives data for $DOGE can be described as "madness":
· Top traders: 77.9% long, long-short ratio 3.52:1
· Retail investors: 73.8% long
· Active buy-sell ratio: 1.57:1, overwhelming buyer advantage
· Open interest contracts: 8.55% growth in 24 hours
These data indicate that the derivatives market is betting on a significant rebound in DOGE. Smart money (top traders) and retail investors have rarely reached a consensus — both believe DOGE is about to rise.
🧊 "Freeze" in the Spot Market
In stark contrast to the frenzy in the derivatives market is the coldness of the spot market:
· OKX spot daily trading volume is only $34.25 million
· Whales have sold over 1 billion DOGE in the past week
· Price hovers around 0.0695, lacking upward momentum
This pattern of "derivatives heat, spot cold" historically often signals intense directional volatility. Because leveraged positions in the derivatives market ultimately need to be closed in the spot market — either spot volume surges significantly to validate the derivatives market view, or these leveraged longs get liquidated, causing a rapid price drop.
💣 Two Possible Outcomes
Outcome One: Spot Follows, Violent Surge
If spot volume suddenly expands and buyers actively absorb, $DOGE could quickly rebound from 0.0695 to 0.073-0.075. This would validate the derivatives market’s judgment, forming a positive feedback loop of "derivatives long → spot price rise → further derivatives long."
Outcome Two: Leverage Cleanup, Violent Drop
If the spot market remains weak and lacks sufficient buying support, the leveraged longs accumulated in the derivatives market will become "fuel" — price drops → triggers long liquidations → further drops → more liquidations. The target level could be 0.065.
📊 The Only Safety Cushion: Neutral Funding Rate
Currently, $DOGE’s funding rate remains close to neutral at 0.0019%. This means holding long positions does not incur a premium, and the market has not entered a frenzy stage.
Historically, a neutral funding rate combined with smart money heavily long is usually a constructive signal — although liquidation risk exists, it is not inevitable. In other words: the cost of going long is low, but the potential reward is high. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #CryptoMarketRecovery On August 6, influenced by the US-Iran ceasefire and expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, international oil prices dropped sharply, easing market inflation concerns and significantly restoring risk appetite. The crypto market (BTC, ETH, etc.) experienced a broad rally. However, this rebound is essentially a technical recovery driven by geopolitical easing rather than a bull market restart—the market still faces dual challenges of macroeconomic pressure and internal divergence going forward.
---
1. Drivers of the Rebound and Structural Weaknesses
1. Driving Factors
· Cooling geopolitical conflicts (oil price decline) directly alleviated inflation anxiety, lowering market expectations for further Fed rate hikes and driving risk asset valuation recovery;
· On-chain data shows some large holders (whales) continuously accumulating at low levels, combined with a temporary weakening of short-term selling pressure, providing bottom support for the market.
2. Limitations of the Rebound
· Insufficient incremental capital inflow: Bitcoin ETF inflows have noticeably slowed, with some institutions showing net outflows;
· Spot trading volume remains sluggish; the rebound is driven more by supply contraction and sentiment recovery rather than large-scale demand expansion;
· Macro-level pressure remains unresolved: the Fed’s policy path is still unclear, and the tech sector deleveraging process continues.
---
2. Mid-to-Long Term Outlook
Short term (mainly volatile)
The market will maintain high volatility, with direction highly dependent on two factors: the progress of US-Iran negotiations and Friday’s nonfarm payroll data.
· If geopolitical easing continues, BTC is expected to consolidate near the 66,000–66,500 USD resistance zone;
· If negotiations falter or macro data turns hawkish, a retest of 61,900 USD or even 60,000 USD is possible.
Mid term (bottoming and divergence)
The market is likely in a "bottoming phase" transition. A true trend reversal requires substantial improvement in macro liquidity (e.g., a clear dovish shift by the Fed) or a significant return of institutional funds. During this process, asset divergence will intensify: BTC, as "digital gold," will be relatively resilient, while high-beta, high-valuation altcoins will be more affected by macro sentiment, with significantly amplified volatility.
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3. Operational Strategy Reference
1. Strict position control, defense first
Currently in a news-driven high volatility period, chasing rallies or panic selling is taboo. Strict stop-loss settings are essential to guard against sudden drawdowns caused by repeated geopolitical events.
2. Key level trading ideas
· Short-term traders: can lightly go long near key support levels (BTC 61,900 / ETH 1,820) and consider taking profits or lightly short near resistance levels (BTC 66,500 / ETH 1,920);
· Mid-term investors: recommended to stay on the sidelines, waiting for clearer trend signals—such as a volume breakout of resistance or completion of a secondary bottom before making right-side entries.
---
#CryptoMarketRecovery #BTC #ETH #MacroAnalysis
📌 Key Takeaways (Summary)
Dimension Core Content
Market Nature Technical recovery driven by geopolitical easing, not a bull market restart
Driving Factors Oil price decline → inflation concern easing → risk appetite recovery; whale accumulation + short-term selling pressure weakening
Rebound Weakness ETF inflows slowing, volume shrinking, macro pressure unresolved
Short-term View High volatility and consolidation, key variables: US-Iran talks + nonfarm data
BTC Key Levels Resistance 66,000–66,500; Support 61,900 / 60,000
ETH Key Levels Resistance 1,920; Support 1,820
Mid-term View Still in "bottoming phase," trend reversal requires macro liquidity improvement or institutional fund return
Operational Advice Short-term light position range trading, mid-term wait for volume breakout or secondary bottom confirmation If you're like me, you've heard enough of all the discussions about the CLARITY Act. To be fair, the U.S. Congress should pass this bill, and if it is implemented, the crypto industry will benefit. Current situation: "Everyone thinks that if this bill drags on, the market will be paralyzed. Let's talk about it once it actually passes." The CLARITY Act is not perfect, but it is still a decent quality bill. It can boost the U.S. economy, protect investors, improve ethical protection mechanisms, and help the U.S. gain a competitive edge in the era of on-chain finance. However, this landmark crypto legislation has been under review in Congress since May 2025. Its origins can be traced back to the earlier FIT21 Act, which was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in May 2024, 804 days ago. Over the past few months, many people, myself included, have regarded this week as a critical turning point for the success or failure of the CLARITY Act. The reason is that the U.S. Senate will begin its August recess on Friday, August 7, and will not reconvene until September 14. According to Senate rules of procedure, to contest a vote before adjournment, senators must submit a motion to end the debate by Wednesday, August 5 at the latest. The mainstream view is that if Congress fails to vote on the bill before the August recess, it is highly likely to be aborted, and lawmakers will soon shift their focus to the November election. Polymarket predicts that the bill will only pass 27% in 2026, compared to 82% in February this year. #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
What is Arc? Why is Circle betting on it, and can it take off?
Arc is a membership-based blockchain network created by Circle specifically for financial institutions, primarily serving payment settlement and asset tokenization. It is not a public chain but an "institutional-grade expressway" jointly maintained by 11 financial giants including BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, and DTCC as validator nodes. All transactions are denominated in USDC, essentially creating a broader financial infrastructure scenario for USDC.
Can this bet take off?
Short term (within 1 year): Arc's mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, but DTCC's (the U.S. securities clearing core) tokenization plan will not be implemented until 2027. Actual business contributions will take at least 1-2 years. Circle's financial report shows USDC's circulating supply at the end of the quarter decreased by 4.8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating weak current growth momentum. Arc remains mostly at the expectation stage and is unlikely to immediately drive performance.
Long term (3-5 years): Once Arc successfully connects traditional securities settlement, USDC will upgrade from a "crypto tool" to "financial infrastructure," fully unlocking demand potential. Circle's target for USDC's annual compound growth rate is 40%, but this depends on large-scale institutional adoption.
In summary: Arc has huge strategic value, but the probability of a short-term "takeoff" is low. It is worth watching in the long term. Currently, it is more suitable as a long-term thesis, and short-term trading requires patience to wait for actual implementation signals.📌Yesterday morning in the live room, I positioned a short on $SNDK at 1455
Now I break down the reasons for the sharp drop:
The short at 1337.26 is now around 1255, with an unrealized profit of over 80 points. The logic behind this trade has been validated by the market.
First, let's see why SanDisk fell from above 1400 to around 1255
On August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 FY2026 earnings report, with revenue of $8.97 billion, a 372% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; EPS was $39.25, also well above expectations. Data center business revenue grew nearly 13 times year-over-year, and gross margin rose to a record high of 84.6%. The board also approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan.
But the market was not convinced. During regular trading hours, the stock dropped 5.4%, and after-hours it fell nearly 8% more to $1248.
What crushed the stock price was the guidance for Q1 FY2027. SanDisk expects revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below FactSet's forecast of $10.82 billion. The gross margin guidance of 83% to 85% indicates the margin may plateau at a high level. Goldman Sachs had previously warned that overly high market expectations make it difficult for SanDisk's stock to benefit from strong earnings. "A brilliant past" is not enough to offset "a less-than-stunning future." Western Digital plunged over 11% after hours, SK Hynix dropped nearly 10%, dragging down the entire storage sector.
How to manage the short at 1337.26
The earnings report is out, and the negative impact of the below-expectation guidance is still unfolding, confirming a bearish trend. But the short-term decline has been significant, so orderly management is needed.
Move the stop loss. Shift the stop loss down from above the entry to 1320. The current price is 1255; 1320 means you still have profit even if there is a rebound. If the price continues down to around 1200, move the stop loss further down to 1280.
Take profits in batches. The first target is 1200 to 1220, close 30% of the position. The second target is 1150 to 1160, close another 30%. The third target is 1080 to 1100, close the remaining 40%. If the price falls to around 1200 with increased volume and acceleration, don't rush to close all positions; let the remaining position run.
Conditions to add to the position. If the price rebounds to the 1280 to 1300 range with low volume and stagnation, add to the short position, with an overall stop loss at 1320. If it breaks below 1200 with high volume, add to the short position and move the stop loss up to 1230, targeting 1150.
Exit conditions. If the price breaks above 1320 with high volume and holds, it means the negative earnings impact has been digested; close all short positions. When the price reaches the 1080 to 1100 target, close all positions and don't be greedy for the last leg.
This trade from 1337 short is on the right track. The core driver is the earnings guidance below expectations, and the storage sector sentiment is still transmitting. Move the stop loss to lock in profits, take profits in batches to capture swings, and add positions after rebound confirmation. Don't let unrealized profits turn into losses, and don't exit too early out of panic.
#Betting on Arc after Circle earnings, can USDC see new growth? #ADP employment cools down, Fed policy divergence intensifies #Earnings watcher: mixed results, lock-up expiration approaching! What’s next for SpaceX? $BTC $ETH Iran just issued a harsh warning to Gulf countries, oil prices jumped, BTC $64,896.53 is at risk
Iran warns Gulf countries: dare to help the US take action and you will be hit. Risk-off sentiment surges, risk assets come under pressure across the board.
Friends, the powder keg in the Middle East is smoking again. Iran directly threatened the Gulf countries, basically saying: if the US launches airstrikes again, any Arab country providing bases or convenience to the US will become a target of Iranian retaliation.
In plain terms, this is Iran drawing a red line in advance, putting the risk of war spillover on the table. This move is very harsh because the Gulf countries control the world's most important oil shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz. Once Iran speaks, the energy market can't hold steady, and international oil prices surge.
The transmission chain to the financial market is clear: geopolitical conflict escalates → oil prices soar → global inflation expectations rise → Fed rate cut expectations delay → liquidity tightens. For the crypto market, risk assets are the first to be sold off, and BTC and ETH will face short-term capital outflow pressure.
Market impact
Short term: panic index soars, capital accelerates fleeing risk assets. The transmission path is: geopolitical conflict escalates → global risk-off sentiment explodes → US stock futures fall → crypto market follows down. BTC 24-hour decline is 0.93%, ETH fell 2.29%, indicating ETH faces heavier selling pressure in panic, with capital prioritizing withdrawal from high-volatility assets.
Medium term: if Iran really takes action against Gulf countries, global supply chains will be impacted, inflation will rise again, forcing the Fed to maintain a high interest rate environment. This is structurally bearish for the crypto market, which relies on liquidity premium. Institutional funds will delay entry, ETF inflows may slow or even turn into outflows.
My judgment
Honestly, I am bearish at this level. BTC at $64,896.53 shows no sign of stabilization, panic sentiment is still spreading. Support below is at the $62,000 round number; if Iran takes further military action tonight, it will break through without hesitation. ETH is weaker; the $1,919.03 price may lose the $1,850 support at any time. I suggest not rushing to catch the falling knife in the short term, wait for the geopolitical situation to clarify.
🎯 Impact forecast
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉 expected drop
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
❓ If you agree this wave will correct, hit like so I can see how many people are holding back
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#Geopolitics
⚠️ This does not constitute investment adviceOn August 6, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed results: the Dow Jones rose 0.49% to a new high, the S&P 500 fell 0.17%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.83%. The Dow was entirely supported by NVIDIA, while the tech sector overall was in a pullback. $SNDK $SPCX
2. Tech Giants: Some Celebrate, Some Struggle
$NVDA (NVIDIA) +3.43%, $219.22 — the strongest performer. It has risen for five consecutive days, hitting a two-month high, with a market cap surpassing $5.3 trillion. Elon Musk personally stated that SpaceX will use only NVIDIA processors for future AI infrastructure. Its leadership in AI remains unshaken, making it the strongest in the short term.
$AAPL (Apple) +0.52%, $311 — Q2 revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with iPhone revenue up 22% year-over-year, a record. However, Phillip Securities downgraded the rating to "underweight" with a target price of $290, citing rising memory costs. Meanwhile, Bank of America reaffirmed a buy rating with a $380 target. Opinions diverge greatly; cautiously optimistic.
$META (Meta) +0.14% — barely up, with no major news. The only highlight is a market cap of $1.49 trillion, just surpassing SpaceX's $1.48 trillion. This is a passive gain.
$GOOGL (Google) -4.05% — the worst performer among the seven giants. Pressure from AI search competition combined with slowing ad revenue growth is causing clear capital outflows.
$TSLA (Tesla) -1.77%, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) just over -7% — struggling peers. AMD dropped over 7% in one day, with the semiconductor sector under pressure overall.
3. AI/Large Model Related: Contrasting Fortunes in Hong Kong and U.S. Markets
$MINIMAX-W +22.54%, HK$311 — one of the "dual kings" of large models in Hong Kong stocks, officially included in the Stock Connect today, allowing mainland funds to buy. The news triggered a sharp surge, with trading volume soaring to HK$4.7 billion.
$ZHIPU +8.74%, HK$1132 — also part of the Hong Kong large model concept, flying high alongside MINIMAX.
$COHR (Coherent) after-hours $323.85 — leader in optical communications and lasers, with huge AI data center demand for optical interconnects. Earnings report on August 12; analysts' average target price is $394, indicating significant upside.
4. Commercial Space: SpaceX Drags Down the Market, While Smaller Players Hold Firm
$SpaceX -13.61%, market cap evaporated by $225.2 billion (about ¥1.52 trillion) — the biggest negative is the unlocking of restricted shares, about 910 million internal shares unlocked on August 6, causing a surge in free float. Although Musk praised NVIDIA during the earnings call, he did not provide sufficiently exciting guidance.
Interestingly, smaller space concept stocks barely fell:
· $RDW (Redwire) +10.46% — Q2 earnings beat expectations, up 6.81% after hours
· $LUNR (Intuitive Machines) +4.78% — commercial lunar lander concept, with institutional ownership as high as 93%
· $RKLB (Rocket Lab) +0.46% — up four consecutive days, preparing for its 92nd launch
· $ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) +15.27% (weekly gain) — just launched three BlueBird satellites
Logic: $SPCX fell due to share unlocking, not fundamentals. Smaller stocks rose as the market differentiated.
5. AI Servers/Hardware: Strong Demand but Stock Prices Already Priced In
$DELL closed at $462.70, -0.98% — intraday hit a record high of $485.70 before retreating. AI server revenue surged 757% year-over-year, but the stock has risen too much from its low, with short-term profit-taking.
$PLTR (Palantir) closed at $158.43, -2.60% — earnings were explosive: U.S. commercial revenue up 150%, government revenue up 90%, operating margin at a record 62%. However, the stock fell two days in a row after earnings, showing signs of "good news fully priced."
6. Several to Watch Closely
$COIN (Coinbase) — Director Wilson Frederick R sold 35,068 shares on August 3, cashing out about $5.06 million. Insider selling is never a good sign. Although ARK is still buying, insider selling warrants caution.
$MSTR (MicroStrategy) near $98 — down 74% over the past 12 months. Maxim Group just lowered the target price from $250 to $215. Sold 3,588 bitcoins to pay dividends. The bottom may not have been reached yet.
$SOXS (3x Semiconductor Short) +2.86% — semiconductors were weak yesterday, but SOXS rose. Famous short seller Burry still holds a short position in SOXS. Leveraged product, do not hold overnight.
$SQQQ (3x Nasdaq Short) +1.82% — Nasdaq falls, it rises. Also an intraday tool, holding long causes significant decay.
7. Other Miscellaneous
$RIVN (Rivian) +2.02% — Q2 revenue $1.66 billion beat expectations, gross margin turned positive for the first time, a milestone. The electric vehicle sector finally sees profitability on the horizon.
$SONY +1.95% — relatively stable in consumer electronics, Q1 operating profit up 40% year-over-year. One of the few gainers in Japanese stocks.
$BSP (Bending Spoons) near $44 — Italian app developer, just listed for one month, P/E ratio 183x. Extremely expensive; new stock investors should be cautious.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🧠 The mid-to-long-term narrative of $SOL — Can the 14x burn ignite a deflationary rocket?
🔥 14x Burn Proposal: SOL's Game Changer?
Solana's 14x burn proposal has passed the first round of governance voting. If ultimately approved, Solana's daily SOL burn amount will increase from 650 to 9,000, nearly a 14-fold increase.
What does this mean? Under the current inflation schedule, Solana adds a certain amount of new SOL annually. The essence of the burn proposal is to reduce 18.9 million new SOL entering the market over the next six years. This effectively reduces supply-side pressure and strengthens the deflationary narrative for SOL.
From a tokenomics perspective, this is a significant long-term positive. Reduced supply + unchanged or growing demand = price increase. However, note that the proposal has only passed the first round of voting; the final vote is still uncertain.
📊 Structural divergence between network fundamentals and price
The most interesting phenomenon for $SOL currently is the divergence of "network boom vs. price stagnation":
· Weekly transaction volume surpasses 1 billion
· Non-voting transactions hit record highs
· Yet the price hovers around $74
This divergence usually has two possible outcomes:
1. Price catches up with fundamentals: network activity growth eventually reflects in price
2. Fundamentals catch up with price: high network activity growth is unsustainable and eventually declines
Historically, Solana's network activity growth has been sustained — weekly transaction volume has steadily increased since 2025, consistently above 800 million. This leans toward the first outcome: price will eventually catch up with fundamentals.
🇺🇸 ETF funding concerns
However, $SOL faces short-term funding concerns. Six Solana US ETFs have seen net inflows drop to zero for five consecutive days. Despite cumulative net inflows reaching $1.122 billion, outflows from Bitwise BSOL have dragged down primary market funds temporarily.
Stagnation in ETF fund flows means a lack of incremental capital from traditional financial channels. Without new capital, SOL's price increase can only rely on internal rotation of existing funds — which is challenging in the current market environment.
🎯 Comprehensive assessment
Short term (24-48 hours): oscillation between $73-$75 with a bearish bias. $74.5-$75 is a strong resistance zone; the main strategy is to short on rebounds. Support at $72.80 below.
Mid term (1-2 weeks): direction depends on BTC and burn proposal progress. If BTC breaks $65,000 and the burn proposal passes the final vote, SOL may see a catch-up rally.
Long term (3+ months): if the 14x burn proposal is approved, it will fundamentally improve SOL's tokenomics. Combined with sustained network activity growth, around $73 may be an important mid-to-long-term bottom area. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ [August 6 Federal Reserve Watch]
Fed Governor Cook personally "welded shut the door to rate hikes": "If I don't see signs of sustained inflation cooling soon, I am ready to take action." — The weight of this statement lies in the fact that just last week she was part of the 9:3 majority voting to keep rates unchanged. From "holding steady" to "ready to hike," Cook's stance shift marks an official expansion of the Fed's hawkish camp.
1. Cook's Speech: Three Signals, Each Unusual
On August 5 local time, Cook delivered a speech in Anchorage, Alaska, which was a textbook "hawkish declaration":
Signal One: Clear statement that "inflation risk outweighs employment risk"
"Inflation remains too high. At present, I believe that within the Fed's dual mandate, the risk from inflation outweighs the risk to employment. Therefore, if necessary, I am prepared to take action and raise rates."
This is a key tone-setting moment. In the Fed's past "dual mandate" framework, employment and inflation were balanced on a scale; Cook now directly declares the scale has tipped — despite July ADP employment increasing by only 44,000, a new low for the year, she still places inflation ahead of employment.
Signal Two: Warning of "no luxury to wait"
"If I don't see signs of sustained inflation cooling soon, I am ready to act. After five years of inflation persistently above target, the risk of inflation becoming entrenched in corporate pricing and wage-setting mechanisms is rising."
Cook points out the Fed's core fear — inflation expectations becoming unanchored. Five years above the 2% target means corporate pricing behavior and wage negotiations have taken "high inflation" as the default assumption. She bluntly states: "Under other economic conditions, the Fed might be able to wait longer before acting, but in the current environment, we do not have that luxury."
Signal Three: Single-month data is not reliable
Cook acknowledges that June's inflation easing was mainly due to a sharp drop in energy prices, but she emphasizes "not to overinterpret single-month data." Tariff effects fading, lower oil prices, and a temporary easing of AI-driven pressures — these factors may help cool inflation but "are not enough to change policy priorities."
💡 The most critical detail: Last week Cook was one of the nine officials supporting keeping rates steady when the FOMC voted 9:3 to maintain the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%. A "majority" member turning hawkish means internal Fed divisions have expanded from a "3-person dissent" to "unease within the majority" — a significant turning point in monetary policy stance during Chair Powell's tenure.
2. Kashkari: The "Vanguard" of the Hawkish Camp
On the same day, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (an FOMC voting member this year) gave a more aggressive statement in a CNBC interview:
"Corporate profits are very strong, consumers are holding up, and the labor market is holding up. Looking at these conditions, I have to ask, what evidence do I have that monetary policy is currently particularly restrictive?"
Kashkari's core positions:
Gradual rate hikes: "I'm not calling for large aggressive hikes but prefer to act early with small steps"
Earliest start in September: "I lean toward starting gradual hikes as early as September but have not committed to a timeline"
Three hikes this year "are not impossible"
He was one of three dissenters at last week's FOMC, along with Logan and Hammack, advocating a 25 basis point hike.
⚠️ This is the first time during Powell's tenure that three officials openly dissented together, marking a public sign of the Fed's internal "hawk-dove split."
3. Data Background: Classic "Stagflation Signal"
Why did Cook and Kashkari both turn hawkish? July data provides the answer — a stagflation mix of weak employment and strong prices:
Significant cooling on employment:
July ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, well below the expected 75,000, and "halved" from June's revised 95,000
4. Market Pricing: Probability of September Rate Hike Still Above 55%
Latest CME FedWatch Tool data:
Probability of no rate change in September: 43.1%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability: 56.9%
Probability of no change in October: 31.6%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability: 53.2%, cumulative 50 basis point hike probability: 15.1%
Divergent institutional views:
BofA: Predicts 25 basis point hikes in September, October, and December, totaling 75 basis points for the year, with year-end rates at 4.25%-4.50%
Huatai Securities: Reiterates high probability of September hike, expects 1-2 hikes this year, and 2 more before mid-next year
Goldman Sachs, Barclays: Continue to forecast no rate changes for the rest of the year
5. Transmission to Global Assets
Rate hike expectations remain, with clear impact paths across asset classes:
US Treasuries: 2-year yield at 4.188%, 10-year at 4.613% — The nearing Horn of Hormuz agreement has lowered oil prices and rate hike expectations, but strong nonfarm payroll or inflation rebound data could quickly push yields higher again. The bond market is extremely sensitive to the "oil price → inflation → rate hike" transmission.
Dollar: Dollar index down 0.2% — Rate hike expectations and risk-off sentiment are in a tug-of-war; the dollar's short-term direction depends on Friday's nonfarm payroll data.
Gold: Spot gold surged 4.11% to $4245.39/oz — This is a key paradoxical signal: rate hike expectations should suppress gold, but prices soared. The only explanation is that market fear of "stagflation" outweighs the deterrent effect of "rate hikes," and gold is being bought as a stagflation hedge.
US Tech Stocks: SpaceX down 13.61%, AMD down 7.04% — High-valuation tech stocks are extremely sensitive to discount rate changes; rate hike expectations hang like a "Damocles sword" over the AI hardware supply chain.
6. Key Observations for Today and Tomorrow
August 6 (Thursday): The largest stock unlock in US history, with 911.5 million SpaceX shares worth over $100 billion becoming tradable — if sell-offs are below expectations, short covering could trigger a rebound; if actual selling is heavy, high-valuation tech stocks may continue to face pressure.
August 7 (Friday): US July Nonfarm Payroll Report — the "ultimate judge" deciding whether to hike rates in September. If nonfarm payrolls also weaken below 50,000, the market will sharply lower hike expectations, pushing Treasury yields down and gold up; if payrolls rebound above 80,000, a September hike will be almost certain. The US stock market is still the same, never get emotionally attached to it.
The clearest signal this round is:
Cloud providers reversed first, and the market remembered that data centers really do print money.
Capex can still continue, so the semiconductor line won't die.
That's why optical interconnects went crazy first, with AAOI, MRVL, AXTI, LITE all soaring sharply, which is not surprising.
But the biggest taboo here is chasing stocks that have already skyrocketed.
I prefer to focus on the hottest ones from the last round, the ones with the most trapped investors, the most criticism, and the biggest drops, but whose fundamentals haven't deteriorated.
They just need a catalyst.
I myself only trade the hottest coins, never get attached, and sell when they surge.
I don't believe in any $MU tech narratives or $SKHY strong support.
Make profits and run.
You have to be ruthless.
Recently, AAOI dropped 70%, MRVL and AXTI have also broken even, and I'll watch the rest later.
In short:
When rotation comes, the worst performers become the most attractive.
The market is just that cruel.The ADP surprise is just a rehearsal; Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real test for AI stocks
US July ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, below the market expectation of 70,000 and significantly lower than the revised 95,000 in June. Employment is indeed cooling down, but this cannot be directly equated with Friday's official nonfarm payrolls, as ADP only counts the private sector and often deviates from Labor Department data.
First, weaker data temporarily benefits tech stocks.
Slowing employment can ease interest rate pressure. If US Treasury yields continue to fall, there is still room for recent recoveries in Mag 7, optical modules, and storage stocks.
Second, the market does not want employment to collapse completely.
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls meet expectations and the unemployment rate remains stable, the market will continue to trade on a soft landing; if new jobs approach zero or previous values are sharply revised downward again, the logic may shift from "rate cut benefits" to "recession risk."
Third, overly strong data is also not good news.
If nonfarm payrolls and wages significantly exceed expectations, the Fed's room to pivot will shrink, and Treasury yields may rebound. The first to feel the pressure are often not the stocks with the worst fundamentals but the highest-valued AI and semiconductor stocks that just rebounded the fastest.
The market currently expects July nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 80,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. The official report will be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Friday.
So today's ADP only indicates that employment is weakening; it cannot be used to draw conclusions ahead of Friday. The best outcome for AI stocks is not "the worse, the better," but moderate employment cooling, wage slowdown, and no deterioration in the unemployment rate.
ADP is a warning; nonfarm payrolls are the pricing. Here are two meme images#BTC Bear Market Buy: Signals in the Final Stage of the Bear Market
Smart money is broadly building positions across major assets.
Bitcoin whale holdings (excluding exchanges and mining pools) have steadily increased throughout 2026, reaching about 3.06 million BTC. When the price dropped below $60,000 in June, whales actively increased their purchases. However, this is still below the approximately 3.23 million BTC peak seen in the 2025 bull market.
XRP whales are quietly accumulating positions as well. Spot order sizes remain at "whale" levels while the price stays in the $1.0–$1.2 range, but the 90-day receiver CVD is neutral, suggesting accumulation is more through absorption rather than aggressive market buys.
Large ETH holders are buying during the bear market. The 10,000–100,000 ETH cohort has reached about 19.6 million ETH, close to the historical high; whales holding over 100,000 ETH have added approximately 1.8 million ETH (+70%) since mid-2025. Conversely, smaller holders with 1,000–10,000 ETH have been steadily dispersing, reducing about 2.7 million ETH since January.
Valuations are generally near undervalued ranges. Bitcoin (around $64,000) and XRP (around $1.1) trade near their respective realized prices ($52,900 and about $0.75), while ETH (around $1,900) is below its realized price of about $2,450, making it the most undervalued among the three, situated in the latter half of historical bear market ranges.
Risk-adjusted returns have significantly improved but are not fully eliminated. Accumulation by large holders has reduced downside pressure, indicating the final stage of the bear market, but from a pure valuation perspective, there remains potential for further declines before a confirmed bottom forms. ## BTC Report Card for 2026: From $87K to $64K, Has the Bottom Been Confirmed?
Yahoo Finance today released an in-depth analysis reviewing BTC's performance in 2026. It opened the year at $87,440, dropped to as low as $58,559 in June, and has currently rebounded to around $64,000, marking an approximate 27% decline year-to-date, still nearly 50% below the all-time high of $126,200 reached in October 2025.
Although this report card looks bleak, the June low of $58,559 may have been confirmed as the bottom for the year. Since the June low, BTC has rebounded about $5,400 (+9.2%), with July's monthly candle closing up 7.4%. The key question is whether this rebound is strong enough to reverse the mid-term trend or merely a pause in the downtrend.
## Comparison with Historical Cycles: Which Stage Are We In?
Comparing 2026's trend with historical cycles reveals some interesting references:
**2014-2015 Bear Market**: BTC fell from $1,100 to $200, a drop of 82%, taking about 14 months to bottom, followed by 8 months of consolidation before starting a new bull run.
**2018-2019 Bear Market**: BTC dropped from $20,000 to $3,200, an 84% decline, bottoming after 12 months, then consolidating for 4 months before rebounding to $14,000.
**2022 Bear Market**: BTC fell from $69,000 to $16,000, a 77% drop, bottoming in 11 months, followed by 6 months of consolidation before initiating a new bull market.
**Current 2026**: BTC has dropped from $126,200 to $58,559, about a 54% decline over approximately 9 months. Both the magnitude and duration are less than previous bear market cycles. However, the rebound since June is also weaker than the V-shaped recoveries seen after historical bottoms.
## Structural Differences: This Downturn Is Different from Past Ones
This adjustment has several key differences from historical bear markets:
**No industry-wide crisis**. Past bear markets were catalyzed by systemic crises: Mt.Gox in 2014, the ICO bubble burst in 2018, and the FTX/LUNA collapse in 2022. This downturn is driven more by macro factors (high interest rates, tariffs, regulatory uncertainty) rather than structural collapse within the crypto industry.
**Higher institutional participation**. ETF channels, spot market depth, and maturity of derivatives tools are at historical highs. Institutional net inflows of $170 million in a single day still occurred during this bear market, indicating long-term capital has not exited.
**Healthier on-chain fundamentals**. Exchange balances continue to decline, hash rate hits new highs, and the proportion of long-term holders remains stable, differing from on-chain data characteristics during past bear markets.
## Current Core Contradiction
BTC consolidating around $64K reflects the market's core contradiction: **reasonable valuation but lack of catalysts**. On-chain metrics show the current price near the cost basis of long-term holders, so valuation is not expensive; however, there is a short-term lack of catalysts to break through $65K-$70K. The legislative progress of the Clarity Act is the most recent potential catalyst.
Technically, the 50-day EMA ($64,587) and 20-week EMA ($69,445) form a double resistance. BTC needs a volume-backed breakout above these levels to confirm a trend reversal. Meanwhile, $62,662 and $60,000 serve as key support levels below.
## Summary
BTC has declined 27% year-to-date, retracing 50% from its all-time high, but both the drop and duration are less severe than historical bear markets. The $58,559 low in June may be the bottom for the year, but the rebound is not yet strong enough to confirm a trend reversal. The 50-day EMA at $64,587 is a short-term key resistance; breaking above it could open upward potential. Support lies at $62,662. The market is currently awaiting directional catalysts from the legislative progress of the Clarity Act. $SNDK Deep Trading Logic: Understanding the NAND Cycle Means Truly Understanding This Stock
Recently, a clear phenomenon has emerged: more and more people are participating in SNDK trading, but fewer and fewer are consistently profiting.
The core reason is very real: SNDK excels at creating trading illusions.
Most people's trading logic is very simple:
If it drops a bit, they think it's cheap and a good bottom to buy;
If it rises a bit, they think the trend will continue and chase the highs.
The result is: they get shaken out on the rise, trapped on the fall, repeatedly getting slapped by the market.
This happens because many still view SNDK with old perspectives, treating it like the former Western Digital.
But after the spin-off and independent operation, the nature of this stock has completely changed.
Now, SNDK is a pure NAND flash memory play.
Comparing it to MU reveals the difference:
MU has a diverse business structure, holding DRAM, HBM, and AI high-growth sector stories, with relatively stable trends and multiple logical supports.
SNDK is very pure, almost entirely tied to the NAND spot price cycle.
This creates its extreme market characteristics:
Its price movements are never driven by company-specific news,
but by the market's instantaneous repricing of storage cycle expectations.
When NAND prices rise, the market directly prices in profit recovery, and the stock price follows upward;
When NAND prices weaken, the market immediately worries about inventory pressure and profit shrinkage, and the stock price quickly cuts valuation.
This is why many lose money trading SNDK by watching news and candlestick charts.
Because you are watching price movements, but the real driver is the spot cycle.
SNDK has no complex thematic filters; its logic is straightforward and harsh:
Spot price up = valuation rises
Spot price down = valuation collapses
So no need to ask "Can SNDK still be bought?"
The real answer is not in the candlesticks but in NAND pricing.
As long as NAND prices maintain an upward trend, SNDK's upward logic won't break, and there is still room for the market to rise;
Once NAND prices show continuous weakening and turn downward, SNDK's decline speed will far exceed most AI storage stocks.
In summary:
SNDK does not rely on news hype or emotional premiums; it is the truest barometer of the storage cycle.
Understanding NAND price movements means understanding all of SNDK's market behavior.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$SNDK SpaceX's financial report revealed that 92% of revenue growth almost entirely comes from the Starlink business.
The business model is very clear: Starlink provides stable cash flow, continuously funding long-term R&D projects like Starship and artificial intelligence.
However, huge R&D costs keep eating into profits. The ultimate success or failure of this aerospace giant hinges on the global deployment of Starship and Starlink.When the market heats up, insiders are all digging into AI, RWA, and L2 narratives, digging into the ecosystem every day and hyping up the future, all focused on catching the next hundredfold coin. But the vast majority hit the same fatal flaw, focusing only on the project's future story, completely ignoring the selling pressure on the massive unlocked shares behind the scenes. The new coin scheme has long been fixed; only a tiny proportion circulates when launched, FDV valuations are skyrocketing, and a small amount of capital can drive the price into the illusion of doubling. Once the unlock date arrives, venture capitalists, early-stage institutions, and teams unlock low-priced chips, and massive sell orders flood the market. Only then did people realize that the previous rally wasn't driven by strong buying pressure, just that there was no significant selling pressure. Chips concentrated and fled, and the funds to take on couldn't keep up, causing the market to plunge instantly. Here are a few high-risk examples: $ARB when launched, the circulation ratio was less than 20%. After $SUI multiply from the bottom, the number of unlocked tokens in the queue remains staggering, and the total unlocked market $WLD is astronomical. These coins aren't bad; it's just that there are too many future expectations in the current price, and once the cash exchange chips arrive, expectations have to be repriced. Of course, unlocking doesn't necessarily mean a drop is guaranteed; the key is one thing: whether new chips are being poured in and off-exchange incremental funds can be absorbed. Before opening a position, first ask how much circulating supply accounts for the total supply, how FDV has overdrawn several years' gains, what the institution's holding costs are, and where the buying funds come from. $ADA now at $0.19 and $XRP at $1.05, these established coins are still highly volatile, so be especially cautious of the new faces with high FDV. Market narratives can stir emotions, but they can't stop chips from fleeingSanDisk's earnings report is ridiculously strong: revenue of 8.97 billion, expected 8.39 billion; earnings per share $39.25, expected $34.4; gross margin jumped from 78.4% to 84.6%, data center revenue 2.97 billion, directly exceeding expectations by 437%. These numbers are explosive anywhere you put them. So what happened? After hours, the stock not only didn't rally but dropped 5 points.
The market isn't blind; it's very clear-headed. This stock had already priced in the AI storage shortage story in advance, so the earnings report is like the finale of the script. Investors aren't thinking "beat expectations," they're thinking "the good news is fully priced, time to find the next story." Institutional target prices are still above $2400, but that's the moon in 2027. The current rebound stuck around 1430-1450 is just fodder for the bears. Breaking 1300 means adding positions to target 1244; the trend reversal point is 1520. Until that breaks, all rebounds are just turnover.
The real ones taking the hit aren't SanDisk bulls but the Koreans. SK Hynix plunged 5.7%, Samsung cut 2.44%, KOSPI was dragged down 1.8% by these two heavyweights. Foreign and institutional investors dumped over 120 billion KRW in the morning session; retail bottom-fishing funds barely made a splash. Overnight, the semiconductor index fell 1.4%, AMD plunged 7%, US Treasury yields rebounded to 4.615%. Money is flowing back into US Treasuries, and whoever has a high valuation gets hit first. Risk assets like BTC and ETH can't escape this valuation squeeze logic either.
The current divergence is this: Is SK Hynix done falling today and ready to rebound after panic selling, or is this a mid-stage distribution with deeper pits ahead? Some are waiting to buy SanDisk low between 1000-1200, but the short point at 1350 hasn't broken either—I trust the latter more. It's not time to bottom fish yet; wait for a rebound to the 1450 area.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Why Are Memory Stocks Like $SNDK and $SKHYNIX Falling?
Today's sell-off in memory stocks is being driven by several factors—not just routine profit-taking.
$SNDK dropped sharply after issuing forward guidance that disappointed investors. Although the company delivered strong quarterly earnings, its outlook for the next quarter came in below the market's lofty expectations, prompting a classic case of strong results but weaker guidance.
Meanwhile, $SKHYNIX also came under pressure as investors took profits following its impressive AI-driven rally. After significant gains, concerns over rich valuations have encouraged institutions to reduce exposure across the semiconductor sector.
The industry is also facing growing competitive concerns. Chinese memory manufacturers continue expanding production capacity, raising questions about future competition in both the DRAM and NAND markets.
Taken together, softer guidance, profit-taking, and increasing competitive pressure have created a cautious environment for memory stocks—even as the long-term AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) investment story remains largely intact.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback
#EarningsRealityCheck
#CircleArcLaunch Circle announced the launch of its institutional-grade blockchain network Arc on September 16 alongside the release of its Q2 earnings report, which is widely seen by the market as a key bet for USDC seeking new growth.
📊 Q2 Earnings: Slightly Missed Revenue but Operational Resilience
Circle's total revenue and reserve income for Q2 2026 reached $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase but slightly below the market expectation of $713 million; net profit was $48.21 million, a significant improvement from the huge loss in the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, up 8% year-over-year.
In terms of core operational data, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year; on-chain transaction volume was $14.8 trillion, a staggering 151% increase year-over-year. However, it is worth noting that USDC's end-of-quarter circulation was lower than the $77 billion at the end of Q1, and the stablecoin market share also declined by 66 basis points year-over-year to 27%.
Overall, this is a report of "slightly missed revenue but strong core operational indicators."
🚀 Arc: The "Second Curve" for USDC Growth
Arc is widely regarded by the market and analysts as the "biggest highlight" of this earnings report.
· Top-tier institutional backing: Arc is a Layer 1 blockchain using USDC as its native gas token. Its founding validators include 11 financial giants such as BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, and DTCC, with over 100 ecosystem participants already developing on it.
· Directly driving USDC demand: BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund to Arc, and DTCC also plans to tokenize custody assets. These will directly create massive settlement demand for USDC.
· Diversified business model: Circle has completed the ARC token presale, raising $222 million. The company has significantly raised its full-year other income guidance from $150-170 million to $310-330 million (including Arc token presale income), marking a shift in revenue structure from reliance on reserve interest to diversification. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Why did SanDisk's stock plunge 12% despite earnings beating expectations? Let's start with the earnings report itself, which is actually quite good.
SanDisk's recently released earnings show: revenue of $8.97 billion, higher than the market's expected $8.48 billion; earnings per share of $39.25, also above the expected $34.96. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, all sounding like good news, right?
But the stock dropped nearly 12% in one day. What's going on? Three reasons, easy to understand.
Reason 1: The market looks at the "future," not the "past"
Good earnings reflect what has already happened. But Wall Street buys stocks based on whether the next quarter will be even better.
SanDisk's revenue forecast for the next quarter has a midpoint of only $10.55 billion, lower than what everyone previously expected. It's like scoring 90 on a test when the teacher hoped for 95—there's some disappointment. Naturally, the stock price adjusts downward.
Reason 2: Good expectations were "priced in" early
SanDisk's stock has already risen a lot this year. Stories about AI storage and flash price increases have been thoroughly digested by the market. Before the earnings came out, the stock price had already priced in the "good performance" expectation.
When the actual earnings just "meet expectations" without extra surprises, those who bought in on the hype choose to "sell and exit." The phrase in the screenshot "retail investors and whales are trading different scripts" refers to big money taking the opportunity to exit.
Reason 3: Concerns are growing that storage chip price increases have peaked
SanDisk makes storage chips, and their prices fluctuate in cycles. AI demand is indeed hot now, but the market is starting to worry: what if prices can't keep rising? What if demand for high-bandwidth flash isn't as strong as imagined?
This guidance missing expectations gives everyone a reason to worry. Stocks at high levels fear this kind of "uncertainty" the most.
In summary
Buying stocks isn't just about "how well you did this time," but also "whether you can do better next time." SanDisk's case is "the past was good, but the future might not be as good," plus it has risen too much before, so any slight disturbance causes a sharp drop.
As for whether it will rebound later, that depends on actual sales next quarter. The current drop doesn't mean the company is failing; it's just the market recalculating. 🔥 Market Maker Game Theory — Who is selling at $74, and who is buying at $73?
🐻 Sellers: Profit-taking whales
$SOL's clearest sell signal comes from two whales depositing 277,000 SOL (54.23 million USD) to exchanges within the past 3 hours.
Key points of this operation:
· Completed within 3 hours: concentrated timing indicates a planned move rather than coincidence
· Volume of 277,000 SOL: enough to significantly impact the market
· Deposited to exchanges: usually means preparing to sell
During the same period, another whale unstaked 30,010 SOL and deposited it to Binance. Although this whale still has 1.1 million SOL staked, the act of unstaking and depositing to an exchange itself is a warning signal.
🐂 Buyers: The "100% win rate" whale firmly bullish
Corresponding to the sellers, the "100% win rate" whale's SOL long position has surpassed $100 million (501,774.85 SOL), with unrealized profits of about $840,000.
What does the "100% win rate" label mean? It means every previous trade from this address was profitable — either an exceptionally skilled trader or "smart money" with insider advantages. This figure choosing to continue holding SOL longs is an important vote of confidence for the market outlook.
Additionally, analysts point out: there are very few trapped tokens above SOL's price, and whales are in no rush to take profits. If the profitable tokens below remain uncashed, the resistance to SOL's rally is minimal.
⚖️ Real power comparison between bulls and bears
Overall, the $SOL bull vs. bear power comparison is:
Bears: Two whales deposited 277,000 SOL + unstaked and deposited 30,000 SOL ≈ 300,000 SOL potential sell pressure
Bulls: 100% win rate whale holds 500,000 SOL + 1.1 million SOL staked ≈ 1.6 million SOL potential buy/lock-up
In terms of quantity, bulls' power far exceeds bears'. But the issue is:
· Bulls' power is "potential" (holding positions does not equal buying)
· Bears' power is "real" (already deposited to exchanges, ready to sell anytime)
This explains $SOL's current "easy to fall, hard to rise" microstructure — potential buy pressure is large, but real sell pressure is more urgent. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 US employment softened again.
ADP private sector employment in July increased by only 44,000,
while the market originally expected 70,000.
This does not mean "the US economy is finished."
Rather:
The Federal Reserve wants to continue raising rates, but now it has one less reason to do so.
For $BTC, this is obviously short-term bullish.
Employment cooling
→ Less pressure to raise rates
→ US Treasury yields more likely to fall
→ Risk assets get a breather.
But no rush to pop the champagne.
Because weak employment comes in two types:
A gradual cooling is the soft landing BTC prefers.
A sudden deterioration turns into a recession, hitting stocks and crypto alike.
So today's 44,000 is not the final answer.
The real big test is Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If employment continues to cool but the unemployment rate does not worsen significantly, I am actually more bullish on BTC.
The most comfortable scenario is never "the US economy collapsed."
Instead:
Just weak enough that the Fed dares not raise rates,
but not weak enough to make the market fear a recession.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
$SNDK 🚨 Bitcoin doesn't reward the fastest trader... it rewards the most patient holder. ₿
Every dip shakes out weak hands. Every rally creates FOMO. But smart money follows the trend—not emotions.
📈 If BTC breaks key resistance, momentum could accelerate fast. 📉 If it pulls back, strong support zones may offer the next opportunity.
The market doesn't pay those who panic. It pays those who stay disciplined.
💬 What's your Bitcoin target for this cycle? 👇 Drop your prediction in the comments!
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #BullRun #HODL #OKX #CryptoCommunity The earnings report is so strong yet it still dropped 8%, where is the problem with $SNDK?
SanDisk's earnings report is actually very impressive. Quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, exceeding the market expectation of $8.48 billion; adjusted earnings per share reached $39.25, also significantly surpassing the expected $34.96. Data center business revenue was nearly $2.97 billion, up 103% year-over-year, with storage demand driven by AI still very strong. The company also added $14 billion in stock repurchase authorization, with the remaining buyback capacity now at $15.5 billion.
However, the stock price still fell more than 7% in after-hours trading. The main reason is that the next quarter's revenue guidance is only $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, slightly below market expectations. $SNDK has already risen nearly 470% this year; at this level, investors are not looking at how good the past was, but whether the next quarter can continue to beat expectations.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 During the previous live broadcast session, we had already developed a bearish directional strategy for this target. Now that the price has dropped sharply, let's break down the complete logic behind this decline.
From a personal review perspective, the short position established earlier at 1337.26 has seen the current price move down to around 1255, accumulating over 80 points of unrealized profit. The market logic previously judged has been confirmed by the price action.
Let's analyze the full cause of this round of decline from above 1400 down to around 1255.
The company released its Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings report on August 5. The report showed revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $8.39 billion; EPS was $39.25, also better than market estimates. Data center-related business revenue grew nearly 13 times year-over-year, with gross margin soaring to 84.6%, a record high. The company's board also approved a $14 billion stock repurchase plan.
Despite the impressive earnings data, the secondary market did not respond positively. The stock price fell 5.4% during regular trading hours and declined further in after-hours trading, with a maximum drop close to 8%, hitting a low of $1248.
The real drag on the stock price was the outlook for Q1 fiscal year 2027. The company forecasted revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below the institutional FactSet estimate of $10.82 billion. The gross margin outlook ranged from 83% to 85%, signaling that the high gross margin level is likely to enter a plateau phase. Some institutions had already warned that the market had set expectations too high earlier; even with strong current earnings, it would be difficult to drive the price higher. Past performance cannot offset market concerns about future growth strength. As a result, peer companies in the same sector weakened simultaneously, with many targets in the sector experiencing sharp declines, dragging down the entire storage sector sentiment.
Position management strategy
With the earnings report officially released and the negative impact of the disappointing outlook still unfolding, the bearish market structure is basically established. However, after a rapid decline, the short-term pullback amplitude is already significant, so position management needs to be precise and not blindly held.
Dynamic protective stop loss
Lower the stop loss from above the initial entry point to 1320. The current price is around 1255; this stop loss level means that even if a rebound occurs, most of the paper profits can be retained. If the price continues downward toward 1200, the stop loss can be further lowered to 1280 to lock in more profits.
Gradual position exit
First observation range: 1200-1220, close 30% of the position;
Second target: 1150-1160, close another 30%;
Third target: 1080-1100, exit the remaining 40%.
If the price approaches 1200 and volume accelerates the decline, do not close all positions at once; keep some to speculate on continued movement.
Two scenarios for adding positions
First: If the price rebounds to the 1280-1300 range with signs of weakening upward momentum and shrinking volume, consider adding short positions, with a unified stop loss at 1320.
Second: If the price breaks below 1200 with volume, add positions accordingly, moving the stop loss up to 1230, targeting 1150.
Conditions for full exit
If the price breaks above 1320 with volume and holds that level, it means the negative impact of the earnings report has been fully absorbed, and all short positions should be closed;
If the price falls directly to the 1080-1100 target range, also close all positions to avoid chasing the tail end of the move.
Reviewing this position, the short layout initiated at 1337 was validated by the overall trend. The disappointing earnings outlook was the core driver of the weakening trend, and panic in the storage sector continues to spread. The operation relies on dynamic stop loss to protect profits, phased exits to realize swing gains, and waiting for rebound signals before considering adding positions. Two key risks to avoid in trading: one, profits turning into losses; two, being disturbed by short-term panic and ending the swing trade prematurely. Circle made a profit, but the market is more interested in whether Arc can take off
Circle's Q2 revenue reached $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of about $48 million, compared to a loss of $482 million in the same period last year, successfully turning losses into profits. However, revenue was still below the market expectation of $718 million, so the stock price showed some volatility after the earnings report.
The real focus is still on $USDC. The circulating supply at the end of the quarter reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; on-chain transaction volume in Q2 reached $14.8 trillion, a staggering 151% year-over-year surge. This indicates that even if the crypto market is not doing well, the actual usage of USDC is still growing.
Next, the market will be watching Arc. Circle wants to make it the foundational network between institutions, stablecoins, and on-chain assets, having already attracted participation from companies like BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard. The earnings report only proves that Circle is currently profitable; whether Arc can truly bring USDC into the next growth phase is the biggest focus for the stock price going forward.
$CRCL $MSTR #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ $MU Micron simultaneously spans DRAM, NAND, and AI computing core HBM3E/HBM4. Although SanDisk's weakness in the consumer NAND segment brings short-term emotional contagion to Micron, Micron's order schedule in the HBM field extends through 2027, making its fundamental moat more stable than that of a single NAND manufacturer.
Technical and chip distribution:
Micron is currently dragged down by the overall semiconductor sector pullback, with its trend entering a high-level correction.
First support level (testing zone): $860 - $880 (20-day moving average and previous turnover platform).
Second strong support level (core value zone): $800 - $820 (50-day moving average and main force intensive accumulation area).
Key resistance zone: $960 - $1,000.
#MUUSDT #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查
On Monday, Warren and Blumenauer formally sent a letter to SEC Chair Atkins, requesting an investigation into Trump's meme coin TRUMP.
The wording in the letter is strong—"may constitute an illegal scam," "soft rug pull," "illegal fraud or unjust enrichment." The two senators cited several data points: nearly 1 million wallets suffered losses, with total losses around $3.8 billion. Trump himself earned about $636 million from the token. The token's market cap peaked at about $9 billion on January 19, 2025, and has now fallen to less than $400 million. About 80% of the supply is held by entities related to the Trump Organization.
The real impact of this letter is not whether the SEC will investigate—SEC has previously stated that meme coins are not securities—but that it directly ties into the ethical clause negotiations of the CLARITY Act. Democrats are demanding a ban on senior government officials profiting from crypto assets while in office; the Republican version was considered "limited in impact" and was rejected. The latest compromise was submitted to the White House last week, with no response so far. The Senate adjourned on Friday, so the time window is gone. Essentially, this letter is pressure on the White House—if you don't agree to the ethics clause, Democrats will hold up the entire bill over the TRUMP coin issue.
At the crypto market level, the impact is currently limited—TRUMP coin's market cap has dropped to $360 million, with thin liquidity. But it adds another layer of uncertainty to the CLARITY Act's prospects before adjournment. The SEC is unlikely to actually take action, but the political pressure from the letter has already reached the legislative negotiation table.
$TRUMP $SNDK's financial report data itself has no issues. Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a 372% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations. Gross margin reached 84.6%, a record high. Full-year revenue was $20.2 billion, up 175% year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $11.4 billion, compared to a loss of $1.6 billion in the same period last year.
The stock price drop is not due to performance but sentiment, because the stock had already risen 500% year-to-date before the earnings report. Any guidance less than explosive will be interpreted as negative.
The real core change is that the company’s long-term agreements with cloud providers, NBM (a structural contract locking in supply volume and prices for the next few years), increased from 5 to 8, covering two-thirds of the shipment volume through fiscal 2028. This means revenue and gross profit for the next two to three years are already locked in, no longer following the cyclical stock logic of wild price swings.
Next quarter guidance is revenue of $10.3 to $10.8 billion, nearly a 20% sequential increase, and adjusted EPS of $44 to $46. The board also increased the buyback authorization by $14 billion. Management themselves believe the stock is undervalued. I tend to view this pullback as a re-entry opportunity after sentiment release, not a trend reversal. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk ($SNDK) Earnings: Strong Results, Weak Market Reaction
SanDisk delivered an exceptional quarterly report, posting Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion (+372% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, and an impressive 84.6% gross margin. By almost any standard, the results were outstanding.
Despite that, the stock fell 5.4% during the regular session and dropped another 5.9%–8% after hours, briefly trading below $1,272.
The market's reaction wasn't about the quarter that just ended—it was about what comes next.
For FY2027 Q1, SanDisk guided for $10.3–$10.8 billion in revenue (midpoint $10.55 billion), below Wall Street's $11.16 billion estimate. The midpoint EPS forecast of $45 also came in slightly below expectations.
This is a reminder that markets are forward-looking. Even record-breaking earnings can trigger a sell-off if future guidance doesn't clear investors' high expectations.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback
#CircleArcLaunch
#EarningsRealityCheck U.S. employment suddenly cools down, making it potentially harder for the Federal Reserve to reach consensus
In July, U.S. ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, less than half of June's 98,000, marking the weakest data in nearly six months. Manufacturing, mining, and other goods-producing sectors collectively lost 3,000 jobs, with new jobs mainly concentrated in education, healthcare, and financial services.
Interestingly, wages did not cool down along with employment. Employees who stayed in their original positions saw a year-over-year salary increase of 4.4%; those who changed jobs experienced an accelerated wage growth of 7%, hitting a new high in nearly a year. In other words, companies are less willing to hire new employees, but for positions that truly lack staff, competition for talent remains fierce.
This will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to judge. Slowing employment supports rate cuts, but persistent wage pressure causes some officials to worry about inflation rebounding. The market wants to see a clear shift, but the current data offers an answer that is half dovish, half hawkish.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 $SNDK $SPCX $BTC $BTC first does a shakeout to go long, 3x leverage, limit buy at 64000, stop loss at 63300, target T1=65000/T2=65400.
It's been rising for five consecutive days, brothers. After the big bearish candle on 7/30 smashed down to 62227, it has been steadily licking back up. The funding rate is mildly bullish and not crazy—this indicates the bulls still have ammo, but the big mountain at 65400 is blocking the way, so don't all-in and wipe yourself out. Good momentum, but don't get too greedy.
What's the market fussing about?
On the A-shares side, the Shanghai Composite rose slightly by 0.33%, but the ChiNext surged 5.64%, semiconductors went crazy—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 6% overnight, global chips are all hyped, and the Fed's three hawks calling for rate hikes are being ignored by the market. The US Dow Jones hit a new high at 54085, Nasdaq up 2.59%, S&P 1.79%, the overall environment is warm and positive.
Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Index up 0.24%, Hang Seng Tech +0.97%, Alibaba, Baidu, JD all in the green, only Xiaomi dipped a bit.
Back to crypto, $BTC has bounced for five days straight from the low of 62227 to 64494, with a daily average gain of less than 1%—steady but not aggressive. The funding rate averages 0.0023% daily, mildly positive, bulls have confidence but no overexpansion. $ETH is a bit interesting; on 8/5 a +1.63% bullish candle pushed it to 1896, but the funding rate is still negative at -0.0016%—the bears talk tough but are weak in action, saying bearish but getting chased down on the charts.
BTC spot ETFs ended four consecutive days of net outflows, with a net inflow of $32.1 million on Wednesday. Although not much, the direction has turned. BlackRock is still buying, indicating institutions are not collectively bearish but selectively buying.
How to trade $BTC?
On 7/30, a big bearish candle smashed $BTC from 64700 down to 62271, then it slowly climbed back for five days: 62975→63081→63660→64088→64351→64494. This pattern is called a "climbing rebound"—rising slowly but with little pullback. The MA3 moving average has turned upward crossing MA5, forming a short-term bullish alignment.
Trendline forecast: The lows on 8/1 at 62227 and 8/2 at 62268 connect to form an ascending trendline, currently supported near 63800. The resistance is the 7/30 high at 65391; on 8/5 it peaked at 65026 but was pushed back—this $532 upper shadow indicates heavy selling pressure above 65K.
Trading plan: Limit buy at 64000 (near 8/3 close price, meaningful support), stop loss at 63300 (below the double bottom 62227/62268 from 8/1-8/2), targets T1=65000 (near 8/5 high), T2=65400 (approaching pre-7/30 high). Use 3x leverage, after fees the risk-reward ratio is 1.4:1 to 2.0:1, aiming to avoid losses.