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[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh said: The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.29%, the market is sounding the alarm.
Brothers, Pharaoh is laying all cards on the table—the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.29%, the highest since 2007. This measure reflects not just inflation, but that the market's patience with the US government's fiscal discipline has bottomed out, faster than my gym membership expired.
Look at how brutal the data is: On August 13, the Treasury issued $25 billion in 30-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001. The subscription multiple was only 2.39 times, below average, clearly buyers are saying "no price cuts, no bids." Supply keeps increasing, the cost of borrowing on long bonds is skyrocketing—around 5.2% in May, now directly 5.29%—this increase is steadier than my weight rebound.
Don't blame everything on the Fed. After CPI and employment data came out, market bets on a September rate hike actually decreased, but long bonds kept rising. Persistent inflation, expanding deficits, and excessive Treasury supply—these three factors combined have repriced the term premium.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The risk-free rate is above 5%, making the cost of holding zero-yield assets increasingly high. The 10-year real yield is 2.41%, compared to just 1.77% two years ago. Now you can beat inflation just by holding Treasuries; Bitcoin has dropped 46% in the past year, gold has risen 32%—painful, right? So the higher US Treasury yields go, the more pressure on Bitcoin!
$BTC $ETH $GPS #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 ⚠️Attention: Unitree Technology ($Unitree) latest news
Will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market on August 19, 2026!
Stock code: 688836, issue price 150.80/share
Currently, the OTC price has already reached $105 USD; the current contract price has basically priced in the most optimistic first-day increase
From on-chain data:
Contract price rising to $128 (about 6 times the IPO price) → 53% of short positions forced liquidated; this address liquidation = short squeeze climax = shorting opportunity arrives
⚠️Opening position advice:
Don’t rush to enter today! I know you’re eager, but hold on!
Currently, 70% of retail investors are shorting; if there’s no short squeeze, the market maker might as well be doing charity
Best entry opportunity is above $128; if it can’t reach 128 and you’re afraid of missing out, you can enter in batches, don’t fill your position all at once
Finally, wishing all bosses prosperity 💰💰NBIS daily chart weakens, will it pull back after the positive earnings report?
Conclusion: Nebius fundamentals remain unchanged, but the daily chart shows short-term bearishness. This is not a long-term trend reversal but a high-level retracement after the stock price quickly doubled from 140.77, classified as a “pioneer-type pullback trade.”
Fundamentals are still summarized in four words: GPU cloud, full-stack platform, major clients, heavy capital. Q2 revenue was $582.3 million, up 454%; AI cloud revenue increased 514%, ARR reached $3 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $236.2 million. Growth is real, but single-quarter capital expenditure was $5.7 billion, GAAP net loss was $190.4 million, expansion relies on prepayments, debt, and share issuance.
The daily price temporarily fell from 285.57 to 262.25, forming a long bearish candle and breaking below 274.77; MACD remains above zero line but histogram is shrinking, indicating cooling bullish momentum. Price is far from MA20 around $222, leaving room for mean reversion; however, moving averages remain bullish, 259.07 not broken, so trend reversal is not confirmed yet.
Strategy: Do not short near 262. Short again if it rebounds and faces resistance at 274.8–279, or follow if daily breaks below 259; targets are 247 and 233. Reduce position if it recovers to 279, bearish view invalid if it breaks above 285.6.
Memory point: Strong fundamentals do not mean the stock price should rise every day; this bearish view is trading the overheated pullback.
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
For research record only, not investment advice.3600万美元的漏洞，砸塌的不只是 Humanity 协议的金库，更把 BTC 和 ETH 两套信任模型之间的裂缝，又撕开了一道口子。🐂🐻 8月17日前后，Humanity 协议遭攻击、损失约3600万美元的消息快速席卷市场。盘面第一反应是抛售，但细看之下，两类资产在压力面前的姿态完全不同。 比特币的安全模型很简单：“算力 + 私钥”。没有智能合约，就没有协议能被黑，更没有 rug pull 可谈——链上根本不存在一个可以被“掏空”的协议层。持有者不需要盯项目方，不需要读审计报告，他们信赖的是数学、能源和代码的“缺席”。这份信任朴素到近乎原始，却也因此异常坚固。🧱 以太坊则站在另一个极端。它的价值建立在可组合性之上，而可组合性的地基，是每一行智能合约代码都必须精确无误。DeFi 的力量来自于协议像乐高一样拼装在一起，但这也意味着一个零部件的裂痕，可能顺着资金链传导到整个生态。每当出现一个 Humanity 级别的漏洞，这块地基就松动一次。 ETH 持有人被迫持续跟踪每个 DeFi 协议的审计报告、合约权限和风险敞口。这种认知负担本身就是一种成本：当意外事件发生时，你无法像 BTCThe staking rate of $ETH is getting higher and higher. Many people only see the benefits, but I tend to think one step further: what will happen to liquidity if everyone stops selling?
The most comfortable logic of staking is to lock $ETH while earning rewards. As more ETH enters staking, the tradable chips in the market decrease, theoretically reducing supply pressure.
But reduced supply is always a double-edged sword.
When the market is rising, the sell side thins out, making it easier for the same amount of capital to push prices higher; when the market suddenly reverses, if liquidity also thins, prices may become more sensitive. Plus with LST, restaking, and DeFi collateral, a single ETH might be layered with increasingly complex financial positions.
So I wouldn’t simply interpret "more staking" as always positive.
What really matters is whether these ETH are truly long-term locked funds or are being leveraged further through various liquid staking products.
Locking tokens reduces supply comfortably.
But continuing to collateralize, borrow, and cycle leverage after locking is a completely different matter.
The more financialized ETH becomes, the more sources of yield there are.
But in the next extreme market event, the positions that need to be unwound might also be more complex.
#ETH #Ethereum #Staking #DeFi #Crypto #欧易星球 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
I believe the current breakthrough of the 30-year US Treasury yield above 5.3% is not a short-term disturbance but a clear signal of a systemic upward shift in the global long-term interest rate center. Its core driving force has shifted from inflation expectations to supply shocks + asset rebalancing, which will force all risk assets to be repriced.
The judgment is based on a triple data resonance:
The pressure of US Treasury supply is real and persistent. June data from the US Treasury shows that the three major overseas holders—UK, Japan, and China—are simultaneously reducing holdings, while the domestic AI financing boom is driving investment-grade bond issuance to record levels. Long-term funds are being siphoned off by both the government and tech giants.
The sell-off of Japanese government bonds has formed cross-market transmission. The rise in Japanese bond yields indicates this is not a fiscal issue of a single country but a collective shift by global central banks forced to abandon yield curve control between fighting inflation and stabilizing exchange rates.
Asset prices have reached a critical sensitivity to interest rates. When the 30-year US Treasury yield stands above 5.3%, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 needs to compress below 18 times to be attractive. The real interest cost of gold has exceeded 2%, and BTC, as a high-beta liquidity asset, is more easily drained of funds.
The current market pricing implying two Fed rate cuts this year is being contradicted by reality. If the net issuance of US Treasuries remains high in Q3, the 10-year yield may test the 5% threshold, and the 30-year may reach 5.5%. This means the discount rate in growth stock valuation models needs to be raised by 50-80 basis points, and Nasdaq component stocks need to correct by 12%-15% on average to match the new interest rate environment.
@OKX星球 🔥 XIAOMI EARNINGS: THE REAL TEST ISN’T REVENUE — IT’S MARGINS
All eyes on Xiaomi ($1810) today. 📊
Xiaomi is set to release its 2026 interim results on August 18, with investors watching closely to see whether the company can balance smartphone pressure with its aggressive EV expansion.
The setup is interesting:
📱 Smartphones: Q2 shipments reportedly fell 26% YoY, while revenue declined 17% despite higher average selling prices. Rising memory costs and weaker demand are becoming a serious margin test.
🚗 EVs: Xiaomi's electric-vehicle business remains one of the biggest growth engines, but expansion costs are putting pressure on profitability.
💰 The number to watch: Market estimates put Q2 revenue around RMB108B–109B, but the bigger question is whether Xiaomi can protect margins while scaling EVs and AI-related businesses.
🎯 Why it matters:
This isn't just another earnings report.
It could show whether Xiaomi is successfully transforming from a smartphone giant into a broader EV + AI + ecosystem powerhouse — or whether rising costs are starting to eat into that growth story.
Revenue can impress.
Margins will tell the real story. 👀
Xiaomi earnings watch is ON. 🔥📈
#Xiaomi #1810 #Earnings #EV #AI
#XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
The strategic significance of long-term agreements: restructuring industry pricing power
The reason why long-term agreements have triggered such a strong market reaction lies in their structural change to the storage industry's business model:
From "annual negotiations" to "starting from four years"
The storage industry's past contract cycles were usually one year, with prices and quantities renegotiated annually based on supply and demand, giving buyers the upper hand. However, the agreement SanDisk signed this time has a weighted average term of over 4 years, significantly extending revenue visibility.
Although long-term agreements greatly enhance revenue visibility, the following risks should be noted:
Short-term gains have already been large: SanDisk has rebounded over 60% since the late July low, with high-level volatility risks accumulating
Whether the 80% gross margin target can be sustained remains a focus of market debate
Whether the industry will ultimately face oversupply remains a risk point to watch. $SNDK SNDK rose nearly 9 points, WDC rose more than 5 points, MU rose more than 4 points, and STX rose more than 2 points. One stock rising might be a stock market, but four moving together gives a different vibe. $SNDK $MU Recently, when people talk about AI, their attention is focused on NVIDIA, computing power, and chips, but funds are already looking for things to the back. Computing power is piled up to the end, so data still needs to be saved. Last night, MU, SNDK, and WDC all surged upward. Isn't it just another speculation? This line might need to be watched for a while SNDK's strength is hard to ignore, but if I were to chase it directly, I'd be hesitant to buy. It's true that the price has risen sharply, and the volatility is also real. For companies like MU, I'd rather take a closer look. NVDA barely moved last night. Before, seeing NVIDIA sideways might have been boring, but now it doesn't seem like a big deal. As long as it doesn't suddenly drop down, the money in AI will keep looking elsewhere. Last night's strong storage was a prime example. The leader's price not rising doesn't mean the market is gone; it's just that money has gone to the sidelines. Apple is similar, with a slight drop I know it definitely won't be left behind by this AI wave, but there's no strong short-term reason to chase it. If AI really delivers something beyond expectations, a large capital like Apple will return quickly. Tesla has dropped less than a point now. I don't want to look at it from the perspective of ordinary tech stocks right now. This stock is often traded based on expectations. When there's no news, you can wait a long time. If there is news, it can immediately boost sentiment. If I had to pick one of last night's hot sectors, I would focus on it next📊 Let's look at the cards first: four cards, four faces. Xiaomi will release its Q2 2026 fiscal year results after the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 18. Market expectation revenue was 108.82 billion yuan, down 6.15% year-on-year; Earnings per share were 0.20 yuan, down 55.67% year-on-year. Mobile Phone: Volume Declines and Prices Rise, Proactive Contraction Global smartphone shipments fell 11% year-on-year, the lowest Q2 since 2013. Xiaomi's global market share dropped from 14% to 12%, with shipments expected at 31.2 million units, a year-on-year plunge of 27%. But Xiaomi chose a counterintuitive path—actively reducing its low-end shipments. ASP is expected to surge 24% year-on-year to 1335-1340 yuan, setting a new historical high. High-end is advancing, but storage price increases are weighing on gross margins—phone gross margins are expected to be 8%-8.5%, lower than last year. In the words of the Qian hexagram, this is called 'the overbearing dragon has regrets'—the higher the place, the more cold it is. Shipments plummeted 27%, and even hitting new ASP highs couldn't save revenue from decline. Automotive business: The true "flying dragon in the sky" Q2 vehicle deliveries are expected to be 102,000 to 104,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 27%. The mass production and delivery of the new generation SU7 and YU7 are accelerating, and per-vehicle losses are rapidly narrowing. Institutions estimate automotive revenue of 22.9-25.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of around 20%. In September, the Pengcheng series SUVs (N70/N90) will be launched, with a pre-sale price of 259,900 to 299,900 yuan. Although the annual target of 500,000 units is less than 50% complete, new models are the biggest catalyst for the second half of the year. The most auspicious one in the Qian hexagram#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
Awesome! On August 17 (Monday) local time, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly broke above 5.31% during intraday trading and finally closed at 5.310%, marking the highest closing level since June 2007. This level is approaching the historical peak of 5.44% set during the early stage of the 2007 global financial crisis.
The recent breakthrough of the 30-year US Treasury yield above 5.31%, the highest since 2007, is the result of a triple force resonance: fiscal deficit expansion (supply side), soaring oil prices and rekindled inflation expectations (catalysts), and massive bond issuance by AI companies diverting funds (demand side). Unlike previous cycles, this rise in long-term rates occurred against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve having already cut interest rates by 175 basis points, deeply reflecting the market's systemic repricing of US fiscal sustainability, long-term inflation stickiness, and the credibility of Federal Reserve policy. I said don't panic
See, it just came down today
Don't scare yourself first when facing volatility
Calmly break down the problem
$ETH peaked near 1918
But 1910 to 1920 is naturally a short-term resistance zone
Several attempts to break through couldn't hold
Volume didn't significantly increase
Couldn't push higher
Short-term funds naturally fled first
1900 was also lost again
This shows the rebound momentum is weakening
Now let's see if around 1890 can hold
Below that is 1886 to 1880
Only breaking below that gives a chance to approach 1850
News is also suppressing risk appetite
$SNDK ceasefire between US and Iran expired
Oil prices and US Treasury yields rose simultaneously
US 10-year yield once reached about 4.73%
This environment is inherently unfavorable for high-volatility assets like ETH — Reuters
Plus SEC postponed crypto regulatory meeting
The regulatory benefits the market was waiting for fell through again
So today's drop is not mysterious
Resistance wasn't broken
$BEAT incremental funds are insufficient
Combined with macro risk aversion
Bulls naturally withdrew some positions first
But I won't brag
My short position average price is 1874
Still haven't really broken even
1950 is still the forced liquidation line
Being right on direction doesn't mean position safety
Especially at 100x leverage
You can talk tough
But margin can't pretend to be a hero
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 🟢🔴 Review of Ouyi Contract Gainers and Losers｜August 18 Midday
🟢 Top 10 Gainers
Symbol Price Change Key Highlights
$PIEVERSE 0.9838 +16.04% Metaverse concept pulse, trading volume ₽1.237 billion, small cap easy to pump but sustainability remains a concern
$SKDD 9.83 +8.86% 2x short Hynix ETF, inverse reflection of US storage leader pullback, watch out for leverage decay
$SOXS 40.02 +7.58% 3x short semiconductor ETF, chip sector under pressure, short tools favored, volatility amplified
$H 0.12474 +7.57% Humanity Protocol rebounds, trading volume ₽6.981 billion, intense capital game, clear rollercoaster traits
$CAP 0.07043 +5.70% Trading volume as high as ₽10.587 billion, large funds pushing price up, beware of profit-taking
$OFC 0.008659 +5.40% OneFootball sports fan token, ₽302 million volume, small cap self-entertainment, limited follow-up buying
$COMP 17.51 +5.17% Compound, veteran DeFi, ₽527 million volume, defensive rebound after oversell, not a trend reversal
$GPS 0.016573 +5.15% GoPlus Security with ₽26.06 billion volume, only 5% gain, huge volume but price stagnant, strong bulls and bears divergence
$VVV 13.139 +4.64% Venice Token new coin hype, ₽275 million volume, short-term speculative funds, lacks fundamental support
$OPN 0.0542 +4.21% Opinion small cap follows gains, only ₽131 million volume, poor liquidity, easily influenced by large orders
🔴 Top 10 Losers
Symbol Price Change Key Highlights
$ZHIPU 128.6 -17.65% Zhipu AI concept leads decline, ₽639 million volume, previous gains retraced, clear AI sector downturn signal
$MINIMAX 36.96 -13.46% MiniMax Group plunges, ₽236 million volume, funds flee after concept hype
$KORU 21.79 -12.14% 3x long Korea ETF, Korean market weakness plus leverage decay double hit, inverse tools favored
$KAITO 0.3288 -11.23% Former AI hot coin, ₽2.686 billion volume, profit-taking continues after concept fades, bears dominate
$IRYS 0.01358 -11.07% Irys storage/data concept, ₽59.96 million volume, follows sector pullback, liquidity drying risk
$OUST 46.8 -9.70% Ouster lidar US stock mapping, ₽157 million volume, very small cap, influenced by US stock sentiment
$WLD 0.3263 -9.44% Worldcoin high volume ₽6.447 billion but big drop, OpenAI concept cooling, main players decisively selling
$KIOXIA 366.06 -9.15% Kioxia storage leader pullback, ₽359 million volume, storage sector sentiment reversal, short-term pressure
$GALA 0.001495 -8.51% Gaming metaverse old coin, ₽319 million volume, no new narrative stimulus, passively follows market down
$SLX 0.06447 -8.46% Solstice follows small coins collective pullback, ₽40.34 million volume, no independent trend, drifting with market
💡 Midday Summary
On the rise: No strong mainline. PIEVERSE, VVV, OPN are all small cap pulses; SKDD and SOXS two short ETFs on the list indicate US storage and semiconductor sectors are pulling back; COMP is a veteran DeFi oversold rebound; H rebounds but with extreme volatility. Most notable is GPS: ₽26.06 billion volume but only 5.15% gain, huge capital turnover but price can't push higher, weak upward momentum, could reverse anytime.
On the decline: AI sector fully cooling off. ZHIPU leads with -17.65%, KAITO and WLD follow closely, coins propped up by concepts now exposed. KORU (3x long Korea ETF) down 12%, showing Korean market weakness. KIOXIA (Kioxia) down 9%, storage sector sentiment reversed. Losers generally have high volume, indicating funds decisively exiting old hotspots.
Key signals: Two short US semiconductor ETFs (SKDD, SOXS) rank high among gainers, while storage leader KIOXIA and AI concept coins are among losers. This shows global tech sectors are pulling back, crypto cannot remain unaffected. GPS’s huge volume with stagnant price is a warning—possibly the last turnover before a storm.
Strategy: Without confirmed capital dispersion signals, sudden strong green candles are likely traps. H’s drop yesterday and rise today is a live example; chasing highs is a direct trap. Don’t rush to open new positions at midday; wait for US market open direction guidance and control your trades.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $DOGE Why can't it keep rising?
I believe one important reason is that DOGE has deeply integrated into the $BTC-dominated market pricing system.
As a high-liquidity, high-Beta mainstream coin, DOGE has been incorporated into the same asset portfolio by numerous quantitative strategies, market-making models, arbitrage systems, and risk management models.
When BTC shows a downward signal, the system first recognizes that the overall crypto market risk is rising.
At this time, quantitative strategies will reduce overall risk exposure, and high-Beta assets are often prioritized for reduction.
DOGE happens to be such a high-Beta asset.
This easily forms a very awkward structure:
BTC rises → funds do not necessarily flow to DOGE;
BTC falls → DOGE is very likely to be reduced simultaneously. The market remains hovering at historic highs. Any retail investor with some savings will inevitably develop the illusion at some point: they see farther and see more clearly than most people. This is a reality repeatedly played out in the storage sector. When companies pitch ambitious future narratives—such as optimistic guidance of maintaining gross margins above 80% over the next three years—massive market participants instantly reach consensus. Many people are certain that this recognition comes from their own independent and deep thinking. But they refuse to face it: the speed at which they agree with this story is almost exactly the same as the candlestick climbing upward. Everyone longs for the dignity of a "bottom-up layout"; Faced with voices of bearish and short sellers, one instinctively feels righteous indignation: when the market is on the rise, why should we be bearish? This confidence comes from a mental trap: using a single bullish candlestick to fully demonstrate the entire distant future. Just a week ago, the same group was still panicking about a rapid decline and fearing an impending stock market crash; A week later, overseas semiconductors rebounded sharply in a single day, the storage sector surged violently, and they immediately called for the return of the bull market. The shift in mindset came without resistance; it wasn't that they completely forgot last week's fears. But the window of human memory is firmly framed by short-term market trends. The current market volatility naturally crushes all past memories with weights. Old panic and new frenzy are on opposite ends; recent realities always carry overwhelming weight. This has nothing to do with intelligence; it's a deeper cognitive dilemma. To borrow a restrained yet sharp comment: If a person's judgment can only be seen by others,What BTC has never lacked is positive news,
but solid incremental buying power.
Recently, it seems stable around 64000,
but the market is actually very cold with a sharp decline in trading volume.
Volatility has dropped to a multi-month low.
On the surface, it looks like it can't fall further, but essentially neither bulls nor bears are willing to take the initiative.
ETF data is even more convincing.
At the beginning of August, BTC spot ETFs briefly saw continuous inflows,
but recently they have weakened again.
From August 12 to 14, net outflows were 61.1 million, 131.1 million, and 56.2 million USD respectively, bleeding for three consecutive days.
After macro positive news landed, the price showed no reaction,
which fully illustrates that what the market currently lacks most
is real money willing to continuously enter and catch the falling knife. $BTC 过去一周，加密市场最值得玩味的消息，不是某条K线的突破，也不是某只山寨币的异动，而是那个曾经让全市场瞩目的“囤币巨鲸”Strategy，再次选择了沉默。 这家由迈克尔·塞勒掌舵的比特币持仓大户，刚刚公布了最新一轮资本运作细节。数据显示，Strategy通过增发MSTR股票，再度募得3.337亿美元资金，同时回购了价值1.322亿美元的STRC优先股。这一进一出之间，公司的美元现金储备增加了1.5亿美元，总规模升至48亿美元。按照当前财务成本测算，这笔资金足以覆盖未来约2.8年的贷款利息与优先股股息支出。 换句话说，Strategy的“防守垫”又厚了一层。 但真正让市场讨论热度升高的，是另一个细节：这已经是Strategy连续第八周没有增持任何比特币。对于一家以“不断买入BTC”为标签、且曾被视作加密市场多头信心风向标的公司而言，八周按兵不动，确实值得深挖。 有人把这解读为恐惧，说“连币圈最大的多头都害怕了”；也有人认为恰恰相反，说明公司在为更极端的市场波动做准备。两种说法都有各自的市场心理基础，但回到事实本身，我们或许能看到一幅更完整的画面。 从账面数据看，Strategy依然持有超过BTC broke through 64,000 again, reaching a high of 64,591. The most interesting part of this rally is that before the US-Iran ceasefire news came out, BTC had already risen by more than half. The news only gave a push. What really kicked BTC up was the easing of inflation and the weakening of the dollar—these underlying macroeconomic movements, not just news about the $BTC $ETH $SNDK market. In the past day, 186 million positions were liquidated across the internet, with short positions accounting for 79%. BTC itself blew up 95 million, with the air force being pinned down and rubbed against the ground. The current problem is after the wash out Can the bulls keep pushing? Today, the main focus is on US new housing starts, building permits, industrial output, and Home Depot earnings. These data reflect whether the US economy and consumption can withstand high interest rates—more directly than CPI. The real highlight is the Jackson Hole annual meeting from August 20 to 22. This is the biggest variable. If Wash leans dovish, BTC keeps pushing to 65,000; if bullish, it will return to around 62,800 to find support. Right now, I'm torn between waiting for a pullback to chase the bulls or to guard against a rally and pullback. Key positions and strategies can be discussed. Short-term bulls have the advantage But the real direction is at Jackson Hole #earningsObserver: Xiaomi is about to release its financial report. Which business line do you favor most? #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%, long-term agreements are under scrutiny The quieter the market, the more it tests faith
Today, BTC is fluctuating around $64,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $21.5B. The total market capitalization of the entire crypto market is approximately $2.28T, with BTC's market dominance around 56%. The most interesting thing is: the market hasn't given people a thrill; instead, it has started to filter out the true long-term believers. In a bull market, everyone is a believer; during a correction, you find out who really believes in blockchain. Whether BTC falls now or not is not the most important thing; what matters is that it still has the deepest liquidity, the strongest consensus, and increasingly mature financial infrastructure. Assets like SOL and SUI, which are highly elastic, feel more like another test—the narrative can be very appealing, but ultimately it comes back to users, capital, and real usage. Especially, SUI's recent stablecoin transaction volume and ecosystem expansion are worth continued observation. So don't be led by the red and green candlesticks of one or two days. The real big opportunities never appear when everyone is comfortable. What you are seeing now—is it "consolidation," or is the next round of the market gathering strength? #BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #blockchain#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
Overnight $SNDK closed up about 7.4% (intraday up to +8%), continuing investors' revaluation trend. The market is no longer just focused on NAND spot prices but on the new NBM business model trading it: it has signed multi-year long-term agreements with 8 customers (including 3 large-scale US cloud providers), with a weighted term of over 4 years. Based on the floor price, the contract value is approximately $93.9 billion, covering about 50% of FY27 and about two-thirds of bit shipments in FY28, supported by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.
Combined with the FY28-30 guidance (mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, free cash flow margin around 50%, and 100% of remaining cash after investment returned to shareholders), SanDisk is shifting from a "cyclical storage stock" to an "AI infrastructure + SaaS-like cash flow" valuation track.
There is clear spillover on the market: WDC, SK Hynix, and Micron also rose, rewriting the logic of the storage sector—AI inference KV cache/intermediate data is elevating SSDs from accessories into the computing power chain. However, note that the single-day +8% has partially priced in expectations and volatility is extreme; do not mistake the narrative for a buy signal at highs. A pullback to verify long-term contract fulfillment is the true touchstone.$MSTR has paused buying $BTC for five consecutive weeks and shifted to capital defense. Its $4.8 billion cash reserve conflicts with a $10 billion book unrealized loss, becoming the core contradiction in the current market's assessment of whether its flywheel effect has stopped.
In the latest week, the institution raised $333.7 million through the ATM program, of which $52.4 million was used to pay STRC dividends, $132.2 million to repurchase preferred shares, and $149.1 million converted to reserves, maintaining a holding of 840,447 coins. This confirms its strategic shift from continuous accumulation of coins to capital management.
The current factors driving market pricing are, in order: the marginal impact of BTC price fluctuations on the $10 billion unrealized loss, the efficiency of ATM financing and the consumption rate of preferred stock interest, and the market recognition of BTC content per share under the new flywheel narrative.
The trigger condition for the bullish scenario is a BTC price rebound above the $75,385 cost line, at which point the $10 billion book unrealized loss will be cleared. If the STRC price simultaneously rises above $100, the low-dividend financing channel will reopen, allowing it to repurchase BTC. The failure signal for this path is ATM weekly financing below $100 million.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is BTC price falling below $60,000, which will cause the book unrealized loss to continue expanding and may trigger a credit rating downgrade. If the stock price decline reduces ATM financing efficiency, the consumption rate of the $4.8 billion cash reserve will accelerate. The failure signal for this path is BTC recovering above $70,000.
During BTC consolidation, if preferred stock interest and repurchase expenditures continue to maintain above $180 million per week, the defense duration of its cash reserve will shorten.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are MSTR's ATM fundraising announcements and whether STRC's trading price falls below the key financing breakeven point.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖Account Position Divergence Radar
The number of long and short positions is one layer, and the head position weight is another layer; the real misalignment is often hidden between these two layers.
$DOGE overall and top accounts are leaning towards the long side, but the top position size remains on the short side, which is a clear set of account/position divergences. The 15-minute decline is accompanied by a contraction in risk exposure; first observe the speed of position reduction, do not interpret it as new short positions. What the long side lacks next is not more accounts, but confirmation of the head position weight.
$PEPE has more accounts biased long, but the head position weight is biased short; the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position size. Price closes positions with reductions, funds are withdrawing, but the price has not yet given a direction. Until the head position ratio returns above 1, the advantage of long accounts remains an incomplete consensus.
$GPS account direction is biased short, head position direction is biased long; the number of accounts and capital weight stand on opposite sides. The 15-minute rise with position reduction looks more like short covering or overall withdrawal, new longs have not yet been confirmed. What the short side lacks next is not more accounts, but confirmation of the head position weight.$BTC BTC
Current price is 64161. After a strong hourly surge reaching a high of 64591, it has started to pull back, which is a typical retracement following a peak.
Market status
1. A rebound started from the bottom at 62508, with strong short-term bullish momentum pushing to a new phase high of 64591;
2. After the peak, a long upper shadow candlestick appeared, indicating clear resistance above. Short-term bullish strength has weakened, leading to a partial retracement of gains;
3. The overall major structure has shifted from low-level consolidation to a bullish bias. This is just a pullback after the rise, not a direct reversal into a bearish trend.
Key levels
• Upper resistance: 64550‑64590, the recent high. If it stabilizes above here again, bulls will continue to expand upward space
• First support: 63800‑64000, the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness
• Strong support: around 63200, the launch platform for this rebound. Breaking below here would disrupt the current rebound rhythm
Practical advice
Now is not suitable for chasing longs, as the price just peaked and volatility will be relatively high.
• Shorting: plan to enter near the previous high resistance zone on the rebound, avoid shorting during the pullback
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 The US ETFs have brought $BTC and $ETH into the gateway of traditional finance, but the next wave of growth may not be in New York, but in accounts in Hong Kong, Seoul, and Singapore.
Several data points illustrate this well: Hong Kong's BTC and ETH spot ETFs have grown from less than $100 million at the end of last year to over $400 million now. Although the absolute value is not large, the average monthly net inflow has been increasing. South Korea is even more remarkable, with Upbit and Bithumb often exceeding $10 billion in single-day spot trading, with BTC-related trading pairs dominating and retail investors contributing over 60% of the activity. In Singapore, licensed funds and family offices have roughly doubled their crypto exposure in the past year. Several Japanese institutions have also started providing BTC and ETH custody allocations for high-net-worth clients, with over 40% of family offices in surveys treating BTC as a gold substitute.
The differentiation is also clear: Asian wealth holders accept BTC far more than ETH because the "digital gold" narrative is simpler and more direct. ETH, on the other hand, is more aligned with the portion of institutional funds genuinely interested in the Web3 ecosystem. Funds in Hong Kong and Singapore are increasing allocations, but the pace is noticeably slower.
Therefore, the next round of competition between BTC and ETH may not just be a capital race among Wall Street ETFs, but whether the Asian wealth market will place them respectively into the "store of value" and "growth asset" categories. Whoever secures the position first will gain the pricing power for the next phase.
This is solely a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. Long position closed, preparing to go short.
---
Market trend analysis:
The last long was at 1720, exited at 1789, +38% profit.
But now the market feels like it can't rise anymore.
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk has rallied from 998 to 1827, a rebound of over 80% in two weeks.
The 93.9 billion long-term agreement is solid, but the stock price has mostly priced in this story.
Trading volume topped the US stock market, with five consecutive days up 35%, high volume at the top + increased volatility — a signal of short-term emotional peak.
Hedge funds have started to diverge; some are adding positions while others are liquidating.
Kramer also said the market worries whether the current high profit levels can be sustained.
My plan (strategy sharing):
Looking for an opportunity to short around 1750-1780.
Stop loss at 1830, target first at 1680, then 1600.
If wrong, stop loss; if right, take profit.
Rhythm is more important than direction.
---
Family, if you think it can reach 1600, press 1. 🖐️
$SNDK
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 30-year US Treasury yield rises to a 19-year high
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, marking the highest level since 2007, while the 10-year US Treasury yield also climbed above 4.7%.
Is a historic financial crisis coming? I don't know.
But the Federal Reserve is indeed in a tough spot right now: it wants to cut rates but fears inflation rising; if it doesn't cut rates, it's hard to ease the pressure on the economy and fiscal situation—truly stuck between a rock and a hard place.
What's even more damn troublesome is that the rise in the 30-year Treasury yield is no longer just about what the Fed does; fiscal deficits, government bond supply, inflation expectations, and overseas capital demand are all influencing long-term rates.
So in the short term, I'm actually planning to make fewer moves.
I already sold $SKHY yesterday, planning to operate less and observe more for now. Many people buy $BTC
to make quick money.
But those who really make big money
often rely on one ability:
Patience.
Waiting for the market to go crazy,
waiting for the cycle to repeat,
waiting for their judgment to be proven by time.
The most expensive thing in the world
is never an asset.
It is the patience that ordinary people cannot have.
$BTC rewards
are never just capital.
But also those who are willing to go through the darkness. $BTC $SNDK I find this market trend quite interesting: SanDisk is rising, and so is Bitcoin. On the surface, one is US semiconductor stocks, the other is cryptocurrency—completely unrelated. But if you look at recent markets together, you'll find they're actually trading the same thing—risk appetite and liquidity expectations are resurfacing. SanDisk's recent rise is not a sudden "improvement." AI data centers are still aggressively consuming storage, and SanDisk's recently announced long-term plan is quite aggressive, expecting revenue to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth in fiscal years 2028–2030, while the market is beginning to reprice the profitability of storage chips. In the past few trading days, SanDisk's cumulative gains have been extremely exaggerated. More importantly, the AI sector is heating up again. Anthropic's explosive revenue growth and continued expansion of AI infrastructure are driving more than just Nvidia. Storage, hard drives, and optical communications have all started to be hyped again. So you'll notice that yesterday SanDisk surged, and Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, and others also moved along with it. Then let's look at Bitcoin. BTC's recent rise is also not based on the logic given by the market that "Bitcoin suddenly has a major technical breakthrough." Instead, concerns about further US rate hikes have eased, and expectations for the dollar and interest rates have shifted, giving risk assets some breathing room. Bitcoin briefly returned to around $64,000. So what I'm most concerned about right now is actually not thatFrom the perspective of market practice, tokenized US stocks have numerous structural flaws and trading traps. Their touted 7×24-hour trading is essentially just market maker quote continuation, with no real depth at night and extremely wide spreads, which easily leads to abnormal fluctuations detached from the main board, causing retail investors to suffer high slippage losses.
At the same time, tokenized assets heavily rely on oracle price feeds and centralized issuance mechanisms, with prices and circulation fully controlled by the platform, posing risks of price manipulation, targeted liquidation, and data falsification. Unlike regulated exchanges, on-chain token assets have no insurance compensation or formal liquidation guarantees, making asset recovery extremely difficult once faced with hacker attacks or platform collapses.
Although tokenization theoretically offers advantages such as fast settlement and divisibility, the risks are fully upfront at the current stage. Before the market matures and mechanisms are standardized, its trading stability and fund security are far inferior to traditional regulated US stocks. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Everyone, the 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to the 5.29% to 5.32% range, marking the highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield is also around 4.72%. This line is the gravitational center for all asset valuations; when it rises, the valuation anchors for all risk assets must be recalculated.
Why has it reached this level? Several reasons combined. The scale of US debt continues to expand, pressure on long-term bond issuance is increasing, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target. In June, the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings, shrinking overseas demand. The AI financing boom has pushed up the issuance scale of investment-grade bonds, intensifying competition for long-term funds.
For BTC, rising long-term rates mean the risk-free rate is increasing, reducing the attractiveness of risk assets. The directional judgment for Bitcoin at 65000 and Ethereum at 1950 remains unchanged, but if US Treasury yields continue to push higher from this position, the timeline for a breakout will be extended. The path will be more tortuous; the direction hasn't changed, but the process has.
Everyone, be cautious with operations at this position. Rising long-term rates represent the biggest macro uncertainty; they don't directly determine BTC's direction but will affect the speed and strength of capital inflows. Don't hold positions so heavy that you can't sleep; it's not too late to increase them once long-term rates stabilize. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The biggest current risk of tokenized U.S. stocks is not a technical flaw, but the serious lag in regulatory and legal systems. At present, there is no unified global compliance standard, and most tokenized U.S. stocks issued by platforms fall into a regulatory gray area, not fully covered by the traditional securities legal framework. The U.S. SEC has maintained a cautious and tightening stance on asset tokenization for a long time and may introduce restrictive, reclassification, or shutdown policies at any time, leading to product delisting and liquidity freezes.
Secondly, tokenized U.S. stocks generally suffer from a separation of rights issue. Investors only hold on-chain income certificates, not legally registered shareholders with real names, and core rights such as voting rights, stock allocation, and legal recourse are generally missing. The underlying assets are held in custody by third parties, and the authenticity and segregation of reserves cannot be fully transparent, posing risks of platform misappropriation and payment default.
Overall, tokenized U.S. stocks represent financial innovation driven by technology ahead of institutional development. Before regulatory confirmation, custody audits, and investor protection mechanisms are implemented, their institutional risks far outweigh the benefits, making them a highly uncertain asset class. Many people think that
$BTC changes the distribution of wealth.
In fact, it changes one question:
"Who exactly defines money?"
In the past,
currency needed institutional endorsement.
After $BTC appeared,
someone tried for the first time to create a kind of:
asset that belongs to no country,
requires no one's permission,
and whose total supply cannot be arbitrarily increased.
It might succeed,
or it might fail.
But it has already left a question:
If humanity can redesign money,
why can't we redesign the future? #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
I believe that in Xiaomi's upcoming earnings report, innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles and AI will be the most favored growth engines, as they have moved from the cash-burning volume phase to a critical turning point of scale realization and gross margin recovery, with unique ecological synergy advantages.
The judgment is based on three aspects of data and events:
Delivery volume continues to climb: 80,856 vehicles delivered in Q1 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; Q2 saw over 30,000 vehicles delivered monthly for three consecutive months, with a cumulative total exceeding 180,000 in the first half of the year. On August 17, the official announcement stated that the SU7 series reached cumulative deliveries of over 500,000 units in 28.5 months, setting the fastest delivery record for a pure electric coupe in China.
Revenue structure optimization: This business segment generated revenue of ¥19.9 billion in Q1, up 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for over 20% of the group's total revenue. With the volume increase of the YU7 SUV model and the rising proportion of the high-end SU7 Ultra, the average selling price and gross margin are recovering simultaneously—although the gross margin fell to 20.1% in Q1, brokers generally expect quarterly profitability in Q4.
Capacity and ecological barriers: The two Beijing factories maintain a stable monthly production capacity of over 45,000 vehicles, and the Wuhan factory had a stocking capacity of 15,000 vehicles in August; meanwhile, leveraging the smartphone × AIoT ecosystem for traffic, the SU7/YU7 forms a combination of sedan volume and SUV market expansion in the 200,000–300,000 yuan range, with user conversion efficiency far exceeding that of traditional automakers.
@OKX中文 $XIAOMI $SKHX Smart money just showed a clear reversal once.
One swing wallet reduced its position to about 79k USD in the last round and placed orders to exit; then quickly replenished to about 322k USD, adding approximately 243k USD. Another mid-term wallet still holds about 122k USD, with no change in direction.
At the same time, there is a high turnover wallet that expanded its long position to about 729k USD, but due to excessive trading frequency, I don't count it as a stable signal.
What really deserves attention is: the previously exited swing funds have returned, while the mid-term chips have never left.Bitcoin has climbed back near $64,360, and the market's first reaction is often: is this a reversal? Don't rush to pop the champagne just yet. The real change behind this rebound isn't a sudden influx of funds, but a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's September policy. Current market pricing shows about a 69% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September. Meanwhile, the 2-year US Treasury yield has dropped about 20 basis points since July 23. Taken together, these two changes mean something quite simple: the market is temporarily less afraid of the Fed continuing to tighten. For a highly volatile and risky asset like Bitcoin, this is enough to serve as a lifeline. Previously, ETF funds saw outflows, and Bitcoin and Ethereum were clearly under pressure. Market observations also show that recently, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows have indeed been volatile, with institutional demand not forming a sustained one-way inflow. So now an interesting situation has emerged: macro pressure has eased a bit, but funds have not fully returned. This is why I tend to define the price action near $64,360 as a "expectation repair rebound" rather than a confirmed trend reversal. As long as the market believes the risk of further Fed rate hikes has decreased, short-term Treasury yields fall, and pressure on dollar liquidity eases, funds will seek out high-elasticity assets again. Bitcoin naturally won't miss this opportunity. But here is a very important detail: the 69% probability of no rate cut in September does not mean the market is bullish on Bitcoin. It more so means: the worst-case scenario hasYesterday afternoon, I entered a long position on Bitcoin at 63640, and this morning exited precisely at 64310, pocketing a 700-point profit, with 3352U in hand.
The logic behind this trade was simple—Monday's market showed low volume and sideways movement, with bearish sentiment fully saturated and a severe imbalance between bulls and bears. Experience tells me that such times are often windows for market reversals.
Sure enough, volume started to pick up overnight, pushing prices up aggressively, with short positions massively liquidated, driving the price above 64310.
This morning, I took a quick look and immediately had my brother exit all positions at 64310. Take what you should take, and decisively exit when it's time.
In trading, it's not about who predicts better, but who can hold on and exit properly.
The market rewards the patient and teaches lessons to the greedy.
Bitcoin might still undergo a small intraday pullback; wait for a retracement opportunity to find a new position. No stubbornness, no fighting battles unnecessarily, just keep the rhythm.
With so many brothers still standing behind, Xiao Xiao won't miss any results that should be taken.
Stay hungry!!昨晚的行情，与其说是多头在进攻，不如说是空头在撤退。 24小时内，全网爆仓7.56亿美元，其中空头爆仓5.86亿美元，占77.5%。多空比从1.66一路飙至2.41，最高触及3.78。这不是多头在猛攻，而是空头在集中回补。 行情回顾：从63,028美元反弹至64,610美元 BTC最低触及63,028美元，随后反弹至64,610美元，当前报价64,315美元，24小时涨幅约2%。 价格从63,000美元上方反弹，暂未跌破62,000美元关键防线。这一技术特征表明短期支撑结构仍在，但64,600美元尚未被有效突破。 清算数据：空头集中回补主导了这轮上涨 过去24小时全网爆仓约7.56亿美元，其中空头爆仓约5.86亿美元（77.5%），多头爆仓约1.71亿美元（22.5%）。 这一数据表明，本轮上涨的主要驱动力是空头平仓回补，而非现货市场的主动买入。当空头被迫平仓时，平仓买入订单本身会推动价格上涨，形成“上涨→空头平仓→进一步上涨”的短期正反馈。 多空比从1.66升至2.41，部分时段高达3.78-3.97——这意味着空头持仓在大幅收缩，多头持仓相对增加。但多空比的快速上升不一定来自新多头公开实盘账户：0x000b8acb515609c0a4a407915497cf3827395777 初始资金：1,000 U 快照时间：2026-08-18 08:00 UTC+8 最新持仓 当前账户权益约 995.5 USD，调仓已经执行完成： • $XMR 多头约 747.3 USD，目标 0.75x • $SKHX 多头约 647.1 USD，目标 0.65x • $MSFT 多头约 442.8 USD，目标 0.45x 实际总敞口约 1.84k USD，总敞口与净敞口约 1.85x。目标跟踪误差约 0.006，账户没有未成交订单。 调仓记录 相较上一轮，本次只调整 $SKHX：目标由 0.40x 恢复至 0.65x，增加约 249 USD 的方向敞口。 $XMR 与 $MSFT 的核心来源没有变化，继续保持 0.75x 和 0.45x。 调仓思路 上一轮下调 $SKHX，是因为一个波段来源从约 247k USD 降至 79k USD，并挂单准备退出。 但随后官方成交数据显示，这个钱包重新买入约 243k USD，持仓回升至约 322k USD。另一个中期来源始终持有约 122kThe current crypto market feels more like building up momentum than crashing. Trading activity in $BTC and $ETH has cooled significantly, with spot, futures, options, and order book liquidity lacking sufficient signals to confirm a trend breakout. BTC has recently been fluctuating repeatedly around the $63K–$65K range, while ETH is hovering around $1.85K–$1.92K, with market participants clearly becoming more cautious. Interestingly, in the first week of August, spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the US market still attracted about $1.1 billion in funds, with BTC ETFs accounting for about $865 million and ETH ETFs about $244 million. However, the price did not expand strongly in tandem, indicating that some ETF buying is being offset by selling pressure and low liquidity in other markets. Afterwards, capital momentum began to weaken. For example, on August 13, BTC ETFs had a single-day net outflow of about $131 million, while ETH ETFs recorded only about $6.7 million in net inflows, showing a clear divergence in funds. This is also the most noteworthy point at present: 📉 prices have not crashed, but trading volume has not expanded 📉. ETFs once saw strong inflows but have recently shown recurring 📉 fluctuations. Participation in derivatives and spot trading remains low 📈. A true trend breakout still requires new capital catalysts. Recent U.S. regulatory developments have also brought uncertainty to the market. Obstacles in the CLARITY Act and postponement of SEC-related meetings have made institutional funds more cautious in the short term. So, I won't simplify this trend right nowThe same stock, Nomura sees 905, Macquarie sees 275. A price difference of 630 HKD.
The institutions are in an uproar.
Nomura says 905 HKD, CICC says 604 HKD, Goldman Sachs says 560 HKD, Citi says 507 HKD, Morgan Stanley says 505 HKD, UBS says 650 HKD.
The harshest is Macquarie—275 HKD.
The highest and lowest differ by 630 HKD, more than double.
This is not an analysis bias. This is a fundamental disagreement on what "Lao Pu Gold" really is.
The bulls are telling one story.
Nomura says: The weak sales in Q2 have largely been priced in by the market; if gold prices stabilize, the company still has the potential to become a high-end consumer brand in China.
JPMorgan is even more bullish, still calling for 1296 HKD in June, then lowering to 1064 HKD by the end of July—but still twice the current price.
What do the bulls believe?
They believe China needs its own Hermès.
Lao Pu’s stores are located in SKP and Taikoo Hui, neighbors to LV and Cartier. LVMH’s boss Bernard Arnault personally spent half an hour visiting the store, saying "very exquisite, very interesting." Richemont Group’s CEO publicly affirmed Lao Pu’s market value at the earnings call.
By 2025, Lao Pu’s mainland revenue has surpassed Hermès to rank second, with store efficiency topping global luxury brands.
This is not a gold business; this is an identity business.
The bears are telling another story.
Goldman Sachs says: Q2 results missed expectations, with revenue and profit below estimates.
CICC says: High-end positioning limits pricing flexibility; during gold price declines, consumers prefer heavier products, slowing sales growth in the next quarter.
Macquarie is most direct: maintaining "underperform" rating, cutting target price to 275 HKD.
What do the bears see?
They see 16 billion HKD of inventory sitting in warehouses.
Lao Pu’s products have fixed prices, with premiums generally about 3 times the raw gold price. When gold prices rise, this is brand premium. When gold prices fall, this becomes inventory impairment risk.
Revenue in the first half was 19.8 billion to 20.5 billion HKD, up 60% to 66% year-on-year. Sounds good, right?
But Q2 revenue alone was only 2.3 billion to 3.95 billion HKD—down more than 80% quarter-on-quarter.
Q1 sales were 16.5 billion to 17.5 billion HKD, Q2 was a direct ankle cut.
The bears say: The luxury story can’t continue in the face of weak consumption.
My view?
Both sides are right, but on different time horizons.
Long term, China needs a domestic luxury brand. Lao Pu has this DNA—traditional craftsmanship, top mall locations, 82.4% penetration among high-net-worth customers overlapping with the five major international luxury brands. LVMH’s boss personally visiting the store is no coincidence.
Short term, triple pressure: 16 billion HKD inventory, gold price down over 20% from January highs, weak consumption.
Q2 results fell off a cliff quarter-on-quarter—not a "slowdown," but free fall.
More painful is: Lao Pu sells "gold + craftsmanship + brand," but recyclers only recognize "gold." The necklace you paid 3 times premium for, when recycled, is only valued at market price minus 100 HKD.
Buying is luxury; selling is raw material.
This gap is Lao Pu’s core contradiction.
Lao Pu’s current P/E ratio has dropped from about 50 times to around 12 times—on par with traditional gold stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang.
The market is voting with its feet: no matter how good your story sounds, I’ll price you like a gold store first.
So the question is—if gold prices really rise back to 4900 USD (Goldman Sachs’ year-end target), will Lao Pu rise with it, or continue to fall and not follow the rise?
Year-to-date, gold has risen 1.3%, Lao Pu has fallen 46%.
It has indeed broken the fate of moving with gold prices—just in the opposite direction.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT $SNDK Seize every swing!!!
Everyone says this drop was caused by Changxin going online, but Uncle Wei doesn't think so! Although it has an impact, it's not significant!
So on the 7th, he tends to believe that this drop was caused by the combined effect of Changxin's listing stimulating market sentiment, high-level profit-taking, and the overall revaluation of the AI storage sector.
However, this drop was also expected; it's not just Changxin alone that can determine SanDisk's trend. Uncle Wei mentioned this earlier; if you don't know, you can check previous posts.
If you still hold short positions on SanDisk now, don't rush to cut losses, and don't blindly add positions!
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ $SPCX BTC's market in the past two months has been like a stagnant pool, fluctuating narrowly between 60,000 and 65,000. Many friends are still debating whether it counts as cheap chips now. I'll first share my judgment: I still stick to the view from two months ago: the bottom has already formed, and we are currently in the process of building the base.
Why was I so confident two months ago? Because let's not forget, where did the core driving force of the last bull market come from? It was the ETF. Looking at the changes in the total BTC ETF holdings in the chart, you can see that two months ago it had already bottomed and started to rise. The current holdings are already comparable to the levels at the peak of the 2025 bull market. Despite BTC's deep correction for such a long time, the ETF did not experience panic-driven stampede redemptions; instead, it stabilized the situation. This indicates that the funds entering through the ETF channel have an investment cycle and logic more inclined towards long-term asset allocation, which aligns well with the "chip accumulation" characteristic in Wyckoff theory. The chips are transferring from weak hands to firm "strong hands".
The firm holding by ETFs has a significant impact on BTC's cycle: currently, the bitcoins held by ETFs account for 6% to 6.5% of the circulating supply, and they tend to hold long-term. Keeping a close eye on their holding behavior is very valuable for judging the direction of the major cycle. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
$XIAOMI Xiaomi is about to release its Q2 earnings report tomorrow, and what I most want to see now is the profit of Xiaomi Auto in Q2.
Why not look at Xiaomi phones? Because phones are still Xiaomi's core business, and the short-term pressure is already very clear. In Q1, Xiaomi phone revenue dropped 12.5% year-over-year, shipments fell 19.2%, and at the same time, price increases in components like storage pushed the phone gross margin down from 12.4% to 10.1%. So for this earnings report, as long as the phone segment "doesn't continue to worsen," I think it can be considered as meeting expectations.
What could truly change market expectations is when Xiaomi Auto shifts from a money-burning business to a profit source. Last quarter, innovative businesses like smart cars still had an operating loss of about ¥3.1 billion, but auto revenue already reached about ¥19 billion. If Q2 auto revenue continues to grow, while single-car gross margin improves and losses narrow significantly, that would be far more meaningful than selling a few million more phones.
Because the truly imaginative part of Xiaomi has never been just selling phones or cars separately, but gradually connecting phones + cars + AIoT + AI into one ecosystem.
I think the market might reconsider a question—should Xiaomi be valued as a phone company, or as a tech company with a "people-car-home full ecosystem"?
This might be more important than whether Q2 single-quarter profits beat expectations or not $XIAOMI fell quickly from 3.40 to 3.25 in pre-market trading, with short-term funds showing risk-averse behavior ahead of earnings release. High upstream memory chip costs are squeezing hardware gross margins, and market risk appetite is shifting toward profit realization ability. If automotive business gross margin improves beyond expectations and the price rebounds to 3.35, sentiment is likely to recover; conversely, if earnings pressure causes a drop below 3.24, selling pressure on positions may intensify further. Going forward, focus will be on the earnings report's automotive profit inflection point and the actual figures for mobile phone gross margin.
#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨Altcoin market enters a "rotation acceleration period," and what’s truly worth watching isn’t the top gainers list
Today, these two charts actually release a signal more important than "how much a certain coin has risen": capital is shifting from a single mainstream coin rally toward high-elasticity altcoins, AI, DePIN, RWA, and US stock-mapped assets.
From the charts, $GPS weekly gains have exceeded 50%, with $PIEVERSE, $OFC, $H, $ALLO, $EDEN, and others strengthening simultaneously. The key point here is: not all price increases belong to the same market trend. Some are driven by active capital attacks, while others are just price elasticity caused by low circulating supply. If you only look at green gains, it’s easy to buy at the hottest emotional point.
I pay more attention to three indicators: whether trading volume expands synchronously, whether the price can consolidate after rising, and whether volume shrinks on a pullback after a breakout. These three conditions are much more important than single-day gains.
$GPS is one of the strongest targets worth studying today. A weekly gain over 50% indicates that short-term capital attention has clearly increased, but the first risk after continuous rallies is profit-taking. The truly good entry point is not chasing the first big green candle but waiting for its first pullback. If trading volume shrinks significantly and the previous breakout area forms support, it means capital is not rushing to exit.
The logic behind $H leans more toward "identity verification + AI/Web3 infrastructure." The project itself has a clear narrative, but the biggest variable now is token supply. On August 25, $H will have a large token unlock, expected to release about 266 million tokens, roughly 2.7% of total supply and about 8.1% of current market cap. So even if the price is strong, the unlock pressure must be factored into the trading plan.
$ALLO belongs to the AI oracle/AI infrastructure sector, with good thematic elasticity but also supply pressure. There was an unlock round in August, and a larger unlock node is coming in November, so it’s better to observe "capital absorption after pullbacks" rather than simply chasing gains.
Other coins worth adding to the watchlist are $ACU, $ALLO, $EDEN, $BICO, and $ONT. Among them, $ACU belongs to the DePIN/decentralized computing sector; its tokens are directly used for network fees, computing payments, staking, and governance, with a relatively clear fundamental narrative. However, there is also significant unlock pressure around August 20, so "strong trend + unlock" must be considered simultaneously.
I now actually do not recommend using "top gains" as a buying reason. What’s truly worth positioning for are coins with real narratives, capital inflows, just completed structural breakouts, but have not yet experienced continuous explosive rallies.
Next, focus on this signal: $BTC remains stable → $ETH does not break support → altcoin trading volume continues to increase → capital spreads from the first tier to the second tier.#Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week, increasing dollar reserves
Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week but did not buy a single BTC. The money went to three places—paying dividends, repurchasing preferred stock, and hoarding cash. The coin accumulation flywheel has stopped; now it's a "survival first" mode.
What exactly happened?
From August 10 to 16, Strategy sold 3.459 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, net raising $333.7 million. During the same period, no Bitcoin was bought or sold, with holdings remaining steady at 840,447 BTC.
Where did the money go?
① $52.4 million paid in STRC preferred stock dividends; ② $132.2 million repurchased STRC preferred stock; ③ $149.1 million added to dollar reserves, bringing total reserves to $4.8 billion.
This marks several consecutive weeks of "only selling, no buying." Over the past five weeks, approximately $2.1 billion of common stock was sold, along with $213.3 million worth of Bitcoin. At the end of June, Saylor officially announced abandoning the "continuous accumulation" strategy in favor of a "capital management mode." The 840,447 BTC holding cost $75,385 each, with an unrealized loss of about $10 billion. The $4.8 billion cash reserve can sustain for a while, but the narrative of "never selling" has completely ended. Everything Strategy is doing now—selling stock, hoarding cash, repurchasing preferred stock—is sending the same message to the market: survival is more important than adding to positions. $BTC $ETH #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The US Treasury yield line has broken through again.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is the pricing anchor for global risk assets. When it rises, it means the risk-free return rate is increasing, and the appeal of risk assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin diminishes. For the crypto space, this is a macro-level headwind.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways for almost three weeks, which is closely related to this situation. Without a drop in long-term interest rates, it's difficult for risk assets to undergo a systemic revaluation. The US Treasury yield anchor here at least suppresses the upside potential of risk assets.
Here’s my take.
The fundamental reason for this round of rising long-term interest rates is not runaway inflation expectations but excessive debt supply and insufficient buyers. When the world's largest US Treasury holder is reducing holdings, it's no surprise yields rise. But the higher the yield, the higher the US government's own debt servicing costs, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Whether this cycle can continue in the long term is questionable, but in the short term, it is indeed suppressing risk assets.
What do you all think?
$BTC $SNDK $XIAOMI $FIL 0.67 is just empty profit, brothers.
Let's kill this thing to zero.
Dreaming of a rise? Everyone is watching the halving in October.
The project teams have all run away, yet you still expect a rise?
Most likely it will drop to 0.5 in October.
In two months, you'll come back and thank me.
The October halving is not about mining rewards being halved.
Now the mining payback period has stretched to over ten years, and machines become obsolete in three to four years. Theoretically, you can't break even. Would miners still mine? They would have already taken their hard drives to do AI computing power.
Right now, the project teams are just holding on until October to run away directly, because they pay over 200,000 coins in salaries daily. By October, when no salaries are paid, who will care about this trash coin? It will slowly decline to death.
Funds are now flowing into US stock tokens; the trend is very clear. The project teams won't be stupid enough to pump the price; there's simply no hype to speculate on.From the collapse of the old gold shop, see the "narrative premium" trap in the crypto world
The story of the old gold shop is all too familiar in the crypto world.
An asset, relying on cultural narrative, brand tone, and scarcity, pushed its price to three times its underlying value.
Then the market turned, and the 3x premium instantly evaporated.
In one year, market value evaporated by HKD 130 billion—more than Chow Tai Fook's latest market cap.
From a historical high of HKD 1108, it fell to HKD 282.
This story is exactly the same as the altcoins in your hands.
One-to-one correspondence, see if it looks familiar:
Old shop's "traditional craftsmanship, Chinese aesthetics, imperial heritage" → Crypto project's "technical narrative, community culture, top in the sector."
The old shop uses craft terms like filigree, engraving, and blue firing to package itself as the "Hermès of the East." The project uses tech terms like ZK, modularity, AI Agent to package itself as the "next Ethereum."
Old shop's "SKP + Hermès neighbor" → Project's "top institutional endorsement + leading exchange."
Old shop stores only enter SKP, Taikoo Hui, deliberately opening opposite Hermès. Projects only list on top-tier exchanges, with financing from top VCs. Location determines status; which exchange you list on determines your level.
Old shop's "fixed price" model → Project's "consensus pricing."
The old shop completely abandons "gold price + labor cost," directly setting a high price detached from weight. The project completely abandons "PE valuation," directly setting a market cap detached from revenue. Neither looks at fundamentals, only at how big the story is.
Old shop buyback only counts gold price → Project liquidity dries up, only on-chain data/actual users count.
Consumers who paid 3x premium for a necklace get buyback only at market gold price minus 100 HKD/gram. You who bought tokens at 100x PE get liquidity dried up, buyback only based on protocol revenue—if there is any revenue left.
Bought at 3x premium, cashed out only at underlying asset value.
The gap here is the phrase "thought I bought luxury goods, but ended up with huge losses."
The old shop's crash tells us one thing:
When the market switches from "storytelling mode" to "accounting mode," all premiums will be eliminated.
In 2025, the old shop's annual revenue was 27.3 billion HKD, net profit 4.87 billion HKD. In Q1 2026, it earned 70% of last year's full-year profit in just one quarter.
Performance is so good, yet stock price still crashes.
Why? Because Q2 performance plunged over 80% quarter-on-quarter. International gold price fell from 5600 USD/oz to below 4000 USD.
The old shop hoarded 16 billion HKD worth of gold inventory at high prices, with no hedging.
When gold price fell, all paper profits turned into devalued gold in the warehouse.
The market no longer believes "traditional craftsmanship" can resist gold price fluctuations. The premium is money lent by the market; when the market turns, it takes back principal and interest.
What about the crypto market?
The same.
In 2026, the industry has switched from "narrative-driven" to "fundamentals-driven." The era of pure narrative altcoins is over.
Those projects propped up by stories—no revenue, no users, no products—are being wiped out in batches.
CryptoQuant CEO bluntly says: narrative altcoins are coming to an end.
The days when a hot concept could support an astonishing valuation are over. Industry valuation logic is returning to real revenue.
The altcoins in your hands, are they "old gold shop"—with craftsmanship, brand, story—
or just a piece of "raw gold" waiting to be weighed?
The old shop taught all investors a lesson with HKD 130 billion market cap evaporation:
Premium is money lent by the market, sooner or later it must be repaid.
When gold price rises, the old shop is the "Hermès of gold." When gold price falls, it is a gold store hoarding 16 billion HKD of devalued gold.
In a bull market, you are the "next Ethereum." In a bear market, you are just a string of code with no liquidity.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 全球金融市场最关键的“锚”，刚刚触及了一个惊人的数字。 就在几小时前，美国30年期国债收益率突破5.31%，创下2007年6月以来的最高水平。10年期美债收益率也同步升至4.724%。 这不是一个普通的市场波动。30年期美债收益率是全球最核心的资产定价基准之一——它影响着全球数万亿美元的抵押贷款、企业债券和长期投资项目的定价逻辑。当它剧烈变动时，全球风险资产的估值体系都需要重新校准。 发生了什么？ 核心导火索是美伊之间为期60天的和平协议备忘录于周一正式到期。伊朗已明确排除了延长该协议的可能性，而特朗普政府则表示不寻求延长谅解备忘录。 地缘政治风险叠加美国财政赤字加速扩张（7月联邦赤字创历史同期最高），以及美联储内部分歧加剧，共同压低了债券价格、推高了收益率。 对加密市场意味着什么？ 短期来看，这是一个需要警惕的信号。 当10年期美债收益率快速攀升至4.7%以上时，它对所有风险资产都构成了估值压力。无风险利率的上升降低了高风险资产的相对吸引力，这意味着加密市场需要更高的风险溢价才能吸引资金。 但长期来看，更深层的逻辑在另一边。 30年期美债收益率创19年新高，也在提醒市场一件事：法定货