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U.S. stocks have sharply corrected, South Korean stocks opened high but fell, how are all the bulls doing? The current situation is very clear: U.S. stocks have already moved out of the right-side trading window. SanDisk's performance has fully explained everything. Next, focus on the extent of the pullback. Overall, a head and shoulders pattern cannot be ruled out. For now, we are seeing a short-term rebound. Everyone should be ready to sell high and buy low, and enjoy the profits! #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $SNDK $SKHY #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
Brothers, now even Xiaomi is being brought into the crypto space? Does Lei Jun know? 😂
I never expected that before we could only play with US stocks on-chain, now even Hong Kong stocks are starting to move on-chain. First there was Kimi, Pop Mart, and now it's Xiaomi's turn.
Today $XIAOMI opened with a drop of over 3%, then slowly pulled back in the afternoon, basically returning to the opening price now. The earnings report hasn't been fully digested yet, but the bulls and bears are already fighting.
This earnings report can't just be judged by how many cars were sold. What really matters is: can the car business continue to grow? Can the gross margin improve? Can losses be further narrowed?
Now Xiaomi's logic is no longer just about phones; what really determines the future valuation space, I think, is still the car business. Of course, the potential ultimately has to translate into profits.
After all, being able to sell cars doesn't mean making money. No matter how fast sales grow, if profits don't keep up, the capital market will still revalue Xiaomi. Xiaomi trades on the "people-car-home full ecosystem."
What do you think about Xiaomi's potential for further gains? Are you bullish, bearish, or planning to wait and see?
Let's discuss your views on Xiaomi's future trend in the comments. 8.18 Tuesday ETH Latest Analysis
ETH follows the overall market trend and strengthens, with a clear overall oscillating upward pattern. The Bollinger Bands maintain an upward shape, and the price continuously finds support at the middle Bollinger Band. After a short-term surge, there is a slight pullback, which is merely a bullish consolidation; the long-term upward trend remains unchanged.
Key support below is at 1901, and short-term resistance above is at 1918. A valid breakout will continue the upward trend.
Trading suggestion: Buy on a pullback and stabilization in the 1870-1880 range, target 1910, with further breakout aiming at 1920. #BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying pick up?
The market is indeed waiting for a catalyst: BTC trading volume shrinks, volatility narrows, implied volatility is low, and both buyers and sellers are clearly cautious; existing funds rotate between sectors, with ETH relatively strong. A breakout is likely to wait for variables such as the Hormuz situation, CPI data, and the Fed's September decision to materialize.
Current market status: low volume sideways, volatility extremely compressed
- Trading and volatility: BTC trading volume has clearly shrunk, price volatility range has narrowed to a multi-month low, the market is sideways with low volume around $63,000, with bulls and bears watching.
- Implied volatility: Options market implied volatility is low, indicating the market is not pricing in large future swings, more like "waiting for the wind."
Capital flow: existing funds rotate, ETH relatively favored
- ETF funds weak: Bitcoin spot ETF inflows are weak, stablecoin funds continue to flow out of the crypto market, with insufficient incremental funds.
- ETH relatively strong: ETH spot ETF has outperformed BTC since June, with July net inflow ratio by fund size about 9.4 times that of BTC; existing funds rotate between sectors, commonly pushing ETH first then waiting for BTC breakout.
Three potential catalysts: key variables to break the deadlock
- Hormuz situation: The US-Iran 60-day negotiation window expired on August 17 without substantive progress; Iran claims the US seriously violated the memorandum, talks failed to occur, and set a final deadline of several weeks for US compliance, preparing to shift policy from "defensive to full offensive," possibly escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz; the strait carries about 20%–30% of global seaborne crude oil, escalation could push oil prices up, affecting inflation expectations and global risk asset volatility.
- CPI data: US July CPI is a key inflation data point before the September rate meeting; June CPI year-on-year fell to 3.5%, month-on-month down 0.4%, cooling more than expected, which previously triggered a short squeeze and a brief Bitcoin rally; if July CPI continues to cool, it may further weaken Fed rate hike expectations, providing breathing room for the crypto market.
- Fed September decision: The market will closely watch the interest rate path and policy wording; if more dovish signals are released, liquidity expectations may improve, benefiting risk assets; if hawkish stance is maintained or rate hike options reserved, the market may remain suppressed.
Trading approach: don’t bet on low volatility, wait for confirmation before acting
- Existing longs: longs below $63,000 can continue to be held, with stop loss suggested to be moved up to $62,000 to control risk.
- Waiting for breakout: those without positions can wait for a volume breakout above $64,000 before entering, avoiding heavy bets on direction in a low volatility range.
- Rebound and stabilize before entry: also watch for entry opportunities after a pullback stabilizes in the $62,500–62,700 range.
Low volume sideways movement is unlikely to last long; breakouts are usually accompanied by volume expansion first; before variables materialize, managing position size and stop loss is more important than "guessing direction." $ETH $ETH: Whales have already accumulated 4.8%
The real big bulls are no longer satisfied with just calling trades.
They are preparing to directly take 5% of the $ETH supply.
BitMine recently disclosed that last week it continued to buy 9,926 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 5,815,164 ETH, about 4.8% of Ethereum's circulating supply; the company's crypto assets and cash combined total approximately $11.4 billion.
This is not ordinary buying on dips.
It is a publicly listed company attempting to turn ETH into an enterprise-level reserve asset.
Bulls see continuously locked chips and strengthened institutional confidence; bears see a different risk:
When massive chips are concentrated in a few corporate treasuries, any future financing, staking, or selling actions could amplify market volatility.
The market loves to praise steadfast holding but rarely discusses excessive chip concentration.
The fact is BitMine is still buying.
My view is that corporate hoarding does reduce short-term circulating supply but cannot be directly equated with a guaranteed rise in ETH.
The next step depends on two things:
Whether it can truly surpass the 5% target, and whether the staking yields from these ETH can cover the company's own financing costs.
Do you think this is institutions vying for pricing power, or concentrating risk into a larger position? The market isn’t boring — it’s revealing who actually has value. 👀
$LINK around $9 is starting to look less like a hype trade and more like a real asset. RWA + AI narratives have actual utility behind them, whales have been accumulating, and institutions seem comfortable treating it as a base position. Retail calling it “boring” might actually be the healthiest sign: no euphoria, no obvious bubble.
$ ticket 🎰
In this market, the boring asset might be the one worth watching.
#DailyOrbit The market is sending a clear warning. 📉
$BTC spot volume is near multi-year lows, while US spot ETFs flipped to $385M outflows after $865M of inflows the previous week.
Sellers may be exhausting, but buyers haven’t returned yet. That’s a classic divergence.
$ETH is showing a similar lack of strong demand. The key now is whether liquidity actually comes back—not whether prices briefly rebound.
Stay patient. Let capital flows confirm the recovery.
#30YYieldHits2007High #XiaomiEarningsWatch When the same macro news is released, BTC and ETH often react very differently in terms of timing. Not only because of market size, but also due to the nature of the capital flow of each asset type. 🧐
BTC is mainly driven by macro allocation funds. When data about US bonds or USD appears, large institutions and ETFs immediately adjust their portfolios, causing the price to react instantly. In contrast, ETH chThe Bloomberg Global Long-Term Bond Index yield is 4.2%, the highest since July 2008. What happened after July 2008? Lehman. But BTC is now at 64,138, still rising in the last 24 hours.
The market seems to be moving independently of history. Auctions are still selling, and repos haven't stopped. OECD countries have $61 trillion in debt, planning to borrow $18 trillion next year. After low-interest old debts mature, high yields will truly become interest payment pressure. In other words, it's not an explosion now, but a slow leak.
BTC hasn't reacted; I'm not sure if it thinks it's still too early or if it's completely desensitized to long-term bond yields.Bitcoin just broke above $64,000, rising over 1% intraday, and among the major coins, it’s almost the only one moving.
But I have to be honest—don’t rush to celebrate yet.
At present, this wave looks more like a "solo dance" by Bitcoin. ETH has fallen back below 1900, XRP has dropped back under $1, and BNB and DOGE are basically flat. The overall market still lacks unified upward momentum, and funds have not truly spread out.
From a technical perspective, I agree with FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich’s view: Bitcoin tried to break upward a few days ago but then fell back below the 50-day moving average and has failed to reclaim it for four consecutive days. On a longer timeframe, the price is still below the 200-week moving average. This means that in the medium and longer term, the selling pressure has not truly exited. As long as it remains stuck in the $62,000–$65,000 range, the pattern is unlikely to change substantially.
Another noteworthy signal is the movement of mining companies. Miner Weekly data shows that publicly listed Bitcoin miners have cut their hash rate by 21% over the past three quarters, with some resources shifting toward AI infrastructure. Mining revenue is weak, and combined with increased competition for electricity and capital from AI, this trend has actually been ongoing for some time. Correspondingly, Erik Voorhees’ Venice has annualized revenue exceeding $100 million, and VVV rose about 10% that day. The boundary between crypto and AI is becoming increasingly blurred.
Now, about this week’s token unlocks. August 20 is key:
• KAITO: approximately $9-11 million, about 7.6%-10.7% of circulating supply
• LayerZero (ZRO): approximately $19 million, about 4.4% of circulating supply
Relatively speaking, ZKsync (August 17) and Meteora (August 23) are much smaller in scale, and SOON and MBG are also this week but with less significant proportions.
Unlocks themselves don’t necessarily cause a dump; the key is how much new circulation is added, the market’s capacity to absorb it, and whether holders actually sell. Volatility usually rises before and after large unlocks, so it’s important to be prepared in advance.
My personal view: Bitcoin shows short-term resilience but hasn’t broken out of the range yet; don’t mistake this solo dance for a full bull market signal. What’s more worth watching is whether funds will truly flow into other major assets and the actual reaction after the two unlocks on August 20.
Observe first, then act. The Bloomberg Global Long-Term Bond Index yield is 4.2%, the highest since July 2008. What happened after July 2008? Lehman. But BTC is now at 64,138, still rising in the last 24 hours.
The market seems to be moving independently of history. Auctions are still selling, and repos haven't stopped. OECD countries have $61 trillion in debt, planning to borrow $18 trillion next year. After low-interest old debts mature, high yields will truly become interest payment pressure. In other words, it's not an explosion now, but a slow leak.
BTC hasn't reacted; I'm not sure if it thinks it's still too early or if it's completely desensitized to long-term bond yields.#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Spot gold continues its strong performance, rising more than 1% intraday on August 17 and breaking through $4420/oz. On the morning of August 18, it remains above $4430, with silver rising in tandem. New changes have appeared on the trading side. U.S. quantitative trading firm Susquehanna points out that gold options demand is shifting from downside protection to bullish options, and gold funds have recently recorded the strongest inflows since January. On the macro level, Michael Hartnett from Bank of America views factors such as U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion and rising interest expenses as a backdrop supporting gold allocation. When gold prices are high, capital shifts from defense to offense, signaling a change in sentiment. But the real test lies in whether buying can evolve from short-term chasing to a more stable safe-haven allocation. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields hitting multi-year highs and persistent inflation could both amplify volatility. In the short term, focus on the sustainability of options capital and macro data, with priority on position management.Dormant rises and exchanges fall are two sides of the same phenomenon. Opening the on-chain monitoring page, you will see a set of sharply contrasting indicators: dormant coin balances continue to hit record highs, while exchange Bitcoin balances have long hovered near multi-year lows. One goes up, the other falls, completely opposite directions. The simultaneous appearance of these two indicators is not a coincidence, but rather the simultaneous accounting of the same behavior across two ledgers. Since 2022, the Bitcoin balance on exchanges has dropped from about 3.2–3.4 million to around 2.7 million (at one point hitting a multi-year low of about 2.56 million), a decline of about 20%. In other words, about one out of every five Bitcoins originally sitting on exchanges is withdrawn. This process lasted for several years, during which the market experienced bull-bear cycles, halving cycles, and external shocks, while overall exchange balances continued to decline. Meanwhile, long-term dormant coins continued to grow during this period. The rise and fall may correspond to the main flow of the same coin: Bitcoins originally lying in the exchange's hot wallet are moved to their cold wallets or personal addresses, entering a dormant or semi-dormant state. Once a cold wallet is issued and transferred to the long-term holding address, the exchange balance is directly reduced by one, while the balance of dormant or long-term holding addresses is increased by one. With one entry and one out, the dormant ledger and the exchange are simultaneously rewritten. It is worth noting that the tokens withdrawn from this portion were not simply changed to a new address, but underwent a significant change in nature: from spot tokens that could be traded at any time to more#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk closed up over 8%, at one point exceeding 10% intraday, with Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and other storage stocks also rising. The core driver of the increase is the market's reassessment of the long-term plan released on Investor Day: revenue growth of mid-to-high double digits from FY2028 to FY2030, an adjusted gross margin of about 80%, and a plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. More importantly, the long-term agreements. SanDisk has signed new business model agreements with 8 customers, with contracts lasting up to 5 years and a total value of approximately $93.9 billion, covering about half of the bit shipments in FY2027 and about two-thirds in FY2028. These agreements include floor prices and financial guarantees, significantly enhancing revenue visibility and profit floors, attempting to break the strong cyclical nature of traditional storage. The lock-in of AI data center demand has led the market to value the company from a more stable cash flow perspective rather than simply looking at spot price fluctuations. The short-term gains have been considerable, and there is a risk of technical pullback, but whether the long-term agreements can truly deliver high profit margins and cash return targets will determine the sustainability of this rally. Key focus is on subsequent delivery data and actual gross margin realization. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to the 5.29%-5.32% range, marking a new high since 2007; the 10-year yield also climbed to about 4.72%. This change occurs against the backdrop of the expanding U.S. debt scale, increased pressure from long-term bond issuance, and inflation still above the Federal Reserve's target. The supply side is the direct driver. The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term issuance, combined with the AI financing wave boosting investment-grade bond volumes, intensifying competition for long-term funds. The demand side is also not optimistic; June data shows the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japanese government bonds also being sold off simultaneously, indicating that long-term rate pressure is not unique to the U.S. If long-term yields remain high, financing costs for governments, corporations, and households will rise, stock valuations will be under pressure, and assets like gold and BTC will be more susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. In the short term, the market will be more sensitive to pricing for "higher for longer," potentially amplifying volatility. The real focus is on subsequent auction results and whether inflation data can ease supply concerns. Position management is a priority. #财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
Xiaomi's Q2 earnings will be unveiled tonight. Market expectations are generally weak: revenue is expected to decline about 5% year-over-year, and net profit will sharply drop, mainly dragged down by rising storage chip prices and pressure on phone shipments. What truly matters is not a single figure, but the fulfillment level of the three business lines. High-end smartphones remain the foundation. Xiaomi continues to cut low-margin models and raise ASP, with a clear strategic direction, but whether gross margin can hold amid rising storage costs and intensified competition is key. If high-end series sales remain stable, it can prove the brand premium is effective. The automotive business is expected to be the second growth curve. Delivery volume remains resilient, but weak domestic demand and subsidy reductions are still testing it. Whether it can truly shift from the "investment period" to stable contribution depends on subsequent model volume growth and gross margin improvement. AIoT and the "full ecosystem of people, cars, and homes" is a longer-term story. Device connections and user stickiness are growing, and AI investment is increasing, but short-term profit contribution is limited; it is more about ecosystem synergy and future potential. The short-term earnings report will likely be under pressure, and stock price volatility is inevitable. What truly determines the mid-term direction is whether high-end phones can continue to deliver, when the automotive business will form a stable second curve, and the progress of the full ecosystem closed-loop implementation. Beyond the numbers, management's guidance for the second half of the year will be more important. The core of GRAM recently is not just the price fluctuations, but whether the Telegram ecosystem can continue to drive traffic onto the chain. Since the TON system rebranded the token to GRAM, the market's recognition of it has clearly increased. Additionally, catalysts like the promotion of the Telegram wallet and the launch of exchange derivatives have kept the hype from completely fading. However, this coin also has distinct characteristics: it relies on ecosystem imagination during price surges, but is also easily affected by external events during pullbacks. For example, recent fluctuations in Telegram app distribution made it very sensitive. Overall, GRAM remains a typical platform traffic coin; the narrative is intact, but the rhythm tends to be emotional. $GRAM Halving and dormancy create a double tightening. Many people think that after the Bitcoin halving, the growth of dormant coins will slow down due to fewer new entry chips. But on-chain data shows the opposite: after the halving, dormant coins actually accumulate more and more, with a relatively tighter pace than before the halving. This is the result of a two-way interaction between supply and stock. The halving mechanism has been built into genes that become increasingly scarce as time goes on, and the Sleeping Coin serves as a mirror amplifier of these genes. The pace of new output is slowing down. After the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's daily new output was halved from about 900 to 450, a full halving. This means the excess chips in the market are visibly decreasing, and the supply ceiling is being further pushed down. Before this, the market had to digest about 900 newly mined coins daily, and miners, exchanges, and secondary buyers had to find an exit for this increment; After the halving, this pressure was directly halved, and the overall market burden was reduced. But the problem is, the growth rate of sleeping coins hasn't slowed down in tandem. The number of new monthly entries entering long-term dormenal (especially those untouched for over 10 years) has remained in the range of about 10,000 to 20,000 coins. Even if the total amount of newly mined coins decreases after the halving, the number of coins added to dormant addresses does not decline proportionally. Originally, about 900 new coins entered the market daily, some of which would enter dormant addresses; Currently, only about 450 new coins remain per day, but the net increase in dormant coins remains basically stableETC has been the same familiar story these past two days: there's some activity, but not enough excitement. News like new trading channel expansions and network upgrades are theoretically positive, but the market's response has been rather lukewarm, indicating that funds currently view ETC more as a trading asset rather than a long-term growth prospect. Its strengths lie in high recognition and the legacy POW label still intact; when the market rotates to old coins, ETC often comes to mind. However, its weaknesses are also clear, with insufficient ecosystem expansion and a lack of fresh narratives. My view is that ETC is currently better suited as a rotation watch target; for it to achieve sustained momentum, stronger sector resonance is needed. $ETCPOL has been more resilient recently than many people think. The migration from MATIC to POL continues to advance, combined with new developments in network upgrades, payments, and infrastructure, indicating that Polygon is not idle but is quietly strengthening its underlying layers. The problem is that the market is now clearly more selective in valuing older L2s; even if on-chain data improves and tokens are burned, capital won't easily pay a high premium. Therefore, this move by POL looks more like a corrective trend rather than an emotional breakout. If the payment narrative and on-chain activity continue to rise, it will be easier for it to be revalued. $POL ATOM has been quite interesting recently, fitting the pattern of "finding strength amid bearish news." On one hand, Cosmostation is shutting down its wallet service, which definitely disrupts the ecosystem sentiment; but on the other hand, ATOM has previously made technical breakthroughs, indicating that capital hasn't completely abandoned this old track. The biggest issue with Cosmos has never been a lack of technology, but rather that its value capture is often questioned by the market, so every rebound tends to face selling pressure. Looking at it now, ATOM seems more like it's in a divergence game during a weakening correction. If the cross-chain narrative heats up again later, it will attract returning capital; but without new catalysts, the pace might still be rather grinding. $ATOM Today is the contract upgrade day for $OKB.
On the afternoon of August 18, the OKB smart contract upgrade was officially implemented, permanently removing the minting and manual burning functions.
The total supply of 21 million is coded in and cannot be changed by anyone.
This is inherently very good news, but the price did not rise; instead, it fell by 2.6% in 24 hours, dropping from 107 to around 104.
Why?
Because the positive news had already been priced in. On August 13, when $OKB announced the one-time burning of 65.25 million OKB and the total supply locked at 21 million, the price jumped from $47 directly to $142, a 200% increase in a single week.
That 200% surge was essentially pricing in today's contract upgrade in advance.
By the time the good news actually landed, those who wanted to enter had already done so; the rest were just spectators and chasing the high. This is buying on the news ahead of time, and once the news is released, the good news turns into bad news! Because some people will sell to take profits!
From a technical perspective: short-term support is at 100-102, strong support at 95-98, resistance at 108-110. Only by holding above 110 can a new upward phase open.
Conclusion: OKB will fluctuate between 95-115 in the short term; after those chasing the high are cut, it will choose a new direction. But if it falls below 90, seriously reconsider. And be sure to control your position size!
#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 1、【合约整体盘面数据】 全网合约持仓总量1193.5亿美元，整体基本持平。 24小时成交额来到1515.2亿美元，环比大幅上涨91.76%，市场交投活跃度快速升温。 24小时全网爆仓2.22亿美元，共计66885人遭遇爆仓，最大单笔爆仓为Hyperliquid‑BTC，金额1029.01万美元。 时间维度拆解：12小时爆仓1亿美元，其中多单6290.3万、空单3816.9万；24小时空单爆仓规模1.4亿大于多单8386.3万，短期多头被清洗，大周期空头杠杆集中出清。 2、【BTC多空与资金费率】 币安BTC永续人数多空比1.53，OKX为1.54，散户多头依旧占优，但比值同步出现明显回落。 两大交易所U本位资金费率维持正值，但费率幅度大幅下行，追涨做多的热情有所降温。 3、【清算地图流动性分布】 现价被夹在两段关键流动性区间之内。 上方64800‑65200区间堆积大量空单待清算，放量上攻会触发挤空行情； 下方63300‑63800存在密集多头强平盘，一旦有效下破，将引发连环多单清算，进一步扩大回调。 4、【晚间宏观事件提醒】 今晚20:15将公布美国ADP就业数据，数据结果直接扰动Last night, I shorted Sandisk above 1800, betting all my reputation on it. Looking back today, both the position and direction have been fully validated.
SanDisk rebounded from 993 to above 1800, with a short-term increase of over 80%. Last night, the price briefly broke through 1800, reaching a high of around 1835 during the session. I directly entered the market in batches above 1800, and my short positions are already in place.
Why dare to bet on reputation to short. Technically, the RSI on the 4-hour chart surged to 89, indicating severe overbought conditions. The MACD showed a high-level top divergence, and the price formed a double top near 1663, accompanied by a sharp contraction in trading volume after a massive surge. Above 1800 is an extreme emotional zone, and it has already reached the limit of a rebound.
Fundamentally, SanDisk's stock price surged from $40 to $2,354, with its market value expanding more than 50 times. In the second quarter, two-thirds of its revenue growth was driven by price increases, while its consumer business continued to shrink. SK Hynix's new NAND production capacity is on the way, and the signals indicating the peak of the cycle are already very clear.
In terms of capital flows, smart money is retreating. Renaissance Technologies has slashed its holdings in SanDisk by over 99%, while Appaloosa has completely liquidated approximately 280,000 shares. Institutions are exiting, and you're chasing them—decide for yourself who's right and who's wrong.
Shorting above 1800 is not chasing the short; it's waiting for the rebound to reach the right level before taking a sniper shot.$SNDK #AI Bet Setback, Wall Street Trading Giant Loses $15 Billion in a Month
It's over!!
Top Wall Street market maker Jane Street lost $15 billion in July, marking its first monthly loss in nearly a decade. AI-themed funds and tech stock positions were hit during the market adjustment.
The core issue isn't the $15 billion itself, but that the risk of crowded AI trades has spread from individual stocks to top market makers. When one of the largest market makers is losing money on AI trades, it indicates that the stakes in this sector have become dangerously crowded. Behind the $15 billion loss is the start of institutional deleveraging; Jane Street's net trading income for the year still exceeds $40 billion, so it won't go bankrupt, but it is shrinking its risk exposure.
The chain reaction will propagate along this path: market makers deleverage, reduce trading exposure, cut liquidity provision, market depth declines, and small orders can trigger larger volatility. AI-themed funds are being redeemed, positions sold off, and tech stocks face further pressure. Hedge funds are forced to liquidate, and other high-volatility assets simultaneously suffer from liquidity contraction.
The impact on BTC is indirect. Jane Street's losses won't directly change BTC's direction but will reduce overall market risk appetite and increase volatility. BTC, as the most liquidity-sensitive risk asset, will feel the pressure. The market is currently undergoing a deleveraging process; avoid heavy directional bets during this phase. Sentiment transmission is faster than fundamental changes, so wait until institutional positions adjust before taking action.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
So what’s next for $BTC $ETH 🔥🔥
The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a multi-year high, triggering a global asset valuation reset; BTC bears the pressure while ETH shows amplified elasticity.
Three scenario analyses, broken down:
1. Scenario One: Yields continue to rise (bearish)
Funds keep withdrawing from risk assets, BTC’s lower range under pressure, ETH declines more than BTC; the market mainly experiences pressured oscillation and repeated support tests, making a large-scale rebound difficult.
2. Scenario Two: Yields spike then fall back (bullish)
Bond market selling pressure eases, risk-free rates decline, risk asset valuations recover, BTC opens up rebound space, ETH elasticity releases, and on-chain sectors warm up simultaneously.
3. Scenario Three: Yields oscillate at high levels (neutral)
Yields stay high without further surge or rapid decline. BTC and ETH maintain large-range oscillation; the market is more driven by ETF funds, inflation data, and news.
🔍 Key signals to watch next:
1. The 30-year US Treasury is the big picture; focus on whether it continues to hold the new high or spikes then falls back.
2. Daily fund flows of BTC-ETF; sustained large outflows indicate institutions are seeking safety.
3. ETH/BTC ratio: a continuous decline indicates weak overall market risk appetite, making sustained altcoin rallies difficult.
4. Watch US Treasury auction results; a cold auction could further push long-term yields higher, amplifying crypto market volatility.
(Personal analysis only, not investment advice)
Steady progress to all, wishing you great wealth and ever better fortunes 08/18/2026 — Most notable new topic A new development with potentially longer-term impact than a short-term BTC pump has just emerged in the U.S.: The U.S. Department of the Treasury has officially released a draft regulation to implement the GENIUS Act concerning payment stablecoins and opened a public comment period. (U.S. Department of the Treasury) This is an important step because stablecoins are gradually becoming a bridge between the traditional financial system and crypto. And this time, the story is not just about USDT or USDC. It involves: #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Spot gold surged above $4430/oz (intraday high 4435+), COMEX futures gold simultaneously touched 4493, silver rose above 66, and oil, gold, and silver all rallied together. More importantly, on the options side—GLD November 460 call large orders were aggressively bought, one-month implied volatility remains near lows, and the bullish skew has reversed toward calls for the first time since summer. Gold funds recorded the strongest inflow since January.
The drivers are not a single factor but three forces combined:
• July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly -23,000, moderate CPI, weak retail sales, September rate hike probability dropped to 33%, and falling real rates directly providing support;
• Trump’s intervention in the Fed + “Big and Beautiful” bill + US debt surpassing 40 trillion, a resurgence of dollar credit discount trading, and central banks buying gold to support base positions;
• Middle East + uncertainty over Hormuz Strait navigation remains unresolved, shorts forced to cover above 4400.
How to interpret this for the crypto space:
Gold is being repriced as a "defensive core"; BTC is a short-term bystander rather than a beneficiary—true safe-haven funds go to gold first, not on-chain. However, tokenized gold like XAUT/PAXG is the most certain correlated asset to rise. For BTC to reattach to the "digital gold" narrative, gold needs to stabilize above 4500 and the Fed minutes (8/19) need to be dovish before that can happen. The short-term resistance zone is 4430-4450 with dense trading; chasing longs has low cost-effectiveness, and only if the 4380-4400 support holds can continuation be discussed.#MiningOneLosesOne: Miners Selling Coins Is the Real Reason Behind BTC Trading Shrinkage
@Meta8Mate posted data early on 8/18 that revealed the truth: Listed mining companies sold 28,000 BTC this year, worth about $17.8 billion; the industry average mining cost is $74,300, while the coin price is just over $63,000. Mining one coin results in a loss, so miners selling coins is not panic but a cost-structure-driven forced sale.
@lookonchain pulled Riot Platforms' data on 8/18: In the first half of 2026, they sold a total of 9,665 BTC, valued at $732 million, with an average selling price of $75,785. @RoundtableSpace added: Riot has already sold over $730 million worth of BTC this year.
What does the $75,785 average selling price mean? Riot is not cutting losses at the bottom but selling above cost. However, the current coin price is just over $64,000, and Riot’s selling price is higher than the current price, indicating they sold during a rebound, not at the current price level. The real issue is: if the coin price continues to hover between $60,000 and $65,000, mining companies with a $74,300 mining cost will continue to face the "mining one coin loses one coin" pressure. Selling coins is not a choice but a necessity.
Riot sold 4,300 BTC in the second quarter alone, reducing inventory from 15,680 to 11,380. So who is selling precious BTC? It turns out miners are also dumping.
@whale_alert recorded a large transfer at 03:20 on 8/18: 2,398 BTC (about $154 million) moved from an unknown wallet to OKEx. Exchange inflows are a precursor to selling pressure. This transfer may not be from miners, but combined with Riot’s near 10,000 BTC sales data, it shows miners sending mined coins directly to exchanges has become industry norm.
@Alvin0617 said something worth noting during a livestream: Looking at xhunt, hardly anyone is talking about Crypto anymore, but this might mean the worst market conditions have likely passed. He gave a specific observation: BTC price might test the $60-62K range, but attention can start returning to the crypto space.
ETH also showed two structural signals on 8/18. The Ethereum Foundation launched the Platåberget testnet in preparation for the Glamsterdam upgrade on August 20, with the upgrade schedule proceeding as planned. The Moscow Exchange plans to launch BTC and ETH perpetual futures next month, expanding to 10 crypto assets. BTC and ETH are chosen as the first perpetual contracts, showing traditional exchanges regard these two chains as crypto asset benchmarks.
$BTC perpetual futures reported $64,186.9 at 06:00 on 8/18, up 1.17% in 24h; funding rate turned positive at +0.0038%, open interest about $2.08 billion. Funding rate shifted from -0.0003% yesterday to positive, indicating short covering is nearing completion and bulls are starting to enter. But open interest hasn’t changed much, so bulls haven’t significantly added positions yet.
$ETH perpetual futures reported $1,894.44, down 0.22% in 24h; funding rate +0.0039%, open interest about $1.32 billion. ETH slightly dipped in 24h, contrasting BTC’s 1.17% rise. ETH’s gains from yesterday were partially given back today, but funding remains positive with no signs of panic.
Trading shrinkage is not just due to weakening ETF buying but also continuous selling pressure from miners on the supply side. Mining cost at $74,300 vs coin price at $64,000 — unless this gap narrows, miners won’t stop selling.
Whether ETF buying recovers depends on institutional reallocation cycles. But miner selling is a tougher constraint — it doesn’t depend on market sentiment but on electricity costs and mining difficulty. If BTC price doesn’t return above $75,000, miner selling pressure will persist. This is the overlooked supply-side truth behind the "BTC trading shrinkage" narrative.
ETH faces no miner selling pressure; the staking exit queue remains at zero. The supply-side pressures of the two chains differ: BTC’s comes from miner cost structure, ETH doesn’t have this issue.
Three routine questions:
Mining cost $74,300 vs coin price $64,000, at what BTC price do you bet miner selling pressure will ease?
Riot sold nearly 10,000 BTC in half a year at an average price of $75,785 — is this selling during a rebound or forced by cost structure?
ETH has no miner selling pressure and staking exit queue at zero — do you believe ETH’s supply side is healthier than BTC’s?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #miners #miningcost In Meta's Q2 2026 earnings report, free cash flow (FCF) plummeted 91% year-over-year (from $8.55 billion to $784 million), which looks very bad.
But investors misread the numbers. What really matters is that operating cash flow actually grew about 25% (from $25.56 billion to $31.86 billion).
Key reasons
Capital expenditures (Capex) nearly doubled: from $17.01 billion to $31.07 billion.
Revenue grew 28% (from $47.52 billion to $60.80 billion).
Operating profit declined mainly due to one-time expenses (about $2.4 billion in legal fees + $1.18 billion in severance). Excluding these costs, operating profit would have actually increased about 9.4%.
Advertising business remains strong
- Ad impressions +14%
- Average ad price +12%
- Combined driving about 27.7% growth
The new recommendation model improved Facebook ad click-through rate by 8.3% and conversion rate by 15.7%
So: price increases indicate better ad effectiveness, not just stuffing more ads.
And although FCF may remain near zero for the next few quarters, as long as operating cash flow and ad pricing continue to grow, free cash flow will naturally recover once capital expenditures slow down. $META $XMETA #XiaomiEarningsWatch Xiaomi’s earnings are one I’m genuinely curious about because this is no longer just a smartphone story 👀
Premium phones remain important, but the bigger question for me is whether EVs can become a durable second growth engine rather than simply an exciting new product line. Strong demand is encouraging, but scaling production, managing costs and maintaining margins will matter just as much 🚗
I’m also watching how Xiaomi connects smartphones, AIoT devices and vehicles through its Human × Car × Home ecosystem. The idea sounds powerful, but the real test is whether users actually experience enough value to stay within that ecosystem.
This report should show which part of the strategy is carrying the most momentum right now.
Which business gives Xiaomi the strongest long-term advantage: premium smartphones, EVs or the connected ecosystem?HYPE trades at $HYPE 59.135 (-0.56%), sitting below key moving averages (MA5: 59.260, MA10: $HYPE 59.276, MA20: 59.270). MACD shows short-term bearish pressure (-0.047).
Reclaiming resistance at 59.276 opens room toward 59.636. Losing support near 58.918 risks a drop toward the 24h low at 58.453.
#XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #OKX.ai Narrative Rotation Is Accelerating 🔄
Crypto liquidity isn’t disappearing—it’s moving between sectors.
While $BTC is down around 0.62% and $ETH has slipped 1.01%, the altcoin market is showing a clear divergence. Some sectors are attracting fresh bids while others are experiencing aggressive selling.
🚀 Strength is appearing in Web3, infrastructure and AI:
$AEON +9.15%
$BICO +7.29%
$ROBO +4.78%
$ONT +4.35%
Meanwhile, GameFi and storage-related tokens are facing heavier pressure:
$ETH BTC dormant supply hits a new all-time high!!!
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the amount of BTC that has been dormant without any transfers for over 10 years has reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for 17.7% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin, setting a new historical high. In the past 30 days, an additional 14,000 BTC have entered the ten-year dormant range.
On the positive side, a large amount of ancient coins are locked up long-term, directly reducing the floating supply available for trading in the market at any time. When new buying demand enters the market, the reduced floating supply amplifies price elasticity, strengthening Bitcoin's scarcity narrative from the ground up. This is also on-chain proof of long-term accumulation and faith by major whales, providing long-term bottom support for the market.
However, there is a key misconception here: rising dormant supply alone cannot directly drive price increases. Price rallies must be supported by external incremental capital inflows. The current contradiction is that while dormant coins keep hitting new highs, BTC spot ETFs have recently seen continuous net outflows of funds. External new buying demand is temporarily absent, so the current rebound is still a game of existing funds.
There is also a hidden risk: these dormant coins are not permanently locked. If one day a large number of ancient wallets suddenly activate and transfer coins, a large influx of coins into the market would instantly bring huge selling pressure. Rising dormant supply is a long-term bullish signal but should not be taken as a basis for immediate short-term bullishness. Short-term market trends still need to be judged by variables such as ETF funds and Federal Reserve policies.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $BTC is $64,134 today, up 0.55% in 24 hours.
It has surpassed 64,000 for the second time this week.
The range in the past 24 hours was 62,727 - 64,590, with volatility compressed within 3%.
Kuzi thinks the real story isn't the price, but the reversal in ETF metrics!
Last week, $BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of $1.1 billion, ending the continuous net outflow since the start of 2026.
BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for 80% of BTC ETF inflows; institutions have been replenishing positions.
But there's a divergence here: while ETF funds are flowing back, $BTC ETF trading volume last week dropped to the second lowest since October 2024. Money is coming in, but turnover hasn't picked up.
What does this mean? It means these institutions are buying for allocation, not trading. Long-term money is accumulating at lows, while short-term money is still watching.
On-chain whales haven't been idle either; the number of wallets holding 1000+ BTC hit a new high in 2026. Whales are hoarding, not selling.
Looking at the macro rhythm: US-Iran ceasefire on 8/14, Hormuz Strait navigation resumed, WTI oil price dropped from 82.4 to 80.25, geopolitical premium easing; July CPI at 3.4%, PPI cooling significantly, 85% chance of rate cut in September.
Cross-asset comparison is clearer: S&P 500 broke 7800 for the first time this week, gold is consolidating at a high of $4,375/oz, BTC just returned to 64,000.
The same inflation cooling script: US stocks hitting new highs, gold hitting new highs, BTC still trading in the 63,000-64,000 range.
The direction is right; what's missing is a trigger event.
There are three upcoming events that could ignite the market!
8/19 White House meeting, 8/22 Powell at Jackson Hole, 9/15 CLARITY Act cloture — three major events within three weeks.
Conclusion: 64,000 is neither a bottom nor a top, but a turnover zone. Support at 63,000-62,500 (if it breaks 62,000, watch 60,000), resistance at 64,500-65,500. Only a firm break above 65,500 counts as a real recovery. ETF inflows are a left-side signal, not a right-side confirmation. Positions remain unchanged; wait for a statement after 8/22. Avoid messing around with low volume over the weekend; watch the direction again on Monday night session.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 Last night I opened a short position on $SNDK at 1744, thinking I had hit the high point, but it surged straight to 1827 and got stuck. I knew it would spike at the open, but I rushed in without waiting for it to go above 1800 before shorting—being impatient got me punished.
Fortunately, 1827 didn’t hold, and the price fell back to around 1728, painfully turning a floating loss into a small profit. From confident entry to doubting everything, then breaking even and feeling good again, my mindset was a rollercoaster the whole time.
SNDK has broken a two-month downtrend, rising over 35% in five days, but the short-term surge was too steep, with crowded chips; the signal of a spike followed by a pullback is very clear.
Next, watch three levels: 1800-1830 is a resistance zone—only if it holds above this can we look at 1900-2000; 1680-1700 is the first support—breaking this cools the rally; 1550-1600 is strong support.
This short bet is on profit-taking after continuous rallies, not a bearish view on fundamentals. If it can’t reclaim 1800, there’s room for a pullback; if volume breaks above 1830, I’ll admit I was wrong and lock in profits first—I really can’t afford to lose more.
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Let's first look at the valuation controversy of Arbitrum ($ARB) today.
The current snapshot from CoinGecko (2026-08-18 14:04, Beijing time) shows $ARB priced at 0.0743 USD, down 1.0% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, Binance's ARBUSDT is also down about 1.459% in 24 hours, indicating that the dominant sentiment consensus is still weak rather than a distortion from a single exchange.
DefiLlama records Arbitrum chain TVL at 12.53B USD on 2026-08-09, which dropped to 12.44B USD by 2026-08-18 08:00, about -0.73%. On the other hand, ARB's FDV is about 7.43B USD, and circulating market cap is about 4.91B USD, with no synchronized recovery in the USD range. The controversy here is that when TVL declines, the token side does not necessarily have independent catalysts.
I won't directly conclude whether it is cheap or overvalued; at least two things need to be observed first: one is whether TVL regains momentum from new on-chain projects, and the other is whether USDT/ETH liquidity flows back into synthetic assets and gaming scenarios. #Layer2 #ARB #RiskManagement
Which signal do you think Arb needs to stabilize first to shift sentiment from "wait-and-see" back to "tradable"? #30YYieldHits2007High The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached approximately 5.29%–5.32%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield climbed toward 4.72%. Rising government debt, heavy long-term bond issuance and inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target are increasing the return investors demand to hold long-duration debt.
The pressure is not limited to the United States. Japanese government bonds have also sold off, while reports indicate that Japan, the United Kingdom and China reduced Treasury holdings in June. Heavy investment-grade issuance related to AI infrastructure adds further competition for long-term capital. My view is that persistent high yields represent a major risk for stocks, housing and corporate financing. Even without another Fed hike, expensive long-term borrowing can tighten financial conditions. Markets should watch Treasury auctions and foreign demand for evidence that yields are stabilizing.The Hong Kong stock at HKD 25.68 has already priced in the downward expectations for consumer electronics. The core issue in $XIAOMI's earnings report tonight lies in whether incremental automotive deliveries can reshape risk appetite and offset the pressure from mobile phones and R&D.
The stock price has retraced 57% from the high of HKD 60.15 to HKD 25.68, with perpetual contracts at 3.31, indicating the market has completed a dimensionality reduction pricing of the consumer electronics business.
The driving factors on the board are ranked as follows: the efficiency of the automotive business in boosting risk appetite, the defensive capability around the adjusted net profit threshold of 6 billion HKD, and the cash flow valuation discount caused by a 25% forecasted decline in mobile phone sales in 2026.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is that Q2 adjusted net profit stabilizes at 6 billion HKD and automotive deliveries bring unexpected incremental growth. This situation will attract capital inflows by improving risk appetite, pushing the market to test valuation recovery zones upward. This scenario requires monitoring the conversion efficiency of recurring revenue from automotive after-sales; a failure signal is an unexpected decline in mobile phone sales eroding overall profits.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is revenue falling short of 108.8 billion HKD and a year-over-year EPS decline exceeding 56%. Profit pressure will trigger heightened market risk aversion and institutional long position reductions, causing the stock price to test the 52-week low of HKD 21.4. This scenario requires monitoring the impact of rising component costs on traditional hardware gross margins; a failure signal is that high growth in automotive deliveries fully offsets the decline pressure in consumer electronics.
When after-hours derivative positions rapidly close and the stock price closes firmly above HKD 28, the short logic based on declining mobile phone sales becomes invalid.
In the next 24 hours, key observations include whether the adjusted net profit announced after hours deviates from the 6 billion HKD midpoint and changes in derivative positions around HKD 25.68.
#Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #SafePal订单泄露，隐私保护待完善 $BTC 30-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to surge, hitting the highest point since 2007. This round of long-term rate increases cannot be simply equated with the market betting on the Fed continuing to raise rates; the core conflict has shifted from short-term policy expectations to a repricing of long-term fiscal, supply-demand, and inflation expectations.
Currently, there is a clear market divergence: the market has lowered the probability of a rate hike in September, but long-term bond yields are rising against the trend. Essentially, this is due to a continuous increase in term premiums. The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit brings a massive supply of government bonds, overseas sovereign buyers are continuously reducing holdings, and combined with large-scale bond issuance by AI companies diverting funds, the long-term bond supply-demand imbalance is worsening. Investors demand higher yield compensation to be willing to hold long-duration bonds. Meanwhile, core inflation is still some distance from the 2% target, geopolitical tensions disturb oil prices, and the market finds it difficult to completely dispel concerns about recurring long-term inflation, further supporting long-term yields.
As the anchor for global asset pricing, rising long-term yields will continue to push up financing costs across society. High-valuation growth stocks and crypto assets are highly sensitive to interest rates, and valuations continue to face compression pressure from rising discount rates; the U.S. stock market rally heavily depends on earnings support from AI leaders. If rates remain high, the upside driven purely by earnings will remain limited. Many investors tend to overlook one point: the continuous rise in long-term bonds is equivalent to a passive tightening of financial conditions, with effects close to rate hikes, which will continue to suppress risk appetite. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Chapter 36: Daily Pre-Trading Checklist
[Pre-Trading Checklist]
Trading Instrument:
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□ 15M
□ 1H
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Current Trend:
□ Uptrend
□ Downtrend
□ Sideways
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EMA20:
□ Upward
□ Downward
□ Sideways
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Volume:
□ Increasing
□ Decreasing
□ Normal
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Trading Plan:
□ Long
□ Short
□ No Trade
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Take Profit:
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Estimated Maximum Loss:
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⸻BSC hype dogs, simply put, focus on the following two main points
1: Watch the official sources — CZ, the top influencer, Binance official Twitter
Scrutinize wording, dig for new terms, uncover new products; any official-related hot topic must be closely monitored.
But this approach is the hardest to play — it all depends on betting on replies, retweets, and whether it can get listed on alpha, contracts, or spot markets.
Also, these coins share a common flaw: the moment expectations are realized is the peak, and the price crashes faster than anyone else afterward, completely unsustainable.
2: Watch outside the crypto circle — social hot topics, viral events across the internet
Lobster, Niulai, Hakimi all exploded outside the crypto circle first, then spread into the crypto world.
The biggest advantage of these coins is their strong sustainability and resistance to price drops.
They share a common trait — when the phenomenon just emerges, whether you scroll through Weibo, Douyin, or Twitter, everyone has seen it.
For example, Lobster initially appeared as a new AI application method, with related content flooding the screen;
Similarly, Niulai hit the trending search on Weibo when its box office was just over 7,000.
At that time, although there was a meme with the same name on-chain, the quantity was very small, so grabbing it meant getting the first mover advantage.
Two paths, choose your own!
Hype dogs are basically betting — betting on expectations, fermentation, and running faster than competitors
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Most tokens in the AI sector rely on narratives to support their prices, but Venice is one of the few that speaks with real revenue.
On August 17, founder Erik Voorhees announced that Venice.ai's annualized revenue surpassed $100 million.
A month ago, this figure was still $70 million. After the news broke, VVV rose 8%-10% within 24 hours, with a noticeable increase in trading volume.
What Venice.ai does is straightforward: open-source AI services including text, image, and code generation, but the core selling point is privacy—no user data storage, no censorship. It runs on the Base chain, founded by Erik Voorhees (the OG behind ShapeShift).
There is a tokenomics design I find quite solid: platform revenue is directly used to buy back and burn VVV tokens, with over 40% of the supply already burned, and emissions continuously decreasing, aiming for net deflation.
Staking yields returns, unlocks Pro features, and allows minting DIEM (daily AI inference quota).
The price is currently around $12-13.
Monthly revenue jumped from $70 million to $100 million, which counts as solid data in AI tokens. This is not just hype; real users are paying for its services. The deflation mechanism directly ties revenue growth to token supply contraction.
Of course, crypto is volatile, and whether this growth can continue is another question. Personal observation, DYOR
$VVV Real-time analysis of ETH ETF buy and sell orders (August 18, 14:00)
As of the current pre-US market session, the US ETH spot ETF shows an intraday pattern of bulls and bears competing, with overall capital outflow much smaller than that of the BTC spot ETF. Institutional capital divergence is also significant. The total intraday on-exchange turnover reached $1.476 billion, with active turnover on-exchange, but no large-scale long-term buying has yet appeared.
By product, BlackRock ETHA is the main source of intraday buying, continuously absorbing small capital inflows; Grayscale ETHE and Fidelity FETH still have ongoing redemption selling pressure, with redemption pressure continuously released. Small buy orders can only partially hedge some redemptions and have not yet formed an overall net inflow trend.
A notable feature on the market is that ETF funds have not entered on a large scale overall, but ETH’s performance is temporarily stronger than BTC. On one hand, on-chain whales continue to withdraw tokens from exchanges to lock and accumulate chips, with off-exchange spot funds absorbing selling pressure; on the other hand, short-term contract leveraged funds actively position long orders, driving price rebounds. This round of rise still belongs to a stock capital game, not a trend led by incremental ETF funds.
ETF funds are also a core indicator for judging ETH’s trend. To start a new round of bullish market, ETH ETF needs continuous stable net inflows over multiple days, representing institutional long-term buying re-entering; if redemption outflows expand again, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable, especially with the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice $BTC $SNDK $ETH is $1,897 today, up 0.42% in 24 hours.
The highest reached 1,908, the lowest 1,871, with a market cap of $229.3 billion.
The 1900 level has been repeatedly tested today.
Last week, net inflows for ETH ETFs turned positive along with BTC, but the leader on the ETH side is Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust, not BlackRock's ETHA—this differs from BTC where IBIT dominates alone.
This indicates that institutional funds in ETH are more dispersed, without the "one entity holding 80%" support seen in BTC.
Looking at the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it is still bottoming at a low level with no signs of relative strength.
Market funds are still dominated by BTC, and altcoin rotation has not started.
Support is at 1,850-1,880; if broken, look to 1,800; resistance is at 1,920-1,950, and only a firm break above 1,950 counts as a breakout.
Conclusion: ETH has confirmed a stop in the decline, but reversal is still early. Hold your base position above 1,880, do not add or chase highs. What can really lift ETH is BTC first stabilizing above 65,000 and altcoin rotation starting; before that, ETH will just follow the ups and downs.
Do not move it if 1,850 holds; if broken, then reconsider.
#BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87% Great question. If everyone is waiting for the last dip, will there really be a last dip? If there is, how can we be sure it's only one dip and not an endless continuation of "last dip after last dip"?
Answering this from two perspectives:
1. Analyzing from the correlation between miner costs and BTC's historical price trends:
Historically, BTC bear markets almost always break through the average electricity cost of miners, roughly around 30%. This is why the total network hash rate drops during each bear market. The price decline only forces the entire network into an equipment upgrade phase after it breaks through the electricity costs of some low-efficiency miners...
This is a theory about BTC network iterating and updating itself from the underlying hardware...
Currently, BTC's price barely holds at a level that breaks less than 10% of electricity costs, whereas in past major crashes and bear markets, the electricity cost break was around 30%. In other words, if this theory still holds, BTC still has about 20% downside space to reach the absolute bottom.
A simple calculation places this price range between $50,000 and $55,000, which is why previous quotes mentioned that the probability of BTC falling below $50,000 is extremely low.
Simply put, most miners in the network are still making a little profit, but the process of eliminating outdated hash power is already underway...
It's not that the market is bad and miners are suffering; rather, BTC's supply system design inherently carries this cyclical nature. In other words, BTC's periodic crashes are mathematically inevitable, just like a forest must periodically experience wildfires to complete its cycle...
2. Analyzing from the current market situation and macro perspective:
A recent obvious phenomenon is that native crypto funds have started to be diverted, with a large amount of capital choosing to trade U.S. stocks instead of crypto. This has significantly suppressed BTC's volatility, turning it into a despised old asset...
This situation has happened before...
In Q4 2018, Q4 2022, and other periods with historically low volatility combined with bear market backgrounds, BTC chose to make a final dip downward, forming the so-called "golden pit"...
Even for a MEME coin, if no one trades or talks about it, and volume shrinks to a flat line, the probability of an upward move is far lower than a downward one...
Therefore, it's not that I stubbornly remain bearish after BTC has dropped 50% (on the contrary, I am extremely bullish), but the current data and market sentiment conditions do not support a sudden, dramatic bear-to-bull reversal...
After all, if there is no so-called "last dip" or "ultimate shakeout," then the large amount of chips or futures longs accumulated during the low-level consolidation cannot be released, which will become supply resistance in future rebounds or bull trends...
Nothing is absolute. I also hope BTC starts a bull run tomorrow, leaving all those waiting for lower prices behind, making them regret it...
But the odds may not be on our side...
So my ongoing strategy is to split the funds planned for bottom-fishing BTC into two parts: 50% continuously dollar-cost averaging at the current stage, and the other 50% reserved for a "last dip" or "shakeout."
This way, if there is no new low, I have successfully accumulated cheap chips at the cycle bottom; if there is, I can also buy more cheap chips at a 20% discount. Both paths are acceptable, especially since I won't regret it much in the future bull market, which is enough for me...
3. How to ensure there won't be a second or third "last dip" after the last dip?
The answer is simple: you can't ensure it...
When that time comes, the market will test not analysis or execution ability, but pure faith...
Looking back, from 2018's drop from 20,000 to 3,100, 2019's drop from 14,000 to 3,800, to 2022's drop from 69,000 to 16,000, which true bottoming market didn't test faith?
If BTC can't wash out all speculative funds from the market, it will be hard to enter a strong bull market in the future...
The duration and height of a bull market have little to do with those who bottom-fished; instead, it depends on how many people slap their thighs saying "if only back then..."This looks like a BTC-led repricing, not a broad crypto risk-on move. BTC is up 1.41% near $64,158, while ETH and SOL are essentially flat. That divergence suggests capital is concentrating in liquidity rather than expanding across the curve.
With the 30-year yield at a 2007 high and BTC volume drying up, I would treat the bounce as defensive strength, not confirmation of a durable breakout. The constructive signal would be participation broadening beyond BTC.
Just my read, not advice.#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.3%!!
Latest data shows that the US 30-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.321%, hitting a new high since 2007, while the 10-year yield is around 4.72%. This upward trend is not just a Federal Reserve issue; US fiscal pressure, oil price rebound, and long-term bond supply are all pushing up funding costs.
Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related debt financing has approached $500 billion since 2026. We have always said that AI capital expenditure benefits chips, storage, and data centers, but on the other hand, massive financing also increases bond supply and competes for global capital. So I believe that if long-term rates stay above 5% for a long time, the hardest hit will be high-valuation assets supported by forward growth.
The logic is simple: a risk-free yield above 5% means the market’s return requirements for stocks, BTC, and high-growth AI companies will all increase.
$BTC is the same.
I previously leaned toward BTC having one more downward move to find support, and now with long-term yields continuing to break through, this judgment is actually strengthened. Unless US Treasury yields clearly fall back and ETF funds continuously flow in again, I won’t rush to judge that risk assets have re-entered a major uptrend.
I remain bullish on AI in the long term, but the 5.3% Treasury yield is reminding the market: money is really expensive now.
Who can still rise next may depend on who can truly turn the AI story into cash flow. Real-time analysis of BTC ETF buy and sell orders (August 18, 14:00)
As of now today, the overall US BTC spot ETF has shifted from a slight net inflow in the morning session to a state of long-short contention, with clear capital divergence. The cumulative daily turnover reached $2.812 billion, with active on-exchange turnover, but long-term incremental buying remains weak.
By product, BlackRock IBIT has become the main buying force today, continuously absorbing funds in phases; Fidelity FBTC, Ark ARKB, and Grayscale BTC continue to experience redemption selling pressure, which is persistently released. Only a few small- and medium-sized ETFs maintain small inflows, and sporadic buying cannot fully offset the selling pressure caused by redemptions for now.
A significant divergence appears on the market: ETF funds have not formed large-scale continuous inflows, yet BTC prices continue to oscillate upward. The selling pressure is mainly absorbed by long-term on-chain whales and off-exchange spot funds. This rebound is still driven by existing on-exchange funds rather than a trend led by incremental ETF funds.
ETF funds remain the core indicator for judging the trend. To start a new round of bullish market, continuous stable net inflows of ETF funds over multiple days must be seen, representing institutional long-term buying re-entering the market; if redemptions and outflows expand again, the sustainability of this rebound will be questionable. Meanwhile, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes will become a key macro variable influencing institutional fund decisions.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $ETH Crypto raised $11.2 billion in six months: but two-thirds of the money went to just 3 places
On the surface, crypto financing was hot in the first half of 2026: 377 rounds of financing totaling $11.2 billion.
But what’s really worth looking at isn’t the total amount, but how concentrated the money is.
Payments and stablecoins took $3.7 billion, prediction markets $2 billion, exchanges and trading platforms $1.7 billion.
These three combined account for about $7.4 billion, roughly 66% of all financing.
In short:
Capital is still investing in crypto, but it’s getting lazier about casting a wide net, starting to focus only on tracks that "can generate revenue, comply with regulations, and connect with institutions."
What’s even more interesting is that traditional financial institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Apollo, HSBC, Citadel, Nasdaq, and others have already appeared in these financings.
So the next round of crypto opportunities may not necessarily be in "building a new chain."
Instead, it might be in the more boring but truly profitable areas:
stablecoin payments, prediction markets, trading infrastructure.
Crypto is gradually shifting from "who has the newest story" to "who controls the real financial pipelines."