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🔥 The CLARITY Act is entering a critical week, but what truly deserves attention is not just the bill itself.
On August 19, the White House will convene representatives including Trump, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, CFTC Chair Michael Selig, and institutions like Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Nasdaq, and CME to discuss coordination of digital asset regulation.
On August 20, the CFTC will hold its inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, covering topics such as Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets.
Meanwhile, although the CLARITY Act has advanced in the Senate, it failed to complete a key vote before the August recess, with the next phase expected in September.
Therefore, the real highlight this week is that the White House + SEC + CFTC + Congress are synchronously pushing to restructure the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework.
The core issue is no longer just "whether the bill will pass," but rather: who will regulate, what will be regulated, and how the SEC and CFTC will delineate their boundaries.
If the CLARITY Act continues to make progress in September, alongside synchronized SEC/CFTC rule advancements, U.S. Crypto may officially enter the regulatory framework implementation phase.
For institutions, what truly matters is not a sudden passage of a bill, but that rules begin to become predictable. This is the real prerequisite for long-term capital to truly enter the market While waiting for Xiaomi's earnings report, I reviewed the fundamentals of the past few quarters. Honestly, the market's expectations have shifted from simply "phones + IoT" to seeing how much noise their car manufacturing can make.
The old phone business doesn't hold much surprise; global shipment volumes are clear, and although there's been a push towards high-end, growth is basically incremental and slow due to the overall market and replacement cycles. IoT and major appliances are steady and reliable, with gross margins that are quite resilient, making them a quietly profitable cash cow. As for internet services, the gross margin is high, but growth has also peaked.
Personally, I'm most focused on the car business's gross margin and capacity fulfillment. The SU7 launch generated a lot of buzz, but capacity ramp-up and supply chain costs remain pain points closely watched by outsiders. If this earnings report shows car gross margins exceeding expectations or a significant narrowing of losses, then the story can continue. $XIAOMI
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ $OKB took a pretty sudden hit this morning. It dropped straight down from around 103 to just above 96. Although it has now pulled back to about 97.5, the whole process still looks quite alarming. I happen to hold 10 OKB in spot, and seeing that long bearish candle on the K-line, my first reaction was a bit stunned. Let's start with the data. The net capital flow on the weekly chart has been clearly negative for the past two weeks, especially this past week, with outflows much larger than previous weeks. And it's only been two days this week. This indicates that big money is indeed moving out, not just small retail traders playing around. Looking at the long and short borrowing volumes, the long borrowing volume has consistently outweighed the short borrowing volume, so leveraged long positions are still significant. Funds are moving out on the spot side, but leveraged longs are still holding on hard; this kind of mismatch can easily cause problems in the short term. This morning's sharp drop was very likely triggered by someone who couldn't tolerate this divergence and acted first. My current thinking is straightforward: holding 10 coins isn't much, so I won't move for now. If it can hold steady around 96, then a subsequent oscillation upward to recover wouldn't be a big problem. But if it breaks below 96 again with increased volume and fails to recover, then I'll consider selling half to reduce risk. The key now is to see if it can hold 96 in the next few hours. If it holds, I'll keep holding; if not, I'll decisively reduce. After such a flash crash, the biggest fear is continued negative sentiment, so I've set a clear observation point for myself rather than stubbornly holding on. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美The era of a broad crypto market rally is over; the next main theme is on-chain finance!
Recently, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley pointed out that it's now difficult to describe all projects simply as the "crypto industry."
Bitcoin, L1 infrastructure, asset tokenization, stablecoins, perpetual contracts, Meme, and lending markets each solve different problems and have different catalysts.
It's like you can't explain Meta, Uber, and Shopify just by calling them "internet companies."
The more mature the industry becomes, the more segmented the sectors get, and the less likely it is that a single narrative will drive the entire market up.
In the next 12 months, what deserves more attention is finance moving on-chain: capital, assets, trading, and credit gradually migrating on-chain, with stablecoins, RWA, derivatives, and lending protocols all having opportunities to meet real demand.
But moving business on-chain does not mean all tokens will appreciate.
User growth, protocol revenue, and token value capture are three different things.
The next market cycle will truly reward not the loudest projects, but those products that can turn on-chain transaction volume into sustainable revenue.
$BTC $ETH $META
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 US Treasury yields soar to a 19-year high! How will the Iran nuclear deadlock influence BTC and ETH?
The 60-day US-Iran peace agreement has expired, and the US refuses to extend it, causing oil prices to surge. Meanwhile, the 30-year US Treasury yield has jumped past 5.31%, reaching a new high since 2007, and the 10-year yield rose to 4.72%. There is a rare split within the Federal Reserve: the July meeting ended 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, with three hawkish members insisting on a 25 basis point hike. The market is holding its breath awaiting this week's meeting minutes to reveal internal divisions.
Impact on BTC and ETH:
BTC is currently around $64,100, ETH about $1,890, with the ETH/BTC ratio at a low level.
The long-term bond yields hitting a 19-year high means risk-free returns are very attractive, putting valuation pressure on risk assets like BTC. The Iran nuclear uncertainty pushes oil prices higher; if inflation expectations rise, it could strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance — unfavorable for liquidity-sensitive crypto markets. However, rising oil prices also weaken the US dollar's credibility, potentially driving some safe-haven funds into BTC, creating a slight hedge.
Technically, BTC needs to hold support between $62,000–$63,000 and stabilize above $64,000–$65,000 to relieve pressure; ETH is focused on the $1,850–$1,900 range, with the weakening ratio reflecting funds favoring BTC as a safe haven. If Wednesday's minutes lean hawkish, both will face pressure, especially with potentially higher ETH volatility.
Macro factors remain dominant — the dual pressure of high US Treasury yields and oil prices, with the Fed's direction determining the short-term trend in crypto markets.
$BTC $ETH A piece of news overshadowed by the memory chip rally but worth highlighting: South Korean officials have denied reports that "chips will be the first investment to the US." The focus here is not the denial itself, but that semiconductors are increasingly being tied to geopolitical and tariff negotiations—chips are no longer just an industry issue, they are a bargaining chip. Coupled with Trump publicly "firing" at the South Korean president tonight, revisiting old issues about US troops in South Korea and defense costs, the political risk premium on the semiconductor supply chain is visibly rising. The implication for the market is: in this rally of storage and memory, besides the bullish logic of AI demand, there is also a geopolitical variable that could disrupt at any time. The more sensational the story, the more you need to watch out for the risks behind it—those who understand will understand. After some thought
1. AI funds heavily hold AI stocks;
2. AI stocks decline;
3. Leveraged funds face margin calls;
4. Funds need to quickly raise cash;
5. Cryptocurrencies, due to good liquidity and 24/7 trading, are prioritized for selling;
A chain liquidation occurs in the crypto market.
In other words, Bitcoin sometimes falls not because of its own negative factors, but because others need cash and sell it.
In this case, the high liquidity of the crypto market becomes a weakness. $BTC $ETH Long-term US borrowing costs just broke a 19-year ceiling.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, its highest since 2007. Last week’s $25B auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest 30-year auction yield since 2001.
This is bigger than the next Fed decision. The curve is bear-steepening, with shorter-dated yields relatively steadier while the long end sells off. That points to a repricing of long-term inflation, Treasury supply, real rates and the extra return investors demand to lock up money for three decades.
As of August 17, the 30-year real yield stood at 3.06%, its highest since 2008. That raises the hurdle for non-yielding assets and tightens long-term financial conditions even if the Fed leaves its policy rate unchanged.
The impact spreads across markets:
· Bonds: higher yields mean lower prices and greater duration risk
· Economy: mortgage rates and long-term corporate financing costs can stay elevated without another Fed hike
· Gold: $XAU and $XAUT have shown resilience despite the higher real-yield hurdle
· Crypto: BTC can face a tougher liquidity backdrop, while debt and the long-term fiscal outlook remain part of the market’s broader BTC narrative
The driver matters. A rise led by stronger growth and real yields can pressure gold and high-beta assets. A rise led by inflation, supply or fiscal risk can produce a different response, with bonds, gold and BTC reacting differently.
Does 5.3% mark a lasting shift in long-term borrowing costs, or a temporary repricing of inflation and fiscal risk?
#30YYieldHits2007High The US Dollar Index has directly broken through 99.5 in the past two days, reaching around 99.19, hitting a nearly 10-week low.
The main reasons draining the dollar's strength are these three factors:
▶️ Employment data bombshell
Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and the labor market is cooling much faster than expected.
▶️ Rate cut expectations fully locked in
With inflation data steadily falling and the economy cooling, the market has fully priced in a rate cut in September.
▶️ US Treasury yields decline
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to around 4.68%, weakening the yield advantage of US bonds, causing funds to quickly withdraw from dollar assets.
🤔 My view and subsequent forecast
This round of decline is not a surprise but a concentrated pricing by the market for a US economic soft landing or even slowdown. Previously, dollar bulls who were holding on hard have no choice but to stampede out in the face of weak data.
▶️ Short term - before September: There will be some contention around the 99 level, and the downtrend may ease slightly as the market awaits the latest CPI data and Federal Reserve decision in mid-September.
▶️ Medium term - Q4: As long as the Fed initiates the expected rate cut path, the dollar is very likely to remain weak. However, if the European economy performs worse, the dollar will not crash all the way down but will more likely trend downward with fluctuations.
▶️ Asset trends: A weaker dollar directly fuels gold and commodities, while non-dollar currencies and emerging markets will also enjoy a breathing period of capital inflows.
DYOR $SPCX shorting at high levels, highest point 149.72, what do you think???
The last wave of the previous unlock rally, the subsequent trend may be downward. Without an effective breakthrough above 150, it will be a bearish trend. You can continue to enter short positions on rebounds in the 146-150 range. This wave did not push up; the unlock on August 20 is very likely to trigger selling. You can continue to chase shorts or wait for a rebound
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ [Crypto Circle Script]
I am Script Bro, and my biggest recent feeling is that the "circle of friends" in the crypto world is getting bigger and bigger.
A while ago, trading crypto meant just watching BTC, ETH, and the US dollar index. Later, gold and crude oil started stealing the spotlight crazily, especially whenever geopolitical situations changed, oil prices and gold moved first, and the crypto circle immediately followed with volatility.
Recently, at 9:30 PM when the US stock market opens, fluctuations often instantly amplify. Before, at this time, I only watched the Nasdaq and Nvidia, but now it’s not enough; stocks like SanDisk and Micron must be watched together. The storage sector has been especially crazy lately, with high heat around SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix, driven by AI capital expenditure, data center expansion, and storage supply and demand.
This actually indicates one thing: the crypto circle now increasingly looks less like an independent market and more like part of the global risk asset trading ecosystem.
Today, funds can speculate on gold for hedging, rush into crude oil for geopolitical bets, chase AI and storage in US stocks at night, and after US stock market sentiment rises, BTC and ETH react accordingly. Especially now, with US tech stocks inherently volatile, funds clearly switch back and forth among high-volatility assets.
So recently, my feeling at 9:30 PM is very clear: the US stock market opening has almost become the crypto circle’s second "data release moment."
Before, trading crypto meant watching crypto only; now, trading crypto means watching gold, crude oil, US bonds, US stocks, and storage chips all together.
When you watch the market recently, do you also feel that crypto volatility is amplified after the US stock market opens? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Let's talk about the narrative of storage expanding wider and wider. Here are a few updates to look at together tonight: SanDisk launches a new 128GB high-speed card, Samsung Display restarts its OLED production line betting on foldable screens, CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing) is named as a new hot spot, and a bunch of A-share companies are pouring money into the storage industry chain through private placements. On the surface, these are scattered news flashes, but connected they signal that AI's capital expenditure is spreading from the upstream computing power/GPU down to downstream storage, packaging and testing, and materials layer by layer. This is also why names like Micron and SanDisk have been moving more aggressively than the broader market recently. When the narrative spreads to second- and third-tier segments, it usually marks the most active phase of a sector rally, which is also when you need to protect your ammunition the most. Despite the excitement, the risk of chasing highs never disappears just because the story sounds good. The price and yield of U.S. Treasury bonds are invertedOn August 19 (Wednesday) at 2:30 PM Eastern Time, a cryptocurrency meeting will be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. President Trump will attend in person. Also attending are the U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, the key figures in U.S. financial regulation, the heads of traditional financial institutions and exchanges, and giants of the crypto industry. The main reason for the meeting is that the CLARITY Act has stalled in the Senate — this act aims to clarify the regulatory authority over digital assets. The main reason it has not passed is the ethical clause controversy related to Trump's family crypto business, World Liberty Financial, which has caused legislative gridlock. Therefore, the Trump administration is seeking to advance crypto policy through regulatory rulemaking without relying on Congress. This is a warm-up; formal talks will take place on Thursday. Most likely, there will be no results, and the spring of crypto is still very far away, very far away… 30 年期美债收益率升到 5.30%，2007 年以来没这么高过。这个数字不是财经新闻的标题党——它是给全球所有风险资产定的水位线：无风险利率这么高了，凭什么还要拿钱去冒风险？ 先看它为什么涨。联邦赤字还在扩，国债发行量堆在那里，供给砸向市场，利率就得给到够高才有人接。更要命的是需求端：6 月外国投资者持仓降了 720 亿，日本、英国、中国都在卖。一边是发债越来越多，一边是最大买家们减持，定价就这么被推上去了。 对加密市场，传导路径比"利空"两个字复杂得多。第一条路是水位：无风险利率 5.3%，持有 $BTC 的机会成本被拉到极端，估值模型的贴现率全线上调，美股先承压，高贝塔的加密只会更敏感。第二条路是资金流向：避险的钱去了黄金（金价已经冲 4500 一带）和美元，加密是被抽水的那一个。第三条路是对冲：美联储已经开始"紧急"注资，3 周买 170 亿美债，明天还要再注 42 亿——这等于承认长端利率飙升已经让市场紧张了。注资是短多，但它治标不治本，因为根子是没人愿意在 5.3% 以上接长期国债。 还有两条支线容易被忽略，但每次都能引爆波动。一条在日本：BOJ 预计每 3-4 个月加息一Today's rally is driven by institutional buying and regulatory expectations; after $ETH broke through 1920, reaching 2000 this week is realistic, but it requires volume and a stable hold above 1950 support.
Why this rally happened
- Continuous institutional buying: Companies like Strategy keep increasing holdings, accumulating over $5 billion in Bitcoin; Bitmine Immersion Technologies increased nearly 10,000 ETH last week, with total holdings about 4.8% of circulating supply, locking up circulating chips and boosting confidence.
- Improved regulatory expectations: The US stablecoin bill has made progress in the Senate, and the market expects a friendlier digital asset regulatory environment under the Trump administration, attracting compliant capital inflows.
- Strengthened fundamental narrative: The actual demand for asset tokenization and AI Agent applications is seen as a driving factor, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio to rebound.
Ethereum: outlook for tonight and this week
- Short-term target: After breaking 1920, resistance lies between 1930–1950; holding above 1950 with volume makes 2000 this week more likely.
- Support levels: Key support below is at 1850–1890; breaking below requires caution for sentiment reversal.
- Forecast reference: Some models predict Ethereum’s average price around $1905 in August 2026, with a high exceeding $2000, consistent with the current pace.
About “Green Hair” and SNDK
- Recent SNDK trend: The stock rose from about $27 to over $1800 in less than a year, driven by surging AI-driven high-capacity flash memory demand and tight supply, maintaining strong price momentum.
- Shorting risk: Shorting against a strong trend is very likely to encounter a "learn a lesson from US stocks" scenario.
Trading advice
- Follow the trend: The current trend is bullish; avoid shorting against it.
- Set proper take-profit and stop-loss: Use discipline to protect profits and control risks, avoiding gambling trades of "either liquidation or huge gains."
- Watch volume and resistance: Confirm volume when pushing above 1950; beware of false breakouts without volume.
This round of rally driven by institutions and regulatory expectations still has continuity; if it can hold above 1950 with volume, the 2000 target this week has a solid foundation.Note a signal of cooling in the AI narrative. Today, Hong Kong stock Zhipu (02513.HK) once dropped nearly 17% intraday, falling below the 1000 HKD mark, with a turnover exceeding 6.6 billion HKD. As one of the first representatives of domestic large models to go public, this scale of pullback is not just stock noise; it is capital repricing the "AI primary valuation." Looking at the bigger picture: on one side, US stocks in AI hardware and storage are still in a melt-up, while on the other, AI application/model sectors in Hong Kong stocks are being sold off—the same AI narrative is already stratifying internally, with capital shifting from "storytelling" to "selling products." This kind of structural differentiation often explains the cycle's stage better than index rises or falls. Let's watch how it unfolds. Which layer of the AI bubble do you think will burst first in this wave?Following an evolving geopolitical narrative. According to the UK Maritime Trade Organization, tonight a ship was hit by an unidentified projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and casualties among the crew; currently, it is being rescued by the Omani Coast Guard. More notably, the transit data: only six ships passed through this world's most critical energy chokepoint all day Monday, whereas the normal daily average is more than ten times that. Coupled with Iran's statement shifting its policy from "defense" to "full offense," this route is clearly heading in a bad direction. The market impact is not about "risk aversion," but rather the chain of oil prices → inflation → interest rates; those who understand know. Geopolitical matters have no script, we watch as it unfolds; first, manage positions and sentiment separately. The "BTC/ETH institutional allocation priority" is undergoing subtle changes
Most people think that institutions buy coins by bundling BTC and ETH together, but that's not the case.
When market risk appetite is weak, institutions prioritize allocating $BTC, treating it as a risk hedge tool in the portfolio, while ETH positions are compressed.
Only when risk appetite clearly warms up and Ethereum has a definite catalyst will the allocation proportion of $ETH increase.
A very realistic phenomenon: many large funds consider ETH positions as "optional offensive positions," while BTC is the "basic core position."
When the market is bad, the offensive positions are cut directly, and the core positions are retained.
This explains why in a volatile macro environment, BTC doesn't fall much, but ETH remains persistently weak.
Don't assume institutions buy both coins together; their roles in institutional asset portfolios are completely different #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
$XIAOMI Xiaomi's earnings report will be released after the market closes tonight. The market expects revenue of 108.8 billion, down about 6% year-over-year, with adjusted net profit expected in the range of 6 to 6.1 billion, possibly down more than 40% year-over-year.
The smartphone business is indeed under pressure. In Q2, global shipments were 31.2 million units, down 26% year-over-year, with market share dropping from 14% to 12%. However, the average selling price is rising, with a deliberate contraction in low-end models and a move toward premiumization. The cost increase in storage chips has eaten into profits, and gross margin may be compressed to around 8%. Volume down, price up—a painful adjustment period.
The automotive segment is the biggest variable this quarter. Q2 deliveries reached 104,000 vehicles, surpassing 100,000 units in a single quarter for the first time, with a gross margin of 20.1%, and losses narrowed to just over 2 billion. In July, SU7 monthly deliveries exceeded 30,000 units, maintaining the 30,000 threshold for three consecutive months. Two Pengcheng SUVs are set to launch in the second half of the year; if volume scales up, the automotive business could shift from burning cash to reducing losses or even approaching break-even.
I've used Xiaomi phones for quite a while, and all the appliances at home are Xiaomi's—from phones to smart home devices, all interconnected. Having gotten used to it, I really can't live without this ecosystem. This is why I believe Xiaomi can complete the "people-car-home" closed loop—it’s not building the ecosystem from scratch but already has a running chain, with the car just filling the last link.
As long as the phone business doesn't collapse, whether the automotive segment succeeds is the key to whether this quarter's earnings can beat expectations. $294 million short alliance: a precise "targeted explosion" on August 17, TradingBeats detected two top short sellers on the Hyperliquid platform simultaneously rolling and increasing their positions with $BTC, totaling 585.3 BTC (about $36.83 million), with an average trading price of $62,935. As of press time, the two had shorted a total of 2,675 BTC, with a position value of about $169 million and a floating profit of about $2.62 million. Let's first see how "coordinated" these two addresses are—0x8c96 the whale at the start: 22x cross-margin short of 1,600 BTC, position value about $101 million, average opening price $64,051, liquidation price $65,128. 0x431f Whale at the start: 22x cross-margin short of 1,075 BTC, with a position value of about $67.79 million, average opening price of $64,030, liquidation price of $65,103. This morning, the first round of position replenishment occurred only about 3 seconds apart. The same 22x leverage. The liquidation prices are locked around $65,100, with a difference of only $25. This should be the same operating team, or two completely replicated strategies executed simultaneously. The two set a unified "Reduce Position Only" stop-loss market order for 37.5% of their position—totaling 1,003.1 BTC, about $64.17 million—with a trigger price of $63,971. This price is only about 0.45% higher than the current BTC spot price. The two positions are each settled separately#英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂
NVIDIA announced it will invest $1.5 billion in SB Energy, the company responsible for building and operating the "PORTS-Pike" AI factory project in Ohio. Even more significant, multiple media reports indicate that NVIDIA will provide up to approximately $105 billion in credit support for the project's first phase—although this funding mainly involves leases, power, and residual value arrangements rather than a one-time cash injection, its strategic importance far exceeds the face value.
On the surface, OpenAI secured a massive 8GW computing capacity with a 20-year lease. But what’s truly intriguing is NVIDIA’s evolving role in this game.
First layer: From "shovel seller" to "general contractor," the underlying logic of the business model has changed
In the past, NVIDIA’s business was straightforward—build the best GPUs and sell them to clients like Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI in clean, one-off deals. But the Ohio project reveals a completely different NVIDIA: it is deeply involved in clients’ data center site selection, power infrastructure, financing structures, and even helps set up residual value handling mechanisms.
What does this mean? NVIDIA is no longer content with just making money from hardware; it wants to earn from "Infrastructure as a Service." When a company not only provides core components but also participates in your land, power, capital, and full operational chain, the cost for a client to replace it is no longer just swapping out a batch of chips—it’s a complete overhaul of the entire underlying architecture.
This is an extremely clever customer lock-in strategy. From the technical ecosystem (CUDA) to the hardware ecosystem (GPU interconnect), and now to the infrastructure ecosystem (data centers + power + financing), NVIDIA is transforming itself from a "replaceable supplier" into an "indispensable infrastructure node."
Second layer: Ingenious "double insurance" design, NVIDIA never loses
One sentence in the announcement was overlooked by many: if OpenAI does not renew the lease in the future, the related computing capacity can be subleased to other clients.
This brief sentence reveals NVIDIA’s top-tier risk control thinking.
The scale of this project is enormous—8GW IT capacity is astronomical in any era. If NVIDIA bet everything on OpenAI alone, and OpenAI changes its R&D direction, faces financial pressure, or shifts to self-built computing power, NVIDIA would face huge exposure risk. So NVIDIA designed an "exit mechanism" for itself: if you don’t lease, there are plenty of others who will. After all, GPUs are hard currency, and computing power is always in demand.
This means NVIDIA effectively holds a "call option" on this project—if OpenAI’s business thrives and they lease long-term, NVIDIA earns stable returns; if OpenAI stops leasing, NVIDIA can transfer capacity to Microsoft, Amazon, or any other AI company and still have no worries about finding tenants. This flexibility places NVIDIA in an unbeatable position.If you're going to write, write it completely (Summary)
At the end of the first tweet, I said: ETH showed a clear bottom at the $1,500 low. This is not just casual talk but a judgment based on comprehensive data.
Summarizing the three tweets:
1. Whether investors sold at a loss or profit, the remaining holdings are already few, significantly lower than during the previous two bear market bottoms — this is from the supply side perspective.
2. Some steadfast believers have continuously increased their holdings during the price decline, with total holdings surpassing historical highs — this is from the perspective of existing demand.
3. Large accounts are gradually monopolizing supply, concentrated around the $2700-$2800 range, related to BitMine and on-chain staking; these large amounts of chips, which are insensitive to price, will not temporarily convert into selling pressure — this is a structural advantage.
4. The whale cost range is between $1,900-$2,400, while $1,500 has clearly deviated negatively, generating surrender sentiment that helps clear panic selling. According to the mean reversion principle, future positive deviation is also certain. — This is an objective law.
Observing ETH's comprehensive data performance from different angles forms a logical closed loop. Hopefully, this can provide auxiliary reference for friends' investment decisions. Tomorrow, August 19th, the White House is holding a crypto industry meeting. Trump is expected to attend. The SEC Chair is coming. The CFTC Chair is also coming. People from big crypto companies like Coinbase and Ripple will also be there. Honestly, this lineup is something. What was the treatment of the crypto world before? Regulators were constantly figuring out how to control you. Exchanges were always worried about being sued. Project teams were always figuring out how to survive. Now, it's different. They are directly calling a group of crypto bigwigs to the White House for talks. This shows a very realistic issue: the U.S. is no longer simply trying to "control cryptocurrencies," but is starting to figure out how to truly integrate this industry into its financial system. This is definitely not bad news for the crypto world in the long run. But! What I want to see most is not the meeting itself. It's BTC's reaction. Because the most awkward thing in the market right now is this. The news is getting more and more positive. Policies are becoming friendlier. Yet Bitcoin is still hovering around 60,000. Isn't that frustrating? If the White House really releases a clearer regulatory signal tomorrow and BTC suddenly surges with volume, that would mean the market is finally pricing in this news. But if after the news comes out: BTC pumps a bit, then immediately dumps, or even continues to trade sideways, then I would start to doubt. Is it that old saying again: good news priced in is actually bad news? Don't forget, what really determines whether Bitcoin can take off has never been Trump saying "support crypto." It's whether real money flows in afterward. ETF$BTC 稳在 6.4 万，$WLD 今天却自己跌了 10.36%。翻新闻，没有黑客没有监管喊停（巴西那个诉讼是杂音，后面说），真正的导火索是：**Worldcoin 基金会自己向机构打折卖币**。2.174 亿枚 $WLD，成交价约 0.24 美元，比市价低 36%，锁仓一年。Pantera Capital 领投，Bain Capital Crypto 跟投，筹了 5250 万美元。 先说这个价格本身。0.24 这个数字，比"筹了多少钱"重要得多——**基金会等于用真金白银把 $WLD 一年的公允价值标在了 0.24**。市场之前把价格炒到过 0.655（60 日高），最近也有 0.37，但机构不买账，他们要的就是 0.24，还要锁一年才解锁。这笔交易告诉市场一件事：在拿真金白银的人眼里，0.33 的价格是贵的。 双方其实都很理性。基金会为什么卖？World ID 要从加密圈走出去，进企业验证、消费平台、AI 代理身份绑定，这些全要烧钱，3900 万用户是资产但变不成现金，找机构融资是最快的路。机构为什么接？Pantera 赌的是 AI 代理时代的身份验证赛道，拿长线赔率，0.24 $390 million Meme transactions, who is really profiting?】
On August 17, the combined Meme trading volume on Solana, BNB, and Robinhood chains reached $390 million, a 24.3% day-over-day increase.
Looking at this number alone, it's easy to interpret as "retail investors going crazy again."
But what I think is truly worth discussing is not how lively this $390 million is, but how it is distributed.
Solana alone took 57.4%, $220 million, a day-over-day surge of 147.5%; BNB chain had $98.45 million, accounting for 25%; Robinhood chain had $69.62 million, accounting for 17.7%.
On the surface, projects like EYE, ANSEM, and Niulai take turns dominating the charts, but in essence, it looks more like liquidity is competing among the three chains for lower fees and smoother transactions. Hot money isn’t choosing which Meme, it’s choosing which chain is more convenient.
Those who truly profit are never the ones rushing after project names, but those who control the entry points and market-making spreads.
In summary: increased trading volume does not mean your win rate has increased.
Are you more concerned about "which Meme is rising" or "where the money is flowing"?
#Solana#Meme#OnChainData#BNB#Robinhood$BTC I originally wanted to cut losses and sacrifice to the heavens, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself.🔥
Yesterday at dawn, the market was still bottoming out, and no one was talking to me; the whole market was eerily quiet. My only judgment at that time was: the bottom is consolidating, it can't fall further, so the only way left is up.
When I entered, it was 63,573.0, now it's 64,124.7. This piece of meat is really delicious🚀. Those on board should have woken up laughing; the longer the grind upfront, the sweeter the breakout.
Here's how I handled my position: first, take profits on 75%, leave 25% and move the stop loss to the cost price, let it run on its own. Put the profits in your pocket first; don't give back what you've already earned.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Risk control done upfront is called rationality; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action.
At this point, those who haven't gotten on board shouldn't rush to jump in; chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak. Wait patiently for good news, move only when the next signal comes. There are plenty of opportunities, don't rush.
$BTC $ETH It's that time again when every time something happens in the Middle East, the comment section starts imagining "war is coming, quickly buy $BTC for hedging." Tonight, another ship in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a missile, causing crew casualties, and oil prices surged overnight. Let me be clear: this round of conflict is not a safe-haven positive for crypto at all. The logic chain is — geopolitical tension → oil price rise → inflation expectations increase → market bets that the Fed will find it harder to cut rates or might even raise them → risk-free interest rates rise → gold and BTC both get pressured. To verify this is simple, just look at how the 2-year US Treasury moves; don't fall for those clickbait headlines saying "war is good for Bitcoin." Getting the macro transmission chain backwards is the root cause of retail investors repeatedly getting cut in these events. Don't be Pavlov's dog, salivating to buy crypto every time you hear "war." #SanDisk closed up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus
The boss has something to say
SanDisk closed up over 8% last night, at one point rising more than 10% intraday. Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all followed the rally.
The short position at 1741 was stopped out, with a stop loss set at 1800. The price peaked near 1820 this round, exceeding the stop loss by 20 points. Took the loss and exited.
The entry point for this trade was fine; 1741 is the lower edge of a previous dense chip area, technically clearly overbought, so a pullback was logically justified. But the market chose to push higher after Investor Day, with a 93.9 billion long-term agreement and an 80% gross margin target, the speed of capital repricing was faster than expected. SOX returned to a technical bull market, and the whole sector's $BTC $ETH $SNDK tower is strengthening. Short positions are inherently difficult to hold in this environment.
If you lose, you lose, but position control was good, so no harm done.
The SPCX base position is still in place, bought at 110 and now above 150, with enough floating profit to more than offset the loss on the SanDisk trade. Continuing to wait for direction on Bitcoin; the longer it consolidates here, the stronger the breakout will be later, but don’t get worn out in the sideways movement.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop loss. Good luck.#Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week, increasing its dollar reserves
The important institutional player in the crypto market, Strategy, has recently shown a clear change in its actions. According to the latest disclosed information, the company did not increase its Bitcoin holdings last weekend; instead, it sold $334 million worth of stock, raising its dollar reserves to a high level of $4.8 billion.
Michael Saylor stated publicly that stock buybacks are not currently a company priority, but if MSTR experiences a significant discount relative to its net asset value, buybacks may be initiated. Meanwhile, the company will maintain a high level of cash reserves, aiming to push STRC back near the $100 par value.
Looking back, Strategy's most distinctive characteristic was continuous financing and persistent Bitcoin purchases, making it a major BTC corporate buyer in the market. Now, the strategic focus has shifted to prioritizing cash reserves, preferred stock stability, and capital structure adjustments.
This has led to two very different market speculations.
One view is that hoarding large amounts of US dollars is accumulating ammunition, waiting for the right market opportunity to make a large-scale bottom-fishing entry into Bitcoin again; ample cash reserves are preparation for the next round of deployment.
However, some investors are concerned: the once continuous corporate-level buying power may gradually weaken. If Strategy no longer continues to increase its holdings, a major driving force supporting Bitcoin's market will be lost.#Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week to increase dollar reserves
Seeing Strategy's latest disclosure, I think the signals here are worth carefully pondering.
At the end of last week, the company did not continue to increase its Bitcoin holdings; instead, it sold $334 million worth of stock, raising its dollar reserves to $4.8 billion. Michael Saylor also publicly stated that stock buybacks are not a priority at this stage and will only be considered when MSTR shows a significant discount compared to net asset value; meanwhile, the company will maintain a high cash reserve, aiming for STRC to return near the $100 par value.
Looking back over a long period, Strategy's label was continuous financing and aggressive BTC buying, making it one of the most important corporate buyers in the market. But now the approach has clearly changed, focusing on cash reserves, preferred stock stability, and optimizing capital structure.
There are currently two completely different interpretations of this in the market.
Optimistic view: They are stockpiling ammunition in advance, retaining sufficient financial flexibility, and waiting for the right time to re-enter and continue bottom-fishing Bitcoin.
Pessimistic view: It means that this once core corporate buyer's driving force has begun to weaken, and the intensity of continued large BTC purchases may not be as strong as before.
This has a significant impact on the BTC market. MSTR's continuous buying in the past provided strong sentiment and buying support to the market. Now, shifting from continuous accumulation to building cash reserves, whether this is a buildup waiting for an opportunity or a retreat of buying power still needs to be observed in subsequent actions; conclusions should not be drawn prematurely.$BTC $ETH 30年期美债收益率飙到5.216% 这是2007年以来第一次站上这个位置 对金融市场来说 这不是小数字 是定价锚在重新校准 市场在告诉你 借钱给美国政府的成本正在系统性抬高 这对加密市场的压制很直接 无风险收益率5.2% 意味着机构投资者光靠买国债就能躺赚5%以上 谁还愿意来币圈冒风险 比特币作为没有现金流的资产 在这种环境里自然会被重新定价 估值压缩的压力不会小 但也不能只看一面 长债收益率涨这么快 本身就在加重美国政府的利息负担 债务占GDP比重已经超过100% 年度利息支出突破万亿美元 高利率维持越久 财政压力越大 等到某个临界点 市场对政策转向和流动性释放的预期反而会升温 这就是一把双刃剑 短期来看 BTC在64000附近承压 美债这把刀悬着 资金不敢轻易追高 但只要美债收益率不再继续冲高 压力就会逐渐减弱 如果收益率开始回落 反而是风险资产的喘息窗口 美债这把刀还在 别在刀下赌方向 等它落下来或者收回去再说#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC When will Bitcoin return to 120,000? Let me put the timing in its place: don't rush to wait until tomorrow. Many people have been asking me lately: "Can Dabing still recover 120,000?" I asked if I could do it, but no one dared to vouch for you. But if I had to bet on a time now, I would bet: from the end of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027. Why? Let's start with the simplest account of the accounts. Currently, BTC is about 64,000. Returning to 120,000 means an increase of nearly 88%. It sounds scary. But don't forget, Bitcoin's previous rise from 60,000 to 120,000 wasn't achieved overnight. The real trouble isn't the 88% increase. It's about whether there's enough money in the market right now willing to enter. This is the core. Recently, ETF funds have seen a significant inflow, indicating that institutional funds have not completely exited. But the problem is also obvious. Funds come in and out one moment. The price is just over 60,000 yuan. This shows that we're still in an awkward stage: the bears haven't completely crushed BTC, and the bulls don't have the ability to pull it up directly. So now, I'm actually not too worried about whether it will rise in the short term. I care more about three things. First, will the Fed shift toward easing in the future? Second, can U.S. spot ETFs maintain continuous net inflows for several consecutive weeks? Third, can BTC first regain its position at key positions like 70,000 and 80,000? If all three things start to improve at the same time, then 120,000 yuan is no longer just a fantasy. Conversely, if ETFs continue to flow out and liquidity remains tight, BTC will be affectedNasdaq pullback, BTC strengthens, ETH may face a turning point
Nasdaq, BTC, ETH, here’s a brief overview of my views:
1. Nasdaq: Short-term pullback, but still bullish in the medium term
Nasdaq closed with an inverted hammer yesterday, indicating increased selling pressure above, and continues to pull back today.
It may test support level 1 and support level 2 next.
However, I believe this pullback is still a normal correction within an uptrend, and the short-term pullback still supports a bullish outlook.
If the support holds, it could provide a good entry or add-on opportunity.
2. BTC: Stronger than expected, watch the 20-day moving average
BTC performed stronger than I expected yesterday, breaking back above the 20-day moving average with significant volume during the breakout.
Today, while Nasdaq is pulling back, BTC remains relatively firm with smaller pullback magnitude and volume. Optimistically, the 20-day moving average may act as short-term support; pessimistically, it might test lower support levels. Considering volume and price action, the optimistic scenario is slightly more probable.
In any case, BTC is likely to continue testing the STH-RP (currently around 67150) upwards.
If BTC moves above 67000, I will closely watch for clear resistance signals near the STH-RP before considering short positions.
3. ETH: Triangle pattern more optimistic than last time
ETH is currently forming a symmetrical triangle.
Interestingly, ETH formed a similar symmetrical triangle in April-May, which then broke downwards with a sharp decline.
But the volume and price structure of the two triangles differ significantly:
In the previous C-wave downtrend, volume increased significantly, indicating heavy selling pressure;
This time, volume decreased during the C-wave downtrend, indicating weakening selling pressure.
Therefore, compared to the previous triangle, ETH’s current volume and price structure is more optimistic, and conditions for an upward breakout are better.
If it ultimately breaks upward, the target based on the triangle pattern measurement could be near the resistance at 2046.
Summary:
Nasdaq: Short-term pullback, still temporarily bullish;
BTC: Relatively strong, watch the 20-day moving average and around 67150;
ETH: Triangle volume and price structure is optimistic, focus on upward breakout.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. #比特币 #以太坊 #BTC #ETHGood morning, everyone~ Last night, Bitcoin saw a slight rebound, returning to around $64,000. However, it's important to note that the situation in the Middle East is heating up again, US Treasury yields continue to rise, and the US stock market has pulled back. Therefore, whether this rebound can continue depends on whether it can truly break through and hold around $65,000. Recently, the market is still affected by macro factors such as geopolitical tensions and interest rate expectations. Currently, Bitcoin is around $64,300, up about 1.8% in 24 hours, rebounding intraday from around $63,000, with a high close to $64,600. ETH is currently around $1,908, up about 0.6%; SOL is near $75.9, up about 0.8%. It can be seen that BTC's rebound is clearly stronger than ETH and SOL, and altcoins as a whole have not followed suit, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. However, capital sentiment has not fully recovered, and further inflows remain to be seen. The current core market focus remains on the US-Iran situation. With Iran signaling further action and the US not expressing expectations of extending the ceasefire arrangement, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have flared up again. As a result, crude oil and gold continued to strengthen, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.72%, putting pressure on the US stock market and retreating. Rising oil prices will revive market concerns about inflation and limit the Fed's room for further easing. For risk assets, including Bitcoin, this is not particularly favorable in the short term. Regarding interest rates, the market is still waiting for the US#Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元
By the end of July, its annualized revenue had surged to $65 billion, with Q2 revenue directly exceeding $11.5 billion, compared to $4.73 billion in Q1. This growth rate is truly astonishing. The company completed a financing round of $65 billion, with a post-investment valuation reaching $965 billion. In June, it already submitted a confidential S-1 to the SEC, bringing it closer to an IPO.
Many institutional investors are already looking ahead, expecting annualized revenue to hit $100-120 billion by year-end, and even discussing an IPO valuation at the $2 trillion level.
But I want to remind you that annualized revenue ≠ actual full-year revenue, and these high valuations are just market expectations, not official company targets.
The competition between OpenAI and Anthropic is no longer just about model performance; it has escalated to revenue scale and the race for a trillion-dollar valuation. Anthropic’s annualized revenue is now leading.
However, behind the impressive numbers, risks cannot be ignored. Even if it really goes public at a super-high valuation, the market will not only look at growth rate. Customer retention, the quality of revenue structure, and the huge computing power costs that AI companies cannot avoid will pose significant challenges to profits and cash flow.
High growth is real, but so is the pressure of burning cash. The AI giants’ IPO drama is about to unfold. Whether expectations will be met or valuations are a bubble, we can continue to watch.#Anthropic annualized revenue reaches $65 billion
By the end of July, the annualized revenue directly surged to $65 billion, with Q2 revenue exceeding $11.5 billion, compared to $4.73 billion in Q1, showing a terrifying growth rate. The company has completed financing, with a post-investment valuation reaching $965 billion. In June, it already submitted a confidential S-1 draft to the SEC, preparing for an IPO.
Many investors are optimistic, predicting that the year-end annualized revenue could hit $100-120 billion, and some are even discussing a $2 trillion-level listing valuation.
However, I want to pour cold water here: annualized revenue ≠ actual confirmed full-year revenue, and these high valuations are just market expectations, not official targets.
Even if it really goes public at a super high valuation, what really needs to be scrutinized later is far more than just revenue growth. The quality of revenue, whether enterprise customers can be retained, and the cash-burning computing costs will put pressure on profits and cash flow. These are the core factors that determine how far it can go.
Now the competition between OpenAI and Anthropic is no longer just about model capabilities; it has become a race toward a trillion-dollar valuation. While it's exciting, the risk of a bubble must always be kept in mind.
What do you think about the $2 trillion IPO valuation? Is it a reasonable outlook or just a story hyped by the market? Here's an options perspective coordinate for this rebound. $BTC has squeezed shorts all the way from the lower boundary back above 64,000, but looking at the options open interest, the max pain points for the nearest expirations mostly lie just below the current price—meaning market makers' positions naturally tend to "magnetically" pull the price down rather than push it up. Coupled with implied volatility (DVOL) still being low and no buying frenzy in call options, this rally looks more like short covering rather than bulls actively attacking with options leverage. When spot, perpetual, and options markets don't align, be extra cautious about false signals from volume spikes in a single market. Let the positions speak. Which market's direction do you trust more? Global Market Outlook for August 18: Liquidity Expectations Ease, Asset Markets Enter a Phase of Divergence
Entering mid-August, the global market is undergoing a significant adjustment in expectations.
In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and previous employment data were significantly revised downward, intensifying market concerns about the U.S. labor market. Compared to the logic of "high interest rates lasting longer," the market is now more focused on whether the Federal Reserve is approaching a policy pivot window.
However, at this stage, it is more accurate to say that "rate cuts are confirmed" is not the case; rather, expectations for rate hikes have clearly cooled, and the market is beginning to reprice the possibility of future liquidity improvements.
1. Macro: Cooling Employment, Marginal Easing of Interest Rate Pressure
The biggest change in the U.S. economy currently is the gradual cooling of the labor market.
Although the July nonfarm data alone is insufficient to prove the U.S. economy has entered a recession, combined with prior data revisions, the market is reassessing the Federal Reserve's future policy space.
At the same time, U.S. inflation remains somewhat sticky, so the Fed may not quickly shift to easing in the short term.
This means the market is not truly trading on "imminent large rate cuts," but rather:
The probability of continued rate hikes is declining, and future policy space is beginning to open.
If employment continues to weaken and inflation does not significantly reaccelerate, pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may further ease, and funds currently held in cash, money market funds, and short-term bonds may gradually return to risk assets.
2. U.S. Tech Stocks: From "Valuation Speculation" to "Earnings Focus"
The U.S. tech sector remains elevated, but the market dynamics are changing.
Previously, the market mainly expanded valuations around AI narratives and rate cut expectations, but now capital is increasingly focused on one question:
Can AI truly translate into revenue and profits?
Therefore, tech stocks are likely to move away from the previous broad-based rally.
Leaders supported by real orders, computing power demand, and data center capital expenditures still have strong fundamental advantages; while secondary tech stocks lacking profit realization and mainly driven by concepts are more prone to valuation declines.
In other words, the U.S. stock market may still rise, but the gap between individual stocks will widen.
3. South Korean Stock Market: Semiconductors Remain Core
The South Korean stock market remains highly dependent on the global semiconductor cycle.
Demand for DRAM, HBM, and AI servers is a key factor determining the future performance of South Korea's tech sector. With global tech giants continuing to invest in AI infrastructure, South Korean semiconductor leaders still have fundamental support.
However, the market really needs to confirm whether AI capital expenditures can maintain high growth in the second half of the year.
If capital expenditures remain strong, South Korean semiconductors could continue to be major beneficiaries among Asian tech assets; if tech giants start cutting investments, the KOSPI may face significant pressure.
Thus, the South Korean market currently seems more like it is waiting for the next signal rather than simply lacking an upward logic.
4. BTC and Gold: One Defensive, One Liquidity-Driven
Although both gold and BTC are non-traditional assets, their capital logic differs.
Gold leans more toward risk aversion and defense. Influenced by global geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and changes in the dollar system, gold remains favored by conservative capital.
BTC is closer to a high-beta liquidity asset.
When financial conditions tighten, BTC often experiences greater volatility; when dollar liquidity improves and risk appetite recovers, its upside elasticity also significantly strengthens.
Therefore, what BTC truly needs to observe going forward is not a specific price point, but:
Whether dollar liquidity has genuinely improved and whether risk capital has returned to high-beta assets.
If only rate hike expectations decline without significant financial easing, BTC may remain range-bound; if further easing expectations emerge, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite rises, BTC's elasticity may be released again.
5. Summary: The Next Phase Is a Battle of Capital and Earnings
Overall, the global market is gradually moving from "tightening trades" into a "policy observation period."
U.S. tech stocks need to focus on earnings, the South Korean market on the semiconductor cycle, gold continues to serve defensive capital allocation needs, and BTC awaits further confirmation of liquidity.
The three most important variables ahead are:
First, whether the Federal Reserve further reduces its tightening bias;
Second, whether AI capital expenditures can continue to support tech company earnings;
Third, whether marginal capital flows back into stocks, gold, BTC, and other risk assets.
If all three improve simultaneously, risk assets may still present new upside opportunities.
But before liquidity truly turns, the market is better suited to focus on earnings, capital, and position control rather than simply chasing hot themes.
The next phase of the market may no longer be about who rises fastest, but who truly has earnings, cash flow, and capital support. #Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week to increase dollar reserves
"MSTR hasn't bought coins for eight weeks, $4.8 billion is waiting for what?"
MSTR hasn't bought coins for eight consecutive weeks, but its cash pile keeps growing.
This company, addicted to buying Bitcoin by issuing stock, suddenly stopped.
Last week, it sold another 3.46 million shares, cashing out $334 million. Not a single coin was bought, and 840,447 BTC remain untouched.
Where did the money go? $52.4 million paid in preferred stock dividends, $132 million used to repurchase its own preferred stock, and $149 million added to dollar reserves, pushing the total to a record $4.8 billion.
The ATM program is like an ATM owned by the company; when the stock price is right, it sells stock for cash.
Imagine someone who invests their salary monthly but for eight weeks only saves money without buying. The market drops, but their wallet gets fatter.
Preferred stock pays dividends twice a year, and repurchases also require cash. Cash is both a dividend commitment and ammunition for bottom-fishing.
BlockBeats' original article states plainly: funds are used for dividends, repurchasing STRC, and cash reserves, with no mention of buying coins.
Eight weeks without buying coins, no less money, bullets held back.
I haven't stopped checking their 8-K filings for two years. Retail investors should watch the dollar reserve number; the thicker it is, the more they are waiting for a low point.
One verification: check the 8-K every Wednesday. Cash thickening continuously without action often signals a big move is being prepared.
When it resumes buying coins, the announcement will come before the market. $BTC Oh my god, this market is torturing people every day!
Is the bearish trend about to form? 😭
$ETH finally touched 1900
Then immediately got slammed back down hard
The long upper shadow hanging on the K-line looks painful
Mentally chanting wildly: drop down! Drop down quickly!
Save me, who’s trapped!
Friendly reminder
Say what you want, but don’t blindly copy me with 100x leverage!
—
Ethereum is currently grinding back and forth around 1890
The four-hour chart shows a pattern of rising then falling
The 1900-1912 range is heavily suppressing pressure
But to be honest, the bearish trend isn’t fully confirmed yet
I’m just subjectively hoping for a drop
That doesn’t mean you can blindly short; always remember the risks.
—
$BEAT is really having a scary moment today
Down nearly 26% in 24 hours
A weekly retracement close to 89%
24-hour trading volume just over 40 million USD
Market cap less than 100 million
Turnover rate ridiculously high
This isn’t a simple shakeout, it’s clearly a stampede of chips fleeing.
If it can’t hold the 0.30-0.36 range in the short term
There’s no talk of stopping the drop.
Shorting risks getting caught by a sudden rebound
Bottom fishing risks catching a flying knife—both ways are tough.
—
Looking at $SNDK, it’s a completely different story
Intraday surged to 1641, up 7% on the day
High point reached 1667 USD
The company released long-term optimistic guidance
Revenue expected to grow strongly from 2028 to 2030
Gross margin target set at 80%
This rally has fundamental support, not just speculative hype.
But after continuous gains, short-term pressure has arrived.
1667 is a critical level.
If it can’t break through, profit-taking could trigger a pullback anytime.
—
Let me have a bite, dog whale
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 How to put it🤔
This time SanDisk $SNDK has gone crazy thanks to the news-driven rally and short squeeze, currently at a relatively high level. Let me jump out and summarize the situation.
(This is not telling you to short, just follow the trend!)
Most technically skilled KOLs can react in time to chase the longs. The news triggered the first wave of rapid rise (those who paid attention to Investor Day all rushed in, I was a bit slow, as I basically don’t watch a single asset 24/7, retail investors have limited energy). Then followed a second wave of rise with profit-taking and sideways consolidation, then it turned into a short squeeze hunt.
I participated in the market between Profit-Taking 1 and Profit-Taking 2 (Note: this is the range around the last three green lines, where Profit-Taking 1 marks the basis for profit-taking). Don’t just look at my picture lines and areas; this is news-driven, and matching the chart is really a coincidence.
Conservative investors took profits at Profit-Taking 1, most aggressive ones at Profit-Taking 2, and later new long entrants created Profit-Taking 3 and the short squeeze profit-taking.
(
Uh, a bit vague, so I’ll keep the above paragraph and add a new supplement
Market 1: Due to investor news, SanDisk started to surge in the purple area, conservatives took profits at the Profit-Taking 1 price level.
Market 2: Aggressive investors continued and took profits once at the Profit-Taking 2 price level.
Market 3: New investors entered long at the Profit-Taking 2 price level, then the price quickly reached Profit-Taking 3, which is the spot price’s relative high point for selling. There was a standard turning point with a previous K-line drop.
Market 4: The subsequent longs observed the shorts and decided to squeeze them, then reached balance in the green area and started a pullback.
)
I have no particular thoughts on the subsequent market; mainly, it’s very important to only make money on what you understand.
However, after storage stocks heated up, other stocks may become new opportunities. Korean stocks $EWY, Hynix $SKHY, and Samsung have concentrated chips, showing a clear attitude.
Hynix went through a downtrend channel then stopped falling, followed by a pullback and stop in a chip accumulation zone. Maybe an opportunity🤔? (See Figure 2 and Korean stock Figure 3)
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Let's talk about "crowdedness" with a piece of data that's easy to overlook. According to reports, South Korean retail investors have been piling into single-stock leveraged ETFs over the past two months, generating over 100 billion KRW in fees alone for brokers and exchanges. Leveraged ETFs are characterized by daily rebalancing: they buy more as prices rise and are forced to cut positions when prices fall, acting as typical trend amplifiers. When retail investors start using leverage tools to concentrate bets in the same direction, it's often not the start of a trend but an emotional peak zone—it makes the rise steeper and the pullback faster. This is the same type of signal as the surge in perpetual funding rates and open interest accumulation in crypto: crowdedness itself is a risk. Data won't play along with you, so be cautious where the crowd gathers. Is the market you're in crowded right now? #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk closed up over 8%, storage sector sees a new round of catalysts
On the U.S. stock trading day, SanDisk's intraday maximum gain exceeded 10%, closing with a strong rise of over 8%, directly driving Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and a group of storage companies to collectively rise, making the storage sector once again the focus of capital.
The core driving force of this round of market activity comes from SanDisk's release of its medium- to long-term business blueprint. The company expects revenue to maintain mid- to high double-digit growth from FY2028 to FY2030, with an adjusted gross margin target close to 80%, and plans to return all excess cash to shareholders. The most significant news is that SanDisk has reached new long-term business agreements with 8 customers, with contract durations up to 5 years and a total contract value as high as $93.9 billion.
For a long time, the storage industry has been labeled as strongly cyclical, with large price fluctuations and questioned performance stability. This large long-term contract is the key point of market competition. If long-term contracts can stably lock in orders and smooth out cyclical fluctuations, it is expected to continuously support high gross margin levels and fulfill cash dividend plans, allowing the logic behind this round of stock price increase to continue to be realized.
Looking at the entire sector, the commercialization of large AI models is continuously being implemented, reshaping the old cyclical logic of the storage industry. With major AI companies continuously increasing investment in computing infrastructure, demand for large-capacity storage is rising long-term. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has returned to a technical bull market, with capital continuously flowing back into the AI hardware industry chain.Macro Perspective: The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has sharply dropped, becoming the biggest catalyst for the rebound
The core driving force behind this round of rebound comes from a significant improvement in macro interest rate expectations:
· Probability of maintaining rates in September rises to 69%: CME FedWatch shows that the market pricing for the Fed to hold steady in September has risen to 69%. A few weeks ago, the market still expected two more hikes before the end of 2026, and a September hike was once considered highly likely.
· Four macro data points have weakened consecutively: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month (expected +0.1%); CPI year-over-year dropped to 3.4%; PPI year-over-year fell to 4.7%; July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000.
· 2-year US Treasury yield dropped about 20 basis points: It has been declining continuously since July 23, directly easing valuation pressure on risk assets. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 $BTC
Analyzing the correlation between miner costs and BTC historical price trends:
Historically, BTC bear markets almost always break through the average electricity cost of miners, averaging around 30%. This is why the total network hashrate decreases during each bear market cycle. The price drop only breaks through the electricity costs of some low-efficiency miners, which then drives the entire network into a period of equipment renewal...
This is a theory about the BTC network undergoing self-iteration and updates from the underlying hardware...
Currently, BTC's price barely maintains a level below 10% of the electricity cost break point, whereas in every past major crash and bear market, the electricity cost break point was around 30%. In other words, if this theory still holds, then BTC still has about 20% downside space from the absolute bottom.
A simple calculation places this price range between $50,000 and $55,000, which is also why previous quotes mentioned that the probability of BTC falling below $50,000 is extremely low.
To put it plainly, most miners in the entire network are still making a little profit, but the process of eliminating outdated hashrate is already underway...
It's not that the market is bad and miners are suffering; rather, BTC's supply system design inherently carries this cyclical nature. In other words, BTC's periodic crashes are mathematically inevitable, just like a forest must periodically experience a wildfire to complete its cycle... $CORE exposes the narrative illusion behind the pulse rebound
The market script has long been fixed: short-term surge after good news, quick pullback after inducing buying and following the trend, and long-term stuck in a range-bound bottoming.
Repeated surges and pullbacks completely tear apart the false facade of the CORE BTCFi narrative.
1. Roadshows and negotiations ≠ capital landing
North American institutional contacts are only preliminary communications, with no official cooperation announcements and no on-chain incremental staking. Price movements rely entirely on rhetoric to smooth things over; the so-called institutional layout has no solid proof throughout.
2. Ecosystem data deliberately inflated
The billion-level scale is derived by adding staked BTC market value; the native DeFi scale is very small. Funds are all stock migrations, with no real off-market incremental inflows.
3. SatPay is purely a forward-looking pie in the sky
The payment narrative seems promising, but the product has long remained in beta testing, with no license, no commercial use, and no real cash flow, relying entirely on expectations to support the price.
4. Avoiding competition and the hard flaw of selling pressure
Non-custodial staking is just a feature of the sector, not an exclusive moat, with competitors continuously siphoning off users.
Meanwhile, token unlocks continue to expand supply, creating endless selling pressure that firmly suppresses every rebound.
The market truth is blunt and harsh: good news is never absent, but the trend never materializes.
All short-term surges are emotional speculation, trapped holders sell at highs, with no incremental support, making rebounds destined to be fleeting.
No matter how good the narrative blueprint is, it cannot withstand long-term empty selling pressure. Without landing results and real capital, all fantasies will eventually be shattered by volatile market conditions.
⚠️This is an objective review based on public information only and does not constitute investment advice Documenting a short squeeze example currently happening in a major commodity. The London Metal Exchange (LME) key indicator measuring short-term supply tightness has surged sharply: one-day expiry contracts once traded at a $75/ton premium over the next day, the largest since January's copper price hit a record high; spot copper once traded $545/ton above the three-month futures. The "Tom/next spread" for rolling positions by one day has widened dramatically, indicating that short holders are being squeezed before the August contract expires. Behind this is traders rushing tens of thousands of tons of copper into the US ahead of tariff decisions, draining London inventories—this is not a demand story, but a structural mismatch. Looking at positions: it’s the same across all varieties, short squeezes often result from crowded positions rather than a fundamental reversal.The world's most fundamental value anchor, the global financial system, has recently shown a market shocking trend. According to the latest data, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond briefly broke through the 5.31% mark, setting a new record high in nearly nineteen years since June 2007. At the same time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, an important reference indicator, also climbed to a high of 4.724%. This sharp volatility is far from ordinary short-term market noise. As one of the most critical cornerstones of the global asset valuation system, the 30-year Treasury yield directly determines the valuation models for tens of trillions of dollars in mortgages, corporate bond issuance costs, and large long-term investment projects. If this risk-free rate rises significantly, all types of risk assets worldwide will face significant considerations of valuation restructuring. What exactly triggered this bond market storm? The most direct trigger was the official conclusion of the memorandum of 60-day peace agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran on Monday. Iranian authorities have publicly stated they will not consider extending the agreement, and the Trump administration has made it clear that it has no intention to renew, instantly escalating geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. government's fiscal deficit is expanding at an astonishing rate, with the federal deficit in July even hitting a record high for the same period. Under the enormous pressure of bond issuance, coupled with significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the direction of monetary policy, multiple adverse factors intertwine, collectively putting heavy pressure on government bond prices and significantly driving up bond yields. This wave of macroeconomic changes will impact cryptocurrencies$BTC remained above 64,000 (24h +1.13%), and $ETH only dipped 0.5 points, **$OKB dropped 5.65% in the morning. Looking through the OKX news feed, I saw no negative news — no hacks, no regulation, no burn delays, just technical matters. If you straighten the 60-day candlestick straight up, you'll understand: in early August, $OKB climbed from 72 all the way to 109.85 (the 60-day high I just touched yesterday), and from 8/13 to 8/15, it jumped 15% in three days, with volume more than double that of June. This isn't a gradual rise; it's built on the narrative of the X Layer public chain—DeFi TVL has increased nearly tenfold in half a year, surpassing $100 million, with over 4.2 million active addresses, plus OKX burning and locking 21 million $OKB, ICE strategic investment, and official announcements of important events next week. The narrative is tough, but prices can overdraw a month's expectations in three days, and profit-taking is only a matter of time. I also have $OKB positions myself, with costs around 103.84. This morning, this bearish candlestick appeared. The first reaction wasn't to look at the news, but to flip the 60-day candlestick to see the volume—today's trading volume was 119,000 units, which is not considered "massive volume" compared to the peak of 320,000 yuan from 8/13 to 8/15. **This is not a sell-off due to negative news, but the price of rising too quickly**. X Layer