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Yesterday afternoon, I entered a long position on Bitcoin at 63640, and this morning exited precisely at 64310, pocketing a 700-point profit, with 3352U in hand.
The logic behind this trade was simple—Monday's market showed low volume and sideways movement, with bearish sentiment fully saturated and a severe imbalance between bulls and bears. Experience tells me that such times are often windows for market reversals.
Sure enough, volume started to pick up overnight, pushing prices up aggressively, with short positions massively liquidated, driving the price above 64310.
This morning, I took a quick look and immediately had my brother exit all positions at 64310. Take what you should take, and decisively exit when it's time.
In trading, it's not about who predicts better, but who can hold on and exit properly.
The market rewards the patient and teaches lessons to the greedy.
Bitcoin might still undergo a small intraday pullback; wait for a retracement opportunity to find a new position. No stubbornness, no fighting battles unnecessarily, just keep the rhythm.
With so many brothers still standing behind, Xiao Xiao won't miss any results that should be taken.
Stay hungry!!昨晚的行情，与其说是多头在进攻，不如说是空头在撤退。 24小时内，全网爆仓7.56亿美元，其中空头爆仓5.86亿美元，占77.5%。多空比从1.66一路飙至2.41，最高触及3.78。这不是多头在猛攻，而是空头在集中回补。 行情回顾：从63,028美元反弹至64,610美元 BTC最低触及63,028美元，随后反弹至64,610美元，当前报价64,315美元，24小时涨幅约2%。 价格从63,000美元上方反弹，暂未跌破62,000美元关键防线。这一技术特征表明短期支撑结构仍在，但64,600美元尚未被有效突破。 清算数据：空头集中回补主导了这轮上涨 过去24小时全网爆仓约7.56亿美元，其中空头爆仓约5.86亿美元（77.5%），多头爆仓约1.71亿美元（22.5%）。 这一数据表明，本轮上涨的主要驱动力是空头平仓回补，而非现货市场的主动买入。当空头被迫平仓时，平仓买入订单本身会推动价格上涨，形成“上涨→空头平仓→进一步上涨”的短期正反馈。 多空比从1.66升至2.41，部分时段高达3.78-3.97——这意味着空头持仓在大幅收缩，多头持仓相对增加。但多空比的快速上升不一定来自新多头公开实盘账户：0x000b8acb515609c0a4a407915497cf3827395777 初始资金：1,000 U 快照时间：2026-08-18 08:00 UTC+8 最新持仓 当前账户权益约 995.5 USD，调仓已经执行完成： • $XMR 多头约 747.3 USD，目标 0.75x • $SKHX 多头约 647.1 USD，目标 0.65x • $MSFT 多头约 442.8 USD，目标 0.45x 实际总敞口约 1.84k USD，总敞口与净敞口约 1.85x。目标跟踪误差约 0.006，账户没有未成交订单。 调仓记录 相较上一轮，本次只调整 $SKHX：目标由 0.40x 恢复至 0.65x，增加约 249 USD 的方向敞口。 $XMR 与 $MSFT 的核心来源没有变化，继续保持 0.75x 和 0.45x。 调仓思路 上一轮下调 $SKHX，是因为一个波段来源从约 247k USD 降至 79k USD，并挂单准备退出。 但随后官方成交数据显示，这个钱包重新买入约 243k USD，持仓回升至约 322k USD。另一个中期来源始终持有约 122kThe current crypto market feels more like building up momentum than crashing. Trading activity in $BTC and $ETH has cooled significantly, with spot, futures, options, and order book liquidity lacking sufficient signals to confirm a trend breakout. BTC has recently been fluctuating repeatedly around the $63K–$65K range, while ETH is hovering around $1.85K–$1.92K, with market participants clearly becoming more cautious. Interestingly, in the first week of August, spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the US market still attracted about $1.1 billion in funds, with BTC ETFs accounting for about $865 million and ETH ETFs about $244 million. However, the price did not expand strongly in tandem, indicating that some ETF buying is being offset by selling pressure and low liquidity in other markets. Afterwards, capital momentum began to weaken. For example, on August 13, BTC ETFs had a single-day net outflow of about $131 million, while ETH ETFs recorded only about $6.7 million in net inflows, showing a clear divergence in funds. This is also the most noteworthy point at present: 📉 prices have not crashed, but trading volume has not expanded 📉. ETFs once saw strong inflows but have recently shown recurring 📉 fluctuations. Participation in derivatives and spot trading remains low 📈. A true trend breakout still requires new capital catalysts. Recent U.S. regulatory developments have also brought uncertainty to the market. Obstacles in the CLARITY Act and postponement of SEC-related meetings have made institutional funds more cautious in the short term. So, I won't simplify this trend right nowThe same stock, Nomura sees 905, Macquarie sees 275. A price difference of 630 HKD.
The institutions are in an uproar.
Nomura says 905 HKD, CICC says 604 HKD, Goldman Sachs says 560 HKD, Citi says 507 HKD, Morgan Stanley says 505 HKD, UBS says 650 HKD.
The harshest is Macquarie—275 HKD.
The highest and lowest differ by 630 HKD, more than double.
This is not an analysis bias. This is a fundamental disagreement on what "Lao Pu Gold" really is.
The bulls are telling one story.
Nomura says: The weak sales in Q2 have largely been priced in by the market; if gold prices stabilize, the company still has the potential to become a high-end consumer brand in China.
JPMorgan is even more bullish, still calling for 1296 HKD in June, then lowering to 1064 HKD by the end of July—but still twice the current price.
What do the bulls believe?
They believe China needs its own Hermès.
Lao Pu’s stores are located in SKP and Taikoo Hui, neighbors to LV and Cartier. LVMH’s boss Bernard Arnault personally spent half an hour visiting the store, saying "very exquisite, very interesting." Richemont Group’s CEO publicly affirmed Lao Pu’s market value at the earnings call.
By 2025, Lao Pu’s mainland revenue has surpassed Hermès to rank second, with store efficiency topping global luxury brands.
This is not a gold business; this is an identity business.
The bears are telling another story.
Goldman Sachs says: Q2 results missed expectations, with revenue and profit below estimates.
CICC says: High-end positioning limits pricing flexibility; during gold price declines, consumers prefer heavier products, slowing sales growth in the next quarter.
Macquarie is most direct: maintaining "underperform" rating, cutting target price to 275 HKD.
What do the bears see?
They see 16 billion HKD of inventory sitting in warehouses.
Lao Pu’s products have fixed prices, with premiums generally about 3 times the raw gold price. When gold prices rise, this is brand premium. When gold prices fall, this becomes inventory impairment risk.
Revenue in the first half was 19.8 billion to 20.5 billion HKD, up 60% to 66% year-on-year. Sounds good, right?
But Q2 revenue alone was only 2.3 billion to 3.95 billion HKD—down more than 80% quarter-on-quarter.
Q1 sales were 16.5 billion to 17.5 billion HKD, Q2 was a direct ankle cut.
The bears say: The luxury story can’t continue in the face of weak consumption.
My view?
Both sides are right, but on different time horizons.
Long term, China needs a domestic luxury brand. Lao Pu has this DNA—traditional craftsmanship, top mall locations, 82.4% penetration among high-net-worth customers overlapping with the five major international luxury brands. LVMH’s boss personally visiting the store is no coincidence.
Short term, triple pressure: 16 billion HKD inventory, gold price down over 20% from January highs, weak consumption.
Q2 results fell off a cliff quarter-on-quarter—not a "slowdown," but free fall.
More painful is: Lao Pu sells "gold + craftsmanship + brand," but recyclers only recognize "gold." The necklace you paid 3 times premium for, when recycled, is only valued at market price minus 100 HKD.
Buying is luxury; selling is raw material.
This gap is Lao Pu’s core contradiction.
Lao Pu’s current P/E ratio has dropped from about 50 times to around 12 times—on par with traditional gold stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang.
The market is voting with its feet: no matter how good your story sounds, I’ll price you like a gold store first.
So the question is—if gold prices really rise back to 4900 USD (Goldman Sachs’ year-end target), will Lao Pu rise with it, or continue to fall and not follow the rise?
Year-to-date, gold has risen 1.3%, Lao Pu has fallen 46%.
It has indeed broken the fate of moving with gold prices—just in the opposite direction.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT $SNDK Seize every swing!!!
Everyone says this drop was caused by Changxin going online, but Uncle Wei doesn't think so! Although it has an impact, it's not significant!
So on the 7th, he tends to believe that this drop was caused by the combined effect of Changxin's listing stimulating market sentiment, high-level profit-taking, and the overall revaluation of the AI storage sector.
However, this drop was also expected; it's not just Changxin alone that can determine SanDisk's trend. Uncle Wei mentioned this earlier; if you don't know, you can check previous posts.
If you still hold short positions on SanDisk now, don't rush to cut losses, and don't blindly add positions!
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ $SPCX BTC's market in the past two months has been like a stagnant pool, fluctuating narrowly between 60,000 and 65,000. Many friends are still debating whether it counts as cheap chips now. I'll first share my judgment: I still stick to the view from two months ago: the bottom has already formed, and we are currently in the process of building the base.
Why was I so confident two months ago? Because let's not forget, where did the core driving force of the last bull market come from? It was the ETF. Looking at the changes in the total BTC ETF holdings in the chart, you can see that two months ago it had already bottomed and started to rise. The current holdings are already comparable to the levels at the peak of the 2025 bull market. Despite BTC's deep correction for such a long time, the ETF did not experience panic-driven stampede redemptions; instead, it stabilized the situation. This indicates that the funds entering through the ETF channel have an investment cycle and logic more inclined towards long-term asset allocation, which aligns well with the "chip accumulation" characteristic in Wyckoff theory. The chips are transferring from weak hands to firm "strong hands".
The firm holding by ETFs has a significant impact on BTC's cycle: currently, the bitcoins held by ETFs account for 6% to 6.5% of the circulating supply, and they tend to hold long-term. Keeping a close eye on their holding behavior is very valuable for judging the direction of the major cycle. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
$XIAOMI Xiaomi is about to release its Q2 earnings report tomorrow, and what I most want to see now is the profit of Xiaomi Auto in Q2.
Why not look at Xiaomi phones? Because phones are still Xiaomi's core business, and the short-term pressure is already very clear. In Q1, Xiaomi phone revenue dropped 12.5% year-over-year, shipments fell 19.2%, and at the same time, price increases in components like storage pushed the phone gross margin down from 12.4% to 10.1%. So for this earnings report, as long as the phone segment "doesn't continue to worsen," I think it can be considered as meeting expectations.
What could truly change market expectations is when Xiaomi Auto shifts from a money-burning business to a profit source. Last quarter, innovative businesses like smart cars still had an operating loss of about ¥3.1 billion, but auto revenue already reached about ¥19 billion. If Q2 auto revenue continues to grow, while single-car gross margin improves and losses narrow significantly, that would be far more meaningful than selling a few million more phones.
Because the truly imaginative part of Xiaomi has never been just selling phones or cars separately, but gradually connecting phones + cars + AIoT + AI into one ecosystem.
I think the market might reconsider a question—should Xiaomi be valued as a phone company, or as a tech company with a "people-car-home full ecosystem"?
This might be more important than whether Q2 single-quarter profits beat expectations or not $XIAOMI fell quickly from 3.40 to 3.25 in pre-market trading, with short-term funds showing risk-averse behavior ahead of earnings release. High upstream memory chip costs are squeezing hardware gross margins, and market risk appetite is shifting toward profit realization ability. If automotive business gross margin improves beyond expectations and the price rebounds to 3.35, sentiment is likely to recover; conversely, if earnings pressure causes a drop below 3.24, selling pressure on positions may intensify further. Going forward, focus will be on the earnings report's automotive profit inflection point and the actual figures for mobile phone gross margin.
#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨Altcoin market enters a "rotation acceleration period," and what’s truly worth watching isn’t the top gainers list
Today, these two charts actually release a signal more important than "how much a certain coin has risen": capital is shifting from a single mainstream coin rally toward high-elasticity altcoins, AI, DePIN, RWA, and US stock-mapped assets.
From the charts, $GPS weekly gains have exceeded 50%, with $PIEVERSE, $OFC, $H, $ALLO, $EDEN, and others strengthening simultaneously. The key point here is: not all price increases belong to the same market trend. Some are driven by active capital attacks, while others are just price elasticity caused by low circulating supply. If you only look at green gains, it’s easy to buy at the hottest emotional point.
I pay more attention to three indicators: whether trading volume expands synchronously, whether the price can consolidate after rising, and whether volume shrinks on a pullback after a breakout. These three conditions are much more important than single-day gains.
$GPS is one of the strongest targets worth studying today. A weekly gain over 50% indicates that short-term capital attention has clearly increased, but the first risk after continuous rallies is profit-taking. The truly good entry point is not chasing the first big green candle but waiting for its first pullback. If trading volume shrinks significantly and the previous breakout area forms support, it means capital is not rushing to exit.
The logic behind $H leans more toward "identity verification + AI/Web3 infrastructure." The project itself has a clear narrative, but the biggest variable now is token supply. On August 25, $H will have a large token unlock, expected to release about 266 million tokens, roughly 2.7% of total supply and about 8.1% of current market cap. So even if the price is strong, the unlock pressure must be factored into the trading plan.
$ALLO belongs to the AI oracle/AI infrastructure sector, with good thematic elasticity but also supply pressure. There was an unlock round in August, and a larger unlock node is coming in November, so it’s better to observe "capital absorption after pullbacks" rather than simply chasing gains.
Other coins worth adding to the watchlist are $ACU, $ALLO, $EDEN, $BICO, and $ONT. Among them, $ACU belongs to the DePIN/decentralized computing sector; its tokens are directly used for network fees, computing payments, staking, and governance, with a relatively clear fundamental narrative. However, there is also significant unlock pressure around August 20, so "strong trend + unlock" must be considered simultaneously.
I now actually do not recommend using "top gains" as a buying reason. What’s truly worth positioning for are coins with real narratives, capital inflows, just completed structural breakouts, but have not yet experienced continuous explosive rallies.
Next, focus on this signal: $BTC remains stable → $ETH does not break support → altcoin trading volume continues to increase → capital spreads from the first tier to the second tier.#Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week, increasing dollar reserves
Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week but did not buy a single BTC. The money went to three places—paying dividends, repurchasing preferred stock, and hoarding cash. The coin accumulation flywheel has stopped; now it's a "survival first" mode.
What exactly happened?
From August 10 to 16, Strategy sold 3.459 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, net raising $333.7 million. During the same period, no Bitcoin was bought or sold, with holdings remaining steady at 840,447 BTC.
Where did the money go?
① $52.4 million paid in STRC preferred stock dividends; ② $132.2 million repurchased STRC preferred stock; ③ $149.1 million added to dollar reserves, bringing total reserves to $4.8 billion.
This marks several consecutive weeks of "only selling, no buying." Over the past five weeks, approximately $2.1 billion of common stock was sold, along with $213.3 million worth of Bitcoin. At the end of June, Saylor officially announced abandoning the "continuous accumulation" strategy in favor of a "capital management mode." The 840,447 BTC holding cost $75,385 each, with an unrealized loss of about $10 billion. The $4.8 billion cash reserve can sustain for a while, but the narrative of "never selling" has completely ended. Everything Strategy is doing now—selling stock, hoarding cash, repurchasing preferred stock—is sending the same message to the market: survival is more important than adding to positions. $BTC $ETH #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The US Treasury yield line has broken through again.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is the pricing anchor for global risk assets. When it rises, it means the risk-free return rate is increasing, and the appeal of risk assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin diminishes. For the crypto space, this is a macro-level headwind.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways for almost three weeks, which is closely related to this situation. Without a drop in long-term interest rates, it's difficult for risk assets to undergo a systemic revaluation. The US Treasury yield anchor here at least suppresses the upside potential of risk assets.
Here’s my take.
The fundamental reason for this round of rising long-term interest rates is not runaway inflation expectations but excessive debt supply and insufficient buyers. When the world's largest US Treasury holder is reducing holdings, it's no surprise yields rise. But the higher the yield, the higher the US government's own debt servicing costs, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Whether this cycle can continue in the long term is questionable, but in the short term, it is indeed suppressing risk assets.
What do you all think?
$BTC $SNDK $XIAOMI $FIL 0.67 is just empty profit, brothers.
Let's kill this thing to zero.
Dreaming of a rise? Everyone is watching the halving in October.
The project teams have all run away, yet you still expect a rise?
Most likely it will drop to 0.5 in October.
In two months, you'll come back and thank me.
The October halving is not about mining rewards being halved.
Now the mining payback period has stretched to over ten years, and machines become obsolete in three to four years. Theoretically, you can't break even. Would miners still mine? They would have already taken their hard drives to do AI computing power.
Right now, the project teams are just holding on until October to run away directly, because they pay over 200,000 coins in salaries daily. By October, when no salaries are paid, who will care about this trash coin? It will slowly decline to death.
Funds are now flowing into US stock tokens; the trend is very clear. The project teams won't be stupid enough to pump the price; there's simply no hype to speculate on.From the collapse of the old gold shop, see the "narrative premium" trap in the crypto world
The story of the old gold shop is all too familiar in the crypto world.
An asset, relying on cultural narrative, brand tone, and scarcity, pushed its price to three times its underlying value.
Then the market turned, and the 3x premium instantly evaporated.
In one year, market value evaporated by HKD 130 billion—more than Chow Tai Fook's latest market cap.
From a historical high of HKD 1108, it fell to HKD 282.
This story is exactly the same as the altcoins in your hands.
One-to-one correspondence, see if it looks familiar:
Old shop's "traditional craftsmanship, Chinese aesthetics, imperial heritage" → Crypto project's "technical narrative, community culture, top in the sector."
The old shop uses craft terms like filigree, engraving, and blue firing to package itself as the "Hermès of the East." The project uses tech terms like ZK, modularity, AI Agent to package itself as the "next Ethereum."
Old shop's "SKP + Hermès neighbor" → Project's "top institutional endorsement + leading exchange."
Old shop stores only enter SKP, Taikoo Hui, deliberately opening opposite Hermès. Projects only list on top-tier exchanges, with financing from top VCs. Location determines status; which exchange you list on determines your level.
Old shop's "fixed price" model → Project's "consensus pricing."
The old shop completely abandons "gold price + labor cost," directly setting a high price detached from weight. The project completely abandons "PE valuation," directly setting a market cap detached from revenue. Neither looks at fundamentals, only at how big the story is.
Old shop buyback only counts gold price → Project liquidity dries up, only on-chain data/actual users count.
Consumers who paid 3x premium for a necklace get buyback only at market gold price minus 100 HKD/gram. You who bought tokens at 100x PE get liquidity dried up, buyback only based on protocol revenue—if there is any revenue left.
Bought at 3x premium, cashed out only at underlying asset value.
The gap here is the phrase "thought I bought luxury goods, but ended up with huge losses."
The old shop's crash tells us one thing:
When the market switches from "storytelling mode" to "accounting mode," all premiums will be eliminated.
In 2025, the old shop's annual revenue was 27.3 billion HKD, net profit 4.87 billion HKD. In Q1 2026, it earned 70% of last year's full-year profit in just one quarter.
Performance is so good, yet stock price still crashes.
Why? Because Q2 performance plunged over 80% quarter-on-quarter. International gold price fell from 5600 USD/oz to below 4000 USD.
The old shop hoarded 16 billion HKD worth of gold inventory at high prices, with no hedging.
When gold price fell, all paper profits turned into devalued gold in the warehouse.
The market no longer believes "traditional craftsmanship" can resist gold price fluctuations. The premium is money lent by the market; when the market turns, it takes back principal and interest.
What about the crypto market?
The same.
In 2026, the industry has switched from "narrative-driven" to "fundamentals-driven." The era of pure narrative altcoins is over.
Those projects propped up by stories—no revenue, no users, no products—are being wiped out in batches.
CryptoQuant CEO bluntly says: narrative altcoins are coming to an end.
The days when a hot concept could support an astonishing valuation are over. Industry valuation logic is returning to real revenue.
The altcoins in your hands, are they "old gold shop"—with craftsmanship, brand, story—
or just a piece of "raw gold" waiting to be weighed?
The old shop taught all investors a lesson with HKD 130 billion market cap evaporation:
Premium is money lent by the market, sooner or later it must be repaid.
When gold price rises, the old shop is the "Hermès of gold." When gold price falls, it is a gold store hoarding 16 billion HKD of devalued gold.
In a bull market, you are the "next Ethereum." In a bear market, you are just a string of code with no liquidity.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 全球金融市场最关键的“锚”，刚刚触及了一个惊人的数字。 就在几小时前，美国30年期国债收益率突破5.31%，创下2007年6月以来的最高水平。10年期美债收益率也同步升至4.724%。 这不是一个普通的市场波动。30年期美债收益率是全球最核心的资产定价基准之一——它影响着全球数万亿美元的抵押贷款、企业债券和长期投资项目的定价逻辑。当它剧烈变动时，全球风险资产的估值体系都需要重新校准。 发生了什么？ 核心导火索是美伊之间为期60天的和平协议备忘录于周一正式到期。伊朗已明确排除了延长该协议的可能性，而特朗普政府则表示不寻求延长谅解备忘录。 地缘政治风险叠加美国财政赤字加速扩张（7月联邦赤字创历史同期最高），以及美联储内部分歧加剧，共同压低了债券价格、推高了收益率。 对加密市场意味着什么？ 短期来看，这是一个需要警惕的信号。 当10年期美债收益率快速攀升至4.7%以上时，它对所有风险资产都构成了估值压力。无风险利率的上升降低了高风险资产的相对吸引力，这意味着加密市场需要更高的风险溢价才能吸引资金。 但长期来看，更深层的逻辑在另一边。 30年期美债收益率创19年新高，也在提醒市场一件事：法定货"The Quietest K-Line Before the Storm"
$BTC is drawing a straight line—sideways, sideways to the point of drowsiness. But veterans know this is the most dangerous signal before a market shift.
Three macro issues, none reassuring:
Don't just watch the Fed's dove-hawk vote count; focus on their "recession tolerance" cracks—that's the trump card;
Ignore the Strait of Hormuz chatter; Brent crude at $88 and 30x freight rates not falling means the geopolitical bomb hasn't been defused;
Weak PMI in Europe and the US supports rate cuts, but if it weakens too fast, that's recession; the market is stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma.
Don't be fooled by the market either.
BTC is consolidating with low volume between 62,000-63,000, technical indicators are worthless.
ETF net outflows for three consecutive days—money is leaving, the show is over.
Want to turn bullish? 64,000+ with volume and inflows—three green lights, all must be present; missing one means just a rebound.
$ETH is holding firm at 1900, can't break 1930, still in a box range, don't expect a solo breakout.
One word for this week: wait.
No adding positions, no bottom fishing, no betting on news.
The trigger only pulls for a real breakout or a genuine dovish turn.
Cash is not cowardice; it's the bullet for the next shot.
Let the market move first, we're not in a hurry.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Revenue is under pressure, and profits have sharply declined, mainly due to the dual impact of rising storage prices and declining shipment volumes in the smartphone business. The smartphone gross margin will be the most glaring figure tonight, which is no surprise.
But shifting focus away from short-term profit fluctuations, what truly deserves attention is the qualitative transformation speed of the smart electric vehicle business.
Deliveries have stabilized above 30,000 units for four consecutive months, with 31,267 vehicles in July and a cumulative total exceeding 216,000 in the first seven months.
The SU7 continues to lead sales in the sedan market above 200,000 yuan, the YU7 fills the SUV gap, and the Pengcheng extended-range series will join in the second half of the year. More importantly, automobiles are no longer a "new business" but a key closed loop in Xiaomi's "people, car, home full ecosystem." Smartphones, AIoT, and automobiles are deeply integrated through AI and operating systems, creating a synergy barrier that pure smartphone manufacturers and pure car companies find hard to catch up with in the short term.
The automotive sector is still in the investment phase; gross margin and operating profit will be affected by the ramp-up of new vehicles, so these figures in the financial report are likely to look unattractive. However, over a 2-3 year horizon, once delivery scale steps up and per-vehicle economics improve, the contribution of automobiles to the group's valuation will far exceed current expectations.
Smartphones are the foundation and must be stabilized; the internet is the cash cow and must be defended; but what can truly transform Xiaomi from a "consumer electronics company" into a "smart ecosystem company" is still automobiles.
Tonight, focus on three points: year-on-year growth rate of automotive revenue, changes in segment gross margin, and management's statements on delivery pace for the second half of the year. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ Fundamental Research Report $MANTA / Manta Network (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Conclusion first: Manta Network ($MANTA) overall score 50/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, token value transmission still needs observation.
Manta Network (token $MANTA), L2/sidechain sector. Focuses on ZK L2 + privacy. Competitors ARB, OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas spikes, TPS limits, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents occur. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $1.6K, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing see PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales see whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration see API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Manta Network $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. FDV, Manta Network $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Annual revenue, Manta Network $1.6K, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Manta Network undisclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1851166.2x, FDV divided by revenue 2591632.7x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overdrawn expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. Core financial indicators deviating more than 30% require reassessment.
Report finished, please consider carefully.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitSanDisk $SNDK surged again today by 8.88% to $1787, with the entire storage sector exploding, but I still have to say: take profits in batches while strong, don’t chase.
This rally is driven by three catalysts: the August 13 Investor Day, which presented a long-term model projecting mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth from 2028-2030, a non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, an operating margin of about 75%, and a commitment to return 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders; signed contracts with 8 data center customers locking in a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, with $91.1 billion in orders on hand; plus a $15.5 billion buyback. Today, Elon Musk named the three storage giants, and Goldman Sachs forecasted 24x demand growth by 2030, sending the sector into a frenzy.
Of course, this is also tied to sector enthusiasm. Micron $MU also rose today, Hynix followed suit (Hynix hit a historic high with +8.33% on the Korean stock market today), the entire storage sector surged, and SanDisk was among the strongest performers.
Long-term contracts have transformed the company into one with a guaranteed floor, with $93.9 billion minimum revenue roughly representing the base for the next four to five years.
So why am I still telling everyone to take profits?
Because it’s gone crazy! The Investor Day just passed, and yesterday it jumped another 8.88%, with a turnover rate of 12.35%, indicating an emotional peak and overextended expectations. From a 52-week low of 42.82 to now 1787, it has multiplied over 40 times. The current price already factors in the performance of the next two years. Look at Micron $MU, whose Q2 earnings were also explosive, but even at peak expectations, its after-hours price still dropped 8%. At SanDisk’s current level, any slight disturbance could trigger a sharp drop.Tonight's Xiaomi earnings report is the highlight. The market expects revenue to be 108.8 billion yuan, down about 6 percentage points year-on-year. Earnings per share are 0.2 yuan, cut in half year-on-year. The numbers don't look great, but the market isn't looking at the past—it's the future. Mobile phone business: volume drops, prices rise. High-end segments tell the story. Global smartphone shipments hit a Q2 low since 2013. Xiaomi's share fell from 14% to 12%. China's shipments fell 21.7% year-on-year. The numbers are indeed not good, but the focus isn't on volume—it's on price. Storage price hikes are almost wiping out profits from low-end phones. Xiaomi is actively cutting back on low-end shipments Heading high-end, mobile ASP is expected to surge to 1,336 yuan, setting a new high. Short-term pain, but long-term direction remains intact. Automotive business deliveries exceeded 100,000 units. New cars are the trump card for the second half of the year. Q2 vehicle deliveries exceeded 100,000 units, revenue expected to surges to just over 26 billion yuan. Gross margin is about 20.6%. Scale effects are starting to materialize, losses are narrowing. More importantly, in September, two range-extended SUVs, the N70 and N90, will be launched, with pre-sale prices between 259,900 and 299,900 yuan. These two are the real variables in the second half of the year. The annual target is 500,000 yuan The completion rate in the first half of the year was less than 50%. Whether it meets the target depends on whether these two cars can explode. AI business: From showing off muscles to calculating revenue, Xiaomi AI is entering the commercialization validation stage. Goldman Sachs expects Q2 to contribute 100 to 150 million in revenue, and Q3 around 300 million. The numbers aren't huge, but direction matters more than the numbers. Xiaomi's AI layout is being implemented, not just empty promises. Sister Mutou's view is very direct: the short-term pressure on the smartphone business is a clear sign. The market is already in demandXiaomi will release its Q2 2026 earnings tonight
The market generally expects a somewhat weak report: revenue may decline about 5%-7% year-over-year, and net profit could drop by more than 40%
The core pressure comes from the smartphone business—rising prices of storage chips continue to squeeze gross margins, and shipment volumes are also facing some contraction, even though the company is trying to hedge by raising ASP and moving upmarket.
Phones remain the foundation, IoT and lifestyle consumer products are relatively stable, and internet services continue to contribute high-margin cash flow, all of which are important. But what truly determines Xiaomi's mid-to-long-term narrative is its smart electric vehicles and AI innovation business
From the latest delivery data, this segment has already found its rhythm. In July, Xiaomi delivered 31,267 vehicles, marking the fourth consecutive month surpassing the 30,000-unit threshold, with over 216,000 units delivered in the first seven months. The SU7 continues to hold the sales crown in the sedan market above 200,000 units, and the YU7 has formed an effective complement
Although the full-year target of 550,000 vehicles still requires acceleration in the second half, maintaining this delivery platform amid intensified industry competition and subsidy reductions itself demonstrates that product strength and supply chain execution have withstood the test.
Automobiles are no longer an isolated hardware business but a key part of the "people-car-home ecosystem." Phones serve as the hub, AIoT as the connector, and cars as the mobile terminal. The three are deeply integrated through the Surge OS and AI capabilities, creating a synergy that other smartphone manufacturers and traditional automakers find difficult to quickly replicate. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The leader has something to say
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to the 5.29% to 5.32% range, the highest since 2007. The 10-year yield also reached around 4.72%.
This situation has two implications.
First, debt supply is expanding. The scale of US debt continues to grow, and there is already significant pressure from long-term bond issuance. The UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings in June, meaning fewer buyers, so yields can only rise.
Second, the AI financing wave is competing for funds. AMD issued 4.75 billion in bonds, Intel is issuing stock, and Nvidia is setting up a 500 billion financing platform. The financing demand for AI infrastructure has directly pushed up the supply of investment-grade bonds, pulling long-term rates higher. Japanese government bonds are also being sold off, indicating this is not a problem unique to the US.
With long-term rates staying high, financing costs for governments, corporations, and households all rise. For risk assets, valuation pressure is very real. BTC is consolidating at this level; besides shrinking trading volume, the continuous rise in long-term bond yields suppressing risk appetite is also a key reason. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
But don’t simply interpret this as bearish. The core driver behind the new highs in long-term bond yields is not inflation, but debt supply and the AI financing wave. If the Federal Reserve sees that excessively high long-term rates threaten financial stability, it may use distortion operations or wording to guide market expectations.
The SPCX base position is still intact, with considerable unrealized gains. BTC continues to wait for direction; the longer it consolidates here, the stronger the subsequent breakout will be, but the premise is not to get worn down during consolidation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop-losses set. Good luck.U.S. tech giants with high valuations are facing a reshaping of systemic risk premiums, and cross-market transmission may suppress global risk appetite. ECB research points out that the diffusion of AI technology into the macroeconomy increases unhedgeable systemic risks. Coupled with Eurozone households and institutions holding €440 billion in U.S. stock exposure, cooling sentiment will amplify cross-market position adjustment pressures. If tech giants' AI monetization efficiency falls short of expectations or market credit conditions tighten, the clearing of overly optimistic premiums will accelerate the high-level position pullback. Key indicators to watch are AI infrastructure monetization efficiency significantly exceeding expectations or macro liquidity easing releasing beyond expectations.
#Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元 #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注$SNDK Let's talk about SanDisk again. Yesterday's post accurately predicted SanDisk's trend, and I also timed it right to take a precise short position at 1820.
So, beginners must not rush, especially in the few seconds before the market opens. If you haven't clearly seen the trend, don't act hastily. Wait for the tug-of-war between bulls and bears to reveal the trend before making a move. You need to be a tiger, not a rabbit that jumps out anxiously and becomes a live target...
Just now, watching the market, with KOSPI's classic rise and fall, the entire storage sector was also affected. Combined with SanDisk's repeated failure to hold 1800 points last night during its attack, the recent rebound in the storage sector should have peaked. Congratulations to those short positions without stop-loss.
The upcoming competition between bulls and bears should still be intense. As mentioned in the previous post, SanDisk's fundamentals are becoming clearer: long orders, performance guidance, and progress on HBM all make it less easy to short than before. Remember the bounce between 1200~1400 points? That was such a beautiful memory X'D
I predict tonight will be a battle for 1700 or 1650 points. Given the current bearish trend, bullish friends should hold back for now, while bearish brothers can wait for opportunities to short at rebound highs. A 5% Treasury bond yield does not cause the stock market to peak and decline. Could Bitcoin behave the same way?
⠀
Wall Street believes that a 5% Treasury bond yield will not cause stocks to collapse, but Bitcoin has dropped 46% while gold surged with the same yield level.Some are waiting for the market to pull back, while others are waiting for the right moment.
GvHYQQ hasn't moved for two years, suddenly buying 47,000 SOL, spending 3.6 million. This move is quite impressive.
Previously, he nailed the bottom twice and made big money. Now making a move again, it might not be just for fun.
There are always people quietly positioning in the market, silently doing their own thing.
$SOL Everyone, everyone, calm down and take a look
True stabilization has never been pulled up by some big bullish candle; it naturally forms at the moment when "those who want to run finally can't run anymore."
These two signals have vastly different levels of reliability.
When the market rebounds, people always like to count the main funds and look at the long-short ratio, trying to catch who is entering the market. But for $BTC, the core variable for every real bottoming out is always the exhaustion of selling pressure: contract liquidations, forced selling from trapped positions, leverage withdrawal, and collateral redemption.
These people give up their chips not because they are pessimistic about the future.
But because liquidity has been drained, and they have no choice but to yield.
So I prefer to focus on the market's reaction when bad news hits. The same regulatory rumors, the same macro disturbances, the same miner transfer news—if BTC's drop is shallower each time and the rebound is faster each time, this is often closer to the truth than any technical golden cross.
Because the bottom never requires everyone to be unanimously bullish.
It only requires that the most panicked and passive group has run out of bullets.
The real bottom often looks passionless.
The candlesticks move painfully slowly, and the community is eerily quiet.
The only difference is—the bad news is still flying, but the price can no longer fall.
#BTC #Bitcoin #BottomSignal #Crypto #TradingInsights #OKXPlanet最新交易日里，$SNDK 盘中一度涨超10%，最终收涨逾8%，美光、西部数据等存储股也同步走强。 一、市场在交易什么？ 核心还是SanDisk投资者日释放出的长期预期。 公司预计FY2028—FY2030营收保持中高双位数增长，调整后毛利率目标约80%，同时计划将100%的超额现金返还给股东。 市场现在看的，已经不只是闪存价格反弹，而是未来几年收入、利润率和现金回报能不能持续改善。 二、长期协议为什么重要？ 按截图信息，SanDisk已与8家客户签署新业务模式协议，最长5年，总价值约939亿美元。 如果这些协议顺利兑现，最大的意义是提升未来收入的稳定性和可见度。 三、为什么整个存储板块都在涨？ 因为市场正在重新给存储板块估值。 AI数据中心需求增加，NAND、闪存和数据存储的重要性被重新认识，所以美光、西部数据、SK海力士等也同步受益。 四、接下来真正看什么？ 短期SanDisk已经涨得很快，后面重点看三件事： 长期协议能否转成真实收入； 高毛利率目标能否兑现； AI存储需求能否继续增长。 如果这几个逻辑持续兑现，这轮行情就可能不只是短期反弹，而是进入更长一轮的业绩重估。All have dropped more than 90%, but the logic is completely different: How I view $CORE, $SATS, $ORDI, $BICO If I were to put $CORE, $SATS, $ORDI, and $BICO on the same table for a fresh review now, I wouldn’t first ask “which one dropped the most,” but rather another question: Why would the market buy it again when the next round of funds returns to small-cap altcoins? This is the most important question when evaluating old coins. Because for assets that have already gone through a full bull and bear cycle, with prices dropping 90% or even 99% from their highs, “dropping the most” has never been the investment logic. A coin dropping from $10 to $1 is a 90% drop; then from $1 to $0.1 is another 90%. What truly determines the odds is what remains after the drop. As of August 18, 2026, $CORE’s circulating market cap has fallen to about $26 million, with its price retracing about 99.7% from its all-time high; $SATS’s market cap is about $21.6 million, also close to a 99% drop from its all-time high; $ORDI’s price is about $3.4, with all 21 million coins fully circulated, corresponding to a market cap of about $71 million; $BICO has dropped to around $0.02, with a market cap under $20 million, and its volatility remains very high in the past week. So looking at these four coins today, we can no longer apply the valuation system from 2023 or 2024. What they are trading now is residual value, Brothers
SanDisk started this wave from 993 and surged straight above 1800, with a short-term increase of over 80%. Last night, the market briefly pierced 1800, reaching a high near 1835. I directly placed short positions in batches above 1800, and the live short orders are already secured.
I dare to put all my judgment on this move, not out of impulse, but because I have identified the signal.
First, looking at the technical side: the 4-hour RSI has already surged to 89, which is an extremely overbought warning zone; the MACD shows a clear bearish divergence at a high level, with the price twice rising and falling around 1663, forming a typical double top pattern. Moreover, after huge volume transactions, the volume quickly shrank. Above 1800, in my eyes, is the extreme zone of emotional exhaustion. The rebound reaching here has little room left.
Next, on the fundamentals: SanDisk rose from over 40 dollars to 2354 dollars, with market capitalization expanding more than 50 times, but two-thirds of the Q2 growth was propped up by price increases, while the consumer business is actually contracting. On the other hand, SK Hynix's new NAND capacity is already on the way, and the signal of a cycle turning point is becoming clearer. This is not speculation, it’s a clear sign.
The capital flow is even more direct: smart money has long been withdrawing. Renaissance Technologies cut its SanDisk position by over 99%, and Appaloosa directly liquidated about 280,000 shares. Institutions are massively exiting; if you are still rushing in, who is taking the chips, who is selling, it should be obvious.
Therefore, I choose to short above 1800, not chasing a falling knife, but waiting for the rebound to hit the extreme position before making a precise move. This time, I have staked all my judgment because I am confident this is the emotional ceiling of this rebound.
That’s all I have to say, think it over yourself.
$SNDK
$BTC
$ETH
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.31%.
In short:
The Fed hasn't raised rates yet, but the market has already priced in higher long-term funding costs.
This is no small matter for BTC, gold, and US stocks.
Especially for BTC, an asset that relies on liquidity, the biggest fear is "no short-term rate hikes, but long-term money getting more expensive."
So don't just focus on CPI and rate cut probabilities these days.
What might really be weighing on risk assets is the long-end US Treasury.
$BTC $XAU After CZ "turns off the lights": Why do some people make money by watching whale wallets?
Folks, CZ's recent actions have brought an interesting on-chain phenomenon to the forefront: why can watching a single wallet potentially earn you money?
The answer is: the wallet itself is information.
Ordinary addresses get no attention, but CZ's and top whales' wallets are different.
When they buy, how much they sell, and where they transfer—all of it is public.
Thus, whale wallets become the market's "signal source."
Why can monitoring wallets be profitable?
It's not about selling just because you see CZ transfer funds, but about building trading signals based on historical behavior.
For example, if a whale has repeatedly transferred assets to exchanges before a price drop,
when a similar behavior occurs again, bots can react in advance.
The core is not guessing: "What does CZ want to do?" but judging: "After similar behavior happens, how does the market move?"
This is the informational advantage of on-chain trading. What's even more interesting is that the information itself can influence the market.
If everyone believes that when CZ's wallet moves, the market will react, then bots trade ahead, others follow, and eventually, ordinary transfers can cause market volatility.
This is reflexivity: wallet behavior → market expectations → preemptive trading → price changes.
Therefore, what CZ "turns off" is not just a public address, but an information interface observed by the market in real time.
For whales: transparency is trust, but also a cost.
For traders: everyone can see on-chain information; the advantage lies in who can discover earlier and act faster. Market Flash｜Day 2
#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
#SanDisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus
1. Content Analysis
1. BTC
Recently, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range between 63,000 and 64,500, with no major breaking news on the market. The price movement is mainly influenced by macro liquidity and on-exchange capital competition. Currently, US Treasury yields remain high, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have not yet been clearly realized, and overall market liquidity is cautious. The incremental funds for spot ETFs are insufficient, making it difficult to drive the price upward to break through.
This position is a chip concentration hub, with considerable profit-taking and stop-loss pressure piled up above. Prices tend to face resistance and pull back when rising, while bottom-fishing funds support from below. The market has entered a low-volume wait-and-see state, awaiting subsequent economic data to guide the market direction.
2. SanDisk
SanDisk fell back to around $1,730 today, representing a pullback after a strong rally and profit realization. Previously announced medium- to long-term performance targets and shareholder returns have been fully priced in by the market. A large amount of short-term profit-taking has accumulated, with funds concentrating on taking profits and exiting, causing the stock price to decline.
Combined with rotation in the technology sector, funds are shifting toward HBM and AI computing power, while the market begins to worry about supply pressure from subsequent flash memory capacity expansion. This decline is not due to any sudden negative news but is a valuation digestion and market sentiment cooling after a short-term surge.
Risk Warning: The above is only a summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. When the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpasses 5.3%: Global assets are being repriced, who will feel the pain first among RWA, BTC, and MEME coins? The market's most important focus recently might not be the Nasdaq, nor $BTC, but the increasingly steep U.S. long-term bond yield curve. On August 17, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.31%, reclaiming the highest level since 2007; the 10-year Treasury yield also reached around 4.725%. What’s more notable is that this is not an isolated U.S. market fluctuation. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also surged close to a 30-year high, as global long-duration bonds are collectively under pressure. From a hedge fund perspective, I prefer to interpret this as: The "rent" on global capital is rising. Over the past decade or so, the market’s most familiar trade was cheap money. Companies could borrow cheap funds to buy back shares, VCs could tell stories about ten years ahead with extremely low discount rates, the crypto market could value protocols with no revenue at tens of billions of dollars, and MEME coins only needed a narrative, an image, and enough liquidity. But now that the 30-year U.S. Treasury can offer a nominal yield exceeding 5%, all assets must answer a question anew: Why should I take the risk to buy you? This is the truly frightening aspect of the 5.3% yield. This time, the issue is not just the Federal Reserve. Many people see bond yields rising and their first reaction is still "Is the Fed going to raise rates?" That framework is no longer sufficient. Now the long-end rates are facing a moreBrothers, after the Hong Kong stock market closes tomorrow, Xiaomi will deliver its Q2 2026 report card. Market expectation revenue is 108.8 billion yuan, down about 6% year-on-year; Adjusted net profit is 6 billion yuan, possibly down more than 40% year-on-year. Out of four business lines, three are taking hits, only one is holding the line. Lao Mo will break them down one by one. Let's look at phones first—Q1 is already struggling. Q1 phone revenue was 44.3 billion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year, shipments were 33.8 million units, down 19.2%. Gross margin was only 10.1%. It's not that phones aren't selling, but that storage chips have risen too sharply. Samsung and SK Hynix have cut all production capacity to HBM, squeezing general DRAM supply, so manufacturers like Xiaomi can only bear the costs. In Q1, the average price rose to 1,310 yuan, a record high, but high-end accounted for only 23.5%—after years of promotion, volume hasn't picked up. Storage remains high in Q2, so the smartphone segment is likely to continue under pressure. Looking at IoT, revenue is shrinking but profits are still solid. Q1 IoT revenue was 24.7 billion yuan, down 23.7% year-on-year. But gross margin was 25.2%, still up quarter-on-quarter, with overseas IoT revenue hitting a new high. Q2 is the last quarter to benefit from subsidies and a low base effect, so things may improve in the second half, but Q2 still has to be tough. Cars are the only line that can still tell stories. Q1 delivered 80,856 vehicles, revenue 19 billion yuan. Yesterday, the SU7 series surpassed 500,000 cumulative deliveries, taking only 28.5 months from launch to now. The annual delivery target is 550,000 units, with about 180,000 completed in the first halfAs market fear quietly climbed from a freezing point of 31 to 41, the undercurrents of funds during the Asian session were repricing risk. In a statistical vacuum period when high-frequency derivatives data (such as positions held and liquidated online) are currently in a statistical gap, we examine this silent game by resonating with sentiment indices and spot trading volume. 📌 ══════════════ [Fear and Greed Index] 41 (Fear) | A significant rebound from the previous 31, sentiment is recovering 📌. [Total Market Cap] $2.199 trillion | 24h +2.57% 📌 [Total Market Volume] $74.246 billion | 24h +6.41% 📌 【$BTC Price】$64,235 | 24h +1.88% | 7D -0.64% 📌 [$BTC Market Share] 58.34% | Clear 📌 Trend of Funds Hending and Clustering [$ETH Price] $1,901 | 24h +0.66% | 7D +0.2% ══════════════ From the cross-verification of sentiment and volume-price structure, the current market is showing a typical "weak recovery" characteristic. The anti-corruption index rebounded from 31 to 41, indicating that extreme panic has been released, but 41 remains in the fear zone, indicating that off-exchange funds have not experienced FOMO (fear of missing out) rushing to buy shares. A more critical divergence signal appeared in the gap between trading volume and market cap growth. Total market trading volume increased by 6.41%, but total market capitalization only grew by 2.5%.Anatoly Yakovenko has proposed a layered vision for the future of tokenized assets. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko stated that tokenized assets do not need to be a single "trusted commodity," noting that L1 tokens, RWAs (real-world assets), and meme coins can be coordinated around the least controversial fork. Core Viewpoint: Trust can be layered, not concentrated on a single asset. Yakovenko's statement points to a viewpoint: different types of tokenized assets have different requirements for "trust." RWA (Real-World Assets): Needs to be integrated with off-chain legal and compliance frameworks, and needs to identify issuers, custodians, etc. L1 tokens (such as SOL, ETH): Their trust is rooted in the network's own consensus mechanism, not endorsed by external assets. Meme coins: Driven more by community consensus, the trust foundation is not on the same level as RWA or L1 tokens. Therefore, he believes a unified "trust commodity" is not needed to cover all types of tokenized assets. Different types of assets can be coordinated according to their needs, choosing the least controversial fork or infrastructure. This perspective differs from the mainstream narrative that "all assets will eventually be tokenized on a single chain," focusing more on providing choices for different assets rather than enforcing unification. Insights for the crypto ecosystem: Yakovenko's perspective points to a development direction: the future crypto ecosystem may not be dominated by a single chain controlling all assets#BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying rebound? #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 #Oil prices and US Treasuries both under pressure, US stock sectors rotate sharply, crypto market still stuck in a deadlock🚨
Oil prices and Treasury yields are both looking bleak, with the S&P and Nasdaq overall weak, and limited bullish sentiment in the broader market.
However, funds have not exited the AI sector; they are just rotating within it. The storage sector is heating up again, with SNDK continuing to surge, driving MU, WDC, and STX to strengthen collectively. Capital is also entering optical modules and equipment segments to support.
Major AI stocks remain in sideways consolidation, while software stocks, which were previously overvalued, are undergoing a correction to digest gains.
Compared to the US stock sector trends, the crypto market’s situation looks somewhat awkward.
US stocks hype real earnings expectations driven by long-term contracts and supply shortages, while $BTC still hasn’t chosen a clear direction.
When old altcoins rally slightly, a large amount of selling pressure from unlocking positions emerges, making it difficult to sustain a lasting trend.
At this stage, remember:
As long as BTC does not break out of the consolidation pattern, do not leverage old altcoins to prop up the market; the risk-reward ratio is very poor.
$BTC#ETFThe capital logic of $SOL is changing: after ETF capital inflow, the next step is to watch "traditional assets on-chain"
Recently, mainstream coin capital has clearly diverged. The SOL-related ETF showed outstanding capital inflow performance last week, with a single-day net inflow of about $8.8 million on August 10, hitting a nearly 3-month high.
What is more noteworthy is that the narrative of SOL is no longer just MEME.
Bitwise is researching the on-chain tokenization of its Solana staking ETF shares; meanwhile, tokenized stocks, ETFs, and other traditional assets are also continuously expanding.
This means that in the future, to judge SOL's strength, you can look at three indicators:
SOL/BTC relative strength, stablecoin/RWA scale, and real on-chain transaction volume.
If SOL/$BTC continues to rise while BTC is sideways, it indicates that capital is indeed actively choosing SOL; if BTC drops slightly and SOL experiences a larger pullback, it is still just high Beta following.
Hot topics can create price increases, but sustained real capital flow determines how far the market can go.
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 #BTC trading shrinks, can ETF buying recover? BTC and ETH trading volumes continue to shrink, market volatility narrows, and the entire market is in a wait-and-see mode, all waiting for a core driver to break the range.
The underlying logic of the two has clearly diverged:
$BTC is highly tied to macro liquidity, gaining institutional allocation through scarcity narrative; funds generally lean defensive and are unwilling to actively attack without clear signals.
$ETH relies on public chain infrastructure for value reassessment, but every rebound faces selling pressure; in the short term, it can mostly only serve as a defensive position, making it difficult to have an independent strong rally.
Local risk appetite on the board has slightly increased, with sector differentiation widening:
✅ Resilient assets: OKB, ADA, showing strong resilience amid market fluctuations.
⚠️ Weaker coins: AVAX, FIL, $WLD, basically passively following the market, lacking their own positive catalysts, making independent rallies difficult.
In the medium to long term, the market is evolving from Bitcoin dominance to a BTC+ETH dual-driven pattern.
But whether this pattern can stabilize depends on two hard conditions: continuous inflow of spot ETF funds + a shift in macro liquidity.
Regulatory risks still hang overhead; the CLARITY Act vote remains undecided, SEC regulatory rules have not been implemented, continuously suppressing market confidence to go long.
📌 Market summary
Currently, it is a standard waiting window; mainstream coins are shrinking and tugging, the vast majority of altcoins lack independent narratives and are completely dependent on the overall market environment.
Before major news breaks, avoid heavy bets on one-sided directions, keep positions flexible, and focus closely on ETF fund flows and macro signals.
$BTC $ETHIf we only look at the market, the recent crypto market has actually been a bit boring. As of August 18, $BTC is still oscillating repeatedly around $63,000, and $ETH has not shown any particularly strong independent movement. The market has not experienced the familiar "everything rising" phenomenon, nor has there been a broad expansion of risk appetite. But the more it is this kind of phase, the more worth it is to see where the funds are moving. Because what really determines the difference in returns in a bull market is often not whether you caught a certain surge, but whether you understood in advance what the next round of funds is willing to give higher valuations to. Recently, I have been paying more and more attention to one direction: RWA. Not because this term is new, but because it is gradually shifting from "storytelling" to "real money coming in." Currently, the scale of on-chain RWA has exceeded $30 billion, mainly backed not by air assets, but by U.S. Treasury bonds, money market funds, private credit, stocks, and other traditional financial assets. The biggest change in this matter is: Previously, the industry discussion about RWA was more about "what can be put on-chain." Now the discussion has started to be: After going on-chain, who settles? Who provides liquidity? Who provides collateral? Who lends? Who takes the fees? This is what I believe is the real signal that RWA is entering its second stage. In the past market cycle, the most familiar capital flow path was: $BTC rises → $ETH rises → mainstream altcoins rise → small coins rise → Meme coins everywhere. But the next round of capital rotation is different$MSTR This Q2 report cannot be judged solely by the net loss of $8.22 billion, nor by the continued increase in holdings. A more accurate view is: the software business is still recovering moderately, but the core of the market's pricing for Strategy is no longer a corporate analytics software company, but a capital structure centered around $BTC reserves, equity financing, preferred shares, and convertible bonds. Looking at core data, Q2 total revenue was $122.4 million, up 6.9% year-on-year; Among them, subscription service revenue was $62.86 million, up 54.0% year-on-year, making it the most active segment in the software business. Product licensing revenue and product support revenue fell by 48.9% and 22.7% respectively, indicating that traditional licensing and maintenance revenue still face pressure. Gross profit was $81.55 million, with gross margin dropping from 68.8% in the same period last year to 66.6%. Looking at the software business alone, this isn't a particularly poor financial report, but it's not exactly booming either. Subscription growth proves that the company's transition to a subscription model is still underway, though the scale is not yet sufficient to fully offset the decline in traditional business. Book losses mainly come from changes in Bitcoin's fair value. The most notable figures this quarter are $8.331 billion in operating loss and $8.22 billion in net loss, but $8.315 billion of this comes from unrealized losses in digital assets. This is not a cash quarterly operating loss, but rather a price drop during the reporting period that is reflected in the income statement using fair value measurement rulesI am Brother Ci. Last night, I called a short on SanDisk above 1800, betting all my reputation. Looking back today, both the position and direction have been fully validated.
SanDisk rebounded from 993 all the way above 1800, with a short-term increase of over 80%. Last night, the price briefly broke through 1800, reaching a high of about 1835 intraday. I directly entered in batches above 1800, and my live short positions are already held.
Why dare I bet my reputation on shorting? Technically, the 4-hour RSI surged to 89, severely overbought; MACD shows a high-level bearish divergence; the price formed a double top near 1663 with equal highs, accompanied by huge volume followed by a sharp decline in volume. Above 1800 is an extreme sentiment zone, reaching the limit of the rebound.
Fundamentally, SanDisk soared from $40 to $2354, with market cap expanding over 50 times. Two-thirds of Q2 earnings growth relied on price increases, while consumer business continues to shrink. SK Hynix's new NAND capacity is on the way, and the signal of a cycle peak is very clear.
On the capital side, smart money is retreating. Renaissance Technologies cut its SanDisk holdings by over 99%, and Appaloosa completely cleared about 280,000 shares. Institutions are exiting, you are chasing; judge for yourself who is right or wrong.
Shorting above 1800 is not chasing a short but sniping after the rebound is in place. Last night, I bet all my reputation calling a short because I am convinced this position is the emotional limit of this rebound. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it carefully. #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC $ETH $SNDK $AMD holds over ten billion dollars in liquidity on its books, yet it has just completed its largest-ever bond issuance of $4.75 billion, proactively extending its debt maturity.
The interest rates on four bonds with different maturities range from 4.6% to 5.5%, with the longest maturity spread narrowing to 0.9 percentage points over the benchmark, showing very strong demand in the primary market.
Capital expenditures rose to $1.2 billion in the first half of this year, driven by the doubling growth of the data center business and the resulting demand for computing power deployment, prompting management to lock in medium- to long-term funding reserves during a low spread window.
The ample cash on hand combined with this round of low-cost financing allows the company to proactively build a liquidity moat to cope with industry cycle fluctuations without passively diluting equity liquidity.
If subsequent high capital expenditures can be successfully converted into operating cash flow inflows, the solid liquidity buffer will support a continued upward shift in valuation levels, while buybacks or further capital structure optimization will be confirmation signals of strength.
If the pace of converting computing power investments into cash flow slows, the rapidly rising total debt scale and interest expenses will directly suppress future free cash flow levels when industry conditions decline.
As the market begins to reassess the AI computing power monetization cycle, the speed of cash burn and changes in gross margin will directly test the actual capital efficiency of this excess bond issuance.
A variable to continuously monitor in future earnings reports is the degree of matching between free cash flow and capital expenditure growth.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行：融资47.5亿美元What matters most in Xiaomi's financial report is no longer how well its phones are selling
but whether it can simultaneously manage three completely different businesses
Phones are the foundation, IoT reflects ecosystem stickiness, and cars and AI represent valuation flexibility. The problem is, the profit structures, inventory pressures, and capital expenditures of these three lines are completely different. Phones compete on supply chain and channels, cars compete on delivery and after-sales, AI competes on investment and long-term vision
I think Xiaomi's biggest challenge now is that the market wants it to grow like a tech stock, yet views its profit margins through the lens of manufacturing
If cars sell well but burn cash rapidly, the stock price might not be comfortable; if phones are stable but lack surprises, the market will find it unexciting. A truly good financial report is not about one line booming, but proving that Lei Jun's "people, cars, home ecosystem" is not just a PPT synergy
The financial report will tell the market: is Xiaomi expanding its boundaries or just spreading itself thin
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ Galaxy Research data shows that in Q2 2026, DeFi outstanding loans decreased by 27.61% quarter-over-quarter, falling to $20.43 billion; overall crypto asset collateralized lending dropped by 16.78%, and futures open interest fell to $103.2 billion, with ETH OI declining by 26.31%.
The key is not just "leverage reduction," but a change in risk-off approach: currently, it resembles a gradual contraction without the chain liquidations seen in 2022. Next, attention should be on whether lending utilization, stablecoin liquidity, and liquidation discounts stabilize simultaneously.
Leverage decline can reduce systemic vulnerability, but if spot demand does not return, it cannot be directly taken as a bottom signal. SpaceX being heavily held in Harvard's 13F filings is easily misread as a single sentence: "Smart money has arrived."
But 13F disclosures are naturally delayed; they show positions at the end of a past quarter, not today's trading actions. What’s truly worth watching is that assets like SpaceX, which used to circulate only in private equity circles, are now being broken down by the public market into tradable, comparable, and trackable instruments.
I think this is more important than a single holding.
Previously, when people bought SpaceX, they were buying Musk, Starlink, launch capabilities, defense contracts, and distant Mars stories. Now it’s compressed into a trading vehicle like SPCX, allowing investors to reprice it daily.
This brings liquidity but also short-sightedness.
Once a myth goes public, it no longer lives on imagination alone.
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 When BTC trading volume shrinks, the most common illusion arises
Everyone thinks the market is stable, but in reality, no one is willing to make the first move
Whether ETF buying can pick up again is certainly important, but what I care more about is that after the volume thins out, the price becomes more sensitive to capital flows. Previously, a single buy order was just a ripple on the surface; now it can directly drive sentiment up; conversely, even a small selling pressure can be amplified
This is the most annoying aspect of a low-volume environment
It doesn't tell you the direction, it only makes every direction more exaggerated. ETFs are slow money and can provide bottom support; but if spot trading volume can't keep up, relying solely on ETFs to restore confidence makes the market prone to "looking like someone is buying, but actually lacking depth"
BTC is not short of stories now
What’s missing is sustained, solid buying that doesn’t require daily slogans
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 SanDisk's most aggressive narrative right now isn't about strong AI storage demand
It's about making the market believe that "storage cycles can be tamed by contracts"
The key points in Investor Day are actually long-term agreements, capacity locking, and margin targets. The company presented a very attractive outlook for revenue growth, gross margin, and cash returns over the next few years, and the stock price has responded accordingly. But I would be a bit more cautious: historically, the storage industry is best at talking stability at peak cycles, and only when supply truly comes out do prices reveal who holds the power
Long-term agreements can indeed reduce volatility, but they are not magic. Whether customers will renew, whether prices can hold, and whether AI demand will shift from hoarding to price pressure—these are the things to watch next
What you're buying now isn't just a financial report, but whether the market is willing to believe SanDisk has transformed from a cyclical stock into a quasi-infrastructure stock
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
The most noteworthy part of Xiaomi's Q2 is not its phones, but its cars. Phone sales are shrinking, while car sales are climbing; the market's valuation logic for Xiaomi is shifting from "phone company" to "car company."
Phone business: In Q2, shipments were 31.2 million units, down 26% year-over-year, with ASP rising to ¥1340, a record high. However, rising storage prices squeezed gross margins, dropping from 11.5% to 8.2%. The worst of the costs may be behind, as TrendForce forecasts Q3 DRAM/NAND contract price increases to narrow to 13%-18% and 10%-15% quarter-over-quarter.
Car business: Q2 deliveries reached 104,000 vehicles, with losses narrowing. The "Pengcheng" SUV will launch in September, with a starting pre-sale price of ¥259,900. Cars are the core reason the market assigns a higher valuation.
Internet services: Quarterly revenue was ¥9.2 billion, with a gross margin of 75.2%. Although the volume is not large, it is stable and forms the group's foundation.
Q2 may have been Xiaomi's toughest quarter, but it also serves as a confirmation window that "the worst is behind." The key is whether car deliveries in the second half of the year can meet expectations and whether the cost inflection point will truly arrive.