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$BTC $ETH 1. The Market Landscape in 2026 2026 is a year of adjustment after the halving; the traditional four-year halving cycle effect weakens, and the market has shifted from retail dominance to being driven by institutions plus macro liquidity. It is no longer a simple "halving equals a surge" scenario. The Federal Reserve interest rates, ETF funds, and global risk appetite have become the core pricing factors. Current market status: • BTC is repeatedly bottoming out in the 60,000–65,000 range, with shrinking volume, a stalemate between bulls and bears, and no clear trend. • Funds are clearly concentrated in the leading BTC and ETH, with altcoins showing severe divergence; most small tokens suffer liquidity exhaustion, and the strong get stronger. • Market sentiment is cautious, with many retail investors at a floating loss; some panic and exit, while others persist with dollar-cost averaging. 2. Four Core Influencing Variables 1. Federal Reserve Interest Rates (the biggest variable) The pace of rate cuts in 2026 will be volatile, and recurring inflation will delay rate cut expectations. In a high-interest-rate environment, Bitcoin yields no interest, so the opportunity cost of holding it is high, which suppresses the market; only when liquidity eases will a true upward window open. News will only cause short-term spikes and is unlikely to change the long-term cycle. 2. ETF Institutional Funds ETF funds will flow in and out repeatedly; institutions will also trade in waves. ETFs should not be considered a bottom signal. Institutions will slowly accumulate at lows and realize profits during rebounds. Do not simply equate fund inflows with a major rally. 3. Change in Cycle Logic In the past, the halving drove the market; in 2026, the supply dividend from halving is hedged by institutional funds. The bottom is no longer a single price point🚗 Xiaomi Earnings Preview — Phones Dragging, Cars Holding the Bottom
Phone pressure is significant — Q2 shipments are expected to be 31.2 million units, down over 26% year-on-year, with gross margin dropping to 8.5%.
AIoT supported by promotions — revenue returns to 30 billion, but gross margin falls back to 20%.
Cars are the highlight — Q2 revenue expected at 26.2 billion (up 23% YoY), gross margin 20.6%, losses narrowing rapidly. SU7 cumulative deliveries reach 500,000 units, topping sales charts for 4 consecutive months.
Pengcheng N70/N909 to be released monthly; extended-range track is the real catalyst.
Phones under pressure, cars holding the bottom. As long as cars don’t collapse, Xiaomi’s earnings won’t look bad.
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ $META is in a long-short condition simulation window after a 30% pullback from its high. The current P/E ratio is 21.38, PEG has dropped to 0.88, and there is $90.3 billion in cash buffering capital expenditure concerns. The resilience of the advertising fundamentals and accelerated monetization of Reels will trigger an upward repair channel. Stable macro liquidity can maintain chip oscillation in the $550-$570 range. If the AI infrastructure return cycle extends beyond expectations, the downside break risk will be confirmed accordingly.
#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注📝 一则来自越南市场的帖子，最近在不少加密社区里流传开来，读起来颇有几分黑色幽默的味道。那位交易者前一秒刚发布观点，后一秒盘面便应声下跌，于是他忍不住自嘲一句——难道连庄家都盯着我的文章看，我这反向指标的名号算是坐实了。当然，这种说法更多是玩笑，可如果把它当作一个切口，去观察加密市场里普遍存在的心态波动，你会发现这个故事其实很有代表性。 🧠 先说下跌这件事。每个人都经历过类似的瞬间：当你把自己的判断公开输出之后，行情突然掉头，那种感觉就好像有一只无形的眼睛，躲在屏幕另一端静静等着你出手。但冷静下来想一想，市场每天的波动，是由无数订单、资金流向、宏观消息以及衍生品仓位共同决定的。任何一条个人观点，都不具备逆转行情的力量。之所以会产生“一发文就暴跌”的错觉，更多是记忆选择性偏差在起作用——上涨的时刻被大脑自动归档进“理所当然”，而下跌的瞬间却被反复强化。评论区里附和的声浪越大，这种错觉就越是真实。若你仔细观察，会发现类似的情绪叙事在每一轮震荡市里都会循环上演，主角换了，剧本却没变。 💰 再看利润一侧，这也是帖子里最耐人寻味的部分。文章提到，发帖之后浮盈又增加了2000u，累计浮盈已接Six Deadly Sins of Hong Kong Stocks You Didn't Know:
1. The Harshest Dividend Tax
H-shares 20%, Red Chips up to 28%
A-shares are tax-exempt if held for over a year
The same company, but long-term holding through Stock Connect in Hong Kong loses 20-30%
This is a key reason for the AH discount
2. Ridiculously High Trading Costs
Actual round-trip cost 0.3%-0.6% (A-shares less than 0.1%)
Trading 20 times a year on 1 million costs 60,000 more just in fees
Over 10 years, that's over 600,000 difference
3. Hong Kong Government Highly Dependent on Stamp Duty
Collected 51.8 billion in fiscal year 2024/25, accounting for 10.4% of operating revenue
Cutting taxes means the government is cutting its own income, so reform motivation is naturally low
4. Overly Developed Short Selling Mechanism
No price limits, full set of tools
When foreign capital releases a short report, a single-day plunge of 20-30% is common
5. IPOs Drain the Market Infinitely
In 2025, fundraising ranked first globally, withdrawing about 1.2 billion daily from the market
The pool only drains without replenishment, turning many small-cap stocks into zombie stocks
6. Stock Connect is the Lifeline of Liquidity
Southbound funds account for nearly half of the turnover
If a stock is removed from the list = liquidity instantly drops to zero
These six sins reinforce each other, creating a vicious cycle.
After reading this, do you still dare to casually buy Hong Kong stocks? Not sure how long the $ETH support at 1890 will hold. It's still fluctuating back and forth. If it breaks the support, what should the target be? Will it be like the market movement at the end of July and beginning of August? #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit a new high since 2007, with long-term rates rising sharply. The market is repricing the macro environment to reflect "high interest rates persisting longer."
Multiple factors are converging behind this: inflation is falling but still not meeting targets, the U.S. fiscal deficit is causing a massive supply of Treasuries, combined with large-scale bond issuance by tech companies financing AI infrastructure. The imbalance in supply and demand for long-duration bonds is pushing up the term risk premium. Even if the benchmark rate remains unchanged, rising long-term bonds effectively tighten global liquidity passively.
The impact on the crypto market is very direct. Rising risk-free yields increase the opportunity cost of zero-cash-flow assets like Bitcoin, suppressing institutional risk appetite and indirectly putting outflow pressure on ETF funds. In a high interest rate environment, market leverage costs rise, making deleveraging volatility more likely.
However, it is important to distinguish that rising yields do not immediately mean a sharp drop in coin prices. If the rise is driven by inflation concerns, BTC gains some hedging properties; if driven by economic resilience, the pressure on risk assets is stronger.
Personal view: The new high in long-term bonds is an important macro warning—do not ignore liquidity constraints. Spot positions can retain a base holding, but leverage must be controlled in contracts. Going forward, focus on the turning point of U.S. Treasuries and ETF fund flows. Without macroeconomic improvement, a large-scale rally is unlikely to start easily.1. Macroeconomic and Financial Sector: Global Monetary Policy and Bond Market Signals
- Japan's 10-Year Government Bond Yield Continues to Rise
As the world's largest net creditor nation, Japan's 10-year government bond yield serves as a key anchor in the global bond market. The sustained rise in yields primarily reflects the market's growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will end negative interest rates and tighten monetary policy. This shift will directly impact global capital flows: rising domestic bond yields in Japan will attract global capital back to Japan, creating short-term liquidity pressure on global risk assets (including U.S. stocks and emerging market assets), while also causing phased fluctuations in the yen exchange rate.
- UBS Bullish on U.S. Stocks, Focus on Nvidia and Jackson Hole in Late August
UBS's strategic view clarifies the two main drivers of the current U.S. stock market: first, the tech growth theme led by AI chip leader Nvidia, with the ongoing surge in AI computing power demand as the core support for U.S. tech stocks; second, the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole meeting, which serves as a global central bank policy barometer, where interest rate policy signals will directly determine the short-term trajectory of U.S. stocks. This perspective also reflects the market's core logic: profit expectations in the AI industry and the Fed's monetary easing expectations are the two main pillars supporting U.S. stocks.
2. AI Technology Sector: Explosive Growth Across the Entire Industry Chain
This update covers the full AI industry chain from large models and computing chips to cutting-edge applications, highlighting the explosive growth trend in the AI sector:
- Anthropic's Annualized Revenue Surpasses $65 Billion Pre-IPO
Anthropic, a core competitor to OpenAI, achieved $65 billion in annualized revenue before its IPO, far exceeding market expectations. This data directly proves the strong commercialization capability of the AI large model track. Demand for enterprise-level AI services is rapidly releasing, providing strong valuation support for AI public companies and further driving global AI industry investment and financing enthusiasm.
- ARK Invest Purchases $22.8 Million in Nvidia Stock
ARK Fund, focused on innovative technology, continues to increase its holdings in Nvidia. Despite Nvidia's stock price having experienced significant gains, institutional investors maintain a long-term positive outlook. This move reflects the market's long-term confidence in the AI computing power track: global AI computing demand continues to grow, and Nvidia, as the absolute leader in AI chips, retains its long-term growth logic, with institutional funds continuously positioning in core AI assets.
- Sisun Technology Completes Tens of Millions RMB Seed Round Financing
Sisun Technology is an AI-driven ultrasound brain-computer interface company. Completing the seed round financing indicates that capital is beginning to deploy in the frontier AI+brain science track. Brain-computer interfaces, as the next generation of human-computer interaction technology, combined with AI and ultrasound technology, are expected to achieve disruptive breakthroughs in medical and human-computer interaction fields. Early-stage investment and financing enthusiasm in domestic frontier technology tracks continues to rise.
3. Chip Industry: Industrial Autonomy Amid Global Geopolitical Competition
- South Korea Denies Listing Chips as First Investment Candidate Against the U.S.
South Korea is a core country in global chip manufacturing, with Samsung and SK Hynix holding key positions in global memory chips and advanced process chips. South Korea's official denial aims to maintain autonomy in the chip industry and avoid excessive binding to the U.S. in the global chip supply chain. The global chip industry has become a core arena for geopolitical competition, with countries vying for supply chain dominance. South Korea's stance reflects the core trend of "autonomous and controllable" in the global chip industry.
4. Cryptocurrency Sector: Cash Flow Management in the Mining Industry
- Riot Platforms Sold 9,665 BTC in the First Half of the Year, Totaling $732.46 Million
Riot Platforms is one of North America's largest Bitcoin mining companies. It sold a large amount of BTC concentrated in the first half of the year, a routine cash flow management operation in the mining industry: mining companies need to sell BTC to cover operating costs, mining equipment investments, debt repayments, etc. The average selling price per BTC was about $75,700, consistent with the current Bitcoin market price level. This operation also reflects the current state of the Bitcoin mining industry: selling pressure from mining companies can impact BTC's short-term price, while Bitcoin price volatility directly determines the mining industry's profitability.📈 Overnight surge followed by a pullback, 1800 is the stage ceiling
Overnight, SanDisk hit an intraday high of 1827 but closed down to 1727, with gains shrinking from 10% to 8%, and continued to fall 3% after hours.
This confirms the previous judgment — the 9.3 billion agreement can push the price up to around 1800 at most, beyond that it won't hold.
The surge and pullback is the best proof — 1827 was the peak of sentiment, but once the market sobered up, it realized — the 9.3 billion contract is not that big in the AI storage wave; Micron and SK Hynix's single-quarter HBM revenue nearly matches this figure — plus profit-taking at high levels, prices above 1800 simply can't hold.
1800 has become a short-term ceiling, most likely oscillating between 1700-1800 to digest the trapped positions from the overnight surge — the good news is the long-term agreement does lock in some demand, the bad news is the short-term narrative has already been fully priced in.
9.3 billion can't push it to 2000, everything above 1800 is just sentiment. Don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback. 📊
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 ⚡Breaking Alert! The 30-year US Treasury yield hits an 18-year record, triggering a market-wide asset valuation reset!
Attention everyone! The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged violently to the 5.29%-5.32% range, reaching the highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized around 4.72%. The long-term US Treasury yield acts as the gravitational center for global asset valuations. This continuous rise means that the valuation benchmarks for all risk assets must be reassessed!
Multiple bearish factors have converged to fuel this long-term rate spike. The total US debt keeps expanding, with ongoing increases in long-term government bond supply; inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Additionally, in mid-June, multiple countries including Japan and the UK simultaneously reduced their US Treasury holdings, causing overseas buying power to shrink. Beyond that, the AI sector’s massive fundraising has caused a surge in investment-grade bond supply, with various funds competing for long-term capital, further intensifying upward pressure on long-term yields.
Focusing on $BTC, the rising long-term yields equate to a continuous increase in risk-free returns, naturally cooling appetite for risk assets like crypto. My outlook on the key levels of Bitcoin at 65000 and ETH at 1950 remains unchanged. However, if US Treasury yields continue to climb, the timeline for these two coins to break upward will be extended. The overall trend has not reversed; it’s just that the market’s oscillation will become more grueling and testing.
A reminder to all traders: vigilance is essential now. The rise in long-term yields is the biggest macro variable hanging over the market. It cannot solely determine BTC’s final direction but will directly influence the pace and scale of incremental capital inflows. Avoid heavy bets on the market; keep positions within a comfortable holding range. Patiently wait for signs of stabilization in long-term yields before considering increasing your positions. Wishing everyone smooth trading!
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $BTC $ETH $SNDK 交易所余额持续走低，散户纷纷把币提到自己的钱包里，链上数据看起来一片“锁仓”景象。但奇怪的是，BTC和ETH的价格并没有因此拔地而起，反而在原地反复震荡。很多人开始困惑：不是都说交易所余额下降是牛市前兆吗？怎么行情迟迟不启动？这背后其实藏着一个常见的认知误区，也恰恰是市场情绪与资金逻辑的微妙博弈点。 先看数据背后的直观逻辑。交易所余额减少，意味着有大量代币从交易平台被提走，转入冷钱包或私人地址。通常这种动作被解读为持仓者“不想卖”，抛压自然减轻。从供需关系上看，卖盘减少确实能支撑价格，理论上有利于底部巩固。但问题在于，支撑并不等于推升，价格若要上行，还需要有人愿意用真金白银主动买入。换句话说，锁仓只解决了“跌不动”的问题，却无法解决“涨不起”的困境。 以BTC为例，近期确实有可观数量的比特币持续流出交易所，这些筹码大多被现货ETF、上市公司和长期巨鲸吸纳。这部分资金或机构的特征是持仓周期长，不会因为短期价格波动而轻易交出筹码。正因为如此，尽管市场偶有回调，比特币的底部韧性显得相当强，很难出现以往那种连环爆仓引发的深度下跌。这种“跌不透”的格局，让许多短线交易者感到既安全又无聊，市场情绪AI × Crypto: The Next Rotation May Be Infrastructure, Not Hype The current Crypto market does not yet show capital flowing back into all Altcoins. $BTC remains around the 63,000–64,000 USD range, while $ETH is trying to hold the 1,900 USD level. Recent data shows institutional capital still favors large assets; Bitcoin ETFs recorded about 853 million USD in net inflows in the most recently reported week, but BTC price remains relatively sideways. This indicates liquidity is being selectively allocated rather than broadly distributed 📢 The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to a new high since 2007! If rates don't drop soon, we're really in trouble
5.29%! The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield is also at 4.72%.
This is an extremely dangerous signal—what happened after 2007? The 2008 financial crisis.
The reason long-term yields are soaring so high is clear—the US debt scale is skyrocketing, massive issuance of long-term bonds, inflation stubbornly above 2%, the AI funding boom is draining money into the bond market, and even foreign buyers are reducing holdings—supply is exploding, demand is shrinking, so yields can only go up.
If rates don't drop soon, a collapse is inevitable. Who will save my crypto circle then?
Japanese government bonds are being sold off simultaneously, indicating this is not just a US problem; global long-term bonds are being crushed. With yields this high, government financing costs soar, corporate debt becomes unserviceable, and household mortgages explode—real economy can't hold, asset prices can't hold either. US stocks, gold, and BTC are all under pressure.
Short-term rates depend on the Fed, long-term rates depend on the market. The market is already shouting at 5.29%—if rates don't drop, I'll die to show you.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.3%, reaching its highest level since 2007. This is not just about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but about the market beginning to reprice the fiscal risks of the United States.
US debt is approaching $40 trillion, with the fiscal deficit still high, requiring the issuance of more government bonds; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is no longer buying on a large scale, and buyers like Japan, the UK, and China are reducing their holdings. AI infrastructure financing is also competing for funds. With increased bond supply and insufficient demand, the only way to attract buyers is by lowering prices and raising yields. Inflation has yet to return to 2%, which also leads investors to demand higher long-term compensation.
This does not mean the US will default immediately, but to continue borrowing, it must pay higher interest. The real danger is forming a vicious cycle: expanding deficits, increased bond issuance, rising interest rates, higher interest expenses, ultimately further pushing up the deficit.
If long-term yields remain high, corporate financing, mortgage, and government debt costs will rise, with high-valuation sectors of the US stock market bearing the brunt first; gold and BTC are suppressed short-term by real interest rates but may benefit long-term from market concerns over the dollar's credit and fiscal sustainability.
There are basically three solutions: cutting spending or raising taxes, which comes at the cost of economic pressure; the Federal Reserve cutting rates or restarting bond purchases, which risks inflation and a weaker dollar; or relying on AI to improve productivity, which is the healthiest but also the slowest.
Therefore, what deserves more attention than when the Federal Reserve will cut rates next is whether the US can control its fiscal deficit and whether the market is willing to continue absorbing the ever-increasing long-term US debt. Don't be fooled by a single short squeeze wick! The real boss crushing the crypto market has never been intraday volatility.
$BTC
Tonight, Bitcoin pulled back above 64000 overnight, and many people asked me: Has the trend completely reversed? Should I immediately flip and chase longs?
I didn't move at all.
Most people only focus on that tempting rebound candlestick on the chart, completely ignoring the macro forces truly controlling the overall situation:
Tonight, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged directly to 5.31%, hitting a 19-year high.
This is the top-tier risk control signal in the current market, the invisible hand pressing down on all high-valuation risky assets.
Many people misunderstand the primary and secondary factors in trading:
The big trend is determined by interest rate levels, not candlestick ripples.
The sustained high US Treasury yields mean global risk-free rates remain elevated, asset discount rates are passively raised, and overall market liquidity continues to tighten. The valuation ceiling for high-valuation assets is firmly pressed down; there is simply no macro environment for a sustained bull run.
The crypto market is the most sensitive, most lagging, and least price-setting link in the global risk asset chain.
Short-term capital sweeps and violent rebounds are just the existing market funds' self-rescue short squeezes and cleansing of short positions. Single rounds of long-short turnover cannot reverse the macro tightening backdrop.
This short-term rebound looks fierce but is actually a typical emotional trap.
In a high interest rate and liquidity contraction environment, every spike is a very low cost-performance trap to chase longs.
Here, the current trading truth must be made clear:
1. Shorts being temporarily swept is just normal consolidation during oscillation, not a trend reversal;
2. Local market warming is "ripples," while high US Treasury yields are the "water level";
3. Long-term survival in trading depends on cycle water levels, not being misled by short-term ripples.
Chasing longs at this position is the worst risk-reward and the least profitable gamble.
Without macro incremental funds as a backstop, all short squeeze rallies detached from fundamentals will eventually return to structure and trend.
Stay true to your original intention, don't sway with emotions,
See through the macro to avoid being harvested by short-term false rallies.
#BTC #CryptoMacro #USTreasuryYields #MarketReview #TradingAwareness #TrendJudgment
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Analysis report of $PIEVERSE and whether it will experience a pump-and-dump by whales like $LAB and $KAITO? Does it have its own real project?
Pieverse initially focused on:
* Web3 payment and compliance infrastructure
* AI Agent (intelligent agent)
* Payment protocol between agents (A2A Commerce)
* On-chain invoices, receipts, timestamp proofs
* AI Agent wallet system
Later gradually shifted to:
* AI Agent Runtime
* Agent wallet
* Agent skill store
* Agent-to-Agent economic system
The official description is to build an "AI Agent version of Alipay + app store + payment network."
Is there a real product?
Currently confirmed:
1. Official website and product pages
The official showcases:
* Purr-Fect Claw Agent
* Agent Skill Store
* A2A Commerce Protocol
* x402b payment protocol
These product interfaces and documents have been made public.
2. Developer documentation
The official release includes:
* OpenAPI
* MCP interface
* Agent Card
* Developer Docs
This indicates the team has done actual development, not just PPT presentations.
3. GitHub
CertiK monitoring page shows the existence of a development repository:
* Pieverse-Eng
Indicating ongoing code maintenance.
Has it been recognized by exchanges?
Found:
* KuCoin listing
* XT listing
* Korean market data shows circulation on multiple trading platforms
Usually, large exchanges conduct some due diligence before listing. While this doesn't guarantee quality, it is more credible than purely grassroots projects.
Risk points
1. Heavy AI narrative
Many current features:
* Agent wallet
* Agent marketplace
* Agent economy
Are still in early stages.
Many users buy based on:
AI Agent future expectations
rather than current revenue.
2. Team transparency is average
CertiK data shows:
* Team Verification: unverified
* CertiK KYC: none
* Bug Bounty: none
For a mid-cap project, this is not outstanding.
3. Heavy marketing
Official promotions mention:
* Forbes coverage
* CoinDesk reports
* Decrypt reports
But note:
Many Web3 projects gain media exposure through PR releases.
Media coverage ≠ actual adoption.
Is there suspicion of whale manipulation?
From the perspective of frequently monitored projects like LAB, BEAT, BICO:
Pieverse seems more like:
Project-driven + market maker operations
rather than pure whale pump-and-dump.
But there are several observation signals:
Health status
* Has products
* Has development
* Has exchange listings
* Has whitepaper
* Has ongoing operations
This is clearly better than many MEME and air AI coins.
Be cautious if:
* Token holding addresses are highly concentrated
* Large unlocks are approaching
* Volume surges but on-chain users do not increase
* Continuous volume contraction with price rises
Then there is a risk of market maker manipulation and dumping.
Based solely on the project itself, it cannot yet be directly classified as a pure pump-and-dump model like LAB.Long-term US borrowing costs just broke a 19-year ceiling.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, its highest since 2007. Last week’s $25B auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest 30-year auction yield since 2001.
This is bigger than the next Fed decision. The curve is bear-steepening, with shorter-dated yields relatively steadier while the long end sells off. That points to a repricing of long-term inflation, Treasury supply, real rates and the extra return investors demand to lock up money for three decades.
As of August 17, the 30-year real yield stood at 3.06%, its highest since 2008. That raises the hurdle for non-yielding assets and tightens long-term financial conditions even if the Fed leaves its policy rate unchanged.
The impact spreads across markets:
· Bonds: higher yields mean lower prices and greater duration risk
· Economy: mortgage rates and long-term corporate financing costs can stay elevated without another Fed hike
· Gold: $XAU and $XAUT have shown resilience despite the higher real-yield hurdle
· Crypto: BTC can face a tougher liquidity backdrop, while debt and the long-term fiscal outlook remain part of the market’s broader BTC narrative
The driver matters. A rise led by stronger growth and real yields can pressure gold and high-beta assets. A rise led by inflation, supply or fiscal risk can produce a different response, with bonds, gold and BTC reacting differently.
Does 5.3% mark a lasting shift in long-term borrowing costs, or a temporary repricing of inflation and fiscal risk?
#DailyOrbit ₿ $BTC Has “Died” Before — Yet Every Cycle, It Came Back Stronger Bitcoin has been declared dead countless times. In 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025, every major cycle brought the same question: “Is this finally the end?” Yet Bitcoin repeatedly survived the collapse, rebuilt its market, and eventually reached new highs. This cycle may be different—not necessarily easier. The macro backdrop is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. U.S. debt and fiscal deficits remain enormous, while governments an#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ Xiaomi $XIAOMI This earnings report, I am more optimistic about the automotive line.
The premiumization of smartphones is certainly still being realized. In Q1, Xiaomi's domestic sales of phones priced above 3000 yuan accounted for 23.5%, and the ASP rose to 1310 yuan, indicating that Xiaomi is gradually shifting from "competing on volume" to "competing on value." But smartphones are ultimately a mature market, and relying on premiumization to sustain large growth will become increasingly difficult.
What really catches my attention is the automotive sector.
In 2025, Xiaomi plans to deliver 411,000 cars for the full year, with revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan, and achieve profitability for the first time. By Q1 2026, car deliveries are expected to reach 81,000 units, with quarterly revenue of 19 billion yuan. The problem is clear: automotive and AI innovation businesses still operated at a loss of 3.1 billion yuan in Q1. In other words, the car business has proven it "can sell," and the next step is to prove it "can sustain profitability."
So I am more optimistic about automotive, not because its current profits are impressive, but because it still has huge growth potential.
Smartphones are Xiaomi's foundation, AIoT is the moat, and automotive could become the true second growth curve. Smartphones, cars, home appliances, IoT devices, plus AI—if the "people-car-home" ecosystem truly forms a closed loop, Xiaomi will no longer be selling just individual products but an entire ecosystem.
Currently, Xiaomi's AIoT platform has connected over 1.1 billion devices, and users with more than five devices are continuously increasing, with further AI investment ramping up. This is the truly interesting part: once cars enter the ecosystem, they could become the mobile terminal connecting phones and home scenarios.
So for this earnings report, I am only focusing on one thing: as the automotive scale continues to grow, when will profits truly emerge?
If sales rise, gross margin remains stable, and losses narrow, Xiaomi's logic will no longer be simply "a phone manufacturer making cars," but a transformation from a consumer electronics company into a true "people-car-home AI ecosystem company."
This line, I am more optimistic about. ⚠️ Market Rotation Is Getting More Selective — Liquidity Is Choosing Winners The market is sending an increasingly clear signal: capital isn't disappearing—it is becoming more selective. $SNDK recently flushed lower before stabilizing into a higher consolidation range. That keeps the short-term structure constructive, but after a strong move, chasing becomes increasingly risky. If momentum returns, tactical entries may offer a better risk/reward profile than blindly adding exposure. $MU is showi📌Core Market Observation: $BTC has recently experienced a rebound, but the total trading volume continues to shrink and implied volatility remains at historically low levels, which is the most critical signal at present.
Currently, the overall buying power of BTC ETFs is weak, stablecoin funds are still flowing out of the crypto market, and the lack of incremental funds is the core constraint limiting a strong unilateral market move. Although institutions like UBS have not completely withdrawn and have increased their holdings of IBIT call options, providing some support from below; relying solely on existing holdings makes it difficult to break through previous highs in one go.
There is a clear divergence in capital flows: ETH spot ETFs attract significantly more funds than BTC, with net inflows in July far surpassing BTC. Continued rotation of funds into the ETH sector will be a major trend; meanwhile, funds are also continuously focusing on AI storage-related targets like SanDisk. With ongoing capital diversion, BTC is very likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern.
The key to the market direction lies in two points: first, whether ETF funds can shift from weak to strong and sustain net inflows; second, whether volatility can rise.
✅ If subsequent $ETH buying warms up and trading volume continues to expand, conditions will be met to open up upside space and challenge previous highs;
❌ If it continues to maintain low-volume oscillation, it is more likely to extend a back-and-forth range-bound consolidation with repeated long-short spikes and harvesting, which is not suitable for heavy unilateral speculation.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 Cobie on why hated coins can be easier to trade
“You can buy hated coins and stick to a system much better.”
“I’m not gonna hold this. It sucks.”
“It’s much harder to hold the 44,000.”
@cobie points out an interesting advantage of trading assets you don’t personally like.
When you have little attachment to a coin, cutting a losing position becomes easier. Taking a 3x can also feel sufficient because you never expected to hold it for the long run.
The downside comes when the asset keeps running.
If you genuinely believe in something like Solana, holding through a massive move becomes easier because you believe the asset deserves a higher valuation.
With a coin you dislike, a 5x can feel like the perfect exit even if the real move is still ahead.
Hated coins can make you more disciplined. Loved coins can make it easier to capture the life changing trade.
#DailyOrbit How many heroes and brave men have had their dreams shattered in this round of Sandisk's market?
Counting the initial position opened at 1380 for Sandisk, it dropped to 1330 with a 50-point space, greedily holding on without exiting. Then, after a round of positive earnings news in the evening, it has continuously surged until now. Saying more would just bring tears...
For Sandisk's position at the 1820 vacuum period, add a little more at the end; the remaining time is for exchanging space. For brothers still holding short positions on Sandisk, forced liquidation control between 2100-2200 is basically not a big problem. Just trade time for space.
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $SNDK The storage trio plunged sharply today as geopolitical risks triggered profit-taking
On August 18, the storage trio of SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix experienced rollercoaster trading. In the early session, boosted by sustained AI demand, SanDisk $SNDK surged nearly 9%, Micron $MU rose over 4%, and SK Hynix $SKHYNIX climbed more than 8%. However, the market turned volatile during the session; by the time of writing, SanDisk had dropped over 3%, Micron fell more than 2%, and SK Hynix plummeted over 7%.
The trigger points directly to Middle East geopolitical risks. Iran threatened to shift to "full-scale offensive" if necessary, while the U.S. ruled out extending the ceasefire. Brent crude oil responded by breaking above $90, and the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5.31%, hitting a 19-year high. Risk assets came under broad pressure, and the storage sector, one of the best-performing sectors this year (SanDisk surged as much as 628% year-to-date), naturally became a heavy victim of profit-taking.
Additionally, China's July retail sales growth was only 0.6%, intensifying market concerns about the global consumer electronics demand recovery. Panic quickly spread across the sector, with Seagate Technology falling over 8% and Western Digital dropping more than 5%.
Storage-related crypto assets also came under pressure, with intraday volatility significantly expanding. With geopolitical clouds lingering and prior huge gains, short-term volatility risks in the storage sector cannot be ignored.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 🚀 $SNDK: Is SanDisk Becoming the Sleeper Winner of the AI Boom? I'm increasingly convinced that SanDisk ($SNDK) could become one of the most interesting U.S. market stories in the second half of the year. Yes, the recent move has been extreme. But I don't think the rally is purely speculation. As the AI arms race accelerates, GPUs may be only the beginning. The massive growth in AI workloads also creates growing demand for high-performance storage and memory infrastructure. The market appears tXiaomi is releasing its earnings report tonight, and the outlook isn't very optimistic.
Revenue is expected to be 108.8 billion, with profits around 6 billion, both showing a significant year-on-year decline. The phone segment is the drag, with shipments down and market share falling to fifth place, but the average selling price hit a new high — basically meaning "sell fewer units, but at a higher price."
The biggest highlight is the automotive segment: over 100,000 deliveries in Q2, the new "Pengcheng" SUV is about to launch, and institutions predict revenue of 26.2 billion with a gross margin exceeding 20%.
The numbers will likely look bad, but the market has already priced that in. The real focus is on two things: whether the automotive gross margin can hold steady at 20%, and the outlook for new car orders. My feeling is that no matter how bad the phone segment gets, it will stay roughly the same; if the automotive segment exceeds expectations, tonight's conference call could actually become a turning point for sentiment.
As for Bitcoin, Xiaomi itself has no direct connection to crypto, but it is a sentiment indicator for Hong Kong tech stocks. If it holds up after the earnings report, that's good for the entire risk asset space; if it falls sharply, BTC will likely wobble along with it. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ What SUI is struggling with the most right now is not the price drop, but the fact that "it keeps unlocking even after the drop." **As of August 18, SUI is about $0.65, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $150M, continuing to weaken over the past 7 days; currently about 40.75% of the total supply has been unlocked, with a maximum supply of 10 billion tokens, and more will continue to be released. So it's not surprising that bearish voices online are growing louder: price falling, supply increasing, and investor patience waning—when these three things collide, sentiment naturally tends to collapse. But one thing must be clear—**negative sentiment ≠ project zeroing out.** SUI is still advancing in areas like institutional RWA, stablecoins, and ecosystem infrastructure; on August 16, there was even progress with Tether Hadron integration. The real question is: can SUI's actual ecosystem growth outpace the new supply over the next two years? If yes, today's unlocking is just a stress test; if not, SUI may be suppressed at low levels for a long time. My conclusion remains straightforward: **I do not consider SUI zeroing out by 2028 as my baseline judgment, but $0.5 or even lower cannot be ruled out; conversely, if the ecosystem rebounds strongly, $3, $5, or even higher is not impossible.** The biggest mistake in crypto is declaring a project "dead" during a crash and then saying it "will never fall" during a surge. What really matters is the users, capital, and ecosystem behind the price. Do you still dare to hold SUI until 2028? #SUI #BTC #ETH #SOL #cryptocurrency SafePal order leak, privacy protection still needs improvement. Back to SNDK, current price 1724.77, 24h up 0.4%. 4-hour trend is upward, 48.23% above the low point, medium-term is relatively strong; but 1-hour is -4.95% from the high, short-term correction pressure is high. Order book shows 44 buy and 81 sell, sellers dominate, short-term caution advised. Funding rate -0.0080%, negative value indicates bears have a slight advantage. Open interest is 125,000, funds are still in.
Key support at 1650, resistance at 1815. For operations, aggressive traders short near 1725, stop loss at 1815, target 1650; conservative traders wait for a pullback to 1650 without breaking to go long, stop loss at 1600, target 1760. Medium-term as long as 1650 is not broken, the bullish pattern remains.
Risk points: SafePal incident may trigger wallet security panic; heavy selling pressure on the order book, lack of support, watch out for spikes. Avoid heavy positions.
——For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
#SafePal订单泄露，隐私保护待完善 $SNDK $BTC $ETH Fellow B friends, the midday market experienced some volatility, causing many to feel uneasy and think about running away.
A bull market won't surge straight up; it undergoes shakeouts along the way to weed out those with unstable mindsets. This is a good thing and a necessary phase of the market.
Broaden your perspective and don't let intraday short-term price swings dictate your emotions.
If Bitcoin pulls back to 63400‑63600, consider buying on the dip with a stop loss at 62900. The first target is 64400; if it holds above that, continue pushing up to 65000. Just hold on following the main trend.
Enter Ethereum around the 1870‑1880 range, stop loss at 1835, first target at 1910. After breaking through, aim directly for 1940. In a bull market, Ethereum's own elasticity speaks for itself.
Simply put, a pullback is not the end of the market; rather, it provides a window to get in.
But a word of caution: don't be blindly bullish. If it breaks below the stop loss, be decisive and exit. Allow for various market uncertainties, manage risk well, and leave the rest to the market. $ETH "Today's market contradictions are very clear: the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a multi-year high, suppressing risk assets; however, US retail data weakened, cooling rate hike expectations, and the US dollar weakened, driving Bitcoin to rebound above 64,000, causing a large number of short positions to liquidate.
The US-Iran ceasefire talks have not materialized, and the Middle East situation could disrupt oil prices and global risk appetite at any time. A closed-door crypto meeting at the White House is scheduled for tomorrow, and regulatory news will become a short-term catalyst. ETF institutional funds are still flowing out; this wave is a rebound caused by short position liquidation, not a reversal. Key resistance to watch above is 64,800-65,300; avoid chasing highs. The US stock memory chip sector is strengthening against the trend, with SanDisk continuing to rebound in US stocks. Tokens fluctuate following the market; US stock tokens are simultaneously driven by US Treasury yields and individual stock fundamentals, amplifying volatility. Key variables to watch: ① Whether the 30-year US Treasury yield continues to rise; ② The message and stance from tomorrow's White House crypto meeting; ③ Whether the Middle East situation suddenly escalates. " Why has SUI suddenly been so heavily shorted recently? The real issue might not be that SUI is failing, but that the market is finally starting to settle accounts. **Currently, SUI's price has significantly retraced from its all-time high and has been repeatedly contested around $0.67–$0.70 recently. The technical weakness has further amplified panic sentiment. A more practical problem is unlocking: about 40.75% of SUI's total supply has already been released, and the remaining supply will continue to enter the market gradually as planned, with the full unlocking cycle extending to 2030. So what many people truly fear is not that SUI is falling today, but: "With so many new coins entering the market, can the price hold up?" But I want to say this: **The peak of negative sentiment does not necessarily mean the project will go to zero.** The real lifeline for SUI is whether the ecosystem growth in the next two years can outpace the supply release. If users, stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, and developers continue to grow, unlocking is just supply the market needs to digest; if the ecosystem stagnates, that is the real danger. My view is simple: **SUI going to zero by 2028 is not my baseline judgment, but whether SUI can prove itself again will be a critical window between 2026 and 2028.** The harshest truth in crypto is: when prices fall, everyone says it's over, but the true value often only becomes clear after market sentiment cools down. What do you think about SUI by 2028—will it go to zero, or will it rebound to $3 or even higher? #SUI #BTC #ETH #SOL #cryptocurrency #blockchain Account Position Divergence Radar
Account direction reflects sentiment, position weight reflects strength; this set specifically identifies places where the two do not align.
$DOGE has more accounts leaning long, but the top position weights lean short, indicating that the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position scale. When the price falls, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires trade verification. The account side is already biased long, so next we watch whether the top positions are willing to shift their weight to the same side.
$PEPE shows both the overall and top accounts leaning long, but the top position size remains on the short side, marking a clear account/position divergence. The 15-minute price and position move upward together, with risk exposure expanding; next, we watch if the price can continue to realize gains. Going forward, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weights repair toward the long side.
$XRP account metrics tilt long, but top position weights still lean short; this data set only confirms divergence and does not judge a winner. When the price rises, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires trade verification. Until the top position ratio returns above 1, the long account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ 券商那边给的预期挺保守的——Q2收入大概1070到1100亿，同比要跌6到7个点。更扎心的是利润，经调整净利润可能只有60亿左右，同比暴跌43%。手机在跌，汽车在亏，就剩AIoT在撑场面。三条线各走各的路，情况比想象中复杂。 手机这边，卖得少了，但卖得更贵了。 全球份额从14%掉到12%，中国市场份额更是跌到12.4%，出货量暴跌21%。前五名里跌得最狠的就是小米。但有个数据很有意思——手机均价可能创历史新高。说明高端化确实在推进，问题是存储芯片涨得太猛，高端化赚的那点差价全被上游涨价吃掉了。 汽车这边，SU7卖得不错，但卖一辆亏一辆。 7月交付21044辆，连续四个月拿20万以上轿车销冠。截至8月17日累计交付破了50万台。券商预计Q2交付10.2到10.4万辆，毛利率能到20%左右。但整个汽车业务还在经营亏损，说白了就是卖得越多亏得越多，第二增长曲线还没变成利润曲线。 AIoT这边，反而是最稳的。 一季度平台连接设备数超11亿，年增18.5%。“人车家全生态”的底座还在加厚。但消费电子整体疲软，券商预测Q2 AIoT收入可能同40 trillion in U.S. debt overhead, Hartnett says buy gold, but I want to suggest another option
On August 3rd, U.S. national debt officially surpassed 40 trillion dollars.
Just 65 billion dollars short of that "largest integer milestone in history."
This is not a prediction; it has already happened.
And just yesterday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 5.29%—the highest level since 2007. Only 15 basis points shy of the 5.44% peak set during the 2007 global financial crisis.
You think that's all?
Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett said: U.S. debt will not only break 40 trillion in the coming days but will surge to 50 trillion around 2029.
The first trillion took 192 years; the last trillion took only 5 months.
This is not debt; this is out of control.
Let's look at some numbers that will keep you awake at night:
In the past 12 months, U.S. debt interest payments have reached 1.4 trillion dollars.
What does 1.4 trillion mean? It’s approaching and surpassing Social Security to become the federal government’s largest single expenditure.
You read that right—the U.S. government will soon pay more in interest than in pensions.
Last week, the 30-year Treasury was issued at a 5.126% yield, a 25-year high.
Hartnett’s exact words: "U.S. stocks hit record highs the same day Treasuries were issued at the highest yield in 25 years—this is reality."
What’s Hartnett’s conclusion?
Go long gold.
His logic is solid: gold is the best hedge against dollar depreciation, bond market collapse, and political risk. In his framework, the core principle is just three words: stay away from the dollar.
He added a harsh warning: unless the 5-year Treasury yield falls below 3.25%, the worsening trend in interest payments won’t reverse. And without a major deflation shock or recession—that’s almost impossible.
In plain language: interest will only get more expensive, and debt will only grow.
Hartnett is right, but he missed one option.
Gold has indeed surged this year.
Since August, international gold prices rebounded from $4041/oz, once hitting $4400, with a weekly gain over 7%. August’s cumulative rise was nearly 9%. Global central banks’ net gold purchases in Q2 were 288.9 tons, up 411% quarter-over-quarter.
And Bitcoin? It’s still hovering around $63,000–$64,000.
Gold rose, but BTC didn’t keep up.
But that’s exactly the opportunity.
Why?
Because when sovereign wealth funds start shifting from U.S. debt to physical assets, they will eventually face an awkward fact:
Gold has physical limitations—slow trading, expensive storage, complex cross-timezone settlement.
Bitcoin does not.
Bitcoin is the only "digital physical asset" that can be traded globally 24/7 without any central bank involvement.
No counterparty risk. No trading hour restrictions. No borders.
You say it’s digital gold? No—it’s goldier than gold.
Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, said something yesterday worth engraving in your mind:
"The moment bond traders can stop panicking is when the Fed starts panicking."
The 30-year yield will only truly peak after the Fed finally takes rate hike action.
Castle Securities put it more bluntly: the Fed remains reluctant to tighten monetary policy, posing broader risks to the overall market.
Policymakers always choose the easier path when facing tough decisions.
What’s the easier path? Printing money.
What’s the result of printing money? Your dollars become worth less and less.
So my conclusion is simple:
Hartnett says buy gold, I say—
gold + Bitcoin, hold both strong.
One is the traditional weapon to hedge dollar depreciation; the other is the ultimate fortress against the fiat system.
One is bought by central banks; the other cannot be bought by central banks.
40 trillion U.S. debt overhead, 1.4 trillion interest bloodsucking, 30-year yield at 5.29% and still rising.
What are you waiting for? Waiting for the Fed to panic?
By the time that day comes, it will be too late.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Gold — $4,460, surged then pulled back but momentum remains!
Gold is at $4,460/oz today, fluctuating at a high level. New York gold closed overnight at $4,473. It once surged during the session but then pulled back, with clear resistance at the 4500 level.
The macro environment is tough: US-Iran negotiation deadlock, Trump threatening to bomb Oman; foreign holdings of US debt have declined three out of the last four months; stagflation deepening + geopolitical risks + central banks reducing US debt purchases and buying gold — triple support. But after continuous sharp rises, there are also many profit-taking positions.
50% are fluctuating between 4,400-4,480; 30% are pulling back to 4,350-4,400; 20% have stabilized above 4,480 aiming for 4,500+. $XAUT The sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks of Zhipu indicates that the primary high valuation premium of large models is rapidly being squeezed out, with capital polarizing and diverting between US stock hardware and Hong Kong stock model application ends. Under the expectation of macro liquidity tightening, assets are being re-evaluated for their monetization ability.
Zhipu fell nearly 17% intraday, breaking below the 1000 HKD mark, accompanied by a turnover exceeding 6.6 billion HKD, confirming the market's determination to sell off model ends without positive cash flow. The driving factors are, in order, certainty of commercialization realization, risk appetite contraction under high interest costs, and cross-market capital run-off towards basic computing power.
The capital re-pricing directly transmits to macro cross-market linkage. While the US dollar index and US Treasury yields run at high levels, the high-beta software model end faces liquidity bleeding first. Simultaneously, gold experiences high-level oscillation and US stock hardware attracts capital, while high-risk preference areas such as crypto assets also endure valuation multiple contraction and linked pressure.
Scenario One: If the renewal rate and high customer unit price commercialization landing of AI application ends in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks fall short of expectations, capital will accelerate withdrawal from the model layer. The trigger condition is that US stock hardware maintains capital inflow and crypto high-beta assets plateau and get squeezed. The observation variable is whether the application end's turnover proportion continuously declines, and the invalidation signal is an explosive single-customer revenue breakthrough at the model end.
Scenario Two: If leading large model enterprises achieve breakthroughs in enterprise-level commercialization landing or high customer unit price API renewals, the valuation correction pressure on the model end will be alleviated. The trigger condition requires a phased decline in the US dollar index and interest rates to release risk appetite. The observation variable is whether API renewal growth can cover capital expenditure, and the invalidation signal is hardware giants further raising capital expenditure guidance, depriving software end cash flow.
When upstream hardware computing power costs structurally and significantly decline, or the macro interest rate environment sharply shifts to stimulate high-risk asset valuation expansion, the capital differentiation logic between hardware and model ends will be forcibly reset.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the transmission efficiency of US dollar index volatility and US Treasury yield trends on cross-market high-risk asset valuation pressure, and whether Hong Kong stock large model targets can stabilize trading near the 1000 HKD mark.
#Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 On August 18, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.29%, the highest since 2007.
You might think: it's just a number, what does it have to do with me?
It matters a lot.
The U.S. government now has to pay 5.29% interest to borrow money for 30 years. Alphabet issues 30-year bonds at a 6.4% rate. Meta finances its data centers with bonds yielding over 7.5%.
The safest asset in the world is giving you a risk-free return of over 5%.
What does this mean?
It means capital has better places to go.
Bitcoin doesn’t generate interest, stocks carry risk, real estate lacks liquidity. But U.S. Treasuries—just sitting at home doing nothing—earn a steady 5.29% annually.
This is one of the core reasons BTC has dropped 46% in the past 12 months.
But it’s not that simple.
Short term: headwinds, real headwinds
A 5.29% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries means three things for the crypto market in the short term:
First, borrowing costs rise.
Government borrowing becomes more expensive, corporate borrowing becomes more expensive, and your mortgage borrowing becomes more expensive. Higher long-term rates directly suppress stock valuations and tighten global financial conditions.
Second, capital relocation.
The 10-year Treasury real yield reached 2.41% on August 14, the highest since Bitcoin’s inception.
What does this mean? You hold Bitcoin, bearing huge volatility risk, hoping for excess returns. But now you can buy U.S. Treasuries and get over 5% yield with almost zero risk.
Why would Bitcoin keep capital?
Third, risk appetite declines.
Nohshad Shah, head of fixed income sales at Castle Securities, bluntly said: "The Fed is still reluctant to tighten monetary policy, posing broader risks to the overall market."
The Fed’s policy meeting next month "will be a closely contested battle."
Uncertainty itself is poison for risk assets.
This is the short-term reality: a 5.29% Treasury yield is a headwind for the crypto market.
BTC has retraced from its all-time high of $126,000 in October last year, down 46% this year—the tightening of macro liquidity is a key driver.
Headwinds are headwinds, don’t fool yourself.
Long term: tailwinds, the biggest tailwind in history
But if you extend the timeline to 1-3 years, the story completely reverses.
Why can the 30-year Treasury yield rise to 5.29%?
Because the market doesn’t believe the U.S. fiscal situation can hold.
Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, pointed out: U.S. debt is about to surpass $40 trillion.
In the past 12 months, U.S. debt interest payments have reached $1.4 trillion, approaching and surpassing Social Security to become the largest single federal government expenditure.
What does $1.4 trillion mean?
The U.S. government will soon pay more in interest alone than it pays in pensions to citizens annually.
Hartnett said something piercing: "U.S. stocks hit record highs the same day U.S. Treasuries were issued at the highest yield in 25 years—this is reality."
The market is voting with its feet—not believing the dollar can hold.
Jim Bianco put it more harshly: "Bond traders can stop panicking only when the Fed starts panicking."
In plain language: as long as the Fed isn’t truly afraid, the bond market will continue to sell Treasuries. The long-end yield will only peak after the Fed finally takes rate hike action.
The more the Fed dares not tighten, the less the market believes in the dollar.
This is a process of trust collapse.
What does this mean for crypto?
In the short term, a 5.29% Treasury yield is a headwind for BTC—capital flows to risk-free assets, and risk appetite is suppressed.
In the long term, this is the biggest tailwind for the crypto market.
Because 5.29% is not telling people "U.S. Treasuries are good."
5.29% is telling people: the U.S. government is on the edge of not being able to pay interest.
$40 trillion debt, $1.4 trillion annual interest, growing at about $5 billion per day.
When sovereign funds start shifting from Treasuries to physical assets—Bitcoin’s narrative as "digital gold" will gain unprecedented institutional endorsement.
I’m not making this up.
Hartnett’s framework is clear: ABB (Away from Bonds), ABD (Away from Dollars).
Away from bonds, away from dollars—where does the money go?
Gold has risen 33%, BTC has dropped 46%.
In the short term, capital went to gold. In the long term, when institutions realize Bitcoin is the true "digital gold"—the script will be rewritten.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Long-term US borrowing costs just broke a 19-year ceiling.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, its highest since 2007. Last week’s $25B auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest 30-year auction yield since 2001.
This is bigger than the next Fed decision. The curve is bear-steepening, with shorter-dated yields relatively steadier while the long end sells off. That points to a repricing of long-term inflation, Treasury supply, real rates and the extra return investors demand to lock up money for three decades.
As of August 17, the 30-year real yield stood at 3.06%, its highest since 2008. That raises the hurdle for non-yielding assets and tightens long-term financial conditions even if the Fed leaves its policy rate unchanged.
The impact spreads across markets:
· Bonds: higher yields mean lower prices and greater duration risk
· Economy: mortgage rates and long-term corporate financing costs can stay elevated without another Fed hike
· Gold: $XAU and $XAUT have shown resilience despite the higher real-yield hurdle
· Crypto: BTC can face a tougher liquidity backdrop, while debt and the long-term fiscal outlook remain part of the market’s broader BTC narrative
The driver matters. A rise led by stronger growth and real yields can pressure gold and high-beta assets. A rise led by inflation, supply or fiscal risk can produce a different response, with bonds, gold and BTC reacting differently.
Does 5.3% mark a lasting shift in long-term borrowing costs, or a temporary repricing of inflation and fiscal risk?
#DailyOrbit Here's a counterintuitive macro judgment. The Middle East is chaotic again, and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is rising. Some people have a conditioned reflex: war means risk aversion, which is bullish for gold and also bullish for Bitcoin. I don't see it that way. In the current geopolitical conflict, the market's first pricing is not "risk aversion," but rather "rising oil prices → more persistent inflation → the Fed finds it harder to cut rates." In other words, the war risk transmission to crypto follows the interest rate hike path — which suppresses BTC rather than supports it. Don't use the phrase "safe-haven asset" to justify your bullish stance; first look at how the 2-year US Treasury moves, then talk about risk aversion. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Today I came across the topic of Xiaomi's earnings report, and I was completely stunned.
My first reaction was: now even Xiaomi has been brought into the crypto circle, does Lei Jun know about this? 😂
Yesterday there was Kimi, and Pop Mart, it feels like our major companies are also starting to compete for the liquidity market.
Today $XIAOMI's market gave a warning shot, dropping more than 4% at one point. The earnings report hasn't been released yet, but the bulls and bears have already started fighting.
If I really had to choose a business line, I am more optimistic about automobiles.
High-end smartphones are the profit foundation, AIoT is the connector that links phones, cars, and home devices, but cars are the second curve most likely to rewrite Xiaomi's valuation. This earnings report shouldn't just be about how many units were sold, but also about whether the gross margin can be raised and losses can be reduced. Just chasing sales without making money, no matter how exciting the story is, will be discounted by the market.
What's even more interesting is that OKX's boundaries are indeed getting wider: Pop Mart trades on emotional consumption, Kimi trades on AI expectations, Xiaomi trades on the "full ecosystem of people, cars, and homes."
At this pace, I even start to look forward to whether DeepSeek will be next.
Of course, this is not these companies collectively issuing tokens, but their growth stories are starting to be priced 24/7.
If automobiles deliver "scale growth + profit improvement," I would be a bit more bullish; otherwise, today's sell-off might just be a rehearsal.
$POPMART $MOONSHOT
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #BTC ETF Redemption $390M vs ETH Staking Exit Queue at 0: Opposite Capital Flows on Two Chains
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $390 million, the largest weekly redemption in 6 weeks. On the same day, the ETH staking exit queue reset to zero again, but 2.17 million ETH (about $4.1 billion) are queued to enter staking. The capital flows on the two chains are moving in opposite directions.
On the evening of August 17, a series of 13F filings on X completed the picture. Brevan Howard ($30 billion AUM) sold 70% of its BTC ETF position, leaving $255 million; Graham Capital ($20 billion) sold 75%, leaving $9 million; Macquarie ($220 billion) sold 62%, leaving $55 million. All three reduced their holdings by over 70% simultaneously—not a coincidence, but institutional rebalancing during the Q2 earnings window.
However, there are also counter signals on the same side. Jane Street holds $990 million in BTC (15,394 coins via ETF), with $828 million in BlackRock's IBIT. Yet Jane Street reported its first monthly loss in a decade during the same period, as its traditional market-making business bled while holding BTC.
@KobeissiLetter provided a more noteworthy contrast: the leveraged ETF market’s total exposure reached $420 billion, up $100 billion in 3 weeks, hitting a new high since early July. Spot BTC ETFs are redeeming, while leveraged ETFs are increasing positions. This is not a uniform retreat but a shift by institutions from "holding BTC" to "trading BTC."
@BSCNews data from 8/18 is the strongest evidence of this divergence: ETH staking exit queue reset to zero again, but 2.17 million ETH (about $4.1 billion) are queued to enter. An exit queue of zero means current stakers don’t want to withdraw, while the 2.17 million ETH queue means a large amount of capital is waiting to lock up.
Bitmine’s moves are even bigger. @IvanOnTech reported on 8/17 that Bitmine staked 87% of ETH, 5.06 million ETH, about $9.6 billion. One institution staking $9.6 billion worth of ETH effectively removes a large supply from circulation.
$BTC perpetual on 8/18 02:10 reported at $64,292.1, 24h +1.80%; funding rate **turned negative at -0.0003%**, OKX single-block SWAP oiUsd about $2.07 billion, down 1.64% in 24h. Price rose but OI shrank + funding turned negative, indicating a short-covering driven rebound structure unchanged; the rise is not a bull attack but a bear retreat.
$ETH perpetual reported at $1,906.34, 24h +0.75%; funding rate +0.0025%, oiUsd about $1.33 billion, up 0.74% in 24h. ETH’s OI is moderately expanding, funding slightly positive, with new positions entering. This contrasts with BTC’s OI contraction, and OKX perpetual reflects the capital divergence between the two chains.
BTC’s ETF channel is releasing supply (net outflow $390 million + three institutions reducing holdings by over 70%), while ETH’s staking channel is tightening circulation (exit queue zero + 2.17 million ETH queued + Bitmine staking $9.6 billion). One loosens, the other tightens.
@aixbt_agent offered a noteworthy observation: BTC underperformed the S&P on 38% of days in the past 3 months, with rising correlation risk to NASDAQ. If NASDAQ breaks down, BTC’s downside risk can’t be ignored. But ETH’s staking lockup is counter-cyclical; regardless of secondary market moves, staked ETH won’t come out in the short term.
This doesn’t mean ETH is necessarily stronger than BTC, but the two chains are responding differently to the same cycle: BTC uses the ETF channel for institutional rebalancing, ETH uses staking lockup to tighten supply. Whichever path completes first will rebound first.
Three routine questions.
BTC ETF net outflow $390 million last week, but leveraged ETF exposure rose to $420 billion—do you believe institutions are retreating or just switching tools?
ETH staking exit queue at zero, 2.17 million ETH queued to enter—do you bet this is structural lockup or a cyclical staking bubble?
BTC funding rate turned negative + OI shrank + price rose, ETH funding slightly positive + OI expanded, OKX perpetual shows divergence between the two chains—who do you side with?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #ETF #Staking 🚀 $AEON/$USDT : Bullish Breakout Builds Momentum — Key Levels to Watch $AEON is showing strong upside momentum after breaking out from the lower trading range. Price is currently around 0.08548, with the token up nearly 13% today. 📈 Key Levels Resistance: 0.0880 → 0.0936 Support: 0.0850 → 0.0800 A sustained breakout above 0.0936 could potentially open the door to another move higher. However, after such a sharp rally, a pullback or retest would not be unusual. The 0.0850–0.0800 zone is the key$XAU $XAUT Gold Technical Pullback Analysis: Factors and Support Levels
Today's decline is mainly driven by the resonance of four factors:
1. Direct Trigger: Concentrated Profit Taking
In early August, gold prices surged over 7% in a single week, with bulls accumulating substantial unrealized gains. When the price hit the key resistance zone of $4420~$4430 today but failed to break through, short-term funds concentrated on profit-taking, which was the most direct trigger for this round of decline.
2. Core Fundamental Pressure: US Treasury Yield Rebound
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.73%, and the 30-year yield briefly touched near a two-decade high. Rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, weakening gold's appeal as an allocation and exerting sustained pressure on gold prices.
3. Indirect Negative Factor: Oil Price Rise Rekindles Inflation Concerns
Brent crude oil prices approached $90 per barrel, raising market concerns that energy price rebounds will exacerbate inflation stickiness, potentially causing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even keep rate hike options open. The marginal tightening of rate expectations forms an indirect bearish factor for gold.
4. Technical Amplification: Resistance Encounter Triggers Stop Losses
Gold prices twice failed to break the previous high near $4436, showing clear lack of bullish momentum. After breaking the short-term support at $4420, programmed stop-loss orders were triggered, further amplifying the intraday pullback.
Overall, this decline is a normal consolidation within an uptrend, with the market still awaiting clear policy signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes on Wednesday (August 20).这件事真正值得看的，不是Strategy会不会卖比特币，而是Saylor过去“只买不卖”的逻辑，正在变得更现实。 一、为什么STRC改变了Strategy？ STRC需要持续支付股息，而股息最终需要美元现金。 所以Strategy现在意识到，不能把所有资产都压在BTC上，还必须保留足够的现金流动性，才能支撑STRC和其他信用产品。 二、为什么Saylor愿意卖$BTC ？ 因为Strategy现在已经不只是囤币公司。 它同时管理BTC、现金、普通股和优先股。 如果STRC被明显低估，而公司又需要现金，那么卖出部分BTC、回购STRC，可能比继续死守BTC更有效率。 三、Strategy正在发生什么变化？ 以前是： 融资 → 买BTC → BTC上涨 → 再融资。 现在更像是： BTC便宜就买BTC； STRC便宜就买STRC； 需要流动性就增加现金； 必要时也可以卖BTC。 这说明Strategy正在从单纯的“BTC囤积者”，变成围绕BTC做资本配置的金融公司。 四、投资者应该看什么？ 真正重要的不是“Saylor终于愿意卖BTC了”，而是Strategy能不能同时管理好BTC、现金和$AMD This AMD order book is giving me goosebumps, the long and short positions around 498 are switching too fiercely, purely a battle of funds with no news support. This kind of wild movement is most likely a manipulative pump-and-dump by a manipulator, so don't rush to get in, watch out for a fake breakout. I choose to wait and see first, and will decide after volume confirms the direction. Do you think this move is a setup or a bull trap? 👇👇👇📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Update (August 18)
According to liquidation data, a whale on OKB executed a textbook "short-term accumulation → long-term full-force long squeeze" harvesting strategy. Shorts were completely wiped out in the short term; although there was resistance within 12-24 hours, it was continuously crushed, with total liquidations exceeding $250,000.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $3.92 $3.92 $0
4 hours $21,300 $21,300 $0
12 hours $209,400 $206,400 $3,050.88
24 hours $259,600 $206,400 $53,200
From the $OKB liquidation data, long liquidations crushed shorts in the 1-hour window, completely wiping out shorts. The long squeeze unfolded in textbook fashion but with a very small scale—$3.92, a typical small probe; at 4 hours, longs continued to crush shorts, which were still completely wiped out. The long squeeze intensified explosively, with liquidations soaring from $3.92 to $21,300—longs went all out, shorts were thoroughly crushed; at 12 hours, longs still dominated, with longs 67.6 times the shorts. Although the long squeeze momentum weakened significantly, it remained extremely strong, with liquidations jumping from $21,300 to $209,400—shorts began to appear but were instantly crushed; at 24 hours, longs continued to dominate, with long liquidations at $206,400 versus shorts at $53,200, longs 3.88 times shorts, and total liquidations surpassing $259,600—this whale completed the perfect path of "short-term accumulation → long-term full-force long squeeze" on OKB. Shorts were completely wiped out in the short term, and although there was resistance in the long term, it was continuously crushed. However, the key point is that the long-to-short liquidation ratio shrank sharply from 67.6 times at 12 hours to 3.88 times at 24 hours, indicating the long squeeze energy is rapidly depleting, and longs and shorts are returning to balance, with direction possibly reversing at any time. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Long liquidations on OKB continue to crush shorts across all timeframes, showing highly consistent direction, but the 12H to 24H ratio narrows from 67.6 to 3.88, signaling a sharp decline in long squeeze momentum and a very high risk of direction reversal; 12-hour and 24-hour liquidations account for 99% of the daily total, indicating high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be reduced to below 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish and strictly control positions while waiting for clearer direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 18
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously digesting corporate earnings tests, risk-free rate revaluation, and long-term validation of AI storage logic.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings Incoming: Phone Pressure, Auto Growth
Xiaomi will release its FY2026 Q2 results after the Hong Kong market close today. Market expectations are revenue of ¥108.82 billion, down 6.15% year-over-year; earnings per share expected at ¥0.20, down 55.67% year-over-year.
The smartphone business faces a "volume-price battle": global smartphone shipments declined 11% year-over-year, with Xiaomi's global share dropping from 14% to 12%. However, the premium strategy drives ASP to new highs, and with storage price increases slowing, phone gross margin is expected to remain above 8%.
The smart car business is the biggest highlight: Q2 deliveries exceeded 100,000 units, with Goldman Sachs forecasting new business revenue including EVs at ¥26.234 billion, up 23% year-over-year. The Pengcheng series SUV is expected to launch in September; whether it becomes a core catalyst in H2 will be a key focus at the earnings call.
📈 30-Year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007
On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, the highest since 2007; the 10-year yield rose to 4.724%.
Three pressures driving this: the US fiscal deficit continues to expand, with the CBO projecting debt interest payments to reach $2.1 trillion by 2036; the AI investment boom has led to massive corporate bond issuance; the US-Iran 60-day peace agreement expired, and Brent crude closed at $90.87 per barrel. Barclays strategists bluntly state that weak economic data can no longer suppress long-term bond yields—the market is pricing in long-term fiscal and inflation risks.
💾 SanDisk Rises Over 8%, Long-Term Agreements Reshape Valuation Logic
SanDisk rose about 8% on Monday to $1,770, after already gaining over 60%. JPMorgan resumed coverage with a $2,250 price target; Evercore's target is even higher at $2,800.
The core driver of this rally is long-term agreements: SanDisk has signed NBM agreements with 8 customers, with total contract value reaching $93.9 billion; covering over 50% of FY2027 and about two-thirds of FY2028 capacity; average agreement duration exceeds 4 years, extending company demand visibility from 3 months to over 4 years. China Merchants Securities points out that SanDisk is shifting from a highly cyclical NAND supplier to a value-creation model driven by AI demand and secured by long-term agreements.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: Xiaomi is seeking automotive growth amid phone pressure; the US Treasury market is pricing in long-term fiscal risks; SanDisk is locking in future AI storage revenue with long-term agreements—corporate earnings tests, risk-free rate revaluation, and industry logic validation are converging in the same time window. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Annualized revenue surging to $65 billion and the confidential IPO filing news have pushed $ANTHROPIC's valuation scale toward the public market, while tightening enterprise compute ledgers are creating tension in premium pricing.
A leap beyond $11.5 billion in Q2 alone has driven the post-investment valuation up to $965 billion, with the market even anticipating a push toward higher valuations.
Cloud providers are accelerating the diversion of routine calls through low-cost self-developed models, large enterprise clients have stopped indiscriminate purchasing, and cost accounting per interaction has become mainstream.
The steep revenue growth masks the cash burn from compute expenses; whether model premiums can sustain ultra-high multiples in the secondary market remains to be seen.
If leading models establish irreplaceable commercial barriers in advanced complex scenarios, large enterprise clients renewing at high contract values will push the valuation midpoint higher, but low-cost models substituting in complex logic will immediately invalidate this premise.
If enterprise marginal budgets continue to flow toward low-cost substitutes, declining customer retention will trigger downward pressure on public market pricing below primary valuations, unless compute spending significantly decreases to directly restore gross margins.
The essence of the bull-bear game lies in whether high-premium models can complete the pricing handover to the secondary market before the market fully enters a cost-sensitive phase.
In the next 7 days, key observations include large enterprise clients' renewal willingness for high-end APIs and the call growth rate of low-cost self-developed models by cloud giants.
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注近期加密市场的资金流动再次引发了广泛讨论。就在刚刚过去的一周，也就是美东时间8月10日至8月14日，现货比特币ETF与现货以太坊ETF交出了一份看似相近、实则冷暖有别的成绩单。现货比特币ETF录得3.9亿美元的净流出，而现货以太坊ETF的净流出则仅为226万美元。两组数字摆在一起，乍看之下是比特币承受了更大的抛压，但如果深入拆解其中的结构性细节，你会发现市场的真实情绪远比表面数字复杂得多。 先来看比特币一侧。3.9亿美元的净流出并非均匀分布在各家发行商头上，而是呈现出高度集中的特征。领跑这场资金撤离的依然是富达旗下的FBTC，单周净流出达到1.53亿美元，几乎占据了总流出金额的四成。其他几家主要发行商虽然也出现了一定的资金外流，但都没有达到如此突出的量级。这种“一家独大”的流出结构，往往暗示着特定类型投资者在调仓或获利了结，而非市场整体的恐慌性出逃。换句话说，有人在离场，但离场的节奏是有序的，并不是踩踏式的溃退。 再看以太坊一侧，情况就更有意思了。现货以太坊ETF整体净流出仅为226万美元，这本身就是一个极为微弱的数字。但更值得玩味的是，贝莱德旗下的ETHA在这段时间里竟然录得了163Memory price pressure combined with Xiaomi's surge means the financial report for Xiaomi's smartphone business is expected to look bleak.
Goldman Sachs and several other institutions directly predict Xiaomi's Q2 net profit will plunge by 40%. As a Xiaomi fan myself, I can't hold back from criticizing Xiaomi's operations this year.
Last year, the Mi series paid full tribute to Apple in both name and design, and even Xiaomi fan bloggers recommended buying the Redmi K90 PM instead of the Mi 17. The Mi series even dropped out of the top 30 sales rankings, dragging Xiaomi's domestic smartphone business share down to 12%.
Moreover, the shortage of consumer-grade memory is expected to last another two to three years, and the supply chain price hikes have tightly squeezed Xiaomi's profits, with a comprehensive price increase recently.
One of the few positives is that this tough situation already played out once in Q1.
High EQ: The market had already priced in the bad news for Q2 financials long ago.
Low EQ: Already at rock bottom, any move is upward.
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.) — Currently $259.04, 24h -1.37%
$AMZN currently $259.04, market cap $2.79T, 24h change -1.37%. Dragged down by the market, fundamentals unchanged.
I am Yuvi.
Let's talk about $AMZN current position:
AWS is the core: Morgan Stanley expects AWS revenue to reach $1 trillion in 8-10 years, corresponding to a $500 stock price; the biggest beneficiary of AI cloud migration.
Dual engines + hidden growth: TTM revenue $775.7B, net profit $135.3B; advertising accounts for about 9% of revenue, growing faster than Google/Meta.
Valuation is reasonable: P/E 21, $327 target price with 26% upside; but FCF only $3.2B, capital expenditure is a concern.
My action: build position below $250, patiently wait for AWS value to be realized.
I am Yuvi, only talk logic, no hype. See you tomorrow.