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Circle officially started giving Hyperliquid 90% of USDC revenue sharing on 8/26 😬
Currently, there are about 5.6 billion USDC on Hyperliquid
which can generate about 200 million in revenue per year
Originally, Circle could get about 100 million of this money
Now 90% goes to Hype
and the remainder is split evenly with Coinbase
so Circle might only end up with 10 million
The biggest issue is
once the Hyperliquid case happens
there's no guarantee other chains or protocols won't follow suit
which would further drastically reduce Circle's revenue
Although currently the priority is to maintain USDC circulation
and circulation growth is crucial to sustain revenue
with distribution costs continuously increasing
even circulation growth might be offset
This move can only be called a risky gamble
Also, this was made public in mid-May
it seems the market has already reacted to this
$CRCL Chainlink's derivatives market is sending a noteworthy signal—leverage levels have recovered, but prices have yet to follow suit. Santiment data shows that LINK's leverage level has returned to pre-crash levels, but the price has not yet rebounded in tandem. Token-denominated derivatives open interest (OI) is about 29 million LINK, surpassing the level of October 9, while dollar-denominated open interest is about $279 million, lower than the pre-crash $555 million. The funding rate remains positive, with increased open interest leaning toward bulls, but current open interest remains below the peak of about 34 million tokens in August 2025. Data interpretation: Token-denominated OI has recovered, but dollar-denominated OI remains below pre-crash levels. This difference reflects a drop in LINK's price—holding the same number of LINK contracts requires less dollar value. LINK-denominated open interest has surpassed previous highs, indicating that market participants' derivatives exposure on LINK has recovered to a considerable scale, but USD-denominated open interest still shrinks by about 50% compared to before the crash. The funding rate remains positive, with increased positions favoring the bulls. This reflects that bulls dominate the current newly added LINK positions. Traders are willing to pay funding fees for holding long positions, indicating a relatively optimistic market outlook for LINK's short-term movement. However, persistently positive rates also mean bulls are paying ongoing costs for their positions. If prices fail to rise as expected, these positions may face pressure from time loss. Current open interest remains belowRecently, the US storage sector has heated up again, with SanDisk being the strongest in this round. On August 17, $SNDK rose about 8.9% again, following a significant rebound over several trading days. There are two main logics behind this: AI demand and U.S. policy. 1. Why did SanDisk suddenly become stronger? The first is the improvement in fundamental expectations for companies. SanDisk forecasted at Investor Day that its revenue growth rate for fiscal years 2028–2030 will reach mid-to-high double-digit growth rates. The market is paying more attention to its new AI-oriented technology, HBF, or High Bandwidth Flash. Simply put, it aims to provide a higher bandwidth and larger capacity flash solution for AI inference. The expectations of demand from AI clients like Google and Meta have also led the market to refocus on NAND's role in AI infrastructure. 2. The U.S. government has added fuel to the fire Recently, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly stated that the U.S. government has expressed to Apple that it does not want American companies to adopt more Chinese memory chips. The market immediately interpreted this as: if Chinese storage manufacturers face restrictions entering the U.S. supply chain, non-Chinese companies like SanDisk and Micron may benefit. 3. This round of speculation is not just about storage price increases Previously, the market focused on NAND mainly on inventory, price, and cycles. But now there's an added layer of AI logic. AI requires not only GPUs and HBMs, but also ever-increasing data storage capabilities.Every time you "sell high and buy low," you're actually helping the whales recover their chips.
Stop thinking of yourself as the hunter.
The on-chain slap has already come:
• 3.56 million BTC haven't moved for over 10 years, accounting for 17.7% of circulation, with another 14,000 coins net added to cold wallets in the last 30 days.
• 62% of BTC hasn't moved for over a year, 34% are old coins over 5 years, and 17.8% over 10 years.
• After excluding truly lost coins, dormant coins, and those locked by ETFs/listed companies, the real effective supply that can be sold is only 16 to 17.3 million coins, not the 20.07 million on the books.
• BIS surveyed 95 countries: 81% of crypto retail investors overall lose money, 95% of short-term contract traders lose money, and less than 19% survive two bull-bear cycles with stable profits.
What are you really doing?
You fear missing out when it rises 30%, buying high like a philanthropist; you fear going to zero when it drops 20%, cutting losses and stuffing cheap chips back into decade-old wallets.
With the same hands, selling low and buying high, you fuel the "effective circulation contraction" machine with fees and slippage.
You think you're trading swings, but the market classifies you statistically as a "liquidity provider."
So here's a question:
Looking back ten years from now, between the "active traders" slapped back and forth around 63,000 today and the "dead coins" unmoved for ten years totaling 3.56 million, who is the real BTC bull?
Guess which side time will settle the money on? #财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
My perspective on Xiaomi might be a bit different — I don't focus on how much a single business can achieve, but rather on how these three lines feed each other. The phone stabilizes the profit side, supporting R&D investment. The car is a high-investment, long-cycle track, burning money in the short term to gain scale, but once volume picks up, it will become the entry point for the entire ecosystem. AIoT is responsible for connection, linking phones and cars to form a multi-device collaborative experience.
Xiaomi's approach essentially uses one cash flow business to support another high-growth business, betting on the long-term returns of ecosystem synergy. If phone profits can continuously support investments in cars and AIoT, and once cars start contributing positive cash flow, the entire company's valuation logic will be redefined.
This earnings report from Xiaomi is one thing in terms of data, but more importantly, it needs to prove that the closed-loop logic is sustainable. Phones cannot fail, cars cannot stop, AIoT cannot break down; all three lines must run simultaneously, as any weak link could drag down the overall valuation. For the broader market, Xiaomi's earnings report doesn't directly affect prices, but it serves as a thermometer for sentiment in the tech sector.
What do you all think? $BTC $SNDK $BTC holds above 63,000, but ETFs saw a $390 million outflow in one week: The biggest risk now is a "rebound without funds"
BTC is currently still fluctuating above $63,000, having briefly dipped to around $62,670 before quickly recovering; however, last week the US spot BTC ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $390 million.
This data is worth reviewing: the price hasn't broken down further, but institutional incremental funds have not clearly returned either.
So at this stage, when judging BTC, I won't just look at a single bullish candle, but whether 63,000 can truly turn from resistance back into support.
If subsequent dips near 63,000 still find buying support, and BTC challenges $64,000–$64,500 again, it indicates selling pressure is being absorbed; if trading volume continues to shrink during the rebound and BTC ultimately falls back below 63,000, it looks more like short covering rather than the start of a new trend.
What BTC lacks most now is not positive news, but funds willing to keep chasing prices after positive news appears.
$ETH
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #OKX预言家第二季正式上线 The complete downfall story of the mobile mining pioneer Core Foundation and the settlement agreement with Maple Finance
$CORE 0.02CORE/USDT-4% "Neither party admits fault, but time is running out"
1. Event timeline reconstruction
At the beginning of 2025, Core Foundation and Maple Finance collaborated to launch lstBTC, allowing Bitcoin holders to earn yields through the Core chain. Core invested technology, marketing, and substantial subsidies, while Maple's Assets Under Management (AUM) surged from less than $500 million to $2.8 billion. The lstBTC pilot project attracted over $150 million in Bitcoin deposits.
However, by mid-2025, Maple was accused of using confidential information obtained during the partnership to secretly develop a competing product, syrupBTC, violating the 24-month exclusivity clause in their agreement. Core immediately applied for an injunction in the Cayman Islands Grand Court, successfully blocking Maple from launching syrupBTC and prohibiting Maple from trading CORE tokens.
More troublingly, Maple later claimed it needed to impair the $150 million Bitcoin deposits, implying it might not be able to fully return users' principal. Core firmly stated these assets were held in a bankruptcy-remote structure, and Maple had no right to impair them.
2. The true nature of the settlement agreement
The settlement statement you see uses typical PR language of "neither party admits fault":
"The settlement is not, and is not to be construed as, an admission of liability or wrongdoing by any party."
But this does not mean Core gained nothing. The core logic of the settlement is a deal, not a judgment:
What Maple got
- The right to continue launching syrupBTC: the injunction was lifted, allowing Maple to proceed with its Bitcoin yield product as planned
- Avoidance of a permanent court ban from this sector
- Preservation of company reputation and operational continuity (Maple manages over $3 billion in assets; prolonged litigation would be fatal to its financing and partnerships)
What Core got (implicitly)
- Termination of arbitration and litigation costs: cross-border arbitration plus Cayman court procedures, with astronomical legal fees and time
- Safe recovery of the $150 million Bitcoin deposits: this is the most critical point. Maple previously threatened to "impair" user deposits. If Maple fell into liquidity crisis or bankruptcy due to litigation, the chain reaction faced by Core as a partner (user claims, reputation collapse) would far exceed the loss of a sole partner. The settlement likely hinges on Maple's commitment to fully or largely repay user principal
- Possible settlement payment: the statement says "financial terms are confidential," implying Maple likely paid Core an undisclosed compensation in exchange for Core dropping the lawsuit and waiving exclusivity
- Damage control: CORE token had already dropped about 90% in 2025; ongoing litigation exposure was continuously bleeding token price and community confidence. Ending the dispute stops the bleeding
3. Why this is not "free traffic"
Your feeling—"Core helped Maple validate the sector, and in the end Maple jumped ship with the resources to do it themselves"—is valid on a business level. But behind this are several harsh realities:
1. The lstBTC model itself is already broken
Observers have pointed out that lstBTC's yield source was actually CORE token inflation/subsidies, not real Bitcoin interest. After CORE token price plummeted 90%, this yield model became unsustainable. Even if Maple had not jumped ship, lstBTC might have naturally died due to the token economic model collapse.
2. The fragility of hybrid DeFi contracts
This case exposed the structural risk of "on-chain products, off-chain contracts." Maple is an independent, mature DeFi platform with technical capability and user base. The 24-month exclusivity agreement is valid on paper, but in an open-source, permissionless industry, preventing a mature platform from developing competing products is nearly impossible. Litigation can delay but cannot stop it forever.
3. Core's strategic shift
The settlement statement says Core will "continue focusing on advancing the Core network and expanding its Bitcoin product offerings." This implies Core has abandoned the lstBTC path through Maple, opting instead to build infrastructure itself or seek new partners. The marginal benefit of dwelling on old disputes is now less than looking forward.
4. Summary
The essence of this settlement agreement is:
Maple bought the freedom to launch competing products with money/commitments (confidential terms); Core exchanged exclusivity rights for the practical benefits of ending litigation, preserving user assets, and stopping token price bleeding.
So Maple continues to push syrupBTC not because it "won" or Core "backed down," but because in the middle of the commercial war, both sides realized the cost of continuing exceeded the benefits. Maple gained product freedom; Core gained damage control and possible compensation—this is a typical "out-of-court division" outcome in the crypto industry.
As for whether the $150 million Bitcoin deposits can safely return to users, that is the true touchstone of this settlement. If Maple ultimately repays users' principal in full, it shows $CORE's tough stance (injunction application, public pressure) indeed protected the community; if users are ultimately "impaired," then this settlement is truly a failure.
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #OKX预言家第二季正式上线 #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元 比特币要想2030年冲到100万美元，其实真正的难题不是想象力，而是资金。从6万美元到100万美元，差的不是一点点 比特币市值估算 当比特币价格在6.28万美元附近时，总市值约为1.28万亿美元。若未来上涨至100万美元一枚，对应市值将进入一个完全不同的量级。 按市值差额粗略计算，比特币还需要增加约15万亿美元的体量。这相当于美国股市市值中相当可观的一部分，而且要在2030年前完成，难度远高于早期从几百美元、几千美元向上突破。 体量越大，暴涨越难 比特币早期市值较小，少量新增资金就可能明显推动价格。但当资产规模进入万亿美元级别后，每一次翻倍都需要更庞大的资金承接。 这也是“百万美元比特币”面临的核心问题：价格目标可以很大胆，但最终必须有真实购买力支撑。 与此同时，高价也可能改变散户心理。很多人更愿意拥有“1枚比特币”，而不是0.01枚甚至更少。当单枚价格越来越高，这种心理门槛可能进一步影响零售需求。 百万美元，更像极端情景下的目标 Brian Armstrong、Jack Dorsey、Cathie Wood等人都曾公开谈到比特币未来达到100万美元的可能性，这类整数目标天然容易吸引市#Anthropic annual revenue reaches $65 billion
"$65 billion annualized, how to calculate Anthropic's IPO"
Anthropic's annualized revenue is $65 billion, it was still $47 billion in May, a 40% jump in two months. Before the hype, let's break down the metric: run rate is the recent profit speed multiplied directly to annualize it, a snapshot at one point in time, the actual full-year cash received is very likely lower than this.
I signed the Claude Code team version for the company in the first half of the year, the monthly fee climbed from a few thousand to tens of thousands, finance asked if I wanted to cut it, I said wait another quarter. No one reminded me then, my renewal orders were stacking up into its revenue. Among the top 10 wealth companies, 8 are clients, over a thousand enterprises pay over a million dollars annually, these subscription orders are the foundation of the $65 billion.
A group friend forwarded a message saying the IPO valuation is rumored to approach 2 trillion, don't get off before listing. My calculation is different. Its Q2 single quarter was 11.5 billion, more than doubling quarter-on-quarter, the $65 billion annualized can sustain this slope. Pricing only tests two points: whether Q3 run rate matches the 11.5 billion growth rate, and how big the cash income gap is against the $65 billion in the prospectus.
On the day the IPO threshold was lowered, I took half the run rate as an anchor, if it doesn't match, wait for the break price. $65 billion is the slope, cash is the landing point. $BTC $BTC $60K Defense and Selling Pressure Relief: Remaining Issue is Spot ETF Demand Recovery
$BTC is consolidating in the $63,300~$63,600 range while holding the $60,000 support line.
Exchange net inflows have sharply dropped from +3,507 BTC to a range of +29~+680 BTC, indicating that immediate selling pressure has eased.
STH SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio): Tracks realized profits and losses of short-term investors who purchased coins within the last 155 days to gauge market sentiment and indicators of panic selling.
Realized profits and losses near cost price: The average cost for STH is about $67,300 (unrealized loss -6%), but the STH SOPR is 0.996, showing that this is not panic selling but an orderly cost price consolidation.
Derivatives overheating relief: Funding rates (0.00465%~0.01%) and open interest have slightly decreased, confirming a natural leverage reduction without forced liquidations.
Weak institutional spot demand: Weekly Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $385 million, limiting upward momentum.
Selling pressure has calmed, but there is a lack of buying ammunition (spot demand), making a $60,000~$65,000 range-bound market more likely.
If $60,000 support breaks accompanied by increased exchange deposits, downside risk may open toward the $50,000 level, warranting caution. Recent discussions about the rules of the U.S. GENIUS Act are most easily glossed over by the phrase "stablecoins are regulated." But what really needs to be unfolded are four different issues: who issues the issue, who establishes, who is responsible for signing, and who has the power to freeze or reject a transfer. The proposed rules advanced by the U.S. Treasury, FinCEN, and OFAC focus on anti-money laundering, sanctions compliance, and issuance eligibility for payment stablecoin issuers. What conditions the issuer must meet, and how a non-custodial wallet allows users to view balances, select networks, and initiate signatures, are different levels of responsibility. You can't just equate the wallet with the issuer just because it provides an entry point; Nor should we assume all risks are unrelated to the wallet just because the wallet does not hold the user's private key. What users really need to understand is the chain of control for the asset. Who issues the stablecoin determines whether it has freezes, redemptions, or compliance restrictions; Who runs the wallet determines how the interface displays risk and transaction status; Who controls the private key determines who can initiate on-chain signatures; The permission design of the underlying contract determines whether the issuer can perform certain management actions. If these roles are mixed together, users will reach two mistaken conclusions: either they believe "putting them in the wallet means no restrictions at all," or they believe "as long as the platform complies, signing whatever they want is fine." Neither is correct. A better wallet experience isn't about hiding the rules, but about clearly explaining the network, asset issuer, authorization scope, and possible freezing conditions before transferring. Self-custody solves key control, noBTC领涨带动市场修复，但ETF资金仍偏弱、稳定币增量有限，当前更像BTC主导的谨慎反弹，而不是全面Risk-on。 📊 市场快照 截至08月18日09:30 HKT： BTC $64,271，24h +1.91% ETH $1,905.62，24h +0.66% SOL $75.82，24h +0.86% 加密总市值约 $2.283万亿，24h +1.27% BTC市占率 56.52% 恐惧与贪婪指数 41（恐惧），前值31。 今天最明显的变化，是BTC重新成为领涨核心。总市值明显回升，但BTC市占率仍然维持高位，说明资金首先回到流动性最强的核心资产，而不是全面扩散到中小市值币。 情绪也在修复，恐惧指数从31升至41，但还没有脱离“恐惧”区域。 所以现阶段更准确的定义是： BTC主导的谨慎修复。 还不能直接定义成全面风险偏好回归。 💰 ETF仍是这轮反弹最大的缺口 虽然BTC过去24小时上涨接近2%，但美国现货BTC ETF最近一周合计仍净流出约： 3.90亿美元 这意味着目前价格修复和机构资金之间还没有完全形成共振。 截至本次截稿，美国8月17日交易日的完整ETF数据还没有可靠The U.S. Treasury Department has recently released the June TIC International Capital Flows Report, a seemingly cold data piece that reveals the deep changes currently underway in the U.S. Treasury market. In June, overseas investors reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $72.1 billion in a single month. In the past four months, foreign capital has been net sellers for three months, with total overseas holdings falling to $9.299 trillion, far from the historic high of $9.4894 trillion set in February this year. It is worth noting that the position data includes both actual buying and selling and valuation changes caused by market value floating losses, but the overall decline for several consecutive months can no longer be simply attributed to short-term portfolio adjustments. The top three overseas creditors have simultaneously chosen to withdraw. Breaking down the holdings list, the signal is especially clear. Japan reduced its holdings by $26.4 billion, making it the country with the largest share reduction this time, with holdings reaching $1.1167 trillion. The yen remains under pressure. Japan had previously been forced to sell US Treasuries in exchange for US dollars to stabilize its exchange rate, and the June reduction indicates that the selling has not stopped immediately. This directly explains the underlying motivation behind the rare joint intervention by the US and Japan in July. The U.S. fears Japan recklessly selling U.S. Treasuries to support the yen; if a large-scale sell-off occurs, U.S. Treasury yields will be directly pushed up, and the U.S. government's own financing costs will become overwhelming. Therefore, the U.S. proactively used FIMA's buyback tool to help Japan avoid the direct sale of long-term bonds. China's U.S. Treasury holdings in June decreased by $25.9 billion to $633.4 billion, marking the lowest level since September 2008. Over the past year, overall holdings have dropped by more than 13%, indicating a clear direction for continued asset diversificationOriginally, 19.75M $PIEVERSE scheduled to unlock on 8.14
Transferred out from a multisig wallet in three batches: 8.5M / 6.25M / 5M, each going to three different addresses. Two of the receiving addresses are from the batch unlocked and transferred 3 months ago.
Currently, this group of related addresses holds a total of 75.97M $PIEVERSE, valued at about 74.2 million USD, accounting for nearly 25% of the circulating supply.
The chips are still very concentrated; when it pumps depends on when the whale moves.
One address of Hex Trust has repeatedly withdrawn $CHIP from BN multiple times in the past two months, with a fixed fund path: BN withdrawal then transferred to downstream address 0x6b5. This address currently holds 28.6M $CHIP, valued at 800,000 USD. It also holds the old friend $lit, mostly withdrawn in multiple batches from Gate two months ago, holding 386K $lit valued at 891,000 USD.
Additionally, $chip has no recent unlocks; the large-scale unlock cycle for Team Investor starts in April 2027. Currently, it is retesting the 4h support level; continuous observation is advised.#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #OKX预言家第二季正式上线 This morning, the first thing I looked at was not the cryptocurrency prices, but crude oil and U.S. Treasury bonds.
Brent crude rose to $91.06, and the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond surged to 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007. Rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, and long-term bonds raise funding costs; this combination is challenging for tech stocks and Crypto alike.
Overnight, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%; however, Asia showed divergence, with the KOSPI rebounding over 3%, while the Nikkei declined 0.3%. This looks more like capital searching for oversold directions rather than a full return of risk appetite.
$BTC is currently around $64,150, and $ETH about $1,910, with little change in gains. But holding steady amid rising oil prices and interest rates indicates that selling pressure has not yet expanded. However, until BTC closes above $65,000 with volume, I only consider it as holding up against the decline, not rushing to define it as a reversal; if it falls below $62,500 again, the sideways structure may still loosen downward. ETH needs to first hold above $1,900 to have a chance to continue relative strength.
For today’s market, would you interpret BTC’s firm hold as a signal of strengthening, or continue to wait for confirmation above $65,000? The total crypto market cap has touched $2.28 trillion, with mainstream coins collectively pulling back, but a closer look reveals clear internal differentiation.
BTC is hovering around $64,400, ETH at $1,910, SOL at 75.8, and XRP has reclaimed the $1 mark. Prices have bounced back, but the driving forces vary.
There are two news items worth pondering. The U.S. Treasury has officially advanced the GENIUS Act regulations, gradually implementing a stablecoin regulatory framework, clearly outlining issuance qualifications, 1:1 reserves, and audit disclosures. Improved compliance expectations positively boost risk appetite across the industry.
More attention should be paid to ETH. Bitmine added nearly 10,000 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to 5.815 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply, just a step away from the 5% target. Crucially, over 87% of these holdings are staked and locked — this is not short-term speculation but a firm long-term allocation. Even with unrealized losses, the regular investment pace hasn’t stopped, providing solid bottom support for ETH.
In contrast, BTC’s situation is a bit subtle. Strategy paused accumulation last week and instead sold stocks to increase cash reserves, which rose to $4.8 billion. This BTC rebound is more about repairing existing funds, lacking top-tier institutional inflows, so the momentum naturally can’t match ETH’s.
Among altcoins, LINK stands out, rising nearly 15% in a week, showing an independent rally. SOL and XRP are still following the broader market’s breath, with no clear signs of independent strength.
In trading, BTC’s short-term bottom line is between 64,000-64,100 below, with resistance at 64,500-64,800 above. Only a firm break above 64,800 can target the 65,000-65,500 range. Overall, it’s still a pattern of repairing existing holdings, so don’t let your guard down just because of two days of gains. Opened the market software this morning, and BTC quietly climbed back above $64,000, with ETH also nudging close to $1,900.
On the surface, it looks green, but seasoned players know—this wave isn’t new money rushing in wildly; it’s the shorts from last night being squeezed out slowly like "toothpaste being squeezed," with about $180 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, mostly shorts. This is a classic "short covering rebound."
In plain terms:
The market isn’t truly heating up; it’s just catching its breath after a big drop.
Institutional spot ETFs were still seeing net outflows last week (around $390 million), so the faucet has been turned down a bit;
The Fed’s minutes from 8/20 haven’t been released yet, so no one dares to bet heavily in advance—they’re all waiting for the "report card."
At times like this, the most common feeling is—
You don’t dare chase the rise, nor catch the fall; your phone buzzes and your heart races, only to see another fakeout.
By the way, two interesting things:
- The White House is holding a crypto summit this week, with familiar faces like Coinbase, Ripple, and Robinhood attending. The theme inevitably revolves around RWA and tokenization. Ondo’s on-chain US stock TVL has surpassed $1 billion; tokenizing stocks is no longer just a PPT concept.
- The US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices up, gold is strong, and BTC has temporarily decoupled from US stocks, showing some "safe-haven" vibes. But this filter is fragile—one hawkish Fed minute and it shatters.
My current stance:
Position unchanged, stop-loss tightened, not falling in love with this single bullish candle. #Strategy上周出售3 34 million USD in stocks, boosting US dollar reserves. Strategy sold $334 million in stocks in one week and increased US dollar reserves. Complete analysis 1. Event background. Last week, MicroStrategy sold $334 million worth of its own common stock to raise funds and expand its US dollar cash reserves. During the same period, there were no Bitcoin purchases, continuing the company's weeks of stock reduction, leverage, and cash accumulation. Previously, the company had long hoarded BTC through stock issuance, but now it has completely shifted its capital strategy, shifting from "unlimited stock issuance and coin hoarding" to prudent capital management. II. Core Purpose of Selling Stocks and Increasing US Dollar Cash 1. Repaying interest on preferred shares to eliminate debt repayment risk. The company issues a large number of preferred shares, putting enormous pressure on fixed dividend payments. The market's biggest previous concern: if cash flow is insufficient, companies will be forced to sell Bitcoin at low prices to repay debts. After this sale, cash reserves rose to $4.8 billion, enough to cover long-term dividends, significantly alleviating negative expectations of "passive BTC dumping" and reducing the risk of holding stampedes. 2. Proactively reducing leverage to mitigate stock price volatility Previously, MSTR's stock price was deeply tied to BTC, causing fluctuations at US stock levels and repeated rate hike expectations caused the company's equity financing costs to soar. Reduce stock holdings to reduce dilution of outstanding shares, while holding a US dollar buffer to avoid ineffective financing channels during market downturns. Over the past five weeks, it has sold a total of $2.1 billion in stocks, continuously shrinking equity exposure. 3. Keep your ammunition flexible, position your BTC at the right time, stop hoarding coins, and hold US dollars[Aheng On Duty Today | August 18]
Yesterday's rebound received preliminary confirmation from the ETF, but it cannot yet be defined as a full-strength turnaround.
Data as of: August 18, 09:58 (Beijing Time)
BTC has returned above $64,000
BTC is around $64,267, up about 1.8% in 24 hours; ETH around $1,905, up about 0.7%; SOL around $75.81, up about 0.8%.
The total crypto market cap is about $2.20 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume rising to about $50.6 billion, showing a significant volume increase compared to the previous day.
However, BTC dominance rose to 58.76%, and the Fear & Greed Index only increased from 38 to 40. BTC's gains lead ETH and SOL, indicating that new funds are still concentrated in top assets rather than a broad-based rally. Market Data | Sentiment Index
BTC ETF ends continuous net outflows
Farside's current aggregated data shows that on August 17, the US BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $137.3 million.
Among them, Fidelity's FBTC net inflow was about $111.9 million, the main contributor; ARKB and Morgan Stanley products had inflows of about $14.2 million and $11.2 million respectively.
Note: The IBIT column still shows "-" currently, so while the net inflow direction is clear, the final amount may still be adjusted.
ETH ETF had only about $5 million net inflow, SOL ETF was zero. BTC ETF | ETH ETF | SOL ETF
Yesterday's judgment partially verified
Two verification conditions written yesterday:
First, BTC stabilizes above $64,000;
Second, BTC ETF ends net outflows.
Currently, the price has broken through $64,000, and ETF has resumed net inflows, preliminarily verifying the conditions.
But "breakthrough" and "stabilize" are not the same, and a single day inflow does not represent sustained return. Continued observation is needed to see if BTC can maintain above $64,000 and if ETF can keep net inflows for two to three consecutive trading days.
Focus on US industrial data tonight
At 21:15 Beijing Time tonight, the US will release July industrial production and capacity utilization data.
If the data is strong, the market may reassess the duration of high interest rates; if weak, it will be necessary to distinguish between "moderate cooling" and "rising growth risks."
At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on August 20, the Fed will also release July meeting minutes. The real focus is on the committee's disagreements on inflation, economic growth, and the future interest rate path. Fed Schedule
Aheng's judgment:
Market structure has improved from "rebound unconfirmed" to "BTC receiving preliminary fund confirmation."
But ETH and SOL fund flows remain weak, BTC dominance continues to rise, so the current situation is closer to BTC-led recovery rather than a full return of risk appetite.
Invalidation conditions:
If BTC falls back below $64,000 and ETF resumes net outflows, this round of fund confirmation fails.
Further confirmation conditions:
BTC stays above $64,000, ETF has continuous net inflows, and ETH and SOL fund flows improve simultaneously.
Look at the funds first, then listen to the story; write invalidation conditions first, then opinions.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. One relies on Layer2 for expansion, the other on Layer2 to find possibilities: the scaling paths of BTC and ETH are diverging
Looking at the scaling of these two chains now, it's really not about who is faster or slower; the paths themselves have forked.
On the $ETH side, applications come first, then scaling. L2 TVL has long surpassed the tens of billions of dollars level, with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism taking turns as growth engines. Base is one of the fastest-growing L2s this year, with user numbers and transaction counts surging. But the awkward part is that ETH mainnet is clearly being drained, with fee revenue and on-chain activity shifting to L2. So ETH's problem is not lack of users, but how to prevent value from being siphoned off to L2.
On the $BTC side, it's the opposite. It holds over $800 billion in assets but remains mostly idle long-term, with extremely limited application scenarios. Now projects like Stacks, BitVM, and Babylon are starting to try BTCFi, aiming to move this capital into lending, interest-bearing, and stablecoin scenarios. However, the BTC ecosystem's capital scale is still far below ETH's; not to mention tens of billions, it doesn't even reach a fraction of ETH L2 TVL. The narrative is hot, but the foundation is still thin. BTC's problem has never been lack of money, but lack of use cases.
ETH is solving for usage scale, BTC is searching for use cases. One fears L2 cannibalizing the mainnet, the other hopes L2 will unlock assets.
This is just a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. Just saw a guy jump in and make a bold move, opening a 40x short on BTC. This kind of trade isn’t about being brave; it’s about having a terrifyingly low tolerance for error.
Coin: BTC.
Leverage: 40x.
Direction: Short.
Entry price: 63,916.00.
Position size: $976,291, quantity 15.2746.
Trades like this look fierce, but the biggest fear is a sudden spike that blindsides you, especially with BTC—when volatility hits, it doesn’t care about logic.
Shorting is fine, but betting with 40x leverage often isn’t about solid logic, it’s emotional hype. If the market moves against you, you won’t even have room to breathe. Holding on stubbornly just turns small mistakes into big disasters.
Admit your mistakes when you need to. Taking a loss isn’t shameful—it’s better than waiting to be taught a harsh lesson. Don’t argue with the market; the market always wins against stubbornness.In the PCB industry chain, this is one of the semiconductor fields I am most optimistic about in the second half of the year. I believe it can replace the market position of optical modules!
Previously, what I was particularly optimistic about was:
Due to Ajinomoto Japan reducing its supply to China by 30%, Huazheng New Materials (CBF film), which substitutes ABF film, has already recorded two consecutive limit-ups.
Yesterday, an institution proposed that the RCC (resin-coated copper foil) process is an msap alternative process that eliminates the constraints of electronic cloth and ABF film perfectly.
RCC is expected to be more suitable for the upgrade demands of 3.2/6.4T optical modules, glass substrates, and carrier boards in AIPCB in the future.
China is already in a leading position in RCC. The comprehensive solution of RCC materials and processes has been introduced and verified by multiple domestic customers. Relevant companies can study this on their own $BTC 1. I don't know if it's metaphysical, but October seems to be a key month for crypto (see Figure 1):
1. In October 2022, the ultimate crypto crisis broke out, and then in November and December, the bottom formation was completed, starting a bull market;
2. In October 2023, after a long six-month sideways market (20% volatility), the bull market started in October;
3. In October 2024, again after a long six-month shakeout, the market started against the trend in October;
4. In October 2025, marked by the 1011 event, a bull-bear turning point;
5. October 2026 is also currently a strongly consistent bull-bear transition node in the information flow I can access.
2. Some other points to mention:
1. Compared to now, in the past, just playing CRYPTO was basically a super simple mode;
Bitcoin's high growth + strong cycles brought overall prosperity to the crypto space. Almost as long as you caught the cycle and held your coins without messing around, it was basically the password to getting rich quickly;
However, this simple mode has gradually become ineffective due to ① Bitcoin's market cap growing larger and cycle volatility decreasing, and ② the 2023-2025 bull market cycle altcoin narratives being widely falsified;
In the future, the normal state of the crypto space we may face is that Bitcoin's ultra-high volatility attribute will decrease, and the future path of altcoins, at least now in the bear market, we still don't see the answer and need to wait for the bull market to see how capital plays.
2. As crypto exchanges massively embrace US stocks, gold, silver, and oil, it marks the complete connection of crypto with traditional markets, no longer a niche punk island;
So, what I want to say is: whoever can adapt to this rhythm faster, whoever can accept new things more quickly and steadily, will continue to make money;
PS: Don't be afraid, actually US stocks are not difficult, just with fundamentals added; technical analysis, candlestick patterns, indicators are basically the same as Bitcoin; as for other things like macro, wars, tariff wars: facts have proven they are just interludes.
3. I believe that for crypto veterans entering the new era of trading US stocks, position allocation remains crucial: (70% BTC, 30% altcoins, familiar, right?)
But the market is bigger, so we need to be more detailed. For example, if you put 70% of your 200 on $NVDA, then your whole year is basically wasted.
① Which are suitable for long-term holding, which for short-term?
US stocks can trap people even worse than crypto! I know friends trapped in Novo Nordisk for over a year, watching Eli Lilly perform every day;
② Which are suitable for a bit of leverage or financing, which are only suitable for spot holding?
Distinguish high volatility, low volatility, and stock characteristics.
③ Which can be traded back and forth as faith stocks? Which are only suitable for one wave?
Bitcoin and altcoins? Actually, applying one logic, there's not much difference from crypto.
4. I think the most important is rhythm.
In recent years, not to mention the AI industry itself, just the AI-related financial markets; the rhythm changes very fast, and if you're not careful, you might fall behind the market;
From computing power speculation to today's storage, or the next step CSP, light, the time to switch tracks is very short. Basically, every major round of correction, with old popular targets retreating, can incubate a new round of opportunities.
To summarize:
US stocks and crypto are no different; the underlying logic of trading is the same; so, be bold and brave!
Mastering rhythm and reasonable position allocation are fundamentals. If you have already mastered the basics in crypto, then US stocks will be like a fish in water; if you haven't, be cautious when you first arrive.
US stock opportunities are continuous and fast. When crypto markets are boring, actively embrace US stocks and accumulate ammunition, but don't ignore that the crypto bull market cycle is not far away; so every dollar you earn now in US stocks will be 10 dollars in crypto in the future.
Finally, it's not far off. Wait for October, your original family will give you an answer. $BTC #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $CAP maintains strong support at the high level of 0.07846, with the core conflict centered on whether the short squeeze momentum driven by negative funding rates in the contracts can offset the medium- to long-term unlocking pressure and fundamental realization pace under a high FDV.
The market shows characteristics of high-level sideways consolidation. After surging to 0.07846 USDT on August 14, there was no significant pullback. The low initial circulating supply of 15.6% has suppressed earlier spot selling pressure. The contract side continues to show negative funding rates and mainly shorts being liquidated, indicating that long positions have a relatively low cost basis, while shorting funds provide a buffer against downside.
The core driving forces behind the price, in order of priority, are: short squeezes caused by negative funding rates on contracts, concentration of market chips due to low initial circulation, and narrative support from $11 million private financing and Q3 targets.
The trigger for the bullish scenario is a breakout above the 0.07846 USDT resistance level accompanied by an increase in open interest. It is necessary to observe whether the contract funding rate remains negative and the scale of short liquidations. If the funding rate quickly turns from negative to positive and long positions surge, the squeeze rally ends and the bullish scenario immediately fails.
The trigger for the bearish scenario is a price drop below the lower boundary of the sideways range with insufficient support. It is necessary to monitor whether TVL growth deviates from the $500 million target and the flow of large spot orders. If continuous large sell orders appear, the valuation repair scenario will start, accelerating the release of downward pressure caused by the high FDV.
The consolidation scenario holds when the funding rate returns to neutral and the overall market lacks a clear direction. During this phase, focus on the degree of spot volume contraction; if volume shrinks to less than one-third of the previous average, it indicates that the balance between bulls and bears is about to be broken.
Regardless of the path taken, when the sentiment preference backed by the $11 million financing fades, the existing chip structure will face revaluation. If overall market risk appetite significantly declines, the contract short squeeze logic will take precedence over the fundamental narrative collapse.
The most critical variables to watch over the next 7 days are the convergence direction of $CAP contract funding rates and volume changes within the high-level sideways range.
#标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 AMD's move this time isn't a sign of a lack of cash, but rather a way to restock while prices are low. Pricing was completed on 8/13 and closing on 8/17. AMD's bond issuance totaled $4.75 billion, making it the largest corporate bond issuance in the company's history. There are four terms, ranging from 3 to 10 years, with interest rates ranging from 4.6% to 5.5%. Due to strong market demand, the final pricing tightened by 0.25 percentage points compared to the original negotiations, with the longest-term spread only 0.9 percentage points higher than that of U.S. Treasuries—indicating investors are willing to lend money to AMD at nearly risk-free spreads. The purpose of the funds is listed as 'general corporate use,' without specifying specific projects or mergers and acquisitions. The company clearly states in its filing documents that it cannot be directly interpreted as dedicated funds for investing in specific AI chips or data centers. This loan scale is more than three times the amount issued last March. The real interesting part is that AMD is not short of money at all. As of the end of Q2, the company's cash and short-term investments reached $13.1 billion, with original debt of only $3.2 billion. After this loan is completed, total liabilities will rise to about $8 billion, but cash levels still far exceed liabilities, with cash on hand still nearly four times liabilities. The background of this money comes from AMD's strong earnings report of 50% revenue growth and a 107% year-on-year increase in data center revenue, with capital expenditures surging from $494 million in the same period last year to $1.2 billion in the first half of this year. At the same time, AI giants like Nvidia and Google ($25 billion) are also issuing bonds intensivelyAccount Position Divergence Radar
Whether directional consensus is real or not can be known by comparing account proportions with top holdings.
$DOGE has more accounts leaning long, but top position weights lean short, indicating that the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position scale. There is a 15-minute decline with position reduction; currently, the clearest trend is position exit and deleveraging. If the price continues to strengthen but the top holdings ratio remains below 1, this divergence group has not truly converged.
$GPS accounts lean short, while top holdings lean long; the number of accounts and capital weights are on opposite sides. When the price rises, open interest (OI) increases simultaneously, indicating this is not a simple deleveraging phase; position attribution still requires transaction verification. The account side is already short-biased, so it depends on whether top positions are willing to shift their weight to the same side.
$PEPE as a whole and top accounts both lean long, but top position scale remains on the short side, representing a clear account/position divergence. Price rises while positions reduce, with the driving force more likely coming from old position exits. If the price moves up but top holdings continue to lean short, position measurement conflicts are still likely during pullbacks. The most noteworthy aspect of the $Huazhu Group (HTHT)$ Q2 financial report is not just the 10.8% revenue growth, but also the 25.2% increase in managed and franchised hotel revenue, driving a significant improvement in operating profit margin. However, Huazhu's established store RevPAR in China still declined year-on-year, and overseas business has not fully recovered, so this is not a financial report that only looks at total revenue and store openings. Let's look at the core data first: Huazhu's Q2 revenue was 7.121 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year; Hotel transaction volume reached 30.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. Operating profit was 2.218 billion yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year, with the operating profit margin rising to 31.1%, higher than 27.8% in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.577 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year; Adjusted EBITDA was 2.725 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. Profit margins improved faster than revenue growth, mainly because the income structure continued to tilt toward a light-asset model. Management and franchise business became the main incremental segment. Management and franchise hotel business Q2 revenue was 3.586 billion yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year, with its revenue share rising to 50.4%; Rental and self-owned hotel revenue fell 4.9% year-on-year to 3.233 billion yuan. Franchising and management businesses do not require significant rent and property costs, offering greater operational leverage when expanding. The improvement in Huazhu's profit margin this quarter is not only due to a rebound in hotel demand but also to asset-light income$CAP is indeed very strong: after launch, it first consolidated and then steadily rose, showing resistance to decline during high-level sideways trading. On the contract side, there is a negative funding rate and dominant short liquidations, which differs from most new coins that "dump immediately after launch." Why is it "stable": fundamentals and narrative - Project positioning: Cap is an Ethereum-based on-chain credit protocol aimed at bridging traditional finance and decentralized finance, providing collateralized credit services. - Three-layer architecture: composed of lenders, borrowers, and underwriters. Underwriters must pledge their own assets to guarantee loans and bear first-loss risk, alleviating credit risk issues in traditional DeFi. - Financing and endorsement: raised $11 million in private funding, with investors including Sandeep Nailwal, GSR, RockawayX, etc., supporting market confidence. - Growth targets: the team set Q3 2026 goals, including increasing TVL to $500 million, underwriter capital to $350 million, and issuing at least $100 million in loans, providing narrative anchors for token value. - Token model: $CAP is a governance and utility token with a total supply of 10 billion, initial circulation about 15.6%. Tokens held by the team and private investors have a 12-month lock-up period, making short-term selling pressure relatively controllable. Market aspect: strong performance in price and contracts - Price rhythm: after launch, about two weeks of consolidation followed by steady upward movement, with significant gains since July. - High-level sideways trading: after reaching a historical high of about 0.07846 USDT on August 14, it continued sideways at a high level for several days with limited pullback, showing strong support. - Negative contract funding rate: when funding rate is negative, shorts pay longs, which is more favorable for holding long positions and helps stabilize price at high levels. - Dominant short liquidations: during price fluctuations, short liquidations exceed longs, forming a "dominant short liquidation" pattern, further strengthening price resilience. Risk warning: don’t mistake "strong" for "risk-free" - Valuation and unlocking: current circulating market cap is about $110 million, but fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher; future unlocking by team and private investors may bring additional selling pressure, so pay attention to unlocking schedule. - TVL and performance fulfillment: whether the project can continuously meet TVL and loan issuance targets will directly affect market confidence and price performance. - High-level volatility: large short-term gains and overheated sentiment mean that if market risk appetite declines or large profit-taking occurs, sharp corrections may still happen. $CAP’s strength comes from fundamental narrative, capital structure, and positive feedback on the contract side; however, chasing highs requires more caution, with position sizing and stop-loss as top priorities. #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $BTC What exactly is happening with Bitcoin? The "riding the wave" strategy amid the short squeeze wave—is this a bull party or a bear's funeral?
In the arena of cryptocurrency battles, price is never an isolated fluctuating number but a product of the resonance among capital, sentiment, and macro events. As of August 18, 2026, the Bitcoin market is staging an epic "short squeeze" drama, with prices strongly breaking through the $64,000 mark. Facing such a volatile market, how should ordinary investors use real-time data and the "riding the wave" strategy to navigate steadily through the waves?
Bull-Bear Struggle and Macro Resonance
The current Bitcoin market is dominated by three core hotspots, which form the underlying logic of our "riding the wave" approach:
1. The "meat grinder" effect in the derivatives market: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $220 million, with a very high proportion of short liquidations. Especially on the Hyperliquid platform, two major short positions totaling $169 million near $65,100 are facing precise liquidation. This concentrated stop-loss of highly leveraged shorts directly fuels continuous upward momentum for the bulls.
2. The "double positive" macro factors: The US and Iran agreed to extend the ceasefire, eliminating geopolitical risk premiums; meanwhile, a weaker dollar and cooling Fed rate hike expectations have greatly increased Bitcoin's appeal as a hard asset.
3. The "weather vane" of institutional funds: Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones' company has repurchased the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, breaking a 12-month streak of net selling and injecting strong confidence into the market.
From the perspective of quantitative traders, monitoring real-time prices should not only focus on price changes but also on the combined signals of "price + volume + open interest + depth." The core of the "riding the wave" strategy is not to predict the wave peaks but to identify the momentum after wave formation, follow the trend, and exit before the wave exhausts.
1. Riding the "short liquidation" momentum (short-term momentum)
- Data signals: When the price breaks key resistance levels (e.g., $64,200) accompanied by a sharp drop in open interest (OI) and a surge in liquidation volume, it indicates shorts are being passively closed.
- Riding action: At this time, do not blindly chase the highs but wait for a price pullback to confirm support (e.g., $63,600–$64,000 range) before lightly going long. The target can be the dense short liquidation zone ($64,800–$65,500). Once liquidation volume sharply decreases and price stagnates, it signals "wave exhaustion" and requires decisive profit-taking.
2. Riding the "macro and institutional" momentum (mid-term positioning)
- Data signals: Pay attention to net inflow/outflow data of spot ETFs and exchange reserves. Current exchange BTC reserves have risen to 1.332 million coins, indicating institutions may be accumulating via OTC rather than direct market buying, providing implicit price support.
- Riding action: For mid-to-long-term investors, the current "fear" sentiment index (31–40) is actually a good opportunity to build positions gradually on dips. Use the time window where macro positives are not fully priced in to establish a base between $62,500–$63,000, ignoring short-term sharp fluctuations.
3. Beware of the "crowding trap" (risk control)
- Data signals: Although bulls currently dominate, watch for changes in funding rates. If the USDT-margined funding rate remains positive and high, it indicates excessive bull crowding, which could trigger a reverse harvest at any time.
- Riding action: Set strict stop losses. Survival is more important than profit in leveraged markets. Single trade risk exposure should not exceed 5% of total capital; avoid heavy leverage during short squeeze climaxes.
III. The Surfer's Cold Reflection
Tonight's bulls deserve celebration, but rational traders must see the hidden risks: last week saw a $390 million net outflow from spot ETFs, and Coinbase premiums remain negative, suggesting the current rebound may be more of a "technical pullback" than a complete trend reversal.
The essence of the "riding the wave" strategy is not to catch every wave but to identify which waves are worth riding and which are just undercurrents. At the $64,000 level, we should enjoy the upside dividends brought by short liquidations but keep a close eye on the "life-or-death line" at $65,100. If the price fails to break through effectively or liquidation momentum dries up, it is time for surfers to pack up and get ashore.
The market never lacks opportunities; what is lacking is the discipline to stay clear-headed amid frenzy and dare to act amid fear. May every surfer ride the wave of this digital gold tide safely to shore. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 ？ Bitcoin is still trading sideways in the range of $62,000 to $66,000. Five weeks ago it was at $63,000, and five weeks later it remains at $63,000. The highs have repeatedly tested $65,000 and failed, the lows at $62,000 stubbornly hold, with daily volatility under 2%. The entire market feels like it has been put on pause—this is not a joke, but a true reflection. 10x Research's report points out that Bitcoin trading volume has dropped to a fraction of what it was after the U.S. presidential inauguration and during last October's flash crash peak, with prices entering the narrowest volatility range in months. Some analyses even say BTC spot trading volume has fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low. Simply put—no one is trading. ETF buying: fluctuating repeatedly In the first week of August, 13 U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the largest single-week inflow since April. However, the second week reversed sharply with a net outflow of $390 million. Fidelity's FBTC became the main outflow driver. From August 12 to 14, it lost $61.1 million, $131 million, and $56.2 million consecutively. Some analysts describe this ETF outflow as the "largest scale since the end of June." Can ETF buying recover? Honestly, the short-term outlook is not optimistic. First, incremental funds are gone. The large ETF buying earlier has already priced in the upward expectations. BTC's current state is "not falling deeply, nor rising," which is even more frustrating than a crash. Second, the macro environment is not supportive. Overall CPI rose year-over-year in July BTC Margin at -1.73σ, Binance Lies Flat and Neutral: Who's Liing? OKX BTC -1.73σ deep green, only 0.07σ from the trigger line, marking the start of the re-examination of the line. But all three barriers failed: (2) Binance BTC -0.32σ yellow zone shows no convergence; (5) OKX Whales at 0.30 Extreme Bearish vs. Binance at 1.48 Bullish, Deviating from the 1.18 Strong Clash; FG 40 Neutral Not Extreme, Largest Movement Across the Chart: Sentiment Split Between Two Firms. OKX BTC fee rate is 0.00657% →0.00235%, a sharp drop of 64%. The 7-day deviation is -0.85σ →-1.73σ deep green. But Binance's BTC fee rate reversed to +39.6%, -0.58σ→-0.32σ yellow zone—OKX calls for extreme bearishness, Binance says it's fine. ETH is even more dramatic: OKX 7-day +0.06σ yellow→-1.50σ deep green (1-day reversal), 14-day +0.71σ light orange→-0.47σ yellow, cycle divergence. OKX is panicking, Binance is neutral. Who's lying? Sentiment and Capital: Clearing out high-volatility energy, not trending energy. Panic greed: CMC 40 Neutral, CoinGlass 30 Fear, dual-source Gap 10 points. 24-hour settlement at $222.19M↑213.29%, trading volume $148.68B↑132.33%, OI 122.04B unchanged. The surge in volume is the aftermath of a stop-loss chain residual, not the start of a trend. Today's biggest gain: ≠ opening positions. BTCBrothers, today let's continue talking about $SNDK — this stock's recent volatility is even crazier than small-cap altcoins.
Just checked the data, SNDK is really a tough player, rising from $235 to $2354 within the year, then dropping to $1119, and now bouncing back near $1741. Within one year, it went up 6 times from the starting point, then dropped 50%, then bounced 50% again. This kind of fluctuation is unique across the entire US stock market.
📊 Core logic behind the rebound: The new framework gives the market a “confidence boost”
The bounce back from $1119 is mainly driven by the new financial framework announced at last year's investor day:
First, clear revenue growth targets
The company expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high teens percentage annually during fiscal years 2028-2030, with adjusted gross margin maintained around 80%. An 80% gross margin is alien-level data in manufacturing.
Second, new business model reduces cyclicality
The company has signed multi-year supply agreements with multiple data center customers, improving visibility into customer demand. US bank analyst Vivek Arya said this suggests the industry may enter a more sustained phase than the traditional boom-bust cycle.
Third, Musk’s remarks ignite the market
Musk recently called memory the “main bottleneck” for AI expansion, which the market interprets as a long-term positive for the memory industry.
📈 Technical perspective: $1,850 is the watershed
From market data:
· Monday’s close was $1,786.85, a single-day surge of 8.88%, with a trading volume of $30.9 billion, second highest in the entire US stock market
· Today’s intraday high reached $1,827.99, piercing into the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone at $1,836
· Short-term overbought is severe: 4-hour RSI as high as 89, MACD shows high-level bearish divergence, chasing highs is very risky
· Support below: $1,655 (MA5 and S1 resonance), $1,620 (Bollinger middle band)
Key judgment: $1,836-$1,850 is an “easy reversal zone” for the technical rebound, not an “end zone.” If it breaks above $1,850, look toward $2,060; if not, wait for a pullback to $1,676-$1,516 to see if it holds.
💰 My view
From a longer-term perspective, analysts’ 12-month median target price is $2,107, about 20% upside from current levels. CNBC technical analyst Katie Stockton also pointed out that SNDK has confirmed a short-term breakout and is likely to move toward the $2,354 all-time high.
My strategy:
· For those holding positions: consider reducing some near $1,850 to lock in profits, then buy back on pullbacks
· For those wanting to enter: wait for a pullback to $1,650-$1,670 to confirm stability before entering; don’t chase at $1,800, above $1,850 is a danger zone
· For those wanting to short: try light positions if the rebound near $1,850 lacks strength, stop loss at $1,880
The essence of SNDK is a double play of “AI hardware narrative + new business model” — strong long-term logic, large short-term volatility. The key is whether you can hold at $1,100 and resist chasing at $1,850.
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $ETH still looks like it's oscillating upward:
Volatility has been compressed to the extreme, with the price grinding within a narrow range of 70 dollars between 1850-1920 for almost two weeks. After such a tight consolidation, a direction must emerge. Currently, the buying support at 1850 is very strong (the price tested 1850 twice and didn't break it). Since it held, I believe the rebound trend is still intact, with a slightly higher probability of moving up.
The main point is that institutions haven't given up on ETH. The spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of 244.9 million dollars last week (the week of August 3), the strongest single week since mid-April. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed 203 million; although there was a slight net outflow of 16.3 million in the past two days, it hasn't reversed the trend, and the foundation of five consecutive weeks of net inflows remains.
The biggest switch is Fidelity staking—on August 11, Fidelity submitted a 100% staking amendment for FETH (with a scale of 8.98 billion dollars). Once approved by the SEC, it will allow holders to receive quarterly cash yields, effectively turning ETH into an interest-bearing asset. Once this takes effect, institutional demand will rise to a new level. Next week, the CLARITY Act will also enter the Senate voting window, both are potential catalysts for ETH.
So my view remains bullish unless it breaks below 1850. Next week, I will closely watch the progress of Fidelity's staking approval, as this is the only short-term trigger that can cause a significant surge for $ETH.BTC topped near $64,400 this morning, rising 2.5% in the past 24 hours. It looks lively, but on closer inspection—it's still oscillating within the big range between 62,500 and 65,500. Weekend trading was sparse, but volume picked up this morning, doubling over two days. The buying side is definitely active. However, the problem is that the price is right at the upper edge of the range, like stepping on the threshold; whether it can break through is still uncertain.
Interestingly, last night’s retail data was weak, interest rate hike expectations eased, and the dollar softened accordingly, with gold and crypto both rising. The macro environment set a decent stage. But don’t get too excited yet—ETFs saw a net outflow of $390 million last week, the largest single-week outflow in six weeks. Institutional money is pulling out, and this signal can’t be ignored.
For short-term trading, 64,650 is the first hurdle; only after surpassing it can we look at the 65,300-65,400 area. If it stalls during the day and can’t break through, a pullback to 63,500-64,000 without breaking below is a safer opportunity. Don’t chase at the upper edge of the range; buying there means a small gain if it rises, but you’re stuck if it falls—not worth it.
On gold, spot is around $4,425, daily chart above moving averages, short-term bullish bias, RSI at 61—there’s still room before overbought but not much. Short-term resistance is at 4,432-4,437.
Overall, the rebound is real and volume has picked up, but until the range is broken, it’s a range-bound game. Wait for confirmed breakout before acting; missing this one K-line isn’t a big deal.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, and the market is sharply divided.
1. Smartphone Business: The Core, but Facing the Most Short-Term Pressure
Smartphones are Xiaomi's core business. Currently, the strategy is to control volume and protect profits by actively cutting many low-end models, raising the average selling price, and using product mix to offset shipment declines.
✅ Bullish logic: Continued push towards high-end models, the pressure from rising storage prices will marginally ease later, overseas market base is stable, and it serves as the traffic entry point for the entire ecosystem. Without smartphones, IoT and internet services cannot be discussed.
⚠️ Risk: Rising storage chip prices continue to erode gross margins. This earnings report will focus on whether the smartphone gross margin can hold the 10% threshold. If it keeps falling, it will directly suppress overall profit levels.
Positioning: The ballast base, unlikely to explode in the short term, just aiming to stay stable without collapsing.
2. Smart Electric Vehicles: Highest Market Attention but Also the Most Uncertain
In recent years, a large part of the capital market hype around Xiaomi has been about the automotive narrative. It has already achieved quarterly profitability before, and new model order data looks promising.
Positioning: The most flexible offensive line; positive news can boost sentiment, but missing expectations can cause the strongest negative impact.
3. IoT + Internet Services: The Real Hidden Profit Ace
Many tend to overlook this segment. Hardware earns hard money, but internet services have gross margins exceeding 75%, making it a solid cash cow.SanDisk ($SNDK) spiked to 1720, mainly driven by investor day event-driven catalysts.
On August 13, SanDisk's investor day released explosive guidance: FY2028-2030 revenue growth of 15%-19% annually, non-GAAP gross margin target of 80%, operating margin around 75%, and a commitment to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders; meanwhile, it disclosed signing NBM long-term agreements with 8 customers, with minimum revenue commitments of $93.9 billion, covering about 50% of FY2027 and roughly two-thirds of FY2028 bit shipments. The market repriced it as a "AI+NAND super cycle" growth stock, with a single-day surge of 13.7% on investor day, continuing to strengthen and piercing the 1700 level in pre-market trading.
Combined with the earlier August earnings report where the stock plunged over 7% due to "next quarter revenue guidance midpoint of $10.55 billion being below the market expectation of $11.15 billion," the oversold chips + short covering + AI storage sector linkage pushed this spike to 1720.
⚠️ Goldman Sachs clearly stated: the current core contradiction is "market expectations have excessively outpaced reality." Above 1700 is a high-level turnover zone, where volatility will be amplified; this pulse ≠ the start of a new main uptrend, so avoid chasing highs at the emotional peak.
Keep an eye on the subsequent NAND contract price rhythm and the progress of NBM long-term agreement signings.
#闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 This week, Wall Street enters the earnings season for major retailers: Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s… People in the crypto space tend to overlook this group of stocks, but for $BTC, this is not insignificant news. The reason lies in the macro transmission chain: the Fed needs to observe inflation and consumer spending to guide interest rates, while risk assets like Bitcoin depend directly on liquidity and risk appetite sentiment. If retail reports show that Americans are still spending strongly, the market will worry about persistent inflation, August 18 SOL Watch｜Fast does not mean every transaction is free of cost
SOL is back in the market spotlight today, with both discussion and spot trading heating up. Rather than chasing hype, it is more worthwhile to understand how Solana balances speed, fees, and execution certainty. According to official documentation, every transaction requires a fee paid in SOL, composed of a base fee calculated per signature and an optional priority fee; the current base fee is 5000 lamports per signature, half of which is burned and half given to validators. The priority fee can increase the chance of a transaction being scheduled earlier by the current leader, but it does not guarantee success. Another often overlooked detail is atomic execution: multiple instructions within a transaction must either all succeed or all roll back, but even if execution fails, fees are still charged. Low fees and high throughput make it easier for high-frequency applications to be implemented, but also amplify issues like congestion, bot competition, and application quality. Going forward, more attention should be paid to real user retention, changes in priority fees, and on-chain application revenue, rather than just price fluctuations. A rise in hype does not mean fundamentals have been realized; network performance, ecosystem revenue, and token demand still require ongoing verification.
$SOL #SOL
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.The siphoning of funds from U.S. stocks is a fact, but the intrinsic structure of the crypto space is strengthening.
On the surface, capital is indeed flowing out—Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, and Coinbase premiums have turned negative. However, on-chain data reveals another layer of signals:
· $BTC long-term holders are accumulating: In the past two weeks, addresses holding ≥1000 BTC have increased their holdings by about 23,000 BTC, while short-term traders are exiting. The chips are shifting from "panic selling" to "faith holding," and such bottom turnover often signals a phase of stabilization.
· $ETH Gas is bottoming out: The average mainnet Gas price has dropped below 5 Gwei, approaching historical lows. Based on previous cycles, extremely low Gas prices usually correspond to sentiment hitting rock bottom but also indicate selling pressure exhaustion—Layer 2 and Restaking sectors continue to accumulate TVL, though this has yet to reflect in price.
The conclusion is straightforward: The "hot money" is being pulled out from storage stocks, but the "cold money" on-chain is quietly accumulating. As long as Bitcoin holds the psychological $60,000 level (near miner cost line), this round of adjustment looks more like a chip cleansing rather than a trend reversal. Ethereum needs to wait for application-layer catalysts to materialize, at which point the pent-up buying energy will be released. The wind hasn't stopped; it has just changed direction. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Brothers, BTC finally showed a direction. Although it’s a rebound upward, I advise you not to get too excited too soon.
Just checked OKX data, $BTC/USDT briefly surged above $64,000, touching $64,400 before slightly pulling back. Around $64,122, you should see the market repairing. This bullish candle broke the sideways stalemate from the past few days, but judging from the data, this rebound feels a bit weak.
📊 What happened? A tug of war between two forces
First force: Buying triggered short stop losses
BTC’s surge above $64,000 was mainly driven by short covering. After short-term buying pushed the price up, many shorts were forced to stop loss and close positions, further amplifying the rise. But note—this kind of rally often lacks sustainability because it’s driven by “shorts surrendering,” not genuine buying inflows.
Second force: Macro environment still weighing down
Throughout the rally, the macro backdrop remains unfavorable:
· The 30-year US Treasury yield soared to the highest level since 2007, and rising long-term rates fundamentally suppress risk assets
· The US-Iran situation remains tense, geopolitical uncertainty suppresses risk appetite
· Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $390 million, the largest single-week outflow in 6 weeks, indicating institutional funds are retreating
On one side, short-term leverage drives the rebound; on the other, macro and institutions are pulling back. These two forces are in a tug of war.
📈 Technicals: $64,000 is the watershed
Data shows BTC is currently in a “weak rebound” pattern:
Key levels:
· Resistance above: $64,630 (recent high). Only if volume breaks through and holds here will bulls truly open up space
· Support below: $62,714 (this rebound’s starting point). If it breaks below, the rebound thesis is invalidated
· Mid-term key level: Above $65,500 signals a real trend strengthening
⚠️ Key risk signal:
Order book data shows a large sell wall near $64,330, accounting for over 90% of the top 5 order levels. This means someone is waiting to dump above. Also, the buy/sell depth ratio is only 0.43, with sell orders far outweighing buy orders, indicating this rebound’s foundation is weak.
💰 My view: Treat this as a rebound, not a reversal to trade
The short-term direction is up, but the quality of the rise is questionable—low volume rebound plus a heavy sell wall on top is a classic “weak rebound.”
My strategy:
· For longs: Wait for a pullback to around $63,500-$63,800 to confirm stabilization before entering. Don’t chase at $64,100; $64,630 above is a danger zone
· For existing positions: Watch if $64,630 can be surpassed; if not, consider reducing exposure
· For shorts: If the rebound near $64,600 shows weakness, try light short positions with stop loss at $64,800
There’s a big event tomorrow—the White House crypto and AI industry meeting, and the CFTC Innovation Committee’s first meeting on the 20th. The policy signals from these meetings may be more decisive for direction than today’s bullish candle.
💰 Today’s P&L: I didn’t chase this BTC rebound, waiting for a pullback. Let’s discuss in the comments—do you think $64,000 can hold? 👇
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Making big profits, Hyperliquid Changxin's largest long position is planning to take profits🤘
Address 0x9a8…23cf2 is currently taking profits in batches through TWAP and limit orders, having sold nearly 100,000 tokens and gained $230,000 in profit
▶︎ TWAP: Taking profit on 20,000 tokens at the $8.7778 level
▶︎ Limit sell orders: Taking profit on 16,614 tokens when price rises to the [$9.01, $9.11] range
This address still holds a 5x long position of 1.53 million $CXMT tokens, valued at $13.41 million, with an opening price of $6.61, and a current unrealized profit including funding fees of $5.445 million
Portal 👉 0x9a80d88c21be60e870d07d852390e92d09223cf2#15-Year Dormant BTC Awakens, Chinese Company Publicly Hoards Coins, Saylor Admits for the First Time
Late night on August 17, OnchainLens reported that a dormant address that received BTC in 2011 woke up and sent 8.54 BTC (about $539,000) to Kraken. The last activity on this address was when BTC was still $14. After 15 years of dormancy, it chose to send to an exchange.
On the same day, Chinese listed company Zhibao Technology announced the purchase of over 2,300 BTC as "reserve assets." @pete_rizzo_ highlighted on X: Chinese companies are starting to publicly compete with the US in hoarding BTC.
The third signal comes from Saylor. @beincrypto reported on 8/18 that Strategy holds $4.8 billion in cash to defend STRC, and when asked about BTC’s decline, Saylor admitted, "We also need to be able to sell BTC." This is the first time Strategy has shifted from unilateral buying to a balanced offense and defense stance.
Putting these three signals together makes it clear: structural changes are happening on the BTC supply side.
The 15-year dormant address only moved 8.54 BTC, a small amount, but the significance lies in the time dimension. Those who received BTC in 2011 were either early miners or early investors who haven’t moved their coins for 15 years. Now choosing to send coins to an exchange means some of these "diamond hands" are starting to consider profit-taking.
This is not necessarily bearish. After a 4000+ times increase over 15 years, reallocating some coins by sending them to an exchange is a completely reasonable operation. But against the backdrop of BTC’s sleeping supply hitting new highs, this move indicates the oldest supply is beginning to show signs of loosening.
Zhibao Technology’s purchase of over 2,300 BTC as reserve assets is the first time a Chinese listed company has publicly announced putting BTC on its balance sheet. The significance is not in the amount bought but in the word "publicly"—Chinese companies are starting to openly compete with US companies in hoarding BTC.
This contrasts with Strategy’s actions. Strategy has long been the world’s largest public BTC holder; now Chinese companies are entering the scene, turning BTC’s corporate treasury narrative from a US monopoly into a multipolar one. If more Chinese and Asian companies follow, BTC’s scarcity narrative will shift from "retail consensus" to "corporate consensus."
Saylor’s statement "We also need to be able to sell BTC" comes in the context of Strategy holding $4.8 billion in cash to defend STRC. STRC is Strategy’s convertible preferred stock linked to BTC price. Holding cash doesn’t mean Saylor is bearish on BTC; it’s a downside protection for STRC holders.
But the statement itself marks an attitude shift. Since 2020, Strategy has been synonymous with "buy and never sell." Now admitting selling as a tool is a first. This is not a bearish signal but Strategy shifting from unilateral offense to balanced offense and defense. Combined with veteran loosening and new institutions entering, BTC’s supply-demand structure is moving from "unanimous buying" to "two-way competition."
BTC’s sleeping supply is loosening, while ETH is the opposite. @IvanOnTech reported on 8/17 that Bitmine has staked 87% of ETH, 5.06 million ETH, about $9.6 billion. @BSCNews data on 8/18 shows ETH staking exit queue is again zero, with 2.17 million ETH (about $4.1 billion) queued to enter.
ETH’s "sleeping supply" is not waiting to sell on exchanges but locked in staking contracts. Zero exit queue means current stakers don’t want to withdraw. BTC veterans are sending dormant coins to exchanges, while ETH whales are locking circulating coins in staking. The supply-side directions of the two chains are completely opposite.
BTC perpetual on 8/18 02:30 reported $64,292.1, 24h +1.80%; ETH perpetual reported $1,906.34, 24h +0.75%; funding rate +0.0025%, OI about $1.33 billion, 24h +0.74%.
BTC funding rate turning negative + OI shrinking + price rising is a short squeeze-driven rebound. ETH funding rate slightly positive + OI expanding indicates new positions entering. The market reflects the divergence in supply-side directions of the two chains.
As usual, three questions:
The 15-year dormant address sent BTC to an exchange—do you read this as veteran profit-taking or reallocation?
Chinese listed companies publicly hoarding BTC as "reserve assets"—do you bet this is an isolated case or the start of an Asian company trend?
Saylor admits for the first time "We also need to be able to sell BTC"—do you believe this is balanced offense and defense or a wavering conviction?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #SleepingSupply #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $BTC 今天这个行情挺有意思。 美国SEC刚把加密监管会议取消了。 美国国会的《Clarity Act》也没能按计划推进。 按正常逻辑： 监管利好没了。 市场应该跌。 结果呢？ 比特币反而重新摸回6.4万美元附近。 这就说明一个问题： 现在的BTC，已经越来越不像以前那个“听到一个利好就暴涨、一个利空就暴跌”的市场了。 为什么？ 因为现在真正决定价格的东西，已经从“消息”变成了： 流动性。 监管只是催化剂。 真正能把BTC从6万推到8万、10万的， 不是SEC说一句“我们支持加密货币”。 而是市场里真的出现大量新增资金。 这也是为什么我现在反而不把SEC取消会议当成纯粹利空。 甚至有一种可能： 市场已经提前把监管延迟这件事定价了。 利空落地， 反而没有继续跌。 这才是值得观察的地方。 如果一个市场： 利空出来不跌， 利好出来能涨， 而且成交量开始放大， 那才是真正值得警惕—— 因为这往往意味着： 卖盘正在变轻。 但如果只是消息刺激下拉一波， ETF资金依然疲软， BTC又重新跌回6万美元附近， 那就别自欺欺人。 这不是牛市。 最多只能算： 熊市里的反弹。 所以我现在对BTC的判断很简$SPCX Elon Musk says AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value, the market believes it first
SpaceX rose 4.45% on Monday to close at $146.23, briefly surging over 5% in early trading. It has rebounded 22% in 20 days, completely shaking off the shadow of falling below $105 in July, with a total market value returning to 1.94 trillion.
1. The core driver is the narrative shift: Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with AI business revenue surging 247% to $2.56 billion. Musk stated that AI revenue will surpass all other business combined by September, and in internal talks said AI will account for 99% of the company's value within 4-5 years, also planning to use millions of satellites to form a "brain of the stars" space computing constellation. Coupled with the $6 billion acquisition of Cursor, the AI story has completely taken over the valuation.
2. But there is a sword hanging overhead: On August 20, 319 million shares will be unlocked, with over 1.3 billion shares queued for September and October, and about 4.9 billion shares expected to circulate before the end of the year. Q2 capital expenditure was $18.4 billion, so the burn rate also needs monitoring.
3. Analysts' average target price is $237, leaving considerable upside. However, before the unlocking pressure is fully digested, short-term trading will likely oscillate between $140-$150. Holding above the IPO price of $135 on 8/20 is a sign of true strength. Those looking to get in should wait until after the unlocking event to act.
#OKX星球话题来啦 #EarningsObserver: Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
The leader has something to say
Xiaomi's earnings report is coming, with highlights in the three lines: smartphones, automobiles, and AIoT. The market is waiting for clear signals from this report.
The first test is whether the premiumization of smartphones can continue to deliver. The Xiaomi 14 series and foldable screens are indeed gaining market share domestically, but in Europe and Southeast Asia, they are still competing head-to-head with Samsung and Transsion. This business is the foundation; maintaining stability is a plus. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Automobiles are the biggest variable. After previous rounds of delivery data, the stock price responded positively, indicating the market is willing to give a premium to this new business. However, cars burn cash much faster than phones, and if gross margins don't improve, market patience will quickly wear thin.
AIoT and the "full ecosystem of people, cars, and homes" are the third layer of logic. Xiaomi's hardware ecosystem has no domestic rivals, but the monetization efficiency of this business has always been questionable. If the earnings report shows an increase in the proportion of high gross margin internet service revenue, that would be an upside surprise.
For the crypto market, Xiaomi's earnings report itself is not directly related, but Xiaomi represents a barometer of Chinese tech assets. If after the report, sentiment in Hong Kong and US stocks turns positive, the spillover effect on crypto will be positive. Conversely, if automobile losses widen and trigger sell-offs, risk appetite contraction will transmit to BTC and Ethereum.
In terms of operations, SPCX has risen from 110 to 150, with profits partially realized in batches, and the base position is still being held. The short position on Sandisk 1741 was closed near 1650, locking in over 90 points. BTC is still consolidating sideways, no rush to enter, wait for direction to emerge. BTC remains in a sideways state, no need to rush in, let the direction come first.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Peeling eggs in the morning, they were hot to the touch and dropped.
$BTC is now 64,374, up 2.34% in 24 hours, with a turnover of 895 million.
This kind of volatility is an opportunity for some, and a torment for others.
The book says people can only profit from what they can hold onto.
Judging the direction isn't that hard.
The hard part is holding on without moving.
Tolerance determines position size, position size determines returns.
Practicing judgment is useless; practice tolerance.
Today is a ready example.
64,374, up 2.34%.
Whether your hands shake or not decides if the money is really yours.
I raised the stop-loss line to the cost, and let the rest be.
#BTC #ETH #InvestmentPhilosophy #TradingMindset #CryptoCommunity Transaction fees dropped instantly from over one percent to zero, completely eliminating the cost barriers for token issuance and matching.
With on-chain trading friction gone, real retail limit orders and high-frequency algorithmic trap funds begin to reconverge in the same depth pool.
Previously, network fees declined from an average daily 30,000+ SOL to just over 5,000, causing a drop in activity that forced platforms to abandon daily protocol commissions that once reached tens of millions of dollars.
When the matching side no longer extracts trapped funds, whether existing capital can form more durable liquidity support within the bonding curve remains to be confirmed by market data.
If zero fees successfully activate incremental traders and drive the return of trapped funds, the ecological liquidity depth of $PUMP is expected to be repriced amid increased trading frequency, triggered by a simultaneous rise in real wallet interactions.
If zero friction costs lead to widespread front-running and wash trading by industrial-grade bots, the effective support orders in the pool will be rapidly diluted by low-quality tokens, further fragmenting liquidity.
If the post-commission-free rebound in trading volume only reflects momentary wash trading without stabilizing effective on-chain retention, the entire logic of trading fees for depth will be disproven.
The most important variables to watch in the coming days are whether the trading frequency of real independent addresses and the capital retention rate within the pool improve synchronously.
#CLARITY表决待定，SEC规则未落地 #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#财报观察员：Xiaomi Earnings Preview
1. Business Data (Xiaomi's Four Major Segments)
Phones: Highest revenue share, price increase driven by high-end models, but chip costs squeeze gross margin, industry faces stock competition;
IoT Appliances: Stable revenue, better gross margin than phones, ecosystem linkage of people, cars, and homes, growth is moderate;
Internet Services: Low revenue share, 75% gross margin, pure cash business, stabilizes overall profit;
Xiaomi Auto: The only high-growth segment, deliveries continue to rise, considerable per-vehicle gross margin, short-term R&D investment drags profits.
2. Sector Logic (Xiaomi Business Only)
Phones are the base, with limited growth space; IoT maintains hardware revenue; Internet supports profits; Auto is Xiaomi's core long-term valuation growth point.
3. Personal View
In this earnings report, short-term support comes from Internet and IoT; long-term optimism is on Xiaomi Auto, focusing on delivery volume and narrowing per-vehicle losses.
$XIAOMI
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.[Beware of Geopolitics]
In the early morning, the US and Iran continued their verbal sparring, Brent crude oil returned near 89, and the 30-year US Treasury yield rose again.
To put it bluntly, the current market liquidity drain is not about whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, because it cannot choose to raise rates. So the negative impact from rate hikes can be directly ignored.
The real biggest negative factor affecting liquidity is the US Treasury yield.
And the US Treasury yield is positively correlated with oil prices; the transmission chain in between will not be elaborated here.
Therefore, now a double-edged sword is in front of us: if risk assets continue to surge, a US-Iran taco is needed; if the situation continues to deteriorate, the rebound may be hindered.
$BTC $SNDK $QQQ
#标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ The borrow fee rate for short selling in the US stock market remains at 0.28%
Including the intraday highest, lowest, open, and close all at 0.28%
However, today the borrow fee rate rose to 0.43%
The last two times were July 24 and August 5
Both times the borrow fee rate increased while the supply of borrowed shares decreased
On these two days, sndk both closed with bearish candles $SNDK $MU