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The Hong Kong stock at HKD 25.68 has already priced in the downward expectations for consumer electronics. The core issue in $XIAOMI's earnings report tonight lies in whether incremental automotive deliveries can reshape risk appetite and offset the pressure from mobile phones and R&D. The stock price has retraced 57% from the high of HKD 60.15 to HKD 25.68, with perpetual contracts at 3.31, indicating the market has completed a dimensionality reduction pricing of the consumer electronics business. The driving factors on the board are ranked as follows: the efficiency of the automotive business in boosting risk appetite, the defensive capability around the adjusted net profit threshold of 6 billion HKD, and the cash flow valuation discount caused by a 25% forecasted decline in mobile phone sales in 2026. The bullish scenario trigger condition is that Q2 adjusted net profit stabilizes at 6 billion HKD and automotive deliveries bring unexpected incremental growth. This situation will attract capital inflows by improving risk appetite, pushing the market to test valuation recovery zones upward. This scenario requires monitoring the conversion efficiency of recurring revenue from automotive after-sales; a failure signal is an unexpected decline in mobile phone sales eroding overall profits. The bearish scenario trigger condition is revenue falling short of 108.8 billion HKD and a year-over-year EPS decline exceeding 56%. Profit pressure will trigger heightened market risk aversion and institutional long position reductions, causing the stock price to test the 52-week low of HKD 21.4. This scenario requires monitoring the impact of rising component costs on traditional hardware gross margins; a failure signal is that high growth in automotive deliveries fully offsets the decline pressure in consumer electronics. When after-hours derivative positions rapidly close and the stock price closes firmly above HKD 28, the short logic based on declining mobile phone sales becomes invalid. In the next 24 hours, key observations include whether the adjusted net profit announced after hours deviates from the 6 billion HKD midpoint and changes in derivative positions around HKD 25.68. #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #SafePal订单泄露，隐私保护待完善 $BTC 30-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to surge, hitting the highest point since 2007. This round of long-term rate increases cannot be simply equated with the market betting on the Fed continuing to raise rates; the core conflict has shifted from short-term policy expectations to a repricing of long-term fiscal, supply-demand, and inflation expectations. Currently, there is a clear market divergence: the market has lowered the probability of a rate hike in September, but long-term bond yields are rising against the trend. Essentially, this is due to a continuous increase in term premiums. The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit brings a massive supply of government bonds, overseas sovereign buyers are continuously reducing holdings, and combined with large-scale bond issuance by AI companies diverting funds, the long-term bond supply-demand imbalance is worsening. Investors demand higher yield compensation to be willing to hold long-duration bonds. Meanwhile, core inflation is still some distance from the 2% target, geopolitical tensions disturb oil prices, and the market finds it difficult to completely dispel concerns about recurring long-term inflation, further supporting long-term yields. As the anchor for global asset pricing, rising long-term yields will continue to push up financing costs across society. High-valuation growth stocks and crypto assets are highly sensitive to interest rates, and valuations continue to face compression pressure from rising discount rates; the U.S. stock market rally heavily depends on earnings support from AI leaders. If rates remain high, the upside driven purely by earnings will remain limited. Many investors tend to overlook one point: the continuous rise in long-term bonds is equivalent to a passive tightening of financial conditions, with effects close to rate hikes, which will continue to suppress risk appetite. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Chapter 36: Daily Pre-Trading Checklist [Pre-Trading Checklist] Trading Instrument: ⸻ Current Price: ⸻ Timeframe: □ 15M □ 1H □ 4H □ 1D ⸻ Current Trend: □ Uptrend □ Downtrend □ Sideways ⸻ Support: ⸻ Resistance: ⸻ ⸻ EMA20: □ Upward □ Downward □ Sideways ⸻ Volume: □ Increasing □ Decreasing □ Normal ⸻ Trading Plan: □ Long □ Short □ No Trade ⸻ Entry: ⸻ Stop Loss: ⸻ Take Profit: ⸻ ⸻ Estimated Maximum Loss: ⸻ Estimated Maximum Profit: ⸻ ⸻ Risk-Reward Ratio: ⸻ ⸻BSC hype dogs, simply put, focus on the following two main points 1: Watch the official sources — CZ, the top influencer, Binance official Twitter Scrutinize wording, dig for new terms, uncover new products; any official-related hot topic must be closely monitored. But this approach is the hardest to play — it all depends on betting on replies, retweets, and whether it can get listed on alpha, contracts, or spot markets. Also, these coins share a common flaw: the moment expectations are realized is the peak, and the price crashes faster than anyone else afterward, completely unsustainable. 2: Watch outside the crypto circle — social hot topics, viral events across the internet Lobster, Niulai, Hakimi all exploded outside the crypto circle first, then spread into the crypto world. The biggest advantage of these coins is their strong sustainability and resistance to price drops. They share a common trait — when the phenomenon just emerges, whether you scroll through Weibo, Douyin, or Twitter, everyone has seen it. For example, Lobster initially appeared as a new AI application method, with related content flooding the screen; Similarly, Niulai hit the trending search on Weibo when its box office was just over 7,000. At that time, although there was a meme with the same name on-chain, the quantity was very small, so grabbing it meant getting the first mover advantage. Two paths, choose your own! Hype dogs are basically betting — betting on expectations, fermentation, and running faster than competitors #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Most tokens in the AI sector rely on narratives to support their prices, but Venice is one of the few that speaks with real revenue. On August 17, founder Erik Voorhees announced that Venice.ai's annualized revenue surpassed $100 million. A month ago, this figure was still $70 million. After the news broke, VVV rose 8%-10% within 24 hours, with a noticeable increase in trading volume. What Venice.ai does is straightforward: open-source AI services including text, image, and code generation, but the core selling point is privacy—no user data storage, no censorship. It runs on the Base chain, founded by Erik Voorhees (the OG behind ShapeShift). There is a tokenomics design I find quite solid: platform revenue is directly used to buy back and burn VVV tokens, with over 40% of the supply already burned, and emissions continuously decreasing, aiming for net deflation. Staking yields returns, unlocks Pro features, and allows minting DIEM (daily AI inference quota). The price is currently around $12-13. Monthly revenue jumped from $70 million to $100 million, which counts as solid data in AI tokens. This is not just hype; real users are paying for its services. The deflation mechanism directly ties revenue growth to token supply contraction. Of course, crypto is volatile, and whether this growth can continue is another question. Personal observation, DYOR $VVV Real-time analysis of ETH ETF buy and sell orders (August 18, 14:00) As of the current pre-US market session, the US ETH spot ETF shows an intraday pattern of bulls and bears competing, with overall capital outflow much smaller than that of the BTC spot ETF. Institutional capital divergence is also significant. The total intraday on-exchange turnover reached $1.476 billion, with active turnover on-exchange, but no large-scale long-term buying has yet appeared. By product, BlackRock ETHA is the main source of intraday buying, continuously absorbing small capital inflows; Grayscale ETHE and Fidelity FETH still have ongoing redemption selling pressure, with redemption pressure continuously released. Small buy orders can only partially hedge some redemptions and have not yet formed an overall net inflow trend. A notable feature on the market is that ETF funds have not entered on a large scale overall, but ETH’s performance is temporarily stronger than BTC. On one hand, on-chain whales continue to withdraw tokens from exchanges to lock and accumulate chips, with off-exchange spot funds absorbing selling pressure; on the other hand, short-term contract leveraged funds actively position long orders, driving price rebounds. This round of rise still belongs to a stock capital game, not a trend led by incremental ETF funds. ETF funds are also a core indicator for judging ETH’s trend. To start a new round of bullish market, ETH ETF needs continuous stable net inflows over multiple days, representing institutional long-term buying re-entering; if redemption outflows expand again, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable, especially with the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice $BTC $SNDK $ETH is $1,897 today, up 0.42% in 24 hours. The highest reached 1,908, the lowest 1,871, with a market cap of $229.3 billion. The 1900 level has been repeatedly tested today. Last week, net inflows for ETH ETFs turned positive along with BTC, but the leader on the ETH side is Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust, not BlackRock's ETHA—this differs from BTC where IBIT dominates alone. This indicates that institutional funds in ETH are more dispersed, without the "one entity holding 80%" support seen in BTC. Looking at the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it is still bottoming at a low level with no signs of relative strength. Market funds are still dominated by BTC, and altcoin rotation has not started. Support is at 1,850-1,880; if broken, look to 1,800; resistance is at 1,920-1,950, and only a firm break above 1,950 counts as a breakout. Conclusion: ETH has confirmed a stop in the decline, but reversal is still early. Hold your base position above 1,880, do not add or chase highs. What can really lift ETH is BTC first stabilizing above 65,000 and altcoin rotation starting; before that, ETH will just follow the ups and downs. Do not move it if 1,850 holds; if broken, then reconsider. #BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87% Great question. If everyone is waiting for the last dip, will there really be a last dip? If there is, how can we be sure it's only one dip and not an endless continuation of "last dip after last dip"? Answering this from two perspectives: 1. Analyzing from the correlation between miner costs and BTC's historical price trends: Historically, BTC bear markets almost always break through the average electricity cost of miners, roughly around 30%. This is why the total network hash rate drops during each bear market. The price decline only forces the entire network into an equipment upgrade phase after it breaks through the electricity costs of some low-efficiency miners... This is a theory about BTC network iterating and updating itself from the underlying hardware... Currently, BTC's price barely holds at a level that breaks less than 10% of electricity costs, whereas in past major crashes and bear markets, the electricity cost break was around 30%. In other words, if this theory still holds, BTC still has about 20% downside space to reach the absolute bottom. A simple calculation places this price range between $50,000 and $55,000, which is why previous quotes mentioned that the probability of BTC falling below $50,000 is extremely low. Simply put, most miners in the network are still making a little profit, but the process of eliminating outdated hash power is already underway... It's not that the market is bad and miners are suffering; rather, BTC's supply system design inherently carries this cyclical nature. In other words, BTC's periodic crashes are mathematically inevitable, just like a forest must periodically experience wildfires to complete its cycle... 2. Analyzing from the current market situation and macro perspective: A recent obvious phenomenon is that native crypto funds have started to be diverted, with a large amount of capital choosing to trade U.S. stocks instead of crypto. This has significantly suppressed BTC's volatility, turning it into a despised old asset... This situation has happened before... In Q4 2018, Q4 2022, and other periods with historically low volatility combined with bear market backgrounds, BTC chose to make a final dip downward, forming the so-called "golden pit"... Even for a MEME coin, if no one trades or talks about it, and volume shrinks to a flat line, the probability of an upward move is far lower than a downward one... Therefore, it's not that I stubbornly remain bearish after BTC has dropped 50% (on the contrary, I am extremely bullish), but the current data and market sentiment conditions do not support a sudden, dramatic bear-to-bull reversal... After all, if there is no so-called "last dip" or "ultimate shakeout," then the large amount of chips or futures longs accumulated during the low-level consolidation cannot be released, which will become supply resistance in future rebounds or bull trends... Nothing is absolute. I also hope BTC starts a bull run tomorrow, leaving all those waiting for lower prices behind, making them regret it... But the odds may not be on our side... So my ongoing strategy is to split the funds planned for bottom-fishing BTC into two parts: 50% continuously dollar-cost averaging at the current stage, and the other 50% reserved for a "last dip" or "shakeout." This way, if there is no new low, I have successfully accumulated cheap chips at the cycle bottom; if there is, I can also buy more cheap chips at a 20% discount. Both paths are acceptable, especially since I won't regret it much in the future bull market, which is enough for me... 3. How to ensure there won't be a second or third "last dip" after the last dip? The answer is simple: you can't ensure it... When that time comes, the market will test not analysis or execution ability, but pure faith... Looking back, from 2018's drop from 20,000 to 3,100, 2019's drop from 14,000 to 3,800, to 2022's drop from 69,000 to 16,000, which true bottoming market didn't test faith? If BTC can't wash out all speculative funds from the market, it will be hard to enter a strong bull market in the future... The duration and height of a bull market have little to do with those who bottom-fished; instead, it depends on how many people slap their thighs saying "if only back then..."This looks like a BTC-led repricing, not a broad crypto risk-on move. BTC is up 1.41% near $64,158, while ETH and SOL are essentially flat. That divergence suggests capital is concentrating in liquidity rather than expanding across the curve. With the 30-year yield at a 2007 high and BTC volume drying up, I would treat the bounce as defensive strength, not confirmation of a durable breakout. The constructive signal would be participation broadening beyond BTC. Just my read, not advice.#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.3%!! Latest data shows that the US 30-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.321%, hitting a new high since 2007, while the 10-year yield is around 4.72%. This upward trend is not just a Federal Reserve issue; US fiscal pressure, oil price rebound, and long-term bond supply are all pushing up funding costs. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related debt financing has approached $500 billion since 2026. We have always said that AI capital expenditure benefits chips, storage, and data centers, but on the other hand, massive financing also increases bond supply and competes for global capital. So I believe that if long-term rates stay above 5% for a long time, the hardest hit will be high-valuation assets supported by forward growth. The logic is simple: a risk-free yield above 5% means the market’s return requirements for stocks, BTC, and high-growth AI companies will all increase. $BTC is the same. I previously leaned toward BTC having one more downward move to find support, and now with long-term yields continuing to break through, this judgment is actually strengthened. Unless US Treasury yields clearly fall back and ETF funds continuously flow in again, I won’t rush to judge that risk assets have re-entered a major uptrend. I remain bullish on AI in the long term, but the 5.3% Treasury yield is reminding the market: money is really expensive now. Who can still rise next may depend on who can truly turn the AI story into cash flow. Real-time analysis of BTC ETF buy and sell orders (August 18, 14:00) As of now today, the overall US BTC spot ETF has shifted from a slight net inflow in the morning session to a state of long-short contention, with clear capital divergence. The cumulative daily turnover reached $2.812 billion, with active on-exchange turnover, but long-term incremental buying remains weak. By product, BlackRock IBIT has become the main buying force today, continuously absorbing funds in phases; Fidelity FBTC, Ark ARKB, and Grayscale BTC continue to experience redemption selling pressure, which is persistently released. Only a few small- and medium-sized ETFs maintain small inflows, and sporadic buying cannot fully offset the selling pressure caused by redemptions for now. A significant divergence appears on the market: ETF funds have not formed large-scale continuous inflows, yet BTC prices continue to oscillate upward. The selling pressure is mainly absorbed by long-term on-chain whales and off-exchange spot funds. This rebound is still driven by existing on-exchange funds rather than a trend led by incremental ETF funds. ETF funds remain the core indicator for judging the trend. To start a new round of bullish market, continuous stable net inflows of ETF funds over multiple days must be seen, representing institutional long-term buying re-entering the market; if redemptions and outflows expand again, the sustainability of this rebound will be questionable. Meanwhile, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes will become a key macro variable influencing institutional fund decisions. This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $ETH Crypto raised $11.2 billion in six months: but two-thirds of the money went to just 3 places On the surface, crypto financing was hot in the first half of 2026: 377 rounds of financing totaling $11.2 billion. But what’s really worth looking at isn’t the total amount, but how concentrated the money is. Payments and stablecoins took $3.7 billion, prediction markets $2 billion, exchanges and trading platforms $1.7 billion. These three combined account for about $7.4 billion, roughly 66% of all financing. In short: Capital is still investing in crypto, but it’s getting lazier about casting a wide net, starting to focus only on tracks that "can generate revenue, comply with regulations, and connect with institutions." What’s even more interesting is that traditional financial institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Apollo, HSBC, Citadel, Nasdaq, and others have already appeared in these financings. So the next round of crypto opportunities may not necessarily be in "building a new chain." Instead, it might be in the more boring but truly profitable areas: stablecoin payments, prediction markets, trading infrastructure. Crypto is gradually shifting from "who has the newest story" to "who controls the real financial pipelines." #财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report. Which business line do you favor more? Xiaomi's earnings tonight should not only focus on automobiles but also on whether the "human-car-home full ecosystem" can make money together. Some institutions expect Q2 revenue to be about ¥108.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%; EPS about ¥0.20, a year-on-year decrease of 55.67%. Breaking it down, the main focus is on five areas: ① Mobile Phones Q1 revenue was ¥44.3 billion, shipments 33.8 million units, down 19.2% year-on-year, with gross margin dropping to 10.1%. Whether premiumization can offset rising storage costs and declining sales is the biggest highlight. ② AIoT and Home Appliances Q1 revenue was ¥24.7 billion, down 23.7% year-on-year, but gross margin still at 25.2%, connected devices reached 1.119 billion units, the ecosystem's foundation is still expanding. ③ Internet Q1 revenue was ¥9.5 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year, with a high gross margin of 76.1%, still Xiaomi's most stable profit source. ④ Automobiles Q1 revenue from automobiles, AI, and innovation businesses was ¥19.9 billion, gross margin 20.1%, operating loss ¥3.1 billion. Q2 deliveries have clearly rebounded; next is to see if the gross margin can be maintained and losses narrowed. ⑤ AI Xiaomi has not yet separately disclosed AI revenue, but Q1 R&D investment reached ¥9 billion, with Xiao Ai monthly active users at 169 million. Short-term pressure on profits, but long-term it determines the synergy space among mobile phones, automobiles, and smart homes. In short The real focus of the earnings report is whether mobile phone profits can be stabilized, automobile losses narrowed, and when AI investment will start to monetize Weak consumption does not mean the Fed can immediately ease its stance This sentence sounds especially harsh now US retail and confidence data show signs of fatigue, indicating that households are indeed starting to tire. But the problem is that inflation hasn't dropped low enough to let policy comfortably relax. The market loves to interpret bad data as a signal for rate cuts, but in reality, weak consumption can first hurt corporate revenue, squeeze profits, and drag down valuations I think the most conflicted point of September's policy lies here If the Fed shifts too quickly, inflation expectations might rise again; if it remains tough, consumption and employment could be pressured to look even worse. Investors are caught in the middle, hoping bad news will lead to easing, yet fearing bad news might truly damage the fundamentals This is not a comfortable cooldown It's more like the room has finally cooled, but you realize the windows are starting to leak wind #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 KX asks: Between smartphones, automobiles, and AIoT, which line do you favor most? The stock price has already made a vote. Hong Kong stocks 1810 closed at HKD 25.68 · Down from the July 2025 high of HKD 60.15: -57% · Past 1 year: -52% · OKX $XIAOMI perpetual contract about 3.31, 24h -0.7% · Hong Kong stocks to release Q2 2026 earnings after market close tonight. Institutions have already written the disappointing figures into their expectations: Q2 revenue was approximately 108.8 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year. Earnings per share were about 0.20, down 56% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is still around 6 billion yuan, almost flat quarter-on-quarter. So what we really want to watch tonight is not the empty talk of "revenue decline year-on-year." That incident, when the stock price fell from 60 to 26, it had already been digested. 1. Let's look at the two-year path: this is not a surprise in earnings, but a completed price set at the July 2025 high of HKD 60.15. Today is 25.68. The 52-week low was around 21.4. Now it's not far from the bottom, but far from the top. The market's label for Xiaomi has changed: it is no longer the "top three global smartphone sales consumer electronics stocks," but a high-beta tech stock "car manufacturing + AI investment." The meaning of high beta is simple: if the numbers exceed expectations, they will surge sharply; if they fall short of expectations, they will drop even further. 2. Of the four business lines, only one is telling the incremental story. Q1 Actual ReportIf you were given $4.8 billion to buy Bitcoin—would you enter the market now or wait a bit longer? This is not hypothetical. This is Strategy's real situation right now. As of August 16, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, with a total position cost of $63.36 billion and an average price of $75,385. At the same time, the company has $4.8 billion in cash reserves. $4.8 billion just sitting on the books, untouched. Strategy has not bought any Bitcoin for eight consecutive weeks. Last week, the company raised $333.7 million by selling 3.46 million shares of MSTR stock. How was this money spent? $149.1 million to replenish USD reserves $132.2 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares $52.4 million to pay STRC dividends Not a single cent was used to buy BTC. This is completely different from Saylor's previous style of "raising funds and immediately increasing positions." The market is starting to panic: Is Strategy's Bitcoin buying spree over? Don't rush. Saylor himself gave us three clues about when the $4.8 billion will be deployed. Clue one: STRC must first return to $100. STRC is the preferred stock issued by Strategy, with a par value of $100 and an annual dividend yield currently around 12%. But this stock once dropped from $100 to between $73 and $95 this year. Saylor's goal is clear: to bring STRC back near its $100 par value. He said very plainly in the August 17 investor Q&A: "The most important thing right now is to stabilize the credit business; equity matters can wait." In plain language: patch the hole in the preferred shares first, buying Bitcoin comes later. Part of the $4.8 billion cash has already been used to repurchase STRC. Until STRC stabilizes around $99-$100, this money will not be used to buy Bitcoin. Clue two: MSTR must be deeply discounted before considering buybacks—and the same applies to buying Bitcoin. Saylor said that if MSTR shows a significant discount relative to net asset value, the company might consider repurchasing common stock. The same logic applies to Bitcoin: only when the price is "cheap enough" will he act. The question is—what price does Saylor consider "cheap enough"? He didn't say. But we can calculate: his average position cost is $75,385. BTC is currently around $64,000. That's about 15% below cost. Isn't that "cheap enough"? Apparently, in Saylor's view—it is not. Clue three: credit business takes priority; lending and loans come before direct Bitcoin purchases. Strategy is currently aggressively developing its "digital credit" business. Simply put: lending money to others to earn interest, rather than buying Bitcoin directly. Saylor's exact words: Bitcoin is "digital capital," STRC is "digital credit"—one appreciates in value, the other generates interest. What does this mean? The $4.8 billion won't necessarily be fully invested in BTC. Part of it may be used for lending, market making, providing liquidity—to earn stable interest spreads rather than betting on BTC price movements. So, the $4.8 billion is not bearish—it is waiting for a better price and a better window. And the macro window may be opening. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius clearly stated on August 16 that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September is "very low." The reason is simple: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and CPI and PPI both cooled down. CME data shows the market pricing in a 65%-69% chance that the Fed will hold steady in September. Although the probability of a rate hike before year-end remains above 90%—the September meeting likely won't see action. For risk assets, unchanged rates = the faucet isn't being tightened. BTC just rebounded to $64,360. If the Fed really holds steady or even shifts to easing—$4.8 billion could be the "igniter." The window is approaching. Just no one knows the exact day. Strategy is not done buying—it is using $4.8 billion to wait for you to sell at a loss. Saylor is waiting for STRC to return to $100. Waiting for MSTR to be deeply discounted. Waiting for clearer signals from the Fed. He is waiting for a price lower than now. $BTC $MSTR $STRC #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 What BTC fears most now may not be the Federal Reserve, but oil prices. The market suddenly feels a bit off today. The ceasefire between the US and Iran ended, and Iran has sent out tougher signals, reigniting risks in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, crude oil has risen for the third consecutive day, with Brent crude back above $91 per barrel. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.72%, and the 30-year yield even surged to 5.32%. (Reuters) The most interesting thing is: BTC is only around $64,000 now. Many might wonder: What does rising oil prices have to do with BTC? Actually, it’s very related. If oil prices keep rising, the biggest problem isn’t just more expensive gasoline. It’s that: Inflation could rise again. Once inflation picks up, the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates will be squeezed, and the market might even start discussing "maintaining high rates for longer." This is not good news for risk assets like BTC. So now I actually think: What BTC really needs to watch next isn’t just Fed speeches, but the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. If the conflict cools down and oil prices fall back— BTC might trade based on expectations of rate cuts again. But if oil prices keep pushing toward $100— Risk assets might suffer again. So this time, I won’t guess whether BTC will go up or down tomorrow. I’ll just watch crude oil. What do you think: If oil hits $100, will BTC crash along with it, or will it instead be seen as a safe haven by investors? #BTC #Bitcoin #CrudeOil When is it a good time to bottom out in real estate? The housing prices didn’t wait for the golden September and silver October; instead, they first experienced a month-on-month weakening. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on second-hand housing in 70 cities for July: only 8 cities saw month-on-month price increases, down by 2 from 10 in June. The monthly peak this year was in March, with 17 cities rising; since then, it has steadily shrunk—16, 13, 10, 8—the group of cities with rising prices is continuously dissolving, while the number of cities with falling prices is becoming denser. First-tier cities remain the most resilient in this round of adjustments. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have maintained month-on-month indices above 100 for several consecutive months, forming a clear contrast with the continued weakening in second- and third-tier cities. However, there are changes in second- and third-tier cities as well: the decline is actually narrowing, with many cities’ month-on-month drops converging within -1%. Cities with prices starting with 98 have not been seen for quite some time—summarized in one sentence as "the decline is slower, but it’s still falling." The problem is, a slow decline is still wearing. Currently, mortgage rates are roughly around 3%, while the annualized rent-to-price ratio for residential properties generally doesn’t reach 2%, meaning this is inherently a negative cash flow calculation. Even if prices drop only three to five percent annually, combined with holding costs, the experience remains tough. My personal view, looking internally at the rent-to-price ratio, as mentioned before, concerns existing funds. Externally, it depends on when Hong Kong can become Asia’s economic center, so that Asian consortium funds can radiate from Hong Kong into the mainland. This is a long and arduous path. For consortiums, Singapore, Seoul, and Tokyo are also options to consider. Let’s watch the economic situation in 2028.The big whale has made a move again! This time it's not bottom-fishing, but continuing to short HYPE! ⚠️ Just now, Abraxas Capital's main address increased its short position by 32,334 HYPE tokens, worth about $2.01 million. Currently, its total HYPE short position has reached: $26.42 million! And the average entry price is only $59.57, while the current HYPE price is about $59.55, right near the cost line. What’s really worth noting is that this address is not an ordinary player. It was previously one of the largest contract whales on HyperLiquid, with a historical position size reaching $920 million. It started building the position in May, has been taking profits continuously, and now, after significantly reducing its holdings, it still chooses to add more shorts on HYPE. What does this mean? At least from this whale’s trading logic, the $59–$60 range is not considered an absolutely safe zone. The key now is not to focus on how much profit it has made, but to see if HYPE can hold around $59 going forward. If it can stabilize above $60 and break out with volume upwards, the whale’s short positions might be forced under pressure. But if HYPE falls below $59 and then loses the $55–$56 support, market sentiment is likely to weaken further. So the real focus for HYPE now is: Watch for a breakout above $60, and watch for risk below $59. The whale has already fired its shots; now it depends on which side the market chooses to stand on. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 In the past, when prices rose for goods, we would complain a bit, but now even borrowing money is becoming increasingly expensive. This time, it's not the mortgage rates rising, but one of the most important pricing anchors in the global financial market—the US 30-year Treasury bond. The latest data shows that the 30-year US Treasury yield once rose to about 5.32%, hitting a new high since 2007, and the 10-year yield also reached around 4.72%. Many people might think 5.3% just means higher interest on US Treasuries, but what really deserves attention is that the US government is paying increasingly higher costs for long-term financing. There are several reasons behind this: on one hand, the US fiscal deficit and bond issuance scale continue to expand; on the other hand, AI data centers and tech company financing are also competing for a large amount of long-term funds. Coupled with fluctuating oil prices and inflation expectations, investors naturally demand higher yields. So now we can't just focus on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, because short-term rates mainly depend on the Fed, but the 30-year rate reflects fiscal policy, inflation, bond supply, and global capital demand. Personally, I am more concerned about one trend. If the 30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for the long term, then the valuation logic of global assets might really change. Stock valuations will come under pressure, real estate financing costs will be hard to reduce, and gold and BTC will become more sensitive to changes in real interest rates and liquidity. What is truly worth being cautious about is not today's 5.3%, but whether the market will gradually get used to a world where "long-term capital becomes increasingly expensive." If this becomes the new normal, then the high valuation environment brought by low interest rates over the past decade or so may be slowly receding. $SNDK $OKB $GPS 根阳线让人瞬间兴奋，连续两根阴线又把情绪打回原点。最难熬的反而不是暴跌，而是这种没有方向的反复震荡——至少真正的下跌还有明确答案。 现在的比特币，运行逻辑已经和过去不太一样。$BTC 更像是在跟随宏观流动性节奏呼吸，依靠“数字黄金”叙事吸引机构资金配置。但在降息预期没有明显升温之前，想让比特币凭自身力量持续冲高，难度依然很大。 宏观方面，30年期美债收益率已经升至2007年以来的高位附近，长期资金成本持续偏高，这对高波动资产的估值仍然形成压力。市场真正等待的，还是流动性拐点和更明确的政策催化。 $ETH 的基本面依旧扎实，生态和应用层没有消失，但每次反弹到关键位置，卖压似乎都会重新出现。上涨有，却缺乏持续性。短期更适合作为核心防守型资产之一，想要完全脱离 $BTC 独立走强，目前还需要更强的资金确认。 不同板块的表现也越来越分化。$SOL 和 $OKB 在震荡环境中相对抗跌，资金承接明显更强；而 $AVAX、$FIL、$WLD 的表现偏弱，更多还是跟随市场节奏。如果没有新的资金叙事或基本面催化，很难真正从轮动行情中脱颖而出。 中长期来看，市场正在从“比特币单独领跑”逐渐转向多资产协同。The yen has started to counterattack, and semiconductors are the first to take a hit. The team of Sanae Takaichi has signaled tolerance for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and the market immediately began to reprice: yen appreciation + rising Japanese interest rates = pressure on high-valuation tech assets. Don't underestimate this semiconductor correction. In the past, the AI and semiconductor sectors enjoyed a triple dividend of "low interest rates + weak yen + high growth expectations," but now one of these gears is starting to reverse, so valuations naturally move first. What's more troublesome is that if the market starts trading on "normalization of Japanese monetary policy," the impact may not be limited to Japanese stocks. Yen carry trades, global liquidity, and AI high-valuation assets might be linked in a chain. What semiconductors are falling today may not just be semiconductors. It could be the market repricing liquidity for the next phase in advance. #日元 #日本央行 #半导体 #AI #全球流动性 $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Saylor's "Defection": What Does It Mean When the Biggest Bull Starts Hoarding Dollars? For the past five years, Michael Saylor has had only one thing on his mind—buying Bitcoin, buying Bitcoin, and buying Bitcoin. Posting his holdings chart every Monday has become a fixed ritual in the crypto community. As punctual as a clock. But in the past few Mondays, the clock didn’t ring. From August 10 to 16, Strategy neither bought nor sold any Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 coins, with a total cost basis of about $63.36 billion and an average price of about $75,385. This is not a one-week fluke. This marks the eighth consecutive week without increasing holdings. During the same period, Strategy sold 3.4589 million shares of MSTR common stock through an ATM program, raising net proceeds of about $333.7 million. Of that, $149.1 million replenished dollar reserves, $132.2 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred stock, and $52.4 million paid STRC dividends. In the past five weeks, Strategy has cumulatively sold about $2.1 billion in common stock, repurchased about $347 million in preferred stock, and also sold $213.3 million worth of Bitcoin. As of August 16, the company’s dollar reserve balance stands at $4.8 billion. You read that right—the biggest bull is hoarding cash. How should we understand this? On three levels. First, the tactical level: repairing the balance sheet. Saylor himself said: stock buybacks are not a priority for now; the current focus is on STRC preferred stock, cash reserves, and credit business. What is he doing? Plugging holes. STRC preferred stock has dropped to $75 (face value $100), and the company needs cash to stabilize it. The $4.8 billion cash reserve is enough to cover dividends and debt obligations for the next two and a half years. This is not bearish on BTC; it’s putting on a life jacket. Second, the strategic level: waiting for a better opportunity. Saylor said if MSTR trades at a "very deep discount" to net asset value, he might consider buybacks. In plain language: I’m waiting for a lower price. MSTR has dropped about 38% this year. Bitcoin holdings are underwater by about $10 billion. The current market environment is not the time to go all in. He’s hoarding this $4.8 billion not because he doesn’t want to buy—it’s because he’s waiting for a better price to buy. Third, the signaling level: even the most steadfast bulls are actively managing their positions. This is the most painful part. For the past five years, Saylor’s narrative was "never sell," "always bullish." In May 2026, he sold Bitcoin for the first time—32 coins—to pay dividends. Now? Eight consecutive weeks without buying, instead selling stock to hoard cash. The market is undergoing a qualitative change—from "faith-driven" to "cash flow-driven." A bit more background. The probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in September has surged to 65%-66.9%. July retail sales declined, and nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000. The high-interest environment continues. The cost of borrowing to buy coins is getting higher. Strategy has rigid annual expenses of $1.76 billion just for preferred stock dividends and interest. Without hoarding cash, how will they pay? The narrative used to be "buy, buy, buy," now it’s "survive." So here’s the question— Is Strategy preserving flexibility for the next bull market, or is its role as a "corporate BTC buyer" permanently weakening? This question is ten thousand times more important than BTC’s short-term price moves. In the past two years, Strategy has been the most stable buyer in the market—throwing in hundreds of millions weekly, providing liquidity and a base for the entire market. Now this "buying machine" has shut down. Who will be the "perpetual bull"? No one. Saylor himself made it clear—he’s waiting too. One last thing. When the biggest bull starts hoarding dollars and waiting for a lower price— Do you still dare to go all in blindly? $BTC $ETH $OKB #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 That's right, I'm still holding the short position on SanDisk. Sigh, adding to the position on floating profits, and then losing it all in one wave. SanDisk closed up over 8%, the market is celebrating the long-term agreement, and I'm still stuck in the 1615 short position figuring out how to recover gracefully. This morning $SNDK dropped from 1827 to around 1687. Clearly, there was a window to cut losses, but I greedily waited for it to fall further, and hesitated, only to see it bounce back above 1730. The cost line at 1615 is so low it feels like it's lost contact. How exactly can it be pushed down to come back? I still remain bearish, but I have to admit the value of the long-term agreement. 8 clients, up to 5 years, minimum contract revenue of about $93.9 billion, plus price floors and financial guarantees, which indeed can mitigate the impact of the traditional NAND cycle. But stable orders don't mean profit margins will remain stable forever. Whether the roughly 80% adjusted gross margin can hold depends on product mix, costs, capacity, and peer expansion. Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix rising simultaneously also shows that capital is not only re-evaluating SanDisk but also re-rating the entire AI storage sector. The market seems to have priced in the good news for the next few years ahead of time. So what I'm betting on is not that AI storage lacks demand, but that expectations have run too fast and valuations will eventually need to catch their breath. This trade also taught me: being right on the long-term logic doesn't mean you nail the short-term timing; floating profits are the easiest to inflate, and after adding to the position, you realize you are the liquidity. The short position remains, but I won't add more. Bearish is bearish, but when it's time to exit, I won't hesitate at all. $SNDK #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week to increase dollar reserves The most notable thing about Strategy this week is not that it sold $334 million worth of stock. It's that—— They raised so much money but didn't buy a single BTC. The money was used to repurchase preferred shares, pay dividends, and replenish dollar reserves. This indicates that Strategy's top priority now is no longer "how much BTC can be bought," but: First stabilize its own balance sheet. So next time you see "Saylor financing," don't reflexively call it bullish for BTC. First see where the money ultimately went. Financing ≠ buying coins. $BTC $SUI According to existing information, NAVI Protocol has launched NAVI Prime, with the core benefit being the enhancement of capital efficiency and security through a modular architecture and institutional-grade positioning, expected to bring more professional liquidity to the Sui ecosystem. 🎯 Core Upgrade: From "One-Pot" to "Isolation Chamber" NAVI Prime is essentially an architectural upgrade, replacing the original single shared liquidity pool with "independently curated lending markets." Each market has independent risk parameters (such as collateral ratio, liquidation threshold), so high-quality assets (like stablecoins) no longer have to bear the risk of highly volatile assets. This reduces systemic risk while customizing better capital efficiency for different assets. 💼 Clear Objective: Targeting Institutions and Professional Capital It is specifically designed for funds with high demands for transparency and control, marking a key step for the Sui ecosystem to expand institutional business. 📊 Potential Impact Analysis · Short-term (Market Sentiment): Positive for market sentiment, strengthening the narrative of "institutional entry," potentially attracting professional liquidity that requires risk isolation. However, the impact of such upgrades is usually gradual and may not trigger drastic market moves immediately unless accompanied by strong incentives. · Long-term (Ecosystem Value): Lays the foundation for further growth in TVL (currently about $125 million) and lending demand, expected to consolidate NAVI's position as the core lending protocol in the Sui ecosystem.#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to around 5.3%, and the 10-year yield has also risen above 4.7%, hitting nearly a two-decade high. The core reason for this sharp rise is not Fed rate hikes, but supply and demand imbalance. ▶️ The US government is borrowing too much Debt is approaching 40 trillion, and the Treasury is constantly issuing large amounts of ultra-long bonds to refinance old debt, but the market buyers cannot keep up and demand higher interest rates to buy. ▶️ Buyers are collectively retreating Central banks are reducing holdings, and with Japan abandoning ultra-low rates, arbitrage funds are flowing back, causing US Treasuries to lose their biggest buyers. ▶️ AI is draining liquidity Tech giants are aggressively issuing corporate bonds to build computing power centers, competing with Treasuries for market funds. Yields staying above 5% essentially push up financing costs across society. The most direct impact is suppressing asset prices: non-yielding gold, highly volatile cryptocurrencies, and overvalued tech stocks will all remain under pressure in the short term. After all, many large funds will choose to hedge by putting money in risk-free Treasuries yielding over 5%. Future outlook ▶️ Short term: Debt issuance pressure won’t ease, so long-term yields will likely consolidate at high levels and won’t immediately turn down. ▶️ Medium term: High interest will strain US fiscal interest payments. Eventually, the Treasury will likely have to concede, reduce long-term bond issuance, and switch to issuing short-term debt to stabilize the market, at which point yields will see a real turning point. Do you currently hold US Treasuries or crypto assets? How do you plan to respond? DYOR $ETH ETH consolidates at 1900, US-Iran tensions stir the market Trading at 1905, range-bound between 1898-1916, bulls and bears locked in a standoff at 1900. US-Iran ceasefire MOU expired Monday, Iran denied extending talks, oil tanker seized in Strait of Hormuz — daily crossings plunged to just 3, sending oil prices surging. US equities fell, while crypto held relatively firm on dollar weakness. Key levels: resistance at 1915-1930, support at 1880-1890; $BTC $OKB Everyone is reducing holdings and waiting to see; what does the 30-year US Treasury yield soaring past 5.3% mean? The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high. The US is now carrying nearly 40 trillion in massive debt and can only issue bonds frantically due to lack of funds. The awkward part is that the Federal Reserve is not stepping in, overseas major buyers are reducing holdings, and even the popular AI infrastructure is competing for funds. The market has more sellers than buyers, inflation can't be suppressed, so the only way is to raise interest rates to find someone to pay. Large deficits lead to frantic bond issuance, bond issuance pushes up interest rates, high interest rates bring huge interest payments, and ultimately the deficit grows even larger. As long as high interest rates persist, corporate financing and home buying costs will skyrocket, and the high valuation sectors of the US stock market will definitely be hit first. Although gold and Bitcoin are suppressed in the short term, in the long term, once people doubt the US dollar's credit, they will become sought-after safe havens. The way out is either to cut spending or to grit teeth and ease monetary policy with rate cuts; the healthiest way is to rely on AI to improve productivity, but that is too slow. So next, don't just watch the Federal Reserve's face; who else is willing to take on this massive US debt? #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 This is not a rebound; it's like inserting a pipe into an account about to break. Last night before bed, $WET surged without volume and faced obvious resistance above. I judged it to be a heavy bull trap and casually suggested a short position, setting the entry price at 0.07282. This morning when I checked the market, the current price had already dropped to 0.06982, with an unrealized profit of +83.49%. This gain feels good. I pocketed the major part first by closing 80% of the position, moving the stop loss for the remaining 20% to the break-even point. Chasing shorts is easy to get caught by a rebound, so don’t recklessly act when the price is high. The market moves when you wait for it, and profits come from holding. If you miss this move, don’t rush; wait for the next signal before acting. $BTC $ETH $ASTER **ASTER is leaning bearish, $0.601** The second in the PerpDEX sector, benchmarked against HYPE. But the trend is hard to summarize at a glance—$0.60 has been flat for almost two weeks, down 0.4% in 7 days, down 3% in 30 days, down 17% in 6 months, and down 75% from the ATH of $2.42. This is not a bottoming formation; it's clearly a slow decline. Core issue: **Token circulation rate is only 33%**. Total supply is 8 billion, with 2.7 billion circulating and 5.3 billion waiting to be unlocked and dumped. Buyback and burn sounds good—99% of fees are used for buybacks, and 293 million tokens have been burned—but the unlocked amount far exceeds the burned amount, making it negligible. AOS-2 upgrade launched on August 11, simplifying the contract listing process, but the price remains unchanged. The market is not buying it. **The positive side:** 67% buy order ratio, $60 million+ 24h trading volume, liquidity is decent. With HYPE leading the way in the PerpDEX sector, the narrative is correct. **Key levels:** - $0.59 (30-day low) → $0.55 → $0.41 (historical strong bottom) - $0.61 → $0.64 (30-day high) → $0.80 Breaking below $0.59 will accelerate the search for a bottom; only holding above $0.64 can be considered a stop to the decline. Don't rush to buy; the unlocking flood hasn't been fully absorbed. HYPE's fundamentals are ten times stronger; if you want to buy PerpDEX, go straight for the leader.🚨 MIDDAY WARNING: GREEN CANDLES ARE HIDING A WEAKER MARKET The latest Ouyi contract leaderboard shows a market where speculation is still active, but broad risk appetite is deteriorating. 🟢 Top gainers $PIEVERSE +16.04% $SKDD +8.86% $SOXS +7.58% $H +7.57% $CAP +5.70% $OFC +5.40% $COMP +5.17% $GPS +5.15% $VVV +4.64% $OPN +4.21% The standout isn't simply $PIEVERSE. $SKDD and $SOXS — leveraged bearish semiconductor products — appearing among the biggest gainers is a much more important signal. Capital is positioning for weakness in parts of the global tech complex. $GPS also deserves attention: roughly ₽26B in turnover but only a 5.15% advance. That's massive activity with limited price expansion, suggesting buyers are meeting heavy supply. 🔴 Top losers $ZHIPU -17.65% $MINIMAX -13.46% $KORU -12.14% $KAITO -11.23% $IRYS -11.07% $OUST -9.70% $WLD -9.44% $KIOXIA -9.15% $GALA -8.51% $SLX -8.46% The clearest weakness is coming from AI and tech-linked narratives. $ZHIPU, $MINIMAX, $KAITO and $WLD are all taking serious hits, while $KIOXIA's decline adds another warning from the semiconductor/storage side. 📉 The bigger picture This doesn't look like healthy capital rotation yet. It's more like capital retreating from crowded narratives while short-term traders chase isolated green candles. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 adds another macro pressure point for risk assets. Higher long-duration yields can tighten financial conditions and make speculative positions harder to sustain. ⚠️ What matters next: US market open → tech-sector reaction → BTC liquidity → follow-through. Until capital starts spreading into stronger sectors, midday pumps should be treated with caution. Don't chase strength before confirming the flow behind it. #BTC #Crypto #Altcoins #AI #XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 5.31% is not the market pricing in a "rate hike," it’s the market saying "the Fed has lost control." What exactly happened? On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, the highest since 2007. The 2-year yield was 4.179%, the 10-year 4.724%, and the 30Y-2Y spread widened to 113 basis points. Four forces are pushing simultaneously: CBO projects debt interest will reach $2.1 trillion by 2036, and the total US debt has risen from $8.8 trillion in 2007 to nearly $40 trillion; AI companies issued $145.2 billion in bonds in August, breaking the monthly record two weeks early; the correlation between oil prices and long-term bond yields surged from near zero to 0.85; and Walsh’s "silence" is intensifying market panic. What does this mean for the crypto market? A 5.31% risk-free rate means the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin is rising. With long-term rates continuing to climb, the valuation ceiling for risk assets keeps getting pushed down. So 5.31% is not the peak; it’s the market saying "the Fed has lost control over long-term rates." Barclays is right: to see a reversal, three things must happen simultaneously—fiscal improvement, a slowdown in AI bond issuance, and economic weakness—and none of these are visible in the short term.I think BTC still needs one more drop before reaching the real bottom. Two reasons. From the miner cost perspective, historically each bear market cycle breaks through about 30% of the electricity cost, but now it's barely below 10%. According to this pattern, the bottom should be around 50000-55000. From a macro perspective, crypto funds have been diverted to the US stock market, and volatility has been suppressed to an extremely low level. After similar situations in 2018 and 2022, there was a "golden pit" rally. So my strategy is simple: invest 50% of funds regularly, and keep 50% waiting for that final drop. Is it possible to go straight into a bull run without dropping? Of course. Is it possible to drop once and then continue falling? No one can guarantee that either. When that time really comes, it all tests faith—didn't we endure the bottoms in 2018 and 2022? The bull market truly starts when everyone is slapping their thighs saying "I should have bought back then." Ethereum $ETH's situation is different from BTC. It has an additional layer of staking rewards support. A 34% staking rate indeed locks up a large amount of liquidity, which on the surface seems good. But when the price doesn't rise, the higher staking yield actually looks more like a trap—funds earn interest and are unwilling to move, making the market even more stagnant. ETH's current bottom is not just a price bottom but also a confidence bottom. The longer it stays around 1900, the more it shows no one is willing to actively buy at this price. My judgment is, if BTC's final drop really comes, ETH will likely be hit even harder, since its liquidity is thinner. The strategy is the same: invest a portion regularly, keep a portion waiting for panic. #BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87% #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 Attention produces attention. Can that attention become self-replicating capital on-chain? Previously, some projects took part of the creators' income from token launches on Pump and continuously used it to deploy decoy tokens, constantly spamming to attract attention (a bit silly, but the logic is extractable). There are also projects that directly use creator fees to buy Dexscreener Boost, conduct Shiller Airdrops, Whale Airdrops, and so on. Actually, all these projects are exploring the same thing as Ansem's z500: Shifting attention from traditional, centralized, manually operated resources to an on-chain, self-circulating, and automatically expanding economic system. Letting attention automatically grow and expand on-chain, so memes are no longer just fleeting gambling chips but could become a sustainable cultural + financial asset jointly maintained by the community. In the meme world, attention is liquidity, it is market cap. Regarding the business of attention, there are many directions; Noise @noise_xyz long/short mindshare even received investment from Paradigm @paradigm. What else have you all seen? $BTC $ETH BTC 8.18 Intraday Flow Hunting Analysis｜Volume Surge Recovers 64,000, But Now Just Waiting for a Clear Long Position Pullback Conclusion first: BTC has used a 4-hour real body bullish candle combined with volume surge to firmly hold the lower boundary of the range and reclaim 64,000. The weekend projection of “a bottom near 62,500, then testing 64,000—64,500” has been completed. However, the current position is not suitable for chasing longs. After the breakout, new high-leverage long positions are increasing, and the market is more likely to first clear a round of leverage downward in the short term before deciding if it can continue to break upward tonight. ▌Current Structure BTC is currently trading within the 64,000—64,500 confirmation zone. The 4-hour candle has reclaimed near the Fibonacci 0.382 level at 64,060, no longer just a simple upper wick test. The real body bullish candle and volume expansion indicate active buying participation in this rebound; however, the price just broke above the descending channel’s upper boundary, and old trapped positions and short-term profit-taking will start to release above. So what needs to be verified now is not "whether it can still rise," but whether the first pullback after the breakout has support. ▌Pullback Observation Zones I mainly watch two levels. First observation zone: 63,500—63,700 There are three layers of resonance here: — Support zone formed by previous naked candlestick lower wicks — The 24-hour largest pain point for longs around 63,756 — The first structural pullback position after the breakout If the wick is not deep, the price may bottom out within 63,500—63,700, then reclaim 64,000 to continue the evening rally. Second observation zone: 63,350—63,450 The Fibonacci 0.236 level is near 63,385; liquidation maps show that near 63,430, the cumulative long liquidation intensity is about $141 million, with many 100x leverage positions concentrated. If the pullback is deeper, I will watch if 63,385—63,430 can complete liquidity sweep and quickly reclaim. Liquidation data only indicates where passive trades are likely to occur, not that the price must reach there, so I won’t blindly anticipate but will wait for confirmation after the wick. ▌My Long Position Plan First observation zone: 63,500—63,700 Deep observation zone: 63,350—63,450 Stop loss: 62,880 Entry condition is not just the price touching the zone, but a downward wick followed by a reclaim and a small-scale bottom confirmation. If 63,500—63,700 holds directly, I will treat it as a shallow pullback; if it continues down to around 63,385, I will wait for the deep sweep to finish before considering entry. If the price breaks below both observation zones and cannot quickly reclaim, I will not keep averaging down. The 62,880 stop loss triggers, indicating the initial structure of this rally is broken and the long logic ends. ▌Target Levels and Market Confirmation First target: Reclaim 64,000—64,500 If after the pullback the price stands back in this zone, it means high-leverage longs below have been cleared, the breakout structure remains valid, and remaining positions can continue to be observed. Second target: 65,000—65,500 Around 65,149 corresponds to Fibonacci 0.618 and is the upper resistance band of the previous rebound. If the price reaches 65,000—65,500 but only shows upper wicks and volume fails to expand, I will treat it as resistance and not fantasize about higher targets prematurely. Only if volume and price continue to rise together and a valid real body bullish candle holds above 65,500 will I look to the next target of 66,900—67,000. ▌Subsequent Path 66,900—67,000 is near the Fibonacci 1 level of this round and may form a daily double top with the previous high. If the market reaches here but shows volume stagnation, a pullback after a spike, or weakening small-scale structure, this could be the last August bull trap zone and where I look again for trend short positions. But reaching 67,000 does not mean the September crash is confirmed. True accelerated decline still requires a valid break below 61,500 and failure to reclaim on a rebound. Then I will continue to watch 54,000 and then 48,000. ▌Today's Execution Principles Do not chase longs above 64,000. Do not guess tops prematurely at resistance. After pullback, first watch wick depth, then if price can reclaim. Stop loss for longs is unified at 62,880; no averaging down, no holding losing positions. Only after reclaiming 64,000—64,500 post-pullback is the evening long continuation confirmed. Today’s trade is the pullback after breakout, not pre-trading the September crash. No K-line predictions, only condition confirmations. #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 $BTC Midday Market Wrap ​Gainers Side: Clear macro leadership is missing. Winners are split between micro-cap pumps ($PIEVERSE,$VVV) and short hedging vehicles ($SKDD,$SOXS), confirming equity and chip market stress. COMP offers a standard oversold relief rally, whileH shows pure volatility. Keep an eye on $GPS: trading ₽26.06 billion for a meager 5% pump signals intense overhead selling and an impending directional break. ​Losers Side: The AI and storage narratives are taking a severe hit. Heavy volume in $WLD, KAITO, andZHIPU shows institution-sized capital exiting speculative tech. Downside pressure on leveraged tools like $KORU further highlights regional equity softness. ​Core Takeaway: Tech and semi sectors are under global pressure, dragging crypto narratives down with them. High volume mixed with stagnant prices (like $GPS) is a red flag. Avoid chasing green spikes—midday fakeouts are common. Wait for Wall Street's open to confirm broader direction before committing capital. SanDisk rises nearly 9% again, the market is trading more than just storage price increases SanDisk closed the latest trading day up 8.94%, at one point rising over 11% intraday, while Micron also rose 4.12%. This round of capital continues to chase storage stocks, with the core reason not being short-term speculation, but the market re-evaluating the long-term storage demand brought by AI. SanDisk's FY2028 to FY2030 targets are quite aggressive: revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, operating margin about 75%, adjusted free cash flow rate about 50%; after completing business investments, it also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. More importantly, there is certainty. The company has signed long-term agreements with 8 customers, including 3 major U.S. hyperscale cloud providers, expected to cover about 50% of shipments in FY2027, increasing to about two-thirds by FY2028. In the last fiscal quarter, SanDisk's revenue was $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, with data center business revenue doubling quarter-over-quarter and a gross margin reaching 84.6%. Simply put, AI is pushing NAND from a strong cyclical commodity to an infrastructure asset with long-term orders and cash flow attributes. However, the stock price's year-to-date increase has been very exaggerated; what really needs to be tested next is whether the 80% gross margin can withstand the storage cycle, rather than only holding during the tightest supply and demand periods. #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 @OKX星球 [Warning!!! On-chain US stocks are extracting BTC liquidity] With the continuous boom of on-chain US stock trading, traditional crypto funds are being drained. The impact of on-chain US stocks on BTC liquidity is not a "permanent withdrawal of funds from BTC," but a three-layer structural reorganization: 1. On the on-exchange inventory level: The USDT margin pool is shared perpetually with US stock tokens, marginal leverage funds for BTC perpetuals are diverted, causing increased volatility in BTC contract funding rates and shallower depth at night. 2. On the order book level: The 2% order book depth of leading stock tokens like NVDAx/TSLAx perpetuals has reached 75% of the same platform's BTC spot (Okx data: NVDA-USDT about $4.1 million vs BTC/USDT about $5.5 million), liquidity on the order book is horizontally segmented. 3. On the cross-market level: On-chain US stocks bring in external stock investors and stablecoin increments, but settlements occur in USDT/on-chain channels, so BTC spot does not directly receive incremental buy orders, only indirectly benefits from the expansion of the stablecoin base. $BTC $SOL $ETH #Gold breaks above $4430, options capital turns bullish "Gold breaks above 4430, options bulls squeeze market makers" Spot gold surged past the $4430 mark, with global hot money being drained rapidly. While the market is still debating inflation trends, derivatives giants have already made their moves with real money. Sasquihana's quant desk scooped up 8,000 November $460 GLD out-of-the-money call options, and gold funds recorded their highest weekly inflows of the year. This strategy is like locking in top-tier chips at a very low entry cost on the eve of a spot breakout. Imagine market makers selling large volumes of call options at low prices; for every $1 rise in gold price, they must buy more gold in the spot market to hedge their risk. The buying pressure forces market makers to increase their positions, which in turn pushes gold prices even higher. Sasquihana's head of strategy admitted: "The options skew has shifted to the bullish side, with institutions expanding long exposure amid low volatility." When big money gains low-volatility leveraged certainty in precious metals, liquidity in high-risk crypto assets passively drains. Liquidity always rushes along the path of least resistance. To track this short squeeze pattern, just focus on the GLD call options skew indicator and the fund's single-day net inflow. As long as the skew does not retreat from high levels, market makers' passive hedging buy orders will not easily fade. $BTC 过去很多人喜欢把BTC定义成“独立资产”。 但机构化走到今天，这个逻辑已经明显改变。 CME研究显示，自2020年以来，Crypto与纳指100长期保持正相关；在2025年至2026年初部分阶段，相关性甚至达到 0.35—0.60。更值得注意的是：美股科技股下跌时，Crypto往往跌得更狠。 原因不是“美股操控币价”。 而是两边越来越受同一套资金逻辑控制： 实际利率下降 → 风险预算扩张 → 科技股、BTC、ETH共同受益； 美债收益率上涨 → 资金成本提高 → 机构降低Beta → 高风险资产一起去杠杆。 所以BTC越来越像一个24小时交易、杠杆更高、波动更大的全球科技风险因子。 这也是为什么昨夜美股值得币圈关注。 道指-0.51%、标普-0.52%、纳指-0.31%；微软、Meta均跌超3%。但资金并没有全面Risk-off——半导体指数反而上涨1.6%，MU约+4%，SNDK也继续强势。 这说明现在市场不是“科技股全面崩了”，而是： 资金正在科技内部重新选择方向。 BTC目前约 6.42万美元，同样没有因为美股回调出现失控抛售。 所以以后看Crypto，我认为至少要同时打开四张图$NVDA provides customers with hundred-billion-dollar-level data center lease guarantees and capital injections, with hardware supply beginning to deeply bind heavy asset liabilities. This type of off-balance-sheet credit endorsement changes the capital structure of computing power expansion, directly affecting the market's risk appetite and valuation tolerance for long-term assets. If funding costs continue to rise and downstream computing power repayments fall short of expectations, institutional positions' credit discounts on heavy asset cyclical financing will further manifest. If data center construction proceeds as scheduled and off-balance-sheet disclosures in financial reports remain stable, current contingent liability concerns will gradually be absorbed by cash flow. #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？#FinancialReportObserver: Xiaomi is about to release its financial report, which business line do you think is the most suitable? 👀 My personal opinion: The electric vehicle sector (Smart EV) deserves the most attention this quarter, even though it is not the largest in revenue yet. 📱 Smartphones: Expectations indicate a decrease in quantity with a price increase, due to rising memory costs that pressure profit margins (Futunn). So phones are still the backbone of revenue, but growth in this area is difficult at the moment due to global competition and the memory crisis. #XiaomiEarningsWatch I believe the 30-year US Treasury yield hitting a new high since 2007 is definitely a "headwind" in the short term for BTC, ETH, and gold, so don't rush to bottom-fish. Just yesterday, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.32%, which is a very alarming figure. What does this mean? It means that "risk-free" US dollar assets are now extremely attractive, directly draining liquidity from the market. I was watching the market last week, and whenever the Treasury yield rose, gold and Bitcoin immediately plunged, with an absurdly high correlation. Especially Ethereum, as a higher-risk asset, faces even greater valuation pressure than Bitcoin in this high-interest-rate environment. Because capital has an opportunity cost—when you can earn a guaranteed 5% by buying US Treasuries, who would want to hold non-interest-bearing gold or highly volatile coins? This is why these asset classes have been fluctuating and consolidating recently, as the macroeconomic threat looms overhead. For ordinary people like us, the strategy now is not to bet on a rebound of Bitcoin or Ethereum but to learn to "read the signals." That "signal" is the US Treasury yield; only when it starts a downward trend is it a signal for us to reallocate heavily into these assets. Until then, no matter how tempting their dips are, we must hold back because in a high-interest-rate era, cash is king. Where is the over $11 billion crypto capital flowing? In the first half of 2026, crypto recorded 377 funding rounds worth $11.2B, but only 2.8% flowed into unlicensed DeFi projects. => The permissionless era of crypto has almost come to an end. TOP 3 sectors heavily dependent on licenses account for 2/3 of total capital: 1️⃣ Payments and stablecoins: $3.7B 2️⃣ Prediction markets: $2B 3️⃣ Exchanges and trading platforms: $1.7B $DOS These two coins are very interesting. One is MONL1, a general-purpose L1 public chain with a solid background and top-tier institutions, but the L1 general-purpose public chain sector is too competitive, and the total market cap of ¥14 billion is too high. The second is the CC public chain, focused on real asset tokenization, ARW, which perfectly hits the current hot sector. The project has a large scale of implementation, with many traditional financial giants using it, and revenue is super high. The fatal flaw is the tokenomics are a complete mess, with infinite inflation, plus a total market cap of ¥24.2 billion. Most importantly, the project team is too low-key and lacks sufficient promotion. It's no wonder this can't rise.从十四万到两万二，这不是某个项目的价格走势，而是一位交易者账户的真实轨迹。🎢 当最初的雄心被市场狠狠修理之后，剩下的不是豪言壮语，而是一句带着自嘲的“算起来真容易”。 昨天，这位朋友在社交媒体上分享了自己的近况：账户净值只剩下两万二，其中在GPS上的浮亏是五千。他坦言，昨天能回一点血，完全是靠其他币种的带动把自己拉了起来。📈 从十四万的高点坠落之后，他给自己定下的每日目标已经降到了五百块。他甚至算了一笔账：按这个速度，年底就能重回十万。然后他笑着说，哈哈，计算起来真简单。 这短短几句话，其实是很多加密货币交易者的缩影。💭 它表面上是一个关于数字亏损的故事，但内里藏着的是市场情绪与心理的层层剥落：从最初的贪婪与自信，到中途的不甘与挣扎，再到最后降低预期、重新寻找平衡的妥协。 我们先来看这份“计算”。假设账户从十四万跌到两万二，回撤幅度超过百分之八十。想要回到十万，需要从两万二的基础上增长大约三点五倍。每天五百块的收益，对于两万二的本金来说，日收益率接近百分之二点三。🤔 这个收益率看起来不高，但关键在于持续性和稳定性。在波动剧烈的加密市场里，连续两百多天每天都实现正收益，难度远高于The recent BTC market can be summed up in eight words: extreme stalemate, waiting quietly for a breakout. After BTC rebounded to around $64300, it basically stopped completely, fluctuating narrowly all day with stagnant gains and losses. The market is very boring, but this kind of “calm” is often the most complex. Currently, market volatility has been compressed to a three-year low. Historically, low-volume sideways trading is always a precursor to a major move; now we are just waiting for the final catalyst. From the market sentiment perspective, the market has slowly recovered from extreme panic but is far from optimistic. Funds are very cautious now, neither daring to blindly sell off nor actively push prices up, resulting in a high-level low-volume consolidation pattern. Let’s talk about the real situation of bulls and bears: At the macro level, there is a marginal shift toward dovishness. U.S. economic data is weakening, market expectations for Fed rate hikes are cooling down, which is a relatively friendly environment for the crypto space; ETFs have finally seen a slight inflow, combined with technical rebound structure repair, signaling short-term stabilization. But the drawbacks are also obvious: institutional funds have not yet continuously returned, with net outflows overall in the past week; daily-level indicators have not fully turned bullish, and there is heavy sell pressure above $64500–$64800, making it not easy for bulls to break through. The current market is a typical 50-50 battle between bulls and bears, with no clear direction. Everything is waiting for the FOMC minutes release early Thursday morning, which is the most critical trigger for a breakout recently. Here’s a summary of the core battle range: The key resistance above is at $65000–$65500; only by holding above here can the rebound truly open up space; The lifeline below is at $62500–$62700; as long as it doesn’t break, the overall trend is sideways with a bias toward recovery. Once broken, the market will weaken again and test the bottom. My view: It is completely unsuitable to bet on direction prematurely now. In an extremely low-volume market, either wait for a volume breakout to follow the trend or wait for a support break to avoid risk. Before the news lands and the market chooses a direction, watching patiently and waiting for signals is the best strategy. BTC is always like this: the longer the sideways consolidation, the bigger the subsequent move. Just patiently wait for the breakout. This is a personal market analysis and information summary, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $BTC #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 Currently, $BTC is under extreme squeeze near $64,000, with the 30-day volatility approaching historical lows. The core issue is that the rebound driven by short covering lacks incremental spot buying support, and the structural shift has been pulled to a critical point. The current price remains in the $64,000 range, with a cumulative decline of nearly 27% since 2026. Since Friday evening, Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest has dropped by about 8%, confirming that the recent price recovery was mainly driven by short covering. After the past 8 instances of low 30-day volatility, the median absolute movement within 60 days reached 30.2%, with historical distribution showing 4 times upward and 4 times downward. The three main driving forces currently affecting the price structure, in order of priority, are: the continuously rising real bond yields, the squeezed position status in the derivatives market, and the strength of spot buying follow-through. If real yields continue to rise, they will directly suppress risk appetite and break the consolidation pattern. The bullish scenario starts with a breakout above the current consolidation upper boundary, with a theoretical target corresponding to a 30.2% move at $83,200. This scenario requires spot buying to take over the baton from short covering, while open interest expands again. If the price falls back below $64,000 and the short covering wave stops, the bullish structure will be invalidated. The bearish scenario signals a break below the current support structure, with a downside target corresponding to a 30.2% move at $44,800. If real bond yields accelerate higher, it will trigger active stop-losses from longs and cause a breakdown. If the price falls to support but open interest does not clear quickly, the bearish breakdown scenario will undergo logical revision. Before a one-sided trend at the 30.2% level is established, the failure point of the low-volatility consolidation range depends on the coordination between real yield changes and open interest. If the downtrend in futures open interest pauses while the price remains in a narrow range, it means the timing window for a structural shift will be further delayed. In the next 7 days, key observations will focus on the direction of real bond yields and whether open interest in the derivatives market can stop falling and rebound. #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂Sean Farrell from Fundstrat did a statistic — in the past 8 times when Bitcoin's volatility dropped to similar lows, the average price fluctuation over the following 60 days was about 30%, with half going up and half going down. Using 64,000 as the baseline, 30% up is 83,200, and 30% down is 44,800. The direction is uncertain, but the magnitude is certain. Last week, ETFs had a net outflow of 389.7 million. The week before, there was a net inflow of 853.5 million. Such a large directional change within one week indicates that institutions themselves haven't figured it out yet. ETFs are running, prices haven't crashed, and it's unclear who is currently absorbing the sell orders. But rebounds driven by short covering usually have limited sustainability. $BTC
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