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$AKE In the next 24 hours, I see the structure continuing to lean bearish; all rebounds are just for selling off. Based on the chip distribution: the top 100 on-chain addresses hold 88%, this supply has no spot market backing, only USDT perpetual contracts, so the price is controlled by a few addresses. Current price is 0.009586, down 7.06% in 24h, already retraced 42% from the 90-day high — this is not a one-time dump, but continuous bleeding. Open Interest of $39.2M is concentrated in such a structure, the long side’s counterparty is the large holders themselves. The ratio of whales to retail is 1.33x; public contract data is clear. Some interpret this as neutral to cautious, but I disagree: for an asset without spot backing, large holders are only 30% stronger than retail, meaning basically no one is truly absorbing the selling. A decline with no one absorbing can only go one way. The time window is just these 24 hours, no need to look further ahead. The chips are rotten at the source; the price is just the result. The underlying logic behind the fluctuating US Treasury yields and the differentiated reactions of BTC/ETH.
Many people simply understand it as: when US Treasuries fall, the crypto market rises; when US Treasuries rise, the crypto market falls. But in reality, divergences often occur in the market.
$BTC has already been regarded by institutions as an alternative major asset class, showing strong correlation with US Treasuries and the US dollar. When Treasury yields move, BTC quickly follows.
$ETH, besides being influenced by liquidity, is also constrained by on-chain activity, staking unlocks, and ecosystem sentiment. It is common to see an improved Treasury environment where BTC stabilizes, but ETH remains weak and volatile.
Key point: US Treasuries only address whether the "macro environment is favorable for going long"; they do not resolve ETH's own narrative confidence.
Liquidity is a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition for ETH's rise. No matter how good the macro environment is, if on-chain revenue falls short of expectations, ETH will still underperform.SanDisk closed at $1641 last Friday, and this morning pre-market it has already surged to around $1710–$1720. It rose 35% just last week, and today it shot up again in one straight move, making the bears almost cry.
In the same period last year, SNDK's single-quarter Non-GAAP EPS was only $0.29, but the latest quarter has reached $39.25, with next quarter guidance even higher at $44–$46.
In other words, behind the stock price surge, profits are also growing wildly.
At this price, how much future profit are you actually buying?
What the market is truly trading now is SNDK's earnings power over the next few years:
How long can the NAND demand driven by AI last?
How long can the current approximately 84% gross margin be maintained?
Can the company maintain around 80% gross margin in FY2028–2030?
The company currently expects that about two-thirds of FY2028 shipments are already covered by long-term customer agreements.
How long can this terrifying profitability today continue into the future?
The reverse is also true.
If the storage cycle peaks, NAND supply exceeds demand again, and profits start to plummet, then the valuation that looks reasonable today could instantly become very expensive.
So for SNDK at over $1700 now, I won’t simply say it’s expensive, nor will I say it’s cheap.
I will only ask one question:
At this price, how much future profit has already been priced in?$BTC
【BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (48)】
2022 Bear Market Cross ①: Light green line crosses below dark green line
2022 Bear Market Cross ②: Light green line crosses below orange-yellow line
2022 Bear Market Cross ③: Light green line crosses below blue-purple line
2022 Bear Market Cross ④: Dark green line crosses below orange-yellow line
2022 Bear Market Cross ⑤: Dark green line crosses below blue-purple line
2026 Bear Market Cross ①: Light green line crosses below dark green line (achieved)
2026 Bear Market Cross ②: Light green line crosses below orange-yellow line (achieved)
2026 Bear Market Cross ③: Light green line crosses below blue-purple line (achieved)
2026 Bear Market Cross ④: Dark green line crosses below orange-yellow line (achieved)
2026 Bear Market Cross ⑤: Not yet achieved
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
Gray-white line: Bitcoin price
Light green line: Average buy cost of coins held on-chain for 3-6 months (currently $73,577)
Dark green line: Average buy cost of coins held on-chain for 6-12 months (currently $95,129)
Orange-yellow line: Average buy cost of coins held on-chain for 12-18 months (currently $104,382)
Blue-purple line: Average buy cost of coins held on-chain for 18-24 months (currently $85,994) After years of "mass adoption is here," the ECB says just 0.2% of European companies accept crypto for online payments.
The truth: adoption was never the checkout button. It's happening as an asset and a settlement layer not a way to buy coffee.
Watch the right metric. $BTC Just early this morning, Trump gave a speech. Other things aside, the main focus was on the issue with Iran. First, Trump unilaterally declared his victory, claiming that the US has already crippled Iran. He also announced that the US now controls the Strait of Hormuz, even saying that oil prices will soon drop and that he does not intend to continue signing temporary ceasefire agreements with Iran.
However, this speech did not lower oil prices; instead, oil prices rose. On one hand, the market no longer believes in Trump's unilateral victory claims. On the other hand, Iran announced it will increase its "resistance" efforts in the Strait of Hormuz and stated it cannot allow the US blockade to continue indefinitely, especially since the latest data shows Iran's inflation has skyrocketed.
This situation was actually expected. Now both the US and Iran are somewhat at a breaking point, so it’s normal that both sides have hardened their stances. But I still don’t believe they will engage in an unrestrained war; that possibility is very low. From Trump’s speech, it seems he prefers to drag Iran down to death, since blockading Iranian ports poses a greater threat to Iran’s civilian livelihood.
Before and after Trump’s speech, Iran had already made many statements. The US stock market saw a slight decline, but Bitcoin actually rose. What frustrates me is that today I placed a high sell order at $64,000 because I didn’t think an agreement would be reached today, so placing the $64,000 order was no pressure. But now it’s already at $64,500, which makes me a bit uncomfortable, even though my cost basis is only $63,000. BTC holding above $64,000 while ETH and SOL lag is a relative-strength signal, not evidence of a broad risk-on turn. The market is favoring the most liquid crypto exposure rather than lifting the whole complex.
With the 30-year yield at a 2007 high and no September hike expected, the pressure is coming from the long end, not near-term policy fear. My stance is cautious: BTC can stay firm, but weak breadth makes this a poor setup for chasing smaller assets.
Not advice, just analysis.ETH has fallen back below 1900, which is more concerning than BTC's sideways movement, but a single short-term break does not directly indicate a bearish trend. Currently on the homepage, BTC is around 64206 with almost no change, ETH is about 1899, down 0.76%, and popular discussions are still dominated by high US Treasury yields; the pressure comes from external factors, but weakness is first reflected in ETH. To judge whether the breakdown is valid, I consider three points: whether ETH can quickly recover above 1900, whether spot sell volume increases when it breaks down, and whether BTC subsequently falls below 64000. If ETH recovers on low volume, it is more of a test of support; if it falls on high volume and BTC follows, the risk truly spreads. Do you think 1900 is more of a short-term psychological level or a structural level that must hold this round? $ETH $BTC Bitcoin is currently showing a bit of movement, so I took a look at the data.
1. 8/21 is the US monthly contract expiration date, so it’s quite significant.
Looking at the situation for the 8/21 expiration, it seems like it opened upward.
But from a broader perspective,
2. The overall volume of selling by traders is accumulating. (See image 2)
3. Additionally, there are many sell orders above, with a large accumulation of bullish options sold at the 70,000 strike price for the September contract. There’s no sign of a strong breakout.
In the short term, the direction might be to move upward to confirm resistance in that range, so it could reach that range. (See image 3)
4. To summarize, it’s not that there is a risk of a decline, but rather that there won’t be a significant rise at the moment. The takeaway is a limited upward structure, and that’s how it’s organized.U.S. stablecoin regulation has taken another step forward under the name GENIUS Act. If banks and fintech companies can actively participate in issuing stablecoins, how will the on-chain liquidity structure change? The U.S. Treasury and regulatory agencies have released detailed rules for stablecoin issuers used for payments, including licensing, compliance, and customer identification obligations. This is not just a regulatory issue but the starting point for integrating stablecoins into the existing financial infrastructure. Currently, major stablecoins like USDT, USDC, DAI, PYUSD, and RLUSD serve as the core foundation for trading, payments, DeFi, and on-chain liquidity. The question is where this capital is coming from. So far, a significant portion of stablecoin demand has come from crypto-native funds and arbitrage demand. However, as the regulatory framework becomes clearer, pathways will open for passive funds from traditional finance to flow on-chain. The key points are twofold. First, if institutional capital gains access to on-chain entry points, the spot demand and derivatives market for BTC and ETH will... Fundstrat released a report today that sent chills down my spine.
The report states that Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has dropped to a historic low. In the past 8 instances when this happened, the average volatility over the following 60 days was 30.2%.
At the current price of $64,000, a 30% move up would be $83,200, and a 30% move down would be $44,800.
There were 4 times it went up and 4 times it went down. The signal tells you "something's about to move," but it doesn't tell you "which way."
Fundstrat is very honest and doesn't sugarcoat things.
But what I want to say today is—this time is completely different from those previous 8 times.
The first difference: Monday's rebound was the shorts retreating, not new money coming in.
Today, Bitcoin rebounded nearly 2%, reclaiming above $64,000.
But Sean Farrell from Fundstrat clearly pointed out: this rebound mainly came from short covering, not a large influx of new buying.
The data doesn't lie—since last Friday, futures open interest denominated in Bitcoin has dropped about 8%.
What does this mean?
Shorts are closing positions and fleeing, not longs adding aggressively.
This is "passive buying," not "active buying." There's a fundamental difference between the two.
Passive buying happens when others can't hold their positions and are forced to close, pushing the price up—the fuel for this rebound is fear, not conviction. Once the shorts finish covering, the buying disappears.
Farrell himself compared this to the rebounds in early June and early July—those were also driven by short covering and fell back after the rise.
This time, it's very likely the same.
The second difference: real yields are the true "elephant in the room."
Farrell clearly states that the rising real bond yields are Bitcoin's biggest downside risk right now.
On August 14, the U.S. 10-year Treasury real yield reached 2.41%—the highest level since Bitcoin's inception in 2009.
Two years ago, this figure was only 1.77%.
What are real yields? It's the actual return you get from buying government bonds after adjusting for inflation.
Now you can get a 2.41% real yield, which is almost risk-free.
And Bitcoin? Zero yield, high risk, and down 27% this year.
Which would you choose?
If real yields continue to rise, Bitcoin's low volatility pattern could be broken at any time—but the break is unlikely to be upward.
The third difference: Bitcoin has already dropped 27% this year, and market sentiment is weak.
Since 2026 began, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 27% cumulatively.
From the all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, it has more than halved.
Talking about "historical volatility signals" in a weak market requires extra caution.
Why? Because the same signal means very different things at the bottom of a bull market versus the middle of a bear market.
After the 2017 and 2021 halvings, Bitcoin's gains in the first year were 1300% and 60%, respectively, while the 2025 return is -6.3%.
This cycle is different from before.
So my judgment is simple:
The signal confirms volatility is coming, but the short-term direction leans downward.
Short covering is "passive buying," a one-off trade. Real yields are an "active risk," applying continuous pressure.
First, we need to probe downward to find the true supply-demand balance before talking about a reversal.
Above $64,000, I won't chase.
At this position, the upside target is $83,200, and the downside target is $44,800. The odds are not balanced.
Between $48,000 and $52,000, I will seriously consider building positions in batches.
Why this range? Because $44,800 is the theoretical 30% downside target, and $48,000–$52,000 is its upper boundary. At that level, the downside is limited, and the upside could double.
This is not bearish—it's "wait for a pullback to confirm support, then look for a reversal."
Among Fundstrat's 8 samples, 4 went up and 4 went down, essentially telling you one thing:
Historical data only provides probabilities, not promises.
What truly determines direction is never what happened in the past—but what is happening now.
The short-covering rebound, the pressure from real yields, and the 27% drop this year—these three variables have never appeared simultaneously in the previous 8 instances.
This time is different—but the different direction might not be the one you hope for.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Currently, the US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering between 4.6% and 4.8%, the highest level since 2007. Although inflation is still above 3%, the real yield has turned positive and continues to rise.
What does this mean?
Risk-free returns have become more expensive.
Capital chases profits. When a "zero-risk" asset like Treasury bonds can give you a real return of over 4%, who would still want to put money into Bitcoin, an asset with 30% volatility?
Bitcoin's weakness over the past few months is highly correlated with rising bond yields. This is no coincidence.
If real yields continue to rise, it could become a catalyst to end Bitcoin's low volatility state.
Will it break upward or downward?
If real yields keep rising—capital flows from risk assets to Treasuries—the probability of a downward break is greater.
If real yields peak and fall—capital flows back to risk assets—an upward breakout becomes possible.
Bitcoin has already dropped nearly 27% this year.
Many are still fixated on the 64,000 level, thinking "it has fallen enough" and "it should rebound."
But the market doesn't care what you "think."
The market only cares about one thing: where the money is flowing.
And where the money flows is now dictated by the bond market.
In the coming weeks, don't just watch BTC's candlesticks.
Watch initial jobless claims every Thursday, and CPI and non-farm payrolls every month.What storage stocks fear most is not weak AI demand, but the market having already priced in the 2030 story too early.
Writing about $SNDK, $MU, $000660.KS, $005930.KS now easily leads to overexcitement. AI data center expansion, HBM shortage, NAND price increases, rising enterprise SSD demand, U.S. policy support, and the rebound in the Korean stock market—all are good stories. But the harshest reality in the stock market is: if a good story is priced in too early, it becomes a risk.
$SNDK was recently upgraded by analysts, and the market started discussing the huge AI-driven flash memory market potential through 2027 and 2030; after $MU surpassed $1000, investors began viewing it as a core U.S. AI storage asset; $000660.KS is seen as the HBM bottleneck, and $005930.KS as a low-expectation recovery. The problem is, once these expectations are reflected in stock prices, companies must continuously deliver.
The most dangerous moments in the storage industry’s history are often not when there is no demand, but when everyone believes shortages will persist for years. Manufacturers see high prices and expand production, customers see shortages and stock up early, investors see soaring profits and raise valuations. When expansion and stocking happen simultaneously, the next cycle of oversupply may be self-inflicted. AI may extend the cycle but won’t necessarily eliminate it.
Therefore, the key question in this storage rally is not whether AI demand is strong, but whether strong demand can offset supply expansion and valuation overstretch. Long-term contracts can improve visibility, but contract prices and execution risks remain to be seen; HBM shortages can bring high gross margins, but next-generation competition will be fiercer; NAND price increases can improve profits, but whether consumers and enterprises will accept higher prices is uncertain.
This is why the Aschenbrenner fund’s blowup in AI storage is so instructive. It wasn’t because AI has no future, but because the position size and expectations moved too fast. The market can create wrong prices even in the right direction. Even if the direction is correct, buying too expensively, using too much leverage, or having overly full expectations can still cause trouble.
So today, the most sophisticated way to talk about storage stocks is not "blindly bullish on AI storage," but rather "AI offers the storage industry a chance for revaluation, but the market is prematurely demanding 2030 answers." If these companies can truly convert AI demand, long-term contracts, high-end products, and capital discipline into stable profits, the valuation re-rating is justified; if they only package short-term price hikes as permanent prosperity, stock prices will eventually revert to cyclical discounts.
Storage stocks are hot now, driven by real demand and capital chasing. What truly determines the next phase is not how much they rise today, but whether companies can prove this is not the old cycle with a new AI label, but a genuine change in the industry’s profit structure. $SPCX Summary of Wall Street top investment banks' target prices for Rocket Company
1. Raymond James: Strong Buy, highest target $800 (extremely optimistic, assuming full reuse success of Starship and AI business explosion)
2. Morgan Stanley: Buy, base $300, optimistic $600, pessimistic $75
3. JPMorgan Chase: Overweight, $240
4. Deutsche Bank: Buy, $235
5. Goldman Sachs: Buy, $205-220
6. Citi: Buy, $200
7. Piper Sandler: Neutral, $145
32 mainstream analysts unanimously expect a central range of $224-231, but with huge internal divergence; pessimistic and optimistic targets differ by several times. Core variables focus on Starship test flight success, AI business realization speed, and capital expenditure consumption rate.
Reasonable valuation scenario estimates
SpaceX is still in a continuous loss state and cannot be valued by PE ratio; a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method is used:
1. Conservative scenario (Starship progress below expectations, AI commercialization slower than expected) reasonable range $150-185, corresponding to the current stock price running at the lower edge of the conservative range, market expected to further recover.
2. Neutral scenario (Starship steadily iterates, AI computing power business orderly landing) reasonable center $195-230, close to Wall Street consensus.
3. Optimistic scenario (Starship high-frequency reuse landing, AI revenue explosion): $280-310, achievable only if multiple positive factors are realized simultaneously. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
Personally, I am more optimistic about AIoT.
Here’s why: Although smartphones are fundamental and can attract a large number of users, the smartphone industry is extremely competitive. Selling one phone doesn’t make much profit; it can only maintain the base, making it hard to achieve big surprises.
The automotive sector has the greatest potential and the highest hype, but car manufacturing burns a lot of money, and competitors are fiercely battling. If sales don’t keep up, the pressure will be directly exposed. It’s a high-risk, high-reward opportunity with many uncertainties.
In contrast, AIoT smart home devices may seem less exciting but are actually very stable. People who buy Xiaomi phones often easily buy TVs, fitness bands, and home appliances as well. Once users have a bunch of Xiaomi devices at home, they’re reluctant to switch brands. This business is more profitable than smartphones, doesn’t rely on betting on hit products, generates steady income over time, and is more resilient to market fluctuations.
Of course, this doesn’t mean smartphones and cars aren’t important. Smartphones bring in new users, and cars open up new large markets. But if I had to choose one, I think AIoT is the underestimated segment that quietly supports the company’s core foundation. $XIAOMI @OKX中文 With so much money being poured in, when will it actually start making money?
The AI market has already entered its second phase.
#英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂
Previously, the discussion was: whose GPU is stronger? Whose model is better?
Now it’s turning into: who can still borrow enough money?
This year, tech giants are issuing large-scale debt for data centers, GPUs, electricity, and networks. At the same time, the U.S. government is also raising a lot of funds. Both sides are tapping the bond market simultaneously, resulting in long-term capital becoming increasingly expensive.
Today, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury has surged to 5.326%, the highest since 2007.
This creates an interesting contradiction: the hotter AI gets → the greater the capital expenditure → the higher the financing demand → the easier it is for long-term interest rates to stay elevated → high-valuation tech stocks actually face greater valuation pressure.
So I remain bullish on AI in the long term, but I will be increasingly selective about companies.
I believe demand for "shovels" like computing power, storage, networks, and electricity will continue to grow, but ultimately, the companies that can truly survive this AI arms race are not just the ones with the strongest technology, but those that can turn tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditure into actual orders, profits, and cash flow.
The AI market may be far from over $BB No matter how beautifully the blueprints are drawn, they are just colorful pages for outsiders. The real watershed has always been that first shovel digging down—whether the foundation's bearing layer is hard enough, and whether the rebar in the load-bearing walls is adequately tied.
Uniswap's announcement this time to synchronize with Arc's mainnet launch in September and go live is not just an ordinary "deployment." It's like hoisting the entire set of liquidity infrastructure prefabricated components from the old Ethereum district to Circle's construction site. Look at Arc's material specifications—USDC as Gas. This is equivalent to telling you directly that the project's concrete is custom high-grade, not some random sand and gravel mixed on-site with a backhoe. Using stablecoins as fuel means welding the entire transaction network's pricing unit to the US dollar peg. In the eyes of architects, this is called "eliminating material anisotropy"—transaction friction is smoothed out, and the cost curve is compressed into a straight line.
And "sub-second finality," these four words represent a true structural mechanics revolution. Experts know this is not about optimizing decoration; it's about changing the load-bearing structure. The traditional on-chain confirmation wait times of several seconds or even minutes are like the settling period of old brick-and-mortar structures—you have to wait for the walls to dry before building the second floor. Sub-second finality is like prefabricated steel-structure construction—once the components are in place, what does "financial engineering" have to do with it? Nothing. Tighten the bolts, weld the joints, and the floor beneath your feet can immediately bear weight. Uniswap, as the liquidity contractor, is simultaneously laying out and constructing on this foundation—lending, structured products, LP strategies, token issuance; these four blueprints start construction at the same time. This is not a bulk sell-off; it's compressing and packaging the "market" building, fitting it all into the same framework.
One thing I must remind you: Arc's developer is Circle, and the landowner background is "bringing their own building materials." The USDC they hold is ready-made sand and gravel aggregate. Now that Arc has scrapped the Gas fee and replaced it with its own stablecoin, it means all the tower cranes, slipform machines, and concrete pumps are burning diesel of the same brand. This makes other public chains still paying Gas fees in ETH look like teams still using steam hammers for piling in the 21st century.
The US stock token with the code XEWY in the market should not be seen as a stock; it is an indicator of "construction in progress turning into fixed assets." The current market sentiment is like the rainy season before a storm; everyone is watching the US CPI like a landowner watching the construction site's rainproof tarp—but true structural engineers don't stop pouring concrete just because it rained.
LP strategies are the decorator's work, and token issuance is like adding a glass room on the rooftop. Where is the core value? It lies in Uniswap's set of "liquidity" prefabricated wall panels, which can be dismantled from the facade of the old building and directly hung onto Arc's load-bearing system without secondary cutting, on-site painting, or tolerance adjustments. What is scalability? This is scalability—turning the dashed lines on the blueprint into rentable floor space.
As for short-term prices, swing shakeouts, and the bickering among civil engineering contractors, those are never the data to care about on the drafting board. The drafting board only has one kind of data: load. Whether Arc can absorb the liquidity cement brought by Uniswap and, after pouring, whether the "quick-setting agent" of sub-second finality can withstand the high-frequency shocks of the derivatives market—this determines whether the building will be residential with commercial podiums or a half-finished ruin.
Sub-second solidification means every floor slab is rigid and won't sway in the wind. This is the foundation on which all advanced derivatives rely to survive.
Now, the pile driver has started. The noise is just beginning.
#ImpactCycle·Monthly #IndustryTrend·StablecoinPublicChain #Uniswap·Arc·September #dailyorbit#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
I clearly state that this $93.9 billion long-term order marks the turning point where AI storage shifts from a "cyclical game" to "growth pricing," with value far beyond a single-day 8% increase.
The storage industry has traditionally been strongly cyclical, making profits one year and losses the next two, with capital speculating on a cycle reversal before exiting. But SanDisk and 8 customers have signed the longest 5-year locked orders, effectively securing the revenue base for the next few years and significantly smoothing out cyclical fluctuations.
This is not a short-term news-driven rally; it is a reconstruction of valuation logic—the market will shift from speculating on cycle inflection points to pricing stable growth, and the valuation baseline will systematically rise. Short-term chasing has a low risk-reward ratio, but pullbacks are windows for long-term positioning. Don't apply short-term thinking to industry trends.
Do you think the strong cyclical nature of storage stocks will disappear because of this?
$SNDK 地缘政治的火药桶再次被点燃，这一次的引信，恰恰是全球最重要的能源咽喉——霍尔木兹海峡。当袭击的消息传出，布伦特原油与WTI原油价格瞬间拉升，黄金同步走强，全球资金的第一反应是寻找安全出口，避险情绪像风一样掠过每一个市场。在这个节点上，比特币的处境显得有些微妙，也格外值得思考。 人们总是习惯于在冲突发生的第一时间，问出那个老问题：比特币，到底是避险资产，还是风险资产？这个问题的答案，其实并非固定不变，而是随着时间维度和市场情绪的阶段而变化。 如果把目光放到事件的初始冲击期，市场的反应往往是最直接也最情绪化的。恐慌的瞬间，资本会本能地涌向美元、美债和黄金这类最传统、最被广泛认可的避险载体。比特币在这一刻，通常是被归入风险资产一侧的，它与股票、大宗商品等高风险头寸一起，容易遭到流动性的挤压，甚至出现比传统风险资产更深、更快的回调。原因很简单，在情绪主导的短周期内，共识的建立需要时间，而共识的崩塌往往只在一瞬间。 但如果把时间轴拉长，故事的情节就会发生扭转。当冲突陷入僵持，市场对供应链中断的担忧加剧，通胀预期会随之攀升。在这个阶段，加密资产固有的抗通胀属性——特别是像比特币这样拥有总量上限的数如果只选一条业务线，我更看好小米的AIoT。 汽车的收入弹性更大，也最容易制造话题。但汽车仍处于重投入阶段。销量、收入和利润之间隔着产能、研发、售后与价格竞争。手机是基本盘，却正在同时承受需求下滑和存储涨价。 AIoT没有汽车那么性感，却是当前经营质量最好的一块。毛利率较高。资本开支相对可控。还能沉淀用户和设备入口。 集团层面，我维持悲观判断。 我不担心小米缺钱，也不怀疑公司的执行能力。我担心的是，市场仍然把短期压力理解成周期低点，并提前计入了汽车盈利、手机高端化和AI生态的长期回报。 这些预期，目前都缺少足够扎实的利润与现金流支持。 一、小米前一阶段的核心困境 小米2026年一季度收入991.42亿元，同比下降10.9%。经营利润下降59.5%。经调整净利润为60.72亿元，同比下降43.1%。 收入下降一成，利润接近腰斩。说明压力已经从销量传导到了利润表。小米2026年第一季度业绩公告 第一个问题来自手机。 一季度，小米手机出货量3380万部，同比下降19.2%。手机收入443亿元，同比下降12.5%。毛利率由上年同期的12.4%降至10.1%。 与此同时，手机平均售价上涨8.2%#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
Damn! The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged directly to 5.31%, a 19-year high! This isn’t just about rising interest rates; the market is clearly telling the US government: your fiscal credibility is completely finished!
The last time was on the eve of the 2007 subprime crisis. Stop blaming the Fed entirely; short-term rate expectations are actually cooling down. After the employment and CPI data came out, the market’s bets on rate hikes have been revised downward, yet the long end still skyrockets.
The real reason is uglier: uncontrolled fiscal deficits, a flood of Treasury supply, and buyers collectively giving up.
The Treasury just issued $25 billion in 30-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.216%, the most expensive since 2001, with a subscription multiple of only 2.39 times—ridiculously weak.
Primary dealers are forced to take on more, while overseas buyers and central banks continue to reduce holdings. The CBO has already raised its deficit forecast; debt interest is snowballing. AI giants are frantically issuing bonds to grab funds for data centers, chips, and power. With oil prices acting up again, the perfect storm is directly hitting.
The term premium is being repriced, the curve steepens, the short end stays still, and the long end soars. This isn’t rate hike logic; it’s credit pricing logic.
Looking at analysts on X, they say the bond market is actually repricing the US’s long-term risk. Soft data should have pushed yields down, but Japan, China, and the UK are all reducing US Treasury holdings. Once auctions weaken, the market breaks through support immediately!
Some big players also point out that AI-related companies’ issuance and government competition for funds, plus inflation exceeding targets for five consecutive years, mean investors demand higher compensation to lend money to Washington.
The damage to assets is direct. The risk-free rate is solidly above 5%, so the opportunity cost of holding those zero-coupon assets explodes.
Over the past year, Bitcoin has crashed miserably, while gold has surged nonstop. Central banks hoarding gold and doubts about US Treasury credit have pushed gold prices far ahead of risk assets.
BTC is now in the most awkward position: on one hand, it’s treated as digital gold; on the other, as a high-risk speculative asset.
With spot ETFs letting Wall Street dominate pricing, in a high-interest environment it’s easier for BTC to be used as a liquidity scapegoat.
Now, with 5%+ Treasuries easily beating inflation just by holding, who’s in a hurry to take on zero-yield risky assets? Short-term suppression is real unless rates truly reverse or there’s a big fiscal surprise.
2007 was about this level too, and then it crashed directly. Now it’s best to stay put and watch more.Strategy’s decision to skip a bitcoin purchase while selling about $334M in stock and lifting USD reserves to roughly $4.8B marks a notable change in emphasis. The balance sheet is being managed less as a one-way BTC accumulation vehicle and more as a capital structure with multiple obligations.
That does not necessarily mean the corporate bid is fading. A large cash cushion, conditional openness to buybacks below NAV, and the aim of returning STRC toward its $100 par value suggest flexibility now matters more than immediate deployment. The next signal is not simply whether Strategy buys BTC, but which claim on its capital it chooses to support first.
Not advice, just analysis.
#StrategySells334MStock【BitMine Continues to Buy the Dip on ETH, Just One Step Away from the 5% Target】
Last week, BitMine purchased another 9,926 $ETH, bringing its total holdings to 5.815 million coins, accounting for about 4.8% of Ethereum's circulating supply, having completed 96% of its goal to accumulate 5% of ETH.
Although currently facing significant unrealized losses, BitMine has been consistently buying every week for about 14 months since launching its ETH reserve strategy in 2025, without stopping.
What’s truly noteworthy is that they have staked over 5.06 million ETH, estimated to generate around $250 million in annual revenue.
This is the biggest difference between an ETH reserve company and a Bitcoin reserve company: $ETH not only appreciates in value but also continuously generates cash flow through PoS staking.
So if you are optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term development, I believe slowly dollar-cost averaging around $2,000 is really no problem. At least your cost basis will already be far below the average cost of the world’s largest ETH reserve company.
Do you think BitMine ($BMNR) will ultimately accumulate more than 5% of $ETH?30-Year US Treasury Yield Surges to 5.3%: Global Asset Gravity Doubles, What’s Next for Crypto Market Liquidity?
The 30-year US Treasury yield has skyrocketed to the 5.3% mark, directly setting a new record high since the 2007 financial crisis, with the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield also remaining elevated.
Many are puzzled: as the major global central banks approach the end of their rate hike cycles or even warm to the prospect of rate cuts, why are ultra-long-term Treasury yields accelerating upward against the norm?
The underlying force driving this surge in long-term yields is no longer the short-term inflation-fighting narrative, but the massive issuance flood caused by the US federal government's unchecked fiscal deficit, combined with the fierce competition for long-term capital driven by global AI computing infrastructure. The global bond market is demanding higher "term premiums" for these ultra-long-duration debts.
With the anchor for global risk-free asset yields firmly nailed above 5%, the entire capital market and crypto ecosystem will face profound repricing:
The first to be hit hard by valuation adjustments are all long-duration assets relying on distant future cash flow expectations.
The risk-free rate is the most critical discount denominator in all risk asset valuation models. When investors can reliably earn a 5.3% annualized return by holding risk-free US Treasuries, high P/E tech stocks lacking short-term profitability, as well as fringe altcoins driven purely by narratives and speculative liquidity, will see their valuation bubbles mercilessly squeezed.
For the crypto market, high interest rates are triggering an extremely brutal liquidity polarization and diversion.
Offshore capital will no longer blindly chase every speculative concept as it did in the zero-rate era. Incremental liquidity becomes extremely selective and conservative: on one hand, a large amount of idle funds will comfortably stay in high-yield fiat instruments and on-chain RWA (Real World Asset) yield protocols; on the other hand, the most risk-tolerant capital will accelerate concentration into Bitcoin core assets that have absolute consensus and can hedge sovereign fiat dilution.
Under such a macro interest rate regime, the wisest asset allocation strategy is always "control leverage, maintain cash flow, and refuse to burn principal on marginal junk assets."
Using deterministic financial tools to steadily collect interest as a safety cushion and patiently waiting for market valuation troughs caused by liquidity tightening is the survival path for long-term investors.
With long-term US Treasury yields maintaining a high-level norm above 5%, which asset class do you think will suffer the greatest valuation damage? Facing the current high-interest macro environment, would you choose to hold cash defensively to earn interest, or buy core crypto assets in batches on dips?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $SPCX SpaceX (SPCX) Market and Valuation Analysis
I. Core Logic of This Round of Rally
On August 17 in the US stock market, SPCX reached a high of $149.7, closed at $146.23, and fell back to around $144.6 after hours, firmly above the issue price of $135, fulfilling Musk's market narrative of "making shorts regret."
1. Negative impact from lock-up expiration fully priced in: The market previously widely expected that the lock-up expiration would bring massive selling pressure, but actual insider selling was far below the market's pessimistic expectations. The negative was realized and turned positive, breaking the consensus expectation of a decline.
2. Short squeeze driven by short covering: Shorts previously accounted for up to 34% of the float. After the stock price stopped falling and rebounded, a large number of shorts were forced to cover, creating a positive feedback loop of "rising → covering → further pushing up." The short interest ratio fell back to the 11%-16% range, lending rates dropped sharply, and short-term concentrated short squeeze momentum weakened, but some short positions remain, leaving room for repeated battles. Once the trend becomes clear, the price may rise further.
3. Business outlook recovery: Optimistic progress in Starship test flights and continuous revenue growth from Starlink, combined with AI business valuation re-rating brought by xAI and Cursor acquisitions, the market no longer views SpaceX simply as an aerospace company but as a composite tech stock of aerospace + AI computing power, raising risk appetite. Altcoin market enters a "rotation acceleration period," and what’s truly worth watching isn’t the top gainers list
Today, these two charts actually release a signal more important than "how much a certain coin has risen": capital is shifting from a single mainstream coin market to high-elasticity altcoins, AI, DePIN, RWA, and US stock-mapped assets.
From the charts, $GPS weekly gains have exceeded 50%, with $PIEVERSE, $OFC, $H, $ALLO, $EDEN, and others strengthening simultaneously. The most notable point here is: not all price increases belong to the same market trend. Some are active capital attacks, while others are just price elasticity caused by low circulating supply. If you only look at green gains, it’s easy to buy at the hottest emotional point.
I pay more attention to three indicators: whether trading volume expands synchronously, whether the price can consolidate after rising, and whether volume shrinks on a pullback after a breakout. These three conditions are much more important than single-day gains.
$GPS is one of the strongest targets worth studying today. A weekly gain of over 50% indicates that short-term capital attention has clearly increased, but the first risk after continuous rallies is profit-taking. The truly good position is not chasing the first big green candle but waiting for its first pullback. If trading volume shrinks significantly and the previous breakout area can form support, it means capital is not rushing to exit.
The logic behind $H leans more toward "identity verification + AI/Web3 infrastructure." The project itself has a clear narrative, but the biggest variable now is the token supply. On August 25, $H will have a relatively large token unlock, expected to release about 266 million tokens, approximately 2.7% of total supply and about 8.1% of current market cap. So even if the price is strong, the unlock pressure must be factored into the trading plan.
$ALLO belongs to the AI oracle/AI infrastructure sector, with good thematic elasticity, but it also faces supply pressure. There was a round of unlocks in August, and a larger unlock node is coming in November. Therefore, it’s more suitable to observe "capital absorption after pullbacks" rather than simply chasing gains.
Other coins worth adding to the watchlist are $ACU, $ALLO, $EDEN, $BICO, and $ONT. Among them, $ACU belongs to the DePIN/decentralized computing sector, with tokens directly used for network fees, computing payments, staking, and governance. Its fundamental narrative is relatively clear; however, there is also significant unlock pressure around August 20. Thus, "strong trend + unlock" must be considered simultaneously as variables.This decision comes from the administration of Donald Trump. Read that again, because the sequence of events is very important. In 2024, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump launched World Liberty Financial along with the sons of Steve Witkoff — who was later appointed by Trump as his special envoy to the Middle East. The website of this very company states it is 38% owned by "an entity affiliated with Donald J. Trump and some members of his family." In 2025, Trump signed the GENIU Act#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低
The boss has something to say
Goldman Sachs' chief economist Hatzius has set the tone, saying the likelihood of a rate hike in September is very low.
The reasons are clearly listed. Retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month, CPI and PPI both cooled down, and non-farm payrolls dropped by 23,000. All four data sets are moving towards easing, and the CME's probability of holding steady has risen to about 69%.
In one week, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 59% to 35%. The market is repricing faster than expected.
Wash's previous call for a rate hike if necessary now looks more like managing expectations in hindsight. With the data out, the Fed will ease when it should. Internal Fed divisions remain; Harker is still calling for hikes, Barkin says rates are sufficient, but when an institution of Goldman Sachs' caliber speaks out, the market's pricing weight is already shifting.
For BTC, the continued collapse of rate hike expectations is a medium-term positive. But in the short term, the market is still digesting the reality of new highs in long-term bond yields and tightening liquidity, so BTC remains sideways.
The SPCX base position continues its pattern, with a solid floating profit from 110 to above 150. BTC continues to wait for direction; the longer it moves sideways at this level, the stronger the breakout will be, but don't get worn down in the consolidation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Yields on government bonds in multiple countries worldwide are rising simultaneously, with the US 10Y reaching 4.74%, and the rise in risk-free rates is suppressing global risk asset valuations⚠️
On the other hand, the leverage thermometer for South Korean retail investors has surged to 52.23%, significantly breaking through the 45% red alert line.
Retail investor financing + leveraged ETFs are in a historically high-risk zone, making the market very fragile now.
If US Treasury yields continue to climb, combined with foreign capital outflows and forced liquidations of retail financing positions, it could easily trigger a negative feedback loop causing a synchronized internal and external sell-off.
⚠️This does not mean an immediate crash, but the damage from negative factors will be significantly amplified at present.
Key thresholds to watch:
▪ US 10Y breaks 4.85%, risk alert escalates further
▪ South Korean leverage thermometer falls back below 45%, fragility risk will ease
In a high-leverage environment, be cautious chasing gains and control position sizes.
For market observation only, not investment advice On August 17, the U.S. Treasury Department proposed the draft implementing rules for the GENIUS Act, further clarifying which stablecoins can be issued and sold in the United States.
The real novelty is not that "issuers must be licensed," but that it begins to define the boundary of "what counts as selling to Americans": direct promotion, advertising targeting U.S. users, continuing to express willingness to sell after a user actively inquires, and even teaching users how to bypass IP regional restrictions may all be deemed illegal sales.
This also means that for overseas stablecoins to enter the U.S. market, mere local compliance is not enough; they must complete the compliance path recognized by the U.S. and can no longer rely on the "user actively seeking them out" loophole.
What is worth watching next is how much space the final rules will leave for reverse solicitation, self-custody, and DeFi. $VVV is really buzzing right now, but the numbers need a slight adjustment. 👀
$5.6M volume in 24 hours looks strong, price is already around $11.95.
But one wallet keeps moving about 47.6K $VVV back and forth on Aerodrome — sometimes literally within minutes.
It creates a closed loop: movement → bots → more volume → even more attention.
I wouldn’t confuse this volume with pure organic demand just yet. $BTC Brothers, it's exploding! The US 30-year Treasury yield has surged to its highest point since 2007, this thing is more thrilling than a roller coaster. Simply put, the world's largest "risk-free asset" is being wildly sold off, and money is looking for an exit.
$ETH Think about it, even the "Americans'" long-term bonds are unwanted, so where will the funds flow? Although the crypto market hasn't directly rallied yet, the wider this "credit crack" grows, the stronger the "digital gold" logic for Bitcoin and Ethereum becomes. More subtly, Japan, the UK, and China all collectively reduced their US Treasury holdings in June, isn't this a stab at the dollar's credit?
$ZEC Looking at South Korea, the ruling party leader changed, and although they denied chips as the first US investment, M&G Investment Company increased its holdings of Korean bonds against the trend. What does this indicate? It shows global capital is searching for "relatively safe" havens. Goldman Sachs data also said global bond issuance dropped 16% year-over-year last week, capital flow is slowing, and the market is waiting for a direction.
Will it push Bitcoin to 100,000 or crash it down to 50,000 first
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Had dinner with a friend who works in private equity over the weekend, and he showed me a tweet.
Billionaire Gundlach said: "Using assets with unknown life cycles as collateral for long-term debt?" He added — it's like issuing 30-year bonds backed by bananas in a warehouse, even if they are "newly improved bananas."
He was talking about NVIDIA. Last week, NVIDIA pulled in six major financial institutions to set up a $50 billion AI infrastructure financing platform.
My friend laughed after reading it and said, "Old K, think about it, how much is the A100 from three years ago worth now? Does anyone still want the V100 from five years ago? AI chips become obsolete faster than bananas rot."
He's right.
But on the other hand, Mark Cuban said, "Chips as an asset class will become the new cryptocurrency."
The same thing is called a new cryptocurrency by one side and a rotten banana by the other.
I don't know who's right. But I do know one thing — when top tycoons give completely opposite judgments on the same asset, the pricing of that asset must be problematic.
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ What truly weighs down risk assets is not just internal funds in the crypto space, but long-term interest rates. Currently, the homepage shows BTC up about 0.16% and ETH down about 0.67%. The hot topic is that the 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2007; Against this backdrop, BTC remains resilient near 64,300, but ETH's weakness suggests risk appetite has not recovered in tandem. I will check three signals: whether long-term bond yields continue to rise, whether the US dollar index strengthens in tandem, and whether BTC can maintain spot support under macro pressure. If interest rates rise but BTC remains unbroken, resistance to declines may attract incremental capital; If ETH continues to extend its decline, the market remains defensive. Do you think we should focus on US Treasury yields or spot BTC trading now? $ETH $BTC #MustReadForBeginners: Everything You Need Is Here
Why am I confident to keep a bullish stance on BTC at this point? Three solid core logics, each more robust than the last.
The more the market hesitates and wavers, the more I want to make my view clear: at this stage, I firmly continue to be bullish on Bitcoin.
This is not self-comfort after being trapped, nor just empty talk. I hold a base position and reserve funds for averaging down, with a sufficient safety cushion, which gives me the confidence to make this judgment. The following three logics have all been validated by real market conditions, not just chart speculation.
First: The global liquidity long cycle has quietly reached a turning point.
What was the biggest nightmare for the market in the past two years? The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, continuous balance sheet reduction, and a strengthening dollar, which continuously drained global dollar liquidity.
Now the tide has completely turned: US CPI and PPI data continue to cool down. Although core inflation remains sticky, the downward trend is already established. Fed officials still maintain hawkish rhetoric, but the market pricing has long since reacted— the probability of further rate hikes has been pushed to extremely low levels, and the market has begun comprehensive discussions on the timing of rate cuts.
You may disagree with my market forecast, but you cannot ignore the results of capital voting with real money. CME interest rate futures keep raising expectations for future rate cuts, and the dollar index is stuck under pressure at high levels, with the possibility of turning weaker at any time.
Liquidity is the lifeblood of Bitcoin’s market.
During a rate hike cycle that drains liquidity, BTC naturally remains sluggish and struggles to rise; once the liquidity cycle shifts from tight to loose and financing costs drop, capital will naturally return to risk assets. Bitcoin, as a highly elastic liquidity asset, will inevitably benefit first. The liquidity bottom turning point is already visible, and the mid-to-long-term upward soil is slowly forming.
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC $ETH $SNDK 📊 Market is clearly diverging: the storage sector is strong, mainstream crypto is moving sideways, cryptocurrencies are unevenly hot, and crude oil is slightly stronger, with very clear capital diversion. 1. $BTC (+0.16%): Slight red, maintaining range-bound fluctuations. Looking at the data, overall trading volume has shrunk, implied volatility is at historic lows, ETF buying is weak, and stablecoins continue to flow out. In the short term, it is difficult to break out of a breakout unilateral rally; it is highly likely to continue oscillating within a range, waiting for increased volume signals before potentially challenging the previous high. 2. $ETH (-0.32%): Closed slightly weaker. In terms of capital, ETH has an advantage over BTC, with a higher net inflow ratio for ETH spot ETFs, making it more attractive for medium- to long-term capital; However, in the short term, it follows Bitcoin's volatility and offers greater elasticity. If the market experiences sharp fluctuations, the pullback will be greater than BTC's. 3. $SOL (-0.22%): Slight decline. It is a sector-driven stock, lacking independent positive drivers, and its price is highly dependent on overall crypto market sentiment. In a stock environment, it is difficult to break out of major rallies on its own. 4. $SNDK (+0.74%) and SK Hynix (+0.93%): Leading strongly today. AI storage and HBM shortage expectations continue to attract institutional funds and are currently the core capital hubs; A large amount of funds diverted from the crypto sector to storage-related stocks, which is a key factor limiting the Bitcoin rally. The storage sector will continue to maintain high attention. 5. $MU (-0.89%): Slight pullback. Both belong to the storage sector, but have seen short-term gains#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
Wow, the 30-year US Treasury yield has surged straight up to the highest point since 2007. Simply put, institutions are unwilling to hold long-term Treasuries unless they get higher interest rates.
This thing is basically the "waterline" for global assets. When yields spike, valuations for risk assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin get pushed down, making them prone to sharp corrections, according to Sina Finance.
At the root, it's because the government's fiscal deficit is huge, issuing bonds like crazy, plus the market expects inflation won't subside anytime soon, so no one is eager to grab long-term bonds.
We all need to be aware: as long as this yield stays elevated, don't blindly bottom-fish. The market is too volatile now; don't just think about grabbing gains. Position sizing and stop-losses need to be planned in advance to avoid getting trapped by big macro moves.
$MSFT $AMZN ⚡The magical market scene tears the market apart! Stablecoin market capitalization breaks historical highs, altcoins collectively hemorrhage! Massive funds lie dormant, why are they reluctant to enter the market?
Altcoins are collectively bleeding, where exactly has the trillion-dollar dormant capital gone? 🤔
Currently, on-chain data presents a bizarre and conflicting pattern.
The total circulating market value of stablecoins across the entire network has quietly surpassed $170 billion, setting an all-time high. Looking back at past cycles of bull and bear markets, the steady expansion of stablecoin volume usually means off-chain funds are ready, and a booming altcoin market is imminent.
But this time, the market trend completely breaks past rules. Except for BTC and a very few top coins, the vast majority of altcoins in the market have not seen a broad rally; liquidity continues to dry up, and prices keep drifting downward.
Hundreds of billions of newly issued stablecoins quietly lie on-chain. What is the reason this capital has not yet entered to support altcoins?
The core essence is: the use of stablecoin funds is already completely different from the last cycle.
In the last bull market, traders converted funds into USDT and USDC with a very clear goal—to flood the secondary market to speculate on altcoins and participate in dog coin rallies. Stablecoins were purely speculative chips.
Times have changed. Now, a large amount of stablecoins no longer flow into the secondary market for speculation; funds are continuously diverted into three main tracks:
🔹First major destination: RWA tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds
Institutional investors and whales put huge amounts of stablecoins into interest-bearing products like BlackRock BUIDL, steadily earning nearly 5% risk-free U.S. Treasury yields. This capital lies safely earning interest and will never risk participating in the volatile altcoin trading.
🔹Second major destination: cross-border trade settlement
In emerging regions like Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, USDT is widely used for bulk commodity trading and cross-border fund transfers to hedge against local currency depreciation. Merchants have large daily on-chain transfer volumes but only view stablecoins as settlement vehicles, completely avoiding any token speculation.
🔹Third major destination: institutional low-risk arbitrage business
Traditional hedge funds use stablecoins for cash-and-carry arbitrage, targeting stable returns while actively avoiding the huge price volatility of altcoins.
This creates a contradictory market: on-chain dollar liquidity reaches a historic peak, but speculative funds willing to gamble on altcoins are continuously divided.
Everyone must clarify the key logic: an increase in on-chain settlement scale does not equal the arrival of altcoin bull market buying.
Tokens are continuously issued, speculative funds are continuously diverted, and the era of blindly hiding in old altcoins waiting for explosive gains is long over.
Stablecoins keep hitting new highs, altcoins continue to see capital outflows. Facing this split market, I want to ask everyone:
Do you choose to heavily hold BTC paired with stablecoins for conservative defense, or do you still hoard a large amount of trapped altcoins in your portfolio?
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 $BTC $ETH $SNDK The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high since 2007, and this is the most critical point.
This afternoon, when I opened the market software, among a bunch of red lines, I was only focused on this one.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
What kind of year was 2007?
That was the last spree before the subprime mortgage crisis exploded.
With yields pushed to this level, the market's nerves really don't relax at all.
What does this have to do with Bitcoin?
Simply put, risk-free money now earns interest just by sitting there.
Who would still want to take on risky assets and bet on Bitcoin, which has been stuck around 64,000 for a long time?
Looking at ETFs, there have been net outflows for three or four consecutive trading days.
Incremental funds are already scarce, and US Treasuries are still aggressively draining liquidity on the side.
It's not that no one is watching Bitcoin; they're just waiting for a direction.
Goldman Sachs also came out saying the possibility of a rate hike in September is very low.
But even if rates don't go up, yields are being pulled very high.
Risk assets still need to catch their breath first.
#Macro #USTreasuryYields #Market☀️ Midday Highlights｜August 18
① Asia Express: Dominated by “fabricated rumors” about BitMart founder and Binance bStocks
Binance's bStocks became the second-largest tokenized stock issuer just two months after launch, while internal conflicts at BitMart erupted before its shutdown, drawing attention; indicating that stablecoins and asset tokenization are still expanding.
Source: Cointelegraph
② Alleged $165 million Ponzi scheme mastermind faces US charges after deportation from Fiji
The alleged mastermind of a $165 million Ponzi scheme faces US charges after being deported from Fiji; indicating that on-chain funds and industry trends are worth continued monitoring.
Source: Cointelegraph
③ SafePal Bitcoin wallet data leak raises concerns over physical attacks
SafePal’s order tracking plugin had vulnerabilities exposing nearly 40,000 customers’ names, addresses, and phone numbers; indicating that related security and asset protection risks still require vigilance.
Source: Decrypt
📊 BTC $64,071.00 +1.2%｜ETH $1,891.80 -0.5%
#Cryptocurrency #Crypto #Web3
Compiled by Bowen｜Filtering out noise, focusing only on key points Short one lot near $SNDK 1830 resistance, this idea is still solid!
Although there is some speculation involved, the risk-to-reward ratio of betting small to win big is quite good, with pullbacks usually around 100-200 points.
The short position at 1800 can be partially secured steadily, leaving the rest to let profits chase more profits.
Although SanDisk is a volatile stock, it generally follows a one-sided market trend. If it really follows this pattern, a pullback of 200-300 points is still very easy.
If you haven't entered yet, try shorting one lot around 1750!
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
Trend analysis for $BTC $ETH after this event materializes
Core background: The 30-year US Treasury represents the long-term risk-free rate, reaching a multi-year high, indicating market pricing: high interest rates will persist far longer than previously expected, not a short-term spike, but a global asset valuation anchor uplift.
Underlying transmission logic
1. Cost increase
The 30-year Treasury offers a high certainty yield, causing institutional funds to reduce allocations to high-volatility crypto assets.
- BTC: No interest income, thus more impacted.
- ETH: Has staking annualized yield, which can slightly hedge some pressure.
2. Passive tightening of global liquidity
Long-term yields rise, increasing market borrowing costs. Leverage costs in crypto rise!
3. Stronger US dollar
Rising Treasury yields drive a stronger dollar; crypto assets priced in USD face exchange rate pressure, reducing overseas incremental capital inflow willingness.
BTC and ETH divergent performance
BTC
- Institutional allocation target; ETF fund flows are key to watch. With yields continuously rising, ETFs tend to see sustained net outflows, suppressing upside potential.
- During declines, as a large-cap base, drawdowns are relatively controllable.
ETH
- More sensitive than BTC. On one hand, staking yields provide a buffer; on the other, DeFi, Layer2, and on-chain activity heavily depend on market risk appetite.
This is not investment advice. Operations should still wait for specific signals The most interesting thing about the market right now isn't a single big bullish candlestick, but that funds are quietly searching for the next stop beyond BTC and ETH. Currently, $BTC has regained the upper price of around $64.8K, while $ETH is repeatedly battling near $1.92K. But what really caught my attention were the two completely different signals given by $SOL and $LINK. $SOL: Funds have already moved first, but prices have not fully caught up Recently, Solana-related ETF inflows have clearly rebounded, with weekly size around $12.4M, marking the strongest level in months. More notably: capital inflows ↑, market attention ↑, but SOL's price elasticity has not expanded in tandem. Is this capital positioning in advance, or is the market still lacking confidence in SOL's rise? If BTC holds steady, ETH continues to strengthen, and SOL begins to break out with increased volume, this could become an important signal of renewed risk appetite in the altcoin market. $LINK: Another logic—infrastructure narratives like LINK and SOL are different. It is more like betting on the expansion of the entire on-chain economic infrastructure, rather than simply betting on a single public chain ecosystem. As RWA, cross-chain communication, on-chain finance, and institutional-level blockchain applications continue to develop, the importance of oracles and cross-chain infrastructure is also increasing. So if the market expands from "large-cap assets" to the infrastructure track in the next phase, it $LINK $SPCX now Long Vanna. If IV spikes fast, market makers might need to sell stock to re-hedge.
Small move stability looks decent. Large move stability not as strong as it appears.
IV ≈ 63%, RV ≈ 104%. Realized vol way above implied. Recent swings brutal, but market pricing in normalization ahead.
140 area seeing heavy dark pool prints, dense option activity, major Delta/Gamma concentration.
Price gravitating back here. Where bulls and bears willing to swap big size.
Real structural danger zone: 125. That's the breakdown threshold.
Break 125 → trend over.
#GoldOptionsTurnBullish 🔥 当散户的共识开始拥挤，市场的反身性往往就在悄悄转向。合约多空比是观察情绪温度的一个窗口，但它更像一面镜子，映照出群体心理的极端与摇摆，而不是可以直接下单的导航仪。在加密衍生品市场里，多空比统计的是当前持仓合约中多方和空方的数量对比，数字越极端，越说明某一方的情绪已经高度集中。而拥挤的仓位结构，从来都是行情剧变的温床。 以$LAB为例，在经历了一轮令人侧目的强势拉升、累计涨幅一度接近700%之后，合约盘上的多空比依然高达9.1。这个数值意味着多方力量已经远远压倒空方，市场几乎形成了一边倒的看涨共识。但值得注意的是，很多参与者的心态并不是顺势追涨，而是抱着“抄底回本”的执念继续加码。币圈的残酷之处就在于，当普通人的持仓方向高度一致时，市场往往不会让大多数人如愿，反倒可能通过剧烈震荡来清洗过度集中的筹码。盛极而衰的道理在合约市场里，常常以最直接的方式呈现。 再看$CAP，多空比只有0.26，空头扎堆，市场情绪明显偏空。可历史经验告诉我们，极度极端的空头情绪有时候恰恰是反向变盘的温床。当所有人都盯着同一扇门准备离场时，一旦门外的风突然改变方向，空头反而可能成为推动行情的燃料。这种心理上的$SNDK
The 1730 level is a recent strong resistance point, and at this level, Yuxin officially led fans to ambush short positions.
Don't be fooled by the impressive financial report data; most of the profits come from price increases, not from increased shipment volume. Consumers on the phone and PC ends can't bear the high prices and are already controlling inventory, leading to insufficient demand momentum.
At the same time, major storage manufacturers have officially announced plans to ramp up production, and the market will price in the risk of increased future supply in advance. The worst scenario for cyclical stocks is to see an expansion wave at the end of a price increase.
The stock price has surged significantly earlier, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. Around 1730 is just near the target level after institutional downgrades, and the bulls lack the momentum to push higher. If it fails to break through this level, it is easy to face profit-taking selling pressure.
There is also differentiation within the sector. The long-term story of AI storage remains, but short-term benefits have basically been realized, and funds have the impulse to cash out and exit. Short at 1730, the game is about a rebound encountering resistance and falling back. Place the stop loss above 1770, and the first downside target is around 1620 The market has recently seen a rebound, but funds have not fully spread into the altcoin sector. Currently, $BTC is about $64.1K and $ETH about $1.88K, indicating the market remains in a critical confirmation phase. Notably, the Solana spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about $10.26M last week, marking its strongest weekly performance since May, indicating that some institutional funds have begun to probe into the altcoin sector, but funds remain highly concentrated. Meanwhile, demand for BTC ETFs has cooled recently, regulatory progress remains uncertain, and the SEC's postponement of related crypto rule meetings has further suppressed market risk appetite. So, what really needs to be watched now is not "which altcoin has already risen by how much," but rather: 👉 $BTC can consistently climb above $65K 👉 $ETH can reclaim $1.9K–$2K 👉 funds$DOGE$XRP$SOL. Altcoins are not without opportunities, but capital rotation is still lacking. If BTC stabilizes and ETH breaks through, the next round of capital expansion may truly accelerate. Before signals appear, it's better to wait for confirmation of capital flows than to chase rallies. 📊🔥$BTC remains in a balance between macro positives and institutional hesitation. 📊
Weak macro data lowers rate hike odds for September, offering liquidity support.
Yet recent US spot ETF outflows topping 1100 BTC limit rapid upward momentum.
Capital is also shifting into $ETH for staking yields and settlement utility.
Watch the Fed minutes and whether weekly ETF inflows can exceed $500M. ⚖️SanDisk is attempting to transform its previously highly price-dependent NAND business into a business with greater long-term visibility through multi-year customer contracts. SanDisk had only one truly significant corporate event last week: the 2026 Investor Day held on August 13 at #闪迪收涨逾8%, with long-term agreements in the spotlight. Management presented a long-term financial model for fiscal years 2028 to 2030: · Annual revenue growth rate in the mid-to-high teens, approximately 15%–19% · Non-GAAP gross margin about 80%, non-GAAP operating margin about 75%, adjusted free cash flow margin about 50% The company also stated that, after meeting business investment needs, The plan is to return 100% of the remaining cash to shareholders. SanDisk wants to do just one thing: in the future, not only will it sell memory chips, but it will also lock in customers, quantity, and pricing rules in advance. Against this backdrop, the most noteworthy thing on Investor Day is not a single product, but SanDisk's attempt to change its trading methods. The company calls the new multi-year contract NBM, or "New Business Model." According to SanDisk's disclosed framework, these contracts include committed procurement volumes, enforceable contract arrangements, minimum financial protection, and structured pricing mechanisms. Prices are not necessarily fixed, but rules are set in advance. As of Investor Day, the company has signed NBMs with eight clients. The storage capacity covered by these contracts accounts for about 50% of SanDisk's bits shipped in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. 📰 SanDisk: Long-term model *beautiful, but still the goal this model is trying to bring back[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh says directly, Sandisk's recent rise is really not driven by sentiment; the market has realized it is no longer the cyclical stock that "rises with price hikes and crashes with price drops." It closed up over 8% last week, accumulating a 35% gain over five days.#XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals