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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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Saylor的“叛变”:当最大多头开始囤美元,意味着什么? 过去五年,Michael Saylor只有一件事——买比特币,买比特币,还是买比特币。 每周一晒持仓图,成了币圈的固定仪式。像闹钟一样准时。 但过去几周周一,闹钟没响。 8月10日至16日,Strategy没有买入或卖出任何比特币,持仓维持在840,447枚,总持仓成本约633.6亿美元,均价约75,385美元。 这不是一周的偶发事件。 这是连续第八周没有增持。 同期,Strategy通过ATM计划出售345.89万股MSTR普通股,净募资约3.337亿美元。其中1.491亿美元补充美元储备,1.322亿美元回购STRC优先股,5240万美元支付STRC股息。 过去五周,Strategy累计出售约21亿美元普通股,回购约3.47亿美元优先股,还卖了2.133亿美元比特币。 截至8月16日,公司美元储备余额48亿美元。 你没看错——最大多头,在囤现金。 怎么理解这件事?三个层面。 第一,战术层面:修复资产负债表。 Saylor自己说了:股票回购暂非优先事项,目前优先考虑STRC优先股、现金储备和信贷业务。 他在干嘛?在堵窟窿。 STRC优先股跌到75美元(面值100),公司需要现金来稳定它。48亿美元现金储备,够覆盖未来两年半的股息和债务义务。 这不是看空BTC,这是在给自己穿救生衣。 第二,战略层面:等一个更好的时机。 Saylor说如果MSTR相对资产净值出现“非常深的折价”,可能考虑回购。 翻译成人话:我在等更低的价格。 MSTR今年跌了约38%。比特币持仓浮亏约100亿美元。现在的市场环境,不是All in的时候。 他囤这48亿美金,不是不想买——是在等一个更好的价格再买。 第三,信号层面:连最坚定的多头都在主动管理仓位了。 这才是最扎心的地方。 过去五年,Saylor的叙事是“永不出售”、“永远看多”。2026年5月,他第一次卖比特币——32枚,为了付股息。 现在呢?连续八周不买,反而卖股票囤现金。 市场正在发生质变——从“信仰驱动”切换到“现金流驱动”。 再说个背景。 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率已经飙到65%-66.9%。7月零售销售下滑、非农意外减少2.3万人。 高息环境还在持续。借钱买币的成本越来越高。 Strategy每年光优先股股息和利息就有17.6亿美元的刚性支出。不囤现金,拿什么付? 以前是“买买买”的叙事,现在是“活下来”的叙事。 那问题来了—— Strategy究竟是在为下一轮牛市保留弹性,还是它作为“企业BTC买盘”的角色正在永久性减弱? 这个问题,比BTC短期涨跌重要一万倍。 过去两年,Strategy是市场上最稳定的买方力量——每周几亿美元往里砸,给整个市场提供了流动性底仓。 现在这台“买币机器”熄火了。 谁来做那个“永续多头”? 没有人。 Saylor自己都说得很清楚了——他也在等。 最后说一句。 当最大的多头开始囤美元、等更低的价格—— 你还敢无脑梭哈吗? $BTC $ETH $OKB #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票,提高美元储备
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
40 trillion in U.S. debt overhead, Hartnett says buy gold, but I want to suggest another option On August 3rd, U.S. national debt officially surpassed 40 trillion dollars. Just 65 billion dollars short of that "largest integer milestone in history." This is not a prediction; it has already happened. And just yesterday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 5.29%—the highest level since 2007. Only 15 basis points shy of the 5.44% peak set during the 2007 global financial crisis. You think that's all? Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett said: U.S. debt will not only break 40 trillion in the coming days but will surge to 50 trillion around 2029. The first trillion took 192 years; the last trillion took only 5 months. This is not debt; this is out of control. Let's look at some numbers that will keep you awake at night: In the past 12 months, U.S. debt interest payments have reached 1.4 trillion dollars. What does 1.4 trillion mean? It’s approaching and surpassing Social Security to become the federal government’s largest single expenditure. You read that right—the U.S. government will soon pay more in interest than in pensions. Last week, the 30-year Treasury was issued at a 5.126% yield, a 25-year high. Hartnett’s exact words: "U.S. stocks hit record highs the same day Treasuries were issued at the highest yield in 25 years—this is reality." What’s Hartnett’s conclusion? Go long gold. His logic is solid: gold is the best hedge against dollar depreciation, bond market collapse, and political risk. In his framework, the core principle is just three words: stay away from the dollar. He added a harsh warning: unless the 5-year Treasury yield falls below 3.25%, the worsening trend in interest payments won’t reverse. And without a major deflation shock or recession—that’s almost impossible. In plain language: interest will only get more expensive, and debt will only grow. Hartnett is right, but he missed one option. Gold has indeed surged this year. Since August, international gold prices rebounded from $4041/oz, once hitting $4400, with a weekly gain over 7%. August’s cumulative rise was nearly 9%. Global central banks’ net gold purchases in Q2 were 288.9 tons, up 411% quarter-over-quarter. And Bitcoin? It’s still hovering around $63,000–$64,000. Gold rose, but BTC didn’t keep up. But that’s exactly the opportunity. Why? Because when sovereign wealth funds start shifting from U.S. debt to physical assets, they will eventually face an awkward fact: Gold has physical limitations—slow trading, expensive storage, complex cross-timezone settlement. Bitcoin does not. Bitcoin is the only "digital physical asset" that can be traded globally 24/7 without any central bank involvement. No counterparty risk. No trading hour restrictions. No borders. You say it’s digital gold? No—it’s goldier than gold. Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, said something yesterday worth engraving in your mind: "The moment bond traders can stop panicking is when the Fed starts panicking." The 30-year yield will only truly peak after the Fed finally takes rate hike action. Castle Securities put it more bluntly: the Fed remains reluctant to tighten monetary policy, posing broader risks to the overall market. Policymakers always choose the easier path when facing tough decisions. What’s the easier path? Printing money. What’s the result of printing money? Your dollars become worth less and less. So my conclusion is simple: Hartnett says buy gold, I say— gold + Bitcoin, hold both strong. One is the traditional weapon to hedge dollar depreciation; the other is the ultimate fortress against the fiat system. One is bought by central banks; the other cannot be bought by central banks. 40 trillion U.S. debt overhead, 1.4 trillion interest bloodsucking, 30-year yield at 5.29% and still rising. What are you waiting for? Waiting for the Fed to panic? By the time that day comes, it will be too late. $BTC $ETH $XAU #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

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