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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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如果给你48亿美元,让你买比特币——你会现在进场,还是再等等? 这不是假设。这是Strategy此刻的真实处境。 截至8月16日,Strategy持有840,447枚BTC,总持仓成本633.6亿美元,均价75,385美元。 同时,公司手握48亿美元现金储备。 48亿美金,就放在账上,一动不动。 Strategy已经连续八周没有买入任何比特币了。 上周,公司通过出售346万股MSTR股票募资3.337亿美元。这笔钱怎么花的? 1.491亿补充美元储备 1.322亿回购STRC优先股 5240万支付STRC股息 一分钱都没用来买BTC。 这跟以前“集完资就立刻加仓”的Saylor风格,完全不一样。 市场开始慌了: Strategy的比特币买盘,是不是到头了? 别急。Saylor本人给了我们三条线索——48亿什么时候会动。 线索一:STRC必须先回到100美元。 STRC是Strategy发行的优先股,面值100美元,年化股息率目前约12%。但这东西今年一度从100跌到73-95美元。 Saylor的目标很明确:让STRC回到100美元面值附近。 他在8月17日的投资者问答里说得非常直白: “目前最重要的事是稳定信贷业务,股权的事可以等等。” 翻译成人话:优先股的窟窿先堵上,买币的事往后排。 48亿现金里的一部分,已经被用来回购STRC了。在STRC稳定在99-100美元之前——这笔钱不会用来买币。 线索二:MSTR折价够深,才考虑回购——买币也是同理。 Saylor说,如果MSTR相对净资产价值出现明显折价,公司才可能考虑回购普通股。 同样的逻辑适用于比特币:只有价格“足够便宜”,他才会动手。 问题来了——Saylor觉得什么价格算“足够便宜”? 他没说。但我们可以算:他的平均持仓成本是75,385美元。现在BTC在64,000美元附近。 比成本价低15%。这还不够“便宜”吗? 显然,在Saylor看来——还不够。 线索三:信贷业务优先,借贷放款比直接买币更优先。 Strategy现在正在大力发展“数字信贷”业务。简单说:借钱给别人,赚利息,而不是直接买币。 Saylor的原话:比特币是“数字资本”,STRC是“数字信贷”——一个负责升值,一个负责生息。 这意味着什么? 48亿美元不一定会全部砸向BTC。一部分可能用于放贷、做市、提供流动性——赚稳定的息差,而不是赌BTC的涨跌。 所以,48亿不是在看空——是在等一个更好的价格和更好的窗口。 然后,宏观窗口可能正在打开。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在8月16日明确表示:美联储9月加息的可能性“极低” 。 理由很简单:7月零售销售环比下降0.6%,非农就业意外减少2.3万人,CPI和PPI同步降温。 CME数据显示,市场定价美联储9月按兵不动的概率已经升至65%-69% 。 虽然年底前加息概率仍超90%——但9月这个节点,大概率不会有动作。 对风险资产来说,利率不变 = 水龙头没拧紧。 BTC刚刚反弹到64,360美元。如果美联储真的按兵不动甚至转向宽松——48亿美元可能就是那个“点火器” 。 窗口正在接近。只是没人知道具体是哪一天。 Strategy不是不买了——它是在用48亿美金等你割肉。 Saylor在等STRC回到100。在等MSTR折价够深。在等美联储的信号更明确。 他在等一个比现在更低的价格。 $BTC $MSTR $STRC #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Saylor's "Defection": What Does It Mean When the Biggest Bull Starts Hoarding Dollars? For the past five years, Michael Saylor has had only one thing on his mind—buying Bitcoin, buying Bitcoin, and buying Bitcoin. Posting his holdings chart every Monday has become a fixed ritual in the crypto community. As punctual as a clock. But in the past few Mondays, the clock didn’t ring. From August 10 to 16, Strategy neither bought nor sold any Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 coins, with a total cost basis of about $63.36 billion and an average price of about $75,385. This is not a one-week fluke. This marks the eighth consecutive week without increasing holdings. During the same period, Strategy sold 3.4589 million shares of MSTR common stock through an ATM program, raising net proceeds of about $333.7 million. Of that, $149.1 million replenished dollar reserves, $132.2 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred stock, and $52.4 million paid STRC dividends. In the past five weeks, Strategy has cumulatively sold about $2.1 billion in common stock, repurchased about $347 million in preferred stock, and also sold $213.3 million worth of Bitcoin. As of August 16, the company’s dollar reserve balance stands at $4.8 billion. You read that right—the biggest bull is hoarding cash. How should we understand this? On three levels. First, the tactical level: repairing the balance sheet. Saylor himself said: stock buybacks are not a priority for now; the current focus is on STRC preferred stock, cash reserves, and credit business. What is he doing? Plugging holes. STRC preferred stock has dropped to $75 (face value $100), and the company needs cash to stabilize it. The $4.8 billion cash reserve is enough to cover dividends and debt obligations for the next two and a half years. This is not bearish on BTC; it’s putting on a life jacket. Second, the strategic level: waiting for a better opportunity. Saylor said if MSTR trades at a "very deep discount" to net asset value, he might consider buybacks. In plain language: I’m waiting for a lower price. MSTR has dropped about 38% this year. Bitcoin holdings are underwater by about $10 billion. The current market environment is not the time to go all in. He’s hoarding this $4.8 billion not because he doesn’t want to buy—it’s because he’s waiting for a better price to buy. Third, the signaling level: even the most steadfast bulls are actively managing their positions. This is the most painful part. For the past five years, Saylor’s narrative was "never sell," "always bullish." In May 2026, he sold Bitcoin for the first time—32 coins—to pay dividends. Now? Eight consecutive weeks without buying, instead selling stock to hoard cash. The market is undergoing a qualitative change—from "faith-driven" to "cash flow-driven." A bit more background. The probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in September has surged to 65%-66.9%. July retail sales declined, and nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000. The high-interest environment continues. The cost of borrowing to buy coins is getting higher. Strategy has rigid annual expenses of $1.76 billion just for preferred stock dividends and interest. Without hoarding cash, how will they pay? The narrative used to be "buy, buy, buy," now it’s "survive." So here’s the question— Is Strategy preserving flexibility for the next bull market, or is its role as a "corporate BTC buyer" permanently weakening? This question is ten thousand times more important than BTC’s short-term price moves. In the past two years, Strategy has been the most stable buyer in the market—throwing in hundreds of millions weekly, providing liquidity and a base for the entire market. Now this "buying machine" has shut down. Who will be the "perpetual bull"? No one. Saylor himself made it clear—he’s waiting too. One last thing. When the biggest bull starts hoarding dollars and waiting for a lower price— Do you still dare to go all in blindly? $BTC $ETH $OKB #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票,提高美元储备

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