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The foundation just finished pouring concrete, the rebar hasn't even been tied yet, and the construction team already dares to hang the renderings at the auction house. Anthropic's S-1 blueprint is spread out on the table; the confidential draft submitted on June 1st didn't even include the full load-bearing wall calculations, yet the market is already shouting a sky-high valuation of $750 billion — that's like drawing a Burj Khalifa on the plans while the geological survey shows the ground is all quicksand layers.
The Q2 revenue statement shows $1.15 billion in receipts, and by the end of July, the annualized revenue surprisingly surged to $65 billion. This figure is called "progress in appearance" in the construction industry. The client sees the grand scene reflected in the glass curtain wall, but the experts will open the construction logs to check the concealed works records — a net loss of $4.2 billion over more than half a year, which means every quarter liquid concrete is poured into the foundation pit, but it never fills the giant power-hungry server pump truck.
Computing power is the foundation pile of this building. Every round of large model training is like driving a new pile into a bottomless rock layer. The astronomical numbers on the cost list are crazier than the cost of dampers in supertall buildings. When enterprise clients treat data center cabinets like luxury apartments and scramble to buy them, the annual rental income of over $6 billion does look impressive, but as soon as the market price of computing resources fluctuates by one or two percentage points like rebar prices, the entire cash flow model has to be redone. Structural engineers all understand that the final height of a building is determined by its foundation, not by the sales office's scale model.
That financing amount, which may surpass SpaceX's record, is like the general contractor getting an extreme risk contract with a fixed total price. The $9.5 billion green shoe mechanism is just an extra safety rope on the scaffolding. The real suspense lies in the fact that the building hasn't topped out yet, the floor slabs have already developed thermal shrinkage cracks, and the design institute has sent a revision notice: after $4.2 billion in sunk costs, there is an even heavier pile foundation supplement list hanging over it.
The most tragic failures in architectural history are never about ugly designs, but discovering on the day of completion that the elevator can never reach the top floor. Claude's code stack is still being built layer by layer upwards, but the data center's foundation costs and the software layer's variable loads are meshing more and more brittlely; even a slight lateral wind pressure will make the entire floor slab emit muffled sounds before the rebar yields. The ultimate load-bearing capacity verification of the load-bearing walls hasn't been finally signed off, yet the market has already pushed the service load to about 80% of the yield strength.
If the concrete doesn't reach the design strength within seven days, no one is allowed to remove the formwork. This is an iron rule on the construction site. But what concerns me more is another drawing left on the chief engineer's desk — the report adjusting the operating profit back to positive, dated exactly the day the Anthropic firewall started leaking. The building is growing, but the soil beneath is being hollowed out by its own underground garage. Architectural history will remember this kind of structure; it has a special name: thin-shell cantilever, beautiful but astonishingly fragile. #anthropiciponears1. Storage chips have already surged significantly, and the stock price has priced in the good story of AI storage in advance. Now the price fully reflects optimistic expectations, so even slightly disappointing performance can easily lead to a sell-off.
2. Industry inventory is gradually replenishing, supply will increase later, and the momentum of price hikes for memory and flash is hard to sustain. The logic for price increases is weakening, compressing the space for profit growth.
3. The market's imagination for AI storage is overly optimistic. A large part of Micron's rise is supported by the HBM story, but its actual HBM capacity and shipment proportion are not as exaggerated as the market claims. Once the financial report reveals the truth, valuation is easily hit.
4. Once the US tech stocks pull back overall, hardware stocks that have surged a lot like this will face heavy selling pressure.
5. Another point is that with competition heating up and other companies releasing capacity, Micron's gross margin will be squeezed.
Summary: The stock price is driven by very optimistic future expectations, but the actual business cannot keep up with the stock's ambitions. Once expectations are not met, there is room for the price to fall. TREASURY LIQUIDITY IS THE HIDDEN CATALYST 💧
The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-dated bond buybacks has become a major driver of the crypto rally.
The move has shifted liquidity expectations, weakened the dollar and improved risk appetite.
$BTC is benefiting from the same macro environment pushing investors toward scarce assets.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Spot ETFs are rewriting the underlying logic of this rebound
Last week, US spot $BTC and $ETH ETFs collectively attracted about $2.6 billion, both setting new single-week records for 2026. This data deserves close attention because it reveals a deeper change beyond "funds returning"—the "fuel component" of this rebound is shifting.
In past market cycles, price rallies were mainly driven by leverage: contract longs increasing positions, shorts being liquidated, and prices surging rapidly due to a short squeeze effect. Last week, BTC rose from $62,000 to $79,500, with about $4.5 billion in short liquidations contributing. But this time, the simultaneous large-scale inflow of ETF funds means that beyond leverage, a "heavier" type of capital is entering—coming through regulated, compliant instruments, backed by institutional allocation decisions rather than traders' position games.
The behavior pattern of the funds also confirms this. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed about $1.3 billion in one week, with $503 million flowing in on Thursday alone; weekly trading volume for BTC and ETH ETFs surged from $8.8 billion to $29 billion. This is not retail-style probing but a characteristic of top-tier institutions building concentrated positions—the funds are not scattered like pepper but precisely flowing to the most liquid leading products.
Of course, no need to jump to conclusions. Since 2026, BTC ETFs have still seen a net outflow of about $2.9 billion, and ETH ETFs a net outflow of about $192 million. Last week's surge only reduced the annual deficit from $5.7 billion to $3.1 billion; the capital pool is still repairing and far from a full return.
The real watershed is this week: whether the inflows can continue. If yes, it indicates institutions are establishing sustained positions, pullbacks will be supported by buying, and the market has found a "bottom"; if not, last week's surge might just be a pulse reaction triggered by the expansion of the Fed's Treasury repo policy, coming fast and going fast.
Leverage pushes prices up, spot ETFs define the trend. Last week's data is tipping the scales toward the latter.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC experiences volatility after a surge, with ETF funds continuing to flow in
I believe this round of BTC rebound has shown preliminary characteristics of shifting from "short covering" to "spot-driven," but whether the trend can continue depends crucially on whether ETF funds can sustain absorbing selling pressure at high levels.
The basis for this judgment comes from last week's combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs, the strongest single-week inflow since October last year, with BTC ETFs contributing $1.9 billion and ETH ETFs contributing $697 million. This scale indicates institutional funds are actively building positions rather than passively closing them.
In detail, BTC price reached a high of $78,800 within 24 hours before retreating to around $77,000 to fluctuate, indicating profit-taking pressure at high levels. However, the price did not experience panic selling; instead, support formed at $77,000, which aligns closely with the timing of continuous ETF fund inflows. Regarding positions, the current market leverage ratio has not returned to extreme levels, indicating that the upward momentum mainly comes from spot buying rather than margin financing.
Don't just focus on price changes; pay attention to changes in the capital structure. When ETFs begin to sustain net inflows, it means the bullish logic upgrades from sentiment recovery to allocation demand, which is an important signal for a trending market. But be cautious: once inflows slow down, profit-taking accumulated from the earlier rapid rise may concentrate and trigger severe volatility. ETF funds are the stabilizing anchor of the current market; their sustainability is more important than the price itself.
@OKX星球 Watched the pre-market all night, $SOXL's drop scared a lot of people, but I actually find this position a bit interesting.
📰 News: Barron's is again highlighting SOXL's high volatility and risk attributes, Burry also showed bearish semiconductor ETF options, short-term sentiment is quite suppressed, but this concentrated bearishness seems more like an accelerated emotional purge.
🔧 Technicals: The daily technicals are indeed weak, RSI14 has dropped to 37.9, MACD death cross with expanding green bars, price has fallen below MA7/MA25 with a bearish moving average alignment, but it's not far from the Bollinger lower band at 110.64, conditions for an oversold rebound are accumulating.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens only fell 0.51% pre-market, no systemic sell-off in the pre-market session, the larger drop in triple-leveraged products is more about their own emotional release, external environment remains relatively stable.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish, the core logic is that short-term sentiment and indicators are at low levels, SOXL's rebound potential remains, as long as the semiconductor sector doesn't continue to amplify negative news, recovery will be easier to achieve.
📊 Token 114.48 (-4.26%) | US stock pre-market
#USStocks
#SemiconductorSector
#SOXLOutlook Looking beyond the concept to the essence: Can ACO's Tokenomics withstand the test of the market? 📉📈
No matter how beautifully the story is told, if the token model is unreasonable, it will end in chaos. The token distribution in ACO's whitepaper is quite restrained:
💡 1 billion fixed total supply, absolutely no unlimited inflation
No infinite money printing inflation poison pill, fundamentally limiting the total supply.
💎 55% reserved entirely for the whole network's ecological mining
550 million tokens are linearly produced through node construction, social interaction, and on-chain activity, with no concentrated sell pressure from large institutions or private placements.
🔥 All-scenario Gas burn "black hole"
DEX trading, instant swaps, decentralized plaza promotion, live streaming rewards—whenever someone uses the ecosystem, the generated Gas fees are proportionally sent directly into the black hole for burning.
Production has an upper limit, consumption increases with ecosystem activity. This deflation driven by real demand is the true value foundation.
#Tokenomics #ACO #CryptoEconomy #TokenBurn #DeFi #US-Iran sanctions escalate, energy inflation risk rises
$CL $BZ
The escalation of the US-Iran situation triggers concerns about supply disruptions, injecting geopolitical risk premiums into oil prices again. The market is more focused on how rising oil prices transmit to inflation and macro liquidity.
🪁 Macro transmission path
Oil price rise → increased transportation and production costs → inflation pressure rises → changes in Fed rate cut expectations → risk assets repriced
▶️ Oil price rise
Strait of Hormuz transport risks and a new round of sanctions push up crude costs
▶️ Inflation recurrence
Increased production and transportation costs raise CPI upside risks
▶️ Slower rate cuts
Fed remains hawkish, market reassesses pace of rate cuts
▶️ Asset pressure
US Treasury yields and dollar strengthen, liquidity tightening suppresses risk assets
🪁 Impact on BTC and key levels
▶️ Short-term nature
BTC is still highly tied to macro liquidity rather than pure safe haven; rising inflation expectations will exert short-term price pressure
▶️ Key anchors $90 - $100
If oil prices only spike then fall back, market will return to rate cut logic
If it stays firmly above $90 or even approaches $100, inflation trades will fully revive
🪁 Response strategy
Geopolitical news tends to cause short-term high volatility; do not blindly adjust positions based on single news. Focus on oil price sustainability, US Treasury yields, and Fed statements; follow capital flows rather than sentiment changes
Not investment advice, DYOR💵 Bitcoin tops $68K as Treasury doubles bond buybacks
Bitcoin surged ~6% to $68,982 after the U.S. Treasury doubled long-dated debt buybacks, raising the cap from $2B to at least $4B on 10-to-30-year securities.
The move eased long-term yield pressure and sparked a risk-on rally. Ether jumped 9%, while crypto market cap rose 5.1%.
Shorts got hit hard: $1.7B in liquidations, with shorts making up 91%.
Macro-driven moves are back. When Treasury moves the yield curve, risk assets listen.✅ Four core reasons for the rise:
1. Improved macro liquidity expectations: U.S. Treasury operations suppress yields, the market bets on rate cuts, the dollar weakens, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Warmer U.S. regulatory outlook: The White House meets with the crypto industry, the market expects friendly legislation, and sentiment significantly recovers.
3. Short squeeze amplifies gains: Many shorts previously, once the price breaks through, shorts collectively liquidate and are forced to buy, violently pushing the market higher, driven by leverage.
4. ETF capital inflow support: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs shift from outflows to inflows, institutional funds enter to support the price.
⚠️ Risk points:
• This is a rebound, not confirmation of a new bull market; the short squeeze causes sharp rises but also quick pullbacks.
• Biggest variables: U.S. inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and whether regulatory legislation can truly be implemented.
• Short-term is already overbought, a significant correction could happen anytime.
In short: Macro + regulatory expectations ignite the market, short squeeze amplifies gains, ETF funds catch the rally; but most positives are expectations, not fully realized, so volatility risk is huge.The hardest foundation of Bitcoin's four-year cycle has never been mysticism, but code.
Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves, with an average of one block every 10 minutes, which is roughly 4 years.
In Bitcoin's early days, the new supply was large; halving means miners suddenly sell fewer BTC to the market each day.
As long as demand doesn't drop, when supply contracts, prices naturally tend to rise.
So the pattern has always repeated:
Halving → Price increase → Frenzy → Bubble → Crash → Next cycle.
But now there is a very obvious change.
Bitcoin has been running for 16 years, and most BTC has already been mined. The marginal impact of reduced new supply from halving on the entire market is diminishing.
What really matters now may no longer be how much less BTC miners mine daily, but whether ETFs, institutions, publicly listed companies, and even national funds continue to buy.
The future rhythm of BTC may increasingly depend on:
global liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar trend, and institutional capital flows.
Therefore, I neither believe the "four-year cycle will replicate exactly as before," nor that "this time is completely different."
I lean toward a third answer:
The cycle still exists, but it is morphing.
The peak may come earlier, and the bear market may shorten.
There might even be several sudden 40% or 50% crashes in between, washing out everyone, causing the market to shout "the bull market is over," but after the shakeout, the price continues to rise.Jin10 has new news again! Total's CEO gives a very conflicting judgment: crude oil fundamentals look bearish, but diesel refined products are actually very strong.
Crude oil raw material supply is not really tight, relying entirely on temporary stimulation from geopolitical news; but diesel inventories are relatively low, and refining profits are booming.
This explains why Iran made tough statements, crude oil surged but quickly fell back. Geopolitics is just short-term sentiment, very difficult to reverse the big crude oil fundamentals.
Short-term you can speculate on a rebound, if there is profit you must run, don't blindly bet on a big bull market. $CL
$BZ (Brent): global seaborne crude oil, Middle East wars, Strait incidents, BZ volatility is often more intense #Brent crude oil down 1.87% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #SamsungPayoutUpTo80B
Samsung may return up to $80B to shareholders while the AI memory race still demands enormous investment. That's the real test of this cycle: can chipmakers reward investors without starving the fabs that create future growth? If HBM cash flow funds both, valuations could get a powerful reset. If payouts compete with capex, today's generosity could become tomorrow's constraint. AI profits are here. Now capital allocation matters just as much.Xiaomi released three self-developed Xuanjie chips, enhancing $XIAOMI's preference for hard technology, but initially only covering niche categories. The capital position has not rushed to fully reprice, with the core conflict lying in the trade-off between measured energy efficiency and mass production bottlenecks.
The three self-developed Xuanjie chips cover mobile SoCs and intelligent driving scenarios. The event risk quickly triggered the market's release of risk preference for hard technology. Since the chips are currently only installed in niche categories, the main capital positions in the market remain cautiously observant, with no indiscriminate chasing of prices.
Among the driving factors, risk preference transmission precedes fundamental realization. Measured data on energy efficiency and ecological synergy ranks first, followed by automobile delivery volume and Hong Kong stock liquidity base. The premium expectation brought by the chip release is constrained by shipment bottlenecks, with capital waiting for the effect of mass production landing.
The upside scenario trigger condition is that the new chip's measured energy efficiency in mobile and intelligent driving scenarios exceeds expectations, and shipment scale is not hindered by the supply chain. If a steady increase in shipment penetration in niche categories is observed, the technology premium will spread to the overall valuation center; the failure signal is ecological synergy showing compatibility faults or delayed capacity delivery.
The downside scenario trigger condition is that mass production measurements encounter compatibility obstacles or capacity limitations fail to meet initial demand. Once shipment bottlenecks are established, risk preference will quickly cool down, and market focus will return to automobile sales and changes in Hong Kong stock liquidity; the failure signal is automobile delivery volume significantly exceeding expectations, forcibly supporting valuation.
When capital positions shift from observation to heavy layout in main product lines, the current cautious bullish neutral judgment becomes invalid. If the market abandons verification of chip energy efficiency and turns to pure liquidity speculation, it indicates that the technology repricing logic has been interrupted by short-term sentiment.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the energy efficiency performance of the Xuanjie chip in terminal measurements and the delivery progress of the first batch of capacity.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战$BTC is consolidating around 77600, seemingly calm but actually with underlying turbulence📊
Tonight at 2 PM Eastern Time (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25), US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold an emergency press conference to initiate an "economic D-day" against Iran — which translates to: extreme financial pressure is coming.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices will inevitably surge, inflation expectations will rise, the Fed's rate cut pace will be disrupted, the dollar will strengthen, and liquidity will tighten. All of these are direct emotional blows to risk assets.
BTC has risen from 60,000, with RSI once reaching 93, technically overbought to the extreme. The market itself is due for a decent pullback to digest gains. The news is just the fuse, not the fundamental cause.
The biggest taboo tonight is holding heavy overnight positions stubbornly. Don’t go against sudden news, and don’t stare at the K-line at 2 AM trying to outpace the whales — they have data sources and capital advantages. Retail investors can only control position size.
Altcoins and junk coins are absolutely off-limits tonight. At this stage, the main players love to use news to spike and shake out weak hands, harvesting trend followers. I lost a lot on this in my early years, and later realized that short-term profits in altcoins come with unlimited risk.
Currently, I only hold $BTC in spot, with some platform tokens like $OKB as base positions, and am not looking at others for now.
The above is purely my personal review and thoughts, not any trading advice. Everyone should judge for themselves and bear their own profits and losses.🧊
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 There is intense debate in the current market:
1. "Flywheel Restart" narrative: Optimists believe that the U.S. Treasury's liquidity release, improved regulatory clarity (with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act), and massive inflows of ETF funds have reignited the "Bitcoin flywheel effect"—price increases attract capital, which in turn drives further price rises. Standard Chartered analysts hinted that their year-end target price of $100,000 might be "too conservative."
2. "Short Squeeze Rebound" narrative: The cautious camp points out that the core driver of this rally is shorts being forced to cover, rather than strong new long positions entering. Structural buying (such as Strategy's continuous purchases) has already disappeared, and on-chain data shows that 30-day spot demand has improved but has not fully turned positive. Last week's sharp rise "recovered some lost ground," but the price is still about 43% below the historical high.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 This Wednesday is the quality inspection window. PCE, the second GDP valuation, and durable goods orders were released almost simultaneously, and after the close, there was also Nvidia's earnings report. Overvalued AI assets will be calibrated first, and the macro backdrop of storage demand will also be repriced. In the past week, the S&P and Nasdaq ended their consecutive gains, while semiconductors fell even deeper. On one side is rising US Treasury yields, on the other is increasingly expensive AI assets—these two issues have met head-on this week. Monday is relatively mild. After last week's adjustment, if long-term bond yields remain stable for now, it wouldn't be surprising if tech stocks experience a technical recovery; the direction still depends on Wednesday. Three sets of data correspond to three questions. PCE looks at inflation, GDP on whether the US economy has clearly slowed down, and durable goods orders on whether companies are willing to continue investing. The most comfortable combination remains a resilient economy and continued cooling inflation. This way, the market neither fears a recession nor worries about further tightening, and risk appetite is willing to re-invest in high-valuation positions. If companies maintain capital expenditures, data from AI training and inference still needs to be stored and accessed, so the demand narrative for decentralized storage can be supported at the macro level, which is the main driving force behind continued optimism about $FIL. The post-market $NVDA was more like a stress test. The Q2 revenue guidance given last quarter had already reached around $91 billion. At this scale, the marginal significance of promising revenue growth has diminished, and the market will focus more on whether AI investment can continue. $META, $AMZN, $MRVL are all on this pricing chain. Events will proceed smoothly$ETH whale position voting.
The "819 ETH insider whale" who precisely positioned before the surge on August 19 holds $48.85 million in positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $10 million, and has not reduced or exited positions to date. These people have an information advantage over retail investors; their holding indicates the story is not over.
On the other hand, more intriguing is the anonymous whale jasonleo's ETH short position of 4,756 ETH at an entry price of $2,361, currently showing an unrealized loss of $160,000, and has only partially closed. Whales on both sides are holding firm, with ETH open interest contracts again breaking through $2 billion.
Glassnode data shows the number of whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH has risen from a low of 4,750 in June to nearly 4,850, with a continuous positive net change over 30 days, indicating sustained accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
ETH spot ETFs have also reversed eight consecutive weeks of outflows, with three consecutive weeks of net inflows since July. However, the daily average inflow is only tens of millions of dollars, far below the $600 million to $1 billion peak in August 2025. Institutions are returning but are far from going all in.
$2,000 is a psychological barrier, $2,438 is the 0.618 Fibonacci target. ETH is currently tugging around $2,400, with supply resistance near $2,438 on the upside and 0.786 retracement support at $1,754 on the downside.
Whales clustering on the bullish side does not mean a one-sided rise; there are liquidation zones on both sides, so avoid blindly chasing highs. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Just this past week, US stocks have finally stepped on the brakes after their major rebound. The S&P and Nasdaq ended their winning streaks, with semiconductors falling even more. The underlying issues are actually quite clear: on one side are rising US Treasury yields, on the other are increasingly expensive AI assets. And this week, these two issues will confront each other head-on. Monday is relatively mild, so I didn't rush to decide the direction in the first couple of days. After last week's adjustment, if long-term bond yields remain temporarily stable, it would not be surprising for tech stocks to undergo a technical recovery. The real determination of the quality of this round of market will be determined by Wednesday. Before the market opens on Wednesday, PCE, the second GDP valuation, and durable goods orders will be released almost simultaneously. These three data points correspond exactly to three questions. PCE looks at inflation, GDP on whether the US economy has clearly slowed down, durable goods orders depend on whether companies are willing to continue investing, and the most comfortable combination is still the economy with resilience and continued cooling inflation. This way, the market neither has to worry about a recession nor can it reduce worries about continued Fed tightening. Tech stocks love this kind of environment. But if GDP starts to weaken and PCE heats up again, things get tricky. Because this means the economy is losing momentum, yet interest rates remain difficult to come down. For the current high-valuation Nasdaq, this is even more dangerous than a simple economic downturn. Then, after Wednesday's market close, the big news arrived: Nvidia $NVDA Q2 revenue guidance for the previous quarter had already reached around $91 billion. Given this scale, "very good revenue growth" no longer holds much meaning.Short-term holders' unrealized profits soar to 75%: Bitcoin at 77,000 threshold, beware of concentrated profit-taking pressure
In just 8 days, Bitcoin surged from $63,000 to $77,000, with on-chain microchip structure undergoing intense reversal and competition
Latest on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the profit supply ratio of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) sharply increased from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%. In just over a week, nearly three-quarters of all short-term holders have completely turned from deep underwater to unrealized profit territory. This is followed by accelerated profit-taking, with the net profit and loss indicator of short-term holders flowing to exchanges turning positive from negative, breaking through the warning line of 25,000 BTC and soaring to +28,600 BTC in a single day
This on-chain pulse is a typical short-term watershed signal. When a large amount of unrealized profit chips are densely moved to exchanges, if the market's upward momentum dulls or volume shrinks, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking by short-term bulls, causing high-level shakeouts and deep pullbacks. However, if this indicator gradually falls back near the zero line in the coming days while Bitcoin price remains stable between $75,000 and $77,000, it means these profit-taking positions have been fully absorbed by off-exchange bulls, completing a healthy turnover of chips from low to high levels
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Two major events are approaching simultaneously, and the market is holding its breath: ① Gold soars to a three-month high. On Monday, gold prices surged to their highest level in over three months. The weakening dollar is the direct driver, but the deeper reason is that the market is front-running—traders are betting that Wednesday's PCE data and Friday's speech by Waller will signal a policy shift. Analysts bluntly say that if Waller's wording is "balanced or cautious," gold prices still have room to rise. ② At 2 AM tonight, the U.S. will officially announce its "toughest sanctions" on Iran. Bassett will hold a press conference, previewing this as the "largest financial offensive in history," aiming to cut off every economic lifeline of Iran. Any country or company doing business with Iran will face secondary sanctions—covering oil trade, remittance channels, and ship-to-ship transfers, all within the scope of the crackdown. Iran has long drawn a red line: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz. Interestingly, oil prices fell more than 1% today—the market is choosing to take profits before the sanctions land, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. But analysts warn that if the sanctions truly take effect, the risk of Iran taking more aggressive actions will rise, and volatility in the energy market is far from over. What does this mean for the crypto space? · Sanctions exceed expectations → oil prices surge → inflation stickiness increases → Fed finds it harder to cut rates → bearish for BTC/ETH · Sanctions are all bark and no bite → short-term bearish sentiment is exhausted, possible rebound Gold rising is a signal; BTC not following is a warning. Coupled with Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Waller speech, volatility will definitely increase this week. Before the data is released, hold your hands and don't bet on direction. $BTC at $77,700, are you chasing the highs?
First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, retail FOMO chasing the highs.
In mid-August, it was still hovering around 62k-65k, then in one week it surged directly to 79.5k, a weekly increase of 23-26%, one of the largest single-week gains in recent years. Tens of billions of dollars in short positions across the network were liquidated, retail investors just got cut, and the market took off.
The candlestick tells you: successfully broke through the 67.5k range, stood above the 200-day moving average (71.7k), and formed higher lows on the weekly chart — the mid-term trend has turned bullish, but don’t chase the highs in the short term.
First thing: ETF inflows hit $1.9 billion in one week, this is not volume retail can pull out.
Spot BTC ETF net inflows this week are about $1.9 billion, a 10-month high. BlackRock IBIT contributed the most, institutions are buying with real money.
Ray Dalio has publicly recommended allocating BTC to hedge against U.S. debt risk. Are you still waiting for a pullback? They are buying while you watch, it’s always like this.
Second thing: The U.S. Treasury made a big move, liquidity valves opened.
The U.S. Treasury announced at least doubling the long-term Treasury repo scale to around $4 billion, directly pushing down long-term yields.
Treasury repo = injecting money into the market
Long-term yield decline = risk assets become more valuable
BTC and gold directly benefit
Combined with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act (vote on September 15), creating "policy clarity" expectations for the crypto industry. Regulatory easing + liquidity release, a dual recipe for a bull market.
Third thing: A technical signal that must be watched.
Daily RSI entered overbought zone (78-88), price close to the upper Bollinger Band, 4H shows cooling signals. From 79.5k it fell back to 77k, a typical "sharp rise followed by high-level consolidation."
Don’t panic — this is a healthy pullback digestion, not the end of the trend. The key is whether 76k-76.5k can hold.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETF inflows of $1.9 billion in one week, a 10-month high
U.S. Treasury injecting money, liquidity valves opened
Trump’s policy benefits + Ray Dalio’s buy call
Weekly breakout of the range, mid-term trend turns bullish
On the other side:
Daily RSI overbought at 88, short-term overheating
This week’s PCE + Jackson Hole, hawkish risks may crash the market
If 76k doesn’t hold, retest 73k-74k
Funding rates turn positive, longs crowded
Key levels
Resistance above: 78.5k-79.5k (recent highs) → 80k (psychological level) → 82k-85k → 95k
Support below: 76k-76.5k (pullback level) → 75k (Fibonacci) → 73k-74k (strong demand zone)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 76k-76.5k to lightly go long, stop loss below 75k, first target 79.5k-80k, second 82k-85k.
Swing traders:
Wait for volume to confirm holding above 79.5k-80k before chasing longs on the right side, stop loss at 78k, target around 95k. If it breaks 75k with volume, wait and watch for 73k-74k to bottom fish.
Long-term believers:
Place orders at 73k-74k to accumulate, buying dips is profit. Continuous ETF inflows + debt narrative + regulatory clarity, 2027 target 100k+. But remember — this week’s PCE + Jackson Hole volatility is huge, don’t over-leverage.
BTC rose 23% this week, but you might have lost money —
Because you always sell low and buy high.
On the day it breaks 80k, you’ll realize:
It’s not that BTC is weak, it’s that you always die before dawn.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At 77,700, do you dare to add positions?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 August 24 U.S.-Iran Situation Analysis: Focusing on Whether the Latest U.S. Sanctions on Iran Are "TACO"
As mentioned earlier, many major events occurred over the weekend regarding the U.S.-Iran situation. Iran is attempting to restructure the Strait management model with Oman—introducing a permit system plus a service fee system.
Facing potential U.S. economic sanctions, Pakistan’s top mediator Munir has already traveled to Tehran. According to media reports, Munir spoke with Trump a few days before departure. Munir’s three tasks this time are very important.
Iran has made two preparations in response to U.S. sanctions: one is to soften the Strait’s fee standards, maintaining a positive attitude toward the Strait and U.S.-Iran negotiations; the other is to warn that U.S. economic sanctions may increase the risk of conflict between both sides.
Today, China again issued a counter-warning against U.S. economic sanctions, preemptively informing the U.S. to protect Chinese shipowners and vessels’ interests in the Middle East, which can be seen as exerting some pressure on the U.S. sanctions plan.
Next, observe two developments:
1. On Sunday, Iranian officials reported that Iran was invited to the "Mecca Collective Defense Agreement." So far, no official confirmation from the other three countries has been seen. Once confirmed or if the agreement advances, I consider it an important positive turning point.
2. Whether the U.S. sanctions on Iran will soften and become "TACO" tonight. Nominally, Pakistan’s Munir’s visit to Iran is a political stance. Additionally, China’s counter-warning means the U.S. has clearly received diplomatic and political pressure. We will see if sanctions continue or soften. If softened, I also regard it as a major positive.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 SK Hynix is currently a typical case of a surge followed by a pullback; the sentiment hasn't kept up to stabilize it. The entire storage sector is like this, but SK Hynix has buyback support, so its drop isn't as severe.
Before the market opened, US tech stocks fell again. The storage sector hasn't yet shaken off the correction sentiment. Currently, my view on SK Hynix $SKHYNIX is the same as on SanDisk; SK Hynix's current support level is 1180.
Today's pullback is not yet a buying opportunity. Right now, SK Hynix and Micron are in a very awkward position. If they expand production, profits can't be maintained, and storage prices will fall, leaving little room for speculation. If they don't expand, market share will be aggressively chased by Changxin and Yangtze Memory. Apple is already seeking chips from Changxin.
I believe whether to expand production or not, and market share, are not the key issues. The important question is whether market demand can still reach the levels seen in the first half of the year. If there isn't much demand, Changxin's output is extreme. Without explosive demand like in the first half, these orders will be quickly absorbed. To exaggerate, I estimate that even running at full capacity, global demand won't be enough for its production.
Additionally, with ongoing changes in geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainty whether Nvidia's earnings report will meet market expectations, its performance will determine the direction of AI and the market's valuation of the AI sector.
Considering that Nvidia's earnings reports have triggered declines in the past, I believe that whether it's a surge or a drop, funds are already retreating. So, we need to see how much impact this will have on storage. For now, set the take-profit level at 1180. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Xiaomi has launched three self-developed Xuanjie chips, covering mobile phone SoCs and intelligent driving scenarios. The event quickly boosted $XIAOMI's hard technology risk appetite and valuation expectations, but the new chips are initially limited to niche categories, and capital positions have not rushed to give a comprehensive repricing. If subsequent real-world tests of energy efficiency and ecosystem synergy exceed expectations, the technology premium will spread toward the valuation center; otherwise, shipment bottlenecks will suppress enthusiasm for price surges. If compatibility obstacles appear during mass production testing of new devices, market focus will shift back to car sales and Hong Kong stock liquidity itself.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径$BTC
Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million coins to 980,000 coins;
while the bar next to it at $62,000 shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we described in the scenario we projected on August 21 (see quote): once the chips start to loosen, the price will either stabilize or pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
And now it seems that the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, we see that when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
there was a strong wave of profit-taking, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital stepping in to absorb the supply here. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Short term (next 1-2 quarters): Nvidia is very likely to continue delivering impressive numbers. The ramp-up of Blackwell, progress on Rubin, and the rollout of Agentic AI applications are all supporting demand. The earnings report itself is likely not an issue; the key lies in the guidance and management’s commentary on ROI, customer utilization, power constraints, and competitive landscape.
Mid term (1-2 years): The real watershed moment. If enterprise AI applications (especially those that directly generate revenue or significantly reduce costs) accelerate deployment, and hyperscale providers maintain high capex levels, the cycle can continue. Conversely, if clear signs of “affordable but not profitable” emerge, the market will reprice growth expectations for the entire AI industry chain.
Current evidence is mostly positive but not yet fully conclusive:
• Cloud providers’ AI-related revenues are accelerating.
• Inference demand is growing alongside model capability improvements.
• Jensen Huang repeatedly emphasizes “compute equals revenue,” indicating they themselves are using this narrative to convince the market.
However, it must be acknowledged that the long-term economics of many current AI infrastructure investments still heavily depend on continuous leaps in model capabilities, reductions in token costs, and the penetration speed of real commercial scenarios. None of these are set in stone yet. $SOL fell back to 93, down 2.05% in 24 hours, sliding down from the high of 95.46. This wave of a 22% rebound over a month has reached a critical point.
Currently at 93.39, the data shows:
24h range is 93.24-95.46, volume 1.22B, significantly lower than the rebound start day, indicating profit-taking turnover rather than panic selling. RSI has dropped from last week's overbought zone to around 55, which is healthy. But on the daily chart, the previous dense trading zone at 95-96 has resisted for three consecutive days, and the selling pressure from trapped holders above is a real wall of gold and silver.
Fundamentals are not bad: daily active addresses remain steady above 5 million, DEX trading volume ranks first across the chain, and pump.fun, although not as crazy as last year, is still running. The problem lies in leverage; open futures contracts have increased this week. If BTC pulls back 3%, SOL's historical pattern is to drop 6-8%.
From a technical perspective, 90 is the 20-day EMA support, and 82-84 is a double support zone of the 50-day EMA and a dense chip area. As long as 90 holds, the structure of this rebound remains intact.
Strategy: Do not chase at the current price. Place half the order at 88-90, the other half at 82-84, with a stop loss below 78. SOL is a good asset, but good assets should not be chased at highs. $MU
Personal position: Long Micron around 940 with full 1x position, stop loss near 915, take profit between 953-997.
Position logic: Korean stocks, Samsung shareholder returns fell short of expectations, causing a short-term sector sell-off; A-share and Korean storage stocks face synchronized sentiment pressure, representing an emotional oversell. AI server HBM demand is rigid, storage prices maintain an upward trend, and long-term contracts lock in performance. Short-term pullback offers a window for positioning, betting on sector sentiment recovery. Therefore, entering long to capture short-term rebound.This bounce looks more like a selective risk bid than a broad regime change. ETH’s 2.03% gain and test of $2,500 show stronger near-term momentum than BTC, but BTC ETF inflows still give the market its clearest structural support.
I would treat the move as constructive, not decisive. Treasury buyback signals may help liquidity at the margin, while escalating Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure and limit how far risk assets can reprice. My bias stays moderately positive, with ETH leading tactically and BTC remaining the stronger macro anchor.
Just my read, not advice.On August 23, the treasury of Term Finance, an Ethereum fixed-rate lending protocol, was drained of approximately $8.5 million. It was not a contract vulnerability or private key leak, but a governance attack.
The attacker first used Tornado Cash to obtain 2 ETH as startup capital, then bought a majority of the governance tokens at a low price where liquidity was thin, submitted and approved a malicious proposal, took over the treasury, and withdrew 2,843 ETH and 1.68 million USDC. Before the attack, the treasury product had about $12.45 million locked, resulting in a loss of about 68%.
Term's treasury proposals originally had a 7-day delay, and liquidity providers could veto, but these defenses did not stop the attack. The project team shut down all Meta Vaults overnight and revoked governance roles; the underlying lending protocol was unaffected.
The essence of a governance attack is the cost of voting power: when the circulating supply of governance tokens is small and the price is cheap, the cost to acquire a majority is far less than directly attacking the contract. Once voting rights can directly move funds, governance becomes the largest attack surface.
For users, the security of funds locked in governance-based treasuries depends on how much it costs to acquire a majority vote, not just whether the contract has vulnerabilities. Delays, vetoes, and multisigs for critical fund actions should be set separately.
After Term triggered a 918 ETH liquidation in April 2025 due to an oracle error, it promised to strengthen third-party verification and governance transparency. Beyond promises, whether protections truly work is the question before the next attack arrives.#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
What did Kashkari say? On August 23, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the 10-year US Treasury yield nearing 4.7% is "not historically abnormal," as it was higher in the 1990s. The market is functioning normally with ample liquidity, and the Fed should continue focusing on the federal funds rate. He did not commit to a rate hike in September and frankly expressed "no confidence" that inflation will return to 2% in the short term. He also acknowledged that if the Iran conflict continues, energy prices will further push inflation higher.
What did the Treasury do? On August 19, the Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its 10-30 year Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective September 9. Bassett indicated it might expand further.
What is the effect? The 30-year yield briefly fell but then quickly rebounded to 5.276%. Wells Fargo bluntly called this a "short-term relief." Nomura Securities strategists pointed out that the Treasury buyback is a debt management operation essentially swapping new debt for old debt. The market likens this move to Japan's efforts to suppress government bond yields, raising concerns that the dollar might fall into a "devaluation spiral."
Kashkari said the market is "functioning normally," but the simultaneous occurrence of $40 trillion in debt ceiling pressure, a 5.3% 30-year yield, and the Treasury being forced to step in to buy bonds — these three things themselves indicate "abnormality." A $4 billion buyback at once is a drop in the bucket compared to $40 trillion in debt. A fundamental fix? Far from it. $HYPE is still the most sentiment-driven stock, hitting a record high of 82.58 on 8/22, now hovering around 80. I know some people didn’t dare to buy below 70 and are now itching to get in, so I’m writing this to hold them back.
Why I both love and fear it, three points:
1. The fundamentals are really in use. 30-day perpetual volume broke $200 billion, TVL is 1.48 billion (stablecoins over 600 million), 48M HYPE has been burned, and Trump even hinted at opening the US market access. AQAv2 upgrade is expected to land on 8/26, with fee burns to increase, this is solid protocol revenue returning.
2. But RSI is 82, overbought; after hitting 82.58 on 8/22, it pulled back, with a 24-hour range of 76.97-81.13, and clear selling pressure above 82. Bitget’s key support is 70.60, previous high resistance at 82.43, these two lines form the short-term box.
3. Like OKB, it’s a "compliance sentiment stock," Trump’s words can pump or dump it. The current market is a strong consolidation at a high level, not a main upward wave continuation, chasing costs isn’t worthwhile.
HYPE is most driven by sentiment, keep your position light, and set strict stop losses. $BTC I did miss out on part of this rally, but I have no intention of chasing the remaining funds all in at the high to make up for it.
Currently, I have converted only about 40% of my originally planned investment into BTC spot. Moving forward to accumulate chips, I mainly use two methods:
The first is selling put options.
I choose positions I was already willing to buy. If the price doesn't drop, I collect the premium; if the price drops, I take on the corresponding long exposure.
The second is a coin-margined grid strategy without market price entry.
When setting up the grid, I don't open positions directly at market price but place orders stepwise below the current price. If the market doesn't pull back, I accept earning a bit less; if the market does pull back, the grid will gradually build positions as planned. If it later enters consolidation, the grid can also accumulate some coin-margined returns.
I believe the current risk is still manageable because only about 40% of my chips have been converted into the target, and there is still some capital that can be invested in batches when the price drops to supplement margin and reduce the overall holding cost. Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Approaching: Why Top Traders Never Bet Early on Hawkish or Dovish Speeches?
Waller makes his debut at Jackson Hole as the Fed's core helmsman, coinciding with the release of revised PCE and GDP figures, putting the entire crypto market and risk assets on edge. The market is holding its breath, waiting to see whether he will signal a hawkish or dovish stance.
Frankly, betting on specific hawkish or dovish keywords has a very low risk-reward ratio in trading. Waller has long been known in traditional academic circles for his cautious stance on liquidity overflow and balance sheet expansion. He tends to reshape rule-based policy boundaries rather than provide mechanical guidance tailored to market expectations.
In the face of such a highly uncertain macro week, the iron rule for seasoned traders is never to take large leverage bets before the boots hit the ground. Betting unilaterally in advance is like handing your account over to impromptu remarks for judgment. The smart move is to proactively reduce leverage before the event, saving your bullets for the momentum breakout on the right side after the speech ends and the market has fully priced in the information.
Facing Jackson Hole, are you now reducing leverage and watching, or setting up early positions? Which macro events truly trigger your position adjustments?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The sudden emergence of Trump Coin is essentially a public takeover of DOGE's core narrative asset.
DOGE's value has never been in its technology, but in the grassroots stance it represents: "ordinary people against the financial establishment." Trump Coin plays exactly the same script: anti-elite, anti-Wall Street, replacing fundamentals with sentiment. The two narrative lines are highly homogeneous, targeting the same group of risk-tolerant speculators and the same pool of speculative capital. When the pool of funds stops growing, the rise of one narrative inevitably comes at the expense of another—this is a classic zero-sum game.
The difference is that $TRUMP upgrades "anti-establishment" from a grassroots slogan to political power itself, which is a dimensionality reduction strike against DOGE. The charm of the grassroots narrative lies in "consensus we create ourselves," while the allure of the political narrative lies in "power personally endorsing it." When speculators vote with their feet, the latter clearly has stronger short-term explosive power. What $DOGE loses is not believers, but the liquidity that comes only for volatility—and this portion of funds is precisely the main source of price elasticity.
But the zero-sum pattern is not the endgame. The ceiling for political coins is tied to political cycles, with hype fading alongside election campaigns and terms; DOGE's grassroots consensus has been tempered through multiple bull and bear cycles, having long settled as a foundational symbol of crypto culture. Narratives can be extracted, but culture is hard to acquire. In the short term, it's a battle for funds; in the long term, it's the difference between a flash in the pan and an evergreen symbol—the winning move in this game is not in the present, but in time.Michael Burry's change in attitude toward Alibaba this time is indeed very interesting. The original inspiration for "The Big Short" has already exited Alibaba and switched to holding JD.com. More importantly, Alibaba recently announced the issuance of 710 million new shares, raising about $10.2 billion. After the funds are mainly invested in AI infrastructure, chips, and models, Burry directly expressed dissatisfaction, even stating that Alibaba's stock price might have to fall significantly more before it regains his interest. What he truly questions is not Alibaba's development of AI, but why they need to do AI through a share issuance. Because issuing new shares means existing shareholders are diluted, and shareholders have to bear the cost first, but whether the AI investment will eventually turn into real revenue, profit, and cash flow still needs time to verify. From Alibaba's perspective, it is also easy to understand. The AI competition has now entered a heavy investment phase; if they don't continue to pour money into computing power, chips, and models, they might fall behind in the future. So the real disagreement between the two sides is actually very simple: Alibaba believes that not investing money might mean losing the future. Burry believes that no matter how good the future is, existing shareholders cannot be made to pay indefinitely. The biggest takeaway for ordinary investors from this matter is that when looking at an AI company, you can't just look at how much money it invests, but more importantly, whether that money can eventually turn into real business returns. If a company you have long favored keeps issuing shares to fund AI growth, would you continue to hold it? #阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ Can 80000 still be reached? Market Analysis (8/24)
This article is for market research, learning, and communication purposes only and does not constitute any trading advice. Short-term volatility has clearly increased; controlling position size is more important than guessing the next candlestick.
Recently, Bitcoin has been very strong, surging from around 64000 to nearly 80000, achieving in a few days what took over a month previously. However, after reaching the high level, the market did not continue to surge aggressively nor did it experience a sharp drop; instead, it oscillated repeatedly around 77000. The current price is about 77500, with the highest in the last 24 hours near 78050 and the lowest near 76600, indicating profit-taking above and support below. This kind of market cannot yet be called a reversal, but after a rapid continuous rise, chasing the rally is no longer as comfortable as in previous days.
The most important reason for this rally is the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases. Previously, long-term bonds were continuously sold off, pushing yields higher, and market funds naturally preferred interest-bearing assets over the high volatility risk of Bitcoin. After the Treasury increased repurchases, liquidity pressure in the bond market eased, yields fell, benefiting both Bitcoin and gold. Coupled with a large number of short positions accumulated earlier, once the price broke through, shorts were forced to cover, turning a normal rebound into a rapid short squeeze.
However, it should be understood that Treasury bond repurchases do not mean the Federal Reserve has resumed large-scale easing; it mainly addresses trading and liquidity issues in the bond market and does not directly solve inflation. The real determinant of interest rate direction is economic data, with the most important this week being the U.S. July PCE released Wednesday. The latest Fed minutes show most members support holding rates steady for now, but three members lean toward a 25 basis point hike, and many believe further tightening is needed if inflation does not continue to decline. The market just rose sharply due to improved liquidity but will soon face the test of inflation data, which is the main reason for the current sideways movement at high levels without a breakout.
If PCE is below expectations, it indicates inflation is continuing to fall, reducing market concerns about rate hikes, and bond yields may decline again. This could turn the rally from a pure short squeeze into a more sustainable rebound, making a renewed push to 80000 by Bitcoin not difficult. Conversely, if PCE is above expectations, the market will reprice rate hikes and high rates, and funds that rushed in due to liquidity improvements may take profits first. Ethereum is currently around 2460, showing short-term strength but also facing resistance at 2485–2500, indicating market risk appetite remains but funds are waiting for new reasons.
Returning to the market, important support for Bitcoin is between 76400–76800. As long as the 4-hour close does not effectively break below this range, the high-level oscillation still belongs to strong consolidation; if it breaks below and fails to recover on a rebound, the short-term structure will weaken significantly, and the next level to watch is whether 75500 can hold. The real resistance above is 78800–79600, which is both the previous high area and near the 80000 round number. Only a volume breakout with a successful retest will truly open new upside space. The current price is right between support and resistance; chasing longs is too close to resistance, and shorting without a breakout signal is not ideal. It seems to fluctuate daily but is not a particularly good trading position.
Finally, I believe there is still a chance to reach 80000, but it cannot be taken as certain now. The short-term trend remains bullish; as long as 76400–76800 is not broken, there is no need to rush to turn bearish; but without breaking 78800–79600, it is also not suitable to keep heavy long positions on every rise. The most important thing now is not to guess whether it will rise or fall tonight but to wait for Wednesday's PCE to provide a new direction: if the data is moderate, the market may continue to push higher; if the data is hot, the high-level oscillation may turn into a deeper correction. Until confirmed, watching more and trading less may be better than struggling back and forth in the range.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Before Nvidia's earnings release on August 26, the chip, cloud, and optical module sectors weakened in pre-market trading, with the core conflict centered on pressure from high valuations and a repricing of capital expenditure returns.
Rising hardware costs combined with fluctuations in long-term bond yields led high-beta asset positions to lock in profits early before event certainty was established. The pre-market linked pullback in chip, optical module, and storage sectors directly reflects the market's proactive contraction of risk appetite.
Among the driving factors, the highest priority is the upward revision potential in next quarter's guidance, followed by the sustainability of cloud giants' data center capital expenditures, and lastly whether the current quarter's results exceed expectations. Historical data shows that even when earnings surpassed expectations in the previous four earnings reports, stock prices still retreated, indicating that historical performance alone cannot absorb the current premium.
Rising hardware costs and long-term bond yields are eroding the net present value expectations of capital expenditures, and discussions around revolving financing models have weakened the willingness to chase prices higher. Once the valuation anchor shifts from unidirectional growth to the investment return cycle, position adjustments evolve from marginal reductions to sector-wide synchronized sell-offs.
The bullish scenario triggers if data center guidance is significantly raised and cloud giants clearly increase future capital expenditure expectations. At this point, short squeeze will trigger a sharp emotional recovery and short covering rally in the AI hardware sector led by $NVDA. The variable to watch is the multiple expansion of after-hours trading volume; a failure signal is a rapid drop below the previous trading day's closing price after a high open.
The bearish scenario triggers if guidance only meets expectations or management expresses concerns about hardware costs and long-term bond yield impacts. In this case, valuation clearance pressure will cause $NVDA to lead the AI chain to break down. The variable to watch is whether the declines in optical module and storage sectors widen; a failure signal is a large order quickly lifting prices after an intraday dip to key support levels.
When macro risk appetite sharply reverses or long-term yields trend downward, the AI hardware sector's logic will refocus on absolute fundamental growth. At that time, valuation multiple pressure will be offset by expectations of looser liquidity.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the specific figures in Nvidia's August 26 data center business guidance for the next quarter and the transmission trend of long-term U.S. Treasury yields after market hours.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%#BTCETFInflowsSurge Bitcoin briefly traded above $78,800 before easing toward $77,000, but the more important development may be the return of institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.9 billion last week, while Ethereum ETFs received another $697 million. The combined $2.6 billion inflow was the strongest weekly total since October 2025. ETF trading volume also more than tripled, suggesting that the rebound is being supported by fresh spot-market participation rather than short liquidations alone.
This creates a healthier foundation than a purely leverage-driven rally, but one strong week does not establish a lasting trend. ETF flows often respond to price momentum and may reverse when volatility rises or investors begin taking profits. The next confirmation would be continued inflows while Bitcoin consolidates instead of only when prices are surging. Traders should also monitor spot volume, stablecoin liquidity and derivatives funding. If ETF demand remains strong without excessive leverage, Bitcoin may build a steadier recovery. If inflows quickly weaken, the rally could become vulnerable to profit-taking.Dear, Moonlight noticed today while watching the market
The AI sector is falling
Before the market opened, chips, cloud, optical modules, and storage all weakened together
Many people think it's just profit-taking after a big rise
But actually, the market might already be trading ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on August 26
In the past four consecutive earnings reports, Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations, but the stock price fell each time after the report
Because what the market wants now is no longer just a Beat
But whether the next quarter can continue to raise expectations
At this point, it's getting harder and harder to give higher growth expectations
Plus storage, AI hardware costs, long-term bond yields, and market discussions about "recycling financing" are all appearing simultaneously
The valuation pressure on the AI industry chain naturally starts to increase
But demand remains strong, data center revenue and cloud providers' CapEx are still growing
So Moonlight thinks the key focus of this adjustment is
The AI track will continue to grow
But how much are these growths really worth?
On August 26, let's find the answer together!
$NVDA $xNVDA When the U.S. Treasury bond market made a "repo" move, it stirred a tidal wave of billions in the crypto world.
Just last week, $BTC surged rapidly from the $64,000 range, rebounding over 21% within three trading days, reaching above $78,000 at its peak. $ETH followed suit with an approximate 25% rise, climbing back to around $2,354. This was no ordinary rebound—over $3 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, with nearly 190,000 people liquidated. The market completed a textbook "short squeeze" driven by extreme positioning and a macro shift.
The essence of this rally is the reignition of the "currency devaluation trade." The U.S. Treasury raised the long-term bond repo cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, pushing down long-term interest rates and weakening the dollar. Gold and Bitcoin rose in tandem—under the pressure of $36 trillion in government bonds, scarce assets outside the government monetary system became attractive again.
Regulatory signals are also being sent. Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, the SEC proposed "crypto asset regulatory rules" allowing some token projects to raise up to $75 million annually. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified 16 assets including XRP and SOL as commodities. Uncertainty is being replaced by a series of rules.
The trend for mainstream coins is clear—macro liquidity inflection, regulatory framework formation, and accelerated institutional allocation, three forces converging. Of course, overbought risks and inflation constraints still exist. $TRUMP After Trump disclosed thousands of securities transactions, the market discussion easily shifted to "What exactly did he buy?" But I think the real focus shouldn't be on copying trades. Instead, it should be: To what extent should people with access to policy information maintain transparency when participating in financial markets? Politicians naturally have information advantages that ordinary investors do not—policy directions, diplomatic judgments, regulatory changes—all of which can affect asset prices in advance. So regardless of whether the trades ultimately make or lose money, the market's real concern should be the rules. Is the disclosure timely enough? How are conflicts of interest handled? Can trading behavior be publicly supervised? These questions are more important than analyzing any single trade. Because the capital market's long-term ability to attract funds has never relied solely on profit opportunities, but on participants believing the rules of the game are relatively fair. I won't buy a stock just because a politician bought it. On the contrary, what I want to see is: The closer power is to the market, the higher the transparency should be. What truly protects ordinary investors is not "following the smart money," but everyone abiding by the same set of rules. #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 Altcoin total market cap increased by 215 billion in three days, Total2 returned to 1 trillion — this is not just numbers, it's a change in market structure.
Trump's statement on the 19th became the direct trigger: announcing that the US will purchase a large amount of Bitcoin, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act to "end the war on cryptocurrencies." These positive factors appeared against the backdrop of extremely thin trading volume and nearly exhausted selling pressure, significantly amplifying the leverage effect. 56% of altcoins returned above the 200-day moving average, a sharp reversal compared to the past few months when 80%-85% were below this average — the policy shift is moving from expectation trading to structural pricing.
And Bitcoin's pattern has never changed: from 2015 when $300 was considered the bottom, to 2017 when $3,000 was the bottom, then $16,000 in 2021, and now $60,000 is the bottom. Each bull-bear cycle raises the bottom. From 120,000 down to 70,000, a 33% drop, according to historical patterns, the next bull market will reach 500,000, then drop to 250,000, and gradually everyone will get used to 250,000 as the bottom.
$DOGE
The market won't move in a straight line, and structural changes won't complete in one day. The signal for altcoin season has already appeared, but the overbought area needs to be digested. Wait for a healthy pullback, then it's not too late to watch. $WIF $PUMP Attention, this Friday the crypto market is about to face an important test: from August 27 to 29, central banks, economists, and policymakers from around the world will gather in Wyoming, USA, to attend the annual Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting. The biggest difference this year compared to previous years is that the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, will stand on the Jackson Hole podium for the first time on August 28 as Fed Chair to deliver a speech. Xiao Huangdou believes that what truly deserves attention this time is studying Walsh's tone: the Fed's liquidity cycle, and the timing of the transition in the next six months or a year? 1. Why study Walsh's Fed era? Because he was facing a crossroads: whichever path he chose would trigger an economic crisis. The difference lies in whether this crisis will manifest as asset collapse or as a complete collapse of the dollar's purchasing power. Over the past two months, Wash has made high-profile statements on multiple occasions to keep inflation pressure below 2%, admitting he "doesn't have a magic wand." However, his remarks did not shake the price trend, and the futures market quickly returned to a high level after brief fluctuations during his speech. More importantly, in the past decade, the U.S. CPI has only twice been below 2%—1.8% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020—with the ten-year average far exceeding 3%, indicating that long-term monetary easing is hard to reverse. Against this backdrop, the market has categorized the options faced by Washi into two sharply opposing paths: one is to stick to tightening and burst the bubble, triggering a similar path#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in
Let's talk about the psychology of trapped positions. Within the high-level range, the behavior of different holding groups in the market will influence price fluctuations. Currently, there are three types of holding groups in the market: The first group consists of long-term holders who entered at the bottom and hold huge unrealized profits; the second group includes short-term traders who chased in the 73000‑78000 range, with slight unrealized profits or losses; the third group is trapped near previous highs, waiting to exit after breaking even. When the price continues to approach 82800, the third group of trapped positions will flood out; when the market pulls back, the second group of short-term holders will be the first to waver and choose to stop loss and exit at slight losses; the first group with low-level positions will take profits in batches during intense market fluctuations. The combined behavior of these three groups creates intense volatility at high levels. Therefore, as the market stands now, the psychology of holdings has become complex, no longer a unilaterally bullish environment where everyone agrees on upward movement. Every step higher faces selling pressure from different groups. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $ETH $BTC What the market is really trading now is no longer Iran, but the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. continues to pressure Iran, while Iran keeps releasing risks related to the Strait of Hormuz.
It seems like geopolitics, but in the end, it could turn into a global inflation trade.
Because the Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary shipping lane; it carries significant global oil and LNG shipments. Once actual traffic volume continues to decline, the supply-side gap will first be reflected in oil prices.
The most troublesome aspect of rising oil prices is:
It’s not just about making gasoline more expensive.
Transportation, chemicals, manufacturing, aviation, and consumption will all be repriced.
This is also why the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to the words "rate cut."
If oil prices only rise due to news, BTC might quickly absorb that.
But if oil prices remain high for a sustained period and start to show up in inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s room for maneuver will clearly shrink.
So the real dividing line between bulls and bears in this cycle is not whether Iran will make harsh statements, but whether oil prices can push inflation back up.$BTC BTC 77,560 — consolidating after a massive week.
Best weekly performance since March 2023 — up 23%+. The trifecta: Treasury buyback cap doubled to $4B (debasement trade), $4B+ in short liquidations, $1.6B ETF inflows.
Key levels: support 76K–77K, resistance 78.2K–78.5K — break above targets 80K. RSI overheating warning.
ETF bids + debasement narrative vs profit-taking + overbought. Let it confirm support.Why do BTC whale statements and on-chain movements diverge, and which should the market trust: what it hears or what it sees? In a market where trillions of won move based on the single word 'trust,' when words and actions contradict, which does the price follow? Recently, two conflicting signals were detected simultaneously in the crypto market. On one hand, a large whale known for long-term holding made bullish statements, while on the other hand, a large amount of ETH was moved from the same address to exchanges. According to on-chain data, the whale address known as 'Wangsoon,' which has participated in the market for 15 years, deposited about 12,765 ETH to exchanges near the peak right after the bullish statements. At the same time, the market-making firm Wintermute was also observed continuously transferring large assets to exchanges. This incident carries significant implications for market structure and cannot be dismissed as a simple trade by an individual address. The pattern of whale statements and movements going in opposite directions is interpreted as a 'distribution signal' repeatedly seen in past cycles. In other words, liquidity providers#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC rose from 63,000 to 79,500 this week, up 26%, marking the largest weekly gain in three years. Then it was rejected and pulled back to hover around 77,000. The surge and pullback pattern is very familiar. But this time, there is a detail that’s different. ▎Who is buying? The spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in one week, hitting a 10-month high. On Thursday alone, $606 million flowed in, with BlackRock contributing $503 million. The cumulative inflow in August reached $2.38 billion, the strongest month this year. The previous week still had a net outflow of $390 million, but it reversed by $2.3 billion within a week. Institutions are not waiting; they have been buying continuously. ▎Why the surge and pullback? There were a large number of sell orders stacked around 79,500. From 63,000 to 79,500, a 26% rise in 5 days, the short-term overbought condition was too severe. During the surge and pullback, $550 million of leveraged long positions were liquidated within 60 minutes. The high leverage was washed out, which actually makes the market healthier. 💡 My judgment: 75,000 is the short-term support. As long as it doesn’t break, the trend is intact. ETFs are continuously buying, which is a real buying force. The surge and pullback is not a bad thing — profit-taking and leverage clearing lay the foundation for the next wave. But the 79,500-80,000 range won’t be crossed in one go. Most likely, it will fluctuate for a few more days, waiting for the moving averages to catch up. For those with positions: hold as long as 75,000 doesn’t break. For those not yet in: wait for a pullback to 75,000-76,000, don’t chase the highs. What do you think, can BTC hold above 80,0 this week