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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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77700美元的BTC,你要追高吗? 先看表面:暴力反弹,散户FOMO追高。 8月中旬还在62k-65k趴着,一周时间直接干到79.5k,周线涨幅23-26%,是近年最大单周涨幅之一。全网空单爆仓数十亿美金,韭菜刚割完肉,行情就起飞了。 K线告诉你:成功突破67.5k箱体,站上200日均线(71.7k),周线形成更高低点——中期趋势已转多,但短期别追高。 第一件事:ETF单周流入19亿,这不是散户能拉出来的量。 现货BTC ETF本周净流入约19亿美元,创10个月新高。BlackRock IBIT贡献最大,机构真金白银在买。 Ray Dalio都公开建议配置BTC对冲美国债务风险了。你还在等回调?人家在买,你在看,每次都是这样。 第二件事:美国财政部放大招,流动性阀门打开了。 美国财政部宣布至少加倍长期国债回购规模至40亿美元量级,直接压低长端收益率。 国债回购=往市场撒钱 长端收益率下降=风险资产更值钱 BTC、黄金直接受益 叠加特朗普推动CLARITY Act(9月15日投票),给加密行业"政策明朗化"预期。监管松绑+流动性释放,牛市的双重配方。 第三件事:技术面出现了一个必须警惕的信号。 日线RSI进入超买区(78-88),价格贴近布林上轨,4H出现冷却信号。从79.5k回落至77k,属于典型"急涨后高位盘整"。 别慌——这是健康回调消化,不是趋势结束。关键在于:76k-76.5k能否守住。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: ETF单周流入19亿,创10个月新高 美国财政部撒钱,流动性阀门打开 特朗普政策利好+Ray Dalio喊单 周线突破箱体,中期趋势转多 一边是: 日线RSI超买88,短期过热 本周PCE+Jackson Hole,鹰派可能砸盘 76k若守不住,回踩73k-74k 资金费率转正,多头拥挤 关键位置 上方阻力:78.5k-79.5k(近期高点)→ 80k(心理关口)→ 82k-85k → 95k 下方支撑:76k-76.5k(回踩位)→ 75k(斐波那契)→ 73k-74k(强需求区) 操作策略 短线选手: 等回踩76k-76.5k轻仓试多,止损75k下方,第一目标79.5k-80k,第二82k-85k。 波段玩家: 等放量站稳79.5k-80k再右侧追多,止损78k,目标95k方向。如果跌破75k并放量,先观望等73k-74k再抄底。 长线信仰者: 73k-74k挂单接货,跌到就是赚到。ETF持续流入+债务叙事+监管明朗化,2027年目标100k+。但记住——本周PCE+Jackson Hole波动巨大,仓位别太重。 BTC这一周涨了23%,但你可能亏钱了—— 因为你每次都在底部割肉,在顶部追高。 80k突破的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是BTC不行,是你每次都死在黎明前。 你的BTC成本是多少? 77700这个位置,你敢加仓吗? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡,ETF资金持续流入
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
TRUMP at $2.4, do you dare to bottom-fish? Doubled in a week, retail investors shout “TRUMP to the moon.” On August 19, at the White House Crypto Summit, Trump gathered crypto executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others along with the SEC and CFTC chairmen, publicly calling on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, declaring "the crypto war is finally over." The token reversed sharply from a low of 1.37 in a V-shape, reaching a high of $3.68 on August 22, an 80% increase in a week. Shorts were liquidated for $30 million, whales bought 100% — but then? It dropped back to 2.4 in three days, a decline of over 30%. First: The team precisely sold near $3, retail investors took the bags. On-chain analyst Yu Jin monitored that the TRUMP team address transferred 3.837 million tokens to OKX yesterday, worth $9.33 million. Starting early this morning, the address sold 1.1 million tokens by adding unilateral liquidity, receiving 2.94 million USDC at an average selling price of $2.68. This selling method is a fixed routine: swapping from the Meteora unilateral liquidity pool to USDC, then transferring via BitGo custody wallet to CEXs like OKX. The same path, the same script since last December. Second: The White House summit halo is quickly fading. The August 19 summit was the core catalyst for this rally. Trump’s pro-crypto stance, expectations for the CLARITY Act, and CFTC pushing Hyperliquid into the US — each was like a nuclear-level positive. But the reality: The CLARITY Act faces a Senate vote in September requiring 60 votes to pass. The ethics clause (officials’ coin issuance restrictions) is the main controversy. SEC and CFTC have started pushing their own rules as alternatives. Third: Fundamentals are paper-thin, but memes don’t need fundamentals. Total supply is 1 billion tokens, circulating only 230-250 million, FDV far exceeds market cap. The team holds a very high proportion, with an ongoing unlock schedule releasing supply. This is a sophisticated “retail cash-out machine” — news pumps the price, hype fades, they sell, rinse and repeat. Bull vs. Bear, you decide: On one side: White House summit confirms pro-crypto stance, policy shift CLARITY Act vote in September, passing would be super bullish Surged 168% from 1.37, trend turned bullish BTC strong recently (around 77,000), market environment risk-on On the other side: Team precisely sold at $2.68, cashed out $2.94 million Dropped over 30% from 3.68 to 2.4 in three days Uncertain probability of bill passing in September, bullish hopes may fail Insiders hold over 80%, unlock schedule dilutes continuously Key levels: Resistance above: 2.60-2.70 (intraday high) → 3.00-3.20 → 3.50-3.60 (previous high) Support below: 2.30-2.35 → 2.00-2.10 → 1.70-1.80 Trading strategy: Short-term traders: Lightly long on a stable bounce at 2.30-2.35, stop loss at 2.20, target 2.60-2.80. Buy on volume breakout above 2.70, stop loss 2.50, target 3.20. Swing traders: Wait for clarity on the CLARITY Act in September before acting. If passed, target 3.5+; if not, possible pullback to 1.7. Risk control: Position size no more than 5% of total capital Leverage no more than 5x Watch on-chain team wallet movements — when they move, you should run News-driven rallies come fast and go fast, take profits when you can, don’t be greedy TRUMP token is a microcosm of the entire meme market — When it surges, you think “this time is different,” when it crashes, you realize “it’s always the same.” The team sells at 2.68, retail chases at 3.6. Who’s making money, who’s paying the price? The biggest risk of meme coins isn’t price drops, it’s thinking you’re investing when you’re actually handing insiders their year-end bonuses. TRUMP at 2.4, do you dare to bottom-fish? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP

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