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The fact that ETH is first targeting $2,500 suggests that the order of capital attack has changed in this cycle. In the previous period when Bitcoin hit $83,000, ETH stayed at $2,400, but now ETH has reached the resistance level before BTC recovers to $80,000. What does this mean? The key fact is clear. BTC has not yet completed breaking through $80,000, while ETH has already approached the psychological resistance level of $2,500. This is not just a simultaneous rise; it signals that ETH, which was relatively neglected, is attracting buying momentum first. The structural difference in this movement is that the target of 'chase buying' has changed. In the previous rally, capital moved to ETH after confirming BTC's strength. However, now capital is proactively moving to fill ETH's price discount first without waiting for BTC's further rise. This is an early phase where risk appetite is expanding to altcoins Today's top gainers list feels off.
The overall market isn't crazy, but DeFi is going wild.
SPK surged over 26% in a single day, MORPHO up 20.84%, AAVE up 16.76%, PENDLE up 14.34%, ENA up 13.64%.
This isn't the mindless pump of meme season. Capital is selectively choosing targets, and the picks are very sharp.
Three signals tell you this round is different:
Signal one: The gainers are all "revenue-generating and governance-enabled" protocols, not air coins.
AAVE—the lending leader with real interest income. PENDLE—in the yield trading sector with real protocol revenue. ENA—a synthetic dollar protocol with real business use cases.
It's not meme coins leading the rally, but DeFi blue chips taking the lead.
Signal two: ENA surged 96% weekly, whale positions remain untouched.
ENA's one-week gain reached 96%, far exceeding the sector average.
The key point? In March 2025, whales massively increased holdings in AAVE, MKR, and ENA, a year and a half ago—and their positions haven't moved since.
This is not short-term speculative capital. It's long-term positioning.
Signal three: The market transmission path is extremely clear
ETH → DeFi blue chips (AAVE, PENDLE) → emerging protocols (SPK, MORPHO).
The rhythm is clear, the layers distinct. Very similar to the broad rally in May 2024.Behind ETH Leading the Rally, Understanding the Market Funds' Preference Shift
In many previous market trends, Bitcoin would lead the market rally, with ETH passively following. However, this round is completely reversed: ETH has become the main offensive force, while BTC fluctuates to provide support.
This reflects the market funds' mentality: during the rebound cycle, funds are no longer satisfied with Bitcoin's low-volatility returns and begin to pursue the elastic premium brought by Ethereum. In terms of trading volume, ETH's transaction scale also exceeds BTC's, indicating higher fund activity.
But the reality must be seen clearly: BTC's weak rise indicates that the overall incremental funds in the market remain limited. This is an internal rotation of existing funds, with some funds flowing out of Bitcoin into ETH.
This rotation market has two sides: ETH can become stronger, but once funds flow back, the leading coin's correction will also be more significant. In terms of operation, avoid chasing the rally; waiting for a pullback to support before considering opportunities is much safer.
#TradingInsights #CryptoMarket
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE 1. On August 23, industry research showed that SanDisk and Kioxia's NAND remains at 218 layers, lower than Micron's 276 layers, Samsung's 286 layers, and SK Hynix's 321 layers, and they are not listed among manufacturers that have clearly shifted to molybdenum word line technology, creating pressure from the technological generational gap.
2. As of the week ending August 21, the AI high-beta portfolio fell 12%, the AI hedged portfolio fell 10%, semiconductors entered a short-term momentum bearish portfolio, with deleveraging and capital rotation dragging down memory stocks.
3. On August 21, Fortress Investment disclosed that it had disposed of over 80% of the risk exposure of the acquired portfolio through more than 100 block trades; the portfolio was originally heavily weighted in SanDisk, and the concentrated risk reduction increased supply pressure on related stocks.
4. On August 24, the memory industry cycle downturn and ongoing AI bubble concerns continued to suppress SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital; SanDisk has risen 572.37% year-to-date, and profit-taking at high levels further amplified the correction #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
Indeed, Kashkari believes the U.S. Treasury market is functioning normally and does not require Federal Reserve intervention, which sharply contrasts with the Treasury Department's expanded repurchase "rescue" efforts. The mainstream market consensus on whether long-term Treasury repurchases can "solve the root problem" is clear: they cannot. This is more like a tactical intervention that cannot address deep structural issues.
Kashkari's stance of "no rescue" versus the Treasury's "rescue" actions precisely reveals the essence of the current dilemma: the root cause lies in fiscal policy, not monetary policy or market technical failures.
With the Federal Reserve unwilling to coordinate intervention through balance sheet expansion, the Treasury's repurchases are like "using a credit card to pay a mortgage"—using new debt (short-term debt) to pay off old debt (long-term debt), which does not solve the fundamental debt burden. As long as fiscal discipline is not restored, global capital does not return, and structural supply and demand remain imbalanced, the upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields will be difficult to truly alleviate. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Interestingly: what the market really lacks now is not an answer about rate cuts, but a policy framework that can be priced in advance.
I actually think the most valuable part of Warsh's speech this time is not whether he is "hawkish or dovish."
What the market really wants to know is: what exactly is the Fed looking at next.
If employment continues to cool down but inflation remains sticky, will interest rates be adjusted early due to employment pressure? If data like PCE and GDP continue to conflict, which side will policy prioritize?
This is what will determine BTC's future trajectory.
My habit is not to bet on a direction ahead of such major events.
I'd rather miss the first candlestick than lock myself into a viewpoint before the speech.
The easiest way to lose money in macro trading is to mistake "expectations" for "facts."
This time, I’m more focused on whether Warsh can clearly explain the future judgment framework.
If he only gives the market a vague answer, volatility might actually increase.
Will you position in advance, or wait for the speech to land before making a move?
$BTC $ETH The overall market is broadly down, BTC -0.9%, SOL -2%, DOGE -3%, while $OKB bucks the trend, rising 4 points to stand at 113. This pace definitely makes it an outlier among exchange tokens.
Why is it like this? I've broken it down into three logics:
First, the compliance narrative is taking hold. Licenses from Dubai, Bahrain, and Australia have been obtained one after another in the past six months. The market is re-pricing OKX from a "Chinese exchange" to a "global exchange," and this revaluation is not yet complete.
Second, the on-chain ecosystem is picking up. OKX Chain's TVL has doubled this quarter. OKB, as the Gas and governance token, has for the first time gained substantial on-chain fundamental support, no longer just a fee discount coupon.
Third, and most tangible, is the buyback and burn. The circulating supply is only 21 million tokens, with a historical high of 257, now at 113, a halving level. Quarterly buybacks with real cash and the deflationary logic of burning fewer tokens over time is especially favored in a market of fixed supply competition.
But to pour cold water: a 10% rise in 7 days means there are many profit-taking positions in the 108-116 range. Above 116 is a previous trapped zone, and breaking through requires volume. The fact it can still rise today despite the weak overall market shows the buying is solid, but chasing the high is not cost-effective.
My approach: continue holding the base position as ballast, and add more on dips to 105-108. The alpha of exchange tokens lies in platform fundamentals, not short-term speculation. $TRUMP is very unlikely to sustain a sharp rally. Why? Because every time it rises, members of the Trump family sell the coin. With this continuous selling pressure, how can it keep going up? Moreover, the shorting force in the market is still very strong. So I believe it is still possible to short now. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its current contract open interest has slightly decreased, and the long-short ratio has slightly increased. However, its contract open interest remains high, and the long-short ratio is still low. This means that the number of shorts taking profits is still relatively small, and the bears still hold a significant advantage. Looking at a longer time frame, the data is similar to the short-term data. This means that both long-term and short-term market sentiment is bearish. —————————————————— Furthermore, according to on-chain data, the $TRUMP team has been continuously selling tokens. In the past two days, they have sold around tens of millions of dollars worth of tokens. Under these circumstances, I don't believe $TRUMP can sustain an upward trend. —————————————————— At this point, it is completely reasonable to short $TRUMP. Shorting it is safer than shorting other coins because even the coin's own team doesn't believe in it. Seeing the Iranian official currency drop like this this afternoon, I have a feeling that at 2 a.m. tonight, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will say something bearish about Bitcoin $BTC. I've been speculating a lot recently, but I hope it's true, hahaha.
With the devaluation of the Iranian currency, some funds will definitely be transferred into cryptocurrencies. Because the U.S. dollar can't be used in Iran and is not officially recognized, they will turn to cryptocurrencies. I feel it will mainly be stablecoins, but recently, USDT and USDC have had source-level risk controls and froze some Iranian accounts, making stablecoins unstable for use in Iran. So I think they will shift more funds toward Bitcoin.
And since the U.S. is going to impose economic sanctions on Iran, they will control funds from the source, which means they will definitely sanction Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges and even the channels for cryptocurrency liquidity. What actually convinced me to examine $DOGE was its connection to a gaming-focused blockchain ecosystem rather than treating the token as isolated. Gaming networks can use blockchain infrastructure for transparent ownership, transferable digital assets, and programmable interactions between applications. Most projects usually deliver only one or two capabilities, so combiningWhat actually convinced me to examine $OG was its connection to a .The Trump family holds 37.5% of the WLFI token shares through related entities, with the early circulation rate long maintained in the 20%-30% range. The vast majority of tokens are concentrated in the hands of the core founding team and early institutions.
2. Potential Impact Logic of Trust-Related Factors on WLFI Token Price
1. Indirect Transmission of Offshore Trust Tax New Regulations
The offshore trust pass-through taxation policy, effective August 2026, significantly increases the tax cost of cross-border asset transfers. Some offshore trust entities holding WLFI may adjust their holdings for compliance needs, causing minor short-term selling pressure. However, due to the high concentration of WLFI tokens, such selling pressure has very limited actual impact on the token price.
2. Chip Locking Effect of Family Trusts
The Trump family places large amounts of WLFI tokens into family trusts for long-term holding, which can greatly reduce selling pressure from circulating market supply, decrease the risk of large short-term dumps, provide implicit support for the token price, and prevent extreme irrational price crashes.
3. Market Sentiment Disturbance from Trust-Related Information
If rumors spread that large amounts of WLFI tokens are being transferred or reduced through trusts, it will directly trigger panic selling by retail investors, causing a rapid short-term price drop; conversely, if positive news emerges about long-term holdings locked through trusts, it will help push the token price into a phase of impulsive gains.
3. Core Observation Points for Future Trends
• The key focus is on the unlocking schedule of WLFI tokens held by the Trump family through trusts, which is a critical variable affecting the medium- to long-term token price trend. After ETH's weekly rise of 30%, it is stuck at 2460 — is this the second throttle, or a high-level turnover from "ETF single-day outflow"? $ETH
First, let's set the market context
On August 24, ETH fluctuated around $2451–2463, with a weekly gain of about 29%–30%. During the week, it surged from 1890 all the way to a high of 2524–2546 before pulling back. The Fear & Greed index surged to an extreme greed zone of 73–79. The 4-hour MACD has shown a death cross, and the daily RSI is around 66–72, typical of a "sharp rally followed by digestion."
This wave is not just a pure altcoin catch-up rally; it’s a combination of ETF, short squeeze, and supply tightening.
From August 17 to 21, the US spot ETH ETF had a weekly net inflow of about $697 million, the strongest single week since October 2025, with BlackRock ETHA taking the lion’s share; total AUM returned to around $14.3 billion, accounting for about 4.85% of ETH’s market cap.
On August 19, ETH surged 17.5% in a single day. During the same 24-hour period, ETH accounted for $265 million in total network liquidations, clearly showing shorts being forced out and followed by buying pressure pushing prices up.
Exchange reserves have dropped about 15% from early June to mid-August, with approximately 1.15 million ETH moved off centralized exchanges; staked ETH is about 41.7 million, accounting for one-third of the total supply, with BitMine alone locking up 5.81 million — the spot market available for dumping is much thinner than it appears.
$ETH $OKB surged today, but don't stand guard at the peak.
On August 24, OKX CEO Star announced two major highlights: a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund was launched, and Circle USDC + CCTP officially joined X Layer, opening the floodgates for stablecoin liquidity. This is a rare independent narrative among the six major tokens. Once the news broke, OKB instantly pulsed to $212.
But stay clear-headed—the all-time high of $239.91 set on August 21 still looms overhead. Afterward, the price once retraced to around $110 and fluctuated. Today's surge is a typical news-driven "spike," not a trend reversal. The cross-platform price gap is extremely exaggerated (OKX converter shows about $110, while the news-driven price reached $212), highlighting the intensity of the bulls and bears battle.
Looking at the solid fundamentals: Messari data shows that since the 2021 bull market peak, only 22 tokens outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one maintaining a lead over its peak from that year. The total supply is capped at 21 million (with 65.25 million already burned) + ICE strategic investment (valued at $25 billion), so the foundation is indeed solid.
However, the correction structure after the $239 high is not yet complete. Today's rally is a pulse-like stress reaction with questionable sustainability. Whether the $1 billion fund can truly translate into on-chain activity is the key variable; slogans alone can't support a second leg.
Comparatively, OKB uniquely enjoys a triple narrative of "deflation + ecosystem + compliance" among the six major tokens, making its scarcity undeniable. But the short-term price has already been pushed to a high by positive news. Buying in now is tantamount to carrying the news-driven rally. Wait for a pullback, then talk about conviction.
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
A brief chat about gold~
Gold has risen above $4650, hitting a three-month high, with New York futures touching $4700 intraday, and domestic gold futures surging 2.86% to break above 1000 yuan again. Four days ago, gold prices were still hovering around 4500; this $150 acceleration is entirely driven by safe-haven funds.
US Treasuries are now being questioned for their "risk-free" status. Last week, Bassett attempted a "Treasury version of twist operation" to suppress long-term yields, but it only worked for a day. Long-term bond yields rebounded, with the 30-year yield stuck above 5.2%. The market is starting to worry that administrative measures distort pricing, ultimately eroding the dollar's credit. As a result, capital is voting with its feet: selling US Treasuries and buying gold. Even Asia has shifted from "capital flowing back to Europe and the US during crises" to becoming a "local safe-haven pool," shaking the dollar's traditional strongholds.
Gold and bonds are competing for the same "safe-haven" label, and this time the competition is fierce. Bonds remain bonds, but the definition of "safety" is being rewritten. $XAU gold leads the reversal, $BTC is replicating a similar rhythm
Recently, gold has completed a full bottoming and rebound trend, shifting from weak to strong, while Bitcoin's current market structure is slowly replicating gold's recovery path.
Influenced by the liquidity easing from U.S. Treasury repurchase operations, the correlation between gold and BTC is strengthening, with both gradually moving in an inverse pattern to the U.S. dollar. Their safe-haven and inflation-hedging attributes are being recognized by the market simultaneously.
Gold continues to hit new highs after stabilizing above 4600, while BTC opts for high-level sideways consolidation to digest previous large gains, which is a very healthy accumulation adjustment.
Currently, the market focus continues to rise, and without sudden negative news, a deep short-term drop is unlikely.
The overall rhythm going forward is expected to be volatile with upward surges, with the biggest variable in the market still depending on external news disturbances.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 北京时间8月25日凌晨2点，美国财长贝森特正式宣布对伊朗实施“史上最严制裁”。 贝森特表示，这是人类历史上规模最大的协同经济孤立行动，核心就是，强迫全球所有国家和企业在美国和伊朗之间选边站。 制裁重点针对三类经贸活动，购买伊朗石油、向伊朗转账汇款、海上转运伊朗原油。任何继续与伊朗做生意的国家和企业，都将面临美国的次级制裁。 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊警告，如果美国继续打经济战，伊朗将封锁霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，并表示，没有一滴石油会通过霍尔木兹海峡乃至波斯湾地区出口。任何参与或支持美国对伊朗经济战的国家，都将被伊朗视为敌人。 这个制裁是川普在8月19日宣布的，当时原话是，将对伊朗发动“有史以来针对国家的最具毁灭性的经济行动”。美财政部长贝森特紧随其后证实，然后会在将于8月24日-25日，正式公布具体措施。 现在最严制裁即将靴子落地，短期不确定性基本消除，为此有意思的是，部分资金重新选择了进场。 所以即便今晚2点公布具体操作，对BTC价格所造成的影响应该是有限的。 而油价才是更核心的隐患。 布伦特原油目前已站上92美元/桶，伊朗石油出口已从战前日均200万桶骤降至28.7万桶。如果NVIDIA reported earnings after the market close on the 26th, with expected revenue of 92 billion and EPS of 2.09. Last quarter they hit 81.6 billion; whether they can beat expectations again, the whole market is watching.
AI has been burning money for nearly two years, and it's time to settle the accounts. Cloud providers are aggressively spending capital this year—Google 200 billion, Amazon 220 billion, Meta 130 to 145 billion.
When will the money be made back? Morgan Stanley says AI's ROIC in the inference era can reach 25%-50%, but the reality is a severe imbalance between input and output. Tencent's free cash flow turned negative for the first time, Alibaba's net profit plummeted by over 70%, and no company dares to say they've closed the loop successfully.
However, storage in the AI chain is even more profitable than NVIDIA. SK Hynix's Q2 operating margin reached 76%, with an HBM market share of 58%, and revenue exceeded 100 trillion Korean won in the first half. Micron's FQ3 revenue increased by 346% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 84.6%. This year, all HBM capacity is sold out, and over 60% of next year's capacity is already locked in. SanDisk is even more impressive, with Q4 revenue up 372% year-over-year, data center revenue surging 13 times, holding 8 long-term orders guaranteeing at least 93.9 billion, and announcing a 14 billion buyback.
Risks also exist. Jensen Huang said Rubin Ultra memory was cut in half, and Hynix's stock plunged 19% that day. SanDisk's Q4 sequential growth of two-thirds relied on price increases, and next quarter's guidance is below the market's very high expectations, raising doubts about whether the price hike momentum can be sustained. The 6% HBM supply gap is real, and customer order cuts are also a genuine concern.
AI returns have entered the verification period: the boasting is over, it's time to talk numbers
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC and $ETH: A New Market Phase
From the intense volatility over the past week, $BTC and $ETH may indeed have entered a new phase driven by macro liquidity and regulatory expectations. In the short term, market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to greed, but the medium- to long-term logic has fundamentally changed.
This is reflected in three specific aspects:
📈 Core Drivers: From "Narrative Speculation" to "Policy Market"
The trigger for this surge is very clear, entirely ignited by the shift in U.S. macro policy:
· Liquidity Valve Loosened: The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, interpreted by the market as a signal to start "fiat depreciation trades."
· Regulatory Shackles Loosened: Trump pushed the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," with $SEC and $CFTC successively releasing compliance pathway signals, clearing the biggest market uncertainty.
📊 Capital Transmission: Classic "$BTC Sets the Stage, $ETH Performs"
Capital flows perfectly replicate the typical bull market transmission path, with $ETF becoming the absolute indicator:
· Massive $ETF Inflows: Last week, U.S. $BTC and $ETH spot $ETF net inflows totaled $2.6 billion, hitting a multi-month high.
· $ETH Catch-Up Rally: After $BTC rose over 26% in a single week, $ETH launched a violent catch-up rally with a weekly gain close to 30%, and exchange $ETH supply dropped 15% within the month, showing chips are accelerating from selling to staking lock-up.
⚠️ Short-Term Battle: The Long-Short Decisive Battle at the $80,000 Level
Although the medium- to long-term bottom seems established, short-term risks cannot be ignored:
· Technical Overbought: $BTC is approaching the $80,000 psychological level, also facing strong resistance between $80,600 and $82,850, likely entering a high-level consolidation in the short term.
· Divergent Expert Views: Some analysts are 90% certain the bear market is over and bullish on $ETH outperforming $BTC, but others point out this is only a rebound wave with pullback risks. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $SOL entered Devnet at 200ms, mainnet account is still empty
Checked RPC at 17:05 on August 24: Devnet 200ms account activated at 14:53, average of 5 samples over 60 seconds is about 216ms/slot.
The same account on mainnet is still null. SIMD-0525 is progressing in 4 tiers; testnet speedup does not mean mainnet is twice as fast.
I will only consider it live if the mainnet account appears and consecutive samples are close to 200ms.
Would you count testnet activation as going live, or wait for the mainnet account to appear? Why?
Source: SIMD-0525, Solana RPC (17:05).
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
#OKXPlanet #SOL #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Since taking office as Fed Chair in May, Waller has systematically overturned his predecessor's communication paradigm—significantly shortening policy statements, eliminating explicit forward guidance, and no longer submitting individual interest rate dot plot forecasts. After the July FOMC meeting, he neither deeply analyzed the economic situation nor provided forward guidance on rates, which the market interpreted as a lack of determination to control inflation, causing long-term bond yields to rise to a twenty-year high.
Meanwhile, U.S. inflation has remained above the 2% target for over five consecutive years, public debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.34%—the highest since 2007. A survey by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business shows that nearly 60% of economists believe the Fed will take longer than expected to achieve its inflation target, and over 60% of respondents think Waller's communication strategy has had an "extremely significant or quite substantial" upward effect on long-term Treasury yields.
Against this backdrop, market expectations for Waller's Friday speech are unprecedentedly focused: can he provide a clear policy path?
It is unlikely that Waller will provide explicit policy path guidance from September to December at Jackson Hole.
The speech is scheduled for 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 28 (Friday) (10:00 PM Beijing Time on August 28). Regardless of the outcome, this will be a critical moment to test whether the "Waller-style Fed" can stand firm under pressure. What Basent did last time was digested by the market in less than a day.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced doubling the long-term Treasury buyback scale from 2 billion to 4 billion, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly fell then returned to a high level, basically flat for the week.
Basent himself said the market "overreacted a bit."
As a result, the dollar fell nearly 1% that week, gold surged to $4600, and Bitcoin rose more than 25% in a single week.
Basent failed to suppress long bonds; instead, he ignited the "currency depreciation trade" in gold and Bitcoin. The market voted with money—the dollar fell, gold rose, Bitcoin rose.
Now the baton has passed to Wash.
He is scheduled to speak this Friday at Jackson Hole. Since taking office in May, Wash has hardly given any clear forward guidance, and the market is extremely sensitive to what he says.
HSBC interest rate strategists put it bluntly—if Wash can provide a qualitative judgment on potential inflation pressures, it would be enough to reduce uncertainty. If it’s the same old approach, long-end selling will only intensify.
One is adjusting the debt maturity structure, the other is setting inflation expectations. The Treasury’s operation only lasted a day; next, we look to the Federal Reserve. $ETH Bitcoin consolidated near the $77,000 high over the weekend, briefly dipping below $77,000 early Monday before rebounding above $78,000.
It has risen about 23% over the past week, hitting an intraday high of $79,500 on Friday, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023.
Coinage founder Zack Guzman offered an assessment: Bitcoin "has established itself as a depreciating trade," with this rally mainly driven by direct purchases rather than leverage.
Data supports this view—Bitcoin's 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 index plummeted from about 0.43 last Friday to near zero, while its correlation with gold climbed above 0.5.
This is the seventh weekly occurrence since 2015 of the combination "stocks down, gold up, dollar down, Bitcoin surging," and the only time it happened alongside a rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields.
The bond market almost fully absorbed Wednesday's 9 basis point drop in Treasury yields, but Bitcoin and gold did not pull back—Bitcoin rose over 10% again on Friday, and gold gained another 2%. $ETH $BTC ETH’s stronger 24-hour gain while BTC holds near $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. A test of $2,500 matters, but confirmation requires ETH to keep outperforming without BTC losing its footing. Macro conditions still argue for restraint. Treasury buyback signals may support liquidity at the margin, while renewed Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure. For now, I would treat crypto strength as constructive but tactical, not a clean regime shift.#BTCETF#SPCX 319 million shares unlocked this week, can the selling pressure be absorbed?
The leader has something to say
Another batch of SPCX shares is unlocked, with 319 million shares becoming tradable. This is the second wave after the 912 million shares unlocked on August 6.
But this time is different from last time. The last time was the first batch unlocked after the IPO, the most panic-stricken moment in the market. The result was that the price dropped as expected, but SPCX rose from 105 to 133, proving that the bottom support was strong enough.
This time the scale is much smaller, 319 million shares, less than one-third of the first batch. The previous round didn’t crash the price, so this round is even less likely to. Moreover, SPCX rose from 110 to above 150, now falling back to around 135, still much higher than the IPO price, indicating that the fundamental support logic is stronger than the unlocking pressure.
Institutional holdings are tightly locked. Harvard’s holdings account for 51.8% of the 13F portfolio, Nvidia holds 21 billion, Alphabet, Fidelity, and BlackRock are all on the main holders list. These top institutions are not here for short-term speculation; the higher the lock-up ratio, the more limited the actual circulating selling pressure.
I started accumulating SPCX from 110 gradually, and the profits are quite substantial. The unlocking window is a short-term disturbance, not a trend reversal. I will keep my base position, neither adding nor reducing, and wait for the unlocking sentiment to be fully digested. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop-loss set, good luck.$OKB CEO Star announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund to support global developers in building applications on-chain. On the same day, Circle's native USDC and the cross-chain protocol CCTP officially went live on X Layer.
These two events should be viewed together. The ecosystem fund is the ammunition, and native USDC is the infrastructure. Previously, X Layer used a cross-chain version of USDC, not officially issued by Circle, so liquidity was naturally discounted. Now with official integration, the stablecoin channel is fully opened. A DeFi developer said: official USDC integration is more substantial than signing ten small project partnerships.
The transmission logic for OKB is very clear: X Layer ecosystem expansion → increased on-chain Gas consumption → rising demand for OKB as the Gas token. Coupled with exchange staking, buyback, and burn, the deflationary loop is tightening.
Conclusion: bullish in the mid-term. The progress of the $1 billion fund implementation is a key observation indicator. X Layer TVL breaking through 200 million is a signal to increase positions. Buy OKB in batches below $105.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 $BTC is still stuck around 77000 while $ETH is charging ahead enthusiastically.
Honestly, this surge from 63000 has me completely baffled. A 16000-point increase in a single week doesn’t look like the start of a bull market; it feels more like shorts getting swept out. The real bottom was when no one believed and it slowly pushed up, but now the whole network is shouting that the bull market is here, with predictions of breaking 100,000 by year-end, and some analysts even saying 1,000,000. I’m actually a bit skeptical.
I still hold short positions opened at 77300, with paper-thin floating profits. ETH went from 1500 to 2500, and the four-month drop was recovered in just a few days. This violent pump looks more like short covering rather than genuine buying with real money.
What’s driving this week’s rise? The US-Iran conflict escalated, oil prices soared, gold hit 4640, and BTC caught some safe-haven heat. But how long can this news-driven rally last? Tonight, Basent will speak, and on Friday, Walsh will appear, with PCE data releasing simultaneously. If inflation can’t be controlled and rate hike expectations rise, liquidity tightens, BTC might be the first to crash.
77000 has been sideways for several days. It can’t go up or down, and I feel a correction is coming, but those chasing highs are still rushing in. Above 80,000 is all trapped positions; chasing here isn’t cost-effective. After next month’s crypto bill benefits are realized, it might just revert to its original state.
Missing out is fine; it’s better than standing guard at the top. I’ll wait for a big bearish candle before making a move—I’m bearish!
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #ETH surges strongly, short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion #The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has significantly declined: independence or illusion? Good evening, everyone!
Breaking down BTC, ETH, and SOL from three dimensions: supply structure, capital attributes, and valuation constraints.
$BTC BTC has the strongest certainty on the supply side, with limited new output. ETFs bring incremental institutional capital, but institutions have a portfolio mindset and are not infinitely bullish. Current market contradiction: institutions hold the base positions, retail traders do swing trading. Price increases come from external capital inflows, with no cash flow generated on-chain. Its ceiling is determined by the acceptance level of traditional finance toward crypto assets. Internally, there is almost no iteration risk, but it is completely subject to US dollar liquidity. Market characteristics: long consolidation and bottoming periods, trend driven by macro factors, and elasticity in the mid-to-late bull market often weaker than competing coins.
$ETH ETH supply is jointly regulated by network fees and staking, theoretically possessing a mechanism for yield to flow back to the token. The real contradiction lies in Layer 2 chains diverting mainnet transactions, with gas burning continuously declining, weakening the deflationary effect. ETH-ETF brings capital inflows, which is external capital injection and does not solve the structural problem of value capture mismatch. The ecosystem is expanding, but the token’s share of the yield is decreasing. This explains why ETH’s rebound strength is decent, but the ETH/BTC ratio struggles to sustain strength. Its risk is not technical collapse but the decoupling of ecosystem prosperity from token value.
$SOL SOL faces the most prominent supply pressure, with continuous token unlocks creating rigid selling pressure. On-chain transactions are active, mainly from meme and speculative activities, with a low proportion of real sustainable business. Fee income is minimal, making it difficult to hedge inflationary selling pressure. A large part of the market pricing reflects the forward expectation of SOL-ETF approval, essentially pricing in the future narrative early. If the narrative fails to meet expectations, it is prone to a pullback after positive news. SOL has a high proportion of speculative funds, with strong upward explosive power but also significantly larger retracements than BTC and ETH.
Overall, BTC wins on consensus and supply certainty; ETH is trapped by value capture mismatch; SOL relies on continuous new capital to absorb selling pressure. Liquidity recovery can lift prices but will not eliminate the inherent structural issues of the three. US Treasury yields, regulation, and ETF capital remain the most important short-term external variables.$BTC The two 1-hour level rebounds of Bitcoin were suppressed once at 787 and once at 777. Currently, the 1-hour chart has formed a correction pattern, so entering long positions requires further waiting. Except for altcoins running independent trends, it's best to temporarily observe others.
If it rebounds again and is still suppressed between 777-787, then the downside will first target around 750 (763 has already been tested once).
Buying on dips is correct, but don't start buying at the slightest drop; that wouldn't be a strategic long position, it would be a mid-term trap...
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Babala is back to take long positions on MU! $MU
This time I opened a long at 936, not simply because I think the drop was too much and it should rise, nor blindly bottom-fishing after seeing a big bearish candle, but because the price has returned to the support area I have been watching.
MU previously rebounded from around 738 to 1036, then surged and pulled back, finding support near 915, and rebounded again above 970. This shows there is still buying interest below, but the 990—1036 resistance zone has not been truly broken yet. The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a large rebound.
Before today's market open, influenced by weakness in the Nasdaq and chip sector, MU quickly fell from around 966 back to the 930—950 support zone. The hourly EMA200 is also near 929, and the previous low is at 915, so 936 is close to both horizontal support and a long-term moving average, making it suitable to try a small position long.
What I am doing is not a certain reversal, but a low-cost trial near support.
✔ Entry: 936
✔ First take profit: 965—975, reduce part of the position
✔ Main target: 990—1000
✔ Final target: 1025—1036
✔ If volume breaks above 1036, then there is a chance to target 1080—1110
✔ If hourly chart breaks below 930, reduce position first; hard stop loss near 914
Entering at 936 with a stop loss at 914 means a single trade risk of about 22 points; the main target at 1000 offers a potential gain of about 64 points, a risk-reward ratio close to 1:3. If it can eventually return to 1036, the risk-reward ratio can exceed 1:4, which is the main reason I am willing to try going long near support.
Of course, this trade is still a left-side trade; a real strength confirmation requires reclaiming 950 and holding above 975. As long as 930 holds, MU still has the potential to form higher lows and continue rebounding; but if 930 and 915 are consecutively broken, it means this support failed and the price may look for the 840—870 area below again.
I will not add to the position, nor will I move the stop loss lower just because I don't want to take a loss.
If the judgment is correct, take profits in batches; if wrong, exit according to plan. Trading is not about always catching the absolute bottom, but about using limited risk at logical points to gain larger potential.I am Cige. The US has officially implemented a new round of sanctions on Iran, claiming it to be the "most devastating economic action," targeting oil buyers, traders, and financial channels. Iran responded firmly, stating that if the US launches an economic war, there will be no more oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf.
The real killer move is secondary sanctions; countries that continue to buy Iranian oil will be implicated. Actual navigation through Hormuz has dropped to an extremely low level, with only 7 ships passing on Friday, and no large oil tankers or LNG ships at all. Brent crude rose 6.4% last week to around $93.
The impact on BTC follows the transmission chain of "oil price driving inflation, inflation suppressing interest rates." Supply shocks push oil prices up, delaying expectations for rate cuts. BTC is fluctuating around 77,000, with the market showing muted reactions to verbal threats. The real variable is whether the sanctions can cause actual supply losses. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; you can savor it. #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 $BTC $ETH $BZ After gold broke through $4600, a traditional view is being challenged:
"Gold has no interest, so the opportunity cost of holding it long-term is very high."
This statement certainly made sense in the past.
But when investors start worrying about government debt, currency purchasing power, and long-term fiscal discipline, whether an asset pays interest may no longer be the only criterion.
Because the returns from bonds essentially come from taking on sovereign credit and inflation risks.
The biggest feature of gold is precisely that: it does not require anyone to promise to pay you back in the future.
This is also why, with gold rising to today’s levels, I believe it’s no longer just ordinary safe-haven demand behind it, but part of the capital is rethinking "what truly is a risk-free asset with no counterparty risk."
Of course, chasing the price above $4600 also carries increasing risk.
Having a sound asset logic does not mean every price is worth buying.
This is also the most confusing part of investing:
Being bullish on an asset in the long term and deciding whether to chase it today are two completely different questions.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh directly says, ETH surged from 1900 to 2550 in this wave, gaining 30% in a week, even stronger than BTC. But fast gains come with fast breathing; after touching 2550, it was slammed back near 2400—a typical "too fast a pull requires a shakeout."
How solid is the data? ETH rose 29.8% last week, outperforming BTC's 22.9%. On August 19, it surged 17.5% in a single day, jumping from 1917 straight above 2250. This is the first time since mid-April. The ETH/BTC ratio rebounded to 0.031, and funds started flowing into altcoin leaders.
Three things exploded simultaneously. First, spot Ethereum ETFs had a weekly net inflow of $697 million; second, shorts were liquidated for $1.69 billion over three days, turbocharging the rally; third, US Treasury repos suppressed yields, weakening the dollar and giving risk assets a collective breather. Exchange ETH supply dropped 15% this month, with staking exceeding 42 million coins, so sell pressure has indeed decreased.
So why didn't 2550 hold? The daily RSI hit 86, severely overbought. Price ran 5.5% above the Bollinger upper band, making short-term chasing less cost-effective.
What’s next? 2440-2510 is the first hurdle; only by reclaiming this range can we look toward 2550-2750. Support lies at 2210-2130; breaking below means weakness, with short-term consolidation between 2400-2500! $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 AI arms race faces a critical test: from frantically buying shovels to delivering profits, who is clearly exposed?
Led by Nvidia, AI industry giants like Salesforce and CrowdStrike have been releasing financial reports intensively. The market's focus has completely shifted from the arms race of capital expenditure on computing power to the harshest commercialization scrutiny: after burning so much money, when will real profit growth be realized?
The two ends I pay most attention to are precisely Nvidia and Salesforce. Nvidia represents the peak prosperity of upstream computing power, while enterprise software is the touchstone to test whether end customers are willing to continuously pay for AI Agents. If upstream chip shipments continue to explode but downstream software cannot show increased revenue per customer and net profit conversion, the valuation logic of the entire industry chain will face a brutal re-evaluation.
This differentiation is a necessary process to separate the genuine from the false. Whether it is US tech giants or the crypto AI track, the phase of blindly hyping concepts is over, and capital is irreversibly flowing to absolute leaders with real scenarios, positive unit economics, and sustainable cash flow barriers.
Which AI financial report are you most focused on? If industry performance continues to diverge, will you stick with computing hardware or shift to high cash flow applications?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% A simple and easy-to-understand long-term price formation mechanism for gold and crypto. Gold on the left, crypto on the right!
The short-term price fluctuations of gold are very difficult to predict, and it is even more impossible for unregulated and manipulated crypto (recent pump driven by Trump paid groups). However, the long-term price (in USD) formation mechanism is relatively simpler and can be summarized in three points:
a. Interest rates: Gold itself is a non-yielding asset, so its price is inversely proportional to the Federal Reserve's interest rates. This is also why recent rate cut expectations have strengthened gold.
b. The size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the inflation rate: The larger the balance sheet, the more severe the inflation, and the lower the credit of each unit of the dollar. As a supranational currency that cannot be printed, the price of gold rises. Interested friends can look into the multiples of the Fed's balance sheet growth and gold price increases since the gold standard was abandoned last century.
c. Faith: Humanity's belief in gold has lasted thousands of years and transcends nations and races. Otherwise, relying solely on industrial and decorative uses cannot support the current gold price. Faith underlies gold on the left and crypto on the right.
The importance ranking of these three factors is: c > b > a. The ones that can guide allocation are b and a, which also explains why gold prices have risen over the past three years despite rising US dollar interest rates: factor b outweighs a.
The above three points also apply to crypto. In the future, faith in crypto will far exceed that of gold + sol. Gold on the left, crypto on the right In the last week of August, AI trading faces a real test
The market is moving from the first phase of storytelling to the second phase of realization. With high U.S. Treasury yields and financing costs, investors are no longer satisfied with the AI concept alone but are starting to calculate investment returns (ROI) precisely
🪁 Three core focuses this week
▶️ Nvidia earnings report
Not only must it exceed expectations, but also watch the progress of Blackwell shipments, the sustainability of cloud providers' CapEx, and gross margins. Strong guidance will boost the sector, while a lack of new catalysts may lead to valuation compression
▶️ July PCE inflation
If the data cools down, it will ease valuation pressure on growth stocks; if it rises, it will intensify concerns about high interest rates
▶️ Jackson Hole meeting
Focus on Fed rate cut signals and macroeconomic trends
🪁 Future trends and differentiation
Valuation expansion driven by capital before will shift to performance-driven growth. The AI theme will not disappear but will see increased differentiation
▶️ Favor: foundational infrastructure with orders, cash flow, and barriers; leading chipmakers, optical modules, power supplies, and cooling
▶️ Avoid: pure concept and small-cap AI stocks lacking performance support
💡 The key is not to bet on Nvidia's short-term price movements but to confirm whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is continuing to accelerate or entering a verification phase. If earnings and inflation align, the market will see a new round of recovery. Otherwise, short-term adjustments will continue
DYOR #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in
$BTC This wave of Bitcoin's rise is not driven by a large number of new buyers actively purchasing coins; the core reason is that a large amount of leveraged short positions had accumulated previously. After the price broke through a key level, it triggered a chain of forced liquidations, creating passive buy orders that pushed the price up faster and faster.
Previously, there was a long period of range-bound consolidation with a consensus bearish market sentiment, many people opening shorts, funding rates persistently negative, and short positions very crowded.
A small-scale breakout of key resistance first blew out a batch of the closest high-leverage short positions. Closing short positions = market buying BTC, which itself is buying pressure.
This buying pressure continued to push the price higher; the next batch of short positions reached forced liquidation prices, continuing to close positions and buy → forming a positive feedback loop of rising and exploding prices.
Once the dense short positions are fully liquidated, the upward momentum naturally diminishes.
Secondary and tertiary driving factors (why this particular timing for the rally)
Macro liquidity catalyst (ignition)
US long-term bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, US tech stocks strengthened, and risk appetite rebounded. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, benefits from a favorable liquidity environment, providing an excuse for the breakout.
Regulatory/expectation sentiment support
US crypto regulatory expectations marginally improved, market pessimism about policies was repaired, and some funds were willing to replenish risk exposure. Fundamental Research Report $BLAST / Blast (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Getting straight to the point: Blast ($BLAST) overall score 56/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, token value transmission still needs observation.
Fundamental breakdown: Blast (token $BLAST), L2/sidechain sector. Focuses on Pacman L2 native yield. Benchmarked against ARB, OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas spikes, TPS limits, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents occur. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $6.2K, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Blast $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. FDV, Blast $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Annual revenue, Blast $6.2K, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Blast undisclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 483481.1x, FDV divided by revenue 676873.5x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 56/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitThe overall trend of ETC is relatively flat. As a long-established PoW asset, it has the foundation of hash power and miner ecosystem, but its competitiveness in applications, developers, and new narratives is limited. When ETH strengthens, ETC sometimes gains sentiment linkage, but their fundamentals and capital logic are not completely aligned. Without new catalysts such as mining, network upgrades, or ecosystem cooperation, ETC is likely to mainly follow the broader market. The key for the short term is whether trading volume can continue to recover. $ETC$SOL is not lacking narrative now, just a good price!
Solana launches governance vote to double the proposed deflation rate.
Points to watch: The plan is to increase the inflation decline rate from 15% to 30%, expecting to reach a terminal inflation of about 1.5% in approximately 3 years instead of the originally planned 6 years; in the next 6 years, it is expected to reduce issuance by about 18.9 million SOL, which translates to roughly $1.5 billion less supply under the current model.
My view: This is a long-term positive for SOL valuation, but in the short term, don’t treat “deflation” as a pump button. The key cost is reduced staking rewards, pressure on profits for some small validators, and there are already institutions publicly opposing this proposal.
In terms of strategy, you can accumulate SOL in batches when it pulls back to key support; if the vote passes and there is a volume breakout, add more; if the news is priced in and the price falls, wait for a second opportunity.As of 16:00 on August 24, $ZEC
1. Position and Long-Short Distribution
Total positions: approximately 138,800 ZEC (nominal value about 117 million USDT), with position volume at a recent historical high.
Long position ratio: about 21.88% (calculated from a long-short ratio of 0.28; very few long accounts, but average position size per account is very large, indicating high concentration of longs by whales/institutions).
Short position ratio: about 78.12% (short accounts dominate absolutely, with retail investors collectively aggressively shorting).
2. Chip Distribution and Range Proportion (Three Major Ranges)
Based on recent active buy-sell volume and K-line price density model from 07/25 to 08/24, chips are mainly distributed in the following three ranges:
1. Low-level accumulation zone (460 - 550 USDT): 25% (early main forces and some long-term bulls' ambush zone).
2. Rally turnover zone (550 - 750 USDT): 35% (market acceleration period, intense long-short battles and retail entry zone).
3. High-level distribution and lock-up zone (750 - 889 USDT): 40% (core zone of recent surge in position volume, massive chips accumulated here).
3. Retail Behavior Dynamic Analysis
Main retail chip range: 775 - 850 USDT.
Retail entry peak range: 800 - 835 USDT (between 08/23 - After the sharp rise in BTC·ETH, caution at the peak, and the possibility of entering a short volatility range. Why is the gap between the superficial trend and the actual position risk currently the widest? The original poster acknowledges the upward momentum of BTC and ETH but believes that the rapid pace of the rise actually increases the likelihood of a quick correction. The main concern is a scenario where, during a large candle—i.e., a volatility spike linked to short liquidations—the price suddenly plummets. This perspective is not a simple directional prediction but stems from differences in capital behavior. What happened? The poster sees the possibility of BTC retracing to about $68,000 and ETH to about $2,000, but emphasizes that this may not be the end of the trend, rather a process for an intraday rebound followed by a renewed rise. He plans to enter a short position with a stop loss set, fixing the loss limit at $2,460 to test the scenario. Additionally, since the accumulated profit from existing long positions is sufficient, even if a stop loss occurs, it would not be a loss from an overall profit perspective 📊【8.24 Bitcoin】58k is the sharply increasing probability bottom for this round——Action
Brothers, I've been playing jungle and researching quantification for the past two weeks, debugging tirelessly, which caused me to miss writing one weekly and monthly report. Unexpectedly, the main base camp suddenly caught fire, to the point that I have to re-examine the original plan.
Based on the currently known data, the time left for Bitcoin is running out. The left-side thinking needs to shift to right-side thinking. It's time to revise the original expectation and activate Plan B. When hit, stand at attention; when significantly deviating from the original expectation, review, analyze, and summarize.
The main factors behind last week's surge:
1. Treasury Secretary Bassett's expansion of US debt repurchase (liquidity improvement)
2. Trump's statement that the US is considering purchasing a "substantial" amount of Bitcoin (potential massive buy order expectation)
3. Epic massive short squeeze creating a short-covering rally (key reversal of bearish momentum at the end)
4. The interest rate hike expectation for the year dropped sharply to almost none (improved macro environment)
Now, my personal view on this surge (DYOR) 👇:
From the divergence of CVD and OI, this rapid rise from 65k to 79k was mainly driven by spot market leading to shorts being passively forced to close continuously. This contrasts with the end of 2022 when CME's massive futures dominated a violent pump to quickly escape the cost zone. This means this wave is a solid spot long-term capital buy-in, not short-term leveraged funds, making it more likely to stay in the market, thereby further increasing the probability that 58k is the bottom for this round [Tang Seng Trader's Notes] $BABA 115! The HKD 80 billion placement bad news is fully priced in, and the big short-sellers cursing are actually the safest!
When the big shorts stomp and curse, it is often the loudest bell signaling the bottom.
The news is mixed. On the negative side, Alibaba announced a placement of 710 million shares at HKD 112.70 each, raising HKD 80 billion entirely for AI infrastructure construction. This is the largest follow-on offering in Hong Kong stock market history. Michael Burry has sold all his Alibaba shares and switched to JD.com, saying "I won’t consider it unless the stock price halves."
But looking closely, the placement price of HKD 112.70 is only an 8.37% discount to last Friday’s closing price, with actual share dilution under 4%. More importantly, this placement was oversubscribed nearly 3 times, exceeding HKD 200 billion, with sovereign and long-term funds subscribing over 40% — sovereign funds are aggressively buying while retail investors panic sell. Who is right?
Personal view: Burry has been bearish on Alibaba for a long time, and his selling often serves as a contrarian indicator. The HKD 80 billion AI investment is a long-term positive; the short-term dip created is a golden buying opportunity. The stock price has already fallen below the placement price of HKD 112.70, so the cost basis of bottom-fishing institutions is higher than the current price.
Strategy: For conservative investors, buy in batches after a steady pullback to 113-114; for aggressive investors, buy at the current price; increase positions if volume breaks through 116.
With sovereign funds competing for 40% of the shares, do you think it’s a pie or a trap? Keep an eye on Tang Seng! #阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ The $TRUMP team just transferred 3.837 million coins to OKX yesterday, worth about $9.33 million.
At dawn today, they sold 1.1 million coins through one-sided liquidity, exchanging for 2.94 million USDC at an average price of $2.68.
In the past 24 hours, team-related wallets have transferred at least 6.45 million TRUMP to OKX, with a total value exceeding $15 million.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap The load-bearing wall emits cracking sounds at night. On August 21, the international gold price rebounded sharply like a steel beam bent under pressure for too long—breaking through the $4,600 per ounce mark, with a weekly gain of nearly 5%. Meanwhile, the yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds remained stubbornly high, like cracks on the surface of a load-bearing wall covered with mortar, while the structural engineer has already heard the internal steel reinforcements groaning.
In our industry, there is a strict rule: the load path must be clear and traceable. No matter how fancy the design sketch is, if you cannot calculate a complete load transfer path to the foundation, it must be sent back for revision. The current situation in the bond market is like the foundation being buried in a softened fill layer caused by debt monetization. Dalio sees this clearly—he advises investors to reduce bond allocations, increase gold holdings to 10-15%, and hold some Bitcoin as a hedge. Translated into structural terms: the old load-bearing wall is fatigued, and the new blueprint must rearrange the support system.
What is gold? Gold is like a large raft foundation slab—high density, stable self-weight, and controllable settlement. It does not pursue fancy facades or intricate joints; its sole purpose is to provide a place for the sixty floors above to stand. But its load-bearing capacity limit is clearly stated in the survey report; you cannot expect it to simultaneously support the entire financial system’s safety redundancy. The bond market, priced by sovereign credit, has its "load design value" repeatedly bent by fiscal deficits and monetary credit overdrafts. The old practice of blindly marking "safe" can no longer pass the review of the design approval center.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is like a new composite material—lightweight, high strength, good ductility, and construction techniques still to be tested over time. It is not the concrete column in traditional blueprints, but in seismic zones and areas of geological mutation, it can provide deformation space that traditional structures cannot. Some criticize its rough joints and short construction history, but once the overall structure enters the elastoplastic stage, you will find ductility more life-saving than stiffness.
What we are witnessing now is essentially a structural transformation. The cracks in U.S. dollar credit are extending, fiscal pressure is causing the "risk-free rate" concrete protective layer to peel off in patches, and Dalio’s warning of "debt monetization" is just a bold red annotation in the structural review report: this component has exceeded its design service life. The simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin indicates that capital is orderly withdrawing from the old load-bearing system, seeking new benchmark calibration. Can bonds still maintain their safe-haven role? It depends on whether they can pass the "safe floor" level reinspection. But in the structural survey diary in my hands, the upper right corner of that blueprint has already been stamped "not approved" by the review agency.
The building will not collapse overnight, nor will the cracks heal themselves. The construction team has already relaid lines at the edge of the foundation pit—materials once labeled "non-sovereign assets" are now solidifying into a new foundation within the concrete. And in the annotation column of the old load-bearing wall, only one clear small note remains: strictly prohibited from further loading. #gold4600vsbondsLast week, Uniswap trading activity burned over $2.4 million worth of UNI, setting a new weekly record.
At the same time, the value of UNI burned exceeded $1 million for four consecutive weeks for the first time in history.
The single-week burn value of over $2.4 million corresponds to 640,000 UNI, which is the second highest level historically from a coin-denominated perspective.
The Meme + RWA craze sparked by Robinhood Chain has to some extent stimulated Base & Coinbase.
For Uniswap, this can be considered a windfall; Base and Robinhood Chain are the second and third largest chains for UNI burn after Ethereum.Still thinking about a rebound? First, protect your own wallet!
$TRUMP is currently priced around $2.4, down 4.1% in 24H, but there was a clear concentrated sell-off early this morning. In the past two days, it surged sharply from around $1.4 to over $3, with short-term funds taking heavy profits; more importantly, after the unlock on 8/18, historical data shows that in recent unlocks, the price dropped about 6.1% on average within 10 days. The next unlock on 9/18 will release 28.69 million tokens, about 2.9% of the total supply.Money can find its way back, but people can't find a reason to return! U.S. debt repurchase has driven BTC to surge 20% in a few days, with ETF net inflows of $2.61 billion in a single week, signaling a massive return of capital. However, monthly active addresses on-chain have dropped 18% year-over-year, and open-source developers have declined from a peak of 45,000 to 28,000. The funds have returned, but the true industry participants are disappearing.
The current crypto space has undergone four profound demographic shifts. Understanding these four transitions is key to grasping the essence of today's market.
First migration: From self-custody wallets to custodial exposure
In the last bull market entry: download MetaMask, write down 12-word mnemonic phrases, and believe "Not your keys, not your coins."
In this bull market entry: open a brokerage, directly buy IBIT, never generate a private key in a lifetime, unaware of Gas fees, and never sign an on-chain transaction.
The total size of U.S. spot crypto ETFs is $110.3 billion, with 80% of funds coming from ordinary retail small accounts, not Wall Street institutions.
These holders leave no on-chain traces, do not participate in governance, and do not use DApps.
Thus, the market shows the most contradictory phenomenon: the number of passive holders rises, while on-chain active addresses simultaneously decline.
The number of crypto asset holders has completely decoupled from real on-chain activity.
They treat BTC as a small allocation in their asset portfolio, indifferent to decentralization, focusing only on asset returns.
Second migration: From reckless leveraged speculation to limited risk exposure
On October 10, 2025, the largest leveraged liquidation in crypto history occurred, with a single-day total of 190$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
Current market status of btc: After a rebound wave, it is consolidating at a high level, surging close to 80,000 USD before facing resistance and pulling back. Now it is fluctuating back and forth in the 76,000-78,000 USD range, which is a shakeout phase after the positive news has been realized. The previous surge was mainly due to: Trump's crypto-friendly expectations + US Treasury repo expectations + shorts being forced to cover positions.
However, the positive factors remain but with uncertainties
• ETF has had continuous capital inflows recently; institutions are indeed buying;
• The market is betting on the Senate passing crypto legislation in September, but the bill may not pass, and if it falls short of expectations, a sharp drop is likely;
• The US Treasury repo will officially launch on September 9, currently it is just speculative hype.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC Mid-term Trend (1-3 months, September-November, mainly focusing on the Federal Reserve + regulatory bills)
Bullish Supporting Factors
1. Macro liquidity expectations easing
The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes were dovish, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to 30%-35%, and the market pricing in rate cuts by the end of the year; the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, suppressing U.S. Treasury yields and lowering the holding cost of yield-free assets like BTC. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest level since the pandemic, strengthening the logic of anti-devaluation allocation.
2. Improved expectations for U.S. regulatory policies
Trump met with crypto industry executives, publicly promoting the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," and the SEC plans to establish a crypto asset compliance safe harbor. Market expectations for industry regulation are heating up, boosting institutional allocation willingness.
3. Extremely solid chip structure (the biggest confidence for the mid-term)
Long-term holders control 83% of circulating BTC, the highest proportion since December 2023; profit-taking chips in the $60,000-$70,000 range account for only 19%, and high-level trapped chips have significantly decreased, greatly reducing the possibility of a deep crash. Selling pressure is much weaker than during the 2025 bear market phase.
Mid-term Core Risks (suppressing the height of the rally)
1. Repeated rebounds in inflation data: If PCE and CPI exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, leading to a collective valuation downgrade of risk assets;
2. Congressional vote on crypto bills falls short of expectations: During the September-October bill voting window, if harsh regulatory clauses are added, market sentiment will be quickly suppressed;
3. Excessive market leverage: After this rally, futures open interest has surged. Once negative news emerges, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations and a pullback.