Orbit Post Sitemap
Crypto Market Outlook for Next Week
$ETH $BTC
First, it’s important to understand that this rally is a violent rebound driven by Treasury liquidity intervention + short squeeze + spot ETF accumulation, not by interest rate cuts.
On the macro side: Federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, July CPI at 3.4%, market expectations for the September meeting are about 68% chance of no change, about 31% chance of a 25bp hike, and almost 0 chance of a rate cut.
Sentiment shifted from fear to greed in just five trading days, which is very risky. Historically, this combination of “unconfirmed macro + technical overbought + ETF pulse” often means the first wave of profits needs to be partially given back before it’s clear whether it’s a continuation or a false breakout.
👉 So for now, it’s best to wait for a pullback.
Next, focus on three key things:
1. Statements from Waller on August 27–29
Waller has replaced Powell, and August 27–29 will be his first major speech since taking office. Watch to see if he raises the probability of a rate hike in September.
2. Net inflows of spot ETFs
After the short squeeze ends, whether ETFs can maintain daily net inflows is a core indicator to judge if real money is buying #BTC after the rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH after reaching $2500, then consolidating $BTC has indeed reached a very critical position on the weekly chart this time. Historically, this area has often served as a resistance zone for bear market rebounds, so the 80,000 level is not just an arbitrary number but a position that the market truly needs to break through with volume and capital.
However, the biggest difference this time is that off-exchange funds have clearly started to participate. Spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, combined with a weakening US dollar and a decline in long-term US Treasury yields, the funding environment BTC faces is indeed better than in previous rebound rounds. Therefore, it is not appropriate to simply assume based on historical trends that "reaching this level must lead to a drop."
Technically, the weekly RSI has not yet entered extreme overbought territory. If volume can increase and hold above 80,000, the area between 85,000 and 88,000 USD can continue to be observed; conversely, if the rally fails and the weekly candle closes below 74,000, it indicates another failed breakout, and the market may re-enter a larger-scale consolidation.
So the best strategy now is not to guess but to wait for the market to provide answers: break through and hold above 80,000 before considering following; wait for a pullback to key support to stabilize before considering buying the dip.
Currently, a bullish bias is acceptable, but there is no need to heavily bet on a breakout at resistance. Going forward, focus on the weekly close, ETF capital flows, and macro data—these three signals are more important than one or two short-term candlesticks.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 #财报观察员: NVIDIA Leads, AI Returns Enter Validation Phase Family, Wednesday night is the real highlight — Nvidia's earnings report. Some even believe this is more noteworthy than Fed Chair Walsh's debut at Jackson Hole. Since the AI investment boom began, Wall Street has been waiting for this moment every quarter. The Bitcoin market jumped from 65,000 to 75,000, and AI chip stocks also rebounded accordingly. But why did chip stocks fall before? Because the market has begun to seriously ask one question: after investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI, when will it actually be recouped? This earnings report has already pushed expectations to the ceiling. Bloomberg consensus forecasts that Nvidia's Q2 revenue will reach $92 billion, a 96% year-on-year increase; Adjusted EPS was $2.09, nearly doubling. Data centers are expected to contribute $85.4 billion, up 107% year-on-year. Among them, hyperscale cloud providers accounted for 43.5 billion, and AI cloud and enterprise enterprises accounted for 41.7 billion. The company's official guidance is 91 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 75%. Institutions like Wade Bush predict 92.18 billion. The options market fluctuated about 6.2% after betting on earnings. But what the market truly worries about are these three things. First, exceeding expectations has become standard, but simply beating expectations is not enough. Morgan Stanley bluntly stated that simply beating expectations may not be enough to drive the stock price higher. The market should look at medium- to long-term logic. Second, major clients are developing their own chips. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are buying chips from you while manufacturing them themselves, which is a long-term headwind. Third, storage costs are soaring. AI server prices have risen by more than 15% due to memory costs, and cost pressures persistAfter BTC surged and then consolidated, ETFs continue to flow in. How should we view this market movement?
I believe the current consolidation leans more towards a strong accumulation phase rather than a topping signal.
Previously, after BTC's rapid rise, it moved sideways at a high level, which is essentially the market digesting profit-taking positions. What truly deserves attention is: the price hasn't significantly dropped, yet ETF funds keep flowing in.
This indicates a very important change:
Selling pressure is increasing, but buying demand is also continuously absorbing it.
Why is the continuous inflow of ETFs so important?
Part of the earlier rise came from short covering and sentiment-driven momentum.
But if BTC no longer rises rapidly and instead starts to move sideways while ETF funds still keep flowing in, it means the market is undergoing a high-level rotation.
Simply put:
Short-term funds → Taking profits
Medium to long-term funds → Absorbing the chips
If this process continues, it actually benefits the next upward move.
The most critical factor now is to watch the "sideways position."
If BTC can hold above the previous breakout zone:
Surge → Sideways → Pullback without breaking → ETFs continue to flow in
This is a healthier structure.
Because it means bulls have not clearly retreated despite the price rise.
Conversely, if we see:
Price sideways → ETFs start continuous outflows → Volume shrinks → Break below breakout level
Then we must be cautious that high-level funds are starting to take profits.
So, we cannot simply conclude the market is over just because it "can't rise further."
Three key signals to watch going forward:
① Whether ETFs continue net inflows
This is currently the most important capital indicator.
As long as ETFs keep absorbing spot chips, the nature of BTC's high-level consolidation leans more towards accumulation.
② Whether the previous breakout level can hold
The biggest fear after a breakout is falling back into the original consolidation range.
As long as key support is not effectively broken, the trend structure remains intact.
③ The direction of the next volume surge
High-level low-volume consolidation is not scary.
What truly determines the next phase is:
Whether volume surges upward or downward.
If volume breaks above the previous high again and ETFs continue to flow in, a new upward rally is likely to start.
My judgment:
Currently, I lean towards:
High-level consolidation ≠ Market end.
It can rather be understood as the market digesting the profit-taking from the earlier rapid rise.
If ETF funds can keep flowing in, after BTC completes the high-level rotation, there is still a chance to challenge higher again.
But blind chasing of the rise is not advisable here.
The most comfortable structure is not BTC continuously surging, but "rise—sideways—shakeout—rise again."
In short:
The price surged without a significant pullback, yet ETFs keep buying, indicating the market's absorption capacity still exists. What will truly determine the market's height next is not whether BTC can still rise, but whether institutional funds are willing to continue absorbing chips during the high-level consolidation. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #沃尔玛在美销售放缓，消费压力受关注
The boss has something to say
Walmart's earnings report superficially exceeded expectations, but the details tell a different story.
Revenue was $187.9 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.81, both higher than market expectations. The numbers look flawless.
However, U.S. same-store sales only increased by 2.6%, while the market expected 3.7% to 3.8%. That's a full percentage point short. The Q3 EPS guidance was also below expectations, causing the stock to drop 9% that day.
Walmart said nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds will be used to lower prices and improve customer experience. To translate: consumers can't bear it anymore, and Walmart has to use price cuts to retain customers.
Previously, Walmart benefited from inflation. Now it is starting to cut prices itself, indicating that the underlying consumer spending power is weakening. Retail sales in July fell 0.6% month-over-month, the largest drop since May 2025, which aligns with Walmart's data.
The PMI hitting a four-year high while Walmart's consumer demand is weak presents conflicting macro signals. A strong economy but weak consumption makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to make decisions.
For crypto, Bitcoin is still oscillating around 75,000. All long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. Weak consumer data is a reason for rate cuts, but strong PMI supports rate hikes. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Before PCE data and speeches from Fed officials, avoid heavy directional bets. Macro data continues to clash, so wait and see. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Account Position Divergence Radar
The side with more people does not necessarily have heavier positions; this chart specifically separates quantity and weight.
$SOXL bullish accounts have already formed the majority, yet the top holdings ratio is still below 1, indicating a clear misalignment between faction and position weight. Price fell over 15 minutes while OI increased, showing that market pressure was not relieved by the decline. The next step for the bullish side is not more accounts, but confirmation of the top position weights.
$DOGE accounts lean bullish, but top holdings lean bearish; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price and OI are falling in sync, with deleveraging currently the core focus. Exiting parties cannot rely solely on OI for judgment. If price rises but top holdings remain bearish, position measurement conflicts are likely during pullbacks.
$ZEC all accounts and top accounts lean bearish, but top holdings size leans bullish, showing account direction and position weight are opposite. A 15-minute rise with reduced positions looks more like short covering or overall withdrawal driving the move; new longs have not yet been confirmed. Until the top holdings ratio falls below 1, the bearish account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.Selling off 463 million DOGE, circulating shares surge 120%: Selling DOGE to fund AI, is it a desperate survival or a capital game? CleanCore sold all 463 million DOGE on the books, cashing out about $33.4 million — on the surface, it looks like CleanCore is turning an "air coin" into infrastructure computing power for the AI era. But if you only see the eye-catching label "selling DOGE for AI," you completely underestimate this company's ruthless decisiveness in the capital market, or rather, its cunning. DOGE is just a stepping stone; the real big move is "opening the floodgates." Selling DOGE for $33.4 million sounds like a lot, but for an AI business that burns money like water, spending tens of millions or even hundreds of millions on GPUs and building data centers, this amount is barely an entry ticket. What truly supports this AI gamble is its crazy fundraising in the secondary market: Stock issuance: directly raised about $100 million in cash by issuing shares. Circulating shares surge: As of August 20, the company's circulating shares jumped from 226 million to 502 million, an increase of 121.9%. Potential nuclear bomb: There are still 524 million warrants outstanding. If all these warrants are exercised, the total shares will exceed 1 billion — diluting existing shareholders' equity by nearly three-quarters. Reverse merger to boost valuation: MEME is outdated, AI is the real password. Why clear out DOGE at this critical moment? In the previous crypto boom, holding Meme coins might have added color to the stock price; but now the situation has changed.BTC and ETH: Both Are Bull Retracements, But Which One Has a Healthier and More Sustainable Pullback?
Recently, the crypto market collectively pulled back after a rally. BTC dropped from a high of $79,000 to around $76,000, while ETH retreated from $2,550 to near $2,400. Market opinions quickly diverged: some shouted that the bull market was ending and rushed to sell at the top, while others saw it as a healthy consolidation during an uptrend. The core of judging the nature of a pullback has never been about how much it fell, but about the quality of the pullback: whether volume and price align, whether support holds, and whether funds are fleeing. Although both are bull retracements, the health of BTC’s and ETH’s pullbacks differ greatly, and the subsequent momentum of their markets is worlds apart.
First, looking at BTC, this round of pullback shows typical characteristics of "volume contraction, solid support, and no fund outflow," indicating a healthy consolidation during an uptrend. In terms of magnitude, the maximum retracement from peak to trough is about 4%. Compared to the over 20% rebound in this rally, the pullback ratio is less than one-fifth, which falls within a normal technical correction range. More importantly, volume and price coordination: daily trading volume gradually shrank during the decline, only about 60% of the peak volume during the rally. Price falling with shrinking volume indicates selling pressure is gradually weakening, with no signs of panic-driven heavy selling.
The fund flow data further clarifies the situation. Although the inflow slope of spot BTC ETFs has slowed, the overall trend remains net inflow. Leading institutional products have not shown any single-day large net outflows; instead, when the price dipped to the $75,000-$76,000 range, clear institutional absorption appeared. On-chain data confirms this: the large trend of net BTC outflows from exchanges over the past two weeks has not reversed due to the pullback. Whales and institutions continue moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, indicating that the mid-to-long-term bullish logic of funds remains unchanged. The pullback is merely short-term profit-taking by floating chips, not a main fund exit.
The core reason for price pressure is the concentrated release of historical trapped positions in the $78,000-$82,000 range, combined with short-term profit-taking from low-entry positions. This is normal selling pressure during an uptrend, not a top signal. Technically, $75,000 is the core cost line for institutional accumulation this round and a short-term strong support level. As long as it is not effectively broken, the mid-term consolidation and upward trend pattern will remain intact.
Now looking at ETH, the pullback quality is clearly weaker than BTC, showing characteristics of "volume expansion on the decline, testing support, and loosening chips," leaning more toward profit-taking and rotation after an emotional peak. In terms of magnitude, the maximum retracement exceeds 6%, nearly 1.5 times that of BTC, with significantly larger volatility. The volume-price structure is also weaker: the decline is accompanied by volume expansion, with single-day peak volume close to the rally peak, indicating concentrated selling pressure, intense bulls vs. bears struggle, and poor chip stability.
The fund flow divergence is even more obvious. The net inflow scale of spot ETH ETFs is only about one-third that of BTC, with inflows further slowing during the pullback and highly concentrated in a single leading institutional product, lacking systemic industry-wide fund support. The derivatives market better reflects sentiment changes: during the pullback, the total ETH long liquidations across the network exceeded $600 million, accounting for over 70% of total crypto market liquidations, indicating clustered leveraged long positions were liquidated, and short-term speculative funds fled quickly. On-chain data also shows a slight net inflow of ETH to exchanges in the past week, contrasting with BTC’s continued net outflow, indicating short-term profit-taking chips are moving to exchanges preparing to sell on rallies.
Fortunately, the underlying staking fundamentals still provide a floor, with total network staking surpassing 42.6 million tokens, accounting for 35.3%, limiting deep downside from the supply side. However, the loosening of emotional chips at the top is a fact. Technically, the $2,380-$2,400 range is a short-term dense chip support zone; if effectively broken, the adjustment space will further open.
Overall, although both are bull retracements, their quality and momentum differ completely: BTC’s pullback is a normal consolidation led by institutions, with shrinking volume, support, and stable funds. The mid-term bullish logic remains intact, with hope to break new highs in consolidation. ETH’s pullback is a sentiment-driven profit-taking rotation, with volume expansion, large volatility, and loose chips, posing higher short-term adjustment risks. It will need new narrative catalysts to restart the uptrend.
In terms of strategy, BTC can continue to be treated with a mid-term allocation approach: hold the base position, accumulate in batches at support zones during pullbacks, and avoid changing direction lightly due to short-term volatility. ETH is more suitable for swing trading: take profits in batches at resistance levels, wait for pullback stabilization before considering buying dips, strictly control position size and leverage to avoid passive losses amid volatility. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating as Washington imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian oil buyers, traders, and financial channels. Secondary sanctions could further disrupt global oil flows. 🚨 Hormuz traffic has reportedly fallen sharply, with just 7 ships passing Friday and no large oil tankers or LNG carriers. Brent gained 6.4% last week to ~$93. For $BTC, the key risk is inflation: higher oil prices could delay rate cuts and pressure risk assets. The real test is whether sanctionsBitcoin’s 7% Pump Isn’t the Real Story
Bitcoin just ripped 7% to nearly $69.8K —its biggest one-day move since March.
But here’s the catch: this looked more like a short squeeze than a clean demand-driven breakout.
Nearly $1.37B in shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, with over $1B wiped out in a single hour. Then Treasury stepped in with plans to at least double long-end buyback support, pushing 30Y yields lower and making non-yielding assets like BTC relatively more attractive.
#DailyOrbit $xSPCX 136.97, only 1.5% above the IPO price of 135, down 39% from the peak of 226. In early August, it once dropped to 104.83, breaking below the issue price. The storyline of this stock is even more thrilling than a SpaceX launch.
Review: Listed on June 12 with an opening price of 150, surged to 226 four days later with a market cap touching 3 trillion, then the Colossus 2 lawsuit threatened a 45 billion Anthropic contract, leading to a continuous decline. The first financial report on August 4 showed TTM revenue of 23 billion +122%, but a net loss of 8.9 billion, with a forward PE of 105. The market voted with its feet, directly breaking through the issue price.
Now at 137, it sits right in the middle of the "faith zone." Bulls and bears are fiercely debating:
Bulls say: Starlink subscriptions have surpassed 10 million, growing at 2-3 million per quarter; launch business holds 90% market share; Starship entering orbit in H2 this year is a turning point in human spaceflight history; 35 analysts have an average target price of 213, with 56% upside.
Bears say: A company losing 8.9 billion annually, with a 1.86 trillion market cap and a forward PE of 105, is propped up only by narrative; the Anthropic contract lawsuit is unresolved; what if Starship explodes again?
My view: SPCX is not a short-term stock, but a faith holding for three to five years. If you believe in Starship, slowly accumulate around 135; if not, don’t touch it. There is no middle ground for this stock. Pre-market today is down 1.72%, don’t catch a falling knife in the short term. $ZEC Clearly Bearish: $850 is the absolute top for this round; chasing higher means taking the bag.
Four hardcore logics, all verifiable facts:
Core value is nominal and hollow
Zcash started with zero-knowledge privacy payments. Among the 13.61 million ZEC circulating on the network, only 1.31 million are actually using shielded addresses, accounting for less than 10%. The main feature's adoption rate is extremely low, the privacy narrative is just a marketing slogan, and the fundamentals lack substantial growth support.
Technical advantages completely lost
Once a benchmark project for zero-knowledge proofs, ZK technology is now widely adopted. ZK Layer2 and next-generation privacy public chains continuously divert users and funds. In recent years, aside from the Orchard upgrade, Zcash has had no landmark technological breakthroughs, development pace lags behind, and its influence in the sector continues to weaken.
Structural inherent bearish factors
The protocol takes a fixed cut from block rewards to fund ecosystem development, continuously releasing selling pressure into the market; meanwhile, the privacy sector has long been marginalized, lacking incremental capital inflows, and the market is purely a game among existing players. The volume of this rebound is decreasing step by step, with no new capital supporting high prices.
Strong technical resistance cannot be broken
$850 is a historically dense area of trapped positions; previous multiple rallies have been blocked and pulled back at this level. This round's rise lacks fundamental catalysts and is only passively driven by sector linkage, fundamentally unable to absorb the huge trapped positions above. Price reaching this level marks a phase top. If Musk were to promote Dogecoin now, the market would likely get lively for a while, but it probably wouldn't be easy for it to develop a truly independent trend.
First, let's talk about why there would still be a reaction in the short term. Musk is deeply tied to Dogecoin, from early Twitter memes to SpaceX accepting Dogecoin payments for merchandise. He is almost like an "unofficial spokesperson" for this coin. Whenever he speaks, retail investor sentiment, social media buzz, and short-term capital can instantly ignite, making it entirely possible to see a decent price surge within a few hours. This celebrity effect remains a rare trigger in the crypto market.
However, the problem is that the impact of his promotions has clearly diminished over the years. At the peak in 2021, a single tweet from him could send $DOGE soaring by dozens of percentage points, but later on, similar statements usually only cause brief spikes followed by rapid declines. The reason is straightforward: experienced retail investors have learned their lesson after several rounds of losses, institutional funds focus more on fundamentals rather than influencer effects, and the regulatory environment is much more sensitive than before. Promotion can create volatility but cannot generate sustained buying pressure.
As for an independent trend, Dogecoin itself needs strong logical support, such as real-world payment adoption, expansion of on-chain ecosystems, or favorable macro liquidity conditions. These are not things a single tweet can solve. Musk can bring traffic, but turning that traffic into a trend requires the right timing and conditions.
So the conclusion is clear: promotions cause spikes, but after the spikes, the market most likely returns to calm. Instead of treating it as a trading signal to chase, it's better to view it as a sentiment indicator to observe. This week's macro framework reference citation, today only need to focus on one thing — US-Iran dynamics
1. Whether the US economic sanctions on Iran will be implemented
2. How the Pakistani military's feedback in Tehran on the 1st is
This week's PCE reflects past inflation, while energy prices represent future inflation. At the current stage, the fluctuation function between energy prices and PCE is oil price 5%± fluctuation = core PCE ± 0.03%~0.05%
Therefore, this week's PCE and current crude oil prices should be viewed with the same weight, especially today. If the US imposes economic sanctions on Iran (TACO), crude oil prices will return to a downward trend, and inflation will shift toward optimistic expectations.
Conversely, if sanctions on Iran are implemented, and secondary economic sanctions on countries like China are designed, crude oil prices will rise, increasing inflationary pressure expectations.
Currently, after the US stock market opened, the intraday decline in energy prices stimulated bond yields to weaken, easing inflationary pressure in the short term. However, gold remains strong, US stock risk appetite contracts, and the market is still in a relatively cautious phase! This indicates that uncertainties remain high this week! #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 🚀"DeFi Leader AAVE: Deposits Surpass 30 Billion, Returning to Growth Track" --- Worth watching the DeFi sector at the start of the bull market.
AAVE rose over 60% this week, breaking $140, hitting a new high since February. Founder Stani Kulechov announced at the 30 billion deposit milestone: "Liquidity is back."
This is not hype; fundamentals are speaking.
1. Deposits at 30 Billion, DeFi Leader is Reviving
Aave's total deposits surpassed $30 billion, with Q3 growth at 30%. TVL rebounded from the annual low of $11.86 billion in June to $17.69 billion, a 21.6% increase in 30 days.
The protocol dominates the decentralized lending market with a 62.8% share of transaction volume, and cumulative lending volume exceeded $1 trillion, making it the first DeFi protocol to reach this milestone.
2. Aavenomics 3.0: Auto Buyback, Tokenomics Upgrade
Aavenomics 3.0 officially launched, with the core change being an automatic buyback mechanism — 100% of all protocol and GHO revenue is directly allocated to the DAO treasury, automatically executing AAVE buybacks.
Annualized protocol revenue is about $402 million, with historical cumulative fees exceeding $2.21 billion. The DAO can buy back approximately 292 AAVE tokens daily.
3. Institutional Funds Are Flowing In
V4 deposits grew from about $50 million in early May to over $400 million by mid-August. Institutional clients are served through the Horizon permission framework, with partners including VanEck, Ripple, Franklin Templeton, and others.
Grayscale's report points out that AAVE's current price is below fair value, with a baseline 12-month target price of about $175.
4. Technicals: Breakout Confirmed, But Short-Term Overbought
Price stands above all major moving averages; breaking $130 is interpreted as the start of a new upward wave. However, RSI has risen above 71, indicating an overbought region and increasing the probability of a short-term correction. Support levels are at $130 and $120-121, resistance at $142-150.
5. My View:
This AAVE rally is a narrative of DeFi fundamental recovery, not a speculative pulse. Long-term outlook is supported by institutional positioning plus Aavenomics 3.0 as dual catalysts, but short-term chasing is risky.
Consider entering after a pullback to $128-130 or $120-121 to confirm support, which is safer than chasing $140.
#AAVE #DeFi #Aavenomics3.0 #InstitutionalPositioning #Crypto$SPCX is repeatedly tugging below the $135 IPO price, with derivative sell pressure above $140 still clearly evident.
319 million shares of early restricted stock are set to enter circulation this week, putting spot liquidity through its first concentrated test since listing.
A massive capital expenditure of $18.369 billion this quarter has heightened caution over cash burn, while over $25 billion nominal short positions accumulated on the derivatives side simultaneously establish hedging locks above.
The market's weak risk appetite resonates with early shareholders' low-cost cash-out needs, gradually pushing the originally limited on-exchange support depth toward a vacuum.
If buying can complete sufficient turnover at the $135 level and recover with volume, the channel to test the $140 resistance zone will reopen; otherwise, a low-volume pullback will directly signal a failed rebound.
If selling pressure breaks through the $130 to $132 support band, forced liquidation of leveraged long positions may drive prices further down to the $125 area, but a quick rebound after breaking would temporarily close the downward channel.
As long as the spot price fails to form new share accumulation above the IPO price, derivative shorts' suppression of rebound space is unlikely to be disproved.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the net buy order absorption capacity at the $130 level amid ongoing release of unlocking selling pressure.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战Market Viewpoint: At this stage, heavy BTC holdings require extra caution
Many investors still hold large positions in Bitcoin, but considering the ETH/BTC exchange rate trend, this allocation logic deserves a fresh review.
Why am I not choosing to hold Bitcoin right now?
The core judgment is that in the next two to three years, Ethereum is very likely to outperform Bitcoin.
Observing the annual ETH to Bitcoin exchange rate, after years of continuous decline, the drop has significantly narrowed this year, with the candlestick pattern close to a doji, indicating a potential reversal.
Even if Ethereum cannot significantly outperform Bitcoin in the short term, the room for further significant underperformance is quite limited.
The price correlation between the two coins is very high, so pursuing a higher risk-reward ratio by prioritizing Ethereum allocation is a more reasonable approach.
Looking at Bitcoin’s own market, the price was around 62,000 at the beginning of August, then quickly surged to 80,000 in a short time; this rally’s foundation is not solid.
It’s like rapid weight loss relying on laxatives—most of what is lost is water, not actual fat. After the short-term appearance, there is a possibility of price retracement.
From a macro perspective, it’s hard to expect Bitcoin to enter a true bull market by 2027.
The underlying logic is not complicated: the overall risk asset environment next year is not optimistic. The annual signal for the US stock market is becoming clearer. I made a judgment in Q2: the US stock market can maintain high-level oscillation in Q3, with repeated tug-of-war from July to September; starting Q4, it will face downward pressure, and 2027 will see a larger-scale correction $BTC Arthur Hayes promotes Flop Network as bringing strong narrative premium, but the token FLOP is currently facing a direct conflict between the timing of machine settlement demand implementation and the liquidity barriers of general stablecoins.
The founder's black-or-white stance of either zeroing out or ranking in the top two for pricing has boosted high-risk appetite funds' willingness to gamble on this binary game token, with speculative positions concentrated on the tail premium driven by celebrity effect. This highly narrative-dependent chip structure is very vulnerable to shocks from macro liquidity tightening and risk asset deleveraging.
The key transmission mechanism for assessing FLOP's pricing power lies in the marginal buy-side support from market risk appetite for off-chain settlement assets, which takes priority over the specific penetration rate of agent computing power payments. The network effect of general stablecoins squeezing machine micropayment channels is a secondary transmission factor determining whether the chips are thoroughly settled.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption of overall valuation expansion of the AI concept and early realization of silicon-based payment demand. When the share of transactions settled on-chain by decentralized high-frequency micropayment protocols rapidly breaks through warning thresholds, the market will prioritize re-pricing dedicated settlement currencies, with funds concentrating from general stablecoin liquidity pools into FLOP chips.
If general stablecoins seamlessly penetrate and occupy the vast majority of transaction shares in machine micropayment scenarios on high-performance public chains, or if on-chain machine transaction volume continuously shrinks, this bullish logic will be invalidated.
The bearish scenario is driven by risk appetite decline and position liquidations triggered by inflation/release pressure. Once the celebrity effect marginally diminishes causing speculative funds to settle profits, and the real on-chain micropayment demand from AI Agents cannot fill the expanding chip supply, the token will face a binary downside risk of liquidity exhaustion and rapid collapse of the valuation system.
If the token secures large-scale long-term locked funds at the lower bound of the binary valuation, and the computing power network's high-frequency settlement capital continues to increase, the downtrend will be halted accordingly.
In the next 7 days, close monitoring is required on changes in on-chain micropayment transaction counts, the degree of general stablecoin share squeeze in similar micropayment channels, and the net inflow rate of high-risk appetite funds into binary game chips.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估On the chessboard, sacrificing the queen is never about conceding defeat but setting a trap; however, OpenAI's move here sacrifices the initiative for the entire midgame.
I am a grandmaster who doesn't focus on single moves but on the endgame twenty moves ahead. Q2 revenue of 6.7B, an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, is impressive; but the operating loss expanding from 9.3B to 12.3B is like charging forward with half your pawns only to find your king's wing leaking. Even more glaring is that Anthropic's revenue in the same period was 11.6B, doubling and even generating a small profit—using the opening theory you abandoned, they executed a beautiful Spanish Exchange.
The real key in this game isn't OpenAI's loss figures but the cautious step of "going public in 2027." Every grandmaster knows that caution isn't retreat but waiting for the opponent to reveal a flaw first. Yet by conceding space in the midgame, you effectively open the c-file for the opponent's heavy pieces to invade. An 18% quarter-over-quarter growth rate versus a 32% expansion in losses is a classic "kingside attack, queenside on fire" scenario. Every player has faced moments like this—you calculated a sacrifice attack but didn't anticipate the opponent had a low-tier Siberian Hedgehog defense ready.
Now look at the XPL token. The most dangerous piece on the board isn't the queen but the seemingly immobile knight—it jumps over obstacles to bite your hidden weaknesses. XPL's linked reaction is like the highly controversial a6 move in the Sicilian Defense, ostensibly a preparatory pawn but actually baiting the opponent into a draw. Now all the coordinated funds on the board are waiting for one signal: will OpenAI go public early? If growth accelerates and the timeline shortens from 2027 to sooner, it's like suddenly gaining a passed pawn—but remember, a passed pawn well-used becomes a queen; misused, it becomes a live piece gifted to the opponent.
Anthropic's small profit is even more lethal. It's like the opponent gaining a minor piece advantage, seemingly trivial but in the endgame, a minor piece advantage translates to 62 winning variations out of 128. What else can you hope for? Technical dominance built on losses? That's an opening trick, fooling only those spectators who watch the game through GIFs.
The chess clock is ticking. The CFO's all-hands letter essentially tells all watchers: we are still in deep thought. But grandmasters know deep thought often leads to bad moves. When the "strategic piece exchange" you spent forty minutes devising in the midgame is just a well-memorized variation to your opponent, you should realize—this game has already lost the kingside.
Now it's XPL's turn to move. Is the money behind it ready to exchange another piece or settle for a draw? There is no draw on the chessboard, only winners or deadlocks. #openaiq2losswidens2026.8.24: Summary of thoughts, I don't believe the crypto space here can produce a major trend market. Why? Even the US stock market can't produce a major trend, it's oscillating in a high-level range. Liquidity doesn't support staying in the crypto space continuously. I am more inclined to believe this is a wave of emotional capital harvesting orchestrated by interest groups around Trump, including Wall Street. They harvested and then retreated. They already knew what Trump was going to say at the meeting that night. Moreover, companies like Nvidia are also working hard to issue bonds. Do you think liquidity can support funds staying in $BTC $ETH here continuously? This is a wave of emotional short squeeze! Recording the planet, recording real trading!Scaffolding was dismantled halfway, the load-bearing wall didn’t collapse—but the floor slabs creaked.
On August 6, the first batch of 912M shares were unlocked. The market watched like spectators waiting for concrete to set, expecting cracks to immediately spread across the exterior walls. What happened instead? Prices didn’t fall but rose, climbing back above the $135 issuance price. It’s like a supertall building that, after removing temporary supports, still has its core tube standing straight, with settlement monitoring data better than expected. As someone who entered with the blueprints, I have to say: real structural testing is always done with staged loading, not a one-time press.
On August 20, these 319M shares are the second set of jacks.
To understand this level, you first need to grasp the load-bearing logic of unlocked shares. The chips held by early investors and employees aren’t ordinary bricks but prestressed steel strands embedded at the structure’s base. Their confidence in the company is the initial tension force of this building. When the first batch was released, the market assumed they would sell off like breaking down walls, but no one did—indicating these steel strands are well anchored, and owners have no impulse to withdraw funds overnight.
But this level isn’t my focus.
Going further up, the real load test is ahead. The remaining batches are still hanging on the tower crane hook; the locked inventory is like uninspected floor slabs—each waiting for its load date. Now the market asks, "Can AI, Starlink, and launch business absorb the floating shares?" This question is actually a false proposition. Have you ever seen a building collapse just because the floor area is large? Floor slabs only transfer loads; the real life-or-death factors are the stiffness of beams and columns and the bearing capacity of the foundation layer.
Back to the $XCH tokenized shadow asset, it’s like the architect’s model sandbox—all force analyses are simplified but enough to let you see the main load paths. Coupling effects won’t show on the blueprints but appear in the data cracks from wind tunnel tests. What you can read from the candlestick chart is the market’s aesthetic vote on facades and curtain walls, not structural safety.
The first batch didn’t break through, the second batch hesitated, and the third batch is still being poured.
Each unlocking layer is a redesign of stiffness for the existing structure. You can never use the previous load test results to predict the next failure load. Construction techniques, material batches, and environmental temperature and humidity are all changing. It’s like two towers with identical facades—one can withstand an 8-magnitude earthquake, the other shows glass curtain wall vibrations in a level 6 wind.
The only difference lies in the node design you can’t see. #spcxunlocks319m $2.6 billion entered the market, yet Bitcoin stalled at 79,000 — what’s next to watch?
$BTC 79,000, $ETH 2,500. A week ago, BTC hovered around 60,000, now it’s up 23% — Ethereum even surged 31%. The trigger is clear: the Fed doubled the scale of Treasury repos, directly pushing down US bond yields and the dollar, seen by the market as a form of "stealth QE." But the policy effect lasted only one day, with long-term bond yields rebounding immediately. The market is pricing in not a "problem solved," but "government forced to intervene."
On the capital side, last week ETF net inflows were $2.6 billion, but IBIT alone accounted for $1.1 billion, indicating institutional allocation rather than retail FOMO. Over $4 billion in shorts were liquidated; the rebound was driven by spot buying and short covering, but on the year, Bitcoin ETFs still saw a net outflow of $2.9 billion — a strong week isn’t enough to change the trend.
Technically, ETH is the only asset to break through key resistance at $2,371, while BTC stalled below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at $78,500. Short-term support lies at 73,300 and 71,250, with ETH support at 2,268. If volume contracts and stabilizes, turnover is healthy; a volume-driven breakdown calls for caution.
Next, watch three variables: whether the US Dollar Index can hold the 200-day moving average (99.1), whether long-term bond yields are truly controlled after September repos start, and progress on the CLARITY Act.
The trend hasn’t been falsified, but the risk-reward has shifted from "excellent" back to "neutral." The direction hasn’t changed; rhythm matters more than direction — let the market take a couple more steps, don’t rush to bet. 😌
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Yi Lihua's viewpoint can be distilled into three core judgments: the bull market trend has been established, ETH will outperform BTC, and a new AI-driven narrative is taking shape.
From the current market data, his judgments are not baseless.
Technical breakthroughs of BTC and ETH: On August 24, BTC broke through $78,000, with the daily chart strongly breaking above the 120-day and 200-day moving averages, and the weekly chart breaking above the 20-week moving average—Yi Lihua's previous judgment of the "end of the bear market" has been technically confirmed. ETH simultaneously broke through $2,500, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate rose from 0.028 at the beginning of August to 0.032, indicating that ETH is catching up with BTC's gains.
ETH's "excess return factor" relative to BTC: Ethereum spot ETFs outperform Bitcoin—by fund size, ETH ETFs had a net inflow of 3.19% in July, while BTC was only 0.34%, about 9.4 times less. ETH also has staking yield attributes; on August 22, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) attracted $20 million in a single week—showing the market's clear preference for yield-bearing crypto assets. The ongoing advancement of the Pectra upgrade and the resolution of the EIP-8363 community debate will also act as catalysts.
AICrypto: from "concept speculation" to "actual income": The AICrypto sector mentioned by Yi Lihua refers to crypto projects driven by AI Agents with real revenue models. Tokenized US stock trading volume on Robinhood Chain surpassed $1 billion for the first time, and coin-stock Memes are becoming the gateway connecting users to real stock tokens. SoftBank issued $6.3 billion in bonds at a 4.9% interest rate to bet on OpenAI, indicating that traditional capital is pouring into AI infrastructure at an unprecedented scale—much of this AI infrastructure will adopt crypto payments and tokenized settlements.
"No shorting in a bull market" trading discipline: Yi Lihua specifically points out that "shorting should not be done during a bull market trend," implying an emphasis on trading discipline—the current bears are resisting by exploiting weekend liquidity shortages, but once the trend forms, counter-trend operations carry extremely high risk. A Glassnode report points out that before the realized profit-loss ratio breaks above 2, any price rebound should be viewed as a local rebound rather than a fundamental market trend change—but the day of breaking above 2 is approaching.
Summary: Yi Lihua's judgments align closely with current market data. The technicals have confirmed a trend reversal, ETH is catching up with BTC, and AICrypto is moving from concept to implementation. Investors should note that the crypto market is highly volatile; even in a "bull market," sharp corrections will occur, so decisions should be made cautiously according to individual risk tolerance.
$BTC
$ETH Storage giants both fell sharply pre-market: overreaction or a cycle turning point?
SanDisk fell more than 5% pre-market, Micron nearly 4%, SK Hynix 3.5%, Western Digital nearly 3%. The entire storage sector weakened.
Three reasons:
First, Samsung's shareholder return plan fell short of expectations. Samsung announced a return plan of 90 trillion to 110 trillion KRW but lacked an immediate buyback commitment, causing its stock to plunge 9%, dragging down the whole sector. JPMorgan bluntly said the plan had "no positive surprise."
Second, industry research shows SanDisk and Kioxia's NAND technology generations have fallen behind Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
Third, weekend rumors suggested the Trump administration might allow Apple to source DRAM from ChangXin Memory and NAND from Yangtze Memory. But analysts consider this an "overreaction"—ChangXin is only certified for a low-sales Mac model, with zero iPhone certification, and yields are insufficient to support large-scale supply.
Micron's CEO recently said data center customer purchasing intent is about 150% of the company's committed supply, with demand exceeding supply by roughly 50%. Fundamentals haven't changed, but after such a big rally over the past year, any slight disturbance is magnified.
Historically, storage chips have cycled through sharp rises and falls. Can the AI narrative break this cycle?
$SNDK $MU Aggressively short $SNDK $SKHYNIX!! #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 All the news this week is bearish!!Publicly Listed Companies' Weekly BTC Net Purchases Surge 14-Fold, But the Biggest Buyer Is "Selling Shares to Hoard Cash"
---
📊 1. Overall Data: From $5.32M to $81.48M, a 1431.6% Surge
According to SoSoValue data, last week global publicly listed companies (excluding mining firms) had a total weekly net BTC purchase of $81.48 million, a 1,431.6% increase compared to the previous week's $5.32 million.
However, it must be noted: this "surge" is due to a low base effect. The previous week saw Strategy halt purchases and Metaplanet not buying for five consecutive weeks, causing net purchases by listed companies to nearly "drop to zero." In absolute terms, $81.48 million net purchases is not large—it reflects not an "institutional full-scale accumulation," but rather "the previous week was too quiet, and this week returned to normal."
🏦 2. The Biggest Player Strategy: No BTC Bought, Instead Cashed Out $2 Billion
Strategy was the biggest variable last week, but it was not on the "buying" side.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy did not increase its Bitcoin holdings, maintaining 840,447 BTC. During the same period, it sold 18.2611 million shares of MSTR common stock through its ATM program, netting $2.0065 billion.
Use of funds:
· $300 million to replenish USD Reserve
· $136.4 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares (1.4312 million shares)
· The remainder credited to a newly established USD Cash liquidity account
As of August 23, Strategy's USD reserves rose to $5.1 billion, with a USD Cash balance of $1.59 billion. The new USD Cash account can be used to purchase Bitcoin, repurchase stock or preferred shares, repay convertible bonds, etc.
As Bitcoin approached $80,000, Saylor chose to "sell shares to hoard cash" rather than "sell shares to buy BTC." This suggests he may be waiting for a better opportunity—or believes that at the current price, holding cash is more valuable than Bitcoin.
🔥 3. The Real Buyers: Led by Strive, Multiple Companies Increasing Holdings
Strive: $81.48 million to buy 1,110 BTC
Strive purchased 1,110 BTC at an average price of $73,409, with a total investment of about $81.48 million. As of August 21, total holdings rose to 21,356 BTC.
Metaplanet: Buying for Six Consecutive Weeks
This "Japanese version of Strategy" has bought Bitcoin for six consecutive weeks. Previously, it had not bought for five consecutive weeks—the trend has reversed from "stopped buying" to "six weeks of continuous buying."
Boyaa Interactive: Added 108 BTC with $7.35 million
Hong Kong-listed Boyaa Interactive purchased 108 BTC in Q2 at about $68,047 each, raising total holdings to 4,201 BTC.
Bitmine: Symbolic Purchase of 1 BTC
Ethereum asset company Bitmine announced on August 24 the purchase of 1 BTC, bringing total holdings to 210 BTC.
📈 4. Signal Interpretation: What Are They "Racing Ahead" For?
1. Institutions Are "Pricing In" Bitcoin at $80,000
Strive bought 1,110 BTC at $73,409, Boyaa Interactive bought 108 BTC at $68,047. Institutions continue accumulating in the $70,000 range, with increasing purchase scale.
2. Strategy Is "Gearing Up" Not "Withdrawing"
Saylor cashed out $2 billion and hoarded $6.69 billion in cash ($5.1B USD Reserve + $1.59B USD Cash)—his largest "ammunition stockpile" ever. Once he deems the timing right, he can launch large-scale purchases at any time.
3. The Bitcoin Treasury Model Is "Spreading"
From Strategy to Metaplanet, from Strive to Boyaa Interactive—the model of publicly listed companies "buying Bitcoin as reserves" is shifting from "one dominant player" to "multiple contenders."
💎 5. Summary
Weekly net purchases by publicly listed companies surged from $5.32 million to $81.48 million, a 1431.6% increase. But behind this data, the real focus is: the largest player Strategy did not buy but hoarded cash; the second largest player Strive is buying; companies in Japan and Hong Kong are following suit.
As Bitcoin fluctuates near $80,000, institutional divisions emerge: some cash out, some accumulate, some wait. Between "selling shares to hoard cash" and "continuous accumulation," institutions are employing different strategies to compete for the same future. And Strategy, with $6.69 billion in cash reserves, could be the game-changer at any moment.
$BTC $MSTR $GLD is up 13.8% in a month. $UUP is down 2.4%. $TLT is down 1.4%, while $SPY is up 3.6%.
This is a structural repricing, not clean risk-on. If $HYG joins $TLT lower over the next few weeks, the risk is rates transmitting the shock into equities.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Brothers, I just took a look at BTC's weekly chart, and it's currently right at the top position where previous bear market rebounds peaked, with the red line clearly drawn.
In previous times reaching this point, the second week always saw a direct drop, without exception. But this time, I think it might be different. The biggest difference is that previous rebounds were driven by on-exchange funds playing among themselves, while this time it's off-exchange funds putting in real money.
BlackRock and others are not here for charity; last week alone saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion, with IBIT taking in 1.3 billion. This level of buying pressure never happened in previous rebound rounds. Plus, US Treasury repos have pushed down long-term yields, the dollar is weakening, and funds are flowing into alternative assets. The macro environment is completely different from those previous times. Also, the Fed's September rate cut is highly likely now. Bitcoin currently benefits from the dual narratives of "rate cut benefit + digital gold." Whether it can break through this level is really hard to say.
From a technical perspective, the weekly RSI is about 68, not yet in the overbought zone. If there is a real volume breakout, I think seeing 85,000-88,000 is possible. Of course, if the weekly close candle body falls below 74,000, it might follow the old script again.
Personally, I'm leaning bullish now, but I won't add positions here. I'll wait for a confirmed breakout or pullback confirmation. Brothers who already have positions can hold some, but don't bet everything here.
Let's wait for the revised GDP data on Thursday and the PCE on Friday before making further moves.🚨 CAPITAL IS STARTING TO ROTATE
The latest ETF flows show institutions aren’t just buying $BTC.
Aug. 21 saw roughly:
🟠 $BTC: $307.5M
🔵 $ETH: $184M
🟣 $SOL: $10M
Meanwhile, $BTC + $ETH ETFs attracted ~$2.6B last week—the strongest combined inflow since October.
If this persists, the bigger story could be capital rotation from majors into higher-beta crypto.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOrbitTopics BTC surged from around $60,000 to around $78,000, surging over 20% in just a few days. Many people's first reaction was: "Is the bull market back?" But if you break down this rally, you'll find that this time it's not just a sentiment pull, but rather macro liquidity + ETF funds + bear stamping + whales buying back together. What truly deserves attention is that the driving force behind BTC's rise is shifting from "bears forced to buy" to "spot funds actively buying." 1. The first step on the gas: The U.S. Treasury's move unexpectedly ignites the market. The most easily overlooked catalyst for this rally actually comes from the macro market. Recently, the U.S. Treasury has expanded its long-term U.S. Treasury repurchase operations, prompting the market to reassess the future liquidity environment. Simply put: Treasury buybacks of long-term Treasury bonds → easing long-term bond pressures → improved market liquidity expectations → providing support for risk assets. CoinDesk pointed out that last week's sharp rise in BTC was closely related to the U.S. Treasury's buyback operation and triggered over $3 billion of short positions being squeezed during the rally's launch. This is also why this rally was particularly fast. Because the market doesn't buy up bit by bit. Instead: price rises → short stop loss → short positions close to buy BTC → price continues to rise → more short positions are forced to close out. This forms a typical short squeeze. 2. The second force: BTC spot ETFsETH’s stronger 24-hour gain while BTC holds near $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. A test of $2,500 matters, but confirmation requires ETH to keep outperforming without BTC losing its footing. Macro conditions still argue for restraint. Treasury buyback signals may support liquidity at the margin, while renewed Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure. For now, I would treat crypto s shift.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap BTC holds steady at 78,000, ETH breaks through 2,500, this week really convinced the bears
Brothers, the market this week is pretty fierce.
BTC surged from 62,000 to 79,500, a 23% weekly increase, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023. Today's quote is 78,262, up 1.34% in 24 hours. ETH is even stronger, rising from 1,900 to above 2,520, a 31% weekly increase, breaking through 2,500 today, up 2.26% in 24 hours.
The core driver behind this is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's big move—long-term Treasury repo scale increased from 2 billion to 4 billion. US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed into BTC and gold. Additionally, with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act, shorts being liquidated in a chain reaction, and ETF net inflows of 1.9 billion in a week.
The biggest difference from before is that the correlation between BTC and US stocks has dropped to nearly zero, while the correlation with gold has risen to 0.5, confirming the "devaluation trade" logic.
However, RSI has already reached the overbought zone, so be cautious chasing highs in the short term. My ETH short position is still holding; I plan to see if 2,550 can hold.
Brothers, did you profit from this wave or miss out? Let's chat in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 3. According to the current situation, the United States is basically powerless to reduce the national debt level; the national debt is basically unsolvable. So what will happen next?
Historical experience: The 30-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% has only occurred twice in the past 30 years, in 2000 and 2007, and both times major financial crises erupted afterward. But the "causes" were different each time, and the outcomes were also different.
The key point is the 2007 financial crisis.
This is the most similar case to the current situation. In June-July 2007, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3%, almost exactly the same as the current 5.34%.
In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis officially broke out; Bear Stearns' hedge funds collapsed. In March 2008, Bear Stearns was acquired by JPMorgan Chase.
In September 2008, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, triggering a global financial tsunami.
From the high point in October 2007 to the low point in March 2009, the S&P 500 fell 57%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped from 5% all the way down to below 2% by the end of 2008 (safe-haven funds poured in). The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 0 and started QE.
Global capital is now extremely sensitive, especially to tech stocks, and risks are gradually accumulating. Gold may be the final refuge. From 2000 to 2003, gold rose from 270 to 390 (+44%), and from 2007 to 2011, it rose from 650 to 1920 (+195%). Every time US Treasury credit is questioned, gold is the ultimate beneficiary.
At this time, one must be cautious and prudent 这几天的盘面已经很清楚了：市场确实转强，但已经从“闭眼做多”进入“验证行情成色”的阶段。 $BTC 从6.3万附近一路打到7.9万，你截图里最新已经到 79,300附近；$ETH 更猛，从1,900附近直接拉到 2,514。这轮上涨背后并不只是情绪，美国长债收益率回落、美元走弱、流动性预期改善，再叠加空头集中回补，形成了一次典型的“宏观+资金+逼空”共振。过去几天美国现货BTC ETF也重新出现明显净流入，说明机构资金确实开始回来。 但这里有个细节必须注意：第一阶段最容易赚的钱，可能已经赚完了。 $BTC 日线KDJ已经进入明显高位，短线又重新逼近8万整数关口；真正重要的不是今晚能不能插针80,000，而是突破以后能不能站住。我的观察区间放在 $BTC 77,000—78,000：回踩守住，后面才有资格继续看80,000—82,000甚至更高；如果冲高之后快速跌回76,000以下，这轮行情里“空头回补”贡献的那部分力量就值得警惕。近期上涨确实包含了大规模short squeeze，所以不能简单把过去几天的斜率一直往后画。 反而我现在更关注 $ETH。 $ETH 重新摸到2,500附近，Last week BTC rose 23.6%, marking the second strongest single week since early 2021; ETH rose 31.3%; crypto ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $2.62 billion, the strongest since October 2025.
The weekly dollar gain set a record—BTC rose $14,264 in one week, the largest absolute dollar increase in any single week in history.
Three catalysts overlapped in the same week:
The Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repos, with the 30-year yield dropping 9 basis points in one day, and the dollar falling to a three-month low—this was the trigger; Trump convened crypto executives at the White House, publicly pushing for the CLARITY Act to pass before August—this was the narrative; $2.7 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated—this was the fuel.
The Fear & Greed Index surged from a low to 78, on the edge of "Extreme Greed."
But there is one on-chain signal worth caution: open interest contracts dropped by 42,907 BTC in the same week, down to 319,896 BTC—indicating this rally was driven more by short liquidations than by new long positions being actively opened. The proportion of short-term holders in profit jumped from 26.1% to 74%, while BTC inflows to exchanges increased simultaneously, suggesting potential selling pressure is rising.
Today BTC is around $77,000-$78,000. The January 2026 peak at $94,820 and the all-time high at $126,198—both ceilings have yet to be touched. $BTC Gold hits a three-month high. $PAXG 4,664.8 (+1.32%), trading volume 1.53 million USD, three times yesterday's amount. $XAU also up +1.32%.
The logic remains unchanged: US debt surpasses 40 trillion USD, depreciation trades continue. Last week, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 28 tons, the highest since January.
My plan in three sentences:
Hold on, but do not add positions.
Reduce the first tranche (one-third to half) between 4,680–4,700.
If it falls below 4,600, liquidate all and don't look back.
Four major events this week: 8/27 Nvidia $NVDA, 8/28 Warsh, July PCE, Iran sanctions. Before these events materialize, I will reduce exposure.
Holding is about holding the trend; reducing positions is about slimming event risk. These two are not contradictory.
Where will you set your first tranche reduction? 4,680 or 4,700?
This does not constitute investment advice.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
The news is true. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will indeed hold a press conference at 2 PM Eastern Time on August 24 (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25) to announce specific details of the "largest financial offensive in history" against Iran.
She herself calls this operation the "Economic D-Day," aiming to cut off "every economic lifeline" of the Iranian regime.
Regarding the impact path, your logical deduction chain holds:
1. Iran has responded strongly: The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned that if the economic war continues, "there will be no more oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf region."
2. Oil prices and inflation: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices will surge → inflation expectations rise → the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace will be disrupted.
3. Liquidity and risk assets: The U.S. dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, delivering a sentiment blow to risk assets like $BTC.
However, there are also hedging factors currently: oil prices have retreated amid a weakening dollar and declining Treasury yields, and Yellen herself added that "large-scale military action is not expected to be necessary."
On the technical side, $BTC rose from around 60,000 last week to a high of 79,455 USD, an increase of over 20%, with RSI reaching 93, indeed in an extremely overbought state. The news is the trigger, and the technical correction demand is the internal cause — this judgment is reasonable.
Regarding operational advice, the points you mentioned in the article are pragmatic: avoid heavy overnight positions, avoid altcoins and junk coins, and hold only BTC paired with platform tokens as the base position in spot trading. At such a node, the main force is indeed prone to use news to spike and shake out positions.
Additionally, a reminder: Yellen previously stated that the U.S. has seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets, indicating that the U.S. has precedent in enforcement in the crypto field, which is also a potential variable.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $SNDK SanDisk Intraday Focus Near 1480 Support
Lightly add a long position first to test and see how it goes 😈
After being resisted near 1630, it quickly crashed, directly breaking through the Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators are collectively bearish (moving average death cross, MACD death cross, volume decline), but RSI is severely oversold, suggesting a short-term rebound may occur.
The storage sector as a whole faces a "deep adjustment demand," with TRS financing costs hitting record highs combined with deleveraging, indicating the industry may have reached a cyclical peak. 1,630 is the mid-term bull-bear dividing line—if the rebound fails to reclaim this level, the adjustment trend will continue.
Be cautious: funding rates remain positive (0.056%), indicating long holders are still paying fees to shorts—this lagging sentiment of "longs not dying" may mean the adjustment is not over yet.
News is bearish
2. News Analysis
1. Sector linkage: Storage stocks collectively weaken pre-market
On August 24, following the decline of Korean storage stocks, U.S. storage stocks also fell collectively pre-market: SanDisk dropped over 4%, Micron Technology, Rambus, SK Hynix fell over 3%, Seagate Technology and Western Digital nearly 3%. The overall weakness in the storage sector is a direct external factor for the decline of SNDKUSDT.
2. Fundamentals: NAND price increase slope slows
SanDisk previously benefited from a surge in NAND flash prices—spring contract prices rose 70%-75%, and the company's gross margin soared from 26.2% to 84.6%. However, TrendForce expects the current quarter's NAND price increase to slow to 10%-15%. The slowing price increase slope means the steepest phase of rapid performance growth may be over.
Additionally, industry research shows SanDisk and Kioxia's NAND technology generations lag behind Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, raising doubts about mid-to-long-term competitiveness.
3. Capital side: Shorts increase positions, deleveraging
· Shorts significantly increased positions: a large address on Hyperliquid increased SNDK short positions from 81 to 3,748 contracts, a net increase of about $5.6 million, with an average entry price of $1,571
· TRS financing costs hit record highs: On August 24, chip and storage stocks reached cyclical peaks, with total return swap (TRS) financing costs at record levels, indicating some gains may be driven by leverage rather than fundamentals
· Castle Investment's reduction in holdings brings supply pressure
The above personal views are for reference only.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $BOME's recent strength in the Solana ecosystem tokens is not due to any major positive news; it's purely internal capital rotation within the meme sector. PEPE continuously attracts funds in the ETH ecosystem, while on the other side, BOME absorbs the liquidity overflow from there. This is a typical sector seesaw effect, with capital switching back and forth between meme tokens on different public chains. From the latest Long-Term Holder Supply In Profit Share (LTH Supply In Profit Share), the profit status of long-term chips is rapidly recovering.
This may no longer be a typical bear market rebound but closer to the early stage of a new cycle, with V-shaped recovery characteristics strengthening.
What requires more caution is: if a market similar to 2019 emerges, how should individuals respond?To start with the conclusion, just three sentences: 1. Keep holding. 2. Do not add positions at this level. 3. When it rises to a key level, reduce positions in batches. Gold price hit a three-month high today. $PAXG current price 4,664.8, intraday +1.32%, 24-hour trading volume 1.53 million U — at this time yesterday it was only 530,000, volume has nearly tripled. $XAU also +1.32%, trading volume 15.45 million U, ten times that of PAXG, liquidity remains the best among all platform gold-mapped assets. In the article I wrote yesterday, I said "Do not chase above 4,600, wait for volume to stabilize above 4,650 before adding." It has risen above 4,650 today with increased volume. I did not add. The reason is simple: between "stabilizing above" and "chasing high" lies a pullback. Without a pullback, I don't have the position I want. Today's rise logic remains unchanged. The engine driving this rally is still the same — the debasement trade. The US debt scale has a new figure today: surpassing 40 trillion dollars. The Treasury is still expanding long-term bond repurchases, the dollar is under pressure, and gold's pricing logic as an "anti-fiat" continues to be reinforced. Last week, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 28 tons, the highest single-week inflow since January, which is solid buying, not futures sentiment. So for the phrase "keep holding," I have no hesitation at all. The mid-term logic is intact, it's not time to sell yet. But there are three short-term things you should be cautious about 1. SanDisk $SNDK has strong support at 1500; if it doesn't fall below, I'll do some trading, probably sideways until the US stock market opens before it drops further.
Currently, the mainstream trend is upward, but technology is clearly under pressure due to US-Canada trade frictions, high US Treasury yields, and geopolitical conflicts. US stocks are down in pre-market trading, including Korean and A-share storage sectors, which are not performing well. Clearly, this storage sector correction is still ongoing #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Bessent Put is gradually forcing out the Fed Put
Bessent wants to use nearly 1 trillion from the TGA to buy back long-term bonds, but this move only raises more suspicion.
The TGA is originally the core buffer prepared for the debt ceiling in the first quarter of next year. Using this money early to suppress yields is like robbing Peter to pay Paul—using ammunition meant for future negotiations to deal with current market pressure.
More importantly, this approach will slowly pull the Federal Reserve deeper into the situation. Since the TGA is held on the Fed’s balance sheet, once its scale is heavily used or needs to be rebuilt later, the market will naturally start to speculate whether the Fed will cooperate or ultimately be forced to intervene. The boundary between fiscal and monetary policy is thus gradually blurred.
What truly suppresses the long end has never been accounting maneuvers, but fiscal discipline itself. Using cash buffers to buy time often just postpones the problem, and makes it worse when it returns $SPCX weakened before the market opened, with the tech sector collectively under pressure, which is worth noting.
Reviewing recent patterns, this stock often experiences a pre-market surge followed by a post-market decline over the weekend phase. This time, the same rhythm was repeated, with the pre-market upward momentum completely absorbed during the trading session.
Not only SPCX, Nvidia also fell synchronously by 2%, and the US tech sector generally weakened. The significant surge in June made many participants optimistic, but now the market is beginning to show signs of pressure.
The ongoing weakness of the US dollar is not a favorable signal for the equity market. There is insufficient incremental capital in the market, and most funds remain cautious. If the downward trend is further confirmed, it could easily trigger a rapid sell-off, amplifying overall market volatility.
Semiconductor-related stocks, including SanDisk, have also been affected by this adjustment. Attention should continue to be paid to the news that Anthropic plans to submit IPO documents by the end of August. The scale of this fundraising is expected to be comparable to SpaceX and will have some impact on market liquidity.
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #BTC experiences volatility after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #Sandisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus Good evening everyone!
Bitcoin, Sandisk, and SK Hynix belong to two completely different asset categories. BTC is a cash-flow-free crypto asset, while Sandisk and SK Hynix are publicly listed companies in the storage sector. All three are influenced by US Treasury yields and global risk appetite, but their value anchors and cycle logics differ greatly.
$BTC Bitcoin BTC, as the benchmark of the crypto market, sees intermittent capital inflows from spot ETFs, with prices recovering and rebounding amid easing rate expectations. It has no revenue or profit; pricing relies entirely on external capital and consensus, with institutional and short-term speculative funds having divergent demands. Historical resistance from previous holders remains above; this rebound is mainly liquidity-driven rather than fundamental improvement. If inflation data exceeds expectations or rate cut expectations are delayed, the coin price will quickly come under pressure.
$SNDK Sandisk is an independently listed pure NAND flash manufacturer, focusing on consumer SSDs, memory cards, and enterprise flash. It lacks HBM high-end AI storage capacity and mainly benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and enterprise storage demand. Currently, NAND prices are in a cyclical upturn phase, but industry competition is fierce, and product gross margins are significantly lower than those in the HBM sector. The company has real cash flow from financial reports but lacks the boost from high-growth AI business, making its elasticity weaker than Hynix. Its stock price mainly follows the NAND cycle and consumer electronics demand fluctuations.
$SKHYNIX SK Hynix holds both HBM high-end AI storage and regular DRAM/NAND businesses. HBM4 is accelerating ramp-up in the second half of the year, with many long-term contracts locking in future capacity. Q2 performance was impressive, but the market has started to price in supply pressure from capacity expansion, compounded by cloud providers' capital expenditure expectations causing disturbances. The stock price sharply corrected from highs, followed by a large-scale buyback to stabilize market sentiment. It simultaneously benefits from AI high-growth dividends and faces strong storage cycle risks. Performance is visible, but caution is needed regarding peers' yield improvements compressing product premiums.
In the risk asset rebound window, BTC tracks ETF funds and macro expectations; Sandisk focuses on NAND spot prices; Hynix closely watches HBM capacity release and competitive landscape. If US Treasury yields rise, all three asset types will face valuation pressure. #BTC fluctuated after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in. The 76000-78000 range has been oscillating for three days, and I'm torn about whether to short or not.
BTC has been sideways between 76000-78000 for almost three days. Neither up nor down, no drop, no rise.
The price hasn't moved, and people are going crazy.
Chasing longs? 80000 is a barrier that can't be passed. Opening shorts? What if ETFs suddenly buy aggressively again?
Honestly, I haven't felt good these days either. This round went from 64000 to 79000, up 15000 points, with almost no decent pullback before the sideways movement. Missing out is missing out; chasing hard risks getting trapped, shorting hard risks getting liquidated.
What's even more frustrating is—ETH has already broken 2500, Trump has tripled in three days.
But have you noticed? BTC actually stopped before 80000. ETH is catching up, Trump is soaring, while the leader BTC is sideways. What does this mean? It means short-term funds are being diverted, not working together to break through.
If BTC were really strong, it should have already broken through 80000 directly with liquidity. The reason it's sideways is because the sell orders above are indeed heavy, and bulls need to catch their breath.
I don't recommend opening positions with emotions in this kind of market.
If you're out of position, stay out; missing out doesn't lose money. The urge to short is because the recent one-sided rise was too strong, and short-term indicators are indeed overbought, but the odds for shorts aren't high.
The truly comfortable entry is to wait for it to choose a direction itself—either a volume breakout above 80000 or a pullback to 75000 to stabilize. Entering now is just gambling.
The market isn't short of opportunities; it's short of patience to wait for them $BTC The biggest change in the market in recent days wasn't a BTC rebound, but rather funds gradually shifting from BTC to ETH, and then to some high-beta altcoins. ETF funds are flowing back again, regulatory expectations improved after the White House crypto summit, and the U.S. Treasury's long-term bond buyback to release liquidity expectations have all driven BTC's rapid rebound from its lows. Recently, Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.9 billion in weekly net inflows, marking one of the strongest performances since October last year. Meanwhile, ETH's gains over the past week have clearly outpaced BTC, and the market is beginning to show typical patterns: BTC → ETH → altcoins 1. Activating the radar: Volume and price synchronized + key level confirmation $LIT (3.4–3.6 range): 24-hour gains and trading volume amplify in sync, typical startup type.
Key point to watch: Whether it can hold near the recent starting low after increased volume and continue to rise. If trading volume shrinks significantly during price pullbacks, it can easily turn into a pulse. $PENGU (0.0094–0.0096): 24-hour increase of about 12–15%, with trading volume expanding in tandem.
Key resistance: 0.0100 psychological barrier (the next target after a breakout is around 0.012).
Key support levels: 0.0081 (near the 200-day moving average), 0.0073.
With both volume and price combined, holding above 0.0081 is healthier; if it falls below it, short-term momentum may quickly fade. $AAVE (135–140): Gains and trading volumes increased in tandem.
Key resistance: Daily movement needs to stabilize above 149.4 for further continuation.
Key support: 10Fidelity Fund Doubles Gold Holdings to the Limit: When Top Managers Question Fed Credibility, the Safe-Haven Logic Completely Changes
George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, doubled his gold holdings in the past three weeks, directly reaching the 5% position limit, and clearly stated that he would further increase it if the dollar's safe-haven status continues to decline. The trigger for this aggressive increase was the panic selling of long-term U.S. Treasuries by global investors after the July Fed meeting.
George bluntly said that the plunge in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects a Fed credibility crisis. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases seems more like manipulating the yield curve rather than solving the deficit problem. Now, the underlying logic of gold trading has completely changed: the market's focus is no longer on the rise in yields itself, but on why yields are rising. When rising long-term rates reflect sovereign credit default risk premiums, U.S. Treasuries lose their safe-haven attribute and instead become a source of risk from fiat currency credit dilution.
Traditional long-term capital like Fidelity buying gold to the limit shares the same underlying logic as crypto capital increasing Bitcoin allocations: both are accelerating the escape from a sovereign debt system with impaired credit and reconstructing the pricing power of non-sovereign hard assets.
Facing the out-of-control long-term U.S. Treasuries and Fed credibility crisis, how do you allocate your safe-haven positions? Between gold and Bitcoin, which do you think can better inherit this sovereign credit migration?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 It turns out that the 10 addresses associated with bit collectively hold over $323 million in $ETH and $BTC long positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $41.95 million! 🤯
▶︎ ETH long positions: holding 65,977.9684 ETH ($165 million), unrealized profits over $15.08 million
▶︎ BTC long positions: holding 2000 BTC ($158 million), unrealized profits over $26.87 million
This does not even include the $9.897 million profit previously realized by address 0x6c8…d84f6
Who exactly is this powerful entity, financially strong and so early and firmly bullish… $BTC USD falls, ETF buys, shorts buried
1. US Treasury repurchase doubles, suppressing the USD, reigniting depreciation logic, gold rises accordingly.
2. ETF net inflow of 1.92 billion in a single week, BlackRock absorbs 500 million in one day, institutions directly pushing the market.
3. 4 billion short positions forcibly liquidated, a stampede-style short covering boosts a short squeeze rally.
USD falls, ETF buys, shorts explode, three forces jointly pushing the market. Understand the logic, next time there's a move you can profit too.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡