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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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8月24日美伊局势解析:聚焦美对伊朗最新制裁是否“TACO” 正如前文所说,周末对于美伊局势发生了很多大事,伊朗试图与阿曼重构海峡管理模式——许可制+服务费制度 面对美国潜在的经济制裁,巴基斯坦调停人中最高代表穆尼尔已经前往德黑兰,且根据媒体爆料,出发前几天穆尼尔已经与特朗普通话,穆尼尔这次三个任务非常重要 伊朗在面对美国制裁前做了两手准备,一手软化海峡收费标准,保持对海峡的以及美伊谈判的积极态度,一手警告美国经济制裁可能扩大双方冲突风险。 中方今天再次对美国的经济制裁发出反制预警,提前告知美国要求保护中国船东、船只在中东的利益,算是给美国制裁方案给出一定施压 接下来观察两个动向: 1,周日伊朗官员传出伊朗受邀《麦加共同防御协议》,目前还未看到其他三国的官方确认消息,一旦确认,或者协议被推进,我认为是重要利好转折点 2,美国今晚对伊朗制裁是否软化与TACO,目前名义上巴基斯坦穆尼尔出访伊朗就是一种政治态度表态,其次中方反制警示,美国已经明确接收到外交与政治压力,看是否还继续眼里制裁,如果软化,我也视为是重大利好 #美伊制裁升级,能源通胀风险回升
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Major update on US-Iran developments on August 23: Munir's visit to Iran may handle multiple issues, and Iran's invitation to participate in the "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement" could change the Middle East landscape!
Major update on US-Iran developments on August 23: Munir may visit Iran to handle multi-front matters, Iran's invitation to participate in the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement could change the Middle East landscape! There isn't much news about the US and Iran today, but it's all important news. Let's sort them out in chronological order. I believe this is a major turning point in the US-Iran situation: #特朗普披露千笔证券交易, transparency is under scrutiny. 1. Iranian Foreign Minister Agrach stated that the so-called 'most severe economic sanctions in history' imposed by the US on Iran were a reluctant choice after the current strategy failed. At the same time, Iran has not closed the negotiation window, hoping Washington will conduct negotiations with respect. This is actually sending a signal to the outside world—Iran does not accept negotiations based on submission, only negotiations on terms of respect. 2. Pakistani Army Marshal Munir will visit Tehran next Monday. Munir is Pakistan's highest representative in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and his visit means Pakistan will return to the focus of U.S.-Iran negotiations. I believe Munir's visit to Tehran is not only on three issues: a) mediation between the US and Iran, which is the main task; b) to jointly discuss countermeasures against US economic sanctions, and also to pressure the US through diplomatic means to temporarily suspend them; c) to discuss with Iran about joining the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement. 3. Senior Iranian officials stated that Iran has been invited to join the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement, a regional security framework agreement among Middle Eastern countries. Currently, the main countries are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Once Iran joins, Iran and Saudi Arabia will join

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