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After the paperwork for Grayscale's application was finalized, the price of $ZEC quickly surged, bringing the tension between compliant custody and privacy features to the forefront.
The market showed a sharp rally driven by sentiment premium, with long positions rapidly accumulating at high levels.
Institutional trusts shifting to public products require full-chain capital traceability, which inherently conflicts with the zero-knowledge proof design that shields addresses.
When transparent address custody becomes a compliance prerequisite, the risk appetite triggered by paper filings will be directly constrained by substantive review requirements.
If the transparent address solution is smoothly accepted by regulatory documents, the holding logic can be reshaped, but this trend will quickly fail if privacy value disputes arise due to transparency compromises.
If anti-money laundering reviews impose strict scrutiny on the underlying concealment features, the risk appetite of follow-up funds will reverse, and high-level buying pressure will face compression.
A halt in compliance progress will disprove a valuation reappraisal driven solely by the application event.
In the next seven days, focus on observing the capital accumulation of on-chain transparent addresses and the substantive feedback from regulatory documents.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？BTC depends on external capital, while ETH depends on internal sentiment; this is the most fundamental difference between the two.
The rise and fall of $BTC largely depends on the external macro environment and institutional ETF capital inflows and outflows, which is more about the choice of external capital. As long as there is no catastrophic negative news in the overall environment and the bottom chips are relatively solid, it is difficult to see a bottomless sell-off.
$ETH is different. Besides the impact of macro factors, it also has to bear multiple internal factors such as staking unlock sell pressure, changes in ecosystem narrative heat, and fluctuations in on-chain transaction fees. Even if the macro environment does not change much, once on-chain sentiment cools down, it will weaken independently.
This creates a situation: when the overall environment is poor, BTC has stronger defensive capabilities; only when the market's overall risk appetite warms up and hot narratives flourish can ETH truly open up upward space.
At the current stage, the market lacks strong catalysts, and both coins are repeatedly bottoming within a range. Do not subjectively insist on an immediate big rise or fall; pay more attention to capital flow and changes in market volume. Leverage trading has a very low tolerance for errors; it is better to miss opportunities than to forcibly predict a market that has not yet arrived.$OKB CEO Star announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund to support global developers in building applications on-chain. On the same day, Circle's native USDC and the cross-chain protocol CCTP officially went live on X Layer.
These two events should be viewed together. The ecosystem fund is the ammunition, and native USDC is the infrastructure. Previously, X Layer used a cross-chain version of USDC, not officially issued by Circle, so liquidity was naturally discounted. Now with official integration, the stablecoin channel is fully opened. A DeFi developer said: official USDC integration is more substantial than signing ten small project partnerships.
The transmission logic for OKB is very clear: X Layer ecosystem expansion → increased on-chain Gas consumption → rising demand for OKB as the Gas token. Coupled with exchange staking, buyback, and burn, the deflationary loop is tightening.
Conclusion: bullish in the mid-term. The progress of the $1 billion fund implementation is a key observation indicator. X Layer TVL breaking through 200 million is a signal to increase positions. Buy OKB in batches below $105.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 Looking at rotation from the ETH/BTC ratio, the current BTC market fundamentals are worth cautioning.
Observing the style shifts in the crypto market, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is a crucial reference, which is also the core reason why I currently do not hold BTC.
On the yearly chart, $ETH/$BTC has been declining continuously for years, but this year the downtrend has significantly narrowed, forming a near doji consolidation pattern, showing potential signs of reversal. Even if ETH struggles to significantly outperform BTC in the short term, the room for further sustained weakness is limited. The two move highly correlated, and comparatively, ETH’s potential upside is more advantageous.
BTC surged rapidly from 62,000 to 80,000 in early August. I believe this sharp rise is not solidly grounded, more like a short-term dehydration and weight loss, essentially a pulse rally, with the possibility of some retracement. Therefore, 58,000 may not be the final bottom of this cycle.
Combining with the US stock macro outlook: the US stock market is expected to oscillate at high levels in Q3, then weaken in Q4, with a potentially larger scale adjustment arriving in 2027. As a risk asset, crypto is unlikely to have an independent rally.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 What actually convinced me to take $BTC seriously was its settlement architecture. Bitcoin lets value move globally without relying on a central operator, while its fixed issuance, transparent ledger, and predictable validation rules reduce monetary uncertainty. Most networks usually achieve only one or two of these properties well. That#WarshAtJacksonHole #ETHTests2500 #BTCETFInflowsSurge $MU $SNDK The storage sector's market situation today is actually a bit off. Micron and SanDisk surged too quickly earlier, especially $SNDK, which experienced sharp rises and falls in a short time, with increasingly intense capital battles. On August 17, the storage sector just saw a collective rally, with SanDisk rising nearly 9% in a single day and Micron up over 4%; however, the next day there was a reversal, with SanDisk falling nearly 9% at one point and Micron dropping over 7%. This trend indicates that the chips are now very unstable. Today, I am actually more worried about further declines tonight. The reason is simple: the fundamentals haven't suddenly worsened, but the stock price has already priced in too much optimism in advance. The market is now shifting from discussing "how strong AI storage demand is" to debating "whether this valuation can hold up." The latest market views also mention that storage stocks have clearly lost momentum recently, and some funds are withdrawing from this crowded trade. My view: if after the U.S. market opens tonight, MU and SNDK cannot quickly recover the morning's losses and instead see a volume-driven sell-off, it could easily trigger a cascade of selling. Especially for SNDK, which is inherently more volatile than MU and had a more exaggerated prior rise; once funds start to concentrate on taking profits, the drop won't be gentle. Of course, I'm not saying the storage fundamentals have suddenly collapsed. AI servers, HBM, and NAND demand remain the most important logic behind this rally. What really needs caution is that after high valuations combined with high volatility, the market is starting to front-run. So tonight, I personally will be more bearish. If the market opens with a sharp drop, I won't chase the short but will wait for a rebound $BTC at $77,700, are you chasing the highs? First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, retail investors FOMO chasing the highs. In mid-August, it was still hovering around 62k-65k, then in one week it surged directly to 79.5k, a weekly increase of 23-26%, one of the largest weekly gains in recent years. Tens of billions of dollars in short positions across the network were liquidated, retail investors just got cut, and the market took off. The candlestick chart tells you: successfully broke through the 67.5k range, stood above the 200-day moving average (71.7k), and the weekly chart formed higher lows — the mid-term trend has turned bullish, but don't chase the highs in the short term. First thing: ETF inflows hit $1.9 billion in one week, this is not volume retail investors can pull out. Spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $1.9 billion this week, a 10-month high. BlackRock IBIT contributed the most, institutions are buying with real money. Ray Dalio has publicly recommended allocating BTC to hedge against U.S. debt risk. Are you still waiting for a pullback? They are buying, you are watching, it’s always like this. Second thing: The U.S. Treasury made a big move, liquidity valves opened. The U.S. Treasury announced at least doubling the long-term Treasury repo scale to the $4 billion level, directly suppressing long-end yields. Treasury repo = injecting money into the market. Long-end yields falling = risk assets become more valuable. BTC and gold directly benefit. Combined with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act, giving the crypto industry "policy clarity" expectations. Regulatory easing + liquidity release, a double recipe for a bull market. Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be watched. The daily RSI has entered over$BTC $ETH The underlying logic of this rebound comes from the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, the market's expectation of marginal easing in trading liquidity, combined with short squeeze and institutional ETF buying jointly pushing prices higher.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
However, the macro environment is currently quite conflicted: inflation has not completely cooled off, the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts remains uncertain, and the high valuation of U.S. stocks also hides the risk of a correction. BTC is increasingly resembling a macro risk asset; if U.S. stocks adjust, it will be hard for BTC to remain unaffected.
In the short term, to effectively break through 80,000, relying solely on contract squeezes is not enough; two confirmations are needed: first, a continued decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and second, a sustained net inflow of BTC-ETF with incremental spot funds following.
If ETFs continue to see outflows and U.S. Treasury yields rise again, then this round of rally will be more of a liquidity recovery rebound rather than the start of a full-blown bull market. Going forward, the focus should be on three key signals: U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index, and ETF funds. Today, before the US stock market opened, gold and Bitcoin continued to show strength, especially gold breaking previous highs again. This week is once again in a period of macroeconomic intensity, which may trigger considerable volatility:
1. Wednesday 20:30: July PCE data
2. Earnings report released after Wednesday's market close, with a conference call at 5 a.m. on Thursday
3. Friday 22:00: Wash's speech
Currently, the market's most critical core monthly expectation for PCE data is 0.23%, rounded to 0.2%. As long as the core PCE monthly rate is below 0.3%, the market is likely to remain moderate.
Recently, AI stocks have gradually cooled down, and Nvidia's performance is unlikely to exceed expectations again, especially after the major guaranteed loan move, which basically means its potential has been temporarily exhausted. As the saying goes, if good news doesn't go up, it's bad news. Against the backdrop of weak U.S. Treasuries, it is difficult for U.S. stocks to stand out alone, and it is indeed time for a break.
And Wash's speech on Friday will be the key to the upcoming market trend. Especially after Becent just announced that long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases would double, the market urgently needs more information to confirm whether the two parties have coordinated in advance and whether the Fed will lean hawkish in the future.
a) From the perspective of policy reserve space, regardless of whether this coordination was pre-designed, the objective result is that Becent has taken on part of the long-term stability task, giving Wash greater room for hawkish expression.
b) Moreover, this is Walsh's first time delivering an important speech as Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole, requiring him to build himself and recharge the Fed's credibility.
c) This year's conference theme is "Financial Innovation: The Impact on Payments and Policy."In 2019, Bitcoin broke through 13,800 in June, seemingly about to surge to the 2017 all-time high of 19,000, but then it remained sluggish for the rest of the year, dropping to a low of 6,600 in December.
We previously mentioned that the three key factors determining a bull market are narrative, liquidity, and chip structure, all of which perfectly aligned in 2019.
Narrative: Facebook was going to launch a coin, "big institutions/big tech entering the market."
Liquidity: Three interest rate cuts in July, September, and October.
Chip structure: The deep bear market of 2018 was completely cleared out, exhausting selling pressure.
Even so, why was the bull market suddenly interrupted? Bitcoin didn’t even break a new high.
Many say that 2019 itself was just a continuation of the four-year cycle bear market, so a bull market was impossible, citing the performance in 2015 and before October 2023 as evidence.
This is still a typical case of rigid thinking.
Let’s look at the 2019 case.
That year, Facebook planned to launch a stablecoin project called Libra. At that time, Facebook had 2.7 billion users, meaning it could provide the crypto space with imaginative capital and users. Partners included Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and eBay.
The narrative was in place, combined with expectations of rate cuts, and Bitcoin surged from around 3,000 to 13,800 in the first half of the year, a 4x increase.
The key issue was what happened afterward: regulation killed Libra.$GRVT $GRVT Rumor has it that the GRVT team has run away, a soft RUG pull, according to GRVT's BD. Now other non-core members of the project are opening short positions to sell off.Small Modular Nuclear Power: AI Power Grabs, Nuclear Power Begins Industrialization In August 2026, TerraPower, founded by Bill Gates, signed a cooperation agreement with South Korea's SK Innovation to jointly participate in small modular reactor projects in the US and overseas. Korean companies hope to provide key equipment, engineering construction, and operational capabilities, bringing the supply chain experience accumulated in shipbuilding, refining, and large machinery into the next-generation nuclear power industry. A few months ago, the U.S. Department of Energy selected eight companies to provide over $94 million in funding to help resolve licensing issues, supply chains, and site preparation for small modular reactors. Another federal funding of up to $800 million was allocated to TVA and Holtec to advance the first projects in Tennessee and Michigan. The U.S. Department of Energy May 2026 announcement, TVA, and Holtec projects have been calling for a nuclear power revival for many years. The force that has now brought it back into the spotlight of capital comes from a very modern scenario: AI data centers are lining up to grab electricity. Why AI is Putting Nuclear Power Back on the Table: For more than a decade, the global power system has mainly expanded around wind, solar, and natural gas. Renewable energy costs are dropping rapidly, and construction cycles are shorter than nuclear power, but data centers need to operate continuously throughout the year. Model training cannot be suspended during training due to cloudy weather, lack of wind, or grid congestion, so companies need low-carbon power sources that can output stably. Traditional large nuclear power plants can provide stable baseload power, but the problem lies in the large scale of the project. Each power station heads toThe ETH/BTC ratio recently formed a "golden cross," where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Since early June, ETH has consistently outperformed BTC, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising about 25% from its low on June 6. Historical data shows that the performance after an ETH/BTC golden cross is inconsistent. After the golden cross on July 25, 2025, the ratio rose about 36% over the following four weeks but then declined; after the February 2021 golden cross, it once surged about 93%. However, the two golden crosses in May and August 2022 failed to sustain an upward trend. The golden cross is a lagging indicator based on historical prices and does not guarantee that ETH will continue to outperform BTC afterward $BTC $ETH #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The SEC finally does more than just say "No."
On 8/19, the SEC released "Regulation Crypto Assets," the first securities regulatory framework specifically targeting token issuance, providing a clear path for issuers. It is now entering a 60-day public comment period.
Key change: compliant ICOs become possible. Projects can issue tokens under conditions of disclosure, custody, and anti-fraud measures, rather than being immediately sued by the SEC. This is a big deal for U.S. projects.
In the past four years, American entrepreneurs either moved to Singapore/Dubai or issued tokens secretly without showing their faces. Now there is at least a legal path.
But don’t overinterpret. The SEC under Paul Atkins is indeed friendlier, but the final rules still depend on Congress and courts. The CLARITY Act vote on 9/15 is the key variable.
Notably, Bitwise data shows: crypto products had a net inflow of $1.8 billion in the first half of 2026.
Institutions haven’t left; they’re just waiting for regulatory clarity.
Do you think this regulatory shift will make the U.S. a crypto startup hub again?
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $SNDK's crash from 1628 to 1516: Three real reasons behind it
Today, SNDK dropped sharply from 1628.69 to 1516.90 in one move, falling 112 points, nearly 7%. Many were confused, so I'll objectively break down the reasons for this plunge.
1. Concentrated profit-taking: SNDK rose over 4% in two days from around 1560 on August 22 to 1628, yielding substantial short-term profits. 1628 is near a previous high, where both trapped holders and profit-takers sold simultaneously, causing a resonant sell-off.
2. Pullback in the US stock memory chip sector: SNDK is a tokenized stock of SanDisk, closely linked to US stocks. Today, the US memory chip sector pulled back overall, with Micron and SK Hynix both declining to varying degrees. It's normal for SNDK to follow this drop. The essence of tokenized stocks is to track US stocks; if US stocks fall, SNDK cannot remain unaffected.
3. Insufficient liquidity amplifying the decline: SNDK token's trading volume is generally small, usually ranging from hundreds of thousands to a few million USD. Once a large sell order appears without enough buy orders to absorb it, the price is quickly hammered down. The 112-point drop from 1628 to 1516 saw increased volume but insufficient buying, a typical sign of liquidity shortage.
Trading advice: If you hold positions, don't rush to sell; wait for a rebound to 1550-1560 before reducing holdings. If you don't hold, don't try to catch the bottom of tokenized stocks—they're hard to time; wait for stabilization first. The crash itself isn't scary; what's scary is not knowing why it happened The drama between the US and Iran has escalated again.
What does this have to do with the crypto world? Two layers.
First layer: inflation expectations are back. Oil prices have risen, and gasoline prices are already 50% higher than before the war. Inflation had just calmed down for a few days, but this fire is about to flare up again. If oil prices continue to rise due to this round of sanctions, it will be even harder for the Federal Reserve to shift toward easing. Bitcoin’s path to 80,000 based on rate cut expectations has narrowed again.
Second layer: Bitcoin’s current movement is driven by "policy expectations" logic, not "safe haven" logic. The last surge to 79,000 was supported by a White House policy shift, ETF inflows, and short covering. Now, rising oil prices pushing inflation higher will further reinforce the Fed’s rate hike expectations for September, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets. Bitcoin facing short-term pressure is a high-probability event.
Here’s my take. Trump’s move essentially treats the "economic war" as a bargaining chip. But Iran is directly holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage, making oil prices the most direct tool in this game. If sanctions really take effect and the strait is further blocked, oil prices surging to 100 is not impossible.
For Bitcoin, the 77,000 level was originally digesting profit-taking sideways. With geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations both heating up, short-term volatility will continue. The real turning point isn’t oil prices, but the vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Compared to Bitcoin, $ETH has shown a more aggressive rally this round, supported by both macroeconomic recovery and its own upgrade fundamentals. It has currently broken through a key resistance level but is accompanied by overbought signals and geopolitical risks. The core situation is as follows:
🚀 Leading the charge: policy dividends and a short squeeze resonance
Ethereum's recent sharp rise aligns with Bitcoin's logic but with greater elasticity:
· Macro catalyst: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, interpreted by the market as suppressing long-term interest rates, weakening the dollar, and driving funds into higher-elasticity risk assets. Last week, Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $697 million, with institutional funds following suit.
· Short squeeze: Previously accumulated leveraged short positions were forced to liquidate. On August 19 alone, over $1.1 billion worth of short positions on Ethereum were liquidated, creating a "buying the rally" spiral. The weekly gain once exceeded 31%, soaring from around $1900 to above $2500. BTC has capital, but risk assets have not formed resonance.
BTC is currently around 77,000U. Last week, the US spot ETF had a net inflow of about $1.918 billion over five days, indicating that above 70,000 is not purely a contract-driven rally. (Farside Investors)
However, last week the US stock market saw the S&P down -1.43%, the Nasdaq down -2.05%, and today Asian tech stocks continue to be under pressure; the 10Y US Treasury yield remains near 4.7%. (Reuters)
My judgment: BTC is currently strong due to capital flow, while US stocks are weak due to valuation discount rates.
The real directional choice this week depends on Nvidia's earnings report + PCE + Jackson Hole. If long-term bonds don't come down, AI stocks remain profit-driven; if BTC holds above 75,000, I will continue to lean towards a trend-following long position. (Reuters)Gold rose from 4000 to 4600, but this $600 increase was not driven by the same force; it contains three completely different components. The first phase pulled from 4100 to above 4300, relying on the August 7th non-farm payroll data. New jobs actually decreased by over 20,000, the worst this year, causing the probability of a rate hike to plummet from 36% to nearly 0. But this path has run its course—the probability of a rate hike cannot fall below zero. What can truly push gold to the next level is a rate cut, and rate cuts are currently not on the table. The fuel for this phase of the rise has been burned up. The second phase was on August 19th, when the Treasury suddenly announced a doubling of the long-term bond repurchase scale, targeting the 30-year Treasury yield—which had just broken 5.3%, a new high since 2007. The Treasury stepping in to buy bonds was firefighting; gold surged $80 in half an hour and rose over $170 in a single day, just like a bystander knocked over by the heatwave beside the fire. More importantly, this fever reducer only lasted three days, and yields almost bounced back to their original levels. The third phase is the real sleepless part of the whole story. Why does the Treasury have to personally buy the bonds it issues? Last week, $25 billion of new 30-year bonds had buyers asking for a 5.2% yield, the highest since 2001. Foreign investors have been reducing holdings of nearly $190 billion in U.S. debt since February, with Japan selling $26.4 billion in one month. Buyers are demanding higher prices, buyers are retreating, yet the Treasury still has to keep issuing debt; with $40 trillion in debt, annual interest alone is nearly $1.2 trillion. Even more abnormal is the shape of the yield curve: the 2-year yield is about 4.2% and almost unchanged, while the 30-year yield has skyrocketed above 5.25%, widening the spread at both ends $SNDK To understand SanDisk's current situation, a vivid analogy is: it has delivered a "historic-level" top student report card, but the market worries this is already the "peak," so the stock price once fell. Let me break down the contradictions and layout behind this.
📊 Currently: Performance at the top, but concerns emerge
SanDisk's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report is indeed impressive:
· Revenue: $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%.
· Earnings: Adjusted EPS of $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year.
· Gross margin: Soared to an astonishing 84.6%.
But the market's concern lies in the quality of growth:
· Price increases driving growth, not demand explosion: Only one-third of this quarter's revenue growth came from increased shipments; two-thirds were entirely supported by NAND flash price hikes. Essentially, it is benefiting from the price hike cycle.
· Severe "subject bias": The AI data center business is the absolute star with a 1298% surge, but consumer business revenue actually declined by 5%, far below expectations. At 2 AM tonight, the "strictest sanctions in history" by the US will take effect! Gold surges warning, is BTC in trouble?
Two major events are approaching simultaneously:
① Gold soars to a three-month high
Gold prices have surged to the highest point in over three months. The direct driver is a weaker dollar, but deeper is the market front-running—betting on Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Powell speech to signal a policy shift. If Powell's wording is "balanced or cautious," gold prices could rise further.
② At 2 AM tonight, the US officially announces the "strictest sanctions" on Iran
Basent will announce the "largest financial offensive in history," cutting off Iran's economic lifelines—oil trade, remittance channels, and ship-to-ship transfers will all be included in secondary sanctions.
Iran has drawn a red line: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices actually fell more than 1% today, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. But analysts warn that if the sanctions truly take effect, the risk of Iran taking more aggressive actions rises, and energy volatility is far from over.
For the crypto space:
Sanctions exceed expectations → oil prices surge → inflation stickiness increases → Fed finds it hard to cut rates → bearish for BTC/ETH; if sanctions are all bark and no bite → short-term bearishness is exhausted, a rebound is possible.
Gold rising is a signal; BTC not following is a warning. Combined with PCE and Powell's speech, volatility will definitely increase this week. Before the data is released, hold your hands, don't bet on direction.
$BTC $ETH $POPMART USDT is the standout performer on the board, trading near 19.77 and posting a strong 3.40% gain while most of the other contracts remain in negative territory. This makes POPMARTUSDT the clear leader in current momentum among the markets shown. The POP MART-related perpetual contract, dated 08/12/2026, is attracting attention as buyers continue to push the price higher. While other names such as RIOTUSDT and XIAOMIUSDT are facing sharp declines, POPMARTUSDT is moving in the opposite direction and demonstrating relative strength. The key question is whether buyers can maintain control above the current 19.7 area. If momentum continues, the bullish move could attract additional interest and fuel further upside. However, traders should also watch for profit-taking after the strong gain. For now, POPMARTUSDT is the strongest bullish contract in this group, with positive momentum clearly separating it from the broader red market.
#NvidiaServerPriceHike #AnthropicIPONears #Micron10BAIResearch The most dangerous signal of a bull market has appeared—not a crash, but everyone starting to shout for tenfold gains.
In this round of the market, I am paying more and more attention to a phenomenon: the community is filled with voices of tenfold, hundredfold, and financial freedom. When the market is unanimously bullish, it is often when risks are slowly accumulating.
A true bull market is not a nonstop surge, but a pattern of rising, pulling back, and rising again, continuously washing out those without patience. Many altcoins have already been rising continuously; many people start heavily buying at the top, even using leverage. This is when the greatest caution is needed.
Lately, I am focusing more on three directions: BTC, ETH, and SUI. BTC remains the anchor of the entire market; when funds seek safety, they first flow back to BTC. ETH is driven by its ecosystem and institutional funds, maintaining competitiveness in the mid to long term. SUI represents a high-growth sector but also has significantly greater volatility.
My strategy has always been simple: take profits in batches when prices rise, buy back in batches during pullbacks, always keep cash on hand, never go full position, never go all-in, and never change trading discipline because of FOMO.
Many ask when the bull market will end. I believe the top will not be announced in advance to anyone. Before the real end, there will definitely be a crazy surge, extreme optimism, new entrants continuously coming in, and veteran players showing off their profits. All of these are worth being cautious about.
Making money in crypto has never been about predicting the highest point but about staying calm when others are greedy and daring to position when others are fearful.
In this bull market, which do you favor most: BTC, ETH, SOL, or SUI? Feel free to share your target prices in the comments. $BSB last year also experienced a 1011 flash crash, after which altcoins started to follow the decline instead of the rise. A few days ago, altcoins all had another flash crash, and these days they have started to slowly decline again. Solana recently initiated on-chain governance voting, with a core proposal to increase the annual inflation decay rate of SOL from 15% to 30%. It is important to note that this does not mean the SOL inflation rate will directly become 30%, but rather that the existing inflation rate will decline faster and reach the long-term target of 1.5% earlier.
According to the current trajectory, the SOL inflation rate is about 3.8%, expected to drop to 1.5% around 2032; if the proposal passes, the target could be advanced to around 2029. Over the next six years, the newly issued supply is expected to decrease by approximately 18.9 million SOL, thereby reducing the dilution pressure faced by holders.
Additionally, Solana is discussing resource billing and increasing the burn amount. If related proposals advance simultaneously, it will create a dual effect of "reducing new issuance and increasing token burns."
However, this does not mean SOL will immediately enter deflation; the ultimate effect still depends on whether network usage and fee revenue can sustain growth.
The core of this vote is not simply to pursue "fewer tokens," but to test whether Solana can gradually shift from an inflation subsidy model to an economic model supported by real usage demand. Even if the proposal passes, technical implementation is still required, and investors should not equate governance voting directly with positive price impact.
#solana initiates governance voting proposing to double deflation rate $GRVT rumor has it that the GRVT team has run away, a soft RUG pull, according to GRVT's BD. Now other non-core members of the project are all opening short positions to sell off.It's a total disaster!
I'm Dao Ge. The U.S. has officially implemented a new round of sanctions on Iran, claiming it to be the "most devastating economic action," targeting oil buyers, traders, and financial channels. Iran's response is very tough: if the U.S. launches an economic war, there will be no more oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf.
The real killer move is secondary sanctions; countries that continue to buy Iranian oil will be implicated. Actual navigation through Hormuz has dropped to an extremely low level, with only 7 ships passing on Friday, and no large oil tankers or LNG ships at all. Brent crude rose 6.4% last week to around $93.
The impact on BTC follows the transmission chain of "oil price driving inflation, inflation suppressing interest rates." Supply shocks push oil prices up, which delays expectations for rate cuts. BTC is oscillating around 77,000, with the market's reaction to verbal threats becoming dull; the real variable is whether the sanctions can cause actual supply losses. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Dao Ge has finished speaking, savor it. #USIranSanctionsEscalate, energy inflation risk rises $BTC $ETH $BZ #ETHTests2500 Ethereum crossed $2,500 before pulling back toward $2,400, bringing its weekly gain close to 30% at one stage. The move was supported by substantial short covering, including more than $1.1 billion in reported onchain ETH liquidations. At the same time, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded roughly $697 million in weekly inflows—their strongest week of 2026. That combination of forced buying and institutional flows helped ETH outperform during the broader crypto rebound.
The important question is what happens after the short squeeze finishes. ETF inflows are a constructive signal because they represent direct investment demand, but a rapid price increase can also encourage traders to rebuild excessive leverage. ETH needs to hold its breakout area while funding rates and open interest normalize. Continued ETF buying, stronger spot volume and improving network activity would support the case for a sustainable repricing. If demand fades below $2,500, profit-taking could create a deeper consolidation. The rally is promising, but its durability will depend on real accumulation rather than liquidations alone.As of the weekly close on August 23, Bitcoin rose by $14,264 in one week to $77,387, marking the largest single-week dollar increase in history, with a weekly gain of 22.7%. The record is strong, but the Fear and Greed Index has risen to 78; next, more attention should be paid to spot market support rather than chasing certainty narratives. #BitcoinOn August 18, the storage sector experienced a violent sell-off, with SNDK and MU both plunging, leading many to believe the market cooled off.
However, the capital data tells a different story: over the past month, DRAM still saw a net inflow of $2.08 billion. After the sharp drop, leveraged long products attracted capital, short products saw capital outflows, indicating funds were bottom-fishing storage during the big dip.
The storage and crypto markets share the same pool of risk hot money; the lack of large-scale capital flight from storage indirectly indicates that the overall market risk appetite has not completely collapsed The market premium caused by Grayscale's Zcash ETF application seriously deviates from compliance reality. Institutional custody requires full-chain traceability, which fundamentally conflicts with $ZEC's zero-knowledge proof shielded address transaction feature; transparent custody would weaken its privacy premium. Once compliance scrutiny suppresses market risk appetite, chasing funds will face intense settlement pressure on high positions. The observation condition is locked on the actual progress of $ZEC on-chain transparent address fund flows and regulatory review documentation.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入Bitcoin mining pool operator Poolin is advancing the sale of remaining assets under Chapter 11 proceedings. It has filed to list assets between $1 million and $10 million, and liabilities between $100 million and $500 million. This event reminds mining enterprise users that hash rate scale does not equal balance sheet security; custodial wallets and mining pool operations must also be evaluated separately.
My judgment: The public range shows liabilities significantly exceeding book assets, but the final recovery still depends on asset sales and creditor claims confirmation. Users need to distinguish between mining pool hash rate shares, wallet liabilities, and U.S. mining farm assets, and should not conflate them into a single solvency indicator.There have been five true revolutions in the history of human currency. Each time, what changes is not the form of money, but who has the authority to define it. For the first time, shells were replaced by metal—currency transformed from a natural object into a man-made object, and minting rights became the earliest state power. The second time, metal was replaced by paper money—currency turned from physical to promise, and the right to fulfill promises was handed over to the bank. The third time, banks become central banks—the power to print money is concentrated in the hands of a state apparatus instead of decentralized commercial banks. The fourth time, banknotes became electronic digits—money moved from paper to servers, but control remained unchanged. The fifth is ongoing. It is called Ethereum. The core of this revolution is not "paper money turning into digital currency"—it's just a change of clothes. The true meaning of this revolution was that the power of currency shifted from government hands to code. A money printer that doesn't need a bank president: On August 5, 2021, Ethereum executed a hard fork upgrade called "London." One proposal was called EIP-1559, with a name so awkward it was hard to skip, but it changed Ethereum's fate. Before this, Ethereum, like Bitcoin, was an inflationary currency—for every block produced, a fixed amount of new ETH was minted, flowing into the market and diluting all holders' shares. EIP-1559 changed all of that. It splits the transaction fee into two parts: the base fee is permanently destroyed, and the tip goes to validators. "Burning" means: this portion of ETH completely disappears from the total supply and will never return. From that moment on, with$TRUMP TRUMP 2.5 — down 4%, team dumping weighs on price.
Rallied to 3.60 on fake new-token rumors, now fading back to 2.50.
The real pressure: team-linked wallets moved 3.837M tokens (~$9.33M) to OKX yesterday, then sold 1.1M at $2.68 avg this morning for 2.94M USDC. Over $10M in total selling hitting the market.
Eric Trump already called the new token rumors "completely untrue" and warned of scams.
Key levels: #BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap U.S. Treasury yields remain high, yet gold has surged back near a three-month high: What is the money protecting against?
Spot gold is currently around $4620–4640 per ounce from various real-time sources, having returned to the three-month high zone. Last week, gold prices rose over 5% for the week, marking a third consecutive weekly gain, with Friday’s peak reaching about $4632.
The background for this rally is clear.
The U.S. Treasury increased the repurchase scale of some 10–30 year Treasuries from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, temporarily easing pressure on long bonds, but the market has not eased concerns over the $40 trillion debt and fiscal deficit.
The U.S. dollar has instead continued to weaken, currently still near multi-month lows.
This creates a very special combination for gold:
Long-term yields are not low, yet funds are still willing to buy non-interest-bearing gold.
This indicates the market is simultaneously trading inflation, fiscal risk, and dollar purchasing power.
The technical side is also cooperating. After gold broke above the 200-day moving average around $4513 last week, buying accelerated noticeably, and $4600 has shifted from a resistance zone to a new battleground.
There are two catalysts ahead that cannot be ignored:
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will speak this week at Jackson Hole, and the U.S. will release PCE inflation data.
If the dollar continues to weaken and fiscal concerns persist, gold has the chance to test higher levels; if PCE heats up again and pushes up rate hike expectations, this three-week rally will face its first significant pressure test. #Kashkari says U.S. debt is not failing, can long bond repos fix the root problem?Bitcoin surged more than 20% last week, marking the strongest weekly performance in 24 years, reaching a high close to $79,600.
On one hand, this was driven by U.S. macro factors: U.S. Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened, lifting both Bitcoin and gold. On the other hand, ETF funds poured in aggressively, with a net inflow of $2.6 billion over the week, signaling institutional capital entering the market.
However! After such a big rally, don’t blindly chase the upside. Keep a close eye on three major events this week: PCE inflation data, Nvidia’s earnings report, and the Jackson Hole Fed speech. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
These events could very well determine whether this strong rally can continue.
The more frenzied the market, the more you should avoid preemptively betting on direction. Wait for the news to unfold and observe the market’s real reaction before making a move. Why can the Treasury's buyback operation catalyze an ETF explosion, and why does the market not believe it?
Last Wednesday, the Treasury announced it would double the scale of its long-term bond buybacks, raising the single transaction cap from $2 billion to $4 billion. After the news broke, the 30-year US Treasury yield dropped sharply, $BTC rose more than 23% for the week, $ETH increased by 31%, and spot ETFs attracted $2.6 billion in one week, marking the strongest week since 2026.
But looking closely, this matter is far more complicated than it appears.
Why did the market initially buy into it?
The Treasury’s signal is clear: the Treasury is willing to actively manage long-term interest rates. Although this is not QE, the effect is very similar—exchanging short-term Treasury bills for long-term bonds, pushing down discount rates, which naturally opens up valuation space for risk assets.
More critically, this move reignited the "dollar depreciation trade." When the government intervenes in the bond market, the market immediately questions: can fiscal discipline still be trusted? Is the dollar’s credit still stable? As a result, money starts flowing out of the dollar and Treasuries, rushing into assets with capped supply like BTC and gold. Last week, BTC’s correlation with gold surged above 0.5, while its correlation with the S&P 500 dropped close to zero—it’s increasingly resembling "digital gold."
Additionally, BTC had been consolidating for six weeks with a large short position built up. Once policy catalyzed the market, roughly $4.5 billion of shorts were liquidated, and passive buying pushed prices higher. Spot ETFs, as the most convenient and compliant institutional channel, naturally became the main battleground for capital inflows.
In short, the buyback ignited the fire, the dollar depreciation narrative fueled it, the short squeeze fanned the flames, and the ETF capital inflows prove institutions are genuinely putting money in.
Why does the market not believe it anymore?
Last week, the 30-year Treasury yield almost fully retraced its decline, but the dollar fell, gold rose, and BTC did not retreat. Asset prices and bond yields moved in opposite directions—this itself indicates the market does not believe the Treasury can keep long-term rates suppressed.
The core reason is simple: this is not QE. It merely adjusts the debt maturity structure without creating new base money or reducing government financing needs. In a $32 trillion to $40 trillion bond market, a single $4 billion buyback is less than 0.05%. The DWS fixed income head put it bluntly: "Throwing tissues into a tsunami."
A deeper issue is the erosion of policy credibility. This buyback came only two weeks after the August 5 quarterly refinancing plan, with no prior warning from the Treasury, abruptly breaking the "regular and predictable" principle maintained since the 1970s. In the short term, it saved about $200 million in financing costs on the 20-year Treasury auction; but in the long term, once the market doubts the Treasury’s strategic intent, future Treasury purchases will demand higher risk premiums. A tactical win but a potential strategic loss.
Deutsche Bank’s Akiki Osamu hit the nail on the head: "The Treasury can buy back its own bonds, but it cannot buy back the dollar."
What really matters
This Treasury operation is essentially a tactical "circuit breaker"—it can temporarily slow selling but cannot change the fundamentals of high deficits, stubborn inflation, and continuously supplied debt.
The real watershed will be Fed Chair Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The Treasury can influence the debt maturity structure, but only the Fed can anchor inflation expectations. Whether ETF funds continue to flow in ultimately depends on whether the Treasury’s "circuit breaker" can be supported by Waller’s "anchor."
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
"Kashkari Insists US Debt Has Not Failed: How Does the Treasury's Single $4 Billion Buyback Inject Liquidity into the Market?"
As the 30-year US Treasury yield just surged to a high of 5.25%, Bitcoin stepped onto $78,000.
Kashkari firmly insists the bond market is not being bailed out, yet the Treasury doubled the single long-term bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion.
All hawkish talk, but behind the scenes it's real cash fiscal hidden liquidity injection.
The Fed holds firm at a high 3.75% interest rate, while the Treasury, pressured by debt interest, uses deposits directly to buy bonds.
Macro hedging and currency depreciation buying have built a support base at the $77,000 level, with anti-inflation funds completing a full turnover.
Spot base positions hold firm above 60%, leverage compressed below 2x, with stop-loss welded below $74,500. $BTC $TRUMP brothers, remember one iron rule: never touch any coin related to the Trump family.
Last week, the TRUMP team transferred 3.83 million coins (9.33 million dollars) to OKX, then started offloading through one-sided liquidity in the early morning, already selling 1.1 million coins for 2.94 million USDC.
The pattern is always the same: first release news to generate attention → pump a wave → then the team starts dumping hard. A country's president doing this kind of operation, honestly, is even more ruthless than a market maker.
The ultimate fate of coins like $TRUMP and $WLFI is zero. The team still holds plenty of coins; every pump is just an opportunity for you to exit.
Remember: if the market maker of a coin is the project team itself, and the project team is politicians, think about who your opponents are? How can you possibly win?
Stay away from Trump family tokens; this is a lesson bought with real money.
#TRUMP #WLFI #AvoidPitfalls #CuttingLeeks $ETH is rallying enthusiastically, but one development aspect is worth monitoring: Ethereum researchers are rushing to close the zkEVM security gap before December. The better.codes competition benchmarks Ethereum's abstract security goals against actual verification, but there are still coverage gaps.
This is not negative news; it is precisely Ethereum's moat. Other chains fix security incidents after the fact, while Ethereum proactively offers bounties to find vulnerabilities. Some developers say this is like stress-testing a house, reinforcing it before an earthquake hits. Security investment is an implicit value; no one prices it in a bull market, but in a bear market, it is lifesaving.
Other on-chain data is also healthy: median Gas fee is $0.055, with nearly one million active addresses. No issues on-chain; problems lie in sentiment and leverage.
Conclusion: bullish in the medium term. 2,370 is short-term support. Security patches landing and ETF inflows are two major supports. Blindly dollar-cost average below 2,200, and take profits in batches above $2,500.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 If Anthropic files for an IPO, what I most want to see is not whether its final valuation can catch up with SpaceX, but a set of very realistic data:
How much money does it actually cost to burn for every 1 dollar of revenue earned?
In the past, it was difficult to value large model companies because private market disclosures were limited. We know the models are getting stronger, but it's hard to truly compare revenue quality, reasoning costs, customer structure, and cash burn.
The biggest significance of the IPO is to lay all these things on the table.
Then the market can finally compare:
How much does Anthropic's gross margin differ from traditional SaaS companies? Can AI revenue growth cover computing power investment? How stable are enterprise customers?
Even the entire large model businesses like OpenAI and Google Gemini might gain new valuation benchmarks.
So I believe the greatest value of Anthropic going public may not be creating a new AI star stock.
It could become the first public valuation yardstick for the entire large model industry.
AI has been talking about the future for years, and now the capital market is finally starting to seriously do the math.
And I have always believed: a true sign of an industry's maturity is when the story can ultimately be verified by numbers.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX Recently, Grayscale submitted an application for a Zcash ETF, sparking high market speculation. Many people fantasize that privacy coins can replicate the explosive growth path of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. But this illusion must be shattered: no matter how institutions package or submit documents, ZEC as a privacy coin faces three irreconcilable contradictions in underlying technology, regulatory logic, and compliance mechanisms to truly pass compliant ETF approval. A paper application ≠ actual approval, and short-term speculative hype ≠ long-term compliant implementation. Below, the logic is thoroughly explained from four aspects: core contradictions, regulatory red lines, practical paradoxes, and market risks. 1. Direct opposition in underlying value: ETFs require full-chain traceability, while the core of privacy coins is transaction concealment. Since the inception of ETF products, regulators have required transparency in underlying asset custody, traceability of transaction chains, monitoring of fund flows, and compliance with KYC/AML anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing. Bitcoin and Ethereum can be approved because on-chain data is fully public, addresses are traceable, fund flows can be completely reconstructed by on-chain analysis tools, and custodial institutions must place assets in publicly verifiable addresses subject to regulatory inspection at any time. The core value of $ZEC is precisely to use zero-knowledge proofs to enable shielded address (z-address) transactions—hiding sender, receiver, and transaction amount. For compliant custody, licensed custodians like Coinbase can only hold ZEC in transparent addresses (t-address), completely unable to use the native shielded privacy features—effectively nullifying ZEC’s core privacy value: • Custody using transparent addresses $ETH consolidates at a high level, more intriguing than a strong pull-up
ETH rose nearly 30% in a week, reaching a high of $2,500 before retreating to around $2,420 to consolidate. It doesn’t crash when rising, nor panic when falling; this pattern is healthier than another big bullish candle — chips are changing hands, sentiment is cooling down, and building momentum is more valuable than rushing to the top.
The capital structure of this rebound needs to be analyzed separately: about $1.2 billion in short liquidations acted as a catalyst, while ETF net inflows exceeding $680 million in a single week were the real fuel. One is a price-level impulse, the other a capital-level qualitative change; their natures are completely different.
The key now is not whether ETH can retest $2,500, but whether capital is starting to flow internally within the ecosystem. AAVE rose over 10%, UNI about 5%, which is no coincidence — as ETH strengthens, on-chain lending and trading demand benefit first. If this transmission continues, the market is shifting from a single asset rally to sector-wide diffusion. AAVE is the flexible offensive position, UNI is the sentiment thermometer.
But the iron rule is that chasing laggards hurts more than leading assets. The direction can be optimistic, but position size must not get out of control. 🔥This time BTC is not a “risk asset rebound,” but has been re-priced as a “hard asset in a debt spiral.”
The driving force has shifted from “rate cut expectations + ETF debut” to “US debt credit + non-sovereign scarcity.”
1) The Treasury’s buyback slightly leveraged long-term rates but didn’t rescue them. The Fed raised the long bond buyback cap from 2 billion to over 4 billion; the 10Y yield briefly fell but returned to 4.74% on 8/24, 30Y at 5.28%, Brent crude at 92.7; the total US debt officially surpassed 40 trillion, two years earlier than expected. Bridgewater’s Dalio publicly endorsed: “Under full fiscal stress, BTC and similar scarce non-sovereign assets are excellent hedges” — the weight of this statement is on a completely different level than the 2021 “institutions buying a little.”
2) The BTC/gold ratio is strengthening, indicating a narrative shift. On 8/24, BTC to gold ratio reached 16.73 ounces, the highest since May; Strive CEO Matt Cole directly said, “A double breakout against gold and the dollar = end of the bear market.” In the last cycle, BTC was 99% correlated with the Nasdaq; this cycle it’s 94% correlated with gold — it’s moving from “high beta tech stock” toward “scarce settlement layer” halfway.
$BTC Based on today's operations and trends of the $CARDS CARDS token, it reminded me of at least two previous bull and bear market cycles I experienced. Back then, you could make some money in the bear market, but not in the bull market. The main reason was not knowing when to sell, and the core issue behind not knowing when to sell was "greed":
1. Blindly injecting faith:
I was based on value investing, always thinking that a coin I thoroughly researched was a very precious opportunity. I thought this coin was very valuable, which is the so-called "injecting faith." Actually, even though there were many unrealized profits, you didn't know how to take profits, which led to everything falling back in the end. So, the "value" mentioned here is actually not withstandable under scrutiny. Not to mention your small coin, even Bitcoin's value is still being debated nowadays. Therefore, all value is a false demand.
2. Fantasizing about high multiples and small market cap traps:
Always thinking a coin can multiply 5 or 10 times, and then always buying some small market cap coins, which is also very bad. Small market cap means very high risk. For example, coins like gear and umee that I bought before have already been delisted. On the contrary, the coins I can make money from are PUMP and morpho, both with market caps within the top 150. $ETH continues to benefit from ETF flows and a broader recovery in risk appetite, showing stronger relative strength and higher elasticity than $BTC . Technically, ETH’s recovery trend remains intact. However, after such a sharp catch-up rally, positioning can become increasingly crowded. A controlled, low-volume pullback would be healthy and could allow the market to reset before another move higher. The key risk is $BTC. If Bitcoin loses strength, ETH’s higher beta could work both ways and am$BTC slowed its upward momentum after breaking above $77,000, with large spot buy orders and short-term profit-taking chips meeting head-on in this range.
The unrealized profit ratio of short-term holders on-chain surged sharply from 26.1% to 74.9%, and the net profit and loss of short-term positions flowing into exchanges in a single day soared to 28,600 coins, quickly revealing the pressure of cashing out high-position chips.
The wave of selling pressure is being absorbed by compliant capital channels. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net weekly inflow of about $2.6 billion, combined with liquidity expectations released by the expansion of US Treasury repo scale, providing strong buy-side support for the spot market.
This indicates that the market has shifted from being driven by short liquidations to being led by spot, with large off-exchange funds taking over short-term unrealized profit chips flowing out at high levels.
If the ETF's weekly inflow pace remains stable and the short-term profit-taking chips moved to exchanges fall back near the equilibrium line, spot buying will fully absorb the unrealized profit positions and push the price to firmly hold above the $78,000 resistance.
If institutional net inflows break down and short-term profit-taking continues concentrated selling, the accumulated unrealized profit sell-off will force the price to retrace to the $74,000 to $75,000 support zone to seek liquidity.
When spot ETF capital flow turns to a single-day net outflow, the existing liquidity absorption logic will be broken.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the spot ETF can maintain a single-day net inflow trend after digesting the initial wave of buying.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%This BTC trade is a typical high-leverage directional bet, 20x long, profiting from trend continuation, enduring the amplified pullback pain.
Entry price 78,039.00, direction long, position size $99,996, quantity 1.28136.
This kind of trade looks fierce, but the biggest fear isn’t lack of profit; it’s when you get overconfident and see yourself as a god, then the market pulls back, wiping out unrealized gains and breaking your mindset first.
20x leverage isn’t for showing off courage, it’s to amplify your judgment. Right means fast profits, wrong means fast death, especially with volatile assets like BTC. No stop loss, stubborn holding, reckless adding to position basically just warms the exchange’s pockets.
Honestly watch the direction, don’t confuse emotions with logic. When your position is big, no matter how tough you talk, it won’t help.
Cut losses when you should, don’t wait for liquidation to make the decision for you. Brothers, today let's talk about a real beast that has truly outperformed the market — $HYPE.
Just checked the data, HYPE is currently around $78.6. It once surged past $83 this morning to hit a new all-time high. Although it has pulled back somewhat, it still boasts a gain of over 40% in the past 7 days. The cumulative gain this year is 214%, with a market cap surpassing $20 billion, having overtaken Dogecoin to break into the top nine by global market cap. Bitcoin has dropped 25% this year, ETH down 35% — but HYPE is partying solo.
🚀 What happened? Three fires ignited the all-time high
First fire: Trump’s shout-out ignited sentiment
On August 19, Trump stated at a White House press conference that the CFTC chairman is working to allow Hyperliquid to enter the US market in a "fully compliant and legal manner." The news caused HYPE to surge 17% that day, and the momentum continued over the following days, pushing it above $83.
Second fire: Explosive revenue and aggressive buybacks
Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue is incredibly strong. In the past 30 days, platform trading volume reached hundreds of billions of dollars, with annualized revenue around $600 million to $950 million. Since November 2024, the protocol has cumulatively repurchased and burned 462 million HYPE tokens, worth about $1.27 billion — equivalent to 99% of protocol fees being used for buybacks. From August 19 to 20 alone, buybacks exceeded $7.4 million.
Third fire: AQAv2 upgrade about to launch
On August 26, Hyperliquid will initiate the AQAv2 upgrade, channeling about 90% of the income generated from the platform’s over $5 billion USDC reserves into the buyback mechanism. Market insiders estimate this could add an extra $135 million to $160 million in annual buyback volume. This provides continuous buying support for the price.
📊 How’s the chart looking?
HYPE is currently in a price discovery phase, with no historical resistance levels above to reference.
· Current price: $78.6, intraday high $83+
· Upward targets: $85, $90, $100 — $100 is already being discussed
· Support below: $76-$78 (recent breakout zone), $74-$75 (first defense line), if broken, $70-$72 will be a deeper watch zone
Risk signals: Daily RSI is approaching 80, seriously overbought; open interest has broken $13 billion, a record high. If bullish momentum breaks, deleveraging and correction could be extremely severe.
💰 Viewpoint: Strong, but don’t go all-in at the all-time high
HYPE could be one of the strongest narratives in 2026: US regulatory access expectations + ultra-high revenue + continuous buyback and burn + product upgrades, four drivers pushing simultaneously. But the short-term rise from $50 to $83 is over 60%. Profit-taking after a surge is normal.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: Wait for a pullback to $76-$78 to confirm stabilization, stop loss at $74, target $85-$90
· Short: Light short positions can be tried near $83-$85 if the rebound is weak, tight stop loss, target $78-$80 — but counter-trend top fishing carries significant risk
· Leverage: Within 3x, 5x volatility is like giving away money
· Risk warning: RSI overbought + OI at historic highs, corrections after rapid rises may be sudden and fierce
💰 Today’s P&L: No action on HYPE yet, waiting for a pullback. Let’s chat in the comments, did anyone catch this $83 new high? 👇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 $SOL is not lacking narrative now, just a good price!
This governance vote is worth paying attention to: it proposes to increase the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, expecting to reach a terminal inflation of 1.5% in about 3 years instead of the originally planned 6 years; it is estimated that about 18.9 million fewer SOL will be issued over the next 6 years, which corresponds to roughly a $1.5 billion reduction in supply based on the current model.
My view: this is generally positive for SOL's valuation in the long term, but in the short term, don't treat "deflation" as a pump button. The key cost is a decrease in staking rewards, pressure on profits for some small validators, and currently some institutions have publicly opposed this proposal.
In terms of strategy, you can accumulate SOL in batches when it pulls back to key support; if the vote passes and there is a volume breakout, add more positions; if the news is priced in and the price falls, then wait for a second opportunity.