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I wonder if the teachers have been paying attention to $XRP recently
The on-chain data is quite interesting, trading volume is increasing, which is a good thing, but the number of accounts is decreasing.
DEX daily average trading volume is 3.57 million XRP, a year-on-year increase of 79%,
but the number of accounts initiating trades has dropped from 1860 per day to 1100.
Each account trades an average of 3200 $XRP per day, compared to only 1070 a year ago, showing a clear increase in concentration.
The scale of tokenized assets has surged from 99 million to 4.26 billion, increasing more than 40 times over six quarters.
However, I think on-chain activity is now concentrating among fewer, larger players, with retail investors retreating and institutions entering.
It gives me the impression that after compliance, large funds are slowly taking over the positions of small retail investors, but with prices like this, it’s still not much use for us small retail investors #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ The first night after the non-farm payrolls, the market gave the answer: strong employment data = higher interest rate pressure.
The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, far exceeding the expected 55,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. After the rate hike expectations heated up, BTC fell from around $82.4K to about $79.7K, down 1.2% in 24 hours; ETH dropped to about $2,458, down 1.9% in 24 hours.
Notably, funds did not fully withdraw during the price decline: BTC spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of $175 million yesterday, and ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $25.9 million. This indicates that currently macro pressure is outweighing ETF buying, rather than a complete shift of institutional funds.
Key levels for the weekend:
BTC: $78.7K support, only by reclaiming $80K can it challenge $81.4K;
ETH: $2,435—$2,400 support, $2,500 has become resistance again.
My judgment: short-term shifts from a strong breakout to consolidation digestion. Weekend liquidity is relatively low, so it is not advisable to chase highs or sell lows; first, watch if the support can hold. #OKX预言家：September FOMC Interest Rate Decision Forecast Online
For the September FOMC, the market is evenly split on betting on a rate hike
The real trading for the September 16 FOMC is now very clear:
Hold at 3.50%–3.75%: about 49%
Raise by 25bp: about 49%
Other scenarios: about 2%
Kalshi currently has almost an even split on both sides, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $37 million.
In early August, the market once gave a probability of over 60% for a September rate hike; then, with expectations of weak employment, the probability dropped to about 44%. After the non-farm payrolls release on September 4, with August adding 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 55,000, the probability of a rate hike rose back to about 60%.
Moreover, the July FOMC itself already showed significant divergence: ultimately, 9 votes to hold, 3 votes to raise by 25bp, which is an important background for the current market bet on a September hike.
What really matters now is:
Is employment strong or not → Can inflation continue to come down → Does the Fed need to raise by another 25bp.
The market has no clear answer yet.
If CPI remains high, the probability of a rate hike may break above 60% again; if inflation cools significantly, funds will quickly return to “hold steady.”The emperor takes turns sitting on the throne, and this time the privacy coin $DASH finally got its turn, with a 40% surge that finally brought some relief.
But everyone, take note: this is not simply the first dragon $ZEC rising followed by the second dragon; it just so happens that DASH itself has independent positive news:
1. Dash's offline conference became a catalyst. Yesterday's offline meeting held in Amsterdam announced two things: integrating AI inference directly into payment scenarios; completing mobile privacy payment testing.
2. At the same time, the ecosystem also upgraded, with the Dash mainnet going live, adding decentralized storage and domain name systems, making DASH not just a payment coin but also expanding its application scenarios and project narrative.
3. Of course, the real trigger was Grayscale launching the Zcash trust on the 25th, which directly heated up the privacy sector. Retail investors started sweeping the entire privacy track, and the three established privacy coins strengthened one after another. Essentially, DASH is still riding the wave, not the main character.
So a reminder to everyone, this time it was just good luck; otherwise, in rotation markets, the first dragon usually significantly outperforms the second dragon.
Don't buy the second dragon just because the first dragon has become expensive, because the second dragon either gets the leftovers or falls even harder. $ETH ｜ Complete Nonfarm Payroll Review Yesterday (Latest Data Revision)
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice, high risk in contracts
1. Core Nonfarm Payrolls (August)
Added 162,000 (expected 55,000), July revised from -23,000 to +21,000, total revision for the past two months 55,000; unemployment rate 4.1%, average hourly earnings year-over-year 3.1% / month-over-month 0.3%. Data released, CME shows the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September surged from ~52% to 58.4%, the dollar and 2-year US Treasury yields rose simultaneously, risk assets under pressure.
2. Market Capital Reaction
Data shock: BTC spiked to 78.6k then fell below 80k, ETH volume dropped below 2500 to around 2454; gold fell over 2% breaking 4400, overall weakness. ADP was dovish ahead, market originally priced for easing, big nonfarm reversed expectations causing a sell-off, concentrated stop losses on high long positions.
3. Logical Breakdown
1. Strong employment resilience → rate cut delay / rate hike restart, liquidity tightening expectations hammer crypto;
2. Initial drop due to liquidity pulse, subsequent oscillation and recovery without a one-sided move, true direction awaits 9.11 CPI guidance;
3. ETH has greater elasticity than BTC, after breaking down, the 2500-2550 zone above becomes new resistance, failure to rebound above this means continued weakness.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Prediction of future market trends: Ten years ago, OKX couldn't trade US stocks, and altcoins were very poor, often with various project issues causing token issuers to abscond. Nowadays, OKX can trade US stocks, Chinese concept stocks (Xiaomi and USTech), and the popularity of altcoins remains high. Bitcoin and Ethereum occupy 50-60% of the virtual currency market capitalization. Here's the issue: ten years ago, people were very poor and knew nothing about virtual currencies; ten years later, many people trade crypto. Street vendors and security guards alike secretly trade crypto; people have money now. However, compared to ten years ago, many people no longer buy spot assets but only think about playing contracts to get rich quickly. So the model has completely changed. The possibility of getting rich by buying spot assets is now very small. The virtual currency market funds no longer flow simply to mainstream coins. Therefore, the future will definitely be dominated by trading based on hot topics. Within a year, there will be several strongest hot spots; whoever follows them will profit. Market funds will remain volatile: if US stocks are strong, funds will flow into US stocks; if ETH and BTC are strong, funds will go to ETH and BTC; if altcoins are strong, everyone will go to altcoins. I call this the "pool era," which requires water changes and water releases. Moreover, fewer people will enter crypto trading later; it will become increasingly difficult for ordinary people to trade crypto. It will be purely a battle of existing funds, and we can no longer rely on new people entering crypto trading to supplement subsequent funds, at least not within the next 10 years. #The world's largest sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, managing $2.3 trillion, has proposed a portfolio adjustment plan aiming to lower the allocation weight of government bonds. It is estimated to cut nearly $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings, reallocating funds to higher-yielding U.S. agency fixed income products such as MBS. The overall dollar exposure will remain basically stable, not a complete exit from dollar assets.
This adjustment is essentially an internal structural rebalancing, with the core goal of enhancing long-term investment returns. The fund believes the current proportion of Treasury bonds is sufficient to handle liquidity crises. Against the backdrop of high U.S. Treasury yields and a large U.S. fiscal deficit, it seeks to increase returns by allocating to fixed income assets with higher premiums rather than directly bearish on the U.S. market.
Although the $80 billion scale will not immediately cause a crash relative to the massive U.S. Treasury market, the benchmark effect cannot be ignored. With global sovereign buyers continuously diversifying allocations and long-term bond yields remaining high, this news may exacerbate market concerns about the pressure to absorb U.S. Treasuries, pushing Treasury yields higher in the short term, indirectly suppressing prices of interest-free assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, while also causing disturbances to the U.S. dollar.
This proposal is currently only a suggestion and still requires approval from the Norwegian government. The actual pace of reduction will be very gradual. Going forward, the key focus is on the follow-up attitude of global long-term funds. If more sovereign funds initiate similar rebalancing, the logic of sustained pressure on U.S. Treasuries will continue to strengthen. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Why is it that even when macro data is predicted correctly, trading doesn't necessarily make money?
In the past, when facing non-farm payrolls, CPI, and interest rate meetings, I always wanted to bet on the answer in advance: go long if the data was weak, go short if the data was strong.
After losing a lot, I realized that the market doesn't trade on whether the data is good or bad, but on the difference between the data and expectations.
Cooling employment seems favorable for easing, but if the market has already priced it in, the release might trigger profit-taking; strong data should suppress risk assets, but as long as it's not as strong as expected, BTC can still rise.
What's more troublesome is that liquidity thins out instantly when data is released, prices first trigger long stops, then short stops, and although the direction ends up correct, positions have already been liquidated.
I used to open high leverage before data releases, thinking my logic was sound, but as soon as the numbers came out, a spike would hit my stop loss first, and then the market would move as predicted.
At that moment, I understood: having the right view doesn't mean the trading structure is reasonable.
Before major data releases, what really needs to be assessed is not just the result, but how much the market has already priced in, whether positions are crowded, and whether you can withstand sudden volatility. When there is no clear edge, waiting for the market to complete the first reaction is usually more important than rushing those few seconds.
Remember: data determines how the story is told, the difference in expectations determines where the price goes; guessing the numbers is just knowledge, surviving the volatility is trading.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Many people ask me why I choose JEPQ instead of QQQi, which also pays monthly dividends and has a higher yield?
First, let's look at some data:
JEPQ's stock price increased by 10.24% in the past year
Total return (stock price + dividends) 22.5%; annual dividend yield 10.82%.
QQQi's stock price increased by 3.9% in the past year
Total return (stock price + dividends) 18.9%, annual dividend yield 14.17%.
It is clear that JEPQ performed better than QQQi over the past year. But it must be said that QQQi has a higher dividend yield, sacrificing more net asset value growth potential to obtain higher dividends.
Regarding ETF fees, JEPQ's fee is 0.35%, while QQQi's fee is 0.68%.
In terms of scale, JEPQ has 41.6 billion, while QQQi has 14.2 billion. It's obvious which one has better liquidity!
From the underlying logic, JEPQ is a selection of Nasdaq individual stocks, which are actually more flexible. Combined with equity-linked notes (ELN) and a higher proportion of options operations. QQQi fully replicates the Nasdaq 100 index, and to get more dividends, it has a higher proportion of options operations.
Historical data tells me that JEPQ has smaller drawdowns in bear markets, while QQQi has not experienced a true deep bear market. For the upcoming market, I will take a conservative approach, so I definitely choose JEPQ, which has cheaper management fees, is more stable, and has better liquidity.The latest NFP print came in around 158K, slightly above expectations. On the surface, stronger jobs data can be bearish for crypto because it gives the Fed more room to keep policy restrictive. But the market is trading the rate-cut narrative, not simply the headline employment number. That shift helped drive: 🟠 $BTC: $76K → $80K+ 🔵 $ETH: $2.35K → $2.48K+ 🟢 $SOL: sharp rebound with the biggest swings The key point: this move is being powered more by expectations around future liquidity and F#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
Hawkish tone rises again: 58.6% chance of a rate hike in September, how will BTC respond this time?
CME FedWatch just updated: 58.6% probability of a 25bp hike in September, only 41.4% chance of no change.
The trigger was August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 (expected about 56,000), 2-year US Treasury yields surged to 4.37%, 10-year broke 4.78%.
Market view:
• BTC hasn’t crashed but is repeatedly grinding below 80,000; ETF inflows are also relatively weak;
• US stocks are mixed, semiconductors rally while high valuations get sold off;
• Gold jumped then pulled back, indicating funds are also betting on CPI.
My reading:
The current pricing is "strong nonfarm → more tightening needed," but the real switch is the CPI on 9/11. If CPI is also strong, the 58.6% probability could rise; if it softens, the probability will fall below 50%, and BTC might rally ahead.
So I’m neither chasing shorts nor longs, watching two things:
1. US CPI on 9/11
2. Whether BTC can reclaim and hold above 80,500
Short-term scenario: before the rate hike, a downward-biased consolidation; if the hike happens without exceeding expectations, it’s easy to "sell the rumor, buy the fact."$DASH has doubled in the past few days... but almost no one is talking about it.
$ZEC has now broken through $1000, with a market cap of about $17 billion after the first Zcash ETF listed in the US.
So, I think people are looking for the next liquid privacy testnet, and DASH's market cap is still below $1 billion.
But there are also real updates behind this.
Last month, Dash launched shielded transactions on Evolution using Zcash's Orchard technology, with a settlement time of about 1 second.
They are also building Dash to Anything, where you send DASH and the recipient receives any asset they want. Isn't that cool?
During a moderate pullback, this might be the most obvious ZEC testnet besides $NEAR.#Fed officials say rate hikes are needed, September probability rises to 58.6%
Recently, multiple Fed officials have publicly expressed hawkish views, emphasizing that inflation is falling less than expected and employment resilience is stronger than expected, necessitating room for further rate hikes.
Driven by officials' statements and stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data, the latest CME interest rate futures pricing shows the probability of a rate hike in September soaring to 58.6%, officially breaking the 50% threshold. The market has completely shifted from expecting steady rate cuts or holds to repricing the risk of rate hikes.
Personal core view
This is the biggest recent macro variable; do not underestimate the suppressive effect of rising rate hike expectations on the crypto space.
Previously, the market generally bet on the Fed's easing inflection point, with funds daring to push up risk assets; now expectations have reversed, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index may restart rebounds at any time, clearly suppressing valuations of $BTC and $ETH.
But I do not recommend excessive panic:
58.6% is just a probability increase, not a done deal. The rate hike expectations fluctuate repeatedly, and officials have divergent hawkish and dovish tones, indicating the Fed is not yet unified internally. The market will likely experience choppy pressure and repeated shakeouts rather than a one-sided crash.
Practical rhythm
Spot: Gradually reduce positions at high levels to arbitrage, keep base positions, do not open new heavy positions, patiently wait for expectations to settle.
Futures: Keep leverage low throughout, firmly avoid chasing longs at high levels, focus on very short-term pressure during rebounds.
Priority is to wait and see: Market sentiment is extremely unstable before the rate decision, with frequent spikes and false breakouts.
The macro tailwind temporarily recedes, and rate hike expectations rise again. At this stage, risks outweigh opportunities; follow the trend to control positions and trade cautiously while waiting for the final direction For the crypto world, $80,000 is definitely not an ordinary number. Just a few days ago, the market was debating whether the bull market was coming back if BTC broke through $80,000 again, and some had even started talking about the altcoin season; Now, the price has fallen back below $80,000, and market sentiment is rapidly shifting. So the question arises: is this a shakeout within a bull market, or the start of a new bear market? I believe it's too early to directly declare the "bull market is over," but just because BTC recently climbed above $80,000 again, we shouldn't easily conclude that "the bull market has returned." What truly deserves caution is that the market may be undergoing a major trend reconfirmation. 1. First, look at why it fell this time BTC fell below $80,000 this time without reason. After the release of U.S. August nonfarm payroll data, 162,000 new jobs were created, significantly exceeding market expectations and reinforcing concerns about the Federal Reserve's tight interest rate policy. After the data was released, BTC quickly fell below $80,000. (Barron's) This means that the core short-term market issue is not "whether there are stories in the crypto world," but rather: will liquidity continue to improve? The earlier BTC rebound was largely benefited by falling U.S. Treasury yields, changes in rate cut expectations, and improved risk asset sentiment. On September 3, BTC briefly broke through around $82,000, then then fell again. (Reuters) Therefore, if future macro data continues to lower the market's easing expectations, BTC wants to directly start a new main rally,Crypto KOL Qwerty's holding "Niulai" holds a floating gain of over $2.16 million, with a book return of 10 times. According to GMGN on-chain monitoring, on September 5, crypto KOL Qwerty's current "Niulai" token position had a floating gain of about $2.16 million, with a book return of about 10 times. Previously, Binance co-founder He Yi followed this KOL account and publicly called for "Niulai" to sweep the globe. According to GMGN on-chain data monitoring, on September 5, Qwerty's current holding "Niulai" token position had a floating gain of about $2.16 million, with a book return of about 10 times. This level of return is a typical case of early investment followed by a breakout, indicating early accumulation of positions with low holding costs, followed by a sharp rise in token prices and rapid accumulation of book profits. It's worth noting the chain of dissemination behind the event: Previously, Binance co-founder He Yi followed Qwerty's social media account, and then the KOL publicly called out that "Niu Lai" swept the globe. In the meme coin market, the social attention of top exchange executives is often interpreted by the community as a signal. KOLs' holdings and trading calls quickly spread within the community, attracting retail investors to follow the trend and buy, which further pushes up token prices and creates a positive feedback loop driven by attention. The essence of such market trends is narrative and traffic drive, not fundamental support. As a meme token, the price fluctuations of "Niu Lai" depend almost entirely on community sentiment, KOL influence, and capital competition. The 10x floating profit is currently just a figure, and meme coin flows are just numbersYesterday, the market punished one side. Today, it turned around and punished the other. That’s the reality of trading BTC. Yesterday: Dovish Fed expectations pushed BTC above $80K, triggering a wave of short liquidations. Today: The August U.S. jobs report came in at 162,000, far above the roughly 55,000 expected. Unemployment held at 4.1%, while Fed rate-hike odds jumped back toward 60%. BTC then reversed sharply after trading above $82K. And here’s the interesting part: Yesterday, the bulls bTrump is again calling for interest rates to be cut to 1% or even 0.5%.
Honestly, such levels are simply impossible under normal economic conditions. Historically, the U.S. has only truly pushed rates this low twice: during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic lockdown. Both times were moments when the economy was nearly collapsing.
Now inflation hasn't been fully brought down, and unemployment isn't high either. How could the Fed proactively slash rates this much? Unless something really big happens—either a financial system problem or a hard economic landing.
Trump might be trying to cool down the dollar, stimulate exports, and ease debt burdens. But the cost of such extreme easing policies has been demonstrated many times in history: asset bubbles, currency devaluation, and long-term structural distortions.
To be realistic, if rates really drop to 0.5%, it means the U.S. economy has already entered crisis mode. At that point, $exchange rate$ volatility, capital flow reversals, and global liquidity tightening will quickly trigger chain reactions across markets.
This kind of rhetoric feels more like political pressure, but the market won't buy into it prematurely. If we actually see rates like this, people won't be concerned about opportunities but about how to survive.. Today, the longs are feeling the pressure. That’s the reality of trading BTC. Yesterday: Dovish Fed expectations pushed BTC above $80K, triggering a wave of short liquidations. Today: The August U.S. jobs report came in at 162,000, far above the roughly 55,000 expected. Unemployment held at 4.1%, while Fed rate-hike odds jumped back toward 60%. BTC then reversed sharply after trading above $82K. And here’s the interesting part: Yesterday, the bulls believed they had figured out the macro pictuThe Japanese interest rate hike has already been priced in by the market, with risks emerging after September.
The Bank of Japan is increasingly inclined to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the policy meeting ending on September 18, raising the policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.
The possibility of a 50 basis point hike remains low, as the Japanese economy currently basically aligns with the Bank of Japan's previous forecasts, and there has been no change warranting a significant rate hike. However, the weak yen, rising oil prices, and accelerating service inflation have made it difficult for the Bank of Japan to remain patient.
If the rate hike occurs in September, it will be only three months since the last hike, marking the shortest interval between two hikes since Kazuo Ueda took office as Governor of the Bank of Japan in April 2023.
The market has already prepared extensively for this rate hike, so the 25 basis points itself may not cause much shock. Instead, a sudden pause by the Bank of Japan could trigger sharp fluctuations in the yen, Japanese government bonds, and global markets.
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has already surpassed 3%, increasing the attractiveness of domestic Japanese bonds. If the Bank of Japan signals possible further action in October or December, capital inflows to Japan, contraction of yen carry trades, and a decline in global liquidity will all pose risks to the market.
For the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin, Japan entering a faster rate hike cycle is likely to have a greater impact than this single rate hike itself. The index is falling, but money is flowing in.
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.13%, yet the combined net inflow of stock and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 9.157 billion.
Where is the money going? Look at the structure:
Being aggressively accumulated
▸ STAR 50 net inflow of 9.919 billion (STAR 50 ETF Huaxia +6.415 billion)
▸ ChiNext ETF E Fund +4.453 billion
▸ Semiconductor equipment, STAR chip, and non-ferrous metals sectors collectively increased positions
Being abandoned
▸ Coal ETF Guotai -2.535 billion (largest outflow)
▸ Securities ETF Guotai -1.659 billion
▸ Broker ETF Huabao -568 million
In short: this is not adding positions, but reallocating—funds are withdrawn from coal and brokers and fully invested into STAR market, ChiNext, and semiconductors.
What’s intriguing is coal: institutions still talk about "high dividends + peak winter demand + valuation cost-effectiveness," but money is fleeing fastest. Verbal optimism but actual reduction—this divergence is more worth monitoring than a one-sided signal.
What about the outlook? Mid-year earnings are generally recovering, systemic risk probability is low, and a wide-range oscillation with a bias toward strength is highly likely. Pay attention to two variables: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and policy expectations around the National Day holiday.
(This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading decisions; market risks are borne by the investor.)The pullback has been aggressive, but price action is starting to look stretched. I’ve already opened a small tactical long of 25 ETH around $2,455. The latest employment data pushed rate-hike expectations higher, with markets now pricing roughly 57% odds. That explains the sharp risk-off move we saw overnight. But strong jobs data doesn’t automatically mean crypto has to continue falling in a straight line. I’m watching the $2,430–$2,440 area closely. If sellers fail to break that zone and liquThe average holding cost of institutions has become the key resistance at present
Currently, the average holding cost of the overall US BTC spot ETF is concentrated in the $84,000‑$85,000 range. This round of rebound encountered resistance and fell back near $82,000, which is already very close to the overall institutional cost range.
This means that once the market rebounds close to this range, a large amount of trapped institutional chips will be released from losses, and the selling pressure from these releases will be directly unleashed.
In contrast, ETH entered the ETF market later, with a lower overall holding cost, so the pressure from selling to break even is less than that of BTC.
Simply put: for the same rebound, the $BTC has heavy break-even chips above; $ETH’s pressure mainly comes from trapped positions on the market rather than ETF institutional break-even selling.
The sources of pressure for the subsequent rebound rallies are completely different for the two.
Storing for an upward rebound, while I am losing badly $ETH 1. Last night's non-farm payroll report was a typical strong employment report, bearish for the crypto market, directly suppressing the recent optimistic expectations of a "quick rate cut".
2. It changes short-term market sentiment but cannot definitively determine the long-term trend; next, focus on the CPI inflation data, which is the Fed's most important indicator.
3. Non-farm night leveraged contracts carry extremely high risk; last night many longs were liquidated by stop-loss spikes. Even if the overall direction is bullish, this macro data window is not suitable for heavy leveraged bets. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC - New nonfarm payrolls: 162,000, market expectation was only 56,000, significantly exceeding expectations (almost 3 times the forecast)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, in line with expectations, no change
- Average hourly earnings YoY: 3.1%, expected 3.0%, wages slightly higher than expected but not explosively rising
- Key point: July data was significantly revised from the original -23,000 to +21,000; combined revision for June and July is an upward adjustment of 55,000 jobs, indicating that the previously observed weakening in employment was an illusion, actual employment is very strong.
For the crypto market: this is negative for nonfarm payrolls
Logic: Super strong employment indicates strong resilience in the US economy, inflation is unlikely to fall quickly, the market bets that the Fed's rate cuts will be further delayed, and a rate hike in September is not ruled out. US Treasury yields and the dollar rose directly, suppressing risk assets (BTC, ETH).
Market reaction after data release
1. BTC quickly dropped from around 82,000, directly breaking below the 80,000 USD level
2. ETH fell below 2,500 USD, short-term rapid decline, altcoins fell even more
3. Massive long liquidations in the futures market, short-term long liquidation scale close to 300 million USD, aggressive stop-loss hunting
4. US 2-year Treasury yield surged, dollar index strengthened, gold simultaneously plunged
But there is a buffer point
Wages only slightly exceeded expectations, no violent surge.
If wages had also exploded significantly, that would have been an extremely strong negative factor.Why did SanDisk surge $SNDK
Logical reasoning analysis: SanDisk and Dell will be included in the S&P 100 on September 21
Cut losses or SanDisk is about to be added to the S&P 100, effective September 21! But this arbitrage logic is completely different from last year's inclusion in the S&P 500! Don't rush blindly! The passive capital pool of the S&P 100 is fundamentally different from that of the S&P 500. Plus, September 18 coincides with the "Quadruple Witching Day"
Market makers' Gamma hedging combined with index rebalancing—will it create a deep pit or a huge spike?
$SNDK $SKHYNIX Anthropic is also aiming for a $2 trillion valuation, AI companies really do make money 😅
#Anthropic冲击2万亿美元IPO估值
Anthropic, the creator of Claude, is reportedly pushing for an IPO valuation of about $2 trillion.
I'm more interested in seeing the prospectus to find out how much is left after deducting the costs of computing power and cloud channel shares from the money paid by customers. Rapid revenue growth is impressive, of course, but the profits on the books need to keep up with this valuation.
Friends in the crypto world should be very familiar with this feeling: the project is indeed impressive, but after buying in, you realize that the early investors' profits have already been accounted for in advance, and your own profits have to wait for future realization.$ZEC ZEC has now broken through 1000, with a current market cap of 17 billion, directly surging to around the 10th position on CMC by market cap. It has risen about 94% in the past month. Its rise is no longer purely fundamental; it has fully entered a short squeeze phase. In the most recent surge, approximately 36.6 million USD worth of ZEC contracts were liquidated, of which about 34.5 million USD were shorts. Meanwhile, ZEC futures open interest has reached about 2.3 billion USD.
After this short squeeze ends, if there is no new incremental buying, the pullback will be very rapid. Last November, after breaking the new high of 700, it was halved within a week, dropping to 300, and bottomed at 200. At that time, no one was talking about privacy coin narratives or technical upgrades.
It's okay to miss this rally, just don't miss the crash; a crash is also a money-making opportunity.
"If you are bullish, go long; if not, go short."#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
I believe whether BTC's momentum of outperforming gold after surpassing 80,000 can continue mainly depends on whether spot demand can absorb the sell orders in the $80,000 to $82,500 range.
There are three sets of data as the basis for judgment. First, the US spot BTC ETF saw overall net inflows in August, but at the beginning of September, the capital flow shifted from one-sided buying to two-way fluctuations, indicating institutions have not yet formed continuous buying momentum. Second, one BTC can currently be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, a ratio that has reached a new high since January this year. The 90-day correlation between the two has also risen to the highest level since 2020, showing that the narratives of debt expansion and declining monetary purchasing power are simultaneously driving both asset classes. Third, key figures' actions: Jiang Zhuoer fully liquidated near $82,050, while Yi Lihua and Scaramucci remain bullish. This divergence itself indicates that the chip structure above 80,000 is not solid.
Currently, OKX spot BTC maintains a high level, supported by cooling interest rate hike expectations and falling US Treasury yields, but these two factors belong to macro liquidity-level support, not aggressive buying funds. The real direction is decided by the ETF side—if net inflows in September can recover, the 80,000 integer level can turn from resistance into strong support; if two-way fluctuations or net outflows continue, the sell orders between $80,000 and $82,500 will repeatedly suppress the price.
@OKX星球 Recently, a familiar voice has emerged in the market: Is the altcoin season coming? ETH/BTC is strengthening, some mainstream altcoins are clearly outperforming BTC, and market sentiment is gradually shifting from "just buying Bitcoin" to high-risk assets. On the surface, the altcoin season seems to be showing signs of it. But if you look at the longer timeline, it feels more like a warm-up for the altcoin season than a full launch. A very important indicator is the Altcoin Season Index. By common definition, only when the vast majority of mainstream altcoins have consistently outperformed BTC over the past 90 days is it closer to a true altcoin season. Currently, the index is still only around 28, still far from the 75 confirmation line. What's even more noteworthy is BTC's market share. Currently, Bitcoin's market share remains around 60% or even higher. A true full-fledged counterfeit season usually requires seeing BTC's rise slow down or even sideways movement, while funds continue to spread from BTC to ETH, and then to small and mid-cap assets. Currently, this capital rotation has not fully formed. Therefore, I tend to define the current market as: "Local altcoin rallies are happening, but the real altcoin season has not yet been confirmed." The difference between the two is very important. If only a few AI, DeFi, MEME, or certain popular narratives suddenly surge, it is likely just a clustering of funds rather than an overall altcoin market bull market. The market structure in 2026 will also be different from before, with institutional funds more concentrated in BTC, and the number and supply of tokens significantly increasedThere was only one thing in the global market this week: nonfarm payrolls at 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000. The probability of a rate hike in September rose to about 60%. BTC fell from 82K to 79K; US stocks rose in storage but consumption fell; A-shares in the STAR Market fell 5% for the first 50 weeks. The direction hasn't been revealed yet, but the answer is approaching. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🪙 Crypto | BTC hits a weekly low of 76.9K, nonfarm payrolls smash back to 79K BTC followed a classic pattern this week: "shake out first, then rally, then crash back." From Monday to Thursday, BTC surged from around 77,300 to 82,300, hitting a new high since May. On Thursday, volume surged and it broke through 82,000. On Friday, the nonfarm payroll was 162,000 vs. the expected 56,000, with rate hike expectations rising from about 52% to about 60%. BTC fell from 82K to 79,568, now at about 79,700. This week's volatility is about 7% (low 76,968→ high 82,300). ETH is weak, with nearly zero weekly gains. Strong Phishing Differentiation — ZEC approaches $1,000, privacy coins surge; Layer 2/DeFi lines surged then retreated, ARB/UNI are both falling. 💡 Uncle's observation: 82K is sentiment, 79K is reality. The nonfarm rolls have already pinned the "rate hike probability" near 60%. Next week's CPI will be the real verdict. BTC fluctuates around 79KMany people still associate ZEC with "an old privacy coin from a few years ago" or "a risky asset that could be delisted by exchanges at any time." But recently, ZEC's market has been exceptionally strong, not only surging nearly 20% in a single day, but also seeing a comprehensive explosion in trading volume and capital attention.
Simply put, it has mainly achieved three things recently:
1. It has hitched a ride on traditional US stock market funds (the core catalyst).
Grayscale's Zcash Trust (ZCSH) successfully debuted on the NYSE Arca in the US stock market.
In plain terms: this is equivalent to opening a compliant green channel for large institutions and traditional brokerage accounts in the US stock market to buy ZEC. Institutions don’t need to register on crypto exchanges; they can buy it like stocks using their US stock accounts. In just a few weeks, the product’s assets under management soared to over $400 million, directly absorbing more than 420,000 ZEC.
2. Tokens have been locked up in concentrated holdings, making the circulating supply lighter.
ZEC’s total supply is capped at 21 million, the same as Bitcoin, so its token structure is relatively tight.
Behind the nearly 20% single-day net asset value surge of the Grayscale product is real money buying and locking tokens in the secondary market. With selling pressure exhausted and institutional incremental funds entering, the circulating supply was naturally "pulled up" with ease.
3. The market’s pricing of "privacy" has changed.
Previously, the market thought "privacy = money laundering = regulatory crackdown." Now the perception is: "controllable privacy" has become an extremely scarce and essential demand. $ZEC $BTC This Week's Macro Highlights: Nonfarm Payrolls Rekindle Fed Rate Hike Expectations! What Should Retail Investors Do Next?
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, three times the expected amount! The probability of a Fed rate hike in September instantly surged to 60%, causing Bitcoin to drop from 82,000 to 79,000.
This is not just simple negative news but a market re-pricing of an "extended rate hike cycle." The US-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude oil above $95, adding to inflationary pressures. Citi has already postponed rate cut expectations to mid-2027.
Old Zhang's view is clear: the current macro liquidity tightening window has been extended, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets is moving downward. But strangely, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of as much as $3.8 billion over the past three weeks. Institutions are bottom-fishing while retail investors panic; this sense of division is a true reflection.
For the crypto market, the CPI data next Wednesday before the September 15 FOMC meeting is crucial. If CPI exceeds expectations again, the probability of a rate hike could break 70%, and Bitcoin will likely continue to test support at 75,000–77,000; if CPI falls back, a dual rebound of "cooling rate hike expectations + continued institutional buying" may occur.
What should retail investors do now? Avoid heavy bets before the direction is clear. Position control is more important than anything else. But I don’t think the real flush has started yet. Bitcoin just pushed back above $81K earlier this week, while $ZEC and $HYPE also broke into fresh highs. The important part is that risk appetite is expanding — at least for now. But macro risk is building underneath. August payrolls came in at +162K, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. That pushed September Fed rate-hike expectations sharply higher, with markets pricing roughly a 60%+ probability of a hike ahead of thHyperliquid entering the US market might not be as simple as walking in with a passport.
Instead, it’s about "borrowing a door."
Currently, Hyperliquid is negotiating with Payward to bring some Hyperliquid-related perpetual contracts to US users through Bitnomial, which is regulated by the CFTC under Payward.
Because the hardest part of the US market has never been whether there are users.
It’s whether you can get past the regulatory gate.
And Bitnomial, held by Payward, happens to already have a regulatory framework for exchange, clearing, and brokerage operations.
So the truly interesting part of this is that on-chain DEXs are actively seeking compliant interfaces with TradFi.
Before, it was:
On-chain markets running away from regulation.
Now it’s:
I don’t necessarily have to move the chain into the US.
But I can put my trading products into a compliant US box.
More importantly, HYPE.
A significant portion of Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue will be used to buy back HYPE from the market, which means that theoretically, trading volume growth can translate into token demand.
But don’t rush to calculate how much HYPE the US market can push.
They haven’t even gotten regulatory approval yet.
What’s really worth watching is, after this door opens, whether the new trading volume in the US can actually turn into new value capture for HYPE.
Otherwise, users come in.
Who really profits from compliance?
$HYPE $BTC $DASH DASH surged then pulled back, what to do if your long positions are stuck? Should you be bullish or bearish at the current position?
DASH surged to around 74 then quickly pulled back, but there is no clear breakdown so far. The sideways support around 67 is still holding, and the bullish structure has not been broken yet.
So, I’m not panicking here. I’m placing long positions again near 67, aiming to profit from the rebound after this pullback.
My view #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
If 67 holds, continue to be bullish with a target near 74.
If 64 is effectively broken, cut losses promptly and don’t stubbornly hold on.$BTC | $ETH | $SOL THE REAL CATALYST
NFP came in at 162K, beating expectations normally a bearish signal for crypto as strong employment can keep the Fed hawkish.
But the market focused on something else: pressure for rate cuts.
That narrative quickly pushed:
BTC: $77K → $81K+
ETH: → $2.5K+
SOL: strong rebound with the highest volatility.
This rally is expectation-driven, not growth-driven. #HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the most painful part is that this is not like a typical rate hike trade.
The short end watches the Fed, the long end watches trust. Whether the market is willing to buy long-term U.S. Treasuries is essentially a vote on whether the U.S. fiscal situation can remain stable over the coming decades, whether inflation will repeatedly flare up again, and whether overseas buyers are still willing to take over. Now that yields are high, it’s not just that "interest is more attractive," but also that price volatility is scarier.
Many people see long-term bond yields rising and their first reaction is to think they can buy. But the harshest reality of long-term bonds is that while the coupon looks comfortable, losses from duration are very real. After debt pressure heats up, Treasury buybacks, central bank statements, and cooling data may bring some relief, but as long as buyers start demanding higher compensation, the market will keep being worn down by this issue.
#长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 #ZEC hits new all-time high
The current situation with $ZEC is probably most painful not for those who didn't buy, but for those who bought at $800 and feel it's overpriced, those who hesitate to chase the price at $900, and those who are waiting for a pullback at $1000.
As a result, it pushed up again.
ZEC recently surged to around $1,050, continuously setting new highs over the past decade. Just a month ago, it was hovering around $500, and now it has nearly doubled. Over the past 30 days, it has risen by nearly 94%, and in the past year, it has surged by more than 2,300%.
To be honest, this trend can no longer be explained simply by the phrase "privacy coin hype."
After the launch of Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF, it has already brought in at least $34.4 million in net inflows; meanwhile, the narrative around privacy has resurfaced, and miner hash power has entered the scene, with capital, narrative, and chips all converging at the right moment.
The most ruthless are the short sellers.
When $ZEC broke through $1,000, approximately $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with $34.5 million of those being short positions.
This is very much like the cryptocurrency world.
The more people think "it's so high that it must fall," the more they open short positions; the more short positions there are, the higher the price rises, and the forced liquidation orders turn into buy orders, ultimately fueling the upward movement for the short sellers themselves.
From $500 to $1,000, you can rely on trends, but above $1,000, it's all about emotions, liquidity, and who ends up holding the bag!
ZEC's strong breakout has directly driven DASH, ZEN, and XMR to rise in tandem, fully igniting the privacy coin sector!$BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
SanDisk's surge of nearly 12% is not because NAND suddenly increased in price, but because capital finally realized— even if price hikes slow down, storage remains an indispensable part of AI infrastructure.
On September 4th, SanDisk closed at $1740, soaring 11.9% in a single day, becoming the S&P 500's top gainer that day. The storage sector collectively rallied, with SK Hynix up over 8%, Micron up over 6%, and even more impressively, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.4%—while the broader market fell, chips were rising, and capital was moving from software to hardware.
The direct trigger was Dell's earnings report. Dell's quarterly AI server revenue exceeded expectations, and its full-year AI server shipment guidance was raised from $15 billion to $20 billion. The market immediately reacted—capital withdrew from software stocks and poured into storage and semiconductor equipment.
But the truth about price hikes is—NAND prices are indeed still rising, just at a slower pace. In Q3, NAND prices across all categories maintained a month-over-month increase, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to Q2, with some categories' month-over-month increases narrowing to under 10%.
At the end of August, SanDisk announced a joint investment with Kioxia exceeding $31 billion to expand production in Japan, targeting completion by 2032. The market's current pricing logic is: short-term price hike slowdown is a fact, but the long-term demand for storage in AI infrastructure is far from over. Capital is betting not on next quarter's prices, but on a structural shortage over the next three years. $ZEC $ETH $BTC #闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 A recent development in the Japanese market has cast a cautious shadow over the crypto world. According to reports, the two major trading platforms SBI and BITPOINT simultaneously delisted nine cryptocurrencies, including familiar names like $APT, $ETC, $BNB, and $PEPE, with the notable inclusion of $TRUMP.👀
This is not a simple project elimination. The uniqueness of $TRUMP lies in its close ties to the U.S. political landscape. After evaluation, Japanese exchanges clearly deemed the regulatory uncertainties behind it to be beyond an acceptable range. This decision reflects East Asian markets' cautious stance toward politically sensitive assets, contrasting sharply with the speculative enthusiasm seen in some Western markets.
This move may serve as a reference for platforms in other regions with strict regulations. When assets are deeply intertwined with political narratives, the boundaries of trading compliance become increasingly blurred, and liquidity may quickly come under pressure when policy directions shift. For holders, this is a reminder that the narrative hype of a token does not equate to a pass within the global regulatory framework.🌏
Risk warning: Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; delisting and regulatory developments may trigger liquidity risks. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance. $BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The moment the screen lit up, the entire market surged upward, and I slammed my phone on the table for thirty seconds to calm down. Last time you rushed in because you were afraid of missing out, did you end up in the most awkward spot? Honestly, in this kind of sudden rally, the easiest mistake isn't looking the wrong way, but being pushed by surrounding emotions, only thinking to get in when everyone else is excited. I personally prefer to narrow my focus to a few truly understandable stocks rather than filling my self-selected list. My observation framework is actually quite simple: - BTC and ETH are the bottom position logic, determining overall risk preference - SOL and XRP are elastic products used to gauge market temperature - High-volatility instruments like BEAT are only suitable for testing with small positions What I care about more are the signals sent by the derivatives market. Has the funding rate behind this rally shown extreme deviation? Is open interest steadily rising or suddenly surging? If the funding rate for perpetual contracts is already ridiculously high, it means the market is crowded with long-chasing investors. Entering now means you're not trading direction, but helping others carry their sedan chair. The repricing caused by events is often partially digested before the news even materializes. When everyone sees the price rise before acting, you're no longer buying expectations but others taking profits. I prefer to wait for prices to pull back and open interest to reshuffle before seeing for structural entry opportunities. On the bullish side, if macro data truly supports risk assets, BTC stands outIn recent days, the US storage sector has experienced volatility and accumulation, but last night it finally broke through with high volume and stabilized. If there is a short-term pullback, there's no need to panic excessively. The main logic right now is: AI giants are continuing to compete for storage resources. SK hynix's high-end HBM capacity has been locked in long-term orders, making it hard for small and medium-sized manufacturers to secure supply, and high-end products are even scarcer. Although the previous rally has ended, after deleveraging, the storage sector has stabilized from low levels, and I believe there is still a chance for a second rally going forward. After all, with sustained AI demand growing, if a memory leader with strong profitability remains undervalued, the market will find it hard to ignore this value in the long term. 🔍 QQQ's Key Moves: Why Still Pay Attention to the Market? Because the index environment directly affects individual stock performance, especially SK hynix, which has been included in QQQ, QQQ's performance is worth closely watching. My judgment is: before the end of October, the market may form a good medium- to long-term positioning opportunity. After recent QQQ sideways consolidation, I prefer a shakeout structure of "false breakout → pullback→ rebound → final false breakdown." Key focus: Around 748: Possible false breakout; Around 686: Key lower boundary of the range; Around 714: Middle band; 686–714: Subsequent oscillation range. If the false breakout is completed and quickly recovered, it could become a good medium- to long-term signal. If BTC continues to maintain its bullish structure, the US tech sector$BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #HammackBacksHike [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund (NBIM) has proposed reducing its holdings of about $80 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, lowering the government bond allocation from 70% to 50%. The world's largest sovereign fund with $2.3 trillion in assets has dealt a new heavy blow to U.S. debt.
It's not that they won't buy U.S. Treasuries anymore; they just find the yields insufficiently attractive and want to switch to "higher-yield bonds." NBIM plainly stated in their letter: a 50% allocation to government bonds is enough to cover liquidity needs, and the remainder should be allocated to assets that offer more risk premium. In other words, they think U.S. Treasury interest rates are too low!
The impact on Bitcoin is unavoidable.
The sovereign fund's reduction in U.S. debt means the world's most conservative capital is re-evaluating the creditworthiness of the dollar. If this trend continues, funds will flow into assets with fixed supply and out of government reach—gold and Bitcoin. In recent months, both gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs have simultaneously attracted capital, making this logic explicit. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has reached its highest level in six years, shifting from a "high-beta tech stock" to a "macro hedge asset."
But Pharaoh must remind you, NBIM's letter is only a "recommendation," and the final decision won't be submitted to parliament until spring 2027. The short-term impact is more emotional than an immediate $80 billion sell-off. The real determinants of Bitcoin's direction remain next week's CPI data and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 Hyperliquid is entering the US market and may be finding a more realistic path.
Currently, Hyperliquid Labs is negotiating with Payward, planning to leverage Bitnomial, which is regulated by the CFTC under Payward, to allow US users to trade certain perpetual contracts related to Hyperliquid.
Note, this does not mean opening the Hyperliquid App directly to US users.
Instead, the trading is placed within an already regulated derivatives framework. The related plan has been submitted to the CFTC, but final approval has not yet been granted.
This is actually quite interesting.
In the past, the biggest advantage of on-chain DEXs was freedom.
But the flip side of freedom is the difficulty of directly accessing heavily regulated markets like the US.
Now, the path Hyperliquid has chosen is precisely to separate "on-chain liquidity" from the "traditional regulatory gateway."
Bitnomial handles compliance.
Hyperliquid provides market and product capabilities.
If this path ultimately succeeds, the real impact might not just be on trading volume.
Currently, most of Hyperliquid's protocol revenue is recycled through mechanisms used to buy back HYPE.
So, with more US users, what’s truly worth watching is not just how many traders increase.
But how much of the new trading volume ultimately converts into value capture for HYPE.
The market can easily assign a valuation.
Whether revenue can grow accordingly is another matter.
$HYPE $BTC 🚨 ETH's drop last night was not just a simple technical correction; the real "killer" was the non-farm payrolls!
Many saw $ETH fall below 2500 and thought it was just bulls getting crushed.
But connecting last night's data with the market situation, the logic is actually very clear 👇
1. Non-farm data directly disrupted market expectations
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000.
The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% year-over-year, and July employment data was also revised upward.
In short: employment is much stronger than the market imagined.
The market was originally trading on "rate cuts + looser liquidity," but after the non-farm data came out, expectations were instantly shattered.
The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, so risk assets naturally took the first hit.
2. At the moment the data was released, the market collectively panicked
After the non-farm announcement, BTC fell below 80,000, and $ETH directly lost 2500.
High-level long positions stopped out, leveraged funds liquidated, combined with rapidly shifting sentiment to bearish, the first wave of selling was very fierce.
Even gold simultaneously dropped sharply.
So last night looked more like a typical:
"Expectation gap → liquidity shock → leveraged panic selling"
3. So what about ETH going forward?
I think the most important thing here is not to rush to guess whether it will rise or fall, but to see if subsequent macro data can continue to reinforce the expectation of "higher interest rates for longer."
After the first sharp drop, ETH did not continue to experience an uncontrolled one-sided sell-off but began to oscillate and recover.
#DailyOrbit After the non-farm payrolls landed, the market's game logic has been completely rewritten.
The bulls and bears are no longer one-sided; the most direct change in the contract market is that the wave of collective frantic long position additions has receded.
Currently, large players mainly trade back and forth within a range.
They place short orders to hedge during rallies and set long orders to catch rebounds during pullbacks, with heavy one-sided bets on sharp rises or falls significantly shrinking.
This position structure means the market has officially entered a wide-range oscillation mode.
In the short term, it is difficult to replicate the previous one-sided move of several hundred points in one go.
$ETH contract leverage volatility is significantly higher than $BTC.
Once a rapid spike occurs, the chain liquidation scale linked to ETH will be much larger than Bitcoin's, with stronger destructive power.
Coupled with the macro headwinds brought by the explosive non-farm data and ETH whales cashing out at high levels.
The market is still in a severe overbought digestion phase in the short term.
In a wide-range oscillation environment, the tolerance for chasing highs and cutting losses is extremely low.
Do not aggressively chase orders; hold cash patiently and wait for better odds.
The amplitude of the September oscillation and shakeout will most likely increase; quietly wait for the Q4 window.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% The big rebound from MU to SNDK has already been realized. Fortunately, the previous warnings still hold true—the memory bottleneck hasn't changed at all, and neither have CW lasers or substrates.
Short-term sentiment depends on price and macro conditions; it can change suddenly. But I believe many supply-demand imbalances will be more severe than people expect:
· Today, a Japanese distributor told Nikkei that the memory demand gap is 40–60% (demand exceeds supply by 67–150%), with overall prices expected to rise 50% by year-end
· SPCX was not included in that 1.3 trillion super-large scale capex (Wells Fargo estimates AI capex at about 263 billion), so total capex data might hold surprises
· SNDK says an 80% gross margin can be sustained until 2030... S&P 100 is beckoning
· Also, companies like Samsung now let you see clearly into 2031
Memory prices do indeed fluctuate wildly. Some of my positions have risen over 270%, with unrealized gains cushioning the volatility, making it easier to hold through the swings.
But ultimately—the fundamentals don’t always align with short-term prices.
This way of thinking applies equally to other industries.