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$SNDK $SKHY Many investors are asking if the storage sector is about to take off
SNDK was announced to be included in the S&P 100 index, which will bring in over 3 billion USD of passive funds. This is also why the price surged last night, breaking through the 1700 resistance level
But short-term holders who are stuck, don’t panic. This positive news has mostly been priced in by the market. With poor liquidity over the weekend, it is expected that after the Korean stock market opens next week, the price will very likely see a pullback
You can treat the weekly range of 1810‑1830 as a key resistance zone and set your defense stop-loss accordingly
MU in the same sector has already entered the S&P 100, and now only SK Hynix $SKHY lacks related news. The market will later speculate on its expected inclusion
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $MU The vast majority of people focus on K-line charts to find the logic of price rises and falls, but the direction is completely wrong.
The real engine driving this round of the market has never been in the crypto circle, but in the US macro monetary policy.
The strong rebound in August was due to liquidity easing brought by the expansion of US Treasury repurchase agreements.
The decline in US Treasury yields and the weakening of the dollar created an excellent recovery window for BTC.
BTC rose more than 25% that month, with ETF net inflows of 3.5 billion, marking the strongest capital trend of the year.
The early September surge to 81,000 was driven by dovish remarks continuing expectations of easing, resulting in a short squeeze and an overbought rally.
But tonight's explosive nonfarm payrolls completely overturned all market optimism.
New jobs added were 162,000, far exceeding expectations, with employment and wages warming across the board beyond forecasts.
The probability of a September rate hike soared, US Treasury yields returned to near two-year highs, and the macro headwinds fully formed.
ETH simultaneously saw a whale cash out 400 million USD at a high, and ETF net inflows ended after several days.
Currently, the market is volatile, entirely focused on pricing whether the September FOMC will restart rate hikes.
My position structure remains unchanged, not swayed by short-term sentiment.
$BTC and $ETH serve as core base holdings, while $SOL and $TRUMP are for capturing elasticity.
Small positions are used to speculate on high-risk targets, while maintaining ample liquidity throughout.
Historical patterns show September mainly digests risk through volatility.
The real strong market is concentrated in the seasonal main rise cycle of October to November.
Be patient to get through the September shakeout.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Last night, after the non-farm payrolls were released, the market experienced a classic rollercoaster: Bitcoin $BTC first surged to 82280, just shy of the weekly high at 82800, then quickly plunged, bottoming at 78660, with a daily swing of nearly 4000 points; Ethereum $ETH fell from a high of 2547 down to 2430; gold dropped from 4514 to 4370. A large amount of funds chasing longs between 80000 and 82000 were directly trapped at the ceiling. Today is the weekend, and the market has entered a correction phase following the big rally. The core judgment is clear: the major bullish trend is not completely over, but the short-term upward momentum has clearly weakened, making it unsuitable to chase longs at high levels. The strategy is mainly to short on rebounds and lightly buy on dips at key support levels. 1. Non-farm review: The data was just the trigger; the real sell-off was caused by concentrated profit-taking. On the eve of the non-farm data release, the market's first reaction was a surge—Bitcoin directly pulled up to 82280, Ethereum touched 2547. After the non-farm data was released last night, prices plummeted. The reason was not that the data itself was bad, but that the price was too high. The 82000 to 83000 range corresponds to the 500-day moving average, where about 1.05 million BTC are stuck waiting to be sold. Once the price hit this area, profit-taking from those who had followed the rise from 77000, short-term longs chasing above 80000, and positions breaking even all converged to exit, directly pushing the price down. The non-farm data was just the fuse; the real sell-off wasOn September 4th, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively weakened, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, the Nasdaq down 0.29%, but the memory chip sector clearly bucked the trend. $SNDK rose nearly 12%, $SKHY rose over 8%, $MU rose over 6%, Western Digital also rose over 5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.37% simultaneously. Even more striking, SanDisk's cumulative gain this year has exceeded 500%. The AI market is gradually spreading from GPUs to "storage" — GPUs handle computing, while NAND and SSDs bear AI data and inference demands. 🔥 Latest developments worth noting: SanDisk and Kioxia plan to invest over $31 billion more in Japan to expand NAND capacity, aiming for mass production in fiscal year 2029; Samsung and SK Hynix are also continuously expanding capacity. This indicates that the market is trading not just on current price increases but is pricing in the growth in storage demand driven by AI inference over the next few years. But there is a key risk here: sector rotation ≠ permanent value revaluation. SanDisk could still fall one day and then suddenly surge the next, without the company announcing any major news to justify a 12% rise. In the short term, it is more likely that funds are switching from AI software and GPUs to storage hardware. The crypto market has also seen a "storage narrative spillover," with tokens like $FIL, $AR, and $STORJ experiencing significantly increased volatility recently. However, it is important to note: memory chip companies and decentralized storage tokens are not the same asset logic. The long-term demand for AI storage is indeed worth attention, but $SNDK Federal Reserve officials loudly call for "rate hikes now"! Trump threatens to cut trade if rates aren't cut, market caught in a squeeze
Hello everyone, I'm Ergou, biting and killing giant whale institutions. Just now, Federal Reserve official Harnack released the strongest hawkish statement of the year: "Current monetary policy is not restrictive, inflation is still too high, now is the time to take action." She also revealed that manufacturers in Ohio bluntly said "rates should be raised" because input costs have risen double digits.
CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 58.6%. Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceeded the expected 56,000, which is the main driver. The stronger the employment, the more confidence the Federal Reserve has to raise rates.
On the other side, Trump directly threatened on social media: if rates are not cut, trade with deficit countries will be cut off. The White House wants rate cuts, the Fed wants rate hikes — the two sides are fighting.
My judgment: Harnack has FOMC voting rights this year, her hawkish stance is not casual talk. The real decision on whether to raise rates in September depends on the CPI data on September 11 — the market expects overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4%. If CPI exceeds expectations, a rate hike is certain; if CPI is below expectations, rate hike expectations may quickly fall.
Before the CPI is released, don't heavily bet on direction. When the data comes out, follow whoever wins.
Brothers, do you think there will be a rate hike in September?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#日银加息预期升温，日元空头平仓风险上升 Bitcoin over the weekend is catching its breath
$79,600, down 1.4% in 24h. This week it just surged to 82,000, hitting a three-month high, then was punched back below 79,000 by the non-farm payrolls — August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 56,000, and the rate hike probability returned to 58%.
But don’t panic. ETF single-day net inflow is 731 million, the largest since January; SOPR remains above 1, no one is selling at a loss.
This is not a collapse, but a pullback confirmation after a breakout.$SNDK 1550 short position trapped? Don't worry,
SanDisk rose yesterday mainly due to three combined reasons
1. The AI boom hasn't faded, storage chips are still in tight supply, Dell even said AI servers are bottlenecked by storage, which boosts market confidence in SanDisk. Plus, Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face drives storage demand expectations, benefiting SanDisk.
2. The macro environment has also eased, the Fed dispelled rate hike worries, and funds flowed back into semiconductors.
3. SanDisk itself has a strong foundation, with revenue in the financial report nearly quadrupling, and signing nearly $100 billion in long-term supply agreements. Solid fundamentals combined with positive news naturally pushed the stock price up.
Trapped? What to do? Three options:
1. Set a hard stop
Current price 1770, unrealized loss 220 points. First accept the loss, set 1800 as a hard stop loss, don't hold if it breaks.
2. Wait for a rebound to reduce
If it drops sharply to around 1730-1740, cut half to reduce risk.
3. Find opportunities to clear the rest
Hold the other half waiting to return near cost or sell at a lower level.
The initiative is not in your hands, wait for the market to give opportunities. Losing less is winning, if it really doesn't cooperate, accept the loss and save money for next time.
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC has been consolidating sideways for a long time; it seems unable to fall, but risks are actually accumulating continuously.
US nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, significantly raising the market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Once the policy meeting releases a hawkish signal, US Treasury yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, will come under direct pressure. Currently, a large amount of old coins are stacked in the 83000‑86000 range, which is a heavy resistance level. Multiple attempts to break through have failed, and whales have already shown signs of gradually transferring their coins out, with the risk of concentrated sell-offs at any time.
ETF funds do not flow in forever; once institutions start large-scale redemptions, it will create selling pressure. The crypto benefits from the US election are just speculative hype; historically, the market buys the expectation and sells the reality. When the legislation news is finalized, it is easy to see a significant pullback after the benefits are realized.
The futures market has accumulated a large number of long positions; as soon as the market turns, cascading liquidations will accelerate the decline. The crypto market has no price limits, so the drop can have no support. The continuous iteration of future quantum computing technology has already exposed addresses with public keys, posing a risk that private keys could be cracked and coins stolen in the future.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% There are many QDII funds in the market that are deceptive in name.
Many QDII funds have names including "Global," "Technology," or "Internet," but their holdings don't match up.
Here are a few examples based on disclosed reports; numbers may be outdated, refer to the latest quarterly reports:
China Asset Management Global Technology Pioneer
The name sounds like global technology. Q2 report: about 36.6% A-shares, about 23.2% Hong Kong stocks, about 16.7% US stocks.
E Fund Global Growth Select
The name is global growth. The contract states it can allocate both domestically and internationally, with minimums for both.
When US stocks surge but it doesn't follow, first check the A-share weighting before blaming the market.
E Fund Global Quality Enterprises
The name sounds like global quality companies. Q2 2026 report: about 42.9% A-shares, about 21.1% US stocks, with small portions in Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong stocks.
The largest portion is in mainland China. For "global quality," first ask which exchange the quality is on.
E Fund Global Allocation
The name sounds like global allocation. Q2 report: about 40.1% US stocks, about 23.9% A-shares, about 15.4% Hong Kong stocks.
Check three things: actual US stock exposure, what the top ten holdings are betting on, and whether scale and premium are crowded.
The name is responsible for subscriptions; holdings are responsible for gains and losses.
Observation notes, not investment advice. $UNI — Slight Weakness
UNI is trading around $6.27, down 0.68%. The decline is modest, suggesting limited short-term selling pressure compared with sharper market moves.
Bias: Slightly bearish.
Risk Management: Watch nearby support and wait for clearer direction before taking a position.
Disclaimer: This update is for market awareness only. Crypto assets involve substantial risk and this is not investment advice. Manage exposure carefully.
#BTCGoldRatioHigh
#HammackBacksHike Non-farm payrolls crash the market, but memory chips collectively surge! SanDisk joins the S&P 100, AI memory goes completely crazy
SanDisk surged 11.9% in a single day to $1740, Micron rose over 6% breaking the $1000 mark, SK Hynix rose over 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%.
Why?
AI's strong demand is supporting the market. Goldman Sachs expects DRAM and NAND supply-demand tightness to continue until 2027, with AI server DRAM usage 8 to 10 times that of traditional servers. Samsung's high-end AI memory capacity is sold out through the end of 2026.
SanDisk: Data center revenue surged 1298% year-over-year and doubled quarter-over-quarter. Even more impressive, it was officially included in the S&P 100 on September 21 — passive funds are immediately coming to lift the stock.
Micron: Plans to increase HBM monthly capacity to 100,000 wafers by year-end; the most advanced HBM is sold out for all of 2026. However, 80% of the Taiwan union supports a strike, so supply could be cut again at any time.
My judgment: The storage AI logic is not finished yet; short-term chasing of highs requires caution. SanDisk has passive funds to catch the stock, Micron has long-term benefits but union risks. The real direction depends on the CPI on September 11; if SanDisk's September 30 earnings report and guidance exceed expectations, it could rise another wave.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX WAY Review｜Nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, BTC broke below 80K, is the bearish news over?
I am bearish in the short term. If this nonfarm wave holds the support, it should rise again.
Last night, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market originally expected about 53,000; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Employment was stronger than expected, meaning the Fed has more room to maintain high interest rates. The market immediately treated this "good news" as bad news for risk assets.
BTC quickly fell from above 81,000 to below 80,000, hitting a low of 78,610, currently around 79,500.
But I will not yet directly conclude that a bearish trend is established.
Because after the nonfarm announcement, BTC dropped about 2%, open interest also decreased about 1.5%, which looks more like long position reductions and leverage clearing, not a large influx of new short positions.
Next, I am watching two levels:
🔴 Break below 78,600: the decline may continue to expand
🟢 Reclaim 80,000: indicates the market is starting to digest the bearish news
Additionally, ZEC has remained relatively strong during the market pullback and is currently a capital flow direction worth continuing to track.
The real next key to determining the Fed's stance is the CPI on September 11. Do you think BTC will first recover 80K or test 78,600 again?
The above is a market review and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #Nonfarm #ZEC$CL Trump has only threatened Iran since July without actually attacking: empty threats can't support oil prices, shorts please continue holding
Since July, Trump's rhetoric towards Iran has escalated from "devastating strikes" to "unprecedented sanctions," from "the Strait of Hormuz does not belong to Iran" to the absurd "renaming" farce a few days ago. He has made a barrage of threats, and there have been reports of aircraft carrier movements several times, but no shots have been fired. The global oil market has shifted from initial geopolitical panic to market fatigue, revealing an increasingly clear fact: Trump will not easily take military action against Iran, and the "war premium" on oil prices is being gradually stripped away. For shorts, this is the best macro backdrop—empty threats can't support oil prices, and every rebound caused by a threat is a gift of chips.
1. Why does Trump only threaten but not actually attack?
Let's start with the most direct political logic. Trump's core interest is not the Middle East but his domestic base. He repeatedly promised during his campaign to "end unnecessary wars" and that "America will no longer be the world's policeman." If he rashly went to war with Iran, soaring oil prices would directly push up domestic inflation in the U.S., and inflation is one of the economic indicators Trump least wants to see. High oil prices would erode his voter base—truck drivers, farmers, and ordinary wage earners who are extremely sensitive to fuel prices.
More realistically, military action against Iran is full of uncontrollable risks. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, comprehensive retaliation by Iranian proxy militias, and reactions from China and Russia could quickly escalate a localized strike into a regional war. Trump wants "the art of the deal," bargaining chips, and negotiation leverage, not a war without end. So his strategy is clear: use the loudest threats to create negotiation pressure and use escalating rhetoric to mask his real reluctance to act. Every market panic is a political performance he orchestrates, and the performer himself never intends to step off the stage to pull the trigger.
2. Oil market's "war fatigue": diminishing marginal effect
Since July, Iran-related geopolitical news has triggered at least four or five short-term oil price spikes. But if you observe the magnitude of each rebound, a clear pattern emerges: each one is weaker and shorter than the last. When Trump first threatened to "strike Iran's nuclear facilities," Brent crude surged over $2 in a single day. By the recent "renaming of the Strait of Hormuz" incident, oil prices spiked but gave back almost all gains the same day.
This is classic "war fatigue." The market begins to rationally assess that when a leader repeatedly issues threats but never follows through, the informational content of those threats approaches zero. Speculative funds no longer treat "Trump's tweets" as real signals of supply disruption but as opportunities to short on rallies. Once geopolitical "credit discounting" forms, it is hard to reverse.
3. Supply side: Iran not fighting, OPEC+ continues to increase production
The biggest logic for shorts comes from supply. Trump's threats against Iran have not changed OPEC+'s plan to gradually restore output. Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others are strongly motivated to increase production under fiscal pressure. U.S. shale oil remains high, and Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to ramp up output. The global supply "tap" is fully open.
Meanwhile, Iran itself is circumventing sanctions to export crude. U.S. verbal threats have not stopped Iranian oil from flowing to China and Asian markets. Supply is not decreasing but increasing. After the war premium is disproven, oil prices return to supply-demand fundamentals, and the fundamental direction is only one: downward.
4. Technical analysis confirms: spike and fall, clear distribution pattern
From the price trend, every time Trump threatens Iran, WTI crude spikes to around $70, then quickly falls and hits new lows. The highs are progressively lower: 72.5, 71.8, 70.9, 70.1—each lower than the last. The 20-day moving average is downward, and the monthly spread has turned into a futures premium. This "empty threat spike—shorts suppress—gradual decline to new lows" cycle is a textbook distribution pattern.
Shorts have a simple job: when Trump threatens Iran next time, don't panic, wait for the spike, then short. The stop-loss point doesn't even need to be far because the spike high is the best stop-loss reference.
5. The real risk: black swans, not Trump
The risk of shorting crude oil has never been Trump's empty threats but real black swans: an unexpected military clash, Iran suddenly blocking the Strait of Hormuz, or an actual pipeline disruption. But these events are low probability, and if they occur, the market will give very clear signals. Until then, shorts have no reason to exit because of a threat that has cried wolf more than a dozen times.
Let the mouth fight the war, let the price fall
Trump's strategy toward Iran is clear: create the greatest fear with the loudest rhetoric, then maintain negotiation space with minimal actual action. The market is seeing through this, and every "threat-induced rebound" in oil prices endorses this judgment.
For shorts, the best strategy is to remain patient, even optimistic. Because every time Trump threatens but does not act, the market's trust erodes further, and the war premium on oil prices is peeled away layer by layer. When a president turns war into a talk show, the market's only response can be: keep shorting until he shuts up. On September 3, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $730.8 million, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for 62%. Net inflows exceeded $3 billion over the past 30 days. On September 4, Bitcoin hit $82,164 intraday, the highest since May. Everything seemed like a story of "institutions increasing their holdings." But on the afternoon of September 5, another data quietly updated: BTC reserves on exchanges rose to the highest level of the year, rebounding from the May low of 2.67 million to about 2.73 million. The whale inflow ratio surged to around 0.60. To put it plainly: While ETFs are buying frantically, large holders are moving coins onto exchanges. On one side, BlackRock clients are rushing in; on the other, whales are moving out. This should have been a "long-bear divergence" news, but it was written as a one-sided narrative of an "ETF-driven rebound." Because ETF inflows are public, real-time, and named. Whereas whale shipments are hidden, delayed, and nameless. The market only sees the hand illuminated by the light, not the hand counting money in the darkness. Replace the subject with "those 2.73 million BTC lying on the exchange." If the subject is "ETF," the story is "institutions entering." If the subject is "Bitcoin," the story is "pullback after approaching 82,000." But if the subject is changed to those 2.73 million BTC quietly piling up in exchange wallets, the whole narrative is reversed. What does 2.73 million mean? At $80,000, that's about $218 billion. This is BTC on major global exchangesWhile mining giants like MARA are turning to “Full HODL” (full coin accumulation) or even issuing bonds to buy coins, Bitdeer has steadfastly maintained a 0 BTC position since clearing its reserves in February 2026. This "mine as much as you sell" approach is not simply a bearish market stance but an extremely rational business choice: Unlike mining companies that merely purchase ready-made computing power, Bitdeer has heavily invested in self-developed Sealminer chips and ASIC miners. Chip fabrication, packaging, and testing are capital-intensive investments requiring real cash outlays. Power and AI data center infrastructure: With pure mining profit margins squeezed after the halving, Bitdeer is accelerating the conversion of some power infrastructure into AI/HPC cloud services that demand higher computing power and greater capital expenditure. Directly liquidating BTC spot holdings is the safest way to ensure cash flow does not break the red line. 2. The fatal divergence in mining company development paths: The coin accumulation faction (e.g., MARA/Riot): Essentially anchors the company as a “leveraged BTC spot ETF,” buying/accumulating coins by diluting equity or issuing bonds, betting on unlimited cryptocurrency price surges. The infrastructure faction (Bitdeer): Strips away the risk of token price volatility, positioning itself as a “hardcore power and computing infrastructure operator.” It avoids the risk of holding cryptocurrency on the balance sheet, allowing traditional US stock institutional investors to treat it like a conventional data center/Robinhood Chain 现在越来越有意思了，我觉得已经开始出现三条非常清晰的主线：Pons 代表的是强收费、强回购的发射平台；AI 代表的是Meme + AI + 美股代币化的新叙事，它甚至直接和代币化的 NVIDIA 股票组成交易对；再往后，就是 CashCat 这种纯 Meme。三条路线，其实对应的是三种完全不同的玩法。 Pons 市值来到 7 亿，我觉得意义不只是 Pons 涨到了 7 亿，而是他把罗宾汉链上市值天花板打开了。这有点像 2024 年的 GOAT 时刻。 但如果按照这个逻辑继续往下推，Pons 和 AI 都更像是这一阶段的先行者，而不是最终龙头。Pons 更证明了“赌场逻辑能成立”，AI 则是在尝试用 Meme 的传播能力去撬动美股流动性，让两个原本割裂的市场产生连接。 真正下一阶段的龙头，应该是那个不再简单复制 Pump或者逼空美股叙事，而是重新定义资产怎么发行、怎么交易、怎么产生价值的项目。 所以最近我开始重点关注 HOOKR。它做的事情其实很有意思：不是简单发一个 Meme，而是把 Uniswap V4 Hooks 引入到代币发行里，让发行者可以定义The net assets of the US spot $BTC ETF have exceeded $103 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for more than half. The day before yesterday, there was an inflow of about $730.9 million, setting a new high for the month. Interestingly, this inflow occurred before the employment data was released, after which macro expectations hardened and BTC dropped accordingly.
This indicates that ETFs are no longer just a short-term buying tool; they are becoming the main vehicle for traditional funds to hold BTC. This will change trading times, liquidity, and participant structure, but it will not eliminate macro shocks like the one yesterday. It can only be considered one side of supply and demand, not a substitute for price direction.
Another more subtle issue is that the high proportion of IBIT brings concentration risk, because concentrated entry does not mean holders have completely aligned views. The same ETF can simultaneously include long-term allocation, arbitrage, and short-term trading.Bitcoin crashed sharply from 80,000, while $SNDK surged against the trend, making the market split hard to understand.
First is the FOMC interest rate meeting. The September FOMC meeting is scheduled for the 15th-16th, with results announced early on September 17th. After Waller's "cautiously hawkish" stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, market expectations for a September rate hike once approached 70%. September 14th happens to be the 1409th day from the last market cycle low—this resonance between cycle and technicals has labeled this day as a "turning point." Whether it's a rate hike or a pause, the market will inevitably experience intense volatility around the boot drop.
More importantly, Waller scrapped the "forward guidance." This means every macro data release will directly drive expectation adjustments. Important economic data is due on September 11th, and various expectations will ferment ahead over the weekend of September 14th—the market will trade through all scenarios before the meeting.
Don't forget Trump. There's a market saying: Trump handles war and oil prices, Bassett manages U.S. debt and liquidity, and Waller controls rate expectations. On nonfarm payroll night, Trump openly called for a rate cut, adding fuel to this "three-person act." Any statements around September 14th could become a trigger.
For me, the week of September 14th is the macro "final battle"—FOMC tone setting, political games, and technical cycle triple resonance. Before then, I won't heavily bet on any direction, only lightly wait for the true direction after the storm passes. $BTC $SNDK The strong non-farm payrolls pushed the index down, but AI storage still managed to surge against the trend. This market is already starting to reward "real demand"!
$BTC, although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier, but after the strong non-farm payrolls raised interest rate expectations again, ETH will rely more on liquidity. What really matters going forward is whether ETFs, staking, and corporate holdings can continue to absorb ETH from the market.
$BICO is currently around $0.021, down about 14% in the past 7 days. The sentiment from the exchange expansion wave has mostly been digested. To revalue now, it depends on account abstraction and on-chain infrastructure to create users again, rather than continuing to rely on listings.
$OKB is still watching whether X Layer's 19 RWA perpetual markets can generate real trading volume; $QQQ almost closed flat after the strong non-farm payrolls, but funds are clearly clustered in chips; $SNDK is even more dramatic, surging nearly 12% against the trend, as AI is turning NAND and enterprise SSDs back into scarce assets; $SKHYNIX is also benefiting from the AI memory cycle, but will have to compete with Samsung for HBM market share later.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ The golden era of Bitcoin has arrived, with three key milestones determining whether its strength can continue 🚀
✅️ Global M2 and interest rate cut pace (tailwind): Bitcoin's sensitivity to the global liquidity cycle is about 3–4 times that of gold. If major central banks ease more than expected and the credit cycle expands, BTC's premium against gold still has room to rise toward the historical cycle midpoint (25–30 ounces range).
✅️ Technical resistance level of the ratio (resistance): The 18–20 ounces range has historically been an important psychological and technical resistance zone for the BTC/Gold ratio. Breaking through this range requires sustained and large-scale new fiat liquidity injections, rather than merely sector rotation supported by existing funds.
✅️ Vulnerability to risk-off and deleveraging (reversal risk): Once macro conditions show stagflation beyond expectations or severe liquidity withdrawal shocks, the market usually undergoes a rapid deleveraging phase where "cash is king." Because BTC's volatility and derivatives liquidation risk are much higher than gold's, the ratio often experiences sharp mean reversion drawdowns during liquidity stress periods.
In the short term, as long as the macro liquidity expansion logic is not falsified, BTC's relative premium to gold remains in a pro-cyclical channel; however, at the critical resistance level of 18–20 ounces, the ratio's volatility will significantly increase. Whether a one-sided decoupling can form in the future depends on whether incremental spot funds can effectively absorb at the resistance zone.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ I increasingly feel that the market is shifting from "how to survive the bear market" to "how to seize opportunities in the bull market." My judgment remains the same: the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull. So what we really need to be cautious about next is not the pullback, but that you keep waiting for a pullback only to find the train has already left. Those already on the train should hold tight; for those not on board, the pullback is actually an opportunity to buy back in. For core positions at the start of the bull market, I will still focus on BTC + ETH, especially ETH. Many people are now watching Robinhood Chain to snatch Ethereum's on-chain revenue, but I think this might be a misunderstanding: Robinhood Chain itself is an L2 based on the Ethereum ecosystem, and it is moving traditional financial capital like stock tokenization and 24/7 trading onto the chain. The real big show may not be about who takes ETH's transaction fees, but who brings more capital into Ethereum's world. Where there are opportunities for sudden wealth, there will be people; where there are people, there will be capital; where there is capital, infrastructure is needed. In the end, ETH is more like collecting "toll fees" from the entire on-chain financial world. As for Robinhood Chain, my thinking has also changed: where there is money, where there are fish, go there to fish. The biggest taboo in a bull market is to still trade with bear market PVP thinking, always fearing pullbacks, getting stuck, or missing out on sales. The real bull market is not about snatching the last bite of meat from others' mouths, but about the whole cake growing bigger together. Altcoins doubling first recoup the principal, and the remaining profits let it run; the windThe interesting part isn't that altcoins are green. It’s where the money is actually going. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $731M on Sept. 3, while Ethereum ETFs added roughly $141M. That tells me institutional demand is expanding beyond BTC — but not yet broadly across the altcoin market. That’s why I’m watching $ETH , $SOL , $XRP , $HYPE and $OKB differently. I don't need one big green candle. I want relative strength + sustained flows + failed dips being bought. BIAS: WAIT → ROTATION $ZEC breaks through $1000, reaching a new ten-year high — this surge happened just ten days after Grayscale launched the first US spot Zcash ETF on the NYSE Arca on August 25, providing institutional capital an entry point. According to Grayscale: the crypto industry is realizing the importance of privacy; first, the asset class is maturing and integrating with mainstream finance, and anyone coming from traditional finance can see the need for a privacy layer on a public ledger; second, AI. But I have remained neutral on Zcash for two reasons: first, it is PoW, and miners always gravitate toward the most profitable coins. Historically, many PoW coins have seen miners leave after a boom, with all hash power flowing back to Bitcoin; second, I am extremely optimistic about the privacy narrative, but I believe privacy will ultimately become a "feature" on other mainstream chains — a button, not a standalone chain.
What are your thoughts on Zcash? 🚨 STOP BLAMING THE CHARTS — WASHINGTON IS DRIVING CRYPTO.
Most traders are staring at K-lines, trying to explain every Bitcoin move from the crypto side.
But the bigger story is happening in Washington.
August’s rally wasn’t just a crypto comeback. It was fueled by easier financial conditions: Treasury buybacks increased, long-term yields pulled back, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin became more attractive to capital.
#DailyOrbit ETF fund data for September 4 released: After the non-farm payroll data surged and triggered a price correction in cryptocurrencies, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw capital inflows. Leading institutions became the main buyers. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $174.6 million on the day, with funds highly concentrated. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for a net inflow of $117.38 million, Fidelity's FBTC saw an inflow of $57.22 million, while other ETF products remained stable with no significant inflows or outflows, indicating that this round of buying mainly came from these two leading institutions. Ethereum ETFs also showed impressive capital attraction, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow at $57.4479 million and Fidelity's FETH at $57.79 million, totaling over $115 million. However, internal divergence appeared as Bitwise's $ETHW recorded a net outflow of $48.3 million, while most other products remained flat. Morgan Stanley had a slight inflow of $53,000. A clear phenomenon can be observed: after the market plunge, institutions did not collectively panic and flee; instead, leading large institutions started accumulating at low levels, with funds concentrating into the largest ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity. On the other hand, some products experienced capital outflows, and most others remained inactive, representing that small and medium institutions and ordinary participants are still cautious and observing. Overall, funds have not formed a comprehensive rush into the market. The interest rate hike concerns brought by the non-farm payroll data still hang over the market. This ETF data is a short-term positive but insufficient to directly reverse macro pressure. Institutions' willingness to buy at the correction level indicates medium- to long-term allocation intentions ⭕️⭕️The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in September, and the market has basically locked this in
⭕️⭕️The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the island nation's meeting on September 18 has surged to 97%
⭕️⭕️The USD/JPY pair sharply dropped from above 160 to the 155 range this week, approaching the 155.2 level after the joint Japan-US intervention at the end of July
⚠️⚠️It is important to note the risk of a stampede; currently, there are still about 16 to 17 trillion yen (approximately 102.6 billion USD) of short yen positions open
This has a huge impact on crypto‼️ Yen carry trade liquidation is the biggest risk. After the Bank of Japan's rate hike in July 2024, rapid yen short covering triggered a chain reaction, causing $BTC to plummet from $65,000 to $50,000 within a week
With a 97% probability of a rate hike and hundreds of billions of dollars in shorts hanging at the 155 level, $BTC has historically been very sensitive to such scenarios. Around the September 18 Bank of Japan meeting could be the biggest external variable for the crypto market recently
#日银加息预期升温，日元空头平仓风险上升 Opponents say Robinhood hasn't given back ETH, but Ryan Berckmans literally flipped the table.
They pay on-chain users, market to new holders, attract new enterprise clients who envy Robinhood, and put healthy competitive pressure on Base. Isn't that alignment?
So-called "Ethereum alignment" doesn't mean loyalty only if you hand over all the fees.
Helping the ecosystem grow is alignment.
Lido was a threat when dominant; Robinhood is an ally as it expands its reach.
We don't need Robinhood to buy ETH to win. The next wave of buyers like Tom Lee are still on the way.
On ETH's path to a multi-trillion market cap, L1 application capital and the number of successful L2s are two hard metrics. Robinhood is helping the latter grow.
This is good as it is now. $BTC $ETH $SOL Nonfarm payrolls announced at 162,000, employment data significantly exceeded expectations, which originally was a bearish signal for crypto: strong employment means the Federal Reserve has reason to maintain high interest rates or even resume rate hikes.
But a new variable emerged: senior officials publicly claimed credit and openly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates, threatening to use trade and tariff powers if rates are not lowered.
The market directly bypassed the nonfarm data itself, not worrying about whether the economy is good or not, instead betting on a major issue: whether the Federal Reserve will compromise and cut rates under external pressure, which directly pulled BTC from 77,000 to above 81,000, ETH rose above 2,500, and SOL followed with a general rally.
This rise is not a bull market brought by economic improvement, but a sentiment-driven market reversal based on the game of whether the Federal Reserve will be politically interfered with. This expectation-driven market reversal happens very quickly.
The market is now highly heated; whether going long or short, high volatility easily triggers stop losses.
Next, all bets are on how the Federal Reserve will decide at the FOMC meeting.
If they soften, the market will continue to surge;
If they stand firm, this rally will most likely be given back;
If neutral, it will be a back-and-forth shakeout.
SOL has the greatest elasticity, gaining sharply but also getting hit hard; BTC is relatively steadier; ETH is in between the two.
Everyone come discuss in my comments, #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Brothers, September starts with hellish difficulty.
① The monthly chart finally turned red, but don’t celebrate too early
BTC closed March up 1.8%, ending a five-month losing streak since September 2025. This is indeed a rare breather, but April opened with a drop back to $67,630. Some say the current macro environment strongly resembles the structure before the big rallies in 2016 and 2020, but the market has continuously deviated from seasonal patterns, so historical experience may not be that reliable.
② The Middle East situation is the biggest X factor right now
The most intense news these days is the resumption of direct clashes between the US and Iran. After the US military expanded strikes on Iran, BTC dropped directly from above $79,000 to around $77,200, with an intraday decline exceeding 2%. Oil prices broke through $90, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.8%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen above 66%. Oil price rise → inflation expectations increase → higher rate hike probability → pressure on risk assets, this transmission chain is very unfriendly to BTC.
Currently, BTC has support near $76,600, but the strong resistance zone is between $80,000 and $82,500. A daily close above $82,500 would be a true signal of supply clearing. In the short term, all eyes are on Friday’s nonfarm payroll data; if the data is hot, the $76,600 support may be tested again.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $ZEC holds firm above 1000 against the trend, but this buying pressure is forced by a short squeeze. The long-term logic holds, but don't catch the falling knife in the short term:
1. Short whales are being slaughtered (the most explosive): The essence of this surge is a short squeeze, with a long-short ratio of 0.42, and open interest contracts surged 50.4% in two days, reaching 2.42 billion.
Yesterday, the largest single short liquidation was 11.7 million, wiping out a bunch of short whales.
2. Shorts are being squeezed because institutions are continuously accumulating (spot side): Grayscale ZCSH has been listed for 11 days, with a net inflow of 34.4 million, ranking 12th in the entire market, leaving many old public chains behind.
3. But all overheating signals are lit: RSI surged to 87.8, price is 64% above the 50-day moving average, and 30-day volatility is 116%. The short-term gains are seriously overextended.
My judgment: 1000 has turned from resistance to support, and a pullback to confirm this is highly probable. In the medium term, as long as ETF net inflows continue, a correction is a buying opportunity. The baseline target of 1142 by year-end is not aggressive.
But entering now due to FOMO bets on capital flow not slowing down, which is very difficult. The risk-reward ratio at this level is already very low. Wow, $ZEC keeps hitting new all-time highs!
$ZEC has reached another new high.
The most frustrating people might not be those who missed the entire run, but those who hesitated at $900, finally mustered the courage to jump in at $1000, only to see it pull back 5% right after buying, panic-sell, and then watch it surge back up to $1050.
It's like a "reverse indicator" tailor-made for this rally.
Doubling in a month, rising over 2300% in a year — this isn't just crypto trading, it's like boarding a jet. But reaching this point, the story has changed several times: from the initial "privacy sector value rebound," to Grayscale ETF bringing compliant capital, to miners continuously adding hash power, each phase has a new narrative.
The most interesting part is still the on-chain data.
After ZEC broke $1000, a large address transferred over 120,000 tokens to exchanges within an hour, likely indicating long-term holders starting to cash out in batches. Meanwhile, retail traders' long-short ratio soared above 1.8 — more are chasing longs, while whales quietly shift positions.
This isn't FOMO; it's chip rotation.
Clearly, now is not the time for despair.
As for where the top is, no one can predict. But one thing is certain — when those who once dared not chase start thinking "it can still go up" and actually take action, the real test is just beginning. The second half of $ZEC is not about who predicts best, but who moves fastest.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Anonymous privacy coin $ZEC, after its rally, the funds will most likely rotate to $ZEN. Historically, ZEC peaks first, then $DASH and ZEN follow, with the one having the lower valuation ultimately benefiting from the main rise.
ZEN is not a post-attached mixing plugin. It inherits zk-SNARKs from the same source as Zcash, later proactively shutting down the main chain shield pool and migrating to Base to become L3, turning privacy into an application-layer capability: private swaps, cross-chain Woke up Saturday morning, and wow, the whole screen is full of the drama caused by last night's nonfarm payrolls.
August added 162,000 jobs, while the market expected only 56,000, nearly triple that—this data is insanely strong. The wind direction immediately reversed—previously everyone was betting on a rate cut, now they're betting on a September rate hike, with the probability shooting up to nearly 60%. Even Trump's urgent calls for a rate cut can't stop it; the US economy is really tough.
The three major US stock indexes all closed in the red, Tesla was the worst, down nearly 6%, breaking below $360, and those who chased the highs probably got buried again.
But the storage sector is a completely different world. SanDisk surged 11.9%, Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital all rose, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was pulled up more than 3%. Adding fuel to the fire, Micron directly announced that HBM monthly production capacity will double by the end of the year. Once this news came out, funds rushed in like crazy.
On one hand, rate hike expectations are pushing the market down; on the other, money for AI hardware is squeezing in fiercely. This divergence makes my hands itch but also makes me nervous. At this point, shouting about rate hikes while chasing storage stocks—I really can't pull the trigger. For small retail investors like me who can't hold stocks, it's better to watch the show from the sidelines. If I rush in, a single pullback by the big players could wash me out, and then I'll be kicking myself.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Looking at the market again at noon today, I feel the market has entered a stage that's easy to overlook: the first batch of rising coins is starting to need a break; The second batch of catalyst coins is preparing to take over. Currently, $BTC is about $79,500, $ETH about $2,450. The market hasn't continued to surge, but this actually leaves an opportunity for altcoins. Because as long as $BTC doesn't experience a sharp drop, there's no need for all funds to return to $BTC. They'll start looking for the next stop. Right now, I'm most focused on several very clear directions. $SOL is one of them. $SOL is now around $102, and around $100 has become a very clear boundary between bulls and bears. More importantly, on September 9, Solana will launch a new trading format, and by the end of the month, there's an Alpenglow upgrade. So $SOL isn't without stories—it's already entering the stage of 'price advance trading expectations.' If $100 can hold and break through $105–$108 again, I will continue to watch around $120. The second is still $LINK. But this time, I don't want to repeat its oracle story. What $LINK is truly worth watching now is whether CCIP can become a "highway" between blockchains. Recently, CCIP has continued to expand to Avalanche and Polygon, with traditional financial institutions joining in. If $LINK can climb back above $12 and trading volume follows, then the next round is likely not just following the fake marketLast night's nonfarm payroll really stunned me
Expected 56,000
Announced 162,000
My first reaction was
Is this data fake?😭
Checked the original BLS table
The numbers are real
But it's just a preliminary sample
It will continue to be revised later
Plus, 59,000 new jobs in food services
42,000 new jobs in local education
These two alone account for more than 60%
Unemployment rate still 4.1%
Wages up 3.1% year-over-year
Employment is indeed strong
But not strong enough to require a rate hike
Now the probability of a rate hike in September is about 60%
The real decisive factor is the next CPI
—
$ETH at 2448
Down about 2% in 24 hours
Range 2428—2548
Such a big negative but no crash
ETH ETF even had a net inflow of $25.9 million last night
As long as 2430 holds, it's still a consolidation
If it breaks down, watch 2400 and 2350
If it climbs back above 2500
Beware of a short squeeze between 2548—2600
I closed my short at 2616
Less than 7% from current price
At 100x leverage, I really can't short based on feeling anymore😭
—
$OKB near 109
Up about 0.9% in 24 hours
Still up 22.6% in 30 days
105 and 100 are support levels
112 to 118 are resistance levels
Price action is stronger than the market
But I won't chase to buy
—
$SNDK closed at 1740
Surged 11.9% in one day
It's SanDisk on US stock market
Not an ordinary altcoin
Only above 1740 do I look at 1800
If it can't hold, first watch 1600—1555
US stock market closed on weekend
Perpetual contracts still trading as usual
Need to be more cautious of price spikes and dips
My view
This nonfarm is somewhat bearish
But not a guaranteed sell signal
As long as ETH doesn't break 2430
The market is likely still waiting for CPI to choose direction
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ After the US non-farm payrolls data came out last night, the US stock market showed a very divided performance.
In August, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market had originally only expected 56,000, nearly three times the forecast. After the data was released, US Treasury bonds immediately reacted, with the 10-year yield surging back to 4.8%, and the market's expectations for a September rate hike also rose.
Normally, this kind of environment is definitely unfriendly to tech stocks, so last night the S&P 500 fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.29%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.51%. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3% last night, with the entire storage, semiconductor equipment, and AI hardware chains strengthening against the trend. What has really been weighing on tech stocks these days are oil prices and US Treasury yields. Oil prices remain above $90, the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to 4.8%, and with such strong non-farm payrolls, the market naturally worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates.
Additionally, the US stock market was closed on Monday for Labor Day, so the next opening will be Tuesday. Next week, the real focus will no longer be on non-farm payrolls, but on CPI and PPI. Going forward, it will depend on whether inflation provides the Federal Reserve with a reason to continue raising rates. After reading the STH-MVRV deviation framework by Panda Bro (@0xCryptoChan) and Begga (@market_begga), I recalculated it myself using on-chain data from September 4. Currently, BTC is about $80,600, and the short-term holder MVRV has returned between the mean and +1σ. Rough estimates for several scenarios:
(1) If it repeats a small bull run like in 2019, reaching +2σ again, based on the current STH-RP reverse calculation, BTC would be around $92,000.
(2) If it resembles the 2023 oscillating recovery, reaching +1.5σ, that corresponds to about $87,000.
(3) Conversely, if the US raises interest rates again or another black swan event occurs, the STH-RP at about $70,600 can be seen as the first cost defense line; more extremely, returning to -1σ would be around $63,400.
This is just a scenario simulation based on the current on-chain cost structure. It will change over time and is only meant to provide a mid-to-short-term psychological range expectation, not a precise price prediction.
Personally, I am staying put without any operations, as I can't do swing trading. The reason for "tightening" is even more solid. The latest data shows that nonfarm payrolls in August added about 171,000 jobs, exceeding previous market expectations, and the job market continues to show some resilience. Betting on tighter policy in September has also resurfaced, and interest rate expectations have once again become the focus of the crypto market. However, the situation is far from conclusive. Wage growth is gradually cooling down, and inflation data remains the most critical variable going forward. As the FOMC meeting on September 15–16 approaches, the next CPI is likely to further change the market's view of the interest rate path. 📊 If CPI rises more than expected and US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthens, will $BTC come under pressure again, or even see a more pronounced pullback? Now, more important than chasing gains is to closely monitor macro data and liquidity changes #HammackBacksHike #BTC #Bitcoin #CPI #FOMCYesterday's non-farm payrolls scared the market again. $BTC retreated from around $82,000, now looking for direction around $80,000 again. But if you look at it a bit longer, I actually think the truly worth trading in September may have already started shifting from "Fed" to "events." Because the market is approaching several points one after another. The first is the US CPI on September 11. The second is the September 15 Senate procedural vote on the Crypto Clarity Act. The third is the Federal Reserve rate decision on September 16. In other words, this current volatility is likely just a pre-storm repricing. That's also why I've recently been reluctant to look at all altcoins together. Now there is clear divergence. $LINK is one category. It has recently seen a series of reports in traditional finance and payment infrastructure. Bottomline partners directly involve over 600 bank customers and annual payments exceeding $16 trillion, and CCIP continues to expand. The logic behind this coin's rise is completely different from purely sentiment-driven altcoins. (CoinStats) $SOL is another category. Its most important thing now is not a few percentage points increase in a single day, but the $100 level. If $BTC is trading sideways and $SOL can keep testing $110 or $120, then funds are clearly seeking a higher risk-reward ratio. And $ZEC. This oneStop comforting yourself with "The Fed won't raise rates."
Officials themselves have spoken: if inflation doesn't return to 2%, they should raise rates. Walsh didn't give a timeline but made it clear—there is no "soft landing version" for the 2% target, nor an implicit green light to "wait and see." Some members are even more aggressive: high inflation has dragged on for five years, and now it's time to act.
The result is: the probability of a rate hike in September has suddenly jumped to 58.6%.
This number was still in the low thirties or just over forty a week ago. In July, there were already three votes on the spot demanding a rate hike—not whispered internally, but openly dissenting. Rates remain at 3.5%–3.75%, but prices have not cooperated.
Many are focused on cooling employment, the AI bubble, and the election year as reasons not to act. That's wrong. This narrative has shifted from "when to cut" to "dare we not raise." Strong employment actually gives them confidence; sticky inflation gives them an excuse.
Next, watch the CPI. If the data is soft, the probability will drop; if the data is strong, 58.6% will quickly become "the market has fully priced it in." The recent jitters in gold, U.S. Treasuries, and growth stocks are not emotional reactions but making way for this probability.
In plain terms: The Fed isn't concerned with whether you think they should raise rates, but whether they themselves believe inflation is coming down. So far, it seems they don't. Federal Reserve officials have recently taken a noticeably hawkish stance.
Chair Powell emphasized at Jackson Hole: if there is no confidence that inflation is returning to 2% "at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace," the Fed "still has work to do."
Some members are even more direct— inflation has been above target for five consecutive years, and if upcoming data do not show sufficient cooling, decisive rate hikes should be implemented.
The market quickly repriced. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, raising the rate range to 3.75%–4.00%, has risen to 58.6%.
This figure was much lower a month ago. The July meeting already showed a 9:3 split, with three regional Fed presidents opposing holding steady on the spot. The current federal funds rate remains at 3.50%–3.75%, PCE year-over-year is about 3.7%, and the annualized rate over the past six months is even higher.
Only two key data points remain in the window: next week's CPI and PPI. Employment is already strong; if inflation remains sticky, a September rate hike will no longer be a "possibility" but the "default path."
The predictive market and futures pricing are not completely aligned but share the same direction: bets on rate cuts are basically zero, and the debate is only "hike now or wait one more time."
The implications for assets are very direct—short-term U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, and gold are extremely sensitive to rate expectations.
58.6% is not a done deal, but it is enough to change position discipline: do not assume "the Fed will definitely hold steady" as a baseline.
Data will speak, and officials have already made the standards clear. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% The ETH roadmap just put Glamsterdam into Q4, but the mainnet launch date is not yet set.
The latest Ethereum.org roadmap shows that this upgrade is still in devnet testing, with the next stop being the Sepolia testnet fork on September 28. The page states "expected Q4 2026" without giving a mainnet block height. If you take September 28 as the mainnet launch, the timeline is misunderstood.
There are two things I care about most in the upgrade. ePBS integrates block building division of labor into the protocol, reducing validators' reliance on external relays; block-level access lists pre-mark data dependencies, paving the way for parallel processing and more stable gas costs. These improve L1 processing methods and won't immediately cause every transaction fee to plummet.
For now, I only see it as a Q4 technical catalyst, waiting to see if Sepolia is on schedule and if clients provide consistent versions. Until the testnet runs stably, I won't increase my ETH position just because of the words "Q4 upgrade."
Source: ethereum.org. Personal record, not investment advice.
$ETH Anyway, I stick to my own view and now I'm waiting for the CPI data. But once the data is out, the market situation will be clear. Money isn't made by those who understand the market after the fact; it's made by buying based on expectations. I predict the CPI will still be high because Brent crude oil has risen above 90, so the CPI data can't be low. Therefore, I still insist on focusing on short positions in September and not going long. I won't go long until the end of the year. I'll just make sure to set my stop losses properly.On-chain data is lively, but Robinhood's own users haven't really come in
Trading volume broke 1 billion, the chain is as hot as a bull market. After Ark Invest analyzed the contract data, they found a problem.
Swap transactions on Robinhood Wallet, activities that can be clearly identified as Robinhood users account for less than 1%, and including long-tail activities at most 5%.
The remaining 95% come from trading terminals like GMGN, Axiom, and OKX.
The chain is hot, but what's hot is the toolchain used for trading Meme, not Robinhood's user base. Most people still prefer to open OKX to trade; Robinhood is just an entry channel.
Traffic hasn't converted; there's still a huge gap between the narrative and the data.Bottoming out before CPI is like handing over decision-making power to a casino
BTC 79579, ETH 2451, the market is as flat as if nothing happened.
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike surged to 58.6%, but prices didn’t crash. Those buying the dip say the bad news is fully priced in, while observers say this is just the calm before the storm.
Entering now is a bet that next week’s CPI will continue to weaken. If core CPI drops to 2.4% as expected, the rate hike probability will quickly fall back, BTC will reclaim 81000, ETH will surge back to 2500, but if CPI rebounds, it’s not a correction, it’s a reversal.
At the current level, upside potential is limited, downside risk is significant. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the CPI verdict; no one is placing heavy bets at this point.
Whether it’s suitable depends on your risk-reward calculation. For me, before CPI is released, doing nothing is the best move. Act only after the direction is clear; earning a little less is better than losing big once.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% August Nonfarm Payrolls Disrupt the Rhythm: The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of about 53,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Moreover, employment data for June and July were revised upward by a total of 55,000.
After the data release, CME interest rate futures quickly priced in nearly a 60% chance of a rate hike on September 16, with some moments even exceeding 60%. In other words, the market has started seriously trading the "September rate hike" again.
But I think the easiest mistake now is to see numbers like 58% or 60% and directly interpret them as "the Fed has already decided to hike rates."
It's far from that simple.
This nonfarm report is indeed strong, but a closer look shows it is not a completely out-of-control employment report. The August job gains were mainly concentrated in food services and drinking places, as well as local government education, with food services adding about 59,000 jobs and local government education adding 42,000; the information sector actually lost 23,000 jobs. Regarding wages, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, which is slightly slower than July's 3.2%.
So this data looks more like an "employment rebound" rather than wages and employment both accelerating again.
That's why I wouldn't judge a September rate hike solely based on this nonfarm report.
What truly decides this game is the CPI on September 11.
In July, US CPI was up 3.4% year-over-year, and core CPI was up 2.5%, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target. The market currently expects August CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI to rise 0.2%. If the final data significantly exceeds expectations, then both nonfarm and inflation lean hawkish, and the probability of a September hike will continue to rise.
Conversely, if CPI cools noticeably, especially if core inflation does not continue to rise, the Fed can completely choose to hold steady.
So don't be led astray by the headline "September rate hike probability at 58.6%."
I actually think the real point of interest is an interesting division emerging within the Fed: one side worries about employment strengthening again and believes inflation remains high; the other worries about over-tightening policy and waits for inflation to continue falling. The July meeting itself showed clear divisions, with the FOMC ultimately voting 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged.
In the coming days, CPI will be the key variable determining direction.
If CPI exceeds expectations, I will be more cautious about US Treasury yields rising further, the dollar strengthening, and BTC, gold, and high-valuation tech stocks being pressured; if CPI is below expectations, the currently heated rate hike expectations may quickly cool down again.
So my judgment is clear:
A September rate hike has shifted from an "unlikely scenario" back to one that needs serious caution, but it is not yet time to make a definitive call.
Nonfarm payrolls have been reported; the next card is CPI.
And this time, with only a few days left until the Fed meeting on September 15-16, the market has very little time to revise expectations.
The real big move is likely not on the nonfarm day but after the CPI release on September 11.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注
The SEC plans to update transfer agent rules, acknowledging on-chain ledgers as legitimate proof of share ownership, signaling that traditional finance is embracing and bottom-fishing Web3. Previously, RWA and on-chain US stocks were stuck in compliance issues, but now institutions like the NYSE can directly put US stocks on-chain through compliant RWA, enabling 24/7 trading.
Once US stocks go on-chain and receive massive liquidity backing from firms like BlackRock, it will directly break through the biggest moat of the crypto world: nonstop trading and low barriers to entry. Liquidity for air coins and altcoins lacking real business support will be instantly drained, and capital will naturally flow to more stable on-chain US stocks.
However, there is a fatal reversal here. Traditional finance’s overnight clearing and risk control still rely on manual processes and are not yet ready to handle true 24/7 trading. Crypto AMMs execute automatically via code, but if US stocks encounter a black swan event overnight, traditional order book liquidity will dry up, causing flash crashes far worse than in crypto.
The future trend is: US stocks will use blockchain architecture to siphon off massive retail funds, while true crypto geeks will shift to more foundational privacy and permissionless protocols. This is not traditional finance compromising with Web3, but a life-and-death battle between centralized clearing and decentralized code clearing systems.
DYORWhat truly drives the market has never been the crypto circle itself.
Many people are still drawing lines to find support, but the breathing rhythm of this BTC/ETH cycle is essentially determined by U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, and Federal Reserve expectations. The recovery in August was backed by easing short-term interest rate expectations, a slowdown in Treasury issuance, combined with continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, which encouraged risk capital to return; crypto is just a channel, macro is the faucet.
Entering September, the market was originally trading on "continued easing," with dovish signals from voting members like Waller temporarily cooling rate hike pricing for September, causing risk assets to rally collectively. But once the employment data came out, the narrative reversed—new job additions exceeded expectations, unemployment rate gave no sense of easing, wage/price stickiness remains, and the market immediately repriced the FOMC path. Short-term bond yields and the dollar rebounded, and although the BTC-to-gold ratio remains high, crypto internally began to show desensitized oscillations, indicating that funds are waiting for confirmation rather than rushing blindly.
The focus going forward is on CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the Fed's dot plot/speech tone. As long as employment and inflation do not soften synchronously, September or subsequent meetings will be pressured by hawkish expectations. In terms of operations, do not treat ETF inflows and on-chain hot money as a long-term moat; liquidity will withdraw first when the macro trend turns. Keep buffer positions and avoid full leverage before events.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ AI remains one of the main altcoin themes for the next bull market cycle. The sector may start in the short term, and promising targets can be traded in advance for short-term gains.
AI Agents are very likely to be among the top three narratives in the next wave of altcoin expansion, but there won't be a broad-based rally. Only about 3–5 projects may truly succeed, depending on real user traffic, monetization ability, and whether their tokens can capture value.
The last altcoin wave was initiated by AI: led by $WLD, followed by FET and ARKM, and ended with the burst of the Agent bubble represented by AI16Z, which created returns of tens to even hundreds of times. A bubble burst does not mean the end of the sector, but a reshuffle. Web3 AI has already been filtered, and this round's logic is more solid than the last.
AI Agents do not have traditional bank accounts but can directly hold wallets, stablecoins, and execute programmed payments, which is the most natural integration of AI and Crypto.
Currently, the total market cap of the AI Agent sector is about $2.95 billion, clearly undervalued overall. In terms of allocation, I am most optimistic about $VIRTUAL, followed by $TAO
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 A few days ago, the Federal Reserve indicated it was paying more attention to next week's CPI data rather than the non-farm payrolls. Then the non-farm payrolls came out very strong, which shows that US employment is very good, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. On the surface, this indicates employment resilience, but in reality, it adds uncertainty to the interest rate path: short-term US Treasuries and the dollar are supported, and risk assets are initially pressured. The market is now trading on the idea that "good data = delayed rate cuts / reversal of rate hike bets," and crypto follows risk appetite. ETH's consolidation after hitting 2500 is a reflection of this.
From a political narrative perspective, low interest rates, strong employment, and stable risk assets do add points for the election; however, the Fed's stance focuses more on inflation and CPI, not just employment. Oil prices, tariffs/trade frictions, fiscal expansion, and geopolitical premiums all make inflation stickiness hard to judge. If subsequent CPI is moderate and wage and price components cool down, it will be easier for the dovish camp to find footing; if data remains strong, liquidity expectations will need to tighten.
In terms of operations, don't chase sentiment; look for support on pullbacks: watch ETH around 2400, if it holds and volume increases, then look for 2500+; similarly for BTC, watch for capital replenishment after macro data settles. Short-term volatility will be large, so avoid overly aggressive leverage.
Personal views for reference only
August non-farm payrolls at 162,000 far exceeded expectations, rate hike bets heat up #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 上线 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡