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$BTC - New nonfarm payrolls: 162,000, market expectation was only 56,000, significantly exceeding expectations (almost 3 times the forecast)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, in line with expectations, no change
- Average hourly earnings YoY: 3.1%, expected 3.0%, wages slightly higher than expected but not explosively rising
- Key point: July data was significantly revised from the original -23,000 to +21,000; combined revision for June and July is an upward adjustment of 55,000 jobs, indicating that the previously observed weakening in employment was an illusion, actual employment is very strong.
For the crypto market: this is negative for nonfarm payrolls
Logic: Super strong employment indicates strong resilience in the US economy, inflation is unlikely to fall quickly, the market bets that the Fed's rate cuts will be further delayed, and a rate hike in September is not ruled out. US Treasury yields and the dollar rose directly, suppressing risk assets (BTC, ETH).
Market reaction after data release
1. BTC quickly dropped from around 82,000, directly breaking below the 80,000 USD level
2. ETH fell below 2,500 USD, short-term rapid decline, altcoins fell even more
3. Massive long liquidations in the futures market, short-term long liquidation scale close to 300 million USD, aggressive stop-loss hunting
4. US 2-year Treasury yield surged, dollar index strengthened, gold simultaneously plunged
But there is a buffer point
Wages only slightly exceeded expectations, no violent surge.
If wages had also exploded significantly, that would have been an extremely strong negative factor.Why did SanDisk surge $SNDK
Logical reasoning analysis: SanDisk and Dell will be included in the S&P 100 on September 21
Cut losses or SanDisk is about to be added to the S&P 100, effective September 21! But this arbitrage logic is completely different from last year's inclusion in the S&P 500! Don't rush blindly! The passive capital pool of the S&P 100 is fundamentally different from that of the S&P 500. Plus, September 18 coincides with the "Quadruple Witching Day"
Market makers' Gamma hedging combined with index rebalancing—will it create a deep pit or a huge spike?
$SNDK $SKHYNIX Anthropic is also aiming for a $2 trillion valuation, AI companies really do make money 😅
#Anthropic冲击2万亿美元IPO估值
Anthropic, the creator of Claude, is reportedly pushing for an IPO valuation of about $2 trillion.
I'm more interested in seeing the prospectus to find out how much is left after deducting the costs of computing power and cloud channel shares from the money paid by customers. Rapid revenue growth is impressive, of course, but the profits on the books need to keep up with this valuation.
Friends in the crypto world should be very familiar with this feeling: the project is indeed impressive, but after buying in, you realize that the early investors' profits have already been accounted for in advance, and your own profits have to wait for future realization.$ZEC ZEC has now broken through 1000, with a current market cap of 17 billion, directly surging to around the 10th position on CMC by market cap. It has risen about 94% in the past month. Its rise is no longer purely fundamental; it has fully entered a short squeeze phase. In the most recent surge, approximately 36.6 million USD worth of ZEC contracts were liquidated, of which about 34.5 million USD were shorts. Meanwhile, ZEC futures open interest has reached about 2.3 billion USD.
After this short squeeze ends, if there is no new incremental buying, the pullback will be very rapid. Last November, after breaking the new high of 700, it was halved within a week, dropping to 300, and bottomed at 200. At that time, no one was talking about privacy coin narratives or technical upgrades.
It's okay to miss this rally, just don't miss the crash; a crash is also a money-making opportunity.
"If you are bullish, go long; if not, go short."#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
I believe whether BTC's momentum of outperforming gold after surpassing 80,000 can continue mainly depends on whether spot demand can absorb the sell orders in the $80,000 to $82,500 range.
There are three sets of data as the basis for judgment. First, the US spot BTC ETF saw overall net inflows in August, but at the beginning of September, the capital flow shifted from one-sided buying to two-way fluctuations, indicating institutions have not yet formed continuous buying momentum. Second, one BTC can currently be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, a ratio that has reached a new high since January this year. The 90-day correlation between the two has also risen to the highest level since 2020, showing that the narratives of debt expansion and declining monetary purchasing power are simultaneously driving both asset classes. Third, key figures' actions: Jiang Zhuoer fully liquidated near $82,050, while Yi Lihua and Scaramucci remain bullish. This divergence itself indicates that the chip structure above 80,000 is not solid.
Currently, OKX spot BTC maintains a high level, supported by cooling interest rate hike expectations and falling US Treasury yields, but these two factors belong to macro liquidity-level support, not aggressive buying funds. The real direction is decided by the ETF side—if net inflows in September can recover, the 80,000 integer level can turn from resistance into strong support; if two-way fluctuations or net outflows continue, the sell orders between $80,000 and $82,500 will repeatedly suppress the price.
@OKX星球 Recently, a familiar voice has emerged in the market: Is the altcoin season coming? ETH/BTC is strengthening, some mainstream altcoins are clearly outperforming BTC, and market sentiment is gradually shifting from "just buying Bitcoin" to high-risk assets. On the surface, the altcoin season seems to be showing signs of it. But if you look at the longer timeline, it feels more like a warm-up for the altcoin season than a full launch. A very important indicator is the Altcoin Season Index. By common definition, only when the vast majority of mainstream altcoins have consistently outperformed BTC over the past 90 days is it closer to a true altcoin season. Currently, the index is still only around 28, still far from the 75 confirmation line. What's even more noteworthy is BTC's market share. Currently, Bitcoin's market share remains around 60% or even higher. A true full-fledged counterfeit season usually requires seeing BTC's rise slow down or even sideways movement, while funds continue to spread from BTC to ETH, and then to small and mid-cap assets. Currently, this capital rotation has not fully formed. Therefore, I tend to define the current market as: "Local altcoin rallies are happening, but the real altcoin season has not yet been confirmed." The difference between the two is very important. If only a few AI, DeFi, MEME, or certain popular narratives suddenly surge, it is likely just a clustering of funds rather than an overall altcoin market bull market. The market structure in 2026 will also be different from before, with institutional funds more concentrated in BTC, and the number and supply of tokens significantly increasedThere was only one thing in the global market this week: nonfarm payrolls at 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000. The probability of a rate hike in September rose to about 60%. BTC fell from 82K to 79K; US stocks rose in storage but consumption fell; A-shares in the STAR Market fell 5% for the first 50 weeks. The direction hasn't been revealed yet, but the answer is approaching. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🪙 Crypto | BTC hits a weekly low of 76.9K, nonfarm payrolls smash back to 79K BTC followed a classic pattern this week: "shake out first, then rally, then crash back." From Monday to Thursday, BTC surged from around 77,300 to 82,300, hitting a new high since May. On Thursday, volume surged and it broke through 82,000. On Friday, the nonfarm payroll was 162,000 vs. the expected 56,000, with rate hike expectations rising from about 52% to about 60%. BTC fell from 82K to 79,568, now at about 79,700. This week's volatility is about 7% (low 76,968→ high 82,300). ETH is weak, with nearly zero weekly gains. Strong Phishing Differentiation — ZEC approaches $1,000, privacy coins surge; Layer 2/DeFi lines surged then retreated, ARB/UNI are both falling. 💡 Uncle's observation: 82K is sentiment, 79K is reality. The nonfarm rolls have already pinned the "rate hike probability" near 60%. Next week's CPI will be the real verdict. BTC fluctuates around 79KMany people still associate ZEC with "an old privacy coin from a few years ago" or "a risky asset that could be delisted by exchanges at any time." But recently, ZEC's market has been exceptionally strong, not only surging nearly 20% in a single day, but also seeing a comprehensive explosion in trading volume and capital attention.
Simply put, it has mainly achieved three things recently:
1. It has hitched a ride on traditional US stock market funds (the core catalyst).
Grayscale's Zcash Trust (ZCSH) successfully debuted on the NYSE Arca in the US stock market.
In plain terms: this is equivalent to opening a compliant green channel for large institutions and traditional brokerage accounts in the US stock market to buy ZEC. Institutions don’t need to register on crypto exchanges; they can buy it like stocks using their US stock accounts. In just a few weeks, the product’s assets under management soared to over $400 million, directly absorbing more than 420,000 ZEC.
2. Tokens have been locked up in concentrated holdings, making the circulating supply lighter.
ZEC’s total supply is capped at 21 million, the same as Bitcoin, so its token structure is relatively tight.
Behind the nearly 20% single-day net asset value surge of the Grayscale product is real money buying and locking tokens in the secondary market. With selling pressure exhausted and institutional incremental funds entering, the circulating supply was naturally "pulled up" with ease.
3. The market’s pricing of "privacy" has changed.
Previously, the market thought "privacy = money laundering = regulatory crackdown." Now the perception is: "controllable privacy" has become an extremely scarce and essential demand. $ZEC $BTC This Week's Macro Highlights: Nonfarm Payrolls Rekindle Fed Rate Hike Expectations! What Should Retail Investors Do Next?
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, three times the expected amount! The probability of a Fed rate hike in September instantly surged to 60%, causing Bitcoin to drop from 82,000 to 79,000.
This is not just simple negative news but a market re-pricing of an "extended rate hike cycle." The US-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude oil above $95, adding to inflationary pressures. Citi has already postponed rate cut expectations to mid-2027.
Old Zhang's view is clear: the current macro liquidity tightening window has been extended, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets is moving downward. But strangely, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of as much as $3.8 billion over the past three weeks. Institutions are bottom-fishing while retail investors panic; this sense of division is a true reflection.
For the crypto market, the CPI data next Wednesday before the September 15 FOMC meeting is crucial. If CPI exceeds expectations again, the probability of a rate hike could break 70%, and Bitcoin will likely continue to test support at 75,000–77,000; if CPI falls back, a dual rebound of "cooling rate hike expectations + continued institutional buying" may occur.
What should retail investors do now? Avoid heavy bets before the direction is clear. Position control is more important than anything else. But I don’t think the real flush has started yet. Bitcoin just pushed back above $81K earlier this week, while $ZEC and $HYPE also broke into fresh highs. The important part is that risk appetite is expanding — at least for now. But macro risk is building underneath. August payrolls came in at +162K, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. That pushed September Fed rate-hike expectations sharply higher, with markets pricing roughly a 60%+ probability of a hike ahead of thHyperliquid entering the US market might not be as simple as walking in with a passport.
Instead, it’s about "borrowing a door."
Currently, Hyperliquid is negotiating with Payward to bring some Hyperliquid-related perpetual contracts to US users through Bitnomial, which is regulated by the CFTC under Payward.
Because the hardest part of the US market has never been whether there are users.
It’s whether you can get past the regulatory gate.
And Bitnomial, held by Payward, happens to already have a regulatory framework for exchange, clearing, and brokerage operations.
So the truly interesting part of this is that on-chain DEXs are actively seeking compliant interfaces with TradFi.
Before, it was:
On-chain markets running away from regulation.
Now it’s:
I don’t necessarily have to move the chain into the US.
But I can put my trading products into a compliant US box.
More importantly, HYPE.
A significant portion of Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue will be used to buy back HYPE from the market, which means that theoretically, trading volume growth can translate into token demand.
But don’t rush to calculate how much HYPE the US market can push.
They haven’t even gotten regulatory approval yet.
What’s really worth watching is, after this door opens, whether the new trading volume in the US can actually turn into new value capture for HYPE.
Otherwise, users come in.
Who really profits from compliance?
$HYPE $BTC $DASH DASH surged then pulled back, what to do if your long positions are stuck? Should you be bullish or bearish at the current position?
DASH surged to around 74 then quickly pulled back, but there is no clear breakdown so far. The sideways support around 67 is still holding, and the bullish structure has not been broken yet.
So, I’m not panicking here. I’m placing long positions again near 67, aiming to profit from the rebound after this pullback.
My view #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
If 67 holds, continue to be bullish with a target near 74.
If 64 is effectively broken, cut losses promptly and don’t stubbornly hold on.$BTC | $ETH | $SOL THE REAL CATALYST
NFP came in at 162K, beating expectations normally a bearish signal for crypto as strong employment can keep the Fed hawkish.
But the market focused on something else: pressure for rate cuts.
That narrative quickly pushed:
BTC: $77K → $81K+
ETH: → $2.5K+
SOL: strong rebound with the highest volatility.
This rally is expectation-driven, not growth-driven. #HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the most painful part is that this is not like a typical rate hike trade.
The short end watches the Fed, the long end watches trust. Whether the market is willing to buy long-term U.S. Treasuries is essentially a vote on whether the U.S. fiscal situation can remain stable over the coming decades, whether inflation will repeatedly flare up again, and whether overseas buyers are still willing to take over. Now that yields are high, it’s not just that "interest is more attractive," but also that price volatility is scarier.
Many people see long-term bond yields rising and their first reaction is to think they can buy. But the harshest reality of long-term bonds is that while the coupon looks comfortable, losses from duration are very real. After debt pressure heats up, Treasury buybacks, central bank statements, and cooling data may bring some relief, but as long as buyers start demanding higher compensation, the market will keep being worn down by this issue.
#长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 #ZEC hits new all-time high
The current situation with $ZEC is probably most painful not for those who didn't buy, but for those who bought at $800 and feel it's overpriced, those who hesitate to chase the price at $900, and those who are waiting for a pullback at $1000.
As a result, it pushed up again.
ZEC recently surged to around $1,050, continuously setting new highs over the past decade. Just a month ago, it was hovering around $500, and now it has nearly doubled. Over the past 30 days, it has risen by nearly 94%, and in the past year, it has surged by more than 2,300%.
To be honest, this trend can no longer be explained simply by the phrase "privacy coin hype."
After the launch of Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF, it has already brought in at least $34.4 million in net inflows; meanwhile, the narrative around privacy has resurfaced, and miner hash power has entered the scene, with capital, narrative, and chips all converging at the right moment.
The most ruthless are the short sellers.
When $ZEC broke through $1,000, approximately $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with $34.5 million of those being short positions.
This is very much like the cryptocurrency world.
The more people think "it's so high that it must fall," the more they open short positions; the more short positions there are, the higher the price rises, and the forced liquidation orders turn into buy orders, ultimately fueling the upward movement for the short sellers themselves.
From $500 to $1,000, you can rely on trends, but above $1,000, it's all about emotions, liquidity, and who ends up holding the bag!
ZEC's strong breakout has directly driven DASH, ZEN, and XMR to rise in tandem, fully igniting the privacy coin sector!$BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
SanDisk's surge of nearly 12% is not because NAND suddenly increased in price, but because capital finally realized— even if price hikes slow down, storage remains an indispensable part of AI infrastructure.
On September 4th, SanDisk closed at $1740, soaring 11.9% in a single day, becoming the S&P 500's top gainer that day. The storage sector collectively rallied, with SK Hynix up over 8%, Micron up over 6%, and even more impressively, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.4%—while the broader market fell, chips were rising, and capital was moving from software to hardware.
The direct trigger was Dell's earnings report. Dell's quarterly AI server revenue exceeded expectations, and its full-year AI server shipment guidance was raised from $15 billion to $20 billion. The market immediately reacted—capital withdrew from software stocks and poured into storage and semiconductor equipment.
But the truth about price hikes is—NAND prices are indeed still rising, just at a slower pace. In Q3, NAND prices across all categories maintained a month-over-month increase, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to Q2, with some categories' month-over-month increases narrowing to under 10%.
At the end of August, SanDisk announced a joint investment with Kioxia exceeding $31 billion to expand production in Japan, targeting completion by 2032. The market's current pricing logic is: short-term price hike slowdown is a fact, but the long-term demand for storage in AI infrastructure is far from over. Capital is betting not on next quarter's prices, but on a structural shortage over the next three years. $ZEC $ETH $BTC #闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 A recent development in the Japanese market has cast a cautious shadow over the crypto world. According to reports, the two major trading platforms SBI and BITPOINT simultaneously delisted nine cryptocurrencies, including familiar names like $APT, $ETC, $BNB, and $PEPE, with the notable inclusion of $TRUMP.👀
This is not a simple project elimination. The uniqueness of $TRUMP lies in its close ties to the U.S. political landscape. After evaluation, Japanese exchanges clearly deemed the regulatory uncertainties behind it to be beyond an acceptable range. This decision reflects East Asian markets' cautious stance toward politically sensitive assets, contrasting sharply with the speculative enthusiasm seen in some Western markets.
This move may serve as a reference for platforms in other regions with strict regulations. When assets are deeply intertwined with political narratives, the boundaries of trading compliance become increasingly blurred, and liquidity may quickly come under pressure when policy directions shift. For holders, this is a reminder that the narrative hype of a token does not equate to a pass within the global regulatory framework.🌏
Risk warning: Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; delisting and regulatory developments may trigger liquidity risks. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance. $BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The moment the screen lit up, the entire market surged upward, and I slammed my phone on the table for thirty seconds to calm down. Last time you rushed in because you were afraid of missing out, did you end up in the most awkward spot? Honestly, in this kind of sudden rally, the easiest mistake isn't looking the wrong way, but being pushed by surrounding emotions, only thinking to get in when everyone else is excited. I personally prefer to narrow my focus to a few truly understandable stocks rather than filling my self-selected list. My observation framework is actually quite simple: - BTC and ETH are the bottom position logic, determining overall risk preference - SOL and XRP are elastic products used to gauge market temperature - High-volatility instruments like BEAT are only suitable for testing with small positions What I care about more are the signals sent by the derivatives market. Has the funding rate behind this rally shown extreme deviation? Is open interest steadily rising or suddenly surging? If the funding rate for perpetual contracts is already ridiculously high, it means the market is crowded with long-chasing investors. Entering now means you're not trading direction, but helping others carry their sedan chair. The repricing caused by events is often partially digested before the news even materializes. When everyone sees the price rise before acting, you're no longer buying expectations but others taking profits. I prefer to wait for prices to pull back and open interest to reshuffle before seeing for structural entry opportunities. On the bullish side, if macro data truly supports risk assets, BTC stands outIn recent days, the US storage sector has experienced volatility and accumulation, but last night it finally broke through with high volume and stabilized. If there is a short-term pullback, there's no need to panic excessively. The main logic right now is: AI giants are continuing to compete for storage resources. SK hynix's high-end HBM capacity has been locked in long-term orders, making it hard for small and medium-sized manufacturers to secure supply, and high-end products are even scarcer. Although the previous rally has ended, after deleveraging, the storage sector has stabilized from low levels, and I believe there is still a chance for a second rally going forward. After all, with sustained AI demand growing, if a memory leader with strong profitability remains undervalued, the market will find it hard to ignore this value in the long term. 🔍 QQQ's Key Moves: Why Still Pay Attention to the Market? Because the index environment directly affects individual stock performance, especially SK hynix, which has been included in QQQ, QQQ's performance is worth closely watching. My judgment is: before the end of October, the market may form a good medium- to long-term positioning opportunity. After recent QQQ sideways consolidation, I prefer a shakeout structure of "false breakout → pullback→ rebound → final false breakdown." Key focus: Around 748: Possible false breakout; Around 686: Key lower boundary of the range; Around 714: Middle band; 686–714: Subsequent oscillation range. If the false breakout is completed and quickly recovered, it could become a good medium- to long-term signal. If BTC continues to maintain its bullish structure, the US tech sector$BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #HammackBacksHike [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund (NBIM) has proposed reducing its holdings of about $80 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, lowering the government bond allocation from 70% to 50%. The world's largest sovereign fund with $2.3 trillion in assets has dealt a new heavy blow to U.S. debt.
It's not that they won't buy U.S. Treasuries anymore; they just find the yields insufficiently attractive and want to switch to "higher-yield bonds." NBIM plainly stated in their letter: a 50% allocation to government bonds is enough to cover liquidity needs, and the remainder should be allocated to assets that offer more risk premium. In other words, they think U.S. Treasury interest rates are too low!
The impact on Bitcoin is unavoidable.
The sovereign fund's reduction in U.S. debt means the world's most conservative capital is re-evaluating the creditworthiness of the dollar. If this trend continues, funds will flow into assets with fixed supply and out of government reach—gold and Bitcoin. In recent months, both gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs have simultaneously attracted capital, making this logic explicit. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has reached its highest level in six years, shifting from a "high-beta tech stock" to a "macro hedge asset."
But Pharaoh must remind you, NBIM's letter is only a "recommendation," and the final decision won't be submitted to parliament until spring 2027. The short-term impact is more emotional than an immediate $80 billion sell-off. The real determinants of Bitcoin's direction remain next week's CPI data and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 Hyperliquid is entering the US market and may be finding a more realistic path.
Currently, Hyperliquid Labs is negotiating with Payward, planning to leverage Bitnomial, which is regulated by the CFTC under Payward, to allow US users to trade certain perpetual contracts related to Hyperliquid.
Note, this does not mean opening the Hyperliquid App directly to US users.
Instead, the trading is placed within an already regulated derivatives framework. The related plan has been submitted to the CFTC, but final approval has not yet been granted.
This is actually quite interesting.
In the past, the biggest advantage of on-chain DEXs was freedom.
But the flip side of freedom is the difficulty of directly accessing heavily regulated markets like the US.
Now, the path Hyperliquid has chosen is precisely to separate "on-chain liquidity" from the "traditional regulatory gateway."
Bitnomial handles compliance.
Hyperliquid provides market and product capabilities.
If this path ultimately succeeds, the real impact might not just be on trading volume.
Currently, most of Hyperliquid's protocol revenue is recycled through mechanisms used to buy back HYPE.
So, with more US users, what’s truly worth watching is not just how many traders increase.
But how much of the new trading volume ultimately converts into value capture for HYPE.
The market can easily assign a valuation.
Whether revenue can grow accordingly is another matter.
$HYPE $BTC 🚨 ETH's drop last night was not just a simple technical correction; the real "killer" was the non-farm payrolls!
Many saw $ETH fall below 2500 and thought it was just bulls getting crushed.
But connecting last night's data with the market situation, the logic is actually very clear 👇
1. Non-farm data directly disrupted market expectations
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000.
The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% year-over-year, and July employment data was also revised upward.
In short: employment is much stronger than the market imagined.
The market was originally trading on "rate cuts + looser liquidity," but after the non-farm data came out, expectations were instantly shattered.
The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, so risk assets naturally took the first hit.
2. At the moment the data was released, the market collectively panicked
After the non-farm announcement, BTC fell below 80,000, and $ETH directly lost 2500.
High-level long positions stopped out, leveraged funds liquidated, combined with rapidly shifting sentiment to bearish, the first wave of selling was very fierce.
Even gold simultaneously dropped sharply.
So last night looked more like a typical:
"Expectation gap → liquidity shock → leveraged panic selling"
3. So what about ETH going forward?
I think the most important thing here is not to rush to guess whether it will rise or fall, but to see if subsequent macro data can continue to reinforce the expectation of "higher interest rates for longer."
After the first sharp drop, ETH did not continue to experience an uncontrolled one-sided sell-off but began to oscillate and recover.
#DailyOrbit After the non-farm payrolls landed, the market's game logic has been completely rewritten.
The bulls and bears are no longer one-sided; the most direct change in the contract market is that the wave of collective frantic long position additions has receded.
Currently, large players mainly trade back and forth within a range.
They place short orders to hedge during rallies and set long orders to catch rebounds during pullbacks, with heavy one-sided bets on sharp rises or falls significantly shrinking.
This position structure means the market has officially entered a wide-range oscillation mode.
In the short term, it is difficult to replicate the previous one-sided move of several hundred points in one go.
$ETH contract leverage volatility is significantly higher than $BTC.
Once a rapid spike occurs, the chain liquidation scale linked to ETH will be much larger than Bitcoin's, with stronger destructive power.
Coupled with the macro headwinds brought by the explosive non-farm data and ETH whales cashing out at high levels.
The market is still in a severe overbought digestion phase in the short term.
In a wide-range oscillation environment, the tolerance for chasing highs and cutting losses is extremely low.
Do not aggressively chase orders; hold cash patiently and wait for better odds.
The amplitude of the September oscillation and shakeout will most likely increase; quietly wait for the Q4 window.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% The big rebound from MU to SNDK has already been realized. Fortunately, the previous warnings still hold true—the memory bottleneck hasn't changed at all, and neither have CW lasers or substrates.
Short-term sentiment depends on price and macro conditions; it can change suddenly. But I believe many supply-demand imbalances will be more severe than people expect:
· Today, a Japanese distributor told Nikkei that the memory demand gap is 40–60% (demand exceeds supply by 67–150%), with overall prices expected to rise 50% by year-end
· SPCX was not included in that 1.3 trillion super-large scale capex (Wells Fargo estimates AI capex at about 263 billion), so total capex data might hold surprises
· SNDK says an 80% gross margin can be sustained until 2030... S&P 100 is beckoning
· Also, companies like Samsung now let you see clearly into 2031
Memory prices do indeed fluctuate wildly. Some of my positions have risen over 270%, with unrealized gains cushioning the volatility, making it easier to hold through the swings.
But ultimately—the fundamentals don’t always align with short-term prices.
This way of thinking applies equally to other industries.Next week's token unlock list, major risks: HYPE unlock is an emotional landmine, avoid touching RAIN unlock; PUMP is like adding fuel to the fire; SEI is a race to see who runs fastest.
1. Tomorrow $HYPE unlocks 9.92 million tokens, nominal value $797 million, given to core contributors. Sounds scary, but not necessarily so.
This team historically only claims a small portion of the unlocked amount, CMC estimates that only about 36 million actually enter circulation.
2. RAIN is even more ominous. Instead of a single-day explosion, it linearly releases $569 million worth over 30 days, bleeding daily, accounting for 6.35% of circulating supply.
The unlocked amount far exceeds daily trading volume; whoever takes it gets stuck.
3. On the 12th, two tokens unlock:
APT releases 14.36 million to the community, small amount, no big deal;
$PUMP releases the largest batch of the month, 1.3% of market cap, meme narrative is weak, basically rubbing salt in the wound.
4. The real landmine is mid-month, on the 15th $SEI unlocks 1.5% of market cap, coinciding with the Fed meeting the next day, the riskiest time of the month.Yesterday, US semiconductor stocks surged sharply. Is this a short squeeze? What about the future? 1. Event Overview On the morning of September 4th at 8:30, the non-farm payroll data was released. 162,000 new jobs were added, nearly 2.5 times the median expectation. This data should have extinguished any easing hopes. Then Wang spoke out. He wrote on his platform: Cut interest rates, or I will stop trading with all deficit countries. He ordered the Federal Reserve to "be smarter and act like a patriot." CNBC immediately commented: this threat is "extreme." Legal background: The Supreme Court ruled in February that tariff weapons are illegal, and the International Trade Court ruled again in May. This weapon is legally empty. So the bond market did not move. The oil market did not move. Only the stock market was ignited. At the close that day: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.38%, SOXX rose 3.52%, SanDisk rose 11.90%, Micron rose 6.10%, Nvidia rose 0.84%. The S&P closed down. The VIX did not fall but rose, closing at 14.53, up 1.47%. A sharp surge occurred amid a comprehensive macro headwind. This alone says a lot. 2. Framework for Determining a Short Squeeze To determine a short squeeze, two sets of evidence are needed. One is static: how large is the short position, and how many days are needed to cover it. The other is dynamic: whether the volume and price behavior on the day show signs of forced covering. Industry standards are clear. A short position close to 10% of the float is a "serious warning." Covering days over five days have the potential for structural squeeze. Less than two days is low-level. Now, let's look at four📌$SNDK SanDisk｜The Cyclical Logic Behind the Big Bullish Candle
Surged nearly 12% last night! Non-farm payrolls pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 58.6%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3.3%, with SanDisk leading the semiconductor rally.
💡Core Logic:
The slope of storage price increases is slowing, with Q3 contract price hikes falling back to 10-20% from over 70% in Q2.
AI data centers continue to consume enterprise-grade flash memory, with Q4 revenue up 51% quarter-over-quarter; two-thirds driven by price increases, one-third by shipments, and gross margin close to 80%.
While securing a long-term order worth 93.9 billion, SanDisk is also investing 31 billion USD to expand BiCS10 capacity in Japan, profiting from the high cycle while positioning for the future.
⚠️Important Reminder: Slowing price increases ≠ trend reversal. The AI storage logic remains, but the stock price has already priced in optimistic expectations. Chasing highs risks a double hit from rate hikes and cyclical returns.
Wait for a pullback to the moving average and stabilization of NAND spot prices before seeking a second entry opportunity.
High volatility, so avoid aggressive positions.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码
$SNDK DASH at 67 USD, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: a sharp surge followed by a pullback, retail investors are conflicted.
The 24-hour high hit 73-75, the low was pulled up from 49, with a volatility exceeding 40%. Trading volume surged to 550 million USD, with a turnover rate over 60% against an 850 million market cap. Daily RSI is 75-86, severely overbought.
First thing: this rally is not DASH's own story.
After the Grayscale Zcash ETF launched, AUM surpassed 400 million USD, and funds started rotating from ZEC to second-tier privacy coins. DASH was lifted, but it doesn't have a corresponding ETF itself.
So what is this rally? Sector beta, not fundamental dominance.
The same script happened in 2021: ZEC rose first, DASH followed; when ZEC stopped, DASH was the first to be dumped.
Second thing: this turnover rate signals both capital inflow and withdrawal.
24-hour volume is 550 million, market cap only 850 million, turnover rate over 60%.
Such volume means real money is coming in, not a slow decline or rise. But conversely—once sentiment cools, the pullback will be just as fast.
In 2024, WIF showed a similar turnover rate near 3 USD, then halved within a week. Volume is a double-edged sword; it can send you to the moon or smash you through the floor.
Third thing: two technical signals must be taken seriously.
Signal one: daily RSI 75-86, severely overbought. This is the aftermath of a direct jump from 49 to 75, a short-term surge that needs digestion.
Signal two: contract funding rate turned positive, longs are crowded. The entire DASH perpetual contract market has huge volume; positive funding + overbought + high turnover = short-term long crowding. Historical pattern: every time altcoins hit extreme positive funding, a cleansing wave follows.
Resistance above: 69-70 → 72-75 → 80-85 → 95-100
Support below: 62-64 → 56-58 → 52 (trend invalidation line) → 40-47 (deep retracement)
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Privacy sector resonance, Zcash ETF funds overflow
Evolution shielded transactions + platform upgrades, narrative update
Daily golden cross + bullish moving averages, mid-term bullish shift
Volume surge, funds are indeed entering
On the other side:
Daily RSI 75-86 overbought, needs pullback digestion
Funding rate turned positive, contract longs crowded
DASH is being pumped, no ETF logic of its own
If ZEC cools off, DASH will fall faster
Trading strategy
For those with no position:
Two entry points:
A. Trend long (main strategy)
Buy on a pullback to 62-64 with shrinking volume and stabilization, safer at 56-58. Stop loss if daily closes decisively below 52, targets 72-75 → 80-85 → 95-100.
B. Short on rebound (short-term only)
Consider light short if price rebounds to 71-75 and faces resistance with volume spike upper shadow. Stop loss if price holds above 76, targets 64 → 58. This is a counter-trend trade, position size must be smaller.
For those already long:
67 is not for adding positions, but reducing. Take profits by removing 1/3 to 1/2 of floating gains, move stop loss up to 58-60. If price reclaims and holds above 72 on 4h, add back the reduced portion.
In the next 3-7 days, three possible scenarios:
Baseline (highest probability): oscillate near 67, decide direction after a pullback to 60-64. If 62 holds, then target 72-75.
Bullish bias: quickly reclaim and hold 70, target 75, then look for 80+. Requires volume not to collapse.
Bearish bias: break 62, next stop 56-58; if daily falls below 52, this pulse ends.
DASH now is like the follower after ZEC's 2021 surge—
Leader rises first, second-tier follows; the follow-up is often the strongest but also the easiest to trap people at the top.
At 67, do you dare to chase?
The worst in crypto is not missing the leader, but missing the leader's gains while fully holding the follower's losses.
What is your DASH cost basis?
Will you follow this privacy rotation?
$BTC $ZEC $DASH BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #HammackBack$BTC , although pressured by high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, has returned to around 79,000u. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $BTC 730.9 million, the largest since mid-January. Macro is selling, institutions are buying; right now, BTC is basically a clash of these two forces.
$ETH remains a highly elastic version of BTC. It rebounded about 5% in a single day earlier.
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHighEveryone is asking the pharaohs: Is the September rate hike really about to fall? CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has reached 58.6%. Just a few days ago, when Waller was dovish, the probability of a rate hike was pushed down to around 50%, with the Bitcoin market skyrocketing from 76,200 to 81,780. But as soon as the nonfarm payroll 162,000 came out, the probability rebounded above 60%, now steady at 58.6%. The bull-bear battle is even fiercer than the pharaoh tugging a camel in the desert. Strong data, more hawkish officials, double pressure. Cleveland Fed President Hamack directly declared: "Now is the time to act." She was one of three officials at the July FOMC meeting who opposed keeping rates unchanged, with the original statement being that "monetary policy is not putting enough pressure on the economy." New York Fed President Williams also added a sharp answer—whether current monetary policy is enough to bring inflation back to 2%, he has no clear answer. Waller is the only variable. He made it clear whether to add September or August CPI, and if inflation data is hot, a rate hike will be considered, but he also expressed concerns about the risk of rate hikes during falling inflation. Within a hawkish camp, a dovish backup plan has been left open. The impact on Bitcoin is very direct. After the nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations at 162,000, Bitcoin plunged from 81,400 to around 79,800, falling below the 80,000 mark. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 7.6 basis points, the dollar index rose 0.3%, and a strong dollar increased financing costs for crypto assets. Expectations of tightening macro liquidity are suppressing risk assetsAugust nonfarm payrolls superficially strong but endogenous growth only about 60,000; Fed's probability of rate hike this year rises to 58.6%
The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far exceeding the expected 56,000, but after excluding one-off factors such as leisure and hospitality replenishment and government education, the endogenous employment growth was only about 60,000. The data simultaneously refutes both the narratives of employment collapse and overheating, but due to employment resilience, tightening expectations have risen, with the FedWatch implied probability of a September rate hike increasing from 50% to 58.6%.
The US August nonfarm data shows a clear pattern of superficial strength but moderate underlying conditions. Data released on September 5 shows that August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 56,000, with the previous value revised upward by a total of 55,000, including July nonfarm payrolls revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000. However, after excluding one-off factors such as employment replenishment in leisure and hospitality and government education sectors, the endogenous employment growth in August was only about 60,000, indicating that the true strength of the labor market is far less optimistic than the total data suggests. Structurally, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in August, and the labor force participation rate rose to 61 1 $BTC exchanges for 18.17 ounces of gold, truly living up to the name of digital gold
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
If you only focus on whether BTC has surpassed $80,000, it's easy to overlook a fact: recently, BTC has actually outperformed gold.
On September 4th, the BTC-to-gold ratio rose to 18.17, meaning one BTC can be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold. Gold itself is still rising, yet BTC has pushed this ratio to the highest level since January this year, indicating BTC's relative strength is indeed significant.
But I wouldn’t directly interpret this as "funds fleeing gold for BTC."
A rising ratio only means BTC is increasing faster than gold, or even if both are falling, as long as gold falls more, the ratio will still rise.
So what’s truly worth watching is not who is stronger now, but whether BTC can maintain this advantage when the next risk arrives.
If BTC is stronger than gold during the rise and also more resilient during the pullback, then it really has a bit of the "digital gold" flavor.
This new high adds points to BTC, but we shouldn’t jump to conclusions yet.
Next, let’s keep watching.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Complete Logic of Bitcoin's Price Increase
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile
It can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply Side: Scarcity, Four-Year Halving (Fundamental Basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin output in half, reducing new market selling pressure.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major tops mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid chips on exchanges, so small amounts of capital can push prices up.
2. Demand Side: Real Buying Pressure, Institutions Are the Biggest Variable This Cycle
1. US Spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pensions, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend.
2. Listed Companies Hoarding Coins (e.g., MicroStrategy)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating market chips.
3. Global Retail and High Net Worth Allocation
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro Liquidity (Most Impactful, Primary Short-Term Driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations and declining US Treasury yields
Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars easier to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; in tight liquidity, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory Policy Expectations
- Positive: Clear US crypto legislation, softened SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Total bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip Structure + Leverage Short Squeeze (Short-Term Surge Catalyst)
1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: when price breaks key resistance, accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying, further driving up prices—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid large bullish candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative and Belief: Value Consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed rate hikes again, liquidity tightening; US Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations and panic selling.
Summary in one sentence
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Relying on a single factor leads to misjudgment; only multiple factors resonating together can produce a major bull market.Robinhood Chain hasn't collapsed; it's that its most profitable product—the meaningless meme—that has started to cash out. The Blob delay just gave everyone a decent excuse to exit.Stunned as Robinhood Chain revenue hits a new high, but funds are net outflowing
Deutsche Bank just raised the target price to 136 with a straightforward reason: Robinhood Chain's transaction fees surged. On September 2, the single-day on-chain revenue was about $4.01 million, totaling about $10.8 million in the first five days, with about half from the parent company. The ledger looks like infrastructure soaring, and some directly take this as a signal of an on-chain bull market.
Looking deeper is more painful: the main volume drivers are Meme and launchpads, not the tokenized US stocks themselves. RWA is just a shell, speculation is the soul. High turnover can blow up the transaction fees, but at the same time net inflow turns negative. Buzz does not equal money settling; revenue and settlement are two separate curves.
On Friday, there was even a trading data gap on Ethereum of about 14 minutes; blocks were still being produced but data hadn't stabilized. The hype is discounted again. Don't listen to the peak fee story for infrastructure.
Suddenly understood: don't treat on-chain revenue as a smart money entry signal. First, see if net inflow can keep up, then see if the parent company HOOD can sustain its cut. A steep revenue curve with a flat capital curve is the real gap this round. The transaction fee hype is very fake; settlement is real. Don't be fooled into entering by daily fee peaks. Buzz does not equal settlement #Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 $BTC Although it was pressured by the high interest rate expectations after the non-farm payrolls, it has already rebounded to around 79,000. More importantly, the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $730.9 million, directly setting the largest record since mid-January — macro funds are selling off, while institutions are buying against the trend. Right now, BTC is a tug-of-war between these two forces.
$ETH Still the same as before, a highly elastic version of BTC, it previously rebounded about 5% in a single day, rising more aggressively than BTC and falling just as sharply.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Pineapple Financial has migrated over $1B worth of collateral records, totaling 2,079 entries, to Injective, and plans to add records worth more than $10B in the future. It's important to understand that the real challenge with RWA has never been minting, but rather data authenticity, privacy, debt ownership, default handling, and legal enforcement. So this migration by Pineapple only involves collateral records; it does not mean the debt has been tokenized, nor does it mean users own the rights to the mortgage income.
Regardless, this is another major move in RWA. It’s not about turning a stock into a token, but about attempting to put real mortgage data and financial asset processes on-chain. From records (data on-chain) to tokens (tradable assets on-chain), there is still an intermediate step of claims (debt or income rights on-chain).Waller helped bulls recover 80,000, but a single non-farm payroll report wiped it all out.
On September 5, BTC's current price is about $79,700, down just over 1% intraday, sliding between 78,600 and 81,400 in 24 hours.
The non-farm payroll on the evening of September 4 was really harsh: 162,000 new jobs added, while the expectation was only 56,000, and July's figure was revised up from -23,000 to +21,000. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 49% directly back to around 60%.
BTC dropped from 81,340 to 79,660 in five minutes, bulls didn't even have time to react.
The funding side hasn't fled: on September 3, BTC ETF net inflow in a single day was $731 million, the third largest this year (BlackRock iShares BIT alone took $450 million), total assets surpassed 103.3 billion; Strategy resumed buying 4,603 coins after a two-month halt. August saw a +25% monthly increase with $3.5 billion monthly inflow, the foundation is propped up by institutions—but the trigger for the day's dump was the non-farm payroll itself, don't mistake background accumulation for a protective charm. Futures open interest is 57 billion, a new high since May.
CryptoQuant warns that half of this rebound relies on short covering, and above $83,000 is all crowded resistance.
September 11 CPI, September 15-16 FOMC, two weeks of macro traps. Survive mid-September first, then talk about new stories. #BTCTo judge whether a blockchain is secure, don't first count how many shields it has installed; first count how many doors it leaves open for hackers.
DOGE has been running for over ten years without major vulnerabilities. This is not because its defense layers are thick, but because its attack surface is minimized: no smart contracts, so reentrancy attacks have nowhere to target; no DeFi, so flash loan arbitrage has no ground; no cross-chain bridges, so the scenario of bridges being hacked and assets stolen does not exist for it. Its code is inherited from Bitcoin and Litecoin, with functionality limited to transfers, each line exposed to the public for over a decade, and merged mining with Litecoin thickens the hash power barrier along with the older chain.
During the same period, the industry's theft list has been growing: cross-chain bridges losing hundreds of millions of dollars in single incidents, protocols drained of funds due to a single function flaw. Each additional layer of functionality adds another attack entry point.
In an industry where everyone chases features, $DOGE's "backwardness" has become a firewall. Minimizing the attack surface is the first lesson in security engineering, yet many projects only learn it after paying the tuition. Simplicity is not stagnation; it is a design that keeps risks outside the door. Funds are starting to differentiate again between "institutional buying" and "real industrial demand"!
$BTC is still tugging below $80,000, with strong non-farm payrolls raising interest rate expectations, but the spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million in a single day. One factor suppresses valuation, the other accumulates chips, so BTC currently looks more like a tug-of-war between macro funds and institutional allocation. Next week's CPI will be the next real directional choice.
$ETH is actually stronger than expected this round. The latest statistics show a net inflow of about $824 million into spot ETH ETFs over a week, indicating institutional demand hasn't directly retreated due to rising rate expectations. The biggest focus for ETH now is whether ETFs, staking, and corporate holdings can continue to lock up supply.
$BICO remains around $0.021, down about 14% over 7 days, with previous exchange liquidity incentives basically digested. Having volume without price is not good; to revalue later, it must rely on account abstraction and infrastructure business to bring back real users.
$OKB continues to look toward X Layer application realization; $QQQ is now most worried about further rate hikes; $SNDK rose another 11.9% on Friday, with AI storage plus index inclusion jointly boosting valuation; $SKHYNIX still holds 50% of HBM share, but Samsung has caught up to 33%. AI memory demand remains strong, and the next battle is who profits more! Let's believe in storage together!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #Anthropic Impact on $2 Trillion IPO Valuation
Latest Data
Claude's parent company Anthropic plans to complete its listing between October and November, with the market assigning a target valuation of $2 trillion, potentially setting a record for the largest IPO in history. The IPO timing has been slightly delayed recently, and a $15 billion credit line is being finalized. The company's annualized revenue is growing rapidly, but the $2 trillion valuation is only the primary market institutions' expectation and has not yet been priced by the secondary market. The market price of $BTC is 81000, and the AI computing power narrative has slightly boosted market risk appetite.
Market Consensus
The bullish side believes that AI commercialization is progressing faster than expected, the large model sector has a very high ceiling, and the high valuation is supported by growth logic; the cautious camp bluntly states that the valuation bubble is obvious, and the $2 trillion is based on idealized market assumptions. If performance falls short of expectations, the valuation will face a significant correction.
Underlying Logic Analysis
This is an optimistic expectation from the primary market and does not equal the final listing price. The hot AI sector will indirectly improve overall risk asset sentiment but will only transmit sentiment to the crypto market without directly changing the long-term trend of $BTC. The core of the market still depends on U.S. Treasury bonds and inflation data.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Focus on observing what pricing the secondary market assigns after listing. Do not be blindly bullish driven by exaggerated primary market narratives; maintain rational position sizing. On September 3rd, the total holdings of $ETH spot ETFs rose to 6,290,789.93 ETH, with a net increase of 62,835.71 ETH on the day, fully recovering the net outflow of 35,811.96 ETH on September 2nd, and even adding about 27,000 ETH more.
So far this week, the cumulative net increase is 86,846.24 ETH; over the past 7 trading days, the cumulative net increase is 269,079.75 ETH; and since September began, the cumulative increase is 34,848.90 ETH. Looking solely at the recovery speed, ETH is clearly stronger than BTC. After a significant pullback the previous day, it completed a rebound the next day with an even larger net inflow, indicating that the capital allocation willingness toward ETH remains relatively strong.
Therefore, ETH's current status is that the direction remains very strong, and capital continues to add positions, but it increasingly relies on leading products to drive momentum. The benefit is that since 2026, ETH spot ETFs have cumulatively increased by 175,322.35 ETH, significantly stronger than BTC. What needs to be observed is whether this concentrated inflow can be sustained going forward.The latest U.S. Department of Labor nonfarm payroll report for August 2026 significantly exceeded market expectations, directly reversing the previous market's betting logic on the Federal Reserve's easing path and triggering collective fluctuations across global major asset classes.
This report shows an increase of 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, nearly three times the market consensus of 55,000, marking the highest monthly increase since March this year; the unemployment rate remained low at 4.1%, and wage growth year-over-year stabilized at 3.1%, showing no signs of overheating. More impactful was the revision of previous data: the initial July nonfarm figure, previously negative, was directly revised up to +21,000, combined with simultaneous upward revisions for June data, completely disproving the market's prior concerns about rapid cooling in employment. The resilience of the U.S. labor market far exceeded overall market expectations.
Following the data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September quickly rose, shutting down the previously anticipated easing and rate cut window. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, with rising risk-free rates directly exerting strong negative pressure on risk assets.
Due to the previously weak ADP small nonfarm data, the market had almost unanimously bet on a "weak data, loose monetary policy" easing scenario, with many high-position long orders laid out in advance. This major nonfarm report directly reversed macro expectations, representing a typical expectation gap sell-off. The cryptocurrency market saw a short-term volume-driven decline, with $BTC directly breaking below the 80,000 integer mark, and $ETH quickly losing the critical 2,500 support. The concentration of long positions piled up at high levels triggered stop-losses, and a chain of liquidations further amplified the decline; gold simultaneously plunged over $100, completely erasing the previously accumulated safe-haven premium, with the entire market weakening.Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund "Abandons U.S. Treasuries, Buys Agency MBS": A Sophisticated Hedge on Dollar Credit, Spreads, and Political Risk
According to the latest news, Norway's Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) plans to reduce its exposure to U.S. Treasuries by about $80 billion and instead increase holdings of agency MBS (mortgage-backed securities) guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, managing assets exceeding $1.7 trillion, every adjustment in its asset allocation is not just an internal decision but a barometer of global capital flows. This move to "abandon U.S. Treasuries and buy MBS" reveals deep concerns by the Norwegians about U.S. fiscal credit, interest rate trajectories, and political risks.
1. First Concern: The "Risk-Free Premium" of U.S. Treasuries Is Being Repriced
Traditionally, U.S. Treasuries have been viewed by global capital as a "zero-risk" safe haven. However, recent debt ceiling dramas, uncontrolled fiscal deficits, and downgrades of U.S. credit ratings have gradually eroded this belief. One of the concerns of Norway's sovereign fund is that U.S. Treasuries are shifting from "risk-free assets" to "risky assets."
The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments consuming an increasing share of fiscal revenue. Market worries about the sustainability of U.S. debt are no longer academic but reflected in the continuous rise in yields. Norway's fund reducing $80 billion in U.S. Treasury exposure essentially casts a vote of no confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline. They are not bearish on the U.S. economy but fundamentally question the old narrative of "U.S. Treasuries as the ultimate safe asset."
2. Second Concern: Interest Rate Risk and Duration Management
U.S. Treasury yields are at their highest since January 2025, and the upward trend has not clearly ended. For institutions holding large amounts of long-duration Treasuries, every basis point increase in yield results in actual losses on the asset side. As a long-term investor, Norway's fund can hold to maturity to avoid some price volatility, but the opportunity cost remains significant.
Shifting to agency MBS is an active adjustment of interest rate risk structure. Although agency MBS are also affected by the interest rate environment, their yield characteristics differ from Treasuries: with stable prepayment speeds, MBS offer higher coupon yields and shorter weighted average durations. At high yield levels, MBS convexity risk is relatively controllable, and price sensitivity to interest rates is lower than that of long-duration Treasuries. Norway's fund exchanging Treasuries for MBS is equivalent to swapping "lower duration + higher coupon" for "high duration + low coupon," a defensive layout anticipating possible further yield increases.
3. Third Concern: Long-Term Worries About Dollar Credit and the Need for Asset Diversification
Norway's sovereign fund has grown so large that it cannot ignore the credit risk of any single sovereign nation. It previously held large amounts of U.S. Treasuries partly because of the lack of sufficiently deep and liquid alternative assets globally. But now, the proportion of U.S. Treasuries in its fixed income portfolio is too high, and concentration risk is drawing internal attention.
More importantly, the dollar's reserve currency status is being eroded by geopolitical acceleration. After the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. weaponization of the dollar has led sovereign funds worldwide to reassess the tail risks of dollar assets. Although Norway is a U.S. ally, its sovereign wealth fund must be responsible for asset safety over the coming decades. Reducing U.S. Treasuries is not a shift toward the euro or yen but toward agency MBS, which are still implicitly guaranteed by the U.S. government, offer higher yields, and are more closely tied to the real economy. This is a carefully designed risk diversification—retaining exposure to the dollar asset system while reducing overreliance on direct Treasury credit.
4. Fourth Concern: The "Relative Resilience" of the U.S. Housing Market
Agency MBS are backed by U.S. residential mortgages and guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with default risk nearly equivalent to U.S. Treasuries. Unlike Treasuries, MBS value is anchored in the repayment ability of U.S. residents and the housing market. Given the current resilience in the labor market and relatively healthy household balance sheets, the credit risk of agency MBS is controllable.
Norway's fund choosing to increase MBS holdings at this time implies a judgment that the stability of the U.S. housing market is superior to the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. In other words, they trust American homeowners more than U.S. fiscal policy. This is a very sharp signal—when the world's largest sovereign fund starts voting with its feet, shifting assets from "national promises" to "people's mortgages," the credit halo of U.S. Treasuries is indeed fading.
5. Market Implications: Patience and Vigilance of Followers
Norway's sovereign fund's move is likely not a one-off but the beginning of a gradual adjustment. The $80 billion reduction is incremental and exploratory relative to its overall U.S. Treasury holdings. This "moderate withdrawal" signals to the market that demand for U.S. Treasuries is structurally loosening, but the process will be slower than imagined.
For global investors, Norway's shift reminds us to focus on several core questions: Is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields triggering further official demand reduction? Will other sovereign funds follow suit? Does the agency MBS market have enough depth to absorb these funds? These questions will be among the most important variables to watch in the global fixed income market in the coming quarters.
Norway's calmness is a microcosm of the exhaustion of patience with U.S. fiscal policy
Norway's sovereign wealth fund is not a political animal; its decisions are based on long-term capital returns and risk control. This reduction in U.S. Treasuries and shift to agency MBS is not impulsive but a well-considered statement: America's houses are more reassuring than America's ledgers. When the world's largest "smart money" begins to reassess the definition of risk-free assets, the market might seriously consider where the real risks needing hedging truly lie. 🔥 CORE的漏洞：自己人搞自己人 9月初，Core DAO的部分验证节点利用奖励机制漏洞，超额领取了大量CORE奖励。项目方紧急硬分叉修复，5家交易所暂停充提，7天内CORE暴跌19.5%，跌到0.0205美元。 硬分叉后销毁了1.5亿枚CORE，但价格只象征性反弹了4%——现在还在0.02附近趴着。 核心问题：项目方连自己的验证节点都管不住。 超额奖励发了多少、发了多久、有没有代币流入市场——至今没有披露。一个连内部治理都出问题的项目，市场凭什么相信它的未来？ 🔥 ZEC的漏洞：外部攻击，而且修复得足够透明 2026年6月，安全研究员在Zcash的Orchard隐私池中发现了一个潜伏4年的漏洞——理论上可无限伪造ZEC。消息一出，ZEC从600多美元暴跌50% 至250美元。 但Zcash团队的反应完全不同：5天完成修复，主动推出Ironwood提案让用户能独立验证总供应量是否被篡改，公开承认“无法100%确认漏洞是否被利用过”。坦诚比遮掩更有力量。 更重要的是，Zcash有更大的剧本在撑腰——8月25日，灰度正式推出美国首只Zcash现货ETF ，上线以来净流入超3400万美#BTC to gold ratio rises to the highest level since January, can the strength continue?
1 $BTC can now be exchanged for more than 1 jin of gold
$BTC has truly become digital gold
Watching $80,000 every day to see if it rises, let's look at another reference point: BTC has actually been quite impressive recently.
On September 4th, the BTC to gold ratio rose to 18.17, reaching the highest level since January this year. In other words, one BTC could then be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold.
The key is, gold itself hasn't been idle lately and has been rising continuously. BTC still outpacing gold shows that this round of relative strength has indeed emerged.
But here’s a pitfall: BTC outperforming gold doesn’t necessarily mean funds have flowed from gold to BTC. This ratio only shows which one is rising faster; it cannot directly prove where the money is going.
What really catches my attention is the upcoming correction.
When rising, $BTC is stronger than gold—this story has been heard many times. The real test of "digital gold" is when the market starts to fall and interest rates put pressure again, whether BTC can also resist the decline better than gold.
After all, if both assets fall together, as long as gold falls more, the BTC to gold ratio can still hit new highs.
So this ratio breakout, I will take it as a plus for BTC’s strength, but it’s not yet time to be completely confident.
The rise proves it has offensive power; the correction will reveal whether it has defensive capability.
Going forward, what I want to see is not whether BTC can keep surging, but whether it can fall less during the next major market downturn.
#Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are needed, September probability rises to 58.6%
#BTC to gold ratio rises to the highest level since January, can the strength continue?