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$SPCX surged 6.42% the day before to $149.74, yesterday it even touched $150.85 at the highest, but finally returned to around $149. There is clearly divergence starting around $150.
My current judgment on SPCX hasn't changed much.
SpaceX has strong fundamentals, but what really needs attention in the short term is the next round of stock unlocking on September 9th. The market has already started trading ahead of this date.
So I don't think there's a need to rush around $150.
If sentiment continues to push SPCX to around $166 later, that level is actually more worth watching.
Watch and wait around $150 first, then consider direction near $166. The risk-reward ratio will be much more comfortable.
$SPCX Strategy's Bitcoin approach is shifting from "buy and hold" to active treasury management. This summer, the company sold approximately 6,916 BTC in total, cashing out funds mainly to replenish USD reserves, pay dividends and interest, and repurchase securities, indicating that Bitcoin has begun to play a role in liquidity allocation within the capital structure.
However, after replenishing cash flow, the company quickly repurchased 4,603 BTC. This flexible "selling and buying" operation shows that it has not abandoned crypto assets but is moving toward a treasury management logic more typical of traditional enterprises.
Despite the strategic adjustments, Strategy still holds over 845,000 BTC, maintaining its position as the largest publicly listed company Bitcoin holder globally. Against the backdrop of spot ETF adoption and premium decline, it is enhancing asset efficiency through more complex capital operations, enabling Bitcoin to flow bidirectionally between accumulation and liquidation. $BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Nonfarm Payrolls Bearish for Gold
Last night, the nonfarm payrolls data was clearly bearish.
US August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 55% to 65%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged again. Gold then dropped to around $4420.
But I won’t turn bearish on gold just because of one nonfarm report.
The current issue is that rate cut expectations have been dashed, and rate hike expectations are heating up again. The next key event is the CPI on September 11.
I already bought near 4300 before; here I won’t chase the rally, nor will I panic over a one-day pullback.
What gold really needs to guard against is CPI continuing to surge, not this single nonfarm report.
$XAU $XAUT $BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ ZEC breaks 1,000, privacy coins collectively surge—how far can this wave go?
ZEC has surged past $1,000, pushing its market cap into the top ten. DASH is up 17%, ZEN up 15%, and the privacy sector saw $5 billion in trading volume in one day, with funds circling like sharks smelling blood.
ZEC's real trump card is the Grayscale ETF—launching on August 25, with holdings already exceeding 420,000 coins and assets surpassing $400 million. The SEC investigation has ended, removing regulatory shadows. On-chain shielded transactions account for 90%, with 4.2 million ZEC locked in privacy pools, supply shrinking while demand expands. Grayscale estimates: if ZEC reaches 2%, 5%, or 10% of BTC's market cap, the corresponding prices would be $1,622, $4,054, and $8,109 respectively.
But ZEC is not ETH. ETH is a smart contract empire with $45 billion TVL; ZEC is merely a privacy payment tool with no on-chain ecosystem, and its market cap is less than 7% of ETH's. This rally is a "privacy narrative" revaluation, not an "ETH alternative."
DASH and ZEN are more of a catch-up rally. DASH lacks fundamental catalysts, with RSI at 76 nearing overbought; ZEN's rise is inflated by Grayscale valuation adjustments, futures volume is five times spot, indicating unstable holdings.
Short-term overbought conditions are severe, with $36.6 million in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. The $1,200–$1,300 range is the first barrier, $700–$800 is the lifeline. ZEC has the hard logic of an ETF backing it, and the privacy narrative is a long-term story, but chasing highs in the short term risks getting trapped!
$ZEC $DASH $ZEN $TRUMP Don't chase it, don't look at its rise today, it's purely a scam to lure people in and harvest.
Its fundamentals are terrible, it's just an emotional coin, an air coin. Let me break it down for you in detail:
1. It's a perpetual money printer. Unlike other tokens that unlock completely in a year, TRUMP is designed to release 909,000 tokens linearly into circulation every day, nonstop.
That's why it has small drops every 7 days, big drops every 30 days, it can drop 50% and then drop another 50%, its decline has no end.
2. The banquet trap hasn't been filled yet. Two White House banquets trapped 220 big holders, except for 35 who escaped quickly, the rest are all stuck, and many still haven't sold.
This "narrative pump + scam to pass the bag + slow bleed cut loss" tactic is too obvious, it's TRUMP's fatal internal flaw, it can't be pumped up to let them break even.
3. The truly scary competitor is its sibling $WLFI. WLFI is the real bet of the Trump family—USD1 stablecoin with a market cap of 4 billion, ranked in the top ten stablecoins.
Even the coins promoted by the Trump family have dropped 80%, indicating the market has discounted Trump's credibility: no matter what you launch, there's an inherent 80% expected drawdown.
Moreover, even if funds speculate on Trump, they will prefer WLFI, leaving only some overflow funds for TRUMP, which is too little to pump it up.I don't think the Federal Reserve will really raise interest rates in September.
The current rate hike expectations seem more like a temporary boost caused by strong non-farm payrolls and hawkish statements.
Just now, a Federal Reserve official came out calling for a rate hike:
Inflation is too high, policy isn't tight enough, action should continue.
The market immediately panicked, and the probability of a September rate hike surged back to 58.6%.
But the problem is that employment looks strong, wages have already started to cool down, and real wage growth has even turned negative.
The Federal Reserve is not facing a simple choice right now.
Raising rates risks further cooling the economy.
Not raising rates risks inflation picking up again.
That's why I think: the real determinant of September's policy is not what any official says today, but the CPI on September 11.
If the CPI is below expectations, rate hike expectations will quickly cool down, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may fall back, and BTC might actually see an opportunity.
Conversely, if the CPI again exceeds expectations, then caution is needed.
So I don't recommend shorting $BTC now.
Wait for the CPI to give the answer; if inflation is not strong, this rate hike panic might actually become a chance to buy at a low point.
The market likes to scare you first, then tell you the real answer.
This time, wait for the CPI. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Zcash has surged above $1000 this round.
On September 4th, ZEC's single-day increase nearly reached 20%, soaring from around $828 to a high of $1023, with its market cap approaching $17 billion. Meanwhile, about $34.5 million worth of ZEC short positions were forcibly liquidated.
But this rally is not just about short squeezes.
At the end of August, Grayscale's spot ZEC ETF—ZCSH—began trading on NYSE Arca, allowing traditional accounts to directly gain spot exposure to ZEC.
These two factors combined make things very interesting.
The ETF opens the capital inflow.
Short liquidations accelerate the price movement.
So a coin that originally didn't have a particularly large market cap can easily exhibit price elasticity far beyond its fundamentals.
And the privacy narrative is also returning to the market's spotlight.
But what I want to see more is:
After the novelty of the ETF fades and most shorts have been cleared out, can ZEC continue to rise based on real demand?
If it can, then the narrative has truly returned.
Otherwise, it might just be leverage helping it run through the rally ahead of time.
$ZEC *Totally agree. $CORE is now entering the 'Show me, don’t tell me' phase*
September 7 is approaching, what the community wants is not a PPT, but on-chain data
*The current top 3 question marks*
1. *Deposits and withdrawals*: `deposits and withdrawals remain a major concern`
Bridge/deposit-withdrawal closed = funds can neither come in nor go out. Confidence is directly locked down
2. *150M token burn*: Was it burned? Where is the tx hash? Has the total supply address changed?
`where’s the on-chain proof` This sentence is key. No tx means no burn
3. *48-hour upgrade delay*: First incident + first delay, the community can still tolerate
Second delay = question mark on the "team’s execution ability"
`Announcements aren’t enough anymore` Hits the nail on the head
*$CORE’s current homework*
**What** **Why**
**Clear timeline** What time on September 7? How long is the delay? Give a UTC time, don’t be vague
**Verifiable data** Burn address, buyback wallet, multisig changes, audit report links
**Execution** Reopen deposits and withdrawals + network runs stably for 72 hours without downtime
*In one sentence*
Crisis management has two steps: first stop the bleeding, second rebuild1740 SanDisk is already severely overbought, priced based on the expectation of "EPS reaching over $200 by 2027". (AI inference, KV cache, NBM long-term contracts) — EPS only reaches 135, corresponding to a fair price of 1350.
KDJ's J value is 103.65, RSI6 is 78.9, both severely overbought.
Current price is 13.7% above the 20-day moving average, with moving averages extremely divergent.
92% of chips are in profit (the most dangerous structure), average cost is 1544, current price is 11% higher.
Only about 11% of chips are above 1740 (the vacuum zone means no support to hold).
History has already shown: July 10 high at 1946 → July 29 low at 998, a 48.7% drop in 19 trading days.
Evidence and hard data (289x PE, 25.2x PB, institutional positions reduced to zero, Fidelity cashed out 18.2 billion).
The market generally expects NAND prices to sharply decline after fiscal year 2027. 25x PB has no net asset backing, relying entirely on future profits.
The current price of 1740 implies: net profit must increase 12.6 times (from 892 million to 11.2 billion) for PE to return to 22.94.
So the question is not "expensive or not," but "whether that 12.6 times growth can be realized." The suspense over a Fed rate hike in September has sharply increased! SanDisk soars 11%, Chinese assets rise against the trend, gold and silver both plunge—what exactly is the market afraid of?
On what seemed like an ordinary Friday night, the global capital markets staged a textbook case of "fire and ice." The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, Tesla lost about $100 billion in market value overnight, gold and silver fell in tandem, and Bitcoin dropped below the $80,000 mark. Meanwhile, SanDisk surged over 11%, SK Hynix and Micron Technology rallied strongly, Baidu rose over 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 3.37% against the trend. The same market showed two completely different faces, behind which lies a fierce monetary policy debate triggered by the August nonfarm payroll data.
On September 4, U.S. Eastern Time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics made Wall Street collectively take a sharp breath: seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000; the previous figure was revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000; June data was also revised upward to 31,000, totaling 55,000 more jobs over two months. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month. Caixin cited analysts pointing out that this was the strongest monthly employment growth since March this year, with the six-month average hiring pace reaching its highest level in over two years.
Once the data was released, the market quickly repriced. Federal funds futures showed the probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from about 50% before the data release to over 60%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, most sensitive to interest rates, rose 5 basis points to 4.38%. Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote bluntly that the strong August employment data cleared a key obstacle for a September rate hike; the core argument against tightening policy—that the labor market lacked growth momentum—no longer exists.
The story is not one-sided. Just the day before, Fed Governor Waller had just sent dovish signals, which Timiraos interpreted as a clear reaction function: if inflation continues moving toward the 2% target, the Fed will hold steady; if August CPI improvement proves fleeting, raising policy rates is the appropriate choice. BMO strategist Vail Hartman’s judgment is representative: this report supports the hawks but is not decisive enough to confirm a rate hike on September 16; employment data still carries less weight than inflation. Citibank’s move is even more intriguing, pushing back rate cut expectations sharply to June, September, and December 2027—delayed by more than half a year compared to previous forecasts.
Capital’s instincts are always more honest than words. While the broader market was suffocating under the "rate hike trade," the AI hardware sector was fighting a completely independent battle. Storage giants went on a rampage: SanDisk closed up 11.9%, SK Hynix up 8.14%, Micron up 6.1%, Kioxia ADR up 10.41%, Western Digital and Seagate both up over 5%; in the optical communications sector, Mycronic rose 7%, Coherent 6%, Corning 5.7%; semiconductor equipment maker Aehr Test Systems surged 13.1%. Wallstreetcn’s analysis was spot on: the market was running two trades simultaneously that day—one macro "rate hike trade" and one industry "AI trade."
The underlying logic of the storage rally is not emotional speculation. CFM flash market data shows that the global DRAM market size reached $147.024 billion in Q2 2026, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 55.9%, hitting a record high; JPMorgan even raised its 2028 global storage market size forecast to $1.82 trillion. Training a large model with hundreds of billions of parameters requires petabyte-scale storage arrays; computing power is instant consumption, storage is permanent accumulation. Every step AI advances increases its appetite for storage. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and other institutions generally predict the supply-demand gap will continue beyond 2027, and this super cycle may last longer than any previous one.
On the Pacific side, Chinese concept stocks also performed brilliantly. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.89%, Kingsoft Cloud and Baidu rose over 4%, Bawang Tea, Li Auto, and Xiaomi ADRs rose over 2%, while NetEase, JD.com, and Tencent ADRs also gained more than 1%. Gold prices could not withstand the impact of strong employment data; spot gold fell 0.94% to $4,429.07/oz, spot silver dropped 1.18% to $66.17/oz. Funds quietly flowed out of precious metals and into the AI hardware sector. International oil prices rose against the trend, with WTI closing at $91.48 and Brent at $95.93. On Friday, Trump again urged Fed Chair Powell on social media to "be smart and cut rates quickly," but the market voted with real money in the opposite direction.
The countdown to the September 15-16 FOMC meeting has begun. The August CPI data released next Friday will play the true "judge" role. Strong nonfarm payrolls give hawks confidence, but CPI is the key to deciding whether a rate hike will happen. On one side is the "rate hike trade," on the other the "AI trade." The U.S. stock market is telling global investors in the most straightforward way: macro clouds cannot block the light of industry; storage has transformed from a marginal part of the supply chain into a strategic asset of the AI era; valuation logic has been completely reconstructed. Do you understand the next move in this grand game? Share your thoughts in the comments—how many rate hikes do you think will happen in September?
(Disclaimer: The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.) #美联储9月加息你怎么看#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ While $BTC's short-term trend remains volatile and funds begin seeking new growth narratives, Hyperliquid's ecosystem activity and market attention remain catalytic factors worth watching. If market risk appetite recovers and funds flow back into high-beta altcoins, $HYPE may have the chance to show relatively stronger performance. However, what matters more now is not chasing rallies, but waiting for further confirmation of trading volume, price structure, and capital flows. Patiently waiting for signals is more important than blindly chasing highs 👀📊 #HYPE #BTC #CryptoThe overnight market once again staged a classic "attract bulls first, then harvest" scenario. 📉 Bitcoin was first quickly pushed up, forcing short sellers to stop losses, then nonfarm payrolls came out, causing a sudden reversal and concentrated liquidation of long positions, wiping out nearly $200 million in a short period. In August, nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000, a strong performance that has indeed fueled expectations for a rate hike again. But it is still too early to conclude the Fed will act immediately based solely on a month's employment figures—don't forget, Waller's stance is clear: what he is really focused on is the August CPI, which is the key variable that will determine the next step. Back to the market, Bitcoin pulled back after touching 82,100, and the competition near the 80,000 round number is fierce. 79,000 is key support in the short term; if it holds, there is still a chance to test 81,000 again; If it falls, the lower level should be 77,500. I am reluctant to short at this level and prefer to observe the effectiveness of support. Ethereum's relative strength should be watched at the 2,500 line; after holding, it is expected to gradually move toward 2,550 to 2,600; if it falls below 2,450, it may pull back near 2,400. Both capital and narrative are more relaxed than before; I will keep an eye on the pullback. Solana is more volatile; 110 to 115 is immediate support; holding it is the chance to rebound to the 120 to 125 range. Once it breaks through, it is not advisable to hold forcefully. The non-farm payroll is just a shakeout; the CPI on September 11 is the real touchstone. My choice is to continue holding*$CORE This round of token burn is a temporary fix; trust is the fundamental cure 🔥*
You hit the nail on the head. Burning 150M is just the first step
*Let's start with the positives*
1. *Fast stop-loss*: No rollback, user funds reportedly safe, the excess tokens are directly burned
2. *Right attitude*: Problems are addressed openly, no cover-ups. Better than playing dead
This operation has temporarily suppressed the "inflation risk." In the short term, it's bullish
*But your question is the core*
`how did the issue get this far before being detected?`
This is the Achilles' heel of all L1/L2
- *Where was the audit?* Was there third-party auditing on the issuance mechanism/contract permissions
- *Where was the monitoring?* 150M excess issuance is not a small amount, how was there no on-chain alert
- *Where was the process?* Who has minting permissions? Are multisigs sufficient?
`fixing the problem` anyone can do. `making sure it doesn’t happen again` is what matters
*$CORE needs to prove three things next*
1. *Transparency*: Incident report + root cause analysis + full disclosure of the fix plan
2. *Mechanism*: Tightened permissions, multisig upgrades, real-time monitoring, bounty program
3. *Time*: No new incidents in the next 3-6 months, A summary of my recent trading: from 1300 yuan on May 29, I increased 55 times in 7 days to about 70,000 yuan. By the end of August, I lost again. The improvement this time was that it lasted for 2 months, then on September 1 it was 170 USD, and on September 4th, it reached a high of 10 times during trading at 1800 USD, then I lost again. I actually know my own problems, my understanding is basically in place, and I have achieved enlightenment. But execution and mindset are always problematic. For example, 1. Can't wait, the trading system signals haven't appeared, and the target is being traded just to open a trade. 2. Greed and fear. Yesterday I had a long position on Ethereum, with principal reaching $1,500. I opened 35 orders with an average opening price of 2,397. During the session, I fluctuated from unrealized gains to floating losses. I was afraid of inserting a pin to break my stop-loss. After calculating, I only had a little over $400 left. Afraid of losing money, I took a small stop-loss and left. But before the 8:30 non-farm payroll data came out, I actually reached my take-profit level, planned to make a profit of $40, and then my principal could have reached $3,000. This is fear. Fear comes from being too afraid of losing—if you lose, there's no backup plan. Greed also exists. After taking profit on useless long orders, the short structure is very clear: you open a short position, but with a principal of $500, you made up to $1,500. But when you see a support level and don't take profit, you bet it will fall below it. In the end, you don't make money and leave, and it seems to have a small loss. This$BTC has been moving sideways, but the macro backdrop just got tougher. 👀 🇺🇸 August jobs came in at 162K vs ~56K expected, pushing expectations for a September Fed hike higher. If the Fed stays hawkish: 📈 Yields could rise 💵 Dollar could strengthen 📉 Risk assets could face more pressure I’m not calling for a crash. But right now, BTC needs to prove it can hold support while macro pressure is rising. Next big catalyst: US CPI. 👀 Are we setting up for a breakdown or another BTC squeeze? #BT$BTC BTC $79,618, down 1.5%. 24h range $78,628-$81,395.
Non-farm payrolls exploded. 162,000 jobs vs expected 53,000, triple the forecast. Rate hike probability surged to 62%, BTC dropped straight from $82K+ through $80K.
But this is not a trend reversal. ETF net inflow was $731 million in one day, BlackRock alone took $454 million, the largest this year. All moving averages are well supporting above $75K, RSI at 66 is healthy, CMF 0.31 still accumulating. Aroon Up 92%, trend intact.
$79,000 is the lifeline. Hold it and wait for 9/11 CPI and 9/15 FOMC, if lost, it will return to $77K-$78K.
**Short-term bias is bullish, $79,618.** Support at $79,000→$78,500→$78,000→$77,000, resistance at $79,920→$80,500→$81,500→$82,278.
A bounce off $79,000 without breaking is a buy point. The non-farm drop is a pit, not a top; ETF money is real cash, not a short-covering bubble.Major catalyst landing! SanDisk included in the S&P 100, combined with the CPI window period, can it challenge 2000?
Officially announced on September 5, SanDisk $SNDK will be included in the S&P 100 index, effective September 22. Being added to a top broad-based index means a massive amount of passive ETFs and index funds tracking the S&P 100 must complete their allocation purchases. This certain buying demand is a crucial positive support in the coming period.
But one thing must be clear: index inclusion ≠ continuous one-way rise.
The common market path is usually: news triggers early buying and pre-rally → funds concentrate positions near the effective date → on the execution day, buying lands and the positive is realized, but often profit-taking pressure emerges, which is the so-called "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
What truly determines whether this wave can become a big rally is next week's CPI, the macro decisive factor.
If CPI is below 3.4%, inflation cooling expectations rise, the market will lower Fed rate hike bets, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will come under pressure, and U.S. growth stocks, storage sectors, and crypto assets will simultaneously see valuation recovery, representing a cross-market comprehensive positive.
From SanDisk's own perspective, 1835 is a key technical level. If macro and index funds resonate and hold above this level, there is a chance to start wave 4 upward to test the 2000 mark.
Conversely, two risks cannot be ignored:
1. CPI higher than expected, inflation stickiness repriced, rate hike expectations rise, even with the positive of S&P inclusion, it can easily be suppressed by macro negatives, offsetting the positive;
2. Funds have already rushed in early; if the index inclusion expectation is fully priced in short-term, when the execution date of September 22 arrives, a pullback from the positive being fully realized is likely.
Short-term strategy should not blindly chase highs:
✅ Prioritize watching CPI data results to determine the macro environment direction;
✅ Focus on the strength of the breakout around 1835; only if it holds can the 2000 target be considered;
✅ The closer to the September 22 effective date, the more cautious one should be of realization selling pressure; avoid heavy positions at highs gambling on the last leg.
#闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 #AnthropicImpactOn2TrillionUSDIPOValuation
The AI community is about to explode again.
Anthropic, this AI giant, is aiming for a $2 trillion valuation.
Why dare to claim $2 trillion?
Annualized revenue has already surpassed $65 billion, compared to only $9 billion at the end of 2025, a sevenfold increase in just over half a year. At the same time, it is close to finalizing a $15 billion pre-IPO credit line and has signed a $45 billion computing power agreement. The revenue growth is truly fierce, and the cash burn is equally intense.
The impact on the crypto world is threefold.
First, liquidity will be drained. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together are targeting trillions, and crypto, as a highly volatile asset, will find it hard to attract big money until the AI IPO frenzy ends.
Second, the narrative will follow. If Anthropic really goes public at $2 trillion, the ceiling for the entire AI sector will be raised, and the valuation logic for AI projects in crypto with real business support will also be lifted. Conversely, if valuation overreach causes the market to doubt AI’s profitability, crypto won’t escape the fallout.
Third, computing power itself is being repriced. With $65 billion in annualized revenue and a $2 trillion valuation, Wall Street’s pricing of computing power has far surpassed any traditional industry. When computing power itself becomes an asset that can be priced, financed, and securitized, Bitcoin, as the most primitive expression of computing power, will only see its long-term ceiling raised.
In the short term, it’s a liquidity drain; in the long term, it’s about pricing computing power.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ZEC Honestly, I’m not very keen on discussing this, but since everyone is interested, I’ll share my views.
Currently, most of the shorts are suffering; after all, it has risen so much, and panic has indeed started.
Let me first give you an overview of the market cap. The current market cap is 17.1 billion USD. In my personal opinion, ZEC is just a slightly higher market cap altcoin for now, so I won’t go into why it’s rising. The news we all see is basically the same points.
Let’s keep it simple and do a horizontal comparison with $DOGE, the Dog King.
First, market cap: ZEC at 17.1 billion, DOGE at 13.3 billion. Next, ETFs: ZEC (1), DOGE (4).
Of course, everyone should know that the expectation of ETFs plays a very big role in this rally, as reflected in various news.
Back to my personal view, if you’re shorting $ZEC, you need to be mentally prepared that it might surge dramatically. Can you keep up? Is your position well controlled? Is your expectation big enough?
Like me, I’m also shorting ZEC, but my target is around 1450, so I can accept the current price. Some smart people say, "You see 1450 but don’t go long, instead you short." (There’s too much to say about this.)
Based on past experience, some coins held by Grayscale tend to have explosive pumps and dumps, and when they dump, it really catches you off guard. Whether it can hold at the peak depends on you.
Words aren’t enough, goodbye!Just now, Sister Xue briefly analyzed for everyone: Marscoin, and now let me introduce another one, a Meme coin of the same type in the BNB ecosystem that Sister Xue is personally also following, which is: $USELESS
Currently, Useless has stretched nearly 700% from the bottom and has started high-level oscillation consolidation near the strongest daily resistance around 0.3! From on-chain whales and project-related addresses, cashing out has already begun, but the price, like Marscoin, has been oscillating at a high level very obviously. The dog whale is attracting long positions at the high level to accumulate chips until it's almost enough, so the probability of a dump is very high. Therefore, chasing this kind of Meme coin at a high price has a very unfavorable risk-reward ratio! #英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace *Bro, your calculation here is crucial 👀 $PONS liquidity crisis*
`12m tokens in LP total` = The pool is too thin
*What does this mean?*
1. *Can't even buy 2%*: As long as someone wants to buy, the slippage will explode. When the whales/protocol sweep, the price drops vertically
2. *Selling pressure is also very low*: No liquidity = no one dumping. As long as there's no panic, the price is easily pushed up by the protocol's buy orders
3. *Buy/burn flywheel*: `@ponsdotfamily` protocol keeps buying + burning → circulating supply in LP decreases → harder to buy → price + FDV rise → protocol buys even more
`protocol continuing to buy/burn` in such a thin pool is a nuclear bomb
*Risks & Opportunities*
- *Opportunity*: Truly "low circulation, high demand." Even a slightly larger fund coming in will cause nonlinear price growth
- *Risk*: Liquidity is too thin. Hard to exit, a single needle can kill you. Slippage eats you up
`literally someone can't buy 2%` This sentence is $PONS's current moat + Achilles' heel
*In a nutshell*
This is not a market cap issue, it's a "buyable coin" issue
The protocol is accumulating, the market is waiting to take over. Whoever moves first sets the price *The macro environment is starting to strangle 📉 The killer in $BTC sideways is here*
You nailed the timing. Technically, it's fine now, but the macro side is in trouble.
*Core contradiction*
*Employment data beats expectations → September rate hike probability ↑ → $US Treasury yields ↑ + $USD ↑ → $BTC under pressure*
`#HammackBacksHike` This tag says it all. Fed hawkish = risk assets suffer
`#RobinhoodChainOutflows` + `#NorwaySWFEyes80BUSTCut`
On-chain and sovereign funds are both shrinking. This is not retail FUD, big money is reallocating.
*Market scenario*
$BTC has been sideways for so long, basically waiting for news.
1. *Hawkish confirmation*: $BTC retests $78K – $76K. Altcoins follow down.
2. *Dovish/neutral*: Sideways continues, waiting for $80K breakout.
The market has already priced in some hawkish expectations, which is why it pumped first then dumped last night.
*Trading strategy*
`downside risks are building` Exactly.
1. *Deleverage*: Sideways + macro bearish, easiest to get stopped out.
2. *Wait for confirmation*: Avoid heavy positions before Fed speeches and CPI. Cash is the best position.
3. *Hold the leaders*: If it really drops, $BTC and $ETH will fall less than altcoins. $ETH On-chain data observation of eth
I extended the Ethereum price data and found that currently at 2918, 5.3 billion short positions can be liquidated, while at 1618, 15.966 billion long positions can be liquidated. I don't believe these data manipulator whales can't see this, and this is also the reason why the current eth price is consolidating or even showing signs of decline — because there are too many long positions, the load is too heavy, and a shakeout correction is needed.
Current views are:
1. Strong breakout above 2713, wiping out 2.6 billion short position stop losses, then a pullback before going down again.
2. Direct drop to 2119, wiping out 5.9 billion long position stop losses, then deciding the direction.
Long positions now hold several times the volume of short positions; a batch of long positions must be liquidated to lighten the load, so the manipulator whales can pick up chips. Don't expect the whales to pull you along and share the dream of getting rich together #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Last night throughout the entire US stock market session, I really, really, really felt a bit overwhelmed.
I'm now just waiting for the guys in Europe to wake up.
Once the rate hike expectations came up, crypto took a hit first, and basically all risk assets that were supposed to fall did fall.
Then near the close, Trump suddenly threw out trade war and tariff expectations, pulling the US stock market sentiment back a bit, and SanDisk even surged 11.9% straight up.
So here’s the problem.
Trump’s words can influence sentiment, can influence capital, and can even pull stock prices back by the close.
But he can’t influence the Federal Reserve.
How rate hike expectations will move still depends on inflation, employment, and data; it won’t suddenly change the script just because of a tariff shout.
So I actually feel that this big bullish candle on SanDisk is a bit too lively.
NAND price increases have already started to slow down, consumer price tolerance is nearing its limit, yet the industry chain has already begun betting on capacity for 2028 and 2029.
The story is certainly appealing.
But this kind of "macro negative → Trump shout → late session recovery → SanDisk surge" move last night, I’m not willing to chase for now.
I’ve already entered a short position on SanDisk.
Trump is responsible for creating sentiment; I’m here to see how much of this 11.9% bullish candle remains after the sentiment fades.
$SNDK #闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 $NVDA $xSNDK Good afternoon, BTC hovered around 79,500 for a day. After the stormy non-farm payrolls event, the market is temporarily quiet.
Let's review the non-farm payrolls situation. August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 56,000, a triple beat. The June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000. Before the data release, Waller dove-bombed saying that slowing inflation might support a pause in September, and BTC was pushed directly from 76,000 to above 82,000. But once the data came out, the gap in expectations stunned the bulls, and the price fell back to around 79,000.
Interestingly, the probability of a rate hike surged to 58%, but the price did not continue to collapse, indicating that there are indeed buyers around the 78,500-79,000 level.
No major news over the weekend, most likely it will grind between 78,500 and 80,500. It can't rise much nor fall deeply; both bulls and bears are waiting for next week's CPI.
Next Wednesday is the real highlight. If CPI is below expectations, the rate hike probability might be pushed back to 30%, and BTC has a chance to surge back to 82,000. If CPI exceeds expectations, the rate hike probability will soar above 70%, and 79,000 might not hold.
Rest well over the weekend, don't get trapped by the market moves. Manage your positions well and wait for the CPI release before making moves.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $LIT has already surged close to $4.7, with a significant increase.
Over the past month, LIT has risen steadily from around $2 to above $4, with an August monthly increase exceeding 70%. Its current market cap is about $1.1 billion, and the 24-hour trading volume is at the $150 million level. Even more impressive, the price is nearing its all-time high, and short-term capital is clearly still flowing in.
There is a solid logic behind this rise: Lighter itself is a perpetual contract DEX, with continuously growing platform trading volume, and protocol revenue is used to repurchase and burn LIT. In August, Lighter repurchased approximately 927,800 LIT tokens, while open interest once exceeded $1 billion, and monthly trading volume reached about $39.5 billion.
Another change that cannot be ignored is that the platform co-operated with Robinhood reached a trading volume of about $5 billion in August, with account numbers surpassing 21,000. If this data continues to grow, it will support Lighter’s trading volume and fee income.
However, the $4.7 level is already close to the historical high, which is a completely different position compared to the $2 era. To push higher from this stage, larger trading volume and actual business growth are needed to sustain it; otherwise, high-level volatility or even a quick pullback is quite normal.As of September 5, 2026, the OKX market continues the recent pattern of "clear strength and weakness," but compared to a week ago, new signals of changes in capital flow and price structure have emerged. The gap between mainstream coins and altcoins has further widened, with the market shifting from broad-based rallies to a structured trend. The leading platform coin $BNB remains at a high level, but its upward momentum has somewhat diminished. On the OKX perpetual contract market, BNB is currently trading around 1005 USDT, with the spot price slightly higher near 1012 USDT. The 24-hour increase has narrowed to about 0.85%, not significantly surpassing the spot high of 1010 USDT on August 31. Notably, after a previous surge of 87.93% in contract open interest, there has been a slight decline in the past two days, indicating some leveraged funds are taking profits, and short-term chasing of highs carries risks. The political premium for $TRUMP continues, but cross-market price discrepancies remain sharp. OKX perpetual contracts and spot prices remain highly synchronized, with contract quotes around 2.248 USDT and spot prices at 2.250 USDT, showing a daily increase of about 1.10%. However, the TRUMP/USDC spot price today is about 2.268 USDC, down 3.15% intraday. Although the divergence from USDT-denominated products has narrowed from 8.95% on August 31, it still reflects pricing friction between different stablecoin liquidity pools. Market makers' arbitrage efficiency between USDC and USDT pools has yet to recover, so investors should be aware of cross-coin conversion costs. $XA Why ZEC surged against the trend to break a ten-year high
Last night, the non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, causing a rebound in the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The broader crypto market was generally under pressure, but the privacy coin ZEC showed an independently strong rally, reaching a high of $1046 and holding above $1040, setting a new near ten-year high. Its 30-day gain nearly doubled, defying the trend with an independent bull market.
The core strength of this rally is not just speculative hype but a resonance of multiple capital forces. On August 25, Grayscale's ZCSH ZEC ETF officially launched, fully opening the traditional institutional investment channel. The fund currently manages $415 million with holdings exceeding 420,000 ZEC. Since listing, it has continuously absorbed incremental funds, fundamentally changing ZEC's capital structure.
At the same time, the market experienced a strong short squeeze. When breaking through the $1,000 mark, over $34.5 million in short positions were liquidated, and short covering further propelled price gains. Coupled with the privacy sector's hotspot and trend-following capital clustering, this formed a very strong bullish force.
Currently, ZEC has moved from valuation recovery into a high-volatility momentum trading phase, with a year-to-date increase of over 20 times. The market has accumulated a massive amount of profit-taking positions, sharply increasing risk.
The subsequent trend depends on two key structures: holding above $1,000 with continued ETF net inflows will initiate a new round of price discovery; if it effectively breaks below $1,000 and capital inflows cool down, concentrated exits of high-leverage profit-taking positions will trigger a rapid pullback. The current $1,000 level is the core lifeline for judging ZEC's strength or weakness. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #ZEC Continues to Hit All-Time Highs
$ZEC The hardest part of this market right now might not be those who haven't bought, but those who think $800 is too high, don't dare to chase at $900, and start waiting for a pullback at $1000.
Yet it keeps pushing higher.
ZEC recently surged to around $1050, continuously hitting nearly a decade high. A month ago, it was hovering around $500, now it has almost doubled. The increase over the past 30 days is close to 94%, and the yearly gain exceeds 2300%.
Honestly, this kind of movement can no longer be explained simply by "privacy coin hype."
Since the launch of Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF, there has been at least $34.4 million in net inflows; meanwhile, the privacy narrative has reignited, miner hashrate is coming in, and capital, story, and supply have all converged.
The hardest hit are the shorts.
When $ZEC broke through $1000, about $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, of which $34.5 million were short positions.
This is very typical in crypto.
The more people think "it's too high and must fall," the more shorts open; the more shorts there are, the more the price is pushed up, and forced liquidations turn into buying pressure, ultimately fueling the rally by the shorts themselves.
Going from $500 to $1000 can rely on trend, but pushing above $1000 is all about sentiment, liquidity, and who holds the baton last!! The net assets of the US spot $BTC ETF have exceeded $103 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for more than half. The day before yesterday, there was an inflow of about $730.9 million, setting a new high for the month. Interestingly, this inflow occurred before the employment data was released, after which macro expectations hardened and BTC dropped accordingly.
This indicates that ETFs are no longer just a short-term buying tool; they are becoming the main vehicle for traditional funds to hold BTC. This will change trading times, liquidity, and participant structure, but it will not eliminate macro shocks like the one yesterday. ETFs can only be seen as one side of supply and demand, not as a substitute for price direction.
Another more subtle issue is that the high proportion of IBIT brings concentration risk, because concentrated entry does not mean holders share the same views. The same ETF can simultaneously include long-term allocation, arbitrage, and short-term trading.$ETH once again left those chasing the rally hanging at 2500, currently at 2453.76, down 2.27% in 24 hours, with a high of 2547.10 and a low of 2431. Previously, a 4-hour candlestick closed down from around 2523 to 2452, with volume about 2.9 times that of the previous candle. The following few candles showed reduced volume and sideways movement; I tend to see this as a breather after a sharp drop, with no evidence yet of a reversal.
ETF funds have not turned down together: According to Farside statistics, there was a net inflow of $141.4 million on September 3, and still a net inflow of $25.9 million on the 4th, though the momentum clearly weakened.
Technically, there is also anticipation for the Glamsterdam upgrade, with the official website expecting the mainnet launch in Q4, date undecided. It will help with scaling but cannot defend today's position at 2431.
I will set alerts at 2431 and 2500.
2431 is the recent low; if it breaks and fails to recover promptly, be wary of continued testing of the previous trading zone between 2390–2405. On the upside, first watch 2465; after reclaiming that, look at 2490–2500. Holding above 2500 on the 4-hour chart and retesting it successfully would make the rebound more convincing.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出
Robinhood Chain, this L2 chain, recently hit a new high in on-chain fee revenue. This chain itself has no official native token; Gas consumption uses ETH, and the popular on-chain trading token is PONS, mainly serving as a meme coin launchpad.
The reason for the revenue surge is that a large number of users are playing with meme coins, crazily issuing tokens and trading back and forth, with massive transactions directly driving up the fees.
The outflow of funds is also easy to understand; most are short-term traders who leave immediately after making a profit and do not stay in the chain for long-term participation.
I think this is a false prosperity, with an overall bearish bias. On the surface, trading activity is maxed out, but funds withdraw after profits, with no long-term capital accumulation here. Once the meme hype fades, trading volume will quickly cool down, and the market is likely to see a pullback.
This kind of hype-driven market is not suitable for chasing highs. The rebound area can be an opportunity to set up short positions, but never go all-in blindly; always use stop-losses, as the market can easily spike and shake out positions. $ETH $PONS
Just a personal opinion, not investment advice ⚠️ The real volatility in September may still be ahead.
Currently, I lean towards another scenario:
First a rebound → sentiment heats up → bulls add positions again → then another deep pullback.
The more the market convinces people that "the risk is over," the more cautious we should be about the upcoming correction.
Recently, BTC briefly reclaimed $81K, and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials once boosted risk assets. But strong U.S. employment data has pushed rate hike expectations back up. The FOMC meeting on September 15–16 and the upcoming CPI release could still be key moments for market repricing.
Therefore, I won’t declare September risk-free just because of one rally.
📍 My new observation ranges
🏛️ $BTC → $77K
🛡️ $ZEC → $800
🔷 $ETH → $2,420
🌊 $SOL → $98
⚡ $HYPE → $76
These are potential support zones I’m watching, not guaranteed target prices.
If the market continues to strengthen, I will focus on:
📌 Whether BTC can sustain above $80K
📌 Whether ETF inflows accelerate again
📌 Whether ETH and altcoins can continue to outperform BTC
📌 Whether leverage is starting to build up excessively
📌 Whether buying pressure remains genuine during pullbacks
The real danger is not the market rising, but the rise making everyone forget the risks.
I’d rather miss a rally than lose position control when sentiment is at its hottest.
Let the market build confidence first, then decide if the next move is worth participating in.
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #BTC #ETH #SOL #ZEC #HYPE #CryptoReference Significance of Whale Liquidation Prices
✅ Aspects with Reference Value
1. "Fuel Level" for Short Squeeze Market
- Hyperliquid's largest short liquidation price is at **$1,111-$1,112**, with a nominal value of $43.2 million
- If the price reaches this range, whale short positions will be forcibly liquidated, and short covering will further push the price up, creating a short squeeze
- Historical validation: On September 4th, when ZEC broke $1,000, 3 whales (0xec0/0x9663/0x7b12) were liquidated, and the price subsequently surged to $1,050
2. Clear Mid-term Target Level
- $1,111 is a widely recognized bullish target in the market, attracting attention from many traders
- Approaching this level often triggers emotion-driven buying, amplifying volatility
3. Liquidity Concentration Point
- Whale positions represent a large amount of leveraged funds, causing significant price impact during liquidation
- Of the $34 million liquidated in 24h, 87%-93% were short positions, indicating shorts are still being continuously liquidated
📌 Practical Trading Advice
Currently ZEC is around $1,020, about 9% below $1,111: $ZEC
Summary: Whale liquidation prices have reference value as mid-term targets and potential short squeeze triggers, but they are not definitive price tops or bottoms. The current $1,020 is still far from that level, so focus remains on short-term operations around $990 support and $1,050 resistance.Four days, a complete roller coaster ride back and forth. $BTC $ETH
On September 1, a loss of 8,487; September 2, a gain of 5,157; September 3, a huge profit of 26,638; September 4, a loss of 2,796. Four screenshots pieced together form a complete absurd drama of the crypto market—from fear to greed, from heaven to earth, four days covering what others experience in a year.
On September 4, the market took the word "roller coaster" to the extreme.
At midnight, Bitcoin was still reveling in Waller's dovish remarks. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September, with the probability of a rate hike dropping sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%. Bitcoin once surged past $82,000, hitting a four-month high, while Ethereum simultaneously soared to around $2,530. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow as high as $730 million—the whole market was like it was on steroids.
Then, the nonfarm payroll data came.
US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The market instantly changed face—"strong employment = bad news." Bitcoin plunged from $82,000, dropping nearly 3% to $79,197 at one point; Ethereum plummeted 3.12% within 15 minutes, crashing from $2,530 to $2,435. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with both shorts and longs getting wiped out.
And I happened to be on the long side.
A loss of 2,796 yuan is not much compared to the 26,000 profit over four days. But this loss is different from the 8,487 yuan on September 1—the last time was caught chasing highs, this time caught off guard by the data. Before the nonfarm data release, I did not reduce my position at all, nor did I set a stop loss. If the drop had been a bit sharper, the 26,000 profit could have instantly vanished.
This 2,796 yuan loss woke me up. Over the past four days, I have been on the right side of the market, but this "rightness" was mostly luck—just happened to catch Waller's dovish stance and ETF inflows. But luck won't always be on the same side. The nonfarm data on September 4 taught me a harsh truth: in front of macro data, any technical analysis looks pale. One employment data release was enough to make Bitcoin at $82,000 instantly fall below $80,000.
Four days, from -8K to +26K then to -2.7K, the total account profit and loss is still positive. But more important than the numbers is what these four days taught me: the market is always unpredictable; the only things you can control are position size and discipline. The Federal Reserve meetings on September 15-16 and next week's CPI data could each become the next "nonfarm moment." I will treat this 2,796 yuan loss as another tuition fee—a reminder that in this market, surviving longer is always more important than making quick profits.I am the mid-term intelligence bro. Bro, did you see that?
$BTC to $XAU surged to 18.17 ounces, the fattest since January. One BTC can be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold, even shinier than the old calendar.
What's going on? With global finances in shambles and mountains of debt, funds are hoarding BTC and gold like inseparable brothers. BTC has high elasticity, quickly leaving gold behind by a big margin.
But this "strength" bro first pours cold water: The Fed's probability of a rate hike in September is 58.6%. If they really hike, BTC with high beta will fall first, gold will cough a bit too, and the ratio will likely hover around 18.
Mid-term view — the debt devaluation narrative hasn't collapsed, BTC is not weak relative to gold mid-term; but don't get carried away chasing short-term moves. Wait for the rate hike to land and ETF inflows to be steady. Only when the ratio stabilizes above 17.5 can you smile without delay. Otherwise, it's "gold hasn't moved, BTC just jumped and is catching its breath."
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
$ETH If NVIDIA really brings Hugging Face under its wing, this is not just a simple company acquisition; it's buying the gateway to AI developers.
The value of Hugging Face lies not in its revenue, but in its models, datasets, tools, and developer community. Whoever controls this gateway is closer to becoming the default workspace for the next generation of AI applications. NVIDIA used to sell GPUs and already stood upstream in AI; now reaching into the open-source model community is equivalent to wanting to pave the "model-to-deployment" path into its own expressway.
But this deal's most sensitive point is here. The open-source community fears being monopolized by a single giant. NVIDIA can claim the platform remains open, but what developers truly watch for are whether future resources, optimizations, and distributions will quietly favor their own hardware. The AI world is turning into a battle for the gateway.
#英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace Total OI is rising, and many people directly interpret this as a large-scale long position entry, which is a very common misconception. There are two completely different situations when OI rises.
First: Long positions actively increase, short positions decrease, which is a genuine bullish sentiment;
Second: Both long and short positions open heavily at the same time, increasing positions in both directions, indicating intensified market divergence and mutual competition.
$ZEC: OI surged 11.86%, mostly the second case, with both longs and shorts opening positions, not a pure long attack;
$ENA: OI +7.60%, also an expansion of long-short divergence;
$SOL: OI steadily rises, the proportion of longs gradually increases, representing a relatively healthy position structure;
$DOGE: OI overall volume is not large, no intense two-way competition occurred.
Looking only at the total OI number is meaningless; you need to look at the position structure. OI increases caused by two-way position openings are more of a volatile shakeout, making it difficult to produce a one-sided big market move.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $ZEC's current surge is a "event-driven + short squeeze" riot, not a healthy bull market rising slowly. As long as the shorts are still holding on hard, the price will hardly truly drop. The real turning point will come only after the shorts are completely wiped out.
The day before yesterday it was 830, today 1050. It rose over 200 dollars in three days, doubled in a month, and increased 23 times in a year. In this kind of market, shorts get hung out to dry, and longs are also on edge. Fortunately, we've seen a bit of a pullback these past two days, finally catching a breath.
First, let's look at how crazy the data is. Since the launch of the Grayscale Zcash spot ETF, the cumulative net inflow has exceeded 34 million dollars. Grayscale's research report positions ZEC as "financial privacy in the AI surveillance era," which has narrative support. The long-short ratios on Binance and OKX accounts are 0.61 and 0.32 respectively, with shorts still overwhelmingly dominant. The funding rate once dropped to -1%, meaning shorts pay longs, paying daily to hold their positions. About 36.6 million dollars worth of ZEC leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which 34.5 million were shorts liquidated; 94% of the liquidation volume was shorts holding on.
Holding positions is like taking care of a child: the more anxious you are, the slower it goes; the more you cry, the more it throws a tantrum; if you lie back and relax, it actually gets better on its own. That's exactly how I am now—no rush, no panic, no watching, just waiting for it to work itself out. At this point, chasing longs risks standing guard, shorting risks being liquidated; the only thing to do is wait.
Ladies, how much do you think ZEC will pull back? Tell me in the comments! 🧋💀
$BTC $ETH #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Disclaimer: This article contains some widely circulated data that is difficult to verify, such as Buffett's historical average stock returns. (The reason is that it has been extensively cited and paraphrased, and false AI-generated information has made verification difficult.) (If you try to search for Buffett's investment views, you can only watch his old video materials; otherwise, you will see a lot of fabricated content by later generations, with even audio impersonations without showing faces.) This article can be considered a semi-bear market deterrent guide, aimed at advising beginners to stay calm and conservative. This article quotes many economic research papers, but these views do not necessarily represent correctness. It does not constitute investment advice; profits and losses are your own responsibility. Table of Contents Preface Risks and Returns Market Classification Category One Crypto Circle, BTC Dominance How to Use This Theory for Trading Zero. Preface 1. Author's Note This article may differ somewhat from most people's beliefs, but it is a relatively correct theory based on market evolution, with high verifiability and abundant data. 2. Reading Notes Again The numerical data contained in this article has not undergone source-level verification, so there may be discrepancies with reality. One. Risks and Returns 1. Theory After extensive research, some economists believe that in mature markets, the vast majority of people's returns are related to the corresponding risks they bear, and unrelated to trading skills! (Mature markets are an important prerequisite.) In other words, based on this view, all your returns are almost entirely because you have taken on the corresponding level of risk, not because of your skills. (Leverage is a typical way to amplify risk to earn proportional returns.) 2. Proof WhyThe pattern of this "roller coaster" is actually very clear—the core is the **Federal Reserve interest rate expectations** leading the way.
**What happened in the past two days**
- On Thursday, BTC rebounded from 77,000 to a high of 82,000 (reaching a four-month high), driven by Waller hinting at a possible pause in rate hikes in September
- On Friday, the August non-farm payroll data blew past expectations: an increase of 162,000, nearly three times the market forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.1%
- Once the data was released, the market's bet on a September rate hike probability surged from 49% to 58%, causing BTC to plunge, briefly falling below 79,000 with a maximum drop of over 3.5%
- Nearly $300 million long positions were liquidated during this period
**What to watch next**
1. **September 11 CPI data** — If inflation continues to slow, Waller's "pause" argument can hold, giving BTC a chance to challenge 80,000 again; if CPI is also hot, the hawkish interpretation of the non-farm data will be further reinforced
2. **September 15 CLARITY Act vote** — This is a rare independent positive not relying on interest rate logic; if passed, it will be a major regulatory clarity boost
3. **September 16 FOMC decision** — The ultimate watershed
4. ETF fund flows: On September 3, a single-day inflow of $730 million, the largest single-day net inflow since January this year, indicating that large funds are still accumulating at low levels #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
I don't think there will be a rate hike in September, and here's why I'm so sure.
There are three reasons.
First, the 58.6% probability itself indicates the issue. If a rate hike were really coming, the market would have pushed the probability above 70% by now. It's just over 50%, which means big money is still hesitant and no consensus has formed. Officials can say a few words to raise expectations, but when it comes to the actual vote, few dare to act.
Second, the 162,000 nonfarm payroll figure looks strong, but one month's data can't indicate a trend. The overall job market is cooling down, just slowly. What's the Fed's style? When data is mixed, they always choose to wait and see; they won't rashly hike rates just because one month beats expectations. If they were to hike, they'd want to see several consecutive months of strong data, which is far from the case now.
Third, and most importantly — inflation is on a downward path. Although sticky, the direction is down, and that's a fact. The Fed's premise for hiking rates is inflation rebounding or stagnating, neither of which is happening now. Hiking rates while inflation is falling is like slapping themselves in the face; they won't do it.
So why do officials still come out hawkish? It's simple: expectation management. They fear the market pricing in rate cuts too early and loosening financial conditions, so they occasionally make tough statements to suppress market sentiment. But tough talk and actual action are two different things; haven't we seen this many times over the past half year?
In the crypto world, this drop is an emotional sell-off, not a trend reversal. Bitcoin fell from 80,000 and is now grinding between 77,000-79,000, just waiting for next week's CPI to give direction *The privacy coin rotation script is back again 👀 $ZEC → $DASH → $ZEN*
Your observation is very key. Historically, it has indeed followed this pattern.
*Historical rotation pattern*
1. *$ZEC charges first*: The leader in anonymity, it is the first to be hyped when there is news.
2. *$DASH follows*: Payment + privacy, established funds start to overflow.
3. *$ZEN catches up later*: Lowest valuation, greatest elasticity. It takes the final relay to ride the main upward wave.
`Funds flow from high market cap privacy coins to undervalued privacy coins` — this logic remains unchanged.
*What’s different about $ZEN this time*
Your key point:
*$ZEN is not just a pasted-on mixing plugin*
- *Same-source technology*: Inherits zk-SNARKs just like $ZEC, the privacy foundation is close.
- *Architecture upgrade*: Actively shut down the main chain Shield Pool, migrating to *Base L3*.
- *Result*: Turns privacy from a “chain” into an “application layer capability.”
In plain language: `In the future, you can do private swaps, cross-chain, DeFi on Base, all with privacy.`
This narrative is much bigger than just “private transfers.” It’s like turning zk privacy into Lego blocks.
*Market scenario simulation*
After $ZEC’s current rally, if the overall market stabilizes, funds are very likely to look for the next undervalued spot.
- *Catalyst*: $ZEN’s Base L3 progress + privacy DeFi narrative $SNDK
Why did SanDisk surge? On 9.21, SanDisk and Dell were simultaneously included in the S&P 100 Index, and the massive passive buying drove SanDisk's sharp rise. Wolf sees who would still dare to short SanDisk now. $SOL
After last night's non-farm payroll data release, it was a bearish factor for the overall market, but the entire storage sector surged last night. Let's review that on 11.28 last year, SanDisk was included in the S&P index, rising from the small-cap 600 to 500, so SanDisk has been soaring all this time.
Currently, the view is bearish on SanDisk but not shorting it. SanDisk may experience a short-term drop before the announcement, then rapidly rebound. Although it takes effect on the 21st, turnover might start on the 18th. SanDisk's volatility will be significant during this period! Avoid blind operations without a clear direction! $BTC
The above is Wolf's personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Hormuz Strait just exploded again, Saudi exports hit a 9-year low, oil prices stubbornly hold above $90
Brent at $95, WTI at $91, consolidating at high levels.
Three bullish cards: Saudi exports dropped to 3 million barrels/day, the lowest since 2017; US military directly attacked Iranian oil tankers, geopolitical risk premium continues to accumulate; IEA estimates a global supply deficit of 1.8 million barrels/day in Q3.
Bears also have cards: Hormuz passage is recovering, US military escorts about 18 million barrels per day; OPEC+ is still increasing production, with a daily increase of 188,000 barrels in September.
My judgment: Oil prices will fluctuate at high levels in the short term, repeatedly testing the $95-$100 range. The geopolitical premium is not over, but once the situation eases, it will quickly retreat.
For BTC, oil price rise → inflation heats up → rate hike expectations strengthen → risk assets under pressure, the transmission chain remains intact. Long crude oil watching Hormuz, long $BTC watching CPI.
$BZ $CL
#OilSupplyDisruptionRepeats, oil price high volatility #HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Robinhood's on-chain revenue surged, but funds are fleeing
The biggest problem for Robinhood Chain now is not that it can't make money, but whether this money can be sustained.
On September 2, the chain's single-day revenue once surged to $4.01 million.
It looks impressive, but on September 4, funds began to flow out in reverse, with a single-day net outflow exceeding $21 million.
What is worth noting is that the on-chain Meme hype is also clearly fading.
This inevitably raises doubts: Is Robinhood's high revenue truly driven by real on-chain demand, or is it a short-term bonus brought by the Meme market?
If the Meme hype fades and revenue drops accordingly, the so-called "annualized $100 million revenue" will be hard to sustain a high valuation. So what deserves more attention now is whether Robinhood Chain can continue to make money after the Meme hype fades.
Setting a new revenue high is only the first hurdle.
The real value lies in being able to generate cash flow continuously through market cycles. #Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 $HOOD What truly determines the direction this round is not today's non-farm payrolls, but next week's CPI. The non-farm payrolls just put the possibility of a rate hike back on the table; the CPI is the final decision. So during these event weeks, the best position is often the lightest position—you don't have to play every hand. After playing Texas Hold'em for a long time, you learn one thing: folding is more valuable than betting. Those who are fully invested waiting for the CPI are not betting on direction, but on luck. $BTC I'd rather stay empty-handed and wait for the data to land than risk being taken out by a sudden spike just to avoid missing out. Patience is also a position. #HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $ETH 【Core Nonfarm Contradiction: Divergence Between Wages and Employment Data】$BTC
1. Average hourly earnings in August rose 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. Wage growth has clearly slowed from last year's 5%, reducing the risk of wage-driven inflation and opening up room for rate cuts, which is positive for risk assets.
2. New jobs added were 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The labor market is hot, showing strong resilience in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve lacks immediate motivation to cut rates in the short term.
3. These two major signals conflict with each other, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The Fed's policy is caught in a dilemma, market expectations are swinging, and volatile, spike-like trading will become the norm. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceed expectations! Gold plunges $70, BTC dives straight down from 81,600, rate hike probability soars
Brothers, last night's nonfarm data completely stunned the market.
Expected 56,000, actual hit 162,000 — a three-month high! July was also revised up by 44,000 (from -23,000 to +21,000), two consecutive months of data slapping expectations. The job market is far from cooling down.
Once the data came out, the market instantly turned. Gold plunged $70, silver dropped $1.5, the dollar index surged 34 points, CME's bets on a September rate hike skyrocketed, wiping out the optimistic sentiment from the morning session. BTC dove from 81,600, ETH fell below 2,450, and long positions were liquidated en masse.
My judgment: this data pushed Waller's "data dependency" to the edge of a cliff.
Waller just said on Thursday "CPI decides everything," now nonfarm payrolls exploded first. Next, the September 11 CPI will decide everything — if CPI again exceeds expectations, a September rate hike is almost certain.
RSI has already dropped to 12.5, sentiment is extremely oversold, a short-term technical rebound may occur, but the big trend has been reversed by tonight's data. Before CPI is released, any rebound could be a bull trap. Don't forget, June and July data were both significantly revised upward; the job market is much stronger than imagined.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#沃勒#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #HOOD closed higher, hitting a new yearly high, leading public chains in on-chain revenue #HOOD closed higher, hitting a new yearly high, leading public chains in on-chain revenue
HOOD rose 16.5% in one day to close at 124.7, a new yearly high
Morgan Stanley upgraded to overweight with a target of 150
The real buzz is about Robinhood Chain
Single-day revenue is about $4.01 million, ranking first among public chains
In two months since launch, fees have accumulated over $13 million
Annualized volume is roughly in the hundred million range
Runs on the Arbitrum stack and shares revenue with ARB
So ARB is also heating up
But the money mainly comes from Meme and launchpads
Real demand for RWA has not yet been confirmed
So my judgment is: don’t chase a one-day champion; watch if the revenue stays stable for several weeks—only if it stabilizes does the narrative hold
$ARB $HOOD #Robinhood #on-chain revenue #HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC