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$ETH Market Depth Observation: Liquidity and Order Book Trends Under the Fed's Dovish Tone
⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for market information organization and communication only and does not constitute any investment advice. Virtual asset prices are highly volatile; please ensure proper risk control.
Major Macro Trend: Fed Hawkish Benchmark Rarely Eases
Fed Governor Waller's latest statement on September 3 became a clear dividing line in the bulls vs. bears battle:
He publicly stated that if the August inflation indicators continue to steadily decline, he tends to support holding steady and pausing rate hikes at the September FOMC meeting. This comment quickly reshaped interest rate swap pricing, causing the probability of a September rate hike to plummet from a high of 63% to 48.4%.
Waller, traditionally a core representative of the hawkish camp in the decision-making body, has had his tone widely interpreted on Wall Street as signaling the end of this tightening cycle. Boosted by this, the US Dollar Index promptly broke down and weakened, while spot precious metals and US tech-heavy stocks rallied broadly.
The fundamental logic reflected in the crypto space is: the extreme high interest rate liquidity drain pressure on risk assets is substantially easing on the margin; and with its high Beta elasticity, ETH is noticeably more sensitive to macro policy levels than BTC.
#HOOD closed higher, hitting a new high for the year, leading public chains in on-chain revenue
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 TRUMP's surge today, I glanced at it and closed it immediately. Not being sour, it's just that this coin's foundation is too rotten, a pump-and-dump style rise, specifically targeting those who can't resist.
Don't rush to curse, I'll explain point by point.
The most outrageous thing about this thing is its release mechanism. Other coins at least have a cycle for unlocking, but this one dumps 909,000 coins into the market every single day without fail, never stopping. This isn't a deflationary project; it's a perpetual money-printing machine. That's why you see it drop every now and then, and after a 50% drop, it can still be halved again because the selling pressure never stops.
Going deeper, in the previous two White House dinners, 220 big holders got trapped, and except for 35 who escaped quickly, the rest are all buried inside. Everyone knows the situation: "Tell a story to pump it up, wait for you to take the bag, then slowly cut you down." Pumping it up to help those on top get out? Don't even think about it, the house doesn't have that kind heart.
And the most critical point is that the Trump family is actually betting on WLFI. That's the real favorite; the USD1 stablecoin's market cap has already reached 4 billion, ranking in the top ten stablecoins. TRUMP, as a peripheral coin, isn't even taken seriously by the family itself. Since even the favorite son has dropped 80%, the market has long discounted the Trump family's credit, so whatever you put out, just assume an 80% discount.
Even if funds want to speculate on the Trump concept later, they'll prioritize WLFI. TRUMP at most gets some leftover scraps and can't really be pumped.
So today, whoever wants to chase it, go ahead. As for me, I'm just watching the show. This coin, don't even touch it. $TRUMP $WLFI U.S. stock market closed on Monday for Labor Day
The sentiment at Friday's close means freezing for three days
When I was watching the market on Friday, I already felt something was off
The overall market was falling, but storage and optical communication sectors were skyrocketing
SanDisk, Micron, Hynix, Marvell, Coherent—all of them were rallying
But think about it, the market falls while sectors rise, that means the market is making two completely opposite trades on the same day
Do you really believe this split can hold intact through a three-day holiday? I don't buy it
//
On Monday, A-shares open first, U.S. stocks remain closed
Domestic storage, optical modules, semiconductor equipment—I think they will likely open high, maybe even surge, but I won’t chase
The reason is simple: Monday’s A-shares are trading based on what the U.S. market has already done, not what the U.S. market is about to do
The mapped market surges first, but the U.S. market hasn’t given its answer yet
This middle period is the most vulnerable
I’ve suffered losses from this before
——
The real test comes when the U.S. market opens on Tuesday
Three days without continuous quotes, only news and speculation piling up
Once New York opens, capital will have to digest three things in a very short time:
► Friday’s nonfarm payrolls—employment is too strong, raising the probability of rate hikes, not fully priced in yet
► Geopolitical and oil price developments over the weekend
► Expectations gap for next week’s CPI
What worries me most is the first one
//
So I’m staying put this weekend
On Monday, I’ll watch how A-shares price in sentiment, but won’t chase the mapped market
On Tuesday, I’ll watch how the U.S. market reprices rates and inflation—that’s the real direction.
These three days in between aren’t a vacuum, they’re risk deferred. Money rushing to take a position early is often the first to get harvested. $HYPE This thunderbolt is about to strike on September 6
HYPE surged to 86.7, just a step away from the all-time high of 88.06, but at this moment, nearly 10 million tokens unlocking are looming right ahead.
On September 4, HYPE reported 86.71, rising nearly 6% in a single day, RSI hitting 69 approaching overbought, and market cap breaking into the top ten. The catalysts are really strong: on September 3, Hashdex's NCIQ ETF included HYPE as its fifth largest holding, opening an institutional compliance channel; on the same day, a whale wallet scooped up 430,224 HYPE (35.1 million USD); the HIP-3 upgrade (August 29) opened a permissionless perpetual market, tripling daily trading volume. There are also rumors of talks with Kraken's parent company Payward about US market access.
But I have to pour the coldest water: on September 6, 9.92 million HYPE tokens will unlock into circulation, which at the current price means over 800 million USD potential selling pressure. Historically, every large unlock has triggered a pullback. Plus, RSI is already overheated, so chasing at this level is very poor value.
My strategy: I acknowledge HYPE's fundamentals; it is the cleanest on-chain leader this round. But in the 86-88 range, I only reduce, not add. Wait for the unlock to cause a drop to 78-80 (around the 20-day EMA) before considering buying. Don't be the bag holder when everyone else is excited. Why did the mid-tier favorite Lululemon suddenly take a big tumble recently?
The stock price plunged 20% in just a few days. The data tells the whole story: the crash was directly triggered by a disastrous earnings guidance. The latest Q2 revenue was $2.42 billion, down 4% year-over-year, with global same-store sales plummeting 9%. The worst part is the company once again lowered its full-year revenue forecast to $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion, and core yoga pants sales shrank by 20% $LULU
On the surface, this seems to be about consumption downgrade and new brand diversion, such as strong competition from Alo Yoga and Vuori. But deeper down, it exposes two core crises:
Stagnation in core innovation and aesthetic fatigue
Lululemon used to dominate with its second-skin fabrics and high premiums, but in recent years the product line has lost its way, introducing a bunch of flashy, unpopular fashion styles, losing the foundational yoga pants category.
Tightening balance sheets of the middle class
The group that used to buy pants for over a hundred dollars is now sensitive to price changes, and naturally, more cost-effective alternative brands are rising.
Market outlook:
A bottom is hard to see in the short term. Even if valuations adjust, it’s difficult to hide the deceleration in North America, the company’s main market. Going forward, the company will likely drastically cut SKUs, shrink non-core categories, and be forced to return to functional classic styles. Without the belief in high premiums, Lululemon’s adjustment period will probably last years.
DYOR BTC really got pressed down by the non-farm payrolls this time.
It surged above $81,000 once, but as soon as the data came out, it dropped directly to around $79,200.
The US added 162,000 jobs in August, while the market originally expected only about 56,000.
The 10-year US Treasury yield also briefly surged to around 4.80%, reigniting expectations for a rate hike in September.
This is very realistic.
Before, $80,000 was support; now it’s starting to become resistance.
The price dropping isn’t scary.
What’s scary is that after a rebound, suddenly no one is buying near $80,000.
Because those who chased earlier might just be waiting to break even.
So the most important thing to watch for BTC next isn’t "when it will break through again."
But rather:
Can $80,000 turn back into a buying price?
And don’t forget, there’s also the CPI on September 11.
The non-farm payrolls reignited rate hike expectations.
If CPI adds fuel to the fire, BTC might continue to be under pressure.
But if CPI cools down, the market might start trading on easing expectations again.
So don’t rush to write off $80,000 just yet.
The market’s favorite thing to do is to turn yesterday’s support into today’s resistance.
$BTC $ETH Under the heavy pressure of the non-farm payrolls, ZEC's "resistance code"
In August, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the expected 56,000. This "data bomb" instantly ignited expectations of a rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields surged, BTC responded with a pullback, and the overall crypto market came under pressure. However, ZEC charted an independent course, firmly holding the $1000 mark, almost unaffected.
I once shorted ZEC near $970 with 50x leverage, aiming to capture profits from a post-rally correction. But the market gave me a sobering lesson—true strength is shown when prices don’t fall in the face of negative news. Reviewing this round of price action, ZEC led the rally when the market rose and resisted declines when risk sentiment worsened. This level of capital support goes beyond a typical rebound.
Non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations usually weigh on risk assets, but ZEC’s resilience signals two things: first, the coin may have an independent fundamental narrative, unaffected by macro sentiment; second, previous profit-taking holders did not panic sell, and instead, new funds stepped in around the $1000 level. A truly strong coin is measured not by how high it flies with the wind, but by how firmly it stands against it.
Tonight, ZEC has passed the stress test. If the macro negative factors are digested and the market stabilizes, ZEC is highly likely to break out first. The $1500 target, judging by tonight’s performance, doesn’t seem far off. Of course, the lesson from 50x leverage reminds me—no matter how strong, risk control always comes first. $ZEC Let me say something that everyone is too lazy to think about but is very critical.
The word "September" has never been a good sign for the crypto world. In the past 13 years, Bitcoin has closed green in September only 8 times, a probability of 61.54%, and altcoins almost always suffer along with it. I checked the calendar, and this year we again face the Fed meeting, non-farm payrolls, and a bunch of token unlocks. It's hard to expect a smooth and comfortable rise this month.
Geopolitics hasn't been idle either. The Iran conflict has flared up again, but guess what? Gold has reacted more than Bitcoin, with spot gold standing above $4470, while WTI oil prices remain stuck around 91. The US dollar index has dropped below 99, which should be good for risk assets, but crypto still fell this week as expected, indicating that the main pricing driver now is not risk aversion but interest rate hike expectations.
Honestly, I'm a bit surprised. In previous years, when geopolitics flared, Bitcoin at least followed gold's upward trend, but this time they diverged. Some analysts say this shows Bitcoin is now more like an inflation hedge, tied to gold rather than the Nasdaq. I partly agree with this view, but in the short term, it is still being pulled by US Treasury yields.
Another external variable: the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have risen, and the USD/JPY has dropped nearly 3% in two days. If Japanese authorities intervene and sell US Treasuries, global long-term rates will shake, and risk assets will take a hit.
My feeling is that the first half of September will be a grind; don't expect a major rally. Manage your positions well, keep some cash ready for the mid-September meeting outcome. Opportunities will come from the dips, so no need to rush. $BTC $ETH #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 I opened a trade, and the unrealized profit was 20%. I started to worry: Should I sell or not? I've already made 20%, so I should just pocket it. I sold. Then I watched it keep rising, reaching 150%. It's not that I didn't catch the right one, I did it right, and then I let go myself. This has happened many times. Every time, I tell myself: next time, hold on. The next time the unrealized profit hits 10% or 20%, my hand automatically presses sell again. It's not that I don't know, it's that I can't—until I realized a counterintuitive fact. The smartest way to take profit is not to take profit. In short, your take-profit action is systematically cutting off your only path to getting rich. Trends are the only way for ordinary people to make big money, and trends are precisely the "competitor positions taken from take-profits"—if you run every time you take profit, you're essentially handing over the most lucrative segment of the market to those who can hold onto it. Why: How take profit destroys a major trend? First, the instinct to take profit is a mirror of loss aversion. "Pocketing for safety" sounds rational, but at its core, it's the fear of "floating profits disappearing": profits are still on the account but not yet in hand, and the brain thinks, "That's not mine, it could run at any time," so it rushes to cash out. This is the same switch as taking trades—one fears losing profits, the other fears confirming losses, both driven by fear. Second, the math for small profit-taking is a bad debt. If you make 10%, you run; running 10 times equals 100%? No. If you lose even one out of ten times (a 10% loss), most of the profits from the first nine times are wiped out. And if you seize 100% of the profits once, it's worth the sum of ten small take-profit attempts, and you only need to take the extra chargeThe moment of liquidation, I couldn't believe I would make such a mistake.
People's understanding of their own nature is too shallow, lacking recognition of real limitations. What breaks at that moment is not the account, but the story of "I am the exception." This is also the cruelest aspect of non-ergodicity: before the process unfolds, the assumption "I will control it this time" is always believable because every lucky profit reinforces it. But as soon as there is an irreversible heavy blow, all previous evidence of "I made it" loses its meaning. Those were never proof that you could overcome human nature, but only proof that you hadn't encountered that one desire strong enough to move you.
And the belief in discipline itself feeds larger positions and looser stop losses, until reality repeatedly corrects this concept.
In fact, the person who can conquer human nature will never exist.74K
$ZEC → $750
$ETH → $2,350
$SOL → $95
$HYPE → $73
I don’t currently expect these zones to break easily.
BTC has reclaimed the $80K area, while ZEC and HYPE are still showing strong momentum. That leaves plenty of room for a sudden shakeout if the market gets overheated.
Let’s see if September delivers the surprise.
Quote$BTC / gold ratio has risen to around 18.17, reaching a new high since January this year, meaning Bitcoin's recent performance has clearly outpaced gold.
Behind this is actually a very interesting change.
The market is re-integrating BTC and gold into the same macro narrative, especially in an environment of fiscal pressure, currency purchasing power, and rising demand for safe havens. The correlation between the two has significantly increased, with BTC and gold correlation reaching a high level since 2020 by the end of August.
Capital flows have also given BTC a vote of confidence.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, the largest single-day inflow since January this year, and the overall net inflow in August reached about $3.5 billion.
But I don't think this means BTC can just charge ahead blindly.
Because the latest non-farm payrolls actually poured cold water on the market. US August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, employment data clearly stronger than previous market expectations, making the Fed's decision on rate cuts or maintaining rates more complicated.
So now I pay more attention to one signal — whether $80,000 can truly transform from a psychological barrier into a price level recognized by capital.
If ETF funds continue to return, and the dollar and US Treasury yields do not form obvious suppression again, then BTC continuing to strengthen relative to gold is not surprising.
But if inflation heats up again and rate expectations turn hawkish once more, BTC may again prove its biggest difference from gold — its safe-haven logic increasingly resembles gold, but its volatility remains much higher than gold.
So the real highlight of this round may not be whether BTC can catch up with gold, but whether it can firmly establish the position of "digital gold" in institutional asset allocation for the first time.
$ETH $ZEC
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ ● US-Iran conflict: In early September, the US military launched airstrikes on Iran, which retaliated with rockets and drones.
● Brent crude oil: Rose to about ~$95-96/barrel, pushing up inflation expectations.
● US 10-year Treasury yield: Remained high at around ~4.8%.
Geopolitical conflict → rising oil prices → inflation pressure → increased expectations of rate hikes, forming a transmission chain to BTC. However, the market is optimistic about a "short-lived conflict" in the short term, and some safe-haven funds have also flowed into crypto assets. $BTC $ETH ● Federal Reserve Governor Waller (9/3): Stated "If inflation continues to cool, supports holding steady in September." The probability of a rate hike dropped from 66.4% to 48-55% accordingly.
● Federal Reserve Chair Warsh (Jackson Hole, 8/28): Previously hawkish remarks, emphasizing inflation remains the main concern and not ruling out the possibility of a rate hike.
● CME FedWatch: The probability of a 25bp rate hike in September once rose to 66.4%, then fell back after Waller's speech.
● FOMC Meeting: September 15-16 is the most important policy window in this round.
Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have increased, with dovish and hawkish battles being the core driver of BTC's high volatility. Waller's dovish signal has temporarily boosted risk assets, but the final decision still depends on subsequent inflation and employment data. $BTC $ETH Brothers, it's almost 8 o'clock now. I think there is indeed a chance for a recovery wave at 9, but don't rush to treat the recovery as a reversal.
$BTC is around 79,600, after dropping from 81,378 to 78,610 and then consolidating sideways. The 15-minute moving averages have already converged, and the first round of bearish pressure has mostly been released. If volume picks up at 9, first watch 80,000—80,300, and if stronger, 80,800; but if it can't break 80,000 and volume shrinks with a pullback, it will still be a weak recovery. Key support below is 78,600; if broken, beware of a second drop.
$ETH around 2,454 is clearly weaker than BTC, grinding after falling from 2,548 to 2,428. For the 9 o'clock recovery, first watch 2,470—2,490; only a firm hold above 2,500 counts as a real strengthening; if 2,428 breaks, it remains bearish.
On the news front, non-farm payrolls were clearly stronger than expected, suppressing September rate cut expectations and putting pressure on risk assets; however, ETF funds have not fully withdrawn, so this looks more like a shock recovery after a big drop rather than a complete trend reversal.
My plan for tonight: first watch the strength of the 9 o'clock recovery, don't chase the rise or blindly short, follow only if key levels break.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC ● IBIT Highly Concentrated: One fund from BlackRock IBIT contributed 62% of inflows on September 3rd, with a single fund attracting $938M in the last week of August. Concentration is both a bullish signal and a risk point.
● Trend Reflow: Recorded net inflows in 16 trading days in August (including 9 consecutive days of inflows), institutional funds are shifting from "significant outflows from May to July" to inflows.
● Not Yet Positive: Net outflows persist year-to-date, indicating that redemption pressure from May to July has not been fully absorbed. $ETH Bottom-fishing discipline (conclusion)
Don't bottom-fish now, wait for the CPI. Three approaches:
1. Conservative (recommended): Hold cash until September 11. If CPI is cooler → follow the right side and stand at 83,000; if hotter → wait for volume contraction at 74,000–76,000
2. Aggressive small position: Current price no more than 10% of total position, stop loss strictly at 76,500, don't hold if broken
3. Absolutely not: Don't leverage before CPI — volatility is doubled, one spike and it bursts
The real bottom-fishing opportunity is the resonance of "CPI cooler + continuous ETF inflow + 76,500 not broken," not today's ETF divergence in the middle of a downtrend.
⚠️ Privacy coins like DASH require even more restraint: EU bans anonymous transactions by 2027, most CEXs have delisted or switched to withdrawal-only, liquidity can evaporate anytime, making them even less suitable for "bottom-fishing."
In short: You can bottom-fish, but only after CPI confirmation, not before CPI speculation. Hold cash now; you only qualify to act at 8:30 PM on September 11.Is the DOGE ETF really the start of institutionalization, or just a new coat for an old narrative? My view is: currently, it looks more like the latter.
Let me be clear first, the spot ETF does solve a real problem. Previously, ordinary investors who wanted to get into DOGE had to register on exchanges, manage private keys, and worry about platforms running away—high barriers. Now you can buy it by simply opening a securities account, as easily as buying stocks, compliant and worry-free. This is a genuine improvement. But "easy to buy" and "worth holding long-term" are two different things. The ETF just moved the shelf to your doorstep; what's on the shelf hasn't changed at all.
The data is quite honest too. The latest monthly net inflow is about $318,000. In the context of institutional funds, this number isn't even a test water—it looks more like a casual buy to watch the show. What does real institutional allocation look like? It's stable inflows over several months or quarters, formal positions written into portfolio reports. DOGE is still far from this step.
So the question returns to the old place: why is $DOGE worth holding long-term? The ETF can't answer this. To answer this, it depends on other things—whether anyone really uses it for payments, whether on-chain activity can sustain, and whether the value capture logic is clear. Community culture is its root, but for the root to grow into a tree that institutions dare to place orders on, it still needs the rains of capital flow and application landing.
My conclusion is simple: the ETF is a good channel, but the channel is not the destination. It makes DOGE easier to buy, but doesn't make DOGE easier to "hold on to". $BANANA is showing mild bullish momentum, up 0.72% near $4.047, with price above MA5, MA10 and MA20. Buyers are holding the recovery, while $4.112 is the immediate resistance. A clean breakout could strengthen momentum toward $4.30, while rejection may bring a pullback toward $3.90 support. The next reaction is worth watching closely.The probability of a rate hike has reached 58.6%, yet the market hasn't really dropped, which does seem a bit unusual. Actually, the market is flat today, and the core reason is one sentence: all the bad news is out, and both bulls and bears are waiting for next week's CPI. #Federal Reserve officials say a rate hike is necessary, with a 58.6% probability in September
Last night, the non-farm payrolls of 162,000 directly pushed the rate hike expectation from 50% to 60%. The harshest sell-off has already happened—$BTC dropped from 81,340 to below 79,600 in five minutes, and $ETH fell below 2,500. Positions that needed to be liquidated were liquidated last night, and funds that needed to exit have already exited. The overnight market volume has shrunk to the extreme, with major bulls and bears all watching.
But the market didn't continue to fall today because something is supporting it underneath:
$BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $175 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net inflows. Institutions are buying the dip, not fleeing in panic. Strive's funds bought over 1,000 $BTC this week, and Standard Chartered Bank launched spot trading for $BTC and $ETH in the UAE. Big money is buying, so the price can't fall. #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The 58.6% rate hike probability is already priced in. What the market is really waiting for is the CPI on September 11—that will be the final judge on whether to hike rates. If CPI cools down, the rate hike probability will drop, and $BTC and $ETH will rebound; if CPI exceeds expectations, the rate hike will be confirmed, and we'll take another hit. #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 DOGE doing RWA is less of a functional upgrade and more of an identity rewrite. Its original positioning was very clear: fast transfers, low fees, a practical payment tool. Fractal Engine wants to make it the pricing currency for real-world asset trading, which means asking a payment asset to take on the role of a platform asset—two tasks that differ greatly in difficulty.
The supporters' logic is straightforward. $DOGE has a large holder base and high recognition. If tokenized real-world assets can be issued and settled on-chain, DOGE would transform from a "held symbol" into a "used medium," shifting demand from trading sentiment to real settlement. This is exactly the missing piece for payment assets in the long term. Timothy Stebbing’s choice to first go with a sidechain and then consider migrating to the mainnet shows the team understands the cost of mainnet transformation and is willing to experiment at low cost.
But the doubts are equally valid. The core of RWA competition lies in compliance, custody, issuing institutions, and secondary market depth—resources concentrated in mature ecosystems like Ethereum, which won’t migrate just because a sidechain launches. DOGE lacks smart contract accumulation and has a thin developer ecosystem. Packaging a payment asset as a platform asset most commonly results in narrative first, applications absent.
This plan looks more like an option: imaginative direction, no proof of execution. Whether it’s an upgrade or just riding a trend depends not on what the proposal says but on whether real assets go on-chain and sustained trading volume appears within a year or two. Until then, it’s worth tracking but not worth betting on. 6 вересня у HYPE запланований unlock 9.92 млн токенів для core contributors. За нинішньою ціною це приблизно $840M. І от тут я завис. Бо коли дивлюся на позиціонування трейдерів, відчуття таке, ніби ринок цю новину поки особливо не боїться. Співвідношення Long/Short у великих трейдерів зараз +-1.74:1 в залежності від біржі: 🟢 Long — $70.2M 🔴 Short — $40.4M Funding теж залишається переважно позитивним. При цьому HYPE вже сходив до $88.2, після чого отримав відкат до району $83–84 і зараз знову Why Sandisk (SanDisk) Soared
Original by Coin Brother Community
SanDisk's surge this round is not just a simple thematic speculation; it is the result of multiple factors resonating together: AI demand explosion + NAND flash price increase cycle + spin-off leading to valuation reappraisal + long-term contracts locking in profits.
1. Core foundation: AI has thoroughly boosted flash memory demand
In the past, NAND mainly relied on the consumer markets of mobile phones, PCs, USB drives, and memory cards.
Now, AI inference, vector databases, KVCache, large model cold storage, AI servers use 3 to 10 times more NAND flash per machine than traditional servers.
2. Industry cycle: NAND flash volume and price rise together, oligopolies control capacity
Storage is a strongly cyclical industry. In 2023, the entire industry suffered losses; major manufacturers proactively controlled capital expenditures and expansion, tightening supply; from 2026, NAND contract prices will continue to rise sharply.
3. Capital aspect: spun off from Western Digital for independent listing, valuation reappraisal
4. Significant long-term locked orders, profit floor secured
Nearly $100 billion in multi-year long-term supply contracts have been signed, with customer prepayments received. Over half of enterprise-level capacity for the next two years is already locked by cloud providers. Even if flash prices decline later, contracts have floor price protection, keeping profit floors very stable and eliminating the biggest uncertainty of cyclical stocks.
5. Objective risks (not just looking at the rise)
1) Essentially still a cyclical stock; if the original manufacturers massively expand production later, NAND supply will increase, prices will quickly fall, and performance will be directly suppressed;$SNDK Shorting SanDisk: When the "Cycle Reversal" Story of NAND Hits the High-Interest-Rate Wall, Are the Good Days of the Flash Memory Giant Ending Before They Even Begin?
The market's expectations for SanDisk have been brewing for over half a year. NAND prices stabilizing, original manufacturers cutting production, AI servers driving enterprise-level SSD demand—each narrative alone is positive, and combined they have led many investors to believe that this flash memory giant spun off from Western Digital is entering the dawn of a cycle reversal. But if you carefully calculate the macro picture, understand the competitive landscape, and dissect the truth behind the gross margin, SanDisk's current stock price may have already priced in the most optimistic expectations. Shorting SanDisk is not a bearish bet on the NAND sector itself, but a bet against the pricing error where "the story runs faster than reality."
1. Macro Cold Shower: U.S. Treasury Yields at High Levels, Tech Stock Valuations Under Pressure
Currently, U.S. Treasury yields are at their highest since January 2025, and the rising risk-free rate is starting to hurt growth stocks. Although SanDisk, as a semiconductor cyclical stock, is not exactly the same as a high-valuation growth stock, its profit recovery pace heavily depends on macro demand. In a high-interest-rate environment, corporate IT spending is cautious, consumer electronics recovery is weak, and cloud providers, while investing in AI, are carefully budgeting every dollar spent.
The demand side for NAND flash has not seen a comprehensive, strong recovery—only structural improvements. The market has priced "structural improvement" as a "full reversal," which is the first expectation gap. As U.S. Treasury yields remain high and liquidity tightens, cyclical stocks like SanDisk, which rely on cyclical elasticity, are often the first to be reduced by institutions.
2. The Rise in NAND Prices May Be a "Breather" Rather Than a "Trend Reversal"
Undeniably, NAND spot prices have rebounded from the bottom, and original manufacturers' production cuts have had an effect. However, the strength and sustainability of this price recovery are questionable. Historically, the NAND industry’s cyclical characteristics are very clear: once prices rebound, original manufacturers loosen supply discipline because no one wants to lose market share. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, and SanDisk itself all know how tempting capacity expansion is.
Once prices rise above the cash cost for some manufacturers, the impulse to increase production will resurface. As long as one supplier cannot hold back, the price rebound may end prematurely. More importantly, NAND inventory remains high, and end demand has not shown exponential growth. Under these circumstances, the price rebound looks more like a technical correction within a long-term downtrend rather than the start of a new cycle. If SanDisk’s stock price has already priced in a "reversal," shorts just need to wait for reality to catch up.
3. SanDisk’s Own Financial Reports Hide the Most Painful Data
SanDisk’s financial reports provide the best evidence for shorts. Although the data center business is repeatedly emphasized as a growth engine, its revenue share and gross margin performance fall far short of market expectations. Competition in enterprise SSDs is fierce—Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are all fighting for this market. SanDisk lacks DRAM pairing capability and IDM model cost advantages, making it more of a "participant" than a "leader" in the most profitable data center market.
Looking at overall gross margin, although NAND prices have rebounded from the bottom, SanDisk’s gross margin improvement is not significant. The reason is simple: product structure upgrades take time, and competition in the general NAND market remains intense. If the next financial report cannot provide convincing data center revenue growth and gross margin improvement, the market will quickly abandon the "reversal" narrative, and the stock price will return to its original position.
4. Technical Aspect: Top of the Rebound Channel, Shorting Opportunity Maturing
From a technical perspective, after a low-level rebound, SanDisk has entered a key resistance area. Trading volume has noticeably shrunk in the late rebound phase, indicating that buying pressure driving the price up is drying up. If the stock price shows signs of stagnation here, such as long upper shadows or volume-price divergence, it will be an ideal entry point for shorts.
Stop-loss for shorting SanDisk can be set above the recent rebound high, with targets looking toward previous platforms or even lower. Given the current macro and industry background, the sustainability of the rebound is likely limited, and once the logic is disproven, the decline tends to be faster than the rise.
5. Core Logic and Risks of the Short Position
The core logic for shorting SanDisk can be summarized as: high interest rates suppress demand, supply discipline is unreliable, the data center story lacks substance, gross margin improvement falls short of expectations, and the technical chart has entered a resistance zone. These five factors combine to create a high-probability window for shorting.
Of course, the risks for shorts must be acknowledged. The most direct risk is a sudden sharp jump in NAND prices or cloud providers unexpectedly increasing capital expenditures. If these occur, SanDisk’s stock price could surge rapidly in the short term. Therefore, strict position control and decisive stop-loss are necessary. But based on currently available information, the probability of such positive shocks is much lower than the probability of "expectations falling short."
The Better the Story, the Bigger the Opportunity for Shorts
The market loves reversal stories, especially after a stock has languished at low levels for a long time. But a true reversal requires data validation, gross margin support, and supply discipline maintenance. What SanDisk currently offers is far from enough to support a complete "cycle reversal" evidence chain.
When NAND prices are merely catching a breath, when the data center story cannot support the valuation, and when U.S. Treasury yields weigh on all growth stocks, every rebound of SanDisk may just hand shorts a better entry ticket. The fate of cyclical stocks is: expectations rise first, reality arrives later, and the gap in between is the shorts’ profit. $SOL quietly climbed to 104, but the real big money isn't in the spot market at all
SOL rose, but the increase was very "quiet," with a 3.8% gain hidden under BTC's short squeeze halo, unnoticed by retail investors.
On September 4, SOL rose 3.8% to 104.27, climbing back from a low in the 80s, slightly up over 7 days. But if you only look at the price, you lose. The core narrative for this SOL rally isn't price, but ETF and payment penetration.
SoSoValue data shows that on September 3, SOL spot ETF net inflow was $6.4 million. Although the volume is small, there was "not a single outflow"—the four major spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL all had net inflows that day, a rare alignment for 2026. On-chain payment scenarios are also expanding, with daily payment adoption rising, which is what sets SOL apart from pure memes.
But I have to pour cold water: the biggest variable for SOL right now is the Trump family. The TRUMP token is an asset on Solana, and the team transferred 11.01 million SOL (about $26.65 million) to exchanges again on September 1, with cumulative transfers exceeding $150 million since April. This kind of "rising while moving bricks" selling pressure will weigh on SOL.Recent comprehensive review of the crypto market
⚠️ Market review only, does not constitute any investment advice, contracts carry high risk
I. Summary of key macro events
1. The market initially bet on weakening employment and priced in rate cuts and easing expectations, causing funds to slightly push up coin prices in advance; Federal Reserve official Waller expressed dovish views, and the market generally expected rates to remain unchanged.
2. Nonfarm payroll data surprised: 162,000 new jobs added, far exceeding the expected 55,000, showing strong employment resilience. The market immediately repriced the probability of rate hikes, with September hike expectations rising close to 60%, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, and risk assets collectively came under pressure and declined.
3. The two most important upcoming market dates: September 11 CPI inflation data, and September 16 Federal Reserve meeting; these two results will set the short-term major direction.
II. Price and fund performance
• BTC: surged ahead to test 81,300 before data, quickly dropped to 78,600 after nonfarm release, then slightly recovered; the 80,000 level shifted from support to short-term psychological resistance.
• ETH: more volatile, broke below key support at 2,500, fell back to around 2,450 and oscillated; the market shifted from a one-sided bullish trend to a wide-range oscillation driven by macro data.
III. Summary of bullish and bearish logic
✅ Bullish logic: If next week's CPI inflation falls, rate hike expectations cool down, and easing expectations return, coin prices will see a corrective rebound.
❌ Bearish logic: If CPI rises again, inflation remains sticky, the Fed retains the option to hike rates, liquidity tightens, and selling pressure at high levels leads to further declines. The trend of $CP is much weaker than I imagined.
Since it had the courage to abandon the market-common strategy of attracting attention through airdrops next door, and instead chose the quality certification route of OKX spot, I expected it to have some substance.
But now it has turned into choosing OKX as a gold plating, skipping the airdrop next door has instead become a starvation path:
1. The airdrop next door is not just a channel, it is the main battlefield for retail investor attention. Skipping it costs only 1,180 holders.
Listed on seven exchanges, yet the number of token holders is still less than some memes 😂
2. A 700% turnover rate is not popularity, it’s arbitrage. With only seven thin pools, market makers are shuttling back and forth, no real buying demand.
3. There are no liquidity catalysts ahead. Tokens that follow the airdrop path still have stories of going to futures and spot markets later. But with this approach, CP has already written its own storyline prematurely.
The only comeback hint: listing on a Korean exchange. But the premise is that it must first hold steady at 0.03.$ZEC's recent surge is indeed a bit exaggerated. I originally didn't want to elaborate, but since everyone is asking, I'll share my understanding.
ZEC has now entered a high volatility range, with the latest price around $1000 and a market cap of about $17 billion, placing it among the top in the crypto market.
The core narrative behind this rally, besides the renewed interest in privacy-focused projects, is more importantly the institutional funds and ETF expectations. Grayscale previously pushed the Zcash Trust towards a spot ZEC ETF, and the recent listing of a Zcash ETF in the US has further strengthened the market's imagination of institutional participation.
So, when bearish on ZEC now, the key concern isn't simply whether the valuation is high or not, but the volatility risk under a strong trend: the faster it rises, the quicker the pullback can be, and shorts can easily be forced out by continuous rallies. Recent market data shows ZEC once broke through $1000, accompanied by large-scale short liquidations, indicating that sentiment and leverage have clearly heated up.
My view is simple:
ZEC can continue to be strong, but strong doesn't mean it will only go up without falling.
What the market really needs to watch now is whether ETF funds can sustain, whether effective support can form above $1000, and when this wave of sentiment will start to cool down.
As for going long or short specifically, I prefer to first assess risk and position size rather than presetting a "must rise to" or "must fall to" target.
The higher the hype, the more we must not forget the risks. When $200 million was liquidated overnight, I was watching the market—bears celebrating, bulls silent. Have you ever thought that what really caused the market to collapse might not be the data itself, but our belief in the "position before the data" is safe? Last night's nonfarm payroll data was like a bucket of ice water, waking those still immersed in Waller's remarks. Before the release, BTC was firmly holding at 81,000, ETH held at 2,530, and everything seemed supportive. But as soon as the numbers came out, 162,000 new jobs were created, far exceeding expectations, and the market instantly turned hostile. BTC fell below 78,000, down nearly 4.5% in a single day, while ETH slipped from 2,530 to around 2,400, a drop of over 5%. This was not a simple correction but a leverage cleanup. During the early morning liquidation, over $200 million was liquidated across the entire network in nearly an hour, with long positions accounting for 186 million. Those who were hyping bullish during the day were directly carried away at night. I remember clearly, during that period, the altcoins generally dropped over 10%, and the whole market seemed to have its backbone drained, with concentrated emotions released without resistance. Many people ask, why is the crypto sector falling due to strong nonfarm payrolls? The logic is actually straightforward: good jobs → rising rate hike expectations, → USD strengthening→ risk assets under pressure. BTC, ETH, and SOL are all spared; at times like this, technical aspects fail, and capital conditions are the real commanding force. But that's not what I want to say. What I want to say is, we are too used to treating "flat trading before data" as a safety cushion, but the real risk is never in seeing volatilityTalking about the AI sector, we first need to review the past.
In the last bull market, how did the AI concept take off? $WLD ignited it first, followed by $FET and $ARKM surging fiercely. Finally, those Agent projects from AI16Z pushed the bubble to the extreme, ending in a mess. There were coins that rose dozens or even hundreds of times, but the last buyers suffered the worst losses. However, the bursting of the bubble was not the end; it was a filter. The projects that survived have some real substance.
This round, when discussing AI Agents again, the logic is somewhat different. The last round was purely speculative, but this time we can see some actual implementations—Agents don’t have bank accounts but can directly use wallets, receive stablecoins, and execute payments automatically. This is actually the most natural interface between AI and Crypto. Simply put, the technology can work, and the business model is taking shape, which is much more solid than last time.
Currently, the entire AI Agent sector’s market cap is less than $3 billion, which I personally think is undervalued. Of course, it won’t be a broad rally; I judge that no more than three to five projects will really take off. The key is whether they have real users, can receive money, and if their tokens can appreciate accordingly.
In terms of allocation, I’m more focused on $VIRTUAL, as the ecosystem foundation is already there. Next is TAO, which is heading in the direction of decentralized computing power, with a relatively solid logic. The sector might ignite at any time in the short term, but don’t go all in right away; even if it really starts, it depends on the overall market mood. If you want to participate, hold a base position and add more when the wind comes.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ On September 2, CZ said that "hot money" is flowing back into crypto from AI, reasoning that "you and AI ultimately still need money."Breaking down the data: $BTC rose about 25% from under $65,000 in mid-August to $81,271 on September 4; on September 3, the US spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, the largest since January 14. On the downside, there are three points: 454 million, over 60%, came from a single issuer, indicating concentrated channels rather than broad-based inflow.The valuation scenario for ETH could be even wilder than 333x
I just saw an internal note from Ark Invest, assuming ETH will account for 5% of global household wealth allocation in the future (currently about 0.01%), corresponding to a market cap of $15 trillion. Compared to the current $300 billion, that's a direct 50x upside.
But I think this calculation is too conservative.
What really keeps me up at night is the narrative of "digital oil"—if ETH becomes the pricing power carrier for gas fees on the global settlement layer, the rental income leveraged by a trillion-dollar annual transaction volume, when discounted back using a valuation model, could push the unit price to $50,000.
Of course, the premise is that all L2 fees are returned to the mainnet, and regulators recognize it as a "commodity."
I'm not calling a trade; I'm thinking: when institutions start measuring ETH with the "sovereign reserve" yardstick, is the current $300 billion the peak or the base?
At least, Buffett thought gold was expensive when he bought it, but then gold rose 5x.
The valuation ceiling for $ETH is not in the math, but in the speed of consensus migration. NVIDIA Acquires Hugging Face (Confirmed September 3-4)
NVIDIA acquired the open-source AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. The market logic is: a positive for NVIDIA is a positive for the entire AI hardware chain, with AI infrastructure investment expectations further strengthened, leading to increased storage demand.
NVIDIA's acquisition of Hugging Face is not a direct order benefit for SanDisk, but it boosts sentiment in the storage sector by reinforcing the logic chain of AI infrastructure investment expectations. The market interprets this as a continuation of "a positive for NVIDIA is a positive for the entire AI hardware chain."
This event coincides closely in time with SanDisk's inclusion in the S&P 100, creating a dual resonance of "fundamental logic strengthening + short-term event-driven" factors, which was a key driver of SanDisk's surge on September 4. In the medium term, the real impact of NVIDIA's acquisition on SanDisk depends on whether the AI ecosystem expansion can continuously translate into actual incremental demand for NAND, and SanDisk's performance will gradually shift from "dual event-driven" back to NAND supply-demand fundamentals and earnings realization ability. $SNDK Has the bull market started? Here's a checklist for confirmation. There are already three signals indicating a bullish trend: $BTC has firmly held above the true market mean (the average accumulated cost of active wallets, filtering out dead wallets and miner wallets)—holding strong at a level where many are long-term trapped and currently breaking even and selling is itself a sign of strength; it is also above the average entry price of short-term holders; the 200-day moving average has been reclaimed, and historically, a strong recovery of this line often marks the start of a bull market. Only two are missing: the 50-week moving average and the 365-day moving average—which both happen to be clustered around the 80k to 82k range, the final line before the bull market officially kicks off. As long as these two weekly moving averages close above 82.2k, that is the ultimate, final confirmation: the bull market has truly arrived. Until then, you cannot rule out that Bitcoin is still in a bear market. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
I am Cige. Hamark clearly stated that the policy has not suppressed inflation and needs to continue tightening. After the non-farm payrolls landed at 162,000, the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 58.6%, and the market has already preemptively raised rates on behalf of the Federal Reserve.
But on the other hand, wage growth has dropped to an annual low of 3.09%, with real wage growth turning negative, and Trump is calling for a rate cut. Three forces are pulling simultaneously, and the direction is not yet unified.
September CPI is the key variable. Bloomberg expects overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year at 2.4%. If the core CPI decline exceeds expectations, the rate hike logic will be weakened. If the overall CPI exceeds expectations along with the non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve has no reason to wait any longer. The non-farm payrolls have already overturned the table; CPI will decide how this game ends. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC is still trading near the upper end of its recent range, but the signal from the broader market is far from simple. Bitcoin pushed above $83K earlier this week before pulling back toward $81K. The move came as expectations for easier monetary policy improved, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller maintaining a more accommodative stance if inflation continues to cool. But there’s a second story developing. Investors are still keeping plenty of money on the sidelines. Defensive positioning remHere comes something interesting! One Bitcoin $BTC can be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold $XAU $XAUT, the highest level since January this year, indicating the market is trading on the same logic—the US dollar's credit is cracking, and money is fleeing into hard assets.
This is not a safe haven; it is a full return of the "currency depreciation trade." The trigger was the US Treasury's announcement that public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, while increasing debt buyback scale, causing funds to systematically escape fiat currency. The Grayscale report shows BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has surged above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped to about 33%. BTC is shedding its tech stock label and being revalued as a hard asset against fiat depreciation.
Can this strength continue? Bears will point to the 162,000 nonfarm payrolls and a more than 50% chance of rate hikes. But bulls believe that as long as the debt problem remains unresolved, the underlying logic of the depreciation trade will not disappear. Some analysts note that the BTC/gold ratio is in a symmetrical triangle consolidation; if it breaks upward, the ratio could be pushed to 23.6 to 26.1 ounces.
My judgment is simple: this time BTC outperforming gold is no longer just about trading digital gold; it is macro funds systematically reallocating. As long as the US debt problem is unresolved and currency depreciation remains a policy option, BTC's logic as a tool against fiat depreciation is hard to falsify. Therefore, I am more bullish; the trend of BTC outperforming gold is not over yet. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ @OKX星球 MU (Micron) and SNDK (SanDisk) have recently seen strong rebounds, but this does not change our previous core judgment—the supply bottleneck in memory has not been eliminated.
The same situation applies to other key components such as CW lasers and substrates.
Short-term sentiment will always fluctuate with prices and macro data, but the degree of imbalance on the demand side is likely more severe than the market expects:
Demand gap as high as 40%-60%: According to today's Nikkei report, Japanese distributors revealed that current actual memory demand exceeds supply by 67%-150%, a huge gap. It is expected that overall memory prices will rise another 50% by the end of the year.
AI capital expenditure is underestimated: The widely discussed $1.3 trillion hyperscale capital expenditure does not include $SPCX (related target). In fact, AI-related capital expenditure alone (estimated by Wells Fargo at about $263 billion) could push the final total far beyond expectations.
Long-term profitability confirmed: $SNDK is expected to maintain a gross margin of 80% through 2030—this also adds weight to its inclusion in the S&P 100 index. Meanwhile, giants like Samsung have begun providing long-term performance guidance through 2031, giving the industry unprecedented visibility.
Of course, memory is a typically high-volatility sector. Part of my personal position has gained over 270%, so I am more composed facing short-term fluctuations—but it must be admitted that operational fundamentals and short-term stock prices often do not synchronize.
This analytical framework also applies to other cyclical industries $$Inclusion in the S&P 100 Index (announced on September 4, effective September 21)
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that SanDisk will officially be included in the S&P 100 Index on September 21, alongside Dell, Palo Alto Networks, and Arista Networks. This was the most direct catalyst for the surge on September 4 — funds tracking this index must complete their portfolio adjustments and purchases within this month.
SanDisk's inclusion in the S&P 100 is a typical "index effect" catalyst event, with an expected $3 billion in passive buying driving a sharp short-term rise in the stock price. However, historical experience shows that the inclusion effect often quickly fades after taking effect, and the risk of "buying the rumor, selling the fact" should not be ignored. What makes SanDisk special is the strong fundamental logic of its AI storage business, which may provide some support for the stock price in the medium term. Nevertheless, considering the significant price increase this year and the extremely crowded institutional holdings, the volatility risk around the effective date of September 21 is significantly elevated. Subsequent trends will gradually shift from "index-driven" back to "fundamentals-driven." $SNDK Is 2500 the lifeline or a trap for $ETH? BlackRock and Fidelity are quietly scooping up
But don't get too excited yet, behind this breakout, some are heavily shorting while others are heavily buying, it's completely schizophrenic.
On September 4, ETH rose 4-5% breaking through 2500, reaching near 2500 at its peak, reversing more than half a month's weakness. On the surface, it looks like a broad rally, but the on-chain data is interesting: Abraxas Capital bought 16,554 ETH spot in the past 12 hours (about 39.8 million USD), yet the same address holds a short position worth 291.4 million USD on Hyperliquid.
Buying spot while shorting perpetuals is a typical "basis arbitrage," not simply bullish. It shows smart money is earning the spread, not betting on direction. The ETF side is solid support: on September 3, ETH ETFs had a net inflow of 141.4 million USD, with BlackRock's ETHA taking 72.07 million and Fidelity's FETH following, ending the previous 12-day inflow streak.
Macro is the real engine. Fed's Waller dove, saying inflation improvement means rates will hold, cutting the rate hike probability from 63% to 50%, 10-year Treasury yields moving toward 4.76%, and a weakening dollar—this combo is a stimulant for high-beta assets like ETH.I am Cige, and $SNDK has once again ignited market sentiment. On September 4th, the stock price rose about 12% in a single day, becoming one of the strongest performers in the S&P 500 that day. The core driver behind this is still the demand for AI data centers and the expected price increase of NAND.
But what’s truly worth pondering is the supply side: SanDisk and Kioxia plan to invest over $31 billion in Japan by 2032, with new capacity at the North factory expected to gradually come online starting fiscal year 2029. The market is currently trading on "immediate shortage + price increase," while industrial capital has already begun to bet ahead on supply expansion years from now; as new capacity gradually comes online, today’s super cycle narrative may also face a revaluation. The bearish view around 1765 remains unchanged for now, but timing is more important than direction—the most dangerous moment for cyclical stocks is often not when bad news appears, but when everyone starts believing that price increases can continue indefinitely. $BTC $ETH $ZEC#August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Heat Up
With nonfarm payrolls dropping by 162,000, $BTC fell from 82,178 to 78,650 in just two hours. More painful than the drop itself is that the long positions chased yesterday are now all stuck halfway down the mountain.
My view is straightforward: no longs near 80,000, just wait for a clean liquidation.
Three reasons, no beating around the bush:
First, the nonfarm data tore apart the narrative of "a certain rate cut in September." Interest rate futures pricing quickly adjusted, the dollar rebounded, and the first to be cut were leveraged positions in risk assets.
Second, over 120,000 options contracts remain open above 80,000; the pain point is not above but below. The price is pulled up for settlement, but the direction is down.
Third, funding rates flattened during the rebound, indicating that all the longs chasing are retail traders, while institutions are using the opportunity to reduce positions. I've seen this kind of divergence too many times.
In 2023, I suffered the exact same loss: I chased full positions on the breakout night, got stopped out by the pullback the next day, and only then did the market truly start. Later, I changed my approach: on breakout day, only reduce, never add, and wait three days for confirmation.
So this week I will execute as follows:
· Keep a base position in spot, no additions
· Place an order to buy the first lot at 76,200, stop loss at 74,800
· Only if the daily close recovers above 80,500 will I admit I was wrong and chase longs
Multiple choice, pick one and set a stop loss:
A. Stay flat, wait for the September 16 rate decision before acting
B. Place an order at 76,200 with stop loss at 74,800
C. Short now, target 76,300
Choose wisely and set your stop loss. Answers without stop loss are no better than no answer.Last night’s non-farm payroll data completely changed the short-term mood. The numbers came in much stronger than expected, and the market’s expectations for tighter monetary policy started heating up again. Normally, stronger employment data + higher rate-hike expectations should be bad news for risk assets. But the reaction was strange. US stocks remained relatively resilient, while BTC and the broader crypto market took the hit. August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far above the expNonfarm payrolls exploded with 162,000 added, and the probability of a rate hike surged back to 60%
In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, three times the expected 56,000. In short: the Fed's rate hike in September has shifted from "impossible" to "highly likely."
The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.79%, the 2-year yield hit a new high of 4.40% since January 2025, the dollar surged, and gold plunged below 4400.
What does this mean for the crypto space? High interest rates = safer assets become more attractive = risk assets under pressure. BTC didn't crash this time because ETF inflows were too strong (net inflow of 730 million on September 3), but the foundation is shaky.
The key variable is next week's CPI: PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday. Morgan Stanley put it bluntly: nonfarm payrolls raise concerns, but "ultimately it's about inflation." If CPI is weak, the Fed has reason to downplay employment; if CPI is strong, the rate hike is confirmed.
My judgment: September is a macro month, data > KOL calls. Nonfarm payrolls have already put hawkish chips on the table. Whether this crypto rebound can continue depends entirely on whether next week's CPI cooperates. Those with heavy positions should reduce leverage first. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% $BTC $BTC has fallen back below $80,000, is the old cycle invalid?
According to OKX data, BTC is currently at $79,634, down 1.89% in 24 hours, with $80,000 now becoming the dividing line between bulls and bears.
As the price weakens, OG holders who have held coins for over 5 years have started frequently shifting their chips; the 90-day average on-chain transfer volume has risen to 1,500 coins, doubling since May.
The movement of old coins increases selling pressure expectations, but some may simply be changing cold wallets due to recent security incidents.
Regarding mining companies, Bitdeer mined 282 BTC in a week and sold them, continuing to maintain zero holdings, still covering costs with output; the market has to digest their real sell orders daily.
In terms of cycles, BTC's maximum drawdowns in previous rounds have narrowed from 85%, 84%, and 77% to 53%, and the gains from lows to new highs have decreased from 580x, 130x, and 22x to 8x.
The market is indeed more mature than before.
Some analysts believe BTC is shifting from the traditional four-year cycle to a longer 6 to 8-year cycle.
But personally, I think the supply cycle brought by halving has not changed.
What is more likely now is that ETFs and institutional capital entering the market have enhanced absorption capacity, reducing BTC's previous volatility, rather than the four-year cycle becoming invalid.
The most critical thing in the current market is that $BTC needs to quickly and effectively counterattack and reclaim $80,000.
If weakness continues and capital inflow is insufficient, it may return to around $76,000 to continue oscillating.
Also, before BTC firmly stands again, most altcoins may find it difficult to open up space. On September 4, SanDisk rose 11.9%. Micron is also soaring. The reason is simple—OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, and demand for NAND in AI infrastructure has surged again. But despite the increase, storage giants are doing exactly the same thing as Bitcoin miners—crazily ramping up capacity at peak prices. TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter in Q3. Prices are indeed rising. But the increase is narrowing. Why? Contract prices have reached historic highs, and consumer customers' price tolerance has reached its limit. On the demand side, AI inference and data centers are all supporting the market. SanDisk and Kioxia have jointly invested over $31 billion to expand NAND capacity in Japan. Fab2 is already mass-producing the 10th generation 3D Flash, with Fab3 targeted for mass production in fiscal year 2029. On September 4, the Bank of Korea said that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expanding their production lines, and the new factory to start production by 2028 will increase South Korea's monthly wafer capacity by about 600,000 wafers. Watch the timeline—2028 and 2029. TrendForce has already predicted: in the second half of 2027, NAND will shift from supply shortage to oversupply. In other words—prices are still rising, and the leaders are betting on the surplus in three years. Isn't this the Bitcoin miners' script? Bitcoin rises→ miners frantically get on machines→ computing power surges→ mining difficulty rises→ profits are squeezed. It's exactly the same cycleAfter the big non-farm drop! ETF funds show huge divergence, do not blindly follow institutions
After the non-farm data triggered a market pullback, BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw capital inflows, but the market funds showed severe polarization. Institutional behavior should not be directly taken as an entry signal; timing the entry is especially critical.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $174.6 million in one day, with funds highly concentrated. BlackRock's IBIT took in $117.38 million net inflow, Fidelity's FBTC received $57.22 million, while most other ETFs had almost no fund movement. This round of buying was basically led by these two leading institutions.
Ethereum ETFs also attracted large inflows, with BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH together bringing in over $115 million. However, internal divergence was obvious; Bitwise's $ETHW saw a net outflow of $48.3 million, and most other products remained mostly flat.
It is clear that after the big drop, institutions did not collectively panic and flee. Instead, the leading giants took advantage of the low prices to accumulate, concentrating funds into top ETFs. But small and medium institutions and ordinary participants still chose to wait and watch, with no sign of a full-scale rush of funds into the market.
Concerns about interest rate hikes still hang over the market. This inflow is just the action of a few leading institutions and does not represent a unanimous bullish view across the market. Institutions have ample funds to build positions in batches, but ordinary traders cannot bear the risk of being trapped at high levels.
Institutions daring to build positions at lows does not mean now is the entry time for everyone. Do not impulsively chase ETF fund inflows; macro risks have not completely dissipated. Entry should be timed based on market support and personal risk tolerance. Blindly following institutional data can easily lead to falling into the trap of repeated market fluctuations.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Someone inquired if CORE is a significant bearish factor this time.
My response: there will be a short-term impact, but the long term hinges on future developments.
Technical vulnerabilities naturally shake market confidence, and this instance also involves reward issuance. However, the project team has completed the hard fork and declared that over 150M excess CORE will be permanently destroyed.
#HammackBacksHike $TRUTH USDT (Swarm Network) – Perp
Technical Analysis
At 0.012388 with very low volatility. Price is coiling tightly. Expect expansion once it breaks the current micro-range.
Entry Point (EP)
Long: 0.01230 – 0.01240
Short: Break below 0.01215
Take Profit (TP)
Long: TP1 0.01280 | TP2 0.01320 | TP3 0.01380
Short: TP1 0.01190 | TP2 0.01150
Stop Loss (SL)
Long: 0.01205
Short: 0.01265The first night after the non-farm payrolls, the market gave the answer: strong employment data = higher interest rate pressure.
The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, far exceeding the expected 55,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. After the rate hike expectations heated up, $BTC fell from around $82.4K to about $79.7K, down 1.2% in 24 hours; $ETH dropped to about $2,458, down 1.9% in 24 hours.
Notably, funds did not fully withdraw during the price decline: BTC spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of $175 million yesterday, and ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $25.9 million. This indicates that currently macro pressure is outweighing ETF buying, rather than a full shift of institutional funds.
Key levels for the weekend:
$BTC support at 78.7K, only by reclaiming $80K can it challenge $81.4K;
ETF: support at $2,435—$2,400, with $2,500 turning back into resistance.
My judgment: short-term shifts from a strong breakout to consolidation digestion. Weekend liquidity is low, so it is not advisable to chase highs or sell lows; first, watch if the support can hold. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？