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#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
$SPCX isn’t out of the woods just because the first unlock held.
The next supply waves are still coming. 320M shares on Aug 20, roughly 700M in September, and another ~700M in October. The unlock process is split into nine stages and runs into 2027.
And shorts are still there. More than 250M shares remain short. If insiders start selling into the new supply, shorts get fresh ammo. If sellers fail to show up again, the squeeze can keep going.
That’s why I’m not getting too excited about the first 8% reaction. One unlock survived. The next few are a much bigger test.
At this price, $SPCX can look cheap or expensive depending on your time horizon. I’m not loading up here. Let the supply settle first.
No rush. No panic. Just watching the tape.
$SPCX $XSPCX Turmoil reignites in the Strait of Hormuz! 55 merchant ships have been forced to change course, affecting the trajectory of all global assets
The market has just taken a brief breather, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have once again become a major variable hanging over the market.
Currently, the situation around the strait is heating up, with 55 commercial vessels changing their original routes, and many oil tankers undergoing maritime inspections have been unable to navigate smoothly.
Do not underestimate this disruption in the shipping route. The Strait of Hormuz handles a large volume of global crude oil shipments by sea and is a vital vital source of global energy supply.
After ships are forced to detour, voyages lengthen, fuel consumption rises, and maritime war insurance costs rise, causing shipping costs to rise directly. Cost pressures are transmitted along the supply chain, pushing up prices of bulk commodities and industrial raw materials.
A complete market transmission chain
1. Strait Passage Obstructed → Concerns over crude oil supply are escalating, causing oil prices to fluctuate higher
2. Rising energy prices directly trigger a new round of inflation risks
3. Inflation risks are rising, and the market has begun lowering expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, even restarting speculation about rate hikes
4. The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, putting pressure on risk assets such as US tech and memory chip stocks like SNDK and cryptocurrencies
BTC and similar cryptocurrencies will not immediately plunge unilaterally due to channel news, but overall market risk aversion and expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy will influence capital risk appetite.
Key directions to watch going forward
At present, rather than simply focusing on the market's candlestick fluctuations, geography news has become the biggest hidden driver of the current market.
Afterwards, focus on three core indicators: Brent crude oil price fluctuations, the trend of the US dollar index, and market risk aversion.
If the situation in the strait continues to worsen, the shackles of inflation will once again bind risk assets, putting volatile pressure on memory chips, AI concept stocks, and the crypto market. #霍尔木兹协议未落地, oil price risks heating up again? $CL Many people are now waiting for Bitcoin's "final drop." 50,000, 40,000, 30,000...... Everyone can find a reason that seems very reasonable. Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, liquidity, cycles, on-chain data, whale sell-offs...... Each one sounds more professional than the last. But I've always felt that a particularly interesting question is: if it really drops to that level, would you really dare to buy? Just look back at 2022 and you'll know. In November 2022, FTX collapsed. Bitcoin continued to fall from near $20,000, hitting a low of around $15,500. Looking back, this was the true bottom of that bear market. But what was the environment like at the time? LUNA just passed away. 3AC crashed. Celsius and Voyager have been experiencing consecutive problems. FTX exploded again. BlockFi suspended withdrawals and subsequently went bankrupt. Genesis suspended redemptions. Gemini Earn was dragged in. Even DCG and GBTC have been repeatedly questioned by the market. What was the most popular market view at the time? And it wasn't over yet. FTX is just the beginning. More institutions are about to collapse later. Bitcoin will continue to fall. $10,000, $8,000, or even less. So a large amount of capital began to wait. Everyone thinks: "It's okay, I'm not copying now." "Wait for 10,000." "Wait for the last drop." "Wait until all the thunderbolts have exploded." And what happened? After $15,500, Bitcoin didn't give you that anymore黄金$XAU 一周已经涨了约 7%，现在冲到七周高位后开始滞涨；4H又正好顶在 4350—4370 的供应区。市场现在把避险故事讲得很满，反而要小心利好兑现。
更关键的是，中东局势未必只利多黄金$XAUT ——油价高企会推高通胀预期，利率如果因此继续维持高位，反而压制不生息的黄金。这个逻辑最近已经真实打压过金价。
我的计划：4350—4370做空
止损：4390
止盈：4300 / 4250
4370过不去，这里更像高潮，而不是起点。
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
The CPI data hasn't been released yet, but has the market already started betting on the answer?
CPI will not be released until Wednesday, but it appears the market has already started trading expectations early. Last week, the nonfarm payrolls cooled significantly, market expectations for a policy shift in September rose, US stocks $SPY continued to fluctuate, gold $XAU was strong, but $BTC was relatively weak.
Why? Because the market is trading not the CPI figure, but the difference between CPI and expectations. If core CPI falls short of expectations and rate cut expectations heat up, US stocks, gold, and BTC may continue to strengthen. But if it only meets expectations, caution is needed when positive factors materialize.
Last month's CPI release was a typical example: June CPI fell short of expectations, followed by short-term gains in US stocks and BTC, with BTC rising over 2% at one point. So this time, the market may have already priced in early.
My current personal position is that I won't chase rallies or cut losses before the CPI data is released, nor will I control my position and wait for the data to be realized. What really matters is not whether the data is good, but whether BTC and US stocks will still have funds willing to buy after the data is released.
Everyone knows the good news, but the real market is often hidden in expectations.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!$OKB 回调不必过度恐慌，仅是获利回吐，并非趋势反转
$OKB今天的下跌不用慌，属于上涨之后正常的获利盘兑现，趋势并没有被破坏。现阶段整体跟着大盘横盘震荡，等待周三CPI数据落地，目前还没有到统一止盈离场的节点。
站在全局看当下市场环境，大家对CPI抱有期待，但不宜过度乐观。并非盘口深度不足，而是大量增量资金流向美股，愿意进场承接加密市场的场外资金十分有限。
这种资金格局，造成一个很特别的盘面现象：上涨的时候缺少场外买盘接力，遇到利空也没有大规模踩踏出逃。该离场的筹码前期基本已经完成抛售，场内剩下大多是持仓不动的坚定持有者。除非出现突发黑天鹅击穿信仰，否则很难出现集中砸盘，这也是近期整体行情波动幅度偏小的核心原因。
回到OKB本身，现阶段平台没有释放重大利好催化，走势高度联动BTC。但自身盘口流动性相对单薄，波动会明显大于大饼。对比就能看得出来，周末BTC振幅仅1%，OKB波动已经达到3%，弹性更高，回撤也会更猛。
上周一轮上涨过后，本周大概率以横盘消化为主，方向选择权交给大盘宏观数据。
短线交易参考：回撤91附近可以小仓位试多，有效跌破88做好止损。
现货不用急于追高，等待一轮回调之后再考虑布局。
仅为盘面观察，不构成投资建议。
$OKBThe benchmark federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, coupled with the US annual inflation rate (CPI) falling to 3.5% in June. In early August 2026, global markets are immersed in a consolation atmosphere of steadily declining inflation and the Federal Reserve's imminent rate-cutting cycle. Major investment institutions have painted a perfect blueprint for a soft landing in their research reports, firmly believing that the torment of high interest rates is nearing its end and that the floodgates of liquidity could be reopened at any time. This appears to be a peaceful picture of macroeconomic tightening moving toward a moderate end.
However, behind this illusion of rate cuts woven by cooling inflation data, the minutes of the Fed's just-released July meeting delivered a rare 9-to-3 split, delivering a calm reversal: consensus within the decision-making committee has completely tightened, and hawkish forces are gathering at an unexpected pace.
Why is there such a severe 9-to-3 split among the Fed's policymakers despite inflation having already fallen to 3.5%?
The answer is actually written in the latest CPI data for July, which will be released this Wednesday (August 12).
Recently, I've been following the financial calendar, watching the sharp secondary volatility of major asset classes. I actually breathed a sigh of relief, thinking a rate cut in September was already a done deal. But after reviewing the minutes of the July meeting, where the three committee members unusually voted against rate hikes, I suddenly woke up: these three members, in a closed-door meeting, presented the latest data on supply chain frictions, labor market stickiness, and Middle East geopolitical and shipping premiums, strongly warning of a serious risk of a second rebound in inflation.
This led to the most intense debate in recent years in the decision-making room: although the majority barely maintained the current pause with 9 votes, the minority's hardline 3 votes forcibly shifted the tone of the September meeting (September 15-16) into a hawkish tug-of-war where "if Wednesday's CPI data falls short of expectations, rate hikes will be discussed directly."
Simply equating a pause in rate hikes with a "countdown to rate cuts" is the most common inertial optimism bias in the secondary market.
In the eyes of the divided Fed, there is no so-called "protecting asset prices," only the discipline of "defending the inflation anchor to the death." Once Wednesday's CPI data shows even a 0.1 percentage point rebound, the hawkish logic of the minority will instantly sweep over the majority, shattering all rate cut narratives.
The pause is just a brief pause before the storm. If Wednesday's data fails to provide a convincing downward trend in inflation, then the loose bull market we previously anticipated may just be a self-indulgent bubble.
What do you think about the rare 9-to-3 split within the Fed? With the July CPI data to be released this Wednesday, do you think the Fed will follow the call for rate cuts in September, or will the rise of hawks deliver an unexpected hike blow to the market? Feel free to leave your observations in the comments section.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved
The market is most eager to know three things right now: Is weak guidance a short-term conservative trend or is demand really weak? Can NAND supply and AI storage products support future growth? How will the 14 billion yuan buyback be spent?
Storage chips are the lifeblood of mining machines and AI computing power devices; NAND and SSD prices directly determine miners' hardware costs. If SanDisk's investor guidance is optimistic and storage prices stabilize, miners will have to endure tough times. Conversely, if guidance remains cautious, storage prices may loosen, allowing miners to breathe a sigh of relief.
But no matter how things go, the overall logic of the storage sector hasn't changed—AI demand is still running, and the HBM supply gap hasn't been filled. Short-term fluctuations are all noise; the key question is whether SanDisk can restore market confidence on August 13.
Personally, I feel the trend is still volatile and bullish. It depends on whether tonight's opening will open high and then move up high, or if it opens high and then moves lower On August 10, the token spending price index had fallen to 1.1635, continuing to decline since peaking at the end of May (high of 2.0651 on May 28), with a cumulative decline of 43.7% over two months. This price has fallen below 1.2446 at the end of 2025, officially hitting a new low for the year and marking a return to the starting point of this expansion cycle for AI computing power.
Note: Selling tokens is currently a key source of monetization in the AI industry. Its price is one of the signals for measuring current computing power supply and demand. If token prices remain high, cloud service providers will have incentives to purchase more GPUs and DRAM memory and expand data centers. Otherwise, AI companies should be cautious of "consumption downgrade," which has become a leading indicator for the end of this hardware frenzy cycle. Token price data comes from top global AI models such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek $BTC Brothers, a whale is quietly accumulating $SOL , and it’s worth watching. 👀
Yujin spotted a whale buying ~500K $SOL in batches around an average of $76 using TWAP, minimizing market impact. That looks more like strategic accumulation than short-term speculation.
Meanwhile, $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs are also seeing net inflows. This could signal capital rotating back toward major assets after the meme-coin phase.
Still, don’t overread one whale. The ~$38M purchase is small relative to SOL’s daily volume, so it won’t dictate the trend.
For now, treat it as a supporting bullish signal, not a guarantee. If you’re underexposed to major coins, consider gradual positioning rather than going all-in.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases Back at the desk, I sat down and casually opened a few data pages. I didn't have any urgent matters to handle today, so I slowly scrolled through the various chains to see if there were any signals worth watching.
$BTC In the latter half of last night, I climbed a small segment, about $800 in the market. The momentum isn't strong, but it's been moving steadily. Most buy orders come from the spot trading depth of two compliant exchanges, with small volume and evenly spaced. It doesn't look like retail investors are buying, but more like some institution is taking orders as planned. However, this level of rally doesn't say much in the current structure—neither volume has increased nor driven overall market sentiment, at most it's shifting within a range.
$ETH Here, gas fees are still so low they can be ignored, and the mainnet is as quiet as a TV with its sound off. But today, I observed a phenomenon—the deposits on several major L2 cross-chain bridges have slightly increased. Although the amounts aren't large, the timing is quite consistent. Maybe someone is doing cross-chain arbitrage, or maybe it's just a major user spreading their funds across different chains in preparation. I made a note and continued reading.
$SOL's price has moved in sync with $BTC, with slightly larger fluctuations but consistent direction. The number of active addresses on the network is flat compared to a few days ago, with no obvious change. An NFT project suddenly saw its floor price rise today. The volume was small, and buy orders were concentrated on a few addresses, making it look like the project team was maintaining the price themselves.
There was some activity in DeFi today, worth a closer look.
$AAVE's total borrowing volume is slowly climbing, especially for a stablecoin pool that just launched, with capital utilization nearly full. Several addresses with complex paths have appeared among borrowers, borrowing assets from $AAVE to another protocol to become LPs, then collateralizing LP certificates to a third protocol to continue borrowing. This nested doll-style operation is extremely sensitive to interest rates, usually only professional teams operate like this; retail investors can't afford it. Their actions show they believe the current interest rate environment can still provide positive returns.
$MKR Another buyback today, not a large amount, already the third time this month. The governance vote was still overwhelmingly approved; the mindset of this project's token holders is truly steady—no matter how much the outside world fluctuates, buybacks are needed, voting is like a group of people building a road they firmly believe will eventually open to traffic.
$UNI's V3 pool saw several stable trading pairs add liquidity today, with the added positions scattered across several price ranges, not a centralized market-making strategy. It's more like long-term holders putting coins into the pool to earn fees, with no plans to withdraw in the short term.
$LINK's oracle call volume data is out, about 10% higher than the same period last week. The calls are mainly concentrated on a few derivatives protocols, which have recently seen an increase in open interest, and on-chain leveraged trading has become active again. Some people are using real money to express their judgments: although the overall volume is still not as high as during the bull market, the trend is upward.
In the RWA sector, $ONDO has a single address continuing its small-scale buying rhythm, and today marks the tenth consecutive day. Each time it's several hundred, with regular intervals, like a pre-programmed setup. This type of regular investment buying usually doesn't have short-term gaming intent; it's more like a medium- to long-term allocation.
$ENS Today's domain transaction price didn't fluctuate much, but the number of transactions was several more than yesterday. One buyer for a three-digit domain was a new wallet containing only this $ENS domain and a bit of $ETH, as if someone had just entered the market and snatched the domain first.
The L2 sector today is characterized by fragmentation. $ARB's daily active addresses have dropped to recent lows, but on one $ARB, the deposit volume of perpetual contract protocols suddenly increased by nearly 30%, with several of the deposit addresses being veteran players of the $AVAX ecosystem. It's like the same group has switched platforms and continued their strategy campaign. $OP the ecosystem is generally quiet, with no similar abnormalities.
$STRK The price continues to fall, and community discussions have become so minimal that they can be ignored. At times like this, two situations are most likely to occur—either the darkest part before dawn, or the beginning of a complete loss of vitality. The difference is whether someone is quietly picking up shares at the bottom. I looked at the on-chain data; over the past week, a few new addresses have indeed been slowly buying, but the volume is not large enough to call it a bottom.
$SUI, $SEI, $APT are still following the old path today: each high drops lower than the last, sell orders are pressed down at various price levels, and buyers withdraw after a quick strike. Institutional positions have been flowing out for weeks, with chips dispersed to smaller holders. Small holders are usually more likely to sell chips in panic, so this diversification process may continue for some time.
$DYDX Today I saw an operation from an exchange with a moderate amount. After withdrawal, it was deposited into a wallet with no historical records. It could be a turnover or a preparation for some on-chain activity.
$CRV and $CAKE are still the same, with low voting participation and quiet communities. However, $CRV's stake slightly increased today, though less than 1%, but it's a small bump in this continuously declining curve. Maybe a long-term holder has locked back the previously unlocked coins.
There are also some projects hanging mid-stage, $TIA, $INJ, $PENDLE, $FXS, $CVX. These projects are still operating normally with technical routes and teams, but overall market sentiment is weak, and they don't have enough capital to support them like $BTC. So prices keep grinding there, until holders' patience runs out or new buyers enter the market.
After organizing the flow of funds, the obvious net buying today is still the same old faces: $ENA, $PEPE, $ONDO, $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENS, $LDO, $RNDR. The obvious net selling also showed little change: $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $SEI, $APT, $DYDX, $CRV, $CAKE.
Before shutting down the computer, I glanced at $BTC's daily chart, which closed with a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow, and trading volume was flat compared to a few days ago. This candlestick pattern doesn't have any special significance in a big cycle; it's just the market saying—'It's over today, let's talk about it tomorrow.'
Alright, let's talk about it tomorrow. A green candle does not mean the entire market is improving 🚨
This rally looks impressive, but beneath the surface, liquidity choices are becoming increasingly cautious.
Funds are not flowing into all altcoins but are rotating among a small group of winners, with most projects quietly losing relative strength.
The data actually makes it very clear:
📉 Open interest has started to cool
📊 Trading volume remained stable
This indicates that the market is in a state of disciplined holding rather than a full-blown celebration.
Traders no longer chase every impulse but concentrate their funds on the patterns with the highest confidence. Smart money is carefully selecting, not blindly casting a net.
🟢 Assets are attracting new liquidity
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 Core coins leading the market
$BTC — The largest liquid magnet
$ETH — The favorite of institutional funds
$SOL — A leader in high Beta Layer 1
$DATA — AI infrastructure narrative
$WLD — AI and digital identity track
$HYPE — A thermometer of risk appetite
$ZEC and $DOGE — a barometer of retail investor sentiment
🔴 Projects still struggling to attract funds
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
The biggest advantage of this market isn't predicting when the next big bullish candlestick will come, but clearly seeing where the capital is flowing.
When capital becomes picky, relative strength matters more than hype stories. The strongest trends attract more liquidity, while weak projects may continue to underperform even when the market rises.
During this phase of the cycle, there's no need to chase every green candle; just quietly follow the direction of the funds.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #Web3绿色蜡烛并不等于整个市场都在变好 🚨
这轮上涨看起来气势很足，但水面之下，流动性的选择变得越来越谨慎。
资金并没有涌向所有山寨币，而是在一小批赢家之间轮动，大部分项目仍在悄悄失去相对强度。
数据其实讲得很清楚：
📉 未平仓合约开始降温
📊 交易量保持平稳
这说明市场正处于一种有纪律的持仓状态，而不是全面狂欢的情绪。
交易者不再追逐每一次脉冲，而是把资金集中在那些置信度最高的形态上。聪明钱正在精挑细选，而不是盲目撒网。
🟢 正在吸引新增流动性的资产
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 引领市场的核心币种
$BTC — 最大的流动性磁石
$ETH — 机构资金的心头好
$SOL — 高Beta Layer 1龙头
$DATA — AI基础设施叙事
$WLD — AI与数字身份赛道
$HYPE — 风险偏好的温度计
$ZEC 与 $DOGE — 散户情绪的晴雨表
🔴 仍在挣扎吸纳资金的项目
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
这轮行情最大的优势，不在于预测下一根大阳线什么时候来，而在于看清资金究竟流向哪里。
当资本开始变得挑剔，相对强度比炒作故事更重要。最强的趋势会吸引更多流动性，而那些疲软的项目即便在大盘上涨时，也可能继续跑输。
在这个阶段的周期里，不必追逐每一根绿烛，请安静地跟住资金的方向就好。
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #Web3Focusing on foundational infrastructure construction: review of ALD/ACO nodes and ecosystem planning
As the Web3 ecosystem evolves toward real assets and long-term applications, more and more teams are shifting their focus from short-term narratives to underlying on-chain infrastructure and the accumulation of ecosystem public chains.
Here is a summary of the ALD/ACO team's recently publicly released long-term plans and milestone actions:
🔹 Infrastructure and ecosystem construction
The construction of public chains and trading platform ecosystems continues to advance, and the underlying module architectures such as decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are gradually being improved, aiming to provide a more robust matching and clearing environment for future on-chain asset liquidity.
🔹 Partner node network launched
The first batch of partner nodes has officially opened for recruitment, with a limited-time tiered incentive mechanism (the first 1,000 participants will receive 800 USDT, with tiers increasing as the network expands).
🔹 Community incentives and empowerment of rights
Referral Incentives: Community promotion rewards are 30% of the node amount (subject to the latest official announcement rules).
New entry benefits: including partner node qualifications for exchanges, ALD on-chain airdrops, and related core community governance and dividend benefits.
💡 Summary and Reflection:
Whether it's scaling Layer 1/2 infrastructure or integrating with real-world asset (RWA) value logic, the core of long-term projects remains the smooth delivery of underlying architecture and the establishment of community autonomy networks. Record nodes and ecosystem advancement nodes, and continue to observe the pace of roadmap implementation going forward.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is only a compilation of public information and personal observation records and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, so please remain rational and manage risks well. DYOR（Do Your Own Research）。 绿色蜡烛并不等于整个市场都在变好 🚨
这轮上涨看起来气势很足，但水面之下，流动性的选择变得越来越谨慎。
资金并没有涌向所有山寨币，而是在一小批赢家之间轮动，大部分项目仍在悄悄失去相对强度。
数据其实讲得很清楚：
📉 未平仓合约开始降温
📊 交易量保持平稳
这说明市场正处于一种有纪律的持仓状态，而不是全面狂欢的情绪。
交易者不再追逐每一次脉冲，而是把资金集中在那些置信度最高的形态上。聪明钱正在精挑细选，而不是盲目撒网。
🟢 正在吸引新增流动性的资产
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 引领市场的核心币种
$BTC — 最大的流动性磁石
$ETH — 机构资金的心头好
$SOL — 高Beta Layer 1龙头
$DATA — AI基础设施叙事
$WLD — AI与数字身份赛道
$HYPE — 风险偏好的温度计
$ZEC 与 $DOGE — 散户情绪的晴雨表
🔴 仍在挣扎吸纳资金的项目
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
这轮行情最大的优势，不在于预测下一根大阳线什么时候来，而在于看清资金究竟流向哪里。
当资本开始变得挑剔，相对强度比炒作故事更重要。最强的趋势会吸引更多流动性，而那些疲软的项目即便在大盘上涨时，也可能继续跑输。
在这个阶段的周期里，不必追逐每一根绿烛，请安静地跟住资金的方向就好。
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #Web3After work, outperform colleagues on the market, and at the same time avoid a critical hit. Others panic, I'm greedy; others break even, I recover my health.
On my way home from work today, I checked the market and $BTC closed near 64,938. In 24 hours, it dropped 0.02%, but the trading volume was ridiculously high—down +135.54% from the previous 24 hours 👀
With this kind of volume and price, to be honest, I smelled the scent before the market changed. But my hands were empty today, so I'll watch the show first.
😏 Some people say I was bad at Tao Kong Ta Tai Tai, but I don't care.
As someone who squeezes into the subway every day to work, the most important thing in the trading system isn't technical analysis, but position management. Who doesn't know support and resistance levels?
The question is whether you dare to actually make a move there. Blindly betting everything is a spender; someone like me, who only loses 5% and starts feeling sorry, is the normal person.
However, today's data is worth pondering. The Bollinger Band bandwidth has shrunk to 0.69%, with prices stuck between 64,826 and 65,490, resembling the quiet before a tug-of-war.
The funding rate is 0.0062%, which isn't expensive but not very tempting. Many people chase after volume increase, but the dumbest ones are precisely chasing the "post-volume direction." A data point that many people overlook:
This weekend, BTC had a daily trading volume of about $5.9 billion
The average workday is about 9 billion USD
Weekend volume shrank by about 35%
What does shrinking volume over the weekend mean?
📌 Price fluctuations have decreased
Low volume indicates that neither buyer nor seller is active
BTC's trading range today is only 64,827-65,474
The amplitude was less than 1%, a typical weekend with reduced volume and sideways trading
📌 False breakouts are likely to occur
With low liquidity, a small amount of capital can drive prices
You might see BTC suddenly surge to 65,800
But this is not genuine buying; it is a false illusion caused by low liquidity
If you catch up, you're likely to get trapped
📌 Monday's opening is crucial
After the Asian session opened on Monday, institutional funds returned
There is usually a wave of directional selection
Historical statistics:
After a narrow volume sideways movement over the weekend,
The probability of a breakout upward at Monday's opening is about 55%.
The probability of a downward breakout is about 30%.
The probability of continuing to move sideways is about 15%.
Current market signals:
• BTC is oscillating narrowly around 65,000
• ETF net inflows remained positive last week
• Fear index 30: sentiment is bearish but capital is overflowing
• SOL is strengthening independently, indicating that there are local opportunities for altcoins
My judgment:
On Monday, it is highly likely to test 66,000 upward
But if there is no ramp-up cooperation,
Near 66,000, resistance will be encountered and a pullback
A real breakthrough will come after Wednesday's CPI data
Weekends are for observation and planning, not for trading.
$BTC 重大消息已出！利好？
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
$BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
$ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
$SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
$TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
$HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
$DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度A spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry today sent the latest signal regarding negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz: reopening the strait is not just about reaching an agreement with Oman; it also requires the United States to provide compensation and lift the blockade. The spokesperson said that the framework of the agreement with Oman includes an arrangement to charge passing vessels for maritime services, which conflicts with the U.S. side's insistence on a "no toll" stance. Moreover, Iran is not currently negotiating directly with Washington but is exchanging information through intermediaries, indicating that the talks are still in an indirect communication phase. Three major obstacles to negotiations: U.S. blockade not lifted: Iran insists that reopening the straits must be done on the condition that the U.S. lifts the blockade on Iranian ports and pays compensation. According to Russian media citing U.S. officials, the U.S. plans to lift the blockade after reaching a navigation agreement, but Iran emphasizes that this must be a prerequisite. The "service fee" divide is hard to bridge: Iran proposed charging a maritime service fee for passing vessels, while U.S. Vice President Vance had previously made it clear that Iran would not charge tolls. This divide currently has no resolution. Lack of direct communication channels between the US and Iran: Iran has clearly stated that it is "currently not negotiating with Washington," and is only exchanging information through intermediaries. This means core disagreements can only be coordinated through indirect channels, and negotiation efficiency faces bottlenecks. One noteworthy change: U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent previously stated that the Strait of Hormuz would "gradually lose strategic importance," citing that more and more energy transport would bypass the strait via underground pipelines and land facilities. If pipeline construction catches up to the expected pace, Iran's long-term pricing power over the strait could be weakened within years, which would profoundly change the situationA net inflow of $853.5 million for the week was attributed to a $130 million wallet vulnerability. This inference method is problematic.
First, present the available numbers.
◎ Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $853.5 million, and including Ether products, total reached $1.1 billion.
◎ On August 5, single-day inflows totaled $244 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $197 million.
◎ Coldcard wallet vulnerability involved a $130 million theft.
There is a theory in the market that after the hacking incident, funds recorded inflows for several consecutive days, so the risk of self-custody drove money into the ETF. This theory holds chronological but does not hold up causally.
There are three reasons.
1️⃣ The magnitude is off. The stolen amount was $130 million, with a weekly inflow of $853.5 million. Even if all the stolen funds were placed in the ETF the next day, it wouldn't explain most of it.
2️⃣ The entity is wrong. ETF subscriptions are actions between institutions and brokerage accounts, following compliance channels. The group using Coldcard for cold storage and the group buying IBIT are basically not the same batch of money.
3️⃣ Missing comparison. To prove this causality, you have to explain how much inflow would have been without this loophole. No one has given this figure.
Moreover, treating a single event as a switch for capital flow is a narrative-driven explanation, not data-driven. Its characteristic is undeniable: inflows are called risk-off reassignments, outflows are seen as undermining confidence, and both outcomes can be reversed. A model that can explain everything is as good as having no model at all.
And the issue of concentration is more worth watching than attribution. Out of the 244 million yuan in a single day, 197 million comes from a single issuer. This represents so-called institutional demand, but what is actually observed is the subscription channels for a few major products, not a fragmented buyer group. This structural fact can be quantified and doesn't need any story.
So, this week's inflow numbers are facts, but the causal chain hanging it on the Coldcard vulnerability is not $BTC $SPCX
这段时间明显就是多头强行逼空的走势，早在8月6日解锁之前，清一色看空，加上之前足足跌了一个月，积攒了大量空单，就好比装满火药的炸药桶，只差一点火苗就能彻底引爆。
近期一连串利好接连落地，持续给行情加温：
1Terafab芯片工厂落地，设计理念超前，长期想象空间拉满
2Argus机构上调评级至买入，给出160目标价位（仅机构参考，不代表一定会到）
3消息传出Cursor六百亿规模相关交易，本周迎来交割节点
4木头姐再度出手，斥资1320万美元加仓布局
但接下来8月20日又迎来新一轮筹码解锁，不能无脑一路看多。这次解锁体量远小于8月6日那次，市场恐慌情绪大概率温和很多。老薛判断这波冲高大概到145附近就差不多到顶了。我自己成本大概160，打算开等量空单，把亏损锁在140区间，等回落企稳之后平掉空单，再等下一轮反弹慢慢回本。
当然这只是我预想的方案，谁也说不准会不会再度猛拉、大肆收割空单，后续只能跟着盘面来灵活应对。
另外留意周一收盘后，RKLB即将公布财报，这次财报能直接看清太空板块，是实打实基本面走强，还是单纯短期题材炒作，很大概率会跟着板块一起联动波动。$ETH Why can't prices rise—EIP-8363 panic is a 'shakeout tool' for Dog Farms!
The EIP-8363 proposal is the biggest culprit. Aave's founder and ether.fi CEO publicly opposed it, and the community worried that the staking yield would drop from 2.6% to 1.2%. But this proposal is still in the draft stage—it hasn't passed, isn't scheduled, and hasn't included any upgrades. Dog Farm is using community panic to repeatedly shake prices between 1900 and 1944—those who chase long positions get stuck at 1925, those who cut losses miss out at 1900, taking advantage of both sides.
Why can't it fall—ETFs and whales are holding the bottom:
· ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with net inflows of $195 million in the first three days of this week
· Whales accumulated funds to a record high of 19.6 million ETH
· BlackRock is advancing RWA tokenization on Ethereum
With balanced bullish and bearish forces, the price stays flat here.If someone had told me three years ago that one day people would hand over their coins to BlackRock because it was "not safe to keep safe," I probably would have laughed out loud.
But Coldcard had a loophole, the money was moved, and then the money flowed into the ETF. IBIT took the biggest share.
Let me joke about myself: I've been chanting 'not your keys, not your coins' for years, and I say it more loudly than anyone. I copied my mnemonic phrase onto a piece of paper and pressed it under the keyboard, saying, 'If you put it here, I can see it every day.' The real risk isn't the hacker, it's that I move.
So my view on this matter is—when it comes to security, retail investors and institutions have never been on the same paper.
Retail investors want "not to lose it." Institutions want "someone to compensate if you lose it, someone to sue." Both of these things seem like safety, but in reality, they lack a legal department. ETFs don't sell returns or convenience; they sell shifting responsibility. You sign a name, and someone writes a statement for you when something goes wrong. Self-custody sells sovereignty, but the price of sovereignty is that you become a security, an auditor, or a customer service representative. If something happens in the middle of the night, you can only blame yourself.
What I disagree with is the causality: once a safety incident occurs, money flows into ETFs, which sounds too smooth. Fear is at most an accelerator, not a cause. Many people have long wanted to surrender, just needing a decent excuse—"See, it's not safe to hold it yourself." When people say this, they breathe a sigh of relief, not fear.
And this isn't about security, it's about safety. The history of custody incidents is thick enough to serve as a pillow; the exchange crash volumes aren't even finished. So what is truly exchanged is: do you trust yourself, or do you trust the system? Both sides will have problems; the only difference is who handles the mess afterward.
There is no standard answer. Those willing to be security guards themselves, don't mock those who buy ETFs for being lazy; ETF buyers shouldn't pretend to solve the security problem themselves; you're just someone else solving it for you.
I want to ask—when was the last time I checked my backup?
$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
我是老高。周三CPI比非农重要得多——非农把9月加息概率从60%砸到40%，但最终拍板的是CPI。
先看预期：
整体CPI年率预期3.4%（前3.5%），核心年率2.5%（前2.6%），核心月率0.2%，整体月率0.1%。克利夫兰联储模型给的整体年率约3.46%，月率0.19%，核心月率0.16%。
通胀整体会降到2021年春以来最低，但核心粘性才是命门。二手车环比预计跌2%，住房通胀放缓，曼海姆指数暴跌——这些都是结构性压通胀的力量。但能源反弹是火药桶，油价一上80，通胀预期分分钟掉头。
CPI三个剧本，BTC怎么走：
· 偏弱（核心年率＜2.5%或核心月率＜0.2%）
加息概率再降，美元跌，美债收益率下行。BTC突破65500概率最大，放量站上就追多，止损64500下方，目标67000-67500，强突破看68500-69000。
· 符合预期（核心年率≈2.5%）
冲高回落，买预期卖事实。BTC在64000-65500区间震荡，有仓位的65000上方减仓，等方向明确，不追不杀。
· 偏强（核心年率＞2.6%或核心月率＞0.3%）
加息概率重回50%+，美元强，美债收益率上，BTC回踩63500-64000。若叠加油价反弹，更危险。放量跌破64000就空，止损65000上方，目标63000-62500，破位看61500。
操作上：
现在BTC在64800磨盘，65000摸了好几次没放量过。CPI就是那个引爆点。数据前别重仓赌，等落地再看盘面怎么反应——方向是CPI给的，不是盘面自己选的。止损挂好，数据出来再动手。
老高说完了。你细品。$BTC $ETH $BICO
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $BICO Appeared on OKEx's gainers list three times
$0.044 $BICO, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BICO fell from the ATH of $21 to 0.011, a drop of 99.9%. Short sellers made a fortune
Look at the surface first: from hell to heaven, then back to the human world
At the end of July, it hit a historic low of 0.011. Aster DEX and AlphaX launched perpetual contracts, combined with short liquidations, surging over 300% in one week, at one point reaching 0.08-0.09. On August 10, a single-day pullback of 30%-40% marked high volume selling pressure, a typical profit-taking after listing enthusiasm
Near 0.04 is the Fib 61.8% retracement level, with increased trading volume and fierce bullish and bearish battles
First thing: This is not a rise driven by fundamentals, but a rise where bears are being squeezed out completely
$BICO fell from an ATH of $21 to 0.011, a drop of 99.9%. Short sellers made a fortune. And then? As soon as perpetual contracts launched, short positions were slashed out before they could even be sold
Within a week, it surged over 300%, with trading volume at one point several times its market value. There were no major positive signs; it was purely a bloody liquidation in the derivatives market
The second thing: the fundamentals are clean but also fragile
Biconomy is a multi-chain account abstraction infrastructure, invested in by Coinbase Ventures and Binance Launchpad. Total supply is about 1 billion, circulation is nearly full, with no large unlock pressure, which is considered clean among altcoins
But it fell from $21 to 0.011, a decline of 99.9%
Its current market value is only tens of millions of dollars
Protocol revenue? It's still too early and not worth watching
The top hundred wallets hold highly concentrated positions; even a move by major players can cause prices to fluctuate by 20%
Third matter: Technical situation has reached a "bullish and bearish do-or-die situation"
Daily ATR (Average True Volatility) is extremely high, and derivatives trading far exceeds spot trading. Every candlestick is a long upper and lower shadow, a typical high-volatility game
At 0.044, neither bull nor bear has any way out. Upward, breaking 0.05 will retest 0.08; downward, breaking below 0.038 will mean a return below 0.03 $ACT 三股暗流，全是在割散户！
阴谋一：RSI 56不温不火，狗庄在“慢慢吸筹”！ 不像BICO/CAP那些RSI干到90+的暴力拉盘，ACT的RSI才56，价格涨了14%但RSI没超买，说明这波上涨不是狗庄在暴力拉高出货，而是有人在慢慢吸筹。狗庄还没开始暴力拉盘，真正的行情可能还没来。
阴谋二：OBV在回升，资金在悄悄流入！ OBV从-32.87亿回升到-27.43亿，卖压在减少，资金在缓慢流入。这不是狗庄在暴力拉盘，是聪明钱在底部慢慢收筹码。
阴谋三：94%已流通，没有天量解锁抛压！ ACT最大的优势就是94.82%已经流通了，不像AEON、GRVT那些80%还没解锁的币，随时可能被狗庄砸盘。拉起来不需要担心解锁抛压，这是ACT相对其他新币最大的优势。The one-hour volume increase fake move was gone—volume shrank back to -57.6%, $BTC still lingering at 65,000.
The "volume recovery" in the previous hour was just an hourly illusion: it jumped from -78% to -23%, and many saw it as a sign of a market reversal; In this hour, volume shrank back again, the price remained unchanged, and the breadth rolled back from 8:7 to 7:8 net red.
Intraday trading was even weaker: GRVT Dragon 24H cooled from +27.5% to +26.4%, no longer accelerating; BICO's discarded shares fell from -10.6% to -15.6%. Neither strong nor weak could hold up.
Funding +0.0089% Neutral, OI 106,900, FG 30 Fear—Sentiment hasn't collapsed, and no one wants to rush in. Stagnant water.
Reusable framework: In dead markets, identify "fake moves" and look at two key points—(1) Single-hour volume increase is not a reversal; you need two consecutive hourly candlesticks with volume increase and price to recognize it; (2) Repeated broad sideways jumps (9:5→8:7→7:8) means every "rebound" fails, so don't chase.
Same for BTC/ETH/altfew: before the volume breakout, 65,000 is the central point, not the starting point.
Which side will you pick in this round? A lies flat and is a real signal for volume expansion; B is buying the dip now — comment on your choice, and include your reasons.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
#OKX星球 $BTC $GRVT #缩量陷阱 #假动作识别$GRVT 在负费率与轧空推升下两天反弹40%，RSI快速攀升至83进入超买区。仅11.43%的流通筹码放大盘面弹性，做市商0.29附近的成本曝光则让高位抛压隐患陡增。价格若在0.38上方遭遇缩量与长上影，极易因为衍生品追高力量不足引发深度回撤。后续需观察0.31支撑区间的成交量与资金费率变化。
#伯克希尔结束净卖出，重启大额配置 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？Would you adjust your crypto positions just because of the rise and fall of US tech stocks?
Yes, and I do it all the time.
Don't be fooled by many people saying Bitcoin has nothing to do with US stocks—I don't believe it anyway. Last year, I was fooled by the idea of 'independent market' several times. Even though Bitcoin was doing well, the Nasdaq crashed and dragged it down. I foolishly held on and lost all my profits.
Later, I learned my lesson, and now I play like this:
If Nasdaq futures drop more than one point before the market opens, I'll reduce my position and take a look, no matter how hard the Bitcoin is at the time. I've been scammed too many times; I'd rather make less than hold on.
In the first hour after the US stock market opens, I basically don't trade. That period is the most volatile, and big players often take advantage of the opening to dump or push the market. I'll watch the show first and wait until it's over.
If the S&P falls for three consecutive days, I'll wipe out most of the altcoins outright. Crypto has poor liquidity; when the market is bad, funds shrink into Bitcoin and ETH, leaving the altcoins bottomless when they fall.
Some say it's easy to miss out, and yes, I have missed out. But compared to missing out, I'm more afraid of being trapped. I can accept making less money, but not losing a big amount.
But I have to make one thing clear—when US stocks fall, I run; when they rise, I don't necessarily chase them. Bitcoin now has its own rhythm; ETF capital flows and on-chain data are sometimes more effective than US stocks. US stocks are like alarm bells—if they go off, I pay attention, but if they don't, I rush in.
What about you? When the US stock market falls, will you run away? Comment below, let me see if I'm the only one this cowardly 👇
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard A Major Signal from Berkshire: Is Risk-On Back?
After years of building a record cash pile, Berkshire Hathaway has delivered one of the strongest signals that market conditions may be shifting. In Q2 2026, under CEO Greg Abel, Berkshire ended a 14-quarter streak of net stock selling, deployed nearly $20 billion into equities, increased share buybacks, and expanded investments in high-quality companies, including Alphabet. Its cash reserves also declined, signaling a shift from a defensive stance to actively seeking long-term opportunities.
For Wall Street, this is an important vote of confidence. When one of the world's most influential value investors begins deploying capital again, it often suggests current valuations have become more attractive. The move could support large-cap technology, AI leaders, and the broader S&P 500 if institutional capital continues rotating into equities. At the same time, Berkshire's substantial cash position shows the company remains cautious about interest rates, geopolitical risks, and the global economic outlook.
While Berkshire has no direct exposure to cryptocurrencies, its renewed appetite for equities could still influence digital assets. A stronger risk-on environment has historically benefited higher-risk assets such as $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. If this shift coincides with sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve, and resilient U.S. economic data, institutional capital could increasingly flow into crypto.
Investors should now watch three key catalysts: Wall Street's response to Berkshire's buying, continued ETF inflows into $BTC and $ETH, and upcoming U.S. economic data alongside Federal Reserve guidance. If these factors align, they could reinforce a broader risk-on environment and provide a powerful tailwind for both U.S. equities and the cryptocurrency market.
#BerkshireStartsBuying
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#BIP110ForkStalls
$BTC
$ETH $GRVT What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short-term: RSI 83 is extremely unstable, either continuing to short to 0.40-0.42 (low probability), or sharply pulling back to 0.31-0.35 (high probability). Referring to the script of the previous four coins: after RSI 90+, it drops 20-30% in one day. GRVT's RSI 83 may not have reached 90 yet, but it has already entered the danger zone.
Mid-term: GRVT's fundamentals are solid—former Goldman Sachs/Meta team, ZKsync architecture, TVL over 100 million, monthly trading volume 51.6 billion. But 11.43% circulating, unlock on August 29, FDV is eight times market cap—three major obstacles are pressing down. If this pullback stabilizes and increases volume in the 0.31-0.32 range, GRVT may form a mid-term bottom; If it fails, the lower level is 0.27-0.28.
The final heartfelt words:
GRVT is 0.363 today, a 40% rebound in two days, RSI 83, market makers unfolded, circulation only 11.43%—all four warnings are red flags. The script for the previous four coins: BICO RSI 99→ down 28%, MUBARAK RSI 97→ pullback, SHELL RSI 97→ pullback, CAP RSI 93→ currently correcting. Today is the fifth one—GRVT RSI 83. Dog Broker pushed the RSI to this level not to make you profit, but to attract retail investors chasing the highs to buy in. Those with bottom positions should reduce positions immediately; those with short positions should hold back. Wait until it pulls back to 0.31-0.32 before considering acting! Remember, living long in the crypto world is ten thousand times more important than making more! Meeting adjourned!🚨 ETF INFLOWS ARE BACK — BUT I’M NOT CALLING THIS A BREAKOUT YET.
ETF inflows returning while $BTC holds near $65.2K is definitely constructive.
But here’s what stands out to me:
The response across $BTC, $ETH and $SOL has been relatively muted.
That looks more like absorption than a fresh momentum phase.
For now, I’d treat this as stabilization, not breakout confirmation.
The bigger issue is still macro.
Fed expectations remain highly sensitive to CPI, while the Hormuz situation is still unresolved, keeping macro risk as the stronger short-term driver.
My bias is cautiously positive — but only as long as spot demand continues after the initial ETF inflow headline fades.
The headline is bullish. The price reaction is what matters next. 👀
Not advice, just analysis.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $GRVT The logic behind GRVT's surge—three major forces, Dog Farms Leverage the Momentum to Squeeze Short Sellers!
First, exposure of market maker costs was the trigger! Today, ZachXBT released market maker position data—market makers opened positions in the 0.29-0.30 range, with costs around 0.29. Dog dealers are pulling up prices to help market makers break even, allowing retail investors chasing high prices to enter and buy in.
Second, the bears were targeted and surged! Previously, GRVT was extremely crowded with short sellers, with a negative funding rate depth. Today's 25% rally has left the bears pinned down, forced to close and cover positions, further pushing the price higher—the classic "short squeeze flywheel."
Third, the "value recovery" after many exchanges launched! After GRVT's TGE on July 30, nearly 10 exchanges including OKX, Binance, Bybit, Gate, KuCoin, and Coinbase launched intensively. Liquidity was thin in the early days of new coin listings, and Dog Farm could pull a big bullish candle with a small amount of capital. 🚨 THE BIGGEST CRYPTO ADOPTION MIGHT HAPPEN WITHOUT PEOPLE EVEN REALIZING IT.
Samsung plans to add stablecoin accounts, overseas transfers, and payment functions to Samsung Wallet in some countries this year.
And naturally, the first reaction from many people was:
Bullish for $USDC. Bullish for $CRCL. Bullish for crypto.
But the bigger story is what this could mean for adoption.
If Samsung really integrates stablecoins directly into its native phone wallet, users might only see “transfer” and “payment.”
They won’t need to understand blockchain.
Just like people use bank cards every day without studying how the banking and clearing system works.
That’s the real path to large-scale stablecoin adoption.
It’s not about educating billions of people to learn how to use crypto.
It’s about letting billions of people start using crypto without even realizing they are.
That’s the part that gets me excited. 👀
But there’s an important caveat:
This is still just a plan.
Samsung has not announced the first batch of countries, which stablecoins will be supported, or exactly when the feature will go live.
So for now, it’s a major potential catalyst — not yet a confirmed rollout.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 瑞典上市比特币储备公司 H100 Group 刚刚完成一笔引人注目的增持。 据官方公告，H100 Group 以均价 62,900 美元 的价格收购了 2,455.4 枚 BTC，公司总持仓因此增至 3,506 枚。 这笔交易的特别之处在于它的“支付方式”。H100 是用自己公司的股份完成支付的，没有动用现金。这不仅是欧洲公共比特币股权领域规模最大的并购交易，也是全球公开市场首例“以比特币换比特币”的并购。 这次收购完成后，H100 股东的每股“聪数”提升了约 5%，即从每持有 1 股对应 288 聪变为对应 303 聪。这体现出其以“每股含币量”为核心估值逻辑的公司策略。 在 Strategy 连续减持、巨鲸矿工持续向交易所充币的背景下，欧洲市场的一家上市储备公司正在用反向操作——以 62,900 美元的均价完成比特币换股并购——表达它对当前价位的判断。 $BTC $ETH $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 💰 Money is flowing into crypto — so why isn’t $BTC TC moving higher?
Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $BTC 865M in net inflows, one of the strongest weekly inflow figures in nearly 15 weeks.
BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributed around $694M.
Meanwhile, $POET H has also posted five consecutive weeks of net inflows.
On the surface, this looks like strong institutional demand that should be pushing $BTC and $ETH higher.
But price is telling a different story.
$BTC is still hovering around $65K, while $ETH has yet to deliver a meaningful independent breakout.
👀 That divergence is the signal to watch.
Capital is clearly entering the market, but significant selling pressure appears to be absorbing much of that demand.
Nearly $900M flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, yet price barely responded. That suggests there may still be substantial supply waiting above the current market.
Are institutions accumulating here?
Or are they simply providing liquidity for existing holders to distribute?
The ETF data alone can’t answer that.
Inflows show that capital is entering the market — but they don't tell us how much supply is still waiting to be sold.
📊 Real strength comes when demand overwhelms supply.
We need to see expanding volume, stronger momentum, and ultimately a clean breakout from the current range.
Until then, strong ETF inflows without meaningful price appreciation remain a signal worth watching closely. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#SpaceXShortCovering
#OKXTraderVoices
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn As of August 10, 2026, Trump Coin (TRUMP) is priced at about $1.51, with a market capitalization of approximately $378 million. The recent trend has characterized a "slight short-term rebound, sustained decline in the medium, and severe halving in the long term."
Recent specific trends
- Intraday (24 hours): Price fluctuates between $1.47 and $1.53, with a slight increase of about 1.3% to 1.7%. Around $400 million, with relatively low market activity.
- Intraweek: Rose about 4.6%–6.5% over the past week, indicating a weak rebound.
- Monthly: Fell about 4.7%–5.8% over the past month, failing to reverse the downward trend.
- Annual (Long-term): Down more than 83% from the all-time high (ATH). This means that if you bought $10,000 at the high, you would now have less than $1,700 left.
Why can't it rise now?
Currently, the market's hype for this coin has faded, mainly due to the following weaknesses:
- Heavy selling pressure: The early team held large amounts of tokens and engaged in continuous sell-offs. For example, in April 2026, after an event, the team sold off a large amount, causing the token price to plummet by over 20% in a single day.
- Narrative cooling: This coin is a typical "event-driven" meme coin, with its value heavily dependent on Trump's own political hype. As market attention shifts, there is a lack of sustained hype momentum.
- Lack of fundamentals: As a pure meme coin, it lacks practical technical implementation or profit model support, relying entirely on sentiment and consensus, making it extremely weak in risk resistance during bear markets.
Risk warning
TRUMP currently faces two major risks:
1. Regulatory Sword: The U.S. SEC has tightened regulations on these celebrity tokens, posing legal risks of projects being classified as securities or fraud.
2. Unlocking Selling Pressure: A large number of tokens held by project teams are still in the unlocking cycle (continuing until 2028), and the market will face significant selling pressure over the next two years $TRUMP Bitcoin is currently at 65,000. The core of the recent sideways movement isn't directionless, but rather a temporary balance formed by selling pressure above, capital support below, and pre-data observation.
After a rapid recovery from around 62,300 to above 65,000, short-term profit-taking began to be realized, and selling pressure continued around 65,400, so prices have not accelerated further. However, last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $865 million, and the improved liquidity environment has continued to support the pullback.
The US July CPI will be released this Wednesday, which will directly affect US Treasury yields and market judgments on monetary policy. Before the results are announced, neither bulls nor bears have a reason to actively expand their positions, so prices are naturally compressed around 65,000.
Currently, it is still a high-level consolidation after an upward trend, with no clear trend weakening yet; the cyclical direction remains bullish. To truly break out of the sideways consolidation, CPI needs to provide catalysts and confirmed trading volume.
What the market lacks right now is not direction, but a reason that gives capital the courage to set direction.$MU
美光当前处于 "基本面依然强劲 vs 周期见顶担忧加剧" 的博弈中：
多头底牌：2027年产能已售罄、2028年EPS预期$150、10倍PE下股价可翻倍、美银/里昂等机构坚定看多
2.空头底牌：花旗预测存储价格明年Q2见顶、中国产能扩张、美光11倍PE高于SK海力士的6倍
美银的判断值得关注：空头对周期的判断是正确的，但对时机的判断可能是错误的。AI数据中心建设预计持续到2030年，记忆体供应紧张预计持续至2027年"以后"——如果周期顶部比市场预期的来得更晚，当前877美元的位置可能是历史性低估；但如果花旗的预测准确，存储价格在2027年Q2见顶后开始回落，美光将面临盈利和估值的双重压缩。
$918–$925是近期最关键的技术分水岭——放量突破则确认反弹转为持续回升；若持续受阻并跌破$860–$870支撑区，则可能再次测试$800甚至更低。$854 million flowed in, yet BTC remained flat at 65,000—this may be more noteworthy than a direct surge.
From August 3 to 7, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, marking the strongest week since April; BlackRock IBIT alone absorbed about $694 million, accounting for 81%.
BTC and ETH spot ETFs collectively attracted about $1.1 billion.
But BTC is still only about $65,000 at the moment.
This indicates that ETF buying is being absorbed by spot selling pressure, profit-taking, and hedging funds—institutional demand is indeed recovering, but supply and demand have not yet become imbalanced enough to trigger a main rally.
Next, three things truly determine the market:
Can ETFs continue to see inflows, can spot trading volume increase, and can CPI reduce interest rate pressure?
The market expects July CPI to be 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI to 2.5%. If inflation continues to cool and liquidity expectations resonate with ETF buying, BTC will be responsible for certainty, and ETH may release higher beta.
The funds have already arrived, but the price has not yet been decided.
The real major market often happens after both have finally resonated. $BTC #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
Is it because the crypto world is out of profit? They don't want to play anymore, even giving up precious ETFs.
Grayscale has consecutively withdrawn its registration applications for ADA, HBAR, and DOT ETFs, without disclosing specific reasons
On August 7, Grayscale consecutively withdrew its ETF registration applications for Cardano (ADA), Hedera (HBAR), and Polkadot (DOT), with a withdrawal document submission interval of about 190 seconds.
All three withdrawal documents stated that Grayscale no longer plans to proceed with the issuance of related ETF shares. The documents also state that the relevant registration statement has not yet taken effect, that no securities have been issued or sold, and no preliminary prospectus has been published. This withdrawal is not the SEC's rejection of the related ETF applications; the documents do not disclose the underlying reasons.
As of August 8, Grayscale's applications for altcoin ETFs such as Bittensor, Aave, BNB, NEAR, and Zcash are still in the preliminary stage. Previously, the registration statements for Grayscale's Avalanche Staking ETF and Hyperliquid Staking ETF took effect in March and June of this year, respectively. However, the fact that the registration statement is effective does not mean the product has already started trading.#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
Today's comment Q: Will you adjust your crypto positions because of the rise and fall of US tech stocks?
To be honest, he used to do it, but now he hardly pays attention to it.
At first, I was superstitious about the saying "when the Nasdaq rises, the big bin follows the rise," and every morning I would watch the US stock market close. So what happened? When the Nasdaq rose, I rushed in, but the bing stayed flat; when it fell, I was so scared I cut my losses; but when the stock fell, it scared me into selling my losses, but the bing flipped with a big bullish candlestick that left me stunned. After being cut back and forth a few times, I understood—when they get close, they look like brothers; when they turn against each other, they're even harder than strangers.
Later, I changed my approach: I don't watch the normal price movements of US stocks; I just do what I need to do, only watching the market itself. The only thing that makes me take a second look is when US stocks keep plunging continuously.
At this point, I check what Bitcoin is doing. If Bitcoin can hold up at key levels without falling, or even stay sideways without moving, that actually means it's quite firm, and I might consider adding more. If the US stock market crashes and the Bitcoin market follows in a flurry, then just keep waiting and don't rush to buy it.
On the other hand, if US stocks are rising well but the market stalls at resistance levels, I would actually reduce my points. If it should rise or not, it's just cowardice; if you do, don't waste time with it.
In short: US stocks are just background, not trading orders. If they fall, I only see if Bing can hold up on its own. If it holds up, I'll rise; if not, I'll wait.
What about you? Do you follow the US stock market when it crashes? 👇Employment data is quite crucial this time.
Nonfarm payrolls were -23,000, far below expectations, and previous months' data was also revised downward, with wage growth hitting multi-year lows.
The market's first reaction was not fear of recession, but rather: pressure to raise interest rates in September eased.
The dollar fell, gold and silver rose, and US stocks were bought back.
But note this.
This rebound is more driven by interest rate expectations, not by a sudden economic strengthening.
If the market starts trading recession logic later, risk assets will also come under pressure.
On the market:
$SPY Continue approaching historical highs.
$NVDA Rebounds along the trendline, with room for further gains.
$SPCX Selling pressure released after the earnings report, with a strong recovery last Friday.
On the other hand: MSFT has seen a top divergence, forming a clear divergence with $ORCL.
VIX is also something to pay attention to now.
Market sentiment has become somewhat optimistic. Low volatility can persist, but not forever.
Gold continues to break out of the wedge structure.
Silver surged to around $64.
BTC has broken through but has not yet entered a frenzy.
The key is $67,000.
Hold firm, with a target of $71,000–$72,000.
The core of market trading now is not:
The economy improved.
Rather: expectations for rate cuts have returned.
Going forward, we'll see if the index can hold steady and whether funds continue to follow. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? Why BTC is rising less than US stocks—what are funds rewarding?
Recently, many investors have been comparing.
Why are US tech stocks rising so strongly, while BTC hasn't seen a similar level of rally?
I believe the answer lies in the different core logic of the two markets.
The biggest advantage of US stocks now is that growth has already started to pay off.
AI companies generate revenue.
There are orders.
There is profit expectation.
Institutions can assess future value through data.
So capital is willing to keep flowing in.
BTC is different.
Bitcoin does not have traditional corporate profits; it relies more on market consensus and capital cycles.
Investors are focused on:
Global mobility.
Institutional configuration.
Market risk appetite.
So short-term performance is naturally different.
Now the market is rewarding certainty.
This is also why AI stocks attract massive capital.
But I believe that funding will never stay stuck in just one direction.
When the market rises to a certain stage, funds will look for new opportunities.
The biggest advantage in the crypto world is its flexibility.
Once a new funding cycle begins, crypto assets tend to react more strongly.
So what we see now is not who loses.
Rather, the market is searching for different answers at different stages. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Who will take over after Nvidia? Why did AI funding start looking for SanDisk?
Recently, there has been a significant change in the US stock market.
Funds are no longer focused solely on Nvidia.
More and more AI industry chain companies are beginning to attract attention.
Among them, storage sectors like SanDisk and Micron have become hot topics in the market.
Many people find it strange:
Why has a traditional storage company suddenly become a key player in the AI market?
I think the key is that the market is reinterpreting AI.
In the past, people thought AI was just a competition in computing power.
Whoever has the stronger GPU wins.
Therefore, Nvidia became the biggest beneficiary.
But as AI advances, the market has discovered:
AI requires not only computation, but also data.
Training large numbers of models requires massive data storage.
Enterprises deploying AI applications also require higher-performance data processing capabilities.
So the storage industry is beginning to be repriced.
Behind SanDisk's rise is actually capital seeking opportunities in the second phase of AI.
The first stage is buying hashrate.
The second stage is buying infrastructure.
In the future, the third phase may seek AI applications.
This is the law of industrial development.
Of course, after stock prices rise, market expectations also increase.
Whether SanDisk can continue to perform strongly in the future ultimately depends on its performance.
Trends matter, but the ability to deliver is even more important. #Will Wednesday's CPI release rewrite the pricing for September rate hikes? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #现货ETThe less attention BTC gets, the closer it is to the starting point of the next rally
The biggest recent change in the crypto world is a noticeable decline in attention.
In the past, even slight fluctuations in Bitcoin would trigger a lot of discussion in the market.
Now, many investors have become very calm, and some have even begun to suspect:
Has this round of opportunities already passed?
But after observing the market for so long, I found a pattern.
A real big market often doesn't happen when everyone is excited, but when the market is least patient.
The current problem with BTC is not that it lacks value, but that the market lacks new driving force.
Factors that previously drove Bitcoin upward, including halving expectations, ETF funding, and rate cut expectations, have already been partially traded in advance by the market.
Now the funds need to find new reasons.
This may be due to improved global liquidity or more institutional capital inflows.
Bitcoin is gradually transforming from a highly volatile speculative asset into an institutional allocation asset.
This means future market trends may not be as wild as before, but the long-term capital base will be more stable.
I believe the most important thing now is not to watch BTC's price movements every day.
Instead, observe whether there are signs of capital accumulating again.
Often, opportunities don't appear when everyone is discussing them the most.
Instead, it gradually forms after most people lose interest. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Everyone, TSMC's report card is tough.
July revenue was 467.58 billion New Taiwan Dollars, up 5.6% month-on-month and soaring 44.7% year-on-year, setting new monthly records for three consecutive months. Cumulative revenue for the first seven months was 2.87 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 37% year-on-year. Just one month into the third quarter, more than 30% of the financial target has already been achieved. Global chip foundry leaders speak with data, not on shouting.
AI hardware demand is the core support
July revenue was $14.5 billion, confirming that AI infrastructure spending is still accelerating amid stock market volatility. Nvidia and Apple, as core customers, have seen order visibility extend through the end of the year. TSMC had previously raised its full-year 2026 dollar revenue growth forecast to just over 40%, with capital expenditures reaching record $60 to $64 billion.
The stock price reaction was honest
Today, the Taiwan stock market closed up 0.42% at 2,380 yuan, a mild reaction. The stock price has fallen about 5% from its late June high, but its cumulative gain for the year still exceeds 50%. While the market rewards fundamentals, it also remains cautious about AI investment returns.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Upcoming highlights
Meeting the Q3 target is not a big problem; the real test lies in Q4. Institutional investors are now not looking at whether Q3 can meet the target, but whether it is strong enough to raise Q4 or the full-year forecast again. The new iPhone processor shipment was a key driver in Q3, but whether Q4 can continue is a variable. Rising storage chip costs may squeeze terminal profits, which is a risk the industry chain needs to pay attention to.
TSMC's fundamentals are unquestionable, and demand for AI hardware is still steadily growing. But the stock price has already risen 50% since the beginning of the year, and the market has already priced in the good news very well. At this level, respect both fundamentals and price. What do you all think about TSMC's performance in the second half of the year? Let's talk in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading.美股越强币圈越弱 其实隐藏着一个重要信号
最近市场最大的矛盾，就是美股不断创新高，而币圈却没有同步爆发。
很多人认为：
是不是加密资产已经失去吸引力？
但我觉得，这可能只是资金周期不同。
市场资金不会同时推动所有资产上涨。
当某个方向出现强确定性机会，资金自然会集中。
现在AI就是这样的存在。
产业趋势明确。
企业需求真实。
资金有理由持续进入。
而币圈目前处于等待阶段。
不是没有价值，而是缺少新的资金催化。
其实这种情况在市场历史中非常常见。
资金永远会寻找最容易赚钱的位置。
当一个市场上涨过热，另一个市场可能开始获得关注。
所以现在看到美股强，不代表币圈弱。
更多时候，是资金正在进行重新分配。
我认为未来真正值得关注的，不是谁现在涨得最快。
而是谁能够成为下一阶段资金重新关注的方向。SpaceX has recently been a typical short-squeeze trend, especially since the unlocking on August 6 was heavily bearish, and the stock price had fallen for a month straight, accumulating massive short sales. It's like a powder pouch—just one match away from lit.
Recent consecutive positive developments:
1. The Terafab chip factory looks very futuristic and designed
2. Argus is pushed up to buy on Thursday, target price 160 (does not mean it will be reached)
3. Cursor's $60 billion deal is reportedly due this week
4. Cathie Wood added $13.2 million
All of these are continuously heating up and igniting step by step
Because another batch of new unlocks is coming on August 20, it's actually not good to be bullish after the rally. Although this unlock is smaller than on August 6, the level of panic may be noticeably lower. But I think the maximum of 145 this round is about right. Since I'm stuck around 160, I plan to open the same number of short positions to lock in floating losses around 140, wait for a pullback and stabilization, then close the market and wait for the next rebound to break even.
But this is just an ideal plan. Who knows if this guy will keep surging and blowing wildly; we'll have to wait and see.
Also, note that after the market closed on Monday, August 10th, $RKLB will release its earnings report, making it a good time to verify whether the space sector is fundamentally driven by fundamentals or pure rotation. SPCX is very likely to interact. #财报观察员: Bear buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? Strategy is selling Bitcoin again, and this time it's all used to buy back STRC?
The latest documents show that Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC from August 3 to 9, with an average price of about $64,262, raising approximately $108.6 million, with funds mainly used to repurchase STRC preferred shares.
After the sale, the company still holds 840,447 BTC, with a total cost of about $63.36 billion and an average cost of about $75,385. Including the previous week, Strategy has sold a total of 3,328 BTC over two consecutive weeks, cashing out about $213 million.
Although the amount sold is less than 0.4% of the total holdings, which cannot yet be interpreted as bearish, the company's model is changing: BTC, which previously emphasized "buy only, not sell," is now being used to buy back preferred shares and maintain its capital structure.
Do you think they'll keep selling coins next week?
The above content is solely a personal research result and shared opinion. Rational discussion is welcome and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks; please assess and make decisions prudently.
#加密貨幣 #比特幣 #Strategy $BTC $MSTR $STRC