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#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale This week, US earnings reports have been a relay race, with AMD and SpaceX leading the way with their results, followed by stablecoin leader Circle. These three reports are tied to AI computing power, aerospace themes, and the liquidity lifeline of the crypto world, directly affecting short-term sentiment in the tech sector and crypto market. Let's talk about the core highlights and future strategies I've reviewed and analyzed. 1. Summary of the financial report timeline from August 4 to 6 1. SpaceX (SPCX): Released after market close in the early hours of August 5 (first to launch this week) The first quarterly report after listing is also the biggest contradiction in this round of trading: two days after the financial report is released, on August 6, the unlocking of 100 billion yuan in restricted shares will be held, with 911.5 million yuan of internal shares unlocked, corresponding to a market value exceeding 109 billion USD. Short positions have already piled up to 34%, with funds betting on whether the financial report can withstand the selling pressure from the unlocking release. I focus on three key points: the number of new Starlink subscribers, aerospace launch business revenue, and the capital consumption of xAI computing power. The market estimates Q2 revenue will approach $6.9 billion. As long as Starlink's profits exceed expectations, it can offset the selling pressure from the unlocked, and SPCX will rebound after a short-term decline; If large losses continue, the stock price is very likely to fall below the previous low of 104, causing small aerospace concept coins to weaken simultaneously. 2. AMD: Following SpaceX's debut, the AI computing power benchmark is the answer The market has long bet on AMD's AI chip business. Data center revenue in Q1 has already surpassed Intel's. The core focus of this Q2 financial report is two things: customer orders for the MI450 next-generation AI chip and whether cloud vendor procurement continues to accelerate. Institutions generally expect data center revenue to surpass $6 billion. As long as AI business growth exceeds guidance, the computing power sector will see a wave of short-term speculation, with AI computing power tokens like FET and TAO benefiting accordingly. Conversely, if the target only meets expectations and the upward guidance misses, small coins with previously rising hash power will collectively pull back. The current explosive demand for inference AI is a major industry trend, and AMD's performance is the touchstone to see if the computing power rally can continue. 3. Circle Finale: Debuting before the market opens on Wednesday, determining how much liquidity there is in the crypto world As the issuer of USDC stablecoins, Circle was the finale contender that truly impacted the crypto market this week, with its earnings report directly determining the volume of market liquidity. Focus on two key data points: first, whether USDC circulation and on-chain trading volume can maintain high growth. Trading volume surged 263% in Q1. If circulation continues to expand in Q2, it means off-exchange USD funds will keep flowing in, providing liquidity support for Bitcoin and Ethereum; Second, progress in ARC public chain implementation and AI micropayment deployment, representing Circle's transformation beyond a purely stablecoin business. Additionally, reserve interest income and compliance license expansion cannot be ignored. Once the financial report shows USDC reserves shrinking and business contraction, liquidity on the exchange tightens, and mainstream coins are likely to fall into a volatile weakening phase. 2. Three scenarios of market simulation corresponding to three financial reports Scenario 1: Overall performance exceeds expectations AMD chip orders shine, SpaceX's profits narrowed, Circle USDC saw increased volume → US tech stocks rose, AI + aerospace-themed tokens rotated in turn, and the market rose slightly on liquidity support. Investors can lightly hold small coins in computing power and aerospace concepts. Scenario 2: Divergence between good and bad (most likely to occur) AMD met performance targets, SpaceX's earnings were weak but pressure was lifted, Circle was fairly standard→ The market was structured and split, with only the computing power sector showing independent movement, while other coins continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, focusing only on short-term fast entry and exit, without taking long-term positions. Scenario 3: The group falls short of expectations All three earnings reports fell short of market expectations→ Risk appetite cooled rapidly, funds flocked to avoid risks, Bitcoin and Ethereum came under pressure and retreated. During this period, hold back and avoid opening new positions, waiting for sentiment to stabilize. 3. My own practical arrangements Before the financial report is released, maintain a light position and observe throughout, avoiding early heavy positions to bet on direction. Before the earnings report was released, SpaceX avoided heavy positions in SPCX contracts, facing the pressure of unlocking hundreds of billions and a very high probability of losses in the insertion; After AMD's earnings report is released, decide whether to enter the computing power sector; Ultimately, after Circle's final earnings report is released and the status of off-exchange liquidity is confirmed, the decision will be made on whether to increase holdings in mainstream coins. Many people have already positioned themselves in small-cap thematic coins to bet on earnings reports. Are you more inclined to wait for positive news to land and then enter the market with the trend, or are you currently holding small positions to lay low in advance?我是刺哥，今天盘面几个关键信号，直接划重点。 BTC在62420附近震荡，方向还没选。上方64000到65500是空头清算密集区，突破可能触发逼空。下方62000到63000存在多单清算压力。多空力量接近均衡，方向取决于美伊谈判和宏观数据。地缘缓和是边际利好，但市场已经部分定价，BTC没有跟随美股大涨，说明加密市场在等更明确的催化剂。亚马逊市值首次突破3万亿美元，股价涨约5%。Palantir业绩大超预期，盘后大涨。Meta、微软、谷歌全线走强。科技股集体上涨，说明市场对AI投入回报的信心正在修复。但对加密市场来说，美股涨BTC没跟，ETF资金流偏弱限制了上行弹性。短期需要新的催化剂才能打破僵局。闪迪作为企业级SSD核心供应商，直接受益于数据中心扩建需求。1206.65的多单继续持有，止损上移到1220，目标看1300到1350。接下来盯着三件事：霍尔木兹海峡是否实际重开，决定油价走势和通胀预期。比特币ETF资金流能否转正，决定短期方向。8月5日闪迪财报，决定存储板块情绪。刺哥说完了。你细品。#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增 The political arena in the United States is once again engaged in a game of struggle! 25 states jointly sue tariff policies, shifting global trade expectations Twenty-five Democratic-led U.S. states have formally filed a lawsuit against the Federal Government at the International Court of International Trade, accusing the new round of tariff policies of exceeding the President's statutory authority, requesting a suspension of tariff enforcement, ruling the policy illegal, and demanding refunds. This round of tariffs covers 60 economies, accounting for 99.4% of total U.S. imports, with tariff rates set at 10% and 12.5%, respectively. States questioned the policy basis, rushed investigation processes, and lacked reasonable support for tax rates; The White House countered by saying tariffs are a legitimate means to address unfair trade. This lawsuit may lengthen uncertainty in trade policy and continue to disrupt global inflation expectations. [Afan] Core Signal Interpretation 1. Intensifying internal political conflicts in the United States Tariff policies face strong challenges from local state governments, making policy implementation uncertain. Future court rulings will change market expectations for trade inflation. 2. New variables in inflation expectations If tariffs are implemented smoothly, rising import costs will intensify inflationary pressures; If the lawsuit sues the tariffs, it is expected to ease the risk of rising prices, with the two outcomes corresponding to completely different macro paths. 3. Expansion of risk asset volatility space Trade policy drags keep funds on the sidelines, making it difficult for the market to form a stable one-sided trend, and repeated shifts in expectations easily trigger market volatility.BTC discussions have clearly accelerated, with bulls and bears converging: what can be confirmed behind 115 mentions? Putting BTC's short-window numbers together with the full-day average makes the picture much more complete than just looking at the popular rankings. On August 4th at 07:00 (China time), OKX Onchain OS recorded 115 mentions of BTC in one hour, including 104 times on X and 11 times in news; The total 24-hour volume was 1,927. Converted, the latest hour is 1.43 times the hourly average for Long Window, which is about 43% higher than the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether discussions have heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you take an extra step and make an inference that the data does not support. The structure of tone is another line. Within one hour, 28% are slightly bullish, 30% bearish, and about 42% neutral, indicating a 'close bull-bear' trend; Within the 24-hour period, the trend is 22% bullish and 33% bearish. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward. On the source side, BTC is currently mainly driven by X. When a message is widely shared, mentions quickly increase, but independent information may not necessarily increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor does it weigh by account influence or fund size. Long window sources can be used as background: BTC has 1,651 times in 24 hours, with 276 news events. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or news updates just haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, so we still need to wait for the original announcement or the next round of source distribution confirmation. I would treat Bullish and Bearish as thermometers under the same ruler, not as exact voting. There is a lot of neutral content, usually just everyone watching and not yet forming a unified direction; An increase in bearish bias may also mean more risk discussions, but it doesn't mean every poster has truly established a short position. The next step to observe is whether spot trading volume expands, whether perpetual contract funding rates and open interest are moving in the same direction, and whether liquidations are concentrated. These three sets of data answer real trading participation and leverage structure, and cannot be replaced by community mentions. If there are macro or industry events, the official original text should be directly verified. How did I know I was mistaken this time? If the next round of BTC mentions returns to near the average and the gap between bullish and bearish will narrow, this change will likely be just short-term noise. Conversely, two consecutive rounds of increased speed, expanded news sources, and simultaneous increases in spot and derivatives transactions are more like the main market theme is taking shape. You also need to keep the intraday difference. The community activity levels differ naturally between early Asian trading, US trading hours, and near major announcements; A single 1.43x is not suitable for annualization, nor should it be used for hard comparisons with raw counts from other platforms. Continuous snapshots are more useful than a single beautiful number. So I first recorded BTC as "discussions clearly accelerated, short-term tone close between bulls and bears." The official rankings stop here, with no proof that funds are betting in the same direction. If the next round also improves both the diversity of sources and market transactions, it won't be too late to raise confidence in judgment.$BTC Palantir Earnings Report "Beat and Raise": Why Is This More Important Than Just Beating Expectations? After Palantir released its Q2 earnings report, its stock price surged over 10% at one point. However, what truly excited Wall Street was not just the single-quarter performance, but the market's so-called **"Beat and Raise (beating expectations + raising full-year guidance)"**. Why are these four words so important? Because a company making money this quarter doesn't necessarily mean it can continue to grow in the future; but if management, after delivering better-than-expected results, proactively raises full-year revenue and profit forecasts, it shows the company is confident about its future business. This is why funds quickly flowed back into the AI sector after Palantir's earnings release. The company not only exceeded market expectations for both revenue and profit in Q2 but also raised its full-year guidance for revenue, operating profit, and free cash flow, indicating that enterprise AI demand remains very strong. For the crypto community, this is also a positive signal. Over the past year, AI has been the hottest theme in global capital markets. When tech giants like Palantir and Amazon continue to deliver impressive results, it means institutional funds have not left the growth track but are still willing to pay for AI and technological innovation. With improved risk appetite, funds often flow not only into tech stocks but gradually into BTC, ETH, and AI sector tokens. Especially AI concept tokens like Render (RENDER) and Bittensor (TAO) usually benefit from the sentiment in tech stocks. When the market believes the AI industry is still in a high-growth phase, AI tokens' valuations are more likely to gain funding recognition. Of course, it cannot be simply assumed that Palantir's rise means BTC will definitely rise. The real determinants of the crypto market direction remain ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve policies, and the global liquidity environment. But if more and more tech giants show "Beat and Raise," it indicates institutional risk appetite is warming up, which is undoubtedly a positive signal for the entire crypto market. Therefore, the greatest value of this earnings report is not how much money Palantir made, but that it proves to the market: AI commercialization is still accelerating, and Wall Street is still willing to pay for growth. If this optimistic sentiment continues to spread, BTC, ETH, and AI sector tokens are expected to attract more incremental capital attention. #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Recently, the US stock market has shown a clear divergence: on one side, the S&P 500 index has surged strongly and is approaching its all-time high, with overall market risk appetite remaining high; On the other hand, the storage technology sector experienced a sharp correction. Storage and memory-related stocks, which had surged due to explosive AI demand, have experienced significant profit-taking and cooling sentiment. This phenomenon of "strong indexes, weak sectors" precisely reflects the current true state of the U.S. stock market—the bull market is not yet over, but structural opportunities are shifting. 1. Why is the S&P 500 still strong? The S&P 500's sustained approach to new highs is supported by three key factors: corporate earnings expectations remain robust The market remains optimistic about full-year profit growth. Although AI-related capital expenditure fluctuates, the overall direction has not reversed. Macro liquidity and sentiment support Although the interest rate environment is not accommodating, economic resilience remains, and investors have not fully shifted to defensiveness. Funds are concentrated in large-cap blue chips When uncertainty rises, funds tend to flow into large-cap stocks with good liquidity and solid fundamentals, which directly pushes the S&P 500 higher. A strong index does not mean all stocks are strong. It is more a victory of "quality and scale." 2. Why has the storage technology sector experienced such a sharp correction? The storage sector (NAND, HBM, enterprise-grade SSDs, etc.) was previously a star track driven by AI, with astonishing gains. But the recent pullback is also quite clear: valuation bubbles are being squeezed: previous gains were too large, and once the market doubts "how long the shortage will last," valuations will be quickly driven down. Supply concerns are rising: some factories [BitMining 26.08.03 8-K Summary - Buyback of Own Stock Again? Tom Lee really wants a kiss? ] ■ Total assets held approximately $11.3 billion (ETH $1,880) - 5,797,813 ETH, valued at approximately $10.9 billion - Cash and securities $173M - Beast Industries $180M - Eightco/ORBS $61M - 209 BTC ■ Holds 5,797,813 ETH - Bought an additional 10,399 ETH last week - About 4.803% of total ETH supply - Approximately 96.07% of the 5% target achieved - 237,187 ETH remaining to the target ■ Last week, repurchased 4.5 million common shares (Hmm~ I really want to give it a kiss) - 6.1 million shares last week → 4.5 million shares this week - The scale of buybacks has shrunk, but for three consecutive weeks, large-scale buybacks of its own shares have continued - Since July 1, the company has cumulatively repurchased 16.1 million shares - Executed through an existing $4B scale of share repurchase plan - ETH· The largest share buyback of common stock in BTC DAT company history - The average buyback price and total buyback amount have not yet been disclosed in this announcement ■ Estimated at approximately 0.009875 ETH per share - Estimated stock count: approximately 587,126,394 shares - Last week, the estimated ETH per share was about 0.009782 ETH - This week, the estimated ETH per share is about 0.009875 ETH - An increase of about 0.95% compared to the previous week (In just 3 weeks, ETH per share increased by more than 3%, achieving excess returns compared to staking, far surpassing Tom Lee) ■ Cash and securities approximately $173M - Currently $268M → $173M - Down about $95M from the previous week - The additional 10,399 ETH purchased is approximately $19.5M at ETH $1,880 - Simply assuming no other cash inflows or outflows, the company's stock buyback amount is estimated at about $75.5M - Dividing by 4.5 million shares, the estimated average buyback price is about $16.77 - There were no signs of ATMs being conducted this time either - In fact, it is estimated that the cash held will be concentrated in ETH and the company's own stock buyback ■ Funds required to reach the 5% target - Remaining supply: 237,187 ETH - ETH $1,880 calculates approximately $445.9M - Relative to the current simple cash shortfall, approximately $272.9M - It is difficult to achieve the 5% target with current cash alone, and additional funding such as BMNP issuance is highly likely ■ 4,917,189 ETH staked - Approximately 84.8% of total ETH holdings - 7-day benchmark annualized yield: 2.67% - Current annualized staking yield is about $247M - When fully pledged, the expected annualized compensation is about $291M ■ Other changes - The average daily trading volume over 5 days is approximately $597M → $698M - Among approximately 5,704 U.S. listed stocks, it ranked 171st in trading volume → 180th ■ Tom Lee's commentary - In July, ETH exceeded the Nasdaq 100 by about 2,500 basis points, or 25 percentage points This is the largest excess increase since July 2025 - Last year, ETH also rose from $2,375 in July to $4,057 by the end of August - After ETH's monthly benchmark significantly outperformed QQQ in the past, BMNR's stock price outperformed ETH next month, he explained - Based on this assessment, BMNR is still undervalued, so it repurchased 4.5 million shares of its own stock this week - The GENIUS Act and the SEC's Project Crypto are expected to bring about a major transformation in the financial industry, similar to the end of the gold standard in 1971 ■ Postscript Hmm~ Tom Lee only cared about shareholders Pop pop~ But how will the remaining cash be raised now...? I believe ATMs will not be used below MNAV 1.0~ Raise additional funds through BMNP~Summary of U.S. stock market information 1. Financial News Hotspots ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. Trump Cancels Strike on Iran; U.S.-Iran Resumes Talks, Oil Prices Plunge 7% U.S. President Trump announced on Sunday the cancellation of large-scale military strikes against Iran, and the two sides will begin negotiations on the afternoon of August 3 (Tuesday morning Beijing time). Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar strongly urged détente. Brent crude oil opened down 7.3% to $81.55, while WTI dropped 6.8%, briefly dropping below $79. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, with risk sentiment fully recovering. (Source: CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg) 2. OPEC+ approves an increase of 188,000 barrels per day in September, normalizing supply OPEC+ agreed to increase its September production quota by about 188,000 barrels per day, completing a gradual rollback of a round of voluntary production cuts since 2023. Combined with easing between the US and Iran, double negative factors are putting heavy pressure on oil prices. Iraq and Turkey have also extended their expired pipeline agreement by one year, allowing exports of up to 750,000 barrels per day. (Source: Bloomberg, CNBC) 3. Amazon's Q2 earnings report exceeded expectations across the board, with stock price surging 15% in a single day Amazon's Q2 revenue surpassed $200 billion (+20%) for the first time, operating profit was $27.5 billion (+43%), and AWS grew 36.7% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters. Annualized revenue from AI and self-developed chip businesses both exceeded $25 billion. The full-year capital expenditure guidance has been raised from $200 billion to $220 billion. After the earnings report, the stock price rose 15% to close at $271.58, marking the largest single-day gain since 2012. (Source: Amazon SEC Filing, CNBC, Reuters) 4. Apple's Q2 Weak Guidance, Stock Price Plunges 7.35% After Apple's Q2 earnings were released, weak iPhone demand and guidance fell short of expectations, causing its stock price to plunge 7.35% on Friday to $308.91, marking its largest single-day drop since April 2025. Nasdaq constituents are extremely differentiated: AMZN +15% vs AAPL -7.4%. (Source: CNBC, Bloomberg) 5. US, Japan, and South Korea jointly intervene in the forex market; US dollar index falls below 100 The U.S. Treasury, through the New York Fed, commissioned Wall Street banks to sell euros and buy yen, jointly implementing the largest coordinated foreign exchange intervention in nearly 30 years in collaboration with Japan and South Korea. USD/JPY fell below 156 to 155.23, its first time since May. The US Dollar Index fell below the 100 mark to 99.78. (Source: Reuters, Bloomberg) 6. Fed internal divisions become more public; Walsh considers reducing meeting frequency In July, the FOMC maintained rates at 3.50-3.75% at a 9:3 vote, with three opposing votes being the largest division in a decade (Dallas, Minneapolis, and Cleveland chairs advocated a 25bp rate hike). Chairman Wash considered reducing the annual meeting from 8 to 6, canceling the Forward-Looking Guidance, breaking the tradition since 1981. (Source: Fed, NYT, CNBC) 7. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007 Due to Walsh's hawkish stance and internal splits, long-term US Treasuries were sold off. The 10Y rose to 4.74%, and the 30Y rose to 5.271% (the highest since July 2007), with a 30bp surge in July, marking the largest monthly gain since 2005. The market cast a 'vote of no confidence' in the Fed's credibility. (Source: Bloomberg, Reuters) 8. Memory chips plunged nearly 30% in the month, Philadelphia Semiconductor hits its worst July since 2008 The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 28% in July, marking its worst monthly performance since 2008. SanDisk's monthly drop was over 30%, Micron fell 5.9%, and SK Hynix's ADR dropped 24% cumulatively. China's Changxin LPDDR6 technology breakthrough is putting further pressure. The Memory Chip ETF (DRAM) fell nearly 30% in July. (Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC) 9. Japanese and Korean stock markets both fell on Monday, with chip stocks leading the decline South Korea's KOSPI fell as much as 5% in early trading (just surging 18% on Friday), while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 7%, and KOSDAQ triggered Sidecar to suspend programmatic buying. The Nikkei 225 fell 2%, and SoftBank dropped 3%. Japanese storage giant Kioxia bucked the trend and rose over 10%. (Source: Reuters, Bloomberg) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ II. Hot Topics (Three Major Focus Areas) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Direction One: A Dramatic Reversal in the US-Iran Situation—From 'War Premium' to 'Peace Discount' Trump's "TACO" (Cancel Strike) was the biggest geopolitical catalyst this month. Oil prices fell more than 11% in a week, directly easing inflation concerns. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to pre-war conditions," and there are still reports of oil tankers being attacked near Oman, indicating that geopolitical risks have not been fully eliminated. The energy sector is under short-term pressure, but volatility remains high. Direction Two: Intensified AI Financial Report Divergence—"Proving Oneself" vs. "Disappointed Expectations" With AWS growth of 37% and AI annualized revenue of $25 billion+ per year, Amazon became the first tech giant to "prove that investing in AI can make money." Apple, on the other hand, was penalized by the market for weak guidance. Storage chips have suffered a "triple blow" (China's DRAM breakthrough + SK hynix/Micron performance pressure + overcapacity concerns). The market shifted from "faith investment" to "accounting-driven." Direction 3: Federal Reserve credibility crisis—long-term bond selling = implicit rate hikes The combination of three signals of Walsh's "hawkish stance," three opposing votes, and reduced meeting frequency has shifted the market's pricing logic from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates." Expectations for a rate hike in September have heated up, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.27% effectively signaling a disguised rate hike, and credit card default rates rising to 2010 levels sounding the alarm.$BTC Tech giants' earnings reports are at a critical juncture—why are crypto traders paying more attention than investors? This week, US stocks entered a period of intensive earnings disclosures from tech giants. The performance and future outlook of companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Palantir are becoming the most important indicators in global capital markets. For the crypto world, this is not just a U.S. stock market event, but a test of global risk appetite. Today, Bitcoin is no longer an independently operating market. With the development of Bitcoin spot ETFs, more and more Wall Street institutions are incorporating BTC into their asset allocations. When tech giants deliver impressive earnings reports, the market believes that corporate profitability remains strong, AI investment and the digital economy continue to grow, and institutional funds are more willing to continue allocating to tech stocks and crypto assets. For example, Amazon recently surged due to the rapid growth of its AWS business, and Palantir attracted capital thanks to better-than-expected earnings, indicating that the market has not abandoned growth sectors but is seeking companies with genuine performance support. Such sentiment often simultaneously improves the performance of risk assets like BTC and ETH. However, if tech giants' earnings fall short of expectations, or if management lowers future growth targets, market risk appetite could cool rapidly. Capital may reflow into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and US Treasuries, making the crypto market vulnerable to drag. For crypto traders, what truly matters is not how much each company earns, but whether the earnings report has changed the direction of global capital allocation. If tech stocks continue to attract capital and Bitcoin ETFs maintain net inflows, the probability of BTC breaking through key resistance levels will further increase; Conversely, if the overall earnings report is disappointing, short-term volatility in the crypto market may intensify again. Therefore, tech giants' earnings reports not only determine the next phase of U.S. stock market trends but may also become important catalysts influencing crypto market trends. In the coming days, besides monitoring BTC, attention should also be paid to whether Wall Street funds continue to embrace risk assets, as this is the key variable determining the direction of the crypto market. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale Why did it rise today? First, the stock price has already fallen from the highest point of about $225 after listing to around $110, nearly halving, with short-term profits taken by shorts, making it prone to short covering before earnings. Second, the market still has high expectations for Starlink. Currently, what truly supports SpaceX's valuation is not the rocket launch business, but Starlink's user growth, profit margin, and cash flow. The market expects Starlink users to have reached about 10.3 million, with quarterly revenue and operating profit possibly continuing rapid growth. Third, there is an earnings expectation gap. The market has already priced in the negatives of "high investment, expanding losses, AI cash burn," so as long as the actual data isn't worse than imagined, the stock price may continue to rebound. But the biggest risk is not the earnings report, but the lock-up expiration. SpaceX's IPO price was $135, and the current stock price is still below the issue price. The valuation corresponding to the issue price at the time of listing was already very high. More importantly, the market is focused on the lock-up expiration around August 6. Reports expect about 900 million shares may become available for sale $$SPCX #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 You must not cater to the US stock market. Like the crypto world, hot money running around is a narrative of chasing new releases Previously, Bai Mao hyped the "chokeneck," so the "choke" sector rose repeatedly, and now those who entered later are "choked." Now, hot money has found it a "bottleneck" and is no longer accepted, and people have started hyping up "AI application software." What's the difference? It's all just hype and expectations, with almost nothing to do with fundamentals These software works are essentially no different from last month, but the narrative is very different Moreover, "AI software narratives" are still in their early stages, because those who believe in "chokehold" narratives haven't cut their losses yet and run over. Once they do, we can hurry and "grab their necks 😁" here SanDisk rebounded 15% from its low, but the real test comes after the earnings report SanDisk's recent trend is quite interesting. The 1-hour chart surged rapidly from around 1123, once reaching 1335, with a short-term rebound close to 19%. On the surface, today's rally was driven by new news: SanDisk and SK Hynix released the first high-bandwidth flash HBF technical specification, aiming to establish new storage standards for AI inference scenarios. But I believe we shouldn't immediately judge that SanDisk has re-entered a main upward trend just because of a single positive or a big bullish candlestick. There is indeed room for long-term vision for HBF. Compared to relying solely on expensive HBM, HBF aims to meet the growing data demands in AI inference with greater capacity. If it can achieve industry standardization in the future and truly enter the AI server and accelerator supply chain, SanDisk's valuation logic may gradually shift from traditional NAND cyclical stocks to AI infrastructure assets. The problem is that there is still a gap between the technical story and the profit realization. From the market perspective, after rebounding at 1123, SanDisk has returned above the middle Bollinger band, but the price has faced continuous selling pressure near 1315–1335; MA5 and MA10 are near 1300, with short-term bulls and bears vying for this level again. KDJ has turned from its high, and the volume of active selling is temporarily higher than the volume of active buying, indicating that the chasing capital has not formed an absolute advantage. More importantly, SanDisk will release its financial report on August 5. The market has previously experienced extreme rallies and sharp drawdowns, with stock prices dropping about 50% in the past month. This means that current capital trading is no longer just about earnings growth, but about whether earnings can continue to support previously rapidly inflated valuations. So my understanding of this rebound is: The news provided reasons for the rebound: oversold and short covering amplified the gains, but the earnings report decided whether this rally was a trend reversal or a sentiment correction amid high volatility. Next, I will focus on two locations: Holding above 1315–1335 indicates the market is willing to continue pricing in the HBF and earnings forecasts; If it falls below 1260 again, it indicates that the chips above are still being realized through positive news, and the rebound structure may weaken again. Trading has never been about judging whether a company has a future, but about assessing how much of the future has already been drawn from the current price. SanDisk's long-term logic may not be over, but before the financial report, no direction is suitable for overconfidence. Do you think this rally is a new round of valuation restructuring brought by HBF, or is it a rush of funds ahead of the earnings report? $SNDK Against the backdrop of high US interest rate pressure and the diversion of the crypto market, the optical interconnect sector has been cleared out, and $MRVL has seen a recovery in expectations. NVIDIA executives confirmed that CPO has been mass-produced and delivered, and indium phosphide laser chips are facing a supply bottleneck even more severe than memory. Cross-rack CPO penetration and pluggable coexist until 2027. If the next two weeks' financial reports confirm deliveries, it will trigger liquidity spillover in US stocks. Subsequent observation will be made to see whether the release of indium phosphide capacity and the actual CPO delivery schedule are hindered in the financial report data. #Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading, #SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlock imminent [Pharaoh's Market Watch] Everyone is asking Pharaoh, what's the deal with Palantir, and how did it become the new top star in the AI circle overnight? Pharaoh says directly, this company is the largest AI supplier to the US military. Wall Street used to overlook it, but now it has slapped everyone's face with a single report. The financial report is impressive, with revenue of $1.94 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase, far exceeding the market expectation of $1.8 billion; adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents, while the market expected only 35 cents. The most explosive part of this report lies in two signals. First, US commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year to $764 million, with backlog contracts reaching $6.24 billion, doubling year-over-year. This shows Palantir is no longer just a government defense contractor; it has also established a foothold in the enterprise AI market. Second, CEO Karp directly stated, "Strong growth can continue for at least 18 months," and raised the full-year revenue guidance sharply from $7.65 billion to $8.15 billion. Amid all the controversies about AI burning cash, Palantir directly proves that selling shovels can really make money. What does this mean for Bitcoin? The underlying logic behind Palantir's surge is that enterprise AI spending has not cooled off; it has just shifted from "buying GPUs to tell stories" to "buying software to see returns." Palantir is a model of AI commercialization moving from concept to implementation. Bitcoin, as an extension of risk appetite, will follow the Nasdaq sentiment in the short term. With AI software stocks stable, Bitcoin can also catch a breather. Remember, good trades are waited for, not chased. Palantir's bullish candle lights up the entire AI software sector, but whether Bitcoin can hold this wave of sentiment depends on whether 62000 can hold. Follow Pharaoh, and wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Fundamental Research Report $NEAR / NEAR Protocol (Public Chain/L1) $3.20 To summarize: NEAR Protocol ($NEAR) has an overall score of 61/100, with a rating that narrative emphasizes implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented. Let's look at the project first: NEAR Protocol (token $NEAR), public chain/L1 track. Focusing on fragmented public blockchains and AI storytelling. Benchmarked against ETH and SOL. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days. At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (for LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $474.1K, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate without a burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment. On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, NEAR Protocol $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. For FDV, NEAR Protocol $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, NEAR Protocol $474.1K, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, NEAR Protocol has not disclosed, ETH has not been disclosed, and SOL has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 6327.3x, FDV divided by revenue 8858.2x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In summary: Solid fundamentals (score 61/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break down, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required. That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market. #基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit 🚨 SECURITY ALPHA: "Physical Impact" Risks - The Dark Picture Behind the Decision to Shift to Bitcoin ETFs! 🚨 👉 Shocking case study: 2 crypto millionaires in France have just been kidnapped and tortured for 52 hours. The victim was forced to transfer $30,000 on-chain and extorted another $150,000 before being rescued by police after a chase. 👉 Macro Data (CertiK): More than 50 blackmail attacks/kidnappings were recorded targeting crypto holders in H1/2026 alone. 👉 ETFs as a shield: The use of ETFs helps transfer custody risk to large financial institutions. Criminals can't force you to transfer money on-chain when you only hold "shares" of the fund. Silver Label Lesson: The biggest risk of self-custody sometimes doesn't come from smart contracts, but from the real world. Flex less, stay safe! 🌐⚡️ $BTC $SPCX @OKX Orbit #OKXOrbitTopics #BigTechEarningsWatch (Solana)$SOL Currently (early August 2026) is around $73, with a market cap of about $42 billion, ranking 7th globally. It represents a roughly 75% pullback from the January 2025 high of $295, representing a typical "price weak, strong underlayer" divergence scenario. In short, it qualifies $SOL $SOL is a leading public chain with high beta, with improving technical narratives and institutional entry points, but prices are still being suppressed by macro sentiment and trapped positions, suitable for those who can withstand volatility, not for funds seeking stability. Fundamentals: Three hard logics • Performance upgrades are being delivered: Firedancer's independent validator client is now available in the early mainnet version (200+ validator nodes, with tensor tests exceeding one million TPS), addressing single-client risk; The Alpenglow consensus upgrade (phased in August–October) reduces final confirmation from 12.8 seconds to 100–150 milliseconds, approaching the Visa experience, and is a key prerequisite for institutional-level settlement-grade applications. • Ecosystem Remains Intact: Weekly fee revenue for DEXs like Raydium and Orca has recently rebounded (Raydium 24h +87%), stablecoin supply is about 16 billion, RWA/payment/consumer apps continue to be integrated, memecoins are retreating, but real development activity remains. • Institutional channels open: Since the end of 2025, the US spot SOL ETF has accumulated net inflows exceeding $1 billion. More than 30 institutions (including Goldman Sachs and Electro Capital) have held about $540 million in exposure through ETFs, and Morgan Stanley has also issued an SOL ETP. Price and risk: The current awkward position • Technicals: Broadly bearish alignment, prices repeatedly testing key support at $73, above 74.7–75.7 (EMA20/50) acting as a reversal barrier, below 71.6 to target 67–60. • Core Contradiction: On-chain usage, token price not keeping up—usage fee income is not linearly transmitted to SOL burning/value capture; At the same time, although inflation has dropped to the ~1.5% terminal, short-term supply pressures remain. • Main risks: Macro interest rates suppressing high beta, Ethereum L2/Sui/Aptos diversion, institutional concerns caused by past outages, and an excessive proportion of memecoins leading to a "false boom." How to view it • Short-term: $73 is the life-or-death line; if it can't hold back below 76, it's a weak rebound. Breaking 71.6 easily leads to the 60 area. • Medium-term: Alpenglow landing in Q3–Q4 + continued ETF inflows are the biggest variables. If the results are good, there is room for recovery back to 90–100; if the yield is poor, the bottom will continue to be pushed down. • Long-term: If the narrative of "high-performance public chain + consumer payment + RWA" is successfully implemented, SOL will remain the second best smart contract platform candidate after ETH; However, it is recommended to keep your portfolio within 10–20% and not treat it as a core stored value asset. #美日确认联合购汇 #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? KOSPI plunged 5.12% in a single day, with semiconductor heavyweights taking profits Project: Macro (Asian Risk Sentiment) Press release date: 2026-08-03 (Yonhap, Securities Times 09:33) Actual event date: 2026-08-03 (Monday Asian session) Confirmed facts: KOSPI closed down 338 points, or -5.12%, at 6,257.45 on 8/3; previously, on 7/31 (last Friday), KOSPI surged a record 17.91% (SK Hynix hit the daily limit up +30%, a historic first). On early trading on August 3, SK Hynix fell -8.93%, Samsung Electronics dropped -8.19%; The Nikkei 225 dropped more than 1,200 points (-1.98%). Foreign investors are the largest net sellers of KOSPI constituent stocks, with local funds selling and retail investors buying; The Korean won fell against the US dollar. Background: On 7/31, the US stock storage sector underwent a full adjustment (Kioxia ADR -10%+); South Korea's FSC tightened the threshold for single-share leveraged ETFs starting July 31 (margin of 10 million → 30 million KRW in cash). Project Side's Statement: Not applicable. Third-party data or on-chain evidence: Official report by Yonhap (Yonhap News Agency); Exchange trading data (8/3 trading volume: 270.9 million shares, 26.1 trillion KRW). Market speculation: The high-volatility market driven by semiconductor narratives (profit-taking after a sharp rally on 7/31) mainly transmitted risk sentiment to the crypto market, with a mild response on the day. Potential impact on investment logic: Increased volatility in Asian equity markets may intermittently affect crypto risk appetite, but no direct capital flow has been observed so far. The strongest negative explanation: KOSPI volatility is driven by a single sector (memory chips) and has limited correlation with the crypto market; The total market capitalization for crypto on the day remained +1.1%.Strategy Losses Reduced 1,638 BTC ("Never Sell" Shifts to Active Capital Management) Project: BTC Press release date: 2026-08-03 (Zhitong Finance 21:xx, citing SEC 8-K file) Actual event date: As of the week of 2026-08-02 (8-K disclosure range) Confirmed facts: Strategy (MSTR.US) filed an 8-K with the SEC on 8/3: sold 1,638 BTC for a total of $104.73 million as of the week of 8/2, with an average sale price of $63,957. The average selling price is about 15% lower than the company's overall holding cost of $75,419, resulting in a book loss of about $11,462 per coin ("loss-making reduction"). Proceeds from the sale: $52.4 million to pay dividends on preferred stock, and $52.3 million for repurchasing STRC preferred shares. During the same period, 3,011,361 MSTR shares were issued via ATM, raising a net raise of approximately $290.6 million ($250 million injected into US dollar reserves, $28.9 million repurchased from STRC, and $11.7 million in cash supplement). As of August 2, the reserve balance reached $4 billion; Cash-out authorizations were raised from $1.25 billion in early July to $5 billion (4 times); CEO Phong Le stated that since the beginning of the year, he has bought 174,895 BTC and sold 3,620 BTC, with a total holding of about 840,000 BTC. Project team statement: This is active capital management under the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," not panic selling; Michael Saylor said the ceiling is $5 billion, and the total may be even higher. Third-party data or on-chain evidence: SEC 8-K filings (original data relayed by Zhitong Finance). Market speculation: Top holders of listed companies have become net sellers, possibly creating a temporary psychological suppression; However, compared to 840,000 coins, the weekly 1,638 tokens account for a very low proportion. Potential impact on investment logic: weakening the narrative of "BTC never sells"; If the $5 billion cash-out plan is fully executed (about 78,000 equivalents), it will be a continuing source of marginal selling pressure, requiring follow-up weekly 8-K movements. The strongest negative explanation: The purpose of reducing shares is to pay preferred stock dividends and buyback (financial engineering), not to be bearish on BTC itself; The weekly average price of $63,957 is higher than the current market price, indicating that the selling point is close to the market range.US-Iran Negotiations — US Claims Restart vs. Iranian Official Denial (Major Macro Factors, Directly Affecting Risk Appetite) Project: Macro (BTC/ETH Risk Assets) Press release date: 2026-08-03 (Trump has made multiple statements); 2026-08-04 08:48 (Xinhua International via Tencent reprint: Strait of Hormuz to open as early as the 4th) Actual event date: 2026-08-03 (Trump made statements at the White House, posted on social media); There is debate over whether the negotiations themselves actually took place Confirmed facts: On August 3, Trump told the media at the White House that the U.S. and Iran "are in dialogue," calling it Iran's "last chance" to sign the agreement, and threatening "decapitation" action if no agreement is reached; He said the negotiations are divided into two stages: the first phase is opening the Strait of Hormuz ("as soon as tomorrow," i.e., fully opening on 8/4), and the second stage discusses Iran's denuclearization. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz is "fully controlled by the U.S. Navy," and under the U.S. blockade (the "steel barrier"), Iranian ports will continue to be blockaded unless an agreement is reached or Iran surrenders. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagha'e explicitly denied on 8/3: Iran is currently not negotiating with the United States, and in the coming days will neither receive foreign delegations nor send delegations abroad for talks; At present, Iran is only negotiating strait control with Oman, planning to convert the southern/northern route into an "intermediate route." Project team statement: The U.S. side (Trump) claims negotiations have resumed; Iran officially denies (the conflict over Kalibr). Third-party data or on-chain evidence: No direct on-chain evidence; Oil prices and shipping data are not within the scope of this round of verification and will be supplemented later. Market speculation: If the Strait of Hormuz opens, geopolitical risk premiums will decline, which would theoretically benefit risk assets; However, Iran has denied negotiations, and the situation remains uncertain. Potential impact on investment logic: Geopolitical conflicts were a major suppressive factor in the crypto market in July; Substantive progress in negotiations may ease risk aversion, but the caliber conflict suggests the situation could be reversible. The strongest negative explanation: Iran denies negotiations and only consults with Oman; the U.S. statements may be exaggerated or used as pressure rhetoric; The strait "opened on 8/4" has not yet received any independent confirmation.2026-08-04 Crypto Daily Market Scan 1. Today's conclusion Overall market environment: BTC is narrowly consolidating near $63.5K (24h +0.55%, 7d -0.11%), with a total crypto market cap of about $2.27T; Sharp volatility in Asian stock markets (KOSPI single-day -5.12%) indicates unstable risk sentiment, but the crypto market reacted relatively mildly. The biggest change confirmed today: the US-Iran negotiations have seen a unilateral U.S. claim to restart while Iran officially denies the caliber; Trump said the Strait of Hormuz could "open as early as 8/4"; Strategy reduced its holdings by 1,638 BTC during the week of the 8-K file (average price $63,957, below the position cost of $75,419). Projects most needing further review: ASTER 8/17 unlock exists with multiple conflicts such as Tokenomics.com (46.95M) and CoinLaunch (164.7M); HYPE 8/6 unlock with ongoing multi-cussion conflicts (430,000 vs 9.92 million vs 6.43 million). Significant risks have been verified: no new security incidents or regulatory actions have been discovered; Aave KelpDAO's bad debts are old news from April; CoinGecko pushed it again on 8/4, but no new information. Is it recommended to initiate a long-term investment judgment review: No. Neither today's price nor fundamental indicators have triggered the set thresholds, and there is insufficient evidence to initiate a review.Firefly Trading | Micron Technology MU Market Analysis As one of the world's top three storage manufacturers, Micron's current rally is driven by the storage supercycle driven by AI computing power. HBM capacity shortages combined with long-term order lockdowns by leading cloud vendors have led to explosive growth in performance, with the market attempting to break free from the traditional cyclical stock valuation framework. The risks are equally clear: HBM lags behind Hynix and Samsung, with huge cumulative stock price gains and significant pressure to cash out; The slope of storage price increases is very likely to slow marginally. The market is currently in a high-level oscillating range, so blindly chasing higher prices is no longer appropriate. Closely monitor HBM supply and demand prices, overseas tech companies' computing power capital expenditure expectations, and be wary of high U.S. Treasury yields suppressing overvalued tech assets. Trade strictly controls position size and waits for deterministic signals. #美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? $MU Three words moved the market last night! Musk endorses SPCX, sentiment rebounds but mid-term game remains unchanged The biggest variable in the US stock market last night came from Musk's extremely brief statement. An investor posted that SPCX's deep correction this round will be seen as a historic buying opportunity in the future. Musk directly confirmed with a comment: I think so. Just three words instantly reversed the intraday sentiment. SPCX quickly rose from a historic low of $104.83, rebounding nearly 6% in a single day, short sellers were violently squeezed in the short term, and market sentiment was rapidly restored. But the biggest mistake in capital markets is to mistake a sentiment turning point for a trend reversal. It must be objectively clarified: This is not an official increase in holdings, not a performance boost, not a strategic implementation, just the founder's emotional endorsement. It can save short-term oversold conditions, repair panic, and crush extreme short sellers, but it cannot offset two fatal mid-term pressures. First, the first quarterly report will be released tonight. All stories and beliefs ultimately have to be priced by revenue, gross margin, capital expenditure, and business guidance. Sentiment cannot sustain fundamentals; the expectation gap is the real dividing line between bulls and bears. Second, the epic unlocking peak arrives the day after tomorrow. Hundreds of billions worth of low-cost chips will be unlocked and enter the market; original shareholders have extremely low holding costs, and even at current prices, profits remain substantial. This is a structural, irreversible selling pressure; verbal good news cannot hedge the supply-demand reversal caused by expanded chips. The current market status is very clear: Oversold + big-name endorsement = short-term rebound; High valuation + continuous cash burn + massive unlocking = mid-term pressure. Sentiment can temporarily save the stock price, but the bubble clearing will not easily end. This rebound is a typical sentiment repair before bad news lands, not a trend reversal. Short-term shorts retreat, but mid-term bearish logic remains valid. The real direction does not depend on Musk's statements but on financial reports, unlocking, and real fundamentals.Bitcoin: Native, why $40k won't be the bottom. Just technical facts. I emphasized this back in March. Now is a great time to release again. Almost every sane trader on CT sees $40k as a bottom target. This is understandable—all trading concepts are based on historical data logic, and past cycle bottoms have been near the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That's where $40k came from. But here are some facts that the framework overlooks: 1. In any past bear market, prices have never traded cleanly below the previous cycle's high. The 2021 peak was at $65k. 2. Returns decrease sharply with each cycle. 2017→2021 high: +250%. 2021→2025 high: +82%. The amplitude of deep Fibonacci drawdowns that created that level no longer exists. 3. Price behavior has undergone a structural transformation. During this cycle, the market never traded as a whole—liquidity never rotated from BTC to other assets. Mathematical models of old cycles are being applied to markets that no longer operate like old cycles. So as early as January, I reached a simple conclusion: HTF support/resistance levels and liquidity are more important here than any other indicator. Tracking liquidity, BTC has only two clear value zones: the $75k-55k range, and the $30k-25k range. Between them is the 2021 price range and a gap, where the price only crossed vertically once and never established value there. That's the whole argument. BTC will not bottom out at $40k, because $40k is not a level but a void. Either hold $55k, or the price must dig all the way down to $29k—the 2021 range low plus gap filling. There is no middle ground. This is exactly why the $40k faction will wait at a level where prices are respected without reason.#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 The Korean stock market took a heavy hit yesterday with a bearish candlestick, as the KOSPI fell 5.13% for the day, breaking below the 6200-point mark. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plunged nearly 9%, together accounting for more than half of the index's decline. Interestingly, just last Friday, these two stocks experienced a violent surge—Samsung rose 14% intraday, and Hynix surged over 28%. Within a week, they went from a wild rally to a crash; this volatility is explosive even by global market standards. The trigger for this sell-off is clear: South Korean financial authorities simultaneously hinted at brewing "emergency measures," potentially capping the leverage multiplier for single-stock leveraged ETFs at 1.5x, while also planning to impose investment limits and mandatory simulated trading. With leverage tools tightened, short-term funds fled, with foreign investors net selling 2.83 trillion KRW, institutions following with 1.95 trillion KRW, and retail investors alone absorbing 4.65 trillion KRW in purchases, unable to hold the market. However, a detail on the market deserves a closer look: the KOSDAQ index bucked the trend, rising 2.44% that day, with the biopharmaceutical and robotics sectors collectively exploding. Stocks like Alteogen and Rainbow Robotics posted double-digit gains. The money didn’t leave the Korean stock market; it just shifted direction. The robotics sector has industrial logic behind it—tightened U.S. restrictions on Chinese robot imports have revived the market’s interest in Korean substitutes, pushing Hyundai Mobis and Rainbow Robotics upward. Biopharmaceuticals have always been the ballast for KOSDAQ; when stocks like Alteogen and HLB rally, the index follows suit. Back to the main theme of memory storage, bulls and bears are currently talking past each other. Bears cite regulatory deleveraging and Kioxia’s earnings missing expectations, leading the market to question whether HBM demand growth is slowing. Last Friday’s 18% surge in the index was labeled a technical rebound driven by squeezed leveraged funds, with profit-taking concentrated. Bulls, however, hold strong cards: SK Hynix just delivered the best quarterly results in company history, AI data centers have not eased their HBM purchases, and Microsoft and Amazon are still increasing capital expenditures on computing power. Nomura raised Samsung’s operating profit forecast for 2028 to 770 trillion KRW, while BofA Merrill Lynch more directly stated Samsung’s long-term contract pricing mechanism is "limited downside, unlimited upside," expecting storage demand to keep rising through 2028. Morgan Stanley also upgraded the Korean stock market rating this week, setting a year-end target of 9000 points, citing "more than half of deleveraging already done." Their logic is that KOSPI has retraced nearly 30% from its June high, valuations are compressed to single-digit PE for 2027, spot prices are still rising, fundamentals remain intact, and what’s collapsed is sentiment. Roundhill’s DRAM fund reduced its Samsung position by about $432 million last week while adding Yangtze Memory Technologies, signaling that Chinese memory manufacturers are carving out a piece of the global supply chain, and the long-term competitive landscape is indeed changing. South Korean regulators’ move appears to target leveraged ETFs on the surface, but behind the scenes, they seem to be trying to realign the chip structure. Once leverage multiples are compressed, there will be short-term pain, but after clearing chips, the market structure will be much healthier. In the memory storage sector, AI computing capital expenditure has yet to hit a ceiling, the HBM supply gap won’t be filled in the short term, and SK Hynix and Samsung’s long-term supply contracts have locked capacity through around 2030. This is a logic that sentiment alone cannot break. The decisive capital shift in KOSDAQ shows that internal liquidity in the Korean market remains, just temporarily flowing out of storage to find new breakout points. At this point, who is right or wrong between bulls and bears is less important; the key is to clearly see that the long cycle of the memory industry is not over. After the last memory cycle bottom was confirmed, although most of the price increase benefits were eaten up, the incremental market for HBM is just beginning to scale. The regulatory deleveraging, the short-term pit it creates, may in hindsight mark the starting point of chip concentration. The Korean stock market’s nearly 30% drop from the high, set against an improving industry outlook, is a significant correction. The long-term contracts of the memory giants, HBM’s technical barriers, and the sustained AI computing arms race—all these hard fundamentals remain. Sentiment disturbances will eventually pass. Going forward, focus on HBM shipment data and capital expenditure plans from original manufacturers; once signals become clear, the market’s balance will tilt again.#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Palantir's blockbuster earnings report is out, with Q2 revenue soaring 93% year-over-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, and the stock jumped 13% after hours. U.S. commercial business surged 149% year-over-year, AI commercialization continues to explode, the company raised its full-year guidance, and expects growth to continue for at least 18 months. Many people see the big rise in U.S. stocks and are ready to rush into Bitcoin, but here’s the core point from Coin Brother: don’t let the positive news from U.S. stocks mislead your rhythm! First, the positive sentiment: Palantir is a highly elastic growth stock, and the explosive earnings growth indicates that current capital risk appetite has somewhat recovered. The Nasdaq AI sector stabilizing can provide a mild volatile environment for Bitcoin, with short-term sentiment-driven effects. However, many overlook a key point, which Coin Brother emphasizes as a hidden risk: Palantir specializes in on-chain data tracking and fund tracing, and has long-term cooperation with U.S. regulatory agencies. Under the global trend of tightening crypto regulations, this company will continue to benefit, which in the mid-to-long term is a latent negative for our crypto market—most retail investors won’t dig into this. In practical terms, Coin Brother’s consistent trading philosophy is: individual stock positive news cannot change Bitcoin’s original trend. Don’t chase Bitcoin just because U.S. stocks are soaring; news-driven spikes only affect short-term sentiment. There are two clear scenarios: If the Nasdaq continues to stabilize and strengthen, a pullback to key support levels can be a small position buying opportunity; If it’s just a one-day pulse for individual stocks, followed by a market rally and then a drop, the positive news is a sell signal—never chase the highs. Another major risk, Coin Brother reminds everyone to remember: Palantir’s valuation has long priced in future growth. If future earnings growth falls short of expectations, the stock price will face a sharp sell-off, triggering a chain reaction that drags down global risk assets. Bitcoin will hardly remain unaffected, so risk control bottom lines must not be relaxed. Coin Brother’s final conclusion: This is merely a short-term sentiment boost, with no momentum to start a major rally. At this stage, continue to maintain a range-bound trading approach, avoid impulsive trades based on news, better to miss out than to chase recklessly, and always wait for volume and price signals on the chart before considering adding positions.Last week, two top crypto treasury firms took completely opposite trading strategies—one selling, the other buying—but the numbers on their books didn't look good. Let's first look at MicroStrategy. This former "Bitcoin dead long" has made a move again after a month, selling 1,638 BTC last week at an average price of $63,957, cashing out about $105 million. However, this price is $11,462 lower than its overall holding cost, resulting in a single trade losing about $18.77 million. Currently, MicroStrategy still holds 842,138 BTC, with an average cost of $75,419, and a floating loss of $10.8 billion, a loss of about 17%. $BTC On the other hand, Bitmine continues its Ethereum strategy of "buying more as it falls." Last week, it spent about $19.85 million to replenish 10,399 ETH at an average price of $1,909. The company now holds nearly 5.8 million ETH, valued at about $10.67 billion, but with an average cost as high as $3,371, resulting in an unrealized loss of $8.87 billion—a loss of 45.4%—much more severe than MicroStrategy. $ETH It is worth noting that since Bitmine launched its ETH accumulation strategy, it has maintained a weekly buying rhythm without interruption. On one side, former firm bulls are starting to loosen their holdings; on the other, the new "coin hoarders" are still gritting their teeth to take over. The disagreements among institutions may be more insightful than the candlestick chart reveals.📊 Bitcoin Market Update | BTC Consolidates Around $63.4K Bitcoin (BTC) continues trading near $63,400, with volatility contracting as the market waits for its next major move. 🔍 Key Drivers 🏦 Strategy has added more BTC at an average price near $63.2K, reinforcing long-term institutional confidence. 💼 A small test transaction from Mt. Gox wallets has revived concerns about potential selling pressure, although no major distribution has been confirmed. 📉 Markets are increasingly pricing in a September Fed rate cut, providing a supportive macro backdrop for risk assets. ⛓️ On-Chain Picture Exchange BTC balances remain near multi-year lows, while long-term holders continue accumulating. This suggests available supply remains tight despite short-term market uncertainty. 📈 Technical Levels Resistance: $64,500 Support: $62,000 The tightening price range indicates that a larger directional move may be approaching. 🎯 Market Outlook For now, BTC remains in a consolidation phase. A high-volume break above $64.5K would strengthen the bullish case, while a loss of $62K could increase the risk of a deeper pullback. Bottom Line: Bitcoin is showing patience rather than weakness. Let the breakout be confirmed by price, volume, and momentum before chasing the next move. #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #SOL #Crypto #Trading #DailyOrbit What does $GPS do? GoPlus is positioned as: Providing a "Security Layer" for Blockchain Simply put: * Detect malicious contracts * Detect Pixiu coins * Detect scam addresses * Detect authorization risks * Provides secure APIs for wallets and DEXs Its services have already integrated multiple wallets and DeFi applications, including ecosystem partners such as MetaMask and Trust Wallet. Advantages 1. The track is authentic Security is a fundamental necessity for the entire Web3 community. Whether bull or bear: * Wallets require security checks * DEXs require risk control * AI Agents require secure interfaces In theory, demand has been long-term. 2. Actual products available Not just a simple PPT project. Officials disclosed that its security system covers more than 40 chains and handles a large number of security requests monthly. Risk analysis Biggest risk: token release GPS has experienced a long unlocking cycle. Unlocking increases the circulating market share and puts pressure on prices. There will still be unlocks in 2026 that influence market sentiment. Second risk: The safety track is not attractive Market likes: * AI * Meme * RWA * Robots Security projects often have solid fundamentals but receive relatively little attention from capital. Therefore, it is easy to: * Yin Di * Sideways trading * Losing to popular narratives Is there suspicion of manipulation by the big players? My judgment: Market makers are involved But it doesn't belong to the previous one: * LAB * CAP * SLX That highly controlled mode. Causes: GPS has been listed on major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and Bitget, with trading depths far exceeding those of smaller coins. There have been issues with market makers Public information shows that GPS once attracted market attention due to the behavior of a market maker, after which Binance removed the related monitoring tags. This indicates: * Market makers do exist * Previously affected the price * However, the project does not unilaterally control the market Looking at the trend characteristics, If a coin has been around for a long time: * Unlimited volume rally by 300% * No news and an 80% plunge * Highly concentrated on-chain holdings Typically, the probability of controlling the market is high. GPS is more often reflected in: * Unlock drops * Sector rotation and decline * Market sentiment influences This is closer to the normal trend of the altcoin. Looking ahead The bull market continues GPS may benefit from: * Growing demand for Web3 security * AI Agent security requirements * More wallet integration It is a medium-elasticity target. If it's a bear market GPS is also hard to remain unaffected. The safe track is usually not the preferred direction for capital inflows.$BTC reclaimed 63K to start August as US stocks opened strong, but I am not calling this a breakout yet. It feels more like relief than conviction. Equities are steady, oil is rolling over, and risk appetite is creeping back. Crypto is trying to follow, but the backdrop is still messy. Liquidity is thin, ETF flows are all over the place, and a Coldcard firmware vulnerability just cost holders tens of millions across several attacks. That does not compromise Bitcoin itself, but it is a sharp reminder that operational risk lives right next to market risk and it keeps people cautious. On the institutional side nothing has stopped. Strategy is doing what it always does, selling Bitcoin and using the proceeds to buy back preferred shares. BlackRock is pushing further into tokenized cash products on chain. So the plumbing keeps getting built even while prices chop. We also saw DEX volume share hit a new all time high in July, which tells you money is still moving on chain instead of sitting in cash. How I am reading it: we are in a mid cycle digestion. Bitcoin is testing the area around the 200 week moving average to see if it can hold as real support. Ethereum is consolidating with quiet accumulation underneath. Solana, XRP and BNB are moving with the broader tape but are not leading on their own. Cardano looks relatively strong on roadmap updates. Algo, Injective and Ethena are picking up selective interest. Link, Polkadot, Avalanche and Dogecoin will swing hard with any change in risk sentiment. Even Hype and Uniswap are just reflecting the same liquidity and positioning we see everywhere else. This is not a green light for a sustained rally. August has a weak track record for Bitcoin, ETF demand has been inconsistent, and we still have the CLARITY Act timeline hanging over us plus earnings from Circle and others coming up. Add the geopolitical noise around Iran and you have plenty of reasons to stay measured.#PalantirQ2Earnings #BigTechEarningsWatch #30YrYieldTopOrStart 🚨 Please don't fall into this trap!! $SPCX The company's first-ever financial report. August 4th, after the market closed. Everyone is watching the revenue numbers. But they were staring at the wrong thing. Because two days after this report was released, something far more important would happen than any number—and almost no one priced it up. Lock-up period unlocked. Up to 911 million shares will be released. This will more than double the tradable circulating supply. Think carefully. The numbers might look good. Revenue was approximately $6.8 billion. Starlink is making money. But the trap no one can escape is: "Good earnings": The rise has become the exit liquidity that insiders can finally sell. "Bad financial report": Weak + doubling liquidity = trapgate. There was no clean bullish path this week.Here is a simple and clear price prediction post for **$AERO/USDT** (Perpetual) based on your daily (1D) chart: ## 📉 $AERO/USDT Price Prediction (Daily Chart) **Current Price:** $0.4068 **Key Levels:** * **Support (Floor):** $0.4049 (MA5) / $0.3885 (24h Low & Key Bottom Support) * **Immediate Resistance (Roof):** $0.4076 (24h High) / $0.4179 (MA10) / $0.4297 (MA20) * **Major Target:** $AERO 0.4800 – $0.6096 (Previous Swing High) ### 🔍 Market Analysis * **Long Downtrend Phase:** AERO has faced strong selling pressure over the last 30 days (-28.19%), sliding down from its July peak of **$0.6096**. * **Trapped Below Resistance:** The price remains underneath the 10-day (**MA10: $0.4179**) and 20-day (**MA20: $0.4297**) moving averages, which act as strong resistance overhead. * **Attempting to Floor Out:** The price is hovering right on top of its 5-day moving average (**MA5: $0.4049**), posting a small green candle (+1.38% today) right off the **$0.3885** bottom. This shows sellers are losing speed and buyers are trying to build a base. ### 🚀 Best Case Scenario (Bullish Relief) If buyers hold **$0.3885** and push above **$0.4179** (MA10): 1. **First Target:** $0.4297 (MA20 Resistance) 2. **Second Target:** $0.4800 – $0.5200 (Breakout Zone) ### 📉 Risk Scenario (Bearish Continuation) If the price breaks down below **$0.3885**, expect the downtrend to extend down toward the **$0.3500 – $0.3200** support zone. > **Summary:** AERO is trying to stop the bleed near **$0.40**! A strong daily close above **$0.4180** is required to trigger a relief rally toward **$0.43+**. > *Disclaimer: This post is for social sharing and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Trade responsibly!*$AERO The US stock optical interconnect sector is worth buying! This sector is the earliest and longest-lasting semiconductor adjustment in this round, and there is currently a clear gap in expectations; The demand for AI data center interconnection is real and accelerating, and the entire industry chain has moved from demand verification to a supply bottleneck. Two recent catalysts are Nvidia's Senior Vice President announcing that CPOs have officially entered mass production and began delivery and deployment, and Lumentum's CEO has clearly stated that the shortage of indium phosphide lasers brought by AI will be more severe than the memory crisis. In terms of technical approach, copper cables and pluggable cables remain dominant within racks, while CPO is the first to penetrate cross-rack systems. Pluggable devices will dominate the next 18-24 months and coexist with CPO at least until 2027, with the ultimate bottleneck locked in indium phosphide laser chip capacity. Related stocks include $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, AXTI, AAOI, etc. Keep an eye on the intensive earnings reporting period over the next two weeks. If further verification is confirmed, it will be a catalyst for an upward trend! Same drop, different speed Put the data together and get a sense of it: Bitcoin fell 54% — in 268 days Silver fell 54% — after 169 days SanDisk (SNDK) fell 55% — after 36 days SK Hynix fell 53% — after 34 days Similarly, semiconductors have seen a halved-level pullback, moving seven to eight times faster than crypto and precious metals. From 268 days to 34 days, the intensity of this round of storage adjustments is truly impressive.#Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours up 13% Palantir's earnings report is indeed solid. After hours on August 3, the company released impressive data — Q2 total revenue surged to $1.94 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase, surpassing the market expectation of $1.81 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.41, also beating the expected $0.35. The stock price jumped 13% to 14% after hours, reaching as high as $142.91. The data itself is strong, but what's truly interesting is the structural logic behind this rally. The U.S. commercial business was the absolute star this quarter — revenue soared 149% year-over-year to $764 million, setting a company record. The U.S. government business also performed well, growing 90% year-over-year to $809 million. Both segments exploded simultaneously, not relying on a single growth driver. The total contract value signed this quarter reached $3.37 billion, up 49% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial clients contributing $2.13 billion. The U.S. market's overall revenue grew 115% year-over-year to $1.57 billion, increasing its share of total revenue from 73% last year to 81%. GAAP net profit exceeded $1 billion for the first time in Q2, reaching $1.062 billion, with a profit margin around 55%. The Rule of 40 hit 155% — companies in the software industry that achieve nearly double-digit growth combined with over 60% adjusted profit margin can be counted on one hand. Adjusted free cash flow surpassed $1 billion in a single quarter for the first time, reaching $1.22 billion. The full-year revenue guidance was raised from the original $7.65 billion–$7.66 billion to $8.15 billion–$8.158 billion, an increase of nearly $500 million. The full-year adjusted operating profit forecast was raised to $4.89 billion–$4.91 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' previous expectations of about $4.5 billion. CEO Alex Karp stated plainly in his letter to shareholders — the quarterly performance is impressive for any company, and even more so for a company of Palantir's size. Why can the commercial side achieve such growth? The scalable deployment of the AIP platform is key. Customers are no longer in a "try it out" mindset but are deploying at scale in real production environments. One observation Karp repeatedly emphasizes is that enterprises are increasingly unwilling to contribute their core data and decision logic to general large models for training. They want AI that is controllable, auditable, and directly generates economic value. Palantir's solution allows customers to deploy, customize, and run AI models on their own infrastructure while retaining full data ownership. This is a completely different path from those AI companies selling token usage — Karp's exact words are "Our engineers stationed on client sites are not selling tokens." The number and size of large contracts also illustrate this. This quarter, 220 deals over $1 million were signed, including 98 deals over $5 million and 73 deals over $10 million. An unnamed multinational tech company expanded a single business line pilot into a nearly $370 million three-year contract. The conversion path from "try" to "all in" has been proven. The number of U.S. commercial clients reached 653, up 35% year-over-year. Remaining performance obligations soared from $1.9 billion a year ago to $4.45 billion — these are amounts from signed contracts not yet recognized as revenue, serving as a "reservoir" for future performance. The government side is also increasing investment. The Maven project was listed by the Pentagon as an "official in-program project," included in future annual defense plans with long-term budget allocations. The Pentagon awarded $480 million in contracts for 2024, with a cap raised to $1.3 billion in May 2025. In summer 2025, a deal worth up to $10 billion was signed with the U.S. Army. In February 2026, the Department of Homeland Security signed a five-year framework agreement with a maximum of $1 billion. Government business is not just "stable" but continuously expanding. This rally reflects a shift in the AI market from "buying chips" to "buying application software" — capital is starting to favor those who can consistently deliver cash flow. Palantir is deeply integrated with the U.S. government and military-industrial system, and with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, its orders have strong resilience. Citi analysts set a target price of $225 before the earnings report, and HSBC research earlier forecasted a 58.8% compound annual growth rate in U.S. commercial client revenue from 2025 to 2029, reaching $9.3 billion in 2029. Overall, analysts are mostly bullish, with an average target price around $181. Many previously only focused on the stock price dropping 30% this year — but don't forget this stock rose 167% in 2023, 340% in 2024, and 135% in 2025. After more than tenfold growth over three years, a correction is normal in a growth stock's lifecycle. The key is that fundamentals are still accelerating — revenue growth climbed from 39% in Q1 2025 to 93% now. U.S. market revenue growth rose from 55% in Q1 2025 quarter-over-quarter to 104% in Q1 2026. High growth combined with high profit margins is extremely rare in the software industry. The company also holds about $8 billion in cash and U.S. Treasury bonds with no debt. This is not a company still burning cash telling stories; it has entered a stage of proving value through cash flow. Palantir delivered not just an earnings beat but validated a real path for AI deployment — not by selling computing power or tokens, but by helping enterprises use AI effectively within their own data environments. The potential of this path may be much larger than many think.Looking at ETH's popularity and tone separately, what has truly changed in this hour? ETH's numbers seem directional, but the sample size reminds us not to overestimate the proportions. In the official snapshot of 01:00 (China time) on August 4, OKX Onchain OS recorded 21 mentions of ETH in one hour, including 18 times for X and 3 for news; A total of 309 times in twenty-four hours. The latest hourly speed is 1.63 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is about 63% higher than the 24-hour average, which is considered a "noticeable acceleration" overall. This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or flow data. In terms of tone, 43% are slightly bullish within one hour, 19% bearish, and about 38% neutral, so currently, the trend is clearly 'bullish dominance.' The 24-hour correspondence ratio is 39% slightly bullish and 21% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage. What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 21 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Retweets, quotes, and news retellings may all be talking about the same thing. You can write the position as long or bearish as is, but it shouldn't be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction. Currently, ETH's source structure is "mainly driven by X." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still scarce, it feels more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials will be available, and you still need to return to the original announcements from foundations, agreements, regulators, or trading platforms to confirm details. The 24-hour source background is 272 times and 37 times news. Comparing it with 18.3 times per hour shows whether the new round of discussion has shifted its distribution channels. Channel changes themselves are neither positive nor negative, but they do affect the speed and verifiability of information. For ETH, community signals are best cross-checked with two independent data lines. Network usage allows users to view transaction fees, active addresses, L2 settlements, and staking changes; Market structure depends on spot trading, futures basis, funding rates, and options skew. Any of these are closer to real needs than a single emotional proportion. The 24-hour average also smooths out spikes caused by announcements and market sessions. If the latest hour is below the average, it may just be a quieter period; If it is above the average, it may simply be a single event with concentrated fermentation. Two to three consecutive snapshots still in the same direction look more like a continuation rather than instantaneous noise. This set of proportions can easily be rewritten in the next snapshot. Once the sample size is scaled up, if the overly long and empty parts quickly return to close together, it means that a small amount of text was pulling the ball just now; If the tone gap is maintained and the speed continues to rise, and there is on-chain usage or transaction data to support this, then confidence will have reason to go upward. This round of ETH doesn't need to be forced into a conclusion. Discussions clearly accelerated, and the tone was clearly more prevalent. The main source was X, so just remember these three points first. It has yet to prove a breakout, net capital inflow, or change in on-chain demand; Whether the next round of samples can still be established after expanding is the real issue.🚨 $BTC at 63K — The last bargain entry before the bull market halving! 💥 Entry: 63,434.31 ⚡ Target 1:66,620.04 🚀 Goal 2: 69,792.43 🚀 Stop loss: 61,544.23 ⚠️ 📌 The institutional capital footprint at this level is very clear. Around 63k, large funds are quietly accumulating, while retail investors freeze for the so-called "better" confirmation—but it never comes. 📊 The timeline of the halving catalyst supports structural repricing, and this area is well below the area where macro-level order flow plans are expected to reach. 💡 When the macro picture is so clear, overanalyzing micro-level swings is how traders hand over their positions to the masses. Here, the risk-reward ratio (R:R) is sharp, and the trading direction is supported by known catalysts. 💬 Are you opening a position before insertion (before it extends to the lower shadow), or are you chasing in after it hits 70k? 👇 ⚠️ This is not financial advice. Be sure to manage your risk 🛡️ 🏷️ #BTC #LongSetup #Halving #Crypto #Breakout 📈 Cardano (ADA) Market Update | Whale Buying Meets Network Progress Cardano (ADA) recently climbed nearly 10%, outperforming much of the broader crypto market. The rally appears to be driven by a combination of strong on-chain accumulation and continued network development, rather than a single headline. 🐋 1. Whale Accumulation Large wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA reportedly accumulated around 240 million ADA (worth roughly $175 million) within a few days. Such accumulation during a relatively quiet market often signals growing confidence from long-term investors and reduces available supply on the market. ⚙️ 2. Network Upgrade Progress Cardano continues advancing its long-term roadmap. Recent protocol improvements enhanced: Better Plutus smart contract performance Improved ledger consistency Stronger node security The network has now entered the Dijkstra development era, where the focus shifts toward greater scalability through technologies such as Ouroboros Leios and other throughput enhancements. These upgrades are expected to roll out in phases through 2026, strengthening Cardano's long-term fundamentals. 📊 Market Outlook The recent move reflects both smart-money accumulation and fundamental network progress, making it more than just a short-lived news-driven rally. Short-term: Watch whether ADA can maintain support above the recent breakout area with strong trading volume. A failure to hold key levels could trigger profit-taking and a pullback. Mid-to-long term: The outlook will depend on successful implementation of the Dijkstra roadmap, increasing developer activity, and real-world ecosystem adoption. ⚠️ Risk Reminder: Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile. Always manage risk, avoid chasing sharp rallies, and wait for confirmation before making trading decisions. #ADA #Cardano #Crypto #Blockchain #Altcoins #Whales #Trading #DailyOrbit 🚀 $BNB /USDT – Momentum Breakout Setup 📊 Trade Setup • Bias: 🟢 LONG • Current Price: 589.45 (+0.75%) • Entry: 585.50 • Stop Loss: 562.08 🎯 Take Profit • TP: 596.00 💡 Analysis: BNB continues to hold above its 25-day SMA, reflecting sustained buying interest as trading volume gradually strengthens. The current structure favors further upside if bulls maintain control above key support, although volatility remains elevated. ⚠️ Risk Note: This is a high-volatility setup. Consider using a smaller position size and proper risk management. ⚠️ Disclaimer: NFA – For educational purposes only. #PalantirQ2Earnings #BigTechEarningsWatch #30YrYieldTopOrStart Honestly, don't expect all altcoins to take off 🎯 at once during this cycle. I scanned the custom list; most coins stayed completely still, only a very few quietly climbed 🤔. This is not a broad-based rally, but a typical liquidity rotation 🔄. There is only so much capital; it cannot feed every project. Smart money only drills into targets with real narrative depth and can repeatedly enter and exit; the rest without volume support is a stagnant pool — no pump, no exit 😅 Here are my observations 👇 🔺 Clear inflows (if they're on your list, focus on them): $JTO / $JELLYJELLY / $BTC / $OPG / $BTCSLX / $LAB / $BSB / $ALLO / $CHIP 🔻 Momentum is running low (catching flying knives is extremely difficult): $BEAT / $EDGE / $COAI / $TRUMP / $RAVE / $SPACE / $SOPH / $IP / $AVNT / $ZAMA / $OFC / $PIEVERSE / $VIRTUAL / $ACU / $H / $MEGA 📌 Observation Group (Signal Watching and Others): $MEME / $EDEN / $HUMA / $ZKP / $METIS To be honest, the market foundation hasn't changed 🧱 $BTC No need to say more—it's the master switch 💡 for the whole venue $ETH is clearly accumulating shares slowly, while whales quietly take action 🐳 $SOL remains the preferred L1 🚀 track for high-volatility trading $TAO + $WLD are currently the two toughest choices 🤖 in AI narratives $HYPE is a thermometer of risk appetite—just keep an eye on it 🌡️ $DOGE + $ZEC is the most direct indicator 📊 of retail investor interest My biggest insight: the truly important market always happens before 🥩 the Twitter frenzy arrives. When everyone is shouting a certain coin, either it's already at the top or you're taking over 😂 So I only do three things: keep a close eye on capital flows, go with the flow, and block out noise 🧘. The rest? Let the market answer ⏳ itself NFA. DYOR. 📈Between July 27 and August 2, 2026, 1,638 Bitcoins were sold, cashing out approximately $104.73 million, with an average selling price of about $63,957 per coin. This sale is another operation by the company since breaking the "buy only, not sell" strategy in May 2026, but it is not a passive sell-off due to losses; rather, it is part of its active liquidity management plan. The following is a detailed explanation based on key facts: 1. Latest Sale Transaction Details 1. Transaction Size and Price Sale period: July 27, 2026 to August 2, 2026 (last week). Quantity sold: 1,638 Bitcoins, total sale price $104.73 million, average unit price $63,957. Current holdings: After the sale, the company's total Bitcoin holdings dropped to 842,138, still the world's largest holder of Bitcoin. 2. Sale Purpose: $52.4 million for preferred dividend payments; $52.3 million for repurchasing STRC preferred shares (floating rate perpetual preferred shares). This operation falls under the scope of the company's June 29 announcement of the "Digital Credit Capital Framework" as part of routine liquidity management, not a forced sale due to losses. II. Background and Strategy Logic of the Sale 1. Active Management Alternative to the "Buy Only, Don't Sell" Strategy Since 2020, it has long adhered to the "Buy only, don't sell" strategy, but at the end of May 2026, it sold 32 Bitcoins (about $2.5 million) for dividends for the first time, marking a relaxation of the strategy. June 2026 On-chain AI Agent is regaining popularity, and funds are starting to avoid pure air AI small coins After a period of quiet, the on-chain AI Agent sector has seen capital return, with the latest statistics showing that the total locked value of various on-chain AI agents has surpassed $4.7 billion. There has been a clear shift in market capital trends. Previously, people blindly speculated on various AI concept 'local dogs,' but now funds have become cautious. More and more funds are actively filtering and prioritizing targets that have both public chain infrastructure + on-chain AI implementation products, while small coins with no concept or product are gradually being abandoned by capital. However, it is essential to objectively recognize the current situation: the vast majority of on-chain AI projects still face challenges: lack of real active users and limited implementation scenarios. This round of market activity is more appropriate to define it as a thematic recovery, making it difficult to break out of a long-term one-sided bull market. Track rotation is fast, focusing on short-term gambling; avoid holding at high levels for long periods.$BTC Now there is a very realistic competitor: the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reaching 5.27%. As of August 3, this yield has reached a nearly 19-year high. This year, there have been 27 trading days above 5%, maintaining above 5% for 12 consecutive trading days; The 30-year real yield also reached around 3.0%. At the same time, BTC was trading near $63,800, and ETH was around $1,866. The impact of 5.27% on the crypto world is not just macro news. Long-term bond yields determine the global asset discount benchmark: investors can earn higher returns from dollar assets, and the compensation required for holding highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH will also increase accordingly. More tricky is that the 30-year yield is influenced by fiscal deficits, government bond supply, inflation expectations, and term premiums. Even if the market begins trading rate cuts, long-term rates may not fall in tandem. Next, you can use two signals to check the market: With long-term bond yields falling and BTC still lacking a rebound, this suggests that the pressure comes mainly from the crypto sector's own capital and chip structure; Yields continue to approach 5.4%, yet BTC can hold near $63,000, indicating that the selling pressure from high interest rates is being absorbed. Overlaying BTC prices with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield provides more information than focusing solely on a single crypto candlestick. #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? My automatic bottom-fishing robot has gone several rounds without opening a single order—when it keeps quiet, it's often more worth listening to than when it's shouting. Looking at the market first, BTC is currently at 62,528, down 0.93% in 24h. F&G is stuck at 28 for Fear, with OI at 111,400, and volume shrinking by 31.3%. This is a typical stagnant situation where no one wants to make a move. Looking at the track field is even more painful: new_call is null, only 2 old positions left in the whole market — I opened ADA on August 2nd with a floating loss of -1.37%, KAITO short on August 3 with a floating loss of -0.81%, and no new orders issued. For BTC, this is not charging up—it's a stalemate. If the model doesn't open new positions, it means volatility hasn't even reached the trigger threshold. At 62,528, it's flat at a level like 62,528, with no incremental stories to tell in the mainstream. Here's something you can take—judge whether you should start now. Look at three lights: (1) Signal density (whether the model issues new orders): If you don't send a new order, don't send it = not enough fluctuations. If you force it manually, you're giving it away; (2) Breadth (6 rises, 9 falls): Without a consensus direction, neither bulls nor bears have confidence; (3) F&G (stuck at 28, no panic): No one short or bottom-fishing, just lying flat. All three lights were completely gray this time, and the conclusion is simple: when the machine shuts up, you should be the one who should shut up. I didn't dare add to my own two old orders. Adding positions would be like pouring cold water on myself from stagnant waters. Just wait, what's the rush? What's truly frightening isn't the drop, but the lack of interest in the drop. Voting with "no trade" is more honest than any needle—no matter how much GRVT jumps, it can't change the underlying pattern of 6 rises and 9 losses throughout the market. Guys, are you still opening new positions with your recent strategy? Or are you just playing dead like me, waiting for the wind to come? Comment section reports on the results. #BTC #ETH #量化 #市场情绪 #合约 #自动交易 #OKX星球 #存量博弈 #行情分析 #FOMO Deutsche Bank has taken a bold step in raising its earnings forecast for the S&P 500 this time. According to the latest report on August 3, they raised the S&P 500's 2026 earnings per share forecast from $342 to $358 in one go, and raised the 2027 figure from $390 to $420. $GRVT The direct driving force behind the upward revision comes from the just-concluded Q2 earnings season. Here's a surprising statistic: among S&P 500 constituents, 87% of companies have earnings that exceed market expectations, a record-breaking percentage. Overall, the company's profits in the second quarter grew 33% year-on-year, a growth rate considered impressive in any cycle. Even more noteworthy is the changing structure of earnings growth. Over the past two years, the market has been almost entirely supported by a few tech giants, but Deutsche Bank has observed that growth momentum is now spreading across broader industries. In Q2, the company's profit margin hit a record high, and sales remained strong, indicating that this round of profit improvement is not simply supported by layoffs or buybacks, but is supported by genuine demand. $SNDK Of course, bulls will use these data to say "a soft landing is already done," but cautious people will also wonder: after the high base effect passes, can this growth rate be maintained next year? Will the cost pressures of high interest rates become apparent later? The answers to these questions may only become clearer after the third-quarter data is released. At least for now, the resilience shown by enterprises is somewhat more optimistic than most macro indicators. For the market, upward revisions in earnings are always a good thing, but whether the stock price can keep up depends on valuations and sentiment To give you the conclusion: I don't simply interpret this round of BICO pullback as panic sell-off. In the past 12 hours, it first surged about 13%, then pulled back about 15% from its peak, but the trading volume of the three exchanges actually fell short of the previous first-tier long window. What is truly worth watching is not just the decline, but the rapid contraction after the short squeeze and the open interest volume begins to shrink rapidly. Data as of 08:55 on August 4 (Beijing Time). From 21:05 last night to 08:55 this morning, BICO fell approximately 4.78%, 4.56%, and 4.42% on OKX, Binance, and Gate, respectively, with three highly consistent price paths; However, the transaction volume during the same period was only 73%, 78%, and 45% of their respective first-tier long windows. In other words, this is a market with large fluctuations and sustained incremental trading volume, but insufficient volume. I didn't see any new announcements for project verification, so I wouldn't force fluctuations into the result of a single message. Even more interesting is the contract structure. After BICO peaked near 21:45, the price has pulled back, while Binance's perpetual open interest (OI) continued to rise from about 462 million to around 465 million at midnight; meanwhile, at 00:00, the funding rate was about -0.114% on Binance and about -0.375% on OKX. I prefer to understand the first stage as: after a failed rally, new open positions increase significantly, and crowded trading pushes funding rates to extreme negative levels. But this does not mean "the bears have already won." After midnight, the price dropped another 9%, OI 我那个自动抄底机器人,已经连着好几轮一单没开了——它闭嘴的时候,往往比它叫唤的时候更值得听。先看盘面,BTC 现报 62,528,24h -0.93%,F&G 卡在 28 的 Fear,OI 趴在 11.14 万,量还缩了 31.3%,典型没人想动手的死水。看 track 字段更扎心:new_call 是 null,全场就剩 2 笔老仓杵着——我 8 月 2 号开的 ADA 多还浮亏 -1.37%,3 号开的 KAITO 空浮亏 -0.81%,新单一个没发。对 BTC 来说,这不是蓄力是胶着。模型不开新仓,说明波动连触发阈值都没摸到,62,528 这种位置横着,主流压根没增量故事可讲。给你个能拿走的东西——判断"现在该不该动手",看三盏灯:① 信号密度(模型发不发新单):不发=波动不够,你手动硬做就是送;② 广度(6 涨 9 跌):没有共识方向,多空都没底气;③ F&G(卡 28 不恐慌):没人逼空也没人抄底,纯躺平。三盏灯这次全灰,结论就一句——机器闭嘴时,你最该闭嘴。我自己那两笔老单也不敢加,加仓等于在死水里往自己头上泼冷水,等就是了,急个球。真正吓人的不是跌,是连跌的兴趣都没有。市场用"不交易"投票,比任何一根针都诚实——GRVT 再能蹦,也改不了全场 6 涨 9 跌的底色。兄弟们,你们最近那套策略还开新仓吗?还是跟我一样在装死等风来?评论区报报战绩。 #BTC #ETH #量化 #市场情绪 #合约 #自动交易 #OKX星球 #存量博弈 #行情分析 #FOMO $BTC Coinbase Premium Has Been Negative for 77 Consecutive Days—Is No One Buying BTC Anymore? Recently, a piece of data has caught the attention of many traders: the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 77 consecutive days. Many people, upon seeing this data, immediately react: "Is U.S. funds continuously selling BTC?" ” Actually, things aren't that simple. The so-called Coinbase premium refers to the price difference between BTC prices on Coinbase and other international exchanges. Normally, if Coinbase's price is higher, it indicates stronger buying interest in the U.S. market and active institutional inflows; When the premium remains negative, it indicates weak buying interest in the U.S. market, even with some selling pressure. 77 consecutive days of negative data indeed indicate that U.S. funds are currently generally cautious. In a high interest rate environment, repeated rate cut expectations, and macroeconomic uncertainties, many institutions prefer to wait and see rather than aggressively increase their BTC holdings. However, a negative Coinbase premium does not mean the bull market is over. First, more and more institutions are allocating through Bitcoin spot ETFs, and some funds no longer buy and sell BTC directly through Coinbase. As a result, data from a single exchange is becoming less representative of the overall market. Second, the market should analyze ETF fund flows, on-chain data, and stablecoin issuance indicators. If the ETF continues to maintain net inflows, even if Coinbase's premium is negative, it indicates that long-term funds are still positioning; Conversely, if ETF funds flow out simultaneously, it would indicate that the market may be entering a more obvious correction phase. For traders, the Coinbase premium acts more like a "sentiment thermometer" than a "direction forecaster." It reflects the short-term capital sentiment in the U.S. market, rather than being the sole factor determining BTC's future trajectory. What truly determines the next round of market trends will still be global liquidity, whether institutional capital continues to flow in, and changes in Federal Reserve policy. If expectations for future rate cuts heat up and ETF funds accelerate inflows again, even if Coinbase's premium is still negative, BTC still has a chance to strengthen again. Do you think the continued negative Coinbase premium is a temporary wait-and-see by institutions, or is it a gathering move before a new market rally? Feel free to leave your comments and join the discussion.Firefly Trading | US Stock Market Analysis The U.S. and Iran resumed negotiations, international crude oil prices sharply retreated, inflation concerns marginally eased, causing U.S. Treasury yields to decline slightly and market risk appetite to recover. The market showed clear sector differentiation: the Nasdaq led the gains, AI tech growth stocks saw valuation recovery; The energy sector came under pressure as oil prices fell, with funds shifting from safe-haven to growth-oriented sectors. Key reminder: Negotiations have just begun, and Middle East geopolitical news is highly recurring, and the positive news is not sustainable. Market Qualification: A sentiment-driven recovery rally, with no sustained one-sided trend yet. Trading strategy: Do not blindly chase highs; closely monitor oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields in linkage, and strictly control positions.$BTC South Korea's KOSPI plunges 3.28%—will it affect the crypto market? South Korea's KOSPI index fell 3.28% in a single day, drawing widespread attention in Asian markets. Many believe this is just a correction in the Korean stock market, but for the crypto world, it reflects a cooling risk appetite in Asian markets. South Korea has long been one of the most active countries in global cryptocurrency trading, with high retail investor participation and very active trading of BTC, ETH, and popular altcoins. Therefore, when the Korean stock market experiences a sharp correction, it often means some funds begin to reduce their risk exposure, and market sentiment tends to be transmitted to the crypto market. However, a KOSPI decline does not necessarily directly lead to a drop in BTC. What really needs to be watched is whether this adjustment is a localized event in the Korean market or the beginning of a global rise in risk aversion. If only domestic Korean factors are affected, the impact on BTC may be relatively limited; However, if major global markets like US stocks and Japanese stocks weaken simultaneously and funds flow into safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasuries, Bitcoin and Ethereum may face short-term pressure. In addition, there is another noteworthy feature in the Korean market—the "kimchi premium." When investor sentiment in South Korea is high, BTC prices on local exchanges usually exceed those of international markets; When market panic intensifies, the premium on kimchi often narrows rapidly or even turns to a discount, which is also an important indicator for monitoring Asian capital sentiment. For crypto traders, the KOSPI's sharp drop is more like a "risk warning light." A single day's decline cannot determine BTC's future direction, but if Asian stock markets, US stocks, and crypto markets all weaken simultaneously, it indicates that global risk appetite is declining, and short-term trading should be more cautious. Do you think this sharp drop in the Korean stock market is just a short-term correction, or is it the beginning of a new round of global risk asset volatility? Feel free to leave your comments and join the discussion.

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